人形家用机器人正逐渐走近现实

讨论让世界运转。

Discussion keeps the world turning.

这里是圆桌会议。

This is Roundtable.

你好。

Hello.

欢迎来到圆桌会议，我们将为您奉上中国及全球热点议题的激烈辩论。

Welcome to Roundtable, where we serve a piping hot debate on the issues that sizzle in China and beyond.

我是林叶好。

I'm Yeoho Lin.

人形机器人正迎来高光时刻。

Humanoid robots are having a moment.

从上海的生产车间到硅谷的网红展厅，栩栩如生的机器正走向聚光灯下。

From factory floors in Shanghai to viral showrooms in Silicon Valley, lifelike machines are stepping into the spotlight.

这不禁让人思考：这些机器人中哪些是真正的技术突破，哪些只是为打动投资者和社交媒体精心设计的模型？

Can't help but make you wonder which of these robots are truly capable breakthroughs and which ones are merely cleverly designed models designated to impress investors and social media.

随着中国将2025年定为人形机器人量产元年，全球竞争者纷纷加速产品上市，这个问题变得愈发紧迫。

As China sets 2025 as the first year of humanoid robot mass production and global competitors rush their own models to market, the question becomes more urgent.

我们距离真正迎来家用机器人还有多远？

How close are we really to welcoming a humanoid robot into our homes?

本期节目我们邀请到史蒂夫·哈瑟利和余迅。

For this episode, I'm joined by Steve Hatherley and Yu Xun.

现在请拿起你的虚拟指南针，跟随我们深入讨论核心。

Now grab your virtual compass and follow us to the heart of the discussion.

人类一直在制造工具，但这次，工具会回望我们。

Humanity has always built tools, but this time, the tool looks back.

随着人形机器人变得更灵活、更智能，它们迫使我们面对一个令人不安的问题。

As humanoid robots grow more agile and more intelligent, they force us to face an uncomfortable question.

当机器不仅在形态上与我们相似，还在能力、行为乃至最终在判断力上都趋近于人类时，会发生什么？

What happens when a machine begins to resemble us not just in shape, but in ability, in behavior, and eventually in judgment?

但在提出这个问题之前，我们首先应该问：我们准备好交出工厂钥匙，甚至洗碗机了吗？

But before asking that question, we should first ask, are we ready to hand over the factory keys or even the dishwasher?

这些所谓的智能机器人真的足够智能吗？

Are these really smart robots really smart enough?

它们真的如我们想象中那样高效可靠吗？

Are they really as efficient and reliable as we imagine?

我们是站在工业革命的边缘，还是仅仅在享受这十年来最盛大的技术演示？

And are we on the cusp of an industrial revolution or simply enjoying the greatest tech demo of the decade?

因此今天，我们将对人形机器人的发展阶段进行一次相对全面的现实检验。

So today, we are going to do relatively more comprehensive reality check on the development stage of humanoid robot.

虽然这个话题已经持续一年，但我们选择今天讨论有个重要原因——某则新闻已在网络上引发了激烈争论。

It has been a year for this, but we picked this show today for a good reason because a heated discussion on the Internet has been sparked by a specific news story.

是啊。

Yeah.

这款新发布的机器人确实引发了大量讨论。

This robot or this newly released robot has, like, raised a lot of discussion on it.

这其实是中国一家车企最新发布的人形机器人，最近受到了广泛关注。

This is a humanoid robot recently unveiled by a Chinese carmaker, actually, and it has drawn widespread attention recently.

多家外媒报道了此事，CN报道过，CNBC也报道了这个故事，那个机器人是小鹏或小鹏的新型人形机器人Iron。

Many foreign media outlets reporting this, CN reported it, CNBC cover this story, and that robot is Xpeng's or Xiaopeng's new humanoid robot, Iron.

是啊。

And yeah.

网上的争论是这样的。

The debate online was this.

那个机器人套装里面是人吗？

Is that a human inside that robot suit?

你有没有

Have you

你有没有检查过

have you checked

他们确实这么做了？

that they did?

当我看到这则新闻时还以为是个玩笑。

Thought it was a joke when I I saw the news story.

怎么能用那种方式指责一个真正的新闻发布会呢？

How can accuse a real, like, news press conference with that?

我看了一个澳大利亚博主对此的评论。

I watched an Australian vlogger's comments on this.

他参加了这个机器人的揭幕仪式，他说他在人群中问旁边的人，那是不是真人？

He was at the unveiling of this robot, and he said that he said in the crowd to the person next to him, is that a person?

他当时就在现场。

And he was there.

对吧？

Right?

当我看到时，我想，好吧。

When I watched it, I thought, okay.

