期权角：ADBE

回到《晨间动态》。Adobe将在收盘后公布第二季度财报时成为焦点。分析师预计调整后每股收益为5.17美元，营收达59亿美元。Adobe的多头确实需要一些好消息，该股今年下跌21%，过去十二个月累计下跌近40%。

Back on Morning Movers. Adobe in the spotlight after the close when the company reports second quarter earnings. Analysts are expected adjusted EPS to come in at $5.17 to share with revenue to come in at 5,900,000,000.0. Adobe Bulls certainly needs some good news. Stock down 21% this year, nearly 40% over the last twelve months.

确实相当艰难。现在进入期权专栏环节。我们有请首席市场技术分析师里克·杜凯特来深入分析Adobe。好的里克，我们来聊聊这张走势图。

Really rough right there. Time now for options corner. Joining us to take a deeper look at Adobe. We've got Rick Duquette, lead market technician. Alright, Rick, let's talk about this chart.

Adobe最近确实处境艰难。

It's been really rough for Adobe.

软件板块在标普科技领域并非最强阵营，某种程度上被Palantir带偏了节奏。Adobe一直是软件订阅服务的先锋代表，但这类模式总体上不太受市场青睐，导致其股价年内下跌近40%。

Software has not been the strongest sector in the, S and P technology area here. It's all kind of thrown off by Palantir. You know? And Adobe has been at the forefront of kind of the the software as subscription service here. So, something people don't enjoy very much in general, but down almost 40% on the year or so.

仔细观察我们的蜡烛图，可以看到Adobe自去年12月11日财报发布后便持续走低。整体形态呈现下降三角形模式——上方是向下倾斜的趋势线，底部在332-333美元形成双底支撑位，最近几个交易日已形成三重底结构。

And if we were to look at our candle chart more closely, we could see that Adobe has seen a long slide downward since we saw, that earnings event on December 11 last time. The general shape would be more of this descending, triangle type, pattern here where we have a downward sloping trend line and a horizontal area. 33, three thirty two would be a double bottom area of support. That's about where we, just hit during the past few sessions. Now it's become a triple bottom type area here.

现在我们需要观察股价能否突破趋势线压力。结合成交量分布和标准差通道等技术指标（暂时保持当前图表），可见RSI指标已跌破绿色支撑线，但仍接近50中轴。目前股价仍位于移动平均线和趋势线下方。

So we can see now that we're looking for a push above that boundary that we would see for our trend line there. So, if we were to consider more about our our other studies here, volume profile and standard deviation channels, we'll just stay on this chart for one moment here. See the RSI has been broken. Our green line at the bottom there has been, interrupted, but we are still close to that 50 midline. We can also see price hanging out below our moving averages and below our trend line there.

自那次财报后形势持续恶化。切换到下一张图表可见，成交量分布和标准差通道显示我们正处在关键成交量节点区域——这是多头必须坚守的防线，否则可能下探332美元低点。最后看今日分析网格：本月期权预期波动范围在两条橙色线之间，幅度约±3.6%。

So it's, pretty much deteriorated ever since that earnings event here. If we could scroll to our next chart now, we can see that the volume profile and standard deviation channel studies, show that we are in the thick of a the last significant volume node on the chart before we start to get back to those lows near three thirty two. This is the heavy volume area where the bulls need to really make a stand. Otherwise, it could be a difficult situation. If we could push to our our last chart and our our grid today, we can see that the expected move for the monthly series here is between those two orange lines, about a move of plus minus 3.6% or so.

这大致就是该股的波动范围，不会太远超出我们近期看到的高点和低点。

So that would be the general range, not too terribly far beyond the recent highs and lows that we've seen in this stock.

好的。明白了。谢谢里克为我们分析Adobe的图表和近期走势。现在让我们来看一个交易示例，有请快速市场节目的联合主持人兼资深期权撰稿人汤姆·怀特。

Okay. Alright. Thank you, Rick, for a look at the charts and recent activity in Adobe. Now take us through an example trade. We've got Tom White, senior options contributor, and cohost of Fast Market.

那么汤姆，考虑到Adobe今天收盘后即将发布财报，你会如何设计一个示例交易？

Alright, Tom. So how would you set up an example trade given that we've got earnings from Adobe due after the close today?

是的。我认为里克图表的关键信息是330美元这个水平——过去六个月里该价位曾多次形成支撑。必须考虑这一点。期权市场定价显示股价可能双向波动约±9%，即单日标准差波动超过32美元，而期权明天就到期。

Yeah. I think one of the key takeaways, from Rick's charts were that three thirty level that it's based out a couple times over the last six months. You gotta take that into consideration. Option markets pricing in about a plus or minus 9% move either way in the shares. That's over $32, either way, on a one standard deviation, a one day move, and then expiration is tomorrow.

因此要考虑到：该股的实际波动率处于极高水平，隐含波动率百分位达到100%。这意味着Adobe当前隐含波动率处于过去52周最高点。如果你想利用某些策略来把握高隐含波动率的机会，现在正是时候。

So, take that into consideration. Applied volatility levels really elevated in this name. IV percentile ranks at a 100%. So we're at the highest level in implied volatility for Adobe over the last fifty two weeks. So that provides some opportunities if you want to use certain strategies that take advantage of that higher implied volatility.

我研究了一个相关策略——在9月12日这周仅剩一天到期的期权中，采用卖出看跌垂直价差。这是个超短线布局。我们卖出330美元行权价的看跌期权（过去数月该价位一直是良好支撑位），同时为了控制风险（因为Adobe过去四次财报后股价都大幅下跌），我们买入320美元看跌期权进行对冲——但当前股价也正好处于历史支撑位。

So I looked at one that does, and I looked at a short put vertical here in the September 12 weekly cycle that expires in just one day, Really short term positioning. We're gonna sell that three thirty strike put. It's been a good base of support over the last several months. And then against it because we wanna stay risk defined for the last four earnings reports out of Adobe, the stock has sold off sharply. So we gotta take that into consideration, but we're also at levels we've where we based out.

具体操作：卖出330美元看跌期权/买入320美元看跌期权，构建10美元宽度的中性偏多看跌垂直价差。若股价在355美元附近开盘，预计可获得约2.50美元权利金，即每份价差盈利250美元，风险750美元。盈亏平衡点下探至327.50美元（较当前股价低约8%），基本符合单日标准差波动预期。

So selling the $3.30 put, buying the $3.20 put short $10 wide neutral to bullish put vertical. You're gonna collect roughly if the stock opens up here around $355, you're gonna collect roughly about a $2.50 credit. That's what you can make on this trade, $250 per spread with $750 in risk, but it takes a break even all the way down to $3.27 50 to the downside. That's about 8% below the current share price where the stock's gonna open up here around $3.55. So about that one standard deviation.

因此你要在3.30美元价位附近寻找支撑。这个策略在四分之三的情况下都能盈利——无论股价上涨、横盘，还是你判断失误但股价仍高于3.30美元时，这笔高胜率交易都能获利。3.30美元行权价到期作废的概率约70%，这正是你需要的。

So you look for that support around the $3.30 level. You profit in three out of four scenarios on this one. If the stock goes higher, stays where it is, or you're wrong and it goes lower but stays above $3.30, you're gonna be profitable on this high probability of trade where you've got a probability of finishing out of the money on that $3.30 strike, which is what you want of about 70%.

好的，明白了。谢谢汤姆，这是针对今天盘后公布财报的Adobe公司的一个交易案例。

Okay. Alright. Thank you, Tom. That's an example trade there for Adobe Scott earnings due after the bell today.