史上最大规模的财富转移正在进行——黄金与白银将暴涨

这里是富爸爸广播节目，关于金钱的好消息与坏消息。有请罗伯特·清崎。

This is the rich dad radio show, the good news and bad news about money. Here's Robert Kiyosaki.

大家好。我是罗伯特·清崎，富爸爸广播节目主持人。今天我不是从亚利桑那州的斯科茨代尔向您播报，而是来自德克萨斯州的盖恩斯维尔。今天我还邀请到一位特别的嘉宾。

Hello. Robert Kiyosaki, rich dad radio show. And, today, I'm not coming to you from Scottsdale, Arizona. I'm coming from a place called Gainesville, Texas. And, I'm a very special guest today.

这位堪称当今教父级人物——里克·鲁尔。每次见到他，我都对他渊博的学识深感敬畏。他在金银矿业领域备受尊崇，我的温哥华合伙人马林·卡图萨对里克也推崇备至。

This guy is the godfather right now. His name is Rick Rule. And every time I see him, I'm in awe of how much I learned from him. And he's extremely respected in the mining field, gold and silver. My partner, Marin Katusa, out of Vancouver, speaks so highly of Rick.

我上次见到里克应该是在《反叛资本家》活动中，没想到今天能在这里重逢。里克，能邀请您参加富爸爸节目是我的荣幸，非常感谢。

And I last saw Rick, I think, in Rebel Capitalist. And now I meet you here. Rick, And it's an honor to have you on the Rich Dad Show. So thank you.

不，罗伯特，这是我的荣幸。我是《富爸爸穷爸爸》的忠实读者。节目开始前我说过，像你我这样的老一辈人，有责任

Well, my honor, Robert. I'm a huge fan of that book, Rich Dad Poor Dad. Before we went on the air, I said I sort of think it is the obligation of old folks like you and I

去帮助

to prepare

年轻一代做好准备，教导他们应对我们将在经济和政治经济领域留给他们的烂摊子。非常感谢你能向年轻人传授这些常识。

the younger generation to teach them for the mess that we're leaving them, in terms of the economy, and the political economy. So thank you so much for for just talking common sense to young folks.

谢谢。你看过劳伦斯·拉帕德的《大字版》这本书吗？

Thank you. Have you seen, Lawrence Laparde's book, The Big Print?

我看过。我...我看过。你的书更容易理解。人们应该先读你的书再读那本，但它很重要，是这个知识体系中重要的一环。

I have. I I have. Your your book is more accessible. People should read your book before they read that book, but it's important. It's an important part of the continuum.

是啊。最近有件事特别重要，里克，当时我举着1965年版的半美元硬币，发现它不再是银制的而是铜制的。作为一个墨西哥人，我不禁想问：¿Qué pasó?（发生了什么？）他们到底在干什么？这就是格雷欣法则的体现。到了1971年，我作为海军陆战队直升机飞行员从越南出任务...

Yeah. So just recently, Rick, is so important is because, I think with 65, I was holding up a half dollar and it was no longer silver, it was copper. And as a Mexican to say, Que paso, what are they doing? And that was Gresham's Law. And then in 'seventy one, I as a marine helicopter pilot and we're flying out of Vietnam.

我居然跑到敌后去买黄金——这证明陆战队员确实不是地球上最聪明的人。里克，我们解除了武装，我和副驾驶举起双手穿过村庄，声明我们不是以军人身份来的...

And I went to buy gold behind enemy lines proving marines aren't the smartest guy on earth. And I walked up to this little I was behind enemy lines. Rick, we disarmed my co pilot and I. We put our hands up and walked through the village. And we said, we don't come as marines.

我们是以资本家身份来的，只想买些黄金。走进竹棚时，那些当地人嚼着槟榔的牙齿血红发亮，他们告诉我金本位刚取消，金价正从35涨到50美元...

We come as capitalists. We just wanna buy some coal. And we walked up to this little bamboo shack and those little Bethlehemisms, what was on their teeth were bright red because of the beetle nuts and gold. They said they'd just taken gold off the gold standard. It was going from 35 to 50.

我以为能砍价，结果被上了一课，里克。那个老板娘教育我说：'现货！只卖现货！'

So I thought I could get a discount. And I got schooled, Rick. She schooled me. She goes, Spot. Went, tell Spot.

她反复强调'现货'，所以我那天空手而归。不过人开始干蠢事时总能学到很多——后来我去香港买了第一枚南非克鲁格金币，结果发现得偷运回美国...

And she goes, Spot. So I didn't get any gold that day. But also, you learn a lot when you start doing stupid things. I went to Hong Kong and I bought my first Krugerrand from South Africa. And then I found out I had to smuggle it into The States.

我是说，你能想象吗，里克？我的意思是，这就是我的年纪。那时候，美国人持有黄金是非法的。而最近我从日本回来时，他们不在乎我是否携带芬太尼，却关心我有没有带黄金。

I mean, could you imagine that, Rick? I mean, that's how old I am. Said, Gold was illegal for Americans to own. And then the last thing, Rick, I was coming out of Japan not too long ago, and they didn't care if I was carrying fentanyl. They wanted to know if I was carrying any gold.

所以这是个很长的引子来介绍我的朋友里克·罗尔。在获取市场信息、建议和趋势方面，他是我信赖的人。欢迎来到富爸爸广播节目，彼得。

So it was a long way of introducing my friend, Rick Roll, here. He's a guy I look to, when it comes to information and advice and trends in the marketplace. So welcome to the Rich Dad Radio Show, Peter.

