人工智能泡沫即将破裂吗？ | 亨里克·泽伯格

需要提升你的英语沟通能力来应对全球商务或国际旅行吗？

Need to improve your English communication skills for global business or international travel?

每周五天与林赛、米歇尔和奥布里一起在《全神贯注学英语》播客中学习英语。

Learn English five days a week with Lindsay, Michelle, and Aubrey on the All Ears English podcast.

闲聊、商务英语、语法等内容应有尽有。

Small talk, business English, grammar, and more.

《全神贯注学英语》每月下载量达400万次。

All Ears English is downloaded 4,000,000 times per month.

快来加入我们吧。

So come join us.

现在打开搜索栏，输入‘全神贯注学英语’并点击关注。

Open your search bar now and type in All Ears English and hit follow.

您正在收听的是《TED每日演讲》，我们

You're listening to TED Talks Daily where we

每天为您带来激发好奇心的新观点。

bring you new ideas to spark your curiosity every day.

我是主持人伊莉丝·休姆。

I'm your host, Elise Hume.

有时感觉这是人们唯一谈论的话题，但我们是否真的正经历着历史上最大的经济泡沫，横跨人工智能、大型科技股和加密货币？

It sometimes feels like it's the only thing anyone's talking about, but are we actually living through what may be the largest economic bubble in history spanning AI, mega cap tech stocks, and cryptocurrency?

在这场演讲中，金融分析师海因里希·泽伯格带我们穿越历史上的经济泡沫，从郁金香和南海股票到互联网热潮，展示了群体心理和投机如何不断引诱我们。

In this talk, financial analyst, Heinrich Zeeberg, takes us on a journey through history's economic bubbles from tulips and South Sea shares to the .com craze, showing how crowd psychology and speculation keep luring us in.

他表示，通过识别过去的这些模式，我们能更好地应对当下的狂热。

By recognizing the patterns of this past, he says, we can better navigate today's frenzy.

别以为你很特别。

Don't think you're special.

别以为你比我们懂得更多。

Don't think that you know more than we do.

这些是扬·滕定律中的部分论述，我认为这很危险。

These are some of the statements from the law of Jan ten, and I think that is dangerous.

我认为这实际上正在推动一种可能导致危险后果的群体思维。

I think that is actually driving a common thinking that can bring, you know, hazard outcomes.

今天，我想聊点可能略显枯燥的话题——比特币、加密货币泡沫和金融泡沫。

And today, wanna talk about something that may be a little more dry, which is Bitcoin, crypto bubbles, financial bubbles.

比特币是一种粪土病。

Bitcoin is a manure disease.

比特币是老鼠药的平方。

Bitcoin is rat poison squared.

这不是我说的。

These are not my words.

这是查理·芒格和沃伦·巴菲特的原话。

These are the words of Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett.

这两位是史上最杰出的投资者，最成功的投资家，职业生涯5000000%的回报率本身就说明了一切。

Two of the most prominent investors this world has ever seen, most successful investors, 5000000% in returns over their investment careers speaks for itself.

所以当他们发言时——遗憾的是芒格先生已离世——但当他们曾经发言时，我们必须倾听，而我确实认真听了。

So when they talk and speak, and unfortunately, Mr.

芒格先生虽已离世，但当他们发言时，我们必须倾听，而我确实铭记于心。

Munger is dead, but when they did talk or when did speak, we have to listen, and I definitely listened.

比特币当然经历了一段非凡的旅程。

Bitcoin has, of course, had a fantastic journey.

我们当然都需要赞叹这些年来它带来的惊人回报。

And we all need to praise, of course, the amazing returns that that has given over the years.

但当我们听说这件事时，自然会疑惑为什么世界上最成功的顶级投资者会把它说得像老鼠药一样。

And, but when we hear about it, of course, we have to wonder why are the top most successful investors in the world talking about it like rat poison.

我可以讲个亲身经历的故事。

And I can tell this personal story.

2016年时，我差点投资了比特币。

In 2016, I was close to investing in Bitcoin.

当时本打算购买价值约15万美元的比特币，按今天价格计算价值约2000到2500万美元。

Actually buying around maybe $150,000 worth of Bitcoin, which would today would have had a value of around 20 to $25,000,000.

