特朗普重塑世界秩序的计划

克里斯汀，你有没有买过什么东西然后感叹，哇。

Christine, have you ever bought something and thought, wow.

这个产品真的让我的生活变得更好了。

This product actually made my life better.

完全同意。

Totally.

通常我都是通过Wirecutter发现这些产品的。

And usually, I find those products through Wirecutter.

没错。

Yep.

但你在这里工作。

But you work here.

我们都是。

We both do.

我们是《纽约时报》Wirecutter节目的主持人。

We're the hosts of the Wirecutter show from the New York Times.

我们的职责是研究、测试和审核产品，然后推荐我们最喜欢的。

It's our job to research, test, and vet products and then recommend our favorites.

我们将与团队中140名记者交流，为您带来各个类别中真正能改善生活的最佳产品推荐。

We'll talk to members of our team of 140 journalists to bring you the very best product recommendations in every category that will actually make your life better.

《Wirecutter秀》，在您获取播客的任何平台均可收听。

The Wirecutter Show, available wherever you get podcasts.

我是《纽约时报》的娜塔莉·基特罗夫。

From the New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitrovev.

这是日期。

This is the date.

从抨击欧洲并背弃我们对那里最亲密盟友的承诺，到在加勒比海地区实施致命的美国军事行动，特朗普总统推行了一项并不总是容易理解的强硬外交政策。

From slamming Europe and abandoning our commitments to our closest allies there to carrying out a lethal US military campaign in The Caribbean, president Trump has overseen an aggressive foreign policy that hasn't always been easy to understand.

但白宫现已公布了一项国家安全战略，为这些行动提供了理由，揭示了特朗普的真实目标，并让世界各国感到不安。

But the White House has now unveiled a national security strategy that offers a justification for those actions, laying bare Trump's true goals and alarming countries around the world.

今天，我的同事大卫·桑格将解释这一战略的真实含义，以及它所代表的新兴特朗普主义可能如何永久改变美国的全球关系。

Today, my colleague David Sanger explains what the strategy actually is and how the emerging Trump doctrine it represents may change America's global relationships for good.

今天是12月12日，星期五。

It's Friday, December 12.

大卫，我们的外交政策专家，很高兴你能来。

David, our resident foreign policy expert, it's great to have you here.

娜塔莉，和你在一起总是很愉快。

Natalie, always great to be with you.

右翼选民中就特朗普对国际事务的关注度存在诸多争论，有人认为他并未践行其'美国优先'的既定议程。

There has been a lot of debate on the right among voters about Trump's focus on international affairs, a notion that he's not following through on his stated agenda of putting America and Americans first.

确实，特朗普在第二任期内对全球事务表现得极为活跃。

And it's true that Trump in his second term has been extremely active around the world.

他正与中国进行贸易战。

He's been engaging in a trade war with China.

他轰炸了伊朗核设施，斡旋加沙停火协议。

He's bombed Iran's nuclear facility, brokered a ceasefire in Gaza.

最近还在拉丁美洲实施了海上打击行动。

There's been the recent boat strikes in Latin America.

而在这一切过程中，这些行动如何相互协调一直不太明确。

And through all that, it hasn't always been all that clear exactly how all of these actions cohere.

但现在特朗普政府发布了这份文件，试图阐明国家的外交政策战略，试图为这一切赋予意义。

But now the Trump administration has released this document that tries to articulate the country's foreign policy strategy, that tries to make sense of it all.

那么首先，这是一份什么文件？

So first of all, what is this document?

这是国家安全战略文件。

So this is the national security strategy.

政府发布这份文件并非出于自愿。

And administrations don't turn it out because they want to.

他们发布是因为不得不这样做。

They turn it out because they have to.

国会实际上要求每届政府都必须完成这项工作。

Congress actually requires every administration to go do it.

但它最终也成为了检验政府优先事项的某种罗夏墨迹测试。

But it also ends up becoming a kind of Rorschach test of what an administration's priorities are.

在这个具体案例中，当你阅读这份仅约30页的文件时，最引人注目的是它背离了二战后两党达成的共识——即美国的角色是捍卫自由、支持全球民主国家并支持我们的盟友。

And in this particular case, as you read this document, it's only about 30 pages long, the thing that really strikes you is that it is a retreat from the post World War II bipartisan understanding that the role of The United States is to defend liberty, support democracies around the world, support our allies.

而这份战略中缺失的是美国捍卫人权、保护言论自由和新闻自由等道德使命。

And there's an absence in this strategy of a sort of moral mission for The United States to defend human rights, to defend free speech or free press.

几乎所有这些内容都已不复存在。

Almost all of that is gone.

取而代之的是战略第12页上一句极具揭示性的话。

And instead, there's one really telling line that's on page 12 of the strategy.

上面写道：'美国像阿特拉斯那样支撑整个世界秩序的日子已经结束。'

It says, the days of The United States propping up the entire world order like Atlas are over.

如果那个时代已经结束，如果我们不再以全球自由捍卫者自居，那么新的优先事项是什么？

And if those days are over, if that's no longer our priority being the defender of liberty around the world, what is the new priority?

我们的优先事项是对'美国优先'的最新诠释。

Well, our priority is the latest interpretation of America first.

这意味着不仅要重视贸易，更要让美国变得富裕。

And that means emphasizing not only trade, but making America wealthy.

你听特朗普总统说过多少次这样的话了？

How many times have you heard President Trump say that?

他周二晚上在宾夕法尼亚州再次强调，他将先让美国重新富裕起来，继而实现伟大复兴。

He said it again on Tuesday night in Pennsylvania, that he would make America rich again on its way to making it great again.

这份文件着重阐述了美国将如何为自身利益重塑世界秩序。

It is a document that is very heavy on how The United States will try to order the world for its benefit.

