特朗普瞄准委内瑞拉石油

这是A。

This is A.

O。

O.

斯科特。

Scott.

我是《纽约时报》的评论员。

I'm a critic at The New York Times.

我和其他评论员所做的工作，与《纽约时报》所有记者每天所从事的项目是一体的，旨在为你提供清晰的见解和视角，最重要的是，帮助你更深入地理解这个世界。

What I do and what the other critics here do is part of the same project that all of the journalists at The New York Times work on every day to give you clarity and perspective, and above all, a deeper understanding of the world.

当你订阅《纽约时报》时，不仅仅是让你看到头条新闻，而是让你明白所有事情是如何相互关联的。

When you subscribe to The New York Times, it's not just here are the headlines, but here's the way everything fits together.

如果你想订阅，请前往 nytimes.com/subscribe。

If you'd like to subscribe, please go to nytimes.com/subscribe.

来自《纽约时报》，我是娜塔莉·基托夫。

From The New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitroef.

这是《每日新闻》。

This is The Daily.

在对委内瑞拉的升级行动中，特朗普政府已从拦截毒品快艇，转向试图在加勒比海扣押多艘油轮。

In its escalating campaign against Venezuela, the Trump administration has gone from shooting down drug boats to now trying to seize multiple oil tankers in the Caribbean Sea.

今天，我的同事阿纳托利·克鲁马内耶夫解释了特朗普总统为何改变对委内瑞拉的策略，以及这可能揭示了他真正的最终目标。

Today, my colleague Anatoly Krumanayev explains why president Trump is shifting his tactics on Venezuela and what that might tell us about his true endgame.

今天是12月24日，星期三。

It's Wednesday, December 24.

阿纳托利，圣诞快乐。

Anatoli, Merry Christmas.

感谢你今天加入我们。

Thanks for joining us today.

谢谢你邀请我。

Thank you for having me.

我们上次采访你时，美国军方正在加强对拉美地区船只的打击，称这些船只正在向美国运送毒品。

So the last time we talked to you was when the US military was ramping up these strikes on boats in Latin America that they claimed were running drugs to The US.

我们现在再次联系您，是因为在过去几周里，我们听到了关于加勒比地区新一波升级行动的消息——美国扣押了运送委内瑞拉石油的船只。

We are coming back to you now because over the past few weeks, we have been hearing about this new kind of escalation in The Caribbean, which is The US seizing ships that have been carrying Venezuelan oil.

所以请帮我们理解一下，您如何解读这一新元素？这一行动本身已经非常引人注目。

So help us understand how you're interpreting this new element to this operation, which has been dramatic in its own right.

纳塔莉，过去几周里，我们看到了叙事上的重大转变。

We have seen major shifts in the narrative over the last few weeks, Natalie.

焦点已从主要的军事行动转向主要的经济行动。

The focus has shifted from a primarily military campaign to primarily economic campaign.

美国政府已不再针对加勒比海的船只发动袭击，也不再声称要阻止从委内瑞拉流向美国的毒品。

The US government has moved away from boat strikes in The Caribbean, and the alleged campaign to stop the flow of drugs coming from Venezuela to The United States.

而是转向了委内瑞拉的石油。

And they have moved towards Venezuelan oil.

他们开始对出口石油的油轮采取行动——这是该国最大的收入来源，其目的非常明确：通过施压使委内瑞拉财政陷入窒息，从而实现他们在军事手段下未能达成的目标。

They moved towards taking action against tankers exporting ministerial oil, the the biggest source of the country's revenue, with a very clear attempt to to squeeze the country's finances, squeeze into the point of strangulation, and achieve the results that they have not been able to achieve for military ends.

那么目标是什么？

And what is the goal?

好吧，美国官员为这场行动所使用的理由在过去几个月里一直有所变化。

Well, the rationale that The US officials have used for this campaign has varied throughout last several months.

但越来越多地，美国官员在公开场合传达的信息是关于政权更迭。

But increasingly, the message coming out from US officials in public is about regime change.

对吧？

Right?

美国对委内瑞拉采取的所有这些不同措施，都是为了迫使总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗下台。

That all these different measures that US has taken against Venezuela is to force president Nicolas Maduro to to leave office.

嗯。

Mhmm.

特朗普过去曾试图通过打压委内瑞拉经济来赶走马杜罗。

And Trump has attempted to crash the Venezuelan economy in the past with a view of getting rid of Maduro.

但我们现在看到的情况是前所未有的。

But what we're seeing right now is unprecedented.

这是几十年来对拉丁美洲国家施加的最大经济压力。

It's the biggest economic pressure against a Latin American state that we've seen in in decades.

好的。

Okay.

让我们逐一梳理我们所看到的情况。

Let's walk through exactly what we've seen.

正如你所说，这场压力行动的新阶段——也是前所未有的阶段——究竟是如何开始的？

How exactly did this new, and as you said, unprecedented phase of this pressure campaign start?

12月10日，一艘名为‘Skipper’的油轮载着约200万桶石油，正向东驶向中国，这是委内瑞拉石油的最大市场。

So on December 10, an oil tanker called Skipper carrying about 2,000,000 barrels of oil was heading east towards China carrying Venezuelan oil to its biggest market.