这实际上是

This is actually

我明白你的意思。

I know what you mean.

对吧？

Right?

它并不完全像人类。

It's not fully fully like a human being.

行走非常缓慢。

The walk was very slow.

如果你还没看过——我相信我们的观众已经看过了，但以防万一，它的行走非常缓慢且刻意，几乎像模特走秀，但速度减半。

If you haven't seen it yet, which I'm which I'm sure our audience has, but just in case, the walk is very slow and deliberate, almost like a a model walking down a runway, but at half speed.

所以我理解为什么人们会觉得，哦，那真的很像人类，但在我看来，它同时仍带有一些机械的动作元素。

So I can see why people thought, oh, that's really quite human like, but at the same time, it still had some robotic element movements to it, in my opinion.

嗯，是的。

And be yeah.

我我我能理解人们这么说，也能理解你为什么这么说，史蒂夫，因为我认为当人们对此提出质疑时，是因为他们觉得这个机器人看起来像人类，而这个人类试图模仿

I I I can understand people are saying this, and I can understand why you said that, Steve, because I think when people are questioning about this, it's because they think it's if it it looks like a human in this robot and this this human is trying to mimic

对。

Right.

A

A

机器人行走。

robot walking.

是啊。

Yeah.

是啊。

Yeah.

确实。

Exactly.

这就是为什么说'是啊'。

That's why Yeah.

它如此逼真，看起来就像个真人。

It is so good that that that looks like a real human.

没错。

Yep.

不过谁会这么做呢？

Who does that though?

总之，我要说到重点了。

Anyways, I get to the point here.

就在那一刻，整个互联网开始讨论这项技术已经变得多么伟大——如果这确实是真的。

So that was the moment that the entire Internet started to talk about how great the technology is already becoming, if it's really true.

该公司CEO稍后甚至出面解释这确实是个人形机器人。

And the CEO of the company even came out a bit later to explain this is really a humanoid robot.

是的。

Yeah.

不仅仅是解释。

And not just explain.

他实际上发布了一段视频，展示了机器人的内部构造，包括肌肉部分——那些类似网格状的机械肌肉结构，这么做是为了证明它确实是机器人而非里面藏着人。

He actually released a video showing the inner workings of the robot, including the muscles, the the latticework muscles, lattice like muscles of the robot, and that was done to prove that it was really a robot and not a person inside.

没错。

Yeah.

他们甚至切开了机器人的腿部外壳，因为它外表穿着类似西装的外套，这让它在行走时看起来更像人类。

And they they even cut open the robot's leg covering because it was wearing like a suit on the outside, which made it look more like a like a person when it was walking.

他们在一次直播活动中切开那套外装，暴露出内部的机械组件。

They cut that suit open during a live event to expose the mechanical components inside.

但我们必须承认，我们接触并听闻人形机器人的概念已有很长时间，且其发展速度迅猛。

But we have to admit, we've been listening to and exposed to the idea of humanoid robots for a really long time, and it has been developing rapidly.

那么我们现在处于什么阶段？

So where are we now?

就人形机器人而言，现状如何？

Where are we when it comes to humanoid robot, well, status quo?

实际上对此已有大量讨论，许多会议都在探讨整个人形机器人行业的发展路径、推进方式以及当前是否已达到某种成熟状态。

Actually, there has been a lot of discussions on it, and many conferences are discussing the development of the whole humanoid robot industry and how we can develop it and whether it is the status quo.

因此在11月5日第八届虹桥国际经济论坛上，由工业和信息化部与商务部共同主办、中国电子学会承办的'人形机器人创新发展合作'分论坛召开，活动邀请了国内外知名专家及头部企业代表，共同研讨人形机器人产业现状、技术突破与应用前景，试图为这类智能动能融入新型工业化进程展开讨论。

So on November 5 at the eighth Hongqiao International Economic Forum, the sub forum is called innovation and development cooperation in humanoid robots was held and this event was jointly hosted by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and also the Ministry of Commerce and organized by the Chinese Institute of Electronics and it invited renowned domestic and also international experts and representatives from leading companies to discuss the current state of the humanoid robot industry, also technological breakthroughs and application prospects, trying to have or have a discussion on these kind of intelligent momentum into the new industrialization process.

如果你好奇为什么——我认为这是个合理的问题——为什么他们要让这些机器人看起来像人类？

If you're wondering why, and I think this is a fair question, why are they trying to make these robots look like people?

并不是很多机器人都会设计成人形。

Not a lot not every robot does look like a person.

是的。

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

而且有时候也没必要。

And sometimes it's not necessary.

