2026年国会控制权争夺战

我是黛博拉·卡门。

I'm Deborah Kamen.

我是《纽约时报》的一名调查记者。

I'm an investigative reporter at The New York Times.

我的工作是关注那些多年来一直相对隐形的房地产行业从业者。

What I do is I look at the people running the real estate industry who for so many years have been relatively invisible.

我越深入调查，就越发现房地产行业中有许多人行为不道德，而他们的不道德行为影响着每一个美国人。

And the more that I look into it, the more that I find there are people in the real estate industry operating unethically, and their unethical behavior affects every single American.

在《纽约时报》，我们总是深入挖掘，帮助读者更好地理解这个世界。

At The New York Times, we're always looking a little bit deeper to help readers better understand the world.

您可以在 nytimes.com/subscribe 订阅《纽约时报》。

You can subscribe to The New York Times at nytimes.com/ subscribe.

来自《纽约时报》，我是迈克尔·比尔巴罗。

From The New York Times, I'm Michael Bilbaro.

这是《每日新闻》。

This is The Daily.

随着2026年的到来，国会控制权的中期选举也随之展开，这场竞选将决定民主党能否发挥制衡特朗普总统巨大权力的作用，还是共和党能够继续掌控华盛顿的所有权力杠杆。

As 2026 gets underway, so does a midterm election year for control of Congress, a campaign that will determine whether Democrats can operate as a check against the extraordinary power of president Trump or whether Republicans can hold on to every lever of influence in Washington.

今天，我的同事安妮·卡尼和肖恩·戈德马彻将探讨两党面临的机遇与风险。

Today, my colleagues, Annie Carney and Shane Goldmacher, on the opportunities and perils for both parties.

今天是1月7日，星期三。

It's Wednesday, January 7.

安妮，2026年的选举，我们来了。

Annie, twenty twenty six elections, here we come.

我们来了。

Here we come.

或者更准确地说，我们已经在这里了。

Or I guess here we are.

这一集将为今年美国政治的走向提供一份路线图和入门指南。

This episode is going to be kind of a road map and a primer for this year ahead in American politics.

因为尽管现在许多人的目光都聚焦在委内瑞拉，但在你所报道的国会，焦点却在于一个现实：今年是选举年，11月将迎来一场至关重要的中期选举。

Because while a lot of eyes are on Venezuela right now, in congress, which you cover, the focus is on the reality that it is an election year, a very big midterm election year coming up in November.

十一月听起来似乎还很遥远，但正如你所知，在政治中，这其实并没有多少时间了。

And November sounds very far away, but as you know well, in politics, that really isn't very much time at all.

这次选举牵涉的利益非常巨大。

And there's just a ton at stake in this election.

所以我们想请你谈谈选举的共和党一方，以及国会中的共和党人现在是如何规划或甚至害怕即将到来的选举的？

So we are turning to you to talk about the Republican side of that election and how Republicans in Congress are now thinking about planning for or perhaps dreading this coming election?

我认为‘害怕’这个词在这里是准确的。

I think that dreading is the correct word here.

共和党人在去年年底时，对保住众议院控制权感到非常悲观。

Republicans ended last year feeling very pessimistic about their chance of holding on to control of the house.

这在很大程度上是因为他们的政党未能解决当前美国经济的弊病。

And that's in a really large part because their party has failed to fix what ails the American economy right now.

也就是高物价。

Namely high prices.

高物价，高水电费。

High prices, high utility bills.

美国人可以看看他们的收据，现在情况并不好。

Americans can look at their receipts, and they are not doing well right now.

没错。

Right.

失败的证据， literally 就是这些收据。

The receipts for the failure are literally the receipts.

正确。

Correct.

没有什么比这件事更能说明共和党人在今年选举中面临的严峻局面了：他们竟选择以医疗保健作为年初的议题，而医疗保健多年来一直是他们最大的政治弱点。

And nothing better illustrates the dire situation the Republicans are walking into this election year than the fact that Republicans set themselves up to start the year on an issue, health care, that has for years been their biggest weakness politically.

请解释一下。

And just explain that.

为什么共和党人要在2026年以医疗保健作为开局？

Why Republicans are gonna be kicking off 2026 on health care?

因为在2025年底的几周里，国会议员共和党人对自己在应对生活成本问题上的全面失败感到绝望，以至于有少数人背离了党派领导层，与民主党人联手，迫使就延长《平价医疗法案》补贴进行投票。

Because in the final weeks of 2025, congressional Republicans were so despondent about their overall failure to confront affordability that a handful of them actually break with their party leadership and join with Democrats to force a vote on extending subsidies to the Affordable Care Act.

所以这次投票是在迈克·约翰逊的反对下进行的

So this vote is coming to the floor against Mike Johnson's wishes

嗯。

Mhmm.

这突显了一个问题：选民普遍认为民主党在医疗保健问题上更强有力。

And highlighting an issue where voters, by and large, think Democrats are much stronger when it comes to health care.

对。

Right.

从政治角度来看，共和党人在去年12月底所做的事情意义重大，因为他们实际上投票支持了《平价医疗法案》，而这在许多国会议员共和党人眼中是头号公敌。

And just as a political matter, what the Republicans did in the final weeks of December was enormous because they basically voted to endorse, in a real sense, the Affordable Care Act, which is public enemy number one for many congressional Republicans.

