恐惧与愤怒：特朗普关税政策的余波

你好。

Hi.

我是乔希·海诺尔，《纽约时报》专职摄影师，负责气候变化相关报道。

I'm Josh Haynor, and I'm a staff photographer at The New York Times covering climate change.

多年来，我们脑海中总浮现出北极熊趴在一块浮冰上的画面。

For years, we've sort of imagined this picture of a polar bear floating on a piece of ice.

这些就是与气候变化相关联的经典影像。

Those have been the images associated with climate change.

我的使命是寻找那些能直观展现气候变化如何影响当下世界的故事。

My challenge is to find stories that show you how climate change is affecting our world right now.

若您想支持《纽约时报》气候与环境团队正在进行的新闻报道工作，请通过我们的网站或应用程序订阅。

If you wanna support the kind of journalism that we're working on here on the climate and environment desk at The New York Times, please subscribe on our website or our app.

特朗普总统宣布对包括欧盟在内的全球各国实施全面关税，这对世界经济是一记重击。

President Trump's announcement of universal tariffs on the whole world, including the European Union, is a major blow to the world economy.

对澳大利亚而言，这些关税虽在意料之中，但请允许我明确表态：它们完全是无理之举。

For Australia, these tariffs are not unexpected, unexpected, but let me be clear, they are totally unwarranted.

加拿大自二战结束以来所依赖的、以美国为核心的全球贸易体系已经终结。

The system of global trade anchored on The United States that Canada has relied on since the end of the second world war is over.

这将给全球数百万人带来严重后果。

The consequences will be dire for millions of people around the globe.

虽然这是一场悲剧，但也是新的现实。

While this is a tragedy, it is also the new reality.

我们紧急插播这条新闻，因为股市正因特朗普总统升级的贸易战而暴跌。

We're coming on the air because the stock market is plummeting in response to president Trump's escalating trade war.

道琼斯指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克指数都一度下跌超过3%。

The Dow, the S and P five hundred, and the Nasdaq were all down more than 3% at one point.

零售类股票尤其遭遇大幅抛售。

Retail stocks in particular really selling off.

耐克、阿迪达斯、Lululemon。

Nike, Adidas, Lululemon.

全球市场

Global markets

也受到了冲击。

are also taking a hit.

我得说，我担心的是股市下跌，并且会长期持续低迷。

My fear, I gotta say, my fear is that stocks are down and they stay down for a protracted period of time.

我是《纽约时报》的迈克尔·巴罗。

From New York Times, I'm Michael Barro.

这里是《每日新闻》。

This is The Daily.

周四，特朗普总统全面新关税的余波在金融市场和外国首都引发震荡，散布恐慌，在许多情况下还激起了愤怒。

On Thursday, the fallout from president Trump's sweeping new global tariffs reverberated across financial markets and foreign capitals, spreading fear and, in many cases, fury.

今天，我们将与我的三位同事彼得·古德曼、娜塔莉·基切洛夫和吉娜·斯迈克一起，试图理解特朗普的战略及其后果。

Today, we try to make sense of Trump's strategy and its consequences with three of my colleagues, Peter Goodman, Natalie Kitcherov, and Gina Smilek.

今天是4月4日，星期五。

It's Friday, April 4.

那么，同事们，欢迎来到圆桌讨论会。

So, colleagues, welcome to the roundtable.

彼得·古德曼，感谢你来到演播室。

Peter Goodman, thank you for being here in the studio.

很高兴来到这里。

Great to be here.

娜塔莉·基托罗夫，感谢你从墨西哥城加入我们。

Natalie Kittoriff, thank you for joining us from Mexico City.

谢谢邀请。

Thanks for having me.

还有，吉娜·斯迈克，我不知道你在欧洲的哪个地方。

And, Gina Smilek, I don't know where in Europe you are.

我在布鲁塞尔，阳光明媚的布鲁塞尔。

I am in Brussels, sunny Brussels.

感谢你从阳光明媚的布鲁塞尔加入我们。

Thank you for joining us from sunny Brussels.

我们邀请三位是因为你们在报道世界三大地区方面拥有丰富经验，这些地区正处于这一历史性、具有历史破坏性时刻的中心——特朗普针对恐怖分子的全面全球计划，他称之为美国的'解放日'。

We have assembled the three of you because you have tremendous experience covering the three regions of the world that are at the center of this historic and historically disruptive moment, Trump's sweeping global plans for terrorists, what he's calling liberation day for The US.

彼得，你在亚洲生活多年，多年来一直负责亚洲地区的报道工作。

Peter, you have covered Asia for years and years for the time you lived there for many years.

吉娜，你负责欧洲地区的报道。

Gina, you are covering Europe.

娜塔莉，你是我们关于墨西哥经济问题的权威，某种程度上也可以说是整个北美地区的经济专家。

Natalie, you are our economic authority on Mexico, but really, in some sense, North America.

那么我的第一个问题想问你们三位：经过24小时的思考后，你们认为总统刚刚宣布的消息有多重要？

So my first question to the three of you, with twenty four hours to reflect on what the president just announced, how big a deal is this?

