迈克·豪威尔回归：美元操纵已成定局——黄金、科技与比特币的投资策略

今天的视频由Figure Markets赞助，他们是美国最大的非银行抵押贷款机构，其借贷平台已释放超过150亿美元资金。他们刚刚进一步降低了比特币和以太坊抵押贷款的利率至8.91%（年化利率9.999%），优化了原本已是行业最低的50%贷款价值比固定利率产品。他们还持续创新，最近推出了去中心化MPC托管服务——这是主流贷款机构中唯一提供该服务的平台，并完全取消了利息递延费。你可能会问，什么是MPC去中心化托管？简单来说，这是一个链上比特币或以太坊钱包，通过多重密钥分片保护用户资产免受单一托管方故障的影响。

Today's video is sponsored by Figure Markets, the largest nonbank mortgage lender in The US with over 15,000,000,000 unlocked on their lending platform. They've just lowered rates on their Bitcoin and ETH backed loans even more to 8.91%, which is 9.999% APR, improving their already industry low fixed rate 50% LTV loans. They keep building as well, having also just launched decentralized MPC custody, the only place to get that amongst the major loan providers, and removed interest deferral fees entirely. What is MPC decentralized custody, you might ask? Well, it's a Bitcoin or ETH on chain wallet with multiple key shards to protect you from a single entity custody failure.

你可以随时在独立钱包中查看加密货币所有权，并验证抵押品未被挪用。无论是为购房首付等大额消费融资、投资新机会，还是增持比特币，整个过程都简单透明。立即访问他们的应用或点击下方链接，通过Figr申请比特币抵押贷款。当下关注加密货币的人群比以往任何时候都多，因此从可信渠道获取信息至关重要。这就是为什么我要特别感谢Bitwise对本期节目的赞助。

You can always see your crypto ownership in a segregated wallet and verify your collateral hasn't moved. Whether you're funding a major purchase, like a down payment on a home, investing in new opportunities, or even buying more Bitcoin, makes it straightforward and transparent. Visit their app or click my link below to take out a Bitcoin backed loan with Figr today. More people are paying attention to crypto right now than ever before, so it's important to get your information from the sources you trust. That's why I want to give a big thanks to Bitwise for sponsoring today's episode.

Bitwise管理着超过100亿美元资产，涵盖30多种加密策略，自2017年以来持续深耕这一领域。但真正让他们脱颖而出的是他们的回馈行动——Bitwise会将比特币和以太坊投资所得的部分利润捐赠给开源开发者，这些建设维护我们赖以生存的网络基础设施的幕后英雄。所以选择Bitwise不仅意味着获得专业的加密资产配置，更是在为加密货币的未来发展注入资金。

Bitwise manages over $10,000,000,000 across more than 30 crypto strategies, and they've been doing this since 2017. But here's what really sets them apart. They give back too. Bitwise actually donates part of the profits from its Bitcoin and Ethereum investments to open source developers, the people building and maintaining the networks that we rely on. So when you work with Bitwise, you're not getting just professional crypto exposure, you're helping fund the future of crypto itself.

欢迎访问bitwiseinvestments.com了解详情，或发送邮件至James@bitwiseinvestments.com，提及Rau推荐可获得专属服务。感谢大家！正如你们所知，在本播客中，我始终邀请那些站在宏观加密经济与指数级技术时代交汇处的顶尖嘉宾。如果喜欢我们的节目，您的五星好评将是对我们最大的支持。

Check them out at bitwiseinvestments.com or email James at bitwise investments dot com and tell them Rau sent you. Thanks. Hey, everyone. As you know, on this podcast, I bring the best guests in the world at that nexus of understanding of macro crypto in the exponential age of technology. If you're enjoying the show, a quick five star rating goes a long way.

这有助于我们成长，并持续邀请全球顶尖嘉宾参与对话。非常感谢。大家好，我是拉胡尔·鲍威尔，欢迎来到我的节目《旅人》。正如你们所知，《旅人》是一段探索宏观加密世界与技术指数时代交汇理解的旅程。

It helps us grow and keep these conversations coming with the best guests in the world. Thanks a lot. Hi. I'm Rahul Powell, and welcome to my show, The Journeyman. The Journeyman, as you know, is that journey to the nexus of understanding between macro crypto and the exponential age of technology.

多年前，我提出了一个名为《万物密码》的理论框架。这个涵盖一切的宏观体系是我三十五年来构建的成果，它基于巨大的人口趋势——这些趋势如何导致债务增长，为何整个西方世界加上中日都因相同人口问题卷入其中，以及如何通过货币贬值和流动性管理来滚动债务。债务具有周期性，通常在三到五年间循环，这导致经济和市场（包括加密领域）呈现周期性波动。我们通过全球宏观投资者金融条件指数（领先九个月）等工具预判趋势，并据此导航。

Several years ago, I developed a thesis called The Everything Code. The Everything Code is my all encompassing macro framework that I've built over the thirty five years that builds upon the giant demographic trends, how that leads to a growth in debt, where the entire Western world plus China and Japan have been involved because of the same demographics issues, and how that debt is managed by the debasement of currency and liquidity in order to roll the debt. And how the debt is cyclical, it's generally between a three year and five year time horizon. And why that causes the economy and markets to be cyclical, including crypto, and how to navigate it, and how to get forward read on it. And a forward read on it, we use things like the global macro investor financial conditions index leads by nine months.

我们还使用领先约六个月的全球宏观投资者流动性指数。结合M2等指标，这些工具能提供相当可靠的概率性预判。虽然我们是该体系的开创者，但还有一位你们熟知的先驱者——迈克·豪，他以相似视角观察世界（虽不尽相同），在债务周期分析与全球流动性领域堪称真正的拓荒者。每次迈克做客节目，总是备受观众推崇。

And we also use the global macro investor global liquidity index, which leads by about six months. The and those things in combination with m two and our other indicators give us a really decent probabilistic read on how things play out. Now, we are pioneers of this whole structure, but there's one other person that you know well who also looks at the world for a similar lens. Now, it's not quite the same, but he's truly a pioneer in in this kind of debt cycle analysis and global liquidity, and that's Mike Howe. And Mike is always a firm favorite when he comes.

我们交换笔记，讨论各自观察到的情况。和往常一样，我想你会喜欢这次对话。它会让你清楚地了解事态发展方向、流动性结构、对市场的影响以及对你的资产意味着什么。好了，采访后见。

We swap notes, talk about what we're seeing, what he's seeing. And as ever, I think you're gonna love this conversation. It's gonna give you a really good idea of where things are headed, what the structure of liquidity is, what it means for markets, and what it means for your bags. Alright. I'll see you after the interview.

我是拉胡尔·鲍威尔，邀请你与我共同探索宏观趋势、加密领域和指数时代的全景图。在《旅人》节目中，我将对话全球顶尖智者，让我们共同成长。麦克，很高兴再次在Real Vision见到你。

Join me, Rahul Powell, as I go on a journey of discovery through the macro, crypto, and exponential age landscapes. In The Journeyman, I talk to the smartest people in the world so we can all become smarter together. Mike, great to see you back on Real Vision as ever.

很高兴来到这里，拉尔夫。很享受，非常期待

Well, good to be here, Ralph. Enjoying. Looking forward to

是啊。听着，有很多要讨论的。让我们先从全球流动性的宏观图景开始，根据你的分析框架和理解，我们处于什么位置。然后我们再深入探讨一些区域性问题，因为有很多有趣的事情正在发生。

Yeah. Look. Lots to talk about. Let's start with the global liquidity picture at top level, where we are from your framework, where we are from your understanding. And then we'll Dylan, dig in some of the regional stuff because there's lots of interesting things going on.

今早我看了你关于日本的笔记，那也很有意思。那么从宏观层面看，我们处于流动性周期的哪个阶段？你观察到了什么？

I read your note this morning about Japan. I think that's interesting as well. So at top level, where are we in the liquidity cycle? What are you seeing?

答案是我们已经处于后期阶段。虽然尚未出现下行拐点，仍处于上升期。但别忘了，这个流动性周期已经持续34个月了，按常规标准来看相当成熟了。

Well, the answer is we're late. It's not inflecting downwards yet. We're still in an upswing. But, you know, we gotta remember here that the liquidity cycle's, what, thirty four months old. That's pretty mature, as things go.

我们必须开始考虑终局可能是什么。目前看不到什么必然会导致局势逆转的因素，但问题显然在积累。我认为展望2026年甚至更远时，有几个因素需要考虑。在我看来，最重要的两个因素是：第一，有大量债务需要再融资，因为在新冠危机期间利率为零时，巨额债务实际上被长期化了。

We gotta be thinking of what could be the end game. There's no I don't think there's anything on the horizon that could necessarily disrupt things, but, you know, there are clearly problems building. And I think, you know, as we look into 2026 and probably beyond, I mean, there are factors to think about. And to my mind, I mean, the two biggest factors. I mean, number one is that there's a lot of debt that's gotta be refinanced out there because debt was effectively termed out during the COVID crisis, large amounts when interest rates were zero.

这些资金预计将从今年晚些时候开始回流市场进行再融资，并持续至2627年。我们必须记住，经济强劲并不总是伴随着金融市场繁荣。事实上，美国科技公司目前每天在IT和基础设施上的投资高达十亿美元。在一两年内，这将从市场、特别是货币市场中抽走约一万亿美元。这些数字相当庞大。

And that's coming back into markets to be refinanced really from sort of later this year, but through 2627. And the other thing we must, you know, remember is that, you know, strong economies don't always have strong financial markets. And the fact is that you've got, US tech companies currently investing, what is it, a billion dollars a day in IT and infrastructure. And, you know, over the course of a year or so, couple of years, that's gonna take about a trillion dollars out of markets, out of out of money markets. I mean, these these are big amounts.

因此，这些公司可能表面上利润增长可观，但现金流实际上在急剧下降。这对金融市场来说无疑是个问题。

So these companies may be seeing decent profits growth, but their cash flows are really plunging. And that's gotta be a problem, for financial markets, in particular.

让我们深入探讨当前周期相比以往迟缓的原因。根据我们的研究，流动性周期通常在经济周期顶峰时达到峰值，二者密切相关。而当前经济周期极其低迷，ISM指数持续低于50。

So let's dig in a little bit to the to the slowness of this cycle versus others. From from our work is like, normally, the liquidity cycle peaks around the business cycle peak. You know, they're all, you know, related. And the business cycle has been super low. If you look at the ISM, it's been below 50.

最显著的相关因素是利率长期维持高位，导致ISM指数低于预期，这似乎延长了流动性周期。这是我在观察的第一个因素。第二个因素是资金持续涌入短期票据市场而非五年期再融资领域，维持了这种周期性。我不确定这种结构是否改变了市场特性，因为它需要持续流动性而非周期性流动性。因此，首要关注经济周期与利率，其次要考量发行结构的影响。

The the strongest correlation to that is rates have been too high for too long, and that has kept the ISM lower than expected, which means it feels like it's elongated the liquidity cycle. So that's one factor that I'm looking at. The other one is the fact that they've been shoving everything into the bills market and not refi ing in, let's say, the five year sector that's kept this cyclicality. And I don't know if that structure is changing things because it requires ongoing liquidity as opposed to cyclical liquidity. So firstly, the business cycle and interest rates, and then, you know, whether the structure of where they've been issuing makes a difference.

