303. 网络国家与巴拉吉·斯里尼瓦桑

我刚刚才听说这一点，这个观点很有意思。

I I hadn't heard that until just now, so that's interesting about that point.

另外我要给你看一个最好的例证，我觉得这能有趣地说明中国的产权状况——虽然我不确定自己完全理解，但至少我会把它放到屏幕上——就是那些‘钉子户’。

One other thing I'll show you, by the way, the single best illustration, which I think is interesting of Chinese property rights, which I don't know if I fully understand, but at least I'll put it on screen, are the nail houses.

是的。

Yes.

这是个很好的例子。

That's a great example.

对。

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

所以这类现象很常见，或者至少有很多AI时代前的照片显示中国有这样的房子——比如矗立在高速公路正中央的房屋。

So these things are common in or at least there's many photos of them pre AI that show houses like this in the middle of like a giant highway or something in China.

而它们的存在本身就暗示了

And what they suggest by their go

继续。

ahead.

有时候是停车场。

Or a parking lot sometimes.

或者是停车场，或者房地产开发区之类的。

Or or a parking lot or a real estate development, something like that.

它们的存在本身就表明，人们普遍认为共产党可以随意强拆、无人能抵抗的观念并不完全正确。

What they what they suggest by their mere existence is that the entire concept people have of, the communist party can just bulldoze people, nobody can resist.

某种程度上，产权足够强大，以至于他们无法或不愿对所有土地行使征用权。

Well, somehow, property rights were strong enough that they couldn't eminent domain or didn't want eminent domain everything.

对吧？

Right?

所以这里有些耐人寻味的现象。

So there's something interesting going on there.

我...我并不是说完全理解，因为显然共产党在中国拥有强大的力量。

And I I I won't say that I fully understand, know, because obviously the Communist Party is strong within China.

所以我不会说我完全理解，但我的初步看法是，党其实不愿意对农民动用全部国家权力，因为那样影响不好。

So I won't say I fully understand it, but my draft is that the party is actually loathe to use full state power against a peasant because that looks bad.

对吧？

Right?

而如果他们针对的是马云这类人物，那可能就另当别论了。

And so whereas if they're using it against, let's say, Jack Ma or somebody like that, then it might be like, okay.

你知道，他们可以稍微换个说法，但对动用那种级别的权力还是很犹豫。

You know, they can spin it a little bit differently, but they're hesitant to use that level of power.

他们明白在民意支持方面存在实际约束，不想为小事消耗民意资本。

They understand there's practical constraints in terms of their popularity, and they don't wanna spend down popularity for small things.

这大概就是我的理解，不过只是个初步解释。

So that's kinda how I think about it, but that's a draft explanation.

我不认为我完全理解党在类似事情上何时会动用权力、何时不会。

I don't I don't think I fully understand when the party uses its power versus not on something like this.

我觉得那可能涉及国家安全之类的问题。

I think it was a matter of national security or something.

他们会直接推平它，但我不知道确切答案。

They would just bulldoze it, but but I don't know the answer to that.

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

我认为可以提出一个相当有力的论点，即中国的财产权受到很好的保护。

I think there's a pretty compelling case that could be made that property rights in China are very well protected.

我的意思是，过去五十年中国在财产权神圣性方面确实发生了巨大变革，所以我认为有充分理由说明它实际上不是一个共产主义国家。

I mean certainly there's been a massive revolution in the sanctity of property rights in China over the last fifty years and so I think there's, you know, there's a strong case to be made that it's not really a communist country.

话虽如此，我仍然认为政府在中国的经济发展中扮演着巨大角色这一点相当引人注目，这确实涉及社会主义、大量中央计划，以及对经济资源的高度集中控制。

Having said that, I still think it is pretty, it's pretty remarkable that there is still an enormous role for the government in economic development in China, and that does involve socialism, a lot of central planning, it does involve a lot of centralized control over economic resources.

但我想说，米塞斯对社会主义的根本批判归根结底在于财产权问题。

But I would say, you know, the Mises critique of socialism fundamentally comes down to property rights.

这不是激励问题。

It's not an incentive issue.

大多数人思考社会问题时，首先想到的是激励机制问题。

Most people when they think about the problem of social they think about the issue of incentives.

如果不允许人们致富，他们就没有动力去工作。

If you don't let people get rich, they don't have an incentive to go to work.

这种说法或许对，或许不对，但这并非经济学的核心论点。

And that's maybe true, maybe not, but that's not the economic argument.

因为激励问题是可以解决的——你可以威胁他们不干活就饿死或被送进古拉格。

Because you can solve the incentive problem, you tell them you die or you starve or you get thrown into gulag.

这比致富的激励效果强多了。

That's much more incentivizing than getting rich.

对吧？

Right?

相比致富，你更强大的动力来自不被送进古拉格。

You'd rather not get thrown in the gulag than, it's a stronger incentive than becoming rich.

说到这个，顺便一提，这就是我关于战争为何能'刺激经济'的初步假设——并非破窗理论正确。

On that on that point, by the way, that is my draft hypothesis for why wars, quote, stimulate the economy is because it's not that the broken windows argument is correct.

这是一种非生即死的模式，在某种程度上强制动员所有人，让他们觉得，好吧。

It is that it's do or die mode that sort of conscripts everybody in a way that they're like, okay.

我最好工作，否则就会死。

I better work or I die.

从某种意义上说，这有点像每个人都喝了红牛之类的，但他们会想，如果我不以最低代价为经济倾尽全力，我就会死。

Like, in a sense of, you know so it's a little bit like everybody drinking Red Bull or something, but they're like, if I don't put in my all out effort into the economy for a minimum price, I die.

对吧？

Right?

这并不好，但比各种凯恩斯主义理论解释得更合理。

So that's not good, but that's a better explanation than the various kinds of Keynesian theories.

生死存亡似乎更具解释力。

Do or die seems to be more more explanatory.

我认为更好的解释是他们编造了一堆荒谬的统计数据，声称战争导致了经济复苏。

I think the the the I think the better explanation is just that they cook up a bunch of nonsensical statistics to say that the war led the recovery.

二战就是最好的例子。

World War two is the best example of this.

二战并未带来经济复苏。

World War two did not cause the recovery.

二战的结束才带来了经济复苏。

The end of World War two caused the recovery.

当时凯恩斯主义者们还在宣称这将是人类历史上最严重的大萧条。

At a time when the Keynesians were out there saying this is going to be the biggest depression in human history.

我是说保罗·萨缪尔森——他几乎撰写了二十世纪下半叶全球大部分教科书——他在1943年还是1942年说过这样的话：如果发生不可想象的灾难，战争在未来六个月内结束，我们将面临最严重的经济萧条。

If we stop the war, I mean Paul Samuelson who practically wrote most of the world's textbooks in the second half of the twentieth century, He said this I think in 1943 or 1942, he said something along the lines of if the unthinkable disaster happens and the war ends in the next six months, we will have the biggest depression

他真这么说过？

in Did he say that?

有意思。

Interesting.

是啊。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

因为在他看来，经济所谓的复苏是由于所有的军事生产。

Because in his mind, the reason the economy was quote unquote recovering was because of all the, military production.

天啊。

Oh my god.

所以你知道，如果停止打击德国人，就会让美国人挨饿，因为那样GDP数字就不会上升。

And so Well you know if stop killing Germans then you are going to make the American people starve because then GDP number doesn't go up.

正是这种心态让他们认为是二战的战争努力使他们摆脱了萧条，而实际上二战只是延长了萧条，是二战的结束以及另一个关键点——二战的结束也终结了新政。

So it's that mentality that makes them say that it was the World War two war effort that caught them out of the depression when in reality World War II just prolonged the depression and it was the end of World War II and the other thing about the end of World War II is that the end of World War II ended the New Deal.