我想先从你开始，彼得。

I wanna start with you, Peter.

老实说，很难用语言形容这件事的重要性。

It's honestly difficult to convey how big a deal this is.

这是一个令人震惊的进展。

This is an astonishing development.

这个进展直接针对主导我们大多数人生活的全球化模式。

It is a development that takes direct aim at the mode of globalization that has dominated most of our lives.

我的意思是，我们成长在一个被灌输'地点无关紧要'观念的世界里。

I mean, have grown up in a world where we've been invited to imagine that place really doesn't matter.

如果你拥有能够跨越海洋的集装箱船，把工厂生产转移到成本最低或效率最高的地方，那么俄亥俄州的工厂在功能上就等同于中国的工厂。

If you've got container ships that can bridge the oceans and you send factory production wherever it's cheapest or most efficient, then factory in Ohio is the functional equivalent of a factory in China.

无论你对这些关税有何看法，它们将如何发挥作用，以及是否能解决贸易政策中暴露出的问题，这显然直接挑战了'地点无关紧要'的观念。

And whatever you think about these tariffs and how they're gonna play and whether they're gonna fix the problems that have popped up and emerged from trade policy, this is clearly taking direct aim at that sense of place isn't supposed to matter.

以及整个那个时代。

And that entire era.

没错。

That's right.

而我们制定政策的核心依据是必须服务消费者，消费者想要便宜的商品，而过去几十年这些廉价商品主要来自中国、墨西哥等地。

And where we essentially make policy on the strength of the argument that the consumer must be served, and the consumer wants cheap stuff, and cheap stuff has in the last few decades come in from places like China, Mexico as well.

这次政策转向至少表面上是关于我们必须在美国本土制造产品。

And this is a reorientation of policy that at least, you know, on its face is about we gotta make stuff in The United States.

有很多理由怀疑它能否奏效，能否满足目标群体的需求，但至少大体上这就是政策方向。

There are a lot of reasons to doubt whether it'll work, whether it will satisfy the people it's aimed at satisfying, but that at least in broad strokes is the policy.

全球化不好，国内生产才好。

Globalization's bad, making stuff at home is good.

娜塔莉，规模有多大？

Natalie, how big?

我是想说，迈克尔，你可能会原谅我们三个。

I mean, I was gonna say, Michael, that you might forgive the three of us.

我想我们不是现任就是前任商业记者，在这个圆桌会议上对这一切都特别激动。

I think we're all either current or former business reporters That's on this roundtable for being really worked up about all of this.

你可能会觉得我们有点兴奋，因为这是我们的专业领域，但这事关重大。

You might think that we're, you know, a little bit excited because this is our sandbox that we play in, but it's a huge deal.

这不仅对市场影响巨大——我们正看到全球市场的剧烈反应，而且正如彼得所说，这对美国人的生活方式也影响深远。

It's not just a huge deal for markets, which we're seeing a massive reaction in global markets, But it's a huge deal for the way that Americans live their lives, as Peter is saying.

我们正在谈论的是贸易秩序的全盘重构，这不仅仅是经济学书呆子关心的事。

We're talking about a total reconfiguration of the trade order, and that is not just an econ nerd concern.

没错。

Right.

所以这影响巨大。

So it's huge.

吉娜，有没有什么论点能说明这件事不像你这些夸张的同事们声称的那么重要？

Gina, any argument that this is not a big a deal as these hyperbolic colleagues of yours are claiming it is?

我开玩笑的。

I'm joking.

没有。

No.

完全没有异议。

No argument at all.

我认为这是件大事。

I think this is a massive deal.

早些时候有人告诉我，今天就是那种具有分水岭意义的日子。

I had someone earlier actually tell me that this is one of those before and after days.

你知道，我们会记住今天之前的世界，也会记住今天之后的世界。

You know, we're going to remember the world before today, and we're going to remember the world after it.

这可以说是一个可能从根本上重构全球经济格局的时刻。

And it just sort of you know, this is a moment that is going to fundamentally reorder the global economy potentially.

同时，我现在身处欧洲，这里正经历着对跨大西洋关系的多方位冲击。

And I think at the same time, I I mean, I'm sitting in Europe right now where this is part of what is really a multipronged assault on the transatlantic relationship.

这是其中的一部分

This is part of

对。

Right.

某种程度上的美欧脱钩正在发生——美国与其贸易伙伴欧盟之间，要知道过去八十年来它们一直是最亲密的盟友。

A sort of decoupling that is happening between The US and its trading partner, the European Union, which has, you know, for eighty years been among its closest allies.

因此我认为无论从外交还是经济层面，都很难夸大此事的意义。

And so I think it's hard to overstate what this means diplomatically and not just economically.

好的。

Okay.

既然我们已经认识到这件事的重大性，现在我想请大家帮忙解析这背后的战略意图。

So now that we have absorbed the bigness of this all, I wanna ask you all to help make sense of this as a strategy.