特朗普政府发布了一段非凡的视频，展示了在美国海域附近扣押一艘油轮的过程。

Extraordinary video released by the Trump administration showing the seizure of an oil tanker off of Venezuela.

随后，这艘油轮在国际水域遭到美国执法官员的伏击。

Then it was ambushed international waters by US law enforcement agents.

观看美国海军直升机蜂拥而至的画面。

Watch as US Navy helicopters swarmed the tanker.

有人从直升机上绳降而下。

Who rappelled from a helicopter.

登上油轮甲板时，我看到他们持枪出现。

Coming on to the deck of the oil tanker, and then as I see it there, guns drawn.

并控制了这艘船。

And took control of the vessel.

今晚，公布了新的卫星图像，显示被美国在委内瑞拉海岸附近扣押的那艘油轮正驶向德克萨斯州加尔维斯顿港。

Tonight, new satellite images of that oil tanker seized by The US off the coast of Venezuela headed to a port in Galveston, Texas.

并命令船员将船驶向德克萨斯州。

And ordered the crew to take the ship towards Texas.

这是特朗普总统对委内瑞拉施压行动的新升级，他称委内瑞拉是一个非法的贩毒恐怖政权。

It's a new escalation in president Trump's pressure campaign against Venezuela and what he calls its illegitimate narco terrorist regime.

起初，这艘油轮的扣押似乎是一次孤立事件，就像一场大型公关行动，旨在吸引全球关注，转移公众对日益棘手的毒品船袭击事件的注意力——这些事件在美国公众舆论中越来越成问题，并将引发包括一些共和党人在内的美国议员越来越强烈的反弹。

And at first, the tanker's detention appeared to be a one off, you know, like a big public relations move, you know, aimed to grab world attention, shift the narrative away from attacks on drug boats, which were becoming increasingly problematic in US public opinion and would draw an increasing backlash from American lawmakers, including even some Republicans.

这次扣押是一场戏剧性的举动，对我们这些关注委内瑞拉的人来说，当时认为这不过是障眼法。

And the seizure was theatrical move that, for many of us that cover Venezuela, thought was a red herring.

但显然，这并不是障眼法。

But it obviously wasn't a red herring.

这并不是一次性的行动。

It wasn't a one off.

随后，政府开始针对更多油轮。

The administration then started going after more tankers.

这成为了更大规模行动的一部分。

It became part of something bigger.

今天早上，美国正在加强对委内瑞拉的压力行动。

This morning, The United States is escalating its pressure campaign against Venezuela.

自那以后，我们看到美国对另外两艘与委内瑞拉石油有关的油轮采取了行动。

Since then, we have seen The US take action against two more oil tankers with ties to Venezuelan oil.

美国海岸警卫队正在委内瑞拉海岸追击第三艘油轮。

The US Coast Guard is pursuing a third tanker off the Venezuelan coast.

这是过去十天内的第三艘。

It's the third in the last ten days.

就在我们说话时，他们正在追击另一艘曾在委内瑞拉运营的船只，这艘船正前往委内瑞拉装载原油。

And they, as we speak, they are chasing another vessel that has worked in Venezuela, which was on the way to the country to pick up crude there.

他们正在海上积极追击它。

They're actively chasing it in the ocean.

是的。

Yeah.

这很难在脑海中形成画面，因为显然，油轮不可能跑过美国的炮艇，但特朗普承诺他们最终会抓住它。

It's a very tough image to understand in your head because, clearly, a tanker cannot outrun American gunboats, but Trump has promised that they will get it eventually.

明白了。

Got it.

所以两艘被扣押的油轮，一艘逃跑了。

So two seized tankers, one that's fled.

委内瑞拉政府目前对此有何反应？

How is the Venezuelan government responding to all this at this point?

委内瑞拉政府非常愤怒。

Venezuelan government is livid.

一位消息人士称，马杜罗不只是生气。

One source said Maduro is not just angry.

他疯了。

He's bananas.

他们称美国为杀人犯、小偷、海盗，把美国比作加勒比海的海盗。

They have called The US murderers, thieves, pirates, referring to, you know, United States as the pirates of The Caribbean.

阿纳托利，上次我们谈话时，你明确表示，迫使马杜罗下台是特朗普政府内部一些权势人物的重要目标，尤其是马可·卢比奥和国务卿。

Anatoli, when we talked last, you made it very clear that forcing Maduro out was a big goal for very powerful people inside the Trump administration, Marco Rubio, the secretary of state in particular.

听起来，自那以来，这一目标变得更加明确了。

And it sounds like that goal has become even more explicit in the weeks since.

但特朗普对政府此举的官方理由说了什么？

But what is Trump saying about the official justification for what the administration is doing here?

最初的解释是，美国只是在执行已有的制裁措施。

So the initial explanation was that US is simply enforcing sanctions already in place.

特朗普做了一些以往政府不敢做的事。

Trump was doing something that previous administrations didn't have the gut to do.

我们能暂停一下，解释一下你提到的那些早已存在于委内瑞拉的现有制裁吗？

Can we just pause there and explain for a moment these preexisting sanctions that you're saying have existed on Venezuela?

给我详细说说这些。

Take me through those.

在他的第一个任期内，特朗普曾积极推动推翻马杜罗政权。

During his first administration, Trump made an initial push to topple Maduro from power.