但我最终没有这么做。

I didn't do it.

当时因为银行资金转账到钱包的操作困难，我没能完成这笔投资。

I didn't get to it because of the difficulties in actually getting the money transferred from a bank to a wallet back then.

但我有个朋友确实入场了，真的投身了加密货币浪潮。

But one of my friends actually did enter, did take the crypto plunge.

他投资的是以太坊，这是另一种加密货币。

And he entered Ethereum, which is another crypto.

当时价格是50美分。

At the time, it was at 50¢.

他一直持有直到价格涨到约1400美元。

And he held onto it until the moment it was actually reached around $1,400.

也就是2800倍。

So 2,800 times.

在加密货币领域获得成功的不止他一人。

And he's not the only one that has done well when it comes to crypto.

我们都听说过那些开兰博基尼的家伙，他们投资看似荒谬的东西，结果却涨了上百倍。

We've all heard of these Lambo guys or people that have jumped into something that seems, you know, ridiculous only to see it go up a 100 times.

不知道你怎么想，但我确实能感受到错失恐惧症（FOMO）。

I don't know about you, but I definitely can feel the FOMO.

FOMO是什么？

FOMO, what is that?

FOMO，即害怕错过（Fear of Missing Out）。

FOMO, fear of missing out.

害怕错过这种心理深深根植于人类思维中。

Well, fear of missing out is something that is very deep in the human mind.

这可以追溯到狩猎采集时代——作为群居动物，融入群体意味着获得食物、安全、配偶，而离群则充满危险。

It goes back to the times of, as we lived in hunters and gatherers, as in groups, Being part of the group ensured food, security, mating, and being outside was dangerous.

这种心理至今仍深刻影响着我们。

And that's something we have taken on to us today also.

如果我们不合群、不随大流——就像羊群效应暗示的那样——就会陷入危险境地。

If we are not part of the group, if we don't think alike, like the Yantel law is also kind of commending, well, then it's dangerous.

因此害怕错过（FOMO）是种根深蒂固的心理，可能让我们得出本不会有的结论，或做出独自一人时绝不会做的事。

So fear of missing out, FOMO, is something that is deeply in us and something that can make us maybe come up to conclusions or do things we don't necessarily would do if we were just ourselves.

这并非只有我这种蠢人，或所谓不懂行情的人才会有的心理。

And this is not something just maybe I as a stupid person or, you know, people that don't understand things do.

艾萨克·牛顿爵士可能是人类历史上最聪明的人之一。

Sir Isaac Newton is probably one of the most intelligent people that has ever lived.

而在18世纪，他实际上也成为了错失恐惧症（FOMO）的受害者。

And in the seventeen hundreds, he actually were a victim of FOMO.

那正是南海泡沫事件发生的年代。

So that was the time of the South Sea Bubble.

牛顿最初投资后看到股价上涨，赚了不少钱就退出了，但看到朋友们继续持有并变得更加富有。

Newton invested in, saw his stock rise, earned a good money, got out, but saw his friends actually staying in and becoming even more rich.

他在FOMO心理驱使下再次大举投资，结果泡沫破裂了。

He FOMO'd in, invested more, actually a lot, and the bubble burst.

他后来有句名言：'我能计算天体的运动，却算不出人性的疯狂'。

He famously said afterwards, I can calculate the movement of heavenly bodies, but not of the madness of men.

所以FOMO会让我们做出违背本意、甚至有害自身的事情。

So FOMO can make us do things we don't want, that can be against what we actually, yeah, what is good for us.

这种心理在所谓的'烟雾室实验'中体现的鲑鱼群体动态现象里也表现得非常明显。

And that is actually also very visible, the trout dynamics that is a part of, when we talk about what is called the smoked room experiment.

这是一项1968年的实验，一组求职者被邀请进入一个房间。

This is an experiment from 1968, where a group of applicants to a job are invited into a room.

九名求职者中有八人是演员。

Eight of the nine applicants are actors.

他们被告知无论发生什么都要保持就座，继续完成自己的任务。

They're told to stay seated, just work on their assignment no matter what happens.

