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欢迎收听愤世嫉俗播客，这是一档每周讨论中国时事的节目。
Welcome to the cynical podcast, a weekly discussion of current affairs in China.
在本节目中，我们将探讨书籍、思想、最新研究、知识潮流以及文化趋势，帮助我们更好地理解中国政治、外交、经济和社会正在发生的变化。
In this program, we'll look books, ideas, new research, intellectual currents, and cultural trends that can help us better understand what's happening in China's politics, foreign relations, economics, and society.
每周请与我一起参与深入对话，以更清晰、更少情绪化的视角来思考和讨论中国。
Join me each week for in-depth conversations that shed more light and bring less heat to how we think and talk about China.
我是凯泽·郭，来自北卡罗来纳州教堂山。
I'm Kaiser Guo coming to you from Chapel Hill, North Carolina.
今年，《塞内卡》播客由威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校东亚研究中心支持，该中心是东亚研究的国家级资源中心。
Seneca is supported this year by the Center for East Asian Studies at the University of Wisconsin Madison, a national resource center for the study of East Asia.
《塞内卡》播客将保持免费。
The Seneca podcast will remain free.
但如果您就职于一家认同我所做播客工作的机构，请考虑给予支持。
But if you work for an organization that believes in what I'm doing with the podcast, please consider lending your support.
您可以通过邮箱 Senecapod@Gmail.com 联系我。
You can get me at Senecapod@Gmail.com.
此外，听众们请通过 Substack 支持我的作品，网址是 syneka.substack.com。
And listeners, please support my work on Substack at syneka dot substack dot com.
在那里，除了播客之外，您还能找到节目的完整文字稿、我每周撰写的随笔，以及来自您最喜爱的中国问题专栏作家和评论员的丰富内容，比如詹姆斯·卡特、保罗·弗伦奇、安德鲁·梅思文，当然还有中国全球南方项目团队的各位。
There, you will find, in addition to the podcast, the complete transcript of the show, a weekly essay from me, and now a wide range of offerings from some of your favorite China focused columnists and commentators like James Carter, Paul French, Andrew Methvin, and, of course, the guys at the China Global South Project.
今天在《Syndicate》节目中，我非常高兴地欢迎记者兼作家乔纳森·查特温，他的作品曾发表于众多出版物。
Today on Syndicate, I am delighted to welcome Jonathan Chatwin, a journalist and author whose work has appeared in many publications.
当然，没有比《中国项目》更重要的了，他曾是该平台的杰出撰稿人。
None, of course, as significant as the late great China project where he was a wonderful contributor.
他著有《长治街》一书，该书通过沿北京中轴线长安街从头到尾的一次步行，探讨了这座我生活了二十年的城市。
He is the author of Long Peace Street, a book that used the device of an end to end stroll down Beijing's central artery Chang'anjie to talk about that city where I lived for twenty years.
他最近出版了一本新书，深入探讨了中国近期历史中一个关键事件——邓小平著名的1992年南方视察。
He has just published a great new book examining a pivotal event in China's recent history, Deng Xiaoping's well known Nanxuan or southern tour, which took place in early nineteen ninety two.
这本书名为《南方视察：邓小平与中国未来的斗争》。
The book is called The Southern Tour, Deng Xiaoping and the Fight for China's Future.
该书于5月16日刚刚出版，已获得应得的热烈好评。
It just came out on May 16, and it's already gotten deservedly terrific reviews.
乔纳森·查特温，祝贺你的新书出版，欢迎来到Synagogue。
Jonathan Chatwin, congratulations on the book, and welcome to Synagogue.
谢谢，凯撒。
Thanks, Kaiser.
能和你在一起真是太好了。
It's great to be here with you.
我想先问你，是什么让你对南方视察这个主题特别感兴趣？
Let me start by asking you what it was that you found especially compelling about the southern tour as a subject.
你是否隐约觉得，围绕这一事件的主流观点存在某种错误或偏差，有什么被遗漏、误导或过度炒作、过度简化的部分？
Did you have a a hunch maybe that the conventional wisdom around it was somehow wrong or off, that something was missing or misleading or overhyped or overly simplified?
还是说，你只是认为这一事件如此关键，是如此重要的历史节点，却尚未得到充分的探讨？
Or or did you just think that it was so pivotal, such a pivotal piece of history that it just hadn't been explored sufficiently?
在我看来，它连接了两个我非常感兴趣的领域。
Well, it seemed to me to connect two different areas that I was quite interested in.
我的背景其实是英国文学，我拥有英国文学博士学位，专门研究旅行文学。
My background is actually in English literature, so I have a PhD in English literature, specifically looking at travel writing.
我一直对旅程作为隐喻和探索不同文化的方式感兴趣。
And so I've always been interested in journeys as metaphors and ways of exploring different cultures.
我也非常关注中国共产党如何塑造历史。
I also am very interested in the way in which the CCP have looked to shape, history.
当我住在中国时，我总是对参观中国的博物馆感到着迷，看到他们如何淡化了可能存在的叙事。
And when I lived in China, I was always fascinated by going to China's museums and seeing the ways in which they had smoothed potentially the narrative.
邓小平的南方视察在我看来是一个毫无疑问具有重要历史意义的事件，同时也被大量神话化了。
And Deng Xiaoping's Southern Tour seems to me a really good example of of indisputably important historical event, which has also subject to a great deal of mythologization.
我被这个主题吸引的另一个原因是，它给了我重新追溯这段旅程、穿越中国、进行约三千英里的重走邓小平足迹之旅的机会，以看看他的遗产究竟是什么样子。
And another reason that I was attracted to it as a subject was that it offered me the opportunity to retrace that journey and travel through China, do sort of 3,000 mile, retracing of Deng's steps to try and see what what his legacy looked like.
这发生在2019年。
This was in 2019.
我很幸运，赶在新冠疫情之前完成了这次旅行。
I was lucky enough just to get it in before before COVID.
是的。
Yeah.
真正去看看他曾经到过的地方发生了什么，以及这些年来它们是如何变化的。
And really see, you know, what what had happened to the places that he visited and how how they changed in the intervening years.
所以你觉得这有点被神话化了吗？
So you think it was a little bit mythologized?
我的意思是，说到关于南巡的主流叙事，中国国内和所谓的中国观察家之间存在着大量共识。
I mean, because it strikes me that when it comes to sort of the conventional narrative on on the Nanxing, on the southern tour, there's a great deal of correspondence between the sort of received wisdom both in China and among so called China watchers.
我的意思是，也许我就是这种观点的典型代表。
I mean, maybe I I'm a good representative of of it.
我的版本基本上也符合主流说法。
I mean, my own version of it would be pretty much in keeping with convention.
它大概会是这样的：天安门事件之后，邓小平意识到，保守派由于这场九死一生的经历而深受震动，而仅仅十八个月后，又目睹了苏联共产主义的崩溃。
It would go something like, you know, after Tiananmen, Deng Xiaoping realizes that, you know, the conservatives in a sense are so shaken by this near death experience and then, you know, looking at the collapse of Soviet communism, just eighteen months later.
所以他们占据了上风。
So they've got the upper hand.
对吧？
Right?
情况看起来很糟糕。
Things look terrible.
邓小平担心，人们会把经济发展的婴儿连同危险的政治自由化这盆洗澡水一起倒掉，而后者可能导致党的崩溃。
Deng is worried that they're about to throw out the the the baby of of economic growth with the bathwater of dangerous political liberalization that could lead to the party's collapse.
因此，你知道，由于邓小平希望继续推进经济自由化，持续促进经济增长。
And so, you know, since Dong wants to continue liberalizing the economy, continuing to grow the economy.
他受到党内强硬派的威胁，于是采取了一种类似毛泽东式的迂回策略，抢先一步，宣布致力于深化改革开放，高度赞扬深圳和其他经济特区，并最终取得胜利。
He's imperiled by these party hardliners, he does a kind of Mao style end run around them, preempting them, basically, by proclaiming a commitment to deepen reform and and opening exalting Shenzhen and the other SEZs, and he prevails.
对吧？
Right?
保守派逐渐失势。
The conservatives go into eclipse.
江泽民和朱镕基随后引领中国不可逆转地走向伟大，成为全球增长最强劲的引擎，并建立起舒适富裕的中产阶级社会，诸如此类的美好前景。
Jiang Zemin and Zhuangji lead China then inexorably toward greatness in the world's greatest growth engine and, you know, comfortably middle class society, all that good stuff.
对吧？
Right?
我的意思是，这基本上是对的。
I mean, that's sort of right.
这不就是我们通常讲述的方式吗？
Isn't that kind of how we all tell it?
是的。
Yeah.
我认为你说得对，因为我觉得改革开放时期的一个有趣之处在于，中国和西方的主流叙事之间的冲突，相比毛泽东时代要少得多。
I think that's, I think you're right in the sense that what I find it quite interesting where the reform opening period in general is that there's much less of a clash, I think, between the received narratives in China and the West, I think, compared to the the Ma the Mao era.
我认为，就南方谈话而言，它确实产生了非常重大的影响，正如你所说，终结了一段不确定的时期。
And I think, you know, if you look at something like the Southern Tour, it's indisputable that it had a very significant impact in terms of, as you say, closing off a period of uncertainty.
我认为，甚至在1989年之前，回到1988年的通胀危机，那时邓小平和乔石就已经开始意识到，需要对试图降温的保守派势力稍作让步。
I think even before '89, back to the inflation crisis of eighty eight, is really when Deng and Jia Xiang, who we'll perhaps talk about a bit more later, kind of see political control a little bit to, the conservative faction who were looking to cool cool things down.
我认为南方谈话的有趣之处在于，它为邓小平的生平提供了一个不同的终章。
I think what's interesting about The Southern Tour is that it operates as a different different epilogue for Deng's biography.
我认为中国国内对历史叙述是有意识的，它使邓小平得以被塑造为改革开放的总设计师。
And I think there is a consciousness about the historiography within China, that it allows Deng to be centered as the architect of reform and opening.
这使我们能够方便地谈论他，而不是贾翔，而贾翔才是真正推动许多改革举措的经济大脑。因此，我认为中共叙事中另一个有趣的地方是——这或许也是为什么在习近平时代的中国，这一叙事显得有问题且较少被提及——它需要一些背景信息，而这些背景对他们来说是难以启齿的。
It conveniently allows us to talk about him rather than Jia Xiang, who was really the the sort of economic brain behind a lot of the initiatives through the through the and so I think the other thing that's interesting about the the CCP narrative is, and this is perhaps why it's problematic and less talked about in Xi Jinping's China, is that that it requires a little bit of context, and the context is problematic for them to tell.
他们对南方谈话之前发生的事情使用了非常委婉的措辞。
They they talk very euphemistically about what happened just before the tour.
他们只说改革推进不顺，却明显避而不谈1989年6月发生的事情。
They talk about reforms not being carried out smoothly and obviously don't mention what happened in in June '89.
我认为，正如我所说，它在经济影响上无疑是极其重要的。
It's a kind of, I think, indisputably, as I say, hugely important in terms of its impact on the economy.
我的意思是，在1992年和1993年，经济增长率达到13%，设立了6000个新的开发区，其中许多并未获得政府批准，从而引发了所谓的‘咆哮的九十年代’。
I mean, in 1992 and '93, you have 13% growth, 6,000 new development zones are set up, many of which, the government haven't given approval to and leads this, you know, period of of, you know, some people refer to the roaring nineties.
对。
Right.
但我认为，无论是邓小平本人，还是中共的历史叙事，都明显有意淡化1987至1991年间那些较为动荡的片段。
But I think it is quite a conscious, both on Deng Xiaoping's part, but then in CCP's your historiography, an attempt to sort of smooth over some of the more bumpy bits of the sort of eighty seven to ninety one period.