但我稍微研究了一下，发现答案很有趣——人形机器人之所以设计成人类模样，

But I've I I did a little digging and I found the answer to be quite interesting because a humanoid robot is designed to resemble a person.

就是为了看起来像人。

It looks like one.

它有头、躯干、手臂和腿，具备人类的形态。

It has a head and a torso and arms and legs, and it has a human shape.

原因在于我们人类建造的世界本就是为人类服务的。

And the reason is because we humans built the world for humans, for other humans.

我们在进行建筑等决策时始终考虑这一点。

We had that in mind when we made our decisions on construction and other things.

既然我们的环境、建筑、工具和交通工具都是为拥有双手双腿的人类身体设计的，那么要在这样的人造世界里高效运作，机器人自然最好也采用人形。

And since our environment, our buildings, and our tools, and our vehicles, they're designed for a human body with two arms and two legs and hands, and therefore, the most efficient robots to operate in that world designed by humans is to be shaped like a human.

可以说它们就像是我们建造的世界里的钥匙。

They're kind of like a key, if you will, in a world that was built by us.

没错。

Yes.

这就是为什么一些专家认为人形机器人有望成为下一代超级终端。

That's why, like, some of these experts are saying that humanoid robot are expected to become the next generation of the super terminals Yeah.

继智能手机和新能源汽车之后。

Following smartphones and also new energy vehicles.

对。

Yeah.

超级终端，就像一体化接口那样。

The super terminal, like the all in one interface.

是的。

Yes.

因为最终我们希望人形机器人或机器人能替代那些我们不愿让人类去担任的岗位。

Because, ultimately, we want humanoid robots or robots in general to replace certain positions that we do not want to put people, human beings in.

嗯。

Mhmm.

有些岗位可能过于重复单调。

Some positions might be too repetitive.

有些岗位可能处于对人体有害的环境中。

Some positions might be in an environment that is toxic to human body.

你不想让人类持续冒险，或是穿戴全套防护装备在有毒环境中坚持工作。

You do not want humans to continue taking the risk or putting on all the gears to protect themselves from the toxic environment but still having to stick to it to do the job.

嗯。

Mhmm.

为了实现这些目标，人形机器人在工业领域绝对是非常必要的，这也是中国长期致力于研发这类机器人的原因。

So in order to achieve those, humanoid robots are definitely much necessary necessary in the industrial world, and that is also the reason that China has been working on developing these robots for quite a long time.

今年，我们正处在一个相对而言的突破期或加速期。

And this year, we are looking at relatively a breakthrough period or acceleration period.

我们谈论的是技术突破、资本人形涌入和场景借贷的快速循环。

We're talking about a rapid cycle of technology breakthroughs, capital humanoid influx, and scenario lending.

嗯。

Mhmm.

甚至有人将2025年称为量产元年，意味着从这一年开始，我们鼓励技术从技术原型转向工程实施和规模化应用。

And some people have even called 2025 as the mass production starting year, meaning that from this year on, we're encouraging the technology to transform from technological prototypes to engineering implementation and scale application.

是的。

Yeah.

你提到了那个术语‘场景落地’。

You mentioned that term scenario landing.

有时也被称为应用落地，意思是将技术带出实验室，然后成功投入使用，在特定情境下解决现实世界的问题。

That's of sometimes called application landing too, and it means taking a technology out of the lab and then successfully putting it to work, solving a real world problem in a specific situation.

所以他们正处于那个阶段。

So they're in that stage.

现在，确实有大量资金投入。

Now, yeah, there's a lot of money being invested.

企业之间正在相互竞争。

Companies are in a race against each other.

这就像一场军备竞赛，但是一场关于手臂和机械腿的竞赛。

It's like an arms race, but an arms and ray legs race.

是的。

Yeah.

现在它们已进入大规模生产阶段，价格也越来越便宜

And now they're in mass production, production, and the price is getting cheaper

非常重要。

Very important.

也是。

As well.

是的。

Yeah.

实际上，机器人价格下降得相当快。

Robot prices, they've come down pretty quickly, actually.

从实验室成本动辄数万甚至数十万元，到某些特定型号仅需约一万元或更低，我不知道价格下降是否预期会这么快，但我们已经看到了这一趋势。

They've moved from laboratory costs of tens or even hundreds of thousands of yuan to about 10,000 yuan or less for some particular particular models, which is I don't know if the price reduction was expected this quickly, but we're seeing it already.

是的。

Yes.

确实如此。

Exactly.

举个例子，我见过中国第一家机器人经销商。

And one example is that I I've seen one China's first robot dealership.

他们称之为7S店。

They call it seven s store.

嗯。

Mhmm.

