TBPN - 🟠 YC演示日,Paul Graham加盟,AWS会从谷歌购买TPU吗? | Harj Taggar、Paul Graham与Jessica Livingston、Richard Wang、Philip Ho、Ali Attar、Kurush Dubash等 封面

🟠 YC演示日,Paul Graham加盟,AWS会从谷歌购买TPU吗? | Harj Taggar、Paul Graham与Jessica Livingston、Richard Wang、Philip Ho、Ali Attar、Kurush Dubash等

🟠 YC Demo Day, Paul Graham Joins, Will AWS Buy TPUs From Google? | Harj Taggar, Paul Graham & Jessica Livingston, Richard Wang, Philip Ho, Ali Attar, Kurush Dubash & More

本集简介

(01:23) - AWS会从谷歌购买TPU吗? (20:51) - 𝕏时间线反应 (46:33) - Y Combinator管理合伙人、Triplebyte和Auctomatic联合创始人Harj Taggar探讨了初创企业生态的演变,指出向政府机构和财富500强企业销售产品正变得愈发容易。他强调路径选择取决于产品类型,并提到AI进步为初创企业直接获取大客户创造了新机遇。Taggar还观察到企业正采用AI原生全栈模式,将AI深度整合至核心业务而非仅为现有公司提供AI工具的趋势。 (59:39) - Richard Wang是Clad Labs联合创始人兼CEO,该公司正在开发"CHAD:脑洞IDE"——一个融合编码与休闲工作流的AI驱动开发环境。 (01:06:32) - Philip Ho创立的Absurd是家旧金山初创公司,专注于大规模生成AI驱动的品牌与效果广告。 (00:00) - 通过多智能体AI系统在约72小时内完成脚本生成、制作和剪辑的影视级营销视频。其作品已获市场验证:据报道某条首发视频观看量超百万,系列广告平均收获数十万次自然流量。 (01:18:23) - Lightberry联合创始人Ali Attar阐述公司开发人形机器人操作系统的使命,该系统通过自然语言交互消除编程需求。他重点介绍了与Unitree等制造商的合作,使机器人能自主完成活动主持等任务。Attar还强调机器人在安防等领域的多样化应用潜力,展望未来机器人将无缝融入公共空间与人互动。 (01:29:59) - Dome联合创始人兼CEO Kurush Dubash解释其统一API如何整合预测市场,使用户能跨平台同步交易分析数据。他指出客户包括高频交易对冲基金、体育博彩平台和应用开发者,并强调Dome通过聚合碎片化流动性服务专业交易者,同时观察到越来越多针对特定区域或垂直领域的预测市场平台正在涌现。 (01:38:40) - Sorce联合创始人David Alade将这款应用称为"求职版Tinder",用户上传简历后右滑职位,AI代理会自动完成网站申请。他分析当前招聘市场虽仍依赖传统投递,但低效流程亟待变革,并透露Sorce去年促成超2.5万场面试,其增长主要依靠TikTok和Instagram的病毒式传播。 (01:45:23) - Metorial CEO Karim Rahme介绍其平台如何让AI代理安全访问Gmail、SAP等应用数据源,同时为大机构提供关键权限管控。他提到开源版本上线五周即获3600+ GitHub星标和近千周活用户,正与财富500强洽谈大规模部署。Rahme还分享了自己从纽约大学阿布扎比分校毕业,曾领导当地票务初创公司三年的经历。 (01:52:54) - Crunched联合创始人兼COO Michael Sakowski讲述其Excel原生AI分析师如何专为顶级金融人士设计,区别于微软Copilot的泛用性。他举例该软件曾在私募交易中发现1000万英镑估值虚高,并强调客户数据绝不用于训练,提示内容也无法被访问的安全机制。 (02:01:00) - Sava CEO Nimit Maru阐述如何用AI改造信托行业,将信托章程变为可编程基础设施以实现高效合规服务。在出售Fullstack Academy后,他亲历传统信托的落后现状,现在通过实时追踪管理功能让复杂财富规划更普惠。 (02:08:34) - SF Tensor联合创始人Ben Koska说明其平台如何协调云服务商优化GPU分配,让研究者专注AI模型训练。他们专攻训练环节的市场空白,客户从个体学者到攻克药物发现等前沿课题的大型实验室,并支持企业用专有数据增强基础模型。 (02:15:51) - 曾任职NASA和Orbital的航天工程师Henry Kwan介绍Icarus研发的6万英尺高空长航时太阳能无人机,相比卫星更具近距离和成本优势。初期聚焦国防应用的他,展望这种平流层无人机在通信增强和监测等领域的广阔前景。 (02:24:20) - YC支持的Locus联合创始人Cole Dermott讨论其AI代理支付基础设施,通过预算权限设置实现服务自主采购。目前主要用户是开发自治代理的程序员,随着技术信任度提升将向普通消费者扩展,平台已处理约3500笔交易并支撑80个项目。 (02:28:06) - Paul Graham与Jessica Livingston。Graham是英裔美国计算机科学家,YC联合创始人,这个顶级孵化器投资过Airbnb、Dropbox等3000多家初创企业。Livingston作为YC联合创始人是现代创业文化最具影响力人物之一,将YC从小实验发展为全球最成功孵化器,著有《创业者》并长期支持早期创始人。 TBPN.com由以下机构支持: Ramp - https://ramp.com Figma - https://figma.com Vanta - https://vanta.com Linear - https://linear.app Eight Sleep - https://eightsleep.com/tbpn Wander - https://wander.com/tbpn Public - https:...

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您正在收看TBPN电视台。

You're watching TBPN.

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我们正在TBPN UltraD0000现场直播。

We are live from the TBPN UltraDump.

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今天是2025年12月3日,星期三。

It's Wednesday, 12/03/2025.

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您可能以为我们是在旧金山的YC演示日现场。

You probably thought we were at YC demo day in San Francisco.

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我们明天得去纽约市。

We gotta go to New York City tomorrow.

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我们要采访吉姆·克莱默,还有其他一些人。

We're interviewing Jim Kramer, a bunch of other folks.

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今天就要。

Today.

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其实,是的。

Actually, yeah.

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今天出发。

Leaving today.

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我们今天正在旅行,所以很遗憾无法在旧金山的派对殿堂现场,但我们仍为各位准备了大量YC演示日的精彩内容。

We are traveling today, so we couldn't, we, unfortunately, couldn't be in San Francisco, at the Palace of Party Rounds, but we still have a ton of YC Demo Day content lined up for you folks.

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11点45分将有Harsh Tigar登场。

We got Harsh Tigar coming on at 11:45.

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接着是Clad Labs,Chad IDE的开发者,以及那些制造争议热点的公司。

Then we got Clad Labs, the chat makers of Chad IDE, the Rage bait companies.

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没错。

That yeah.

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这家公司自称——用他们自己的话说——是'脑残IDE'的创造者。

The company that sparked, they by their own by their own definition, they call themselves the brain rot IDE.

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我们将深入调查这背后的故事。

We're getting to the bottom of that story.

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此外还将采访约10到20位其他创始人。

And then we're talking to, probably 10 or 20 other founders.

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我们会询问他们如何构建业务、正在开发什么产品、观察到哪些趋势。

Gonna be asking them how they're building their businesses, what they're building, what they're seeing.

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与YC的优秀团队交流总是充满乐趣。

It's always a fun time to check-in with the good folks over at, at YC.

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当然,我们也会向您介绍ramp.com。

And, of course, we will be telling you about ramp.com.

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时间就是金钱。

Time is money.

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两者都要节省。

Save both.

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轻松使用企业卡、账单支付、会计系统等更多功能。

Easy use corporate cards, bill pay, accounting, and a whole lot more.

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我还将为您介绍Fall——面向开发者的生成式媒体平台,可使用无服务器GPU和按需集群来开发与微调模型。

And I will also be telling you about Fall, the generative media platform for developers, develop and fine tune models with serverless GPUs and on demand clusters.

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所以今天,我撰写了关于AWS是否会从谷歌购买TPU的文章。

So, today, I wrote about will AWS buy TPUs from Google?

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在《华尔街日报》商业与金融版块的首页,他们正在对Tranium芯片大加赞赏。

In the, in the front page of The Wall Street Journal's business and finance section, they're singing the Tranium chips praises.

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亚马逊芯片。

Amazon chips.

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亚马逊的芯片对英伟达构成威胁。

Amazon's chips pose risk to NVIDIA.

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整个星期我们都在与人交流。

The whole week, we've been talking to people.

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这是标题党吗?

Is that clickbait?

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我不知道。

I don't know.

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嗯,我们会弄清楚的。

Well, we're gonna find out.

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我们拭目以待。

We'll see.

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这看起来确实不太妙,你知道的,市场上出现更多竞争并不乐观。

It it certainly doesn't seem, you know, good to have more competition in the in the market.

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昨天Tae Kim上节目讨论了,NVIDIA实力雄厚,确实不会面临来自TPU威胁的重大阻力。

And Tae Kim came on the show yesterday to talk about, how NVIDIA was strong and and really was not going to face significant headwinds from the TPU threat.

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当然,Semi Analysis的Dylan Patel写了一篇,详细介绍了TPU v7相当不错,Anthropic会采购一些。

Of course, Dylan Patel over at Semi Analysis wrote a 10,000 word piece all about how the TPU v seven was pretty good, and Anthropic was gonna be buying some.

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他们还打算租赁一些,可能还有一些

And they were also gonna be leasing some, and they maybe had some

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真的很难。

really gate.

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这引发了NVIDIA多头的大量反对意见。

And that sparked a lot of backlash from, NVIDIA bulls.

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那些与AMD关系密切的人对此也感到不满。

And also folks who are really tied to AMD, they're upset about it.

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如果谷歌最终凭借TPU获胜,会有很多很多输家。

There's a lot of there's a lot of losers if Google winds up winning with TPU.

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所以那些输家们显然出来反击了。

And so the the the losers came out to, to fight, apparently.

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但让我们先看看亚马逊Trainium三号发布的具体事实。

But let's read through let's just get the facts down from Amazon's, Trainium three launch.

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我们昨天节目邀请了AWS的CEO,我向他提出了这个问题。

We, of course, had the CEO of AWS on the show yesterday, and I asked him about this question.

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亚马逊会购买TPU吗?

Will Amazon be buying TPU?

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我觉得这是个有趣的问题。

I think that's an interesting question.

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但首先,让我们看看亚马逊对他们自己的AI有什么实际规划。

But first, let's see what Amazon's actually planning with their own AI Speak clearly.

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这里没什么悬念。

Didn't no cliffhanger here.

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他没有给出肯定或否定的回答。

He did not say yes or no.

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他只是

He just

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某种程度上我觉得...我认为你可以从蛛丝马迹中读出决策将如何制定,尽管目前决策尚未最终确定,不过我们会详细讨论这个。

kind of I think I I think you can read between the tea leaves and understand how the decision will be made even though the decision has not been made yet, but we'll go through that.

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所以,亚马逊成为了最新一家进军英伟达领域的大型科技公司。

So, amazon.com is the latest big tech company to muscle in on Nvidia's turf.

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给我来个秋季的音效提示

Give me a sound cue from the fall

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这个音效怎么样?

How sound about this?

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这就对了。

There we go.

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没错。

That's right.

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周二,亚马逊网络服务宣布正式推出其第三代定制AI训练芯片Trainium3,据称其速度是前代人工智能芯片的四倍,实现了四倍速提升。

On Tuesday, Amazon Web Services announced the public launch of its training three custom AI chip, which it says is four times as fast as its previous generation of artificial intelligence chips, four x speed up.

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这实际上意义非常重大。

That's actually very significant.

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这太棒了。

That's great.

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公司表示,Tranium 3由AWS的Annapurna实验室生产——这家公司很有趣,十年前以大约3.5亿或3.5亿美元被收购。

The company said Tranium three produced in by AWS's Annapurna Labs, fascinating company, acquired a decade ago for around 350,000,000,000 or 350,000,000.

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所以这实际上是一笔相当小的收购。

So it's pretty small acquisition, actually.

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3.5亿美元。

350,000,000.

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在AI领域,你永远无法预料。

In AI, you never know.