他还对委内瑞拉石油工业实施了制裁。

And he sanctioned Venezuelan oil industry.

他禁止美国公司与委内瑞拉国家石油公司合作，而该公司拥有委内瑞拉全部石油资源。

He made it illegal for American companies to work with Venezuela State Oil Company, which owns all the oil in Venezuela.

这使得委内瑞拉很难出售其石油。

And this made it very difficult for Venezuela to to sell its oil.

于是，它开始越来越依赖所谓的黑暗船队或影子船队。

And it started to increasingly rely on the so called dark fleet or shadow fleet, basically.

这些油轮游走在国际法的边缘，主要将受制裁的石油运往中国。

Tankers exist on the very edge of legality of international law, but carry sanctioned oil around the world primarily to China.

委内瑞拉对受制裁船只的依赖，为当前的特朗普政府提供了绝佳借口，以打击其石油工业。

And Venezuela's reliance on sanctioned vessels has given the current Trump administration a perfect excuse to go after its oil industry.

你说特朗普政府现在正在积极执行这些制裁，而以前它并不愿意这样做，拜登政府也从未如此做过。

And you said that the Trump administration is now going out and actually enforcing these sanctions in a way that it wasn't willing to do before, and in a way that the Biden administration hasn't done before.

为什么？

Why?

长期以来，最大的担忧是扰乱脆弱的全球石油市场。

Well, the big fear has always been upsetting the fragile global oil market.

对吧？

Right?

引发行业波动并推高全球油价，这会影响美国的油价，你知道，通胀显然是美国的一个重大政治问题。

Creating volatility in the industry and raising global oil prices, which would have an impact on American pumps, you know, inflation being obviously a massive political issue in The United States.

这在一定程度上阻止了特朗普和拜登政府执行这些制裁。

And that has prevented Trump and the Biden administration in part from enforcing the sanctions.

但这个月，特朗普决定放手一搏。

But this month, Trump decided to give it a shot.

他抛开了以往的谨慎，大力打击委内瑞拉的石油产业。

He threw to the side the caution of the past and went big time against Venezuelan's oil industry.

到目前为止，对油价的影响相当有限。

And so far, the effects on the oil prices has been fairly muted.

还有许多其他因素在起作用。

There are a lot of other different factors at play.

经济疲软。

The economy is weak.

市场上还有大量其他被制裁的石油。

There's a lot of other sanctioned oil out there.

但到目前为止，油价并未出现任何显著上涨，这给了他一个全权授权，以扩大并升级他的策略。

But so far, the prices have not bulged in any meaningful way, which has given him a a carte blanche to to expand his strategy to to scale it up.

但在意大利，还有一个更大的正当性在起作用。

But there's a bigger justification in play in Italy.

在第一艘油轮被扣押后不久，特朗普就在他的媒体平台Truth Social上发表了一篇长文，指控委内瑞拉政府大规模窃取美国石油。

You know, shortly after the detention of the first tanker, Trump published his long screed on Truth Social, his his media platform, where he alleged a wholesale theft of American oil by Venezuelan governments.

在他看来，委内瑞拉政府窃取了美国的土地、窃取了美国的石油、打压了美国石油公司，而他正在纠正这一历史错误。

Venezuelan governments, according to him, has stolen American land, has stolen American oil, has deferred American oil companies, and he is righting a historical wrong.

他那里到底在说什么？

What is he actually talking about there?

解释一下。

Explain that.

简短的回答是，我们不知道。

The short answer is that we don't know.

这是一段非常混乱的文字，与任何历史事件都对不上。

It's it's a it's a very incoherent text that does not neatly match on any historical events.

但纵观其历史，委内瑞拉曾多次实行国有化。

But throughout its history, Venezuela had several ways of nationalization.

最近一次是在2007年，马杜罗的前任乌戈·查韦斯将一些油田国有化，导致埃克森美孚和康菲石油等一些美国公司撤离，此后它们一直起诉委内瑞拉政府。

Most recently, in 2007, where Maduro's predecessor, Ugo Chavez, nationalized some of the oil fields, leading to the exodus of some American companies, like ExxonMobil and Kanoko Philips, who have been suing Venezuelan government ever since.

好吧。

Okay.

所以我们并不确定特朗普具体指的是什么，但似乎是在暗示那段国有化时期，当时美国石油公司被逐出委内瑞拉，政府接管了控制权。

So we're not exactly sure what Trump was referring to, but it seems to be a reference to this period of nationalization where American oil companies were kicked out of Venezuela and the government took control.

没错。

That's right.

特朗普宣布了，我引用他的话，对所有进出委内瑞拉的石油油轮实施全面彻底的封锁和制裁。

And Trump announced, and I quote him, a total and complete blockade of all sanctions oil tankers going into and out of Venezuela.

几天后，他的顾问斯蒂芬·米勒跟进发表了更显疯狂的推文，声称委内瑞拉的石油工业是由美国人民的辛勤劳动和智慧创造的，美国要收回自己的权利。

A few days later, his adviser, Stephen Miller, followed up with with an even arguably even more insanuary tweets alleging that the Venezuelan oil industry has been created by the toil and ingenuity of of American people, and America wants its rights back.