这十年来一直是这样，而你却暗示他们将在未来几天进一步强化对《平价医疗法案》的认可。

It has been for a decade, and and you're suggesting that they're gonna reinforce that approval for the ACA in the coming days.

是的。

Yeah.

多年来，共和党人在如何应对《平价医疗法案》的问题上一直存在分歧。

Republicans have been divided about what to do about the ACA for years.

但这种压力让许多摇摆选区的温和派共和党人感到紧迫，他们觉得自己必须与民主党站在一起，争取延长这些补贴，否则将面临失去席位的风险。

But this is how much swing district moderate Republicans are feeling the heat, that they feel like they needed to join Democrats and to fight for these extensions or risk losing their seats.

既然我们谈到了这个话题，

And just because we're on

共和党人背离本党是否会帮助在接下来几天内通过这些《平价医疗法案》补贴的延期？

the subject, will the Republicans breaking with their party help pass the extension of these Affordable Care Act subsidies in the house in the next couple days?

这项法案可能在众议院通过，但看起来共和党人不会在参议院通过它。

It could pass in the house, but it doesn't seem that Republicans are gonna pass it in the senate.

总统也绝不会签署这项法案成为法律。

And the president would never sign this into law.

他不想奖励那些将ACA延期作为其整个政治战略核心的民主党人。

He would not want to reward Democrats who have made this ACA extension the central message of their entire political strategy.

没错。

Right.

因此，我们将在今年，接下来的几天里，看到共和党内部爆发一场大规模的公开争斗，这场争斗很可能会制造一场闹剧，进一步强化民主党的策略——即共和党人根本不懂负担能力问题，尤其是医疗保健的负担能力。

So we're gonna begin this year, in the next couple days, with Republicans having a big public battle among themselves, one that's gonna probably create a spectacle that reinforces the democratic strategy that Republicans don't get it on affordability, especially the affordability of health care.

这就是共和党人开启今年选举年的方式。

That's how Republicans are starting this election year.

没错。

Right.

我必须说，为特朗普工作的共和党民调专家托尼·福尔比佐去年夏天发布了一份备忘录，警告各级共和党人，如果他们不支持这些医保税收抵免，将是政治上的失职，并将给政党带来灾难。

I have to say that Tony Forbizio, Republican pollster who works for Trump, put out a memo last summer warning Republicans at all levels that if they did not get behind these ACA tax credits, it would be political malpractice and a disaster for the party.

现在一些共和党人会说，现在还为时过早。

Now some Republicans will say it's still early.

距离十一月还有很长的路要走。

There's a long way to go to November.

他们还有很多时间来改变话题，但这绝对不是他们希望的今年选举年的开局方式。

They have plenty of time to change the conversation, but this is most definitely not how they wanted to start off this election year.

好吧，把这场关于医疗保健的争论放在更大的背景下来看，共和党人目前似乎正怀着深深的忧虑进入中期选举，即使正如他们所说，他们

Well, put this fight over health care into the larger much larger context of dread that Republicans seem to be feeling right now heading into the midterms even if, as they say, they

理论上仍有充足的时间来重新站稳脚跟。

have plenty of time in theory to try to recover their footing.

所以，这是关于一个极度沮丧、士气低落的政党当前状况的更大故事中的最新一章。

So this is, you know, the latest chapter in a much bigger story about an incredibly frustrated, demoralized party right now.

今年一整年，白宫一直在推动在全国范围内进行选区重划的策略，从德克萨斯州开始。

All year, the White House has been driving this strategy of doing redistricting across the country, starting with Texas.

这一直被视为一种只有在担心现有选区地图无法赢得选举时才会采取的措施。

And this was always viewed as something that you do if you are worried about winning the regular maps as they are drawn now.

嗯。

Mhmm.

只有当你认为重划选区能带来政治优势时，你才会去这么做。

You would only bother to redistrict if you thought it would give you a political edge.

因此，白宫在全国多个他们认为能赢得几个席位的州推动了这一举措。

So the White House pushed this in states across the country where they thought they could gain a few seats.

没错。

Right.

通过直接将民主党及其选民从这些国会选区地图中剔除。

By literally writing Democrats and their voters out of these congressional maps.

对。

Right.

但正是在这里，长期以来让选民大失所望的民主党领导层展现出了真正的魄力并进行了反击。

But here is where a Democratic leadership that has widely disappointed voters for a long time really showed some backbone and pushed back.

纽约州民主党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯非常积极地支持对等反击红istricting。

Hakim Jeffries, Democrat of New York and minority leader, was very aggressive in supporting tit for tat on redistricting.

如果他们要搞德克萨斯州，那我们就搞加利福尼亚州。

If they're gonna do Texas, we're gonna do California.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这基本上引发了一场军备竞赛，最终结果几乎持平。

So it's basically set off an arms race that is adding up to pretty much a wash.

目前尚不清楚全国范围内的重新划分选区斗争是否给共和党带来了足以让他们有信心保住众议院的明显优势。

It's not clear that the redistricting battles across the country have given Republicans anywhere near the margin that they would need to feel confident about keeping the house.

