市场交易：2025年11月26日 | 克里斯·布洛克与比詹·马利基

如果你一直在考虑期货交易，现在或许是时候深入了解一番了。

If you've been considering futures trading, now might be the time to take a closer look.

近期期货市场活跃度上升，而Plus500期货提供了一个便捷的入门渠道。

The futures market has seen increased activity recently and plus five hundred futures offers a straightforward entry point.

该平台提供主要交易品种的接入，包括标普500、纳斯达克、比特币、天然气等关键市场的股指、能源、金属、外汇和加密货币。

The platform provides access to major instruments, including the S and P five hundred, NASDAQ, Bitcoin, natural gas, and other key markets across equity indices, energy, metals, Forex, and crypto.

其界面设计注重易用性。

Their interface is designed for accessibility.

只需最低100美元入金，即可通过手机监控和执行交易。

You can monitor and execute trades from your phone with a $100 minimum deposit.

开户后，只需点击两次即可执行潜在交易。

Once your account is open, potential trades can be executed in two clicks.

对于希望先练习的用户，Plus500提供配备完整图表分析工具的无限期模拟账户。

For those who prefer to practice first, Plus500 offers an unlimited demo account with full charting and analytical tools.

在熟悉平台过程中无需承担任何风险。

No risk involved while you familiarize yourself with the platform.

该公司已在交易领域运营超过二十年。

The company has been operating in the trading space for over twenty years.

下载Plus500应用程序。

Download the Plus500 app.

期货交易存在亏损风险。

Trading in futures involves the risk of loss.

它并不适合所有人。

It is not suitable for everyone.

并非所有申请者都能符合资格。

Not all applicants will qualify.

大家好。

Hey, everyone.

如你所知，在本播客中，我邀请了那些在科技指数级增长时代对宏观加密领域有深刻理解的世界顶级嘉宾。

As you know, on this podcast, I bring the best guests in the world at that nexus of understanding of macro crypto in the exponential age of technology.

如果你喜欢这个节目，请快速给予五星好评，这对我们帮助很大。

If you're enjoying the show, a quick five star rating goes a long way.

这有助于我们发展壮大，并持续带来与全球顶尖嘉宾的对话。

It helps us grow and keep these conversations coming with the best guests in the world.

非常感谢。

Thanks a lot.

大家周三快乐，欢迎回到新一期的《与克里斯·布洛克（又名Blasto Plass）一起交易市场》节目。

Happy Wednesday, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of trading the markets with Chris Bullock, aka Blasto Plass.

他刚刚为我们的RV Pro会员完成了与Caleb Fransen的访谈。

And he's actually fresh off of an interview with Caleb Fransen for our RV Pro members.

如果你还不是RV Pro会员，现在正是加入的好时机，因为我们的黑色星期五促销已正式启动。

So if you're not an RV Pro member, it's actually now a great time to become one because our Black Friday sale is officially live.

你现在可以享受Real Vision会员资格最高50%的折扣。

So you can right now get up to 50% off of Real Vision memberships.

请立即访问realvision.com/BlackFriday。

So make sure you head over to realvision.com forward slash Black Friday.

查看更多相关信息。

Check out more information on that.

您可以成为RV Pro会员或RV Connect会员，获取Chris的投资组合、我们在Discord的实时技术分析节目、Joe Bland与Nico的节目，以及Joe Bland的投资组合等资源。

You can become an RV pro member or an RV connect member and get access to Chris's portfolio, our live TA show in Discord, Joe Bland's show with Nico, and our Joe Bland's portfolio as well.

Connect会员等级包含大量优质内容。

So a lot of stuff on the connect tier.

当然，Alpha会员等级还能获得Julian的MIT报告及一系列其他独家内容。

And alpha tier, of course, you get Julian's MIT report plus a whole bunch of other content.

另外，各位，我们一月份还将举办加密货币峰会。

And, also, guys, we have the crypto gathering coming up in January.

详情请访问realvision.com/cryptogathering。

So head on over to realvision.com/cryptogathering for more details.

我们刚在平台上为会员发布了一段视频，解答最常见问题。

And we actually just released a video on the platform from our for our members' most frequently asked questions.

主要是向他们介绍加密货币峰会的亮点内容以及活动安排。

Just kind of explain to them what they can expect at the crypto gathering and, you know, what we have going on there.

如果还没观看，请务必查看。

So make sure you check that out if you haven't already.

今天我们为大家准备了一场精彩的节目。

But we have a great show for you today.

我们将探讨全球流动性问题。

We're gonna be looking at global liquidity.

我们会查看大量图表进行分析。

We're looking we're looking at a whole bunch of charts.

我们将关注比特币的走势，看看它目前处于什么位置。

We're gonna check-in on Bitcoin, see where that's at.

那么闲话少说，克里斯，现在把话筒交给你。

So without further ado, Chris, I'm gonna throw it to you.

首先，周三快乐。

First of all, happy Wednesday.

希望你在感恩节前一天过得愉快。

Hope you're doing well on this day before Thanksgiving.

今天你为我们准备了什么内容呢？

But what do you got for us today?

