就业数据紧随科技股抛售潮 市场情绪下滑

欢迎收听嘉信理财市场更新播客，我们通过回顾近期新闻和展望未来，为您做好每个交易日的准备。

Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead.

我是基思·兰斯福德，以下是嘉信理财对11月5日周三市场的早间展望。继昨日科技股重挫后，投资者今晨将关注就业数据。10月ADP就业报告预计在开盘前发布，预计显示新增2.6万个就业岗位。这远好于ADP九月份报告的私营部门就业减少3.2万人的情况，但仍远未达到通常认为的健康增长水平。尽管ADP数据很少与政府官方数据一致，但由于华盛顿特区截至本次录音时仍处于关闭状态，这是投资者唯一可参考的数据。

I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Wednesday, November 5. After yesterday's tech belly flop, investors get a look at some jobs data this morning. The October ADP employment report is due before the open and expected to show job growth of 26,000. That's far better than the 32,000 decline in private sector employment ADP reported in September, but not close to anything normally considered healthy growth. Though ADP's data seldom line up with official government numbers, it's all investors have to go on with DC still closed as of this recording.

芯片巨头超微半导体（AMD）的财报结果今早也备受关注，此前周二AI股票暴跌拖累整个市场。AMD公布的盈利超预期且业绩指引高于华尔街预估，但该股在盘后交易中几乎未动。周二的疲软反映出市场对AI实力的不确定，尽管Palantir周一盘后公布了强劲业绩并上调指引。Palantir财报延续了上周'七巨头'中五家公司的稳健表现，这些公司虽强化了对AI投入的承诺，但部分案例也引发对其维持投入而不损害利润率的担忧。分析师向财经媒体表示，Palantir的不足在于其对2026年前景缺乏明确指引。

Results from Advanced Microdevices, a major chip firm, also grabbed attention early today following a slump in AI stocks Tuesday that helped pull down the entire market. AMD reported better than expected earnings and shared guidance that topped Wall Street's estimates, but the stock barely budged in aftermarket trading. Tuesday's weakness reflected uncertainty about AI strength despite Palantir's strong results and increased guidance released late Monday. Palantir's earnings followed a solid showing last week by five magnificent seven firms, which reinforced their commitment to AI spending, but also raised concerns in some cases about their ability to keep doing so without hurting margins. The knock on Palantir, analysts told financial media, is that it didn't give much clarity about the twenty twenty six outlook.

投资者还因彭博报道Meta平台发行300亿美元债券建设AI数据中心而感到不安。尽管大公司进行杠杆操作并不罕见，但Meta此举强化了其支出可能超出投资者心理舒适度的看法。'市场数月来一直因相同利好消息上涨——包括贸易协议、鸽派美联储、强劲经济和AI长期增长故事，或许现在需要一些均值回归，'嘉信金融研究中心衍生品分析总监内森·彼得森表示。'Palantir所有指标全面超预期，股价却下跌。这类价格走势表明所有利好已被定价，或投资者对通过推高股价透支未来潜在收益变得自满，导致估值过高。'他补充指出Palantir公布财报前的市销率已超过80倍。

Investors also got unnerved by Bloomberg reporting that Meta Platforms sold $30,000,000,000 in bonds to help build AI data centers. Though it's not uncommon for even the biggest companies to take on some leverage, the move by Meta reinforced ideas that it may be spending more than investors are comfortable seeing. Markets have been moving higher on the same good news, including trade agreements, a dovish Fed, a strong economy, and the AI secular growth story for months now, and perhaps some mean reversion is needed, said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives analysis at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. Palantir beat across the board on every metric, yet the stock fell. This type of price action suggests that all the good news is priced in or that investors have gotten complacent around pulling future potential gains forward by bidding up the share price, sending valuations higher, Peterson added, noting that Palantir's forward price to sales ratio was over 80 leading in noting that Palantir's forward price to sales ratio was over 80 heading into results.

'市场心理在此发挥作用——这类AI成长股既然会在利好时抛售，那么在利空时会跌多少？'彼得森说道。一个技术面阻力来自半导体股的相对强弱指数（RSI），该板块近期上涨时RSI却下滑。这被称为负背离，通常被视为看跌信号。CBOE波动率指数VIX上周后期和周一从近期高点回落，周二又回升并一度突破19关口，但值得注意的是未触及10月市场回调时20以上的水平。

Market psychology comes into play here because of these types of AI growth stocks are going to sell off on good news, how much are they going to go down on bad news, Peterson said. One technical headwind came from the relative strength index for semiconductor stocks, which slid even as the sector advanced recently. This is called a negative divergence and is often seen as a bearish signal. The CBO volatility index or VIX, which relaxed late last week and Monday from recent highs, forged gains on Tuesday and traded above 19 at times. Significantly, it didn't test levels above 20 seen on October's market pullback.