很荣幸参与节目。这些轶事很有趣，因为它们蕴含了太多教训。黄金作为交换媒介和保值手段的普世吸引力——我在越南敌后、委内瑞拉与巴西边境都买过它。

Pleasure to be with you, as I say. It's, those, anecdotes are interesting because there are so many lessons there. The universal appeal of gold is a medium of exchange that's similarly a store of value. Biden Hong Kong, buy it what was behind enemy lines in Vietnam. I've, bought it, on the Venezuelan Brazilian border.

相同的情况。他们特别熟悉现货市场。另一个教训是：你以为政府希望你自由幸福，除非你引入竞争性货币——那样你就成了罪犯和叛徒。

The same circumstance. They knew Spot, particularly well. A different ledge a a different lesson is that you think your government wants you to be free and be happy, unless you bring a competing currency into the realm, in which case you're a criminal and a traitor.

确实如此。

That's correct.

罗伯特，你刚才讲的故事里有很多启示，关键在于观察角度。我晚年花很多时间向年轻人解释持有贵金属的重要性。比如摩根大通数据显示，贵金属仅占美国人储蓄和投资资产的0.5%，远低于四十年均值2%。首要启示是：如果我们讨论的其他情况发生，黄金市场份额至少会回归均值甚至超额反弹。希望听众首先思考需求翻四倍对价格的影响。

Many lessons, in the story you just told, Robert, if you view those lessons from the right prism. You know, I spend a lot of time in my declining years explaining, as you do, the efficacy of owning precious metals to young people. JPMorgan Chase, as an example, suggests that precious metals comprise less than one half of 1% of the total savings and investment assets of Americans, down, by the way, from a four decade mean of 2%. The first lesson there is that if the rest of the things we talk about for the rest of our interview come to pass, it is likely that the market share of gold at least reverts to mean or perhaps overshoots. I'd like your audience to, first of all, think about what a fourfold increase in demand would do to price.

我还没聪明到能给出答案，但请你们发挥想象力——价格由供需差额决定。想象仅仅是回归均值带来的四倍需求潜在影响，值得深思。

I'm not smart enough to give you the answer to that, but I leave it to you to use your imagination, understanding that prices are set on the delta between supply and demand. Imagine the potential impact of a fourfold increase, which is merely a reversion to mean. Interesting points to ponder.

当你说均值回归时，对普通人来说这意味着什么？

What do when you say reversion to mean, what does that mean to the average person?

摩根大通指出，过去四十年间，贵金属及贵金属相关证券在所有资产类别中的中位数或平均市场份额为2%。现在仅为0.5%。因此，若黄金仅需恢复其过去四十年的平均市场份额，其需求量将增长四倍。

JPMorgan Chase suggests that over the last four decades, the median or mean market share of precious metals and precious metals related securities relative to all other asset classes was 2%. Now it's half a percent. So if gold gained enough favor merely, to return to its average market share over the last four decades, demand for the stuff would grow fourfold.

没错。而且要知道——如果我记错了请纠正——摩根大通那位说过：黄金才是货币，其他都是信用。再问一次，对普通人而言，均值回归中的'信用'指什么？

Right. And this all and, you know, JPMorgan was a guy correct me if I'm wrong. He says, gold is money. Everything else is credit. And again, when the reversion to mean the average person, what does that mean credit?

就是债务。

It means debt.

确实

That's

正确。这正是1971年尼克松让美元脱离金本位时发生的事。我当时就想：他到底在干什么？结果美国国债变得和黄金等价，这引发了历史上最严重的恶性通胀之一。

correct. That's what happened in '71 when Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard. I went, what the hell is he doing? And the US Treasury with a bond became as good as gold. And that caused one of the biggest hyperinflations in history.

我和里克这些'黄金虫'还活在黑暗时代。但黄金就是货币——白银也该归入此类，因为我认为白银比黄金更早成为货币。说到这个，1965年我举着肯尼迪半美元硬币问：为什么它是铜制的？你懂我意思吧？

Rick and I are these gold bugs who are still in the dark ages. But gold is money. Put silver in that category because silver was money before gold, I believe, and all this. And that said in '65, I'm holding up a half dollar with Kennedy on it going, why is it copper? Do you know what I mean?

为什么是铜？

Why is it copper?

要知道，伪造货币至少可以追溯到格莱纳留斯时期。认识到这一点很重要。只是政府的技术在进步。现在他们能伪造货币100%的价值。过去他们只会剪边或改变合金成分。

You know, counterfeiting goes back at least as far as glenarius. You know, it's it's important to recognize that. It's just that government technology is getting better. Now they counterfeit a 100% of the value of the currency. There was a time when they clipped the edges or they changed the alloy.

但政府比过去高效多了。他们现在是大规模掠夺而非小打小闹。如果你看看当今的其他承诺，

But governments are much more efficient than they used to be. They steal wholesale as opposed to retail. If you you look at the other promise today,

也就是，

which is,

比如说美元，它本质上——过去是印在纸上的梦想套餐，现在是通过点击生成的梦想数据包。我认为让人们明白这点很重要。不是说美元会失去交易媒介功能，但若同时要求它具备价值储存功能，作为交易媒介的效率就会越来越低——罗伯特你是知道的，但很多人不清楚。你把所有其他交易形式都视为债务，这很有趣。

say, a US dollar, literally, well, it used to be a package of dreams painted on a piece of paper. Now it's pack a packet of dreams clicked into existence. And I I I it's really important, I think, that people know that. Not that not that the dollar will cease to function as a medium of exchange, but it's an increasingly inefficient medium of exchange if you also ask it to be a store of value, Robert, as you know, but many people don't. It's it's interesting that you talk about all other forms of exchange as debt.