是啊。

Yeah.

还不错。

Doing well.

市场正在良好反弹，这是我们一直希望、期待的结果，你知道的。

The markets are rebounding nicely, which we've been hoping, expecting, you know, whatever.

情况看起来不错。

Thing things look good.

我们正在迎来周一节目中讨论的反弹。

We're getting the bounce that we talked about on the Monday show.

就像我们之前说的，市场明显超卖，我们预计会有反弹。

Like, we we knew that things were very oversold, and we were expecting a bounce.

问题只是最终能看到多大的反弹幅度？

The question just is how big of a bounce will we ultimately see?

我们知道目前仍有相当大的抛售压力。

We know there's quite a bit of selling pressure still.

我们知道市场上存在普遍共识，很多人想着'一到100点我就抛'。

We know there's the the general consensus out there of people who are like, as soon as it gets to a 100, I'm gonna sell.

我要离场。

I'm gonna get out.

只要涨到1.05、1.10美元什么的，我就全部清仓离场。

As soon as it gets to whatever, $1.00 5, one ten, I'm gonna sell everything and get out.

你懂吗？

You know?

所以有很多人觉得自己错过了顶点，认为高点已现，准备趁反弹出货。

So there's a lot of people who think that they missed the peak and that the top is in and that they're gonna sell on the bounce.

现在反弹来了，我们正观察我们反复讨论的流动性环境是否会真正'开闸放水'——随你怎么形容——能否压倒这些准备逢高抛售的人带来的卖压。

And so now we have the bounce, and we're waiting to see if the, you know, the the liquidity environment that we keep talking about is actually going to, whatever, turn the hose on, whatever word you wanna use, and sort of outweigh that selling pressure that we're seeing from all of the people who are planning to sell the bounce.

这一幕正在我们眼前实时上演。

And it's playing out before our eyes right now as we speak.

不过目前流动性还没进场。

So well, the liquidity hasn't come in yet.

应该说，还有大众。

The and mass, I should say.

比如，如果我们看这里，看美元指数，可以看到美元指数确实遭遇了阻力，这很好。

Like, if we look here if we look at the dollar index, we can see the dollar index did get rejected, which is nice.

我们可以看到上周和这周全球流动性有所上升，这，你知道，再次体现在这次美元下跌中。

We can see that global liquidity has ticked up last week and this week, which, you know, again, is is sort of reflected in this in this dollar dip here.

所以我们看到了一些迹象。

So we're seeing some.

但如果我们仅从美国的角度来看，它还没有真正开始变动。

But if we look at it just from, like, a a US standpoint, it hasn't really moved yet.

目前还没有太大变化。

It hasn't really changed much yet.

我们知道量化紧缩尚未结束。

We know QT hasn't ended yet.

我们知道，降息还没发生，所有这些事情都还没发生。

We know, you know, just the rate cut hasn't happened yet, all of that stuff.

所以我们还在等待美国方面的动作。

So we're kinda waiting for it from The US side.

从全球范围来看，我们已经看到了一些迹象。

From a global side, we're seeing it a little bit.

这还不错。

So that's nice.

我们确实在这里看到了反弹。

We have we do have the bounce here.

在周一的节目中，我重点指出了几个阻力位，我们将这些视为潜在的回落点。

On the Monday show, I highlighted several resistance levels that we were going to be looking out for to as potential rejection points.

第一个是十日移动平均线。

And the first one was the ten day moving average.

目前我们幸运地位于十日移动均线之上。

Right now, we're above the ten day moving average, thankfully.

事实上，就在二十分钟前，我们还处于均线下方，当时形势看起来开始有点不妙。

In fact, just like twenty minutes ago, we were below it, and it looked it was starting to look kind of ugly.

所以很巧的是，节目一开始我们就迎来了一个不错的反弹。

So it's nice that right as soon as the show kicked off, basically, we got a nice bounce.

接下来我们要关注的是20日移动平均线。

And then, you know, the next one we have is gonna be the twenty day moving average.

然后还有这条向下的对角线趋势线。

Then we have this downward diagonal trend line.

我们还有50日移动平均线。

We have the fifty day moving average.

你知道，10万美元这个心理关口也在附近徘徊。

You know, kind of the the $100,000 level is floating around in there, that even psychological level.

这是人们经常讨论的一个关键点位。

That's something that people talk about a lot.

再往上我们还有几个需要突破的阻力位。

And then, you know, we've got a few more up and beyond that.

所以现在还处于早期阶段，前路依然漫长。

So still early stages, still a long ways to go.

不过，你知道，我们正在小步前进，朝着正确的方向迈进。

But, you know, I we're we're baby steps, and we're moving in the right direction.

而且这种情况在各个领域都在发生。

And and it's happening kind of across the board.

今天股票看起来也很不错。

Stocks look really good today too.

股票全线上涨。

Stocks are all up.

所有主要指数都在上涨。

All the major indices are up.

这就是目前的大致情况。

So that's kinda what's going on.