因为在中国，人们把汽车经销商称为4S店，这四个S分别代表销售(Sales)、零配件(Spare parts)、售后服务(Service)和信息反馈(Survey)。

Because in China, when you call, like, a car dealership, people call it four s stores, and that s stands for, like, sales, spare parts, service, and survey.

因此这里有七个's'，因为它包含了展示机器人的解决方案（solution），以及培训维护这类机器人员的学校（school）。

And and so that is a seven s because that's also including solution showing the robots and also school, meaning training the people who can maintain and these kind of robots.

他们在武汉开设了首家仿人机器人专卖店，于11月11日正式开业。

So they have this first robot dealership store for humanoid robots and it opened on November 11 in Wuhan.

你去过吗？

Have you gone?

没有。

No.

是的。

Yeah.

但这是一家全新的店铺，里面陈列着许多机器人。

But it is a, like, a brand new store and it it covers and there are a lot of robots in there.

最便宜的机器人售价仅7万多元。

The cheapest robots are priced at just over 70,000 yuan.

折合约9800美元，而最昂贵的型号价格可能超过50万元。

That's $9,800, while the most expensive model can cost you more than 500,000.

是啊。

Yeah.

它们也可能相当昂贵。

They can get get quite expensive too.

当然。

Of course.

你可以将它们应用于不同场景中。

And you put them in different scenarios.

我们提到过这一点。

And we mentioned this.

最终，我们希望它们能帮助人类应对各种不同的情况。

Ultimately, we want to have them being used to helping human in different types of situations.

或许可以从工业和制造业应用开始。

And maybe it starts in industrial and manufacturing implications.

也许我们可以替代一些人类不愿从事的岗位工作，那么我们对人形机器人有哪些期待呢？

Perhaps we can replace some human workers from the position they do not wanna stay in, and what are some things that we expect humanoid robots to do?

是的。

Yeah.

实际上很多领域已经在使用人形机器人了。

A lot of the areas has actually has already been using humanoid robots.

例如在工业和制造场景中，行业专家普遍认为人形机器人将首先在这些环境中实现大规模部署，而明年预计将成为人形机器人应用的关键一年。

For example, industrial and manufacturing scenarios, the consensus among industry experts is that humanoid robots will first achieve large scale deployment in these environments, and the upcoming year is projected to be a critical year for the application of humanoid robots.

根据乐聚智能董事长冷晓琨的预测，明年工业领域企业的人形机器人采购交付量将突破1万台。

And according to Leng Xiao Kun Kun, chairman of Leju Intelligent, it is predicted that next year, companies in the industrial sector will see the procurement and delivery quantities exceeding 10,000 humanoid robots.

哦，那是个重要指标。

Oh, that's a benchmark.

没错。

Yeah.

它们将在生产线上工作。

They'll be working in production lines.

它们将以这种工业方式被部署。

They'll be deployed industrially in that fashion.

对于像你我这样的人来说，人们期待的事情之一就是未来家庭中人形机器人能提供的服务。

One of the things that people are maybe even for people like you and I, the thing that people are are waiting for is the the services that will be available from humanoid robots in the home.

如果你在网上看一些相关的视频，会发现这确实很有趣，但也非常非常复杂。

And if you watch, some videos online about this, it's pretty interesting, but it's also very, very, very complicated.

是啊。

Yeah.

比我原先意识到的还要复杂得多。

Much more complicated than I even realized.

当你观察诸如倒水、浇花、叠衣服或整理衣物这类事情时，会发现这对机器人来说是极其复杂的——因为它需要识别环境中的所有要素。这还只是讨论机器人移动的技术层面，更不用说安全问题了。

When you look at things like pouring water or watering the plants or folding clothes or folding laundry or whatever, that is an extremely complicated thing to do because of the all of the things that the robot needs to recognize within its environment, and that's only talking about the technical side of of moving the robot around, never mind the safety issues.

是的。

Yes.

说到机器人在生产线上的应用，确实现在已经有很多不同类型的机械臂或机器人设备在协助各种工业生产流程。

And when we talk about having robots working in production lines, yes, there are already a lot of different machines or robotic arms or robotic equipment helping different types of industrial production process.

例如在中国青岛，就有国家级智能制造示范工厂在进行螺栓紧固、零件安装等操作的机器人培训。

For example, we see that in Qingdao in China, there undergoes training for tasks like bolt tightening, part installation, handling at national level smart manufacturing demo plant.

这些正在成为现实。

These things are happening.

他们正在训练机器人掌握这些技能。

They're training robots to do that.

当机械臂具备这些能力后，就可以将其安装到人形机器人上，使其在原有功能基础上获得新能力。

And with a robotic arm being able to do that, you can put that arm on a robot, and that humanoid robot would be having that ability on top of whatever ability it already has.

