英伟达第三季度财报、特拉维斯·卡兰尼克的新创企、谷歌Nano香蕉Pro反响 | Diet TBPN

英伟达盈利超预期，就业数据也非常乐观。

NVIDIA beat earnings, and the job numbers came back very positive.

我们是。

We are.

新增11.9万个就业岗位，英伟达盈利超预期。

119,000 new jobs, and NVIDIA beat earnings.

本季度营收达到570亿美元，较去年同期增长62%。

The revenue came in at 57,000,000,000 for the quarter, up 62% from this quarter last year.

英伟达取得了惊人的成绩。

Fantastic result for NVIDIA.

当然，这就是为什么股票在抛售，市场在崩盘。

Of course, that's why the stock's selling off, and the market's melting down.

比特币也下跌了10%。

And Bitcoin's down 10%.

这是昨天早上之后我的预测。

That was my prediction after yesterday morning.

预测。

Predictions.

但我当时是肯定的。

But I was Yes.

但我...我对时间线的判断错了。

But I was I was wrong on the timeline.

是啊。

Yeah.

是啊。

Yeah.

是啊。

Yeah.

短暂上涨后，现在所有东西都在抛售。

It pumped shortly, and now now everything's selling off.

前路非常不明朗。

Very unclear where we go.

我确实觉得很有趣，我们处在一个机器人需求激增，同时人类劳动力需求似乎也在激增的世界。

I do think it was funny that we are in a world where demand for robots is surging and also demand for human labor appears to be surging.

英伟达，你知道的，他们制造的芯片销售人工智能。

NVIDIA, you know, the chips that they make sell artificial intelligence.

那本该取代人类劳动力，然而工作需求也在激增。

That should be replacing human labor, and yet the job demand is is surging as well.

值得注意的是，他们表示能看到未来五千亿美元的收入。嗯。

And it's notable they they said they have visibility for a half a trillion dollars Mhmm.

的收入。

In revenue Yeah.

直到2026年，这

Through 2026, which

我是说，听起来很疯狂，但

I mean, seems crazy, but

现在已经不够了。

It's not enough anymore.

我是说，他们一个季度就赚570亿美元。

They're but, I mean, they're making 57,000,000,000 a quarter.

仅下个季度的预期收入就达到650亿美元。

Just for the next quarter, guidance is at 65,000,000,000.

分析师此前预测收入预期为620亿美元。

Analysts had predicted that revenue guidance would be 62,000,000,000.

所以一切都在向好发展。

So everything is trending up.

黄仁勋说，我们已经进入了人工智能的良性循环。

Jensen said, we've entered the virtuous cycle of artificial intelligence.

人工智能正在渗透到各个领域，同时处理所有事务。

AI is going everywhere, doing everything all at once.

多么精妙的引用。

What a great quote.

泰勒对黄仁勋非常满意。

Tyler's very happy about Jensen.

当然，优步创始人特拉维斯·卡兰尼克推出了新产品。

There's new product from Travis Kalanick, the founder of Uber, of course.

它叫做野餐。

It's called Picnic.

我们昨天在节目中讨论了它，并且收到了特拉维斯·卡兰尼克本人的回复。

We discussed it on the show yesterday, and we got a reply from none other than Travis Kalanick himself.

请允许我先提供一些背景信息。

Why don't I start with a little bit of context Please.

他可以补充。

He can add to it.

所以拜托了。

So Please.

我今天早上在通讯稿中写道，通讯稿的主题是'爸爸回家了'。

I wrote in the newsletter this morning, the subject of the newsletter was daddy's home.

他显然带着野餐项目重返时间线了。

He's obviously back on the timeline with Picnic.

野餐是城市仓储系统旗下的新业务。

Picnic is a new business under City Storage Systems.

好的。

Okay.

你可能不知道城市仓储系统这个名字，但云厨房实际上是城市仓储的子公司。

So you don't know the name City Storage Systems, but Cloud Kitchens is actually subsidiary of City Storage.

云厨房曾是顶级项目。

Cloud Kitchens was the top.

我也是

That's what I

这么想的。

thought too.

不是吗？

No?

但实际上恰恰相反。

But it's actually the opposite.

城市仓储系统。

City Storage Systems.

非常好。

Great great.

如果你想

If you want to

有一个低调的，是的。

have an under under the radar Yeah.

