失业救济申请，降息后的关键盈利数据

欢迎收听嘉信理财市场动态播客，我们将带您回顾近期新闻并展望未来动向，为每个交易日做好准备。

Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead.

我是基思·兰斯福德，为您带来嘉信理财对9月18日周四市场的早间展望。美联储周三25个基点的降息决定几乎无人感到意外，从市场平淡反应来看也未能打动华尔街。尽管美联储在点阵图中预测今年还将降息两次，且就业下行风险加剧，但整体政策框架并未显现重大转变。决策者们仍在平衡稳定物价与充分就业的双重使命，某种程度上受制于这两项目标的分化趋势——央行的政策工具无法同时解决这两个问题。

I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Thursday, September 18. The Federal Reserve's quarter point rate cut Wednesday surprised few and left Wall Street unimpressed judging by the lackluster market response. While the Fed predicted two more rate cuts this year in its dot plot of projections as downside risks to employment worsen, there wasn't much sense of a big picture change. Instead, policymakers continued to juggle their dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment. To some extent, they're handicapped because the two mandates are diverging and the central bank's tools can't address both at once.

通胀居高不下之际，招聘和就业增长却在放缓。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔虽指出风险天平已向失业问题倾斜，并注意到经济活动放缓，但他同时表示关税推高了部分商品价格。他在记者会上称仍认为关税对价格只是单次性影响，但补充道'我们不能假定如此'。观察美联储最新利率预测，决策者仍比市场更保守，将2026年预期利率目标从3.6%下调至3.4%。而根据CME美联储观察工具，国债市场预计届时利率将在2.75%-3.25%之间。

Inflation stays stubborn while hiring and job creation retreat. Though Fed chairman Jerome Powell cited a shift in the balance of risks towards unemployment and noted moderating economic activity, he also observed that tariffs have pushed up the price of some goods. He said in his press conference, he still thinks tariffs will have a onetime effect on prices, but added, we can't assume that. Looking at the Fed's new rate projections, policymakers are still more conservative than the market, lowering the expected target rate to 3.4% by the 2026 from its previous 3.6%. The treasury market sees rates between 2.753.25% by then per the CME Fed watch tool.

美联储预测2027年底利率将降至3.1%（原为3.4%），这仍体现谨慎态度。其预计通胀到2028年才能达到2%目标，今年个人消费支出价格指数(PCE)仍维持6月预测的3%不变。今年预期降息次数从6月预测的合计两次增至更多。'劳动力市场疲软是本次降息的关键动因，'嘉信理财固定收益策略主管凯西·琼斯表示，'目前月均就业增长约7万人，基本符合维持失业率稳定所需水平。'

Fed projections fall to 3.1% by late twenty twenty seven, down from the previous 3.4%, but that still speaks to caution. The Fed doesn't expect inflation to reach its 2% goal until 2028 and sees this year's personal consumption expenditures or PCE inflation index at 3% unchanged from its June projection. The Fed expects two more cuts this year, up from June's projection of a total of two. The weakening in the labor market is the key driver behind the rate cut, said Kathy Jones, a chief of fixed income strategist at Schwab. It looks like job growth has slowed to about 70,000 per month, which is about in line with estimates for what is needed to keep the unemployment rate stable.

但失业率已逐步攀升，风险在于移民限制导致劳动力供给受限，加之关税使部分行业需求下降，可能进一步拖累就业增长。鲍威尔在记者会回答就业放缓原因时提及这两大因素。琼斯指出：'尽管就业放缓，通胀持续走高构成鲍威尔提到的挑战。决策者可选择暂时忽略当前通胀回升，假设关税传导效应终将结束。但由于关税政策变幻莫测，通胀难以稳定或回落。'

But it has been edging higher, and the risk is that job growth slows more as a result of immigration restrictions limiting supply and tariffs causing demand to drop in some industries. Powell cited both of those factors in his press conference when asked why job growth had slowed. Inflation keeps pushing higher despite the job slowdown, posing a challenge that Powell also mentioned. They can choose to look through the current upturn in inflation on the assumption that the tariff pass through will eventually end, Jones said. However, since tariff policy is ever changing, it's hard to get inflation to stabilize or come down.

