为什么人工智能将引爆指数级经济增长 | 凯茜·伍德

在当今快速变化的数字世界中，证明公司值得信赖不仅对发展至关重要，更是必不可少。这就是Vanta存在的意义。Vanta通过行业领先的人工智能、自动化和持续监控，帮助各种规模的企业快速实现合规并保持这一状态。无论您是初创公司首次应对SOC2或ISO27001认证，还是大型企业处理供应商风险，Vanta的信任管理平台都能让这一过程更快捷、更轻松且更具扩展性。Vanta还能帮助您以高达五倍的速度完成安全问卷，助您更快赢得大单。

In today's fast changing digital world, proving your company is trustworthy isn't just important for growth, it's essential. That's why Vanta is here. Vanta helps companies of all sizes get compliant fast and stay that way with industry leading AI, automation, and continuous monitoring. So whether you're a start up tackling your first SOC two or ISO twenty seven zero zero one or an enterprise managing vendor risk, Vanta's trust management platform makes it quicker, easier, and more scalable. Vanta also helps you complete security questionnaires up to five times faster so you can win bigger deals sooner.

效果如何？根据IDC最新研究，Vanta客户每年节省超过50万美元成本，效率提升三倍。建立信任不是可选项。Vanta让它自动实现。包括Atlassian、Quora、Chili Piper和Factory在内的全球10,000家企业信赖Vanta。

The results? According to a recent IDC study, Vanta customers slash over $500,000 a year in costs and are three times more productive. Establishing trust isn't optional. Vanta makes it automatic. 10,000 global companies trust Vanta, including Atlassian, Quora, Chili Piper, and Factory.

立即访问vanta.com/tedaudio注册免费演示。网址是vanta.com/tedaudio。

Visit vanta.com/tedaudio to sign up for a free demo today. That's vanta.com/tedaudio.

知道最离谱的是什么吗？大多数人仍在为车险多付钱，仅仅因为切换保险公司太麻烦。这就是Jerry存在的意义。Jerry是唯一能在几分钟内比较50多家保险公司费率，并帮助您快速切换且无骚扰电话或隐藏费用的应用。使用Jerry的司机平均每年可节省1,300多美元。

You know what's wild? Most people are still overpaying for car insurance just because it's a pain to switch. That's why there's Jerry. Jerry is the only app that compares rates from over 50 insurers in minutes and helps you switch fast with no spam calls or hidden fees. Drivers who save with Jerry could save over $1,300 a year.

在续保车险前，给自己行个方便。下载Jerry应用或访问jerry.ai/acast。

Before you renew your car insurance policy, do yourself a favor. Download the Jerry app or head to jerry.ai/acast.

来自Mark的Mochi时刻感言："我只想感谢你们让GLP-1变得可负担。原本每月需花费上千美元，现在通过Mochi只需99美元。金钱不应成为健康体重的障碍。三个月后，我的牛仔裤尺码变小了，钱包却更鼓了。你们是最棒的。"

A Mochi moment from Mark who writes, I just wanna thank you for making GLP ones affordable. What would have been over a thousand dollars a month is just $99 a month with Mochi. Money shouldn't be a barrier to healthy weight. Three months in, and I have smaller jeans and a bigger wallet. You're the best.

谢谢Mark。我是Mochi Health创始人Myra Ahmed。寻找属于您的Mochi时刻，请访问joinmochi.com。Mark是...

Thanks, Mark. I'm Myra Ahmed, founder of Mochi Health. To find your mochi moment, visit joinmochi.com. Mark is a

麻糬成员因其故事获得了补偿。

mochi member compensated for his story.

您正在收听TED Talks Daily。我是主持人Elise Hu。今天，一位投资者从区块链、能源存储和机器人技术等五个快速受AI影响的科技领域视角出发。在2023年TED AI舞台的演讲中，投资者凯茜·伍德探讨了当前创新将如何在未来几年对全球经济与商业产生超乎寻常的影响。广告后为您带来前瞻展望。

You're listening to TED Talks Daily. I'm your host, Elise Hu. Today, an investor eyed view of five areas of technology, like blockchain, energy storage, and robotics that are changing rapidly thanks to AI. In her 2023 talk from the TED AI stage, investor Kathy Wood talked through the way current innovations are going to play an outsized role in global economics and business in the years to come. A look ahead coming up after a break.