彼得，当你审视这些关税政策时，有一点变得非常清晰——尽管它们看起来具有普遍性，但实际上明显是针对特朗普政府的老对手，即亚洲地区。

And, Peter, one of the things becomes very clear when you look at these tariffs is that as universal as they appear, they are seemingly pretty targeted at a familiar trade foe of the Trump administration, and that is Asia.

看吧。

Look.

核心目标一直是中国。

It's always been about China, principally.

这是因为中国是世界工厂。

And that's because China is the world's factory.

这里曾汇聚了大量追逐廉价劳动力的投资——

It's a place where enormous amounts of investment went chasing

在全球自由贸易时代，没错。

cheap In world's the free trade era, yeah.

在自由贸易时代，中国已成为从汽车零部件到化工产品，从运动鞋服装到健身车等各类商品的主导供应国。

In the free trade era, mean, China has become the dominant purveyor of all kinds of things, from auto parts to chemicals to sneakers and clothing and exercise bikes.

所以如果你像特朗普那样，从双边贸易逆差（说白了就是我们买你们东西更多）的角度来看问题——

So if you come at things as Trump does from the standpoint that a bilateral trade deficit, which is a fancy way of saying, we buy more stuff from you Right.

比你们从我们这里购买的要多。

Than you buy from us.

如果你从认为这是坏事且表明你在被剥削的角度出发——这个概念经济学家们是强烈反对的——那么中国就显得尤为突出。

If you come at it from the standpoint that that's bad and a sign that you're getting ripped off, which is a concept that economists take real issue with, then China stands out.

不仅仅是中国。

It's not just China.

看看这张图表。

Look look at this chart.

越南现在面临46%的新关税。

Vietnam, now hit with a new tariff that represents 46%.

越南实际上就是中国的延伸。

Well, Vietnam is effectively the extension of China.

49%，泰国37%，马来西亚

49%, Thailand 37%, Malaysia

这正是因为在特朗普第一任期内实施这些关税时，许多像沃尔玛这样的大公司——举个明显例子，但实际上是所有销往北美市场的公司。

This is precisely because in the first Trump administration when Trump unleashed these tariffs, a lot of big companies like Walmart, pick an obvious example, but really every company that sells into North American market.

嗯，不想向中国支付所有这些关税。

Well, don't wanna pay all these tariffs to China.

看来美中脱钩这事是真的。

Seems like this US China divorce thing is real.

我们最好去找另一个工资更低的国家。

We better go find another lower wage country.

而且，中国企业将大量投资转移到越南、柬埔寨等地，直接把他们的模式输出到这些

And moreover, Chinese companies moved a lot of investment into places like Vietnam and Cambodia, and they just exported their model to these

其他国家。

other countries.

制造商通过侧门离开中国进入他们的

Manufacturers took a side door out of China into their

没错。

That's right.

邻近经济体。正是如此。

Neighboring economies Exactly.

在那里开店。

Set up shop there.

同样存在贸易失衡的问题。

Same problem with trade imbalance.

没错。

That's right.

所以当

And so when

所以这是为了阻止这种情况。

So this is meant to catch that.

这是为了阻止这种情况，并从特朗普政府的角度将生产转移到更友好的地方。

This is meant to catch that and divert production to friendlier places from the Trump administration standpoint.

明白了。

Got it.

所以，如果我们考虑亚洲的重点，目标就是大幅提高亚洲商品进入美国的成本，从而阻止所有那些商品来自那些地方的贸易情景

So the goal, if we think about the focus on Asia, is to make it far more expensive for goods to come from Asia to The United States, thereby discouraging that trade scenario where all that stuff comes from those places

没错。

That's right.

首先。

In the first place.

确实如此。

That's right.

好的。

Okay.

这个策略我觉得我能理解。

That's the strategy that I think I can wrap my head around.

娜塔莉，你认为北美这边采取的策略是什么？

Natalie, what in your mind is the strategy here for the North American side of that equation?

嗯，好吧。

Well, okay.

目前还不太清楚具体目标是什么。

It's not totally clear exactly what the aim is here.

但正如彼得刚才所说，这些关税似乎很大程度上旨在切断亚洲作为制造业来源的渠道。

But as Peter just said, it sort of seems as though a big motive of these tariffs is to shut down Asia as a source of manufactured goods.

而周三宣布的关税政策并未将墨西哥和加拿大包括在内。

And the tariffs that were announced on Wednesday did not include Mexico and Canada.

很明显这是有意为之。

Notably and obviously by design.

没错。

Right.

我接触的一些分析师认为，此举的目标或至少可能产生的效果是强化北美贸易集团。

There is this sense among some of the analysts that I've been talking to that the goal here or at least a potential effect is to strengthen the North American trading block.

那么如果不选择越南或中国，还能去哪里？

So where do you go if it's not Vietnam or China?

你可能会选择墨西哥。

You potentially go to Mexico.

当然，特朗普最理想的情况是让你选择美国。

I mean, obviously, Trump's ideal is that you go to The United States.

但即便你不选择美国，一个潜在结果是制造商们会更有动力在墨西哥、美国或加拿大生产产品。

But even if you don't go to The United States, a potential outcome here is that there is more incentive for manufacturers to make their stuff in Mexico, in The United States, or in Canada.