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但在那时候,你根本不会想到要创办一家定制芯片公司。

But back then You never you started a custom silicon company.

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那时候能勉强达到九位数的退出估值就很不错了。

You could barely clear 9 figures on the way out the door.

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但Interperno实验室长期以来一直在为亚马逊开发定制芯片。

But Interperno Labs has been, working on custom silicon for Amazon for a long time.

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AWS确实拥有定制CPU,用于加速基于CPU的工作负载。

They actually do have a custom CPU at AWS, to accelerate CPU based workloads.

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过去几年里,他们一直在研发GPU或者ASIC芯片,用于加速工作负载。

Then for the last few years, they've been working on GPUs or or, you know, ASICs for, accelerated workloads.

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因此这种定制芯片设计业务——Annapurna实验室——相比使用同等GPU的系统,能将AI模型的训练和运营成本降低多达50%。

And so this custom chip, design business, Annapurna Labs, can reduce the cost of training and operating AI models by up to 50% compared with systems that use equivalent GPUs.

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这些芯片旨在为软件开发人员提供更强大的计算能力支持,比如我们节目嘉宾、初创公司Descartes的联合创始人兼首席执行官Dean Leitersdorf。

The chips are meant to provide a stronger backbone of computing power for software developers like Dean Leiters, Leitersdorf, the cofounder and co and executive chief executive officer of the startup, Descartes, who we had on the show.

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而Descartes目前的估值已达到31亿美元。

And Descartes, that is valued now at $3,100,000,000.

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太棒了。

Let's go.

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如果你不记得的话,Descartes曾做客我们节目,Dean在访谈过程中实时演示了AI视频生成技术。

So if you don't remember Descartes came on, and Dean, was doing live AI video generation while he was doing the interview with us.

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那真是太疯狂了。

It was really crazy.

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是啊。

Yeah.

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他基本上就是那样。

He basically yeah.

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是实时的。

It was real time.

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没错。

Yeah.

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他看起来像是在电子游戏里,但整个过程几乎没有延迟。

He looked like he was in a video game, but it was happening with, little to no delay.

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非常非常酷的演示。

Really, really cool demo.

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确实。

Yeah.

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在我们继续之前,让我介绍一下Restream。

Before we move on, let me tell you about Restream.

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一次直播,30多个分发平台。

One livestream, 30 plus destinations.

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如需多平台直播,请访问restream.com。

If you want a multistream, go to restream.com.

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他表示,在尝试了包括英伟达处理器在内的多款竞品芯片后,他们公司通过Tranium三芯片取得了突破性进展。

So, he said his company had a breakthrough enabled by a Tranium three chip by the Tranium three chip after trying out several other competitor chips, including NVIDIA's processors.

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来自这家旧金山公司的数十名程序员和AI研究人员历时四个月,试图训练Descartes旗下名为Lucy的旗舰AI视频生成应用版本,以实现无卡顿的实时画面渲染。

Dozens of programmers and AI researchers from his San Francisco based company had been trying four months to train a version of Descartes' flagship AI powered, video generation application known as Lucy, that would be able to render footage in real time without bugs or hiccups.

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AWS在与这家初创公司会面并对创始人印象深刻后,为Descartes提供了Tranium三芯片的早期试用权限。

AWS gave Descartes early access to Training three after meeting with the startup and being impressed with the founders.

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当时公司团队已在硅谷租住的房子里进行了为期两周的编程马拉松,期间他还带我们参观了Wizard Land——一个AI生成的科幻世界。

The company was two weeks into a marathon coding session in a rented house in Silicon Valley, which I think he took us on a tour of while he was in, Wizard Land, an AI generated sci fi world.

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非常有趣。

It was very fun.

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他的几个员工在他身后疯狂庆祝。

That a few of his employees were celebrating wildly behind him.

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等等。

Wait.

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哦,那好像是个引用,我想那是指我提到的实际通话内容。

Oh, that's like a ref I think that's a reference to to the actual call that I'm referring to.

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奇怪。

Weird.

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读这份日志感觉非常诡异。

This is very weird reading the journal.

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希望如此。

I hope yeah.

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我经历过这种情况。

I've I've experienced this.

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当我看到它成功运行时,我看到四个人立刻开始蹦跳起来,迪恩说道。

The moment that I saw it worked, I saw four people just start jumping up and down, said Dean.

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接下来的问题是,我们最快能多快将其推向市场并开始用它改变行业?

The next question was how fast can we get it to market and start changing industries with it?

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Trainium三代的发布是对主导GPU市场的英伟达发起的最新一轮全面攻势。

The launch of Trainium three is the latest broadside against NVIDIA, which dominates the GPU market.

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近几个月来的一系列交易引起了投资者的关注,表明更多AI公司正寻求通过从非英伟达企业购买芯片及其他硬件来实现供应商多元化。

A flurry of deals in recent months have caught the attention of investors in indicating that more AI firms are seeking to diversify their suppliers by buying chips and other hardware from companies other than NVIDIA.

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因此,Meta Platforms正与谷歌洽谈购买价值数十亿美元的先进AI处理器TPU,而OpenAI已与英伟达的竞争对手AMD以及博通达成协议。

So Meta Platforms is in talk with Google to buy billions of dollars worth of advanced AI processors known as TPUs, and OpenAI has struck deals with rival, NVIDIA rival AMD as well as Broadcom.

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所以,笛卡尔实验室能在Trainium上取得好结果确实非常令人兴奋,这显然太棒了。

And so, very exciting that Descartes got good results out of the Trainium That's awesome, obviously.

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我相信亚马逊的每位员工都为此付出了巨大努力。

I'm sure everyone over at Amazon has been working very hard on that.

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同时我们听说Anthropic可能对Trainium的体验不太理想,这或许是他们更多转向TPU的原因。

At the same time, we've heard that Anthropic maybe didn't have that great of an experience with Tranium, and that's why maybe they're moving over to TPU a little bit more.

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但尽管亚马逊仍是主要

But Even though Amazon remains a major

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投资者持有者。

Investor holder.

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确实如此。

Exactly.

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是的。

Yeah.

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在Anthropic公司。

In Anthropic.

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所以我的问题是,AWS会从谷歌购买TPU吗?

And so my question is, will AWS buy TPU from Google?

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我问过马特·加曼这个问题。

I asked Matt Garman that question.

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我确实

I do

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问我这个问题。

ask me that question.

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是的。

Yes.

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我说过,他们会被人嘲笑的。

I said, they will be mocked.

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他们会被嘲笑的。

They would be mocked.

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他们会被嘲笑的。

They would be mocked.

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这太荒谬了。

Which is ridiculous.

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我们稍后会讨论为什么这很荒谬。

And we'll get to why that's ridiculous.

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首先,嘲笑任何人关于他们半导体供应链或数据中心设备的事情本身就很好笑。

I mean, first off, it's it's it's just it's it's funny to mock, anyone for something, like, you related to their semiconductor supply chain and what they rack in their massive data centers.

Speaker 0

AWS是个庞大的业务。

AWS is a massive business.

Speaker 0

我啊,是的。

Where I Yeah.

Speaker 1

我只是想说,拜托,拜托,我的死对头,能不能给我的数据中心弄些芯片,好跟你的数据中心竞争?

I just say is, like, please, please, my my archrival, can I please get some chips for my data center to compete with your data center?

Speaker 0

好吧。

Okay.

Speaker 0

那么,我们来看看AWS CEO马特·加明昨天在TPPN上说了什么,因为我问他:你们会购买TPU吗?

Well, let's actually go to what Matt Garmin, the CEO of AWS, said on TPPN yesterday because I asked him, will you be buying TPUs?

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他说,嘿。

And he said, hey.

Speaker 0

听着。

Look.

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我们对Trainium非常兴奋,我认为它——我们相信它拥有巨大潜力。

We're very excited about Trainium, and I think it has and we think it has enormous potential.

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我们绝对认为优化该技术栈的每一层都有益处。

And we absolutely think there's a benefit to optimizing every layer of that stack.

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所以,你知道,人们都在时间线上开玩笑。

And so he, you know, people were joking on the timeline.

Speaker 0

你知道吗?

You know?

Speaker 0

哦,有个新的Trainium芯片,有人就说,所有五个使用Trainium的人都欣喜若狂,你知道,因为有这个新消息。

Oh, there's this new Tranium chip, and somebody was like, all five people using Trainium are ecstatic, you know, that that there's that there's this new news.

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但是,可能Ballistic在这里说,亚马逊太不擅长炒作了。

But, probably ballistic here says, Amazon's so bad at hype.

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Trainium通过Bedrock被5亿人使用,但他们的营销团队就是不行。

Trainium is used by 500,000,000 people through Bedrock, but their marketing team just can't.

Speaker 0

AWS被低估了,等等等等,他显然对这只股票看涨。

AWS is undervalued, blah blah blah, and he's obviously a bull on the stock.

Speaker 0

但有趣的是,就像,它确实

But what's interesting is that, like, it is it

Speaker 1

我今天见到了他们的一些GTM团队成员。

is I met some of their GTM staff today.

Speaker 1

这么说吧,你有的是时间以低价积累股票。

Let's just say you'll have years to accumulate stock at cheap prices.

Speaker 0

有道理,伙计。

Fair, buddy.

Speaker 0

所以,是的,即便Tranium最终只适用于某个特定领域,显然也还是有价值的。

And so and so, like, yes, there there obviously is value even if Tranium winds up being for a particular niche.

Speaker 0

比如说,可能是用于实时视频处理。

Like, maybe it's for real time video.

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也许这就是它真正擅长的领域。

Like, maybe that's the maybe that's what it gets really good at.

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它在扩散模型上可能会表现非常出色。

It could get really good at diffusion.

Speaker 0

它可能会变得非常出色。

It could get really good.

Speaker 0

而且它不需要仅仅局限于某个领域。

And it doesn't need to just be Yeah.

Speaker 0

比如,你的ASIC芯片可以不断优化再优化

Like, you your your ASIC can be honed and honed and honed to

Speaker 1

适应工作需求

fit up work.

Speaker 1

实时视频这很有趣,笛卡尔公司正专注于这个领域 嗯哼

Real time video that's interesting, something that Descartes is focused on Mhmm.

Speaker 1

正在与直播主合作 嗯哼

Is working with livestreamers Mhmm.

Speaker 1

特别是在Twitch平台上

Specifically on Twitch.

Speaker 1

是的

Yeah.

Speaker 1

亚马逊拥有Twitch

Amazon owns Twitch.

Speaker 0

哦,那挺酷的

Oh, that'd cool.

Speaker 1

这种合作关系因此显得更加有趣。

That that makes that, that kind of partnership, more interesting.

Speaker 0

我喜欢这个。

I like that.

Speaker 0

所以很明显,强调这一点是有价值的,比如:

And and so but so so so, obviously, there is value to saying, hey.

Speaker 0

如果你使用AWS,就能获得Bedrock和一些专门为Trainium优化的服务。

If you go to AWS, you can get Bedrock and some services that have been fine tuned specifically for Trainium.

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如果你深入使用整个技术栈,就能获得极佳的性能,因为我们拥有从上到下都非常高效的完整体系。

You go all the way down, you're gonna get very good performance because we have a stack from top to bottom that's very efficient.

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但与此同时,如果你想做的事情不在训练生态系统范围内,可能会遇到困难。

But at the same time, if you're trying to do something that's sort of, like, not within the training ecosystem, you might have a rough go.

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你可能最终会使用不同的芯片。

You might wind up on a different chip.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

但他确实说过一些话。

But he did say something.

Speaker 0

他说,我们也将为客户提供选择支持。

He said, we are going to support choice for our customers as well.

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因此我们会继续提供NVIDIA的GPU作为选项。

And so we'll continue to offer GPUs from NVIDIA as an example.

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我们与NVIDIA保持着非常紧密的合作关系。

And we'll have and we have a very tight partnership there.

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我认为这种客户选择的理念很重要。

So this idea of customer choice, I think, is important.

Speaker 0

如果你回顾杰夫·贝索斯的话,他说过我们不会过度关注竞争对手。

And if you go back to Jeff Bezos, he said, we're not competitor obsessed.

