298. 菲亚特标准讲座第17讲：比特币成本效益分析

《经济学原理：我的经济学完全指南》现已推出精装版、有声书和电子书，可通过safedeen.com、亚马逊及全球众多书商购买。目前我正在safedeen.com网站上开设基于本书的课程。《经济学原理》课程将贯穿整个学年（9月至次年6月），每两周更新一次讲座，并设有每周在线讨论研讨会，面向全球各行各业的学习者开放。无论你是学生、职场人士还是退休人员，每天都在做经济决策，本课程将为你提供数百年来经济学家的智慧结晶，助你提升经济决策能力。报名课程还可免费获赠《经济学原理》一书。

Principles of Economics, My Complete Guide to Understanding Economics, is now available in hardcover, audiobook and ebook from safedeen.com, Amazon, and many more booksellers worldwide. And now, I am also teaching a course based on this book on my website safedeen.com. Principles of Economics will run the whole academic year, from September to June, and will have a new lecture every two weeks, as well as weekly live online discussion seminars, open to learners from all over the world, and from all walks of life. Whether you are a student, a professional, or a retiree, you are making economic decisions every day, and this course will arm you with the wisdom of centuries of economists to improve your economic decision making. You'll also get a free book of Principles of Economics if you sign up for the course.

立即访问safydean.com报名。大家好，欢迎来到法定货币标准在线课程第17讲。今天讲座的主题是比特币成本效益分析。在第12章我们分析了法定货币体系的成本效益，本章我们将对比特币货币体系进行同样的分析。首先，我认为必须强调理解比特币的一个关键点——这是我在多年观察法定货币经济学家讨论比特币时发现的。

Go to safydean.com and sign up now. Hello and welcome to lecture 17 of the fiat standard online course. Today's lecture's topic is a bitcoin costbenefit analysis. So in chapter 12 we performed the cost benefit analysis for the fiat system, and in this chapter we're going to do the same for the Bitcoin monetary system. So to begin with, I think it's important to emphasize a really a pivotal point in understanding Bitcoin, which I've come to observe over years of listening to and watching fiat economists discuss Bitcoin.

这个观点就是：法定货币经济学家由于成长于自上而下定义知识、信息、理论和事实的体系——这些认知通过行政命令层层下达。法定议程、法定货币、中央银行决定了什么是正确、真实和合法的，然后传递给研究议程和经济学家，再由他们普及给大学生、杂志读者和报纸读者——知识就是这样被强加的。从这个视角你能发现，这种现象不仅存在于经济学领域，而是渗透所有学科。所谓合法信息的标准本质上由顶层通过资金（尤其是央行资金）决定。在经济学领域，你不可能在主流期刊发表质疑中央银行存在合理性的论文，因为议程设置权掌握在央行手中。

And it is the idea that fiat economists, because they come from a fiat background, wherein knowledge and information and theories and facts are determined from the top down, know, they're passed down by fiat. So the fiat agenda, fiat money, the fiat central bank determines what is correct, what is true and what is legitimate, and then that is passed down to research agendas, to economists, who then popularize it to university students, and to magazine readers, and newspaper readers, and that's how knowledge is imposed. And so from this perspective, you see how you know, you can see it reflected in all kinds of sciences, not just in economics and everything. It's top down, the ideas of what constitutes any kind of legitimate information comes from the top, and it's determined by financing essentially, by central bank financing, particularly in the field of economics. You know, you can't get published in mainstream economics journals if you question the existence of a central bank, because the central bank is what determines this agenda.

这并非什么邪恶阴谋，只是研究议程的起点总是'中央银行应该做什么'。如果你的结论是'中央银行不该存在'，央行自然没有动力资助你的研究——他们不可能资助否定自身存在价值的研究。讨论自身存废问题本就不在他们的议程范围内。他们的核心任务是制定最佳行动方针，而非思考存在主义问题。

And you know, this isn't some nefarious conspiracy, it's just the research agenda starts from the starting point of what should the central bank do, and so if your conclusion is well the central bank shouldn't exist, there's not much point for the central bank to finance you, because they're not going to finance study that says that they shouldn't exist. It's not something they can do. It's not their agenda to discuss whether they should exist or not. They're not in the business of asking existential questions. They're in the business of figuring out what the best course of action for them to follow is.

因此对法定货币经济学家而言，现实由行政命令定义。在法定货币教科书里，政府创造货币，所以非政府货币根本不可能运作。我认为法定货币支持者理解比特币的最大障碍在于：他们认为非法定货币不可能运作——没有政府怎么可能存在货币？人们怎么可能达成共识？

So for fiat economists, reality is determined by fiat. And so in fiat textbooks, government creates money, and so non governmental money simply cannot work. That's I think the main impediment that fiat people have towards understanding Bitcoin is that in their mind fiat money just cannot work. Sorry, non fiat money cannot work, because you know without government how could we have money? How could we agree?

如果我想用贝壳当货币，别人想用书桌当货币，我们怎么交易？在理想状态下，仁慈的政府会告诉我们：既不能用贝壳也不能用书桌，必须使用政府信用货币——这样才能实现交易。在他们的认知里，现实和货币都由行政命令强加，所以非法定货币绝对行不通。但现实中，非法定货币当然可以运作。真正的经济学家会试图理解经济现象背后的成因。

What if I want to use seashells as money and somebody else wants to use desks as money, how can we trade? Well if we have a benevolent government, the government tells us no you can't use seashells, you can't use desks, and let's just use our credit, and then that allows us all to trade with one another. In their world, reality is imposed from fiat, and money is imposed by fiat. So non fiat money just simply cannot work, but in reality of course it works. Now, a real economist would try to understand what it is that makes an economic phenomena happen.

为什么人们会采取特定行为？我认为这才是经济学家该做的理性研究：观察人们的行为动机，理解其行动逻辑——为何他们会自由选择某种特定行为？但对非正统经济学家来说这是理性研究，对法定货币经济学家则不然。

Why is it that people behave in a certain way? This is, I think, the rational thing for an economist to do. Look at why people behave in a certain way and try and understand the rationality of their actions. Why do they freely choose to act in that particular way? But for non fiat economists, that's the rational thing to do, but for fiat economists, no.

