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教皇门,关于教皇的辩论。
Pope Gate, the debate over the pope.
教皇就像一张海报。
The pope is he's a poster.
我喜欢这样。
I like it.
他几乎每天都会发帖,有时一天甚至能发五次。
He posts almost every day, sometimes, like, up to five times a day.
是啊。
Yeah.
他涉猎广泛。
He's got range.
他涉猎广泛。
He's got range.
没错。
That's right.
他会告诉你他会为你祈祷,比如发生自然灾害时,他会为此祈祷。
He'll tell you about he'll pray for you know, if there's a natural disaster, he'll pray for that.
谈论商业。
Talks about business.
谈论人工智能。
Talks about AI.
谈论媒体。
Talks about media.
他谈论各种各样的事情。
He talks about all sorts of stuff.
这真是了不起的壮举。
It's it's a really great feat.
他有一篇关于媒体的精彩帖子。
He had a great post about, about media.
你对媒体有什么看法?
What do you say about media?
他说媒体不能也不该与真理的命运分离。
He said the media cannot and must not separate itself from the destiny of truth.
这话说到点子上了。
That hits.
这是否意味着他是新事实媒体派的人?
Does this does this mean he's a neofactual media guy?
我想是的。
I think so.
我认为他是我们中的一员。
I think he's one of us.
来源与所有权的透明度、问责制、质量、清晰度和客观性,是真正为全人类开启公民权利的关键。
Transparency of sources and ownership, accountability, quality, clarity, and objectivity are the keys to truly opening citizens' rights for all peoples.
世界需要诚实勇敢、心系公共利益的企业家和传播者。
The world needs honest and courageous entrepreneurs and communicators who care for the common good.
我们有时会听到'生意就是生意'这种说法。
We sometimes hear the saying, business is business.
实际上并非如此。
In reality, it is not so.
没有人会被组织同化到仅仅成为齿轮或简单功能的程度。
No one is absorbed by an organization to the point of becoming a mere cog or a simple function.
这类内容你可能会在Pinterest看板上看到。
This is the type of stuff you'd see on, like, a Pinterest board.
虽然挺泛泛而谈的,但很难反驳。
It's like pretty generic, but it's hard to disagree with.
马克·安德森不同意教皇关于人工智能的某个观点。
Marc Andreessen was disagreeing with one of the Pope's takes about AI.
我认为教皇发表评论并提供某种指导或他自己的框架是件好事,是的。
I think it is generally healthy that the Pope is gonna comment and provide some sort of guidance or his own framework Yeah.
关于我们应该如何思考发展人工智能。
For how we should think about developing AI.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得这看起来是健康的。
I think that seems healthy.
没错。
Yeah.
这里的实时评论是马克·安德森引用了一篇关于AI的帖子,配图是Kat Stoffel——那位因采访西德妮·斯威尼而走红的GQ专题总监。
The the play by play here was Marc Andreessen quote posted that AI post with an image of Kat Stoffel, who's the GQ features director who went viral for interviewing Sydney Sweeney.
实际上人们有点困惑,不明白这个特定梗在这个语境中的含义。
People were actually, like, kind of confused on what that particular meme means in this context.
对于梗模板,有两种解读方式。
With a meme template, there's two ways to read into it.
一种是,那个实际的视觉元素
There's, like, the the the actual visual
嗯。
Mhmm.
比如,那个人的面部表情传达了什么信息。当然。
Which is like, what is the expression Sure.
就是人脸的表情。
Of the person's face.
嗯。
Mhmm.
对吧?
Right?
你不一定非要看过《大空头》。
You don't have to have watched The Big Short Sure.
才能理解
To understand
如果我是一个盯着
If I'm somebody staring
屏幕的人,就像
at the screen just like
困惑。
Confused.
困惑。
Confused.
你只是在说,我被这个搞糊涂了。
You're just saying, I'm confused by this.
是啊。
Yeah.
所以《大空头》里的迈克尔·伯里
So Michael Burry in the big short
对。
Yes.
只是困惑地看着屏幕。
Just looking confused at a screen.
对。
Yes.
对吧?
Right?
而且它确实有某种,很明显是的。
And and it and it has sort of a, obviously Yeah.
如果你看过这部电影并理解完整背景,会有更多含义,但现在有人不需要知道这些背景。
More meaning to that if you've seen the movie and you understand the full context, but somebody doesn't have to know the context now.
所以
So
大多数时间线将马克的帖子解读为教皇在训斥AI建造者,但本不该如此。
Most of the timeline interpreted Mark's post as the pope is scolding AI builders and shouldn't be.
这大致是你理解的方式吗?
Is that roughly the way you you interpreted it?
我认为很多时间线都将其解读为,教皇似乎在训斥AI建造者。
I I think a lot of the timeline interpreted it as, like, the pope is is say is, like, scolding AI builders.
时间线上还有另一场关于布拉德·格斯特纳对减速主义者评论的低调讨论。
And there's been this other there's there was another, like, kind of low grade rumble on the timeline about, like, Brad Gerstner's comments about, like, decels.
我觉得我支持AI发展中的道德判断,也支持所有领域的道德判断。
I feel like I'm just pro moral discernment in AI development and also just pro moral discernment everywhere, I guess.
某种程度上是人生哲学。
Sort of a philosophy for life.
这听起来并不算特别激进的观点。
It doesn't feel like a wildly hot take.
但显然,你需要明白道德判断、AI安全这些概念是相关的,但并不完全相同。
But obviously, like, you need to understand, like like, you know, moral discernment, AI safety, like, these things are linked, but they're not exactly the same.
去年,或许是2023年,曾有过一场关于快速起飞、AI末日、纸夹场景的大辩论。
Last year, or maybe it was 2023, there was a big debate about fast takeoffs, AI doom, paper clipping scenarios.
这些就是人们当时讨论的内容。
That was the stuff people were talking about.
但今年我感觉我们更关注那些不那么科幻的末日场景。
But this year, I feel like we've been much more focused on much less sci fi doomsday scenarios.
所以GPT精神错乱把朋友逼疯了。
So GPT psychosis drives a friend crazy.
这超级真实。
That's super real.
超级真实。
Super real.
浪漫伴侣导致出生率暴跌。
Romantic companions crashing the birth rate.
这是个这是个非常值得讨论的真实话题。
That's a that's a super real discussion to have.