对。

Right.

这意味着共和党人必须以传统方式努力获胜，依靠他们的政绩。

Which means Republicans have to try to win the old fashioned way, running on their record.

对。

Right.

而他们没什么可吹嘘的。

And they don't have a lot to run on.

嗯。

Mhmm.

他们现在在华盛顿完全掌控已有一年，但真正通过的法案只有一项，就是那项宏伟的法案。

They've had full control in Washington for a year now, and they've really only passed one bill, the big beautiful bill.

这总归是有点成就。

Which is something.

这确实算是一点成就，他们想突出减税政策。

It's something, and they wanna highlight the tax cuts.

但这项法案还包含了大幅削减医疗补助的条款，影响了他们的选民。

But that bill also included deep cuts to Medicaid that affect their voters.

对。

Right.

所以这是一个没有成效的国会。

So it was an unproductive congress.

他们基本上对白宫的任何要求都点头同意，或者完全被排除在白宫的决策过程之外，无论是关闭联邦机构，还是执行上周在委内瑞拉的军事行动，国会对此完全一无所知。

They've basically just said yes to everything that the White House wants or just been totally cut out of the White House's decision making process, whether it's shutting down federal agencies or carrying out last week's military operation in Venezuela, which congress was kept totally in the dark about.

他们放弃了权力，结果自己也变得痛苦不堪。

They've given up their power, and they've just become miserable in the process.

所以众议院的士气非常低落。

So the morale in the house is just terrible.

当玛乔丽·泰勒·格林宣布辞职并提前离开时，许多她的同事感到嫉妒——他们大概会这样告诉我。

And when when Marjorie Taylor Greene announced that she was resigning and leaving early, a lot of her colleagues kind of felt jealous, probably they would tell me.

听起来真不错。

Like, that sounds great.

当众议院共和党人听到这个消息时，很多人都是这么想的。

It was was how a lot of house Republicans felt when they heard that news.

而且有很多人也在考虑或决定效仿她离开吗？

And are many of them thinking about or deciding to follow her out the door?

她所做的，就是提前宣布将在任期结束前离职，这通常只有在健康出现问题或发生重大丑闻时才会发生。

So what she did is, you know, announce that she's leaving early before the end of her term, which really doesn't happen unless you have a health issue or a huge scandal.

我的意思是，选民选举你是为了让你完成整个任期。

I mean, it's you know, your voters elected you to serve out

你的任期。

your term.

对。

Right.

所以我认为不会有人再提前效仿她离开了。

So I don't think anyone else is gonna follow her out early.

但很多人选择不再参选连任。

But a lot of people are choosing not to run again.

今天，我宣布我不再竞选连任。

Today, I am announcing I'm not running for reelection.

今年最典型的例子之一就是唐·贝孔。

One of the biggest examples this year would be Don Bacon.

所以我感到很情绪化。

So I feel emotional.

这十年真的很棒。

Been a great ten years.

他是一位老派的共和党人，来自内布拉斯加州的温和派，宣布将退休。

He's kind of an old fashioned Republican, a moderate from Nebraska, and he announced that he's gonna retire.

这对共和党保住众议院的前景是巨大打击。

That's a huge blow to Republicans' chances of keeping the house.

为什么？

Why?

因为这个席位在下一次选举中很可能会落入民主党手中。

Because that seat will likely go to a Democrat in the next election.

对。

Right.

但离开国会的不仅仅是像唐·贝孔这样的温和派。

But it's not just moderates like Don Bacon who are leaving Congress.

我们还看到一些自称极端MAGA派的议员纷纷离职。

We've seen some lawmakers who call themselves ultra MAGA head for the exits.

在圣诞节前几天，伊莉丝·斯特凡尼克表示她将在任期结束后退休。

Elise Stefanik in the days before Christmas said she's gonna retire at the end of her term.

领导层成员公开声称议长是撒谎者、政治新手，说了伊莉丝·斯特凡尼克所讲的那些话，这简直是前所未有的。

Having a member of the leadership team come out and suggest that the speaker was a liar, that he was a political novice, that he was all sorts of things that Elise Stefanik said is just unheard of.

她对议长约翰逊领导众议院的方式极为不满，一直公开批评，并表示自己感到被他亏待。

She's been incredibly fed up with speaker Johnson's leadership of the house, has been criticizing publicly and saying she's felt mistreated by him.

我也不太清楚为什么伊莉丝不直接给我打电话。

I I don't exactly know why Elise won't just call me.

我昨天给她发了短信。

I texted her yesterday.

她很生气。

She's upset.

私下里，她对唐纳德·特朗普以及他对她的态度感到沮丧。

Privately, she's been frustrated with Donald Trump and his treatment of her.

还有南希·梅斯。

You have Nancy Mace.

来自南卡罗来纳州的共和党国会议员南希·梅斯在《纽约时报》上发表了一篇题为《国会的意义何在？》的评论文章。

Republican congresswoman Nancy Mace of South Carolina has an op ed in The New York Times entitled What's the Point of Congress?

她也一直公开批评迈克·约翰逊。

Who has also been publicly critical of Mike Johnson.