你知道，自从周一节目以来变化不大，除了我们继续看到反弹这一点很好，我们只需要观察它如何发展。

You know, not a lot has changed since the Monday show outside of the fact that, you know, we are continuing to see the bounce, which is good, and we just have to see how it plays out, really.

是的。

Yeah.

那么你会说我们至少是在朝着正确的方向趋势发展吗？

So would you say we're we're, I guess, trending in the right direction at least?

我们确实在朝着正确的方向趋势发展。

We are indeed trending in the right direction.

我希望看到我们的趋势能更进一步。

I'd like to see us trending a little further.

这很有趣。

It's interesting.

实际上一些替代币的趋势发展得更快，出现了大量积累和一些随机情况，比如SPX就有大额资金流入和异常现象。

Some alts are actually trending much faster, seeing some major accumulation and some random stuff, big accumulation and, like, you know, strange, like SPX, for example.

我一直在查看链上数据。

I've been looking on the on chain data.

有个大玩家正在进场，每次买入价值9000万到1亿美元的巨额份额。

There's there's some big player coming in and buying huge chunks of it, you know, $90,100,000 dollar chunks of it at a time.

虽然不清楚具体发生了什么，但这确实很有意思。

Don't I know what's going on there, but, I mean, that's interesting.

看着不错。

Nice to see.

你知道，就是其他一些随机的，比如那个叫什么来着？

You know, just other kind of random ones, like what was it?

Rect。

Rect.

Rect今天涨了27%。

Rect is up 27% today.

知道吗？

You know?

就是时不时有些小奇怪的东西。

Like, just little little strange ones here and there.

然后那个叫什么来着？

And then what was it?

有些流行的meme币最近开始有人接盘了，比如USD。

You some popular memes that have been kind of catching a bid lately, like USD.

这是什么？

What is it?

USD，USD，确切地说是USD币，诸如此类的。

USD, USD, coin rather, and things like that.

你知道吗？

You know?

就是些随机的现象。

Just random things.

但有趣的是，这正促使其他币种的主导地位持续向好，并实现了一个月的上涨。

But it's causing the it's interestingly, it's causing the others' dominance to continue to do well and and put in a green month.

与此同时，比特币的主导地位却在经历一个月的下跌。

Meanwhile, we've got Bitcoin dominance, you know, putting in a red month.

所以尽管整个大盘呈现出一片悲观氛围，看到这些随机的小众币种依然跑赢大盘，导致目前整个山寨币市场的总市值超越了比特币，这确实很奇怪。

So it's it's strange to see that despite all of this sort of doom and gloom across the broader market, random alts are still outpacing, and it's causing the the general, you know, market cap of of of all of the alt market to outpace Bitcoin right now.

是啊，真是奇怪的时代。

And so, yes, strange times.

奇怪的时代。

Strange times.

确实是奇怪的时代。

Strange times indeed.

实际上我们Discord里有个很棒的问题，我想深入探讨一下。

So we actually had we had a great question come in from our Discord that I think I wanna dive in.

我们之前私下讨论过这个。

We were talking offline before about this.

我觉得我们想深入探讨。

I think we wanna dive into.

这个问题相当长，我会尽量缩短后在节目里读出来。

So I'm gonna it's it's quite a long question, so I'm gonna try and shorten it as much as I can to to read it on air.

但我们Discord里的Hope Crocodile说：'我正在关注未来90天的几个短期风险'。

But hope crocodile in our Discord says, here are a few short term risks that I'm watching over the next ninety days.

MSCI可能在二月份将MicroStrategy从其指数中移除。

MSCI may remove MicroStrategy from its indexes in February.

如果他们这么做了，其他基金可能会效仿。

And if they do, other funds might follow.

关于美国政府的短期资金协议在2026年1月30日到期后会发生什么，目前存在不确定性。

There's uncertainty around what happens when the US government short term funding deal expires on 01/30/2026.

最后，我们看到一些仍相信比特币四年周期会重演的人正在抛售。

And finally, we're seeing some selling from people who still believe the four year Bitcoin cycle will repeat.

考虑到所有这些因素，你认为这些风险是否已被市场消化，使得现在是买入的好时机？还是更明智的做法是等到一月底二月初，观察事态发展后再做决定？假设投资期限为比特币的六个月至数年。

Now given all of that, do you think these risks are already priced in, making now a good time to buy, or is it a smarter time to wait until late January, early February to see how things shake out, assuming the invest investment horizon is six months to multiple years for Bitcoin.

你是否曾想交易比特币却不敢尝试？

Have you ever wanted to trade Bitcoin but haven't dared try?

通过Plus500期货，你可以无需麻烦地开设钱包就能交易加密货币。

With plus 500 futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet.

只需点击几下，注册后就能用他们免费且不限次数的模拟账户开始练习。

With just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo.

看到交易机会了吗？

See a trading opportunity?

只需点击两下，你就能进行交易。

You'll be able to trade it in just two clicks.

准备好了吗？

Feel ready?

一旦账户获批，最低只需100美元即可转为真实资金交易。

You can move to real money with as little as a $100 once your account is approved.