确实。我认为首要问题是我们似乎失去了经济周期。观察新冠疫情后的各国经济，几乎所有数据都趋于平缓，不存在明显的经济周期。我们可以推测其原因——是财政政策主导的结果吗？无论如何，事实就是如此。但流动性周期确实存在，且显得至关重要。

Yeah. Well, I think the I mean, the first thing is we don't seem to have a business cycle. And if you look at, almost any economy since the COVID crisis, everything's kinda flatlined. So there's there's no obvious business cycle around. And, you know, we can conjecture as to why that may be.

有趣的是，正如你所见证的，金融市场当前并非对实体经济作出反应，而是完全受流动性周期驱动。这就是正在发生的现实。无论我们是否喜欢，理解这个机制已成为市场最关键的课题。

Is it because fiscal policy is dominant? Whatever. But the fact is there's none. There is a liquidity cycle, and that seems to be paramount. And the interesting point is, which I'm sure you'll attest, is that, you know, financial markets are responding not to the real economy.

它们只对流动性周期作出反应——这就是本质所在。我们必须认清这个现实，这已成为当前市场上最核心的问题。我认为这个判断是准确的。

They've responded to the liquidity cycle. That that's what's going on. So we need to understand this, like it or not. I mean, it's become the paramount issue in markets as far as we can see. So I think that's that's true.

我认为你关于票据发行的观点非常关键。我们之前解释这个问题的方式，可以粗略地描述为：你正在经历从美联储量化宽松到财政部量化宽松的转变。财政部基本上在大量发行短期票据，导致市场长期附息债券供应不足，因此没有预期的流动性吸收效应。投资者被迫转向短期债券。

And I think your point that about bill issuance is is really critical. And, you know, the way that we've, sort of, I suppose, explained this before is to say what you're getting is a transition crudely from Fed QE, to Treasury QE. And the Treasury are basically coming in and issuing all the bills. They're starving the market of long dated coupons, so there's not the liquidity absorption that you would expect. People are being forced into the short end.

这主要带来两方面影响：一是市场波动性因此降低。事实上，鉴于财政部近期加大回购计划的力度，他们显然非常希望维持低波动性。二是当短期票据大量发行时，银行会积极购入这类证券，因为它们与存款增长相匹配。

Two things really come from that. I mean, one is that, there is, lower volatility in markets as a result. And in fact, we know the treasury is very keen to actually keep volatility down given the way they've upped these buyback programs. So that's significant. And if you get a lot of bill issuance and short dated note issuance, the banks buy it with alacrity because this is the sort of security the banks like that matches deposit growth.

如果银行持续这种操作，实际上就是在为财政赤字货币化。因此我认为这是中期内流动性趋势性增长的路径。政府必须找到融资方式，而通过这种机制无疑是最佳选择。

And if the banks are doing that, they're effectively monetizing the deficit. So I think that's the route to a trend increase in liquidity over the medium term. We know governments basically have to find ways to fund themselves, and what better, through this mechanism.

你认为这会阻止他们在长期端发行债券吗？还是说只是推迟到利率下降前的过渡阶段？我们稍后会讨论这个问题。但这是否会成为持续性的结构转变？因为短期票据发行感觉像是持续刺激措施，可能会改变整个周期。

And do you think that this stops them issuing, at the longer end, or is it just a delayed process until they can get rates lower? And we'll come into that in a little bit. But is this a structural change that's gonna ongoing? And because it's bills that that feels like ongoing stimulus, and it might change this whole cycle.

我认为答案是：这种情况会持续，直到无法持续为止。历史经验表明这类操作往往以通胀恶化告终，上世纪七十年代就是明证。只要条件允许就会继续，最终必将因通胀担忧被迫停止。现在他们正竭力通过各种手段掩盖通胀真相——我们永远无法确定真实通胀率。

Well, I think the answer is that it's, it continues until it doesn't. And the fact is we know that these things always end badly because they tend to end in inflation. And that's the experience we've had in the nineteen seventies. So it's gonna go on as long as it, as long as it does, and then it will be forced to stop presumably by concerns over infl an inflation pickup. Now I think everything they're doing is trying to bury that inflation news by whatever means, fair means or foul, we're never too sure what the inflation rate is.

我始终注意到一个现象：个人感受到的通胀率总是远高于CPI数据。显然存在大量数据操纵。但资产市场的膨胀实际上正在验证货币通胀的现实。正如我们所知，货币通胀不是周期性的，而是趋势性的——且这个趋势正在加速。

And I'm always, you know, instructed by the fact that, you know, one's personal inflation rate is always way way above what you read in the CPI. So there's obviously a lot of manipulation going on anyway. But the fact is you've got inflating asset markets, is really testing for testing for the fact that you've got, strong monetary inflation. And monetary inflation is not just a cycle as we know. It's a trend, and that trend is accelerating.

我认为世界尚未充分意识到：新冠疫情后情况已发生巨变。我们身处货币通胀、货币贬值的新时代。正如我反复强调的，这不是金融压制，而是更糟糕的情况——实质性的货币通胀。

And I think what the world doesn't realize is that the things have changed dramatically since COVID. We're a world of monetary inflation, monetary debasement. It's not, as I keep stressing, it's not one of financial repression. It's one actually, more it's worse than that. It's actually monetary inflation.

你必须开始思考如何在货币通胀的世界中进行投资。

And you've got to start thinking about how to invest in the monetary inflation world.

是的。而且，你知道，我们俩的假设是，长期资产在这种环境下往往表现非常好。我们在科技股和加密货币上已经看到了这一点。黄金在这种环境下表现得很好，正如它应该的那样。所有的迹象都表明货币贬值正在进行，而且不会消失。

Yeah. And, you know, and both of our hypothesis is, you know, long duration assets tend to do very well in that environment. And we've seen that with technology stocks and crypto. Gold has acted very well in this environment as it should do. And all the signs are there that the debasement is ongoing and it's not going to go away.

对我来说，有趣的一点是，显然特朗普和贝森专注于他们能对美联储做些什么。你知道，那些关于更换主席和各种董事会成员的把戏。显然，他们想看看是否能迫使利率降低。我个人认为，相对于GDP或任何实际利率指标，利率太高了，而且利率还有下降200个基点的空间，这让他们可以再次进行再融资。你对美联储董事会的这些把戏有什么看法？

One of the things that is interesting to me is obviously, Trump and Besson are focused on what they can do with the Federal Reserve. The you know, the the shenanigans around changing the governor and various board members. Clearly, they want to see if they can force interest rates lower. I think personally, interest rates are too high versus GDP or whatever real interest rate measure you look at, and that there's room for rates to come down 200 basis points, which allows them to refinance again. Any thoughts on on the kind of Fed board shenanigans?

是的。我是说，我足够愤世嫉俗，不认为这真的有多大关系。我的意思是，归根结底，我不认为美联储真的能控制利率，尤其是整个曲线的利率。实际上是相反的。长期利率往往驱动美联储，而不是反过来。

Yeah. I mean, I I'm cynical enough not to think it really matters too much. I mean, at the end of the day, I don't think the Federal Reserve really controls interest rates certainly across the curve. I mean, it's rather the other way around. Long term rates tend to drive the Fed rather than the rather than vice versa.

所以，你知道，最终你得说，好吧，长期债券的公允价值是多少？那最终必须与名义GDP增长相关。所以你在谈论的是大约5%的水平，然后你取短期和长期之间的正常利差。你知道，大概是125个基点。

So, you know, ultimately, you've gotta say, well, okay, what's the what's the fair value for the long term bond? And that has to be related to nominal GDP growth ultimately. So you're talking of something like about 5%, and then you take what is a normal spread between the short end and the long end. What is it? You know, a 125 basis points.

所以这给了你联邦基金利率的基准。所以他们在这方面能做的并不多，他们可以在针尖上跳舞，提出他们的预测。但实际上，我认为联邦公开市场委员会没有那么大的影响力。在我看来，它更像是一个信号工具。更重要的是他们的资产负债表，他们在那里做了什么。

So that gives you your benchmark for fed funds. So there's not much they can do sort of hide the side of that, and they can dance on the head of a pin and come out with their, you know, their projections. But in reality, the FOMC doesn't have that much sway, I don't think. It's really a signaling tool more than anything else, as far as I can see. What matters more is is really the balance sheet, what they're doing there.

是的。我是说，虽然另一方面，我们都预期在某个时候会出现某种形式的收益率曲线控制，仅仅因为债务再融资机制。有趣的一点是，我今天早上才读到，美联储法案中有一些变化，可能允许他们不支付银行储备金的利息，这将迫使资金进入债券市场。这感觉像是一种间接的收益率曲线控制方式，通过迫使银行进一步延长投资期限。这一点有没有考虑进去？

Yeah. I mean, although the other side of this is we're all kind of expecting yield curve control in some way, shape, or form at some point just because of the debt refinancing mechanism. And one of the things that's interesting is and I only read about this this morning that there is some changes in the Federal Reserve Act that may allow them not to pay interest on bank reserves, which would force it into the bond market. That feels like, you know, a backhanded way of yield curve control by forcing banks to go further out the curve. Does that factor in at all?

是的，有可能。我是说，我认为这种情况很多。你看，所有这些他们正在安排的事情，无论是取消补充流动性比率（SLR），还是改变压力测试规则，所有这些实际上都是在试图让银行有更多能力购买政府债务。而我们都知道，最终这就是货币通胀中常发生的情况。

Yeah. It could be. I mean, I think there's a there's a lot of it. You know, all these things that they're lining up, you know, whether it be a, you know, elimination of the of the SLR, the supplementary liquidity ratio, you know, whether it's changing stress test rules, all these things are really trying to get banks, give the banks more capacity to buy government debt. And we know ultimately this is, you know, this is what tends to happen in a monetary inflation.

银行往往会介入购买政府债券，然后他们将赤字货币化。这就是融资的途径。问题是我们会多快到达那一步，或者说我们多快到达那一步后，通胀真正成为问题。我认为长期来看他们可能能够压低通胀。而且我认为这个等式中有很多因素，比如人工智能，这可能会压低消费者价格。

Banks tend to come in and buy government bonds, then they monetize the deficit. And that that's the route that's the route to, to funding. The question is how quickly we are we gonna get there, or how quickly we get there and inflation really becomes the the issue. I think they can probably push inflation down over the longer term. And I think there's a lot of factors in there in the equation as you will know, things like AI, which are probably gonna depress consumer prices.

但归根结底，让这一切变得非常令人困惑的是，零售通胀与货币通胀非常不同。你可以在强烈的货币通胀背景下，但由于成本通缩、生产率提升或廉价中国商品的存在，零售业在一段时间内受影响较小。最终，投资者必须围绕货币通胀和货币贬值进行投资，而不是他们在零售业看到的情况，但这种情况最终会在零售业显现出来。

But at the end of the day, what makes all this very confusing in a way is that high street inflation is very different from monetary inflation. And you can have a background of strong monetary inflation, but because you get, you know, cost deflation, otherwise, productivity wins or cheap Chinese goods, the high street's less affected for some time. And, ultimately, investors have got to invest about around monetary inflation, the debasement of the currency, much more than, what they're seeing in the high street, but it will come through in the high street at some stage.

