2035年通用人工智能崛起，软银抛售英伟达，巴菲特沉默 | Diet TBPN

现在大家都认为AGI（通用人工智能）将在十年内实现。

Everyone has ten year AGI timelines right now.

这一切始于Sam Altman那篇帖子，说超级智能离我们只有几千天。

It started when Sam Altman put out that post, like, super intelligence is just a few thousand days away.

当时这很奇怪，因为去年他写那篇文章时，所有人都在说AGI离我们只有一年。

And at the time, it was kind of odd because, like, when he wrote that post last year, everyone was like, AGI is one year away.

AGI离我们只有两年。

AGI is two years away.

那就像是快速起飞的时代。

It was like fast takeoff time.

大家都非常兴奋。

Like, everyone was very excited.

然后他站出来说，这还需要几千天。

And then he came out and was like, it's a few thousand days away.

于是Sam在他的超级智能时代博客文章中表示，可能还需要十年。

And so Sam came out and, you know, and he he was kind of in his blog post of the superintelligence age talking about, know, maybe we're a decade away.

接着Andre Karpathy几个月前，几周前也在我们的频道上说AGI还需要十年。

Then Andre Karpathy goes on to our cash just a couple months ago, couple weeks ago, says AGI is a decade away.

然后我们的频道发布了这份关于AGI实现时间的概率密度分析。

And then to our cash posts this this probability density of of when AGI will be achieved.

美国有可能实现它。

There's a chance that America does it.

中国也有可能实现它。

There's a chance that China does it.

而中位数，第50百分位点正好是2035年。

And the median, the 50 per the fiftieth percentile was exactly twenty thirty five.

然后

Then

你知道那张图表吗，就是那张看起来特别玄乎的图表，标明了什么时候该赚钱。

You know that that, that chart, that, like, very, schizo chart that says periods when to make money.

你在X上见过这个流传的内容吗？

Have you seen this floating around on x?

感觉它好像是大约100年前制作的。

And it's like it was created, like, I guess, about a 100 years ago.

每当图表与现实事件吻合时，人们就会引用它——因为它基本标注了发生恐慌的年份、经济繁荣期、股价高点与抛售时机，以及经济萧条期、股价低点与买入时机。

People people reference it anytime it, like, actually aligns to events because it's basically has years in which panics have occurred, years of good times, high prices, and and, time to sell stocks, and years of hard times, low prices, and a good time to buy stocks.

所以这本质上就像是选股占星术。

And so it's basically like, astrology for stock picking.

好吧。

Okay.

那它现在预测什么？

And and what is it saying right now?

他们预测2035年将会发生一次大恐慌。

2035 is a year is they're predicting is when a panic will occur.

哦，有意思。

Oh, interesting.

这倒是和所有AGI时间线预测不谋而合。

Well, that certainly aligns with all these AGI timelines.

可不是嘛。

There you go.

我最近在研究METR指标，这个我们得好好辩论下。

And then I was looking at METR, and this one we'll have to debate a lot more.

但Meter一直在追踪AI完成长任务的能力，目前呈指数级增长。

But Meter has been tracking AI's ability to complete long tasks, and it's growing exponentially.

以前大概只能坚持6秒。

It used to be, like, six seconds.

现在大概两小时。

Now it's, like, two hours.

要知道，当你与AI领域的任何人交谈时，他们会告诉你智能体处理更长时间跨度任务的能力正在不断增强。

And, you know, when you talk to, anyone who's in the AI field, they'll tell you that the agents are getting more and more capable of handling longer longer time horizon tasks.

问题在于，我觉得人类根本没有时间跨度这个概念。

The question is, I feel like humans don't have a time horizon.

我觉得人类就是出生后，目标就是生存、繁衍、壮大。

I feel like humans, they're just born, and the goal is, like, survive, be fruitful, multiply.

对吧？

Right?

嗯。

Yep.

所以我认为如果要追踪计量数据，你需要展望到三十年左右，比如整个职业生涯的长度。

And so I feel like if you're if you're tracking the meter data, you need to get out to, like, thirty years, like a full career.

对吧？

Right?

就像指令应该是'去赚钱'，然后它就去当律师，完整地度过一生，在三十五年职业生涯后退休。

Like, the prompt needs to be, like, go make money, and then it just goes and becomes a lawyer and, you know, lives its full life and retires after, after a thirty five year run.

