民主党停摆协议的混乱政治

我是《Serial》的主持人Sarah Koenig。

This is Sarah Koenig, host of Serial.

我想向大家介绍我们的新节目。

I wanna tell you about our new show.

这档节目名为《预防者》，由Diane Neri主持。

It's called The Preventionist, and it's hosted by Diane Neri.

几年前，Diane收到关于宾夕法尼亚州东部发生怪事的线报。

A couple years ago, Diane got a tip about something strange happening in Eastern Pennsylvania.

有父母声称他们带孩子去医院就诊，结果被迫独自离开。

Parents were claiming they'd walked into a hospital to get medical care for their children and then were forced to leave without them.

为什么这些父母会突然失去孩子的监护权？

Why were these parents suddenly losing custody of their kids?

来自《纽约时报》Serial制作团队的《预防者》。

From Serial Productions in The New York Times, it's The Preventionist.

你可以在任何播客平台收听。

Listen wherever you get your podcasts.

我是《纽约时报》的Michael Bilbaro。

From New York Times, I'm Michael Bilbaro.

这里是《每日新闻》。

This is The Daily.

今天要讲述的是：一小群参议院民主党人如何与同僚决裂，与共和党达成协议结束政府停摆，从而引发党内最新内战。

Today, the story of how a small group of senate Democrats broke from their colleagues, struck a deal with Republicans to end the government shutdown, and touched off the latest civil war inside their party.

我与国会记者Katie Edmonson和国家政治记者Shane Goldmacher进行了对话。

I spoke with my colleagues, congressional reporter Katie Edmonson and national political correspondent Shane Goldmacher.

今天是11月11日，星期二。

It's Tuesday, November 11.

Katie，欢迎回来。

Katie, welcome back.

谢谢你，迈克尔。

Thank you, Michael.

我只是想解释一下，我们在周一下午与你交谈，经过几天令人头晕目眩的新闻后，这些新闻可能在我们与你交谈后继续变化。

I just wanna explain that we're talking to you on Monday afternoon after a head spinning few days of news that could keep changing after we talk to you.

过去几天之所以令人头晕目眩，是因为从外部看，民主党在上周二选举后似乎势头正盛，那次选举似乎认可了他们通过保持联邦政府关门来迫使共和党和特朗普总统应对高昂医疗成本的策略。

And the reason the past few days have been head spinning is that from the outside, it looked like Democrats were riding really high after last Tuesday's election, which seemed to ratify their strategy of keeping the federal government shut down as a way of forcing Republicans and president Trump to reckon with these sky high health care costs.

事实上，这一策略似乎非常有效，以至于在那次选举后，特朗普宣称关门被归咎于共和党人，并正在帮助民主党。

In fact, it seemed to be working so well that in the aftermath of that election, Trump declared that the shutdown was being blamed on Republicans and was helping Democrats.

他明确表达了这一观点。

He articulated that idea.

然后民主党人将这一看似成功的策略完全抛之脑后。

And then Democrats tossed this entire seemingly winning strategy out of the window.

我没有预料到这一点。

I didn't see that coming.

我认为这让很多人感到猝不及防，迈克尔，因为正如你所说，我记得周三站在民主党闭门会议外，他们出来时对选民在新泽西、纽约和弗吉尼亚的所作所为感到兴奋，这些选民以压倒性多数表明他们支持民主党的议程，该议程专注于降低成本。

Well, I think it gave a lot of people a real sense of whiplash, Michael, because as you said, I remember standing outside of Democrats' closed door meeting on Wednesday, and they came out sounding thrilled by what voters had just done in New Jersey, New York, Virginia, which is to show overwhelmingly that they sided with the Democratic agenda here, which was focused on lowering costs Right.

具体来说。

Specifically.

因此我们听到许多民主党人，特别是进步派民主党人说，选民刚刚证明了我们的策略是正确的，他们告诉我们希望我们继续战斗。

And so we heard from a lot of Democrats, particularly progressive Democrats, that look, voters have just vindicated what our strategy is, and they're telling us they want us to keep up the fight.

但我认为一直在酝酿的是，迈克尔，有一小群中间派民主党人对关门带来的所有痛点感到非常不安，他们正在寻找某种出路。

But I think what was always brewing under the surface, Michael, was that there was this small clutch of centrist Democrats who have grown really uncomfortable with all of the pain points that have emerged of the shutdown, who are looking for some sort of off ramp.

没错。

Right.

一群不相信关门是民主党成功顶峰的民主党人。

A clutch of Democrats who did not believe that the shutdown was the height of Democratic success.

那么告诉我们这些参议员是谁，以及他们开始做什么。

So tell us who these senators are and what they started to do.

嗯，这些参议员中有许多来自偏紫色或偏红的州。

Well, a lot of these senators hail from kind of purple or reddish states.

其中很多人是以拥有某种两党合作的资历为荣的参议员，以跨党派合作为傲。

A lot of these are senators who really pride themselves on having some sort of bipartisan credentials to their name, pride themselves on working across the aisle.

我们说的是新罕布什尔州的参议员珍妮·沙欣和玛吉·哈桑。

And we're talking about the senators from New Hampshire, senator June Shaheen and Maggie Hassan.

我们说的是内华达州的参议员凯瑟琳·科尔特斯·马斯托和杰基·罗森。

We're talking about the senators from Nevada, Catherine Cortez Masto and Jackie Rosen.