最棒的是，除了加密货币，PLUS 500还提供多种交易工具：标普500、纳斯达克、天然气等应有尽有。

And the great thing is that in addition to crypto, PLUS 500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments: S and P 500, NASDAQ, gas, and much more.

探索股票指数、能源、金属、外汇等更多领域。

Explore equity indices, energy, metals, forex, and beyond.

通过简单直观的平台，随时随地都能交易。

With a simple and intuitive platform, you could trade anytime, anywhere.

体验PLUS 500带来的快速便捷期货交易，这正是你期待的。

Experience the fast, accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with PLUS 500.

拥有二十余年经验的PLUS 500，是你进入市场的门户。

With over twenty years of experience, PLUS 500 is your gateway to the markets.

访问us.plus500.com了解更多信息。

Visit us.plus500.com to learn more.

期货交易存在亏损风险，并不适合所有人。

Trading in futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

并非所有申请者都能获得资格。

Not all applicants will qualify.

Plus 500。

Plus 500.

这是增值交易。

It's trading with a plus.

嗯，这可是个价值百万美元的问题，不是吗？

Well, that is the million dollar question, isn't it?

你知道吗？

You know?

让我稍微退一步，把这个问题拆解一下来分析。

Let me kinda back up and take that into chunks a little bit.

首先，我们来谈谈MSCI这件事。

Let's talk about the the MSCI thing, first of all.

在10月10日那天，我们遭遇了大崩盘。

So on on October 10, we had the big crash.

并非巧合的是，MSCI正是在此时宣布他们可能不仅要摘牌MicroStrategy，还包括任何将超过50%的国库资金配置在数字资产上的股票。

Not uncoincidentally, this is when MSCI announced that they were potentially going to delist, not only MicroStrategy, but any any stock that basically holds more than 50% of its of its, I guess, treasury in in a digital asset.

而MicroStrategy作为规模最大且最知名的此类企业，自然首当其冲。

And so microstrategy being the biggest and the, you know, the biggest and the the main one that we know about that does that.

那么如果他们现在摘牌，会发生什么后果？

And so if they delist now what would happen if they delisted it?

这究竟意味着什么？

What does that even mean?

如果摘牌MicroStrategy，意味着所有将其纳入成分股的共同基金、ETF和指数基金都将被迫抛售所持头寸，该股票将不再被纳入这些指数基金的追踪范围。

So if they delist microstrategy, that means that all of these mutual funds, ETFs, index funds that have MicroStrategy listed as part of their fund would be obligated to sell and and divest that MicroStrategy position, and it would no longer be tracked as part of this index fund as as these index funds.

实质上这将引发大规模的强制抛售潮。

So effectively, there would be a ton of forced selling.

MicroStrategy将无法被纳入这些指数，这基本上会消除整个催化剂，你知道的，就是那个飞轮效应，MicroStrategy最初赖以存在的机制。

Microstrategy would not be allowed to be listed in these indexes, and it would kind of take away the whole catalyst, you know, the the the flywheel thing, the mechanism that MicroStrategy has for existing in the first place.

因此，MicroStrategy不一定需要出售他们的比特币，但他们也将无法继续购买更多。

And so as such, MicroStrategy would not be required to sell their Bitcoin necessarily, but they wouldn't also really be enabled to buy anymore.

明白吗？

You know?

他们整个计划基本上就会瓦解。

Their their whole kind of plan would dissolve, basically.

这样一来，他们的股价会下跌，因为一方面人们不想持有他们的股票，毕竟他们不会再购买更多比特币了。

And as such, their stock price would go down because, one, people wouldn't wanna hold their stock because they're not gonna be buying more Bitcoin.

但另一方面，由于所有这些指数基金、ETF和共同基金需要减持这些头寸并将其从基金中移除，他们的股票将面临强制抛售。

But, also, there would be forced selling of their stock by way of all of these index funds and and ETFs and mutual funds having to, you know, divest these positions and and remove them from their their funds.

所以这既会造成一定程度的恐慌性抛售或情绪性抛售，也可以说是这些基金实际卖出股票带来的机械性抛售，间接影响比特币价格，并削弱MicroStrategy作为长期购买比特币催化剂的作用。

And so there would be both kind of panic selling a little bit or sentiment selling, I guess, if you will, but also mechanical selling by way of these funds actually selling the stock, which indirectly will affect the price of Bitcoin, and it'll sort of remove MicroStrategy as a long term, you know, catalyst for for buying Bitcoin.

要知道，过去几年里MicroStrategy在很大程度上或多或少支撑了比特币的价格。

You know you know, big MicroStrategy has largely held up the price of Bitcoin more or less over the last couple of years.

当然，还有其他因素存在。

Now, of course, there's been other factors.

比如ETF之类的。

There's been ETFs and things like that.

但MicroStrategy在过去两年比特币价格上涨中扮演了重要角色。

But MicroStrategy has been a big player in in the price appreciation of of Bitcoin over the last two years.

因此这实际上会让他们从未来的格局中出局，影响会相当重大。

And so it would effectively kind of remove them from the equation going forward, and it would be a pretty big deal.

目前市场已经消化这个预期了吗？

Now is that priced in?