是的。而且通常当商业周期回升时也会出现这种情况，如果它确实回升的话，我认为会的。另一个让我觉得有趣的是美联储和财政部在管理贬值方式上的转变。最初只是通过资产负债表，然后大家都明白了这个游戏，接着变成了美联储净流动性的游戏。现在又转向了我们所谓的总流动性，包括私营部门，因为他们现在正在利用银行作为债务货币化的主要机制。

Yeah. And it usually comes up as the business cycle picks up as well if it if it does pick up, which I I think it does. The other thing that's that's been interesting to me is the shift in how the Fed and the Treasury have kind of managed the debasement. It started simply with the balance sheet, then everyone figured out that game, and then it turned into this Fed net liquidity game. And now it's gone to what we look as total liquidity, which is including the private sector because they're now using the banks as their main mechanism of debt monetization.

这对你有意义吗？

Does that make sense to you?

完全有道理。绝对有。我是说，如果你需要的话，我可以展示一些图表。

Makes complete sense. Absolutely. I mean, I can put up some charts if you if you want me to to

好的。很好。

Yeah. Good.

展示什么

Demonstrate what

一直很喜欢这张图表。

Always love the chart.

关于我们当前处于周期中的哪个阶段，这是我们的流动性周期，可以追溯到上世纪六十年代。这里的正弦波是我们大约二十年前，也就是2000年左右拟合的，用来展示这个五到六年的周期，我认为这与你们看到的四年周期有所不同。但没错，这是基于对流动性数据的分析得出的。那么我们现在处于这个周期的早期还是晚期？你可以看到这条黑色虚线代表正常周期。

So in terms of where are we in the cycle, this is our liquidity cycle, which goes right back to the nineteen sixties. And the sine wave there is, something that we fitted back about, actually, about twenty years ago in the year 2000 to show you've got this five to six year cycle, which is, I think, different to the way that you see it in terms of a four year cycle. But, yeah, this is this is based on the on an analysis of of the of this liquidity data. Now how early or late are we in this cycle? Well, you can see that this is the normal cycle, the dotted black line.

最低点是周期的谷底，红线表示我们当前的位置。所以看起来我们处于晚期。我的意思是，我们必须承认这点。我们处于周期后期，并不意味着即将结束，但我们必须意识到我们更接近终点而非起点，这显然是个重要因素。

The low point is the is the trough of the cycle, and the red line is where we are now. So this this looks late. I mean, we gotta we gotta accept that. It's we're late in the cycle. It doesn't mean it's about to end, but we gotta we gotta know we're nearer the end than we are at the beginning, and that's clearly an important factor.

现在

Now

顺便问下，你认为什么时候会结束？我的观点是这个周期被延长了。通常应该在今年年底结束，但感觉会推迟到明年第二季度。

When do think it when do you think it finishes, by the way? My my view is it's been extended. It normally would have finished sometime this end of this year, but it feels like it's gonna push out into q two next year.

是的。如果回顾这个周期，我们大概会预测膨胀期将出现在2026年初左右。现在这张图表是我用来做类比参考的——是否存在类似的周期？我认为八十年代可能是个参照基准，无论对错。那时有广场协议，你知道的，还有马阿拉歌协议。

Yeah. I mean, that's that's almost exactly where if I go back to looking at the cycle, that's where we would sort of suggest it's probably gonna inflate sometime around about early, 2026, thereabouts. Now this chart is the one I use as a parallel to say, you know, is there a similar cycle that you can think of? And I think back to the eighties as maybe being the the benchmark, rightly or wrongly. You had the Plaza Accord, you know, Ditto, the Mar A Lago Accord.

当时通胀率持续攀升。债券市场收益率逐步走高。大宗商品价格开始飙升。随后崩盘几乎被触发——我年纪足够大还记得这一幕——导火索是德国表态考虑加息，这让当时的财政部长贝克慌了神，因为美国当时正极力主张降息。

You had rising inflation. You had bond markets, yields edging up. You had commodity prices beginning to boom. And then you had the crash, which was pretty much triggered. I'm old enough to remember it, but, it was triggered by the Germans saying they were thinking about raising interest rates, which spooked, treasury secretary Baker at the time because The US were really angling for lower rates, now.

接着，正如俗话所说，局面彻底失控，市场投资者意识到流动性周期即将逆转，而这正是后来发生的事。如图所示，我们现在距离那个阶段可能还有足足六个月。所以请持续关注，但我们必须对这些因素保持警惕。现在回到你关于国债的问题——我随时可以调出这些图表——当前国库券市场究竟发生了什么？

And then, you know, the proverbial, you know, s h one t hit the hit the fan, and market, investors realized that the liquidity cycle was about to reverse, and that's what happened. Now we could easily be, as this diagram says, you know, a good six months away from that. So, you know, watch this space, but we gotta be alert to those to those factors. Now to come to your point about and I can always come back to these charts. You know, what's what's happening in terms of the treasury?

这是我们分析得出的当前系统内货币刺激来源构成。图表将之分解为三类：首先是传统量化宽松（红色区域），即通过美联储的SOMA账户扩张资产负债表来刺激经济——疫情期间他们大量使用了这种手段；其次是我们戏称为'非QE式QE'的后门刺激（橙色区域），包括财政部一般账户、银行定期融资计划、银行利息支付亏损以及逆回购计划缩减等项目。

This is what we reckon is going on in terms of the sources of of monetary stimulus in the system. And what this diagram breaks down is three different categories. One is conventional plain vanilla QE, which is, you know, using the SOMA accounts at the Fed, in other words, expanding the balance sheet to stimulate, which they clearly did a lot of in COVID, and that's the red area. You've also got, if you like, the backdoor stimulus, which is what we loosely or flippantly called not QEQE, which is the hidden QE, which is things like the treasury general account, the bank term funding program, the losses that they're making on interest payments to the banks, and the reverse repo program rundown. That's the orange bid.

现在这些手段基本耗尽。除非他们决定从量化紧缩（QT）重新转向量化宽松（QE），否则目前已经用尽。黑色区域则是我们所说的'国债QE'，其本质是通过将发行债务的期限从长期转向短期来实现。关键在于：流动性约等于资产除以久期——因此当私营部门资产的平均久期缩短时，流动性必然改善。

Now you see those things are kind of exhausted. I mean, they can they can revive if they decide to change, from QT again to QE, but at the moment, they're spent. And then what you've got is the black area, which is what we called treasury QE, and that really comes by shifting the duration of issuance, from longer dated debt to shorter dated instruments. And the reason that's important is that, you know, very crudely, we tend to think that liquidity is equal to an asset divided by its duration. So if you're reducing the average duration or maturity of assets out there in the private sector, you must, by definition, be improving liquidity.

黑色区域反映的就是国库券和短期债务大规模发行的冲击（相对于中长期债券）。可以看出其影响正在显现——虽然当前刺激力度有所减弱（这或许能解释经济疲软），但后续还会回升。

And the black area is the impact of this big issuance or wave of issuance of bills and short dated debt, you know, through the treasury calendar, as opposed to coupons. So you can see it's becoming material. There's a little bit of a lull right now in terms of that stimulus, which may explain why the economy is soft, but it does pick up.

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这正是此处的关键所在。正如我刚才强调的，事实是银行尤其青睐这类资产，稳定币发行商亦是如此。他们偏好短期债务和票据。但任何信贷提供方购买政府债务——无论何种形式，尤其短期债务——本质上都是货币化过程。这张图表展示了美国商业银行持有的国债与机构证券增长量，与常规周度货币供应增速的对比关系。

And that's why this this is a critical point. Now as I as I stressed a second ago, the fact is that banks in particular love this stuff, and so as it happens, do stablecoin issuers. They like short dated debt, and they like bills. But if any credit provider, buys government debt in whichever shape or form, but they particularly like short dated stuff, it's monetization. And this chart here is looking at the growth of treasury and agency securities among commercial banks in The US relative to this conventional weekly money supply growth.

可见国债等政府债务增速显著加快，这表明他们在将财政赤字货币化。这正是当前货币增长的主要来源。

And you can see that there's been this big acceleration in the growth of, treasuries, government debt, which is telling you they're monetizing the deficit. That's the main source of of monetary growth right now.

众所周知，流动性博弈是全球性的，不仅限于美国。您今早撰文提及中国，我也一直在观察中国动向，感觉中国似乎也在加大刺激计划力度。

Now as we know, the liquidity game is a global game. It's not just The US. You wrote this morning about China. I've been looking at China. It feels that China's picking up its stimulus program as well.

没错。我稍后会展示...我是说...关于日本还有个要点可以讨论。好的，我们可以先...

Yeah. I'll I'll show you the I mean, the I'll I'll come back to the the there's a point about Japan, which I can come back to. Yeah. Well, we can go

那就直接讨论日本吧，既然您接下来要谈日本，之后我们再讨论中国，因为日本的动向也很有意思。

to Japan straight, then we can go to China if if you're next on Japan because that was interesting as well.

我是说，我认为这是一个值得深思的问题。我不会断言自己绝对正确，但这确实值得人们思考。在日本，收益率明显上升。这张图表展示的是十年期收益率，即橙色线。虚线则是我们剔除日本此前实施的QQE或收益率曲线控制等各类政策限制后，对公允价值的估算。

The I mean, I think this is a a point to ponder. I'm not gonna say I'm right on this, but I think it's a it's a point for people to ponder. Is that what you've got in Japan is clearly rising yields. And this chart is illustrating the ten year yield, and that's the orange line. And the dotted line is our estimate of fair value without all the various encumbrances of, of what what was then Japan called QQE or yield curve control, all these factors.

这实际上就是日本长期债券或十年期债券的走向。收益率上升的压力显然让投资者感到不安，因为他们会说，看吧，1987年股灾要重演了。债券收益率上升将再次扼杀股市反弹。当然，这有可能发生。但如果你拆解期限溢价——这是个更专业的术语——它在理解债券时极为重要，因为它显示了主权政府债务的风险溢价。

So that's where effectively the Japanese long bond or the ten year bond is is heading to. And that rising pressure on yields is clearly something spooking investors right now because they say, you know, here we are, 1987 crash will redo. We're gonna get another episode of rising bond mark rising bond yields, which scupper the equity rally. Well, that's possible, of course. But then if you disaggregate, term premium, which are a lower wonkish concept, are invaluable when you're when you're understanding bonds because it shows the risk premium on, on a sovereign government debt.

这张图表将日本的期限溢价分解为三个渠道。红线（变动最显著的部分）代表超长期债券，接近三十年期限。自图表起始点以来，这条线急剧攀升。另外两条线则分别代表中期和短期日本国债的风险溢价或期限溢价。我之所以这样区分，是因为如果观察英国或法国等可比经济体，你会发现这三个期限溢价部分都在同步上升——无论你称之为协调还是失调。

What this chart here is doing is disaggregating term premium in Japan, into three different channels. The red line, which is the one that's really been moving, is the ultra long term bond, so nearer the thirty year tenor. So that's been shooting up, right, I mean, dramatically since that graph started. And then the other two lines are looking at medium and short term JGB risk premium, or term premium. Now the reason that I'm making this distinction is that if you look to the comparative economy like Britain or France, to name names, you'd see all three segments of term premium moving up together in sort of harmony or disharmony, whatever way you'd like put it.