正如你所说，我在相关报道中注意到这份文件聚焦于让美国变得富裕，强调利润导向。

You know, I've seen this in the coverage around this document that there is a focus on making America, as you said, wealthy, a focus on profit.

这实际上意味着什么？

What does that actually mean?

总统的理念是：我们国家最强大的力量源泉在于成为经济和科技领域的领导者。

Well, the president's concept here is that our greatest source of national strength is being the economic leader, the technological leader.

其中部分主张与民主党及其他共和党总统的政见颇为相似。

Now parts of this are quite common with Democrats and other Republican presidents.

你们看到乔·拜登曾试图将半导体制造业迁回美国。

You saw Joe Biden try to bring semiconductor manufacturing back to The United States.

但特朗普正在将这一理念推向新高度，基本上主张美国所有政策都应致力于增进国家财富和经济安全。

But Trump is taking this to the next level here, basically saying that all the policies of The US should be geared toward improving our wealth and our economic security.

而且他在这方面的论述篇幅远超传统国家安全议题。

And he focuses many more pages on that than the traditional issues of national security.

真正让我震惊的是，娜塔莉，这不仅不同于二战后我们见过的绝大多数国家安全战略。

And what really struck me, Natalie, is this is not only different from most of the national security strategies we've seen since the end of World War II.

这甚至与特朗普2017年刚上任时制定的国家安全战略有着天壤之别。

It's dramatically different from Donald Trump's own national security strategy when he first came to office in 2017.

请详细解释一下这一点。

Break that down for me.

这与特朗普之前的政策有何不同？

How is it different from Trump's own previous policy?

2017年时，他的国家安全顾问审视全局后得出结论：整个体系仍聚焦于反恐——这是911事件及其余波、伊拉克和阿富汗战争带来的必然结果。

Well, in 2017, his national security adviser looked around the national security landscape and basically came to the conclusion that it was all still focused on counterterrorism, The understandable result of nine eleven and its aftermath and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

而2017年的国家安全战略指出，美国政府必须快速转向大国竞争的新时代。

And that national security strategy in 2017 indicated that the US government had to rapidly shift to a new era of superpower conflict.

其中俄罗斯作为一个崛起且具侵略性的强国，试图挑战美国及其主导地位，特别是在西方和欧洲地区；而我们必须对抗中国——这个唯一能在军事、金融、科技领域与我们抗衡的国家，如果考虑到像TikTok这样的平台，甚至可能在文化领域也是如此。

One in which Russia was a rising and aggressive power seeking to challenge The United States and its dominance, particularly in the West and in Europe, and that we had to counter China, the only country that could take us on militarily, financially, technologically, and if you think about something like TikTok, maybe even culturally.

因此2017年的那份文件基本上重新定位了美国国家安全体系的思维方向，使其开始思考如何在全球范围内应对新时代的冷战。

And so that document in 2017 basically reoriented the national security establishment of The United States toward thinking about how you would fight a new era of cold wars around the world.

这份新文件中对此有所暗示，但着墨不多。

In this document, there's a hint of that, but not very much.

它完全聚焦于不同的问题。

It focuses on entirely different issues.

旧文件花了大量篇幅讨论美国将如何应对流氓国家的威胁。

The old documents spent a lot of time on how The United States would deal with threats from rogue states.

其中有数页关于朝鲜的内容，当时该国拥有约20枚核武器并由一位反复无常的领导人统治。

There are pages on North Korea, which at the time had about 20 nuclear weapons and was run by an erratic leader.

而在这份30页的新文件中，尽管朝鲜如今核武器数量已是当时的三倍，且仍由同一位反复无常的领导人统治，却只字未提朝鲜。

In the new document, there's no mention of North Korea in the entire 30 pages, even though they now have three times as many nuclear weapons, and they're still run by the same erratic leader.

伊朗仅得到最简短的提及，且仅提到总统曾在6月份派遣隐形轰炸机摧毁了三处主要核设施。

And Iran gets only the briefest mention, and then only the mention that the president sent stealth bombers over to take out three major nuclear sites back in June.

但文件中基本没有提及如何制定战略以避免应对伊朗未来战争的后续措施。

But there's kind of no follow-up about what the strategy would be to avoid future war with Iran.

大卫，你的意思是这份文件对我们对手的直接讨论及应对策略明显减少了。

You're saying basically, David, that there's much less direct discussion here of our adversaries and how to counter them.

朝鲜在这份文件中完全没有被提及。

North Korea isn't in this document at all.

伊朗的内容也非常少。

Iran isn't there very much.

那么这份文件关注的国家安全重点是什么？

So what does this document focus on in terms of our national security concerns?

娜塔莉，文件中有大量对我们最亲密盟友欧洲的讨论和批评。

Well, Natalie, there's a lot of discussion and a lot of criticism of our closest allies, the Europeans.

我认为这份文件首先体现的是我们从上届政府任期特别是过去一年就很熟悉的观点——美国已厌倦支持盟友。

You know, I think the first thing that you see in this document is something that's pretty familiar to us all from the first term and certainly from the past year, which is that America is tired of supporting the Allies.

美国不会再容忍欧洲的贸易壁垒。

That it won't put up with Europe's trade blocks anymore.

总统曾公开表示，欧盟的建立就是为了坑害美国，美国对此深感沮丧。

That it's frustrated with the European Union, which of course the President has said was built to screw The United States.

我们不可能再无条件支持他们的常规防御。

That we can't necessarily be supporting them in their conventional defense.

文件明确表示他们必须自行承担这一责任。

And it makes clear that they have to go do that themselves.

事实上正如文件所承认的，欧洲人过去一年在这方面已取得重大进展。

Now the fact of the matter is, as the document acknowledges, the Europeans made a lot of progress in this regard over the past year.