缅因州的安格斯·金，他实际上是独立人士，但与民主党党团合作。

Angus King of Maine, he's actually an independent, but he caucuses with Democrats.

宾夕法尼亚州的约翰·费特曼，当然，最近经常与民主党意见相左的人。

John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, of course, someone who frequently finds himself breaking with Democrats these days.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我们说的是弗吉尼亚州的参议员蒂姆·凯恩。

We're talking about senator Tim Kaine of Virginia.

最后也很重要的是伊利诺伊州的参议员迪克·德宾，他实际上是民主党二号人物。

And finally, and importantly, there's senator Dick Durbin of Illinois, who is actually the number two Democrat.

他是党鞭，而且不会在任期结束时寻求连任。

He is the party's whip, and who will not be running for reelection at the end of his term.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我认为他们最终共同得出的结论之一是，他们的政党一直要求的主要条件——即让共和党人投票延长将于年底到期的《平价医疗法案》补贴——是不可能实现的。

And I think one of the conclusions that they all ended up coming to together is that the chief demand that their party had been asking for, which is for Republicans to vote to extend the Affordable Care Act subsidies that are set to expire at the end of the year, was not going to happen.

这不在考虑范围内。

It was not in the cards.

是什么让他们如此确信这一点？随着共和党人开始公开承认停摆对民主党有利，这意味着他们承认医疗保健问题对他们不利。

And what made them so sure of that with Republicans starting to openly acknowledge that the shutdown was going well for Democrats, that meant them acknowledging that the health care issue was not going well for them.

是什么让这些参议院民主党人最终愿意放弃最初导致政府关门的核心理由——医疗保健问题。

And what furthermore made these senate Democrats comfortable with the idea of giving up on the central rationale for shutting down the government in the first place, health care.

我认为他们多数人看到了墙上的警示，看到特朗普总统拒绝谈判，看到众议院议长迈克·约翰逊甚至拒绝承诺就该议题进行投票表决。

Well, I think most of them saw the writing on the wall, saw the refusal of president Trump to negotiate, saw the refusal of speaker Mike Johnson over in the house to even commit to holding a vote on the issue.

另一方面，他们也看到了政府关门以来给美国选民造成的种种痛苦。

And then on the other side of the coin, they saw all of the pain that has been inflicted on American voters ever since the shutdown began.

我想他们最终得出的结论是：是的，延长这些补贴政策极其重要。

And I think the conclusion that they came to was, yes, extending these subsidies is extremely important.

这场斗争值得继续。

It's a fight worth having.

但我们看不到结局，而现在代价正由众多工薪阶层承担。

However, we don't see an endgame here, and it is now coming at the expense of a lot of working people.

嗯。

Mhmm.

于是他们开始内部悄悄讨论，同时也与参议院温和派共和党人接触，试图寻找能否达成某种协议，让我们获得体面的退出方案，从而投票重启政府结束停摆。

And so they begin these quiet discussions amongst themselves, but also with centrist Republicans in the senate to try to see, is there some sort of deal we can broker here that can give us an acceptable off ramp so that we can vote to reopen the government and end the shutdown?

当医疗保健议题被排除后，这群温和派民主党参议员与共和党人展开了何种谈判？

And what kind of negotiation does this clutch of moderate senate Democrats enter into with Republicans knowing that health care is off the table?

这些谈判本质上围绕支出法案展开。

Well, these negotiations essentially center on spending bills.

对吧？

Right?

就是那些重启政府拨款的法案。

Funding bills to reopen the government.

但最终真正聚焦的是民主党推动的措施，旨在遏制特朗普政府在停摆期间采取的某些行动，并保护白宫在那段资金缺口期间试图武器化的部分项目。

But what they ultimately really become centered around are these measures that Democrats are pushing for in order to rein in some of the actions taken by the Trump administration during the shutdown, and also to protect some of the programs that the White House sought to weaponize during that funding lapse.

比如哪些？

Such as?

其中一些重要条款包括：要求所有在政府停摆期间被解雇或裁员的员工必须恢复原职。

Some of the big provisions here include a measure saying all of the workers who were fired or laid off during the shutdown have to be returned to their jobs.

迈克尔，你应该记得特朗普总统在停摆期间多次暗示可能不会给被迫休假的联邦员工补发工资。

Michael, you'll remember that president Trump has hinted repeatedly during the shutdown that maybe he would not give back pay to federal workers who were furloughed during the shutdown.

因此他们加入了一项条款，规定联邦政府必须补发员工在停摆期间错过的工资，我们正在通过这项法案为你们提供所需资金。

So they include a provision that says the federal government will repay federal workers for the paychecks that they missed, and we're providing you with the money to do it right here in this bill.

明白了。

Gotcha.

这部分有点技术性——他们采取措施保护这个名为政府问责办公室的独立机构。

And this gets kind of wonky, but they move to protect this independent agency called the Government Accountability Office.

这个政府机构本质上是监督白宫如何使用国会拨款资金的监察机构。

And this is a government agency that essentially is a watchdog for how the White House handles the funds that Congress appropriates.

该机构今年就七次举报白宫，指控其非法处理国会拨款资金。

This is an agency that has blown the whistle on the White House seven times alone this year, saying that the White House has illegally handled money that Congress appropriated.