我认为在很大程度上是的。

I would say yes to a large degree.

我觉得这已经反映在走势图上了。

I think that that, you know, that is reflected in the chart.

我们看到比特币出现了与股市不成比例、甚至很大程度上与整个加密货币市场都不成比例的异常大规模抛售。

We we, you know, we saw sort of major outsized selling of Bitcoin kind of disproportionate to stocks and disproportionate to even the the rest of crypto to a large degree even.

因此，市场情绪已经被消化了。

So that had the the sentiment has been priced in.

恐惧情绪已被消化，但这项规则通过的实际截止日期要到一月份。

The fear has been priced in, but the actual deadline for this rule to pass isn't until January.

我想是在1月15日左右，或者一月份的某个时候。

And, I think it's January 15 or somewhere in the January.

所以只有到那时，当规则真正通过后，那些基金才会被迫执行那些卖出指令。

And so it's only then at that point, once the rule actually passes, that those funds would then be forced to actually execute those sell orders.

这部分尚未被市场消化，因为我们甚至还不确定它是否会通过。

And so that part of it has not been priced in yet because we don't know if it's even gonna pass yet or not.

根据我读到的所有信息，它很可能会通过。

It's likely from what I everything I'm reading says it's it's very likely to pass.

大概有75%到80%的可能性会通过。

Like, there's a 75, 80% chance this is likely to happen.

所以接下来我们可能不得不面对这种情况。

So we're kinda gonna have to deal with this going forward.

这将成为现实，除非我们走运，它最终没有通过。

This is gonna be a thing, you know, unless we get lucky somehow, and and it it doesn't.

但我们必须基于它会通过的假设来行动。

But we have to operate on the assumption that I think it's going to pass.

因此我们将看到环境的变化。

And so we are going to see it's gonna be a change in the environment.

是的，这会很有趣。

And and, yeah, it's it's gonna be interesting.

显然，除了微策略之外，加密货币、ETF等还有更多事情在发生。

Obviously, there's more going on than just micro strategy in terms of crypto and and ETFs and all of that stuff.

所以还会有其他途径。

So there will be other avenues.

你可以说，自从ETF上线后，微策略的相关性就有所降低了，因为在那之前，它确实是许多传统金融人士接触比特币的主要方式。

You could argue that micro strategy is somewhat less relevant once the ETFs came online anyway because prior to that, that was really the big way that a lot of people in traditional finance got exposure to Bitcoin.

那曾经是最重要的渠道。

That was kind of the number one thing.

而一旦ETF问世，这在很大程度上削弱了它的作用。

And once the ETFs came along, it kind of negated a lot of that.

所以我不确定。

And so I don't know.

还有待观察。

It remains to be seen.

当然，这将阻止MicroStrategy未来继续大规模购入比特币。

Certainly, it's gonna prevent MicroStrategy from continuing to buy large swaths of Bitcoin going forward.

我们拭目以待吧。

So we'll we'll see how it goes.

这确实是件有趣的事。

It's it's an interesting thing.

然后你提到另一件事，关于政府资金可能在一月份需要重新安排。

And then and then you mentioned the other thing about the the government funding potentially having to be re redone again in January.

是的。

Yes.

确实如此。

That is a thing.

而且，这无疑是一个潜在的不确定因素，我们目前还无法预知。

Also, it's certainly an x factor looming out there, and we don't know.

就像，我不认为他们会再次让政府停摆。

It's like, I don't think they're gonna have another government shutdown.

我认为，若在短短几个月内再次发生政府停摆，对双方都将造成巨大的政治损害。

I think that would be hugely politically damaging for both sides to have yet another shutdown only a few months later.

因此，我认为他们会不惜一切代价避免这种情况发生。

And so I think that they will do everything they can to avoid it at all costs.

当然，在这种情境下，双方的利害关系将更为重大。

Certainly, the stakes will be much higher for both sides in that in that scenario.

所以他们很可能会通过某项法案，或者说，比上次通过的可能性要大得多。

So it's likely that they'll pass something or more likely, I would say, than certainly last time.

但是，没错，这依然是个问题。

But but, yeah, it it also remains a thing.

那么，你知道的，接下来问题是现在该买还是该等？

So, you know, then coming to should you buy now, should you wait?

我们在周一的节目里大概讨论过这个。

We kinda talked about this on the Monday show.

你看，我们有几个层次，几种我识别出的阻力位，我现在就是观察它在这段时间的表现如何。

You know, we've got several levels, several sort of resistance levels that that I identified, and I'm just kind of in the moment waiting to see how it fares over that time.

我认为，假设从现在到年底我们不会创下历史新高，可能是比较谨慎的做法。

I I think that it's probably it's probably prudent to operate on the assumption that we aren't going to set a new all time high between now and the end of the year.

你懂我意思吗？

You know?

我觉得我们这里会出现某种反弹，但我们不知道它会在哪个点位被拒绝。

I think that I think that we will have some kind of a reflexive bounce here, but we don't know the point at what it's going to be rejected.

所以如果你的想法是先观望，我会关注那些需要突破的重大阻力位。

So if your if your idea is to just kinda sit it out and rate, I would be looking for, like, major, major hurdles to be overcome.