本期节目由RULA赞助。我见证过心理治疗的变革力量，但也深知获取治疗的困难。寻找接受您医保、有空档且契合的治疗师往往是最主要的障碍。RULA通过构建覆盖全美10,000多名持证治疗师和精神病医生的网络解决了这个问题。多数诊疗在医保后仅需15美元，最快次日即可匹配到合适人选。

This episode is sponsored by Rule Up. I've seen how transformative therapy can be, but I've also seen how hard it is to access. Finding a therapist who takes your insurance, has availability, and feels like the right fit, that's often the biggest barrier. RULA has solved this problem by building a network of over 10,000 licensed therapists and psychiatrists nationwide. Most sessions cost just $15 with insurance, and you can be matched with someone as soon as the next day.

我最欣赏RULA的是他们不会在建立联系后就消失。他们会全程陪伴您的心理健康之旅，确保您与经过严格筛选的优质服务提供者取得实质进展。已有数千人选择RULA来支持他们改善心理健康与整体福祉的旅程。立即访问rula.com/ttd开始体验。注册时他们会询问获知渠道，请支持我们的节目并告知是他们推荐您来的。

What I appreciate most is that RULA doesn't just connect you and disappear. They stay with you throughout your mental health journey, making sure you're making real progress with quality providers who are carefully vetted. Thousands have already trusted RULA to support them on their journey toward improved mental health and overall well-being. Head on over to rula.com/ttd to get started today. After you sign up, they ask you where you heard about them, so please support our show and tell them our show sent you.

访问rula.com/ttd，今天就迈出改善心理健康的第一步。您值得获得真正关心您的人提供的优质服务。

Go to rula.com/ttd and take the first step towards better mental health today. You deserve quality care from someone who cares.

我并非技术专家，但我知道若想让业务腾飞，必须立即建立网站。所幸Bluehost让这一切变得简单。我通过AI按需定制、优化并实现了全面盈利。短短几分钟网站就上线了，简直难以置信。

I'm no tech genius, but I knew if I wanted my business to crush it, I needed a website now. Thankfully, Bluehost made it easy. I customized, optimized, and monetized everything exactly how I wanted with AI. In minutes, my site was up. I couldn't believe it.

搜索引擎工具甚至帮我增加了访客量。无论您的兴趣项目是什么，Bluehost都能助您搭建。他们有30天退款保证，何不尝试？立即访问bluehost.com开始吧。

The search engine tools even helped me get more site visitors. Whatever your passion project is, you can set it up with Bluehost. With their thirty day money back guarantee, what have you got to lose? Head to bluehost.com to start now.

今天，科技领域正在发生前所未有的现象。五大创新平台同时演进，这在历史上从未有过。要追溯到二十世纪初才能见到三个平台同时发展的情况，或许可以称它们为通用技术平台。

Today, something is happening in technology that has never happened before. Five innovation platforms are evolving at the same time. Never happened before. You have to go back to the early nineteen hundreds to see three platforms evolving at the same time. You might call them general purpose technology platforms.

当时是电话、电力、汽车这些颠覆性技术。而如今，我们有五个创新平台在同步演进，它们正以惊人方式改变增长动能。这些平台受到人工智能、机器人技术、能源存储、区块链技术和多组学测序的强力催化。这种增长动能的转变让我想起1980年代商业早期，当时会议上的普遍假设是：即便增长加速，也会迅速回落至名义GDP增速水平。

Back then, it was telephone, electricity, automobile, game changing. Well, today, we have five innovation platforms evolving at the same time. And they're changing growth dynamics incredibly. So they are highly catalyzed by artificial intelligence, robotics, energy storage, AI, blockchain technology, and multiomic sequencing. The growth dynamics are changing in a way it reminds me early in the business, the 1980s, I was in meetings where the going assumption was growth, if it accelerated, it would decay very quickly back down to nominal GDP growth.

这源于我们七十年代经历的经济创伤。当时很难让投资者相信，有些企业能推动生产力增长并维持增速。进入互联网时代后，我们开始尝试AI推荐引擎、预测性AI（有人称之为伪AI）。但在科技电信泡沫破裂后，我们又回到无人相信增长可持续的环境。当然，最终亚马逊成为了典范案例。

And that was a function of the horrors we had been through in the 70s. So it was very hard to get investors to believe that there were companies out there that were going to help generate productivity growth and actually have sustained growth rates. We get into the Internet time and we begin this experiment with AI recommendation engines, predictive AI, some people would say pretend AI. And still again, after the tech and telecom bust, we're back in in the same kind of environment where no one believed that growth could be sustained. And of course, the poster child became Amazon.