这个机构实际上有权就资金扣留问题起诉白宫，即当白宫拒绝发放国会拨款时。

And this is an agency that actually has the power to sue the White House over impoundment or when the White House refuses to release funds that Congress has appropriated.

因此众议院共和党人曾试图大幅削减该机构预算，并剥夺其起诉白宫的权力。

And so House Republicans had pushed to essentially gut the budget of that agency and to also revoke its power to sue the White House.

在谈判中，参议员们表示：若想获得我们重开政府的投票支持，就必须确保该机构安全——即获得所需预算，并保留现有起诉白宫的所有权力。

And so in these negotiations, the senators say, if you want our vote to reopen the government, you need to make sure that this agency is safe, essentially, that it has the budget that it needs, and it retains all of the powers that it currently has in order to sue the White House.

真有意思。

Fascinating.

在医疗保健方面，参议员们虽无法获得投票保证，但得到了南达科他州参议员、多数党领袖约翰·图恩的承诺：将在12月就共和党是否延长《平价医疗法案》税收补贴举行赞成/反对投票。

And on health care, of course, the senators know that they cannot get a guarantee on a vote, but they do get this promise from senator John Thune of South Dakota, the majority leader, that he will hold a vote later in December, an up or down vote on whether or not Republicans will extend the ACA tax subsidies.

简而言之，这些民主党人达成的协议基本消除了停摆造成的诸多损害，并保住了对他们至关重要的政府问责办公室——作为制衡总统的机构。

So in short, these Democrats negotiate a deal that pretty much undoes a lot of the damage from the shutdown and preserves this government accountability office that matters to them as an institution that keeps the president in check.

最后且颇为重要的是，他们获得了看似铁定的承诺：参议院共和党人将就延长《平价医疗法案》补贴进行投票。虽然他们可能认为共和党不会通过，但这会让共和党留下反对记录。

And finally and it seems somewhat significantly, they get what they see as an ironclad promise that senate Republicans will vote on renewing Affordable Care Act subsidies, which perhaps they don't think Republicans will, but that would put Republicans on record as not doing it.

没错。

That's right.

他们想要的，迈克尔，正是这个。

What they want, Michael, is exactly that.

他们想让每一位共和党参议员都对此议题表明立场。

They want to put every single senate Republican on the record on this issue.

于是周日晚上，他们已争取到的具体条款开始逐渐流出。

And so all of the details of exactly what they had secured started trickling out on Sunday evening.

我当时正坐在国会大厦里，你瞧，参议院拨款委员会开始公布包含民主党争取到的这些政策胜利具体细节的法律文本。

I was sitting up at the Capitol, and lo and behold, the Senate Appropriations Committee starts putting out legislative text that actually contains the details of these policy wins the Democrats had secured.

所以我快速翻阅这些法案，试图弄清具体内容，越读越明显感觉这里确实存在一项协议。

And so I'm kind of tearing through these bills, right, trying to read exactly what's in them, and it becomes very clear the more that you read that it seems like there's really a deal here.

我...我想我们只是...

I I think we just have

需要解释一下，凯蒂，因为我们多数人认为国会是个自上而下的地方，决策都来自高层。

to explain this, Katie, because most of us imagine that congress is this very top down place where decisions come from upon high.

但你描述的是少数民主党参议员似乎有些脱离领导层，与共和党达成协议试图结束政府停摆，而民主党领导层并未真正参与。

But what you're describing is a handful of senate Democrats a little bit going seemingly rogue and reaching a deal to try to end the shutdown with Republicans, and the leadership of the senate Democrats is not really involved.

迈克尔，我很高兴你提到这点。

Well, I'm really glad that you brought this up, Michael.

我的意思是，这完全正确。

I mean, that is completely right.

通常来说，特别是过去几年，国会一直是个高度自上而下的机构。

Typically, and especially in the past couple of years, congress has been a very top down institution.

我们这里看到的实际上是对大约六年前、十年前更常见的那种立法方式的回归。

What we saw here really was a return to sort of a style of legislating that was more common maybe six years ago, ten years ago.

这些就是参议员们曾引以为豪的所谓'帮派'立法模式。

These were the so called gangs that senators really prided themselves on being a part of.

对吧？

Right?

这个想法就是我和我的民主党朋友们会与你和你的五位共和党朋友在一个闭门会议室里坐下来，我们自己来敲定这件事。

It was the idea that me and my Democratic friends are gonna sit down in a closed door room with you and your five Republican friends, and we're gonna hammer this out amongst ourselves.

嗯。

Mhmm.

而这正是我们在这里看到的。

And that's really what we saw here.

我认为这也是为什么他们突然宣布达成协议让很多人感到惊讶的原因之一。

And I think it's one of the reasons why, again, their sudden declaration that they had a deal really did surprise a lot of people.

明白了。

Got it.

迈克尔，参议院另一个令人惊讶的地方是，尽管它以行动迟缓著称，但当领导层想要推动时，它可以进展得非常迅速。

And, Michael, the other surprising thing about the senate is that even though it is known for being such a slow moving institution, it can really move quickly when its leaders want it to.

所以就在这些中间派民主党人宣布他们获得了妥协方案以重新开放政府的票数后不久，我们就看到这个妥协方案被提交到参议院进行投票表决。

And so it was really not long after these centrist Democrats declared that they had the votes for a compromise to reopen the government, that we saw that compromise be put to a vote on the senate floor.