Speaker 0

那种把谷歌视为头号对手的想法,并不符合亚马逊的企业基因。

This idea that Google is their archrival, that's not in Amazon's DNA.

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杰夫·贝索斯说过,我们不会过度关注竞争对手。

Jeff Bezos said, we're not competitor obsessed.

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我们痴迷于客户。

We're customer obsessed.

Speaker 0

我们痴迷于客户。

We're customer obsessed.

Speaker 0

所以如果客户说,听着。

And so if the customer says, look.

Speaker 0

你们以3.5亿美元收购Annapurna Labs真是太棒了。

It's great that you acquired Annapurna Labs for $350,000,000.

Speaker 0

我对你们在Tranium三号项目上的成果感到非常满意。

I'm really happy with what you've done with Tranium three.

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这对我来说行不通。

It doesn't work for me.

Speaker 0

我是客户,我要你们在服务器或数据中心里给我提供NVIDIA GPU,或者给我提供TPU。

I'm the customer, and I want you to give me an NVIDIA GPU in your server or or or in your data center, or I want you to give me a TPU in your server.

Speaker 0

他们可能会这么做,因为这确实符合亚马逊的基因。

They might do that because that's actually in Amazon's DNA.

Speaker 1

是啊。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

那么接下来的问题是,谷歌有可能把TPU卖给亚马逊吗?

And then the follow-up question is, is there any world where Google sells TPU to Amazon?

Speaker 0

也许吧。

Maybe.

Speaker 0

我不知道。

I don't know.

Speaker 0

实际上他们已经展开合作了。

Already, they are partnering.

Speaker 0

就像最近曝光的另一个合作项目,本·汤普森在Insta Techery上专门写过这件事,你们应该去订阅他的专栏。

Like, this was another partnership that came out, that Ben Thompson actually wrote about in Insta Techery, which you should go subscribe to.

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另外,AWS和谷歌云刚刚宣布达成合作。

So, separately, there was an announcement of an AWS partnership with Google Cloud.

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虽然亚马逊没有直接采购TPU,但他们正在帮助客户在两家的计算平台之间建立私有高速链路,将开通时间从数周缩短到几分钟。

Now they aren't buying TPUs, but what they're doing is they're enabling customers to establish private high speed links between the two companies' computing platforms in minutes instead of weeks.

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这里的大体意思是,谷歌拥有一些惊人的AI能力,而客户目前在AWS上难以匹敌。

And so the general here the general idea here is that Google has some amazing AI capabilities that customers are just struggling to match on AWS at this point.

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微软那边情况也类似,因为在Azure上你能访问OpenAI模型,而这些在AWS上可能用不了。

And the same thing is happening on Microsoft as well because on Azure, you have access to OpenAI models that you might not have access to on on AWS.

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所以即使你的整个基础设施都在AWS上,你可能要不断在GCP之间来回切换,或者整天在AWS上反复横跳,想着'哦我得去AWS那边'。

And so even though your whole infrastructure might be on AWS, you might be going back and forth to GCP constantly, or you might be going back and forth to AWS all the time being like, oh, I gotta go over to AWS.

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我得回去回去。

I gotta go gotta go back.

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我得去Azure,回AWS,再回Azure,再回AWS。

I gotta gotta go Azure, back to AWS, back to Azure, back to AWS.

Speaker 0

于是亚马逊终于表态说,嘿。

And so Amazon finally just said like, hey.

Speaker 0

听着。

Look.

Speaker 0

我们建立了合作伙伴关系,就是要专门搭建一条管道把这两个系统连接起来。

We have a partnership, we're just gonna create a, like, a a dedicated pipe that put puts these two systems together.

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企业过去常将AI视为应用程序中的一个特殊模块,因此在不同云平台间切换以获取最佳效果是可以接受的。

And and so companies used to think about AI as a special piece of their application, so it would be fine to bounce around to another cloud to get the best possible results.

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但我相信,对于下一代企业——今天我们可能会在YC演示日上采访一些专注于AI的公司——

But if the next generation of companies, I'm sure we'll talk to some of the AI focused YC Demo Day companies today about this

Speaker 1

希望至少有一家吧。

I hope there's at least one.

Speaker 0

希望至少有一家公司在做与AI相关的事情。

I hope there's at least one company that's doing something with AI.

Speaker 0

那将会是个真正的惊喜。

That would be a real treat.

Speaker 0

不过

But

Speaker 1

提醒刚加入的观众:YC演示日报道将在30分钟后开始。

And if you're just tuning in, YC demo day coverage starts in thirty minutes.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 1

所以

So

Speaker 0

但过去在不同云服务间切换曾是可行的。

But it so so it used to be fine to bounce around.

Speaker 0

现在的新一代公司,他们可能会根据谁拥有最佳AI产品来做出整个基础设施决策。

Now the next generation companies, they're maybe making their entire infrastructure decision based on who has the best AI products.

Speaker 0

你在笑什么?

What are you laughing at?

Speaker 1

我笑是因为我刚给西蒙发了短信。

I'm laughing because, I texted Simon.

Speaker 2

是啊。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

Turbo Puffer在AWS有个展位。

They have, Turbo Puffer has a booth at AWS.

Speaker 1

我问,Reinvent大会进展如何?

I said, how's it going at Reinvent?

Speaker 1

他说,我不在那里。

And he says, I'm not there.

Speaker 1

我只是开玩笑假装在场,因为风投们不断来展位,然后我们的增长实习生就会说‘哦,西蒙’。

I just make it seem like I'm there as a joke because the VCs keep going to the booth and then our growth intern is like, oh, Simon.

Speaker 1

我不知道。

I don't know.

Speaker 1

我想我在那边看到他了。

I think I saw him over there.

Speaker 1

就这样继续装模作样,同时ARR(年度经常性收入)直线飙升。

Just continuing continuing to mug while while, ARR skyrockets.

Speaker 1

向Turbo Puffer的增长实习生Will致敬,他在Reinvent大会上坚守阵地。

Shout out to Will, the growth intern at Turbo Puffer holding it down at, at Reinvent.

Speaker 0

太棒了。

That's fantastic.

Speaker 0

我喜欢这样。

I love it.

Speaker 0

不过,让我回到AWS的话题上。

But, so let me go back to AWS.

Speaker 0

亚马逊需要解雇员工并反击,允许AWS与GCP之间高速互联能解决部分问题,但他们会走得更远吗?

Amazon needs to fire, fight back against this and allowing high speed interconnect between AWS and GCP solves a piece of that, but will they go further?

Speaker 0

回到2025年10月21日周二,我在tbpn.com的每日简报中写道,关于增加AI供应链的供应与竞争。

Back on Tuesday, 10/21/2025, I wrote in the daily update in our newsletter at tbpn.com, about increasing supply, competition in AI supply chain.

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以下是我的原话。

Here's what I said.

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我说过,并非供应链的每个环节都能完全商品化。

I said, not every link in the supply chain can be completely commoditized.

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这是关于OpenAI试图从堆栈的每个部分进行双源采购。

This is about OpenAI trying to dual source from every part of the stack.

Speaker 0

没错。

Yep.

Speaker 0

我还说过,NVIDIA现在拥有惊人的权力。

And I said, NVIDIA has an insane amount of power right now.

Speaker 0

他们刚刚将全年收入从2023年的270亿美元增长到2024年的600亿,再到2025年的1300亿美元。

They've just ramped full year revenue from 27,000,000,000 in twenty twenty three to sixty billion in 2024 to 130,000,000,000 in 2025.

Speaker 0

这简直是历史上最大规模之一的收入跃升。

That's, like, one of the greatest revenue ramps at scale in history.

Speaker 0

与此同时,他们的净利润率也从16%增长到了56%。

And then, also, they grew their net profit margin from 16% to 56%.

Speaker 0

这太疯狂了。

That's insane.

Speaker 0

疯狂。

Insane.

Speaker 0

没错。

Yes.

Speaker 0

史上最佳。

GOAT.

Speaker 0

这就是为什么黄仁勋会上乔·罗根的节目,我相信这期节目会很精彩,因为他有很多话题可聊。

That's why Jensen Huang is on Joe Rogan, and I'm sure it's gonna be a fantastic episode because he's got a lot to talk about.

Speaker 0

所有超大规模云服务商和OpenAI,但这会带来问题。

All the hyperscalers and OpenAI, but that creates problems.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

因为现在所有超大规模云服务商和OpenAI都有动机形成某种反英伟达联盟,试图将加速器市场商品化并压低那些利润率。

Because all the hyperscalers and OpenAI are now sort of incentivized to form a bit of an anti NVIDIA alliance to commoditize the accelerator market and drive down those margins a bit.

Speaker 0

所以在1300亿美元营收上实现56%的净利润率。

So 56% net profit margins on a 130,000,000,000 of revenue.

Speaker 0

人们就坐在那里想着:那边有500亿美元的利润啊。

People just sitting there, and they're like, there's $50,000,000,000 of profit over there.

Speaker 0

这足以进行很多收购,而且

Like, that's a lot of acquisitions And

Speaker 1

那是我们的

that's our

Speaker 0

在Perna实验室。

at Perna Labs.

Speaker 1

那是我们的成本。

That's our cost.

Speaker 0

是啊。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

那是我们的成本。

That's our cost.

Speaker 0

就像,你们只是在从这些盘子里分走很大一块蛋糕。

Like, you're just you're you're just eating a lot off of these plates.

Speaker 0

所以我认为Co2很好地解释了当前反NVIDIA联盟的现状。

And so, Co2, I think, has done a good job explaining the current state of the anti video anti NVIDIA alliance.

Speaker 0

他们称之为谷歌综合体,这个说法可能更准确些。

They call it the Google complex, which is probably a little bit better.

Speaker 0

该联盟包括谷歌、博通、天弘、Lumentum和TTM科技。

That consists of Google, Broadcom, Celestica, Lumentum, and TTM Technologies.

Speaker 0

这个联盟与由英伟达、软银、甲骨文、AMD、微软和CoreWeave组成的OpenAI综合体形成鲜明对比。

This coalition stands in contrast to the OpenAI complex that consists of NVIDIA SoftBank, Oracle, AMD, Microsoft, and CoreWeave.

Speaker 0

但你知道他们完全把谁漏掉了吗?

But you know who they left off the chart entirely?

Speaker 0

亚马逊。

Amazon.

Speaker 0

亚马逊并不完全属于这两者中的任何一方。

Amazon doesn't fit neatly into either of this.

Speaker 1

CodeTwo就是喜欢...我觉得他们就是喜欢在任何图表中都漏掉一个重要玩家。

CodeTwo just loves I think I think they just love leaving a major player off any sort of graph or chart that they make.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

他们之前也把谷歌漏掉了。

They they left Google off of their Yeah.

Speaker 0

他们是前40强。

They're top 40.

Speaker 1

40家人工智能公司。

40 AI companies.

Speaker 1

所以我觉得这只是他们有点在开玩笑罢了。

So I think that's just a little that's just that's just them messing around a little bit.

Speaker 0

不过确实如此。

But there's yep.

Speaker 0

我是说,我觉得这描述是准确的。

I mean, I I think it's accurate.

Speaker 0

我喜欢这个说法:亚马逊更接近OpenAI还是谷歌?

I like if you said, is is Amazon more aligned with OpenAI or Google?

Speaker 0

你可能会问,你在说什么啊?

You'd be like, what are you talking about?

Speaker 0

都不是。

Neither.

Speaker 0

这就对了。

That's correct.

Speaker 0

他们不属于任何一方阵营。

They're not in one of the complexes.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

也许他们需要这样。

Maybe they need to be.

Speaker 0

也许不需要。

Maybe they don't.

Speaker 0

也许他们会,你知道的,在外部形成自己的阵营。

Maybe they will, you know, form their own complex outside of it.

Speaker 0

但我只是觉得有趣的是,我同意你的观点,认为他们考虑购买TPU的想法很荒谬。

But I just think it's interesting that, I agree with you that it's like it was ridiculous to consider the idea of them buying TPU.