因为对美国民众而言，债务这个概念最能帮助他们理解黄金。在反叛资本家大会——戈尔曼的会议上，我讨论过美国的数学问题。提到我们的资产负债表负债已超过37万亿美元，现在相当于GDP的120%对吧？1982年时（为便于理解大数字），表内负债仅占GDP的32%。

Because I think for Americans, debt is the concept that will lead to the best understanding of gold. The rebel capitalist conference, Gorman's conference, I talked about the math of America. I talked about the fact that our on balance sheet liabilities exceed $37,000,000,000,000, which is now, what, a 120% of GDP? Right. In 1982, to put a large number in con in con con context, the on on balance sheet liabilities were only 32% of GDP.

所以我们从占GDP的32%增长到了近130%。

So we've gone from 32% of g d GDP to almost a 130% of GDP.

马马虎虎吧，里克，里克，你所有的经验对你意味着什么？比如当有人说债务占GDP的120%，那是罗比夫·莱因哈特那些理论，但对普通美国人来说，你现在说的简直是天书。

So so, Rick, Rick, all your experience, what does that mean to you? You know, like, when somebody says it's a 120% of GDP and that was Roboff Reinhart and all that stuff, But the average American, you must be speaking Chinese right now.

每个美国人都该读读这段精彩的丘吉尔名言。抱歉说错了，是海明威名言。有人问他明明有收入怎么会破产。

The average American should read this wonderful Churchill quote. Not Churchill. I'm sorry. Hemingway quote. They were asked how he went broke when he had all the income.

他只说了两个字

And he said, only

起初很慢，然后突然就崩了。普通美国人还需要注意——虽然几乎没人关注——比起资产负债表上的债务，更大的问题是未拨付福利的净现值。看看屏幕上的你我罗伯特，我们就是活生生的例子。

at first, then all of a sudden. Yeah. It's important for the average American to note too, and almost none of them pay attention to this, that the bigger problem rather than the on balance sheet debt is the net present value of unfunded entitlements. Look at you and I on the screen, Robert. We're poster boys for this.

医疗保险、医疗补助、你的军人养老金（我没有）、联邦政府养老金。国会预算办公室（不是我这个老顽固自由主义者里克·鲁尔）估计，未拨付福利项目的净现值已超过100万亿美元。1982年这个数字是GDP的90%，现在已是GDP的350%。

Medicare, Medicaid, military pension in your case, not mine, Federal government pension. It is estimated by the congressional budget office, not some cranky old libertarian, Rick Rule, but the congressional budget office, it's estimated that the net present value of unfunded entitlement problems problems. Programs, exceeds a $100,000,000,000,000. Now, again, this number in 1982 was about 90% of GDP. Now this number's 350% of GDP.

数字会更糟，罗伯特。我知道数学很无聊，但请听众们注意：国税局估算美国全民净资产总值约141万亿美元。若将美国政府表内债务与表外未拨付债务相加，这个数字是131...抱歉，是130万亿美元。

And the math gets a little worse, Robert. I really want your listeners I know math is boring, but I want your listeners to listen to this. The IRS estimates that the private net worth, the aggregate private net worth of all Americans, is about a $141,000,000,000,000. And if you add the on balance sheet debt of the US government with the unfunded off balance sheet debt of the US government, that number's a 131 100 and pardon me. A 130,000,000,000,000.

用我们的总资产141万亿减去负债130万亿，仅剩11万亿盈余。怎么解困？我认为我们将见证美元贬值，进行一场不光彩的债务违约——这正是黄金的用武之地。千百年来，黄金既是交易媒介又是价值存储载体。

So you take what we're worth, a 141, minus what we owe, a 130, there's only 11,000,000,000,000 left over. Now how do we get out of this? What I figure we do is we preside over the devaluation of The US currency. We have a dishonest default, and that's where gold comes in. Gold for decade well, decades, for millennium, has been a medium of exchange that's simultaneously a store of value.

这是一个当你对政府债务失去信任时会去的地方。而数据表明，现在正是绝佳时机。

It's been a place that you go when you don't trust government debt. And the math suggests that this is a wonderful time.

不信任政府债务。为什么你们这些冷静的家伙总是悲观主义者。不过，好消息是——顺便恭喜你的研讨会，里克·鲁尔的，我听说反响极佳。而且你面对的是一群挑剔的听众。但好消息是，里克，越来越多的人开始倾听你的声音。

Not to trust government debt. Why you most cold guys are pessimists. But, anyway, the good news is and and by the way, congratulation on your symposium, Rick Rule's I've heard wonderful things about it. And you're playing to a tough audience. But the good news is, Rick, more and more people are listening to you.

你明白我的意思吗？这是好消息。正因如此，你举办这些活动、向大众讲述什么是真正的货币才能如此成功。所以祝贺你在这方面取得的成就。

Do do you know I mean? It's good news. So that's why you're so successful putting on these events and speaking to the masses about what real money is. So congratulations on your play there.

我们很希望明年能邀请罗伯特·清崎出席，让会议更精彩。所以请记住这个提议。

Well, we'd love to improve the conference last next year with the presence of Robert Kiyosaki. So keep that in mind.