我想正是在这个时刻，包括我在内的绝大多数人，在周日晚上才得到消息，刚好赶上新闻发布会——

And I think this was the moment that the vast majority of us, myself included, got clued in on Sunday night just in time for a news conference in which this small group of Democrats goes up

在

to the

麦克风前试图解释他们为何这样做，以及为什么在某种意义上绕过了其他民主党同僚。

microphone and tries to explain why they're doing what they're doing and why, in a sense, they have gone around the rest of their Democratic colleagues.

你能跟我们说说他们都说了什么吗？

Can you just talk to us about what they said?

今天，参议院投票决定开始重新开放政府。

Today, the senate voted to start reopening the government.

所以

So

就在投票结束后不久，这群民主党人在参议院会场外立即召开了新闻发布会。

shortly after casting their votes, this clutch of Democrats hold a news conference right off the senate floor.

我们迈出了重要一步，以保障数千万美国人的医疗健康为条件，换取持续到1月31日的资金支持。

We took a big step forward to protect the health care of tens of millions of Americans in exchange for funding through January 31.

他们讨论了延长这些医疗补贴的重要性。

And they talk about how important they believe extending these health care subsidies is.

随着政府重新运作，我们必须迅速行动兑现承诺，确保医保费用维持在可负担水平。

With the government reopened, we must move quickly to deliver on that promise and to keep health care premiums affordable.

他们主要谈及停摆期间民众正在承受的苦难。

Mostly they talk about the pain that people are experiencing in a shutdown.

我们目睹了北内华达州食品银行前大排长龙的景象。

We were seeing lines to our food banks in Northern Nevada.

这种排队场面自疫情以来都未曾出现过。

These were lines that I hadn't seen since the pandemic.

参议员们讲述着领取食品券救济的民众忍饥挨饿的真实案例。

You have senators talking about stories were SNAP recipients, right, who are going hungry.

我们有运输安全局的雇员。

We have TSA agents.

我们有航空管制人员。

We have airport controllers.

你们听说了那些数周未领薪水的联邦雇员。

You hear about the federal workers who have gone for weeks without a paycheck.

该协议确保了执法人员、航空管制员及其他联邦工作人员都能获得薪酬。

This agreement ensures that law enforcement, air traffic controllers, and other federal workers get paid.

随着发言接连进行，这些参议员们显然已无法继续承受政府停摆的后果。

And one by one, it just becomes very clear that for these senators, continuing on with the shutdown was simply not tenable.

这是谈判桌上唯一的可行方案。

This was the only deal on the table.

这是我们重启政府运作并立即展开谈判以延长《平价医疗法案》税收抵免的最佳机会，数千万美国民众依赖这些抵免来降低医疗成本。

It was our best chance to reopen the government and immediately begin negotiations to extend the ACA tax credits that tens of millions of Americans rely on to keep costs down.

谢谢大家。

Thank you all.

谢谢大家。

Thank you all.

谢谢各位。

Thanks, guys.

谢谢。

Thank you.

然而，从周日晚上参议院现场情况可以看出，绝大多数民主党同僚都不同意他们的立场。

Yet, as we could tell from what was happening on the floor of the senate on Sunday night, the vast majority of their Democratic colleagues disagree with them.

没错。

That's right.

至少他们的投票结果是如此。

At least that's how they voted.

仅有八名民主党人投票支持这项重启政府的协议。

There were exactly eight Democrats who voted for this deal to reopen the government.

迈克尔，这个数字恰好是推动协议通过所需的民主党关键票数。

And, Michael, that was the magic number of Democrats needed in order for this deal to advance.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这意味着其余所有民主党核心成员都投了反对票。

Which means that the entire rest of the Democratic caucus voted no.

他们不仅投了反对票，其中许多人还直言不讳地表达了对部分同僚这一决定的失望。

Not only did they vote no, a lot of them were pretty vocal in saying how frustrated they were by this decision made by some of their colleagues.

今晚参议院即将做出的决定，将使本已糟糕的局势雪上加霜。

Tonight, what this senate is about to do is make a horrific situation even worse.

你听到这种挫败感来自民主党党团的广泛成员。

And you heard this frustration coming from a wide swath of the Democratic caucus.

比如进步派参议员伯尼·桑德斯。

Progressives like senator Bernie Sanders.

如果这次投票通过，超过2000万美国人在《平价医疗法案》下的保费将至少翻倍。

If this vote succeeds, over 20,000,000 Americans are gonna see at least a doubling in their premiums in the Affordable Care Act.

但你同样听到类似的声音来自像阿丽莎·斯洛特金参议员这样的人，我认为她是密歇根州相当温和的民主党人。嗯。

But you also heard similar noises being made by people like senator Alyssa Slotkin, who I think of as being a pretty moderate Democrat from Michigan Mhmm.

她表示自己无法支持这项努力，因为谈判桌上没有真正的医疗保健协议，而这正是她为美国人民所争取的。

Who said that she simply couldn't lend her vote to this effort because there was no real health care deal on the table, and that's what she wanted for the American people.

民主党领袖。

The Democratic leader.

总统先生，美国正深陷共和党制造的医疗保健危机之中。

Mister president, America is in the midst of a Republican made health care crisis.