北美贸易集团可能因此获得优待，这是潜在的收益。

And there's a potential gain there for the North American trading block, which is that it gets preferential treatment.

我们不确定这是否会发生，但正如你所说迈克尔，这种设计似乎正引导我们朝这个方向发展。

We don't know if that's what's gonna happen, but it certainly seems as though, as you said, Michael, the design might lead us there.

当然这很复杂，因为你说得对，特朗普正试图建立一个更强大的北美贸易集团。

Now that's complicated, of course, because of what you're saying is true, that Trump is trying to create a much stronger North American kind of trading block.

他采取的方式非常奇怪——在此之前就不断攻击墨西哥和加拿大，并单独威胁对它们加征关税。

He's been going about it in a very strange way given how much he's been attacking both Mexico and Canada and threatening tariffs on them individually even before this.

如果我们本该作为亲密无间的合作伙伴共同运作，现实却完全不是这种感觉。

So if we're all supposed to be operating as one vast beloved set of partners, it hasn't been feeling that way.

确实没有。

No.

数周来他一直在打墨西哥和加拿大的脸。

For weeks, he's been smacking Mexico and Canada in the face.

我是说，周四已经对成品车辆实施了25%的关税。

I mean, there are 25% tariffs that went into effect on Thursday on finished vehicles.

我们预计同样的关税将在五月对汽车零部件生效。

We expect the same tariffs to go into effect on auto parts in the May.

钢铁和铝制品也有关税。

There are tariffs on steel and aluminum.

这对加拿大打击尤其严重。

That really hits Canada hard.

墨西哥也受到冲击。

It also hits Mexico.

所有不属于美墨加三国自由贸易协定（USMCA）范畴的商品都面临25%关税。

There are 25% tariffs on all goods that don't fall within the USMCA, the free trade agreement between the three countries.

这对这些国家是巨大的经济负担，也是它们与美国贸易关系的重大打击。

This is a huge economic burden on these countries and a big, big hit to their trading relationship with The United States.

因此，虽然北美贸易集团可能因此得到加强，但该安排中的两个主要贸易伙伴也将面临实实在在的负面影响。

And so it would seem as though this potential world in which the trading block of North America is strengthened also comes with real downsides for the two major trading partners in that arrangement.

嗯

Mhmm.

我能提个古怪的观点吗？

Can I throw a wonky point at you?

当然

Sure.

我认为值得记住的是，美墨加三国经济高度融合，当我们从墨西哥购买成品时，其价值中约30%实际上来自美国，你知道的，是美国劳动力创造的。

So I think it's worth remembering that there's so much integration between The US, Mexican, Canadian economies, that when we buy a finished good from Mexico, something like 30 on the dollar, the value of that good, actually made in The United States, you know, with American labor.

而中国的对应数值是每美元3美分。

The counterpart number for China is 3¢ on the dollar.

对

Right.

中国的国家政策旨在将这个数字尽可能趋近于零。

And Chinese state policy is directed at driving that number as close to zero as possible.

所以回顾特朗普第一届政府时期就存在这个现象——如果我们假设（当然有很多理由可以辩论），你知道真正的目标是什么？

So it's been true, you know, going back to the first Trump administration that if we assume, and there are lot of reasons to debate, you know, what's the real objective?

特朗普真正想做什么？

What does Trump really wanna do?

他只是想集中权力吗？

Does he just wanna centralize power?

他想要制造混乱吗？

Does he want chaos?

随便吧。

Whatever.

但如果我们暂且接受——仅为了本次讨论——其核心是将生产迁回美国，为美国创造就业。

But if we take as a given, just for the sake of this conversation That's all about bringing production back to The United States, generating jobs in The United States.

其实墨西哥和加拿大始终是解决我们'中国问题'的潜在方案（此处为虚拟语气）。

Well, it's always been true that Mexico and Canada are the potential solution, I'm putting in air quotes, to our also air quoted China problem.

我们刚经历了令人困惑的几个月，期间形势仿佛在说'糟糕'。

And we've gone through a very bewildering couple of months where it seemed like, oh, no.

或许墨西哥成了特朗普的敌人？或许我们真的...

Maybe Mexico is the enemy to the Trump Oh, maybe we really

其实并非如此。

are not really the case.

因为你说将制造业带回北美，即便是在墨西哥，也远胜于其他方式，更能促进美国生产和经济

Because you're saying bringing manufacturing back to North America, even if it's Mexico, is more American production and better for the American economy by far

为美国人创造就业机会。

meeting opportunities for Americans.

这开始让我觉得合理多了。

This is starting to make a lot more sense to me.

吉娜，欧洲在这其中扮演什么角色？

Gina, where does Europe fit into all of this?

美国通过对欧洲盟友加征关税能获得什么？

And what does The US get from hitting our allies in Europe with tariffs?

当然我承认自己可能有所不知。

And I'm sure I'm ignorant.

制造业中哪些工作岗位会从欧洲回流到美国？

What kind of jobs are gonna be coming from Europe back to The US in manufacturing?