这才是真正关键所在，因为战争结束后罗斯福去世，杜鲁门接任，国会由民主党掌控，杜鲁门是共和党人，他们无法达成任何共识，因此新政的大部分法令都终止了。

That was the real, was the real kicker because after the war ended FDR died, Truman took over, Congress has become Democrat, Truman was a Republican, they were Democrats, they couldn't agree on anything And so most of the statutes of the new deal ended.

所以，你知道

So, you know

我想给你看一个与此有些巧合的东西。

I want to show you something which is somewhat coinciding with that.

这基本上表明，几千年来，如果你以中心为基准——当然这是一门近似科学。

So this basically shows that for thousands of years, if you take the center and of course, an approximate science.

但如果你以日本文明、中国文明、印度文明、中东和欧洲等文明为例，取其各自经济体的质心，并在地球表面进行平均计算，数千年来全球经济的质心大致位于欧亚大陆中部。这并不是说具体在阿富汗之类的地方，而是说如果平均日本、中国、印度和欧洲等地的经济重心，结果会落在这个区域。

But if you take the civilization that is Japan, the civilization that is China, civilization that's India, in the Middle East, and and Europe, and so on and so forth, then you take the center of mass of their respective economies and you you average that on the surface of the earth, for thousands of years, the center of mass of the global economy is roughly in the middle of Eurasia, which is not to say that's literally in, like, you know, Afghanistan or whatever, but rather that, if you, average Japan and China and India and Europe and so on, you got something around here.

而工业革命带来的变化是，经济重心迅速转移到了欧洲，随后这些国家在相互毁灭中消耗了所有神奇武器。

And then what happened with the industrial revolution is the center of mass rocketed out to Europe, and then they all blew each other up with all the wonder weapons.

在日本遭受核打击、欧洲成为废墟、中国和俄罗斯等国家转向共产主义之后，基本上美国和西欧成了地球上仅存的资本主义地区。

And then after Japan had been nuked and Europe was in ruins and China was communist and Russia was communist and so on, then basically, The US and Western Europe are the only two capitalist places on the surface of the earth.

因此世界经济重心就转移到了这里。

So the world economy is here.

这是最西方化和最中心化的，因为全球只有大约50个实体，也就是50个国家。

This is the most westernized and most centralized because there are only, like, 50 entities globally, you know, 50 countries, basically.

所有事物都被整合成了这些数亿人口的庞大国家。

Everything was rolled up into these multi 100,000,000 person states.

这是历史上世界最为集中化和西方化的时期。

This was the most centralized and westernized the world had ever been in history.

这种状态持续了大约四十年左右。

And then that continued for about forty years or so.

而在冷战结束后，一切又迅速向东转移，因为中国不再是共产主义国家。

And then after then the cold war, everything rocketed back out east because China was no longer communist.

印度也大幅减少社会主义色彩，现在可以说是资本主义了。

India was much less socialist, arguably capitalist now.

俄罗斯也不再是共产主义国家。

Russia was no longer communist.

越南也不再是共产主义国家，等等等等。

Vietnam was no longer communist, etcetera, etcetera.

所以现在历史正在倒转。

So now history is running in reverse.

这种情况已持续了数千年。

So here, this was happening for thousands of years.

这种情况已持续了数百年。

This was happening for hundreds of years.

这种情况已持续了数十年。

This happening in tens of years.

所以我们讨论的那个时期大概就是在这里。

And so the period that we're talking about was like around here.

大家都把1950年的世界格局视为理所当然的状态。

And everybody thinks about this as like the way things are in 1950 as the way things were supposed to be.

但世界上其他地区被彻底摧毁其实是极其反常的情况。

But having the rest of the world completely blown to smithereens is actually an extremely unusual state of affairs.

所以那些说'是啊'的人...

And so everybody who's like, yeah.

还记得1945年吗？

Remember 1945?

记得吗？

Remember that?

那对除了美国人之外的几乎所有人来说，都是整个世界的最低谷。

That was like the nadir of the entire of the world for almost everybody else other than Americans.

但由于英语是全球语言等等原因，许多人的历史记忆几乎被抹去，他们意识不到那段时期对北美以外的人有多么糟糕。

But because English is the global language, and so on and so forth, many people have had their histories or memories almost erased, and they don't realize just how bad that period was for everybody who wasn't in North America.

我先暂停一下。

Let me pause there.

也许你有不同想法。

Maybe you have some thoughts.

不，完全同意。

No, agree entirely.

我认为这非常正确。

I think it's very true.

回到最初关于中国的观点，我认为这实际上是对米塞斯理论的挑战。米塞斯认为政府无法计划，因为缺乏产权意味着没有自由价格体系，因此无法进行理性计算。

And to go back to the original point on China, I'll just say the fact is, I think this is kind of a challenge to what Mises says, and that Mises says the government cannot plan because the absence of property rights means there's no free price system, therefore there's no rational way of calculating.

在他的社会主义模型中，政府既是生产资料也是最终产品的生产者，因此在生产过程的每个阶段政府都在与自己交易。作为垄断者向自己采购所有商品时，政府没有定价机制。

Because in his model of socialism, the government is the one that is producing the input goods and the final goods, and so the government is buying from itself at all stages of the production process, and therefore if it's a monopolist buying all the same goods from itself, it has no mechanism for pricing things.

而中国似乎通过某种方式绕过了这个问题——虽然不算是真正破解，但他们通过允许产权存在这一隐蔽方式解决了问题。产权创造了市场，从而产生了真实价格，使得经济计算和规划成为可能。

Well, China essentially seems to have hacked that in a way by well, I mean they haven't really hacked it but in surreptitious way, they hacked it by solving the problem, which is allowing people for to have property rights, which creates markets, therefore emerges therefore, real prices emerge, therefore, economic calculation and planning become possible.

但关键是他们如你所说是在全球市场中运作的。

But I think the key thing is they are operating within a global market as you said.

因为他们处于全球市场中，能够获取全球价格作为输入，从而能够进行经济核算。

Because they're operating within a global market, they're able to get global prices as inputs, and then they're able to perform calculation.

再回到你提到的中国高考制度，我认为这很可能也是解释这一现象的重要因素，因为尽管你可以对社会主义的问题提出各种看法。

And then to go back to your point on the national exam, the Gaokao that they have in China, I think that also is probably an important factor in explaining this because, you know, you may say what you want about the issues of socialism.

让聪明人掌权能让事情变得更好。

Putting smart people in charge makes things better.

他们改善现状的方式之一就是赋予人们产权，这意味着当他们开始做决策时，会做出明智的选择。

So one of the ways in which they make things better is that they give people property rights and then that means that when they start taking decisions they make good decisions.

因此，中国以我认为史无前例的方式从共产主义中复苏，这是一个非凡的事实。

So it's it's a remarkable fact that China has recovered from communism in an in an, I would say, unmatched way.

世界上很少有其他地方能如此戏剧性、如此迅速地实现这种转变并取得如此巨大的进步。

Very few other places in the world have managed to pull this off so dramatically and so quickly and to advance so much.

我的意思是，从这个角度看，你甚至可以说中国经济规模已经超过美国经济。

Mean, this point, you arguably could say the Chinese economy is larger than The US economy.

哦，完全同意。

Oh, absolutely.

你最近几年去过中国吗？

Have you have you been have you been to China in the last few years?

没有。

No.

我去过一次香港，但还没去过中国大陆，不过我计划很快去中国。

I've been to Hong Kong once, but, no, I'm planning on going to China soon.