她在文章中写道：‘南希·佩洛西作为众议院议长，比本世纪任何一位共和党议长都更有效率。’

She writes in part, quote, Nancy Pelosi was a more effective house speaker than any Republican this century.

她不会寻求连任，而是打算竞选南卡罗来纳州州长。

She's not gonna run for reelection, trying to run for governor of South Carolina instead.

这两位女性恰恰反映出，许多共和党人——甚至那些自诩为特朗普追随者的人——如今有多么士气低落。

So those two women really just speak to how demoralized a lot of Republicans, even those who have fashioned themselves after Trump, are feeling right now.

因此，众议院共和党人既无法解决可负担性问题。

So with House Republicans being both unable to conquer the affordability issue Mhmm.

而且他们在众议院的工作变得痛苦不堪，有些人选择退休，使得这些席位对民主党人来说非常容易争取，另一些人像南希·梅斯、伊莉丝·斯特凡尼克也选择退休。

And becoming miserable in their jobs in the house, some of them retiring and making the seats very gettable for Democrats, others like Nancy Mace, Elise Stefanik, retiring.

我假设这些席位将由其他共和党人填补。

And I assume the seats will just be filled by other Republicans.

共和党人在中期选举中的策略是什么？

What is the strategy for the Republicans in the midterms?

他们说他们的主张会是什么？如果他们并不喜欢目前贴在他们身上的那种主张？

What what are they saying their message is going to be if they don't really like the message that's attached to them at the moment?

听好了。

Look.

很多人认为，可负担性将成为他们的策略，即使总统称其为骗局，他们仍有时间向选民有力地阐述这一点。

A lot of them think that affordability will be the strategy, and they have time to talk about it in a convincing way to their constituents even if the president is calling it a hoax.

我们看看这是否能为他们奏效。

We'll see if that's gonna work for them.

然后，对于竞争激烈的选区的共和党人来说，策略师将会说：我敢于对抗我的政党。

Then, you know, I think for Republicans in competitive districts, the strategist is going to be saying, I stood up to my party.

我推动了这项关于《平价医疗法案》补贴延期的投票。

I forced this vote on affordable care act subsidies extension.

这将是他们所要传达的论点。

That will be their case they're making.

对。

Right.

这很难说服人，因为最终，这些补贴是不会通过的。

Which will be a hard sell because at the end of the day, the subsidies will not pass.

所以，我的意思是，他们所做的一切不过是空谈，如果选民的生活在你们任职期间依然没有改善，这种空谈能走多远呢？

So, I mean, what they did amounts to a little more than messaging, which can only take you really so far if the lives of your constituents are still worse off while you were in office.

然后，他们只能寄希望于民主党推出像佐赫拉·马曼尼这样极左、进步且社会主义倾向的候选人，让选民普遍认为这才是替代选择。

And then they're left with this hope that Democrats run people like Zohra Mamdani, who are far left and progressive and socialist and convince their voters that that's the alternative broadly speaking.

并把民主党贴上激进分子的标签，即使在某些选区，他们根本不是这样的。

And brand Democrats as radicals even when in some districts, you know, they're absolutely not.

那么，你认为未来十个月左右，国会共和党人，尤其是众议院共和党人的最佳前景会是什么？

So what do you think the best case scenario for congressional Republicans, especially in the house, will be over the next ten months or so?

我的意思不是要你预测十一月选举的具体数字结果。

I mean, I'm not asking you to guess numerically what's gonna happen in November's election.

但在共和党人看来，这种情况会怎样发展得非常好，又会怎样变得非常糟糕？

But in the Republicans' minds, how does this go really well, and how does it go real, real bad?

对。

Right.

我的意思是，最好的情况是他们打破常规，保住众议院。

I mean, I'd say that the best case is that they buck conventionalism and hold the house.

他们可能会失去几个参议院席位，但仍然保住参议院。

They lose a few senate seats, but hold the senate.

而我认为更多共和党人真正担心的最坏情况是，共和党基层议员与议长迈克·约翰逊之间的严重分歧，可能导致他们在中期选举前将自己人赶下台。

And I guess the worst case scenario, which I think is the one that more Republicans are really entertaining, is this bad blood between Republican ranking file members and speaker Mike Johnson could lead to, you know, ousting their own speaker before the midterms.

这是一种可能性。

That's a possibility.

这可能导致众议院的失利幅度远超任何人预期。

Could mean a loss of the house by a wider margin than anyone even thinks.

而在特朗普总统任期的最后几年，民主党掌控所有关键委员会，这意味着监督委员会和司法委员会可能展开真正的调查，并要求那些不向国会提供信息的机构提供资料，他们将拥有传唤权。

And then Democrats controlling all of the key committees in the final years of Trump's presidency, which would mean the oversight committee and the judiciary committee potentially doing real investigations and demanding information from all of these agencies that are not sharing information with congress, they would have subpoena power.

因此，民主党重新掌控众议院将彻底改变华盛顿的政治格局。

So it would change the dynamic in Washington dramatically for Democrats to regain control of the house.

对。

Right.

这就是共和党人担忧的原因。

Thus, the Republican dread.

正确。

Correct.

好了，安妮，谢谢你的分享。

Well, Annie, thank you for that.