你可能还记得，今年夏天他们曾承诺将国防开支提高到GDP的5%。

And you may remember that back over the summer, they committed to spend up to 5% of their GDP on defense.

这对特朗普总统而言是场重大胜利。

And that was a huge win for President Trump.

在我看来，这早就该实现，也是他今年取得的重要成就之一。

And in my mind, something that was really long overdue and one of the big successes that he had this year.

确实。

Right.

他们从占GDP的2%提升至现在承诺将支出高达5%。

They went from 2% of GDP to now saying they'd spend up to 5%.

这是一个巨大的增长。

It was a huge increase.

巨大的增长。

A huge increase.

其中部分用于具体国防建设。

Some of it's for concrete defense.

我认为完全可以说，他威胁退出北约并放弃欧洲确实让他们集中了注意力。

And I think it's certainly fair to say that his threat to leave NATO and to abandon Europe certainly focused their attention.

我们接下来要辩论的重点自然是：这是否也符合我们的利益，因为与欧洲保持紧密联盟能带来诸多好处——他们可作为威慑力量防止与俄罗斯及其他恶意行为者爆发战争。

The next big debate we have, of course, is whether or not it was in our interest as well, because we get a lot of benefits from a tight alliance with the Europeans who can act as a deterrent against war with Russia and other bad actors.

所以，没错，这是一次重大胜利。

So, yes, it was a big win.

但可能也伴随着某些长期代价。

It may have come at some long term cost.

但我们必须承认，特朗普总统做到了巴拉克·奥巴马、乔·拜登乃至他本人第一任期都未能实现的事——让欧洲国家迟来地开始认真对待自身防御。

But let's acknowledge that president Trump was able to do what Barack Obama and Joe Biden and Trump himself in his first term proved unable to do, which is get the Europeans belatedly to take their defense seriously.

所以从美国视角看，推动欧洲为自身防御投入更多资源显然具有积极意义。

So there's clearly an upside from The US perspective in getting Europe to kick in more for its own defense.

但尽管欧洲高度发达，其军事实力目前仍无法与美国抗衡。

But as advanced as Europe is, it can't compete with The US military power yet.

对吧？

Right?

他们需要很长时间才能将军力提升到那种水平。

It would take them a long time to build up their militaries to that point.

我在想，如果美国减少对欧洲的防御支持，是否会削弱欧洲应对其当前最大威胁——俄罗斯的能力。

And I guess I wonder if The US is retreating from supporting Europe on defense, that will make Europe less capable of countering what it sees as one of its biggest threats right now, which is Russia.

这种战略是否考虑到，若美国军事支持减弱，俄罗斯可能在对欧关系中占据上风的风险？

Does this strategy contend with the potential that Russia gains an upper hand over Europe if US military support recedes?

娜塔莉，关于俄罗斯的部分最为吊诡——它暗示欧洲人对自己构成的威胁，竟比俄罗斯对欧洲未来的威胁更大。

So, Natalie, the Russia section of this is one of the strangest because it suggests that the Europeans were a greater threat to themselves than Russia is to the future of Europe.

而这与欧洲人的看法截然相反，因为他们现在认为俄罗斯是对他们生存的威胁。

And this is the exact opposite of how the Europeans view it because they believe now that Russia is an existential threat to them.

如果在乌克兰得手，迟早会继续扩张。

And if successful in Ukraine, will just keep going sooner or later.

没错。

Right.

当然，这是一个巨大的转变。

And that is a huge shift, of course.

但这是欧洲人从美国全年动向中早已预见到的。

But it's one that the Europeans have seen coming from The US all year.

他们可能没有像在这份战略中那样白纸黑字地看到，但这绝非意外。

They may not have seen it in black and white the way they did in this strategy, but it was certainly no surprise.

但他们没有准备好的是报告第25页这段话，它谈及欧洲经济衰退，接着又讨论了改变欧洲民主本质的移民浪潮。

But what they weren't ready for was this line on page 25 of the report that talks about Europe's economic decline, but then it also discusses the waves of migration that have changed the nature of European democracies.

报告警告称，这种经济衰退正被更严峻的文明消亡前景所掩盖。

And it warns that this economic decline is eclipsed by the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure.

而这句话确实在欧洲引起了强烈共鸣。

And that's the line that really resonated in Europe.

是啊。

Yeah.

我们暂且打住，因为这句话确实掀起了轩然大波。

Let's just pause there because that line really made a lot of waves.

那么特朗普政府说欧洲正在发生'文明消亡'，这究竟是什么意思？

So what does the Trump administration mean when it says there's civilizational erasure happening in Europe?

关于如何解读这句话，一直存在巨大争议。

Well, this has been a topic of great debate about how you interpret that.

但我认为最常见的解读是，总统在说移民已经改变了德国、法国甚至英国的面貌，从根本上改变了这些欧洲盟友的本质。

But I think the most common interpretation is that the president is saying that the migration that has changed the face of Germany, of France, even of Britain, has fundamentally altered the nature of these European allies.

总统心目中的那个欧洲——他父母来自的欧洲（母亲是苏格兰移民，父亲是1880年代末德国移民到美国的第一代后裔）——几乎已经不复存在了。

And that Europe that the president came to think of, the one from which his parents emerged, his mother was a Scottish immigrant, his father was the first generation descendant of German immigrants to The United States in the late eighteen eighty's, that that Europe was almost gone.

许多人将这句话解读为一种抱怨，认为总统想象中的白人欧洲盟友正在减少。

And many read that line as a complaint that there is a diminishment of the white European allies that the president imagines when he thinks of Europe.

我认为这份文件实际上是在说欧洲正在威胁其自身的未来存在与身份认同。

And I think what this document is doing is saying Europe's threatening its own future existence and identity.