我认为有几个原因。

So I think there are several reasons.

我认为其中一个原因是特朗普政府希望欧洲在一些战略目标上做出让步。

I think one is that there are these strategic goals the Trump administration wants to get Europe to bend on.

它希望欧洲改变其数字监管政策。

It wants them to change their digital regulation policies.

它希望欧洲改变某些税收政策。

It wants them to change some of their taxation policies.

因此我认为目标是就此进行谈判。

And so I think the goal is to negotiate on some of that.

我认为政府还非常关注几个在欧洲也很关键的重要行业。

I think there are also a few key industries that the administration cares about a lot that do matter in Europe.

嗯。

Mhmm.

汽车就是其中之一。

Cars are one of them.

我们确实看到了这种将汽车产业回迁本土的意愿，而且欧洲确实拥有一些非常庞大的汽车产业。

We definitely see this desire to reshor the automobile industry, and there are some really big car industries in Europe.

想想宝马，你知道的，还有像奥迪这样的全球品牌。

Think BMW, you know, think the Audis of the world.

嗯。

Mhmm.

因此我认为在这场多线并进的贸易战中，欧洲显然成为了主要目标，部分原因是贸易和经济因素，但实际上还有相当一部分原因比这更为广泛。

And so I think in this sort of multipronged trade war, Europe is very clearly in the crosshairs for reasons that are partially trade and economic related and partially actually quite a bit broader than that.

我想接着谈谈汽车和产业回迁这个话题。

I wanna pick up on cars and the idea of of reshoring.

那么，娜塔莉和彼得，这个想法到底有多现实呢？

And, Natalie and Peter, how realistic is the idea?

而且这不仅仅与欧洲相关。

And it's not just related to Europe.

通过这些关税措施，美国真的能把更多汽车制造业岗位带回国内吗？

That through these tariffs, The United States is going to be bringing more car manufacturing jobs back to The US.

我们详细讨论过汽车是由全球各地组装的零部件构成的这一事实。

We've talked at length about the fact that cars are made up of component parts assembled all over the world.

所以这个问题很快就会变得非常棘手。

So this gets really tricky really fast.

现代汽车有三万个零部件。

30,000 parts in modern cars.

天啊，这真令人震惊。

Man, it's astonishing.

我认为汽车行业是推动产业回迁战略最明显的领域。

I think that cars are the most obvious place to drive the reshoring strategy.

你知道，就像你说的那样。

You know, it's something you're saying Yeah.

我们会用关税打击你，除非你在美国本土生产——当然还有一大堆附加条件。

We will stick you with tariffs if you don't make your stuff in The United States with a whole bunch of caveats.

我们来看看像现代这样的公司。

You know, let's take a look at a company like Hyundai.

这个集团不仅拥有现代汽车品牌，还拥有起亚。

This is the group that owns not only Hyundai, the brand, but Kia as well.

这是一家韩国公司。

This is a South Korean company.

没错。

Right.

因此他们投入巨资在乔治亚州建厂，当时是基于能够利用全球供应链获取零部件的理解。

So they've spent significant amounts of money setting up factories in Georgia, and they did that with the understanding that they could tap the global supply chain for their parts and components.

现在我们却告诉他们，你们要为钢材和铝材支付更多费用。

Now we're telling them you're gonna pay more for steel, more for aluminum.

我们不确定从马来西亚、中国等地进口电子元件会适用哪些关税。

We're not sure what is gonna apply in terms of tariffs if bringing in electronics from, you know, Malaysia, from China.

因此最终效果可能是——我们其实也不清楚会如何发展。

And so the net effect of this could be and we don't really know how this will play out.

现代汽车可能会说，好吧，无论我们要做什么，都会放慢节奏。

That Hyundai will say, well, whatever we're gonna do, we're gonna do it more slowly.

也许我们不会增加那班额外轮班。

Maybe we won't add that extra shift.

在美国吗？

In The US?

是的。

Yeah.

我是说，你可以看到加快步伐的压力，减少从韩国进口成品车，用国内制造的汽车替代。

I mean, you could see the pressure to move faster faster to reduce your import of finished cars from Korea, replace that with your domestically made cars.

只不过，你仍然无法确定能否获得全球供应链的支持。

Except, again, you you don't know about your access to the global supply chain.

这又不是说你能一按开关，突然所有造车需要的材料就都回到美国了。

It's not like you can just flip a switch and suddenly all the stuff you need to make a car just comes back to The United States.

没错。

Right.

我只是想复述一下你刚才说的重点。

I just wanna recap what you're saying.

这有点复杂，但非常引人入胜。

It's a little bit complicated, very fascinating.

像现代这样的公司，完全按照我们美国对韩国公司的期望去做了。

A company like Hyundai did exactly what we in The US say we want a company from South Korea to do.

没错。

Right.

他们将更多制造业务转移到美国，结果我们在过去48小时内用这些新关税给他们增加了各种成本，某种程度上会削弱他们当初转移过来的初衷。

They moved more manufacturing to The US, then we just hit them within the last forty eight hours with all these new costs through these tariffs that are gonna kinda undermine the fact that they moved here in the first place.