在经济学诸多领域都能看到这种现象：经济学家们总是试图向世界解释为何世界是错的，向人们解释他们的行为为何是错的，为何不该做正在做的事，并抛出各种理论来证明现实是错的、这些行为不该存在。在他们眼中，比特币不该有效，因为它不符合他们的理论——这就是他们的终极结论。但在现实世界，比特币不仅有效运作，而且因其持续被使用而生生不息：它逐年发展壮大，安全性不断提升，用户群体持续扩张。因此，与其试图用法定货币那套强制人们该如何看待比特币的思维，不如去理解比特币为何有效的内在逻辑——这正是本章的核心要义。现在让我们进行成本效益分析。

You see this in many fields of economics, where the economists puts themselves in a position where they are trying to explain to the world why the world is wrong, and they're trying to explain to people why their actions are wrong, why you shouldn't be doing this thing that you're doing, and here are my theories that explain to you why reality is wrong and why you shouldn't doing them. And so in their world, Bitcoin shouldn't work because it doesn't fit their theories, and that's the end of it. But in the real world, Bitcoin works, and it works because people continue to use it, and it continues to operate, it continues to grow every year, and it continues to get more secure, and it continues to gain more and more users. So let's instead of trying to use the fiat approach of trying to impose on people what they should think about Bitcoin, let's try and understand the logic of why Bitcoin works, that's the point of this chapter. So let's perform a cost benefit analysis.

让我们看看运行比特币的成本与收益。比特币的主要成本在于电力消耗，这是核心所在。比特币的难度系数和出块时间能清晰反映全网算力水平。比特币矿机有明确的功耗与算力参数，通过分析全网矿机组成结构，我们可以准确估算网络算力。截至撰稿时，比特币年耗电量约1000至1500亿千瓦时。

Let's see what are the costs of running Bitcoin, and what are the benefits of running Bitcoin. So the costs of Bitcoin are primarily in terms of electricity, and that's the main thing. Bitcoin difficulty and block time gives us a very good idea of the hash rate on the network. Bitcoin machines have clear specifications of their electricity consumption and hash output, and by making assumptions about the composition of the machines on the network, we can get a good idea of the hash rate that is on the network. And at the time of writing, Bitcoin consumed around 100 to 150 terawatt hour per year.

这个数字非常惊人。必须明确认识到，这是极其庞大的电力消耗，绝非小数目。

And that is a lot. Make no mistake about it. That is a lot of electricity. It's not a small amount of electricity. It's a huge amount of electricity.

正如前一章讨论过的，这个事实无法粉饰——它就是消耗了大量电力。但所谓'粉饰'或真相其实是...其实根本不该用'粉饰'这个词（因为糖分有害健康），真相就是它确实消耗巨量电力，而这完全值得。因为如第十六章所述，首先这些电力几乎都低于国际电价水平。全球平均电价约为每千瓦时0.14美元。

As we discussed in the previous chapter, there's no way of sugarcoating this. It's a lot of electricity. But the sugarcoating or the reality is, well, there's no sugarcoating because sugar is bad, but the reality is that it does a lot of electricity and that is because it is worth it. Because as we discussed in chapter sixteen, first of all this is almost all electricity that is cheaper than international prices for electricity. So the average cost of electricity in the world is around $0.14 per kilowatt hour.

比特币挖矿用电价格多在每千瓦时2至5美分。此刻我录音的时间是2022年11月，正值《法币标准下的比特币》出版一周年。比特币价格约16000美元，挖矿难度持续飙升，竞争异常激烈。大量矿场倒闭，只有能效最高的矿工才能存活，这意味着唯有获得最低电价的矿工才能坚守阵地。

The majority of Bitcoin electricity is around $02 to $05 per kilowatt hour. And right now, as I'm recording this, this is November 2022, one year after the publication of the Bitcoins of the Fiat standard. The price of Bitcoin is around $16,000 and the difficulty for Bitcoin has been shooting up. And so Bitcoin is enormously competitive. So many miners are going out of business, Only the most efficient miners are still in business, and that's why only the ones that have the cheapest costs for electricity are able to stay in this business.

自本书成稿以来，当前这轮熊市可能已淘汰了那些每千瓦时6-7美分成本的矿工。我认识一些电费成本在此区间的矿工，他们现已无法维持矿机运转——这个电价水平仅为全球均价的一半。也就是说，即便你拥有极低电价（低于全球均价一半），目前在比特币网络上仍缺乏竞争力，很可能已被淘汰。以2021年1000至1500亿千瓦时的耗电量，结合每千瓦时2-5美分的电价计算，年电力成本约在20至60亿美元之间。

So this current bear market, since the book has been written, has probably even wiped out miners who are mining at 6 or 7¢ per kilowatt hour. I know miners who have that electricity cost and they can no longer keep their mining machines running anymore. That's half of the average electricity cost worldwide. So even if you're mining, even if you have extremely cheap electricity, less than half of the global average, you are still not able to mine competitively on the Bitcoin network right now and you're getting likely wiped out. So at around 100 to 150 terawatt hours over the year of 2021, and at an electricity cost of around 2 to 5¢ per kilowatt hour, we're talking about a electricity consumption of around 2 to $6,000,000,000 per year.

这就是比特币挖矿的电力消耗规模——价值20至60亿美元的电力投入，我认为这个估值是合理的。说完电力成本，再来看看安全成本：比特币的整体安全成本不仅包含电力，还包括矿场安防、矿机设备及配套设施的维护投入。比特币挖矿竞争极为激烈。

That's the amount of electricity. That's the cost of the electricity that went into mining Bitcoin, 2 to $6,000,000,000 worth of electricity, I think is a reasonable estimate of how much electricity has gone into Bitcoin. So that's the cost of electricity. Now moving on to the security cost, the overall security cost of Bitcoin is not just electricity, you know, also need to secure the mining facility, the mining equipment and the facilities that are needed to make those miners run. Bitcoin mining is very competitive.