我很感激。

I appreciate it.

谢谢你邀请我。

Thank you for having me.

新年快乐。

Happy New Year.

干杯。

Cheers.

广告后，谢恩·戈德马赫谈民主党。

After the break, Shane Goldmacher on The Democrats.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

每年这个时候，我们很多人都会思考如何回馈社区。

It's that time of year when many of us think about how we can give back to our community.

这是尼克·克里斯托夫。

This is Nick Kristoff.

我是《纽约时报》的专栏作家，我很自豪，《纽约时报》一百多年来一直开展年度募捐活动，为慈善组织筹款。

I'm an opinion columnist for The New York Times, and I'm proud that for more than one hundred years, The Times has conducted an annual appeal to raise money for charitable organizations.

我们的理念是与读者合作，通过高效运作的非营利组织，帮助创造机会、克服困难。

The idea is to work with readers to help create opportunity and overcome hardship through highly effective nonprofits.

《纽约时报》的新闻报道核心在于核实真相，在此情况下，就是审查并筛选出最优秀的组织，以便我们共同产生影响。

Times journalism is fundamentally about vetting the truth, and in this case, vetting organizations and selecting some of the best so that together we can have an impact.

如果没有读者的慷慨支持，这一切都不可能实现。

This wouldn't be possible without the generosity of our audience.

因此，我希望您在这个节日季考虑向《纽约时报》社区基金捐款。

So I hope you'll consider donating to The New York Times Communities Fund this holiday season.

《纽约时报》承担所有行政费用，因此您捐出的每一分钱都将直接用于帮助有需要的人。

The Times covers all administrative costs, so every penny you give goes directly to those in need.

如需了解更多信息，请访问 nytimes.com/nytfund。

To learn more, go to nytimes.com/nytfund.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢恩。

Shane.

迈克尔。

Michael.

感谢您在我们今天的对话中代表民主党的立场。

Thank you for representing the Democratic side of the ledger in our conversation here.

如果正如安妮·卡尼刚刚告诉我们的那样，共和党人对自己的前景感到极度担忧，尤其是在今年即将举行的中期选举中对众议院的前景，这难道不几乎可以肯定意味着民主党人正充满着与担忧相反的情绪吗？

If, as Annie Carney just told us, Republicans are filled with dread about their prospects, especially in the house in this year's upcoming midterm elections, doesn't that almost certainly mean that Democrats are filled with whatever the opposite of dread is?

那会是什么情绪呢？

And what would that be?

我认为民主党人普遍怀有一种焦虑的乐观情绪。

I would say that Democrats are broadly filled with an anxious optimism.

而乐观的理由非常明确。

And the reasons to be optimistic are pretty clear.

他们看到了特别选举中的出色表现、十一月的胜利，以及特朗普在选民最关心的议题——物价和经济——上的支持率持续下滑。

They see overperformances in special elections, victories in November, and Trump's slipping approval ratings on the most important issues to voters, prices, and the economy.

他们认为，这正是民主党人在唐纳德·特朗普第一年任期结束时所期待的政治环境。

And they say, this is the kind of political environment that the Democrats were hoping for at the end of Donald Trump's first year.

在这种环境中，他似乎在经济问题上公然手忙脚乱，并嘲笑可负担性的概念。

One where he seems to be openly fumbling on the economy and mocking the idea of affordability.

不仅仅是有时在嘲讽，他还表现出自己更关注一些与个人相关的事情，比如

Not just mocking it at times, but showing that he is focused on other things that are personal to himself, whether it is

特朗普肯尼迪中心。

Trump Kennedy Center.

是的。

Yeah.

特朗普在肯尼迪中心镀金，装修椭圆形办公室，而在政府停摆期间却建造了一个舞厅。

Trump Kennedy Center gilding parts of the Oval Office, building a ballroom while the government was shut down.

他在2025年的重点是这些，而2026年初则转向了外交事务，关注委内瑞拉。

That was his focus at the 2025, and 2026 began with a focus on foreign affairs, on Venezuela.

对。

Right.

通过逮捕尼古拉斯·马杜罗，这与他竞选时提出的‘美国优先’口号并不相符。

With the arrest of Nicolas Maduro, and it doesn't exactly fit with the America First branding that he ran on.

这对大多数美国人来说根本不是厨房餐桌上的议题。

This is hardly a kitchen table issue for most Americans.

我认为所有这些因素共同塑造了一种形象：这位总统关注的是自己和他在历史上的声誉，而非那些投票支持他成为总统的美国人的个人财务状况。

And I think all of these things have fed into this image of a president who is focused on himself, on his reputation in history, rather than the personal finances of the Americans who voted to make him president.

因此，我认为民主党人开始意识到，这位总统分心、自我放纵的形象正在产生影响，选民近期和历史上对共和党解决经济问题的信任正在减弱。

And so I think that Democrats are starting to think that that image of a president who is distracted, who is self indulgent, that that is starting to break through, and the trust that voters have had recently and historically in the Republican Party to fix the economy is waning.

而且，从历史来看，执政党在中期选举中总是会失去席位。

And plus, just historically, the party in power loses seats in the midterms.

没错。

Right.