没错。
That's right.
我的意思是，你提出了一个非常非常好的观点，这确实让你能够讲述这个故事，同时略去一些令人不适的细节，但我们完全不受这种限制。
I mean, and and I think you raise a very, very good point here that it does allow you to sort of tell the story and and leave out some of the the the uncomfortable bits, but we're not at all under such strictures.
所以我们必须谈论这一点。
And so we can't talk about the fact we we we must.
我认为，谈到1992年，就不可能不谈1989年。
I think you can't talk about '92 without talking about '89.
那我们来谈谈1989年是如何影响邓小平的思维、他的战略以及他的紧迫感等等的。
So let's talk about how '89 did influence Deng's thinking, you know, his strategy, his his sense of of urgency and so forth.
经济改革的理念——也就是市场化自由化，以及政治改革，通常我们指的是更具参与性和更审慎的政治制度——在邓小平1989年的思想中是融合在一起的吗？
Were the ideas of economic reforms, you know, that is market liberalization, and political reform by which, you know, we generally mean more participatory and maybe more deliberative politics.
在邓小平1989年的思想中，这些理念是融合在一起的吗？
Were they fused in Deng's thinking in '89?
这场1989年的危机是否迫使它们分离开来，还是说在当时他的思想中，它们早已分离？
Do they have to be separated by the crisis of eighty nine, or did did did they were they already separated at that point in his thinking?
在邓小平的思想中，当时已经有可能只保留其一而舍弃另一者了。
You know, it was possible already in Deng's thinking to have one without the other.
我想，我们已经习惯于将邓小平视为一位市场改革者，至少在89年之后，他是经济自由化的倡导者，但在政治改革方面则不然。
We are, I suppose, already used to thinking of Deng as a market reformer, a champion of of economic liberalization at least after '89, but not so much, obviously, when it came to political reform.
他在89年之前就是这样吗？
Was he already like that pre '89?
我的意思是，邓小平的故事中有一些看似矛盾的时刻，比如在民主运动发生时，他最初似乎支持这些抗议活动，但后来又改变了主意。
I mean, there are moments that seem a bit dissonant in Deng Xiaoping's story where he seems, for example, when democracy war is happening, he initially kind of comes out in favor of, those protests and later, you know, changes his mind.
1986年底发生的抗议活动，在某种程度上也是如此。
The same, to some extent, in 1986, the protest that happened at the tail end of 1986.
我认为，当你看到邓小平谈论政治改革时，他所指的往往并不是我们希望他所谈论的那种政治改革，这样说你能理解吗？
I think you can often see what Deng's when he when he is talking about political reform, he's not necessarily talking about the sort of political reform that we might like him to have been talking about, if that makes sense.
我认为，到88年时，他已经感觉到改革的势头正在减弱。
And I think the reality is that by '88, he felt the sense that the momentum was was slipping away.
整个八十年代，关于经济改革应以多快步伐推进，一直存在争议。
There had been, throughout the eighties, contestation in terms of the pace at which economic reform should proceed.
但在1988年，由于流传着价格管制即将取消的谣言——这些谣言相当有根据——引发了通货膨胀危机，并导致了抢购风潮。
But in 1988, they, there's a an inflation crisis caused by rumors, quite well founded rumors, that price controls were gonna be released, and this causes a spay of panic buying.
从那时起，邓小平会谈到，如果人们拥有物质财富，你就掌握了维持政治控制的主动权。
And really, from that point onwards, Deng will talk about how, you know, if you have, if people have material wealth, you have the initiative effectively in maintaining political control.
我认为这就是邓小平的特点，或许也正是他在某些西方观点中显得难以理解的原因。
And I think that's the thing about Xiaoping and perhaps why he seems, difficult to square in in certain sort of Western views.
他究竟想做什么？
What what does he want to do?
他想维持党的控制。
He wants to maintain the control of the party.
他之所以希望到2000年使GDP翻四番，原因就在这里。
That is his reason for wanting to quadruple GDP by the year 2000.
他所有经济改革举措的根本目的都在于此。
That is the reason for everything he wants to do in terms of economic reform.
而且正如你所说，后八九时期，他对苏联所面临的威胁感到极度担忧。
And and certainly post '89, as you say, he is extremely worried about the threat that, is represented by the forces, acting on the Soviet Union.
所以我认为，八九年后并不存在一种真正的割裂。
So I don't I don't think that there's a kind of separation that happens post '89.
我认为他的观点并没有发生太大的变化。
I think that his view doesn't shift that significantly.
所以你的意思是，在1989年之前，他已经意识到经济改革不仅能够、而且应当与政治改革分开推进；事实上，成功的经济改革将增强政治合法性，使任何政治控制的危险松动变得不再必要。
So you're you're suggesting that pre '89, he already understands that, economic reforms, not not not just can, but ought to be pursued separately from political reforms that, in fact, successfully done economic reforms will buttress political legitimacy and and make, any kind of dangerous slippage in political control unnecessary.
是的。
Yeah.
他提到过一个‘两只手’的比喻。
And he talks about he's got a metaphor of two hands.
一只手抓经济改革，另一只手抓需要开展的政治工作。
With one hand, you grab economic reform, and with the other, you kind of grab the political work you need to do.
我认为，是的，尤其是在南巡期间，很多说法是：如果我们通过提高人民生活水平获得了权威，那么我们就会更容易处理意识形态方面的工作，这么说吧。
And and I think, yeah, he saw but certainly, by the time of the Southern tour, a lot of the rhetoric is that if we have, the authority that's gonna bequested to us by improving people's living standards, we will find it easier to, do the sort of ideological bit, if you like.
嗯。
Mhmm.
你提到过始于1986年、延续到1987年的抗议活动，当时他采取了我们刚才谈到的‘两只手’策略，一只手是左手，另一只手是右手。
You mentioned the the protests that began at the '86 and into '87 and resulted in his he has we talked about his two hands just now, one, his left hand and his right hand.
他的左手是胡耀邦，前中国共产党总书记，因在1987年反资产阶级自由化运动后未能严厉镇压抗议活动而被撤职。
His left hand is Huya Bong, former general secretary of the the Chinese Communist Party, who was demoted after failing to crack down hard enough on those protests in '87 after the anti bourgeois liberalization campaign.
而他的右手，当然就是我们之前提到的万里，他是20世纪80年代许多早期改革的主要设计者。
And then, of course, Charles Liang, who we've also mentioned, his right hand, who was really the architect of a lot of the early reforms in the nineteen eighties.
这两个人在80年代都扮演了极其重要的角色，但他们的政治命运一定让邓小平感到非常担忧。
A very, very important role for both of them through the eighties, but their political fates must have been very worrisome to Deng.
这两位人物都在他的任内被撤职，而他们所遭遇的命运，邓小平自己过去也曾经历过——他曾多次被罢免权力。
Both of these men demoted sort of under his watch and, you know, suffering a fate that he certainly has had some some brush with in the past, having been, you know, removed from power a couple times already.
他们的政治命运如何影响了邓小平的规划，以及中国改革的整体轨迹？
How did their political fates affect his planning, his overall, you know, trajectory of of China's reforms?
胡耀邦很有趣，因为他在1987年初辞职后，逐渐成为那些人的象征，尤其是在1989年去世后，更成为呼吁进一步政治自由化人士的象征。
Well, I mean, Hu Yabang is interesting because he becomes, post, his resignation in in early nineteen eighty seven, a bit of a vector for those people, and certainly, obviously, post, you know, his death in '89, a bit of a vector for those who are calling for greater political liberalization.
贾康谈到胡耀邦时说，他是经济改革步伐最激进的人，这一点没错。
He actually was Jia Jiang talks about Hu Hu Yubang as being the most ambitious in terms of the pace of economic reform, that he was Right.
他才是那个想走得最快的人，而赵紫阳则相对温和，邓小平在某种程度上也对胡耀邦起到了制衡作用。
The guy who wanted to go the fastest, and Zhao Ziyang, you know, is is sort of moderating, and Deng, to some extent, a moderating influence on on him.
我是说，赵紫阳确实如我所说，是这个故事中不可或缺的一部分。
I mean, Zhao Ziyang really is, as I say, integral integral to to the the story.
故事。
Story.
邓小平自己曾说，他并不是受过经济学训练的人。
Deng Deng Xiaoping said himself that he wasn't an economist by training.
他对经济学并没有很好的理解。
He didn't have a good understanding of economics.
在八十年代，他的角色常常是大致勾勒方向、批准大方向，而不是细枝末节。
And through the eighties, his role would often be to sort of rubber stamp, paint in broad strokes rather, what he wanted to see.
而贾庆林才是负责经济政策细节的人。
And Jaz Jiang was the man doing the detail in terms of economic policy.
正如我所说，我认为邓小平在1990年和1991年试图重启改革进程、让经济改革重回他期望的节奏时，遇到了一个问题。
And as I say, I think one of the problems with, he tries Deng Xiaoping in 1990 and 1991 to reinvigorate the reform process, to get economic reform back to the pace he wants it to be at.
正如我所说，1988年，在通货膨胀危机之后，他们放缓了改革步伐，当时重新加强了对中国经济的管控。
And as I say, in '88, they had dialed it down in the aftermath of this inflation crisis, and so lots of control is reimposed on, the Chinese economy at that point.
但在1991年，他前往上海试图重启改革，却未能成功。
But in 1919, 1991, he goes to Shanghai to try and reinvigorate reform, but he's unable to to do so.
直到1992年，他才成功实现了这一目标。
It's only in 1992 when he he manages to successfully achieve that.
正如我所说，在此过程中，他实际上抹去了赵紫阳的遗产，因为事实如此。
And as I say, in in doing so, he he functionally erases Zhao Ziyang's legacy because he Right.
他成为了人们谈论中国经济发展时所提及的那个人。
Becomes the guy that we talk about when we talk about China's economic modernization.
而江泽民在八十年代所做的工作，因此被掩盖了。
And Jaz Yang's, you know, the work that he did in the eighties is occluded by that.
我认为，正如我所说，这正是人们难以谈论邓小平、也难以谈论习近平时代的中国的原因之一：正如你所说，他不幸地见证了两位中共中央总书记的倒台，即胡耀邦，以及1989年的赵紫阳。
And I think that, as I say, is an is a reason why he's hard to talk about Deng Xiaoping, that is, is hard to talk about Xi Jinping's China because, as you say, he has the unfortunate fate of losing, two general secretaries of of the of the party, you know, Hu Yabang, then in '89, Zhao Ziyang, the general secretary.
江泽民于1989年接任，人们开始说，担任总书记似乎没什么好下场，这几乎成了一种说法，
Jiang Zemin taking over in '89, I think, that people are saying, no no good comes to the general secretary, You know, it's kind of almost become, you know,
对。
a Right.
到这个时候，这已经是一个毒杯了。
A poison chalice by this point.
所以到1992年，他由于种种原因，终于重新掌控了局面。
And So by by '92, he's able to, for lots of reasons, best will get into, rest that control back.
是的。
Yeah.
所以这正是我现在想谈的，就是那一年，或者之后大约十八个月的时间。
So that's actually what I wanted to talk about right now is just that that year or the eighteen months or so afterward.
对吧？
Right?
也就是1989年6月4日之后的一年。
So the year after 06/04/1989.
我认为那段时期并没有被很好地理解。
I don't think that's a very well understood period of time.
我很想知道你如何描述当时的情况和局势。
I'm I'm curious how you would describe the situation and the dynamic.
我的意思是，我们通常会认为，一方面有陈云，还有邓力群，他们都与李鹏、杨尚昆等人结盟。
I mean, I guess we are used to thinking about, you know, on the one hand, you have Choi Yun and maybe Dong Li Qin, both of them sort of with in alliance with people like Li Peng and Yang Chang Kun.