当然，当你追踪倍增曲线时，2035年那次，计量数据基于那条对数曲线预测AI将具备数十年跨度的时间规划能力。

And, of course, when you track out the doublings, one in 2035, the meter is projecting based on that log curve that or that logs that log graph that AI will be able to have a time horizon in the in the decades.

我对计量数据的解读是，再次确认2035年会出现通用人工智能。

My read on the meter data is that, you know, AGI 2035 again.

这可能最混乱、最不明确。

It's it's May maybe the messiest, the the least, like, definitive.

但有趣的是，现在十年似乎成了共识，意见分歧少了很多。

But what's interesting is that it just feels like ten years is this consensus right now, and there's much less diversity of opinion.

现在已经没多少人再说两年就能实现了。

There aren't that many people saying two years anymore.

现在已经没多少人会说五十年了。

There aren't that many people saying fifty years anymore.

大家现在都倾向于说十年。

Everyone's kinda saying ten years.

我在想，咱们先别急着下结论，试着准确预测这件事何时会发生，就从心理学角度来分析。

And I just wonder like, let's put aside like, let's try and accurately predict when this thing happens, and let's just analyze it from a psychological perspective.

而且，当科技界对某件事达成'十年'共识时，这意味着什么？

And, like, what does it mean when the tech community all has a consensus of something that's a decade?

说'十年后'可能只是人们不知道确切时间时的托词。

Like, a decade away could just be what people say when they don't know.

对，没错。

Like Yeah.

如果你问我飞行汽车何时实现，我会说十年后。

If you ask me when flying cars are gonna happen, I'm gonna say a decade.

如果你问量子计算机何时问世，哦，那也得十年。

If you're gonna say when quantum computing, oh, that'll be a decade.

哦，火星移民呢？

Oh, Mars?

对。

Yeah.

那也是十年后的事。

That's a decade.

大多数人会高估自己一年内能完成的事。

Most people under overestimate what they can accomplish in one year Yes.

却低估十年间能取得的成就。

Underestimate what they do what they can do in ten years.

而在这个情况下，我们就像...确实如此。

And in this situation, we're just like, yeah.

我们估计十年内就能实现通用人工智能。

We're estimating that we can just achieve AGI in ten years.

就我个人对AGI的感受而言，我确实被这些观点说服了。

When I personally feel, like, about AGI, like, I'm convinced by these.

我觉得AGI离我们还有十年之遥。

Like, I feel like AGI is ten years away.

而且我并不觉得自己是在应付，或者在做某种心理逻辑跳跃之类的事。

And I don't feel like I'm, like, coping or doing some sort of, like, mental logic jumps or something.

就像如果你非要我做个预测，我大概会说还需要十年左右。

It's just like if you actually force me to put a prediction down, I probably would say about a decade.

然后我就会想，好吧，那我到底该怎么改变自己的行为？

Then I go to, well well, like, how should I actually be changing my behavior?

如果十年后会有重大变革发生，那感觉就不该只是按部就班地生活。

Like, if something big is coming in a decade, it feels like you should actually should not just be acting normally.

这感觉像是某种偏好伪装正在发生。

It it feels like there's some sort of preference falsification going on.

看看有多少人在说'十年'这个期限。

Like, how many everyone's saying a decade.

但有多少人真正按照十年期限在行动？

How many people are actually acting like it's a decade?

如果距离实现还有十年，这期间你究竟该做些什么？

Like, what should you be doing in the intervening years if it's a decade away?

难道就只该开发些能带来小小多巴胺奖励的有趣技术吗？

Like, are you just supposed to, like, build technologies that are fun little dopamine rewards?

还是说应该在此之前尽可能积累资本？

Are you trying to, like, accumulate as much capital as possible before?

有谁会真的做十年规划呢？

Who plans around ten years at all?

对吧？

Right?

人们往往会这样，是的。

People tend to Yeah.

现在就去追求他们想要的东西，是的。

Go for things that they want today Yeah.

在某种程度上。

In some ways.

对吧？

Right?

所以如果有人，比如说，他们二十多岁，是的。

So if somebody, like, let's say, they're in their twenties Yeah.

然后，比如说，我想拥有自己的房子，是的。

And, like, I wanna own a home Yeah.