我认为基本上，去中国看看很有必要。我的观点是，当我与美国朋友或任何美国友人交谈时，我会问他们是否去过以下这七座城市。

I think a visit to China basically, my view is when I talk to an American friend or any American friends, I ask them if they've been to the following, like, seven cities.

我说，你去过华沙、迪拜、利雅得、班加罗尔、胡志明市、新加坡，还有深圳吗？

I say, have you been to Warsaw, Dubai, Riyadh, Bangalore, Ho Chi Minh City, Singapore, and then Shenzhen?

实际上，我还想提一些中国的小城市或不太知名的地方，比如成都等等。

And then, actually, I also throw in some, you know, smaller Chinese cities or less well known, you know, Chengdu and so and so.

它其实是个挺大的城市，不过你知道的，这些地方都在内陆。

It's actually quite a large city, but, you know, things are in the interior.

有四个一线城市像广州、深圳、北京和上海，但还有其他一些人们不太了解的城市。

There's a four Geiger cities like Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai, but then there's others that are that are people don't know as well.

我认为除非他们去过那些城市，否则他们根本无法准确理解当今世界的样貌。

And I think that unless they've been to those cities, they're simply not calibrated on what the world is today.

你是。

You you are.

我觉得你是个聪明人。

I think you've you're you're a smart guy.

你见识过不少地方。

You've been you've been around a bit.

但从美国飞往中国，从一个充斥着精神失常的瘾君子的蓝色城市起飞——往往就在前往机场的路上都能看到这些人——然后降落在中国的街道上，看到一尘不染的街道、人们在商场里悠闲玩乐，这种对比会让你意识到中国已经赢了。

But it's impossible to travel from America to China and to take off in some blue city with, you know, mentally ill drug addicts running around literally, you know, often within within a drive to the airport and then land in China and walk around and see completely clean streets and, you know, people just having fun at the mall and, you know, totally spotless everything, you have to realize China has won.

对吧？

Right?

就像，实际上已经实现了。

Like, it's like, it's actually already there.

而且，这种认知终于开始反映在美国的姿态上——美国实际上正在退缩。

And, you know, this is finally getting priced into US posture where, The US is actually retreat.

就像，现在发生了一件怪事，我称之为‘叫嚣式撤退’。

Like, there's a weird thing happening, which I'd call a shouting retreat.

对吧？

Right?

这类似于拜登政府时期的情况，他们一边喊着通胀正在转移，通胀正在转移，一边却在尽可能多地抛售债券。

It's similar to how, you know, during the Biden administration where they're saying inflation is transferring, inflation is transferring while they're selling as many bonds as possible.

对吧？

Right?

然后他们突然加息，坑惨了所有人——那些2021年听了巴菲特‘永远押注美国’的人，在BLM骚乱和种种疯狂事件之后还相信他的人。

And then they jack up the rates on them and destroy everybody who like, everybody who believed Buffett when he said, always bet on America in 2021 after the BLM riots, after all that craziness, after, you know, and so on.

他们甚至被《纽约时报》当时那篇文章坑了——文章说银行在囤积债券，但并非出于自愿。

They just got ruined because they even the New York Times ran this ran this article at the time by saying, like, banks are loading up on bonds, but not because they want to.

对吧？

Right?

因为这些是超低利率债券，他们在2021年这场虚假的‘清仓大甩卖’期间疯狂买入。

Because these were really low interest rate bonds, and they were just buying huge amounts during this fake 2021, you know, going out of business sale or going out of business print.

总之，关键在于，就像拜登政府当时说的，通胀是暂时的，看好美国，买债券，结果如果你真买了，就会遭受数百亿美元的巨额损失。

Anyway, point being, just like the Biden administration was saying, inflation's transitory, better America, buy bonds, and if you did, you got destroyed with multi $100,000,000,000 losses.

同样地，所谓的'战争部'本质上是虚假的，因为它自称战争部却只做些虚张声势的表面功夫。

In the same way, the, quote, department of war is basically fake because it's calling itself department of war and doing all these chest thumping kind of things.

我理解他们为什么这么做，顺便说一句。

I understand why they're doing it, by the way.

实际上我对他们抱有更多同情，但与此同时，他们正在执行一场撤退。

I'm actually somewhat more a lot more sympathetic to them, but they're, at the same time, executing a retreat.

他们正在从乌克兰撤退。

They're retreating in Ukraine.

基本上，他们被胡塞武装打败了。

They basically, you know, got beaten by the Houthis.

确切地说，他们在军事上没能战胜胡塞武装。

Certainly, they weren't able to beat the Houthis militarily.

北约在军事上也没能战胜俄罗斯。

NATO was not able to beat Russia militarily.

如果你连胡塞武装或俄罗斯都打不过，那你肯定也打不过中国。

And if you can't beat the Houthis or Russia, you definitely can't beat China.

因此，作为国防部长的赫格塞斯足够聪明，意识到了这一点。

And so, Hegseth, who's a defense secretary, is smart enough to realize this.

在去年的一期播客中，他说过类似中国的高超音速武器能在前二十分钟内击沉所有美国航母这样的话。

On a podcast last year, he said something like Chinese hypersonics could sink all US aircraft carriers in the first twenty minutes.

而国防体系内的其他人，比如雷神公司的CEO也说过，你无法与中国脱钩。

And other people within the defense establishment, like the Raytheon CEO has said, you can't decouple from China.

前海军部长说过，中国的造船厂数量超过美国海军总和，或者说一家造船厂的产能就超过整个美国海军。

And the previous secretary of the navy said, China has more shipyards or the one shipyard cranks up more ships than the US Navy combined.

所以还是有些明白现实的人。

So there's guys who understand reality.

五角大楼有项研究显示，战斧导弹和JDAM炸弹的供应商其实是中国的。

There's this Pentagon study that shows that the Tomahawks and JDAMs, their supplier supplier is Chinese.

对吧？

Right?

所以中国可以直接切断美军的命脉。

So China can just shut off the US military.

对吧？

Right?

所以整个国防事务在某种程度上和'重建更好未来'计划一样虚假。

So the whole thing of all the defense stuff was in its own way basically about as fake as build back better.

这就像是共和党版本的虚假红色宣传，而'重建更好未来'则是民主党版本的虚假宣传。

It was like sort of the fake red red colored republican version whereas the build back better stuff is a fake democrat version.

就像波德斯塔那3600亿左右的项目，那个所谓的气候变化小金库，基本上都流向了各种绿色项目，你知道的，就是那些左派之类的。

Like the 360 something billion thing that Podesta had, that slush fund for climate whatever, was basically just all to various green, you know, like leftists or whatever.

但共和党版本本质上就是国防开支图表。

But then the republican version is defense graphed essentially.

对吧？

Right?

我并不是说这些钱都白花了，因为部分气候资金确实用在了中国的太阳能板上，而且效果相当不错。

Now I'm not saying it's all zero because some of the climate money actually did go towards solar panels in China, which actually are really working.

你知道吗？

You know?

而且部分国防资金确实投入到了机器人技术和无人机这些实际有效的领域。

And some of the defense money is going towards interesting things in robotics and drones, which are working.

所以并不是说一切都完全白费。

So it's not nothing's ever a total total zero.

对吧？

Right?

但总体而言，他们正在节节败退。

But in general, they're they're retreating.

美军基本上已经被打败了。

The US military has basically been beaten.

还有另一个情况。

They're also and here's another thing.

关于资金流向的问题，你可能有不同看法，但我的观点是资金正在撤离西方债券市场——因为美国、德国、意大利、英国、日本、法国，我相信还有加拿大的国债收益率都在飙升。

In terms of where is the money going, maybe you have a different view on this, but my view is it's going out of Western bonds because yields are spiking in The US, Germany, Italy, UK, Japan, France, and I believe also Canada.