部分矿工盈利是因为他们的成本低于平均水平，而亏损的矿工则因成本过高。高成本者终将被淘汰，低成本者则会因难度调整导致成本上升。因此，若你的挖矿成本显著高于行业均值或区块奖励价值，这种偏差迟早会被市场力量抹平。若你的挖矿成本远高于区块奖励，很可能会破产；反之若成本过低，要么你会扩张业务推高成本（比如使用低效电力），要么更多低成本竞争者涌入导致全网难度上升，最终吞噬你的利润空间。

Some miners make a profit because their cost is lower than the average cost, some make a loss because the cost is higher. Those whose cost is higher get eliminated, and those whose cost is lower will have difficulty adjustment rise to raise their costs eventually. So if you're mining at a significant deviation from the average cost of mining, or if you're mining at a significant deviation from the value of the block reward, then that deviation is likely going to get wiped out one way or the other. So if your cost of mining is much higher than the block reward, then you are likely going to go out of business, because you're not going to be profitable. And if your cost of mining is much lower than the block reward, then you are likely going to either you're going to expand your business and raise your mining costs, because you will use less efficient sources of electricity, or you will witness the more and more people enter into the business at a lower cost, and that will lead to the difficulty rising, and then that will cause your profitability to disappear.

总体而言，挖矿总成本基本与网络总奖励相当。比特币网络每十分钟产出约6.25个BTC作为矿工奖励，这大致等同于矿工投入的总资源量。当矿工支出远低于此值时，为保障利润会追加投入直至利润消失；反之若持续超额投入，大量矿工将退出直至成本回落。

So overall, we can say that the total cost for mining is roughly in the range of the total rewards from the network. The network is handing out rewards for mining Bitcoin. Every ten minutes, there's a new block currently with about six and a quarter Bitcoin being handed out in rewards for miners every ten minutes. And that I would believe is roughly equivalent to the total amount of resources that are being spent by miners on mining. Miners were spending a lot less than that, then as I said, more money will be spent in order to secure the profits, and that would eliminate the profits, and they were spending a lot more than the opposite would happen if they keep spending more than a lot of miners would go out of business until the cost drops.

我认为区块奖励价值能准确反映挖矿总成本。现在插播赞助商信息：《比特币标准》播客由Daylight Computer赞助——这是我最爱的电脑，因为我常在清晨、深夜或户外阳光下工作。普通屏幕在这些场景下表现糟糕且伤眼，多年来我一直想找款类纸电子屏设备却始终未果。

So I think the value of the mining reward is a good estimate of the total amount of cost for the process of mining. So now for a quick word from our sponsors. The Bitcoin Standard podcast is brought to you by the Daylight Computer, my favorite computer, because I love to work early in the morning, late at night, outdoors and in the sun. But regular computer screens are terrible at these times and they can hurt your eyes. For years, I've wanted a paper like electronic screen I could use to write but never found a decent one.

现在一群比特币爱好者终于打造出这款全功能类纸平板，护眼且适合户外使用。我使用Daylight Computer已超一年，强烈推荐并因此投资了该公司。他们新推出了儿童版——专注学习无干扰的纯净电脑：无成人内容、无广告、无追踪、无社交、无垃圾信息。

Now, a group of Bitcoiners have finally delivered a fantastic full function tablet with a paper like screen that's easy on your eyes and great for outdoor use. I have been using the Daylight Computer for more than a year now and I cannot recommend it enough. And it's led me to invest in the company. Now they've introduced a new Daylight Computer for kids. A calm computer to help your kids focus with no distractions, no mature content, no ads, no tracking, no social media and no junk content.

Daylight是真正适合您与孩子的低时间偏好电脑。查看我在第249期对创始人Anjan Kharta的专访，访问daylightcomputer.com了解这款惊艳设备（儿童版输入优惠码SAFE可享9折）。在法币持续贬值的时代，财富保值已非选择而是财务与道德刚需。

Daylight is the real low time preference computer for you and your children. Check out my interview with founder Anjan Kharta in episode two forty nine and go to daylightcomputer.com to see this amazing machine or kids. Daylightcomputer.com to see the kids version and use code SAFE to get 10% off your purchase. With fiat money constantly debasing, preserving your wealth isn't an option or luxury. It's a financial and moral imperative.

熟悉我的人都知道，我唯一的财务建议就是长期持有比特币，这个建议从未让人失望。若你想购买比特币，我强烈推荐Swan——由专注比特币普及的硬核团队运营。当大众疲于应对危机时，Swan Private客户早已布局绝对稀缺资产比特币。他们服务认同比特币作为跨代财富基石理念的家庭与机构。

If you are familiar with my work, you know the only financial advice I ever give is to buy and hold Bitcoin for the long term. This has never failed anyone. If you want to buy Bitcoin, I strongly recommend using Swan, a group of hardcore Bitcoiners laser focused on making Bitcoin easily accessible. While most scramble to react to each new crisis, Swan Private clients are already positioned in the only monetary asset with absolute scarcity: Bitcoin. Swan Private partners with families and institutions who share a principled conviction in Bitcoin as the foundation for multi generational wealth.

Swan团队通过专属服务、专业知识和极致安全体系，帮助客户逃离崩塌的法币系统，用健全货币守护未来。目前Swan Private已为5000多名高净值客户购入超45亿美元比特币并冷存储。若你已认清法币谎言，请访问swan.com/safesaif开启比特币长期战略。《比特币标准》播客由比特币硬件制造商CoinKite赞助。

With Concierge service, deep expertise, and uncompromising security, the Swan team helps clients exit the crumbling fiat system and secure their future in sound money. Today, Swan Private serves more than 5,000 high net worth clients who have purchased more than $4,500,000,000 of Bitcoin and put it into cold storage. If you're ready to move beyond the false promises of fiat, start your long term bitcoin strategy at swan.com/safesaif. The Bitcoin Standard Podcast is brought to you by CoinKite. CoinKite are my favorite makers of Bitcoin hardware.