正是如此。

Exactly.

这项政策本应是为了把工作岗位带回美国，为蓝领工人创造更多就业机会。

And so here's this policy that's supposed to be about bringing jobs back to The United States, creating more jobs for blue collar workers.

但我们却把矛头指向了一些已经在这里的岗位。

And we've taken aim at some jobs that are already here.

我们给这家完全按照要求行事的大型跨国公司注入了更多焦虑，增加了更多变数和不确定性。

We have injected greater anxiety, added more variables and uncertainty to this large multinational company that did exactly what they were supposed to be doing.

娜塔莉，彼得所描述的是一种可能出现的僵局，当企业面对这些关税时，会担心消费者此刻不会买单。

Natalie, what Peter's describing is a kind of paralysis that might set in as companies look at these tariffs and fear that consumers are not gonna be biting in this moment.

这是你预期的情况吗？

Is that something you expect?

我认为，我们正看到很多不确定性。

I mean, I think, you know, we're seeing a lot of uncertainty.

确实如此。

That's true.

不确定性确实会导致决策瘫痪。

And uncertainty does cause paralysis.

但我们必须记住，美国是世界上最重要的消费经济体，企业已经在想方设法尽可能确保自己能免税进入这个市场。

But I think that we have to keep in mind that America is just the most important consumer economy in the world, and companies are already trying to figure out how to secure their duty free access to that market, you know, as much as they can.

我同意不确定性占主导地位，但我确实认为现在有动机去想办法解决这个问题，因为你希望能够向美国消费者销售产品。

And I agree that uncertainty reigns, but I just I do think that there is a motive now to figure out how to make this work just because you wanna be able to sell to American consumers.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我能稍微补充一点吗？

Can I complicate that a little bit?

因为实际上我认为情况确实如此。

Because I actually I think that is absolutely the case.

不过我认为这里还有一个更复杂的层面，那就是我们将看到企业和国家都在试图寻找其他市场来替代美国消费者。

I think there's also a more complicated dimension here, though, which is that I think we're going to see both companies and countries trying to figure out what other markets they might access to replace American consumers.

我认为目前在欧洲这种现象非常普遍。

I think we're seeing that a lot in Europe right now.

欧洲应对这一重大挑战的主要策略之一就是结交新朋友。

I think Europe, one of their big strategies for dealing with this very large problem that they have been presented with is to go find new friends.

嗯。

Mhmm.

他们正在全球范围内四处奔走，试图寻找可以结盟的对象，以确保他们的产品有消费市场可销。

They are just sort of making the rounds, going all around the world trying to figure out, you know, who that they can buddy up with to try and make sure that they have a consumer market to sell their products into.

具有象征意义的是，欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩事发时正在中亚讨论贸易问题。

Symbolically relevant that Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, was actually in Central Asia talking about trade when this all went down.

好的。

Okay.

那么，说到这里，我们要稍作休息。

Well, on that note, we're gonna take a break.

休息回来后，我们将讨论在各位所负责的地区，各国可能针对美国刚刚实施的这些关税采取怎样的报复措施。

And when we come back, we're gonna talk about what retaliation we suspect is gonna look like from all the countries in the regions you all cover against The United States in response to what we have just done with these tariffs.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

我是安德鲁·索尔金，DealBook的创始人。

This is Andrew Osorkin, the founder of DealBook.

每年我都在纽约市举办的DealBook峰会上采访全球政界、文化界和商界最具影响力的领袖。

Every year, I interview some of the world's most influential leaders across politics, culture, and business at the DealBook Summit, a live event in New York City.

比如网球冠军塞雷娜·威廉姆斯。

Figures like tennis champion Serena Williams.

女子体育现在并没有迎来高光时刻。

Women's sports is not having a moment.

它一直都在那里。

It's always been there.

你们只是现在才注意到。

You guys are just noticing.

以及OpenAI的首席执行官山姆·奥特曼。

And OpenAI's CEO, Sam Altman.

我们必须把这些系统推向世界。

We gotta put these systems out in the world.

社会与技术必须共同进化。

Society and the technology have to co evolve.

在本年度播客中，您将听到我与加州州长加文·纽森、演员兼制片人哈莉·贝瑞、查理·柯克遗孀埃里卡·柯克、Palantir与Anthropic及黑石集团CEO，以及更广为人知的'野兽先生'吉米·唐纳森未经剪辑的对话。

On this year's podcast, you'll hear my unfiltered conversations with California governor Gavin Newsom, actor and producer Halle Berry, Erica Kirk, the widow of Charlie Kirk, the CEO of Palantir and Anthropic and BlackRock, and Jimmy Donaldson, known better as mister beast.

在您获取播客的任何平台收听《DealBook峰会》。

Listen to DealBook Summit wherever you get your podcasts.

