鲍威尔即将登场，股市创下AI驱动的新高

欢迎收听嘉信理财市场动态播客，我们将带您回顾近期新闻并展望未来，为每个交易日做好准备。我是科莱特·奥克莱尔，以下是嘉信理财对9月23日周二市场的早间展望。在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔午间讲话前，股市可能维持横盘走势——周一多位政策制定者对进一步降息表态冷淡。尽管美联储鹰派言论不断，但人工智能相关热潮推动主要指数创下新高，英伟达和苹果股价昨日均获上涨动能。鲍威尔将于东部时间12:35就通胀和就业发表的任何言论，都可能影响股市和国债收益率。

Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead. I'm Colette O'Clare, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Tuesday, September 23. Stocks might tread water heading into a lunchtime speech by Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell after several policymakers sounded unenthusiastic about further rate cuts Monday. Despite the hawkish Fed talk, AI related excitement sent major indexes to new highs as Nvidia and Apple both gained momentum yesterday. Anything Powell says in his 12:35 p.

上周美联储自12月以来首次降息后，周一多位美联储官员开启了本周的系列讲话。据彭博社报道，圣路易斯联储主席阿尔贝托·穆塞勒姆表示进一步降息的空间有限。

M. Eastern Time remarks about inflation and jobs could potentially move both stocks and treasury yields. Several Fed speakers kicked off the week Monday with remarks of their own after the Fed lowered rates last week for the first time since December. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Mousselem said there's limited room for more rate cuts, Bloomberg reported.

《华尔街日报》报道称，亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克认为上周的降息可能是今年唯一必要的一次。根据CME FedWatch工具，期货市场预计今年还将有两次降息，其中10月下旬美联储会议降息25个基点的概率约为90%。周一的保守派美联储言论使该概率略有下降。本周关键数据包括明日公布的8月新屋销售和周四修正的第二季度国内生产总值，但周五公布的个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数——美联储密切关注的通胀指标——可能产生最大影响。

And Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostik said he thinks the cut last week was likely the only one needed this year, The Wall Street Journal reported. The futures market prices in two more cuts this year, with odds of around 90% for a 25 basis point trim at the Fed's late October meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. That number dropped just slightly on Monday's conservative Fed talk. Key data this week include August new home sales tomorrow and an updated look at second quarter gross domestic product Thursday. But Friday's personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, price index, an inflation reading closely watched by the Fed is likely to have the most influence.

嘉信理财首席固定收益策略师凯西·琼斯表示，PCE物价指数可能显示通胀持续缓慢上升。分析师预计8月PCE环比上涨0.3%，高于7月的0.2%。剔除能源和食品价格的核心PCE预计8月上涨0.2%，低于7月的0.3%。据briefing.com数据，周三东部时间上午10点公布的8月新屋销售年率经季节调整后预计为65万套，与7月的65.2万套基本持平。

The PCE price index is likely to show that inflation continues to edge higher, said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab. Analysts expect August PCE to climb 0.3%, up from 0.2% in July. Core PCE, which excludes energy and food prices, is seen rising 0.2% in August, down from 0.3% in July. New home sales due at ten a. M.

投资者可能再次关注销售中位数价格——7月该价格同比下跌近6%。建筑商一直在提供激励措施吸引买家。7月新屋销售量同比下降超8%，表明降价未必能刺激需求。本周华盛顿特区的关注度可能上升，因政府月底可能面临停摆。

Eastern Time Wednesday are seen at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $650,000 in August, essentially unchanged from $652,000 in July, according to briefing.com. Investors once again will likely watch the median sales price, which dipped nearly 6% year over year in July. Homebuilders have been offering incentives to get buyers interested. New home sales fell more than 8% in volume from a year earlier in July, a sign that lower prices aren't necessarily drawing more demand. This week could also see increased focus on Washington, D.