这些资金主要流向了四个领域。

And it's going into four things.

黄金、数字黄金、中国债券（目前收益率最低的，对吧？）

Gold, digital gold, Chinese bonds, which have the lowest yields of right?

还有就是互联网公司。

And then actually, Internet companies.

对吧？

Right?

所以我总结为：两样传统的是黄金和中国债券，两样新兴的是互联网公司和数字黄金。

So the way I put it is the kind of the two old school things are gold and Chinese bonds, and the two new things are Internet companies and digital gold.

对吧？

Right?

这些就像是过去与未来对现在的两翼包抄。

And those kind of are the past and the future flanking the present.

其中，我认为黄金是最显而易见的。

Of those, I think gold is obvious.

数字黄金是显而易见的。

Digital gold is obvious.

中国的收益率相对明显。

Chinese yields are relatively obvious.

互联网公司这一点我想稍作展开，因为互联网公司的股权结构表上只有100个点。

The Internet company is one that I want to click on for a second, which is there's only a 100 points on the cap table of an Internet company.

虽然它们有时会发行新股，但每次发行都会经过一个高度仪式化的流程，确保所有人都清楚稀释比例和分母变化，因此这是一种受控的发行。

And while they do at times issue new shares, they don't do so without a very ritualized process where everybody's aware of the dilution and the denominator, and so it's a controlled issuance.

对吧？

Right?

而且他们只有在确实有市场需求的情况下才会这么做，诸如此类。

And they only do it if there's actually a market for it and so and so forth.

所以它不像比特币挖矿那样完全理性化，但它受到的限制要多得多。

So it's it's not quite as rationalized as Bitcoin mining, but it's some it's a lot more constrained.

所以，你知道，各种...我相当确定我实际上一直在试图找到这方面的参考资料。

And so, you know, various I'm pretty sure I actually I've been trying to find a reference on this.

也许你有一个。

Maybe you have one.

据我所知，梅赛德斯-奔驰在魏玛共和国之前和之后都存在。

My understanding is Mercedes Benz existed before Weimar and after Weimar.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

所以，资本结构上的这100点能够在那次恶性通货膨胀中幸存下来，因为股票就是股票，它经历了这一切。

So that so that's 100 points on the cap table managed to survive that hyperinflation because a stock was a stock was a stock going through it.

它没有大幅增加货币供应量等等。

It didn't radically increase money supply and so on and so forth.

可能它的很多供应商都出了问题。

Maybe a lot of its vendors were messed up.

可能它的很多轮胎价格昂贵，疯狂的事情正在发生，但不知何故它成功度过了那场风暴。

Maybe a lot of its tires were expensive and crazy things were happening, but somehow it managed to weather that storm.

我一直在寻找关于这方面的资料。

I've been looking for something that talks about that.

过去几年我一直在尝试用AI查询。

I've been trying to query AI over the past few years.

也许我会再试一次。

Maybe I'll try again.

也许你对此有些想法。

Maybe you have some thoughts on that.

我先暂停一下。

Let me pause there.

现在插播一条赞助商信息。

Now for a quick word from our sponsors.

《比特币标准》播客由thesafehouse.com赞助播出，这是我的独立出版社兼书店，专门提供采用优质布面精装工艺、可世代传承的最佳比特币书籍。

The Bitcoin Standard podcast is brought to you by thesafehouse.com, my independent publisher and bookshop, selling the best Bitcoin books in high quality cloth hardcovers built to last for generations.

如今大多数书籍都很'法币化'——装帧脆弱易损，而我绝不允许自己的书如此，因此特别创立了安全屋出版社，为您提供可自豪传承的经典布面精装书，历久弥新。

Most books these days are pretty fiat, they are flimsy and fall apart quickly, and I did not want that for my books, so I set up the safe house especially to provide you with beautiful, long lasting classic cloth hardcovers you can proudly pass down for generations.

您可以在thesafehouse.com获取我的三本书：《比特币标准》、《法币标准》和《经济学原理》，以及林·奥尔登的《破碎的金钱》、帕克·刘易斯的《逐渐地，然后突然地》，还有我为其中贡献了几个章节的马修·利希亚克的《法币食物》。

You can get copies of my three books, The Bitcoin Standard, The Fiat Standard, and Principles of Economics, and you can also get copies of Lin Alden's Broken Money, Parker Lewis's Gradually, Then Suddenly, and Matthew Lishiak's Fiat Food, to which I contributed a few chapters.

我们现在提供批量折扣，您可以为自己和想了解比特币的朋友家人购买书籍。

We now offer bulk discounts so you can buy books for yourself and for the friends and family you'd like to learn about Bitcoin.

任意两本书50美元，五本及以上每本20美元，超过50本则每本仅需15美元。

Buy any two books for $50 any five books or more for $20 per book and for more than 50 books it's only $15 per book.

访问thesafefouse.com，即可获得这些高品质布面精装书，全球配送，使用比特币支付还可享受9折优惠。

Go to thesafefouse.com where you can get all of these books in high quality cloth hardcovers delivered worldwide and get 10% off for paying with Bitcoin.

本播客也由TheBitcoinWay为您呈现，他们是专业的比特币IT团队，为您的比特币之旅每一步提供个性化、安全且全面的解决方案。

This podcast is also brought to you by TheBitcoinWay, your professional Bitcoin IT team offering you personalized, secure, and comprehensive solutions for every step along your Bitcoin journey.

The Bitcoin Way提供实时礼宾服务，指导您进行比特币冷存储、运行节点、隐私最佳实践、遗产规划、企业战略以及多重签名解决方案。

The Bitcoin Way offers live concierge service to guide you with your Bitcoin cold storage, running your node, privacy best practices, inheritance planning, corporate strategy, and multisig solutions.

他们不会触碰您的币，而是指导您完成获取和保管比特币的全过程。

They don't touch your coins, they guide you through the process of acquiring your coins and securing them.

如果您想让您的配置更安全可靠，可以预约他们的咨询服务，看看他们有什么建议。

If you would like to make your setup safer and more reliable, book a consult with them and see what they have to suggest.

如果你想赠送某人比特币礼物，这项专业服务能确保他们从一开始就懂得如何管理自己的币而不丢失。

If you want to give someone the gift of Bitcoin, get them this professional service that will ensure they start off knowing exactly how to manage their coins and not lose them.

访问thebitcoinway.com，开始更自信地进行比特币操作。

Go to thebitcoinway.com and start bitcoining more confidently.

是的，我觉得...我的意思是，我不太确定美国的外交政策有多现实，因为你知道，考虑到所有那些贸易闹剧，那些武力炫耀有点过头了...哦对，简直疯狂。

Yeah, I think it's, I mean, I'm not so sure about how realistic US foreign policy is because, know, I think with all of the trade nonsense, that was a little too much of saber rattling to be Oh, yeah, was crazy.

直接去 是的。

To just go to Yes.

因为你看，他们签了这个协议，本质上就是特朗普全面让步，而中国只需撤回报复性措施。

Because I mean, well, you know, they signed this deal, which was essentially Trump walking back everything and China just had to walk back its retaliatory thing.

所以这整出闹剧之后又回到原点非常愚蠢，却给两国关系埋下诸多隐患，还留下一堆棘手问题需要在一两年内重新谈判。

So it was a very silly stunt to go back to square one after this, but to introduce a lot of bad blood in the relationship and to make it so that there's all these stuck issues that need to be renegotiated in a year or two.

整件事完全多此一举，我觉得美国政府内部就是有很多好战分子，似乎铁了心要跟中国开战。

Entire thing was completely needless and I think there are just a lot of aggressive and belligerent, elements within the US government that seem to be hell bent on a Chinese war.

