裁员消息引关注 政府停摆推迟失业数据发布

欢迎收听嘉信理财市场动态播客，我们将带您回顾近期新闻并展望未来，为每个交易日做好准备。我是基思·兰斯福德，以下是嘉信对

Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead. I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at

10月2日周四市场的早间展望。对于市场老手而言，这个周四将不同寻常，因为政府停摆导致首次申请失业救济金数据暂停发布。华尔街迄今对华盛顿的僵局处之泰然，大盘指数昨日创下历史新高，部分原因是市场预期停摆可能较为短暂。问题是如果局势未能迅速解决，且像明日将公布的九月就业数据这样的关键报告无法用于交易参考，投资者情绪会如何变化。停摆始于周三，持续时间尚不足以对行业造成影响。

the markets for Thursday, October 2. Thursday won't feel normal to market veterans with the government's shutdown canceling initial weekly jobless claims data. Wall Street has taken the DC stalemate in stride so far, with the broader market hitting record highs yesterday in part on hopes that a shutdown might be relatively short. The question is how investors might feel if the situation isn't resolved quickly and key reports like tomorrow's September jobs data aren't available to trade on. The shutdown began Wednesday and hasn't been long enough to cause a sector impact.

若僵局持续，建议关注依赖联邦合同的行业动态，如国防、建筑和技术服务，这些领域可能面临付款延迟。若无法快速达成协议，旅游业、航空业及拥有大量联邦雇员的地区经济也可能遭受更严重冲击。若政府明日继续关闭，美国劳工统计局（BLS）将不会发布周五的九月非农就业报告。这份报告对即将召开十月利率会议的美联储至关重要。但除非停摆持续数日以上，数据很可能很快恢复发布，对华尔街和美联储而言这可能只是道路上的小颠簸。

If it persists, consider watching activity in industries tied to federal contracts such as defense, construction, and technology services as they may face delayed payments. Industries such as tourism, airlines, and regional economies with large federal workforces would likely feel a sharper hit too if there's no quick agreement. The Bureau of Labor Statistics or BLS won't release Friday's September nonfarm payrolls report if the government stays closed tomorrow. That report is critical for the Federal Reserve as it approaches its October rate meeting. But unless the shutdown lasts more than a few days, the data will likely be available soon, and this may look like a bump in the road for Wall Street and the Fed.

美联储在停摆期间仍正常运作，因此利率制定会议预计如期举行。嘉信立法与监管事务董事总经理迈克尔·汤森德表示，十月的会议本就面临是否继续降息的艰难抉择。关键数据缺失将使美联储的决策过程更加困难。停摆还可能带来额外就业威胁，因特朗普总统威胁要解雇而非暂时休假数千名联邦雇员。若成真，可能冲击支撑近期经济活力的消费者支出。

The Fed is still functioning during the shutdown, so its rate setting meeting is expected to take place as scheduled. October's meeting was already shaping up as a difficult decision on whether to continue rate cutting, said Michael Townsend, managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs at Schwab. A lack of critical data would make the Fed's decision making process even tougher. The shutdown could impose an additional job threat as president Trump has threatened to fire rather than furlough thousands of federal employees during the closure. If this happens, it could hit consumer spending that's underpinned recent economic strength.

这也意味着今年不断增长的失业人数可能再添联邦雇员。据CNBC报道，副总统万斯表示尚未就裁员做出最终决定。周三的数据使就业担忧持续成为焦点，主要指数最初受挫后反弹。ADP私营部门就业人数九月减少3.2万，远低于预期增加4万，可能引发对就业形势的新忧虑。ADP还将八月数据从增加5.4万大幅下修至减少3千。

It could also mean more federal job losses added to this year's growing tally. Vice president Vans said no final decisions on layoffs have been made, CNBC reported. Wednesday's data kept labor worries front and center, initially hurting major indexes before they rebounded. ADP private sector employment fell by 32,000 in September, well below consensus of 40,000 jobs added and likely to spur fresh concern about the labor picture. ADP also sliced its August report to down 3,000 from being up 54,000.