其中一人是真正的求职者。

One person is a real applicant.

突然，当他们正在填写申请表时，烟雾从门缝涌入。

All of a sudden, they do their application, smoke comes through the door.

当其他八名演员在场时，90%的情况下人们不会起身报告。

When there are other people, the other eight actors are in the room, 90% of the time, people stay seated and do not report on the smoke, on the potential hazardous event that is unfolding.

但如果是单独一人时，75%的人会起身报告烟雾情况。

But when that person, the applicant, is alone, 75% of them got up and actually reported on the smoke.

群体动态确实会改变我们的思维方式。

So crowd dynamics is something that changes the way we think.

而这实际上也是我们目睹金融泡沫形成的原因之一。

And that is what actually also is part of why we see financial bubbles developing.

如果我们审视金融泡沫，就会发现17世纪30年代曾出现过最大的金融泡沫之一，被称为'郁金香狂热'。

If we look at financial bubbles, then we saw one of the largest financial bubbles back in the sixteen thirties, which was called Tulip Mania.

当时郁金香刚从奥斯曼帝国引入，不知何故成为了众人瞩目的焦点。

It was at a time where the tulip had been introduced from the Ottoman Empire, and for some reason, it became the center of attention.

人们开始购买它，一个疯狂的市场随之兴起，人们持续买入这些郁金香，并非因其实际用途，而是指望次日转手就能赚钱。

People started buying it, a fantastic market rose up, and people kept buying this tulip or the tulips, not because of its utility, but because they thought they could sell it off the next day to earn money.

泡沫在狂热达到顶峰时破裂，这正说明了它能疯狂到何种程度。

The bubble burst at the peak of that hype, of that mania, and that's just to explain how mad it can become.

当时一株郁金香球茎的价格相当于一栋房子。

One tulip bulb had the price of a house at that time.

接着我们可以快进到19世纪40年代的英国。

Then we can fast forward to the eighteen forties Britain.

那时正值一项神奇的技术问世。

And this was at a time where a fantastic technology came out.

蒸汽机与火车头的出现承诺要改变世界，而它们确实做到了。

Steam engine, the locomotive, promised to change the world, and it certainly did.

但问题是，所有人都认为这不仅能改变世界，还能带来财富。

But the thing was, everybody thought that this is now changing ways also we'll earn money.

所有人都陷入了FOMO（错失恐惧症）的狂热中。

Everybody FOMOed in.

成千上万家公司如雨后春笋般涌现并成立。

Thousands of companies rose up, were established.

人们认为这是一个稳赚不赔的机会。

People thought this is a cannot lose opportunity.

我们再次目睹了泡沫破裂，许多人因此蒙受损失。

And again, we saw how a bubble burst, and a lot of people actually lost money.

尽管这项技术确实非凡并改变了世界，但悲剧仍不可避免。

And this was still because even though there was a really fantastic technology that changed the world.

让我们快进到咆哮的二十年代——那是个特殊的时期，我们刚刚见证第一次世界大战的结束。

We can then fast forward to the roaring twenties, and try imagine, that was such a time where we just saw the we had just seen the end of the first world war.

我们见证了电气化。

We saw the electrification.

我们见证了汽车技术的诞生。

We saw the technology of a car.

我们见证了收音机的问世。

We saw radio coming out.

试着想象一下：你坐在寂静的家中，突然可以打开收音机听到有人对你说话。

Try imagine sitting there in your silent home, all of a sudden you can turn on the radio and you can hear people speaking to you.

那真是非同寻常。

That was quite something.

打开电灯，坐进汽车驾驶，而不再依赖马匹。

Turning on the light, getting yourself into the car and driving instead of having horses.

我们以为自己已经见识过技术的飞跃。

We think we have seen technology, a leap in technology.

但我可以告诉你，那才是真正的非凡。

Well, I can tell you that was special.

然后发生了什么？

And what happened then?

又一次，我们看到人们因FOMO（错失恐惧症）蜂拥而入，因为这当然是一个新世界。

Again, we saw people FOMO ing into it, because this is, of course, a new world.

这是新时代。

This is new time.

忘掉旧世界吧。

Forget about the old world.