甚至纽约州的参议院民主党党团领袖查克·舒默

And even senator Chuck Schumer of New York, who is the leader of the senate Democratic caucus

我必须投反对票。

I must vote no.

表示他将反对由本党部分成员促成的这项协议。

Says that he is going to oppose this deal that was brokered by some of his own members.

他还说

And he says

这场医疗保健危机如此严重。

This health care crisis is so severe.

危机如此严重、如此紧迫、对家乡的家庭破坏性如此之大，以至于我无法真心实意地支持

Crisis is so severe, so urgent, so devastating for families back home that I cannot in good faith support

一项未能解决医疗保健危机的持续决议案。

CR that fails to address the health care crisis.

迈克尔，就在这些中间派民主党人宣布准备投票重开政府仅仅几分钟后，国会山的民主党人就收到了全国各地选民的反应。

Now, Michael, it was really only minutes after these centrist Democrats made their declaration that they were ready to vote to reopen the government, that Democrats on Capitol Hill were already hearing from their voters all across the country.

实际上，当我站在那场闭门会议外时，我看到一位资深民主党助理正在刷手机，他的表情很古怪。

Actually, as I was standing outside of that closed door meeting, I looked over at a senior Democratic aide who was scrolling on his phone, and his face was he just had a funny look on his face.

他脸色几乎有点发白。

He was almost a little ashen.

我问，发生什么事了？

And I said, oh, what's going on?

他说，我只是在看社交媒体上对此事的反应。

And he said, oh, I'm just looking at the reactions to this on social media.

他所看到的正是我们所有人都目睹的情况。

And what he was seeing is what I think we've all seen.

民主党从这四十多天的政府停摆中得到了什么？

What if anything did Democrats get out of a forty plus days of a shutdown?

一无所获。

Nothing.

他们什么都没得到。

They didn't get anything.

这和参议员约翰·图恩、参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩提出的方案完全一样

This is the same deal that senator John Thune, senate majority leader John Thune

在社交媒体上，在有线新闻里。

On social media, on cable news.

这简直不可理喻，不可理喻。

It is unconscionable unconscionable.

还有这个

And this

民主党内部这场情绪化的爆发。

emotionally charged explosion within the Democratic party.

为什么我们表现得好像民主党刚刚输掉了选举一样？

Like, why are we acting as if Democrats just lost the election?

民主党取得了压倒性胜利。

Democrats had overwhelming victories.

我不明白为什么一位民主党参议员会发出'哇'的感叹。

I don't understand how a Democratic senator goes, wow.

我们确实大获全胜。

We won really big.

现在让我让步吧。

Let me cave now.

我不明白华盛顿这些人以为自己在做什么，他们声称代表的人民根本得不到代表。

I don't understand what these people in Washington think they're doing representing the people who they claim to represent.

我认为这重新引发了党内关于民主党在当前形势下应如何定位的激烈辩论。

That I think has resurrected a lot of the sort of fierce debates that are happening internally within the party when it comes to how should Democrats position themselves in this moment.

民主党如何才能最有效地反击特朗普政府？

How can Democrats best fight back against the Trump administration?

好的，凯蒂，非常感谢你。

Well, Katie, thank you very much.

谢谢你，迈克尔。

Thank you, Michael.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

我是托马斯·吉本斯内夫特。

My name is Thomas Gibbonsneft.

我是《纽约时报》的记者。

I'm a journalist at The New York Times.

我曾在美国海军陆战队担任步兵。

I served in the Marine Corps as an infantryman.

在前线报道时，许多基本要素都在发挥作用。

When it comes to reporting on the front line, a lot of the same basics are at play.

你正在查看目的地的地图。

You're looking at the map of where you're going.

如果你在铺装道路或田野小路上，附近有医院吗？

If you're on a paved road, field roads, you know, is there a hospital nearby?

你的防弹衣上固定了急救包吗？

Is your body armor affixed with a first aid kit?

每个人都知道急救包放在哪里吗？

Does everyone know where that first aid kit is?

我们抵达了一处军事阵地。

We arrive into a military position.

我下了车。

I get out of the car.

我看了看手表。

I look at my watch.

我设定了计时器。

You know, I set a timer.

不超过一小时。

No more than an hour.

我留意着无人机和喷气机的动静，并与团队保持联络。

I'm listening for drones, jets, check-in with the team.

大家都适应吗？

Is everyone comfortable?

如果都准备好了，我们就继续前进。

And if they are, then we proceed.

前线报道很危险，但我认为没有什么比与被卷入其中的人们交谈更重要——倾听他们的故事，并将这些故事传递给千里之外的人们。

Frontline reporting is dangerous, but I think nothing is more important than talking to the people involved, you know, hearing their stories and being able to connect that with people thousands of miles away.

我认为，任何能让这类事件更具个人色彩的做法，都值得冒险一试。

Anything that can make something like this more personal, I think, is well worth the risk.

《纽约时报》的订阅者让我们能够持续进行这项重要报道。

New York Times subscribers make it possible for us to keep doing this vital coverage.

如果您想订阅，请访问nytimes.com/subscribe。

If you'd like to subscribe, you can do that at nytimes.com/subscribe.

肖恩，感谢你的到来。

Shane, thank you for being here.

谢谢邀请我参加。

Thanks for having me on.

上次你来演播室

The last time you were in the studio

还不到一周前。

Less than one week ago.