嘉信首席固定收益策略师凯西·琼斯表示，在周五政府数据缺席的情况下，这份报告将更具重要性，她称ADP数据远逊预期。令人担忧的是，若就业持续疲软而政府停摆，美联储将难以在缺乏数据支撑的情况下降息，从而加剧问题。继政府和ADP连串令人失望的就业报告后，投资者可能困惑于疲弱数据究竟反映雇主需求不足还是可用劳动力短缺。政府对移民的打击可能导致劳动力供应减少。强劲的消费者支出、经济增长及顽固的通胀数据，与经济放缓拖累就业需求的观点形成矛盾。

With no Friday government data, this will take on added significance, said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab, who called the ADP data much weaker than expected. One concern is that if employment continues to weaken and the government is shut, the Fed won't be able to cut rates without data, exacerbating the problem. After several disappointing jobs reports from both the government and the ADP, investors might be wondering how much the weak data reflects lack of employer demand versus lack of people to hire. The administration's crackdown on immigration could mean fewer available workers. Strong consumer spending and economic growth along with stubborn inflation work against the argument of a slower economy dragging down job demand.

亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型周三将经季节调整的第三季度年化GDP增长率预估从3.9%下调至3.8%，不过历史上短期停摆对经济增长影响有限。汤森德表示，最大的未知数是停摆将持续多久，华盛顿有种预感这次可能旷日持久。若持续一周或十天，或许影响不大。但若长达一月或更久，这将成为华盛顿当前的忧虑焦点。

The Atlanta Fed's GDP now tool got updated Wednesday to 3.8% down from its previous estimate of 3.9% for a seasonally adjusted annual third quarter gross domestic product growth, though short shutdowns haven't had much impact on economic growth historically. The big unknown is how long the shutdown will last, Townsend said. There is a sense in Washington that this could be a long one. If this is a week or ten days, there probably won't be much impact. But if it's a month or longer, then that's the worry right now in Washington.

这可能开始对经济产生更广泛的影响。周三公布的9月ISM制造业PMI数据表现疲软，为49.1%，低于预期。根据briefing.com的数据，分析师此前预期为49.2%，高于8月的48.7%。CME美联储观察工具显示本月降息概率接近100%。截至周三晚，年底前两次降息的概率升至87%，远高于上周晚些时候70%的水平。

It could start to have a broader impact on the economy. Wednesday's September ISM manufacturing PMI was sluggish and below expectations at 49.1%. Analysts had expected a headline reading of 49.2% according to briefing.com, up from 48.7% in August. The CME Fed watch tool prices in nearly a 100% chance of a rate cut this month. Chances of two cuts before year end rose to 87% by late Wednesday, well above the 70% level seen late last week.

周三国债收益率似乎受到降息预期升温的影响全线下跌，其中对美联储政策更敏感的短期收益率跌幅最大。基准十年期收益率下跌4个基点至4.11%，较上周五下降7个基点（上周曾上涨8个基点）。政府停摆及相关失业担忧，加上疲软的ISM和ADP数据可能造成了压力。下周将有多笔关键国债拍卖，若不受停摆影响，或为低迷市场提供方向指引。投资者等待今日盘前公布的9月挑战者裁员数据——因联邦数据无法获取。

Treasury yields appeared to take a hint from rising rate cut hopes Wednesday falling across the curve, but with the sharpest declines in short term yields more sensitive to Fed policy. The benchmark ten year yield fell four basis points to 4.11, down seven basis points from Friday after rising eight basis points last week. Worries about the shutdown and related job losses along with the weak ISM and ADP data likely weighed. Next week features several key treasury auctions that may provide direction after a low, assuming they aren't affected by the shutdown. Investors await today's September challenger jobs cut data before the open with federal data unavailable.