Speaker 0

这感觉太不符合他们的风格了,然而他们在AWS内部提供了大量竞争性产品,而且——回顾亚马逊早期——

That feels so uncharacteristic, And yet they serve up plenty of competitive products within AWS, and they're they they will you go back to the early days of Amazon.

Speaker 0

你可以买到亚马逊自营的纸巾。

You can get Amazon Basics paper towels.

Speaker 0

你也可以买到品牌纸巾。

You can also get name brand paper towels.

Speaker 0

这种情况在AWS提供的数据库堆栈中同样存在。

And that's and that exists within the AWS stack from the databases that they have on offer.

Speaker 0

有很多

There's a lot

Speaker 1

将Trainium重新命名为亚马逊基础版。

of rebrand Trainium to Amazon basic.

Speaker 0

G t GPU。

G t GPU.

Speaker 0

亚马逊基础加速器。

Amazon basics accelerator.

Speaker 1

基础基础芯片。

Basic basic chips.

Speaker 0

基础芯片。

Basic chips.

Speaker 0

它就在基础芯片上。

It was on basics chips.

Speaker 0

那会很好。

It would be good.

Speaker 0

我真的很难做到。

I can't really, really hard.

Speaker 0

它们实际上就像是有史以来最伟大的发明之一。

They're like, actually, it's like one of the greatest things ever.

Speaker 0

这是美国乃至人类有史以来创造的最不可思议的东西。

It's the most incredible thing that America or that humanity has ever created.

Speaker 0

制作过程极其困难。

It's extremely difficult to make.

Speaker 0

我们教会了沙子思考。

We we taught sand a thing.

Speaker 0

总之,我只是不认为Trainium 3是...你知道的,显然AWS的每个人都对此很兴奋,这确实是件大事。

Anyway, I I I just don't think Tranium three is the you know, obviously, everyone at AWS is, like, excited about it, and it's a big it's a big deal.

Speaker 0

但这并不是他们业务的核心支柱。

But it's just not the backbone of their business.

Speaker 0

从长远来看,他们可能只会退守到为客户提供选择支持。

And in the long term, they might just retreat to supporting choice for their customers.

Speaker 0

所以,你知道的,我一直在反复引用杰夫·贝索斯那句话。

And so, you know, I I keep going back to that Jeff Bezos line.

Speaker 0

我们并不痴迷于竞争对手。

We're not competitor obsessed.

Speaker 0

我们痴迷的是客户。

We're customer obsessed.

Speaker 0

因此我不会感到太意外。

And so I wouldn't be as surprised.

Speaker 1

你觉得亚马逊没有专门的播客负责人对他们伤害有多大?

How much do you think it hurts Amazon that they don't have a dedicated podcast guy?

Speaker 1

比如没有像肖尔托这样的人。

Like, don't have a Sholto.

Speaker 1

也没有像山姆这样的人。

They don't have a Sam.

Speaker 1

他们没有像萨提亚那样的人物。

They don't have a Satya.

Speaker 0

你知道这影响有多大,因为他们肯定有人担任这个角色。

You know how much that hurts because they definitely have someone in that role.

Speaker 0

只是你不认识他们罢了。

You just don't know them.

Speaker 1

这正是我想说的。

That's what I'm saying.

Speaker 0

是啊。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

他们没有那种能够...

They don't have someone who's

Speaker 1

他们可能有这个头衔,但并没有真正掌握主导权。

They might have they might have the title, but they're not really in the driver's seat.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

是啊。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

他们没有符文。

They don't have a rune.

Speaker 1

他们确实没有符文。

They don't have the rune.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

他们没有。

They don't have a.

Speaker 0

没错。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

他们该加把劲了。

They should step it up.

Speaker 0

他们确实应该找个人来负责。

They should they should definitely get someone.

Speaker 0

我很想看看。

I'd love to see it.

Speaker 0

嗯,幸运的是,我是说,半分析团队在那里拍照,分享了Trainium三号超算服务器的液态冷却系统照片,看起来非常专业。

Well, fortunately, I mean, the semi analysis crew was over there taking pictures, sharing photos in the timeline of the Trainium three Ultra Server liquid cooled with a lot of hard eyes.

Speaker 0

这是个好消息,来自半分析团队的高度评价。

That's some good news from, that's a glowing endorsement from the the semi analysis crew.

Speaker 0

看看这个。

And look at this.

Speaker 0

非常紫。

Very purple.

Speaker 0

我在想这是不是故意的。

I wonder if that's, like, intentional.

Speaker 0

我在想他们是不是特意布置了紫色灯光。

I wonder if they set up the, the purple lighting.

Speaker 0

那边re:Invent大会上正在发生一堆有趣的事情。

There there there's a bunch of funny things going on over at re:Invent.

展开剩余字幕(还有 480 条)
Speaker 0

这也像是一年中最忙碌的时段。

It's also just like it's a punishing time of the year.

Speaker 0

我猜可能是因为临近假期什么的,我们简直忙得不可开交。

I guess it's, like, right before the holidays or something because we've just been complete torn.

Speaker 0

我们显然很想去YC演示日。

We we obviously wanted to go to YC demo day.

Speaker 0

我还想去正在举办的NeurIPS——顶级AI会议。

I also wanted to go to NeurIPS, which is going on right now, the premier AI conference.

Speaker 0

还有DealBook峰会。

There's also DealBook Summit.

Speaker 0

Andrew Sorkin正在做各种最棒的访谈。

Andrew Sorkin's doing, like, all the greatest interviews.

Speaker 0

同时还有Reinvent大会。

At the same time, there's Reinvent.

Speaker 0

我本来也想去参加的。

I wanted to go to that.

Speaker 1

来自DealBook的访谈

Interviews coming out of DealBook.

Speaker 1

我今天早上刚看到一些片段

I just saw some clips this morning.

Speaker 1

我们会播放一些

You got We'll play some.

Speaker 1

Scott Besson表现得很强势

Scott Besson just going hard.

Speaker 1

是啊

Yeah.

Speaker 1

Alex Karp也很强势

You got Alex Karp going hard.

Speaker 1

这些方面都没有真正的意外,不过是啊

No real surprises on either of those fronts, but Yeah.

Speaker 1

很期待

Excited to

Speaker 0

Well

Speaker 1

获取最新进展

get the update there.

Speaker 0

让我来介绍一下Cognition

Let me tell you about Cognition.

Speaker 0

Devin背后的团队——这款AI软件工程师,用你的个人AI工程团队来攻克积压任务

The team behind the AI software engineer, Devin, crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team.

Speaker 0

让我们用这篇Zephyr的帖子结束训练覆盖率的讨论,文中提到谷歌的TPU取得了这类成功

Let's let's let's close out the training coverage with this Zephyr post who says Google is having this kind of success with TPUs.

Speaker 0

那亚马逊的Tranium呢?

What about Amazon's Tranium?

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Tranium是新推出的但性能不足,仅667万亿次浮点运算(BF16)

Tranium is new and underpowered, just 667 t flops b f 16.

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它配备了大量HBM,但带宽低于H100 TPU v6e

It has lots of HBM, but the bandwidth is lower than the h 100 TPU v six e.

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这款具有竞争力的h100,既不需要HBM也不依赖带宽,而Ironwood在FLOPS带宽和HBM容量方面与Blackwell旗鼓相当。

This competitive h 100, non HBM or bandwidth, and Ironwood is competitive with Blackwell on FLOPS bandwidth and HBM capacity.

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随着产能爬坡,预计Ironwood将快速抢占市场份额——从吞吐量/总体拥有成本对比可见,NVIDIA对Tranium的优势明显。

I expect Ironwood to quickly gain market share as it ramps up as you can see from throughput slash TCO, NVIDIA versus Tranium.

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Ruben Moggs数据显示,Tranium3在TCO训练FLOPS上比Tranium2更难匹敌Blackwell,但在TCO内存带宽方面将差距缩小了5%。

Ruben Moggs, Tranium three harder than Blackwell versus Tranium two on TCO training FLOPS and reduces the gap by 5% on TCO MEM bandwidth.

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因此NVIDIA与Tranium之间的差距实际上正在扩大而非缩小。

So the gap between NVIDIA and Tranium is actually increasing rather than decreasing.

Speaker 0

顺便说明,这些计算是在CPX发布前完成的。

By the way, this math was done before CPX was introduced.

Speaker 0

即使CPX加上Rubin方案,其推理成本低于Tranium我也不会感到意外。

I won't be surprised if CPX plus Rubin is cheaper than Tranium for inference.

Speaker 0

我认为确实存在这样的可能性:某些专用场景——就像Descartes的案例那样,会出现专门针对Tranium优势领域优化的特殊模型,从而进一步细分市场。

So I I do think that there's a world where there's, where there's something specialized, like what's going on with Descartes, some sort of special model that's that that that excel that that that thrives in what Tranium is good at, and they can further niche down.

Speaker 0

不过我们拭目以待。

But but we'll see.

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我是说,也许他们会后来居上,彻底击败TPU,明年我们都会讨论Trainium。

I mean, maybe they come from behind and they just destroy t p TPU, and we're all talking about Trainium next year.

Speaker 0

总之,让我来介绍一下Linear。

Anyway, let me tell you about Linear.

Speaker 0

认识一下现代软件开发的系统。

Meet the system for modern software development.

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Linear能简化从路线图到发布的整个开发周期的工作流程。

Linear streamlines work across entire entire development cycles from road map to release.

Speaker 0

我们要稍微默哀一下。

We're gonna say a little rest in peace.

Speaker 1

为小队默哀。

Rest in peace to squad.

Speaker 0

旧金山心爱的白化短吻鳄去世了,享年30岁。

San Francisco's beloved albino alligator has passed away at age 30.

Speaker 0

这个年纪很不错了。

That's a good age.

Speaker 0

我不知道鳄鱼通常能活多久,但我很高兴正在查资料。

I don't know how long alligators typically live, but I'm glad Looking it up.

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感觉像是三十到五十年

Feels like Thirty to fifty years

Speaker 0

对于美洲短吻鳄来说。

for the American Alagina.

Speaker 0

稍微短了点,不过克劳德当然

Little bit short, but, Claude was, of course

Speaker 1

通常能活到70岁或更久。

Often supporting reaching 70 or more.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 1

总之,安息吧,你知道,显然人们立刻开始猜测了。

Anyways, RIP, there was, you know, obviously, people started speculating immediately.

Speaker 1

Anthropic当然是赞助商

Anthropic, of course, was the sponsor

Speaker 0

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 0

克劳德。

Claude.

Speaker 0

对。

Yes.

Speaker 1

而且,你知道,人们都在怀疑这其中是否存在什么阴谋?

And, you know, people were wondering was was there foul play involved?

Speaker 1

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

Speaker 1

有没有可能这只可怜的恐龙...不是恐龙。

Was it possible this this poor dinosaur not dinosaur.

Speaker 1

恐龙。

Dinosaur.

Speaker 1

鳄鱼去世的那天正好是公告发布的那天。

Alligator passed the day that they that that it that it got announced.

Speaker 1

是啊。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

他们聘请了IPO律师。

That they've hired IPO lawyers.

Speaker 1

有人猜测,克劳德是否被作为祭品献给了资本市场的众神,就像某种仪式一样?

Some people were speculating could is it possible Claude was sacrificed to the capital markets gods in some type of ritual?

Speaker 1

不过话说回来,看看他脸上的这个表情。

But anyways, he look at the look at this expression he has on his face.

Speaker 1

我们能稍微放大一点吗?

Can we zoom in a little bit?

Speaker 1

真是个酷炫的家伙。

What a what a what a cool guy.

Speaker 1

他会被人们铭记。

And he will be remembered.

Speaker 0

没错。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

丹·普里马克正在谈论X Lite。

Dan Primak here is talking about, x lite.

Speaker 0

我想我们很快就能邀请到CEO上节目。

I think we might have the CEO on the show soon.

Speaker 0

特朗普政府将向一家名为X Lite的光刻初创公司投资1.5亿美元。

The Trump administration will invest a $150,000,000 into a lithography startup called X Lite.

Speaker 0

今早与X Lite CEO交流了其首个芯片法案奖项的情况。

Its first Chips Act award chatted this morning with X Lite CEO.