因为实际上，各类投资者都在全线抛售政府债券，以规避主权风险。但日本的情况截然不同——只有超长期债券遭到大规模抛售。这不正是从债券转向股票的信号吗？因为这类债券本质上是股票的替代品，所以人们实际上在说：

Because effectively, investors right across the curve of all stripes are dumping government debt because they don't want the sovereign risk. In Japan, something really different's going on. It's only the ultra long term debt that's really being seriously dumped. And isn't that a switch from bonds into equities? Because that type of debt is really a substitute for equities, and so people are just saying, look.

听着，日本现在出现通胀了。长期债券市场的财富将被摧毁，所以我们得转投股票。

Hey. We've got inflation now in Japan. We're gonna be destroyed. Wealth's gonna be destroyed in the bond markets, the long term bond markets. So let's switch into equities.

而众所周知，这恰与日本股市的大幅上涨同步发生。

And that, as we know, is coincided with a big rally in the Japanese stock market.

为什么日本当局会容忍这种情况？关键在于：日本人在货币政策管理上非常精明，他们对此了如指掌，并且引领全球实践。他们允许这种情况发生自有道理——并非无力阻止。

Why are the Japanese tolerating it? Because that's the one thing is, look, the Japanese are very smart in how they manage their monetary policy. They understand this inside and out, and they've led the world in doing this. They're allowing this to happen for a reason. It's not like they can't stop it.

他们知道如何阻止这种情况。所以现在这是有意为之。要么是他们想让资金流入股市，要么是出于某些人口结构原因或其他因素，他们允许超长期利率上升。你有什么具体看法吗？

They know how to stop it. So it's happening on purpose now. One is they want it to flow into the equity market or b, you know, the there's some demographic reason or whatever that they're they're allowing the super long end to to rise. Any particular thoughts?

嗯，我想你可以反过来问，如果存在严重的通胀问题，他们为什么不收紧货币政策？我认为可以从两方面解释。一是他们实际上希望有一定通胀，因为这显然不仅有助于经济重启、刺激消费，还能减轻部分债务负担。别忘了从政府角度看，适度通胀是有利的。

Well, I mean, I suppose you could I mean, I would turn around and say, what why aren't they tightening monetary policy if there if there's a serious inflation problem? And I think you could you could tackle that in two ways. One to say they actually want some inflation because clearly that would actually help them, not just, you know, get the economy maybe moving again, get spending, up, but it would also, get rid of some of the debt burden. So let's not forget there is a a positive in a higher inflation from a government's point of view. So I think there's that argument.

另一个解释可能更偏向阴谋论，但我个人比较认同：日本实际上正受到美国财政部的施压要求放松货币政策。我认为这背后有明显的逻辑——他们想要日元贬值。尽管看似有强劲的外资流入，但日元在这段时间始终未能有效反弹。这很大程度上是在向中国集体施压，就像我两年前提出的'上海协议2.0'概念，即通过主动大幅贬值日元来制约中国。

I think the other one, is maybe more conspiratorial, but it's one that I quite like, is that actually the Japanese are being, told to ease monetary policy by the US treasury. And I think there's a distinct line going on here, which is basically saying they want a they want a weak yen. The yen has sort of refused to barge or rally through this period despite what seemed to be strong foreign inflows. And I think a lot of that is to say we're we're trying to put pressure or collectively put pressure on China. And, you know, you go back to what I was what I called, back a couple of years ago Shanghai Accord Two, which was what I then thought was happening in 2022, which was a deliberate attempt to hold China's feet to the fire by deliberately, weakening the yen aggressively.

这种做法给中国的金融体系带来了巨大压力。所以我认为当前情况可能与此有关。不过说实话，我们无法确知这些事的真相。

And that put a lot of pressure on the Chinese to, you know, on their financial system. So I think there's a lot of that going on. So maybe it's to do with that. But, you know, I don't know. I mean, we don't really know the truth in all these things.

这个长期债券市场的规模有多大？会不会是他们根本不在意这个规模太小的市场，想让它随时间推移逐渐失去重要性，转而重点管理收益率曲线的前端？

What's the size of this the long term, JJW? Is it? Maybe it's just too small that they just don't care and that they want to kind of, you know, let that market reduce in importance over time and manage it at that at the tighter end of of the curve.

有可能。但根据数据来看，红线显示十年期及以上所有长期债券的发行量其实相当大。目前遭遇抛售的主要是那些超长期债券——我想强调的是受影响的并非中短期债券，虽然它们也受到了一定波及。

Yeah. It could be. But I to be fair to the data here, what we look look the the, red line is looking at actually right across the long edge of anything from ten years and above. So there's a quite a lot of issuance there. But it is those longer dated issues that are really selling off, and that's what I'm trying to trying to make the point that it's not it's not the mid duration or short duration stuff that that's being affected, and it's being affected to some extent.

但差距非常悬殊。这种利差差异表明，问题更多出在需求端而非供给端因素。

But it's nothing. Like, the gap is huge. And that differential, I think, tells you it's more about demand than supply factors.

日本是否在大量发行长期债券？还是并非如此？

And are the Japanese issuing a lot of long end stuff? Or is it just Not

并不特别多。没有。

not particularly. No.

所以这不是供应过剩？

So it's not excess supply?

不是。但这是一种需求特征。

No. It's but it's a it's a demand feature.

是需求啊。超级有趣。我想这也是日本股市上涨的原因之一，正如你所说。是的，我也这么认为。

It's a demand. Super interesting. And that's one of the reasons, I guess, the Japanese stock market goes up as well, as you say. Yeah. I think so.

你今天早上在笔记里提到。我认为这是个关键点，因为你用一种长期资产替换另一种前景更好的长期资产。

You you wrote in a note this morning. I think that's a that's a key thing because you switch the long duration asset for another long duration asset that is a is a better prospect, I guess.

是的。我觉得完全正确。我是说，对于温和通胀，股票看起来相当不错。但如果是高通胀，它们就不那么好了，你会想要实物资产。

Yeah. I think absolutely right. I mean, certainly for mild inflation, equities look pretty good. If you get always get high inflation, they're not so good. You want real assets.

但你要知道，这就是你得到的结果。而在中国，可以说正面临相反的极端情况——虽然仍处于债务通缩中，但正在复苏。图中橙色线代表中国十年期国债收益率，走势相对平缓，但似乎正向上突破，这很关键。我认为这里传达的信息是：并非所有债券收益率上升都必然是坏事。

But, you know, this is the this is what you're getting. And in China, you've got, if you like, the opposite extreme, which is basically saying we're they're still in debt deflation, but they are emerging. This is looking at the Chinese ten year bond in orange, the yield. So that's kind of flat learning, but it looks to be breaking upwards, which is important. And I think the message here is that, you know, not all increases in bond yields are necessarily bad.

如果反映经济复苏或货币通胀的到来，收益率上升也可能带来积极影响。其他资产类别可能因此受益。黑色线显示的是中国的期限溢价。通常我们会将期限溢价下降解读为：市场对安全资产需求旺盛，投资者涌入政府债券推高价格、压低收益率，从而导致期限溢价收窄。

They can be good aspects to a rising bond yield if it's reflecting some sort of economic recovery or monetary monetary inflation coming through. You know, some other assets can get a lift from that. And the the black line is looking at the term premier in China. Now normally, you'd you'd view a falling term premier, as basically saying there's a big demand for safe assets that investors are piling into government debt, bidding prices up and pushing yields down. And hence, the, the term premier starts to drop.

这确实是2024年以来市场的主旋律。但最近可以看到期限溢价趋于平缓，甚至可能出现突破。这很重要，因为背景是中国央行正在向金融体系注入流动性——这是理解当前形势的关键。这些流动性正迫使投资者撤离政府债券等安全资产，转向股票等风险资产。

And that's really been the story, you know, over that over that period since the 2024. But you can see lately that there's been a flat learning and maybe even a breakout of that term premier. And that's important because as background, what the what the Chinese are doing is that adding liquidity into their systems. And I think that's, you know, that's a critical thing to to understand. And that liquidity is forcing investors out of safe assets, government bonds, into riskier assets like equities.

这张偏离主题的图表揭示了问题本质。与传统经济叙事相反，我们认为真正重要的是债务流动性比率（而非债务GDP比率）。说实话，我一直不明白债务GDP比率的衡量意义。但债务流动性比率是真实的，因为债务需要再融资。如果金融体系缺乏足够流动性或资产负债表容量，再融资就无法完成。

Now if you look at this chart, which is maybe a a step to the side, it shows what the issue is. Now in our view, contrary sort of a, sort of the conventional economic narrative, what really matters is the debt liquidity ratio, not the debt GDP ratio. I've never really understood what the debt GDP ratio measures to be truthful. But the debt liquidity ratio is real because debt has to be refinanced. And if you don't have enough liquidity or balance sheet capacity in the financial sector, you can't refinance.

当债务流动性比率过高时，就会爆发金融危机，或至少导致经济和金融体系步履蹒跚。这正是中国近年来的处境——债务流动性比率长期畸高。人们都注意到债务问题，却忽视了流动性同样紧张的事实。这本质上源于中国试图维持强势人民币汇率，并在此基础上收紧流动性。

Now if you have high ratios of debt to liquidity, you get financial crises or certainly stumbling, economies and stumbling financial systems. And that's what China has really been through in the last few years. It's had way too high a debt liquidity ratio. Everyone recognizes the debt part, but they don't really see that actually the liquidity has been quite scarce as well. And that's really been a function of the fact that Chinese have been trying to, you know, match a strong dollar, and they've been tightening liquidity on that basis.

这种做法导致了经济困境。要降低债务流动性比率，有两种途径：要么债务违约——但这几乎不可能发生。

But that's caused them, you know, economic, woe. And what they need to do is to get that debt liquidity ratio down. Well, you can do it two ways. You can default the debt. Well, fat chance of that happening.

要么扩大流动性——这正是他们当前采取的措施。需要结合背景理解这点，下一张图表显示中国货币市场的流动性增长情况。这本质上是中国人民银行的资金传导渠道（需注意中国数据存在显著的季节性特征）。

Or what you can do is to expand liquidity. And that's really what they're doing. So you gotta think about put this in context, and this is showing the next chart is showing the growth of liquidity going through Chinese money markets. This effectively is the conduit from the PBOC, the People's Bank. And Chinese data is notoriously seasonal.

我在此所做的是观察逐年变化，以便让你对当前情况有所了解。数据显示，截至2025年的这些同比变化中，明显存在刺激措施在发挥作用，这与上海市场的强劲反弹几乎同步。因此，这种推动力正在显现，我认为这非常重要。

So what I've done here is look at year on year changes to give you some sense as to what's going on. But it shows that there's a clear stimulus underway, as of, you know, these year on year changes as of 2025, and that's pretty much coincident with the rally, the strong rally in the Shanghai market. So you're getting the this impetus coming through, which I think is very significant.

如果按同比百分比变化而非人民币绝对值变化来看，差异会很大吗？因为随着时间的推移，它可能看起来更戏剧化。

Change much if you do year on year, in terms of percentage change as opposed to RMB change? Because it can also it

可以这样看

can look

随着时间的推移会更明显。

more dramatic over time.