他们生产了传奇的OpenDime——首个比特币实物资产，还有可靠的Coldcard硬件钱包、优质的不锈钢助记词板以及区块时钟。现在CoinKite推出了Sats卡，这种信用卡大小的卡片能存储比特币，是绝佳的礼品选择。CoinKite最新推出的限量版Bitcoin Standard Sats卡印有Bitcoin Standard标志，可在coinkite.shopbitcoinstandard购买。

They produce the legendary OpenDime, the first Bitcoin bearer asset, as well as the reliable Coldcard hardware wallet, the excellent stainless steel seed plates for storing your seed phrases, and the block clock. Now, CoinKite have produced the Sats card. A card the size of a credit card which can store bitcoin and works great as a gift. CoinKite have just produced a limited edition gorgeous Bitcoin Standard Sats card which carries the Bitcoin Standard logo and you can get it from coinkite. Shopbitcoinstandard.

使用优惠码BitcoinStandard可享5%折扣。从比特币网络启动到2021年7月，矿工获得的总挖矿奖励约294亿美元，这大致可视为矿工投入的总成本。虽然具体花费有高有低，但这是衡量矿工平均成本的可靠指标。截至2021年7月，比特币的运行成本约为300亿美元，可以说矿工们为支撑比特币网络已投入约300亿美元。

Use the code BitcoinStandard to get 5% off your purchase. The total amount of mining reward handed to miners from the network inception until July 2021 is about $29,400,000,000 That can approximately count as the total cost that miners have spent. Again, have spent less, some have spent more than the average, but this is a good indicator of the average cost that miners have incurred throughout their time. So Bitcoin has cost people around $30,000,000,000 to run up until July 2021. So until July 2021 likely miners have spent around $30,000,000,000 in order to make Bitcoin possible.

关于比特币的收益——既然成本是300亿美元，那么比特币带来的首要收益就是提供了安全的储蓄方式。比特币让我们能够抵御通胀、防盗防没收地存储财富。它以电力和硬件为输入，产出抗通胀防欺诈的储蓄价值。衡量其储蓄效率的方法，就是对比建设成本与其存储的货币价值。

And the benefits of Bitcoin, so this is the cost, so $30,000,000,000 in total is how much Bitcoin has cost us. Now the benefits of Bitcoin are number one, it has given us secure savings. Thanks to Bitcoin, we're able to save, and these savings are secure from inflation, and secure from theft and secure from being confiscated and robbed. So Bitcoin takes electricity and hardware as inputs and produces savings protected from inflation and fraud. Its efficiency as a saving mechanism is to measure the cost of building it and compare it to the monetary value stored in it.

比特币的建设维护成本即总挖矿奖励，目前接近挖矿补贴总和（每日奖励×当日价格）。而比特币存储的货币价值等于其市值（流通量×价格）。这种思考框架很有价值：我们付出的是挖矿奖励按发放时价格的累计值，获得的是比特币市值。以2022年11月数据对比，当前储蓄价值约3000亿美元（书中2021年7月数据为8000亿至1万亿美元）。

The cost of building and securing Bitcoin is the total mining reward, which as we said has so far been close to the mining subsidy, which is the sum of daily reward times daily price. Whereas the monetary value that is stored in Bitcoin is equal to the market capitalization of Bitcoin, which is equal to the Bitcoin in circulation multiplied by the Bitcoin price. So this I think is a good useful way of thinking about the benefits of Bitcoin. It's cost us the sum of the daily mining reward times the price at which that reward has been handed out, and it's given us the market cap of Bitcoin. So let's compare these in November 2022, now measuring them now, updated numbers compared to the book, the book has the numbers up until July 2021, the price then was higher, So then back then in the book, you'll see the number was around, I think, 1,000,000,000,000 of savings or $800,000,000,000 of savings.

目前储蓄价值约3000亿美元，而安全成本约350亿美元（书中数据为300亿）。即300-350亿美元的投入创造了约4000亿美元的储蓄价值。我认为这是衡量比特币成本效益最客观的方式：全球持有者赋予比特币4000亿美元估值，这个数字反映了他们愿意为持有比特币而牺牲的机会成本。当前持有者显然对比特币的估值高于市价，否则他们早已抛售。

Now it's around $300,000,000,000 of savings, but the security cost is around $35,000,000,000 when the book was written is around $30,000,000,000 So around $30,000,000,000 to $35,000,000,000 of resources have produced around $400,000,000,000 of savings or 3 to $400,000,000,000 of savings. This is I really think the kind of objective way of measuring the cost benefits of Bitcoin. We have people who are holding $400,000,000,000 worth of Bitcoin worldwide, they value them at $400,000,000,000 or 3 to $400,000,000,000 depending on the price. They value them at that value because that's how much they are willing to sacrifice an opportunity cost in order to hold on to Bitcoin. So the people who are holding on to Bitcoin right now clearly value it at a value that is higher than the current market price of the Bitcoin, because if they valued it at less than that then they would be selling it.

生产成本约在350亿美元区间，总体带来10倍回报——350亿美元的安全投入创造了约3500亿美元的储蓄价值。书中2021年数据显示：网络保障的8000亿美元价值对应300亿美元安全成本（每日奖励市值的总和）。若按年度边际计算效率，当前保障4000亿美元价值所需的年化挖矿奖励约为50亿美元。

And then the cost of producing this is roughly been in the range of about $35,000,000,000. So overall I think we could say that it's given us a 10x return, so we've got around $350,000,000,000 of savings produced from about $35,000,000,000 of investment in the production of Bitcoin and the security of Bitcoin. So the quote from the book was with data from 2021 is that the total value secured by the network in July 2021 is in the range of $800,000,000,000 while the total cost of securing the network is the $30,000,000,000 that is the sum of the total mining rewards calculating by summing the market value of daily rewards. At the margin, Bitcoin's efficiency can be measured as the annual cost of maintaining Bitcoin compared to the value secured. If you wanted to measure it annually at the margin, then right now in order to secure the current $400,000,000,000 we are paying the annual mining reward over the last one year, you could think of it as a yearly margin.