而且我开始感受到，美国对华外交政策正逐渐呈现出我们这辈子见过的那种套路——就像对待其他许多被美国打压的假想敌一样。

And I'm just beginning to get the same kind of, US foreign policy vibe around China that we've seen throughout our lifetime with so many, bogeymen that The US has fought.

我

I

我明白你的意思。

I understand what you're saying.

不过我认为，中国已经变得如此强大，就像《亚洲时报》的韩非子所说，打个比方，假设美国的实力是这样，而中国的实力大概是这样。

I think, however, that China has become so strong that like like, there's a guy named Han Fei Zi of Asia Times, and his point was basically like, let's say US strength was like this, and then China was kind of you know, US strength is like this and Chinese strength was like this.

在2010年代初期开始崛起，现在已经强大到美国反应过来时，中国已经势不可挡。

And then it was kind of coming up in the 20 tens, and now it's gotten so much stronger that by the time The US could turn around to react, like, China is just too strong.

对吧？

Right?

这有点像创业公司的故事。

And, it's kind of like a startup.

就像百视达反应过来要对付网飞时，网飞已经壮大太多了。

Like, you know, by the time Blockbuster turns around to go after Netflix, Netflix is just much bigger.

明白吗？

You know?

是的。

Yeah.

再加上俄乌战争。

And, that plus the Russia Ukraine war.

我认为俄乌战争某种程度上是中美之间的代理人战争，尽管有人会争论中国对俄罗斯的支援程度，同时假装北约没有在乌克兰参战。

I think Russia Ukraine was the China US proxy war in the sense that, you know, people will argue the extent to which China is supplying Russia, and they'll pretend that NATO isn't fighting in Ukraine.

但实际上，他们确实参战了。

But, really, they are.

对吧？

Right?

就像，从某种意义上说，俄罗斯和朝鲜现在做什么事都得中国点头才行。

Like, in the sense, you know, Russia and North Korea don't do something nowadays unless China lets them do it.

比如，为什么朝鲜军队会在那里出现？

Like, why are North Korean troops there?

很可能，几乎可以肯定是中国开了绿灯。

Probably mean, almost certainly China gave the green light for that.

朝鲜不会轻举妄动。

North Korea would not be doing something.

朝鲜就像是中国的附庸国，如今的俄罗斯其实也是。

Like, North Korea is like a Chinese client state, and so is Russia nowadays actually.

俄罗斯本以为乌克兰会变成它的附庸国，但事实上俄罗斯能撑到现在全靠中国的廉价商品供应。

You know, Russia thought Ukraine would become a Russian client state and maybe, but, really, Russia is is alive because it's got all the cheap Chinese goods.

而且不只是苟延残喘。

And, and not just alive.

它正在获胜。

It's winning.

实际上它已经赢了。

It's won, really.

我有个朋友把俄罗斯称为'北亚'。

And, you know, one of my friends calls Russia North Asia.

是啊。

Yeah.

你知道，比如有南亚、东亚这些地区。

You know, like, they're South Asia, East Asia.

俄罗斯已经接纳了它的亚洲属性，而且，你知道，有个叫'西伯利亚力量'的管道项目。

Russia has embraced its Asian nature, and, like, you know, there's something called the power of Siberia pipeline.

他们只是向东倾斜了。

They just leaned east.

对吧？

Right?

他们正在向符拉迪沃斯托克靠拢。

They they're leaning towards Vladivostok.

他们与中国开展了更多合作。

They're doing much more with China.

俄罗斯和中国经济高度互补，因为俄罗斯拥有巨大的自然资源财富，而中国对其先进制造业有着无限需求。

They've got very complementary economies, Russia and China, because Russia has this just enormous wealth of natural resources, China has an infinite hunger for that, for its advanced manufacturing.

这可能意味着，你可以想象这样一个世界：二十世纪末的格局被完全颠倒——美国成了新的俄罗斯，就像那个被孤立、舔舐伤口的前超级大国，虽然还有些发福的肌肉，但实际可能面临分裂。

And, and probably what it means is, like, you can imagine a world where, the late twentieth century is, like, totally inverted in the following way, where America is like the new Russia, where it's kind of like the former superpower that's sort of isolated and licking its wounds, but still has some muscle that's gone to fat, but it might actually be torn in two.

我其实认为民主党会站在中国共产党这边，而共和党会变成比特币极端主义者。

I actually think Democrats will side with Chinese communist and Republicans will become Bitcoin maximalist.

我该谈谈这个吗？

Should I talk about that?

我们刚才是不是讨论过

Did did we talk about

这个？

this one?

我们应该谈的，但我觉得我们已经偏离围棋话题了。

We we should, but I think we've left Go.

围棋。

Go.

太多松散的话题要处理了。确实。

Too many, loose ends to Sure.

确实。

Sure.

开始。

Go.

开始。

Go.

开始。

Go.

开始。

Go.

斯科特。

Scott.

我认为我们最初会讨论俄罗斯和中国的话题，是因为…

I think we were we were, the reason we got into, all of the Russia and China discussion in the first place, think, was we were discussing, sovereign selling territory Yes.

这与网络国家理论有何关联。

And how that relates to the network state's thesis.

那我们就直接…

So let's just get to to that.

结束。

Finish.

好的。

Okay.

行。

Fine.

行。

Fine.

那我们开始吧。

So let's go to that.

很好。

Great.

很好。

Great.

谢谢。

Thank you for Yeah.

感谢回来。

For coming back.

好的。

Okay.

如果我们回到硬通货时代，硬通货就是一种约束。

So if we're going back to the age of hard money, hard money is a constraint.

对吧？

Right?

从某种意义上说，我们基本上得到了自由主义者想要的硬通货和进步派想要的全球政府，只不过这个政府之上的全球政府是比特币——一个凌驾于国家之上、限制各国未经他人同意擅自行动的协议网络。

We're basically getting, in a sense, the hard money that libertarians wanted and the global government that progressives wanted, except that global government of governments is Bitcoin, which is the network that stands above states that limits what states can do without the consent of others.

对吗？

Right?

他们再也不能像过去习惯的那样肆意掠夺了。

And they simply can't steal like they've gotten accustomed to stealing.

这意味着20世纪中国以外国家的商业模式基本上破产了。

That means the twentieth century states business model outside of China is basically busted.

思考这个问题的一种方式是，没收资产的成本增加了。

One way of thinking about that is the cost of seizure increases.

如果你是一个像委内瑞拉那样的盗贼统治国家，假设派遣特警队去某人家中需要花费约4万美元。

If you're a Venezuela like kleptocracy, let's say it costs you about $40,000 to send a SWAT team to somebody's house.

你需要通过这次没收获得价值4万美元的比特币。

You need to make 40,000 in Bitcoin from that seizure.

实际上，要反复做到这一点相当困难。

That's actually hard to do over and over again.

对吧？

Right?

因此，强制没收——这是整个二十世纪国家乃至更早时期的商业模式——将不复存在，取而代之的是订阅制国家。

So coercive seizure, which was the entire twentieth century state and going back quite a while is the business model, that goes away, and you go to the subscription state instead.

对吧？

Right?

只有那些能够说服人们自愿付出的国家才能存活，本质上变成了自愿主义。

Only those states that can persuade people to part with their voluntary, you know, basically becomes voluntarism.

对吧？

Right?

强制手段的可行性将大幅降低。

Coercion becomes far, far, far, far less viable.

你必须转向订阅模式，而非强制手段。

You have to go to subscription rather than coercion.

在实现这一转变的过程中，将会经历巨大的动荡。

This will be there'll be a huge amount of thrash on route to this.

而且，你要知道，国家不会轻易让步，因为它不仅仅是一个实体。

And, you know, like, states will they will not go easily because the state is not just a thing.