是的。我的意思是，你可以这样看吗？这些是具体的计划。这是对中国的细分分析。你可以看到它们的效果。

Yeah. You can I mean, look at it this way? I mean, it's these are the programs. This is breaking down China. You can see they you can see the effect.

如果是百分比，你或许可以据此计算出百分比变化。这里展示的是中国人民银行通过各种计划注入中国货币市场的资金流动。包括回购操作、新计划（黑色区域标注的直接逆回购）、中期借贷便利，以及人民银行整体的流动性投放。你能看到这些如何累积，但显然有事情正在发生。

So if it was a percentage, you can work out the percentage change from this probably. What this is showing is the various programs and the flows of money that are going through Chinese money markets from the PBOC. So you've got, their repo, purchases, the new program, which is the black area called the outright reverse repo. You've got medium term lending, and you've got overall PBOC liquidity injections. And you can see how that's built up, but it I mean, it's pretty clear that something's going on.

他们在2023年左右曾短暂尝试过，但由于人民币疲软而逐步退出。现在他们又重新启动了。我认为这种疲软...

They had a brief attempt at that in sort of '23, but they phased it off because of the weakness in the yuan. And now they've they've kept going again. So I think that weak the weak

美元让每个人都有能力刺激经济。

dollar allows everybody to stimulate.

没错，完全正确。看看欧洲，我是说，情况一模一样。那么，你知道的，最终目标是什么？

Yeah. Absolutely. Look at Europe. I mean, that's exactly the same thing. So, you know, what's the endgame here?

长期来看，我们用橙色线表示的中国流动性指数某种程度上揭示了最终目标，这里展示了我们的预测。但它与商品价格走势同步呈现——我们用黑色线表示CRB指数的年度变化，虚线则是不含能源产品的CRB指数，以确保其普遍适用性。这表明如果中国持续大规模刺激（虚线代表延续趋势），商品市场应该会走强。

The endgame is sort of shown here with our index of Chinese liquidity over the long term in orange, and that's showing with projections, the projection we put in. But it's it's chartered alongside commodity prices where we put the CRB index, annual change in black, and the dotted line is the CRB without energy products just to make sure it's you know, there's there's there's general truth there. So that seems to show that if you get this big Chinese stimulus continuing, and the dotted line is showing the continuation, that should mean that you get stronger commodity markets.

是的。这意味着商业周期将回暖，因为中国由于长期处于债务通缩，已缺席全球经济方程式一段时间了。

Yeah. Which suggests a business cycle pickup because China's been missing from the economic equation of the world for a while now because it's been in a debt deflation.

我完全同意。从资产配置、市场表现或流动性角度来看，当前都是非常正常的周期。反常的其实是商业周期本身。

I think absolutely. Yeah. Absolutely. And so if you go back to, you know, where we are, this is a very normal cycle in in that from a asset allocation point of view, from an a market point of view, from a liquidity standpoint, everything's normal. What's abnormal is the business cycle.

对。为了全面起见，我们还没讨论日本在流动性方面的举措。我们谈过债券市场本身，日本是在增加流动性、保持中性还是怎样？这方面情况如何？

Yeah. So just just for completeness sake, we didn't talk about what Japan is doing in liquidity terms. We talked about the bond market itself. Is Japan adding liquidity, neutral liquidity? Where are we on that?

总体而言是在扩张，这点可以肯定。虽然不如之前强劲，但趋势是上升的。我们通常认为流动性有两个组成部分：一是观察央行的操作，二是私营部门的资金流动。

Well, generally, it it's expanding. I mean, that that's for sure. It's not it's, it's been stronger, but, you know, generally, it's going up. I mean, we tend to think of there being two components in liquidity. One is looking at, at what what the central bank is doing, and the other is what's coming out of the private sector.

中央银行似乎仍在注入相当规模的流动性。相对而言，私营部门的表现则不那么强劲，这主要受两个因素影响。一是银行业，日本的银行贷款开始略有回升；二是企业部门的现金流，由于中国经济疲软，这部分目前普遍笼罩在阴霾之下。可以说，日本如今越来越像是中国经济的附属品或衍生品。

The central bank still seems to be injecting decent amounts of liquidity. What, you know, what is, is less strong is, is the private sector, and that is largely a function of two things. I mean, one is the banks. Bank lending is beginning to pick up a a tad in Japan, but the other thing is is the cash flow of the corporate sector, which is largely under a cloud because of the weaker Chinese economy. And Japan is now more and more sort of adjunct of, or warrant, if you like, on the Chinese economy.

中国经济放缓，加之全球关税影响的冲击，都在一定程度上削弱了日本企业的现金流。当然这种情况未来可能改变，但当前形势就是如此。日本的流动性状况看起来相当不错——放眼全球，欧洲、日本和美国的流动性环境其实大同小异，都处于强劲扩张阶段。

So a slower Chinese economy, and, obviously, the tariff impacts generally in the world are putting a sunning, to some extent, cash flow of Japanese corporates. So, you know, that that could clearly change, but for the moment, that's where we are. Chinese mean, sorry, Japanese liquidity looks pretty good. You know, if you look at, if you look generally at the world, liquidity conditions in Europe, in Japan, and in The US are pretty much much of a much less. They're they're all expanding pretty strongly.

正如你正确指出的，过去几年间欧洲和日本已大幅追赶上来，近期弱势美元更助推了这一进程。

Europe and Japan have caught up a lot, in the last couple of years, and they've caught up recently because of the weaker dollar, as you rightly say.

而且它们都面临相同的债务再融资问题。大家都在同一条船上——同样面临人口老龄化、债务问题，因此都不得不在这个全球周期中设法应对。游戏规则已是众人皆知。

And they've all got the same debt refinance issue. I mean, everyone's in the same boat. Correct. They've all got the same aging demographics, the same debt issue, and so they're all having to manage it in this kind of global cycle. Everyone kind of knows the game.

法国和英国到底发生了什么？那些报道实在令人震惊，虽然可能有些耸人听闻——比如声称可能需要IMF援助之类。听起来很极端，但究竟是怎么回事？

What is what is going on with France and The UK? Because, you know, I yeah. It's shocking me to read, and it's probably sensationalist. Oh, well, we might need the IMF to help us. I mean, it's like, sounds kind of extremist, but what is going on?

事实上，正如你暗示的，两国处境非常相似。德国也未能独善其身，同样深陷债务困境。欧洲最大的悖论在于：金融危机中的输家如意大利、西班牙、希腊，如今反而占据上风；而那些当时的赢家，比如法国和日益陷入困境的德国，现在却举步维艰。具体问题何在？

Well, the fact I mean, the the fact is that both are in a very similar situation as you as you allude to. I mean, I'm not gonna say that Germany is is out of the is out of that net because Germany equally has a problem in terms of debt. I mean, the great paradox, if you look at Europe generally, is that the big losers out of the GFC, countries like Italy, Spain, Greece, are the ones that are actually winning right now. And the winners, if you like, the come the countries that were pretty well off at the time of the GFC are the ones that are really under the cosh, you know, countries like France and actually increasingly Germany. Now what are the problems particularly?

究其根源，部分要归咎于中国效应——鉴于欧洲与中国经济的紧密联系，中国经济放缓对欧洲产生了负面溢出效应。但更根本的是长期过度慷慨的福利国家制度造成的债务问题。正如近日报道所示，德国总理已开始讨论缩减福利，这是不得不为的举措。但众所周知，说起来容易做起来难。

It really comes down, I mean, part of this is is the China effect because there's been a spillover, given the fact that Europe is so connected with the Chinese economy, and a slower Chinese economy is adversely affecting Europe. But then on top of that, embroidered on top, you've got this debt problem, which is really one about far, far too generous welfare state systems. And you will be you know, you would have read in the last day or so that, the German chancellor is actually talking about, pairing that down, which I mean, it it's they have to do it. I mean, there's no way these bills can be afforded in the long term, but it's easier. You know, it's easier saying than getting there, as we know.

具体来说，目前在法国和英国的情况是债务市场正在抛售，收益率上升。它们的上升原因与日本和中国不同，是由于供应问题而非需求问题。大量供应涌入，迫使期限溢价上升。纵观整个收益率曲线，不仅是长期期限溢价在上涨，日本也是如此。

Now specifically, what you're what you're seeing in the case of France and The UK is that the debt markets are selling off, yields are rising. They're rising for different reasons than yields are rising in Japan and China. There are they're rising because of supply issues, not because of demand issues. And it's because you've got this big weight of supply coming in, and, that's forcing term premium up. And if you look across the curve, it's not simply the long dated term premium that are rising as in Japan.

所有期限都在涨。问题在于这是一场主权债务危机。看看英国，三四年前人们对利兹·特拉斯的行为嗤之以鼻，但现任财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯所做的更甚。

It's everything. So, you know, the problem is this is a sovereign debt crisis. Look at The UK. You know, I mean, people poured scorn on Liz Truss, what, three or four years ago for what she did. But, I mean, the latest chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has done that.

她轻松超越了利兹·特拉斯。过去十二个月里，英国主权债券的基准期限溢价上涨了超过100个基点。这是重大的金融事件。而英国央行对此有何反应？

I mean, she's bested Liz Truss easily. I mean, yields are sovereign yields in The UK underlying term premier up over a 100 basis points in the last twelve months. And this this is a big finance deal. And what did the Bank

英格兰银行对此有何表态？

of England say about this?

实际上英格兰银行能做的有限。他们能做什么？降息的话，英国又面临正在显现的通胀问题。记得吗，在通胀抬头时，英国总是首当其冲，其次是澳大利亚。

Well, the Bank of England there is not much in truth the Bank of England can do. I mean, what what are they gonna do? You're gonna get them to, they can cut interest rates, but then The UK's got an inflation problem which is emerging. I mean, if one country, as you will recall, you know, the the oh, sorry. The the two countries that always used to feature first in any inflation pickup was Britain number one and Australia number two.

英国确实是这一进程的风向标，因为通胀具有粘性且正在回升。央行能采取的措施不多。

And Britain is really a bellwether to that process probably because inflation is sticky and it's picking up. There's not much the bank can do.

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那么他们打算怎么应对？因为必须采取行动对吧？我们无法容忍利率失控的世界。所以政府或央行最终必须采取某些措施来平息局面。

So so what are they gonna do about it? Because they're gonna have to do something. Right? We don't we're not in a world where we can allow interest rates to become unanchored. And so there's something that either the the government has to do or the central bank has to do eventually to quell this.

向国际货币基金组织借款的可能性不大。即便实现，也只是换了个渠道的流动性注入。但他们还能有什么其他解决方案呢？

And it can't be unlikely to borrow money from the IMF. If it is, it's just another liquidity injection from a different mechanism. But what other answers do they have?

我认为他们的首要举措是在即将公布的预算中尽可能增税。由于议会中社会主义派后排议员们否决所有削减开支的提案，缩减支出计划的空间非常有限。当前这对他们很棘手，但或许需要制造危机才能实施这些削减。显然，若与国际货币基金组织达成协议，该组织将成为强制削减开支的执行者。这就是他们的做法。

Well, I think the first thing they'll do is at the upcoming budget, they're gonna start increasing taxes as best they can. The ability to cut back on expenditure programs is limited because in parliament, the socialists, sort of backbenches are voting out, any any attempt to cut to cut spending. So that's that's tricky for them at the moment, but it may be that you have to force a crisis, to actually get those cuts put in place. And, clearly, if there is any deal with the IMF, the IMF would be the baton that sort of is wielded to actually beat down, spending. That's what they would do.