今年为保障比特币网络4000亿美元的储蓄价值，我们大约需要支付35亿美元（年化约50亿）。随着网络价值随时间增长而奖励占比下降（因存量-流量比递减），效率会逐年提升。当前区块奖励（约6.25比特币的区块补贴+少量交易费）的效率基本与存量-流量比相当，这点我们在《比特币标准》中有深入探讨。

So this year in order to secure the 400,000,000,000 of savings that we have in Bitcoin right now, around $3.50, we've got around we're spending around I'd say about $5,000,000,000 of savings, and so every year that efficiency increases because the value of the network tends to increase over time, and the value of the reward declines as a percentage of the network because the stock to flow ratio declines, so the new production declines as a percentage of the total reward. So at the margin measured yearly, can think of the efficiency of Bitcoin for savings as the amount of money spent securing Bitcoin in a year compared to the value that it secures. So currently the block reward, the total amount of reward that miners get from mining Bitcoin is equal to the block subsidy plus the transaction fees, and the block subsidy is currently at around six and a quarter Bitcoin. The transaction fees have so far been a small fraction of that, so they're a small fraction of the total subsidy, so the block reward has been equal to roughly the block subsidy, the new amount of blocks that is being produced. So what this means is that effectively the efficiency of Bitcoin is quite similar to the stock to flow ratio, which we discuss in-depth in the Bitcoin standard.

换句话说，我们可以将存量流量比视为货币效率的衡量标准。存量流量比越高，意味着现有货币存量相对于新产出的货币量越大。以比特币为例，由于新产出的比特币用于支付矿工报酬，我们可以将其视为安全成本、比特币的运营成本，以及确保比特币安全运行的成本。因此，随着货币效率提升，存储在比特币中的价值也会增长，因为比特币作为价值存储机制变得更高效。存量流量比上升与流入比特币的资金价值增长是相互关联的。

In other words, we can think of the stock to flow as a measure of monetary efficiency. The higher the stock to flow, the more the stockpile of money that exists compared to the new money that is being produced. And in the case of Bitcoin, because the new money that is being produced is what is financing the miners, we can think of that as the security cost, as the cost of operating Bitcoin, as the cost of making sure that Bitcoin runs and operates safely. So as the monetary efficiency rises, the value stored in Bitcoin rises, because Bitcoin becomes more efficient as a mechanism for storing value. As the stock to flow rises, as the value of the money going into Bitcoin increases, those things are related.

换言之，当比特币存储的价值相对于每日新产出并分配给矿工的价值增加时，比特币作为货币形式变得更高效。由于存量流量比下降，我们用于保障比特币安全的成本占总价值的比例会更低。也就是说，比特币新增产量占网络保障价值的比例正在下降。这就是为什么我们可以将存量流量比视为货币工具的效率指标。从边际角度可以这样理解，但整体来看，我们能够衡量新比特币的生产经济成本，并将其与当前流通中的比特币市值进行比较。

In other words, when the value held in Bitcoin increases compared to the new value that is being produced and handed out to miners every day, Bitcoin becomes more efficient as a form of money. It costs us less as a percentage of the total value to secure Bitcoin because the stock to flow is declining. In other words, the new production of Bitcoin is declining as a percentage of the value that is secured on the network. That's why we can think of the stock to flow as being effectively like the efficiency of a monetary instrument. So thinking that's how we think about it in terms of the the margin, but thinking in the aggregate, we can measure the economic cost of producing new Bitcoins and compare it to the market value of Bitcoin in circulation today.

到目前为止，这种情况确实相似，因为交易成本同样微乎其微。比特币在产出当日的总价值约为270亿美元，而2021年7月撰写本文时，这些比特币的价值约为6200亿美元。这意味着实现了2200%的回报率。平均而言，比特币自诞生以来已增值约23倍。这是衡量其效率的另一种方式：我们可以用比特币产出当日的价格来衡量其生产成本，再与当前价格进行对比。

And that is so far, of course, it's similar because the transaction costs have been similar, have been negligible. So the total cost of the value of the new coins that are being produced on the day that they were produced is about $27,000,000,000 So the value of producing the Bitcoin was $27,000,000,000 and in July 2021, they were worth around $620,000,000,000 when this was written. So this is a 2200% return. So the average Bitcoin has appreciated around 23 fold since its creation. This is another good way of thinking of the efficiency of it, that the cost of producing a Bitcoin, we can measure it from the price of a Bitcoin at the day which it was produced, and then we can compare it to the price of those Bitcoins today.

总体来看，我们确实观察到显著的增值。当然，过去一年产出的比特币存在贬值现象，当前价格低于产出时价格。但整体而言，如今比特币的总价值仍远高于其产出时的价值。此外，我们还可以从全球资金转移技术的效率角度来思考比特币。

And we see the significant appreciation in all of these in overall. Of course, the last Bitcoins that were produced over the last year, they've depreciated. They're cheaper now than they were produced. But overall, the total value of the Bitcoins today is much higher than the value of the Bitcoins when they were produced. But then we can also think about the efficiency of Bitcoin as a global money transfer technology.

比特币是全球资金转移机制，目前交易费约占交易价值的0.02%。本章图表展示了这一比例的历史演变趋势。当前我们仅支付约0.02%的交易费，但随着比特币补贴减少，该比例持续上升。由于区块空间固定，若人们重视比特币，就会重视持有和交易，这一趋势很可能延续。

Bitcoin is a mechanism of transferring money across the world, and currently transaction fees are roughly equal to 0.02% of transaction value. And you can see the graph that shows the historical evolution of this over time in the chapter. Currently, we're only paying about 0.02% of transaction value. This percentage has been rising as the Bitcoin subsidy declines. Trend is likely to continue because if people value Bitcoin, they will value owning it and transacting with it, but the block space is fixed.

观察书中图21可见，代表交易费占比的黑线自始呈现上升趋势。随着比特币价值和网络资金价值的增长，交易费占比也同步提升，形成持续缓慢上升的曲线——目前仍维持在交易价值的0.02%左右。随着比特币补贴减少，该比例持续上升，这种趋势或将延续。这是对比特币常见的质疑之一：部分经济学家认为，当区块补贴减少时，矿工将缺乏足够动力来保障比特币安全。

So if you look at this graph, figure 21 in the book, you see that if you look at this black line, which is the fees share of the reward, we see that it has been in an uptrend since the beginning. As the value of Bitcoin increases, and as the value of the money that is held on the network increases, the percentage of the network that is in fees also increases, and so we see this upward sloping trend line, where the fees continue to become a slightly more expensive part of the value of the transaction, but they're still at around 0.02% of transaction value. And this percentage has been rising as the Bitcoin subsidy declines, and I think this trend is likely to continue. And this is one of the common objections we hear about Bitcoin. So some economists will say, well, the block subsidy is declining, and when the block subsidy declines, then there's not going to be a way to secure Bitcoin, because miners are not going to get paid enough incentive to secure Bitcoin.