嗯。

Mhmm.

此外，史蒂夫提到在美国沃尔玛超市中，家务场景运作良好，我们看到机器人处理订单、独立完成餐饮服务，甚至还提供多语言支持——这些功能在一两年前还很新奇，但现在已相当普遍。

And also, Steve mentioned housework scenarios in The United States operates the well, in the Walmart Walmart store, we see this having robot handling orders, taking and beverage, making them independently, and they even provide a multilanguage support, which was cool one or two years ago, but now you find it quite common.

这某种程度上是意料之中的。

It's kind of expected.

这某种程度上是意料之中的。

It's kind of expected.

是的。

Yes.

因此许多这类功能已在多种不同场景中投入使用。

So a lot of these functions have already been put in use in a lot of different scenarios.

现在我们正致力于将它们整合到单一机器人中，使其能在这些环境中工作并执行多项任务。

Now we're looking at integrate them into one robot and having the robot working in these environment and carrying out multiple tasks.

那么未来它们还能做些什么其他事情呢？

So what are some other things in the future that they may be able to do?

嗯。

Mhmm.

比如工厂作业。

Like, factory operations.

我们之前提到的是，可能每个机器人固定在特定位置，执行预先编程的特定操作。

What we're what we're mentioning before is that maybe one robot in one specific position, and they can actually do something that is, like, specifically coded.

但未来当机器人技术发展足够成熟时，它们就能更主动地自主工作，自行识别场景与环境，并执行你下达的指令。

But, in the future, when the robot can be developed so maturely, they can just do everything more actively by themselves and recognize the scenario and environment by themselves and to do and follow the order that you gave them.

包括装卸搬运、汽车制造中的材料分拣配比，以及在3C领域（计算机、通信、消费电子）的应用都将非常广泛，还有造船业的打磨抛光作业。

So loading and unloading and transferring and handling and also automotive manufacturing, like sorting, and proportioning materials, also in areas like three c, computer communication, consumer electronics area that this robot can be very, very useful, and also shipbuilding, like grinding and polishing.

此外，农业领域也可以使用哦，是的。

Also, agriculture area is can also be used Oh, yes.

在很多领域，比如精准田间作业。

In a lot of area, like precision field operations.

所以能力提升也是许多公司正在努力的方向之一。

So also, capability improvement is one thing that a lot of these companies are working on.

比如在两到三年内，人形机器人或许能在工业环境中执行更复杂的操作。

Like within two to three years humanoid robots may be able to perform more complex operations within industrial settings.

当然会的。

Of course they will.

是啊。

Yeah.

因为它们持续不断地收集更多数据，并利用这些数据来训练和编程这些机器人，只会变得越来越好。

Because they're continuing to gather and gather and gather more data and using that data to train these and code these robots, and it's only gonna get better and better and better and better.

瑞银证券有份报告预测了工业领域人形机器人的数量。

There was a report from UBS Securities that predicts the volume of humanoid robots in the industrial sector.

他们认为到2015年将超过150万台，工厂应用将会变得司空见惯。

They think it's going to exceed 1,500,000 units by the year 2015, and use in factories is just going to be commonplace, I think.

我们经常讨论这个话题。

We're talking about it a lot.

圆桌会议和其他媒体也一直在讨论。

On Roundtable and other media outlets are talking about it all the time as well.

最近我们讨论过餐厅里的机器人厨师。

Most recently, I think we talked about robot chefs in the restaurant.

对我们来说，这就是我的感受。

For us, that's this is how I feel about it.

对我们而言，这算是最近的大新闻了。

For us, that's big news these days.

我认为这将成为未来的常态。

That's gonna be the norm, I think, in the future.

我们目前正处于转型阶段，还不适应这种全新局面，有这么多公司投入大量资金、时间和资源。

We're just in the transition phase right now, and we're not used to it, and it's all new, and there are so many companies investing so much money and time into this, so many resources.

我们正在朝着那个常态迈进。

We're headed towards that norm.

想象一个充满人形机器人的美丽洁净工厂，它们搬运箱子、制造新能源汽车之类的场景，听起来真令人兴奋。

It sounds exciting to imagine a beautiful clean factory with full of humanoid robots walking around carrying cases, making brand new, like, new energy cars and stuff.

但它们什么时候能进入我的家庭呢？

But when can I expect them to join my family?

哦，还需要相当长的时间。

Oh, it's gonna be while.

对我来说。

For me.

还需要很长时间，因为有太多问题需要解决。

It's gonna be a while because there's so many things to work out.

让我们回到家务活的例子。

Let's go back to the household chores example.