不到一周前，选举之夜，你曾指出这对民主党而言是个非凡的胜利时刻。

Less than one week ago, election night, and you came on to observe what an extraordinary moment of triumph it was for Democrats.

而现在不到一周后，民主党人就开始互相指责，选举中的压倒性胜利已演变成——正如凯蒂所说——投降、背叛和妥协的指控。

And now less than a week later, the Democrats are screaming at each other, and resounding victory at the polls has yielded to claims, as Katie just said, of capitulation, betrayal, caving.

一周时间竟能带来如此巨变。

What a difference a week makes.

我与民主党策略师交流时听到的术语是：这感觉像是民主党在自毁长城，他们刚经历特朗普艰难一周后的高光时刻。

The term that has come up as I've talked to Democratic strategists has been that this feels like a self own for the Democratic Party, that the Democratic Party had been riding high after a rough week for Donald Trump.

却在新一周开始时，决定放弃党内基层渴望已久、且至少在政治层面看似即将获胜的斗争。

And here, starting this next week, they decided this was the moment to give up a fight that the party's base had been craving and one that they seemingly had been winning at least politically.

我希望你尽可能回答这个简单的问题。

I want you to answer, to the best of your ability, this very simple question.

总体而言，如果我们假设这次政府停摆即将结束，这对民主党来说是好事还是坏事？

Taken in its totality, if we assume this shutdown is going to soon be over, was this a good experience for the Democrats or a bad one?

让我们从好的方面开始。

Let's start with the good.

好的方面是民主党明确提升了两项他们认为能赢得选举的议题。

The good is that the Democratic Party has clearly elevated two issues that it feels are the winning issues for the party.

第一是医疗保健，第二是通过医疗保健议题传达的生活成本问题。

The first is health care, and the second is affordability told through health care.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这些议题已成为数周来的主要讨论话题，对于一个在华盛顿没有实权的少数党来说，这相当不容易。

And those have been the dominant topic of conversation for weeks, which is pretty hard to pull off when you're the minority party with no power in Washington.

他们甚至需要一场政府停摆来实现这一点，并希望选民在停摆结束后仍能记住：哦，这个政党确实在这些议题上为我抗争过。

And it took a shutdown for them to do that and for them to elevate those issues in hopes that long past the shutdown, voters will think, oh, that's the party that's actually fighting for me on those issues.

对。

Right.

这是账本的一边，好的一面。

So that's one side of the ledger, the good side.

这是好的一面。

That's the good side.

但这场斗争的风险在于抬高了人们的期望值，以为他们真能取得某些成果。嗯。

But the risk of that fight was inflating people's expectations that they were actually gonna win something Mhmm.

在这些议题上。

On those issues.

对吧？

Right?

他们必须宣称：我们为此奋斗是为了达成某些具体目标，但最终并未实现。

They had to say, we're fighting for this because we want x y z outcomes, and they didn't get those outcomes.

他们只争取到了投票承诺，而这并不能保证通过。

They've got the promise of a vote, which is not guaranteed to pass.

没错。

Right.

有人称之为小指承诺。

Someone called it a pinky promise.

小指承诺。

A pinky promise.

就是这样。

There you go.

糟糕的是，这次政府停摆结束的时机恰好发生在民主党在特朗普时代刚开始感受到一些难得的势头之际。

And so the bad is that the timing of this shutdown ending is coming just as the Democratic Party was actually starting to feel some rare momentum in the Trump era.

民主党偏偏就在形势看似大好的时候选择了屈服。

That's exactly when the Democrats chose to cave, seemingly when things were going great.

此刻屈服的决策正在释放积压数月的怒火与能量——民主党人对自家政党的愤怒。

And so this decision to cave at this moment is unleashing the anger and energy that has been herbaling beneath the surface for months, which is the Democrats are angry at their own party.

这种愤怒已经持续一整年了。

And they have been all year.

基本上从卡玛拉·哈里斯落选后就开始了。

They have been basically since Kamala Harris lost.

而政府停摆曾是个引人注目的小插曲，让民主党人暂时停止了对同党的憎恶。

And the shutdown was this sort of notable little reprieve where Democrats kinda stopped hating Democrats for a little while.

记得夏天昆尼皮亚克大学有项民调显示，民主党选民对国会中民主党议员的支持率只有39%。

I mean, there was a Quinnipiac poll over the summer that showed that Democratic approval rating of Democrats in Congress was at 39%.

这个数据非常糟糕。

That's a really bad stat.

而同一机构十月份的民调显示，支持率飙升20个百分点达到58%。

And that same pollster took a poll in October, and it had jumped 20 percentage points to 58%.

依然不理想。

Not great.

对吧？

Right?

人们不会突然坠入爱河。

People aren't suddenly in love.

大幅增长。

The big increase.

我真的很想看看现在这些数字会是什么样子，因为希望的泡沫在这次政府停摆中膨胀又破灭了。

I'll be really interested to see what those numbers look like now that that bubble of hope had been inflated and deflated in this shutdown.

说到制造这个希望泡沫的后果——这种认为政府停摆将给国家医疗体系带来实质性改变的想法（我们并不认同），从更广泛意义上说，这原本能展示民主党人真正愿意对抗总统的决心——他们确实这么做了，直到后来放弃了。

Well, talk about the consequences of having created this hope bubble, this idea that the shutdown was going to lead to meaningful changes in the country's health care system, which we don't think they are, and in a broader sense, would show that Democrats were willing to really take on the president, which they were until they weren't.