控股公司，你知道，垂直整合食品配送。

Holding company to, you know, verticalize food delivery.

当然。

Sure.

Picnic是一个专注于餐饮配送的前端平台。

Picnic is kind of a front facing platform focused on meal delivery.

这个优惠听起来好得不像真的。

The offer sounds too good to be true.

从50多家餐厅配送餐食，无需小费，没有额外费用。

Meals delivered from 50 plus restaurants with no tipping and no fees.

嗯。

Mhmm.

他们还提供订单合并服务，所以一家公司可以从大约10家不同的餐厅下单，同时完成所有订单。

They also bundle orders, so a company can order from 10 or so different restaurants, get it all ordered at the same time.

嗯。

Mhmm.

他已经有一大批客户了，包括富国银行、Live Nation、毕马威、普华永道等等。

He's got a bunch of customers already, Wells Fargo, Live Nation, KPMG, PwC, and a bunch more.

所以我们昨天在讨论小费体验有多么糟糕。

And so we were talking yesterday about how, like, broken the tipping experience is.

是啊。

Yeah.

当你直接给小费时，这是一种鼓励优质服务的方式，比如入住酒店时给小费，你知道的，进门时给某人小费。嗯。

When you're tipping directly, it's a way to encourage great service by, like, tipping if you're checking into a hotel and you're tipping, you know, somebody on the way in Mhmm.

他们会受到激励，让你的住宿体验更美好。

They're incentivized to make your stay great.

嗯。

Mhmm.

同样的道理，你知道的，代客泊车时进门就给小费。

Same thing, you know, valet tipping on the way in.

他们就会把你的车停在最前面的位置。

They're gonna park your car right up at the front.

所以特拉维斯说过，外卖应用的小费机制与反馈无关。

So Travis said, delivery app tipping isn't about feedback feedback mechanisms.

这是一种让消费者支付最高价格的工具。

It's a tool for maximizing the price paid by consumers.

食客在小费上表现得不理性，每支付1美元小费，

Eaters are economically irrational with tip for every $1 in tip.

他们的经济行为表现得像是只支付了80美分。

They economically behave as if it were 80¢.

这只是一个假设的数字，但方向上是正确的。

This is just a hypothetical figure, but it's directionally true.

因为你在情感上对小费感觉良好，心理上，你给得越少，割舍的痛苦就越小

Because you feel emotionally good about tipping, mentally, it you you give it less it feels less painful to part with

那些钱。

those dollars.

购买。

Purchase.

如果你有10美元的税和10美元的小费，你会觉得，哦，我对那10美元小费感觉良好。

If you if there's $10 in taxes and $10 in tip, you'll be like, oh, I feel good about the $10 in in tip.

那感觉像是8美元。

That feels like $8.

而税款，那感觉就不好了。

And the taxes, that feels bad.

对吧？

Right?

这种情况在另一面也会发生。

And it happens on the other side.

所以送餐员在小费方面也是经济上不理性的。

So couriers are also economically irrational with tip.

对于每1美元小费，他们在经济行为上表现得像是1.2美元，再次强调，这是方向性的。

For every $1 in tip, they economically be they economically behave as if it were a dollar 20, again, directional.

因此当你收到小费时会感觉良好，所以你会更珍视那些钱。

And so you feel good when you're tipped, and so you treat those dollars more as more valuable.

因此，这是对人类心理的一种操控手段，应用程序必须实施并最大化利用，否则就会错失经济剩余，而竞争对手将利用这些剩余来击败它们。

And so this is a hack on the human psyche, which apps must implement and maximize or miss out on economic surplus that their competitor will use to defeat them.

所以，即使你的整个品牌都建立在‘我们的应用不设小费’这一理念上。

And so even if you have, your your whole brand is built around our app doesn't tip.

记得优步就发生过这种情况。

Remember this happened with Uber.

如果你的竞争对手使用小费功能，如果他们实施了小费机制，由于人类心理本质导致的经济低效，他们将比你赚取更多利润。

If your competitor is is using tips, if they implement tips, they will just be making more money than you because of this economic inefficiency that arises from the nature of the human psyche.

我把这解读为：增加小费功能是不可避免的。

I read this as adding tipping is inevitable.

增加小费功能是不可避免的。

Adding tipping is inevitable.