第三种选择是英格兰银行直接债务货币化。我们别断言这绝不会发生，因为这几乎就是最终必然的结局，对吧？

The third alternative is the Bank of England just basically monetizes the debt. Let's not say never for that because that's almost inevitably what's gonna happen in the what happens. Right?

但这正是他们选择的路径。那么具体会通过什么机制实现？收益率曲线控制吗？

But that is the chosen path. And by what mechanism would they do that? Yield curve control?

嗯，是的。我的意思是，可能是这样，或者他们干脆开始大量购买。他们实施另一种量化宽松计划。但你知道，这些量化宽松计划可以包装成在危机时期对债券市场的支持，就像他们以前做过的那样。所以我认为这就是机制。

Well, yes. I mean, it could be, or they just basically start to buy up. They do another sort of QE program. But, you know, these QE programs can be dressed up as support for the for the bond market in times of crisis, as they've done before. So I think that that's the mechanism.

他们所做的，不管怎么称呼，贴上什么标签。但如果让银行尝试购买更多债务，那是另一种方式，让私人银行购买更多政府债务，那是另一条出路。他们可以尝试放松一些控制。我是说，这已经被讨论过了。你会注意到，不仅仅是美国在谈论发行非常短期的债务和票据。

All they do it, you know, as you whatever one calls +1 01 put what label one puts on it. But if you get the banks to try and buy more debt, that's another way, the private banks, to buy more government debt, that's another route out. And they could try and loosen up some of the controls there. I mean, that's been spoken about. And you will note that, you know, that it's not just The US which is talking about issuing very short term debt and bills.

美国银行、英国财政部以及日本也在谈论做同样的事情。所以所有这些政府都在某种程度上看到了斯科特·贝松的所作所为，你知道，眼前一亮，说，哇。多好的主意啊。为什么我们没想到呢？问题在于这是货币化。

The bank The US the UK treasury as well as the Japanese are talking about doing the same thing. So all these governments are sort of seeing what Scott Besson has done, you know, lit up their eyes and say, woah. What a great idea. Why don't we think of that first? The trouble is it's monetization.

而且，是的，这是我的观点，可能也是你的观点。他们都在互相勾结。他们都知道他们面临的问题，他们都面临着同样的问题。他们往往在同一时间做同样的事情。就像，当我回顾2022年、2023年、2024年时，似乎他们都决定尝试通过移民来提高GDP增长，结果却适得其反。

And, yeah, it's been my opinion and probably your opinion too. They're they're all in cahoots with each other. They all know that the problem they're facing, they're all facing the same problem. And they all tend to do the same thing at same time. It's like, when I go back and look at, let's say, 2022, 2023, 2024, it seemed like they all decided to try and raise GDP growth via immigration, which then backfired.

现在我们看到了相反的情况。你知道，他们真的是一起做所有事情。

And now we've got the reverse of that. You know, they they do everything together, really.

我认为这是对的。我是说，你知道，移民问题确实正在成为一个主要问题。

I think that's right. I mean, you know, I mean, the the the problem I mean, the immigration problems are becoming really a a major issue here for sure.

是的。表面上是这样。全球流动性中的另一个重要因素，也许是最重要的，就是美元本身。现在很明显，贝桑特希望美元走弱。美国希望美元走弱，世界需要美元走弱。

Yeah. They are on the face. The other big factor in all of this in global liquidity, and maybe the big daddy of all, is the dollar itself. Now, it's been clear that Besant wants a weaker dollar. The US wants a weaker dollar, the world needs a weaker dollar.

这种疲软态势会持续吗？因为这确实是一个非常重要的因素，毕竟美元是全球的融资货币。

Does that continue weaker? Because that makes a that's a, you know, that's a very important factor in all of this because the dollar is the funding currency of the world.

我认为这个问题的答案可以说是既肯定又否定，这取决于参照对象。这里我们看到的是贸易加权美元指数，这也是我惯常分析美元的视角——我比较青睐国际清算银行编制的实际贸易加权指数。

Well, I think I the answer I could for the other role is is yes and no. It depends against what. So this is looking at the at the at the trade weighted dollar. And this is the way I tend to think about the dollar anyway. I like the real trade weighted index that the BIS does.

这张图真实反映了美元的内在走势。可以看到，美元长期下跌趋势在全球金融危机时期被打破，随后进入上升通道。根据我的判断，目前正处于周期性调整阶段，但没有任何证据表明纸质美元正在被削弱。有趣的是，观察下一张关于美元净流入的图表，资金流入似乎依然强劲。

And this this is really showing, what I think are the sort of the underlying currents in the dollar. So what you've had, you have the long downtrend in the dollar broken, around the time of the GFC, and then you've seen this upward channel. At the moment, we're having a cyclical correction in that in on my reckoning. There's no evidence the dollar is this is the paper dollar is really being undermined. And ironically, if you look at the following chart, which is looking at net inflows into the dollar, they seem still seem to be very strong.

我们无法从数据中找到资金正在撤离美元的迹象。需要特别说明的是，为确保100%准确性，这里并未采用美国财政部漏洞百出、不够精确的国际资本流动报告(TIC)数据，而是统计了其他国家申报的美元资产配置情况。虽然可能存在偏差，但能更真实反映资金流向——目前看来美元仍在持续吸纳资金。

There's no evidence, that we can find in the data that money is leaving the dollar. And this just to be, you know, 100% accurate here or or or complete, this is not looking at the, of The US data, the TIC data, which is, you know, notably rogue and not that accurate. This is looking at what all other countries are saying they're actually putting into the dollar. So presumably, it may have biases, but it's it's a more accurate read as to what's going on. And it looks as if money is still flowing.

你可以看到2010年全球金融危机后以及欧元区银行业危机后的情况。大量资金涌入美元，这确实成为了美国市场的支柱。这种趋势至今仍在延续。因此我认为，如果观察纸质美元，它看起来仍然相当坚挺。我完全同意这个观点——政府确实希望美元走弱，但考虑到这些动态因素，要实现这一目标对他们而言颇具挑战性。

You can see what happened after the GFC two thousand and ten, and after the eurozone banking crisis. Money a lot of money flowed into the dollar, and that's really, you know, been a mainstay of The US market. It's still there. So I think that if you look at the paper dollar, I think that that still looks reasonably robust. I accept the point 100% that I think the administration wants to get it weaker, but I think it's a bit of a challenge for them to get it weaker given these dynamics.

但我确实认为他们会试图通过言论打压美元，现有证据也表明了这一点。

But I do think they want to try and talk it down, and that's the evidence that one gets.

是的。从周期性角度来看，我认为我们还没到需要像《广场协议》那样彻底打压美元的地步。当前金融体系并未承受那么大的压力。况且，全球超过50%的债务是以美元计价的，美元走弱能让债务国更容易进行债务重组。

Yeah. And I think on a cyclical basis, I don't think we're at a full plaza report called nuke the dollar basis. We just don't have that much stress in the system. And listen, I think it's over 50% of world debt is in dollars. A weaker dollar allows people to refinance their debts.

因此，这一机制往往周期性疲软，以促成其运作，让各方得以刺激经济、采取必要措施。最终结果就是货币贬值。尽管有美元流入，人们对此仍感到困惑。实际上，美元作为全球储备货币基本面依然强劲且地位提升，但其购买力却因贬值而持续下降。

So, it tends to be cyclically weak to allow this mechanism to happen, allows everybody to stimulate, do what they need to do. That ends up being the debasement of currency. Even though you get dollar inflows, people get confused by this. It's like, no, the dollar is still fundamentally strong and is gaining as the world's reserve currency, but its purchasing power via debasement is actually decreasing.

没错。完全同意。我在想，日元——在我看来是被刻意压低的。人民币某种程度上也必须对美元贬值。

Yeah. Absolutely. And I think, you know, what what is it what would it we what could it weaken or strengthen against? Well, you know, if you look at, I think the yen is you know, my view is I think the yen is deliberately being held down. I think that, the Chinese yuan has to weaken against the US dollar in some form.

是的。

Yeah.

再看欧洲货币，其财政背景如此糟糕，我看不出欧元凭什么能对美元走强。或许某些新兴市场货币或澳元会周期性走强，但它们体量太小。反观之，当世界经济价值基准被稀释时，黄金、白银等实物资产和加密货币必将同步上涨。

And I think that if you look at the Europeans European units, I think the whole fiscal backdrop is so is so ugly that I can't see why the the euro should strengthen particularly against the dollar anyway. So, you know, there may be a case for some of the emerging market currencies picking up or the Aussie dollar cyclically. I don't know. But they're they're tiny in the context of things. On the other hand, you know, if you're debasing, you know, the main standard of value in the world economy, then you're gonna have real assets like gold, silver, precious metals going up, and you're gonna have cryptocurrencies going up at the same time.

这些正是对抗长期货币贬值的对冲工具。如你我常强调的：趋势与周期并存。趋势势不可挡，当前周期或许临近尾声，但周期本就是起伏波动的。

So this is, you know, this is these are the hedges against this long term monetary debasement. And as I, you know, as I and I know you keep saying, there's a trend here, and there's a cycle. The trend looks, you know, compelling. The cycle, we may be coming to the end of it, but, you know, cycles go up and down.

聚焦当下——我们用金融状况指数预测全球流动性总量。该指数横盘已久，但美元利率等指标显示其即将再度扩张，这让我们能更早预判周期走向。想听听你的看法：基于流动性视角，未来三到六个月会呈现怎样的态势？

The other thing so just zooming in now is we use our financial conditions index as a lead on total global liquidity. And it has been sideways for a while, but it looks like it's about to expand again because it's the dollar interest rates, and all of those seem to be moving in the favor of that, which then gives us a longer lead on the cycle. So I'm trying to get your thinking on, okay, what what does the next, like, three to six months look like on a forward basis from what you can see from liquidity?

好的。我的观点是——在那段时间框架内，我对流动性并不悲观。

Okay. I I mean, my view is I mean, I'm not bearish on liquidity over that time frame.

不。我

No. I

认为人们会提出许多问题，其中之一——我稍后会展示另一张图表（希望这张能正常显示）——是关于美联储资产负债表的变化。这是第一点。这张图表展示的是我称之为‘美联储流动性’的概念，这是我在撰写《资本战争》一书时提出的，它考察了美联储向系统注入流动性的各种手段。这显然是一个重要因素，虽非全部，但至关重要。

think that the there are a number of questions that people will raise, and I think one of those and I'm gonna show you another chart, hopefully, if this one works, is is what's happening to the Fed balance sheet. So that's number one. And this is looking at a concept that, you know, I call Fed liquidity, which is the thing that I came up with, you know, when I wrote that book Capital Wars, which is looking at, you know, the various components that, the Fed uses to get liquidity into the system. Now that's clearly an important element. It's not the whole story, but it's an important element.