而共和党所拥有的席位优势如此微小，即使在非大选年，也足以让民主党赢得多数席位。

And the margins Republicans have are so small and so slim that even like a non wave year should give Democrats a majority.

没错。

Right.

当你提到‘优势’时，你的意思显然是，共和党在众议院多数席位中实际上只有寥寥数席。

And when you say margins, what you simply mean is, of course, that there are literally only a handful of Republicans in the Republican House majority.

因此，即使他们仅失去三、四或五个席位，民主党就会立即控制美国众议院。

So even if they lose, what, three, four, five seats, Democrats suddenly control the United States House of Representatives.

因此，当前的环境为民主党带来了乐观的理由。

And so the environment is the reason for optimism right now for Democrats.

但焦虑来自于其他一些因素，也就是：这些席位究竟是哪些？

But the anxiousness comes from some of the other factors, which is, well, what are those seats?

选区地图实际上是什么样子？

And what does the map actually look like?

历史上，众议院中有大量席位是竞争激烈的。

And historically, there have been a ton of seats that have been up for grabs in the House of Representatives.

但这个数字正在不断减少。

And that number is shrinking and shrinking.

这非常重要，因为这意味着即使出现所谓的‘蓝色浪潮’，比如民主党在2024年的基础上多得7%到8%的选票。

And it's really important because it means even if there is a quote unquote blue wave, let's say Democrats overperform by seven or eight percentage points from what they did in 2024.

但这样的优势所能赢得的共和党席位，已不如十年前那么多了。

Well, that doesn't capture as many Republican seats as it might have a decade ago.

嗯。

Mhmm.

如果你把所有摇摆席位和倾向民主党的席位都算给民主党的话。

And if you take all the seats that are in the toss-up category and the leaning Democratic seats, you give them all to the Democrats.

对吧？

Right?

所有最具竞争力的席位加起来，民主党也只能获得二十出头的席位，而众议院多数需要218个席位。

All the most competitive seats, they end up in, like, the low two twenties, and you need 218 seats in the house for a majority.

因此，即使包揽所有摇摆席位，也仅仅能让民主党勉强过线。

So even sweeping these toss-up seats just gets the Democrats over the line.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这种现实——即使出现蓝色浪潮，民主党也难以赢得更多席位——是不是正是我们多年来和你讨论的延续：由于严重的党派划分选区，根本已经没有中间选区了？

And is this reality that even a blue wave won't get Democrats that many seats, is that just the extension of the conversation we've been having with you for years, the fact that there's been so much partisan gerrymandering, there just really aren't any purple seats left?

这部分是由于党派划分选区。

It's partly partisan gerrymandering.

这也是美国更广泛的一种趋势，即选民的自我分化。

It's also sort of a broader trend in America, which is self sorting by voters.

蓝色区域变得更蓝，红色区域变得更红。

The blue areas are getting bluer, and the red areas are getting redder.

因此，即使你并没有打算进行选区划分，选民们也已经自我筛选到了右翼阵营。

And so even if you're not intending to gerrymander people, they've self selected into Right.

我们讨论过这个。

We talked about this.

这就是自我选区划分。

This the self gerrymander.

是的。

Yeah.

进入他们自己的社区。

Into their own communities.

正是这种组合导致了地图的收缩，使民主党人犯错的空间更小。

And so it's that combination that's led to a shrunken map that leaves less margin for error for Democrats.

除了这种让任何人都很难赢得大量席位的地图之外，还有什么其他因素会让民主党人对2026年感到焦虑？

What else beyond a map that makes it kinda hard for anybody to really pick up all that many seats will make Democrats anxious about twenty twenty six?

候选人。

The candidates.

对吧？

Right?

民主党明年将面临异常多的激烈初选。

The Democratic Party has an unusually large number of intense primaries that they're facing next year.

因为当你失去权力时，你会进行一些反思。

Because when you're tossed from power, you have some introspection.

你们做错了什么？

What did you do?

你们哪里出了问题？

Where did you go wrong?

你们未来想让谁来代表你们？

And who do you want to represent you in the future?

嗯。

Mhmm.

在全国范围内，这些初选正在检验民主党内部存在的各种分歧。

And across the map, there are these primaries that are testing some of the disagreements that the Democratic Party has.

因此，这些选举中脱颖而出的人也将成为一个相当重要的因素。

And so who emerges in those races is also gonna be a pretty important factor.

我们说过，民主党有很大机会赢得众议院。

And we said the Democrats have a pretty good chance to take the house.

但他们在同一时间赢得参议院非常困难。

It's really hard for them to take the senate at the same time.

为什么？

Why?

共和党在参议院拥有53个席位，而民主党在2026年赢得参议院的机会寥寥无几。

Republicans have 53 seats in the senate, and there just aren't very many opportunities for the Democrats to win the senate in 2026.

苏珊·柯林斯是唯一一位在唐纳德·特朗普2024年输掉的州中担任共和党参议员的人。

There's Susan Collins, who's the only Republican senator in its state that Donald Trump lost in 2024.

你还有北卡罗来纳州。

You've got North Carolina.

这是一个空缺席位。

It's an open seat.