但这一切有个例外。

But there is an exception to all this.

对吧？

Right?

阿纳托利，雪佛龙这家美国石油公司仍在委内瑞拉运营。

Anatoly, Chevron, which is an American oil company, is still operating in Venezuela.

没错，娜塔莉。

That's right, Natalie.

现实情况比特朗普政府试图塑造的叙事要复杂得多。

The the reality is a lot more complex than the narrative that the Trump administration is attempting to put forward.

在上一轮国有化浪潮中，并非所有美国公司都离开了。

During that last wave of nationalization, not all American companies have left.

有些公司留了下来，其中最大的一家是雪佛龙。

Some have stayed, and the biggest one of them being Chevron.

它与澳大利亚政府进行了谈判。

It's negotiated with the Australian government.

他们与尼古拉斯·马杜罗政府和美国政府达成的协议，允许他们开采委内瑞拉境内所有正在运营油田的石油，并将其中一半返还给委内瑞拉政府，其余部分出口到美国。

And the deal that they have worked out, both of Nicolas Maduro and the government of United States, allows them to produce all the oil from the fields that are operating in Venezuela and give back half of that oil to the Venezuelan government and export the rest to The United States.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这家公司的想法是，他们愿意承受这段暂时的亏损或利润减少，以期待委内瑞拉政权更迭后公司能迎来反弹。

The thinking of a company has been that they're willing to swallow this temporary period of losses or reduced profits for the eventual bounce that elevates the company in the events of a government change in Venezuela.

委内瑞拉拥有世界上最大的石油储量，而雪佛龙将能够从中受益。

Venezuela is sitting on top of the world's largest oil reserves, and Chevron would be in a position to benefit from that.

有趣的是，一方面，美国政策一直是对马杜罗政权施加最大压力。

It is interesting, that piece of this, that on the one hand, US policy has been to put maximum pressure on the Maduro regime.

然而，另一方面，他们通过允许雪佛龙将石油返还给政府，实际上是在支持这个政权。

And yet, on the other, they are kind of propping up the regime by allowing Chevron to give its oil back to the government.

然而，美国对明尼苏达州的政策现在显得自相矛盾，这很难说通。

Well, it goes to be hard to be inconsistency of American policy towards Minnesota right now.

美国显然有意切断马杜罗的资金来源，最理想的情况是迫使他进行谈判，最坏的情况是迫使他下台。

There's a clear intention to starve Maduro of funds, to force them to negotiate at best and leave power at worst.

另一方面，美国非常担心，一旦该国陷入混乱，委内瑞拉的能源资产会落入中国手中。

On the other hand, US is very preoccupied with Venezuela's energy asset falling into Chinese hands in case of chaos in the country.

对吧？

Right?

因此，美国选择让雪佛龙继续在那里运营，持续获得收入，继续支撑委内瑞拉政府，因为它担心如果雪佛龙撤离，这些油田就会落入中国手中。

So it has chosen to keep Chevron working there, continue earning revenues, continue propping up the Venezuelan government, because it is concerned that if Chevron were to leave, those oil fields would fall into Chinese hands.

这种政策明显的矛盾，使得任何人都难以预测委内瑞拉下一步会发生什么。

And the clear contradictions of this policy makes it very difficult for anyone to understand what will happen in Venezuela next.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

嗨。

Hi.

我是《纽约时报烹饪》的亚历克莎·韦贝尔。

It's Alexa Weibel from New York Times Cooking.

我们有很多简单的平日晚餐食谱，今天我要为你做两道我最喜欢的。

We've got tons of easy weeknight recipes, and I'm gonna make two of my favorites for you today.

做我的五种原料奶油味噌意面时，你只需把意面煮面水和一点味噌、黄油搅拌至顺滑。

For my five ingredient creamy miso pasta, you just take your starchy pasta water, whisk it together with a little bit of miso and butter until it's creamy.

加入面条和一点奶酪。

Add your noodles and a little bit of cheese.

这就像一款升级版的通心粉奶酪，是一道简单易做的平日晚餐，却有着餐厅级别的口感。

It's like a grown up box of mac and cheese, an easy weeknight recipe that feels like a restaurant quality dish.

接下来，我要做我的素食蘑菇沙威玛皮底饼。

Next up, I'm making my vegetarian mushroom shawarma pides.

这道食谱专为高效而设计。

This recipe is just built for efficiency.

把蘑菇和红洋葱与香料拌匀，放进烤箱。

You toss your mushrooms and red onion in your spices, throw them in the oven.

等它们烤好的时候，你的酱汁也准备好了，卷心菜也切好了，就可以开始组装了。

By the time they're done, your sauce is ready, you've chopped your cabbage, and you're ready to assemble.

很难相信，一道味道如此复杂、外观如此丰富多彩、如此美观的菜肴，实际上做起来非常简单，只花二十分钟的主动操作时间。

It feels crazy that something that tastes this complex and looks this colorful and beautiful is actually really easy to make and takes just twenty minutes of active time.

就是美味。

It's just delicious.

《纽约时报烹饪》为你提供了适合忙碌工作日晚餐的简单菜谱。

New York Times cooking has you covered with easy dishes for busy weeknights.

请访问 nytcooking.com 查找这些食谱及其他更多内容。

Find these recipes and more at nytcooking.com.