我将深感荣幸。但无论如何，这是我的观点：这可能是致富的最佳机会。当美元贬值，所有法币——那些日元、比索、欧元之类的假钱都在贬值时，这可能是你快速致富的最大机遇。但你必须抛弃假货币，去参加里克·沃尔的会议。

I would I would be honored. But, anyway, this is the this is my point of view. This could be the best opportunity to get rich. I mean, as the dollar comes down and all fiat, you know, fake money, the Japanese yen, the peso, the euro comes down, this could be the biggest opportunity you'll ever have to get rich quick. But you gotta get out of fake money and go to Rick Walls conference.

稍后回来时，我们将深入探讨金融教育。但我永远是个乐观主义者，里克，因为我多年来一直储备金银却无人认可。他们总问我：'为什么不投资标普500？'

So we come back. We'll be going more into financial education. But I'm the eternal optimist because I've been saving gold and silver for years and getting no respect, Rick. No respect. And they kept saying, why don't you invest in the S and P five hundred?

我说：'我还有良知。'好了，广告之后我们将继续与里克·沃尔探讨，分析为何这是最佳机遇——如果你想快速致富，就是现在。马上回来，罗伯特·清崎的《富爸爸广播秀》，关于金钱的好消息与坏消息。

I said, I do have a conscience. Anyway, so we come back, we'll have more with Rick Wool and more about how this is the best opportunity. If you ever want to get rich quick, this is it. We'll be right back. Robert Kiyosaki, Rich Dad Radio Show, the good news and bad news about money.

今天我们要讨论的是关于金钱的好消息和坏消息。美元是假的，你知道吗？我写了本大部头叫《假象》。假钱、假导师、假资产。

And today really is about the good news and bad news about money. The US dollar is fake. You know? Wrote my big book called fake. Fake money, fake teachers, fake assets.

美国在1965年从银币中去除白银时就被欺骗了，1971年尼克松让美元脱离金本位时更是如此。所以我们今天的嘉宾是瑞克·鲍尔，一位我非常敬重的人。很高兴听说你的投资商业仍在掀起波澜，瑞克。但同时也要做个乐观主义者。

And America was sold a bill of goods in '65 when they took silver out of our silver coins. And in '71 when Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard. So our guest today is Rick Ball, a man of tremendous respect for. And I'm so happy to hear your investment commerce is still making waves out there, Rick. But also is to be an optimist.

正如安迪·谢克曼所说，一万亿是多少？大多数人并不清楚。安迪解释说，如果你每秒花一美元，要花三万两千六百八十八年才能花完一万亿，而现在我们点下鼠标就能花掉万亿。所以瑞克的会议是必去之处，这也是我帮他宣传明年会议的原因——越来越多人接受教育才是关键，这是最大的机遇所在。

You know, as Andy Schechman says, how much is a trillion? And most people don't know. You know what mean? And a trillion, according to Andy, says if you spent a dollar a second, it would take you thirty two thousand six hundred eighty eight years to spend a trillion dollars, and we do it now with a click of a mouse, a trillion. So Rick's conference is the place to go, And so that's why I helped him promote it for next year for him because more and more people getting educated is the way I mean, it's the biggest opportunity possible.

想快速致富？我从黄金转向金银投资，同时也是比特币狂热者。但任何脱离美元的资产都行。瑞克，请谈谈你明年的会议安排和具体情况吧。

You wanna get rich quick. I share from gold to gold and silver. I'm I'm a Bitcoin fanatic also. But anything outside of the dollar. So, Rick, please tell us about how, your conference and where it's at next year and all this stuff.

观众数量增长不错，罗伯特。这个会议已举办多年，三十年前我就在为Agora出版公司运营它了。

Well, the audience is growing fairly well, as you know. Robert, this conference has been going on a long time. I used to run it for Agora Publishing almost thirty years ago.

我知道。

I do.

说实话我记不清具体年份，但确实持续运营了三十年。参会人数逐年增长，客户满意度也很高。是的。

It's been, in continuous operation. Some people tell me thirty years. I can't remember, to be honest with you. But the year on year attendance growth is very good, and the customer satisfaction is very good too. Yeah.

据我所知，与世界上任何其他投资会议不同，我们为所有参会者提供无条件退款保证。换句话说，无论您亲临现场还是观看直播，如果您认为我们未能提供与票价相符的价值，我们将全额退款。您无需说明理由，只需表示‘我认为不值回票价’即可。

Unlike any other investment conference that I know of in the world, we offer all of our attendees a no questions asked money back guarantee. In other words, if you come to the conference either live or livestream and you don't think we give you your money's worth, we give you your money back. And you don't have to tell us why. Just say, you know what? I don't think I got my money's worth.

我们会立即退款。我之所以提及此事，是因为本次会议有超过600名付费现场参会者和1400名在线直播观众，总计2000余人。迄今为止，仅有两人（即千分之一的比例）申请了退款。因此我认为，面对无条件退款承诺仅出现0.2%的退款率，意味着客户满意度极高。就信息传播而言...

I give you your money back. I tell you this because we had over 600 paid live attendees and over 1,400, online livestream attendees. So over 2,000 people, and thus far, two people, one tenth of 1%, have asked for their refund. So I would assume that a two tenth of 1% response to an unconditional money back guarantee means that customer satisfaction was very high. In terms of spreading the message

而且...而且他们还是美联储银行的员工，所以才会要求退款。

They also they also also work for the Federal Reserve Bank, so that's why they want their money back.