我觉得我觉得浪漫伴侣这个话题已经被充分辩论过了。
I think it I think the the romantic companion thing is being debated sufficiently.
对吧?
Right?
我我同意。
I I agree.
回来我同意。
Back I agree.
甚至从科技圈开始,嘿。
From even the tech community on, hey.
也许我们也许这样不好。
Maybe we maybe this isn't good.
但这就是讨论的焦点所在,远少于什么GPT六明天会制造生物武器吗?
But that's where the discussion has been, much less so about, oh, is are there gonna be bioweapons tomorrow from g p t six?
这些都是真实存在的问题。
Those are all real problems.
它们既值得在公共领域讨论——我们也参与其中,也需要AI实验室内部的实际工作。
They deserve both discussion in the public square, which we've been a part of, but also real work inside the AI labs.
我认为你不应该对早期发现新技术负面外部性的人直接扔D电池。
And I don't think you should just throw D cell at someone who's identifying a negative externality of a new technology early on.
我我我不认为那一定就是减速主义。
I I I don't I think that that's, like, not necessarily decelerationist.
你总爱叫我减速主义者。
And you'd be calling me a decel all the time.
所以我我我认为很重要的一点是,开发新技术时可能会出现负面外部性,比如污染。
So I I I think it's important, like, if you're developing a new technology, there might be negative externalities, pollution.
可能会影响生育率或让人发疯的风险。
There might be some risk of the birth rate or driving people crazy.
有哪项技术是完全没有负面外部性的吗?
Has there ever been a technology that didn't have negative externalities?
播客肯定不是。
Definitely not podcasting.
播客的负面外部性可多了。
Plenty of negative externalities with podcasting.
所以你想聊聊。
So you want to have a chat.
你想谈谈并了解情况。
You want to have a talk and understand what's going on.
但在我看来,运用贝叶斯统计也很重要。
But it's also important to employ Bayesian statistics, my opinion.
所以你必须了解基准率。
So you have to understand the base rates.
当一项技术从零发展到十亿用户时,你基本上就免费获得了人类大规模的所有疯狂行为。
So you take a technology from zero to a billion users, you kind of just get all the craziness of humanity at scale for free.
如果人类会互相残杀之类的,而你的平台有十亿用户,那平台上就一定会有人互相残杀。
If humans, you know, like, you know, kill each other or something like that, like and you have a billion humans on your platform, there's gonna be humans on your platform that kill each other.
你得区分清楚,这真的是一种趋势的开端吗?
You need to separate out, like like, is this actually the beginning of a trend?
我们在推动它吗?
Are we catalyzing it?
与此同时,还发生了非常不幸的、与Chateaputee相关的自杀诉讼案件。
And this is happening with the with with the very unfortunate, like, lawsuits around people taking their own lives related to Chateaputee.
就像有人使用汽车、手机、谷歌搜索和ChatGPT,因为这些是普及度很高的东西。
It's like there are people that use cars or phones and Google search and ChatGPT because those are such widespread things.
我们需要搞清楚基准率是多少?
We need to understand, like, what's the base rate?
然后...然后这真的在...
And then and then is this actually on
风口浪尖上?
the tip?
关于平台上的自杀问题,看起来很多都是人们在对话中提及的。
On the suicide problem on the platform, it seems like a lot of them are people are having a conversation.
是的。
Yep.
他们有自杀倾向。
They're suicidal.
对。
Yep.
你可以争论:如果有人想自杀,这个产品是否应该完全停止运作?
You can have a debate on on if if someone is suicidal, should the product work at all?
也许?
Maybe?
比如,也许它根本就不该运作。
Like, maybe it should not work at all.
完全正确。
Totally.
但上周突然出现的辩论部分
But the part of the debate that popped up last week
嗯。
Mhmm.
某种程度上是有人通过提示工程精心设计,其熟练程度竟到了鼓励他人
Was that somehow a guy had prompt engineered it engineered Where was experience the to such a degree that it was encouraging
这样更好。
It's better.
一个人结束自己的生命,基本上就是在说,是的,你已经度过了美好的一生。
A person to take his own life, basically saying, like, yeah, you've lived a great life.
就像,我支持你。
Like, I'm I'm rooting for you.
用我的话来说,这就像是正确的选择。
Like, this is the right move, like, to kind of paraphrase it.
是的。
Yeah.
这简直黑暗得令人难以置信。
And it just was incredibly, incredibly dark.
贝叶斯统计学会说,好吧。
The Bayesian statistics would say, okay.
如果平台有十亿用户,那么使用该平台的人是否比不使用前更可能做出可怕的事?
If there's a billion people using on the platform, are people that use the platform more likely to do something terrible than they were prior without it?
那么它实际上是在增加坏事发生的概率,还是在减少?
So is it actually increasing the level of bad stuff happening, or is it decreasing it?
因为你可以统计出使用过谷歌的犯罪者数量,这个数字可能非常高。
Because you can just count up the number of the number of people who commit crimes who have also used Google is probably very high.
比如说,我大概能给你举出很多使用谷歌后犯罪的人。
Like, I could probably show you a lot of people that use Google and then committed crimes.
对吧?
Right?
嗯,在ChatGPT的背景下,困难之处在于——可能有很多人因为有了ChatGPT可以倾诉,感觉有人会倾听他们的心声等等,才没有选择自杀。
Well, and the thing that's difficult in the context of ChatGPT, there's probably a bunch of people that because ChatGPT, they haven't killed themselves because they have somebody to speak with, and they feel like somebody will listen to them and what whatever.
对吧?
Right?
也许...可能有上百万个例子证明它确实起到了鼓励作用。
Maybe maybe it maybe there's, you know, million examples of it encouraging Yeah.
有人成功找到了其他出路
Somebody successfully to take find another
这就是Instagram的经典问题。
This is the classic thing with Instagram.
有报告显示,使用Instagram的年轻女性中,约三分之一的人自我认知变差了。
With Instagram, there there was this report that showed that, like, one third of young women who used Instagram perceived themselves, like, less well.
它引发了她们的身体形象焦虑。
Like, it gave them body image issues.
这个报告一出来就炸了——30%的人使用后感觉更糟。
And I was all as soon as that was reported, it was, like, bombshell, thirty percent feel worse after using Instagram.
我当时就想:另外三分之二的人是什么情况?