比如叠衣服，机器人需要识别并看清一件皱巴巴的软质T恤，理解它的三维形状。

So folding laundry, the robot has to recognize, see, a soft crumpled t shirt and understand its three-dimensional shape.

是啊。

Yeah.

然后它需要规划用哪个角落来抓取物品。

Then it has to plan how to pick it up with what corner to grab.

对吧？

Right?

就像人类那样。

The way that humans do.

我们本能地知道从哪里拿起T恤或毛巾，但机器人不知道。

They we just instinctively know where to pick up the t shirt or a towel, but the robot doesn't know that.

它还需要处理毛巾的柔韧性，据说这是机器人技术中最难的问题之一。

It also has to manipulate the flexible flexibility aspect of the of the towel, and that's one of the hardest problems in in robotics, they say.

然后它还得知道叠好的衣服是什么样子的。

And then it has to know what a folded shirt even looks like.

这样它就不会尝试乱来，对吧？

So it doesn't try Right?

所以它能区分叠好和没叠好的衣物，这就涉及到手部的灵活性。

So it doesn't so it knows to differentiate between a folded piece of laundry and a non folded piece of laundry, then you've got the dexterity in the hands.

我需要用多大力气抓起这个东西，而不是其他物品？

How how how strong do I need to grab this thing to pick it up versus something else?

这就引出了安全问题。

And that brings us to the safety issue.

想象家里有婴儿或小狗的情况。

Imagine you have a baby or a puppy in the home.

AI已经会产生幻觉了。

AI already hallucinates.

这将会发生。

It's gonna happen.

人形机器人也会出现这种情况。

It's gonna happen with with humanoid robots too.

那么你现在会放心让一个人形机器人和你的婴儿共处一室吗？

So would you feel comfortable right now having a humanoid robot in the house with your infant child?

大概不会。

Probably not.

很可能不会。

Probably not.

我们讨论过的那些问题中，他们需要知道如何编写机器人代码，使其能够安全地日复一日在家中与人类共同生活。

Of those issues that we talked about, they need to they need to know how to code the robot that so that it can perform safely all day every day in the home alongside other human beings.

但我相对更乐观些，因为记得大约三五年前我们讨论自动驾驶汽车时，谈到智能驾驶、领航驾驶时，我们还在说‘好吧’。

But I am relatively more optimistic because when remember around five, three years ago when we talk about automobile that can drive themselves, the smart driving, pilot driving, we were talking about, oh, okay.

那么如果我们使用这项技术，是否意味着路上每辆车都应该使用这项技术，以便它们能相互通信，在路上做出正确判断和决策？

So if we're using this technology, does it mean that every car on the road should be using the technology so they can communicate with each other, so they can make proper judgment and decisions on the road.

然后很不幸，真的发生了一起事故。

So one well, real, unfortunately, accident happen.

我们知道如何确定优先级，或如何确保责任在车祸中归咎于哪一方。

We know how to priority or how to make sure the responsibility falls onto which party in the collision in the car accident.

还有，如果发生某些情况，我们是否应该允许人类接管车辆控制权？

And one, something happened, should we allow human to take over the control of the car?

在真正危险的情况下，我们是否应该允许车内的机器或电脑接管人类的控制权？

Or should in really risky situations, should we allow the machine in the car, the computer in the car to take over from human?

我们讨论过这个问题。

We had the discussion.

我们已经多次讨论过这个话题。

We had the conversation for quite many times.

但现在看看。

But look at now.

现在我们看到的是自动驾驶汽车或在道路上开启辅助驾驶模式的车辆。

Now we're looking at cars driving themselves or having this pilot mode on the road.

它们闪烁着蓝光，安全可靠，与人类驾驶员和谐共处。

They're they're shining with blue lights, and they are safe and they are coexisting with human drivers.

它们已经找到了处理车内控制权交接的方法，这是五年前我们无法想象的。

And they have figured out how to handle this handover of controlling rights in the car in a way that we didn't imagine five years ago.

所以我觉得，随着新技术的出现，我们现在讨论的某些问题可能会自然消失，而非被解决。

So I feel like some of the problems we're talking about now might disappear instead of being solved when new tech technology comes up.

哦，百分之一百万同意。

Oh, 1000000%.

你刚才问我什么时候可以？

You just asked when can I Yes?

我说不是明天。

And I said not tomorrow.

不是不是明天。

Not not tomorrow.

大概五年或七年吧。

Probably five years or seven years.

我是说，如果你愿意的话，明天就可以订购一个人形机器人到家里。

I mean, you can order a humanoid robot and have one in your house tomorrow if you want to.