我们现在不会这么做，但最终会有人进入市场，去做这件事。

We're not doing it right now, but eventually someone will come to the market, do it.

为了竞争，我们不得不这样做。

We will have to in order to compete.

这不是这里的解读吗？

Is that not the read here?

所以区别在于我认为一次野餐活动已经形成了对立定位。

So the difference here is that I I think that one picnic is, like, is already counter positioned.

嗯。

Mhmm.

对吧？

Right?

所以这是定价问题。

So it's pricing thing.

这是从灵活性角度出发的。

It's a flexibility standpoint.

同时也是逆向定位，比如专注于一个关键买家。

It's also counter positioning on, like, focusing on one key buyer.

是的。

Yes.

显然，你知道，DoorDash和Uber Eats都有这种模式。

Obviously, you know, the DoorDashes, Uber Eats have Yes.

他们那种企业级的服务方案。

Their kind of, like, corporate offerings.

没错。

Yes.

但我认为建立一个不同且更透明的模式很有意义。

But I think, like, just creating a a creating a different and more transparent model makes a lot of sense.

TK对Cloud Kitchens一直讳莫如深。

TK has been kind of like secretive about Cloud Kitchens Mhmm.

对Otter也守口如瓶——那个对标Toast或Square的竞品。当我听到'零佣金、零小费'时，感觉就像...食品配送领域已经有过太多尝试了

Secretive about Otter, which is like the the Toast or or Square competitor that he When I when I hear like no fees, no tips, like it just screams like there's been so many attempts at food food delivery

是啊。

Yeah.

就像那些获得风投支持的新餐饮概念一样。

And just like new restaurant concepts that have been venture backed.

是的。

Yeah.

而且很多都没成功。

And a lot of them haven't worked out.

对吧？

Right?

因为这根本就是不可持续的。

Because it's just like becomes unsustainable.

我认为特拉维斯基本上是通过锁定关键客户类型，试图以量取胜，然后采取这种垂直整合的策略。

I think Travis is basically by focusing on a key customer type, trying to make it up with volume and then having this like vertical approach.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我觉得他有点自虐倾向，竟然选择进军外卖配送这个领域试图取胜。

I believe that he's somewhat of a masochist and that like going and trying to win in food delivery

是啊。

Yeah.

这简直是最艰难的战场。

Is just, the hardest arena.

这就是竞争最激烈的领域。

It's just, the most competitive space.

利润空间从头到尾都很微薄。

It's low margin all the way down.

基于他在该领域的专业经验，我认为他确实有真正的机会和战略。

I believe, just given the domain expertise, I believe that he's, he has a real play here and a real strategy.

我认为我们已经和团队中负责食品订购的同事讨论过这个问题了。

And I think that I think that already, we were talking with, the person on our team that handles, like, food ordering.

嗯。

Mhmm.

他昨天和Picnic通了电话，然后他说这个服务比我们目前在其他平台上看到的要好得多。

He got on the phone with Picnic yesterday, and he was like, this offering is way better than what we're seeing Mhmm.

与其他外卖应用相比，他想要立即切换到Picnic。

With the with the other delivery apps and wants to switch to it immediately.

所以如果TK能让这个商业模式持续下去的话。

So if TK can make the model sustainable Mhmm.

我认为这会非常有竞争力。

I think it'll be quite competitive.

是的。

Yeah.

我是说，你会认为垂直整合应该能实现真正的低成本竞争力，带来更低的价格。

I mean, you would you would imagine that vertical integration should allow low true lower prices, like true cost competitiveness.

这就像商业界的老生常谈。

That's like an age old business adage.

如果进行垂直整合，你就能以低于竞争对手的价格出售，就像在Costco买Kirkland品牌商品那样，这通常被视为高度垂直整合的典型例子。

If you vertically integrate, you can undercut your competitors and just offer lower prices, almost like, you know, buying Kirkland brand at Costco is typically, like, sort of, like, the canonical example of, like, heavy verticalization.

我记得Uber早期的时候。

I remember in the early days of Uber.

那时候很棒，因为你根本不用考虑小费的事。

Like, it was amazing because you didn't need to think about the tip.

所以那种心理负担就不存在了。

And so there that mental load wasn't there.