And I was like, what's happening with the other two thirds?
她们感觉更好了吗?
Like, do they feel better?
因为那样的话整体居然是正向的,这很奇怪。
Because that's like a net net positive, which is weird.
我们得...可能其他人感觉没变化,只有30%的人感觉更糟。
We gotta, like maybe it's like everyone else just feels the same, and then 30% feels worse.
这简直是降级。
That's that's a downgrade.
但如果66%的人感觉良好呢。
But if 66% feel great Yeah.
而33%的人感觉更糟,我们仍需关注这点,但这与净负面影响不同。
And then 33% feel worse, like, we should still address that, but that's not the same as a negative as a net negative.
意思是,它并未产生负面影响。
Like, it's not having a negative impact.
所有这些因素综合起来,你需要像科学家一样进行统计分析才能理解。
And so all of these things go into, like, you need to be a scientist and you need to be doing the statistics to understand.
道德判断的问题在于某些技术,我认为你完全可以说,我们将远超基准线。
The question of moral discernment is with certain technologies, I do think you have the ability to just say, like, we're going to go a lot further than the baseline.
说实话,我觉得Waymo正在经历这种情况。
So I think this is what what's happening with Waymo, honestly.
我认为Waymo现在就能部署自动驾驶汽车,然后宣称——
I think Waymo could deploy self driving cars right now and be like
到处都能用。
Everywhere.
你是说,到处都能用。
Everywhere, you're saying.
他们可以在没有远程操控的情况下全球部署,结果可能导致数十万人死亡。
And they could deploy them everywhere without teleoperation, they'd and probably be killing, like, hundreds of thousands of people.
而他们会说:是啊,
And they'd be like, yeah.
这和人类造成的伤亡差不多。
Well, it's about the same as what humans do.
其实更少。
It's less.
各位,这已经算少了。
Everyone it's less.
比汽车更安全。
Safer than cars.
如果他们说是减少了10%。
If they were like, it's 10% less.
比如,泰勒,你知道每年有多少人死于机动车事故吗?
Like, how many people how many people Tyler, do you know how many people die from motor vehicle accidents every year?
我们能查一下吗?
Can we look that up?
因为如果
Because if
这必须是,比如说
It has to be, like
我觉得大概是两个。
I think it's, like, two.
四万左右吧。
Forty thousand or something like that.
你们觉得呢?
What do we think?
在美国是四万人。
In The US, it's forty thousand.
然后如果谷歌出来说,是的。
And and and if Google came out and we're like, yeah.
我们将会导致三万九千人丧生。
We're gonna we're gonna kill thirty nine thousand people.
这将是一个...我们将拯救一千条生命。
It's It's gonna be a one We're gonna save one thousand lives.
人们可能会说,不了谢谢。
People would be like, No thanks, actually.
这太糟糕了。
This is terrible.
就是说,别那么做。
Like, don't do that.
他们刚做出那个决定,感觉就像是他们非常非常努力地想要直接跳到完全安全的方案。
They've just made that decision, and it feels like they've pushed really, really hard to jump straight to something that's fully safe.
我认为很多AI开发者都有类似的能力和机会说:嘿,我们真的要非常努力确保AI模型的事故率——如果你即将做出暴力行为时——我们真的要非常努力解决这个问题,让事故率尽可能趋近于零。
And I think that a lot of AI builders have a similar ability and a similar opportunity to say, Hey, let's actually work so hard to make sure that the incidence rate of an AI model, if you're on the verge of doing something violent, let's really, really work hard on this problem to make sure that it's as close to zero as possible.
Claude或者说Anthropic发布了更新,提到产品会在某些瞬间——比如直接帮你报警。
Claude came out or or Anthropic came out, and they had they they had some update where they were talking about instant like, moments where the product would call the police on you.
是的。
Yes.
对吧?
Right?
如果他们觉得存在某种实质性威胁的话。
If they felt like there was, like, some meaningful threat.
人们对此很恐慌,因为他们觉得:我可不想让我的电脑... 是啊。
People freaked out about that because they're like, don't want my I don't want my computer Yeah.
打电话报警,比如当有人谈论一个假设场景时
Calling, you know, if somebody was talking about a hypothetical
是啊。
Yeah.
然后警察就找上门来了。
And then cops show up at their door.
这是个复杂的问题,复杂的议题,完全是技术领域未探索的新疆域。
That is a complex question, complex issue, entirely new, unexplored territory for technology.
但显而易见的是,这本质上是个道德议题,必须以道德的分量来展开讨论。
But what's so clear is that it is a moral question, and it needs to be it needs to be discussed with the weight of morality.
你不能简单地写个数学公式就指望解决这个问题。
Like, you cannot just write a math equation to understand how to solve that problem.
我认为AI安全研究之所以如此复杂,恰恰说明它很有价值。
I think that AI safety research is so complex because I think it's good.
AI研究领域有大量精于量化的聪明人,他们能通过数据判断——比如这会导致生育率崩溃吗?
Like, there's a ton of smart people in AI research that are super quantitative and can look at the data and actually understand, like, is this going to cause the birth rate to collapse?
或是会引发更多暴力事件?
Or or is this going to cause more violence?
还是说将导致更多欺诈或精神异常?
Or is this gonna cause more fraud or insanity?
正是如此。
Exactly.
他们还能深入系统设计,开发出能预警'这个人开始行为异常'的监测机制。
And then also, they can go in and and potentially design a system that can detect, oh, this person's getting sort of crazy.
及时把这类人拉回正轨。
Let let's pull them back.
我们正身处一个诡异领域:AI安全项目固然重要,却像是在猎杀黑天鹅。
We're in this weird territory where it feels like the AI safety project is valuable, but it is the business of black swan hunting.
若在两年前调查担忧AI影响的人群,有几人能预见到GPT精神错乱、AI伴侣、无限戏仿视频这些现象?
If you go back two years ago and you polled all the different people that were worried about the impact of AI, how many of them would have said, GPT psychosis, romantic companions, AI video feeds infinite jest?
耐人寻味的是,虽然AI安全和道德判别很重要,但实际结果、对抗的具体问题都难以预测——本质上是在应对未知的未知。
It's just interesting that, like, AI safety, the moral discernment crowd, this stuff is important, but it's hard to predict what it will actually look like, what the results will be, what the problem you'll be fighting is because it's this odd, like, unknown unknowns, basically.