闻起来真香。

Smells so good.

阿纳托利，在广告之前，你让我们觉得很难预料这一切最终会如何发展。

Anatoli, before the break, you left us with a sense that it is really hard to know how all of this is gonna play out.

但根据你所说，很明显这场运动的目的是在委内瑞拉内部制造痛苦。

But it seems clear from what you've said that the point of this campaign is to create pain inside of Venezuela.

所以我想就此展开讨论。

So I wanna turn to that.

我想谈谈这对国内造成的影响。

I wanna talk about the impact this is having inside the country.

委内瑞拉民众对此有何感受？

How are Venezuelans feeling about it?

马杜罗政权又是如何回应的？

And how is the Maduro regime responding?

自油轮被扣押以来，委内瑞拉的石油专家数量急剧下降。

Since the start of seizures of tankers, Venezuelan oil experts have plummeted.

这是该国迄今为止最大的收入来源。

This is by far the biggest source of revenue for the country.

但我们不知道这将产生怎样的政治影响。

And we don't know what political effect this is going to have.

但我们知道，这将对委内瑞拉经济，进而对委内瑞拉人民造成非常负面的影响。

But we know that this is going to have a very negative effect on Venezuelan economy, and by extension, on Venezuelan people.

纳塔莉，委内瑞拉的大多数人不喜欢马杜罗。

Most people in Venezuela, Natalie, dislike Maduro.

对。

Right.

他们希望他下台。

They want him gone.

去年选举中，超过70%的人投了他的反对票。

More than 70% of them voted against him in last year's election.

他们非常希望看到这个国家发生政治变革。

And they would love to see political change in the country.

特朗普当前使用的这种震慑策略，许多人表示支持。

And this current shock and awe strategy employed by Trump, many support it.

他们愿意承受一定的经济痛苦，只要这能促使马杜罗在可预见的时间内下台。

They are prepared to prop up some economic pain if it means Maduro leaving office in any meaningful amount of time.

委内瑞拉当前的担忧和焦虑是，如果马杜罗挺过了这次打击并成功适应，那么人们担心委内瑞拉人将长期困在贫困、萧条和孤立的经济环境中。

The worry, the anxiety in Venezuela right now is that if Maduro withstands this current blow, if he manages to adapt, then the fear is that Venezuelans will be stuck living in an impoverished, poor, isolated economy.

实际上，这可能会让他们的处境更糟。

It could leave them worse off, actually.

这可能会让他们的处境更糟。

It could leave them worse off.

记住，纳塔莉，这个国家刚刚开始从另一场极其严重的经济危机中复苏，这场危机由马杜罗糟糕的经济政策和腐败引发，并因美国制裁而加剧。

And remember, Natalie, that this country has just been beginning to emerge from another extremely deep economic crisis, which was caused by Maduro's terrible economic policies and corruption, but was aggravated by American sanctions.

过去几年，生活已经稍微轻松了一些。

And life has become a little bit easier in the last few years.

政府放宽了经济管制，取消了许多阻碍经济活动的货币和价格控制措施。

The the government has liberalized the economy, took away many of the currency and price control that have been hobbling economic activity.

人们终于能喘口气了。

People could breathe.

人们能够工作了。

People could work.

他们可以稍微投资一点。

They could invest a little bit.

他们能看到投资的回报。

They can see the return on their investment.

特朗普发起的这场新运动打乱了所有这些计划。

And this new fresh campaign by Trump is scrambling all these plans.

马杜罗政府内部充满了难以置信和焦虑。

And inside of Maduro administration is disbelief and anxiety.

他们仍在努力弄清楚究竟发生了什么，以及该如何应对。

They are still scrambling to figure out what exactly is happening, how they can react to it.

船只不敢前往委内瑞拉。

Ships are afraid to come to Venezuela.

它们正在掉头返航。

They're turning around.

它们不愿意装载委内瑞拉的原油。

They are unwilling to take Venezuelan crude.

它们停泊在港口，因为担心会被扣押。

They are sitting in ports because they're of being seized.

石油必须被泵出。

And the oil has to be pumped.

石油必须持续不断地运到陆地上。

The oil has to keep coming on the ground.

储存能力有限，他们不知道该如何处理这些石油。

Being sold doesn't have a lot of storage, it doesn't know what to do with it.

有人呼吁扣押一些油轮，将它们用作储存设施。

There are calls to seize some of the tankers and use them as storage facilities.

有人建议在油轮上部署武装士兵，护送它们一路前往中国。

There are calls to maybe put armed soldiers on top of the tankers and let them accompany all the way to China.

委内瑞拉的炮艇已经在委内瑞拉水域内为油轮护航。

Venezuela's gunboats have already been escorting tankers inside Venezuelan waters.

有人呼吁扩大这一行动，让这些炮艇进入国际水域，当然这会增加与美国军方发生冲突的风险。

They are calls to maybe expand them and let these gunboats go into international waters, of course, increasing the risk of confrontation with the US military.

目前，委内瑞拉政府内部正处于极度紧张和恐惧的时期。

It's a period of extreme tension and extreme fear inside the Venezuelan government right now.