那么彼得、吉娜、娜塔莉，让我们来讨论未来几个月事态将如何发展，特别是这些刚遭受关税打击的国家将如何采取报复行动，以及这些报复措施带来的影响——他们正为此愤懑不已，并计划对我们实施反击。

So, Peter and Gina, Natalie, let's talk about how this is all gonna play out over the next few months, specifically in the form of retaliation and the impacts of the retaliation from the countries who've just been hit with these tariffs and are stewing over that and planning to essentially fire back at us.

我们应该从哪里开始？

Where should we start?

谁觉得自己最了解即将到来的报复措施？

Who feels like they have the best handle on the coming retaliation?

可能是吉娜吧。

Probably Gina does.

对。

Yeah.

吉娜，你来。

Gina, go.

你正处在报复领域。

You're in retaliation land.

是啊。

Yeah.

我们这边已经进入报复模式了。

We're in retaliation mode already over here.

确实如此。

So Yeah.

我们在报复行动方面是先行者。

We were we were early movers on the retaliation front.

吉娜，值得说明的是，欧盟作为美国的贸易伙伴规模有多大？这对报复行动的意义是什么？

Is it worth saying, Gina, that the the European Union is how big a trading partner is it to The US when we think about the meaning of retaliation?

非常巨大。

Huge.

极其庞大。

Enormous.

当你把欧盟视为一个整体，实际上是由27个国家组成，它本质上是美国最大的贸易伙伴。

When you think about the EU as a block, actually, all 27 countries that form it, it is The US's biggest trading partner, essentially.

在服务贸易方面，欧盟从美国购买的服务实际上远多于它向美国出售的服务。

And when it comes to services, it actually buys a lot more services from The US than it sells into The US.

我们所说的服务具体指什么，为了明确一下？

When we say services, what do we mean, just to be clear?

当我们说服务时，指的是金融服务，比如银行业务。

When we say services, we mean things like financial services, you know, banking services.

但最重要的是，我们指的是技术服务，包括云计算、谷歌搜索等。

But most importantly, we mean technology services, the cloud, the Google searches.

这与当前形势高度相关，因为我们看到欧盟已通过宣布对商品加征额外关税进行报复。

And the reason that that's so relevant is what we've seen so far is that the European Union has very much retaliated by announcing additional tariffs on goods.

据说将对威士忌、摩托车、女性内衣等一系列产品加征关税。

It is said that it's going to put tariffs on things like whiskey and motorcycles and women's lingerie and a whole list of products.

嗯

Mhmm.

但从我们的报道和这边消息来源所了解的情况来看，他们也在认真考虑对服务贸易设置某种壁垒

But what we know from our reporting, what we're hearing about from our sources over here is that they are also very much considering slapping some kind of trade barrier on services.

这确实将是欧盟前所未有的一次重大突破，可能极具威力，并有很大风险使这场贸易战显著升级

This would really be sort of crossing a Rubicon that the European Union hasn't previously crossed, but it could potentially be really powerful, and it could have the real risk of escalating this trade war pretty significantly.

这个重大突破具体会是什么形式？

What does it look like, this crossed Rubicon?

这是否意味着他们要对我们科技行业征税？

Does that mean they're gonna tax our tech?

从本质上说可能就是这意思。

That essentially is what it might mean.

我们今天看到一位法国官员建议，这可能是对互联网技术信息服务征税的某种形式。

So we saw a French official today suggest that this would be some version of a tax on information services on Internet technologies.

这类措施显然仍在制定中。

This is very much the kind of thing that is clearly still under development.

他们一直试图对此保密。

They've been trying to keep it under wraps.

所以我认为我们仍在等待最终的实际报复措施出台，以确切了解这在现实中会是什么样子。

And so I think we're still waiting for the final actual retaliation to come through to try and understand exactly what this would look like in real life.

但我

But I

你们这里的科技经济搞得不错啊。

would Nice little tech economy you got here.

希望它不会出什么事。

I hope nothing happens to it.

正是如此。

Exactly.

但是，彼得，你能解释一下为什么这很重要吗？

But, Peter, can you explain why does that matter?

当我想到亚马逊或Meta这些公司被欧洲征税时，表面上看起来似乎不是什么大事。

When I think of Amazon or Meta, these companies getting taxed by Europe wouldn't on its face seem like such a big deal.

我漏掉了什么？

What am I missing?

因为欧洲就像是世界的加州。

Because Europe is like the California of the world.

它足够大，以至于他们制定的标准会影响全球的商业本质。

It's the one that's big enough that the standards that they set affect the nature of business everywhere.

欧洲体量庞大。

Europe's huge.

我是说，你谈论的是从希腊到爱尔兰横跨27个国家。

I mean, you're talking about 27 countries that extend from Greece to Ireland.

如果欧洲在隐私保护方面采取一致行动，并开始审视税收政策，那将对美国经济中相当大的一部分构成严重问题。

And if Europe, if they start to take a coherent approach to privacy and they start to look at taxation, that will be a significant problem for a very big chunk of The US economy.

这将为全球贸易战开辟一个全新的战线。

And that would open up a vast new front in this global trade war.

没错。

Right.