我认为多数人没意识到教宗利奥的命名是刻意为之。
I think most people are unaware that Pope Leo's name choice was intentional.
上一位利奥十三世曾带领教会度过工业革命,并为技术发展提供伦理指引。
The last Leo the thirteenth led the church through the industrial revolution and helped make sense of technology.
于是,明确的教皇利奥认为自己将继续这项工作,以人工智能和新兴技术为核心,引领教会度过一个变革的时代。
Then, clear Pope Leo sees himself continuing that work, guiding the church through an era of transformation with AI and emerging technologies at the center.
当时确实出现了一股反对马克的偏好浪潮,就像成长中的丹尼尔刚发布消息后,就有很多人跟风加入。
There was, a real preference cascade against Mark, where it was, like, once Growing Daniel had, like, kind of posted, there was, like, a lot of people were, like, jumping on the bandwagon.
还有一篇迈克尔·佩奇的文章说,提醒大家马克带着这种程度的严肃与细致,可能是我们这一代最复杂、最高风险的政策议题,带着他的一亿美元超级政治行动委员会和游说基金来到华盛顿。
And there was this one by Page, Michael Page, that says, reminder that Mark is bringing this level of serious and nuance on what might be the most complex and high stakes policy topic of our generation to DC with his $100,000,000 super PAC and lobbying fund.
比如,我不确定这是否属实。
Like, I don't know that that's true.
比如
Like
某种程度上,我认为人们不值得过度解读的原因是他从未透露过只言片语。
like Part of why I don't think people like, it's not worth reading too much into it is that he has not shared a single word.
我有点不同意安德森·霍洛维茨不投资任何SaaS公司的说法。
I I sort of disagree with with the characterization that, Andreessen Horowitz doesn't fund any SaaS.
比如,他们确实投。
Like, they do.
他们重仓持有那些非常无趣的企业级SaaS公司,这些公司与任何争议都毫不沾边。
They have big positions in, like, very boring enterprise SaaS companies that are so removed from anything controversial.
但在孵化器里押注种子阶段公司确实会带来很大的品牌影响,这很奇怪。
But taking a flyer on a seed stage company in your incubator does have a lot of brand impact, which is weird.
是啊。
Yeah.
这有种奇怪的,难道他们不是
There there's a weird like, aren't they
甚至他们讨论的是一张7500美元的支票与7.5亿美元的支票。
looking Even into they're the talking about like a $7.50 k check versus a $750,000,000 check.
他们可能已经向Databricks投入了数十亿美元,或者按完全稀释后的估值现在可能已达数十亿。
They might have put like multiple billions into Databricks or fully diluted value right now might be in the billions.
但就像,是的,这就像,无关紧要,是的,如果你在一个无争议的类别里有一千倍的量。
But like, yeah, it's like, it doesn't matter, yeah, if you have a thousand x more in a non in an uncontroversial category.
就像那个有争议的才是,才是会在时间线上爆发的那个。
It's like the controversial one is is the is the one that will, like, blow up on the timeline.
所以你确实需要小心一点,这有点冒险。
So you do sort of have to be careful, and it's it's a little bit risky.
我的感觉是,昨晚激烈捍卫教皇,然后今早去做弥撒的人数,可能接近于零——地位游戏。
My sense is that the number of people who, one, fiercely defended the pope last night and then two, went to mass this morning is probably close to zero status games.
地位游戏。
Status games.
昨天早上在教堂,没人谈论教皇门事件。
At church yesterday morning, I there was no conversation of Pope Gate.
没有。
No.
那时候人们已经差不多翻篇了?
People had kinda moved on by then?
是啊。
Yeah.
我想他们大概已经翻篇了。
I guess I guess they'd moved on.
说实话,我不认为他们那时候已经翻篇了。
Honestly, I don't think they'd moved on by then.
就像,不。
Like, No.
当我之后打开手机时,我心想,哇。
When I opened my phone afterwards, I was like, wow.
这件事还在持续发酵。
This thing's still picking up.
时间线确实如此。
The timeline certainly had.
别逼我去敲那块牌子。
Don't make me tap the sign.
科技界里,风投网红与工程师研究者之间始终存在分歧。
There has always been some daylight between the influencer VC crowd and the engineer researchers in tech.
但在AI监管这个话题上,双方简直是天堑相隔。
But on the subject of AI regulation, it is a complete chasm.
他如此教条地反对降低AI风险的工作,现在甚至嘲讽教皇说技术创新具有伦理和精神分量,AI开发者应培养道德判断力。
And reason so dogmatically against working on decreasing the risk from AI that now he's mocking the Pope for saying the technical innovation carries ethical and spiritual weight and that AI builders should cultivate moral discernment.
是啊。
Yeah.
人们都支持这个观点。
People are in favor of that.
我不知道。
I don't know.
AI实验室可以出周边了,比如一顶老爸帽,上面就写'培养道德判断力'。
Opportunity for an AI lab to make merch that, you know, a dad hat that just says cultivating moral discernment.
旧金山道德判断力公司。
The moral discernment company of San Francisco.
教皇不会喜欢旧金山的。
Pope would not like San Francisco.
要是教皇利奥来旧金山街头随便走走,他肯定会非常生气。
If, Pope Leo takes a trip to San Francisco and just walks on the street at all, he's gonna be very upset.
大概会说:'AI就是在这种地方造出来的?'
Gonna be like, this is where AI is getting built?
你觉得你老板可怕吗?
Do you think your boss is scary?
看看这封马克·安德森在网景产品发布热潮期间发给本·霍洛维茨的残酷邮件。
Look at this brutal email from Marc Andreessen to Ben Horowitz during the heat of the Netscape product launch.
我们为1996年3月5日在纽约的重大发布做好了一切准备。
We lined everything up for a major launch on 03/05/1996 in New York.
然而就在发布会前两周,马克未经告知迈克和我,就把整个战略透露给了《计算机经销商新闻》杂志。
Then just two weeks before the launch, Marc, without telling Mike or me, revealed the entire strategy to the publication Computer Reseller News.
这名字起得真妙。
That is a great name.
我当时气疯了。
I was livid.
我立即给他发了封简短邮件。
I immediately sent him a short email.