特朗普政府的逻辑是，通过实施总统所谓的封锁，制造委内瑞拉境内如此恶劣的状况，美国要么促使委内瑞拉人民起义，要么迫使马杜罗自愿辞职交权？

And is the Trump administration's logic here that essentially by imposing what the president has called a blockade, by creating such terrible conditions inside Venezuela, The US either prompts an uprising by the Venezuelan people or Maduro just voluntarily leaves and gives up power?

这就是他们的目标吗？

Is that what they're after?

这就是他们的算计。

That is the calculation.

在过去的几周里，我们看到特朗普政府官员越来越明确地表达他们的意图。

In the last few weeks, we have seen Trump officials becoming increasingly explicit about their aims.

白宫幕僚长苏西·比尔斯表示，美国将持续击沉船只，直到马杜罗认输。

Susie Biles, the White House chief of staff, said that The US is going to keep blowing up boats until Maduro cries uncle.

国土安全部长克里斯汀·诺姆在福克斯新闻上表示，马杜罗必须下台。

Kristin Noem, the Homeland Security Secretary, said on Fox News that Maduro needs to be gone.

他们的算计是，经济压力和经济痛苦将使马杜罗的统治难以为继，最终引发内部起义或军方派系政变，迫使他下台或将其除掉。

The calculation is that the economic pressure, economic pain is going to make Maduro's holding power untenable, that it's gonna lead to an internal uprising, an internal coup by factions of the military that will ask him to leave or eliminate him.

那你觉得这种策略真的会奏效吗？

And what's your sense of whether that will actually work?

因为我知道，你是研究拉丁美洲历史的专家。

Because you, I know, are a student of Latin American history.

美国已经对马杜罗实施了多年的经济打压。

The US has been squeezing Maduro economically for years now.

例如，古巴已经遭受了美国半个多世纪的封锁。

And Cuba, for example, has been under a US embargo for more than a half century.

共产主义政府依然牢牢掌握着权力。

The communist government is still holding on to power.

没错。

That's right.

历史上，经济压力导致政权更迭的先例寥寥无几。

There are few historical precedents for when economic pressure leads to regime change.

政府会适应变化。

Governments adapt.

当经济萎缩时，人们会更加依赖政府，而不是减少依赖。

And when economy shrinks, people become more dependent on the government, not less.

政府在不断缩小的蛋糕中占据了更大的份额。

Government is holding a bigger share of a shrinking pie.

你知道，我在俄罗斯长大，但也听过一些小故事。

You know, I grew up in Russia, but I also had anecdotes.

你知道，一个女学生走在回家的路上，偶然发现她醉醺醺的父亲。

You know, a a schoolgirl is is walking home and stumbles upon her drunken father.

她对他说：爸爸，我听说伏特加涨价了。

And she says to him, daddy, I heard that vodka is getting more expensive.

这意味着你喝酒会变少吗？

Does that mean that you're gonna be drinking less?

他回答：不，亲爱的。

And he goes, no, sweetie.

这意味着你吃饭会变少。

It means you're gonna be eating less.

哇。

Wow.

而且我认为这个类比非常适用于委内瑞拉。

And and I think this analogy applies well to Venezuela.

哇。

Wow.

苏联人确实最有意思的段子。

The Soviets really do have the best anecdotes.

我还注意到，阿纳托利，当一个国家经济被挤压时，显然会发生一件事：受苦的人会试图离开。

I'm also struck, Anatoli, by the obvious thing that happens when you squeeze a country economically, which is that people who are suffering try to leave it.

他们会移民，而这正是特朗普政府非常不希望发生的事。

They migrate, which is another thing the Trump administration really doesn't wanna see happen.

对吧？

Right?

绝对如此。

Absolutely.

而且，我们再次回到了之前讨论过的这项政策的矛盾之处。

And and, again, we're coming back to the contradictions of this policy that we have talked about earlier.

特朗普政府的总体目标是阻止移民流入美国。

The Trump administration's overarching goal is to stop the flow of migrants to The United States.

与此同时，它却在严重恶化委内瑞拉的经济状况，如果这种情况持续下去，将导致更多人从该国移民出境。

At the same time, it is dramatically worsening economic conditions in Venezuela, which, if it continues, is going to lead to another increase in migration from the country.

这将给委内瑞拉的邻国带来压力，并促使一些人向北前往美国。

It's gonna put pressure on Venezuela's neighbors, and it's gonna lead some of the people to head north towards United States.

这一点正是马杜罗政府一直明确指出的：推翻其政权的运动只会制造经济危机和政治不稳定，进而引发该国新的移民危机。

And this is a point that the Maduro government has been making very clear, that the campaign to topple it from power is only going to create an economic crisis and political instability that's going to lead to a new migration crisis in the country.

当我们之前谈到船只袭击时，阿纳托利，你曾提到政府内部有一派主张采取外交途径，通过谈判为美国达成一项协议，从而摆脱这种升级和行动。

When we talked about the boat strikes a while ago, Anatoli, you had mentioned that there was this faction inside of the administration that was pushing for a diplomatic route, for a negotiation that might give The US a deal and a way out of this escalation, this campaign.

现在这些油轮被扣押了，这仍然是一个可行的选择吗？

Is that still an option here with now the seizures of these oil tankers?

这是一个关键问题。

That is a crucial question.