所以你的意思是，如果欧洲决定将美国科技企业排除在外，那么美国科技行业会突然变得非常不满，他们很可能会告诉特朗普总统关税是导火索，这是有效的报复手段。

So you're saying if Europe decides to cut American tech out of Europe, then suddenly the American tech industry is really unhappy, and they're probably gonna tell president Trump that the tariffs are the reason why, that is effective retaliation.

如果他们以市场准入为要挟，施加新税收、新监管，确实可能迫使商界领袖表态：等等，这可不是我们当初同意的条件。

If they threaten access, they threaten new taxes, new regulations, that yes, that could be further forced toward business leaders saying, hold on a second, we didn't sign up for this.

我们当初支持的是减税、放松监管和一切照常。

We signed up for tax cuts and deregulation and business as usual.

我们可没同意被踢出这个可能是地球上最大的市场。

We didn't sign up for getting kicked out of our potentially largest market on earth.

嗯

Mhmm.

我想补充一点，欧洲特别针对科技行业讨论并非偶然。

And I wanna just add, I think it's not an accident that Europe is talking about tech in particular.

我认为部分原因是该行业目前与白宫关系密切，因为他们一直在进行讨好行动，与特朗普政府建立了友好关系。

I think it's partially because that industry is so affiliated with the White House right now because they have been doing this ingratiation exercise because they've made friends with the Trump White House.

没错。

Right.

所以我认为这个策略是：打击科技行业就等于打击X公司、Meta公司，可能还会波及那些CEO与总统关系密切的大型科技企业。

And so I think the idea is if you hit tech, you're hitting x, you're hitting meta, you're potentially hitting these big tech companies that have got CEOs who are really close to the president.

这可能是迫使白宫回到谈判桌的有效方式——而谈判正是欧洲的终极目标。

And that might be an effective way to really sort of force the White House to come to the negotiating table, which for Europe is the end goal.

我能

Can I just

请说吧，娜塔莉？

Go ahead, Natalie?

我只想提出一个变数，虽然我理解你所说的这是个精心设计的潜在报复策略，但我们确实不知道它会有多有效。

I just wanna throw a wrench into things, which is I hear you that it is a well designed potentially strategy for retaliation, but we just don't know how effective it's gonna be.

因为举例来说，这些针对汽车制造商的关税问题已经持续发酵很久了。

Because, for example, these tariffs that are hitting the auto manufacturers have been a big deal for a long time now.

这些高管们非常不满。

These executives are not happy.

他们一直在抱怨这件事。

They have been complaining about it.

他们不断前往白宫游说。

They've been going to the White House.

但我们看到的是，尽管华尔街和高管们反应强烈，特朗普却出人意料地坚持不改弦更张。

What we've seen is that Trump has been surprisingly resistant to changing course even though there have been big reactions on Wall Street and by executives.

所以我不确定这些科技公司高管去找特朗普抱怨是否真能改变什么——

And so I'm not sure we know that these tech executives kind of going to Trump and complaining is gonna really make a difference I

我认为这个观点完全正确。

I think that's that's absolutely true.

我们不知道。

We don't know.

没错。

Right.

事实上，目前完全不清楚那些害怕得罪MAGA阵营的商业领袖们是否有意愿采取行动，无论发生什么——关税也好，股市下跌也罢。

And in fact, it's not at all clear that there's an appetite amongst business leaders who are afraid to cross MAGA, whatever happens, tariffs, stock market falling.

不过我认为可以公平地说，这似乎确实是欧洲报复策略的一部分。

But but I think it's fair to say that does seem to be part of the European strategy in terms of retaliation.

通常的报复手段是瞄准波本威士忌，因为这会打击到米奇·麦康奈尔的家乡肯塔基州。

So so the typical thing you retaliate on is you go after bourbon because you hit, you know, Mitch McConnell's home state of Kentucky.

选择谷物作为目标则是为了打击上中西部，特别是印第安纳、内布拉斯加等红州。

You go after grains because you hit the Upper Midwest and especially red states like Indiana and Nebraska.

因此如果选择数字领域，这将把矛头指向特朗普的一批新盟友。

And so this is taking it to a new set of Trump allies if you go digital.

至于是否会奏效，那就是另一个问题了。

Whether it will work is a whole other question.

嗯

Mhmm.

我想指出这里还有另一个重大问题：他们真的能做到吗？

And I just wanna point out that there's another big question here, which is, can they even do this?

要知道，谷歌在欧洲并没有替代品

You know, it's not like Google has an alternative in Europe.

他们也没有现成的服务能轻易填补空缺

It's not like they have services that can just easily plop in Right.

来弥补这些措施可能留下的空白

And fill the void that is going to be left by some of these things.

因此存在一个真正的风险：如何设计回应措施，才不会以难以持续的方式伤害到自己的消费者群体

And so there's this real risk of how do you design a response that doesn't hurt your own consumer base in a way that makes it almost unsustainable to carry this out.

这是一种未经试验的工具，对他们来说实际运用将会极具挑战性

And so it's an untried tool and it's gonna be really challenging for them to actually use.

中国会采取什么报复措施？

What's gonna be the retaliation from China?