AI抛售后，市场静待情绪面消息

欢迎收听嘉信理财市场动态播客，我们通过回顾近期新闻和展望未来，为您每个交易日做好准备。我是科莱特·奥克莱尔，以下是嘉信对11月7日周五市场的早盘展望。华尔街一个多月来最糟糕的一周即将结束，更多可能影响美联储决策的数据今日出炉。密歇根大学11月消费者信心指数初值将于东部时间10点公布，此前裁员潮和对AI估值的担忧带来压力。追踪百家大型信息技术企业的纳斯达克100指数，周四遭遇近一个月来第三次大幅抛售。

Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead. I'm Colette O'Clare, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Friday, November 7. The worst week on Wall Street in more than a month wraps up today with more data that could guide the Federal Reserve. The University of Michigan's preliminary November consumer sentiment arrives at 10AM Eastern Time after a spike in layoffs and concerns about AI valuations brought pressure. The Nasdaq one hundred, which tracks the largest infotech firms, suffered its third heavy sell off in the last month on Thursday.

嘉信金融研究中心衍生品分析总监内森·彼得森表示，此前助推众多科技股（包括部分未盈利企业）上涨的投机与动能情绪似乎正在减弱。据briefing.com数据，整体情绪预期共识值为54，较10月的53.6微升，但仍接近历史低位。该报告还追踪通胀预期，上月终值显示长期价格展望从3.7%升至3.9%。美联储密切关注长期数据以抑制通胀恐慌。尽管政府停摆导致本次录音时多数官方数据已滞后六周，但部分私营报告与企业财报共同描绘出美国经济健康状况的复杂图景。

The speculative and momentum sentiment that helped lift many tech shares, including some with no profits, appears to be fading a bit, said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives analysis at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. Consensus is 54 for headline sentiment, up slightly from 53.6 in October, but still near historic lows, according to briefing.com. The report also tracks inflation expectations, and the long run price outlook climbed in the final reading last month to 3.9 from 3.7%. The Federal Reserve watches the longer term number with an eye on keeping inflation fear in check. Though the government is closed as of this recording and most official data are now six weeks out of date, a few private reports, along with company earnings, paint a mixed picture of US economic health.

继10月ADP就业数据周三超预期后，职业介绍公司Challenger Gray and Christmas周四发布的月度裁员报告为就业市场蒙上阴影。Challeger报告显示，由于成本削减和AI应用，10月裁员数达15.3万人。招聘速度放缓至十四年来最低水平。嘉信金融研究中心宏观研究与策略主管凯文·戈登表示，10月Challenger公布的裁员公告激增9.9万例，年初至今总数已突破100万，这是自2020年新冠疫情重创劳动力市场以来最严峻的裁员年份。

After October's ADP employment data topped expectations Wednesday, a monthly layoffs report from outplacement firm Challenger Gray and Christmas painted a grim picture of the jobs market Thursday. Challenger reported 153,000 layoffs in October due to cost cutting and AI. Hiring slowed to a fourteen year low. This is now the worst year for layoffs since 2020 when the labor market was decimated by COVID nineteen. Challenger job cut announcements jumped by 99,000 in October, and the year to date total now exceeds 1,000,000, said Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

科技和仓储行业领涨裁员潮。周四另一份私营报告中，劳动力分析公司Revelio Labs显示10月薪资减少9000人。由于政府暂时停止数据收集，这些私营报告获得更多关注，但可能都无法完全涵盖华盛顿追踪的所有指标。周三ADP就业报告显示私营企业10月就业增长超预期。情绪指数虽是小规模报告，其反映本周新闻的程度尚不明确。

Tech and warehousing sectors led the increase. In another private report Thursday, workforce analytics firm Revelio Labs reported a decline of 9,000 in October payrolls. With the government temporarily out of the data collection business, these private reports are getting more attention, but none likely captures all the metrics tracked by Washington. The ADP employment report on Wednesday showed better than expected October jobs growth at private employers. Sentiment is a small report, and it's unclear how much it will reflect this week's news.

市场近期疲软可能印证了政府停摆对经济的压力——工人停薪、数据缺失导致不确定性加剧。停摆同样损害企业，它们面临政府许可和其他监管需求的更久等待。若停摆降低首次公开募股需求，最终可能冲击华尔街投行；而联邦航空管理局命令无薪工作的空管人员减少10%航班，航空公司被迫削减运力。周四裁员报告公布后，收益率回吐周三涨幅。十年期国债收益率曾因美国经济韧性迹象升至4.15%的月内高点，但大规模裁员暴露经济软肋，收益率大幅下跌6个基点至4.09%。

The market's recent struggles might be evidence of the shutdown's pressure on the economy with workers going unpaid, along with uncertainty due to lack of data. The shutdown also hurts companies, which face longer waits for government permits or other regulatory needs. Ultimately, it could hurt the Wall Street banks if it slows demand for initial public offerings, and airlines have to cut back flights by 10% due to an order by the Federal Aviation Administration with air traffic controllers going unpaid. Yields gave back Wednesday's gains Thursday after the layoff report. The ten year treasury note yield had rallied to a one month high above 4.15% on signs of US economic resilience, but the heavy layoff suggested soft spots and the yield fell a hefty six basis points to 4.09%.