比如，等我们突破牛市支撑带，或者突破200日均线，比如200日指数移动平均线和简单移动平均线。

Like, once we get past, say, the bull market support band or once we get past the the two hundred day moving averages, like the two hundred day exponential and, simple moving averages.

这里。

Here.

让我稍微整理一下。

Let me kind of clean this up a little bit.

比如这两条重要的移动平均线，200日指数移动平均线和简单移动平均线。

Like, these two big moving averages, the 200 EMA and SMA.

一旦价格能回升至该水平之上，那将是一个明确的关键阻力位突破，这时候或许可以考虑重新入场。

Once price can get back above that, that's sort of a good, clear hurdle, like, where, you know, maybe it's safe to get back in the water at that point.

而且理想情况下，当这些移动平均线也重新转为上行趋势时，那就更理想了。

And, ideally, once these moving averages are pointed back to the upside too, that's a thing.

所以我认为最佳策略是等待主要技术阻力位被突破，等待这些因素的结果逐渐明朗——无论是微策略公司的动态还是政府资金状况——然后再做决策。

So I think really the best way to play it is just to wait until major technical hurdles have been overcome, wait until we're starting to see some clarity in terms of the outcomes of those things and, you know, the the micro strategy situation, the the government funding situation, and go from there.

但在此期间，如果出现宏观经济催化剂导致价格飙升（这种情况有可能发生），那就静待那些关键阻力位的突破。

But in the meantime, if we do get some macro catalysts and price starts ripping, which is possible, then just wait for sort of those big those big hurdles.

比如200日指数/简单移动平均线，或者牛市支撑带——基本上就是20周移动平均线左右的位置。

You know, the two hundred day EMA, SMA, or the bull market support band, which is basically the twenty week moving average, more or less, you know, or or something like that.

或者比特币创下历史新高。

Or Bitcoin sets a new all time high.

显然，到那时，我们知道游戏某种程度上开始了。

Obviously, at that point, we know that kind of it's game on a little bit.

所以，是的，我认为现在需要谨慎行事，尤其是如果你已经离场并寻找重新入场的时机，那么一定要等待，不要试图抄底。

So, yeah, I think it's time to be cautious right now, especially if you're out of the market and you're looking for a a point to buy back in, then definitely wait and don't try to catch the bottom.

不要试图接飞刀。

Don't try to catch the falling knife.

我认为在这种情况下，胜算并不站在你这边。

I think it's it's, the odds are not in your favor in that scenario.

所以目前无疑是个棘手的时期。

So it's tricky times at the moment for sure.

是的。

Yeah.

实际上，就在你说的时候，SportDad7777提出了一个关于MSCI微策略非常相似的问题。

And actually, just as you were you were as you were saying that SportDad seventy seven seven seven came in with a very similar question about the MSCI micro strategy.

所以支持这一点。

So support that.

如果你没听到克里斯的完整回答，可以回放这部分内容。

If you didn't hear Chris' full answer, just replay this back.

克里斯，现在说说看，因为我们RV社区里很多人曾经持有MicroStrategy股票，可能现在还有。

Now, Chris, now, like, say because we have a lot of people in the RV community that have had micro strategy at one point, probably still do.

你想对他们说些什么？

What would you say to them?

当然不是财务建议，但从你的角度来看，如果你现在持有MicroStrategy股票，你会考虑怎么做？

Obviously, not financial advice, but, like, from your perspective, if you were holding MicroStrategy right now, what would you be looking to do?

现在插播一条特别提醒。

So a quick break in your regular programming.

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If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called prepare for 2030.

我认为你有五年时间来尽可能多地赚钱，这份指南将帮助你应对即将到来的变化。

I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible, and this guide will help you navigate what's coming.

链接在描述里。

The link is in the description.

现在就下载吧。

Download it now.

这很棘手。

It's tricky.

老实说，我我我现在不想持有它。

Honestly, I I I wouldn't wanna be holding it right now.

存在存在存在巨大的抛售压力。

There's there's there's massive selling pressure.

就像我说的，无论是从情绪角度，还是从即将到来的恐惧——关于这个决定可能带来的结果——导致的抛售，此外还会有强制抛售，这些基金将不得不减持这些头寸，如果他们需要的话。

Like I said, both from a sentiment standpoint, from just, you know, selling the the fear that's coming into the potential outcome of this decision, but then there's also going to be the forced selling that will come from these funds having to, you know, divest these positions should they should they need to.

而且我听说，大约有20亿到80亿美元价值的MicroStrategy股票可能会受到这种强制抛售的影响。

And and there's anywhere I've heard anywhere from, like, 2,000,000,000 to 8,000,000,000 worth of MicroStrategy stock that could be impacted by that forced selling.

你必须记住，这些基金，他们不会——他们不在乎价格是多少。

And you have to remember, these funds, they don't they're not gonna they don't care what the price is.

他们必须卖出。

They have to sell.

他们在法律上有义务卖出。

They're legally obliged to sell.