在2035年之前。

By the time by 2035.

是的。

Yeah.

他们现在就想要那东西，所以他们虽然明白，好吧，这需要一些时间才能实现。

They want that thing today, and so they they under but they might understand, okay, it's gonna take some time to get there.

是的。

Yeah.

但为了这个难以预测的未来情景，真正在生活中做出改变

But actually making real changes in your life for this, like, impending scenario that's hard to predict

是啊。

Yeah.

完全是的。

Entirely Yeah.

非常非常困难。

Is very, very difficult.

而且我不知道你是否知道，今年早些时候可能更流行开玩笑说，你知道的，就是那个'金毛犬最大化'的梗。

And I don't know that you know, it was maybe more popular earlier this year to joke about, you know, what you know, the golden retriever maxing.

对吧？

Right?

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

我们...我们会...

We would we would

讨论这个。

talk about this.

对吧？

Right?

但感觉这种对话已经有所改变了。

But it feels like that dialogue has kind of changed.

泰勒，你对我的观点怎么看？

Tyler, what what do you think about my take?

你觉得呢，你同意哪些部分？

What do thinks, what do you agree with?

你不同意哪些部分？

What do you disagree with?

嗯。

Yeah.

我觉得人们似乎都围绕着这个十年周期来站队，这确实很有意思。

I I think it's definitely interesting that people seem to kind of align around this ten year thing.

我认为这其中也存在某种偏见。

I think there's also some sort of bias.

对吧？

Right?

如果你认为AI会在三年内到来，嗯哼。

If you think AI is coming in three years Mhmm.

你可能不会只是写写博客而已。

You're probably not just gonna be, like, writing blogs.

比如，你可能会创办一个宏观对冲基金。

Like, you're maybe you're gonna start a macro hedge fund.

也许你会去某个实验室工作，试图真正影响它如何快速实现——如果它真的会很快发生的话。

Maybe you're gonna go work at one of the labs to, like, really try to influence how it's gonna happen if it's gonna happen super quick.

是啊。

Yeah.

所以我觉得这里面有一定的道理。

So I think there's some sense of that.

如果你根本不相信AGI会出现，那你大概也不会写关于AGI的博客。

And if you really don't believe AGI is coming at all, then, like, you're also probably not gonna be writing blogs about AGI.

你只会——

You're just gonna be, like

对。

Yeah.

继续做你的普通工作之类的。

Doing your normal job or whatever.

所以我觉得这里存在某种确认偏误。

So I think there's some, like, confirmation bias there.

泰勒大概是团队里对AGI最深信不疑的人了。

Tyler's probably the most AGI'd per pilled person on the team.

所以很有趣的是你似乎...

And so it's interesting that you're you kind of

我觉得你

I think you

日常表现和团队其他人一样。

day to day act like everyone else on the team.

是啊。

Yeah.

你最大的显性偏好是什么？

What what what's your biggest revealed preference?

这很难说。

That's hard to say.

可能只是上节目玩玩吧。

Maybe just hanging out on the show.

对。

Yeah.

就是做播客而不去上大学。

Just hanging out podcasting instead of going to universities.

就像是，没错。

Just like, yeah.

什么都不重要。

Nothing matters.

这段Alex Wang的视频正在走红。

This clip of Alex Wang that's sort of going viral.

人们都在嘲讽他，因为他建议孩子们学习氛围编程。

People are dunking on it because he recommends that kids learn to vibe code.

我不同意那些黑子的观点。

And I just disagree with the haters.

我觉得这次黑子们错了。

Like, I I think the haters are wrong on this one.

我当时在想，嗯，我有个孩子。

And I was thinking about, like, well, I have a kid.

比如，我该教他快乐编程吗？

Like, would I teach him to vibe code?

昨晚我还在玩乐高。

And I was playing with Legos last night.

我在拼乐高积木。

I was assembling Legos.

根据我玩快乐编程和乐高的经验，我觉得这会非常有趣，这将成为我们共同的活动。

And from what I've done vibe coding and what I've done with Legos, I'm like, this is going to be very fun, and this is going to be an activity that we do together.

我完全赞同学习快乐编程是件好事。

And I'm super I I'm, like, super in agreement that I think learning to vibe code is good.

你觉得呢，汤姆？

What do think, Tom?

我认为那些反对者的观点大概是...