你有来自俄亥俄州的前民主党参议员谢罗德·布朗再次参选。

You've got Sherrod Brown, the former Democratic senator from Ohio, running again.

但即使他们赢得了这三个州中的所有席位，民主党仍然未能重新获得多数地位。

But, like, even if they won all three of those states, Democrats are still not back in the majority.

那只能让他们回到50席。

That would only get them back to 50.

对。

Right.

而当总统是共和党人时，50席是不够的，因为。

And 50 is not enough when the president is Republican because J.

D。

D.

万斯会投出关键一票支持共和党。

Vance would break the tie in favor of Republicans.

顺便说一下，民主党自己也有岌岌可危的席位要争夺。

And Democrats have, by the way, their own vulnerable seats up too.

对吧？

Right?

他们必须赢得所有这些席位，同时保住自己的席位。

They have to win all those and hold their own seats.

在众议院和参议院的竞选中，人们真的担心该党会提名一些脱离主流、背负不良包袱的人，最终导致他们失去本可赢下的选区。

And there's real fear in house races and in senate races that the party will end up nominating people who are either outside the mainstream, who have bad baggage, and end up costing them potentially winnable races.

我们来谈谈一些初选吧。

Let's talk about some of these primaries.

你所暗示的是，两大政党长期以来一直在面临的争论：对于一个政党来说，是让候选人通过初选来明确他们想成为哪种共和党人或哪种民主党人更好，还是这种过程只是分散精力、耗费成本，并损害候选人在大选中的表现？

And what you're hinting at is a fight that both parties have been having for such a long time, which is is it healthier for a party to have primaries where candidates sort out which kind of Republican, which kind of Democrat they want to be in the general election, or is it just distracting and costly, and does it damage the candidate for the general election?

听起来民主党已经为自己做出了决定。

It sounds like Democrats have kinda made that decision for themselves.

你说有很多初选。

You're saying there are a lot of primaries.

以缅因州为例，这些初选中的主要冲突点是什么？

What are the main lines of conflict in these primaries in a place, for example, like Maine?

民主党内部在多个议题上存在分歧。

There's a number of lanes that the Democratic Party has disagreements over.

首先是意识形态问题。

The first is ideological.

你是进步派吗？

Are you a progressive?

你是温和派吗？

Are you a moderate?

其次是代际之争。

The second is a generational fight.

你是元老派吗？

Are you from the old guard?

你是新生代或下一代吗？

Are you from the new guard or the next generation?

其中一个体现这种冲突的地方就是缅因州。

And one of the places that that is playing out is in Maine.

你知道，我父亲是第七代缅因人，他为那些无法为自己发声的人挺身而出。

You know, my father was a seventh generation Mainer who stood up for people who couldn't stand up for themselves.

你有一位两届民主党州长，珍妮特·米尔斯，她被视为温和派，完美体现了传统顶尖候选人的形象。

You've got the two term Democratic governor who's seen as a moderate, Janet Mills, sort of the perfect vision of what a traditional top recruit is.

特朗普剥夺了数百万美国人的医疗保障，并推高了从食品杂货到住房，再到卡车和汽车的所有成本。

Trump rips away health care from millions of Americans and drives up costs on everything from groceries to housing to trucks and cars.

她是一位屡战屡胜的赢家。

She's a proven winner.

她正是那种你希望在这样的地方参选的人。

She's the kind of person you would exactly want to run-in that kind of place.

这次选举将是一个简单的选择。

This election will be a simple choice.

缅因州是选择屈服还是挺身而出？

Is Maine going to bow down or stand up?

我知道我的答案。

I know my answer.

然而，她正面临来自一位名叫格雷厄姆·普拉特纳的男子的强劲初选挑战，此人获得了大量关注。

And yet, she's facing a pretty stiff primary challenge from a guy named Graham Plattner who's gotten a lot of attention.

当我告诉周围的人我正在竞选参议员时，有时他们的第一反应是：‘什么？’

When I tell people around here that I'm running for senate, sometimes the initial reaction is what the fuck?

但是但是

But but

一名牡蛎养殖户，一名退伍军人

An oyster farmer, a veteran

我曾在海军陆战队和陆军完成过四次步兵部署。

I did four infantry tours in the Marine Corps and the Army.

我不怕指出敌人，而敌人就是寡头集团。

I'm not afraid to name an enemy, and the enemy is the oligarchy.

但他也因纹身上的纳粹符号以及过去在Reddit上发布的大量帖子而引发诸多争议。

But also has gotten in a lot of controversy over a tattoo that he tattooed over that had Nazi symbolism, over a bunch of Reddit posts that he'd made in the past.

党内有很多人说，那又怎样？

And there's a lot in the party who say, so what?

他直率坦诚。

He's unvarnished.

他真实。

He's real.

他看起来正是我们所认定的民主党在2024年面临的所有问题的解决方案。

He looks like he solves all the problems that we've identified that the Democratic Party had in 2024.

我真心相信，我们可以建立一个代表劳动人民的体系。

I truly do believe that we can build a system that is going to represent working people.

最常见的回应是：谢天谢地，终于有人要这么做。

The number one response has been, well, thank God somebody's gonna do it.

猜猜谁为他举办了最早的一场大型集会？

And guess who held one of the first big rallies for him?