Speaker 0

现在有几家光刻公司了。

There's a few lithography companies now.

Speaker 0

我们节目曾邀请过其中一些。

We've had some on the show.

Speaker 0

这感觉像是全新的投资层级,非常有趣,比如政府投入的1.5亿美元,看起来像是B轮融资规模。

This feels like an entirely new it's a it's a very interesting tier of investment, like a $150,000,000 from the government that feels like a series b.

Speaker 0

他们确实在今年夏天完成了B轮融资,由Playground Global领投,Playground合伙人兼英特尔前CEO帕特·基辛格出任X Lite执行董事长。

They did raise a they did raise a series b this past summer led by Playground Global with Playground partner and former Intel CEO, Pat Gelsinger, becoming X Lite's executive chairman.

Speaker 0

哇哦。

Woah.

Speaker 0

所以政府投资英特尔是合理的。

And so makes sense that the government's investing in Intel.

Speaker 0

帕特·基辛格,当然是英特尔的前任CEO。

Pat Gelsinger, of course, former Intel CEO.

Speaker 0

现在他涉足X Lite,筹集了4000万美元资金,又从政府那里获得了1.5亿。

Now he's getting involved in X Lite, marshaled 40,000,000 of capital, went and got a 150 from the government.

Speaker 0

故事还在继续。

The the story continues.

Speaker 0

还有另一家AI初创公司,想要重塑8000亿美元的芯片产业。

There's also another AI startup, that wants to remake the $800,000,000,000 chip industry.

Speaker 0

这家公司登上了《华尔街日报》,由前谷歌研究人员创立,名为递归智能,获得了红杉资本支持的3500万美元融资,用于自动化芯片设计。

This one's in The Wall Street Journal founded by ex Google researchers, Recursive Intelligence, raised 35,000,000 with backing from Sequoia to automate chip design.

Speaker 0

显然,这不是光刻技术。

Obviously, this is not lithography.

Speaker 0

这是设计流程。

This is the design process.

Speaker 0

但公司们仍在Dylan Patel

But still, companies are Dylan Patel

Speaker 1

稍微谈到了一些

was talking a little bit about

Speaker 3

这个。

this.

Speaker 0

堆栈。

The stack.

Speaker 0

哦,他确实提到了。

Oh, he did.

Speaker 0

我没听说这事。

I didn't hear about that.

Speaker 0

非常酷。

Very cool.

Speaker 1

这是用于AI芯片设计的人工智能。

This is AI for for AI chip design.

Speaker 0

哦,没错。

Oh, that's right.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 0

用于AI芯片设计的人工智能。

AI for AI chip design.

Speaker 0

我们所需的一切。

Everything we need.

Speaker 0

在距离斯坦福大学几个街区的一条安静住宅街上,两位前谷歌研究员正在创办一家初创公司,他们希望这将重塑价值8000亿美元的芯片行业。

On a quiet residential street a few blocks from Stanford University, two former Google researchers are launching a startup they hope will remake the $800,000,000,000 chip industry.

Speaker 0

安娜·戈尔迪和阿扎利亚·梅尔霍斯尼正试图开发能够自动化设计尖端芯片的软件,这一愿景将使每家公司都能从零开始打造自己的芯片。

Ana Goldie and Azalea Merhosni are trying to build software that can automate the design of cutting edge chips, a prospect that would allow every company to build their own chips from scratch.

Speaker 0

两人在郊区住宅的顶层工作,最近筹集了3500万美元资金,在红杉资本等投资方的支持下启动了递归智能项目

Working from the top floor of a suburban home, the duo recently raised 35,000,000 to kick start recursive intelligence with funding from Sequoia Capital and

Speaker 4

抱歉。

strike Sorry.

Speaker 0

我们

The We

Speaker 1

明白了。

got it.

Speaker 1

递归的我们得加上这个。

The recursive We gotta add that.

Speaker 1

把它加进名字里。

Putting it in the name.

Speaker 0

我们得把这个加到列表里,因为已经有标准资本、现代资本、标准智能、现代智能了。

We gotta add that to the list of because there's standard capital, modern capital, standard intelligence, modern intelligence.

Speaker 1

原始智能。

Raw intelligence.

Speaker 0

原始智能是那个自由谎言。

Raw intelligence was the the lying free.

Speaker 0

应用型是另一种。

Applied was another one.

Speaker 1

Cap intelligence。

Cap intelligence.

Speaker 0

那另一个是什么来着?

And then what was the other one?

Speaker 0

洛克希德·格鲁姆的公司叫什么来着?

There's what what what's Lockheed Groom's, company?

Speaker 1

物理智能。

Physical intelligence.

Speaker 0

有物理智能,物理资本。

There's physical intelligence, physical capital.

Speaker 0

所以这是个矩阵,比如资本,它是什么来着?

So it's the matrix of, like, capital, what was it?

Speaker 0

资本智能和直觉之类的。

Capital intelligence and intuition or something like that.

Speaker 0

你把它们全部相乘,就能得到完整的体系。

And you and you multiply them all out and you get the whole thing.

Speaker 1

最终,我们会用完这些词。

Eventually, we're gonna run out.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

某种程度上是有限的。

There's it's some somewhat finite.

Speaker 0

不。

No.

Speaker 0

永远会有更多名称出现。

There will always be more names.

Speaker 1

那就创造些新词吧。

Start up a new new words.

Speaker 0

哇,真厉害。

So wow.

Speaker 0

这家公司3500万,估值7.5亿。

The company, 35,000,000, for a valuation of 750,000,000.

Speaker 0

稀释比例非常低。

That's a very low dilution.

Speaker 0

什么?

What?

Speaker 0

5%左右?

5% or something like that?

Speaker 0

相当了不起。

Pretty remarkable.

Speaker 0

确实

Definitely

Speaker 1

风投确实很厉害。

VC is remarkable.

Speaker 0

高。

High.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

我...我原本以为这会是一个非常资本密集型的行业,但如果他们只是开发软件的话,也许...也许他们在这方面有更多控制权。

I I I would I would have assumed this would be a very a very capital intensive business, but I I I suppose if it's just a software that they're developing, maybe maybe they have more control here.

Speaker 0

诸如亚马逊和谷歌等公司已为AI和数据中心用途开发了定制芯片,而苹果通过内部研发设备芯片(包括帮助重振其MacBook笔记本电脑的M系列芯片)节省了数十亿美元。

Companies such as Amazon and Google have developed custom chips for AI and data center use, and Apple saved billions of dollars by insourcing chips for its devices, including the M series chips have helped revitalize its MacBook laptops.

Speaker 0

这类硅基方案可能更便宜,更...

Such silicon options can be cheaper, more I had

Speaker 1

昨天有个有趣的瞬间。

a funny moment yesterday.

Speaker 1

我们收到了一个亚马逊包裹,没错。

We got an Amazon package Yep.

Speaker 1

包装上全是外星人(Alienware)品牌的标志。

And it was covered with, like, Alienware, like, Alienware branding.

Speaker 0

而我...

And I

Speaker 1

我问莎拉

I asked I asked Sarah.

Speaker 1

我说,你是不是买了外星人的东西?

I was like, did you did you get something from Alienware?

Speaker 1

这是怎么回事?

Like, what is going on?

Speaker 1

结果发现是个广告

And it turned out to be an ad.

Speaker 1

不是

No.

Speaker 1

他们在宣传说这是由英特尔驱动的

They were advertising that it's powered by like Intel.

Speaker 0

哦,有意思

Oh, interesting.

Speaker 1

这并没有让我立刻想买外星人设备

Which which didn't make me necessarily want to immediately buy an Alienware device.

Speaker 0

你确实,你你你把钱直接放回自己口袋了,因为你是纳税人。

You do, you you you put the money straight back in your pocket because you're a taxpayer.

Speaker 0

你拥有英特尔。

You own Intel.

Speaker 1

确实如此。

That's true.

Speaker 1

确实如此。

That's true.

Speaker 0

你应该支持英特尔。

You should support Intel.

Speaker 0

不。

No.

Speaker 0

英特尔在游戏领域无疑表现出色。

Intel Intel is undisputably great for gaming.

Speaker 0

这一点毋庸置疑。

There's no question there.

Speaker 0

问题是,他们能否建造一个能与台积电竞争的晶圆厂?

The question is, are they gonna, you know, be able to build a fab that competes with TSMC?

Speaker 0

我想这完全是另一个问题了。

I guess it's a completely different question.

Speaker 0

我可能会去组装一台外星人Intel电脑。

I I might go build an an Alienware Intel PC.

Speaker 1

哦,我们要为办公室的赛车装备准备。

Oh, we're going to for the for the the office racing rigs.

Speaker 0

模拟赛车肯定需要Intel处理器。

The sim racing needs the Intel Inside for sure.

Speaker 0

肯定的。

For sure.

Speaker 1

这节目要变成模拟赛车秀了,我们会一边模拟赛车一边看其他播客节目并实时吐槽。

This is just gonna turn into a sim racing show where we watch other podcasts while sim racing and reacting to it.

Speaker 2

没错。

Yeah.

Speaker 2

所以我喜欢这样。

So I like it.

Speaker 0

Vanta,自动化合规与安全,人工智能驱动从证据收集、持续监控到安全审查和供应商风险的一切。

Vanta, automate compliance and security, AI that powers everything from evidence collection and continuous monitoring to security reviews and vendor risk.

Speaker 0

德瓦卡什·帕特尔写了一篇重磅文章,彻底颠覆了时间线预测。

Dwarkash Patel has a, a massive essay shaking up the timeline.

Speaker 0

对AI发展的看法。

Thoughts on AI progress.

Speaker 0

他说自己短期适度看空,但长期极度看涨。

He says he's moderately bearish in the short term, but explosively bullish in the long term.

Speaker 0

嗯,非常有趣。

Well Very interesting.

Speaker 0

他表示不理解为什么有些人持短期观点。

So he says he's confused why some people have short timelines.

Speaker 0

他们说通用人工智能即将到来。

They say AGI is coming soon.

Speaker 0

但与此同时,他们对RLVR(可验证奖励的强化学习)持乐观态度。

But at the same time, they're bullish on RLVR, which is reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards.

Speaker 0

因此他表示,如果我们真的接近拥有类人类学习能力的系统,那么整个方法就注定失败。

And so he says, if we're actually close to a human like learner, this whole approach is doomed.

Speaker 0

目前,实验室正试图通过中期训练将这些技能批量植入模型。

Currently, the labs are trying to bake in a bunch of skills into these models through mid training.

Speaker 0

有一整套企业供应链正在构建RL环境,用于教导模型如何使用Excel编写财务模型。

There's an entire supply chain of companies building RL environments, which teach the model how to use Excel to write financial models.

Speaker 0

例如,我们正在讨论的Crunch——一家YC孵化公司推出的AI Excel分析师工具,专为Excel高级用户设计。

For example, I think we're actually talking to an AI Excel analyst for Excel power users called Crunch at twelve fifty YC company.

Speaker 0

我认为这些都是不错的构想。

I think that these are good ideas.

Speaker 0

实际上,我十分看好这个模型。

I I'm actually very bullish on on, this this, this model.

Speaker 0

但在通用人工智能何时到来、超级智能何时出现的问题上,我理解德瓦基什的观点。

But in the context of when does AGI arrive, when does superintelligence arrive, I understand Dwarkish's point.

Speaker 0

他说,要么这些模型很快就能以自主的方式在工作中学习,使所有这些预先训练变得毫无意义;要么它们做不到,这意味着通用人工智能(AGI)不会很快到来。

He says either these models will soon learn on the job in a self directed way, making all of this prebaking pointless, or they won't, which means AGI is not imminent.

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人类不需要经历一个特殊的训练阶段,在那里我们必须预先练习可能使用的每一款软件。

Humans don't have to go through a special training phase where they need to rehearse every single piece of software we might ever use.

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巴伦在最近的一篇博客文章中对此提出了有趣的观点。

Barron made interesting points about this in a recent blog post.