我的意思是，这本来就是进入停摆状态的风险所在。

I mean, this was always the risk of entering the shutdown.

对吧？

Right?

查克·舒默非常清楚地说明了他们为何要让政府停摆、他们在争取什么，但并没有制定出能在政策上取得胜利的退出策略。

Chuck Schumer was very clear about why they should have this shutdown, what they were fighting for, but there wasn't an endgame to get out of it with a win on policy.

所以最终必然会以这种难堪的局面收场，就像人们向我描述的那样。

And so you were always going to have this ugly ending, as people have described it to me.

即使通过所有这些不太可能的方式，他们在关于这个问题的民调中表现尚可，但人们依然担心结局会很糟糕。

The the fear of how it was gonna end was gonna be bad, even if in all these unlikely ways, they were actually doing okay in public polling about the issue.

因此我认为，真正投票结束停摆的人非常能说明问题。

And so who actually voted to end the shutdown, I think, is really revealing.

而那些真正投票结束停摆的人，都是最不可能面临任何实际反弹的人。

And the people who voted to actually end the shutdown are the people furthest removed from facing any real backlash.

因为这八位民主党参议员——与民主党结盟的参议员——明年都不需要参加改选。

Because none of those eight Democratic senators, Democratic aligned senators, are on the ballot next year.

他们要么即将退休，要么要等到2028或2030年才面临改选。

They're all either retiring or on the ballot in 2028 or 2030.

参议院采用交错任期制，这是你在华盛顿可以采取的策略。

The senate has these staggered terms, and this is something you can do in Washington.

尽量让你最脆弱的成员避开那些最艰难的投票表决。

Try to keep your most vulnerable people out of having to cast the toughest votes.

有意思。

Interesting.

你是说民主党——假设这算某种有组织的策略，虽然我们并不完全确定——让那些离选举最远、最安全的民主党参议员去干所谓的‘脏活’，即在未兑现改善医疗承诺的情况下重启政府运作。

You're saying that the Democrats, to the degree that this is any kind of organized strategy, which I guess we're not entirely sure, put the safest Democratic senators furthest from election out to do the, quote, unquote, dirty work here of reopening the government without fulfilling the promise of improving health care.

是的。

Yes.

所以我认为这里的赞成票非常能说明问题。

So I think the yes votes here are really revealing.

但有一张反对票我觉得特别耐人寻味。

But there's one no vote that I found especially interesting.

谁？

Who?

约翰·奥索夫。

John Ossoff.

他是明年面临选举的最脆弱的参议员。

He is the most vulnerable senator up for election next year.

所以他将直面选民。

So he will face the voters.

他正在佐治亚州竞选，非常专注于大选。

And he's running in Georgia and really focused on his general election.

对吧？

Right?

目前初选中还没有人与他竞争。

No one's running against him in the primary right now.

这里的反对票表明，他不想在这次竞选中冒险引发党内反弹。

And what the no vote here says is that he doesn't want to risk backlash from inside his own party in this campaign.

无论是可能从这些愤怒团体中招募出的初选挑战者，还是那些资助他竞选的小额捐款人决定——你知道吗？

Whether that's from a potential primary challenger who could get recruited from one of these angry groups, or whether it's the small donors who are fueling his campaign deciding, you know what?

也许我们对约翰·奥索夫没那么感兴趣了。

Maybe we're not so into John Ossoff.

他不想冒险引发反弹。

He doesn't wanna risk backlash.

这很有意思。

That's fascinating.

正如你所暗示的，约翰·奥索夫完全可以最关注大选中的共和党对手说：你本应投票让政府重新开门。

Because as you're suggesting, John Ossoff could reasonably be most focused on a Republican opponent in a general election saying, you should have voted to reopen the government.

这才是这场竞选的关键。

That's what matters in this race.

而你所说的是，他更担心在潜在初选中惹恼民主党人，这才是他关于政府停摆投票的动机。

And instead, what you're saying is he's more worried about upsetting Democrats in a potential primary, and that's what animated his vote on the shutdown.

最终他投票维持政府停摆，因为他想表现得站在民主党基本盘一边。

And in the end, he votes to keep the government shutdown because he wants to look like he's on the side of the Democratic base.

我们认为这就是事情的真相。

That's what we think happened here.

是啊。

Yeah.

老兄，我还没和奥索夫参议员谈过，但你可以看到有两个选择。

I'm dude, I have not talked to senator Ossoff here, but what you can see is that there are two choices.

选择一是投票重开政府并表态：我要违逆我的党派。嗯。

Choice one is vote to reopen the government and say, I'm gonna buck my party Mhmm.

即使我的左翼人士因此攻击我，我也要让政府重新运作。

And I'm gonna reopen the government even if people on my left attack me for it.

对吧？

Right?

这在很多地方都是卖点。

That's a selling point in a lot of places.

对吧？

Right?

所以这位民主党人表示，这种算计方式不对。

And so here's a Democrat saying, you know, that's not the right calculus here.

就他做出政治动机的选择而言。

To the extent he's making a politically motivated choice.