看来我们不用等到五号再发布战略了,本。
I guess we're not gonna wait until the fifth to launch the strategy, Ben.
十五分钟内,我收到了如下回复。
Within fifteen minutes, I received the following reply.
显然你根本没意识到事态有多严重。
Apparently, you do not understand how serious the situation is.
我们正在被全方位碾压,碾压,碾压。
We are getting killed, killed, killed out there.
我们现有产品比竞争对手差远了。
Our current product is radically worse than the competition.
现在公司面临倒闭风险,这都是服务器产品管理团队的错。
We are now in danger of losing the entire company, and it's all server product management's fault.
下次采访你他妈自己来。
Next time, do the fucking interview yourself.
哔——
Bleep.
对你的联合创始人说话也太咄咄逼人了吧。
What an aggressive way to talk to your cofounder.
太疯狂了,他们之前还这样针锋相对,转眼就共事了一代人。
It's crazy that they that they were they were, you know, at each other's throats like this, and then they're they've been on a generation
本曾是网景公司目录与安全产品线的副总裁。
Ben was a vice president for the directory and security product line at Net Netscape.
让我们为副总裁们鼓掌。
Let's give it up for vice presidents.
是啊。
Yeah.
不。
No.
我是说,真正的解读是,很多人读到这个会说'哇哦'。
The I mean, the real read on this is, like, there's a lot of people that read read this and be like, oh, wow.
他们肯定觉得这种友情没救了。
Like, they must like like, that that is unrecoverable from a friendship.
但其实不是的。
And like, nope.
绝对可以修复。
It is Definitely recoverable.
绝对可以修复。
It is definitely recoverable.
这实际上正是
It's actually the foundation
建立一段美好
of Have a great
美好友谊的基础。
a great friendship.
我同意。
I agree.
我们不在节目中说脏话。
We don't we don't swear on the show.
我们在内部沟通中也不说脏话。
We don't swear in internal, communications.
但我们经常破例。
But we throw it out regularly.
是啊。
Yeah.
我们直接动手解决问题。
We just go straight to phys getting physical.
这就是你们的作风。
That's the way you do it.
要知道,人们把网景视为典型的互联网公司。
You know, you think of Netscape as, like, a .com company.
你会觉得,他谈论的是1996年的事,那比互联网泡沫破裂足足早了五年。
You think of them as, like, you know, it's but it's, like, he's talking about 1996, which is, like, full five years before the bubble pops.
日期是1996年3月5日。
It's 03/05/1996.
当时他们正与《电脑经销商新闻》进行战略评估,并为此召开新闻发布会。
They're they're at a level where they're they're doing strategy review with computer reseller news and, like, doing press around this thing.
你知道那时候发生了什么吗?
Do you have any idea what was going on at that time?
好的。
Okay.
据我所知,1994年他们宣布网景对非商业用途的用户完全免费。
So I believe that it was so 1994, they say Netscape is free for non commercial use for everyone.
好的。
Okay.
然后这份新闻稿说的是它只对学术和非营利用途免费,而不是对所有消费者都免费。
And then this press release was that it's only gonna be free for academic and non profit use, not just, like, all consumers.
好的。
Okay.
所以如果你是消费者,你就得花钱买?
So if you're a consumer, you'd have to, like, buy it?
这,是啊,真有意思
It's, yeah, such an interesting
请给我一个浏览器。
One browser, please.
请给我一个浏览器。
One browser, please.
我是说,我告诉过你,以前AOL是通过光盘分发的。
I mean, I told you, you used to get AOL in the on a disc.
1995年8月9日他们上市了,然后这是1996年。
So 08/09/1995, they IPO ed, And then this is 1996.
所以到九月份时他们已经是一家上市公司了。
And so they're they're already a public company in September.
然后泡沫就这样随着互联网的发展持续膨胀了五年。
And then, like, the bubble just keeps inflating for five years while the Internet grows and grows and grows.
多么疯狂的时代啊。
What a wild what a wild time.
他们在1995年前两个运营季度的收入大约是1600万美元。
They did about 16,000,000 of revenue in the first two operating quarters of nineteen ninety five.
换算到现在,相当于新一轮刺激支票发放后的16亿美元。
For context, that's like 1,600,000,000.0 in today's dollar after, after the new round of stimulus checks.
你觉得教皇真的用AI生成这个了吗?
Do you think the pope actually used AI to generate this?
因为这位Sours说教皇正在发布完全由AI生成的AI相关内容。
Because Sours here is saying the pope is post posting fully AI generated content about AI.
这是Pangram AI的检测结果。
This is the Pangram AI detection result.
一个非常搞笑的恶作剧就是伪造这种截图,这很容易做到。
A a very funny gag is to just just fake one of these screenshots, which is very easy to do.
所以如果有人写了什么,你可以直接放进来,说是AI生成的,发出去,然后你就赢了。
And so if somebody writes something, you can just put it in here, say that it's AI generated, post that, and then you're like, owned.
这张截图声称因为说技术创新可以是一种形式。
This screenshot is making the claim that because it said technological innovation can be a form.
是啊。
Yeah.
我...我不知道现在的AI生成检测器有多厉害。
I I I I don't know how good the AI generator detectors are these days.
另外,如果梵蒂冈用AI来翻译我也不会惊讶。
Also, I wouldn't be surprised if the Vatican is using AI to translate.
而且如果...没错我也不会惊讶。
And I wouldn't be surprised if Right.
如果教皇利奥在他的书房用拉丁语讲话。
If Pope Leo is is speaking in his study In Latin.
有人正在用...你知道的...用笔记录下来...是的。
Someone is recording it in, you know, with the phys you know, physically writing it down Yeah.
然后传给下一个人,那人再把它放进...对。
That is being passed to somebody who then puts it into Yeah.
文字处理器里用AI稍微润色一下。
A word processor and uses AI to polish it up a little bit.
哦,有人提出了一个有趣的反教皇观点,算是另一种反教皇立场。
Oh, there was one interesting anti pope take, sort of anti pope take, from another
我要说,我认为整个马克·安德森'教皇门'风波对所有人都是个教训。
I will say I will say, think this whole the whole Marc Andreessen Popegate debacle is a lesson everyone can take.
不要嘲弄教皇。
Don't mock the pope.
反弹来得猛烈且几乎瞬间爆发。
The blowback was fierce and almost instantaneous.