裁员消息也导致美元走弱，不过仍接近近期峰值。根据CME FedWatch工具，周四尾盘市场对美联储12月降息的预期从本周初的62%升至近69%。但芝加哥联储主席奥斯汀·古尔斯比周四表示，在数据真空期降息令他不安。他呼应美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔近期关于雾中行车需减速的比喻。美联储已连续两次会议各降息25个基点。

The dollar also weakened on the job cut news, though it's not far from recent peaks. Expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut rose to nearly 69% by late Thursday, according to the CME Fed Watch tool, from 62% earlier this week. However, Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsby said Thursday he's uneasy about cutting rates given the data darkness. He echoed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's recent observation about needing to slow down when driving in the fog. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points two meetings in a row.

下次议息决议将于12月10日公布。知名鸽派官员、理事史蒂文·迈伦将于今日东部时间15点发表讲话。下周多场国债拍卖或让投资者窥见当前不确定时期对美国债务的需求。若拍卖结果不佳可能推高收益率，引发对企业、消费者和政府借贷成本的担忧。请关注今日稍后的最新财报更新。

Its next decision comes on December 10. Well known Fed dove, governor Steven Myron, speaks at 3PM Eastern Time today. Several treasury auctions next week could give investors a sense of demand for US debt at this uncertain moment. Poor auction results might send yields higher, raising concern about borrowing costs for companies, consumers, and the government. Stay tuned later today for the latest earnings update.

上周，FactSet将标普500指数第三季度盈利增长预测锁定在近11%，但同时指出该指数的远期市盈率已达23倍，创三年新高。下周财报发布较少，但包括应用材料、思科、CoreWeave和迪士尼等行业巨头。应用材料作为半导体设备与服务供应商，其财报能反映这一重要领域的需求状况。受益于AI电力支出的星座能源公司今早发布财报。本周末至下周初还需关注政府停摆事件的解决进展。

Last week, FactSet pegged third quarter S and P 500 earnings growth at nearly 11%, but also noted that the S and P 500 index traded at a three year high in terms of forward price to earnings, or PE, at 23 to one. Earnings next week are sparse, but the company's reporting include heavy hitters like Applied Materials, Cisco, CoreWeave, and Walt Disney. Applied Materials is a semiconductor equipment and services provider, giving insight into demand across that important sector. Constellation Energy, a big beneficiary of AI spending on power, reports this morning. The other thing to watch today over the weekend and early next week is for any progress on resolving the shutdown.

嘉信理财法律与政府事务董事总经理迈克尔·汤森德表示，参议员们面临解决历史最长政府停摆的压力无疑正在加大。虽然行政部门已找到支付军方人员薪资的变通方案，但这种情况能持续多久尚不明确。当前最大压力点或是机场日益严重的延误——空管人员和运输安全管理局员工以集体请病假方式抗议无薪工作。感恩节出行高峰临近（仅剩不到三周），公众不满正迫使双方寻求解决方案。

There is no question that pressure is increasing on senators to find a resolution to the shutdown, which is now the longest in history, said Michael Townsend, managing director for legal and government affairs at Schwab. While the administration has found workarounds to pay military personnel, it's not clear how much longer that can continue. Perhaps the biggest pressure point of all is increasing delays at airports where air traffic controllers and TSA agents have been staging sickouts as a protest against being forced to work without pay. That's led to flight delays and huge security lines. With the Thanksgiving holiday travel period now less than three weeks away, public frustration is putting pressure on both sides to find a resolution, Townsend added.

汤森德指出，参议院两党本周虽就妥协方案加速讨论，但尚未涉及高层领导人。快速解决远非易事，但两党都日益意识到停摆已难以为继。主要股指在周三上涨后周四回落，远低于周内高点。推动诸多科技股（包括部分亏损企业）上涨的投机动能似有减弱迹象，这可能使相关投资者受损，但也可能促使资金最终流向优质AI股和科技巨头。

Bipartisan discussions in the senate about finding compromise picked up steam this week but haven't involved senior party leaders or the president. A quick resolution is far from a slam dunk, but there's a growing sense on both sides of the aisle that the shutdown has become unsustainable, Townsend said. Major indexes rolled back Thursday after Wednesday's gains and are well off their weekly highs. The speculative and momentum sentiment that helped push many tech shares, including some with no profits, appear to be fading a bit. This could cause some pain for investors in those names, but might also ultimately mean more money flowing into quality AI stocks and the mega cap tech names instead.