大卫，你刚才已经开始触及这一点了。

Well, you're starting to point at this, David.

但请解释一下为什么移民正在改变欧洲的人口结构乃至文化这一概念。

But just explain why this concept that migration is changing the demographic makeup of Europe and and the culture perhaps of Europe.

为什么这对特朗普政府如此重要？

Why is it important for the Trump administration?

这与美国外交政策有何关联？

Like, what does it have to do with American foreign policy?

我认为这关乎他们对具有共同价值观国家的想象——不仅是与美国价值观相同，更要与特朗普总统及其MAGA运动理念一致。

I think it has to do with their image of countries with common values, not only with The United States, but with President Trump and the MAGA movement.

去年二月JD·万斯在慕尼黑安全会议上的演讲就充斥着这种论调，当时引发轩然大波，他说你们的主要对手不是俄罗斯。

And there was a lot of this in the JD Vance speech to the Munich Security Conference last February that was such a shock, where he said, your big adversary is not Russia.

你们真正的威胁是正在改变社会结构的移民潮。

Your big adversary is the waves of migration that are changing your societies.

我认为那些将多样性视为欧洲优势与复兴力量的欧洲人，听到这种言论时确实感到震惊。

And I think the Europeans who viewed that diversity as a strength, a revitalization of Europe, we're truly shocked to hear that.

国家安全战略的整个这部分读起来就像是二月慕尼黑万斯演讲的扩展版。

And this whole section of the national security strategy reads like it is a expansion of the Vance speech in Munich in February.

我能问一下吗？

Can I just ask?

我理解当万斯提出这点时，许多欧洲人感到震惊，可能在这份文件里看到时也同样震惊。

I I understand that there were many Europeans who were shocked by this when Vance brought it up and and perhaps have been shocked by it in this document.

但事实确实如此，欧洲正经历大规模移民潮，对此存在大量不满情绪。

But it's true, right, that there has been this massive wave of migration across Europe, and there is a lot of discontent with it.

有许多人反对移民，不认为这是他们国家需要的东西。

There are a lot of people who aren't in favor of it and and don't see it as something they want in their countries.

完全正确。

That's absolutely right.

你知道，每当你在欧洲时都能感受到这点——从新闻头条、街头抗议、以及新移民与传统欧洲人之间的冲突中随处可见。

And, you know, you sense this whenever you're in Europe, you just read it in the headlines, see it in protests on the streets, see it in the clashes between these new migrants who are coming in and traditional Europeans.

因此，这份文件中特朗普论点的核心本质上是向欧洲人发出警告：你们正在忽视自己的选民，通过压制右翼、试图打压他们、拒绝让他们掌权，你们实际上是在压制言论自由。

So the core of the Trump argument in this document is basically a warning to the Europeans that you are ignoring your own voters, that you're suppressing free speech, right, by suppressing the right wing, by trying to keep them down, by refusing to allow them to take power.

对吧？

Right?

在他们看来，德国的情况确实如此。

And that's true in their minds in Germany.

在他们看来，法国的情况也确实如此。

In their minds, it's true in France.

在他们看来，甚至连英国的情况也是如此。

And in their minds, it's even true in Great Britain.

请解释为什么在特朗普政府眼中这种情况是有问题的。

And just explain why that's problematic in the eyes of the Trump administration.

对于特朗普政府来说，我认为主要有两个原因。

Well, to the Trump administration, I think there are sort of two reasons.

其公开理由是：一个如此分裂、压制选民意愿、阻止右翼崛起的欧洲，本质上是一个不稳定的欧洲——正如文件所言——无法作为一群志同道合的主权国家运作，无法在不受敌对势力主导的情况下承担自身防御的主要责任。

The stated reason is that a Europe that is divided like this, that is suppressing the will of its own voters, that's keeping the right wing from coming up, is basically an unstable Europe that can't, as the document says, operate as a group of aligned sovereign nations taking primary responsibility for their own defense without being dominated by an adversarial power.

但娜塔莉，我认为我们必须考虑到这种可能性：他们真正想要的是这些国家出现志同道合、支持MAGA的政府。

But I think we have to allow for the possibility, Natalie, that what's really going on here is they want like minded MAGA oriented governments in these nations.

他们认为当前的欧洲建制派正在阻碍这一目标的实现。

And they think the current European establishment is standing in the way of that goal.

那么特朗普政府表示他们打算如何应对这个问题呢？如果有任何计划的话？

And so what, if anything, is the Trump administration saying they're gonna do about that problem?

嗯，他们对此采取的措施表述得很模糊。

Well, they're vague about what they do about it.

文件中有这样一句话：他们的优先事项之一是在欧洲国家内部培养对当前欧洲发展轨迹的抵制。

There is this line saying that among their priorities is cultivating resistance to Europe's current trajectory within European nations.

但我们并不真正清楚这意味着什么。

But we don't really know what that means.

这是否意味着总统将支持右翼爱国候选人，就像他在美国支持共和党或MAGA倾向的州长或参议员竞选一样？

Does it mean that the president is going to endorse right wing patriotic candidates as if he was endorsing Republican or MAGA oriented governors or senators running for election in The United States?

他是否会干预他们的选举？

Would he be interfering in their elections?

他并未明确说明，除了在贸易领域——当然，他在该领域的目标表述得非常具体。

He doesn't say except in the trade arena where, of course, he's quite specific about his goals.

那么，总结一下你刚才向我们阐述的这份欧洲政策文件的主要内容。

So just to sum up what you've told us about the Europe policy that's articulated here.

这很大程度上与我们已从特朗普政府那里听到的一致，基本意思是：欧洲，你们得自己承担防务开支。

This is much of what we've seen already in the Trump administration saying, basically, Europe, you're on your own in terms of paying for your own defense.