有星级评价系统，感觉他们实际上，风投可能在某种程度上补贴了它，但对乘客来说价格感觉还是合理的。

There was the star rating system, and it felt like they're actually like, the VCs might have been subsidizing it a little bit, but it felt felt affordable on the on the on the rider side.

对司机来说，感觉人们报酬相当不错，大家某种程度上都挺满意，但风投可能不太高兴。

And on the driver side, it felt like people were getting paid pretty well, and everyone was sort of happy, but maybe the VCs weren't.

但他们最终获得了，你知道的，一家价值2000亿美元公司的股份。

But they wound up getting, you know, a stake in a $200,000,000,000 company.

所以，我认为对所有参与者来说结果都不错。

So, you know, I think it all worked out for everyone involved.

但看起来Travis正在反思小费不可避免地会进入Uber生态系统这个想法。

But it seems like Travis is reflecting on this idea that tipping was inevitable to come to the Uber ecosystem.

小费会进入Waymo生态系统吗？

Is tipping going to come to the Waymo ecosystem?

小费会最终进入这个Picnic生态系统，进入Picnic产品吗？

Is tipping going to come to this Picnic ecosystem, the Picnic product eventually?

我不知道。

I don't know.

我只是

I just

你认为十年后Picnic会有小费制度吗？

Do you think Picnic will have tipping in ten years?

我更倾向于把这看作是一种企业服务。嗯。

I just view this more as, like, a as a as a corporate service Mhmm.

就目前定位而言确实如此。

In its current positioning True.

而非面向消费者的服务。

Than a consumer service.

当消费者购买食物时，如果你选择外卖配送，确实如此。

And when a consumer is buying food, if you're ordering food delivery Yes.

这就像是一种奢侈品。

It is like it is a luxury.

没错。

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

比如，外卖已经变得极其普遍。

Like, delivery has been extremely normalized.

但如果你回溯到四十年前问：'你多久叫一次外卖？'

But if you, you know, re you know, rewind to forty years ago and ask like, oh, how often do you get food delivery?

大多数人会说：'我从不叫外卖。'

Most people will be like, I never get food delivery.

我都是自己去取。

I just go pick it up myself.

这本是奢侈品，却被定位成企业级服务。

It is a luxury, but this is being positioned like as a corporate offering.

我认为如果Picnic能与这些不同公司建立深度合作——就像我之前列举的那些品牌一样——

And I think that if Picnic can get just like deep relationships with a bunch of these different companies that have, you know, I I listed off some of logos before Yeah.

如果他们能融入这些公司并成为其工作流程的一部分，我认为他们有可能通过规模来弥补。

If they can just become embedded in these companies and part of their workflows, I think they'll they'll it's possible to like make it up in volume.

是啊。

Yeah.

TK的真相炸弹。

Truth bomb from TK.

小费是最大化价格的技巧。

Tipping is a hack to maximize price.

这是心理学。

It's psychology.

消费者更愿意支付小费，而不是菜单价格或服务费。

Consumers are willing to pay more in tips than they are willing to pay in fees for or menu price.

所以一个16美元的卷饼加上4美元小费，在人们感觉上比一个20美元不能给小费的卷饼便宜得多。

So a $16 burrito plus a $4 tip feels far cheaper to people than a $20 burrito that has no a no tip option.

从商业角度来看，我不确定这是否完全是一回事。

From a business standpoint, I don't I don't know I don't know if it's exactly the same thing.

我觉得企业想要更可预测的收入。

I feel like businesses, like, wanna have, like, more predictable Yeah.

成本，不想要那种波动性，比如有时费用是这样，有时费用是那样。

Costs, not have that, like, variability and, like, okay, sometimes the fees are like this, sometimes the fees are like that.

是啊。

Yeah.

我认为这会带来更好的消费者体验。

I think this will be a better consumer experience.

很多公司会给员工发放积分，比如每天20美元的额度

A lot of companies, you know, will give, like, credits to their employees, which is, like, you get $20 of credits

是啊

Yeah.

每天都有

Every day.

然后如果你在这基础上还有额外消费，那就得自己承担了

And then if whatever you're kind of, like, spending on top of that, you have to eat.

对

Yeah.

所以我觉得消费者很可能会更频繁地野餐

And so I think consumers will could very likely, like, picnic more.

我们拭目以待

So we'll see.