嗯。
Mhmm.
另一方面，则是邓小平和他的新任接班人江泽民，而江泽民当时还只是一个新手。
And on the other, you have, you know, Deng and his newly anointed successor, Jiang Zemin, who's still sort of a, you know, a neophyte.
他刚从上海上来。
He's just come up from Shanghai.
是的。
Yeah.
当形势看起来对他们如此不利时，改革派怎么会取得胜利呢？
How does this end in a victory for the reformers when the the cards seem so very stacked against them?
我在关注1992年1月之前这段时期，也就是1989年下半年，以及1990年和1991年。
You know, so I'm I'm looking at this period leading up to January of of of ninety two, so the year in second half of of of eighty nine, and then the years 9091.
那段时间究竟发生了什么？
What's going on then?
嗯，到了1989年底，邓小平正式从中央军事委员会主席这一最后职位上退休。
Well, so in in late eighty nine, Deng officially retires from his last post as chairman of the Central Military Commission.
他退居幕后，正如你所说，江泽民从上海上来了。
And he stepped back, as you say, Jiang Zemin has come up from Shanghai.
他住在中南海的临时住所里，正如你所说，正在摸索着前进。
He's living in kind of temporary accommodation in Zhongnanhai, and as you say, kind of feeling his way.
我认为，在这一阶段，江泽民显然被当时许多人视为一个过渡性人物，并不真正掌握实权。
And I think that's true of him throughout this phase, that Jiang Zemin is obviously seen by, you know, a lot of people at the time as a sort of placeholder, not really holding particular authority.
邓小平在1990年和1991年的冬天两次前往上海。
And Deng Xiaoping goes to Shanghai twice in the winters of 1990 and 1991.
在1991年，他在上海的一家报纸上发表了数篇社论，这些社论让人想起毛泽东在文化大革命初期所使用的策略。
He, in 'ninety one, publishes a number of editorials, in a Shanghai newspaper, which are, you know, very reminiscent of the kind of tactics that Mao used at the beginning of the Cultural Revolution Right.
试图扭转局势。
Trying to pivot.
特别是，我认为南方谈话最重要的意义或许不在于它带来的经济增长率——尽管这些增长率显然对中国经济发展产生了重大影响——而在于它为某些赚钱方式提供了合法性。
And and in particular, you know, I think the important thing about the Southern Tory is is perhaps not so much the the growth rates it produces, although they obviously have a significant impact on China's economic life, but the way that it legitimizes certain forms of making money.
他大量谈论社会主义体制下的资本主义工具。
And he talks a lot about these capitalist tools in socialist hands.
他试图为某些赚钱方式赋予合法性。
And he's trying to give legitimacy to certain approaches to making money.
他在1991年发表的这些文章中努力实现这一点。
And he and he tries to do that in the the these articles that are published in in 1991.
一些评论家指出，那一年是谨慎生存之年，没错。
Some commentators have observed of that year that it's the year of living cautiously, that Right.
似乎没有人愿意明确表态。
That nobody seems to be quite willing to commit.
正如你所说，一些保守派，比如李鹏，仍在谈论大约6%的增长率。
As you say, some of the conservative, faction Lipeng is talking about still sort of 6% growth.
那段时间，这可以说是他们的目标。
That's sort of the the aim at that stage.
讽刺的是，那些如此关注中国计划经济元素的保守派。
I mean, ironically, the the conservative wing who was so preoccupied with the planned elements of the, of the Chinese economy.
实际上，所谓的1988年至1992年初的整顿过程，对国有企业造成了巨大损害，而这些企业本应被他们视为中国社会主义经济的基石。我认为，到1992年初，经济开始复苏——如果你看看1992年12月的报纸报道，人们都在谈论经济已经从这段必要的冷却期中恢复过来。
Actually, what they the rectification process, as it's called, between, you know, '88 and '9 early ninety two, actually does a lot of damage to the state owned enterprises that they, you know, they would hold up as the kind of cornerstones of the Chinese And I think, you know, to to some extent, by early ninety two, the the economy is starting to if you look at kind of the the newspaper coverage from December, early ninety two, People are talking about the economy having recovered, having come out of this period, this necessary period of cooling.
因此，从某种意义上说，当时的经济环境正好为接下来发生的事情做好了准备。
So in a way, it feels like the the economics are right for what happens.
我认为他在1992年取得成功、而在1990和1991年屡屡受挫的另一个原因是，他在广东的经济特区珠海召集了一次军队高层会议。
I I think the other reason that he's successful in '92, where he is he has struggled in 9090 and '91, is that he calls a meeting in Zhuhai, which is one of the special economic zones, in Guangdong of the top brass of the military.
他没有邀请江泽民，而江泽民理论上才是军队的最高领导人。
He doesn't invite Jiang Zemin, who is, you know, theoretically the the top the top man in the military.
而且
And
不过，此时他尚未辞去中央军委主席职务，所以还不能说完全退出。
At this point, he still hasn't given up his CMC chairmanship yet, though, so he's not quite.
他已经这样做了。
He has.
我现在谈的是1992年初的事情。
This is this is early ninety two, now that I'm talking about.
所以当他前往珠海进行南方视察时，召开了这次会议。
So when he goes on his on his southern tour in Zhuhai, he calls this meeting.
杨尚昆和他的同父异母兄弟杨白冰都在场。
Yang Shankun and his half brother Yang Baobing are there.
乔石，他曾被谈论为潜在的替代总书记人选。
Qiao Shi, who who was talked about as a potential alternative general secretary.
他在珠海表示，谁反对改革，就将被赶下台。
And he and he says in Zhuhai, whoever is against reform will be driven out of power.
与此同时，军队发出的大量言论都围绕着人民必须团结一致、支持改革。
And a lot of the rhetoric coming out of the military at the same time is around how the, you know, the people need to get in get in line and support reform.
我认为，除了邓小平的直接政治操作外，背后还隐含着一种威胁。
And I think there is an as well as the sort of, retail politics of Deng Suthentur, there is a kind of implicit threat underlying it.
我们当然不清楚在太高的地方究竟发生了什么。
We don't quite know what happened in, obviously, in Too High.
当时的报道主要来自在香港的记者。
The coverage is mainly through, Hong Kong journalists who were who were reporting it at the time.
我们知道那里确实举行了一次会议，而对杨的隐性威胁是，他必须支持改革，否则将被架空。
We do know that that a meeting happened there and that the implicit threat to Yang was he needs to get behind reform or else effectively.
嗯。
Yeah.
不。
No.
他显然背后有实力支持，才能做到这一点。
He clearly he had some muscle behind him in order to be able to to do that.
而我想要表达的是，权力平衡是如何转向有利于他的，使他在1992年初能够做出这样的表态？
And, that's what I was trying to get at is sort of how had the balance of power shifted in his favor, allowing him in early ninety two to be able to make a statement like that?
我认为另一个重要因素是权力下放——谁在推动经济政策，以及领导层实际上拥有多少控制权。
The other big factor in that, I would say, is the decentralization that's happened in terms of who is driving economic policy and how much control does to to the to the leadership actually have.
比如，李鹏就曾与朱镕基就中央政府应收回多少税收发生过争执，但最终输了这场争论。
I mean, Li Peng, for example, has has tried to already have an argument with Gong Dong about the amount of tax they're returning to the, to the central government and and and lost that argument.
这正是陈云对邓小平所倡导政策的担忧之一：你正在将中央控制权让渡给各省。
So, and this is one of Chen Yun's worries about the policies that Deng is advocating, that it is that you are ceding central control to the provinces.
因此，他在1992年前往这些省份，告诉他们需要走得更快。
And so what he does in '92 is he goes to those provinces and he says, you need to move even faster.
我的意思是，他去了深圳——那里是中国发展最快的地区，并说：你们需要更快地推进。
I mean, he goes to Shenzhen, which where development is happening at the quickest pace anywhere in China, and he says, you need to move you need to move faster.
所以他实际上向各省发出呼吁。
So he kind of appeals to the provinces.
南方视察之后，全国各地的省委书记纷纷给中南海的中央领导写信，表示：请允许我们建立自己的开发区。
And then post the southern tour, all of these, you know, provincial party secretaries around the country are writing to the central leadership in Zhonganhai saying, look, want our own development zones.
我们想设立自己的实验区域。
We wanna set up our own, areas for experimentation.
因此，他充分利用了这些地区对他的支持。
And so he really leverages, his support in those in those areas.
在我们深入探讨视察本身的细节、他的具体行动、沿途各地所象征的意义之前，让我们先更深入地看看这一事件发生的背景。
So before we get to the mechanics of the tour itself and and, you know, what he does and how and sort of what each sort of geography along the way symbolizes, let's look a little bit more at the the context in which this happens.
我想关注一下当时的国际环境，特别是俄罗斯以及前苏联和前华约国家的事件。
And I wanna look at the international environment, especially at events in Russia and the rest of the former Soviet Union and former Warsaw Pact.
到1992年1月，共产主义事业在全球范围内前景黯淡。
By January '92, things are looking very grim for the communist project worldwide.
因此，这些挑战对我来说似乎非常明确，但你的书有趣之处在于，你认为邓小平实际上在这一局面中看到了某种机遇。
So the challenges seem very clear to me, but what's interesting about your book is you argue that Deng actually recognizes in this certain opportunity.
你能详细说明一下吗？在共产主义看似全球退潮之际，邓小平究竟发现了哪些机遇？
Can you break that out and explain a little bit what it was that opportunities are that that Deng spotted amidst the apparent global retreat of communism?
嗯，我认为他恰恰颠覆了这种逻辑。
Well, yeah, I think he sort of flips the logic on on its head.
我认为，随着苏联发生的事情，以及八十年代保守派对改革开放进程、外来思想、资本主义赚钱方式以及可能引发的腐败问题的担忧，
I think with what's going on in the Soviet Union and the concerns that the conservatives have had throughout the eighties about the, reform and opening process, you know, the importation of foreign ideas, capitalist modes of making money, and the potential kind of corruption that that can invite.
到了八十年代末、九十年代初，当苏联正在分崩离析时，这些人便以此为由要求放缓步伐。
By, you know, the the late eighties, early nineties, when, as a Soviet Union, is is is falling apart, those people are using that as a reason to slow things down.
他们说，我们必须谨慎行事。
You know, they're saying, we need to be cautious.
邓小平却持相反观点。
Deng argues the opposite.
他说我们必须更快地推进。
He says that we to do this more quickly.
我们需要让人民看到他们正在变得更富裕，以抵御这种威胁。
We need to show people that they are getting wealthier, in order to stave off the threat.
我认为有趣的是，他的观点是，一方面，陈云和保守派在这个故事中常常被误认为是反派。
And I think that, you know, what's interesting is that he his his version of of that is, on the one hand, I think what Chen Yun and the conservatives are often mischaracterized in this story as kind of the bad guys.
对吧？
Right?
我认为是的。
I think Right.
在这些简化的叙事中。
In these narr in these simplified narratives.
实际上，陈云一直主张的是发展，并以他认为不过于激进的速度使用市场。
And actually, what Chen was always arguing for was was was considered development and the considered use of the market at a at a pace that he didn't think was too ambitious.
没错。
That's right.
人们常常忘记，陈云是八十年代经济改革的倡导者之一。
And people often forget that Chen was one of the advocates of economic reform in in the eighties.
是的。
Yeah.
他们在早期密切合作，我认为，陈云常被描绘成一个守旧的反派，想要破坏邓小平的改革。
And they worked incredibly closely together at the in the early and I think, yeah, Chen Yun can be painted as this kind of, you know, old fashioned bad guy who wants to, you know, spoil Deng's party.