这张图基本表明：在预测期内，美联储流动性的增长在纸面上会下降并转为负值。原因在于其基础成分——美国银行准备金。这张图表展示了我们基于...（数据）对年底前美国银行准备金的预测。

And what this is basically showing is that if you look at the projection period, on paper, the growth of Fed liquidity falls and goes negative. And the reason for that is if you come back to the underlying ingredient, which is US bank reserves, This is this chart is showing the our projections through year end of, US bank reserves based on Yeah.

所有人都为此焦虑，因为逆回购工具已空，所以若重建财政部一般账户（TGA），将引发巨大的流动性冲击。

Everyone's getting really caught up on this because they're like, the reverse repo is empty, and therefore, if you rebuild the TGA, you've got a massive liquidity shock.

是的。问题首先是：他们会重建TGA吗？季度融资公告称将恢复至8500亿美元，但我对此深表怀疑——从货币市场抽离如此巨额资金会导致回购利差飙升，而他们显然不愿看到这种情况。

Yeah. So, I mean, the the the the question is, number one, will they rebuild the TGA? Well, okay. If you look at the quarterly refunding announcement, it says they're gonna go back to $8.50. Well, I would be staggered if they get there because to take that amount of money out of money markets would cause the repo spread to spike, and I don't think they they want to do that.

所有迹象表明他们在试图管控回购利差。因此我不认为他们会提高TGA余额。即便提高，也可通过国债量化宽松或让银行购债等其他方式注入流动性。那张图表中的红色虚线代表我对系统最低充足准备金的估算。

There's every indication they're trying to manage the repo spread. So I don't think I don't buy the fact they're gonna put it up. Even if they do put it up, you can find other ways of injecting liquidity, as we said, through treasury QE or getting the banks to buy debt. So I think there are other ways around it. But, you know, what that chart is is trying to illustrate is that the dotted line the red dotted line is my estimate of what adequate reserves are, minimum reserves in the system.

去年八月压力测试规则变更时似乎出现了阶梯式调整。但今年以来，银行准备金始终紧贴那条虚线，我认为这是美联储有意为之——他们完全掌控着准备金总量。因此所谓TGA重建导致准备金骤降的观点，我难以认同。

And it looks as if there was that step change back last August when you got the change in the stress test rules. But, basically, what's happened to bank reserves through this year as they very closely hugged that dotted line? And I think that's deliberate because as we know, the Federal Reserve controls bank reserves in aggregate completely. And I think that's what they're that's what they're targeting amongst other things. So to see that drop off, which is the TGA re rebuild prospectively, I just don't buy.

我认为这不会发生。首先，美联储的流动性仍然相当充裕。根据我所听到的斯科特·贝松的言论以及美联储的行动，他们希望管理这种流动性，而非突然撤出市场支持。他们为何要这么做呢？

I don't think it's gonna happen. So I think that number one is you've got still pretty decent fed liquidity. And everything that I hear Scott Besson say and what I see the fed doing is they wanna manage that liquidity. They don't wanna pull the rug from the markets. Why should they?

第一点，观察离岸市场即国际市场时，我认为欧洲会延续当前轨迹继续增加流动性——他们本就不得不这样做。所有迹象都表明欧洲正趋向更宽松的政策。日本可能效仿，因为他们希望日元保持疲软，而中国正在启动大规模的货币扩张。

Number one. I think if you look at some offshore markets, in other words, international markets, I think that Europe continues in the in the groove it's been doing, which means adding more liquidity. They're gonna have to do that anyway. And I think all the moves are towards more ease in Europe. Japan, I think, follows because they want, the yen to remain soft, and China is embarking on a major monetary expansion.

因此在我看来，这段时间内的流动性背景仍然相当温和。

So as far as I can see, the liquidity background still looks pretty benign over that time frame.

没错。当我们同时观察美联储净流动性和整体流动性时——很多人只盯着前者惊呼'这将造成流动性冲击'——但计入银行体系因素后的总流动性图表呈现完全不同走势。现在似乎是总流动性主导的时代，资产负债表也呈现平稳态势。尽管资产负债表是其组成部分，但随着时间的推移，这些因素的关联性正在减弱。

Yeah. When we look at both the Fed net liquidity of this, and this is what a lot of people are talking about is, oh my god, this is going be a liquidity shock. But when you look at total liquidity, because it takes into account what's happening in the banking sector, it's a different chart. And it seems to be that it's the total liquidity dominance now, and this has become more of a steady as she goes factor, same with the balance sheet. So they've moved away, even though the balance sheet's a component of this, but they kind of move away from these things over time.

现在关键似乎在于银行体系。此外还有养老金系统和保险业等其他机制可供调控，毕竟它们都是债券的主要买家。

It now seems to be it's the banks. And there's other mechanisms. They can use the pension system and the insurance sector as well at various points because they're all the big buyers of bonds.

确实。我认为斯科特·布雷森作为精明之人已经深思熟虑过这些，他清楚意识到流动性对市场至关重要。

Yeah. Yeah. I I think this I mean, I think they've you know, Scott Bresson, as we know, is a clever guy, and I think he's thought these things through. And he is conscious of fact that liquidity is critical to markets.

正是如此。由对冲基金经理出任财政部长有个好处——我们说着相同的金融语言，能大致理解他的意图。回到最初的问题，你目前对流动性见顶时间的最佳预估是什么？第一季度还是更晚些时候？

Yeah, exactly. It helps having a hedge fund manager as the treasury secretary because we all speak the same language. So we kind of know what he's up to. Where do you think where is your to go back to where we started, your best guesstimate right now of when liquidity peaks? Is it Q1, a bit longer?

我属于第二季度阵营，但显然这是概率性的，可能会变化，但不是今年。不。

I'm in the camp of Q2, but obviously, it's probabilistic and it can change, but it's not this year. No.

不是今年。我是说，

It's not this year. I mean,

这对市场来说是一个非常重要的因素。

I That's a big important factor for markets.

是的。在我看来，至少还有六个月。我们使用的领先指标基于商业周期状况、油价变动、债券市场波动性等多种因素。最新数据显示是三月。

Yeah. It's it's, I mean, in my view, it's it's at least six months away. I mean, the the estimates we we came up with, we use leading indicators. Those leading indicators are based on factors like, what the business cycle is doing, what's happening to things like oil prices, what's happening to volatility in the bond markets, I mean, a number of things. But that actually comes up with the latest figure that we saw I saw was March.

所以和你说的那个时间框架很接近。我认为可能会因多种因素延长，但周期指向这个时间点。

So it's not it's pretty much, you know, close to where you're saying about that that sort of time frame. That's what I would think. Now it may be extended by a number of factors, but that's what I think the cycle is pointing to.

我也这么认为。有趣的是，当我回到资产市场，最关注的是加密货币和科技股，它们对贬值表现出最强的抵抗力。它们处于对数趋势通道中，意味着如果周期延长，价格会随时间上涨。由于2021年中断周期的影响，人们不太理解这个机制——现在情况相反，时间延长可能导致价格持续上涨。

Yeah, I do too. And what's really interesting to me is if I then go back to asset markets, the two big assets that I look in all of this is really cryptocurrency and technology stocks, because they seem to be outperforming debasement more than anything else. They're in a log trend channel, which means that basically over time, if the cycle's extended, the price goes higher. And I think people don't really understand this mechanism because of what happened in the stunted cycle of 2021, that we've got the opposite of 2021 at play here, which is that time is being extended, and therefore, likely gets extended upwards.

是的，这很合理。归根结底，我们应该加大对流动性敏感资产的投资，这很有意义。

Yeah. I mean, that's that makes sense to me. I think that's you know, at the end of the day, you know, we we should be investing more and more in liquidity sensitive assets. I think that makes sense.

我们确实做过一件事，我想听听你的看法，黄金市场最近很有意思。它现在正发挥着应有的作用。但我们发现，黄金似乎与金融状况高度相关，而非实际利率或其他传统关联因素，现在几乎实时反映金融状况。最近它处于这种楔形走势中。假设美元从这里开始进一步走弱，利率再降一些，这将推动黄金突破，因为金融状况占主导地位，而我们发现其影响会领先所有其他因素约九个月。

One thing we did do, and I just wanted to get your thoughts on this, gold has been an interesting market. It does what it's supposed to do right now. But what we found is gold seems to be highly correlated with financial conditions, not real rates and all the other things it was linked to, but it now seems to be pretty much real time financial conditions. So, it's been in this kind of wedge pattern recently. Let's assume that the dollar weakens a bit more from here, rates come down a bit more, that'll break out gold because that's the majority of financial conditions, which leads everything we found by about nine months.

所以观察黄金变得非常有趣，对我来说现在也相当可解释。它会在可解释与不可解释的周期间切换。但黄金的这种模式我认为很重要。我知道你也在关注黄金。

So gold has become really interesting to watch, and for me is now quite explainable. It goes from periods of being explainable to not explainable. But, you know, that patterning gold, I think, is important. I know you look you look at gold as well.

是的。不，我想我没涉及这点。我认为如果你看实际利率，长期以来实际利率和金价紧密联动，直到它们不再同步。这种脱钩基本上是从2022年开始的。

Yeah. No. I think I didn't touch that. I I think that that if you look at real interest rates, real interest rates and the gold price moved very closely together for a long, long time, and then until they didn't. And they didn't basically from 2022 onwards.

现在你可以争论说——很多人认为这是因为乌克兰战争。本质上是因为人们对美元失望了，想要更安全的资产。这可能是原因，但我觉得时间线并不完全吻合。

Now you can argue that that was, a lot of people say, well, that's because of Ukraine invasion. That was because, basically, people got disillusioned with the dollar. They wanted a safer asset. That that may be the case. I don't think that lines up exactly.

我认为更大的驱动因素是，那段时间你看到了货币贬值的开端。黄金开始更多受货币因素、流动性流动的影响，而受持有成本利率的影响小得多。所以现在人们购买黄金是作为保护，作为货币对冲，就像很多人购买比特币——虽然最初不知道为什么买，但现在越来越多人是将其作为货币通胀对冲工具。

I think what what's the the bigger driver is that was really the period where you saw. That was the time when you saw the beginning of this monetary debasement. So gold basically began to be moved much more, by monetary factors, by the flow of liquidity, and a lot less by essentially the cost of carry interest rates. So I think that's the that's the you know, people are buying gold as a protection, as a monetary hedge now in the same way as I think a lot a lot of people are buying I mean, people bought Bitcoin because they didn't they didn't really know why, but they bought it. But I think now you're getting people who are buying it as a monetary inflation hedge.

你知道，

You know,

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链接在描述里。我觉得你会喜欢的。假设世界上大多数主要央行都明白这场游戏是货币贬值，而且它们必须共同行动来为债务再融资。那么它们的工作之一就是抵消部分影响。所以如果你知道必须经历一个债务再融资周期，美元对所有人来说都必须贬值。

The link's in the description. I think you're gonna love it. Let's assume that most of the world's major central banks know the game is debasement of currency and they're all having to do it together to refinance debts. Then part of their job is to offset some of that. So if you know you've got to go through a debt refinancing cycle, the dollar has to weaken for everybody.