我们不会像过去那样深度参与。

We're not gonna be as involved as we have been.

此外，文件还表达了对欧洲大规模移民和文明消亡现象的担忧。

And then you're also seeing this expressed concern over mass migration in Europe and civilizational erasure.

那么整体来看，你对此作何评价？

So what do you make of this altogether?

我们该如何解读这份文件？

How should we interpret it?

很难下定论，因为其中部分内容自相矛盾。

It's hard to tell because parts of it are contradictory.

但读完这份文件后，你会觉得美国正在为自己开辟一个例外，即介入并干预欧洲事务，以打造特朗普总统及其盟友所向往、并认为许多欧洲人也渴望的那种社会。

But you emerge from reading the document thinking that The United States is carving out an exception for itself to step in and intervene in Europe to get to the kind of society that President Trump and his allies think they want and think that many Europeans want.

然而在这种声称有权干涉欧洲内政——甚至直接接触欧洲选民——的论调中，却潜藏着一种奇怪的撤退意味，一种美国整体上正在远离欧洲的强烈感觉。

And yet buried in this assertion of a right to interfere with Europe's internal politics, even directly engaging with European voters, there's this sort of strange undertone of retreat, a real sense that overall The US is turning away from Europe.

于是问题就变成了：如果美国正在从我们传统的欧洲盟友那里撤退，那我们将转向何方？

And so then the question becomes, if The US is retreating from our traditional European allies, where are we turning?

过去十年来，欧洲人一直担心美国正在转向亚洲，关注中国、日本和韩国这些蓬勃发展的经济体。

Well, for the past decade, the Europeans have been worried that The US is turning to Asia, that it's focusing on China and Japan and South Korea, the booming economies.

但这份文件表明，美国准备再次将注意力转向我们自己的地区，聚焦于我们的后院。

But what this document says is that The US is ready once again to turn its attention to our own region, to focus on our own backyard.

我们稍后回来。

We'll be right back.

你好。

Hi.

我是索拉娜·派恩。

I'm Solana Pine.

我是《纽约时报》的视频总监。

I'm the director of video at The New York Times.

多年来，我的团队制作了带您近距离接触重大新闻时刻的视频。

For years, my team has made videos that bring you closer to big news moments.

这些由《纽约时报》记者制作的视频，凭借专业知识和培训帮助您理解时事。

Videos by Times journalists that have the expertise and training to help you understand what's going on.

您可能在社交媒体上或浏览《纽约时报》时见过这些内容。

You might have seen these on social media or browsing The New York Times.

现在我们将这些视频带到《纽约时报》应用的'观看'标签页中。

Now we're bringing those videos to you in the watch tab in The New York Times app.

这是一个专属视频流，您能确信所看到的内容真实可靠。

It's a dedicated video feed where you know you can trust what you're seeing.

所有视频均可免费观看。

All the videos there are free for for anyone to watch.

无需订阅即可观看。

You don't have to be a subscriber.

从您喜爱的应用商店下载《纽约时报》应用，即刻开始观看。

Download the New York Times app from your favorite app store to start watching.

如果您更偏爱音频内容，我们还设有专门的‘收听’标签页。

And if you're more of an audio person, there's a listen tab too.

大卫，在休息之前，你提到这份文件明确指出我们的后院如今已成为美国外交政策的焦点。

David, before the break, you said that this document articulates that our backyard is now the focus of America's foreign policy.

那么特朗普政府究竟想在我们的后院做什么？他们又如何界定‘我们的后院’？

So what exactly does the Trump administration wanna do in our backyard, and how does it define our backyard?

娜塔莉，让我们先回答第二个问题，因为你提到的这位总统毕生都是房地产大亨。

Well, let's start with the second question first, Natalie, because you're talking about a president who spent his life as a real estate mogul.

而他心目中的这块‘地产’范围相当广阔。

And the real estate he has in mind here is pretty big.

从加拿大一直延伸到格陵兰岛。

It goes from Canada over to Greenland.

向南穿过新命名的‘美洲湾’，经巴拿马运河——他总说我们本不该放弃它——直至阿根廷最南端。

It runs down through the newly named Gulf Of America, through the Panama Canal, which of course he said we never should have given away, all the way down to the tip of Argentina.

总统的理念是美国应在西半球拥有绝对且完全的支配地位。

And the president's idea here is that The United States should have complete and total dominance of the Western Hemisphere.

而且

And

因此总统在这份文件中主张我们应回归并扩展门罗主义。

so the president advocates in this document that we return to and expand on the Monroe Doctrine.

虽然可能会让一些听众因试图回忆高中历史而瑟瑟发抖

Now at the risk of making some of our listeners shake in fear as they try to recall eleventh grade history

对。

Yeah.

我们来快速回顾要点吧。

Let's get the spark notes.

没问题。

Absolutely.

我们这就把资料递给你，娜塔莉。

We're slipping you the copy right now, Natalie.

门罗主义可追溯至1823年，它宣称西半球实质上将不对欧洲殖民开放。

The Monroe Doctrine, which dates back to 1823, declared that the Western Hemisphere would essentially be closed to European colonization.

欧洲人必须远离我们的领土，这对一个建国仅45年、当时几乎没有什么海军的国家来说，是相当大胆的宣言。

The Europeans had to stay out of our territory, which was a pretty bold thing to say for a country that was about 45 years old and barely had a navy at the time.

对吧？

Right?

但在接下来的两百年里，我们既扩展了门罗主义，又从中有所退却。

But over the following two hundred years, we both expanded from and retreated from the Monroe Doctrine.

怎么说？

How so?