但他但
But he but
邓小平对此有很大影响。
Deng Deng has a lot to do with this.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Yeah, exactly.
我认为，南方谈话在叙事上就是一个例子，展示了他是如何将陈云塑造成这种形象的。
And I think, you know, Southern Tour is a kind of example, narratively, of how he how he manages to to to frame Chen in in that way.
但事实上，如果你看看陈云所主张的内容，它只是更加审慎。
But actually, if you look at the, what what Chen is arguing for, it is just a a more considered.
他经常谈到，过快的增长率所带来的低效问题。
And he talks a lot about, you know, the inefficiencies that come from excessive growth rates.
事实上，如果你看看九十年代发生了什么，这些问题并没有消失。
And actually, if you look at what happens in the nineties, those problems don't go away.
通货膨胀问题依然存在。
The inflation inflation problems are still there.
那些低效问题依然存在。
Those inefficiencies are still there.
但邓小平意识到，关键在于感觉如何。
But Deng sort of recognizes that the key the key is the way it feels.
我认为，当你思考当代美国政治时，这相当有趣。
I think it's quite interesting as you're thinking about kind of contemporary American politics.
我知道目前这方面的言论很多，对吧？
I know there's a lot of rhetoric around this at the moment, right?
比如，你觉得经济感觉怎么样？
Like how does the economy feel for you?
对。
Right.
我认为这就是他所认识到的关键所在，他知道人们的生活正在改善。
I think that's what he recognizes as the, as the key bit that he, he, he knows that people have seen their lives improving.
如果将增长的旋钮调低，限制人们赚钱的机会，那么人们很快就会转向反对政党。
If the dial is turned down on growth and people's opportunities to make money restricted, then it won't take very long, for people to go turn against the party.
而且，你知道，最终看来，这个论点似乎被发生的事情所证实。
And, you know, certainly that seems, you know, in the end, that that argument seems justified by what happens.
非常同意。
Very much so.
我的意思是，我认为你的书非常出色地捕捉到了这些难以言喻的方面，我们稍后会再讨论另一个这样的方面。
I mean, it's these intangibles, I think, that your book is very, very good at getting at, and we'll talk about another one of them in just in just a bit.
但只是让我觉得，嗯，我看着这种情况，这正是我们在九十年代经常讨论的问题。
But it just strikes me that, you know, I I look at that situation, and, you know, this is something we were all talking about a lot during the nineteen nineties.
中国是怎么挺过来的？
How did China survive this?
当时很多学者得出的智慧是，苏联有戈尔巴乔夫的‘公开性’和‘重建’。
And this was sort of the the wisdom that that came out of a lot of, you know, the academics was that there was, you know, Glasnost, there's Perestroika.
而在俄罗斯和其他东欧国家，他们搞反了顺序。
And and in in Russia and other Eastern European countries, they did them in the wrong order.
对。
Yeah.
应该先搞‘重建’，然后再搞‘公开性’。
It should have been Perestroika first and then Perestroika.
对。
Yeah.
先搞了太多该死的‘公开性’，结果‘重建’就失效了。
A little too much damn Glasnost first, and then Perestroika doesn't work.
嗯。
Mhmm.
你必须改革经济。
You have to reform the economy.
你得先让一些人真正赚到钱，然后才能……我想，当时的智慧在于邓小平做对了顺序，他先进行了经济改革。
You have to actually have people, you know, making money before you can then so I guess the the wisdom was that that Deng put things in the right order, that he did economic reform first.
是的。
Yeah.
然后就不必进行政治自由化了。
And then didn't didn't have to do the political liberalization bit.
对吧？
Right?
对，就是这样。
That that that Right.
对。
Right.
你知道，1992年达成的协议就是：我们会推进经济自由化，但会在政治上保持严格控制。
You know, that that was the kind of deal that was struck in '92 was, look, we'll we'll we'll do the economic liberalization, but we'll we'll keep very strict control on on politics.
我真的很喜欢你书中的一个方面，就是你深入展现了邓小平的个人观察，尤其是在深圳。
One of the things I really liked about your book was the way that you get into Deng's sort of personal observations, especially in Shenzhen.
这不仅仅是在92年之后，早在他早年访问深圳时就已经如此。
And this isn't just in the in the you know, this is before '92 as well in his earlier trips there.
你认为这些第一手经历在他后续的政策决策中起到了多么关键的作用？
How pivotal do you think these firsthand experiences were in in shaping his subsequent policy decisions?
我认为，如今在中国，视察活动已经变得有些——也许完全是形式主义了。
I think really important inspection tours have become somewhat, but maybe entirely performative in modern China.
我今天看到一张习近平眺望远方的漂亮照片。
There was a nice photo of Xi Jinping looking out to see today, I saw him.
在观察事物。
Looking at things.
观察事物，没错。
Looking at things, yeah.
而且你知道，习近平不会去寻找他本来就不知道的东西。
And and, you know, nobody Xi Jinping doesn't go to find stuff stuff out that he doesn't already know.
对吧？
Right?
这并不具有动态性。
That's not that's not dynamic.
但显然，南巡这一理念源于帝国时期巡视疆土、确保防洪设施正常运作等传统观念。
But, obviously, the the Nanxian, the idea is founded in the kind of imperial notion of going and inspecting your your kingdom and making sure that the flood defenses are working and all of that sort of stuff.
邓小平在1992年南巡之前，曾两次前往广东。
And Deng makes two significant journeys to Guangdong before his '92 Southern tour.
第一次是在1977年，他得知了大量民众逃往香港的严重问题。
One in 1977, where he is told about the huge problem of people fleeing across the border into Hong Kong.
他意识到，他说，我们的政策一定出了问题，才会导致这种情况。
And he's and he realizes, he says that the pot you know, there's something wrong with the with our policy to be causing this.
1984年，他进行了通常被称为第一次南巡的行程。
And, in 1984, he goes on what is generally called his first Southern tour.
而那正是改革整体以及经济特区这一具体举措面临威胁的时刻，当时没有人完全确信这一实验能够成功。
And and that's a moment really where the where reform in general and the Special Economic Zone specifically are under threat, that no one is completely convinced that this experiment is working.
实际上，他亲自去了一趟，基本上说，现在他亲眼看到了，明白了，于是回去后，在1984年，中国开放了更多沿海城市，这真正开启了第二阶段的改革开放，基于他在深圳所看到的切实可能性。
And actually he goes and basically, you know, says that now he's seen it, he understands, and he becomes, you know, he goes back and in 1984, they will open, more coastal cities around China and, and really that initiates the second phase of reform and opening based on the possibilities that he's seen evident in Shenzhen.
他参观了人们拥有电视机、洗衣机，以及那些原始的、 presumably 是深圳神话中最初渔村的两层豪华别墅。
He visits houses where people have televisions and, washing machines and these kind of lavish new two story villas in the original, what is presumably the original fish fishing village of of of mythology in Shenzhen.
这让他确信，一方面需要加快步伐，另一方面，深圳及其政策代表了一种可以在中国各地推广的模式。
And, you know, this convinces him that they need to, a, ramp the pace up, and b, that that Shenzhen and the policies there represent a model that can be emulated, across China.
对。
Right.
乔纳森，你书中核心的思想是战略信号传递。
Jonathan, at the heart of your book is this idea of strategic signaling.
我认为，理解中国人如何进行战略信号传递，是当今所谓‘中国观察家’的家常便饭。
And I think understanding how Chinese signal strategically is the kind of bread and butter for the so called China watchers of today.
所以，为了明确一点，当邓小平进行这次南方视察时，他究竟想传递什么信号？谁应该是接收这个信号的人？
So just to be clear, when Deng undertook this southern tour, what precisely did he intend to signal, and and who was supposed to be picking up on the signal?
他们收到信号后，又该如何行动？
How are they supposed to then act on on receiving the signal?
是的。
Yeah.
所以，我的意思是，南方视察常常被描绘成突如其来的事情，邓小平突然就去了。
So I I mean, the southern tour is often presented as coming out of nowhere that Deng goes on.
他假装是去度假。
He pretends he's going on a family holiday.
对吧？
Right?
然后突然他就到了深圳，所有人都疯了。
And then suddenly he's in Shenzhen and everyone is, you know, going crazy.
显然，事情并不是这样运作的。
And obviously, that's not how these things work.
我们知道，早在前一年的12月，人们就已经在修理工厂里有问题的走廊，以便让他觉得舒适。
And and we know that he that people were, even in December of the year before, fixing dodgy corridors in factories to make them, you know, amenable for him.
人们也在积极做各种修整工作，以确保这次行程顺利进行。
And people were going and doing the fixing that needed doing, to make the journey happen.
所以人们都知道他要来。
So people knew he was coming.
因此，我们有理由相信，特别是江泽民这样的政治领导人，也清楚这件事即将发生。
And so we have you know, there's there's no reason to believe that the political leadership this was aimed at, particularly Jiang Zemin, didn't know that it was it was about to happen.
当他出发后，第一站是武汉，只停留了大约半小时，他只是在站台上与省领导们走来走去。
When he gets to so he his first stop when he sets out is is Wuhan, and where he only stays for about half an hour, he he just walks up and down the platform, with the provincial leaders there.
但有趣的是，阅读他在武汉站台上的讲话，因为这几乎是直白到极点的表达。
But in a way, it's interesting reading what he said on the platform of Wuhan because it's almost the the most direct you could be.
他基本上说，无论是右派还是左派都可能埋葬社会主义，但我们需要警惕的是左派。
He he basically says, look, the the right or the left can bury socialism, but the left is what we need to guard against.
你知道，在这个故事里，我们谈论的就是保守派。
You know, that's the and and in and in this story, that's the that's the conservative faction that we're talking about.
他还抱怨官僚主义太多、讲话太长，大致是在抱怨，说空话太多、实际行动太少。
And and he complains about too much bureaucracy and speeches that are too long, sort of moaning about the, you know, the the kind of the there's lots of speaking and not enough action effectively.
这个信息几乎立即传回了北京。
And that message is almost immediately relayed back to Beijing.
所以邓的火车开走后，省领导们聚集在站台上的一个小房间里，这个情况被迅速上报。
So the the provincial leaders huddle in a little room on the platform after Deng's train has pulled out and that's relayed back.
几乎立刻，江泽民和李鹏对此作出了回应。
And almost immediately, Jiang and and Li Peng respond to to that.
因此我们知道，这个信息的接收是非常及时的。
And and so we know that there was an immediacy to the reception of the message.
真正有趣的是，这次南巡在国内几乎没有任何报道。
What's really interesting is that there was was almost, well, there was no domestic coverage of the tour at all.
是的，没错。
That's that's yeah.
这让我感到惊讶，因为我当时就在现场。
That strikes me because I was actually there.
我全程经历了1992年，直到1992年下半年，我才开始明白年初究竟发生了什么。
I was there for the whole '92, and it was only toward the '92 that I started to understand what had happened at the beginning of the year.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，我想我们其实早就知道，当时几乎没有报道，或者根本没有任何报道，而后续的报道则是慢慢才出现的。
I mean How how I mean, so I think we we we already knew that, you know, there wasn't much which coverage or any coverage, whilst it was happening and that the coverage, you know, drip for for that later.
真正有趣的是，当你回溯那个时期官方媒体的档案时，他们会做一些事情，比如提到杨尚昆在深圳植物园种了一棵树。
What's really interesting is that when you go back through the archives of state media during that time, they will do things like they'll mention, that Yang Shangkun was in Shenzhen planting a tree in the botanical gardens.
你知道，他们会写一篇关于这件事的文章。
You know, they'll write an article about that.
但他们不会提及他当时和谁在一起。
But they won't mention the fact that that, you know, who was he with when he did it?
那就是邓小平。
Well, Deng Xiaoping.