一个巨大的泡沫随之展开。

And a massive bubble unfolded.

泡沫再次破裂，正如我们可能从学校了解到的，我们看到股市崩盘，目睹了美国等地因这种FOMO而引发的最后一次大萧条。

Again, it burst, and as we probably know, as we have heard from school, we saw the stock market crashing, we saw the last depression in The US and elsewhere because of this FOMO.

接着我们可以快进到一些我们可能还记得的事情，至少我们中那些头发稍显灰白的人还记得。

And then we can fast forward to something we may be able to remember, at least some of us, us with a little more gray hair.

那就是互联网泡沫时期。

So that was the .com bubble.

那正是另一项新技术问世的时代，就像蒸汽机和无线电一样。

And this was at a time where another new technology came out, just like the steam engine and the radio one.

现在我们有了互联网。

And now we have the Internet.

所有人再次全情投入。

And everybody again, full mode in.

有什么理由不喜欢呢？

What's not to like?

绝佳的机会。

Fantastic opportunity.

世界焕然一新。

The world is new.

他们称之为新经济。

New economy, they called it.

重点不再是你赚多少钱，而是你在营销上投入多少。

And it's not no longer about how much you earn, it's about how much you spend on marketing.

当时还有极好的支持。

And there were fantastic support to this.

华尔街全都支持它。

Wall Street were all behind it.

媒体也全都支持它。

Media were all behind it.

当时还有像Webvan和pets.com这样的媒体宠儿。

There were media darlings like Webvan and pets.com.

所以媒体对此大肆报道。

So the media were all over this.

所有人都在赞美这个崭新、奇妙而勇敢的世界。

Everybody was praising this new, fantastic, and brave world.

互联网改变了世界吗？

Did the Internet change the world?

毫无疑问。

Absolutely.

但这等同于承诺你看不到市场可能崩盘或人们会过度乐观吗？

But is that the same as a promise that you cannot see that the market can crash or that people gets exuberant?

不是。

No.

现在我想谈谈比特币，因为我认为比特币正是当前金融泡沫的典型代表，即当前的人工智能和加密货币泡沫。

So now I want to talk about Bitcoin because I think Bitcoin is in a is the very definition of this financial bubble we have at this point, AI and crypto bubble.

但在讨论之前，我们现在谈论的是Janta，不过我来自丹麦。

But before I do that, now we talk about Janta, but I'm from Denmark.

在丹麦，我们有一位著名的童话作家汉斯·克里斯蒂安·安徒生，他创作了《皇帝的新装》这个故事。

In Denmark, we have a famous fairy fairy tales teller, Hans Christian Andersen, who had the story or told the story of the emperor's new clothes.

当然，这是为那些还不了解这个故事的人准备的。

And this is the story for the ones who don't know it already, of course.

这个故事讲述了一位生活在帝国里的皇帝。

This is about the emperor who lived in empire.

有一天，两个骗子来到城里，他们都是裁缝。

And one day, two fraudsters came to town, and those were tailors.

他们能制作出他见过最神奇的衣服。

They would be able to make the most fantastic clothes that he had ever seen.

这样他就能显得格外光鲜，他非常虚荣。

So he could stand out really nice, he was very vain.

他当然被吸引住了。

And he, of course, got intrigued.

不过还有个前提条件：如果人们特别愚蠢或不称职，就看不见这些衣服。

There was still, however, this one caveat to it, that if people were especially stupid or were not good at what they do, they would not be able to see the clothes.

皇帝觉得这很有趣，就派他们去工作，两个骗子开始在织布机上编织制作衣服。

And the emperor thought that was interesting, and he sent them off, and they started to work the two fraudsters on their looms, weaving and making the clothes.

皇帝等不及了，派他最信任的大臣去查看进展。

The emperor got impatient and sent off his best adviser and said, can you go to see the check on how it's going?

大臣来到骗子面前，却看不见衣服。

The adviser came to the fraudsters and couldn't see the clothes.

他心想：如果我连这衣服都看不见，别人会怎么看我？

And he thought, what is that going to tell of me if I can't see that clothes?

我才不会那么做。

I'm not going to do that.