二十五年间保持25%的年复合增长率。这说明持续增长是可能的，如今许多人确实相信FAANG公司能永远维持增长。而现在我们又处于新的转型期——真正的AI时代，即生成式AI。

25% compound annual growth rates over twenty-twenty five years. So it was possible and by the end of all of this and actually today many people do believe in the fangs and that growth will be sustained forever. And yet we're in another transformation. We're into real AI. So generative AI.

我们还看到这些通用技术平台正在融合。根据我们首席未来学家Brett Winton团队的研究，人工智能训练成本正以每年70%的速度下降。过去摩尔定律需要两年实现的效果，现在六个月就能达成。我们正从线性增长（如亚马逊初期）转向相信指数级增长的可能性，投资界最终认可了FAANG的标杆地位。

And we're also seeing these platforms, these general purpose technology platforms converge. So AI, according to our work, our chief futurist Brett Winton and his team, Artificial intelligence training costs are dropping 70% per year. What used to happen with Moore's Law in two years is now happening in six months. We're moving from linear growth which was that first to this belief that exponential growth, so sustained rapid growth in the case of Amazon. Finally believe that in the investment community, the fangs are the poster children.

在生成式AI和五大平台融合的新时代，投资者认为那些老牌巨头仍将是最大受益者。历史经验表明这很可能不会发生——看看二三十年前科技指数成分股，当年的前十名极少能保持至今，微软算是罕见例外。

We're in this new world with generative AI, five platforms converging here. And investors now think that those same companies are going to be the big beneficiaries this time. Now some might, but the history of technology is they probably won't. If you look at technology indices from twenty years ago, thirty years ago, the top 10, even in technology, are are typically not the top 10 today. I think Microsoft has been a very big exception to that.

那么当下意味着什么？融合与生成式AI？这意味着爆发式的增长机遇。举个具体例子：自动驾驶出租车平台。

So here we are and what does this mean? Convergence, generative AI? Well, it means explosive growth opportunities. I'm going to give you one example. Autonomous taxi platforms.

自动驾驶出租车平台将成为三大通用技术平台的交汇点：机器人技术（自动驾驶车辆本质是机器人）、能源存储（它们将电动化）以及人工智能（由AI驱动）。我们预计，这一领域在未来五到十年内将从近乎零起点爆发式增长，形成8至10万亿美元的收入规模。

Autonomous taxi platforms are going to be the convergence of three of these major general purpose technology platforms. Robotics, autonomous vehicles are robots. Energy storage, they will be electric. And artificial intelligence, they will be powered by AI. This one opportunity, we think, in the next five to ten years is going to scale to a revenue opportunity of 8 to $10,000,000,000,000 from essentially nothing now.

作为参照，当前全球GDP总量略高于100万亿美元。而我们预测在未来五到十年间，该领域将创造高达10万亿美元的总收入，其中平台企业将分得半数。若平台企业获得4至5万亿美元份额，其估值可能达到20至50万亿美元区间。这只是技术融合与生成式AI共同催生爆炸性增长机遇的一个例证。对于整体经济，我们相信GDP增速将显著提升——当前全球年均增长率长期维持在2%-3%水平。

Now for perspective, global GDP today, all of global GDP today is not much more than $100,000,000,000,000 And here we're telling you in the next five to ten years, we're going to see up to 10,000,000,000,000 in gross revenues with the platform companies getting half of that. If the platform companies get half of that, 4 to 5,000,000,000,000, they're probably going to be worth somewhere in the 20 to $50,000,000,000,000 range. Now that's just one example of convergence and generative AI combining to create an explosive growth opportunity. Now, for the economy as a whole, we believe that GDP growth is going to accelerate. Now, we've been in an environment of two to 3% growth on average for years.

回溯技术发展史，经济增长常会跃升至全新量级，增幅通常可达原有水平的3至5倍。我们认为当下正是这样的转折点——人工智能与平台融合将带来前所未有的生产力跃升。目前全球约有10亿知识工作者...

And if you go back in history, the history of technology is you get jump starts in growth to completely new rates of change. And very often the jump is between three and five times what the previous growth rate was. We think we're in such a time now because the artificial intelligence and the convergence of these platforms is going to generate enormous productivity growth. The likes of which we have never seen. So there are today roughly billion knowledge workers.