挑战者和ADP等报告将具有额外重要性。市场共识预期挑战者裁员数为15万，较前月的8.6万大幅上升。去年9月裁员数仅为7.2万。8月裁员主要集中在制药、金融和科技行业。企业新闻方面，特斯拉预计将公布第三季度汽车交付数据。

Reports like the challenger and ADP will take on added importance. Consensus puts challenger job cuts at 150,000 up sharply from 86,000 the prior month. September a year ago saw just 72,000 cuts. Pharmaceutical, financial, and tech led cuts in August. Checking corporate news, Tesla is expected to release its third quarter vehicle deliveries data.

路透社指出，这是美国电动车税收抵免政策到期的最后一个季度，可能助推交付量。华尔街预期交付量约为44.15万辆，同比下滑约6%。摆脱政府停摆威胁两天后，华尔街周三在停摆开始时出现波动但迅速恢复。国债收益率和美元走弱，波动率亦下降。疲软的ADP数据最初打压股市，但收益率下降和降息预期升温随后提振了市场。

It's the last quarter featuring expiring US EV tax credits, which could help boost numbers, Reuters noted. Wall Street expects deliveries of approximately 441,500 vehicles, about 6% lower than the same quarter a year ago. After shaking off threats of a government shutdown the last two days, Wall Street flinched Wednesday when the shutdown began but quickly regained its strength. Treasury yields and the dollar slipped, but so did volatility. The soft ADP data initially put pressure on equities, but falling yields and rising rate cut hopes appeared to give the market a boost later.

股市可能还获得最高法院裁决的支撑——允许美联储理事丽莎·库克在特朗普总统试图解雇她的诉讼期间留任。这缓解了市场对美联储独立性及库克潜在离职影响下次会议的担忧。被视为防御性板块的医疗保健周三领涨（其表现与AI热潮关联较小），该板块已持续走强。其3%涨幅是其他板块的三倍，而标普500十一大板块中有五个下跌。材料板块似乎受到欧盟考虑提高钢铁关税消息的压力。

Stocks might have also gotten support from the supreme court allowing Fed governor Lisa Cook to remain in her job while the court case around president Trump's attempt to fire her proceeds. This may ease worries about Fed independence and how Cook's potential exit might have affected the next meeting. Healthcare, seen as a defensive sector with fortunes less tied to the AI story, led gains Wednesday and has been on a roll. The 3% gain was triple that of any other sector, while five of 11 S and P 500 secondtors declined. Materials appeared to come under pressure from news of the European Union considering higher steel tariffs.

"七大巨头"中的两个主导板块——信息技术和非必需消费品表现稳健。briefing.com指出，年内表现垫底的医疗板块近期走强有多重原因：辉瑞强劲的试验结果、特朗普政府推出旨在降低药价的政府直营平台、以及可能降低成本的生物科技板块因利率走低受益。此外，低利率可能促进行业并购。昨日医疗保健大涨股包括辉瑞、礼来、默克、渤健、安进和再生元。芯片股周三同样表现优异，英特尔因CNBC等媒体报道其正洽谈将AMD纳入客户而大涨7%。

Two of the three magnificent seven dominated sectors, Infotech and consumer discretionary, had solid outings. Health stocks, which are in the bottom three sectors of the year, dramatically behind the overall market, appear to be gaining for several reasons, including strong trial results from Pfizer, the Trump administration's launch of a government run direct to consumer platform aimed at reducing drug costs, and biotech strength related to lower rates that could reduce costs, briefing.com noted. Also, lower rates might encourage more mergers in the space. Big health care gainers yesterday included Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Merck, Biogen, Amgen, and Regeneron. Chip stocks also performed well Wednesday led by a 7% gain in Intel as CNBC and other news outlets reported it's in talks to add advanced microdevices as a customer.

周三道琼斯工业平均指数上涨43.21点（0.09%）至46,441.10点；标普500指数攀升22.74点（0.34%）至6,711.20点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨95.15点（0.42%）收于22,755.16点。

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 43.21 points Wednesday or 0.09% to forty six thousand four forty one point one zero. The S and P 500 index climbed 22.74 points or 0.34% to six thousand seven eleven point two zero, and the Nasdaq Composite added 95.15 points or 0.42 to 22,755.16.

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