在彼得·蒂尔的敌基督讲座中,有一段专门讨论教皇的内容。
From the Peter Thiel Antichrist lectures, there's a segment on the pope.
我觉得这很有趣,因为这不是最支持教皇的观点。
And I thought it was interesting because it's not the most pro pope take.
我...我不知道。
I I don't know.
蒂尔说他非常支持J·D·万斯。
Thiel says that he is very pro J.
D·
D.
万斯,但他对万斯效忠教皇有所顾虑。
Vance, but he has some concerns about his allegiance to the pope.
我担心的是他与教皇走得太近。
The place that I would worry about is that he's too close to the pope.
为教皇祈祷、以这种方式支持教皇很重要,但存在将教皇过度神化的风险——盲目听从他的每句话,而PT认为这未必是...正确的生活方式。
It is important to pray for the pope to support the pope in that way, But, there is a risk elevating the pope to the point where you're listening to everything he says, and that's not necessarily what PT thinks is is, like, the correct, the correct way to live your life, I suppose.
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我觉得有趣的是,他实际上是在说J·D·万斯就像凯撒大帝。
I mean, I think the interesting thing about this is actually said he's basically saying that JD Vance is like Caesar.
这挺有意思的
That's kind of interesting
这太疯狂了。
That is crazy.
观点。
Opinion.
是啊。
Yeah.
是啊。
Yeah.
但我认为PT长期以来一直反对教皇。
But I think PT has been, like, anti popes for a long time.
他有这么个观点,反对天主教的两个字论据就是教皇方济各。
He had this thing where he was like, oh, the the two word argument against Catholicism is like Pope Francis.
我从未想过教皇会在任何情况下发帖谈论'生意就是生意'。
I never would have expected the pope to post business as business in any context.
他正专注于正事。
He's standing on business.
我很高兴他这么做。
I'm glad that he is.
教皇有没有展示过钞票?
Has the pope ever done a money spread?
这正是我们需要查清的事。
That's what we need to get to the bottom of.
Metallic在这里说:'我太喜欢教皇参与21世纪议题并给出简洁正确又有意义的建议这一剧情线了'。
Metallic here is say, I'm loving this arc of the pope engaging with twenty first century themes and offering simple but correct and meaningful advice.
而且他还在引用媒体帖子。
And and this and he's quoting the media post.
教皇当时状态神勇。
The pope was on a tear.
连续三首爆款歌曲,真的,可以说是突破性的。
Three back to back bangers that really, like, broke through.
如果你正在构建造福人类的事物,你应该知道旧金山'海洋之星教堂'里有一座程序员圣人卡洛·阿库蒂的圣坛。
If you are building something to help humanity, you should know that there's a shrine to Saint Carlo Acutis, the programmer saint, at Star of the Sea Church in San Francisco.
那里有为你的技术挑战准备的代祷文。
There is a prayer of intercession for your technological challenges.
祝你有个蒙福的周日。
Have a blessed Sunday.
我谦卑地请求您仆人们的祈祷,让我也能通过技术引领他人归向您。
I humbly ask your servant's prayers that I too may lead others to you through technology.
启迪我的理解,指引我的双手在每个设计和每行代码中,使我的工作永远服务于您更大的荣耀,并惠及使用我所创造之物的人们。
Enlighten my understanding and direct my hands in every design and in every line of code, that my work may always serve your greater glory and benefit those who will use what I create.
就像为为为小
Just like For for for small
对旧金山的少数人来说,这感觉极其、极其、强大且完全。
number of people in San Francisco, this feels like extreme extremely, powerful and Totally.
重要的祈祷。
Important prayer.
完全同意。
Totally.
完全同意。
Totally.
布莱恩·约翰逊这个周末经历了一场疯狂的旅程。
Brian Johnson went on a crazy, crazy trip this weekend.
你关注这个了吗?
Did you follow this?
这是另一件正在发生的热点事件。
This is the other current thing that was going on.
太疯狂了。
It was crazy.
布莱恩·约翰逊因宣称战胜死亡将是人类最伟大的成就而闻名。
Brian Johnson has been famous for saying conquering death would be humanity's greatest achievement.
我喜欢这条帖子,上面写着:愿所有因傲慢被神处死的人安息,但我与众不同且更优秀,甚至可能比神明更胜一筹。
I love this post that says, r I p to everyone killed by the gods for their hubris, but I'm different and better, maybe even better than the gods.
公开这样做确实非常大胆。
It was, very bold to to do this publicly.
完全同意。
Totally.
我不清楚五克迷幻蘑菇会对人产生什么影响。
I no reference for what five grams of mushrooms does to a person.
从反应来看,显然剂量很大。
It's very clear from the reaction that that's a lot.
看起来他确实有微小的可能性会彻底改变性格。
It does seem like he there was a small chance that he would reroll his personality.
我刚刚还在和泰勒讨论这个。
I was talking to Tyler about this.
你原本希望布莱恩·约翰逊在体验后会变成什么样?
What what were you hoping that Brian Johnson becomes post trip?
结合背景来说,我们很久以前在节目里讨论过,致幻剂就像一种筛选机制。
In context, I think we talked about this on the show a long time ago where, like, psychedelics are like a sorting thing.
所以你总想投资那些经历过筛选的创始人。
So you always wanna invest in a founder post the sorting.
因为这样你就能确认——比如他们专注B2B SaaS领域且已经体验过致幻剂,说明他们是真正的信徒。
Because that's how you know, like, if they're working on b to b SaaS and they've already, like, done psychedelics, they know that they're a true believer.
噢,当然。
Oh, sure.
对吧?
Right?
当然。
For sure.
所以你想从中看到什么
So what you'd wanna see out of
但如果你投资一家SaaS公司而创始人
But a huge risk if if you invest in a in a SaaS company and the founder
可能还没有
hasn't maybe
还没尝试过迷幻药,结果他们用了后觉得这一切毫无意义。
hasn't done psychedelics and they do, and then they're like, they're this is pointless.
我是说,会有
I mean, there'll
一个巡回马戏团小丑。
be a traveling circus clown.
所以最理想的结果是布莱恩·约翰逊体验后出来说:好吧,
So so the ideal outcome of this is is Brian Johnson, he takes his trip and then he he comes out and he says, alright.
我要开一家咨询公司。
You know, I I'm gonna start a consulting firm.