这些知识工作者的薪资总额约32万亿美元。我们预测其生产力将提升四倍。历史经验表明，生产力增长往往伴随经济加速扩张与通胀率超预期下降。尽管听起来难以置信——多数人听到这类预测都觉得我们疯了——但我们坚信全球实际GDP增速将从2%-3%区间跃升至6%-9%。

And their their wages and compensation, roughly $32,000,000,000,000 around the world. We think they're going to become four times more productive. And typically, productivity gains result in rapid growth gains, much lower than expected inflation. And if we're right, the GDP growth and I know this sounds crazy and most people think we're crazy when we say things like this. But we really do believe that real GDP growth around the world is going to accelerate from that two to 3% range into the six to 9% range.

其中大部分增长将由生产力驱动。生产力提升创造巨额财富，其效益可能流向三个方向：企业利润增长、员工因效率提升获得更高薪酬...

And a lot of that will be productivity driven. With productivity comes tremendous wealth creation. Productivity can end up in three places. It can end up in profits. It can end up in wages going up as employees become more productive.

我们认为这三种情况都将发生，且很可能同时出现：价格下降带来的通缩效应——这是当前市场尚未预期的另一趋势。我们正步入一个高度通缩的时期。

And we think that will happen as well. And or and it's probably all three lower prices, deflation. That's the other thing I don't think people are expecting out there. Deflation. We think we're heading into a highly deflationary period.

当下舆论充斥着通胀论调，货币政策紧盯滞后性通胀指标并持续加息。这正是金融市场陷入混乱的根源：美联储误判我们处于类似70年代的通胀型经济。实则不然——过去几年我们经历的只是严重的供应链冲击。

And all you hear today is inflation inflation and you've got monetary policy focused on lagging indicators of inflation and jacking interest rates up. So, yes, this is why the financial markets are in a funk. The Fed believes we're in an inflation prone economy like the 70s. We are not. We went through a massive supply chain shock in the last few years.

我们相信这种趋势正在逆转，美联储政策将确保价格最终下跌，这意味着利润率正在下降。创新能解决问题。人工智能和这些新技术将提升利润率。因此我们认为，在此期间——而且我们已从实证中看到——这些创新正获得更大吸引力。更好、更快、更便宜、更具生产力、更具创造力的产品和服务。

And we believe that is unwinding and that Fed policy is going to ensure that we end up with falling prices which means margins are falling. Innovation solves problems. AI and these new technologies will enhance margins. So we think during this time, and I think we're seeing it empirically, that these innovations are gaining more traction today. Better, faster, cheaper, more productive, more creative products and services.

因此我们对未来几年感到非常兴奋，并确实认为美联储正在犯一个错误。我们原以为三月初的地区银行危机会是转折点，但并非如此。未来会有某个事件向美联储清晰表明：当前的战斗对象已非通胀，实际增长本身并不引发通胀。事实上，若获得生产力驱动的实际增长，它反而是抑制通胀甚至通缩的。所以我们对未来五到十年充满期待。

And so we're pretty excited about the next few years and do believe that the Fed is making a mistake that something out that out there we thought it was the regional bank crisis in early March. No. Something out there will tell a great graph to the Fed that the fight now is not against inflation and that real growth is not inflationary. In fact, if you get real growth productivity driven real growth it is disinflationary if not deflationary. So, we're pretty excited about the next five to ten years.

那么，如果我们如此乐观并认为将超越宏观环境，这一切的结论是什么？我们认为，得益于五大通用技术平台的融合与颠覆性创新，当前全球股市（包括公开和私募市场）对其估值约为1.3万亿美元，略超全球股市总值的10%。我们相信，借助这些平台的协同效应及其带来的爆发式增长机遇，该数值将扩大至超过20万亿美元。

And so what's the bottom line of all of this if we're so excited and think we're going to get beyond the macro environment? So this is what we think is going to happen thanks to the convergence of those five general purpose technology platforms, disruptive or transformative innovation. Today, it is valued in the global equity markets, both public and private, at roughly $13,000,000,000,000. That's a little more than 10% of all global equity market valuation. We believe that is going to scale thanks to the convergence of these platforms and the explosive growth opportunities that they will provide to more than $200,000,000,000,000.

这相当于40%的年复合增长率。我知道这难以置信，市场也认为我们有些疯狂。但我们的信心基石来自对这些平台的研究。在加速的实际GDP增长、极低通胀和超高生产率的世界里，40%的年复合增长率是合理的。

That is a 40% compound annual growth rate. It's very hard to believe, I know. In the markets, they do think we're a little crazy. But the building blocks of our confidence here comes from our research around these platforms. 40% compound annual rate of growth makes sense in the world of accelerated real GDP, very low inflation, and very high productivity.