它还是一群人，在衰落过程中会嘶吼、撕咬、尖叫、抓挠——这正是正在发生的情况。

It's also a group of people that will just hiss and bite and scream and and and scratch on their way down, which is what's happening.

你最好在各个方面都远离这种混乱。

And you wanna be kind of far away from that in every sense of the term.

但最终，我们会过渡到订阅型国家模式。

But eventually, you go to a subscription state.

比如，我们实际上已经有一个概念验证，而且不止是概念验证。

And, like, for example, we've actually got a proof of concept, is more than proof of concept.

Dropbox、谷歌等公司都拥有数百万用户，有些甚至在全球拥有数亿或数十亿付费订阅用户，它们的收入超过了绝大多数民族国家。

Dropbox, Google, all of them have millions, in some cases, hundreds of millions or even billions of users that pay subscriptions globally, and their revenue is more than the vast majority of nation states.

绝大多数民族国家的人口不足1亿。

Vast majority of nation states have less than a 100,000,000 people.

对吧？

Right?

超过50%的国家人口不足1000万。

More than 50% have less than 10,000,000 people.

因此这些在线网络拥有完全自愿、非强制性的收入生成机制，基本上就是如果用户不付费，服务就会被切断。

So these online networks have a completely voluntary non coercive mechanism of revenue generation, which is basically if someone doesn't pay, then their service is cut off.

而当他们付费后，服务就会恢复。

And when they do pay, it comes back on.

如此简单，如此自动化，没人会生气。

So simple, so automated, nobody gets mad.

这非常公平。

It's very fair.

对吧？

Right?

你只需要绑定你的信用卡。

And you just put your card in.

这种模式可以扩展到全世界每个人，每天都有数十亿次这样的支付发生。

This scales to literally the entire world and every single person, and it happens billions of times a day these payments are made.

关键点在于，Dropbox并不会询问你的收入比例，你不需要按收入百分比支付给Dropbox。

That is actually and crucially, Dropbox is not asking you what's your percentage, you know, you're not giving a percentage of your income to Dropbox.

是的。

Yes.

他们确实设置了分级方案，比如个人版、企业版订阅等，但相比西方国家的累进税率要合理得多。

They do do some kind of tiering where it's like individual enterprise subscription and so and so forth, but it's much more reasonable than the progressive tax rate and so on in in Western states.

对吧？

Right?

所以在2040年左右的时间范围内，你会进入订阅制国家阶段。

So in the, I don't know, the twenty forty time range, you get to the subscription state.

就像，在经历动荡、主权债务危机等等之后。

Like, after the thrash, the sovereign debt crisis, and so on.

而这些受制约的国家实际上更像公司。

And these constrained states are actually a lot more like companies.

坦白说，你知道，你能自愿守护多少领土，谁知道呢？

And frankly, you know, how much territory you can guard voluntarily, who knows?

对吧？

Right?

我认为你会看到大量资产出售。

I think you're gonna see a lot of asset sales.

顺便说，看待这个问题的另一种方式是，澳大利亚和新西兰实际上比七国集团中某些国家治理得更好。

I mean, one way of also looking at this, by the way, you know, Australia and New Zealand are actually better run than they're not actually members of the g seven.

它们是治理得最好的盎格鲁国家。

They're the best run Anglo states.

知道我为什么这么说吗？

Do know why I say that?

也许你对这个很熟悉。

Maybe you're familiar with this.

我不太确定。

I'm not sure.

不知道。

No.

有一张很棒的图表。

So there's a great graph.

如果你需要我可以调出来，上面显示他们的债务与国内生产总值比率是西方国家中最好的。

I can I can pull it up if you want, which shows that they have the best debt to GP ratios of, like, the Western kind of states?

对吧？

Right?

比如澳大利亚就有更多人在矿场之类的地方工作，因为他们从地下挖东西卖给中国。

And Australia, for example, has a lot more guys who are working in mines and stuff like that because they're digging stuff out of ground and selling it to China.

所以他们不像美国那样，中国没有导致他们去工业化。

So they have less like, China isn't deindustrializing them like America.

中国，你知道的，中国与澳大利亚的关系类似于与俄罗斯的关系。

China is, you know, bay China's similar relationship to Australia as it does to Russia.

对吧？

Right?

中国从他们那里购买大量从地下开采出来的自然资源。

It buys lots of natural resources from them that are dug out of the ground and set there.

对吧？

Right?

因此相比美国，澳大利亚蓝领工人的不满情绪更少，而且澳大利亚对自己作为军事力量或全球储备货币的地位没有疑问。

So China has less or rather Australia has less blue collar dissatisfaction relative to America, and it has, it also has no illusions about being a military power or the global reserve currency and so on and so forth.

澳大利亚还做了其他事情，他们出售或转租了大量国家资源，在金融危机前将债务占GDP比例降至4.7%。

And Australia also did something else, which is they sold or subleased a fair amount of national resources to actually get the debt almost down to like 4.7% of GDP right before the financial crisis.

所以直到金融危机前，他们一直是管理最完善的西方经济体。

So they are they were until the financial crisis, the best managed Western economy.

他们实际上证明了这是可以削减的。

They actually showed that that you could you could cut it down.

其中很大一部分是资产出售。

And a big part of that was asset sales.

所以澳大利亚的先例，就像新西兰2%通胀率的先例一样，是个重大事件。

So that the Australian precedent I mean, just like, you know, how the New Zealand precedent of 2% inflation rates was like a big thing.

对吧？

Right?

我是说，至少2%还不错。

I mean I mean, 2% is at least good.

他们有个理论上限。

They have some theoretical cap.

应该是0%。

It should be 0%.

应该像你我皆知的那样是负百分比。

It should be negative percent as you and I both know.

对吧？

Right?

但至少2%比完全失控要好。

But 2% at least is better than like a total.

对吧？

Right?

所以这些小国有时也会影响其他国家。

So the same with these small states sometimes influence others.

我认为澳大利亚有效出售土地的先例，当他们出售土地时，有时是在出售特许权，比如他们的机场不再由国家管理，而是由其他方运营。

I think the Australian precedent of effectively selling land, and when they're selling land, was like sometimes they're selling concessions, like their airport is not managed nationally anymore, but others are managing it.

对吧？

Right?

所以我认为，这是管理相对完善的西方国家未来可能不得不采取的模式。

So that's a model for, I think, where Western states that are reasonably managed are gonna have to go.

这几乎就像出售国有企业一样。

It's almost like selling off state owned enterprises.

对吧？

Right?

现在问题来了。

Now here's the issue.

这假设了存在一个可以与之做生意的政府。

This presumes that there is a government to do business with.

我认为在西欧，至少还能看到政府的影子。

And I think in Western Europe, I think you'll have some semblance of a government.

有趣的是，我在某些方面其实更乐观。

In a funny way, I'm actually in some ways more bullish.

我对美国民众比西欧民众更乐观，但对西欧政府比美国政府更乐观。

I'm more bullish on Americans than Western Europeans, but I'm more bullish on Western European governments than I am on American government on the American government.

要我说说原因吗？

Should I say why?

好啊。

Yeah.

西欧各国政府虽有许多缺陷，但根本上，那里仍然存在着文明社会。

If Western Europe European governments have lots of flaws, but fundamentally, there's, like, still a civil society there.

比如，当你行走时，基础设施更好。

Like, when you walked like, the infrastructure is better.

你知道，其他方面也更优越。

You know, other things are better.

从许多方面来看，他们的人口结构更合理。

Their demographics are better in many ways.

而在美国，美国只出口两样东西：科技和美元。

Whereas in America, the only thing that The US exports are a, tech and b, the dollar.