你知道，那篇文章里根本没提到邓小平。
Know, Deng Xiaoping is not mentioned in in that article at all.
所以他在二月下旬回来后，《人民日报》上开始刊登一些文章，逐步透露出这次南巡的部分言论，却完全没提南巡本身。
So he comes back in, in late February, and there's an article in the People's Daily which starts to drip feed some of the rhetoric of the tour without mentioning the tour itself.
江泽民在三月初，也就是3月9日，向政治局汇报了邓小平所说的内容。
Jiang outlines to the Politburo in early March, by the March 9, what's what Dunk has been saying.
直到3月31日，才有了全国范围的报道。
It's not until the March 31, that, there is national coverage of it.
当晚，电视台播放了一部纪录片。
There's a documentary that runs on TV that evening.
随后，《人民日报》转载了上周《上海日报》刊登的一篇文章。
And then the People's Daily reprint an article that had been printed the week before in the Shanghai Daily.
但他是在1月17日离开的。
But that's I mean, he he leaves on the January 17.
而正如我所说，直到3月31日，这件事才在全国范围内公布。
And it's not till, as I say, the March 31 this is publicized nationally.
所以，这并不是他像文化大革命式的运动那样，高调公开地推动改革与开放。
So it's not a matter of him sort of reviving reform and opening, loudly and publicly as sort of a a cultural revolution style campaign.
他并没有动员基层群众来支持这一行动。
It's not, you know, mobilizing the grassroots for this.
他的受众仍然是在北京的那些人。
Who is he his audience is still back in Beijing.
这是精英阶层。
It's elites.
他所针对的甚至不是地方官员。
It's not even so much local officials that he's talking to then.
没错。
No.
我认为，他在各地巡视时，尤其是在新疆和上海所展现出的广泛民众支持，对领导层来说极具说服力。
I think the grand swell of of of popular support that is evident as he goes around, particularly in Xinjiang and and then Shanghai, is probably pretty persuasive to the leadership.
当然，在广东，收听香港的电视和广播节目非常容易。
And and, of course, in Guangdong, it was quite easy to receive Hong Kong, you know, TV and and radio.
所以那里的人们对这些事情了解得更多一些，也更广泛一些。
So they there was you know, it was known about a little bit more widely, a little bit more widely down there.
但没错，他是在传递信号——关键在于，1992年10月将召开党的十四大，届时将为中国的未来勾勒新的蓝图。
But, yeah, he's he's signaling I mean, what is key is that '92 is the year October of that year is gonna be the fourteenth party congress, where, you know, the the next chapter is gonna be written in terms of, you know, outlining where China is going.
因此，他现在必须完成这件事，因为他需要改变局面，争取江泽民站在他这一边。
So it's key that he gets this done now, because he needs to change, he needs to pull Jiang onto his side.
正如我所说，他通过一种潜在的最后通牒式的呼吁，同时也通过一种逐渐意识到的现实——各省在拥有分权控制权后，正强烈主张获得更多追求经济增长的自由。
And he does, as I say, through both an appeal to potentially a kind of ultimatum, but also through a kind of dawning realization that the provinces, having decentralized control, are advocating very strongly for greater freedom to pursue economic growth.
某种程度上，这对江泽民来说是个容易说服的论点。
In a way, it's an easy sell for Jiang, I think.
不过，这样做也存在一些风险。
There is some risk in doing this, though.
我的意思是，一旦人们知道邓小平南巡并表明支持深化经济改革，首都会不会发生什么意外？
I mean, once it becomes known that Deng is traveling to the South signaling his support for deepening economic reform, isn't it possible that something might happen back in the capital?
我的意思是，这正是1989年查尔斯·杨遭遇的情况。
I mean, that's what happened to Charles Young after all in '89.
他去了朝鲜旅行，本想
He goes on a trip to North Korea and wants The
最糟糕的时机
worst the worst time
在最糟糕的时机出行。
trip in The worst possible time.
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嗯。
Yeah.
嗯。
Yeah.
我的意思是，他该如何应对首都的政治算计呢？
I mean, I how does he sort of defend himself against, you know, political machinations in the capital?
他身边的人在当前议题上与他持完全对立的立场，而他却决定离开首都一个半月。
He's got people who are taking a diametrically opposite position from him on the issue of the day, and he decides to leave the capital for a month and a half.
那是什么
What's the
嗯。
Yeah.
我的意思是，正如我们提到的，他仍然在军队中拥有很大权力，能够引导军队领导层。
I mean, I think, as as we've mentioned, he still holds a lot of power within the the military, in in in terms of guiding the military leadership.
而且我认为他知道可以依靠这种权威来支持自己。
And I think he knows he can rely on that authority to support him.
我觉得
I think
毕竟最近已经经受过考验了。
It's been recently tested after all.
没错，正是如此。
Well, exactly.
而且我认为，他之所以有信心进行这次出行，是因为其他人也实在提不出什么好主意。
And I I think that the other reason that he feels confident in undertaking this journey is that there no one else has really any good ideas.
你知道的，他们已经尝试过这种整顿了。
You know, they've kind of tried this rectification.
就像我说的，有点像1988年那样，局势被压制了，之后经济状况并不理想。
It's, you know, as I said, sort of '88 where things are dialed down, and things haven't been going brilliantly, economically, subsequently.
他们似乎并没有什么新思路——西方记者经常问，中国未来的经济将何去何从？
And they don't seem to be you know, a lot of journalists Western journalists talk about the time, you know, where are the where are the new ideas in terms of what what is gonna happen with China's economy?
中国国内的报道则称，经济无论如何已经开始复苏，经济数据也看起来不错。
The reporting within China is that the economy is is starting to grow again anyway, and that the economic, numbers look favorable.
所以我说，对江来说，这大概很容易说服。
So as I said, think for Jiang, it's it's probably a pretty easy sell.
是的。
Yeah.
陈云也在变老，而且越来越像邓小平一样，政治影响力日益减弱。
And Chen Yun is is is getting older as well and and increasingly, like Deng, increasingly less of a kind of political force.
对。
Right.
所以我认为，现在的环境非常适合这样做。
So I think the kind of context is right for this.
而且杨，你知道，他想维护自己的权威。
And Yang, you know, he wants to preserve his authority.
他能看清风向。
He can he can see the way the wind is blowing.
我认为他其实会选择更容易的决定。
I think he goes with the easy decision, really.
第九章很有趣。
In chapter nine, it's interesting.
你谈到中国传统元素，尤其是猴年的象征意义，如何被利用其中。
You talk about how elements of traditional Chinese culture, especially, you know, the associations of the year of the monkey, play into all of this and how this was leveraged.
我们都知道有些年份被认为是吉祥的，适合生孩子。
Now we all know there are certain auspicious years, years that are regarded as as, you know, lucky to have children.
比如，龙年通常会看到出生率略有上升。
Like, you know, the year of the dragon, you usually see kind of a little bit of a birth bump.
我之所以对猴年的相关说法很了解，是因为我父亲、我弟弟和我女儿都是属猴的。
I I happen to know a lot about what's associated with the monkey because my father, let's see, my younger brother, and my daughter are all monkeys.
所以我家直系亲属中，我妻子和儿子都属狗，而狗通常被认为与马相处得很好。
So people in my immediate family and, you know, my wife and my son are both dogs, which are, you know, known to get along well with horses.
我就是属马的。
That's me.
是的。
Yeah.
那么，关于猴子都有些什么说法呢？
So what is said about monkeys?
有什么证据表明，中国生肖确实影响了邓小平及其团队对此事的思考？
What is the evidence that that that also, the Chinese horoscope really entered into, Deng and his team's thinking on this?
我不确定是否有大量证据表明他们有意识地利用了这一点。
I I don't know that there's loads of evidence that they were kind of consciously, utilizing this.
我认为，你知道，他
I think, you know, he
但这一点是存在的。
Well, it's in there.
对吧？
Right?
我的意思是，他确实提到了这些。
I mean, he he makes references.
你书中引用了一些演讲内容，确实涉及了这一点。
You you you have some quotes in there of speeches that that that do play into this.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，他在春节时身处上海，而那一年是羊年，据说这是不宜生育的年份。
I mean, he's in Shanghai for Spring Festival, and, it has been the year of the sheep, which is apparently an inauspicious year to have children.
因此，有一种潜在的强烈生育愿望。
So there's this kind of idea, there's a kind of pent up desire for procreation.
我认为，是的，他利用了这一点，因为只有在新年之际向上海人民致以问候时，他才能获得更多的媒体报道。
And I think, yeah, he leverages the kind of, you know, that that is the one point at which he gets a little bit more news coverage because he's able to do some sort of New Year's greetings to the people of Shanghai.
但我不知道这是否是一种有意识的举动。
But I don't know that it was, I don't know that it was a kind of conscious thing.
我认为他只是幸运地赶上了那一年，而且那一年之后似乎出现了一丝乐观情绪。
I think he was, I think he was fortunate that that was the year that was coming, and there there seemed to be a bit of optimism on the other side of it.
但你知道，你得把这个和第十一章中关于‘春天的故事’的另一种讨论结合起来，那种叙事方式。
But, you know, you couple this with another discussion about this in in chapter 11, the story of spring, that that kind of narrative.
我的意思是，这已经成为定义中国政治文化的一种词汇，显然就是所谓的‘王朝复兴’理念。
I mean, it's become, you know, sort of part of the vocabulary that defines the PRC's, you know, political culture, this idea of of, obviously, of, you know, dynastic restoration.
这都老黄历了。
That's that's old and everything.
但你看，习近平的言论中也提到很多复兴的内容，嗯。
But you look at even, you know, Xi Jinping's rhetoric about you know, there's a lot of renewal Mhmm.
嗯。
Mhmm.
重生的理念，还有春天。
You know, rebirth ideas, and and and spring.
我觉得选在中国新年期间谈论新绿芽之类的话题，时机把握得非常好。
I think it it it figures in well timing this for the Chinese New Year, talking about new green shoots and all that stuff.
所以。
So
嗯。
Yeah.
他从1988年起就养成了春节去上海的习惯。
And he'd been I mean, he'd he'd got into this habit of going to Shanghai for Spring Festival since '88.
他每年都在同一时间去那里。
He'd been there every year at the same time.
对。
Right.
所以，他会带着家人一起去，这已经成为他日常生活的一部分。
So he had you know, and he would go with his family, and he'd sort of it had become part of his part of his his routine.
但我觉得，关于‘春天’这个故事挺有意思的，它在1984年原版以及1992年都曾被提及，这首在九十年代广为流传的民谣，讲述了邓小平南巡的故事。
But, yeah, mean, I always think it's kind of interesting, the story of Spring, which which references in its original version '84 as well as 1992, this kind of ballad that became famous in the nineties, telling the story of Dung's southern tours.
我的意思是，我知道南方更暖和，但一月十七日对我来说离春天还远得很，而且我总觉得有点儿……
I mean, to me, I know it's warmer in the South, but, you know, January January 17 is still not quite spring to my mind, and I kind of there's a little bit of
事实上，那时候没有室内供暖，所以非常难受。
In fact, they didn't have, you know, indoor heating, and so it was miserable.
没错。
I mean, I Exactly.
是啊。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
上海的朋友住在那种没有暖气的地方，都冻伤了。
Friends in Shanghai got frostbite living in so
嗯，没错。
Well, yeah.
我的意思是，我住在上海的时候，知道上海一月份没有集中供暖的话，会非常冷。
Mean, I lived in Shanghai, and, you know, the the win the Janurys of Shanghai could without central heating could be pretty chilly, you know.
所以我觉得这个叙述有点被美化了。
And so I think there is a little bit of massaging of the narrative.