I think like, the point of view of, like, the people hating where that, like

是啊。

Yeah.

哦，你13岁的孩子应该去做B2B SaaS软件，这和说他们应该学快乐编程完全不同。

Oh, your your 13 year old should be, like, making b to b SaaS, which is, like, not not that's different than saying they should be vibe coding.

因为快乐编程本质上就像玩电子游戏，比如制作《我的世界》模组之类的。

Because vibe coding is just, it's, like, basically playing a video game where it's, like, making Minecraft mod or something that's like Yeah.

完全没问题。

Seems totally fine.

对。

Yeah.

有些批评说，你应该去做真正困难的事情。

Some of the criticism some of the criticism was like, you should just be doing really hard things.

你得这么问，13岁的孩子是否应该只学手工编程？

You have to ask is like, okay, should 13 year olds like only be hand coding?

比如，如果你想引导他们从事工程工作，对吧。

Like, if you wanna get them into maybe making doing engineering work, is it Yeah.

难道要让他们用纸笔来编程吗？

They'd doing it with a pen and paper?

那么，替代方案是什么呢？

Like, what what is the alternative?

我13岁时已经在开发小型iPhone应用了。

When I was 13, I was working on little iPhone apps.

是啊。

Yeah.

而且现在有了这些直观的编程工具

And knowing the vibe coding tools that are available today

确实。

Yeah.

我本可以取得更大进步。

I would have been able to make way more progress.

我本可以享受更多乐趣。

I would have had a lot more fun.

没错。

Yeah.

就像有位资深软件工程师坐在旁边，有点像结对编程的感觉。

It would have been like having an expert, like, software engineer sitting next to me, kind of like pair programming.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

是啊。

Yeah.

所以我站在你这边。

And so I'm on your side.

我觉得大家不喜欢亚历克斯，就是因为他太成功了。

I think I think people generally just just don't like Alex because he's been wildly successful.

他基本上是世界上最年轻、最成功的人。

He's basically the youngest, most successful person in the world.

说到亚历克斯·王，他就那样，嗯。

With Alex Wang, he's like, yeah.

他很有钱，但我完全不了解他，也根本没接触过。

He's rich, and I have no idea what the thing he I don't interact with it at all.

说个趣事。

Fun fact.

五年级时，年鉴上问我们长大后想做什么。

So in fifth grade, in the yearbook, they asked, like, what you want to be.

对。

Yeah.

我写的是'投资人'。

I put investor.

五年级就想当投资人？

Investor in fifth grade?

没错。

Yeah.

其实我那时根本不懂那是什么意思。

That's I don't even really know what that meant.

软银本季度利润大涨主要来自OpenAI估值提升。

SoftBank's big profits jump this quarter came from OpenAI's increased valuation.

软银通过从员工手中购股并以更高价格转售，从而推高了股价。

That SoftBank lifted higher by buying shares from employees, and selling them at a higher price.

因此存在疑问：这种凭证是否过于循环？

And so there is a question about is this cert too circular?

尚不清楚软银是否真是这笔交易的定价者，但达里奥·贾斯特肯定是

It's unclear if, SoftBank was really the price setter on this deal, but, Dar Just Dario is certainly

贾斯特·达里奥指出，软银将一笔尚未支付且未计入资产的投资记为资本收益。

Just Dario is saying SoftBank books a capital gain on an investment it hasn't paid for and recorded in its assets.

这种情况会出现在——如果你是投资某基金的公司就会这么做

That creates where you you would do this if you were a company that invested in a fund

对。

Yes.

这可能被称为部分资本，但并非全部

And it's called maybe some capital, but not all of

资本。

it yet.

因此即便尚未实际缴付资本，也能显示存在收益。

And so you can show that there's a gain even though you haven't paid actually paid in the capital yet.

确实。

Yes.

但我觉得软银这种做法虽不违法，却非传统方式。

But I think the way in which SoftBank is doing this It doesn't seem illegal, but I think it's nontraditional.

索菲在X平台上指出，软银正出售英伟达股份，用以投资那些主要开支就是购买英伟达产品的公司。

Sophie, over on X says SoftBank is selling its NVIDIA stake to fund companies whose main expense is buying from NVIDIA.

更重要的是，这并非孙正义首次清仓英伟达。

The more important thing here is that this is not the first time Masa has exited NVIDIA.