当美元快速流失时，这就是为什么他们要征收汇款税，为什么有关税。

And when the dollar goes and it's going real fast, that's why they're doing remittance taxes, that's why there's tariffs.

就像任何一项政策，你必须把它们放在一起思考。

It's like any one of these policies, you have to you think about it together.

你知道，我不认为这是阴谋论，而是殖民理论。

You know, I think about it not as a conspiracy theory, but colony theory.

我的论点是这样的。

Here's my argument.

你知道，就像蚁群那样？

You know, like an ant colony?

它是一个超个体，每只蚂蚁最初并不知道自己在做什么，但整个蚁群却有着明确的目标，对吧？

It's a meta organism, And each individual ant doesn't initially know what it's doing, but the colony as a whole knows what it's doing, right?

就像一群海鸥或鱼群那样，我认为美国政府乃至所有政府本质上都是超个体，你可以将其建模为一个有意识的有机体——虽非全能，但就像蚁群一样。

Like a flock of seagulls or a school So of fish, I think of the western US government and all governments really as meta organisms where you can model it as if it's a conscious organism, not omnipotent, but like an ant colony.

蚁群具有一种群体智能，你可以在蚁群层面建立模型。

An ant colony has an intelligence to it where you can model it at the ant colony level.

就像作为人类的你，既有皮肤细胞，也有毛发细胞。

Just like you as a human being, you have like skin cells, you have hair cells.

这些细胞并不完全清楚你在做什么，但它们会配合你的行动。

Those cells don't have a full state of what it is you're doing, but they will kind of work with you when you're doing things.

对吧？

Right?

明白了吗？

Makes sense?

所以如果我们这样建模，把民主党的左右两派看作基本上是在响应

So if we model it that way and you think of democrat left and right as basically responding to

这个信号

the signal

美国政府资金即将耗尽。

of the US government is running out of money.

对吧？

Right?

民主党人说，从亿万富翁那里拿钱，对亿万富翁征税。

The the democrats say, take it from the billionaires, tax the billionaires.

他们对此非常明确，但这大致就是他们的想法。

They're completely enumerate about this, but that's like kind of how they're thinking.

对吧？

Right?

而共和党人说，从外国人那里拿钱，他们对此言之凿凿，因为他们错误地认为——或者说部分正确地认为——是美国在补贴世界，但实际上很大程度上是世界在补贴美国。

And the republicans say, take it from the foreigners, and they're enumerate about it because they think incorrectly, or or they think only partially correctly that America is subsidizing the world, but really much of the world is subsidizing America.

所以我之所以说他们部分正确，是因为确实有数十亿美元被送往，比如说乌克兰用于这场战争，而在夏威夷受影响的民众身上只花费了700美元。

So the reason I say they're partially correct is it is true that billions were sent to, let's say, Ukraine for this war while only $700 was spent in Maui on these people who are affected in Hawaii.

这其中有其真实的一面。

There's a truth to it.

对吧？

Right?

但美元通胀是全球性的税收。

But dollar inflation is global taxation.

所以这些国家都在拼命干活，比如越南正辛苦制鞋运往美国。

And so all these countries that are set like, Vietnam is grinding away to send shoes to America.

他们能得到什么回报呢？

What's it getting back in return?

只有印出来的美元，数据库里的数字。

Printed dollars, database entries.

对吧？

Right?

为什么美国拥有这种权力？

Why does America have that power?

因为它是全球经济的中心，掌控着保护海上航道的所有战舰，还拥有签署了100多项经济协议的外交官，与193个国家签订了所有这些经济协议。

Because it was the center of the global economy, and it ran all the warships that protected the sea lanes, and it had all the diplomats that signed a 100 plus, you know, economic deals, all these economic deals with a 193 countries.

因此它曾是全球帝国的中心，从而有能力不断印钞，因为它为所有人管理着数据库，大家都认为，好吧，至少你是最适合做这件事的人。

And so it had the center of the global empire, and therefore, it had the ability to just print, print, print because it managed the database for everybody because they thought, okay.

嗯，至少你是最合适的人选。

Well, at least you're the best guy to do it.

所以，如果算总账的话，越南向美国运送鞋子换取美国可随意印制的数据库记录，实际上就是越南向帝国中心进贡以换取数据库记录。

And so, really, if you net it all out, Vietnam sending shoes to America for database entries that America can print is really Vietnam sending tribute to the center of the empire for database entries.

对吧？

Right?

而如今美国政府却认为这是不公平的交易，觉得越南在占美国的便宜。

And the US government now thinks that's an unfair deal, that Vietnam is ripping off America.

是啊。

Yeah.

这太荒谬了。

It's ridiculous.

确实荒谬。

It's ridiculous.

对吧？

Right?

现在关于这一点，我有些同情，因为确实——如果你拥有印钞能力，谁还愿意去工厂打工呢？

Now the the thing about this, I have some sympathy for it because it is true that if you have that money printing ability, then why would you ever work in a factory?

我随手就能印出万亿钞票。

I can whip out, you know, a trillion bucks printed right here.

何必为生计奔波去生产螺丝？

Why would I work for a living and make some screws?

对吧？

Right?

换种说法就是，你知道华尔街，你见过那些深海热泉喷出硫磺的场景吗？就像电影里演的那样，明白吧？

Another way of putting it is, you know, with Wall Street, have you ever seen those deep sea vents that, like, belch out sulfur, you know, like in in the movies or, you know right?

而且你知道，那里存在着一些特殊的细菌，它们进化得专门适应喷发硫磺的深海热泉环境。

And, you know, there's, like, these kinds of bacteria, special bacteria that are evolved for the deep sea vent that's belching out sulfur.

对吧？

Right?

所以那个热泉就像美联储，硫磺就是印出来的钱，而那些细菌就是华尔街。

So that vent is like the fed and the sulfur is a printed money and the bacteria are Wall Street.

好的。

Okay.

好吗？

Okay?

华尔街，他们并不像在交易等方面那么聪明。

Wall Street, it's not like they're like so smart about trading and so on and so forth.

只是因为他们靠近印钞的源头。

It's that they're near the flow of printed money.

因此整个经济体系基本上是由美联储补贴的，而美联储又是由全球帝国补贴的，这就是印钞能力。

And so that entire economy is basically subsidized by the Fed, which is subsidized by the global empire, which is the money printing ability.

美国经济对印钞的依赖程度，人们真的不太理解。

The level to which The US economy is dependent on printed money, people just they they just don't really understand it.

他们还以为这是1945年的经济模式。

They still think it's like the economy of 1945.

我称之为'波将金式美国'。

What I call it is a Potemkin American.

你知道，就像波将金村那种假象？

You know, like the Potemkin village?

对吧？

Right?

非常正确。

Very true.

确实如此。

Very true.

可以这么说，关键在于美国经济曾经是真实的。

And one way of putting it is the tricky part about this is The US economy used to be real.

然后它在不知不觉中逐步虚拟化了。

And then it was by degrees virtualized imperceptibly.

这有点像所谓的'缩水式通胀'。

It's it's kind of like, you know, shrinkflation.

就像你刚开始买的是一盒传统包装的品客薯片，或者一箱那种大包装的。

You start with, like, some old school, I don't know, like a, I don't know, a box of Pringles or like a case of Pringles or something like that.

然后工程师们开始动手，他们把底部做成凹陷的，顶部也凹陷，内部空间就这样被压缩了。

And then the engineers get to work and they start popping in the bottom, so it's got like less volume and they pop in the top and, you know, like they they shrink the interior.

他们用尽各种视觉手段，实际上卖的是50盎司的薯片，却按100盎司的价格收费。

They they basically do everything they can in terms of optics so that they're actually selling 50 ounces of chips or whatever rather than a 100 ounce of chips for the same price, you know?