我认为这种对比特币安全性的理解完全本末倒置，也是对经济学的误解。这种观点假设比特币需要固定安全预算才能运作，却未能理解这是主观动态的过程——关键在于矿工能否在不受攻击的情况下成功挖矿，以及用户是否愿意支付必要费用来完成交易。这才是解释比特币能否作为交易方式的核心：关键在于市场需求。

And I think this is a completely backwards and wrong way of thinking about Bitcoin security. And it's a wrong way of thinking about economics because assumes there needs to be a fixed security budget for Bitcoin to work, and it doesn't quite understand that it's a subjective thing, and it's just it's not a matter of having a fixed security budget, it's a matter of miners being able to mine successfully without being attacked. So it's a dynamic thing, and it's about people being willing to pay whatever it takes in order to get their transactions to clear. And this is really the key thing that explains it. In order to see whether Bitcoin can work as a way of making transactions, it needs to have people demand it.

这就是其荒谬之处——如果人们重视比特币交易，企业家就会找到提供交易的方式。这项技术的运作原理就是：它让这些无法被审查的交易形成市场，让需要交易的人支付手续费，让矿工通过打包交易获利。由于挖矿是开放市场且任何人都能参与，这最终决定了比特币的安全性。正是这点让人们能安全使用比特币，即便遭遇审查企图——因为作为矿工、控制矿工的人或掌控矿工资源的政府，你只能阻止特定矿工打包交易，却无法阻止其他矿工。只要有人愿意支付费用，交易总会找到出路。那么关键问题是：会有足够的需求来确保交易完成吗？

And this is the ridiculous aspect of it, that if people value Bitcoin transactions, then entrepreneurs will find a way of providing them the transactions. I mean, it's just the way that the technology works is that it allows for a market in these unsensurable transactions to emerge, and it allows the people who want those transactions to pay transaction fees, and it allows for the miners to make money from making from selling these transactions. And so because mining is an open market and because anybody can join it, then that ultimately is what determines the security of Bitcoin. That's what ultimately allows people to use Bitcoin securely, even if there is an attempt to try and censor it, because you can, know, you're a miner or if you control some miners or if you're a government that controls miners, you can stop them from mining any particular transactions, but you can't stop other miners from mining those transactions, and so as long as others can pay for it, then they will find a way. So will there be enough demand to make the transactions go through?

这归根结底是个问题：比特币会有足够的需求吗？如果人们想用比特币，他们就会支付必要成本。技术赋予了我们这种可能——让人们支付足够费用使矿工确认交易。根本不存在人们需要比特币却不需要区块空间的情形，我认为这才是核心要点。

That's a question that it boils down to, will there be enough demand for Bitcoin? If people want to use Bitcoin, they will pay whatever it takes in order to make it work. That's what the technology allows us, and allows them to pay the miners enough to make the transaction goes through. There's no conceivable scenario in which people demand Bitcoin, but do not demand Bitcoin block space. That's really, I think, the key point.

若对区块空间存在需求，人们自会支付交易费来促成交易；若连区块费都无人问津，那对比特币本身也不会有需求。比特币让区块空间市场自然形成，人们只需付费就能完成交易。你的交易不需要固定安全预算来确认——这是个市场，区块空间总量固定，想挤进去就得支付足够费用。

If demand exists for block space, then transaction fees will be paid to facilitate this. If demand doesn't exist for block fees, then demand doesn't exist for Bitcoin. Bitcoin allows for that market in block space to emerge, and people can just pay to clear their transactions. There's no fixed security budget that you need in order for your transaction to clear. It's a market, there's a fixed amount of block space, and if you want to get into it, you're going to have to pay enough to get your transaction into that block.

目前每个区块包含约1MB数据，矿工打包可获得约10万美元报酬。按当前每个比特币161.7万美元计算，6.25个比特币的区块奖励价值约10万美元。这意味着当前人们愿意为1MB区块链数据支付10万美元。每天新增900个比特币会稀释现有供应量，这些新增比特币本质上是在为矿工融资——但市场正在为这种挖矿行为买单。现阶段矿工收入主要来自稀释现有币值的区块补贴。

So currently each block contains around one megabyte of data, and a miner is paid around $100,000 to produce it, so the current value of each Bitcoin block is around $100,000 It's 6 Bitcoin, 6 and a quarter Bitcoin, and each Bitcoin currently is around $1,617,000 dollars, so that's around $100,000 of mining reward that goes to each block miner. So one megabyte of data is currently worth $100,000 This is how much people value putting data on the next Bitcoin blockchain. So 900 Bitcoin are produced each day and devalue the existing supply in order to finance the mining. But people are paying for that mining. Currently, miners get paid through the subsidy devaluing the existing coins.

当补贴消失后，矿工将完全依赖交易费。只要有人愿意支付足够费用，交易就总能被确认。因此关于『区块空间是否足够』的讨论——抱歉我是指『挖矿奖励是否足以维持比特币运行』——我认为完全搞错了重点。如果比特币存在需求，使用者自然会付费。这就像问『要是人们不想用比特币怎么办？』——答案很简单：没人用，比特币自然消亡。

But as that disappeared, as that disappears, they'll get paid from the transaction fees. So whatever it is going to take for them to make the transaction clear, it's an option available for people to pay for it. And so for me, this discussion about whether there will be enough block space, I believe sorry, whether there will be enough mining reward in order to keep Bitcoin operating, I think is hugely misplaced because if demand for Bitcoin exists and if people are interested in operating Bitcoin, then they're going to pay for it. And it's just it's it's it's on some level it's like saying, well, what if people don't want to use Bitcoin? Yeah, if people don't want to use Bitcoin then yeah, Bitcoin falls apart and stops working.