1905年西奥多·罗斯福对该主义发布了罗斯福推论，大意是说如果我们看到拉丁美洲出现不合我们心意的政府，我们保留干预的权利？

Well, Teddy Roosevelt in nineteen o five issued a Roosevelt corollary to this doctrine that basically said, we reserve the right to intervene in Latin America if we see governments that are coming together that are not to our liking?

而我们确实这么做了。

And we did exactly that.

对吧？

Right?

我们介入了哥伦比亚的内乱，最终获得了巴拿马运河的控制权。

We got involved in a civil uprising in Colombia, and we ended up with the Panama Canal.

我是说，我们采取了一系列行动，直到1950年代中情局还在该地区策划政变。

I mean, we did a whole bunch of actions up through the 1950s when the CIA was conducting coups in the region.

但后来我们暂时转移了注意力。

But then we turned away for a bit.

我们经历了冷战。

We had the Cold War.

我们见证了苏联解体。

We had the collapse of the Soviet Union.

我们遭遇了911事件。

We had nineeleven.

随着中国崛起，我们开始认为真正需要集中力量的是印太地区。

And we began to think, as China rose, that it's really in the Indo Pacific that we needed to concentrate our forces.

这份文件要表达的是：现在是时候重返本土，重新聚焦我们的家园区域了。

What this document is saying is, it's time to come home again, and to focus on our home region.

而且

And

当你阅读这份实际文件时，总统谈到要在门罗主义基础上构建，并为其添加某种特朗普式的推论。

when you read the actual document, the president talks about building on the Monroe Doctrine and creating a sort of Trump corollary to it.

文件传达的意思是：我们将控制进入该地区的通道。

What it's saying is we are going to control access to the region.

我们将阻止毒品流入该地区。

We're going to stop drugs to the region.

我们将确保你们在该地区看到美军的存在。

And we're going to make sure that you see the US military in the region.

这份文件在这里比30页中几乎任何其他地方都更加具体。

And here's where the document gets more specific than in almost any other place in the 30 pages.

其中有一页写道，我们将重新调整全球军事部署，以应对我们所在半球面临的这些紧迫威胁，因为我们就生活在这里。

There's a page where it says, we're going to readjust our global military presence to address these urgent threats in our own hemisphere because we live here.

这听起来可能不是什么重大决定，但我们历任美国总统，无论是民主党还是共和党，都曾表示要聚焦印太地区，因为那里是我们的未来所在，是我们的贸易重心，是中国和印度的所在地。

Well, that may not sound like a big decision, but we've had a succession of American presidents, Democrats, Republicans alike, who have said, we are going to go focus on the Indo Pacific because that's where our future is, that's where our trade is, that's where China and India are.

对吧？

Right?

因此，这基本上会在资源有限的世界中叫停此类扩张，并将这些军事力量调回国内。

So this would basically put a halt to that kind of expansion in a world of limited resources and bring those forces back home.

文件指出，我们将设计更合适的海岸警卫队和海军部署来控制海上航道。

It says that we're going to design a more suitable coast guard and navy presence to control sea lanes.

文件称我们将打击贩毒集团，并在边境部署人员执行此任务。

It says we're going to defeat cartels and put people at the border to do that.

在必要时，将使用致命武力来取代过去几十年仅靠执法手段的失败策略。

And where necessary, the use of lethal force to replace the failed law enforcement only strategy of the last several decades.

所以这实际上是为美军在加勒比海域击沉船只、击毙疑似毒贩的行为提供了事后的正当理由或依据。

So what it does is essentially give a retroactive justification or rationale for what we've seen with the US military sinking these boats in The Caribbean and and killing alleged drug runners.

没错。

That's right.

这是在为他一直想做且已在实施的事情提供战略依据。

It's giving a strategic rationale for things he has wanted to do and is doing anyway.

但这甚至不止于此，娜塔莉，因为文件中有部分明确表示，为确保这一策略奏效，我们将把其他势力逐出我们的区域。

But it even goes beyond that, Natalie, because there are sections of it that explicitly say that to make this work, we're gonna kick other powers out of our region.

而这‘其他势力’的暗指就是中国。

And that's code word for China.

因为过去，娜塔莉，当美国将注意力从西半球移开，聚焦于中国和印太地区时，讽刺的是中国正进军拉丁美洲，并在经济上取得了巨大进展。

Because in the past, Natalie, when The US turned its attention away from the Western Hemisphere, when its focus was on China and the Indo Pacific, the irony is that the Chinese were moving into Latin America and really made huge inroads there economically.

这使得文件没有明确将中国列为该地区的主要参与者显得更加奇怪。

And that makes it all the stranger that the document doesn't really name China specifically as the big player in the region.

关于为何如此还存在一些争论。

And there's been some debate about why that is.

有人认为这是财政部长斯科特·贝松的斡旋结果，他正试图与中国协商贸易协议。

Some people think it was the work of Scott Besson, the treasury secretary, who's trying to negotiate trade deals with China.

他不想在特朗普总统四月访华前特别激怒中方。

He doesn't wanna particularly anger them before president Trump's scheduled visit to Beijing in April.

但这无疑表明美国打算驱逐任何它认为不该存在于该区域的势力。

But what it certainly does is it suggests The US is going to boot out anybody who it thinks shouldn't be there.

将中国赶出拉丁美洲实际上意味着什么？

And what does it actually mean to kick China out of Latin America?

在某些情况下，总统宣称他希望中国企业从巴拿马运河等地区实体撤离——他夸大了中国军方在那里的控制力，而实际上中国在当地几乎没有军事存在。

Well, in some cases, the president has declared he wants Chinese companies physically out of, say, the Panama Canal, where he exaggerated the control of the Chinese military, which has very little presence there.