这是最初DTC模式演变的一个典型案例，很多Shopify商家都经历过

This is one of the original, like, d to c evolutions that happened with a lot of, like, Shopify merchants.

我记得看过凯莉化妆品这个例子

I remember looking at I think it was, like, Kylie Cosmetics.

有段时间流行透明定价的趋势

There was a trend for a while that was, like, consumers want transparent pricing.

别搞那些复杂的心理营销把戏

Don't do all the crazy psychological hacks.

所以你会觉得确实如此

So you'd be like, yeah.

我就标价30美元，这就是它的价格。

I'm just gonna put it's $30, and that's what it is.

而且它包邮，税费和运费都包含在内。

And it has free shipping, and that tax and shipping is included.

就像我们一开始说的那样，感觉非常好，说出来感觉特别好。

And it's just like what we say up front is feels really good, feels really good to say that.

然后你去那些高销量店铺看看，普遍都是9.99美元的价格。

And then you go to, like, the high performing stores and all across the board, it would be, like, $9.99.

结果你进去后发现还要加收6.42美元的税，再加上运费。

And then you go in and there's, like, $6.42 added in taxes, and then you add shipping.

然后它

And it

就像弹窗广告一样

it's like a pop up

上面显示'一分钟后将清空购物车'之类的。

that says one minute to exit your cart and stuff.

让你欲罢不能，就像钓鱼一样不断收线，不停地加收费用，直到你认输说好吧。

You up and just, like, keeping you on the reel reeling you in like a fish, adding adding fees, adding fees until you're like, okay.

现在我已经填好了所有信息，准备点击下单按钮了。

Well, now I've, like, entered all my information, and I'm I'm ready to click the button.

所以，好吧，就这样吧。

And so, yeah, okay.

你又多收了我两块钱。

You added 2 more bucks.

随便吧。

Whatever.

我会处理的。

I'll just deal with it.

所以这些心理技巧某种程度上是不可避免的。

So these psychological hacks are just, like, somewhat inevitable.

TK的无人机策略是什么？

What is TK's, drone strategy?

他的自主配送策略是什么？

What's his autonomous delivery strategy?

因为他在厨房层面实现了垂直整合。

Because he's vertically integrated at the kitchen level.

他拥有销售点系统。

He has the point of sale system.

他有那种订单前端。

He has the the sort of ordering front end.

是啊。

Yeah.

你可以直接和他互动。

You can interact directly with him.

他正在跳过好几个中间商。

He's going he's cutting out several of the middlemen.

但他会成为Zipline的合理合作伙伴吗？

But is he going to be a logical partner for Zipline?

他会成为Coco和Starship以及这些提供食品配送服务的机器人公司的合理合作伙伴吗？

Is he gonna be a logical partner for Coco and Starship and these robotics companies that are delivering, food?

人们还没准备好接受食物送达速度快五倍时会有多美味。

People aren't ready for how much better food tastes when it arrives five x faster.

这个说法很搞笑，因为实际上我尝过刚做好的食物。

That's a hilarious take because, like, in fact, I have tasted food right when it's made.

这并不完全是件新鲜事。

Like, it's not it's not, like, an entirely novel thing.

是啊。

Yeah.

但他在这里指出的是，Zipline能在四分钟内送达食物，而汽车配送需要二十分钟。

But what he's pointing at here is that Zipline is is getting food delivered in four minutes as opposed to cars that take twenty minutes.

热食送达时仍保持热度，这当然是个优点，但也确实为实际餐厅设立了更高的标准。

So hot food arrives hot, which is certainly a benefit, but, it just does create more of, a, you know, benchmark to the, to the actual restaurant.

我在试图确认特拉维斯是否是Zipline的投资者。

I I'm trying to find if Travis is an investor in Zipline.

谷歌AI概览显示，是的。

The Google AI overview says, yes.

特拉维斯·卡兰尼克是Uber的投资者。

Travis Kalanick is an investor in Uber.

Gemini说或者是Uber。

Gemini says Or Uber.

我未能找到确凿证据证明特拉维斯（投资了Zipline）。

I could not find definitive evidence that Travis

Zipline？

Zipline?

好的。

Okay.

我是说，在自动驾驶方面，他在Uber最初的愿景，感觉他非常需要掌握这项技术。

I mean, on the self driving side, his original vision at Uber, it felt very much like he needed to own that technology.