这放之万物皆准。如果人们不用电脑，电脑市场就会崩溃。但只要需求存在，人们总会找到办法让懂电脑的人生产电脑。而比特币比普通电脑更抗打击——政府或许能禁止电脑产销，但要禁止比特币挖矿和交易难得多。虽然挖矿需要电脑，但有了电脑后，全面禁止比特币比禁止计算本身困难得多。当然这是个复杂问题，但我想强调的是：比特币没有阻止人们挖矿的机制。

That's always the case, and it's true for Bitcoin, it's true for everything else. If people stop using computers, then yeah, the market for computers will be destroyed. But if people want to use computers, then they'll find a way to pay people who know how to make computers to produce the computers. And in the case of Bitcoin, it's even more robust than just computers, because governments might be able to ban the production of computers, and the distribution and sale of computers, and they'll get they'll be much more successful, think, in banning computer production and sales than it would be in banning Bitcoin mining and sales, because Bitcoin is much easier to produce and sell, know, you just need, well you do need computers to produce Bitcoin, but once you have computers it's much harder to ban Bitcoin I think than just banning computing overall. Probably, well I don't know, it's probably a complicated question, but ultimately I guess the distinction is that with Bitcoin, the point I'm trying to make is that with Bitcoin, there's no mechanism for stopping people from mining Bitcoin.

人们总能找到挖矿方式。所以我的结论是：比特币运作不需要固定安全预算，挖矿成本只需高到能防止双花攻击和长链重组即可。如果我们发现因双花交易泛滥或频繁长链重组导致挖矿受阻，交易费自然会上涨——但只要需求存在，市场自会调节。我认为对比特币作为硬通货的需求才是根本驱动力。若这类攻击威胁到用户，反而会激励他们支付更高费用来确认交易，促使手续费上涨。

They'll always find a way to mine. So in conclusion, I'd say there's no fixed security fee that needs to be paid to make Bitcoin operate. The mining needs to be expensive enough to allow spending to happen securely without double spends and long reorg attacks. That's what needs to happen, and it's just if we find that mining isn't happening, because there are a lot of double spending transactions, or as mining is happening, are lot of double spending transactions, a lot of long reorg attacks, then it's going to cost you more to get your transaction through, so Bitcoin transaction fees will rise, but if people want those transaction fees, then they will people want their transactions through, then they will find a way, and I think the demand for Bitcoin is hard money is what's going to drive the demand for this. So should such attacks become a problem for Bitcoin users, this will incentivize them to pay transaction fees to get their transactions confirmed, and fees will rise.

关于手续费水平会达到多少，我认为我们无法先验地判断，这应该由市场决定。现在的问题是，是否需要更高的手续费？我们有证据表明人们愿意支付。2017年12月，人们支付了约50美元的交易手续费。通常交易所手续费远超比特币交易费，因此当人们购买比特币时，他们实际支付给交易所的手续费往往高得多。

What the level of fees will be, I don't believe we can tell a priori, I think it's just something that will be determined on a market. Now, should higher fees be needed? We have evidence to suggest that people will pay them. In December 2017, people paid around $50 in transaction fees. Exchange fees massively exceed Bitcoin transaction fees usually, so when people are buying Bitcoin, they're usually paying a much higher transaction fee for the exchange from which they buy Bitcoin.

事实上，许多人购买比特币的成本更高。有人通过ATM机购买需支付5%溢价，有人通过LocalBitcoins等渠道支付7%、8%甚至10%的溢价。因此交易所手续费通常远高于比特币交易费。如果比特币需求持续增长，其交易将类似于目前成本远高于比特币交易费的国际结算交易。

And in fact, many people buy Bitcoin at much higher cost. Many people buy it from ATMs with premiums for like 5%. Many people buy it from things like local Bitcoin with premiums of 7% or 8% or 10%. So exchange fees massively exceed Bitcoin transaction fees usually. So if demand for Bitcoin continues to grow, transactions will be like international settlement transactions, which currently cost a lot more than Bitcoin transaction fees.

以黄金交易为例，洲际运输黄金的成本高达面值的1%。如果比特币规模足够大，其交易费也可能达到这个水平。但关键在于，即便比特币规模与黄金相当（这并非不可想象，可能只需再增长20或30倍），比特币交易费仍有50倍的上涨空间才会达到黄金交易成本水平。更何况比特币还能通过批量交易实现更大规模扩展，价格仍有显著上升空间。

Looking at gold transactions, It costs up to 1% of face value to move gold intercontinental. Transaction fees can rise to that level if Bitcoin becomes very big. So really, if demand for Bitcoin exists, the choking point is not going to be transaction fees, because if Bitcoin becomes as big as gold, which is not that unthinkable, it's only another 20x from here or 30x or something like that, if Bitcoin becomes as big as gold, then its transaction fees to move Bitcoin around still can go 50 fold before they come into gold territory, you know, when thinking about the one gold bar. And yet even then Bitcoin can scale even more because you're not limited by the bar. You can make much larger batched transactions, and then for the price could go up significantly.

因此我不认为交易费会限制比特币发展。核心问题在于：比特币是否值得？从功能角度看，比特币正在取代现有的储蓄与国际汇款技术。最好将其视为对中央银行功能的技术升级。法币是人工技术，极易受到人为错误和操纵的影响。

So I don't see transaction fees as being a limit on the growth of Bitcoin. So in conclusion, the question really is, is Bitcoin worth it? Functionally speaking, Bitcoin replaces existing technologies for saving and international money transfer. This is really how to think about it, and it's useful to think of the improvements Bitcoin brings to the functions of central banking as technological upgrades. Fiat is a manual technology, highly vulnerable to human error and exploitation.

比特币是数字化、机械化、可预测的高可靠性技术。与政府货币平均14%的通胀率相比，比特币提供固定供应量与可预测的通缩率；与受政客和特殊利益集团操控的货币政策不同，比特币提供完美的可预测性与透明度；与资助无节制政府开支不同，比特币资助全球廉价可靠能源开发；与跨洋运输金属锭再熔铸相比，比特币通过工作量证明大幅减少人力投入与安全风险。

Bitcoin is a digital and mechanical, predictable technology with very high reliability. Instead of struggling with an average 14% supply inflation rate of government monies, Bitcoin offers you a fixed supply with a predictable declining supply inflation rate. Instead of a monetary policy run by politicians and special interests, Bitcoin offers perfect predictability and transparency. Instead of financing unaccountable, limitless government spending, Bitcoin finances the development of cheap, reliable energy resources all over the planet. Instead of shipping heavy lumps of rock across oceans and melting and recasting them, Bitcoin uses proof of work to ensure far less human labor is involved and far less security risk is incurred.