嘉信理财立法与监管事务董事总经理迈克尔·汤森德表示：“我们认为10月政府停摆的概率约五五开，不过最后一刻达成协议是这些年度资金对峙的标志性特征。”历史数据显示政府停摆对市场影响有限。但琼斯指出，国债有时会在政府停摆期间上涨。财报方面，投资者本周关注美光科技、好市多和KB Home的业绩。

C, as a government shutdown possibly looms by the end of the month. We would put the odds of a shutdown at the October at about fiftyfifty, though last minute agreements are a hallmark of these annual funding showdowns, said Michael Townsend, managing director, legislative and regulatory affairs at Schwab. Historically, government shutdowns have not been big market movers. That said, treasuries have sometimes rallied on government shutdowns in the past, Schwab's Jones noted. On the earnings front, investors await results this week from Micron, Costco, and KB Home.

芯片制造商美光科技今日下午的财报备受期待——该公司上次业绩超出分析师预期，且摩根士丹利周一早盘上调了三家芯片组件供应商的评级。CNBC当时报道称，美光6月的预测稳健，公司看到因AI繁荣带来的高带宽内存市场需求强劲。周一英伟达与OpenAI宣布战略合作，将部署至少10吉瓦的英伟达系统用于OpenAI下一代AI基础设施，投资者保持买入情绪。该公司向CNBC表示，这将涉及数百万块英伟达GPU，远超上月公布的销售指引。据《巴伦周刊》报道，英伟达还将向OpenAI投资高达1000亿美元以支持数据中心扩容。

This afternoon's results from chipmaker Micron loom large after it beat analysts' expectations last time out, and Morgan Stanley upgraded shares of three chip component suppliers early Monday. Micron's forecast in June was solid, with the company seeing strong demand in the high bandwidth memory market due to the AI boom, CNBC reported at the time. Investors stayed in a buying mood Monday after NVIDIA and OpenAI announced its strategic partnership to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems for OpenAI's next generation AI infrastructure. This will represent millions of NVIDIA graphics processing unit or GPUs and is above and beyond NVIDIA's previous sales guidance delivered last month, the company told CNBC. NVIDIA will also invest up to $100,000,000,000 in OpenAI to support the build out of data center capacity, Barron's reported.

英伟达股价昨日创下盘中历史新高。苹果股价周一也逼近历史峰值，因韦德布什证券公司将目标股价上调至310美元，因有迹象显示iPhone 17早期需求强劲。虽然已是九月下旬，但周一的上涨终于使苹果股价年内转正，此前由于市场担忧其在AI竞赛中落后，其股价全年大部分时间远低于去年12月底的高点。周一其他异动个股包括拉姆研究、阿斯麦和应用材料，均因摩根士丹利上调评级而上涨，这或提振芯片板块人气。辉瑞周一上涨，因同意以高达49亿美元收购减肥药开发商Metcira，Metsera股价因此飙升逾59%。

Shares of Nvidia posted an all time intraday high yesterday. Apple also approached all time peaks Monday as Wedbush raised its price target on the stock to $310 on signs of strong early demand for the iPhone 17. It's late September, but Monday's move finally made Apple stock positive for the year after it spent most of the year well below its late December highs on worries it's fallen behind in the AI race. Other stocks on the move Monday included Lam Research, ASML, and Applied Materials, all rising on upgrades from Morgan Stanley, a potential boost for chip sector sentiment. Pfizer rose Monday after agreeing to buy weight loss drug developer Metcira for as much as $4,900,000,000 Shares of Metsera surged more than 59% on the news.