伯尼·桑德斯，他正在参与多场参议员初选。

Bernie Sanders, who's playing in a number of these senate primaries.

因此，这些州中谁脱颖而出，成为两党都非常关注和担忧的问题。

And so who emerges in these states is a real, real focus and concern for both sides of the party.

对吧？

Right?

有人指出珍妮特·米尔斯，说：好吧。

There are people who point at Janet Mills and say, okay.

当然。

Sure.

她看起来是个绝佳的候选人，但你知道吗？

She looks like a great recruit, but guess what?

她将成为美国历史上最年长的新人参议员。

She would be the oldest freshman senator in American history.

所以在乔·拜登之后，你还想回到那个年纪大的人选吗？

So right after Joe Biden, do you wanna go back to that?

还是你想冒险选择一个非常年轻、可能极具鼓舞力的小伙子？但他曾说过一些容易被共和党攻击广告截取的话，自己还用一些词汇将自己描述为激进派，而共和党人恰恰喜欢使用这类术语，尤其是当候选人自己用这些词来描述时。

Or do you wanna take a risk at this really young, potentially inspiring guy, but who has said things that are easily clippable in Republican attack ads, self describing themselves in ways that cast him as a radical and Republicans just love to use that kind of term, especially when candidates have used it in their own words.

对。

Right.

这正是安妮所描述的共和党人的幻想：他们可以把2026年民主党全部候选人塑造成极左、脱离主流的曼达尼、普拉特纳等等。

This is what Annie described as the kind of fantasy of Republicans that they can turn the entire 2026 Democratic slate of candidates into far left, out of the mainstream, Mamdani, Plattner, on and on.

是的。

Yes.

没错。

Exactly.

但我们根本不知道，这些民主党初选挑战者最终是否真的能赢得初选并胜出大选。

But we have no idea whether the reality is that these Democratic primary challengers might end up winning the primary and winning the general election.

我会认为，民主党内部存在两种战略上的派系。

I would think about it as there are two competing wings strategically in the Democratic Party.

第一派完全关注2026年谁在纸面上最具胜选能力，因为夺回权力刻不容缓，

Wing one wants to focus entirely on who on paper is the most electable candidate in 2026 because it is so urgent to take back power and

以制衡特朗普。

have a check against Trump.

对。

Right.

并且要制约特朗普，我们就这么做。

And have a check on Trump that let's do that.

无论每个州谁看起来最有可能获胜，就支持谁，暂时搁置关于民粹派、进步派与制度派的争论。

Whoever in each state looks like they are likely is to win, do that, and let's hold off on this conversation of populist versus progressive versus institutionalist.

我们别在2026年打这场仗。

Let's not have that fight in 2026.

提醒一下，2024年不打这场仗，问题很大。

Reminder, not having that fight in 2024, pretty problematic.

结果导致了特朗普上台。

Ended up with Trump.

对吧？

Right?

所以他们说，这场争论会在2028年的总统初选中爆发。

And and so they say that fight's gonna happen in the presidential primary in 2028.

现在，我们不希望发生这场斗争。

Right now, we don't want that fight.

还有一整个派别认为，2026年的初选不过是2028年主菜前的开胃菜。

And there's a whole wing that says, actually, the primaries in 2026 are the appetizer to a main course in 2028.

就打这场仗吧。

That Have this fight.

这些民粹主义者、这些左翼候选人，我们需要在中期选举中证明我们能够获胜，才能向更广泛的民主党选民证明，左翼在2028年也能赢。

These populist, these lefty candidates, we need to prove that we can win in the midterms in order to have a chance to sell the broader Democratic electorate that the left can win in 2028.

因此，所有这些参议院初选都变得如此有趣、如此重要，成为检验民主党在中期选举之后走向的真实试金石。

And so that's why all of these primaries for the senate have become so interesting and so important and real proxy tests for the direction of the Democratic Party beyond the midterms.

对。

Right.

好的。

Okay.

有了以上所有极具价值的背景信息，正好印证了‘焦虑的乐观’这个说法，我想知道你能否为我们描述一下民主党在本次中期选举中，众议院和参议院的最佳情况和最差情况。

So with all of this extremely useful context that justifies the term anxious optimism, I wonder if you can give us the best case scenario for Democrats in these midterm elections, House and Senate, and then the worst case scenario for them.

我的意思是，我们能从这件事中得到多少乐趣？

I mean, how much fun can we have with this?

这完全取决于你，戈德巴彻先生。

That's entirely up to you, mister Goldbacher.

我的意思是，民主党最好的情况是，唐纳德·特朗普继续翻新浴室，专注于选民不关心的事情，同时击败苏珊·柯林斯，并涌现出一大批新候选人。

I mean, I think the best case scenario for Democrats is that Donald Trump continues remodeling bathrooms and focusing on things that voters don't care about, that they beat Susan Collins, that they have a wave of these new recruits.

他们在众议院赢得数十个席位。

They win dozens of seats in the house.

对。

Right.

他们在明年秋天完全掌控国会。

And they take power entirely in the congress next fall.

这就是最好的情况。

That's the best case.

这是最好的政治前景。

That's the best case scenario, or politically.