他清仓了。

He exited Okay.

2019年股价飙升之前。

In 2019 before the run up.

他当时是英伟达的最大股东，持有公司5%的股份，后来以36亿美元的价格出售，如今这些股份价值已超过2000亿美元。

He was then NVIDIA's largest shareholder, and he had a five per se 5% stake in the company that he sold for 3,600,000,000.0, and it would now be worth over 200,000,000,000.

人们对此感到愤怒是因为他们认为英伟达股价还会继续暴涨吗？

Are people mad about this because they think NVIDIA is gonna rip further?

你卖掉了持有的英伟达股份。

Did Selling your stake in NVIDIA.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

基本上软银是在兑现利润。

So basically SoftBank is booking profits.

当然。

Sure.

OpenAI的利润。

OpenAI profits.

他们随后出售英伟达股票来为原始投资提供资金，而这些投资的利润早已落袋为安。

They are then selling NVIDIA shares to fund the original investment of which they've already booked the profits on.

推动英伟达增长的首要因素就是OpenAI。

And the number one driving force behind NVIDIA's growth is OpenAI.

今天我们将看到软银彻底清仓英伟达的消息引发主流媒体和华尔街空头的恐慌。

Today, we will get the SoftBank completely sold out of NVIDIA fear from bears on mainstream media and Wall Street.

现在还有人做客观研究吗？

Does anyone do objective research anymore?

软银最初于2017年通过愿景基金购入英伟达股份，后在2019年1月全部清仓。

SoftBank initially bought its NVIDIA stake through the Vision Fund in 2017, then exited completely in January 19.

他们错过了。

They missed it.

他们失去了耐心。

They lost patience.

这不是第一次了。

Not the first time.

是啊。

Yeah.

他们是什么时候买进这只最新股票的？

When did they buy this latest slug?

这才是问题所在。

That's the question.

软银在10月份卖出了3200万股英伟达股票，还以90亿美元出售了部分T-Mobile股份。

SoftBank sold 32,000,000 shares of Nvidia in October, also sold part of its stake in T Mobile for 9,000,000,000.

这不是他们第一次从这家芯片制造商套现了。

It's not the first time they've cashed out of the chipmaker.

这种说法真有意思。

That's a funny way to put it.

尽管进行了抛售，软银仍通过其他投资与英伟达保持关联。

Despite the sale, SoftBank remains tied to Nvidia through its other ventures.

没错。

Yeah.

这很合理。

That makes sense.

沃伦·巴菲特表示他将保持低调，这位全球最著名的投资人。

Warren Buffett says he's going quiet, the world's most famous investor.

在准备交棒伯克希尔哈撒韦之际，他警告企业要警惕贪婪。

Warns against corporate greed as he prepares to hand over the reins of Berkshire Hathaway.

这位95岁高龄的老人将在今年年底卸任伯克希尔公司首席执行官一职，逐步退出日常管理工作。

The 95 year old will step back from day to day responsibilities at Berkshire at the end of this year when he retires from his role as chief executive.

当然，克雷格·阿贝尔将接任。

Craig Abel, of course, is coming in.

长期以来，被尊称为'奥马哈先知'的巴菲特在投资者眼中是企业界的传奇人物，他不仅分析旗下公司的业绩表现，还穿插分享人生与商业智慧。

Investors have long seen Buffett often called the Oracle of Omaha as a corporate folk hero, interspersing guidance on his portfolio company's performance with life and business advice.

他指出，高管薪酬披露制度适得其反，反而引发企业高管竞相攀比收入。

He noted, for instance, that requirements for executive compensation disclosures backfired as business chiefs engaged in a race to earn more than rivals.

这些超级富豪CEO们终究也是凡人，最令他们困扰的往往是其他CEO变得更富有。

What often bothers very wealthy CEOs, they are human after all, is that other CEOs are getting even richer.

巴菲特表示：'嫉妒与贪婪总是如影随形。'

Buffett said, envy and greed walk hand in hand.

巴菲特补充说，伯克希尔应避免选择那些计划65岁退休，或追求'炫富'、企图建立商业王朝的继任者。

Buffett added that Berkshire should try to avoid future CEOs who are looking to retire at 65 or who want to become look at me rich or initiate a dynasty.

'炫富'。

Look at me rich.