我不想对他们妄加揣测。随便吧

I don't wanna cast aspersions on them. Whatever

无论出于什么原因

for whatever reason

无论他们以何种理由认为我们令其失望——这两位确实如此。但信息正在持续扩散。需要指出的是：2024年会议现场参会者约400人，而本次达到600人。

for whatever reason they say, we failed them, both of them. The message is spreading. I think it's important to note that. The two thousand twenty four conference had about 400 live attendees. This had 600 live attendees.

2024年会议的直播观众为670人，而本次接近1500人。这种增长趋势在我的数据库其他领域也有体现——乡村投资管理订阅用户现已突破9.2万双重认证用户，其中1.4万人定期参与乡村课堂。可见贵金属与自然资源领域的受众群体正在持续扩大。

The two thousand the two thousand twenty four conference had 670 livestream attendees. This one had almost 1,500 livestream attendees. And those those growth statistics are reflected elsewhere in my database. The Rural Investment Management subscriber database, now exceeds 92,000 double opt in subscribers, and 14,000 people are regular attendees to the rural classroom. So the, the audience around precious metals and natural resources, is expanding.

罗伯特，另一个有趣的现象是，正如你多年来服务这个社区所了解的。多年来，这个社区的成员都像我这样——年老、秃顶、肥胖、白人、富有。你懂吧？是的。

The other interesting thing that happens, Robert, and you know this for years serving this community. For years, the community looked like me. Old, bald, fat, white, rich. You know? Yeah.

人口结构正变得越来越年轻化，越来越国际化。今年通过线上参会的就有来自33个国家的与会者。是的。而且在我人生中首次，我们服务的新订阅用户中有30%是女性。

The demographic is getting much more young. It's getting much more international. There were attendees from 33 countries at the conference this year via live. Yeah. And for the first time in my life, the new subscribers to our services are 30% female.

我们从未在黄金领域见过年轻女性，但现在我们看到年轻女性以国际化的背景涌入逆向投资、逆向证券、贵金属和自然资源领域，规模之大前所未有。我从未见过这样的景象。

We've never seen young women in the gold space, but we're seeing young women come into contrarian investing, contrarian securities, precious metals, and natural resources from an international base in really truly unheralded levels. I've never seen anything like this.

没错。但关键在于要对这个趋势保持极度乐观，如果你想快速致富，千万别错过这班船。明白我的意思吗？它现在就要启航了。如果你还在存法定货币或假钱——虽然这么说对日本人很抱歉。

Right. But the thing is of this to be very optimistic, if you ever wanted to get rich quick, don't miss this boat. Do know what I mean? This it's it's shoving off right now. And if you're still saving fiat or fake money like, hate to say this being Japanese.

日本人爱存现金，痴迷现金。而我总是存黄金白银。当我明白尼克松的所作所为，以及约翰逊如何将白银从硬币中移除后，我就说：为什么要存法定货币这种假钱？那算是我的觉醒时刻，而我不存现金只存金银的做法让我变得非常富有。

Japanese, they save cash, and they love cash. And I've always saved gold and silver. And I just once I understood what Nixon was doing and what took Johnson took the silver out of our coins, I said, why would you save fiat, fake money? And that was kind of my wake up call, and I've gotten very rich just because I don't save cash. I save gold and silver.

这就是区别所在。

And that's that's the difference.

我认为这个趋势的证明不仅仅是去年黄金表现良好。长期以来，这类节目的观众总问我黄金何时会波动。我会故作高深地摸着下巴说：罗伯特啊，我觉得黄金会在二月波动。其实它已连续25年保持9%的复合增长率。

I think the, the demonstration of that isn't just this last year where gold was done well. People on shows like this for a long time asked me when gold was gonna move. And I'd scratch my chin sagely, Robert. And I'd say, well, I think gold's gonna move in the year February. It's up 9% compounded for twenty five years.

黄金具有双重意义。其一在于避免缓慢地陷入贫困。其二，若你具备进取心且能承受风险，白银在牛市真正启动时往往能超越黄金的表现；或者，若你愿意付出努力投资金矿股或银矿股——这些标的虽风险与波动性更大，但通常能跑赢金属本身——正如你所言，这千真万确。任何观察过XAU指数或贵金属指数走势的人都会明白，当真正的贵金属牛市来临时，其上涨波动性几乎超越地球上任何其他金融市场。

Gold is two things. Gold is about not getting poor slowly. And if you're aggressive and if you can afford to be aggressive aggressive in silver, which tends to outpace gold when a bull market really truly gets underway, or and if you're willing to work hard, and invest in the gold stocks or silver stocks, which tend to even outpace the metal, albeit with much greater risk and much greater volatility, what you say is very, very, very true. Anybody who looks at the graph of the XAU or any of the gold and silver indexes understands that when you move into a real precious metals bull market, the upside volatility is unlike almost any other financial market on the planet.

正如你所说。如何获得更多？开始时缓慢，然后突然爆发。但反过来说也成立——虽然我不愿提及这点。

Well, it's exactly as you said. How do you get more? Slowly at first and then suddenly. Well, it works the other way too. I hate to say this.

我要说句大不敬的话，Rick。我卖出了价值450万美元的黄金，但我的成本价是300美元。明白我的意思吗？我用现金全款买了房子。当我走进这栋房子时——

I'm gonna say something very sacreligious, Rick. I sold 4,500,000.0 in gold, but my basis cost was 300. Do you know what mean? And I paid cash for my house. So I walked into this house.