未来可能出现更多震荡。从下月开始直至2026年中期，VIX期货呈现升水结构，交易区间远高于当前水平的21至22点。美元指数周二自8月初以来首次突破100关口，凸显股市下跌时资金转向避险资产。国债收益率虽有所下降，但仍高于上月低点，因缺乏政府数据令美联储下一步行动存疑。根据CME FedWatch工具，截至周二晚间市场预计下月降息概率为70%。

More choppiness could be ahead. Starting next month and stretching all the way out to mid twenty twenty six, VIX futures trade in contango well above the current level at between twenty one and twenty two. The US dollar index topped 100 for the first time since early August on Tuesday, highlighting an investor shift to perceived safe havens as the stock market dipped. Treasury yields fell as well but remain above last month's lows as uncertainty persists about the Federal Reserve's next move in the absence of government data. As of late Tuesday, chances of a rate cut next month were 70% according to the CME Fed watch tool.

市场广度仍令人担忧，加剧了对华尔街头部股票根基不稳的忧虑。截至周二收盘，标普500指数成分股中不足39%交易于50日均线上方，仅53%高于200日均线。这可能是强劲牛市动能减弱的又一迹象。高盛CEO所罗门和摩根士丹利CEO皮克周二的言论加剧了情绪转变，二人均暗示股市可能出现两位数跌幅。'未来12个月股市很可能出现10%至20%的回调，'《巴伦周刊》报道所罗门在香港活动中的发言。

Market breadth remains a concern, reinforcing worries of a top heavy Wall Street that stands on less sturdy foundations. Less than 39% of S and P 500 stocks traded above their fifty day moving averages as of late Tuesday, while just 53% traded above their two hundred day moving average. This might be another indication that the strong bullish uptrend could be losing steam. Comments early Tuesday by Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick played into the sentiment shift as both suggested the chance of double digit drawdowns in the equity markets. It's likely there will be a 10% to 20% drawdown in equity markets over the next twelve months, Solomon said at a Hong Kong event, Barron's reported.

这并不意味着资本流动的总体方向正在改变。只是表明市场会先上涨后回调，以便人们重新评估。本周约有100家标普500公司公布财报，包括麦当劳在今日开盘前，以及DoorDash、高通和ARM控股在收盘后。后两家公司将因可能透露AI需求信号而受到密切关注。高通也是由'七巨头'主导的云市场参与者之一。

That doesn't mean the general direction of capital flows is changing. It just means that things run and then pull back so people can reassess. About 100 S and P 500 companies report this week, including McDonald's before today's open and DoorDash, Qualcomm, and ARM Holdings after the close. The latter two will be watched closely for any hints on AI demand. Qualcomm is also a player in the cloud market dominated by magnificent seven firms.

Arista Networks成为周二盘后最新一家股价暴跌两位数的科技公司，尽管其盈利超预期。投资者似乎对符合预期但未能超预期的业绩指引感到失望。超微电脑与Arista一同在周二盘后交易中受挫，因季度收入未达共识且每股收益低于平均预期。该公司还预测第二季度每股收益将低于共识。今日，最高法院开始审理针对特朗普总统进口关税的挑战。

Arista Networks became the latest tech firm to see shares dive double digits late Tuesday despite an earnings beat. Investors appeared disappointed by guidance, which was in line with expectations and failed to beat expectations. Super Microcomputer joined Arista in the penalty box in initial post market trading Tuesday as quarterly revenues fell short of consensus and earnings per share missed the average estimate. The company also guided for second quarter earnings per share below consensus. Today, the supreme court begins hearing arguments challenging president Trump's import tariffs.

财政部长斯科特·贝桑特将出席听证会，他主张这些关税对美国贸易政策至关重要。尽管尚不清楚法院何时裁决及其对市场的初步影响。投资者或许应关注新闻以获取大法官倾向的线索。主要指数周二下跌后未能回升，下行过程中未见任何逢低买盘。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数跌幅最大达2%，罗素2000小型股指数下跌近1.5%。

Treasury secretary Scott Bessant, who argues that the tariffs are critical for US trade policy, will attend. Though it's unclear when the court might rule and the initial market impact when that happens is unclear. Investors might want to follow the news for any hints of which way the justices might lean. Major indexes fell and couldn't get up Tuesday, never drawing anything in the way of dip buying on the way down. The tech heavy NASDAQ Composite suffered most with a 2% decline, and the Russell two thousand small cap index fell nearly one and a half percent.