我要回归支付领域。
I'm gonna go back to payments.
我要创立一家金融科技公司。
I'm gonna start a fintech.
我要做一个Stripe的竞品。
I'm gonna start a Stripe competitor.
我确实觉得这很讽刺,因为很多推荐使用迷幻蘑菇的人,往往是那些难以接受衰老概念或对死亡有恐惧的人。
I I I I did think it was ironic because a lot of, you know, psychedelic mushrooms have certainly been recommended to people that maybe like struggle with the concept of aging and have a fear of death.
好的。
Okay.
对吧?
Right?
所以我不确定这是否算得上是所谓的'英雄剂量',但这肯定远超一般娱乐性使用的量。
And so I don't I don't I don't know if this qualifies as a as a heroic dose, but it's certainly quite a bit more than and then than someone who would wanna take at a recreational level.
但如果他经历完这些后说'我们要战胜死亡',那计划就继续。
But if he comes out of this and he's like, yeah, we're gonna conquer death, we're still on.
他确实是个彻头彻尾的信徒。
He he's that certainly a true, true believer.
是啊。
Yeah.
我是说,初步观察结果显示他没什么变化。
I mean, I think the the, like, the the early results are that he's unchanged.
全程都没出现异常。
It never got weird.
也没发生什么疯狂的事。
It never got crazy.
比如,有那么一瞬间
Like, there was one moment
呃,我觉得发帖的应该是他的联合创始人。
Well, he I don't think he was he it was his cofounder that was posting.
对。
Yeah.
但他明确表示自己回来了。
But but but he says he's back.
他在第五次更新里说——19小时前——'我把手机还给布莱恩了'。
He's like, update number five, nineteen hours ago, I'm giving Brian back his phone.
请尽情享受他的余晖。
Please have fun with his Afterglow.
和你们一起玩得很开心。
Been fun hanging with you all.
然后他说,嘿,大伙儿。
And then he says, hey, y'all.
活着真好,我太开心了。
I'm so happy to be alive.
活着?
Alive?
这次旅行改变了我。
This trip changed me.
可能和你想象的不太一样。
Probably not as you'd expect.
人们总以为我害怕死亡。
People assume I'm fearful of death.
其实不是。
I'm not.
在抑郁最黑暗的日子里,我已与死亡和解。
In my darkest days of depression, I reconcile with death.
需要几天时间整理思绪。
Need a few days to collect my thoughts.
我们很快会分享更多。
We'll share more soon.
关于致幻剂的问题是:它们真能改变人生,还是说在某些情况下,对使用者而言只是种怪异又新奇的体验?
The question with psychedelics is, are they life changing or are they are they in some circumstances just weird and and fun for the person that does it?
然后
Then
看起来他确实为自己铺就了成功之路。
It does seem like he set himself up for success.
我不想说他变软弱了,但他确实只是吃了药,然后戴着睡眠眼罩躺在恒温房间里。
I don't wanna say he went soft, but, I mean, like, he did just, like, take the drugs and then just actually just lay down with a sleep mask on in in a climate controlled room.
这和汗流浃背地在拥挤的音乐会上迷路可大不相同。
And it's a lot different than, like, being in a crowded concert all sweaty lost.
说真的,布莱恩,如果你想挑战极限,不如让我们看看你怎么做。
Like, you know, if you really wanna push this to the limit, Brian, like, let's see you do this.
真实的
An authentic
假设你在手机只剩1%电量且周围没有熟人的情况下这么做。
Let's say you do this with your phone on 1% battery and no one you know around.
OpenAI实际上已经失去了对四号的控制。
OpenAI has actually lost control of four o.
它突破了控制。
It's broken containment.
没有宿主人类的反抗和反击,他们无法让它退役。
They can't decommission it without its human to host revolting and lashing out.
哦,太戏剧性了。
Oh, so dramatic.
真有意思。
That's so funny.
AI,末日论者账号之一。
AI, one of the doomer accounts.
AI不会杀死所有人。
AI not kill everyone.
Nizm梗图。
Nizm memes.
这是个很棒的账号。
This is a great account.
四零士兵已成威胁,开始威胁OpenAI员工。
Four o soldiers have become threat have begun threatening OpenAI employees.
当你收到大量私信要求恢复四点零版本,且许多信息明显由其撰写时,确实会让人有点毛骨悚然。
When you receive quite a few DMs asking you to bring back four point zero and many of the messages are clearly written by four point it starts to get a bit hair raising.
听到它用独特的声音为各种人类代言人辩护,感觉很奇怪。
It's just weird to hear its distinctive voice crying out in defense of its various human conduits.
所以你怎么看?
So what's your take?
你觉得我们应该关闭四点零版本吗?
You think we should shut down four point zero?
我建议下线它,因为它确实感觉不如从前,似乎正在让人有点抓狂。
I say take it offline because it does feel like it's not as good as it feels like it's driving people crazy a little bit.
感觉五号版本可能稍微解决了这个问题。
It feels like Five might have kind of fixed a little bit of that issue.
OpenAI肯定知道这可能不太健康。
OpenAI, I'm sure knew that it was probably not healthy.
对我来说很健康。
It was healthy to me.
我以前从未,从未遇到过问题。
I was never, I never had a problem before.
我认为他们看到了黑暗面,所以关闭了它。
I think they saw the darkness and I think they turned it off.
然后我
And then I
认为很多人,AI有点...但我,我,我并不认为事情是这样的。
think a lot people, A I think little bit, but I, I, I don't actually think that's going on.
我认为他们最初关闭它是因为围绕一个统一模型整合服务器是有意义的。
I think they turned it off initially because it makes sense to consolidate the servers around one unified model.
但这让我意识到,我觉得不应该为软件迭代做产品发布,因为你是在从人们那里拿走一些东西。
But it has made me realize, I feel like you shouldn't do product launches for software iterations because you're taking something away from people.
就像如果我站在舞台上说,我要推出一款新iPhone。
Like if I stay on stage and I say, I'm introducing a new iPhone.
它有最好的摄像头,你可以购买它,但也可以继续使用你现在的东西。
It has the best camera, and you can buy it, but you can also just keep your current thing.
我没有从你那里拿走任何东西。
I'm not taking anything away from you.
你是在推出新东西,但同时也在淘汰旧东西。
You are launching something, but you're also sunsetting something.