我当场就决定买下。我的黄金储存在列支敦士登，因为我不想重蹈1933年黄金被没收的覆辙。所以我直接支付了450万美元，而我的成本仅是45万美元，这取决于购买时机。你今天的观点完全正确。

I said, I'll take it. And my gold is stored in a place called Liechtenstein because I don't want to be in 1933 again where they take my gold. So I just walked in and I said, I'll take So I paid 4,500,000.0. My basis is 450,000 just because of when I bought it. And your day your day is exactly correct.

当初成本是2000美元。明白我的意思吗？

It was 2,000. Do know what mean?

这是极其重要的教训。我长期坚持做一项思维实验：用黄金和美元双重记账来记录收入、净资产及支出，自今年二月起实施。这种做法会让你震惊地发现，以黄金恒量标准衡量，食品和汽油价格竟如此低廉。

Hugely important lesson. But one of the things I do is I maintain an alternative statement of account as a as a thought exercise, and I have since the year February, measuring my income, my net worth, and my expenses in both gold and dollars. And if you do that, what you're struck by is how cheap food is, how cheap gasoline is. If you measure it in the golden constant

确实。

Yeah.

二月份黄金价格是每盎司250美元、255美元。你对黄金储蓄和美元储蓄之间的价值差异感到震惊。

Price of gold was at 250, $255 an ounce in February. You're astonished, by the difference in value between your gold savings and your dollar savings.

是啊。你知道，今天，黄金价格是3400美元。而二月份时大约是300美元。

Yeah. Today, you know, today, gold is $3,400. And in February, it was about 300.

没错。

Right.

而今天白银大约是38美元。我记得以前才1美元左右。咱们把这事说完吧。什么是骗子的定义？就是站在矿坑旁边说大话的淘金者。

And then today, silver's about 38. I remember it was a buck or something. And so let's finish up this. I'm a What's the definition of a liar? It's a gold prospector saying next to a hole.

我曾带领公司上市。我运作过一座银矿上市，后来卖给了山田公司。之后我又在中国运作了一座金矿上市，是在多伦多证券交易所。你猜怎么着？

And I've taken companies public. I took a silver mine public and then we sold it to Yamada. And then I took a gold mine public in China. I took it on the Toronto Stock Exchange. And guess what?

一个中国民族主义者。所以我再也不吃中餐了。你懂我意思吧？但里克，我是吃了苦头才明白国家风险这个词的含义。如果你在不尊重法治的国家做生意，对吧...

A Chinese nationalist. So I don't eat Chinese food anymore. You know what I mean? But Rick, I found out the hard way what the word country risk means. If you don't do business in countries that don't respect the rule of law, Right.

很简单。后来我和巴伦·卡图萨在盐湖城运作了一座金矿上市，我感觉踏实多了，因为是在美国本土。

It's very simple. And then I took a gold mine public with Baron Catoosa in Salt Lake City, and I felt a lot happier because we're on American soil.

我得说这取决于美国的具体位置。我个人经历过最大的政治风险，是发现一座预估蕴藏200万盎司黄金的矿脉，却不幸位于加利福尼亚人民共和国境内——就在加州与内华达州分界线错误的那七英里处。

I need to say it depends on where in American soil. The biggest single the biggest single experience biggest single experience with political risks that I've ever had personally was discovering, a mine that went under predicts 2,000,000 ounces of gold. Sadly, in the People's Republic Of California, seven miles on the wrong side of the California, Nevada line.

是啊。

Yeah.

这段经历我永生难忘。实际上，我在刚果受到的待遇都比在加州好。虽然我认同你关于美国法治观念的看法，但我个人更倾向待在得克萨斯、怀俄明、内华达或阿拉斯加这些州。

And that was an experience I will never forget. I've actually personally been treated better in Congo than California. Basically, I agree with you about the American concept of the rule of law, but I would Yeah. Prefer myself to be in Texas, Wyoming, Nevada, or Alaska as opposed to the other states.

所以这才叫乡村投资大会嘛。我喜欢你们这类有实干家参与的会议，懂吗？不是那种挤满基金经理人的场合。

Well, that's why it's the rural investment conference, and, I think I loved a bunch of conferences that you have real people there. You know? You don't have a bunch you don't have a bunch of fund managers.

能邀请到您将是我们的荣幸。

It'll be a pleasure to have you there.

这是我的荣耀。太棒了！我以前就是那种围着矿工转悠、跟他们唠嗑的家伙。不过...

I'd be honored. I love it. Fantastic. I've been one of the Brooke, I was one of those guys, putzing around, talking to the miners and all this. Think not.

我就是这么学到的——和矿工交谈。最后想问，现在人们热议白银，您怎么看？另外据我理解，行情通常是黄金先行，白银跟进，最后才是矿企？

But that's how I learned. I talked to the miners. Last thing I want to ask you is that people are talking about silver now, your opinion on that. But also, isn't there a this is what I understand. Gold goes first, then silver, then the miners.

我是说，差不多是这样。这不是关于点火顺序或先后的问题。

I mean, it's it's something like that. It's not the it's not the sequence or order of fire.

罗伯特，根据我的经验，黄金牛市和贵金属牛市是由黄金引领的。它们由实物需求和恐慌买家推动。

My experience, Robert, is that gold bull precious metals and bull markets are led by gold. They're led by physical and they're led by fear buyers.

是啊。是由那些悲观主义者推动的。

Yeah. They're led by people Pessimists.

也许是悲观主义者。也许不是。只是那些不喜欢法币计价证券算术的人。

Maybe pessimists. Maybe not. Just people who are don't like the arithmetic

嗯。

Yeah.