正确的算计应该是确保自己党派喜欢你、支持你，将你视为斗士，因为你需要这种能量为中期选举造势。

The right calculus is to make sure that your own party likes you and supports you and sees you as a fighter because you want that energy behind you in a coming midterm election.

我也注意到，几位有望成为下届总统候选人的民主党人今早醒来就认定这是个糟糕的决定。

I noticed as well that several of the Democrats hoping to be the next presidential nominee woke up this morning on Monday and decided that this was a terrible decision.

我觉得很多人昨晚就决定了，根本等不及。

I think a lot of them decided last night they didn't even wait.

你懂吗？

You know?

他们周日就开始发表这些声明了。

Like, they started issuing these statements on Sunday.

你看加文·纽森就在判决刚下达时说美国值得更好的。

You saw it from Gavin Newsom who said, just as it was done, that America deserves better.

参议员克里斯·墨菲也发表了类似看法。

You saw it from Chris Murphy who's in the senate.

你看得出我有多累。

You can see how tired I am.

我整个周末都在这里。

I've been here all weekend.

过去几周我一直在努力试图避免这一刻的发生。

I've been working throughout the past few weeks to try to prevent this moment.

他说，我们本可以赢得这场斗争。

He said, we could have won this fight.

我们过早放弃了。

We gave up too early.

这无可辩驳，你们对此感到愤怒是应该的。

There's no way to defend this, and you are right to be angry about it.

我也对此感到愤怒。

I'm angry about it.

你们从罗·卡纳那里看到了。

You saw it from Ro Khanna.

我们能恢复过来吗？

Can we recover?

能。

Yes.

我认为恢复的第一步是需要代际更替和新领导层。

I think that the first step to recovering is to have generational change and new leadership.

某个人

Someone

一位来自加州的国会议员说舒默，是时候让他下台了。

A congressman from California who said Schumer, it's time for him to go.

安排。

Placed.

他没有应对好当前局势。

He is not meeting the moment.

他与党内基层脱节了。

He's out of touch with where the party's base is.

如果你正考虑或计划以民主党人身份参选2028年总统，那你基本上已经公开谴责了这项协议。

If you are thinking or planning to run for president as a Democrat in 2028, you've basically denounced this deal.

肖恩，既然罗·卡纳提到了查克·舒默，我们就来谈谈他在这件事中的角色。

Well, Shane, since Ro Khanna brought Chuck Schumer up, let's talk about his place in all of this.

就在我们谈话的当下，有相当多的愤怒情绪正指向他，然而正是他把民主党带入了政府停摆的境地。

There's a fair bit of anger being directed at him today as we're speaking, yet he's the one who brought the Democrats into the shutdown.

他协助制定了这一策略。

He helped create the strategy.

他是这场史上最长政府停摆的策划者，也是在这些特定议题上展开斗争的谋划者。

He is the architect of now what has been the longest shutdown in history and the architect of fighting on these particular issues.

没错。

Right.

声称这些是我们现在可以为之奋斗，日后能取得胜利的目标。

Saying these are something that we can fight for now and win on later.

为选民提升这些议题的重要性。

Elevate this for voters.

让他们考虑负担能力问题。

Make them think about affordability.

让他们关注医疗保障问题。

Make them think about health care.

他设计了这套宣传话术。

He created the message.

他让党内成员始终贯彻这套话术，并维持党内团结长达四十天。

He's kept them on the message, and he kept his conference together for forty days.

那为什么人们还如此愤怒

So so why are people mad

对他？

at him?

因为他是领导者。

Because he's the leader.

对吧？

Right?

令人沮丧的是，查克·舒默如果真的是一位领导者，就应该让他的党派保持一致，直到他认定自己未与他们共同投票的事实——当然，这意味着他目前不支持结束政府停摆——但实际上他并未充分领导并约束他们去进行他们想要的那场斗争。

The frustration is Chuck Schumer, if he was really the leader, would keep his party in line until he decided that the fact that he didn't vote with them, sure, that that means he's not supporting ending the shutdown right now, but he's not actually leading and keeping them in line sufficiently to have the fight that they wanna have.

明白了。

Got it.

所以我想观察一下我们当前的处境，这确实是个非常有趣的节点。

So I just wanna observe where we are, and it's a really interesting place.

那些想当总统的民主党人正在猛烈抨击这份由同党成员达成的协议。

Democrats who wanna be president are railing against this deal that was achieved by fellow Democrats.

这正表明他们此刻多么渴望与特朗普总统对抗。

That's how much they want a fight right now against president Trump.

像约翰·奥索夫这样身处摇摆州的参议员，正在反对这份很可能即将结束政府停摆的协议。

Senators like John Ossoff in a very purple place, they're fighting this deal to end the shutdown the way that it's probably going to be ending.

这正表明他此刻多么渴望与特朗普总统对抗。

That's how much he wants a fight against president Trump right now.

大多数参议院民主党人都在投票反对这份由他们同党成员达成的协议。

The majority of senate Democrats are voting against this deal struck by their own fellow Democrats.

这正表明整个民主党如今多么渴望以对抗特朗普总统作为品牌宣言。

That's how much the whole party wants to be fighting president Trump by now as as a kind of a brand message.

这让我想起我们的同事卡尔·哈尔斯在四十多天前政府停摆那晚对我说的话。

And that brings me back to what our colleague, Carl Hulse, said to me the night that the shutdown began forty something days ago.