只是它还不能帮你洗衣服、洗碗或做其他家务。

It's just not gonna be able to do all your laundry and dishes and other things.

我认为技术挑战可能会以意想不到的方式解决。

And I think the technological challenges might be solved by unexpected ways.

这就是我的观点。

That was my point.

而且，我也很乐意五年后邀请一个到家里，因为它们具备多种不同技能和专业特长，要求一个人类助手掌握全部能力是不现实的。

And also, I would love to welcome one to my home, maybe five years later because they also have a lot of different skills, different specialties that it is unfair to expect a human assistant in your home to grasp or to have all the ability.

比如我们看到中国深圳的顶尖大学配备了搭载深度求索模型的人形机器人，这些机器人能识别穴位为养老院的老人针灸，甚至能提供情感支持。

For example, we see that in Shenzhen number one university in China, they have robot robots, humanoid robots equipped with deep seek model, and the robots can identify acupoints and perform acupuncture for elderly in nursing homes, and they can even provide emotional support.

它们能和你对话，因为内置了大语言模型。

They can talk to you because it has large language model built in them.

所以有朝一日当我们迎来人形机器人而非仅仅是洗衣机、扫地机时，它们能提供更多价值。

So if one day when we welcome a humanoid robot instead of just a washing machine or a sweeping machine into our homes, it is they have a lot to offer.

是啊。

Yeah.

但现在，我是说你不应该...

But now, I mean, you shouldn't.

昨天我们还在讨论这个。

They're you and I were talking yesterday about this.

它们有点...它们有点像...我不知道该怎么形容。

They're kind of they're kind of just like a I don't know.

我这么说并非有意轻视或居高临下，但它们现在几乎就像是一种派对把戏。

I don't mean to be dismissive or condescending when I say this, but they're just kind of like a party trick now almost.

是啊。

Yeah.

确实如此。

Exactly.

这就是为什么我觉得你刚才说的很有道理——回顾五到十年前，汽车技术远没有发展到这种程度。

That's why I think when you were saying that when we're looking back like five or ten years ago, cars have not been developed like this.

所以我认为，这将是许多行业逐步经历的发展趋势和路径。

So that's, I think, is the trend or path a lot of these industries will go through and step by step.

因此当前或未来一两年内，这类人形机器人主要还是聚焦于陪伴功能，或是作为某种能陪伴你的存在。

So currently or maybe in the future one to two years, the these kind of humanoid robot are mainly still focusing on being a companion or acting as a something that you can just to accompany you.

嗯。

Mhmm.

有专家预测，或许三到五年后，这些人形机器人就能进入商业服务场景，比如担任酒店服务人员与人互动，预计将实现规模化应用。

And then, some experts are saying then, maybe in three to five years, these human or robot can enter commercial service scenarios, like acting as hotel service personnel who interact with people and is projected to to do these and to be largely and scalably employed.

而未来八到十年后，它们或许最终能进入普通家庭。

And then maybe in future ten to eight to ten years, you can finally expect them to be in your home.

我明白你说的意思。

I know what you're talking about.

今年早些时候，中国国际电视台（CMG）举办过几场与机器人相关的比赛和竞技活动。

Earlier this year, CMG hosted a well, several games and competition related to robots.

机器狗赛跑、机器狗拳击比赛，还有人形机器人马拉松。

Robotic dog racing, robotic dog boxing competition, and also humanoid robots marathon.

你看到了那种笨拙的样子。

And you see the clumsiness.

是啊。

Yeah.

人形机器人世界大赛，大概在八月份。

The humanoid robot world games in, like, August.

对。

Yeah.

有足球比赛。

There was the soccer match.

有拳击比赛。

There was the boxing match.

有趣的是当机器人——我们说的是人形机器人——你会看到它们在意外情况下挣扎的样子。

And the funny thing is when it's robots, we're humanoid robots, you see they struggle in unexpected situations.

是的，对于狗或者人类来说，拳击时最难的是找准击打点和最佳防守姿势。

For, yes, for dogs or for, like well, or for human being when you're boxing, the hard part is find the spot to punch and to find the best posture to defense.

但对于人形机器人来说，当它们拳击或机器狗拳击时，最难的是从地上爬起来。

But for the humanoid robots, when they're boxing or when the robotic dogs are boxing, the hard part is getting up from the floor.

你得重新找回平衡之类的东西。

You have to find out your balance again and something in that regard.

是啊。

Yeah.

不过对某些人来说，One X的上市还需要几年时间，这是来自美国的消息。

Just a couple of years away for some for some, though, One X's availability, that's from The United States.

对吧？

Right?