但他真正的意图是通过扩大美国经济影响力，确保该地区所有人都购买美国产品并使用美国操作系统，从而从根本上排挤中国及其他竞争对手。

But what he really means is that by expanding the American economic presence, by making sure that everyone in the region buys American products and runs on American operating systems, that basically he would squeeze out the Chinese and other competitors.

当然，如果你在拉丁美洲旅行，

And of course, you travel in Latin America.

会看到什么？

What do you see?

你会看到华为手机。

You see Huawei phones.

会看到中国的5G网络。

You see Chinese five g networks.

我认为总统正是希望在这些领域用美国的硬件和软件来取代它们。

And it's those areas where I think the president wants to get that replaced with American hardware and software.

大卫，我们暂且退一步思考，你能帮我理解一下，，这种新展现的门罗主义姿态——我们将在拉丁美洲进行新的军事部署，与我们最初对'美国优先'的理解是否相悖？许多人原本认为这是孤立主义政策。

David, just to step back here for a moment, can you help me understand how the taking up of the Monroe Doctrine, this new muscular posture that we're gonna be taking in Latin America with new military deployments, Isn't that out of step with the original understanding that I think a lot of us had of America first as this policy of isolationism?

在MAGA阵营内部，关于孤立主义与干预主义之间确实存在分歧。

There is certainly a split in MAGA world about isolationism and interventionism.

总统的许多追随者希望在美国大陆周围筑起高墙，或许把夏威夷和阿拉斯加也圈进来，然后基本上宣告他们**

And there are a lot of the President's followers who would like to just build big walls around the Continental United States, maybe include Hawaii and Alaska in that, and basically say, everybody stay away and we're not gonna mess in your business.

我们看到MAGA成员曾反对打击伊朗核设施。

You saw MAGA members who were opposed to taking out the nuclear facilities in Iran.

总统基本上让他们闭嘴坐下，然后轰炸完就回家了。

The president basically told them to sit down and shut up while he bombed them and then came home.

但我们在拉丁美洲讨论的议题正在撕裂MAGA阵营，因为他们从船只冲突中，从总统本周重申可能发动地面打击的承诺中看到，我们可能在自己后院陷入永无止境的战争。

But what we're discussing in Latin America is really pulling MAGA apart here because they see in our conflicts over the boats, in the president's promise repeated just this week that there would be land strikes, that we could end up in forever wars in our own neighborhood.

那么对特朗普来说，这样做值得吗？

So what makes this worth it to Trump?

就像你说的，为什么要冒着撕裂MAGA阵营的风险来做这件事？

Like, why risk pulling MAGA apart, as you said, over this?

美国以这种极具侵略性的方式重新宣示其主导地位，究竟能获得什么实际利益？

What does The US actually get out of reasserting its dominance in this really aggressive way?

嗯，我们可能获得的其中一种结果，就是形成一种势力范围式的世界格局，这种格局自19世纪末以来就未曾真正出现过。

Well, one possibility of what we get out of it is basically a spheres of influence kind of organization of the world, something we haven't really seen since the late eighteen hundreds.

在这种格局下，美国主导自己的领土，中国主导太平洋地区，而欧洲则由欧洲人自己主导。

This is a world in which The United States dominates its own territory, that China dominates the Pacific, and that the Europeans dominate Europe.

但如果他们不能团结一致，或许欧洲将由弗拉基米尔·普京主导。

But if they don't get their act together, maybe Vladimir Putin dominates Europe.

这实质上确立了我们各自瓜分全球版图，并默认将其他势力范围视为对方问题的原则。

It establishes essentially that we each carve up the globe and sort of respect the other territories as the other guy's problem.

当然，这种愿景与另一位世界领袖对全球格局的构想不谋而合。

And, of course, this is a vision that coincides with another world leader's idea of how the globe should be organized.

那就是普京本人，他经常谈论势力范围式的世界格局。

And that's Putin himself, who has frequently talked about the spheres of influence kind of organization of the world.

但宣布势力范围与'美国优先'政策如何能自圆其说？

But how is declaring a sphere of influence coherent with America first?

我是说，你可以理解让世界自生自灭的做法与孤立主义者看待世界的方式是一致的。

I mean, you could see how leaving the rest of the world to its own devices jives with an isolationist's view of how to engage with the world.

但请帮我理清宣称美国对全球大片区域拥有主导权的内在逻辑。

But help me make sense of the internal logic of declaring American predominance over an entire swath of the globe.

我认为这正是'美国优先'主义逐渐演变为'美国的优先'的体现。

I think this is where we see the America first doctrine becoming something closer to America's first.

带个's'。

With an s.

'美国的'要加's'。

America's with an s.

他将该地区视为美利坚合众国的附属地。

That he views the region as basically the subsidiary of The United States.

而且，你知道，我曾随特朗普总统出访。

And, you know, I've traveled with President Trump.

自从我从驻外记者生涯回到华盛顿后，已经报道过五位美国总统。

I've covered five American presidents since I got back to Washington from my life as a foreign correspondent.

我的看法是，特朗普实际上并非孤立主义者。

And my takeaway is that Trump is really not an isolationist.

他从来都不是。

He never has been.

他更像是一个单边主义者。

He's actually more of a unilateralist.

你这话是什么意思？

What do you mean by that?

嗯，他想要完全的行动自由。

Well, he wants the total freedom of action.

他知道自己其实对民主推广并不感兴趣。

He knows that he is not really interested in democracy promotion.

他清楚自己想要把经济与经济发展置于一切之上。

He knows that he wants to prioritize economics and economic development over everything.

即使这些经济利益未必能为美国带来安全保障。

Even if those economics don't necessarily come with security benefits to The US.