我的意思是，一月十七日那天，深圳肯定比北京暖和、绿意更浓。
I mean, it would have been it would have it was it definitely was warmer and greener in Shenzhen than it was in Beijing on the seventeenth of of Jan.
所有这些。
All that.
深圳速度这个概念，成为了中国快速发展的一个典型象征。
The concept of of Shenzhen speed becomes really emblematic of of, you know, rapid development in in China.
这似乎影响了中国更广泛的城市发展政策，并且在邓小平南方谈话之后的几年里，这成为他巡回讲话中的核心内容。
This, you know, seems to have have influenced broader urban development policies in China, and it was something that was really central to to Deng's messaging as he traveled after, especially, you know, in the years after the southern tour.
你能谈谈‘深圳速度’这一理念是如何传播开来的吗？
Can you talk about the the spread of this idea of Shenzhen speed?
是的。
Yeah.
‘深圳速度’源于1984年在深圳建成的国际贸易中心。
So Shenzhen speed was something that came from the building of the International Trade Center, which is completed in 1984 in Shenzhen.
邓小平在1984年初访问时亲眼目睹了它的建设过程，登上附近的一栋楼，俯瞰整个城市。
And Deng goes to see it being built when he visits in early nineteen eighty four, goes up to an adjacent building and sort of looks out across the city.
建成后，它将成为中国最高的建筑。
And when it's built, it will be the tallest building in China.
关于它的传说是一个楼层每三天就能建好一层。
And the mythology of it was that it was a floor, a new floor every three days, was the story.
不过，写过一本关于深圳书籍的 Jian Du 提到，这种说法其实是后来才出现的。
Although actually, Jiandu, who wrote a book about Shenzhen, talks about the fact that that was only later on.
最初，他们在采购材料和工具方面遇到了真正的问题，速度要慢得多。
Initially, they had real problems with sourcing, I think, like, materials and tools, and it was much, much slower than that.
但显然，城市的垂直发展态势——邓小平1992年重返时也提到过——这种转变及其作为发展标志的宣传话语。
But yet, obviously, the kind of verticality of the city and and Deng talks about this when he goes back in '92, the transformation that has happened and the rhetoric around that as a kind of mark of development.
即使在1984年，他们就已经在谈论正在建设的众多高层建筑了。
Even in '84, they're talking about how many tall buildings they are in the process of of building.
我认为深圳的有趣之处在于，它的模式与邓小平访问的另一个经济特区珠海形成了对比，如果听众去过或了解过珠海，就会知道那是完全不同的模式。
I think what's interesting with Shenzhen is that model is contrasted by the other special economic zone he goes to in Zhuhai, which if listeners have been or know anything about it, a very different sort of, model.
实际上，当经济特区最初被提出时，人们曾设想它们将成为农产品出口中心，出口广东地区种植的一些产品，同时也作为旅游中心，成为人们度假的目的地。
And actually when the special economic zones were first mooted, they were talked about as potential centers for agricultural export, for sort of exporting some of the things that were grown in Guangdong, but also as tourist centers, that they were gonna be cities that people would go on on holiday to.
珠海更贴近这一模式，因为它有岛屿、海滩等地貌，整体是低密度开发。
And Zhuhai fits that model a little bit more neatly because it has, you know, it's kind of islets and and beaches and things, and it's much more of a low rise kind of development.
但正如你所说，深圳及其所代表的城市发展模式随后被复制，尤其是浦东，这或许成为邓小平南方谈话最持久的遗产之一。
But as you say, Shenzhen and and the model it represents in terms of urban development is then replicated, particularly, I suppose, Pudong, which becomes probably one of the lasting legacies of Deng's southern tour.
邓小平在1990年和1991年访问时，就一直在推动浦东更快发展。
Deng has been trying to get Pudong developing more quickly when he's visited in 1990, '91.
直到1992年之后，这种发展才真正加速，并最终形成了我们今天所熟知的天际线。
And it's only post '92 that this really takes off and obviously turns into the skyline that that we know today.
我认为，在当代中国，令人着迷的是，当我住在那里的时候，那种高楼密集建设的模式似乎已经达到了顶峰。
I think what's fascinating in in contemporary China is, of course, that that model having, you know, been when I was living there, it really was that was the kind of, I think, the peak of those sorts of buildings going up.
后来，习近平对一些奇特的建筑风格感到不满，这似乎让建设速度稍微放缓了一些。
And then there was Xi Jinping got a bit upset about the kind of weird architecture thing, and that seemed to slow down a little bit.
而近年来，习近平倡导了一种新的城市发展模式，以北京以南的雄安新区为代表，旨在摆脱那种高密度、令人印象深刻的摩天大楼式城市建造模式。
And then, you know, in more recent years, Xi has advocated for this new model of, of urban development, which is represented by the new model city of Xiangan, to the South of Beijing, which is intended to move away from that kind of high density, yeah, kind of impressive skyline model of building a city.
是的。
Yeah.
雄安是我和安德鲁·斯托克霍尔茨做过一期节目的城市，如果你对这个发展感兴趣，不妨去看看那期节目。
Xiangan is a city that I've actually done a show on with Andrew Stokeholz, so if you're interested in that development, please check that show out.
他目前正在城市规划和中国意识形态领域做一些非常有趣的研究。
He he has some doing some really, really interesting work right now on on urban development and Chinese ideology.
在这段过程中，你对邓小平有什么新的认识吗？
What do you feel like you learned about Deng Xiaoping in the course of this that you didn't previously know about him?
他显然是你故事中的核心人物。
He's really obviously the central character in your story.
是的。
Yeah.
这是个非常好的问题。
It's a really good question.
我认为，写关于邓小平的书时，其中一个有趣之处在于，他这个人总是能引发人们强烈的反应。
I think for me, one of the points of interest in writing about Dung was that he's somebody who evokes strong reactions from people, I think.
我发现，如果我在推特上发布任何关于这本书或他的内容，人们要么说他太棒了，要么说他太糟糕了。
And I I find this when if I if I post anything on Twitter about the book or about him, the people either say one of two things, which is that he's amazing or he's terrible.
你知道，在社交媒体的视角下，你确实看不到其他声音。
You know, there's there's there's kind of you you don't have certainly, under through the lens of social media.
在这里，微妙的立场是被禁止的。
Where nuance is forbidden.
没错。
Exactly.
在那里，细微差别是被禁止的。
Where nuance is forbidden.
我觉得我真的很想进一步探索一下。
And I think I was really interested to explore a little bit more.
我一直对中国的精英政治人物的心理状态很感兴趣，想知道他们作为普通人是什么样子。
I've always been quite interested in the psychology of those people in elite politics in China, in terms of what they were like as as people.
我在书中确实尝试加入了一些相关内容，比如邓小平的日常作息和他的家庭生活。
And I did try in the book to include a little bit of of that in terms of Deng's daily routine and his, his life with his family.
嘿。
Hey.
顺便问一下，你那些资料是从哪儿弄来的？
Where did you get that stuff, by the way?
我很好奇，因为你知道，内容非常详细。
I'm I'm I was really curious because, you know, it's it's very detailed.
所以，我的资料来源有很多，他女儿写过两本关于他的书，当然，这些书极其片面。
So, I mean, from different places, there's there's two books written by his daughter about him, which obviously are geographical, in the extreme.
是的。
Yeah.
还有一些关于他日常生活的零星片段，来自他孩子们的采访。
There there are, bits and pieces around from interviews with his children as well about his daily life.
所以你可以把这些碎片拼凑起来。
So you can piece things together.
我曾经去过那所房子，我想它现在仍然由家族拥有，位于紫禁城北边一条小胡同里。
I mean, I'd been to the house, which is still, I think, owned by the by the family, which is on a little hutong just north of the Forbidden City.
所以我对那个地方有了一些感觉，可以据此来描写。
So I kinda had a sense of of the of the place to write about it.
我会观看
And I would watch
孩子们真的在他的办公室地板上玩耍吗？
Were were the kids really playing on the floor in his office?
我的意思是，他的
I mean, his, you know
我的意思是，当然，有那些场景的照片。
Well, I mean, certainly, the the there's there's photos of that happening.
我的意思是，他们你知道，这正是围绕此事的宣传说法。
I mean, they you know, and that's the that's the rhetoric around it.
我认为，散步确实很重要。
I think certainly the the walking was pretty important.
所以邓小平有每天散步的习惯。
So Dung has this kind of recene of walking every day.
我认为，这就像游泳之于毛泽东一样，散步就是邓小平的日常。
And I think that was, you know, as swimming was for Mao, you know, so he's walking for Dung.
所以，我非常希望为他的故事增添一些关于他个人的细节。
So, yeah, I was really keen to kind of color the narrative with some detail about him as a as a person.
你知道，到那时他已经年迈了，你是怎么看待他如何承受这段旅程的种种要求的。
And, you know, he's really you know, he's he's old by this point, you know, and how he kind of bore up to the demands of the journey.
要知道，1992年的时候可没有高铁。
This was not you know, there was no high speed rail back in 1992.
即使乘坐私人列车，前往深圳也是一段艰难的旅程。
It was a slog getting down to Shenzhen, even on your private train.
他带着一大群家人同行。
And he has an enormous posse of family traveling with him.
我的意思是，这部分并不是虚构的。
I mean, that part is not made up.
他确实是在和家人一起旅行。
He he really is traveling with his family.
他确实是这样。
He really is.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为这让他能够——也许是我太 cynical 了——向中国公众展现自己。
And I think that enables him to, I mean, you know, maybe it's the cynic in me here, that the that that it enables him to present himself back to the Chinese public.
因为显然，这些照片最终被刊登了出来，照片中他在新疆的中华民俗村，那里有中国各地风景的微缩模型，身边还带着孙子孙女。
Because, obviously, these photos are eventually published of him, in the splendid China Theme Park in Xianjiang, which is where they have all the sort of miniature versions of, China's, scenic spots, with the grandchildren.
所有孩子，除了他的儿子邓泽方，都和他一起出行，还有很多孙辈。
And all all the kids apart from, Deng Zhe Fang, his son Go with him and loads of grandkids as well.
所以，是的，这非常符合他作为‘邓叔叔’的形象。
So, yeah, it's very much in this kind of vein of him as a kind of uncle Deng.
我想，关于我想进一步了解的是，他的心理动机是什么，从这个角度更深入地理解他，当然，作为西方研究者，可用的资源非常有限。
And yeah, so I think, you know, in terms of, of what I wanted to know a little bit more about was how, how, how, what his psychological motivation was and, and understand him a little bit more from that perspective within the bounds of obviously the limited resources you have to do that as a Western researcher.
但我认为，我不确定这是否让我惊讶，或者我一直都知道，但人们在看待邓小平时必须记住的一点是，正如我之前所说，他维持党权力和控制的欲望才是驱动他的根本原因。
But I think I I don't know that this is something that surprised me or always knew, but I think the thing that people have to keep in mind with Dung is, as I've already said, his desire to maintain the power and control of the party was the thing that motivated him.
他希望，你知道，他亲历过文化大革命的混乱。
And he wanted, you know, he'd lived through the chaos of the Cultural Revolution.
他切身体会过那种感觉，你知道，曾被下放到北京之外的地方。
He knew what that felt like, you know, viscerally having been, you know, sent down from Beijing.
是的，我认为这有助于我们更好地理解他性格中一些更复杂的方面。
And yeah, I think that that makes it easier to to kind of square some of the more complex aspects of his personality, I guess.
如果你推荐一本书，我知道市面上有不少冗长肤浅的传记，但我真正熟悉的只有傅高义的著作。
If there's a book that you would recommend, you know, of of not too many big dumb bios out there, but, you know, I I'm only familiar really with Ezra Vogels.
但除了这个，你还认为有哪几本吗？
But are there any besides that that you you think?