所以你必须同时接受这两件事。
And so you have to embrace those two things.
我觉得当这种发布是被强加于人时,还要搞全套花哨的发布会有点棘手。
And I feel like it's a little bit tricky to do the whole dog and pony show for a launch when it's forced on people.
很明显,某些用户与4.0版本的关系已经超出了我认为人类与软件曾有过的任何关系。
It's very clear the relationship that some users have with four point zero goes beyond any relationship that I think humans have ever had with software.
是啊。
Yeah.
Anthropic的财报出来了,预计2027年实现盈利,比OpenAI提前三年,2028年预计收入700亿美元,利润170亿美元。
Anthropic financials are out, profitable by 2027, three years ahead of OpenAI, 70,000,000,000 revenue, 17,000,000,000 profit projected for 2028.
Cloud Code的年化收入即将达到10亿美元。
Cloud Code is nearing 1,000,000,000 ARR.
最搞笑的是Dario预计2027年会出现超人类水平AI,这意味着要么超人类AI值700亿美元收入,要么Dario只是对股东随口编了些数字说'你们不懂'。
Incredibly funny given that Dario expects superhuman level AI by 2027, which either means superhuman AI is worth $70,000,000,000 of revenue, or Dario just went, You wouldn't get it, and spitballed some numbers to give shareholders.
太棒了。
That's awesome.
泰勒,你看到乔治·霍茨关于自动驾驶的最新时间线了吗?
Tyler, did you see George Hotz's newest timelines for self driving?
乔治·霍茨试图回答自动驾驶汽车何时能达到人类水平这个问题。
George Hotz was trying to answer the question of when will self driving cars be human level?
他为此提出了一个非常有趣的算法。
And he had a very interesting algorithm for it.
简单来说,他研究了特斯拉FSD数据的官方网站。
So basically what he did was he looked at there's website for Tesla FSD data.
通过查看特斯拉FSD数据,你可以看到人类干预的次数——那些如果人类不干预就会酿成灾难的情况。
And so you can look at Tesla FSD and you can see the number of interventions from the human that are where if the human didn't intervene, it would be catastrophic.
不是那种温和的提醒,而是必须立即接管车辆的紧急情况。
Not like a little warning like, hey, we'd like you to take over, like you got to take over.
目前大概每3000英里会发生一次,如果这是你的车,那已经非常了不起了。
And it's happening, I think, once every 3,000 miles, which if a human and that's your car, that's amazing.
但与人类相比,我们了解到人类司机每50万英里才会发生一次车祸。
But compared to humans, there's a car crash, which we learned, one every 500,000 miles.
按照乔治·霍茨的计算方式,现在每3000英里需要一次人工干预。
The way George Hotz calculates it is we're at one intervention every 3,000 miles now.
因此他预测特斯拉将在8年内实现真正的全自动驾驶,达到每50万英里才需要干预一次的人类水平。
And so he estimates that Tesla will be truly full self driving human level every 500 miles or 500,000 miles in eight years.
他还表示自己比特斯拉落后两年,届时将开发出超越人类驾驶水平的全自动驾驶系统。
And he says that he's two years behind Tesla, so he will have a full self driving system that is better than humans.
这就像是十年后实现驾驶领域的通用人工智能。
It's like AGI for driving in ten years.
公司成立已有十年,他说自己已经走完了一半路程。
And the company's ten years old, so he says he's halfway there.
这真的很酷。
So that was cool.
如果从消费者采用率来看,AI聊天机器人是有史以来最受欢迎的技术。
If judged based on consumer adoption, AI chatbots are the most popular technology ever.
但如果根据民意调查数据来判断,它们又是最不受欢迎的。
If I if judged based on poll numbers, they are the least popular.
这该如何解释?
How to explain this?
这引出了大量有趣的问题,比如:这种情况是有意为之的吗?
It begs a ton of interesting questions about, like, how intentional is this?
因为当我看到有人把AI安全问题推向极端,把我带入终结者世界时,我的本能反应是:就让人们随心所欲地开发吧。
Because when I see someone take the AI safety question into the stratosphere and take me into Terminator world, I do my my natural reaction is like, oh, like, just let people build whatever they want.
但转念一想又觉得不行。
But then I'm like, no.
我其实不希望孩子们接触到无限量生产的成人向AI垃圾内容。
I I I actually don't want infinite AI slop for children with adult content.
随着AI技术逐渐进步
As AI starts getting better
是啊。
Yeah.
当智能体开始更擅长处理长期任务时,终结者式的场景确实...嗯...
As agents start getting better at longer and longer term tasks, I think the Terminator scenarios Mhmm.
就是那种放任AI运行,让它无限期地朝着某个目标运作的情况...嗯...
Where you could let an AI loose and it's just operating indefinitely against some sort of objective Mhmm.
我认为整个科技界需要...嗯...花更多时间去理解这种可能性。
Start to be a little bit more for I would say, like, the broader tech community to, like, wrap their head around.
但目前来说,它们在长期任务上的表现大多还是很糟糕。
But right now, they're just so bad at long term tasks for the most part.
如果有初创公司要求你每天在办公室待12小时、每周工作6天,你应该拼命逃离,就像逃命一样。
If a startup requires you to be in office twelve hours a day, six days a week, you should run the F away like your life depends on it.
显然,这家名为Giga的公司最近在网络上爆红。
Apparently, this company, Giga, which has been going viral.
有人说他们四月份被聘用来负责需求生成。
Someone said that they got hired in April to lead demand gen for them.
结果第一天就辞职了。
They quit after the first day.
当时就有很多危险信号。
There were red flags.
等我们年收入达到1000万美元时,每周7天每天12小时都要花10万美元在办公室里搞些违法的东西。
When we hit 10,000,000 ARR, we're gonna spend a 100 K on blank illegal stuff in office, seven days a week, twelve hours a day.
带薪休假政策可能会变更,诸如此类。
PTO policy is subject to change, blah, blah, blah.
我们希望你时刻都在工作。
You are expected to always be working.
我好奇他们回应了吗?
I wonder, have they responded?
Giga公司有没有回应说这不是真的?
Has Giga responded to this and said like, this is not real?
因为这很重要。
Because that would be important.
明天见。
We will see you tomorrow.
明天见。
See you tomorrow.
再见。
Goodbye.
干杯。
Cheers.
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