现在可以以2万美元的价格预订，或者你也可以选择租赁。

Their preorders are now you can preorder for $20,000, or you can lease us you can lease it too.

大约每月500美元。

About $500 a month.

他们预计在2026年的某个时间点交付。

They're expecting delivery by 2026 at some point.

我不确定那是年初还是年末。

I don't know if that's early or later in the year.

特斯拉的产品叫做Optimus。

Tesla, their theirs is called Optimus.

对吧？

Right?

他们在2022年推出了原型机，埃隆·马斯克在今年夏天表示，Optimus第三代可能会在2026年初上市。

They put their prototype out in 2022, and Elon Musk said during this summer that Optimus version three could potentially become available in early twenty twenty six.

上面有非常好的例子。

Really good examples on top.

嗯，除了小鹏的人形机器人有点过于拟人化。

Well, besides the Xiaopeng humanoid robot who's just a bit too humanoid.

话虽如此，我们已经讨论了人形机器人技术面临的潜在问题和当前挑战。

And that being said, we've discussed the potential problems and current challenges faced by the technology of humanoid robots.

整个行业的情况如何？

How about the entire industry?

如果我们希望它们真正成为生活的一部分，还需要解决哪些问题？

If we want them to actually be part of our life, what else are we looking to solve?

我们刚才其实已经提到了一些。

We actually just mentioned some of these.

所有这些AI和人形机器人，它们都需要数据。

All of these AI and humanoid robot, they need data.

所以它们需要信息。

So need they need information.

它们需要数据库来构建整个系统，并建立对人类——可以说是AI大脑的认知。

They need database to actually build up the whole system and recognition of their, let's say, human, like, AI brain.

人类，没错。

Human yeah.

还有人类行为。

And human behavior.

是的。

Yes.

嗯。

Mhmm.

那么，我们究竟该如何收集这类数据和信息呢？

So when but how can we actually collect these kind of data and information?

这正是该行业面临的最大挑战之一，专家们表示我们仍需要大量时间来训练这些机器人。

And that is one of the biggest challenges this industry is facing when experts are saying that we still need a lot of time to actually train these robots.

这不仅仅是编程的问题，还涉及到大量信息的录入。

And it's not only about coding, it's also about the, like, the insert of a a lot of these information.

听你这么说，让我想到当家里真的迎来机器人时，它也得收集我家人的数据。

When you say that, it makes me think that when I actually welcome a robot in my home, it will have to collect data from my family too.

确保这些数据、信息的安全也相当重要。

And making sure that data, that information is secured is also quite important.

是啊。

Yeah.

大规模加密。

Encryption on scale.

这可是大事。

That's a big deal.

对吧？

Right?

但还有另一个例子。

But there's another example.

我们好像还没提到这家公司——Figure AI。

I don't think we mentioned this company yet, Figure AI.

他们的机器人叫Figure 3，我刚看了相关视频。

Their robot's called Figure three, and I was watching a video on it.

它叠衣服叠得相当不错。

It folds laundry pretty well.

它装碗碟或洗衣服都做得挺好，但还不够完美。

It loads the dishes pretty well or the laundry pretty well, but not really perfect.

所以他们需要从‘勉强能做到’提升到‘确实能做到’

So they need to get from it can kind of do it to it can do it

比人类更优秀。

Better than human.

每次都没问题。

No problem every single time.

那位CEO的名字我一时想不起来了。

And the CEO, his name escapes me.

抱歉。

Sorry.

当时没记下来。

Didn't write it down.

总之，他谈到这点时说数据能解决所有问题。

But anyway, he was talking about that, and he said that data solves all problems.

当你扩大数据量和用于训练神经网络的计算能力时，整体性能就会有所提升。

And when you scale up the amount of data and the computing power being used to train a neural network, then it kind of shows improvements across the board.

所以那家公司现在投入了大量资金。

So what they're doing now, that particular company, they're spending a lot of money.

他们正在收集人们执行家务的视频，用来训练机器人应对特定场景的行为。

They're collecting videos of people performing household tasks and then using that to train the robot so that they know how to behave in certain situations.

机器人厨师也采用相同策略。

Same strategy when it comes to robotic chefs.

这些厨师正在向世界顶级厨师学习如何烹饪最佳菜肴。

The chefs are also learning from the best chefs in the world and know how to cook the best dish.

我也能拥有一个那样的。

I can have one of those.

我想无论这些机器最终是进入工厂、客厅还是执行救援任务，有一点是肯定的——它们的故事已不再是科幻小说。

We all I think whether the machines end up in factories, living rooms, or rescue missions, one thing is for sure, their story is no longer science fiction.

它正逐渐成为我们生活的一部分。

It's becoming part of ours.