最可能的结果是，它们最终会将美元储备分散配置到黄金这类资产上。我们已经看到，中东地区确实有将比特币纳入主权财富基金资产负债表的各个部分。这与它们的理解非常一致。在我看来，最了不起的是瑞士国家银行，因为它们似乎看透了这场游戏——毕竟它们参加所有会议，但体量太小无关紧要。多年前我见到它们时，它们说我们可以为所欲为，因为我们太小了无足轻重。

Well, the most likely outcome is they end up diversifying dollar reserves out into an asset like gold. And we've seen, certainly in The Middle East, Bitcoin being put on various parts of the sovereign wealth fund balance sheets. So it seems very consistent with them understanding. The great one to me, the greatest of all, I think, was the Swiss National Bank because they kind of figured out what the game was because they're at all the meetings, but they're too small to matter. I remember meeting them years ago, and they were like, we can do anything we want because we're too small to matter.

而它们的做法不是管理这个过程，而是直接买入科技股，这很天才，因为那正是该买的资产。

And what they did, instead of managing this process, they just bought tech stocks, which was genius because that was the right thing to buy.

没错。完全正确。我是说，也许我们该先关注它们是否会成为比特币的官方买家。

Exactly. Yeah. Exactly right. I mean, that's right. I mean, maybe we look to them first as be the buyer the official buyer of Bitcoins.

这完全有可能。

It's entirely possible.

是啊。要知道当时所有人都觉得它们疯了——它们变成了对冲基金。但它们想明白了：既然货币贬值，不如直接买入能跑赢贬值的资产。它们的资产负债表一直很健康，这让瑞士法郎在整个周期内保持强劲或稳定。

Yeah. Because, you know, everyone thought, well, what are they crazy? They turned into a hedge fund, but they figured out, well, debasement, you might as well just buy the asset that outperforms the debasement. Their balance sheet's been great, which has kept the Swiss francs strong over this whole period or steady over the whole period.

对。但我觉得另一点——你肯定也有见解——是关于稳定币的角色，以及它如何为财政部和Besant提供更多融资渠道。这可能影响巨大。如果你研究稳定币的运作方式，甚至可以论证——实际上我曾从某个角度提出反对意见——稳定币的大规模增长可能严重削弱银行信贷，因为稳定币发行比银行受到更多约束。

Yeah. But I think the other thing is, which I'm sure you've got an opinion about as well, is about the role of stablecoin and how this gives a conduit to the treasury and Besant to actually do a lot more funding. I mean, this this could be big. And I think it's you know, if you if you start to look at how stablecoins operate, typically, I mean, you you could make a case. And in fact, I I've sort of argued negatively in one in one regard to say that, you know, the a big growth in stablecoin could actually dent bank credit significantly because, actually, a stablecoin is a lot more or stablecoin issue is a lot more constrained than a bank.

如果大量资金从银行流向稳定币，你肯定不希望看到信贷增长，这显然是有可能的。但另一方面，这实际上为财政部提供了一个绝佳的信贷来源。因此，你将看到的是通过稳定币渠道、由公共部门主导的更多信贷增长。这无疑为政府提供了一个印钞的机会。

And if a lot of funds move from banks into stablecoins, you don't wanna get credit growth, which is clearly a possibility. But then you've got to think about it from the other side is that, actually, it's a wonderful source of credit for the treasury. And so this is what you're gonna get is much more public sector led, credit growth via the stablecoin conduit. And it gives it's really an opportunity, in no other words to for governments to print money.

有趣的是那些长期存在的事物。我们这一代人是伴随着欧洲美元市场成长的。欧洲美元市场曾是美元的批发融资市场，但它主要服务于日本大银行、欧洲银行等机构。其他人要进入这个市场受到限制，很难在外部获取美元，但那就是当时主要的美元融资市场。

What's interesting is those who have around a long time. You know, we grew up with the euro dollar market. The euro dollar market was the wholesale funding markets of the dollar, but that stopped at, like, the big Japanese banks, the European banks and stuff like that. And then you had to get access to it, and it was restricted down to others. It was hard to get hold of dollars outside of that, but that was the big dollar funding market.

稳定币本质上是一个分散到个人层面的欧洲美元市场。这意味着你可以身处世界任何国家都能获得美元，这是非常了不起的。因此，你正在做的是将美元及其债券的发行和持有扩展到全球的个人层面。

What stablecoins essentially is, is a fractionalized eurodollar market down to individual level. So, it means you can be in any country in the world and get access to dollars, which is an extraordinary thing. And so, what you're doing is spreading the dollar and the issuance of bonds and the holding of bonds down to individuals all around the globe.

是的。我认为这是一场革命。考虑到欧洲人态度突然转变——他们之前对推出某种欧元等价货币一直拖拖拉拉，现在却全力推进——你就能明白为什么它如此重要。

Yeah. I I think I think it's a it's a revolution. I think you can see why it's so important given the sort of sudden change of heart by the Europeans who were sort of dragging their feet hugely on, on some equivalent, euro euro, currency. And now they're basically going full steam ahead.

他们会通过央行数字货币的路径来实现吗？还是打算让开放市场自行发展以试图扩大欧元需求？因为...

And are they gonna do it via the central bank digital currency route, are they just going to let the open market just build to to try and spread demand for euros? Because it

考虑到这是欧洲，我认为必须走央行路线。他们不会让私营部门介入，但这正是他们应该做的。

Well, I think given given the fact it's Europe, it's it's got to be the central bank route. They're not going to let the private sector get in there, but that's what they should be doing.

是啊。我们看看全球范围内是否真的存在对欧元的需求。感觉现在还是美元主导的世界。确实如此。

Yeah. And let's see whether there's actual demand for euros on a globalized basis. It feels like it's a dollar world, and it's Yeah.

但认为他们之所以惊慌失措，是因为意识到自己可能被美元稳定币彻底淘汰、压制或挤出市场。

But think they're they're running scared because they realize that it that they could be, you know, wiped out or smothered, crowded out, in fact, by by dollar stablecoins.

就连你展示资金涌入美国的图表也表明这种挤出效应正在发生。我们在英国和法国债券市场看到的本质就是——没有足够的外国投资者愿意为其他国家的债务融资。或许日本也存在类似情况，因为所有人都更倾向于为美国融资。

And even your chart of of showing the amount of money piling to The US shows that that crowding out is happening. And that's what we're seeing in The UK and The French bond markets essentially is there's not enough foreigners who want to finance other countries' debts. We're seeing whether arguably maybe in Japan as well, there's not enough demand because everybody would rather finance The US.

没错，我完全同意。我认为这正是该图表揭示的现实，但过去十五年来始终如此——大量资金持续流入美国，因为美国债券市场就是全球抵押品。更不用说还有科技行业这块锦上添花的蛋糕。

Yeah, I think absolutely. I think that that's I think that's the reality of that of that chart, but it's been the reality for the last, you know, fifteen years that there's a lot of money flowing that has flowed into The US because The US is, you know, is is the is the bond market. It's global collateral. And they've got on top of that, the, you know, the added, you know, icing on top is the tech sector.

最后请教一个问题：你认为随着大规模再融资时期的到来，货币贬值速度或流动性增长率会加速吗？我们应该会看到这些指标的飙升，还是说将保持平稳态势？

So final question for you. So do you think the rate of debasement or the increase in liquidity, the rate of change increases from here going into this whole big large refinancing, refunding period? So we should see a spike in all of that, or is it kind of more steady as she goes?

我的分析思路是回到这张债务与流动性的比率图表。其核心要义是：长期来看，金融稳定需要保持稳定的债务流动性比率（针对发达经济体）。以美国为例，债务增长率很可能维持在每年8%-10%的水平。那么相应地，流动性也必须以同等速度增长才能维持这个稳定比率。

The way that I think about it is to go back to this chart, which is looking at the ratio between debt and liquidity. And what this is really saying is that over long term, financial stability demands a stable debt liquidity ratio. This is for the advanced economies. If you get debt growth, and I think debt growth is, let's take The US as a decent benchmark, debt growth is likely to be growing at something like eight to 10% per annum or that sort of magnitude. Then I think what you've got on top of that is equivalent liquidity growth because you need a stable debt liquidity ratio.

目前采用的国会预算办公室预测数据虽未考虑经济衰退因素，但历史表明每次衰退都会导致赤字激增——最近两次衰退期间美国赤字占GDP比重就暴增了4-5个百分点。这意味着实际债务增速可能远高于预期。

So liquidity has got to grow at pretty much the same rate. Now what we know is that a lot of those projections, and I tend to use numbers that come from the congressional budget office for want of any other source. They give decent long term projections. The problem with the CBO numbers is they don't take into account recessions, and we know that recessions, basically lead to big deficits. And in the last couple of recessions, The US deficits blown up by four to five percentage points of GDP.

因此8%-10%只是最保守估计，我们应当基于这个基准进行投资决策。问题是能提供这种中期回报的资产寥寥无几，债券显然无法满足要求。

So you could be seeing actually a lot faster, potential growth of debt anyway. So I think that these figures are of sort of eight to 10% minimum oh, sorry, minimum figures, and that's what we ought to be thinking about. So, you know, in that case, you've gotta choose assets that are likely to give you that sort of return over the medium term, and there's not that many around. Certainly, bonds don't do it.

超级有趣。迈克，一如既往地，看吧。能和你一起梳理这一切真是太棒了。我认为这对人们总是非常有帮助。而且，我想传达的信息是目前保持稳定，你知道的，这场持续的游戏。

Super interesting. Mike, as ever, look. Fantastic to run through all of this with you. I think, it's always incredibly helpful to people. And, I guess the message is steady as we she goes for now, you know, the ongoing game.

接下来的几个月，是的，直到年底。我认为这是对的。我的意思是，我们都知道九月是个糟糕的月份，但从历史上看，你必须忽略这一点。但总的来说，我认为情况还好。是的。

The next few months, yeah, through year end. I I think that's right. I mean, we always know that September is a bad month, but you got you gotta discount that, historically. But, I mean, generally, I I think it's okay. Yeah.

我是说，我们会遇到波动，会有流动性撤出等等情况，但趋势是完整的，并且会持续一段时间。

I mean, we will get wiggles and we'll get liquidity withdrawals and all of that stuff, but the the the the trend is intact and continues for a while.

在我看来，市场上看跌的人太多了。人们总想预测市场的顶部，我认为这总是，嗯，有问题的。

There are there are too many bears out there to my mind. I mean, people want to call the top of the market, and I think that's always, yeah, problematic.

是的。完全同意。好了，我的朋友。非常感谢你。谢谢，盖伊。

Yeah. Totally agree. Alright, my friend. Thank you ever so much. Thanks, Guy.

享受吧。又一次与迈克的精彩对话。总是很棒。能够环顾世界，看看正在发生的事情总是好的。

Enjoy it. So another great conversation with Mike. Always good. Always good to be able to go around the world. Look at what's going on.

看看它是如何影响资产的。不仅要考虑短期的时间范围，还要考虑中期和长期的时间范围，以及这一切如何发展。你看，这些是你真正驾驭这一切所需的工具。这类工具能帮你理清未来。现在，别忘了在Real Vision，我们有Real Vision Alpha，那里有我和朱利安·帕特尔提供的宏观投资工具，我们每周都会为你制作所有这些图表，帮助你驾驭市场。

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It's honestly life changing as an investment for your your future and how to unfuck it. Anyway, I'll see you next time. Take care.

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