我就是其中之一。

Of fiat currency denominated securities. I'm one of them.

是啊，我也是。

Yeah. Me too.

当势头与金条开始扩大生产商的利润空间时，大型黄金股便会紧随其后。我们已目睹此景——Franco、Wheaton、Agnico、Eagle这些股票都在十二个月内翻倍。终有一天，这种走势与动能会吸引综合型投资者涌入黄金领域。没错。

When the momentum and the bullion begins to expand the producers' margins, the big gold stocks move next. And we've seen that. Franco, Wheaton, Agnico, Eagle, they've all doubled in twelve months. At some point in time, that movement, that momentum attracts the generalist investor into the gold space. Yeah.

而黄金市场规模如此之小，根本无法容纳这些资金。当这种情况发生时，领涨品种就会从黄金转向白银。顺便说一句，届时你根本不需要罗伯特·清崎或里克·鲁尔来提醒你转折点的到来。不，那将是一场极其、极其、极其戏剧性的重大事件。

And the gold space is so small, it can't accommodate the money. When that happens, leadership goes from gold to silver. And by the way, you will not need Robert Kiyosaki or Rick Rule to tell you when that happened. No. It's a truly, truly, truly dramatic dramatic event.

是吗？然后...

Is it? And then the

贵金属牛市的终结信号，是资金开始渗透到初级矿商和小型生产商。那些行情波动简直疯狂至极。参与其中需要深厚的知识储备和极强的纪律性。我估计约85%的初级矿企毫无价值，

the end of the precious metals bull market is when the money trickles down, into the junior miners and the junior producers. And those moves are truly insane. Playing it requires a lot of education. It requires a lot of discipline. I would suggest that probably 85% of the junior minors are valueless,

但剩下的15%，

but that 15%,

却能创造如此强劲的业绩，为这个极其粗放的行业赋予可信度甚至光彩。明白吗？你完美描述了资金流动链条。当综合资金涌入该领域后，白银时代就会到来。我们共同的朋友道格·凯西曾形容这种综合资金进入白银市场的场景——就像试图用花园水管抽干胡佛大坝。

they generate such robust performance that they had legitimacy and even luster to a very rough sector. Right? You you described the chain perfectly. Silver will come after when the generalist money comes down to the space. Our mutual friend, Doug Casey, described that event, the generalist money coming into the silver market, as attempting to siphon Hoover Dam through a garden hose.

他说话总是这么形象，对吧？确实。但另一个问题是——现在白银不是正面临短缺吗？我不断听到这类消息。伦敦金银市场协会(LBMA)的...

He has a way with words, doesn't he? He does. But but the other thing is this is that isn't there a shortage of silver? That's what I keep hearing. The LBMA London bullion.

他们实际上正在接收那批货物。

They're actually taking delivery of that stuff.

我认为短缺的真正原因在于存在过多的纸质合约。

I would argue that the shortage is really about the fact that there's too many paper contracts.

是啊，有些期货

Yeah. Some futures

市场，期货市场在很多天的交易量是九十天内可供实际交割的白银数量的200倍。那是一个杠杆极高的市场。如果你真的开始改变期货市场和现货市场之间的平衡，我不是说这会发生或不会发生。不，这就是短缺的根源所在。

markets the futures markets many days trade 200 times the amount of silver available for good delivery within ninety days. That's a really, really leveraged market. If if you really begin to change the balance between the futures market and the spot market, And I'm not saying that'll happen or it won't happen. No. That's what the shortage is all about.

目前

Right now

摩根大通不是因玩弄白银把戏被罚款了吗？

Wasn't JPMorgan wasn't JPMorgan fined for, playing games with solver?

你知道，人们说市场被操纵。所有市场都被操纵。只是白银市场体量太小，操纵的潜在代价——我不是指政府处罚，而是市场本身的惩罚——会非常高。我记得七十年代那十年，白银市场被操纵上涨，因为那是最容易操纵的方式。

You know, people say that the markets are manipulated. All markets are manipulated. It's just that the the silver market is so skinny that the potential, the potential penalty I don't mean governmental penalty. I mean market penalty for manipulation is extremely high. I remember the decade of the seventies when silver markets were manipulated up because that was the easiest way to manipulate them.

我怀疑交易部门会再次这么做，摩根大通就是其中之一。

And I suspect that trading desks will do that again. JP Morgan amongst them.

我记得，我记得，我清楚地记得亨特兄弟的事，你知道吗？

I remember I remember I'm so I remember the Hunt brothers. You know?

当然。

Sure.

有人把价格推到了50美元，然后黄金涨到了700。是的，我当时以为是梅维斯或唐纳德·特朗普之类的干的。天哪，我真是个天才。

Someone went to $50, and then gold went to 700. Yep. I thought it was I thought it was Mavis or Donald Trump or something. Geez. I'm from genius.

你明白吗？

You know?

我愉快地记得那件事。

I remember that with pleasure.

没错。所以，让我们毫不掩饰地宣传你的研讨会吧。我强烈建议大家去那里和真实的人交流，而不是基金经理。所以请大力宣传你明年的活动。

Yeah. So let's, please unabashedly promote your symposium. And I highly recommend people going there and speaking to real people, not a fund manager. So please promote your event for next year.