据《金融时报》报道，若达成三项特定临床试验里程碑，该交易价值可能超70亿美元。特斯拉获Baird上调评级且Piper Sandler提高目标价后大涨近2%。甲骨文股价持续走强，因《巴伦周刊》报道白宫官员称将成立合资企业运营TikTok美国新版本，甲骨文将参与投资。特朗普总统签署公告改革H-1B签证计划，要求申请人支付10万美元费用并引发行业劳动力供应担忧，但大型科技股和

The deal could be worth more than $7,000,000,000 if three specific clinical trial milestones are met, the Financial Times reported. Tesla surged nearly 2% after getting an upgrade from Baird and seeing its price target elevated by Piper Sandler. Oracle also remained hot after a White House official said a joint venture would be formed to manage a new US version of social media platform TikTok, Barron's reported. Oracle would be among the investors in the venture. Major Tech and Magnificent Seven stocks didn't appear initially affected today by news that President Trump signed a proclamation to overhaul the H-1B visa program, requiring a $100,000 fee for applicants and raising concerns about the future availability of workers for the industry.

从技术面看，标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数的相对强弱指数(RSI)均高于70，这一水平传统上被视为超买。虽然这未必意味着市场将回调，但RSI高于该水平的情况较为罕见。纳斯达克综合指数今年RSI高点为7月的76。RSI是动量指标。当前市场估值处于历史高位，但这反映了利润率较高的大型科技股的价格。

Technically, the S and P five hundred and the NASDAQ Composite are both above 70 in terms of their respective Relative Strength Indexes, or RSI, territory historically considered overbought. Though that doesn't necessarily mean the market faces a pullback, RSIs higher than these levels occur rarely. The high RSI for the NASDAQ Composite this year was 76 in July. RSI is a momentum indicator. The market sits at historically high valuations, though that reflects prices of the biggest tech stocks with their large margins.

若在传统股市淡季的九月下旬出现回调，投资者或可关注标普500指数20日移动均线附近的潜在支撑位，目前该均线位于6525点附近。标普500指数RSI上周微升至70上方，传统上该水平可能引发超买担忧。十年期美债收益率昨日持平于4.14%，仍高于美联储降息前近4%的低点。今日将进行690亿美元两年期国债拍卖，结果料于午后公布。近期拍卖需求稳健，但若在当前收益率下出现疲软迹象，可能对国债施压并推高收益率，或对股市构成阻力。

If there's any late September pullback in what's traditionally a weak time of the year for equities, investors may want to look for possible support near the twenty day moving average for the S and P 500 Index, which now stands near 6,525. The relative strength index of the S and P 500 inched above 70 last week, traditionally a level where worries of overbought conditions sometimes emerge. The ten year Treasury yield finished flat at 4.14% yesterday, still up from lows near 4% posted ahead of the Fed rate cut. Today features a $69,000,000,000 two year note auction, results of which are likely by early afternoon. Recent auctions saw solid demand, but any sign of weakening at current yields might put pressure on treasuries and send yields higher, a possible headwind for stocks.

嘉信理财的Kathy Jones表示：

The dominant trend is likely to continue to be yield curve steepening, said Schwab's Kathy Jones, Until there are signs that inflation is beginning to turn lower and or deficits are coming under control, the long end of the bond market is likely to remain elevated relative to the short end, which is driven by Fed policy. For the ten year yield, 4.25% represents the fifty day moving average and potentially a near term resistance level, Schwab's Peterson said. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 66.27 points or 0.14% to 46,381.54. The S and P 500 climbed 29.39 points or 0.44% to 6,693.75. And the Nasdaq Composite rose 157.5 points or 0.7% to 22,788.98.

本期嘉信理财市场更新播客到此结束。欲获取最新资讯，请访问schwab.com/marketupdate或在您喜爱的播客应用中免费订阅。若喜欢我们的节目，请考虑给予评分或评论，这将帮助新听众发现我们。明天再见。

This has been the Schwab Market Update podcast. To stay informed, visit schwab.com/marketupdate or follow for free in your favorite podcasting app. And if you like what you've heard, please consider leaving us a rating or review. It really helps new listeners find the show. Join us for another update tomorrow.

重要声明详见节目备注及schwab.com/marketupdatepodcast。

For important disclosures, see the show notes and schwab.com/marketupdatepodcast.