这正是我关注的重点。

That is what I'm focused on.

因为 headlines 非常戏剧性。

Because the the headlines are dramatic.

这些 headlines 是前所未有的。

The headlines are unprecedented.

但在这些戏剧性事件之下，似乎潜藏着一种潜在的外交解决方案。

But underneath these dramatic events actually appears to be a potential diplomatic solution.

特朗普声称马杜罗窃取了美国的石油，欺骗了美国公司，美国要拿回自己的石油。

Trump is saying that Maduro has stolen American oil, that he has defrauded American companies, that America wants its oil back.

当然，马杜罗早在今年春天的上一轮谈判中，就已经向特朗普提供了委内瑞拉的石油。

And, of course, Maduro has already offered Trump Venezuelan oil during an earlier round of negotiations that took place in the spring of this year.

两国政府已非常接近达成一项协议，该协议将大幅增加美国对委内瑞拉的石油投资，使该国开放市场，基本将其石油流向从中国转向美国，并向美国公司和投资开放。

The two governments have come pretty close to an agreement that would see a massive increase of American oil investment in the country, and the country opening up and basically redirecting its flow of oil from China towards United States and opening up to American companies, American investments.

这对美国究竟有什么实际好处？

And what benefit would that actually give The United States?

你能为我们详细解释一下，美国如果控制委内瑞拉的石油储备，究竟能得到什么好处吗？

Can you just walk us through what The US actually gets out of potentially controlling Venezuelan oil reserves?

这将使美国掌控世界上已知最大的石油储备，从而能够控制石油供应、操纵全球油价，并通过操控石油市场奖赏盟友、惩罚对手。

It will give United States control over the world's largest known oil reserves, which in turn means that The US can control the supply of oil, can control the global oil prices, and can reward its allies and punish its adversaries by manipulating the oil market.

好的。

Okay.

所以这是地缘政治上的好处。

So geopolitical benefit.

当然。

Absolutely.

地缘政治上的好处。

Geopolitical benefit.

而且这对美国来说还有一个更大、更根本的好处。

And there's a bigger, more fundamental benefit for The United States.

掌控世界最大的石油储备将使美国能够实现其成为美洲主导力量的计划，将中国、俄罗斯和伊朗等对手逐出该地区，并主导该国的政治与经济环境。

Control of the world's largest oil reserves would allow The United States to follow through of its plan of becoming the dominant player in The Americas, of expelling its adversaries, China, Russia, and Iran, from the region and dominating the country's political and economic environment.

是的。

Yeah.

我们已经看到特朗普政府在最近发布的文件——其国家安全战略中，明确承认这是其在该地区外交政策的目标：使美国成为西半球的主导力量。

And we've seen the Trump administration explicitly acknowledge that that is the goal of its foreign policy in this recent document that it put out, its national security strategy, to establish itself, The United States, as the predominant power in the Western Hemisphere.

那么中国和俄罗斯对此有何反应？

So how are China and Russia responding to this?

到目前为止，我们还只是在旁观。

So far, we're standing on the sidelines.

当然，中国刚刚与美国达成了一项对其经济至关重要的重大贸易协议，并且一直非常谨慎地选择与美国对抗的时机。

Of course, China has just sealed a major trade deal with United States, which is crucial to its economy, and it's been very careful about what fights picks The United States.

我们已经看到在美国针对油轮采取的行动中，中国资产被没收。

We have seen the seizure of Chinese property in the actions taken against tankers.

中国已发表声明谴责这些扣押行为，但并未采取进一步行动。

China has issued a statement condemning these seizures, but has not taken any further action.

俄罗斯也做出了一些口头支持的表态，但仅限于此，未有进一步行动。

Russia as well has made some gestures of verbal support, but has not moved beyond that.

我们没有看到马杜罗的盟友以任何有意义的方式提供援助。

We have not seen Maduro's allies come to its aid in any meaningful way.

我们基本上看到美国的对手承认拉丁美洲是美国的势力范围。

We have basically seen America's adversary acknowledging Latin America as a sphere of American influence.

他们为什么要这么做？

Why would they do that?

他们为什么没有更强烈地为委内瑞拉辩护，反对美国的这一行动？这理论上会扩大美国的权力。

Why aren't they coming out more forcefully in defense of Venezuela and against this action by The US, which theoretically would expand American power?

部分原因是他们相对弱势。

Part of it is a position of relative weakness.

他们 elsewhere 忙于其他事务。

They are preoccupied elsewhere.

当然，俄罗斯正在乌克兰进行一场大规模战争。

Of course, Russia is fighting a massive war in Ukraine.

没错。

Yep.

中国正应对经济放缓。

Chinese dealing with economic slowdown.

他们有更重要的事要处理。

They have bigger fish to fry.

但特朗普的行动也符合该国的基本世界观，即认为世界大国和地区大国有权主导其邻国。

But Trump's actions also fits into this country's fundamental worldview, which basically sees world powers, regional powers having the right to dominate their neighbors.

对俄罗斯而言，马杜罗的倒台是美国承认其在东欧维护自身利益权利的可接受代价。

And for Russia, the loss of Maduro is an acceptable cause for American acknowledgment that it has rights to defend its interest in Eastern Europe.

这很有趣。

It's fascinating.