这种虚拟化程度越来越深，情况变得越来越糟糕。

It's like virtualized and by degrees, it just gets worse and worse and worse.

这就是缩水式通胀。

Shrinkflation.

对吧？

Right?

所以缩水式通胀、虚拟化、空心化，随便你怎么称呼，直到这些机构、公司、这些老牌品牌变得像纸板一样脆弱，像特姆金村一样摇摇欲坠。

So shrinkflation, virtualization, pentepkinization, you know, whatever you wanna call it, until you get to this sorry point that these, you know, institutions, these companies, these these legacy brand names are like cardboard and, like, falling over like a Temkin village.

想想CDC、FBI、通用汽车、时代杂志、哈佛这些曾经辉煌的机构，如今所有的活力和生命力都像好莱坞一样正在归零。

And you think of the CDC or the FBI or General Motors or Time Magazine or Harvard or any of these things that used to be like so great and all the energy and life has been Hollywood is going to zero.

对吧？

Right?

这也是为什么好莱坞有这么多续集电影。

All these things are this is also why there's so many sequels coming out of Hollywood.

完全是在重复八十年代的老路。

It's just on repeat from from the eighties.

对吧？

Right?

是啊。

So Yeah.

我是说，

I mean,

我认为这印证了我关于法定货币和万物劣质化的总体论点——由于人们无法为未来储蓄，时间偏好随之上升。

I think it's it's it's it's my general thesis on the Fiat and shitification of everything where because people can't save for the future, people's time preference rises.

开始更严重地透支未来，每个人都想快速捞一笔。

Start discounting the future more, and everybody needs to make a quick buck.

你的企业无法通过制造持久耐用的产品生存，必须不断偷工减料来压低价格，因为通胀持续侵蚀利润空间。而涨价会招致消费者不满，于是只能在质量上妥协，最终导致所有东西都变得劣质。

And your business can't survive by building things that last for a long time, and it needs to always cut corners to try and keep the price down because inflation is always eating in the margins, and people don't like it when you raise the price, so you need to compromise with the quality and so everything gets compromised.

确实，在美国有大量商品就像你所说的波将金村——包装盒上看着像真烤架，组装起来却发现近乎一次性用品，只要一个小零件出问题整个就散架了。

And I mean, yeah, in The US there is an enormous amount of products that are just trinkets and as you say, Potemkin, like you buy the grill and it looks like a real grill on the box, but then you assemble it and it's practically disposable, know, one tiny little thing goes wrong and the whole thing falls apart.

这种现象比比皆是，我认为这本质上就是法定货币体系的问题。

I think there's so much of that and I think it's, yes, it's the fiat issue.

这正是虚假经济的根源：过去五六十年间（更广义来说整个世纪），价格信号和市场反馈机制逐渐被政府法令所取代。

I think this is why it's a fake economy because price signals and market feedback has been replaced over the past five, six decades in particular, but century more generally, has been replaced with government edict.

要知道，如今成为最佳制鞋企业的秘诀不是做出最好的鞋，而是与金融业和政府建立良好关系，获取优质信贷——这样你根本不需要操心鞋子质量。

You know the best way to be the best shoe making company is not to make the best shoes, to be well connected with the financial industry, with the government, be able to secure good credit and then you don't have to worry about the shoes.

你知道，对许多公司来说，玩转外汇市场比搞好生产更重要。

The, you know, playing the foreign exchange market is more important for many companies than being good with their production.

因此一切都转向高时间偏好、短期导向，以及质量妥协和退化。

So things all shift toward high time preference, short term focus, and compromising quality and deterioration.

这就是为什么你会看到所有这些品牌实质上在瓦解，无论是实体还是声誉层面。

And that's why you see all these brand names essentially falling apart, whether physical or reputational.

现在我要说的是，这部分内容我觉得——再次声明，我不会说我对即将说的话有百分之百的信心。

Now I will say something, which is this is a piece that I feel I only again, I would I would not say that I, I don't think I have a 100% confidence in what I'm about to say.

我们暂且称之为一个有待验证的假设，我想探讨、思考等等。

Let's call it a tentative hypothesis I wanna probe on, think about, and so on so forth.

有时我会抛出一个初步的想法。

Sometimes I'll float a draft kind of thing out there.

有些人有时会提出反对意见，比如他们说，看吧。

So one thing some people will sometimes give me a counterargument on is to say, well, look.

中国印了很多钱，有时似乎与美国进行竞争性贬值，他们想通过货币贬值来促进出口。

China prints a lot of money, and they have done at times competitive devaluation seemingly with The US, and they wanna devalue their currency to make their exports great.

为什么这对他们有效，对美国却无效？

Why is it working for them when it's not working for America?

我不得不对此稍作思考，我的初步答案（我保留修改权利，如果我弄错了或类似情况）

And I had to think about this a little bit, and my draft answer, which I reserve the right to change and if I if I get it wrong or something like that.

但我的初步答案基本上是：如果通胀是未经立法的征税——这是米尔顿·弗里德曼的名言，如果你听说过的话

But my draft answer is basically, if inflation is taxation without legislation, that's like Milton Friedman's line if you've heard that one.

对吧？

Right?

而中国正在以这种方式征税

And China's taxing in this way.

最大的区别在于，他们实际上将这些资金用于能真正提升中国人民生产能力的公共工程

The big difference is they're actually spending it on public works that actually do increase the productive, know, capability of the Chinese people.

所以这不只是通往无处的桥梁，或虚假桥梁，或是某些奇怪的制造就业的NGO项目之类

So it's not just a bridge to nowhere or a fake bridge or, like, some weird make work NGO project or something like that.

比如港珠澳大桥这类超级工程，中国确实做了许多非常有意思的公共工程类项目

It's like the Hong Kong, Macau, like, Super Bridge or it's, you know, the like, there's a lot of really interesting public works type things that they've done in China.

基本上，他们把印出来的钱都花掉了

Basically, they spent the printed money

因为你知道在美国他们也花了很多钱在基建上，比如著名的旧金山到洛杉矶的高铁项目，结果你知道的...草都长出来了

cause you know in The US they spend a lot of infrastructure as well you know famously the, the the fast trail between San Francisco and LA that was Well well but it's grass.

支出

Expenditure.

是啊

Yeah.

我是说

I mean

根本没建成

it wasn't built.

小细节而已，但他们确实花了不少钱

Small detail but they still spent a lot of money.

所以我不认为美国是因为基建投入不足才失败的

So I don't think I don't think The US is failing because they're not spending enough on infrastructure.

要知道，他们在旧金山到洛杉矶的高速铁路上花的钱已经够多了，

You know, they're they're clearly spending more than enough on the, SF to LA, fast rail train, which doesn't exist.

但我觉得

But I think It's

问题不在于结果

it's not the results.

他们确实投入了资金，却没有取得相应的成果

They they they have the spending, but they don't have the results.

中国取得了成果

China has results.

是啊

Yeah.

所以从某种意义上说，美国的成本——无论你称之为贪污还是合法贪污

And so in a sense, the American cost or whether you call it graft or you call it legal graft.

对吧？

Right?

就像加州的做法，就是合法的贪污。

Like, what California did is legal graft.

这条高铁花了1000亿美元还是多少来着。

It's a $100,000,000,000 or whatever the number is on the train.

而且，你知道，他们犯了个错误，居然真的发了张照片展示建成的部分。

And and, you you know, they made the mistake of actually posting a photo showing what had been built.

还记得那个吗？

Do remember that?

记得。

Yes.

你

Do you

看到那个了吗？

see that?

你还记得那个吗？

Do you remember that?