于是他回到皇帝面前说，哦，那真是太棒了，陛下。

So he went back to the emperor and said, oh, that's amazing, sir.

您一定会喜欢的。

You love it.

简直美妙绝伦。

It's fantastic.

皇帝心想，好吧，我得亲自去看看。

And then the emperor thought, okay, I gotta go see myself.

他去了，结果还是看不见衣服。

And he went, and again, he couldn't see the clothes.

他心想，这会让我的臣民怎么看待我和我的治国能力？

And he thought, what is that going to tell my people about who I am and how I run the country?

于是他就像他的大臣一样，选择了保持沉默。

So what he did was, again, like his adviser, to simply just keep silent.

那一天终于到来，按照惯例，皇帝应当身着新装游行街头，正如我们得到新衣服时总爱炫耀一样。骗子们帮他‘穿上’衣服后，他便走上了街道。

And the day came where he was supposed to walk down the street, as we do when we get new clothes, we like to show it off, and was the fraudsters helped him put on the clothes, and he walked down the street.

人群中所有人——尤其是精英阶层——都在赞叹这衣服多么美妙绝伦。

And everybody, all of the crowds, were saying how fantastic this was, especially the elite.

哇，这衣服太神奇了！

Wow, amazing garment.

直到一个小男孩喊出声来：可他为什么什么都没穿啊？

Until the little boy cried out, but why isn't he wearing any clothes?

现在我为什么要讲这个故事？

Now, why I'm saying that?

它的寓意是什么？

What is the morale?

当然是在说，有时候需要一个天真无邪——或许还带点幼稚——的心灵，才能道出那些显而易见的事实。

Of course, that sometimes it takes an innocent mind, naive mind maybe, to point out what is the obvious.

现在，我想谈谈比特币。

And now, I wanna turn to Bitcoin.

正如我所说，我们正面临有史以来最大的金融泡沫。

Because as I said, we currently have the largest financial bubble that we have ever seen.

我们刚刚讲述了四个巨大的泡沫案例，而我认为现在这个泡沫规模更为庞大。

We had just told you about four massive bubbles, and I'm claiming we have one that is even bigger.

沃伦·巴菲特和查理·芒格曾提出用市值与GDP比率来观察市场。

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger had a way of looking at the market capitalization to GDP.

这个比率越高，泡沫就越大。

The higher it is, the bigger the bubble.

2000年，巨大的泡沫。

2000, massive bubble.

后来我们对此嗤之以鼻。

We laughed at it afterwards.

当时比率高达136%。

It was a 136%.

2007年，这个比率是107%。

2007, it was at a 107%.

这就是我们当前的处境。

This is where we are today.

226%。

226%.

我们只需看看如今表现优异的一些企业。

And we can just look at some of the businesses that is doing well today.

正如我所说，这是加密货币和人工智能的泡沫。

As I said, a crypto and AI bubble.

英伟达，Palantir。

Nvidia, Palantir.

我的意思是，你不需要懂太多金融知识也能看出，15年内上涨94000%，这相当泡沫化了。

I mean, you don't need to know much about finance to see that 94000% in a matter of fifteen years, that's pretty frothy.

纳斯达克，比特币。

Nasdaq, Bitcoin.

比特币自2012年以来上涨了1200000.0%。

Bitcoin is up 1200000.0% since 2012.

所以现在人们说，是啊，但你知道，它还能继续上涨。

So now people say, yeah, but, you know, it can keep going up.

嗯，如果你有一个泡沫并且它破裂了，纳斯达克和比特币走势高度同步，而且你也知道纳斯达克在2001年那次比现在规模小得多的巨大泡沫后实际暴跌了85%。

Well, if you have a bubble and it bursts and Nasdaq and Bitcoin are following each other very, very closely, and you also know that Nasdaq actually tumbled, crashed 85% after 2001 in that massive bubble that is way smaller than what we have today.

现在猜猜比特币会怎样——每次我们看到纳斯达克下跌时，比特币的跌幅都会大得多。

Now guess what is going to happen to Bitcoin when Bitcoin crashes much, much more every time we see a decline in NASDAQ.

我认为比特币将暴跌95%。

I say Bitcoin is going to crash by 95%.