巴菲特从未被拍到身穿巴黎世家或瑞克·欧文斯服饰摆弄钞票。

Buffett has never been photographed doing a money spread wearing Balenciaga, Rick Owens.

是啊。

Yeah.

所以他曾立誓要捐出自己的财富。

So he he took the pledge to give away to give away his wealth.

因此这将是一次重大的权力交接。

And so, it's gonna be a pretty big changing of the guard.

有个有趣的数据——三十年前65岁的巴菲特，当时远非世界首富。

There's that interesting stat that, like, if you go back thirty years ago when Buffett was 65, he was I don't think he was close to the richest man in the world.

他在第三个三十年里实现了财富的巨额增值。

He he compounded a ton in his third thirty year run.

从65年到95年，他经历了一段特别成功的时期，从相当富有跃升为全球最富有的人之一。

Like, from '65 to '95, he had a particularly good run that took him from pretty rich to one of the richest people in the world.

这非常罕见。

It's very rare.

我们很少见到这么多商界高管或广泛人群，能将职业生涯的巅峰期持续从65年延续到95年。

We just don't see that many business executives or that many, like, people broadly where that's, like, the the highlight of the career is '65 to '95.

巴菲特没有委托创作任何戏剧、诗歌、交响乐、歌剧、芭蕾舞，没有资助任何能流传后世的绘画或雕塑，没有捐赠剧院、合唱团、管弦乐队，也没有建造纪念碑或修道院。

Buffett has commissioned no plays, no poems, no symphonies, no operas, no ballets, funded no paintings or sculptures that will outlive him, endowed no theaters, choirs, orchestras, built no monuments, monasteries.

这完全属实吗？

Is this true at all?

他已承诺捐出一半财富。

He's committed to giving away half of his wealth.

所以我想，部分资金最终会流向歌剧院，因为这些钱会被分散到各种慈善事业中。

So, like, some of the money is gonna wind up with the opera, I imagine, just because it's gonna go out and get diffused amongst all the different charity efforts.

不会全部投入单一项目。

It's not gonna all go into one thing.

霍华德在这点上同意他的观点。

Howard agrees with him on this.

他说巴菲特是对的。

He says he's right.

伟大并非来自巨额财富的积累——而这正是他闻名于世的原因。

The greatness does not come about through accumulate great accumulating great amounts amounts of money, which is what he is known for.

但除此之外，这不过是幸运饼干级别的建议。

But beyond that, it's fortune cookie level advice.

话虽没错，但也仅此而已。

It's not wrong, but it that's about it.

他的合伙人查理·芒格对建筑的贡献，是资助了像工厂般的大学宿舍，其中大部分房间没有窗户。

His partner Charlie Munger's contribution to architecture was to fund factory like college dorms in which a majority of the apartments don't have windows.

这是指UCSB吗？

The is was that UCSB?

那是在哪里？

Where is that?

对。

Yeah.

你去过那个宿舍吗？

It's have you have you been to that dorm?

老兄，我们已经捐款了。

Dude, we made the donation.

嗯。

Yeah.

是啊。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

校园里有些相关记载，但他们放弃了建造无窗宿舍的计划。

There's some reference to it on the campus, but they abandoned the plans to build a windowless dorm.

所以这很苏联风格？

So it's like it's so Soviet?

非常苏联。

It's extremely Soviet.

我不明白他们为什么想要...我原以为是假窗户，本质上就像电视屏幕。

I don't know why they wanted I thought there were fake windows, and they were like TVs essentially.

但它们会播放户外场景之类的画面。

But they would show, like, outdoor scenes.

应该是可以直连Sora的竖屏电视窗。

It should be vertical TV windows that you can just put Sora on.

站在对立面说'他即将打造史上最伟大的挂坠盒'这样的话安全吗？

Is it safe to take the other side of this and just say that like he was about to create the greatest locket of all

我是说，如果他实际上想表达大学生在宿舍里待的时间很少呢？

mean, what if he was basically saying like college students spend very little time in their actual dorms?

没错。

Yep.

因为他们都在外面活动。

Because they're out and about in the world.

他们在学习。

They're studying.

他们在

They're at

图书馆。

the library.

他们在参加活动。

They're at events.

完全正确。

Totally.

宿舍对他们来说真的只是睡觉的地方。

They're really just using the dorm to sleep.