他想要做的，不仅仅是像从其他公司购买技术那样。

He wanted to be, not just a, like, a buyer of it from a different company.

我是说，现在如果你看城市仓储系统，有云厨房负责制作食物。

I mean, right now, if you look at city storage systems, you have cloud kitchens, which is making the food.

嗯。

Mhmm.

还有Otter，负责支付和订单基础设施。

You have Otter, which is like the payments and ordering infrastructure.

嗯。

Mhmm.

现在还有Picnic，像是前端部分。

And then now, you have Picnic, is like the front end.

对。

Yeah.

实际上任何类型的配送方式都能融入这个系统。

Any type of delivery method actually, like, fits into that system.

我我我觉得，要么增加一种策略，但更可能的是，他会整合多种无人机配送和自动驾驶车辆配送，并继续使用传统人力。

I I I would imagine, you know, either add a strategy, but potentially more likely, he'll just integrate with a variety of drone delivery, and then autonomous vehicle delivery and and and continue to use, traditional labor.

所以纳米香蕉非常出色。

So Nano Banana is remarkable.

看看这张金门大桥的图片。

Look at this Golden Gate Bridge image.

它不仅能生成图片，还能生成周围的所有图表。

It generates the image and also all of the diagrams around it.

这是泰勒看世界的方式，顺便

This is how Tyler sees the world, by

说一下。

the way.

桑达尔说，你们都为纳米香蕉疯狂了。

Sundar says, you went bananas for Nano Banana.

现在来认识纳米香蕉Pro版。

Now meet Nano Banana Pro.

它采用最先进的图像生成技术，基于Gemini三构建，具有更高级的世界知识、文本渲染和精确控制功能。

It's state of the art for image generation, editing with more advanced world knowledge, text rendering, precision plus controls built on Gemini three.

它非常擅长制作复杂的图表，这很棒，就像工程师看世界的方式一样。

It's really good at complex infographics, which is awesome, much like how engineers see the world.

这非常有趣。

That's very fun.

你可以看到这一点。

You can see that.

这里有个例子，有人拿了一张谷歌地图截图，直接把它变成了RPG风格的地图，一张旧金山怪物地图。

Here's one where someone took an, a map, a Google Map screenshot, and just turned it into, an RPG style map, an a San Francisco monster map.

这确实是那种推理模式。

It's really is that reasoning model.

比如，你可以看到金门大桥就在那里，那么攻击金门大桥最合理的会是什么？

Like, you can see the Golden Gate Bridge is there, and what would be logical to have attacking the Golden Gate Bridge?

一只巨型章鱼。

A giant octopus.

然后恶魔岛在那里，旁边还有这只海怪。

And then Alcatraz Island is there, and there's this sea monster next to it.

所有细节他们都处理得恰到好处，完美通过了汉堡测试。

And everything kind of like bit they ended nailed the burger test.

这是首个真正做到这一点的完美模型。

It's the first model to truly do this perfectly.

指令是：移除所有配料，只保留顶部和底部的面包片，保持位置完全不变，然后渲染图像的其余部分。

The prompt is remove the ingredients, leave just the top bun and the bottom bun in the exact same place, and render the rest of the image.

这是我目前最喜欢的应用场景。

Here's my favorite use case so far.

把论文或超长文章转换成详细的白板示意图。

Take papers or really long articles and turn them into a detailed whiteboard photo.

这基本上是人类历史上最伟大的压缩算法。

It's basically the greatest compression algorithm in human history.

当我们拥有ChatGPT时，那种感觉就像，哇哦。

When we got ChatGPT, it was like, oh, wow.

你可以采用，可以采用要点形式。

You can take, you can take bullet points.

你可以把它扩展成一篇文章。

You can expand it into into an essay.

你也可以把一篇文章精简成要点。

And you can take an essay and expand it down to bullet points.

我猜人们会把这些发来发去，但根本不会去读。

And I imagine that people are gonna be sending these, and then they're not gonna be reading them.

然后他们就会说，好吧，就这样吧。

And then they're gonna be like, actually, like Okay.

把这个图表写成文章再总结一下

Turn this diagram into an essay and then summarize

它。

it.

然后再总结一下。

And then summarize it.