此外通胀预期僵持在3%-3.5%区间，远高于2%目标。琼斯认为利率仍有下调空间，但主导趋势仍是收益率曲线陡峭化（即长期利率涨幅超过短期利率）。这对借贷的消费者和企业主而言尤为艰难，类似去年美联储降息但长期利率反升的情况。'当周期性放缓被市场消化后，各国债务水平攀升及关税政策对增长贸易的不确定性将成为新挑战。'琼斯预计10年期美债收益率或从当前4%略高处降至3.8%，但在高通胀和政策不确定性下难有更大降幅。

Moreover, inflation expectations are stuck near three to 3.5%, which is well above the 2% target. Jones sees rooms for rates to fall further, but still thinks the dominant trend is the steepening of the yield curve, meaning longer term yields gaining more than short term ones. That's tough on consumers and business owners who want to borrow when would be reminiscent of what happened last year when the Fed cut rates but longer term yields rose. Once a cyclical slowdown is priced in, the market will have to deal with the challenge of rising debt levels in all major developed countries and the uncertainty about tariff policies affecting growth and trade, Jones said. Jones thinks The US ten year treasury note yield could fall to 3.8% from its current mark, just above 4%, but not much lower given high inflation and policy uncertainty.

10年期收益率周三微升5个基点至4.08%。当前焦点在于投资者会继续关注降息刺激增长的潜力，还是促使美联储行动的悲观经济状况——这自然取决于通胀走势及经济与企业盈利对降息的反应。嘉信理财高级投资策略师凯文·戈登表示：'只要疲软的就业数据未伴随可持续的薪资增长和裁员潮，货币政策宽松仍可能支撑股市。'转观财报季，今日将陆续公布达登餐饮早间财报，联邦快递和莱纳建筑午后放榜。

The ten year yield rose five basis points to 4.08% Wednesday inching up after the rate cut. One question is whether investors continue to focus on the potential for rate cuts to juice growth or the downbeat conditions that prompted the Fed to act. That will depend, of course, on inflation and how the economy and corporate earnings respond to rate cuts. As long as weaker payroll data are not confirmed by sustainable increases and layoffs, the easing in monetary policy will likely be supportive for stocks, said Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Schwab. Turning away from the fad, it's a busy off season earnings day with results expected early from Darden Restaurants and this afternoon from FedEx and Lennar.

本周早些时候的零售销售数据显示消费者支出强劲，这些信息或许能揭示消费者现状。部分分析师认为这偏向高收入群体，鲍威尔在记者会上援引的坊间证据也支持这一观点。若富裕阶层保持乐观，或能提振新房销售及莱纳建筑的业绩，但新房销售长期低迷，许多建筑商已采取激励措施。7月新房中位价同比下跌5.9%，尽管面临关税导致的成本上升，建筑商利润率仍引发担忧。联邦快递的财报常被视为企业和消费者支出的晴雨表，上次其聚焦成本削减的财报公布后，市场反应积极。

All could shed light on consumers after retail sales earlier this week showed strong spending. Some analysts say this is skewed toward the upper end of the income scale, and Powell in his press conference said anecdotal evidence supports that view. If well off people remain optimistic, that could help new home sales and Lennar's business, but new home sales have been lackluster for a while and many homebuilders have resorted to incentives. Medium prices for new homes dropped 5.9% year over year in July, raising concerns about homebuilder margins even as they face higher costs due to tariffs. FedEx results are often a good barometer of both business and consumer spending, and the market reacted positively the last time it reported as the company focused on cost cuts.