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当我们看到前沿模型在各种基准测试中进步时,我们不应该只想到规模扩大和巧妙的机器学习研究思路,还要想到花费数十亿美元聘请博士、医学博士和其他专家来编写问题和提供示例。

When we see frontier models improving at various benchmarks, we should not, we should think not just of increased scale and clever ML research ideas, but billions of dollars spent paying PhDs, MDs, and other experts to write questions and provide examples.

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让我们为博士们鼓掌。

Let's give it up the PhDs.

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以及推理目标。

And reasoning targets.

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让我们为专家们鼓掌。

Let's give it up for the experts.

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这些精确的能力。

These precise capabilities.

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从某种程度上说,这像是专家系统时代的大规模重现——只不过现在不是直接付钱让专家将他们的思维编码成程序,而是让他们提供大量经过形式化追踪的推理过程案例,然后我们通过行为克隆将这些案例提炼到模型中。

In a way, this is like a large scale reprise of the expert systems era where instead of paying experts to directly program their thinking as code, they provide numerous examples of their reasoning and process formalized and tracked, and then we distill them into models through behavioral cloning.

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这让我略微倾向于延长AI发展时间线,因为既然我们需要投入如此巨大努力来为前沿系统设计极高品质的人类行为轨迹和环境,这说明它们仍然缺乏真正AGI必须具备的核心学习能力。

This has updated me slightly towards longer AI timeline since we since given we need such effort to design extremely high quality human trajectories and environments for frontier systems implies that they still lack the critical core of learning that an actual AGI must possess.

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这种矛盾在机器人领域显得尤为突出。

This tension seems especially vivid in robotics.

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从根本意义上说,机器人技术是算法问题,而非硬件或数据问题。

In some fundamental sense, robotics is an algorithm's problem, not a hardware or data problem.

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人类只需极少训练就能学会远程操作现有硬件完成有用工作。

With very little training, a human can learn how to teleoperate current hardware to do useful work.

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因此如果我们拥有类人类学习能力的系统,机器人技术大部分难题就能迎刃而解。

So if we had a human like learner, robotics would, in large part, be solved.

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但正因为缺乏这种学习能力,我们才不得不走进成千上万不同家庭和工厂,学习如何收拾餐具或叠衣服。

But the fact that we don't have such a learner makes it necessary to go out into thousands of different homes and factories and learn how to pick up dishes or fold laundry.

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我听过五年内实现突破派的反对观点:我们做这些GRL是为了构建超级AI研究者,然后让百万个自动化Ilia的副本可以解决如何从经验中学习如何解决。

One counterargument I've heard from the takeoff within five years crew is that we have to do this clue GRL in service of building a superhuman AI researcher, and then the million the million copies of automated Ilia can go figure out how to solve robust and efficient learning from experience.

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这给人一种'每笔交易都在亏钱,但我们会通过销量赚回来'的感觉。

This gives the vibes of we're losing money on every sale, but we'll make it up in volume.

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这个自动化研究者竟然要解决人类近一个世纪都未能突破的通用人工智能算法问题,而它连儿童的基本学习能力都不具备?

This automated researcher is somehow going to figure out the algorithm for AGI, something humans have been banging their heads against for the better part of a century while not having the basic learning capabilities that children have?

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这在我看来极其不可信。

That seems super implausible to me.

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况且,即便你相信这种说法,它显然也不符合实验室研究强化学习的现实路径。

Besides, even if you even even if that's what you believe, it clearly doesn't describe how the labs are approaching RLVR.

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要自动化伊利亚的工作,根本不需要预先掌握制作PPT演示文稿这类咨询顾问技能。

You don't need to prebake the consultant's skills at crafting PowerPoint slides in order to automate Ilia.

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显然,实验室的做法暗示着这样一个世界观:这些模型在泛化和在职学习方面将持续表现不佳,因此必须预先植入那些他们认为具有经济价值的技能。

So clearly, the lab's actions hint at a world where, at a world view where these models will continue to fare poorly at generalizing and on the job learning, thus making it necessary to build in the skills that they hope will be economically valuable beforehand.

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我想谈谈经济扩散的部分。

I wanna go to the section on economic diffusion.

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不过在此之前,我要先讲讲Privy的故事。

But first, I'm gonna tell you about Privy.

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Privy让在加密轨道上构建应用变得简单,能安全地启动白标钱包、签署交易,并通过一个简单的API集成链上基础设施。

Privy makes it easy to build on crypto rails, securely spin up white label wallets, sign transactions, and integrate on chain infrastructure all through one simple API.

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所以你一直在询问经济扩散的问题。

So you've been asking about economic diffusion.

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我们目前的扩散速率是多少?

What is the rate that we're diffusing?

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让我们看看德瓦卡什对经济扩散有何见解。

Let's see what Dwarkash has to say about economic diffusion.

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他认为经济扩散滞后是对能力缺失的自我安慰。

He says that economic diffusion lag is cope for missing capabilities.

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这似乎也受到泰勒·考恩观点的影响,即通用人工智能已经到来。

And so this is also seems informed by the Tyler Cowen take that, AGI is here.

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模型表现良好,只是需要时间来适应它们。

The models are good, but it just takes time to adopt them.

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对此我深有共鸣,因为当我去诊所时他们递给我一张纸,我就知道网页表单已经足够好了。

And I I'm very sympathetic to this because when I go to the doctor's office and they hand me a piece of paper, I know that a web form is good enough.

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比如,数字表单的功能已经完备。

Like, the capabilities of the digital form are complete.

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并不是说表单缺少什么功能或不够可靠。

It's not that the form is lacking in something or it's not reliable enough.

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并不是他们说的那种情况,比如‘哦,是的’。

It's not like they're like, oh, yes.

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比如网站有20%的时间会宕机,所以在这种情况下纸质表单仍然更有意义。

Like, the website goes down 20% of the time, and so paper makes more sense still in this case.

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其实不是这样的。

It's like, no.

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这只是一个普及度的问题。

It's just a diffusion problem.

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只是那个诊所的负责人还在用老方法做事。

There's just someone who runs that doctor's office is like, like doing it the old way.

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对吧?

Right?

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这就是经济扩散滞后问题,我认为在许多场景中确实存在这种情况。

And that's the and that's the economic diffusion lag problem that I think is real in a lot of scenarios.

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但说到缺失的功能,我举个非常具体的例子。

But The missing capability thing, I mean, just just to give a pretty concrete example.

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目前,AI在生成文本方面表现非常出色。

Right now, AI is great at generating text.

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对吧?

Right?

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它非常擅长分析一段内容并据此生成文本。

It's great at kind of analyzing a piece of content and then generating text based on that.

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然而,我们TPPN团队仍有多个成员的工作是寻找节目中精彩瞬间,然后围绕这些内容创建字幕,并分享到X、Instagram、YouTube等平台。

And yet, we still have multiple people on the team at TPPN whose job is to find interesting moments of the show and then create captions around that and share it to X and Instagram and YouTube and other platforms.

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还有乔拉·凯什

And and Jorah Kesh

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经历过这种情况

experienced it

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同样,他试图通过一个大型Gemini提示来找出完整播客中最有趣的部分。

too, where he was trying to find the most interesting pieces of a full podcast with one big Gemini prompt.

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他尝试了所有不同的模型,却无法真正找到最突出和最具传播力的要点。

And he was trying all the different models and couldn't get it to actually find like the most salient and viral points.

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是的。

Yeah.

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另一个突出的问题是,看似缺失的能力之一是无法识别幽默,甚至近乎情感的东西。

So one of the other thing that stands out is one of the seeming missing capabilities is ability to identify humor or even something like it's almost emotional.

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Ilya和Dwarkash讨论过这个,我记得Ilya举了个例子,科学家研究过那些因脑损伤而丧失情感体验能力的人。

So Ilya and Dwarkash talked about this where I think Ilya was giving the example of scientists studied people who had had various brain injuries that limited their ability to experience emotion.

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当他们失去情感时,有人可能需要花两小时才能决定选哪双袜子。

And when they took out emotion, it took them, it can take somebody two hours to figure out which pair of socks to choose.

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他们震惊了。

And they were stunned.

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不过就是选双袜子而已。

It's just a pair of socks.

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你知道自己一天中发生了什么。

You know what's going on in your day.

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为什么你需要情感来做这种决定?

Why do you need emotion in order to make that kind of decision?

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所以至少在AI领域,似乎缺失的能力是,比如在Parkesh的案例中,如何找出播客中有趣的瞬间。

And so it seems like, at least in AI, a missing capability is like, Okay, finding out what's an interesting moment of a podcast in Parkesh's case.

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是能让听众产生共鸣的内容吗?

Is it something that makes the audience member feel feel something?

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对吧?

Right?

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Is it

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我是说,需要梳理的内容实在太多了。

I mean, there's just so much to pull through.

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比如我记得在Carpathi的采访中,我当时和Tyler一起在看。

Like, I remember during the Carpathi interview, I was watching it and Tyler was watching it.

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就在那一刻,卡帕西说,那些编程模型确实神奇又惊艳,但它们产出的却是垃圾。

And there's this moment where Carpathi says, like, the coding models are are are amazing and they're magical, but what they produce is slop.

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而‘垃圾’这个词简直成了年度热词,或者说可能是去年的年度词汇。

And it's like that word slop is so it's the it's it's like the word of the year or maybe the word of last year.

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这个词影响巨大。

Like, it's a huge word.

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它承载了太多含义。

It has a huge amount of weight.

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从他口中说出来,简直不可思议。

Coming from him, it's crazy.

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愤怒诱饵击败了‘垃圾’成为年度词汇

That rage bait beat out slop for the word of

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的称号。

the year.

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‘垃圾’很可能会成为2024年的年度词汇之类。

Slop is probably the twenty twenty four word of the year or something like that.

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不过话说回来,重点是,当我听到泰勒用'垃圾'这个词形容时,所有人都震惊了。

But, anyway, the point was, like, when when when I heard that, when Tyler heard that that that word, Carpathi calling it slop, everyone was like, woah.

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我当时就想,我们该把这段剪出来。

And I was like, we should clip that.

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结果一看,已经被别人抢先剪辑了。

And we looked, and it had already been clipped by a no.

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被一个真人剪辑的。

By a human.

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是啊。

Like Yeah.

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时间线上也有人发现了这个值得关注和回应的疯狂瞬间。

Someone on the timeline had also identified that it was was the crazy moment that we should be reacting to and taking in.

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It

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确实,太疯狂了。

was Yeah, it's crazy.

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另一个值得注意的是,在WAP平台上,人们最常做的工作之一,或者说他们在线赚取第一桶金的方式,就是为各种内容创作者和媒体公司剪辑视频。

The other thing that's notable is on WAP, one of the top jobs that people do on WAP, or way they make their first dollar online, is just clipping for various content creators and media companies.

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而且他们制作的一些剪辑片段非常粗糙。

And some of the clips that they make are so sloppy.

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那真的只是节目中的随机片段,他们却用20个不同的账号疯狂发布。

It's literally just a random segment of the show, and they're blasting it out from 20 different accounts.

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我们至今还在花钱雇人做这种事,这本身就值得注意。

And the fact that we're still paying humans to do that, still, I mean, it just feels notable.

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是啊。

Yeah.

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好吧,我们来读读德瓦克·赫斯关于经济扩散实验室滞后的观点——这是对缺失能力的自我安慰。

Well, let's read Dwark Hess's take on economic diffusion lab lag being cope for missing capabilities.

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所以有时候'Copium'会是个很棒的命名,

So sometimes Copium would be a beautiful name for

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顺便说,可以用于AI芯片。

an AI chip, by the way.

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确实如此。

It would.

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确实如此。

It would.

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你们有Tranium。

You got Tranium.

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也许他们需要

Maybe they need

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你们有Copium。

You got Copium.

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Copium。

Copium.

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有时人们会说,AI没有更广泛地部署在各公司中,并且除了编程之外尚未提供大量价值的原因是技术扩散需要很长时间。

Sometimes people will say that the reason that AIs aren't more wide widely deployed across firms and already pro providing lots of value outside of coding is that technology takes a long time to diffuse.

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Dorkash认为这只是自我安慰。

Dorkash thinks this is cope.

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他说人们用这种自我安慰的说辞来掩盖这些模型缺乏创造广泛经济价值所需能力的事实。

He says people are using this cope to gloss over the fact that these models just lack the capabilities necessary for broad economic value.