所以无论如何他们都会卖出，这就是即将发生的事。

So they will be selling no matter what, and it it's just that's what's gonna happen.

你知道吗？

You know?

所以他们不会有什么策略性考虑，不会等待反弹或等待流动性达到某种特定状态。

And so it's not like they're gonna be strategic about it and wait and and wait for a bounce and wait for liquidity to be in a certain, you know, situation or anything.

他们就是必须卖出。

They they just have to sell.

所以，是的，这不是个好局面。

So, like, yeah, it's not a it's not a good situation.

显然，如果裁决对微策略有利，那将成为重大利好催化剂，至少在情绪面上，我们很可能会看到大幅反弹。

Obviously, if the rule is in favor of microstrategy, that's gonna be a significant positive catalyst, certainly from a sentiment standpoint, and we'll we'll likely see a pretty big bounce.

但目前我们知道，再次强调，胜算并不在他们这边。

But right now, we know, again, the odds are not in their favor.

你知道，人们都说有75%到80%的可能性会发生这种情况。

You know, the the people are saying it's a 75, 80% chance that this is very likely to happen.

之所以很可能发生，是因为你必须明白——问题不在于MSCI不喜欢比特币，也不是他们故意针对微软，或者试图为传统金融体系争一口气之类的。

And kind of the reason it is likely to happen is it's you have to what's going on here is it's not because the MSCI doesn't like Bitcoin, and they're just trying to stick it to Microsoft or they're trying to, you know, you know, one up for TradFi kind of thing.

这实际上只是基于他们的通用模型，而他们的模型设计初衷就是追踪运营性公司。

It's really just based on their their general model, and and their model is such that, like, they they're designed to track operating companies.

这就是他们的职能所在。

Like, that's what they do.

基本上就是那些制造产品或提供服务的商业实体。

Businesses that make or provide services, basically.

所以如果一家公司的主要资产是金融工具——比如与某种资产一比一挂钩、运作方式更像ETF或封闭式基金，而非基于该公司产品或服务的资产——那么它就不符合被纳入的资格要求。

And so if a company's primary asset is, you know, a financial instrument, like a that moves one to one with the asset and basically functions more like an ETF or a closed end fund and not on the basis of that company's product or service, then it doesn't, you know, meet the the requirement to be listed, you know, there.

所以事情就这么简单。

And and so it's really as simple as that.

如果你的主要资产中比特币或其他资产占比超过50%，那就有问题了。

If you've got more than 50% of your if your primary asset in in Bitcoin or anything else, that's a problem.

所以，不仅仅是微策略公司面临这种情况。

And so, and it's not just micro strategy that falls into that boat.

他们是最大的例子，但还有比特币矿业公司。

They're the biggest one, but, you know, there there's Bitcoin mining companies.

还有其他资金库也会受到这一规定的影响。

There's other treasuries that will also be impacted by that.

因此在这个情形下，它们同样会被摘牌。

And so they too will be delisted also in this scenario.

所以，现在你确实需要对资金库保持警惕。

So, yeah, you wanna certainly be wary of treasuries right now.

这对整个比特币资金库领域可能是个重大阻碍。

This could be a big bump in the road for Bitcoin treasuries in general.

但有一类公司不会受影响，就是那些资产负债表上有比特币但占比不足50%的企业，比如特斯拉就是个例子。

It's not going one thing it won't impact is, like, companies that have Bitcoin on their balance sheets, but it doesn't equate to 50% or more, Say, like, Tesla, for example.

我们知道特斯拉持有大量比特币，但这远未达到其资产负债表的50%。

We know Tesla holds a large position in Bitcoin, but it's nowhere close to 50% of their balance sheet.

你知道吗？

You know?

所以他们不会被强制采取任何措施。

So they won't be forced to do anything.

他们没问题。

They're fine.

这些公司持有大量比特币，其股价基本与比特币价格同步波动，这才是问题的核心。

It's really just these companies that hold large amounts of Bitcoin whose stock basically moves in step with the price of Bitcoin as a result.

因此，这正是问题所在。

And so that's that's where the problem lies.

所以MSCI正试图与这类情况保持距离。

And so that's that's what the MSCI is looking to sort of distance themselves from.

这就是目前的状况，看起来确实不太乐观。

And so that's the situation, and it doesn't really look good.

对于MicroStrategy或其他持有大量比特币的公司来说，在这种情境下很难通过谈判摆脱困境或找到合理的变通方案，你懂的。

It's gonna be hard for MicroStrategy or any of these other treasuries to negotiate their way out of this or find a logical sort of workaround, you know, in this scenario.

所以这会很有意思。

So it'll be it'll be interesting.

是啊。

Yeah.

这是我们在1月份需要密切关注的事情，随着日期临近。

Something we have to watch for in January as this approaches.

不过当然，在此之前我们可能会陆续收到更新、传闻之类的消息，我们肯定会在这里跟进报道，因为无论你是否持有MicroStrategy股票或比特币，这都将对加密货币领域产生重大影响。

But, of course, we'll probably be getting updates or, like, rumors and all of that, you know, leading up until then, which, of course, we'll we'll be sure to cover here as well because this is gonna be a very impactful thing in crypto one way or the other, regardless of whether you hold MicroStrategy or not, whether you hold Bitcoin or not.