英伟达看到了自己的影子，高收益的哈利预示着六个月的牛市。

NVIDIA saw its shadow six more months of bull markets as high yield Harry.

不过谁知道呢？

Although, who knows?

市场还在暴跌。

The market is tanking still.

纳斯达克指数现在下跌了2.1%，比特币也跌了

The Nasdaq is down 2.1% now, and Bitcoin is down

今天跌了86000%。

at 86000% today.

大幅抛售。

Significant sell off.

让我们看看水手本人。

Let's check-in on the sailor himself.

也下跌了5%。

Also down 5%.

是啊。

Yeah.

至少他在追踪Meltem。

At least he's tracking Meltem.

底层资产。

The underlying asset.

Meltem说，英伟达财报电话会议，前六十秒。

Meltem says, NVIDIA earnings call, first sixty seconds.

我们预计2026年收入将达到五千亿美元。

We have line of sight to half a trillion in revenue in 2026.

泡沫甚至还没开始。

The bubble hasn't even started yet.

我们上吧。

Let's go.

迈克尔·伯里说，下面列出的每家公司都有可疑的收入确认。

Michael Burry says, every company listed below has suspicious revenue recognition.

包含所有交易往来的实际图表会让人看不懂。

The actual chart with all the give and take deals would be unreadable.

未来会将此视为欺诈的画面，而非飞轮。

The future will regard this this a picture of fraud, not a flywheel.

真正的终端损害荒谬至极，不。

True end damage is ridiculous No.

不。

No.

需求。

Demand.

真正的终端需求小得荒谬。

True end demand is ridiculously small.

几乎所有客户都由他们的经销商提供资金支持。

Almost all customers are funded by their dealers.

如果你能在一小时内说出OpenAI的审计方，你将赢得一些骄傲。

If you can name OpenAI's auditor in one hour, you win some pride.

你他说的'真正的终端需求小得荒谬'是什么意思？

What do you what does he mean true end demand is ridiculously small?

这根本不是事实。

It's just not true.

比如，有大量公司正在为各种AI产品支付订阅费用。

Like, there are tons of companies that are paying for subscriptions for all sorts of AI products.

我我不知道。

I I don't know.

我我

I I

他是个D号电池，带着疯狂的末日气息。

He's a D cell with a crazy p doom.

我猜他是个D号电池，却毫无末日气息。

He's D cell with a zero p doom, I guess.

是的。

Yes.

如果你现在看投资金额的话 是啊。

If you're looking at the amount of investment happening now Yeah.

与需求相比 是啊。

In comparison to the demand Yeah.

而且你完全不相信产品会变得更好 是啊。

And you don't believe that the products will get better at all Yeah.

如果你不相信 情况就突然逆转了

If you don't believe that It just flipped

太多了。

so much.

就像，有那么一刻感觉，哇。

Like, there was a moment where it was like, wow.

就像，这个新事物的需求在短短几年内从0增长到了100亿美元。

Like, demand for this new thing went from 0 to $10,000,000,000 in just a few years.

这太了不起了。

This is remarkable.

是啊。

Yeah.

然后人们就说，让我们投资一万亿美元进去吧。

And then people were like, let's invest $1,000,000,000,000 in that.

然后就说，好吧。

And it's like, Okay.

嗯，按那个价格来说，其实有点疯狂。

Well, at that price, it's actually kind of crazy.

我不知道。

I don't know.

要处理的事情太多了。

It's a lot to deal with.

是啊。

Yeah.

但如果你想想地球上的任何一个行业

But if you think about any industry on Earth

是啊。

Yeah.

是啊。

Yeah.

你认为地球上每个行业在未来五年、十年内会使用50到100倍以上的代币吗？

Do we think every industry on Earth will be using 50 to a 100 times more tokens within five years, ten years?

说真的，你甚至不需要那么...

Strap, you don't even have to be that much of a

不。

No.

一个的一个

Of a of a

一个可渗透的

Of a permeable.

一个可相信的可渗透的

Of a permeable to believe that.

是啊

Yeah.

事实上，这就像很难很难争辩

In fact, it's like hard hard to argue.

泰勒的可渗透性

Tyler's permeable ing.

因为，当然，那就是你的论点

Because, of course, that is your contention.

你是个第一年的人工智能怀疑论者

You're a first year AI skeptic.