市场周四午后虽从早盘低点回升，但逢低买盘未显著出现，尾盘股指回落收于高位下方。无论是科技板块本周整体疲软、比特币跌破10万美元关口，还是罗素2000指数三个月来首次跌破50日均线，都显示投机领域正在去杠杆化。这可能对个股造成负面影响，也可能引发资金向优质科技股或估值更具吸引力板块轮动。技术面上，标普500自10月17日以来首次收于20日均线（现为6748点）下方，对多头而言是令人失望的一天——尽管该均线过去六个月始终是重要支撑位。

The market clawed back early Thursday afternoon from early lows, but dip buying didn't emerge in any significant way, and indexes slid the final hour to close well off their highs. Whether it's this week's lopsided underperformance in tech overall, Bitcoin's recent downside breach of the $100,000 level, or the Russell two thousand's moved below its fifty day simple moving average for the first time in three months, there is evidence of deleveraging in the speculative and momentum space, Schwab's Peterson said. This could have some negative repercussions for stocks, or it could result in rotation as money flows into higher quality tech stocks or those sectors with more attractive valuations. From a technical perspective, Thursday was a disappointing day for bulls as the S and P 500 index closed below its twenty day moving average, now at 6,748 for the first time since October 17. The twenty day line has been a significant source of support for the index over the last six months, though mid October featured a six day stretch of closes below that level.

板块方面，防御性板块如医疗保健、能源和必需消费品昨日资金流入，风险情绪持续低迷。与'七巨头'及半导体关联最紧密的通信服务、信息技术和非必需消费品板块表现垫底。标普500十一大板块中仅两个收涨。个股方面，网约车公司Lyft因季度总预订量增长16%且盈利强劲上涨超5%；CarMax因CEO将于12月1日意外离职暴跌24%。

Sector wise, money flowed into defensive areas like health care, energy, and consumer staples yesterday as risk sentiment remained weak. The three sectors most exposed to the magnificent seven and semiconductors, communication services, infotech, and consumer discretionary, rounded out the very bottom of sector performance list. Only two of 11 S and P 500 secondtors ended higher. Checking individual stock performance Thursday, shares of rideshare company Lyft rose more than 5% on strong earnings in a quarter that saw gross bookings climb 16%. CarMax tumbled more than 24% after the company announced the surprise departure of its CEO effective December 1.

投资者同样看淡公司财务前景：语言学习平台多邻国因业绩指引疲软周四跌25%；避险情绪拖累比特币期货跌3%，加密相关个股下挫；DoorDash因投资者关注其支出计划跌17%；高通尽管业绩远超预期且指引高于FactSet共识，昨日仍跌3.6%。

Investors also frowned on the company's financial outlook. Duolingo dropped 25% Thursday as the language learning platform company shared soft guidance. Crypto related shares tumbled as risk off sentiment pushed Bitcoin futures down 3% Thursday. DoorDash fell 17 Thursday as investors eyed the company's spending plans. Qualcomm dropped 3.6% yesterday despite easily beating analysts' earnings and revenue expectations and provided guidance that exceeded the FactSet consensus.

高通主要产品线实现两位数增长。特斯拉跌3.5%，投资者等待股东大会关于马斯克千亿美元薪酬方案的消息；AMD因芯片股抛售加剧跌7%，反映市场对估值担忧。道琼斯工业平均指数周四跌398.7点（0.84%）至46912.3点，标普500指数跌75.97点（1.12%）至6720.32点。

Qualcomm reported double digit growth in major product areas. Tesla fell 3.5% as investors awaited news from the company's shareholder meeting on a proposed $1,000,000,000,000 pay package for CEO Elon Musk. Advanced micro devices fell 7% as selling accelerated in chip stocks, apparently as investors grew nervous about valuations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 398.7 points Thursday or 0.84% to 46,912.3. The S and P 500 index dropped 75.97 points or 1.12% to 6,720.32.

纳斯达克综合指数下跌445.8点，跌幅1.9%，收于23,053.99点。这里是嘉信理财市场动态播客。如需获取最新资讯，请访问schwab.com/marketupdate或在您喜爱的播客应用中免费订阅。若您喜欢本期内容，请考虑为我们留下评分或评论，这将帮助更多新听众发现我们的节目。

And the Nasdaq Composite gave back 445.8 points or 1.9% to 23,053.99. This has been the Schwab Market Update Podcast. To stay informed, visit schwab.com/marketupdate or follow for free in your favorite podcasting app. And if you like what you've heard, please consider leaving us a rating or review. It really helps new listeners find the show.

下周一请继续收听我们的市场动态更新。重要声明详见节目备注及schwab.com/marketupdatepodcast。

Join us for another update Monday. For important disclosures, see the show notes and schwab.com/marketupdatepodcast.