有本叫《利文斯顿的裤子》
There's the Pants of Levine
哦，对。
Oh, right.
对。
Right.
对。
Right.
大量引用了苏联方面的资料。
Calls a lot on kind of Soviet, sources.
正如我所说，还有邓榕，他的女儿写了这两本书。
And there as I say, there is the the Dung Rong, so his daughter writes these two books.
据说她原本打算写一本关于1984年后改革开放时期的书，但至今尚未问世。
Apparently, she was going to write one about the post '84 kind of reform and opening period, but that is yet to manifest itself.
而且最近一部高预算的邓小平电视剧系列，几年前在中国播出，也只讲到1984年，我认为这很有说明性。
And actually, most recent, the very high budget Deng Xiaoping TV drama series, which was broadcast in in China a few years ago, that only goes up to 1984 as well, which I think is telling.
是的。
Yeah.
这其实相当有趣。
Which is actually, you know, actually quite interesting.
它有二十多集。
It's it's like 20 odd parts.
在YouTube上可以看。
It's on, YouTube.
至于我认为能提供良好洞察力的书籍，我觉得有不少是关于后毛时代的。
In terms of books that I think give give, you know, good insight, I think there's quite a few that deal with the post Mario.
我非常喜欢理查德·鲍姆的《埋葬毛泽东》。
I really like Richard Baum's Burying Mao.
我觉得这本书非常好。
I think that's very good.
我一直以来的挑战是，写一本能够让读者理解经济复杂性，却又不会被经济学细节淹没的书。
The challenge I always felt was, was trying to write a book that, that allows you to understand the economic complexity without drowning you in economics.
因此，我的目标是尝试写出一种易于阅读的方式，来呈现这个实际上非常复杂的故事。
So that my intention was to try and write something that was a readable way into what is really quite a complex story.
在这方面，你确实完全成功了。
Well, in that regard, you've absolutely succeeded.
你这么说真是太客气了。
That's very kind of me.
所以，约翰，我从1996年到2016年住在北京，像我说的那样，八十年代末和九十年代初也经常在中国。
So I I John, I lived in Beijing from '96 to 2016 and was often in China, like I said, during the late eighties and early nineties.
事实上，1992年那个夏天我一直在那里。
In fact, in '92, that whole summer I was there.
因此，在很大程度上，我是南方谈话及其所建立的政治经济体系的产物。
So to a great extent, I am a product of the southern tour and the political economy that it established.
当然，那些年在中国生活有许多美好的方面，但也存在一些严重的问题，这些问题至少部分要归因于邓小平独特的政策组合。
There were obviously wonderful things about living in China during those years, but there were also, you know, some serious problems that have to be attributed at least in part to to Deng's particular policy mix.
对吧？
Right?
显然，你知道，腐败在那段时间急剧飙升，还有环境退化，最终导致了‘空气末日’。
Obviously, you know, corruption, which just absolutely soared in the February, to the environmental degradation, you know, that culminated in the airpocalypse.
那是什么？
What was that?
2012年、2013年。
Twenty twelve, thirteen.
当然，还有极其明显的收入不平等，这可以说是邓式政策的直接结果。
And and then, you know, of course, the very visible income inequality, you know, that that was a direct function of of dengism, if you if you like.
习近平上台后所做的一切，如果你宽容地、非常宽容地看待，只要稍微换个角度观察，就会发现……
Much of what Xi Jinping has done since seems like if you look at it generously, very generously, you squint just right.
他的举措似乎旨在解决这些问题，甚至更多，但往往手段也非常强硬。
It it it's aimed at at addressing these these problems, maybe and then some, but, you know, often very heavy handedly too.
所以，你知道，邓小平担心的是保守派会把孩子和洗澡水一起倒掉。
So, you know, Deng worried about, you know, conservatives throwing out the baby with the bathwater.
我们现在担心吗？
Are we worried now?
我的意思是，你经常听到人们说，改革开放的时代已经结束了。
I mean, has has, you know, people you hear all the time saying that the era of reform and opening is done.
它已经结束了。
It's finito.
一切都结束了。
It's all all done.
现在必须把它当作过去的事情来谈论了。
You know, has to be spoken of as a thing of the past now.
习近平在努力纠正一些过激行为的过程中，是否已经终结了这一切？
Has that been put to an end now by Xi Jinping in his effort to, you know, correct some of the excesses?
是的。
Yeah.
我认为这个说法已经变得毫无意义了
I think what has happened with the phrase is it's become effectively meaningless
嗯。
Uh-huh.
在当代中国政治话语中。
In contemporary Chinese political rhetoric.
话语。
Rhetoric.
我的意思是，习近平仍然会使用这个短语。
I mean, Xi Jinping will still use the use the phrase.
而且，你知道，习近平在2012年去了新疆。
And and Xi, you know, went to Xinjiang in 2012.
这实际上是他作为领导人首次出访。
It was his first trip, effectively, as a leader.
对。
Right.
而且很多人都说，这是一种刻意的呼应。
And and and a lot of people said that that it was it was a deliberate echo.
嗯。
Yeah.
然后，你知道，2013年召开三中全会时，他提出了一套非常强烈的经济改革纲领，人们自然就联系起来了。
I and then, you know, in 2013, when you have the third plenum, he comes out with a very strong sort of, you know, platform of economic reform, and people draw the connects the dots.
对吧？
Right?
嗯。
Yeah.
而且人们希望把他看作一位邓小平式的改革者，嗯。
Think and people wanted to see him as a as a as a dengist reformer Mhmm.
在他上台时，人们期待他在经济上有所作为。
Economically when he when he came to power.
我的意思是，他有着在各省任职的履历。
I mean, he had a track record of of, you know, working in provinces.
他在福建待了很长时间，早期的官方媒体曾称他为改革者，就像邓小平1992年南巡时那样。
He was in Fuzian for a long for a long time and was was referred to in state media as a reformer in the early the same, you know, the same point that Deng is only his southern tour in 1992.
2012年他回到深圳这个渔村的神话之地，2018年又回来了，2020年再次回到深圳。
He goes back to the fisherman's village of Shenzhen mythology when he goes in 2012, and he's back in 2018, and he's back in 2020 to Shenzhen again.
我认为，到那时，有趣的是，他不再直接谈论邓小平的遗产，2021年的历史决议中也是如此，我相信听众们都知道，邓小平的提及被降低了。
I think, at that point, what's interesting is he is he stopped directly talking about Deng Xiaoping's, legacy and in the historical resolution in 2021 as well, I'm sure listeners will be aware that Deng is dialed down.
我认为那份文件中只提到了他六次。
I think there's six mentions of him in that document.
所以，这显然是有意为之的疏远。
So, you know, there is a deliberate move away.
我认为，或许可以对习近平持一种善意的看法：中国经济发展中容易实现的成果已经被摘取了，对吧？
I think, you know, again, to perhaps look at it charitably for Xi, he's the low hanging fruit of Chinese, you know, economic life has been picked, right?
他确实面临挑战，并转向民族主义，以此来凝聚人心。
He does face, and he's pivoted towards nationalism as a way of pulling people together.
我不知道他还有什么其他手段，能够像邓小平在九十年代那样，通过经济增长来为党的执政提供合法性。
I I don't know that he has that many levers that he can pull, would that would allow for the sort of economic growth that Deng used as a way of legitimizing party control in the nineties.
对。
Right.
对。
Right.
不再有源源不断、取之不尽的城镇移民，你知道的，低薪劳动力。
No longer has an endless inexhaustible supply of of urban migrants, you know, as as low Yeah.
用于出口制造的低成本劳动力。
Low cost labor for manufacturing for export.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
当然，所有那些以债务驱动的增长
And, of course, all of the all of the kind of the debt fueled growth
对。
Right.
已经反过来重创了中国经济。
That has happened has come back to bite the Chinese economy as well.
你越了解那个时代，就越会回到陈云的观点，觉得他或许确实看到了许多后来才显现的矛盾与问题，不仅仅是对习近平而言。
The more you read of of the era, you do come back to Chen Yun sometimes and think that maybe he was onto something in terms of he he points out a lot of the contradictions and problems that will will later come to be, you know, not just for Xi Jinping.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
在写完这本书、回顾这个关键时刻，并发现它与我们当前处境的某些相似之处后，你认为我们是否正处在另一个‘启动引擎’的节点上？比如像当年的‘南方谈话’那样，面对如今中国经济的停滞？
Having written this now, looking at this pivotal moment and, you know, finding certain parallels with with with the situation we're facing now, do you think we're ripe for another sort of jump start, another another southern thing looking at at the sort of stagnation in the Chinese economy today?
我认为问题在于，这种增长动力从何而来？
Well, I think the challenges are where does that come from?
当代领导层的爆炸性增长源泉在哪里？
Where do those sources of explosive growth come from for, the contemporary leadership?
我认为人们已经意识到，低垂的果实已被摘尽，而推动中国经济在九十年代和二十一世纪初发展的债务驱动型增长，遗留了诸多严重问题。
And I think that realization that the low hanging fruit has been picked, and that a lot of the, kind of debt fueled growth that propelled, Chinese economy through the nineties and early two thousands has has bequeathed significant problems.
显然，目前关于如何拯救中国疲软的房地产市场，存在着大量争论。
Obviously, at the moment, there's a lot of debate as to how to fix China's ailing property market.
所以，说来你可能不信，我对当前的中国领导层试图走这条平衡之路确实有些理解。
So I do have some sympathy, believe it or not, with the current Chinese leadership in trying to thread that needle.
显然，他们已经转向民族主义，强调中华民族的伟大复兴，并通过习近平的‘大反腐’行动打击腐败。
And obviously, they have pivoted to nationalism and the re you know, the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and also cracking down on corruption with Xi's big cell.
我认为，从外部视角来看，更难理解的是，为什么习近平会提及邓小平，继续谈论经济改革和进一步开放的可能性？因为他在2012年作为中国领导人首次重要出访就去了深圳，这明显是在向邓小平致敬，参观了深圳这个渔村的神话之地，并在邓小平雕像前敬献花圈。
I think what makes it harder to quite understand from from an outsider's perspective is why Xi had kind of invoked Deng and carried on talking about, the possibility of economic reform, and and greater opening because he goes to Shenzhen in 2012 as his first significant trip as as Chinese leader, very much in homage to to to Deng Xiaoping, goes and visits the the fishing village of Shenzhen mythology, goes and lays a wreath of flowers at Deng's statue in Shenzhen.
接下来的一年，2013年的十八届三中全会，出现了关于进一步市场化改革的显著修辞暗示，这似乎是他要走的方向。
And then the following year, the third the third plenum of twenty thirteen, there's a, you know, significant kind of rhetorical suggestions of of greater marketization, being the way he's gonna go.
战略性的
Strategic
信号传递。
sing signaling.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
所以，正如你所说，对于我们这些习惯于解读其中玄机的人来说，要将这种说法，甚至更近期的言论，与实际发生的情况调和起来，确实非常困难。
And and I so I think for those of us, as you say, who are kind of used to trying to read the runes of it, it was actually quite hard to, it's quite hard to square that and even, you know, more recent, rhetoric with actually the reality of what is happening.
现在令人着迷的是，邓小平在当前中共历史叙事中的地位，即便没有被完全抹去，也已变得极其微不足道。
I think what's fascinating now is the degree to which Deng is functionally, if not quite erased, certainly a very minor, mention in current CCP historiography.
如果你看看2021年的历史决议，你会发现，毛泽东和习近平被列为核心，而邓小平的这一头衔已被取消，他在该文件中仅被提及了六次左右。
And if you look at the 2021 historical resolution, he's, you know, he's not, you know, there's Mao and Xi on a, you know, as the kind of core, and Deng has had that title removed from him, and he's mentioned, I think, six times in that document.