我们为什么不打造些带窗户的公共区域呢？是的。

Why don't we create common areas that have windows Yes.

还有户外区域，这样你就能进花盆了？

And outdoor areas that then you go in your pot?

埃里克·亚当斯今年三月就提出过类似芒格的构想，要求废除保障每位市民窗户使用权的法规。

This is, Eric Adams floated a similar idea to Munger calling for stripping legislation that promises each citizen each city citizen window access this past March.

睡觉的地方根本不需要窗户。

You don't need no window where you're sleeping.

他说这里应该很暗。

It should be dark, he said.

2000美元的分红可能以多种形式发放。

The $2,000 dividend could come in lots of forms.

我们来播放这段视频吧。

Let's play the clip.

乔治，你知道的，这2000美元的分红可能以多种形式和方式发放。

You know, it could the the $2,000 dividend could come in lots of forms and lots of ways, George.

你知道的，这可能只是我们看到的总统议程中的减税政策。

You know, it could be just the the tax decreases that we are seeing on the president's agenda.

你知道的，小费免税、加班费免税、社保免税、汽车贷款可抵扣。

You know, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, deductibility of auto loans.

所以，这些都是税收法案中资助的重大抵扣项。

So, you know, those are substantial deductions that, you know, are being financed in the tax bill.

泰勒。

Tyler.

所以你觉得这个怎么...怎么...怎么...

So Do you feel like this How how how

这会对日内交易社区有帮助吗？

is that gonna help the day trading community?

是的。

Yeah.

我本来

I was

我原本打算用这2000美元大肆投机。

I was planning on doing rampant speculation with this 2,000.

现在我该怎么办？

What am I gonna do now?

是啊。

Yeah.

实际上你已经基本完全投入资金了。

You're actually you're basically fully you've already committed the funds.

对吧？

Right?

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

我已经下了大量串关赌注。

I've already placed a ton of parlays.

是的。

Yes.

所以，我现在该怎么做？

So, like, what am I supposed to do now?

我无法用汽车贷款减税来支付串关赌注账单。

I can't pay my parlay bill with a tax decrease on auto loans.

嗯。

Yeah.

你不是在寻找被动收入。

You're not looking for passive income.

你想要的是巨额

You're looking for massive

老兄，我追求的是巨额收入。

Bro, I'm looking for massive income.

他们应该在国税局官网上设个按钮，让你选择领取200美元刺激支票，或者按下按钮后有50%机会获得4000美元或零元。

They should put a button on the IRS website that allows you to either receive the $200 stimmy check, or if you press the button, you have a fifty fifty chance of getting either $4,000 or zero.

我真的觉得很多人会按下那个按钮。

I really think a lot of people would press that button.

全球两大数据中心开发商在英伟达总部所在地的项目可能多年闲置，因为当地电力公司尚未准备好供电。

Two of the world's biggest data center developers have projects in NVIDIA's hometown that may sit empty for years because the local utility isn't ready to supply electricity.

48兆瓦。

48 megawatts.

我们在做什么？

What are we doing?

那那是孩子

That's that's child

蚂蚁的数据中心。

The data center for ants.

大家冷静点。

Calm down, people.

莫斯的儿子是男版凯西·伍德。

Moss's son is a male Kathy Wood.

他今天卖出英伟达股票意味着英伟达还有很大上涨空间。

Him selling NVIDIA today means NVIDIA has plenty of upside left.

确实如此。

It is.

确实如此。

It is.

我是说，归根结底他会卖出英伟达股票。

I mean, it just comes down to he will take he's selling NVIDIA.

他会把这笔钱给OpenAI，然后OpenAI又会转给英伟达。

He's gonna give that money to OpenAI, and then OpenAI is gonna give it to NVIDIA.

所以

So

成交。

Sold.

杨立昆

Jan Lecun

他出局了。

He's out.

说，再见。

Says, see you.

他出局了。

He's out.

他出局了。

He's out.

他出局了。

He's out.

从Meta离职后，他准备创办自己的初创公司。

At from Meta, he's gonna launch his own startup.

泰勒，你怎么看？

Tyler, what's your reaction?

是啊。

Yeah.

我是说，这可是个大新闻。

I mean, this is pretty big news.

我觉得大家对此早有预料

I I think people have kind of expected this for a while