比特币不会引发国内外对货币体系控制的暴力斗争，而是通过电力自愿达成账本验证。比特币虽不能终结战争，但能大幅削弱国家通过通胀资助战争的能力，更重要的是，它将货币体系移出战争掠夺体系。不妨类比其他机器——比特币只是用更可靠的方式完成人类工作：就像洗衣机消耗电能却提供更优洗衣体验，人们自愿付费；汽车消耗更多能源但提供更快更安全的出行，人们选择放弃马车；钢筋混凝土房屋需要高耗能炼钢，但人们愿意为坚固住所买单；计算机比算盘耗能多，却在全球持续热销。

Instead of fomenting violent and vicious power struggles domestically and internationally over control of the monetary system, Bitcoin resolves the validity of its ledger voluntarily with electric power and no violence. Bitcoin cannot end war, but it can significantly dent the state's ability to use inflation to finance war, and perhaps more importantly, it massively reduces the spoils of war by taking the monetary system out of them. And I think it's useful here to think about other kinds of machines, because this is what we're dealing with here. It's just another way of doing machine work. It's another way of using machines to do the work that humans can do less reliably.

当地球上所有人面临选择时——手洗还是机洗、徒步还是驾驶、算盘还是计算机——几乎都会选择更高能耗的选项。

The washing machine saves humans time on hand washing and delivers a superior washing experience by consuming electric energy, which people willingly pay for, because they value the output more than the cost. The car similarly consumes a lot of energy, but people willingly pay that price to travel faster and safer, and to not deal with horse manure. Steel reinforced houses require power hungry coal fired furnaces to produce their steel, but people willingly pay the cost to live in sturdy houses that protect them from the environment. A computer requires far more energy to operate than an abacus, yet computers continue to be purchased in increasing quantities worldwide. Virtually everyone on earth who has a choice between manual washing and washing machines, between walking long distances and driving, between an abacus and a computer, chooses the more energy intensive option.

这并非高深莫测的火箭科学，这只是技术进步的基本逻辑。我们不断发明消耗更多能源的机器，以节省身体能量消耗，更重要的是节省时间——比特币正是如此。我之前发布的这条推特长文，我认为非常精妙地阐释了这个道理。

This is not rocket science. This is just the basics of technological progress. We continue to find machines that consume more energy to save us on spending our body's energy, and more importantly, on our time. And that's what Bitcoin does. And for that there's this Twitter thread that I posted before, which I really think is a very good way of explaining this.

这本质上是对反比特币论调的戏谑。当人们指责比特币耗电时——没错，洗衣机也耗电，飞机耗电惊人，钢铁厂更是电力黑洞。但人们依然选择洗衣机而非手洗，选择飞机而非独木舟横渡大西洋，尽管独木舟几乎不耗能。为什么？

And it's it's a parody essentially of the arguments against Bitcoin when people tell you Bitcoin consumes so much electricity. Well, yeah, washing machine consumes so much electricity. Airplane consumes a lot of electricity. A steel factory produces consumes a lot of electricity, and yet people continue to produce the washing, continue to prefer the washing machine over hand washing, they continue to prefer crossing the Atlantic with an airplane over crossing the Atlantic with a kayak, even though a kayak consumes a lot less energy, it doesn't burn any fuel. Why do people prefer the airplane over the kayak?

因为更安全快速。房屋同理：用钢材建造能抵御风雨五十年的房子，远比环保低耗的露天如厕安全。货币体系也是如此。就像这张图展示的，比特币永远不会成功，因为它比手工摇动的央行金库技术耗能多得多——这就是法币拥护者指责比特币耗能时的荒谬逻辑。他们宁愿让央行官员开会决定货币分配，决定谁可以免费获得货币而谁必须劳动换取，决定全球每个人的利率。

It's safer and it's faster. Similarly with the houses, it's much safer to build a house from steel and sort of keep the house alive for fifty years where you can survive in it protected from the elements, than using a very environmentally friendly, low energy, low footprint to pee. And that's the case with money, and that's why you know in this picture similarly Bitcoin will never take off because it consumes far more energy than the hand cranked central bank treasury technology that gives us government money. That's what fiat enthusiasts sound like to me when they say that Bitcoin is consuming so much energy. They'd rather have a central bank and treasury guy get together and meet and decide how much money we all get, and they meet to decide who gets to make money for free and who has to work for money, And they meet and they decide what the interest rate is for everybody in the world.

这就是替代方案：如同用独木舟横渡大西洋、住帐篷、手洗衣物般的原始技术。确实比比特币耗能少，因为它是落后且失败的技术。我们已有更好的替代方案。

That's the alternative. And that is a primitive technology like crossing the Atlantic on a kayak, like living in a tepee, like washing with your hands. Yes, it consumes less energy than Bitcoin, because it's primitive and really failed technology. It's failed. We have better alternatives to it.

归根结底，生产能源并用以驱动更快、更好、更安全、更精准可靠的机器，正是人类技术文明进步的本质。电气化已极大改良无数产品，比特币只是人类正在快速接纳的又一电气化产物。无论其能耗多高，需求增长才是根本原因。反对比特币能耗如同卢德主义，与要求他人因感性荒谬理由放弃现代科技产品无异。

That's really what it comes down to. Generating energy and using it to operate faster, better, safer, more precise and more reliable machinery is the essence of human technological progress in human civilization itself. Electrification has massively improved countless human products, and Bitcoin is just another electric product humans are adopting rapidly. No matter how large its energy consumption, that quantity is only growing because of real world demand for its services. Objecting to Bitcoin's energy consumption is Luddism, no different from demanding others forsake any useful modern technological product for sentimental, nonsensical reasons.

对比特币用户而言幸运的是，这些反对者无力阻止比特币运行。这就是最终结论。今天的讲座到此结束，谢谢。

Fortunately for Bitcoin users the lullets are powerless to stop Bitcoin from operating. That ultimately is what it comes down to. And that's it for today's lecture. Thank you.