而且，2022年南方谈话周年纪念日，国家媒体根本没有举行任何纪念活动，而以往的周年纪念日，有时甚至被隆重地高调宣传。
And the anniversary, the twenty twenty two anniversary of the Southern Tour wasn't marked at all in state media, and that had always, you know, in previous anniversaries, it had been quite elaborately in in in a couple of cases.
我认为，这仅仅是因为它容易引发不利的对比。
Well, I think it just simply invites unfavorable comparison.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为，江泽民去世时你也看到了这种情况，人们担心对那个时代的怀旧情绪会带来强大的影响力。
And I think, you know, you saw that with, Jiang Zemin's death as well and the, the fear of of the nostalgic power of of of people thinking back to that to that era.
我认为邓小平的问题还在于他如何在1989年之后运用自己的政治权力——尽管他当时已无任何正式职务，却仍能利用自己的影响力达成所愿。
I think Deng's also problematic because of the way in which he deployed his political power post particularly post '89, you know, that he was obviously in no official position, of authority, but yet managed to leverage his his power to get what he wanted.
我认为这可能具有威胁性。
And I think that potentially is is is threatening.
我认为，关于党是否永远正确的叙事，在八十年代末期尤其成问题，因为这会让人质疑这种修辞方式——正如我所说，短短几年内就换了两位总书记。
And I think, you know, just the narratives around whether the party is eternally right, I think the late eighties tend to make that problematic as a as a rhetorical approach, you know, if, as I say, to lead two general secretaries in the space of a couple of years
当然。
Sure.
这表明事实并非如此。
Suggests that's not the case.
是的。
Yeah.
乔纳森，非常感谢你抽出时间和我交谈。
Well, Jonathan, thank you so much for spending the time with me.
祝贺你的新书出版。
Congratulations on the book.
提醒大家一下，这本书名为《南方谈话：邓小平与中国未来的斗争》。
Just to remind everyone, it's called The Southern Tour, Deng Xiaoping and the Fight for China's Future.
这本书刚在五月中旬出版，赶紧买一本吧。
It just came out in mid May, so pick yourself up a copy.
同时，让我们继续进入推荐环节。
Meanwhile, let's move on to recommendations.
首先，让我快速感谢威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校，感谢他们提供的免费站点研究以及今年对塞内卡的慷慨支持。
First, let me very quickly thank the University of Wisconsin Madison for, its set of free station studies and its generous support for Seneca this year.
好的。
Alright.
乔纳森，你有什么推荐吗？
Jonathan, what do you have for us?
推荐。
Recommendations.
我可以推荐两个吗？
Can I can I do two?
这样可以吗？
Is that allowed?
当然可以。
Absolutely.
是的。
Yeah.
我的第一个推荐与中国相关，是关于大英博物馆举办的一个展览，我想很多人都知道，这个展览叫《中国隐秘的世纪》。
So my first one is relate is China related, and it is to do with an exhibition that I think many people will be aware of that happened at the British Museum, which is called China's Hidden Century.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
但实际上，我的推荐并不是这个展览，因为展览已经结束了。
And actually, my recommendation isn't the exhibition because it's closed anyway.
但实际上是展览出版的书籍，尤其是那本主书，书名也是《中国隐秘的世纪》，里面包含了许多非常精彩的论文。
But actually the book or the two books that were produced by the exhibition, particularly the main the main book, which has the same title, China's Hidden Century, which has a number of really lovely essays in it.
但我喜欢它的原因是我这里有一本，它是一本大型画册，里面包含了大量来自清朝的物质文化文物，而展览所聚焦的正是晚清时期。
But I think the reason I like it, I have a copy of it here, it's a big coffee table book, is it has an incredible, wealth of, artifacts from material culture, from, the Qing dynasty, which the exhibition, the late Qing dynasty, which the exhibition deals with.
实际上，书中收录的文物数量比在大英博物馆举办的展览还要多。
And they were actually able to pull together more in the books than they were in the exhibition that was held in the British Museum.
所以我认为这本书不仅学术内容非常深刻，作为一本放在咖啡桌上的书，随手翻阅也很棒，我强烈推荐。
So I think it's a really lovely, very insightful in terms of scholarly writing, but just as a kind of thing to have in your coffee table and have a flick through, I would really highly recommend that.
我的另一个推荐是关于科技方面的，听众们可能已经听说过，但我觉得它非常有用。
My other recommendation is something technological, which, listeners might be aware of, but I find incredibly useful.
我读了很多书，经常收到很多关于中国的书籍要读，也经常在iPad上阅读，我用了一个叫VoiceStream的应用，你听说过吗，凯泽？
I read quite a lot of, I get sent quite a lot of China books to read and read quite a lot of things on my iPad and I've, there's an app called VoiceStream, which are are you aware of that, Kaiser?
没有。
No.
我没听说过。
I'm not.
这个应用可以将任何文本来源朗读给你听。
Which will basically take any text source and and read it to you.
哦，天哪。
Oh, god.
我需要这个。
I need that.
我太需要这个了。
I need that so badly.
而且，语音的质量显然变得越来越好。
And it's, the quality of the voices is getting obviously better and better.
我发现，当我阅读一些深奥的经济史或官方党令时，保持专注容易多了。
And, I find it much easier to maintain my focus when I'm reading through, you know, sort of dense economic history or sort of official party, diktats.
如果有人读给我听，而不是强迫我自己
It's a lot easier, if someone's reading it to me than to force myself to
天啊，没错。
God, yeah.
读它。
Read it.
所以，Voice Dream 对我来说简直是救星。
So Voice Dream is a bit of a godsend for me, must say.
哦，太棒的推荐。
Oh, fantastic recommendation.
这对我来说也会是救星。
That will be a god send for me.
我曾经一直很挣扎。
I've I've struggled.
我试过各种其他选择，但通常它们要求我固定坐在电脑前，听那种机械般的声音。
I've looked at all sorts of other, you know, options, but, you know, usually, they require me to sit fixed at my computer and listen to a robotic sounding voice.
如今，如果你听听像 ChatGPT-4o 能做到什么，真是令人惊叹。
These days, I mean, if you listen to what, like, chat GPT four o is able to do, it's it's astonishing.
我是说，这些声音有多逼真。
I mean, how realistic the voices are.
所以，没错。
So Yeah.
不过我认为他们因为斯嘉丽·约翰逊而惹上了麻烦，当然，是因为
Although I think they got in trouble with Scarlett Johansson, of course, for
对。
Right.
当然。
Of course.
因为那件事。
For that.
是啊。
Yeah.
我的意思是，每个人听起来都像斯嘉丽·约翰逊，但我不确定。
I mean, everyone sounds like Scarlett Johansson, but I don't know.
这就是他们的论点，
That's the argument,
我觉得。
I think.
嗯。
Yeah.
好吧。
Alright.
我的建议来自伊莎·丁的推荐，我不久前请她上过节目。我读了安德烈亚·沃尔夫的书《伟大的叛逆者：第一批浪漫主义者与自我观念的发明》，这本书讲述了一群杰出的德国知识分子，他们活跃于十八世纪末至十九世纪初，直至拿破仑入侵德国这一地区。
My my recommendation is at the suggestion of Iza Ding, who I had on the show not too long ago, I read Andrea Wolff's book, Magnificent Rebels, The First Romantics and the Invention of the Self, which is really it's about this remarkable group of, you know, German intellectuals who it's the end of the eighteenth and through the early nineteenth century up until, you know, basically up until Napoleon's invasion of that part of Germany.
他们聚集在图林根州的一个小大学城——耶拿。
They gathered in this little university town called Jena in Thuringia.
我们谈论的是席勒、洪堡兄弟、约翰·戈特利布·费希特，他的‘自我’哲学可以说是维系这个群体的核心思想。
And, you know, we're talking about Schiller, the von Humboldt brothers, Johann Gottlieb Fichte, whose sort of, you know, philosophical ideas, the Ich philosophy is sort of the glue that holds this group together.
还有黑格尔、浪漫主义作家诺瓦利斯，以及歌德也在其中。
Hegel, the romantic writer, Novalis, the the and Goethe is there too.
哦，他是因为住在魏玛才在那里的。
Oh, he's because he's he lives in Weidmar.
真是一群博学多才的人。
A pretty polymathic bunch.
天啊。
Oh my god.
是啊。
Yeah.
我的意思是，洪堡兄弟两人就已经把所有领域都涵盖了。
I mean I mean, the von Humbolts already, you know, between the two of them have every everything covered.
但这真是太惊人了。
But it it's amazing.
因为歌德和席勒关系很近，所以他经常在那里。
So, you know, because his Goethe is quite close to Schiller, so he's there all the time.
但还有他们生活中的女性，其中一些人同样成就非凡。
But there's there's also, you know, the women in their lives, so, you know, some of whom are are just magnificently accomplished.
比如卡罗琳娜，我的天，她在书中因为多次结婚，拥有这么多不同的姓氏。
Carolina, for example, who is I can't I mean, she has so many surnames through the different through the book because she's married to about half the men in the book at various points.
但书中也充满了大量琐碎的八卦、背后中伤和戏剧性的纷争。
But there's also a lot of just absolute petty gossip and backstabbing and a lot of soap operatic drama.
你能想到的每一种爱情多面体组合。
Every kind of configuration of love polyhedron you can come up with.
但这仍然非常了不起。
But it's still really it's remarkable.
这很有趣。
It's fun.
这很轰动。
It's scandalous.
这本书也很好读。
It's a quick read also.
我推荐它。
I recommend it.
安德烈亚·沃尔夫，《伟大的叛逆者》。
Andrea Wolf, Magnificent Rebels.
好的。
Alright.
很好的推荐。
Great recommendation.
我得弄到那个东西，叫VoiceStream，
I gotta I gotta get that thing VoiceStream, it's called,
VoiceStream，对，就是这个。
VoiceStream, that's right.
好的。
Alright.
我们马上去弄。
We'll get that right away.
嗯。
Yeah.
去看看。
Check it out.
约翰·查特温，非常感谢你。
John Chatwin, thank you so much.
谢谢，凯撒。
Thanks, Kaiser.
嗯。
Yeah.
再次祝贺你的新书。
Congrats once again on the book.
再为所有人提一下：南方谈话、邓小平与中国未来的斗争。
Just one more time for everyone, the southern tour, Deng Xiaoping, and the fight for China's future.
这本书现在已经出版了，而且正如预期的那样，获得了很好的评价。
It's out right now, and, I'm it's getting great reviews as it should.
好了，约翰。
Alright, John.
谢谢，凯撒。
Thanks, Kaiser.
你正在收听《辛迪加播客》。
You've been listening to the Syndicate Podcast.
本节目由我，凯泽·郭制作、录制、工程处理、编辑和母带处理。
The show is produced, recorded, engineered, edited, and mastered by me, Kaiser Guo.
请通过 Substack 支持本节目，网址是 syndicate.substack.com，那里有越来越多优质的原创中国相关文章和音频内容；或者如果你有任何可以帮助我们的想法，请发邮件至 cynicapod@gmail.com。
Support the show through Substack at syndicate.substack.com where there is a growing offering of terrific original China related writing and audio, or email me at cynicapod@gmail.com if you've got ideas on how you can help out.
别忘了在 Apple 播客上留下评价。
Don't forget to leave a review on Apple Podcasts.
衷心感谢威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校东亚研究中心今年对本节目的支持。
Enormous gratitude to the University of Wisconsin Madison Center for East Asian Studies for supporting the show this year.
再次感谢乔纳森·查特温。
Thanks once more to Jonathan Chatwin.
感谢收听，我们下周再见。
Thank you for listening, and we will see you next week.
保重。
Take care.
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