这可不是我们从媒体、学术界、大众和那些'皇帝的新衣'式讨论中听到的说法。

That's not what we hear when we hear the media, the academia, the crowd, and the emperor's new clothes talking about this.

此外我们还面临经济放缓的局面。

And then we also have a situation where we have a slowdown in the economy.

这非常明显。

It's very visible.

衰退正是泡沫破裂的温床。

A recession is where bubbles burst.

当泡沫破裂时，如果你持有那些暴跌的资产，你会受到伤害。

And when a bubble burst, you're gonna you're gonna hurt if you have those assets that are crashing.

假设右边的情况即将发生——经济衰退来临，纳斯达克指数在2001年下跌85%，而这次我们面临的是一个更大的泡沫，规模远超以往。

So let's say on the right, we have a recession coming and Nasdaq dropped by 85 in 2001, and we have a larger bubble this time, much larger.

如果经济陷入衰退，而我们又看到纳斯达克在这次AI泡沫中崩盘，会发生什么？

What is going to happen if the economy falls into a recession and we see Nasdaq crashing in this AI bubble we have?

我认为比特币和加密货币是一个巨大的泡沫。

I say, Bitcoin, crypto is a massive bubble.

这并不否认技术本身的价值，就像蒸汽机车、无线电等技术一样，但它并不等同于有保障的回报。

It doesn't take away that there is a technology just like in the locomotive steam engine, and also what we saw with the radio and so on, but it's not the same as guaranteed returns.

我认为我们将在不远的未来看到这一幕。

And I think we're gonna see this in a not too distant future.

这是一个即将破裂的泡沫。

It's a bubble that is going to burst.

我认为沃伦·巴菲特和查理·芒格是对的。

I think Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger are right.

比特币、加密货币就像性病一样。

Bitcoin, crypto, is like a venereal disease.

谢谢。

Thank you.

这是2025年瑞典马尔默TEDxLillaTorg大会上汉里克·泽伯格的演讲。

That was Hanrik Zeeberg at TEDxLillaTorg in Malmo, Sweden in 2025.

若您对TED的策展标准感兴趣，请访问ted.com/curationguidelines了解更多。

If you're curious about Ted's curation, find out more at ted.com/curationguidelines.

今天的节目就到这里。

And that's it for today.

TED每日演讲隶属于TED音频联盟。

Ted Talks Daily is part of the Ted audio collective.

本演讲经TED研究团队事实核查，由玛莎·埃斯特瓦诺斯、奥利弗·弗里德曼、布莱恩·格林、露西·利特尔和坦西卡·桑玛尼旺团队制作编辑。

This talk was fact checked by the Ted research team and produced and edited by our team, Martha Estevanos, Oliver Friedman, Brian Greene, Lucy Little, and Tansika Sungmarnivang.

本期节目由克里斯托弗·法伊兹·博根负责混音。

This episode was mixed by Christopher Faizy Bogan.

特别鸣谢Emma Taubner和Daniella Balarezo的协助支持

Additional support from Emma Taubner and Daniella Balarezo.

我是Elise Hu

I'm Elise Hu.

明天我将带着新鲜观点回归您的订阅内容

I'll be back tomorrow with a fresh idea for your feed.

感谢您的收听

Thanks for listening.

音乐人Scarlet Keyes在教授学生创作歌曲时表示，他们需要自问几个关键问题

When she teaches her students how to write a song, musician Scarlet Keyes says they need to ask themselves certain questions.

是什么让你夜不能寐？

What is the thing that keeps you up at night?

是什么让你念念不忘？

What's the thing you can't stop thinking about?

作为词曲作者，我们既是人性缩影，又需要用新视角、新歌词和新旋律来诠释世界

As songwriters, we are human tropes and a new viewpoint with new words, with new music.

那些为我们生活谱写背景音乐的人们与技术。

The people and technology behind the soundtracks of our lives.

这就是下期NPR TED广播时间的内容。

That's next time on the TED Radio Hour from NPR.

无论您通过何种平台收听播客，都请关注并订阅TED广播时间。

Listen and subscribe to the TED Radio Hour wherever you get your podcasts.