这反映出可能的避险交易，可能不仅源于对AI估值的担忧，还包括美国政府长期停摆及周二的选举。观察周二板块表现，通常在科技和芯片市场下跌时表现良好的防御性板块——医疗保健、必需消费品和房地产位列标普500涨幅前四。金融板块领涨，主要得益于阿波罗全球管理在强劲财报显示其贷款业务增长后上涨5%。信息技术板块下跌2%，受英伟达重挫近4%及半导体板块整体拖累。优步尽管盈利超预期仍跌5%，特斯拉因CEO薪酬争议下跌5%。

This speaks to possible risk off trading then could reflect nerves not just around AI valuations, but also the lengthy US shutdown and Tuesday's elections. Checking sector performance Tuesday, the usual suspects that tend to do well on down days for the tech and chip market made an appearance with health care, staples, and real estate among the top four S and P 500 performers. Financials led all sectors, Tuesday, helped by a 5% gain for Apollo Global Management after a solid earnings report reflecting strong growth in its capital solutions business, which originates loans. Infotech fell 2% on Tuesday, hurt by a nearly 4% drop for NVIDIA and similar losses for semiconductors overall. Uber fell 5% despite an earnings beat, and Tesla dropped 5% amid worries about its CEO's pay package demands.

个股方面，Palantir周二暴跌近9%。财经媒体报道称，尽管盈利稳健且指引乐观，但反映市场对其2026年前景缺乏可见性。Palantir估值极高，使其股价对任何指引模糊更为敏感。加密货币股票受比特币跌至四个月低点拖累，因市场整体避险情绪。比特币期货自6月以来首次跌破10万美元，较一个月前创下的12.6万美元历史高位大幅回落。

Looking at individual names, Palantir dropped nearly 9% Tuesday. The losses that came despite solid earnings and upbeat guidance may reflect a lack of visibility into 2026, financial media reported. Palantir also trades at a very high valuation, likely making shares more sensitive to any lack of clarity and guidance. Crypto shares got dragged by a plunge to four month lows for Bitcoin amid a general risk off session. Bitcoin futures dropped below $100,000 for the first time since June and are well off the all time high close above $126,000 posted a month ago.

挪威邮轮控股因季度收入未达华尔街预期暴跌15%，尽管每股收益超共识且公司上调指引，其他邮轮公司联动下跌。今年受投资者青睐的多只科技股跟随Palantir下跌，包括英特尔、美光和Coreweave。苹果逆势上涨，因其在艰难时期常因雄厚资产负债表吸引投资者。

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings sank 15% after revenue for the quarter missed Wall Street's expectations. Earnings per share topped consensus, and the company raised guidance. Other cruise lines fell in sympathy. A number of tech stocks popular with investors this year followed Palantir down, including Intel, Micron, and Coreweave. Apple bucked the downward trend as it sometimes does because on tough days, investors are sometimes drawn to its hefty balance sheet.

伯克希尔哈撒韦可能同样如此，该股周二上涨2.5%。彼得森指出，从中期看牛市趋势仍完好，但短期可能出现盘整或均值回归。Briefing.com数据显示，纽约证交所周二下跌股与上涨股比例约为2:1。关键支撑位可能在20日均线6747点，略低于周二收盘价。道琼斯工业平均指数周二重挫251.4点（0.53%）至47085.24点。

The same is likely true for Berkshire Hathaway, which rose two and a half percent Tuesday. Technically, the bullish uptrend remains intact on an intermediate term basis, Peterson said, but near term could see some consolidation or mean reversion. But declining shares outpaced advancing ones by about a two to one ratio on the New York Stock Exchange Tuesday, briefing.com noted. Key support might be at the twenty day moving average of six thousand seven forty seven just below Tuesday's close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged to 251.4 points Tuesday or 0.53% to 47,085.24.

标普500指数下跌80.42点，跌幅1.17%，报6007.71.55点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌486.09点，跌幅2.04%，报23,348.64点。

The S and P 500 index lost 80.42 points or 1.17 to $6007.71.55, and the Nasdaq Composite gave back 486.09 points or 2.04% to 23,348.64.

这里是嘉信理财市场动态播客。欲持续获取最新资讯，请访问www.schwab.com/marketupdate或在您喜爱的播客应用中免费订阅我们。若喜欢本期内容，请考虑为我们评分或留言，这将帮助更多新听众发现本节目。明天我们将继续为您带来最新市场动态。

This has been the Schwab Market Update podcast. To stay informed, visit www.schwab.com/marketupdate or follow us for free in your favorite podcasting app. And if you like what you've heard, please consider leaving us a rating or a review. It really helps new listeners find the show. Join us for another update tomorrow.

重要声明详见节目备注及schwab.com/marketupdatepodcast。

For important disclosures, see the show notes and schwab.com/marketupdatepodcast.