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史蒂文·巴恩斯对此问题及其他多个观点发表了一篇精彩的文章。

Steven bar Burns has an excellent post on this and many other points.

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他表示新技术需要很长时间才能融入经济体系。

He says new technologies take a long time to integrate into the economy.

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那么试问,那些高技能、经验丰富且具有企业家精神的移民人类,又是如何能立即融入经济体系的呢?

Well, ask yourself, how long how do highly skilled, experienced, and entrepreneurial immigrant humans manage to integrate into the economy immediately?

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当你回答完这个问题后,请注意多克什说,通用人工智能也将具备这些能力。

Once you've answered that question, note that a AGI will be able to do those things too, Dorkesh says.

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如果这些模型真像是服务器上的人类,它们将以惊人的速度扩散。

If these models were actually like humans on a server, they'd diffuse incredibly quickly.

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事实上,它们会比普通人类员工更容易融入和上岗。

In fact, they'd be so much easier to integrate and onboard than a normal human employee.

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它们能在几分钟内读完你所有的Slack记录,并立即掌握其他AI员工拥有的全部技能。

They could read your entire Slack and drive in minutes and immediately distill all the skills that your other AI employees have.

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此外,招聘市场非常像一个柠檬市场,很难事先判断谁是优秀人才,而雇佣一个不合适的人成本相当高。

Plus, the hiring market is very much like a lemons market where it's hard to tell who the good people are beforehand, and hiring someone bad is quite costly.

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这种动态因素在你只需启动另一个经过验证的AGI模型实例时完全无需担心。

There's there this is a dynamic that you wouldn't have to worry about when you just wanna spin up another instance of a vetted AGI model.

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基于这些原因,我预期将AI劳动力融入企业会比雇佣人类容易得多,而企业每天都在大量招人。

For these reasons, I expect it's going to be much easier to diffuse AI labor into firms than it is to hire a person, and companies hire lots of people all the time.

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如果能力真达到AGI水平,人们会愿意每年花费数万亿美元购买代币。

If the capabilities were actually at AGI level, people would be willing to spend trillions of dollars a year buying tokens.

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知识工作者 是啊。

Knowledge workers Yeah.

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想想看。

Think about that.

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我们雇佣一个人 是啊。

We we hire someone Yeah.

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就像,我们雇佣一个AI 是啊。

That like, we hire an AI Yeah.

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或者说我们在利用一个AI,它已经听过了TBPN的每一分钟内容。

Or or we're leveraging an AI, and they've listened to every single minute of TBPN Yeah.

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每一分钟。

Ever Yeah.

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并且观看了每一个片段。

And watched every clip.

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是的。

Yeah.

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而现在,你需要对模型进行微调之类的操作。

And right now, you'd have to fine tune that into the model or whatever.

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这不是一开始就能直接获得的。

You you don't just get that out of the gate.

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没错。

Yeah.

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我只是想说,我们最终确实雇佣了很多这样的人。

And I'm just saying, like, the the we we do end up hiring a lot of people that Yeah.

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那些是

That are

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是的。

Yeah.

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比如之前只是听众的人。

Like previously just listeners.

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对。

Yeah.

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但要找到一个了解节目中每一刻的人,确实。

But getting somebody that knows every single moment that has ever happened on the show Yeah.

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没错。

Yeah.

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那将会非常强大。

Would be super powerful.

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但话说回来,目前还缺乏一些能力,使得智能体无法在内部创造太多价值。

But again, there's just like missing a missing capability set that doesn't allow agents to deliver a lot of value internally.

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目前实验室收入与预期相差四个数量级的原因在于,模型的能力远不及人类知识工作者。

The reason that lab revenues are four orders of magnitude off right now is that models are just nowhere near as capable as human knowledge workers.

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是的。

Yeah.

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我同意这一点。

I I agree with that.

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我有一点不太认同的是,他引用了斯蒂芬·伯恩斯的话说:'问问你自己'。

I the the one thing that I don't necessarily agree with here, he says, well, ask yourself, this quote from Stephen Burns.

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那些技能高超、经验丰富且具有创业精神的移民人类是如何做到立即融入经济体系的?

How do highly skilled, experienced, entrepreneurial immigrant humans manage to integrate into the economy immediately?

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他们确实某种程度上能立即融入经济体系,但移民流动其实是个缓慢的过程。

I mean, they do sort of integrate into the economy immediately, but, like, the the immigration flow is, like, a slow process.

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这并非一蹴而就的事情。

Like, it doesn't just happen immediately.

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移民数量不会突然从零激增到——比方说——百万人之类的规模。

It's not just, like, you know, the amount of immigration went from, like, zero to, like, I don't know, a million people or something.

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就像是,四处流动。

Like, it's, like, move around.

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这里存在一定的滞后效应。

There is, like, a there is a bit of a drag.

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但我理解他在这里表达的观点,确实有道理。

But I understand what he's saying here, and it does make sense.

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总之,让我来介绍一下public.com,为认真对待的人提供的投资平台。

Anyway, let me tell you about public.com, investing for those who take it seriously.

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他们提供多元资产投资服务,深受数百万用户信赖。

They got multi asset investing, and they're trusted by millions.

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Verge杂志也想掺一脚,试图用标题攻击David Sachs。

The verge is trying to get it on the action, trying to attack David Sachs with a headline.

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这简直太可笑了,先是《纽约时报》盯上David Sachs,现在Verge也想来插一脚。

It's like it's like so funny that the New York Times went after David Sachs, then the verge was like, we wanna go after him too.

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我们也想

We wanna get

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一些仇恨。

some of hate.

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等等。

Wait.

Speaker 1

等等。

Wait.

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让我们...让我们好好发挥。

Let us let us cook.

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我们听到所有人

We heard everybody

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在科技界都讨厌这篇文章。

in tech hates this this article.

Speaker 1

确实认为

Do think

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也讨厌。

hate too.

Speaker 1

嗯,虽然我不赞同这种新闻报道方式,但这个标题确实挺搞笑的。

Well, I while I don't agree with this journalistic approach, it is a pretty funny headline.

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是啊。

Yeah.

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哦,没错。

Oh, yeah.

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太滑稽了。

It's hilarious.

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标题是'硅谷正在团结支持一个糟糕的家伙'。

The the the headline is Silicon Valley is rallying behind a guy who sucks.

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这就像是在说,这是什么意思?

It's like, what does that mean?

Speaker 0

比如

Like

Speaker 1

纯粹就是。

Just pure.

Speaker 0

纯粹就是,定性式的,纯粹在骂人。

Pure, like, qualitative, like, just name calling.

Speaker 0

他们就是,我们不喜欢这家伙。

They're just like, we don't like this guy.

Speaker 1

纯粹的人身攻击。

Pure ad hominin.

Speaker 1

You

Speaker 0

知道吗,尽管去吧,如果你的粉丝喜欢,如果你的观众想要这样。

know, go off if people if people if your fans like it, if that's what your your audience wants.

Speaker 0

这就是在煽动愤怒情绪。

It's it's it's rage bait.

Speaker 0

肯定会火起来的。

It's gonna go hard.

Speaker 0

已经有一千个赞了。

It already got a thousand likes.

Speaker 0

在一篇关联文章中,《The Verge》每篇链接通常得不到一千个点赞,所以这表现已经超常了。

On a linked article, the verge is not putting up a thousand likes per link, so this is outperformance.

Speaker 0

而且,它的付费墙设置得很严。

And, it's heavily paywalled.

Speaker 0

不订阅那玩意儿,你就没法知道David Sacks有多烂。

You cannot learn how David Sacks sucks without subscribing to that thing.

Speaker 0

他们干得漂亮。

They did a good job.

Speaker 0

你得付钱。

You gotta pay.

Speaker 1

你得付钱。

You gotta pay.

Speaker 0

你想知道他为什么这么烂。

You wanna know why he sucks.

Speaker 0

我做到了。

I did it.

Speaker 0

你付钱了吗?

Did you pay?

Speaker 0

所以我不知道他为什么糟糕。

So I don't know why he sucks.

Speaker 0

但那真的会

But That'd be really

Speaker 1

很搞笑,如果付费墙后面写着:我们只是开玩笑的。

funny if behind the paywall is like, we're just kidding.

Speaker 1

实际上我们认为《纽约时报》这次搞错了。

He's actually We think the New York Times missed on this one.

Speaker 1

Who

Speaker 0

知道呢?

knows?

Speaker 1

保罗·格雷厄姆。

Paul Graham.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

在时间线上。

On the timeline.

Speaker 1

他说,一家初创公司告诉我,他们的一位投资人不喜欢他们向新成立的初创公司销售产品,而希望他们向资金更雄厚的大公司销售。

He says, a startup told me that one of their investors didn't like that they were selling to newly founded startups and wanted them to sell to bigger companies who have more money.

Speaker 1

如果投资人这么告诉你,就把他们当白痴忽略掉。

If investors tell you this, write them off as idiots.

Speaker 1

向初创公司销售是你能做的最好的事情。

Selling to startups is the best thing you can do.

Speaker 1

我相信今天我们讨论的许多公司未来都会向同批的其他公司销售产品。

I'm sure many of the companies we're talking with today will be selling to other companies in the batch.

Speaker 1

很多人,很多人会说这样不好。

A lot of people a lot of people, like, say that's bad.

Speaker 5

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

他们试图说,YC就像一个循环经济。

They try to say, like, a YC is a circular economy.

Speaker 1

但你必须忽略YC已经创建的数百家非常真实的企业,它们与世界上各类公司都有合作。

But you have to ignore the the hundreds of, very real businesses that have been created through YC and gone on to work with every kind of company in the world.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

目前看来,初创企业似乎确实更聪明、官僚主义更少、更能代表未来趋势。

It certainly seems, at this point, startups tend to be smarter, less bureaucratic, more representative to future trends.

Speaker 0

即使创业生态系统中存在某种封闭的循环经济,实际上也有巨大压力要求你交付真正有价值的东西,因为每一分钱都很宝贵。

Like, even if there's a, you know, some sort of insular circular economy in the startup ecosystem, like, there's a pretty immense amount of pressure to actually deliver something that's valuable because every dollar is precious.

Speaker 0

没错。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

这些是

These are

Speaker 1

这些每个创始人,是的。

these every found yeah.

Speaker 1

他们很理性。

They're they're being rational.

Speaker 1

并不是说...是的。

It's not like Yeah.

Speaker 1

我确信存在一些小案例,公司确实有过一些不良行为。

It's not like, I'm sure there's been small instances where companies were actually, you know, had had somewhat bad behavior.

Speaker 1

但总的来说,就像如果我要为你的SaaS产品付费...是的。

But in general, it's like if I'm gonna pay for your the SaaS Yeah.

Speaker 1

或者你正在运行的测试版工具,它必须足够好。

Tool or the beta that you're running, it has to be good.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

必须能用。

Has to work.

Speaker 0

你看到斯图尔特·布兰德了吗?

Did you see, did you see Stewart Brand?

Speaker 0

他说,Anthropic因在其AI训练中使用了48万本Brand的书籍,被判赔偿15亿美元。

He says, so there's a $1,500,000,000 judgment against Anthropic for including 480,000 Brand.

Speaker 0

书籍用于训练他们的人工智能。

Books in training their AIs.

Speaker 0

其中有五本是我的书。

Five of my books are among them.

Speaker 0

据我的经纪人马克斯·布罗克曼透露,每本书可能获得1500美元的赔偿。

Word is there might be a $1,500 payout per book according to my agent Max Brockman.

Speaker 0

这名字不错。

That's a good name.

Speaker 0

他说,我给我的经纪人马克斯写了下面这段话。

He said, I wrote them I wrote to my agent Max the following.

Speaker 0

如果有任何款项支付给我,请将其退回Anthropic公司,并感谢他们将我的书籍纳入他们的AI训练。

If any payment comes to me, please send it back to Anthropic with my thanks for including my books and their AIs.

Speaker 0

判决网站提供了退出赔偿的选项,但我发现操作起来很繁琐。

The judgment website offers a way to opt out of the payment, but I found it cumbersome.