然而异常需求仍拖累商业表现。在美联储正式采取行动提振疲软就业市场后，今日焦点转向每周初请失业金人数。预计美东时间8:30公布的数据将显示新增24.5万申请，较前一周意外高企的26.3万有所下降。该数据可能受德州申请激增影响——当地经济今年早些时候遭遇洪灾冲击，且失业援助截止日期近期被延长。下午将公布的长期国债净流入数据可能获得超常关注，因今年早些时候在关税担忧下，外资对美资产的兴趣曾成为焦点。

Freak demand continued to be a drag on business, however. Initial weekly jobless claims are in the spotlight today after the Fed officially took action to boost the sagging job market. The report due at 08:30AM eastern time is expected to show 245,000 new claims, down from a surprisingly high 263,000 the previous week. That figure may have been affected by a spike in claims from Texas where the economy was hit by tragic flooding earlier this year, and the deadline for unemployment assistance recently got extended. This afternoon brings data on net long term treasury market inflows, which might get more attention than usual because it tells the story of foreign interest in US assets that came under a microscope earlier this year amid tariff concerns.

昨日数据显示，8月新屋开工数环比下降8.5%，经季节调整年率为130.7万套，低于Briefing.com预期的137.5万套。建筑许可环比下降3.7%至131.2万套（季调后），低于137万套的预期。英格兰银行今晨公布利率决议，日本央行明日跟进，预计两者均维持利率不变。海外方面，英伟达昨日遭遇打击，《金融时报》报道中国要求企业停止采购其芯片。

In data yesterday, August housing starts fell eight and a half percent month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,307,000 units below the briefing.com consensus of 1,375,000. Building permits fell 3.7% month over month to 1,312,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis below the 1,370,000 consensus view. The Bank of England makes its rate decision this morning, and the Bank of Japan follows tomorrow. Both are expected to hold rates steady. Also overseas, NVIDIA suffered a blow yesterday when the Financial Times reported that China requested the companies not buy chips from NVIDIA.

本周初北京指控英伟达违反反垄断法。周三这家AI巨头股价下跌2.5%，竞争对手博通跌幅更大。同日主要股指震荡反复：降息消息公布后先涨后温和回落，标普500最终几近收平。例外是小盘股罗素2000指数，守住了美联储决议后的温和涨幅。小企业通常对利率更敏感，且罗素指数重仓地区性银行股——这类企业在低利率环境中往往表现更佳。

Earlier this week, Beijing accused NVIDIA of violating the country's anti monopoly laws. Shares of the AI giant fell two and a half percent Wednesday, while competitor Broadcom suffered even worse losses. Elsewhere, Wednesday, major indexes swung back and forth after the rate cut initially rising then falling moderately then recovering back to near unchanged for the S and P 500 index. The exception was the small cap Russell 2,000 index, which held on to modest post Fed gains. Smaller companies are often more rate sensitive and the Russell has heavy exposure to regional banks, which tend to do better in a low rate environment.

降息后标普500指数中消费类企业和银行表现亮眼：奈飞、永利度假村、摩根士丹利、达美航空、维萨和宝洁均上涨。特斯拉重启涨势，但科技股为主的纳斯达克受英伟达拖累。尽管利率下调，另一利率敏感板块住宅建筑商周三多数下跌，或因市场预期美联储立场将更鸽派。板块方面，金融、必需消费品和材料股周三领涨，信息技术板块垫底。

Consumer oriented companies and banks performed well on the S and P 500 index after the rate cut with Netflix, Wynn Resorts, Morgan Stanley, Delta Airlines, Visa, and Procter and Gamble climbing. Tesla resumed its rally, but the tech heavy Nasdaq was weighed down by Nvidia. Homebuilders, another rate sensitive sector, mostly fell Wednesday despite the lower rates, perhaps heard by expectations that the Fed's outlook would be more dovish. On a sector basis, financials, consumer staples, and materials led the way Wednesday. Infotech finished dead last.

周三道琼斯工业平均指数上涨260.42点（0.57%）至46018.32点；标普500指数下跌6.41点（0.1%）至6600.35点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌72.63点（0.33%）至22261.33点。

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 260.42 points Wednesday or 0.57% to 46,018.32. The S and P 500 index fell 6.41 points or 0.1% to 6,600.35, and the NASDAQ Composite dropped 72.63 points or 0.33% to 22,261.33.

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