没错。

Right.

那么Chris，最后一个问题。

So, Chris, last question on it.

所以如果你要站队的话——我猜你知道——我想我能猜到你的立场倾向。

So if you are taking so which side of the I guess, you know, you you I guess I can guess where you're going with it.

但如果你要在Poly市场或Myriad市场上押注，你会选择站在哪一边？

But if you're taking this on poly market or myriad markets, which which side of it are you going to to to place your money on?

嗯，我认为你必须基于MicroStrategy不会占优的假设来操作。

Well, I think you you you have to operate on the assumption that it's not gonna go in the favor of MicroStrategy.

我是说，在这种情况下还妄想出现奇迹就太愚蠢了。

I mean, it would be it would be stupid to, you know, bet on some hopium in that scenario.

当然，如果你押注了大量资金，从风险管理角度出发，你必须假设这种情况会发生。

Certainly, if you've got a lot of money at stake, I think that, you know, for just from a a risk management perspective, you need to operate on the assumption that this is going to happen.

如果最终没发生，那再好不过。

And if it doesn't happen, great.

你就当是走运了。

You get you get lucky.

你可以在消息公布时买入，重新进场之类的。

You can buy on the announcement, jump back in, whatever.

但如果你只是坐在这里想着，我要赌那25%的概率，指望事情会圆满解决。

But, if you are just sitting here going, well, I'm gonna I'm gonna take the 25%, you know, chance and and hope that this all works out.

那么，你知道你能从中得到什么好处呢？

And, you know, what do you have to gain from that?

当然，你可能会有些上涨空间。

Like, sure, you got some upside.

价格可能会回到原来的水平。

It'll kinda get back to maybe where it was.

但下跌的风险是价格会暴跌。

But the downside is the price craters.

不仅是MicroStrategy的股价会受影响，连比特币也可能受到波及。

Not only the, you know, the the price of MicroStrategy, but even Bitcoin probably is gonna be impacted by that as well.

不过要记住，比特币受到的影响会相对较小。

Bitcoin now keep in mind, Bitcoin will be impacted less.

比特币本身面临的直接抛售压力会更小，因为MicroStrategy在这种情况下不需要卖出他们的

There will be less direct selling pressure on Bitcoin itself because, again, MicroStrategy does not have to sell their Bitcoin in this scenario.

只有他们的股票会被抛售。

Only their stock will be sold.

所以这更像是比特币直接引发的情绪崩盘。

And so it's not it's it's more of like a sentiment crash from the Bitcoin side directly.

因此它可能会产生负面影响，因为我们知道未来来自这些财政部的购买将会减少。

And so but it will probably have a negative impact because we know going forward that there's gonna be less buying coming from these treasuries.

所以它可能会改变传统金融机构如何获得比特币敞口的结构。

And so it might change the structure around how how TradFi, you know, gains exposure to Bitcoin.

不过话说回来，我对过去一年出现的所有这些财政部举措还是有点拿不准。

Although, again, I kinda think it's a little I don't know about all these treasuries that have come up over the last year.

我仍然认为ETF显然是更纯粹的投资方式。

I still think the ETF is obviously a much more pure play.

所以我很难理解这些国债为何会如此重要。

And so I struggle to see how these treasuries are as relevant as they are anyway.

我们知道它们持有的比特币远少于ETF，但长期来看或许没问题。

We know they're a lot less than the ETFs in terms of owned Bitcoin, but maybe in the long term, this will be okay.

你懂我意思吧？

You know?

也许我们只需将国债从市场中清除，短期内会造成一些波动。

Maybe we just flush the market of the the treasuries, and it'll it'll create some volatility in the short term.

但最终，人们还是会转回ETF，资金总会以某种方式回流。

But in the end, people will just migrate back over to ETFs anyway, and that money will, you know, rotate back in one way or another.

我...我不确定。

I I don't know.

好吧，我们肯定会继续关注这件事。

Well, we'll keep an eye on it for sure.

好的。

Alright.

那么结束前，或许我们应该看看社区里一些热门图表？

So maybe we should before we end here, maybe we should look at a few popular charts from our community Sure.

虽然他们可能没有直接询问，但我们可以主动帮他们分析这些图表。

That they, you know, wanna probably dive into even even though they might not have asked us directly, but we can front run for them.

那我们就来看看Solana、SWE、HYPE、BNB和XRP的情况如何？

So why don't we take a look at what Solana, SWE, HYPE, you know, BNB, XRP?

我们或许可以快速浏览一下，看看它们现在表现如何。

Let's, you know, maybe at a quick glance, see what they're doing, see how they're holding up right now.

好的。

Yeah.

好的。

Yeah.

我们就大概过一遍，看看现在是什么情况。

Let's do kind of a just a general run through and see what we got here.

我来调出一些移动平均线。

So I'll turn on turn on some moving averages.

哎呀。

Oops.

好的。

Okay.

我们刚才看了比特币。

Well, we looked at Bitcoin.