Speaker 0

所以我没有这么做。

So I didn't.

Speaker 0

我有原则,但懒得做高度原则性的人。

I'm principled, but too lazy to be highly principled.

Speaker 0

我真的很喜欢这个。

I really like this.

Speaker 0

他是Long Now基金会的联合创始人,该基金会保持中立立场。

This is a he's the cofounder of the Long Now Foundation, which takes no sides.

Speaker 0

在这个论坛上,作为个人,我偶尔会表明立场。

In this forum, as a private person, I do take sides occasionally.

Speaker 0

所以我觉得这件事挺有趣的。

So I thought that was a funny thing.

Speaker 0

二级市场上欺诈行为层出不穷。

There are secondary market fraud going on left and right.

Speaker 0

但首先,让我介绍一下graphite.dev,这是AI时代的代码审查工具。

But first, let me tell you about graphite dot dev, code review for the age of AI.

Speaker 0

Graphite帮助GitHub上的团队更快地交付更高质量的软件。

Graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster.

Speaker 1

带我们了解一下这个。

Take us through this.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

阅读这段内容时,Matt Graham提到二级市场充斥着欺诈和不良行为者。

Reading through this, Matt Graham says secondary markets are rife with fraud and bad actors.

Speaker 1

看到这些底层投机者利用Andoril的增长牟利,同时通过不合理或不透明的费用结构剥削散户投资者,这让我感到痛心。

And it pains me to see these bottom feeders profiting off of Andoril's growth while fleecing retail investors through unreasonable or opaque fee structures.

Speaker 1

本周的荒谬事件中,Ignite VC这家我们从未会面或有过任何接触的基金。

In this week's episode of nonsense, Ignite VC, a fund we've never taken a meeting with or had any contact with whatsoever.

Speaker 1

由我们素未谋面的Brian创立,正在通过公开的Google文档向投资者募集资金,投资于一个SPV,该SPV又将投资于另一个SPV,后者可能最终与一位据称但未具名的早期Anderol员工签订远期合约。

Founded by Brian, who we've never met, is soliciting investors via public Google Docs to invest in SPV that will in turn invest in another SPV that will in turn potentially enter into a forward contract with a supposedly though unnamed early Anderol employee.

Speaker 1

嗯。

Mhmm.

Speaker 1

这里有几个问题。

Few problems here.

Speaker 1

首先,所谓的远期合约在私营企业中 notoriously 难以结算,且对手方风险极其真实。

First off, so called forward contracts are notoriously hard to settle in private companies, and counterparty risk is extremely real.

Speaker 1

那些复杂边缘情况怎么办?比如收购时股票无法交易,或是婚姻、离婚、死亡导致标的股票所有权复杂化的情况?

What about the many complicating corner cases like acquisitions where shares don't trade, or marriages, divorces, or deaths where ownership of the underlying shares is complicated?

Speaker 1

总体来说这是个风险很高的交易结构,我认为大多数人其实并不真正理解。

Just generally a risky structure to close that I don't think most folks actually understand.

Speaker 1

所以没错,如果你签订远期合约,本质上购买的是某些股票未来价值的权利,然后当有人结婚、离婚、去世,或是破产——这些情况下你可能根本无法收回投资,即便本该产生回报。

So yeah, if you enter into a forward contract and you basically buy the right to the future value of some shares, and then somebody gets, again, married or divorced or passes away, or bankruptcy is another situation where you might not be actually able to collect, even your investment should have generated some return.

Speaker 1

Matt指出第二点:这份交易备忘录基本没有包含Andoril的业绩细节,没有任何营收数据,也没有产品具体信息。

Matt says, second, this deal memo includes basically no details about Andoril's performance, no revenue figures whatsoever, no product specifics.

Speaker 1

我想这算是好事,对吧?

I guess that's good, right?

Speaker 1

如果他们真掌握了这些信息却随意散播的话。

Like, if they were if they were just floating around information that they had acquired.

Speaker 1

但不管怎样,继续讲,这几乎像是在怂恿投资者靠炒作和势头而非基本面来投资。

But anyways, continuing, almost as if it's soliciting investors to invest on hype and momentum and not fundamentals.

Speaker 1

总的来说,我会建议人们对任何缺乏基本细节的交易备忘录保持怀疑态度。

Generally, I'd advise folks to be skeptical of any deal memo lacking basic details.

Speaker 1

第三,远期合约被安德洛尔公司的股票计划和章程明确禁止,这意味着安德洛尔绝不会同意Team Ignite的SPV在我们私有期间实际持有这些股份,可能性为零。

Third, forward contracts are explicitly disallowed by Anderol's stock plan and bylaws, which means that Anderol will never consent to Team Ignite's SPV, actually taking possession of these shares while we are privately held, zero chance.

Speaker 1

最后,备忘录大部分时间都在讨论结构和费用问题,这些内容简直疯狂。

And finally, the memo spends most of its time talking about the structure and fees, which are insane.

Speaker 1

一个双层SPV结构,除了8%的前期费用、两年内3%的年费、20%的附带权益外,还要承担所有法律和行政成本通过,而最疯狂的部分是其隐含的每股价格简直荒谬至极。

A double layered SPV with all legal and admin costs pass through in addition to an 8% upfront fee, 3% annual fee for two years, 20% carried interest, and the craziest part, an implied price per share that is completely insane.

Speaker 1

在这种情况下,隐含每股价格比九个月前最近一次优先股融资高出115%。

In this case, the implied PPS is a 115% higher than the most recent preferred raise from nine months ago.

Speaker 1

虽然受宠若惊,但这也让这些投资者处于近乎荒谬的境地——他们支付的每股价格是我们最近交易价格的两倍多。

Flattered, I suppose, but also puts these investors in an almost absurd position by paying more than double the price per share of our most recent transaction.

Speaker 1

正如开头所说,我完全不认识布莱恩或Ignite团队。

As stated at the top, I don't know Brian or Team Ignite at all.

Speaker 1

也许他们是些善良的人,这一切都是个大误会。

Maybe they're kind of wholesome people, and this is all a big misunderstanding.

Speaker 1

但如果我是投资者看到这个所谓的'机会',我会逃之夭夭。

But if I were an investor looking at this, quote, opportunity, quote, I'd run for the hills.

Speaker 1

我相信创始人回复说:感谢提醒。

And I believe the founder the founder replied and said, appreciate the heads up.

Speaker 1

该文件是用于与现有有限合伙人讨论的内部草案,并非为公开传播而准备。

The document reference was an internal draft prepared for discussion with an existing LP and was not intended for public circulation.

Speaker 1

似乎是有人未经授权分享了它,我们正在调查此事是如何发生的。

It appears someone shared it without authorization and we're looking into how that happened.

Speaker 0

但你看到了吗?然后有七个人分享了他们收到的这份备忘录的邮件截图。

But do you see what And then There's like seven people that share a screenshot of like a direct email So they got with this exact memo.

Speaker 1

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 1

另外他们声明:不为任何与Andoril相关的工具征集投资。

And the other thing is they say not soliciting investment for any Andoril related vehicle.

Speaker 1

马特说,真的吗?

Matt says, really?

Speaker 1

这份草案是由你们的创始人和管理合伙人撰写的。

The draft was written by your founder and managing partner.

Speaker 1

我亲眼看着他实时编辑这份文件。

I literally watched him edit the doc in real time.

Speaker 1

而且他还有截图,显示谷歌文档里创始人的名字,你知道的,基本上

And he has a screenshot screenshot of like the the the founder's name in Google Docs like, you know, basically

Speaker 0

真是一团糟。

What a mess.

Speaker 0

什么

What

Speaker 1

总之。

a Anyways.

Speaker 0

好吧

Well

Speaker 1

所以别这么干。

So don't do this.

Speaker 0

别这么做。

Don't do it.

Speaker 0

不如你创办一家公司并申请加入Y Combinator?

Instead, why don't you start a company and apply to Y Combinator?

Speaker 0

去建立一个真正的企业,而不是到处兜售那些不愿出售股份的SPV和公司。

Build an actual business instead of going around hustling, SPVs and companies that don't wanna sell shares.

Speaker 0

但我们继续前进

But we are moving on

Speaker 1

将双层SPV融入我们的Y

Double to layer SPVs into our Y

Speaker 0

覆盖范围。

coverage.

Speaker 0

Harsh Tigar正在我们的重播等待室里。

We have Harsh Tigar here in the restream waiting room.

Speaker 0

让我们把他接入电视和超级直播。

Let's bring him into the TV and Ultra.

Speaker 0

哈什,非常感谢你在Y Combinator演示日这么忙的时候抽空来和我们交流。

Harsh, thank you so much for taking the time on a busy Y Combinator demo day to come talk to us.

Speaker 0

你最近怎么样?

How are doing?

Speaker 6

我挺好的。

I'm doing good.

Speaker 6

谢谢邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

Speaker 0

太棒了。

Fantastic.

Speaker 0

给我们说说,今天进展如何?

Take us through, how's the day going?

Speaker 0

日程安排是怎样的?

What is the schedule like?

Speaker 0

我很想深入了解你观察到的一些趋势,以及那些表现突出的公司。

And then I'd love to dig into some of the trends that you're seeing, some of the standout, companies.

Speaker 0

我相信我们会和其中很多公司进行交流。

I'm sure we're gonna be talking to a lot of them.

Speaker 0

不过,今天活动的流程是怎样的?我们现在处于整个毕业过程的哪个阶段?

But, what's the what's the run of the show today, and where are we in the course of the process of, you know Yeah.

Speaker 0

这些公司的毕业流程?

Graduating these companies?

Speaker 6

我们大约两小时前就开始了,早上十点左右。

So we got we got started, like, almost a couple of hours ago, ten in the morning.

Speaker 6

所以创始人和投资者们都聚集在一起。

And so the founders kind of investors all gathered together.

Speaker 6

他们进入YC办公室的主会场后,创始人开始进行演示,快速介绍他们的进展、产品、背景等,每人限时一分钟。

They get into the main room here at the YC office, and then the founders start giving presentations, talking about, like, the progress, what they build, themselves, their background, the pretty quick fire presentations, one minute each.

Speaker 6

然后在每组演示之间会有休息时间,投资者可以趁机和一些创始人交流见面,当然,希望最终能投资其中一批项目。

And then there's sort like a break in between sort of blocks of presentations where the investors can hang out and talk to some of the founders and get to meet them and, you know, obviously, hopefully invest in a bunch of them.

Speaker 6

所以我们差不多快到午餐时间了。

So that's kind of we're, like, we're just about approaching lunch.

Speaker 6

现在这个时段,大家已经听了一堆公司的介绍,可能对其中一些感兴趣的项目有了初步印象。

So it's kinda like that part of the day where people have, like, listened to a bunch of companies, probably got, like, a sense of some of the stuff that they're interested in.

Speaker 6

我看到现在人们正聚在一起谈生意。

I see people right now, like, just hanging out doing deals.

Speaker 6

所以氛围还挺欢快的。

So it's it's kinda like a fun vibe.

Speaker 6

现场气氛很活跃。

It's, like, live.

Speaker 0

这就是我们最棒的状态。

It's the best of us.

Speaker 0

集体投资环节。

Party rounds.

Speaker 0

我们超爱这种氛围。

We love it.

Speaker 0

真希望我们能在现场。

I wish we could be there.

Speaker 0

今年YC团队有没有分享什么关键指标或统计数据来开启演示日?

Are are there any, like, hero metrics or or stats that, the YC team shared this year to kick off demo day?

Speaker 0

你们最近是如何展示YC的整体情况的?

How are you how are you sharing, like, the shape of YC these days?

Speaker 7

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 7

我是说,我们这次没有

I mean, we didn't go

Speaker 6

过多强调统计数据。

too stats heavy this time.

Speaker 6

大概来说,延续了我们全年看到的趋势,就是这批公司的收入增长更快,能签下与大公司的合同。

Around, I think, I mean, at a high level, it's just the the continuation of the theme we've seen this whole year, which is just like the company during the batch are just getting faster revenue growth, assigning, like, contracts with, like, big companies.

Speaker 6

没错。

Yeah.

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