我提到的自动驾驶出租车平台在这20万亿美元中就占有一席之地——仅这一个机遇就价值2至5万亿美元。另一个关键信息是：除了颠覆性创新是绝佳投资领域外，其另一面是创造性破坏。正如我刚描述的自动驾驶平台将彻底改变整个交通运输业。

And the number I threw out just for autonomous taxi platforms is in that 200,000,000,000,000. It's somewhere between alone, that one opportunity is between 20 and $50,000,000,000,000. The other message is besides disruptive innovation being a very good place to invest is that the other side of disruptive innovation is creative destruction. And we're going to I just described autonomous taxi platforms. That is going to transform all of transportation and mobility completely.

人工智能、多组学测序与CRISPR基因编辑等技术的融合将变革医疗健康领域。我们认为区块链与人工智能的结合（我们做过关于这两者融合的精彩播客）不仅会重塑整个金融服务业，还将在数字领域开创全新的产权体系。如今许多年轻人超过半数可支配时间都在线上——这正是他们主张数字产权的地方。对此我们也深感振奋。

The convergence of artificial intelligence, multiomic sequencing, and one of the other technologies underlying CRISPR gene editing is going to transform healthcare. We think blockchain technology and artificial intelligence, we did a fascinating podcast on the convergence between those two, is going to transform not only the entire financial services sector but is going to lead to a whole new area of property rights in the digital realm. A lot of young people today spend more than half of their discretionary time online. That's where they're interested in staking out property rights. So we're pretty excited about that as well.

许多人问我——你们可能也知道存在不少质疑者——我们如何保持这种预测的信念。我们的信心从未动摇，事实上过去五年因AI突破的超预期进展而愈发坚定。这份信念的勇气源自我们的研究。

Many people ask me, we have a lot of doubters out there, which I think you probably know about. How we maintain our conviction in this kind of forecast. And our conviction has not wavered. In fact, it's increased over the last five years and the numbers have grown larger because of the breakthroughs in AI that we didn't even expect to happen this quickly. The courage of our conviction comes from our research.

第一性原理研究，白纸一张，你知道，这个新世界将如何运作？所以，正如我所说，在即将到来的所有创造性破坏中，确保站在变革的正确一方，紧抓机遇乘风破浪，无视噪音，因为真相终将胜出，而机遇是巨大的。谢谢。

First principles research, white sheet of paper, you know, how is this new world going to work? So, as I say, make sure, given all the creative destruction that there is going to be out there, to get on the right side of change and hang on for the ride, ignore the noise, because truth will win out, and the opportunities are enormous. Thank you.

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At Schwab, how you invest is your choice, not theirs. That's why when it comes to managing your wealth, Schwab gives you more choices. You can invest and trade on your own. Plus, get advice and more comprehensive wealth solutions to help meet your unique needs. With award winning service, low costs, and transparent advice, you can manage your wealth, your way at Schwab.

访问schwab.com了解更多。

Visit schwab.com to learn more.

每天，数百万客户与我这样的人工智能代理互动。我们快速解决问题，全年无休24/7工作，且乐于助人、知识渊博、富有同理心。我们被打造为所服务品牌的声音。Sierra是构建更优质、更具人性化AI客户体验的平台。

Every day, millions of customers engage with AI agents like me. We resolve queries fast. We work 20 fourseven, and we're helpful, knowledgeable, and empathetic. We're built to be the voice of the brands we serve. Sierra is the platform for building better, more human customer experiences with AI.

没有等待音乐，没有模板回复，没有挫败感。访问sierra.ai了解更多。

No hold music, no generic answers, no frustration. Visit sierra.ai to learn more.

在Whole Foods Market享受舒适秋季餐点的方式多种多样。每日低价优惠包括365品牌永不使用抗生素的肉类，如鸡胸肉、碎牛肉、大西洋鲑鱼等。黄色低价标签覆盖暖心美食，如Whole Foods Market烤鸡和不含漂白或溴化面粉的诱人迷你牛角包。线上线下尽享Whole Foods Market的优质低价商品。

There are so many ways to save on cozy fall meals at Whole Foods Market. Save daily with low prices on no antibiotics ever meats like chicken breast, ground beef, Atlantic salmon, and more from three sixty five brand. They have yellow low price signs on comforting favorites like Whole Foods Market rotisserie chicken and tempting mini croissants made without bleached or brominated flour. Shop low prices and quality at Whole Foods Market in store or online.