听起来，这两大强国实际上接受了将世界划分为势力范围对它们同样有利。

It sounds like, basically, an acceptance by these two great powers that, yes, carving up the world into spheres of influence works well for them too.

但确实，普京多年来一直在谈论所谓的多极世界。

But, yeah, the so called multipolar world has been something that Putin has been talking about for for years.

而西方媒体和西方政策制定者此前基本上忽视了这一点。

And, you know, it was sort of largely ignored by Western media, by Western policymakers.

特朗普的行动正在将这个世界变为现实。

And Trump's actions are bringing this world into reality.

阿纳托利，鉴于你告诉我们的一切，你认为在油轮被扣押之后，我们在委内瑞拉地面采取军事行动的可能性是增加了还是减少了？

Anatoli, given everything you've told us, do you think we're more likely or less likely to see military action on the ground in Venezuela than we were before the seizures of the tankers started?

因为我认为，所有这些针对委内瑞拉的行动，都让那些不希望看到战争的人感到担忧。

Because I think all of this action against Venezuela is really concerning for people who don't wanna see a war.

我们已经看到数十艘船只被炸毁，美国航空母舰和其他军舰部署在委内瑞拉周边。

We've now seen dozens of boats blown up, American aircraft carriers, and other warships kind of positioned around Venezuela.

我们不断听到特朗普对地面打击持开放态度。

We keep hearing that Trump is open to land strikes.

总而言之，我们在军事上是正在升级还是趋于缓和？

Bottom line, are we seeing this ratchet up or cool off militarily?

在公海上有油轮被扣押、在加勒比海被追击的情况下，谈论缓和局势真是颇具讽刺意味。

It it is quite ironic talking about cooling off as tankers are being seized in high seas and being chased throughout the Caribbean.

当然，美国仍在继续加强其在该地区的军事存在。

And, of course, The US continues to build up its military presence in the region.

但讽刺的是，我们似乎正看到局势的升级有所缓和。

But paradoxically, perhaps, we are seeing a a certain ramp down of the escalations.

我们注意到，针对船只的打击重点已从委内瑞拉转向东太平洋，而那里才是真正大量可卡因走私的区域。

We have seen the focus of the boat strikes move towards the Eastern Pacific away from Venezuela, an area where actually most of the cocaine is being trafficked.

另一方面，我们正看到对马杜罗施加的经济压力不断加大，以检验这种经济冲击是否足以推翻马杜罗政权。

And we are seeing, on one hand, an escalation of economic pressure of Maduro to see whether this economic shock is going to be enough to topple Maduro from power.

但与此同时，我们正看到一种潜在的OFRAM协议的出现，即通过让马杜罗交出国家的自然资源来换取美国允许其政治势力得以存续。

On the other hand, however, we are seeing the emergence of a potential OFRAM, of a potential diplomatic deal, which would allow Maduro to ensure the survival of his political movements in return for handing the country's natural wealth to The United States.

好了，阿纳托利，非常感谢你。

Well, Anatoly, thank you so much.

很高兴能来这里。

Pleasure to be here.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

以下是今天你需要了解的其他内容。

Here's what else you need to know today.

周二，最高法院拒绝允许特朗普政府向芝加哥地区派遣数百名国民警卫队士兵。

On Tuesday, the Supreme Court refused to allow the Trump administration to send hundreds of National Guard troops into the Chicago area.

这与近期保守派多数在总统权力初步测试中支持特朗普的案件形成了罕见的背离。

It was a rare departure from recent cases where the conservative majority has sided with Trump in early tests of presidential power.

这一命令是临时性的，但它质疑了在其他城市部署类似力量的可行性，并可能为波特兰和洛杉矶的法律挑战设定准则。

The order is preliminary, but it casts out on the viability of similar deployments in other cities and likely will set ground rules for legal challenges in Portland and Los Angeles.

特朗普政府表示，从下个月起，将开始对违约的学生贷款借款人采取扣款措施。

And the Trump administration says it will begin the process of seizing pay from student loan borrowers who are in default starting as soon as next month.

官员们将向一千名借款人发送首批通知，且每月通知数量将增加。

Officials will send the first round of notices to a thousand borrowers, and those notices will increase every month.

目前尚不清楚具体将扣除多少金额，但政府最多可扣留雇员工资的15%用于偿还贷款。

It's unclear exactly how much will be deducted, but the government can take as much as 15% of an employee's wages for loan repayment.

本期节目由罗谢尔·邦贾、香农·莱恩和埃里克·克鲁普克制作。

Today's episode was produced by Rochelle Bonja, Shannon Lynn, and Eric Krupke.

节目由玛丽亚·伯恩和帕特里夏·威伦斯编辑，并得到佩吉·科维特的帮助。

It was edited by Maria Byrne and Patricia Willens with help from Paige Cowitt.

本节目音乐由丹·鲍威尔、黛安·王和马里昂·洛萨诺提供，音频工程由艾莉莎·莫克利完成。

Contains music by Dan Powell, Diane Wong, and Marion Lozano, and was engineered by Alyssa Moxley.

以上就是《每日新闻》的全部内容。

That's it for The Daily.

我是娜塔莉·基特罗特。

I'm Natalie Kitroeth.

假期后见。

See you after the holiday.