但我认为这份战略真正值得注意的是，它并未将我们传统的对手——中国和俄罗斯（主要是中国）——定性为全球战略挑战者，更不用说对美国构成威胁了。

But I also think that what's really notable about this strategy is that it doesn't cast our traditional adversaries, China and Russia, but mostly China, as global strategic challengers, much less a threat to The US.

因此人们可能会从这些文件中得出，欧洲的困境对美国构成的威胁比上述任何国家都大。

So one would think from these documents that Europe's troubles pose a greater threat to The US than any of the above.

大卫，我们一直在讨论这份文件是美国外交政策的一次重大转向和重新定位。

David, we've been talking about this document as a major pivot and a reorientation of American foreign policy.

但作为一个长期报道美国领导人和全球行动的记者，我不得不问：我们在此看到的这种转变能持续多久？

But I have to ask, as someone who has spent so much time covering American leaders and American actions across the globe, how enduring is the shift that we're seeing represented here?

它会延续到本届总统任期之后吗？

Does it last beyond this president?

我能想到最贴切的类比就是特朗普与白宫本身的关系。

The closest analogy I can make is Trump and the White House itself.

下一任总统可以上任后铲掉椭圆形办公室墙上的所有金箔，把玫瑰园重新铺上草皮。

The next president can come in and scrape all the gold off of the Oval Office walls and put turf back down in the Rose Garden.

但无论继任者是谁，都无法重建东翼。

But whoever it is, is not going to be able to go rebuild the East Wing.

那里会有一个舞厅，你们必须学会与之共存或喜欢它。

There's gonna be a ballroom and you're gonna have to learn how to live with it or like it.

我猜测这位总统的外交政策将会产生类似的影响。

And my guess is that the foreign policy of this president is going to have a similar effect.

此时此刻，世界将会认为美国总是有能力重新转向内顾，而世界每个地区甚至我们的盟友都必须学会依靠自己。

That at this point, the world is going to assume that The United States always has the ability to turn back in on itself and that each region of the world and even our allies are going to have to learn to depend on themselves.

我认为无论下一任总统是谁，在未来一代人的时间里，我们都无法让他们相信美国会永远与他们同在。

And I don't think that there is anything we can do over the next generation, no matter who becomes elected president, to make them believe that The US is always going to be with them.

我认为美国作为西方某些理念捍卫者的基本信任已经破裂相当一段时间了。

I think the fundamental trust in The US as the defender of a certain set of concepts of the West has been shattered for some time.

大卫，非常感谢你。

David, thanks so much.

谢谢你，娜塔莉。

Thank you, Natalie.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

以下是今天你需要了解的其他内容。

Here's what else you need to know today.

这是参议院今年将进行的最重要投票之一。

This is one of the most consequential votes this senate will take all year.

通过对参议院书记官投赞成或反对票，参议员们将决定人们的生死。

By saying yay or nay to the clerk of the senate, senators will decide whether people live or people die.

参议员们将

Senators will

周四下午，参议院共和党人阻止了一项民主党延长联邦医疗补贴的法案，几乎可以肯定数百万美国人的保险费用将在年底前大幅上涨。

On Thursday afternoon, senate Republicans blocked a democratic bill to extend federal health care subsidies, making it all but certain that insurance costs will surge for millions of Americans by the end of the year.

该法案本可将《平价医疗法案》的补贴延长三年，这是民主党人的战斗口号，也是他们关闭政府43天的核心动机。

The bill would have extended the subsidies for the Affordable Care Act by three years, a rallying cry for Democrats and their central motivation for shutting down the government for forty three days.

但即使有四名共和党参议员支持该措施，民主党仍未能获得通过所需的60票。

But even with four Senate Republicans backing the measure, Democrats fell short of the 60 votes they needed to pass it.

特朗普总统签署了一项行政命令，试图阻止各州执行监管人工智能行业的法律。

And president Trump signed an executive order that seeks to block states from enforcing laws that regulate the artificial intelligence industry.

大型科技公司的一次胜利，使得数十项人工智能安全与消费者保护法律面临风险。

A win for big tech that puts dozens of AI safety and consumer protection laws at risk.

该行政命令赋予司法部长广泛权力，可推翻那些不支持所谓'美国在全球AI领域主导地位'的法律。

The order gives the attorney general broad authority to overturn laws that don't support the, quote, United States' global AI dominance.

主导地位。

Dominance.

特朗普指示联邦监管机构，若各州维持现有法律，将停止对宽带及其他项目的资金支持。

If states keep their laws in place, Trump directed federal regulators to withhold funds for broadband and other projects.

最后，特朗普遭遇重大挫败：印第安纳州的共和党州议员否决了白宫要求的新国会选区划分方案，该方案本会使民主党更难赢得该州任何国会席位。

Finally, in a stinging defeat for Trump, Republican state lawmakers in Indiana have rejected a new congressional map ordered up by the White House that would have made it harder for Democrats to win any congressional seats in the state.

投票反对新选区划分方案的共和党议员表示，这会削弱民众对政府的信任，并警告特朗普不应插手该州政治。

The Republican lawmakers who voted against the new map said that it would undermine people's faith in government and warned Trump that he should stay out of the state's politics.

本期节目由奥利维亚·纳特和安娜·弗利制作。

Today's episode was produced by Olivia Nat and Anna Foley.

由玛丽亚·伯恩和莉佐·巴林编辑，佩奇·考威特协助完成。

It was edited by Maria Byrne and Lizzo Balin with help from Paige Cowet.

音乐由Alicia Beitoupe和Marion Lozano创作，Chris Wood负责音频工程。

Contains music by Alicia Beitoupe and Marion Lozano and was engineered by Chris Wood.

以上就是本期《每日新闻》的全部内容。

That's it for The Daily.

我是Natalie Kitroef。

I'm Natalie Kitroef.

周一见。

See you Monday.