如果可以的话，任何对我关于自然资源观点感兴趣的听众都可以进行个性化定制。请访问我的网站 ruralinvestmentmedia.com，列出您的自然资源类股票，我将亲自为它们进行1到10的评级（1为最佳，10为最差）。如果我的意见有价值，我还会对个别股票发表评论。

And if I might, any of your listeners who like what I have to say about natural resources can personalize it. Go to my website, ruralinvestmentmedia.com. List your natural resource stocks, and I will personally rank them one to 10. One being best, 10 being worst. I'll comment in individual issues if I think my comments might have value.

这项服务完全免费。请访问 ruralinvestmentmedia.com 提交您的自然资源类股票清单。我将亲自评级，并为您发送会议相关信息。

It's absolutely free. Ruralinvestmentmedia.com. List your natural resource stocks. I personally will rank them and I will send you information about the conference.

没错。你根本不明白这意味着什么——多年前我第一次去温哥华考察金矿时，所有人都说'你肯定是最大的骗子，因为温哥华证券交易所是最糟糕的'。我在那里转悠时他们直接问'你是骗子吗？'我会借机发挥。但如果你针对我，这些全是胡说八道。

Yep. You have no idea what that means because when I was first up in Vancouver years ago looking at gold mines, That's what everybody says, You must be the biggest liar of all because there's no stock exchange worse than Vancouver. And I was cruising around up there and they said, Are you a crook? And I'll lend out. But it's such a lot of bullshit if you're on me.

生活就是这样，世事难料。那么你们的会议什么时候举办？感谢你提供评估股票的服务。

Lot lot of life, a lot of thing. So when is when is your conference? And thanks for offering that service of evaluating our stocks.

下一届会议将在2026年7月举行。需要说明的是，访问 rulesymposium.com 可以购买今年会议的录音资料，全年有效。我们提供全额退款保证。

The next conference is the July 2026. I should mention that if you go to rulesymposium.com, the recordings of this year's conference are Okay. Are for sale. You can use the recordings for the rest of the year. Absolute money back guarantee.

尽管试听。如果觉得不值？没问题，我们全额退款。

Play it. Don't think I gave you your money's worth? No problem. I'll give you your money back.

好的，非常感谢。里克老友，真的很感激。就像我说的，在这个充满骗子的行业里，人人都知道里克是备受尊敬的存在。

Well, thank you. Thank you. So my friend, Rick, appreciate it. You know, like I said, everybody wants you to know this. Rick is so respected in industry stacked with liars.

所以这是我所能给予的最高赞誉。如果你能在所有角色中脱颖而出，说明你做得很好。非常感谢您，先生。感谢您参与《富爸爸电台秀》。

So it's that's the highest compliment I can give you. If you can stand out amongst all the other characters, you're doing a good job. So Thank you so much, sir. Thanks for being part of the Rich Dad Radio Show.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢。我们将带着最终成果回来。再次感谢瑞克·罗尔。非常感谢。欢迎回来。

Thank you. And we'll come back with the final work. Again, Rick Roll. Thanks very much. Welcome back.

罗伯特·清崎，《富爸爸电台秀》。我要感谢瑞克·鲁尔，请访问他的网站。他对矿业股票的评估服务是无价的，正如我们之前讨论的，首先是黄金，黄金已经上涨，然后是白银，接着是矿业股票。但矿业股票可能是风险最高的，因为矿业公司的开支巨大且风险极高，但回报也极为丰厚。总之，感谢瑞克·鲁尔的分享。

Robert Kusak, The Rich Dad Radio Show. I wanna thank Rick Rule, and please go to his website. His his offer to evaluate, especially mining stocks, is priceless because as we talked about it first goes gold, and gold's already moved, then silver, and then mining stocks. But mining stocks are probably the highest risk of Just because mining stocks, the expenses are so high and the risk is so high, but the rewards are huge. So anyway, want to thank Rick Wool for that.

提醒大家，《富爸爸穷爸爸》的核心理念有三条：第一，储蓄者是输家，因为他们储蓄的是不断贬值的美元；第二，富人不为钱工作，他们为资产工作，因为货币本质上是废纸；第三，你的房子不是资产。这三条原则让我始终保持清醒。

And just to remind you, the reason Rich Dad was formed was because, if you read Rich Dad, Poor Dad, there were three rules why Rich Dad had was that number one was that savers were losers. And the reason they're losers is because they save US dollars. And the other one was your house is the rich don't work for money, they work for assets because money is trash. And the third is that your house is not an asset. And those three rules from our rich dad have kept me sane.

正如我所说，我刚以价值450万美元的房产成交，但实际仅花费了价值45万美元的黄金。当你持有现金时，房地产越来越贵；而持有黄金、白银或比特币时，房产反而变得更便宜。关键在于：每次增发伪钞，富人通过资产增值更富，而穷人和中产却因牛奶鸡蛋奶酪涨价和房贷压力变得更穷——这就是伪钞体系的根本问题。

And as I said, I just bought my last house and it was $4,500,000 but I paid for it with gold and the gold only cost me 450,000 So when you save cash, real estate gets more expensive. When you save gold or silver or Bitcoin, houses get less expensive. And the final word is this, every time you print fake money, the rich get richer and the poor and middle class get poor because the rich invest in assets. But the poor and middle class, their milk, egg, and cheese gets more expensive, as well as their house. So that's the problem with fake money.

再次感谢瑞克·鲁尔，请关注本次研讨会。感谢《富爸爸电台秀》的听众朋友们，我们下次见。

Once again, thank you to Rick Rule. Please check out this symposium, and thank you for being fans of the Rich Dad Radio Show. See you next time.

本播客由富爸爸传媒网络呈现。

This podcast is a presentation of Rich Dad Media Network.