特朗普称经济状况良好，真的吗？

我给我弟弟订了一份《纽约时报》的订阅。

I gave my brother a New York Times subscription.

我们会交换文章。

We exchange articles.

因此，读了同一篇文章后，我们可以一起讨论。

And so having read the same article, we can discuss it.

她送了我一年的订阅，这样我就能访问所有内容了。

She sent me a year long subscription so I have access to all the games.

《纽约时报》丰富了我们共度的时光。

The New York Times contributes to our quality time together.

它增进了我们的关系。

It enriches our relationship.

这真是一个

It was such a

很酷又贴心的礼物。

a cool and thoughtful gift.

我们在读同样的东西。

We're reading the same stuff.

我们在做同样的食物。

We're making the same food.

我们想法一致。

We're on the same page.

了解更多关于将《纽约时报》订阅作为礼物的信息，请访问 nytimes.com/gift。

Learn more about giving a New York Times subscription as a gift at nytimes.com/gift.

来自《纽约时报》，我是娜塔莉·基托夫。

From the New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitroef.

这是《每日新闻》。

This is the daily.

一项新民调显示，对特朗普总统经济处理方式不满的美国人比以往任何时候都多。

A new poll shows more Americans than ever disapprove of president Trump's handling of the economy.

本周，所有人的目光都聚焦在经济上。

This week, all eyes have been on the economy.

我和我丈夫刚离开杂货店。

Me and my husband just left the grocery store.

所有东西的价格都涨了一倍。

Everything has just went up double.

这太疯狂了。

This is getting crazy.

我们连买杂货都负担不起了。

We can't even afford groceries anymore.

付房子20%的首付，是一大笔钱。

To put 20% down on our house, that's a lot of money.

即使我上双倍班也做不到。

Even I can't do it working double shifts.

我70岁了。

I'm 70 years old.

我负担不起退休。

I cannot afford to retire.

随着对可负担能力的担忧加剧，特朗普总统努力安抚美国民众。

With anxieties over affordability building, president Trump made a push to reassure Americans.

最新就业报告显示，失业率上升至4.6%，美国劳动力市场进一步显现降温迹象。

The US labor market is showing further signs of cooling as the latest jobs report shows unemployment rising to 4.6%.

就在政府发布了一份备受期待的数据，引发人们对国家经济健康状况的新疑问之际。

Just as the government released long awaited data that raised new questions about the economic health of the nation.

今天，我的同事托尼·罗姆将探讨特朗普如何试图掌控这一已成为他最大政治弱点的问题。

Today, my colleagues Tony Rom on how Trump is trying to take control of the issue that's become his biggest political vulnerability, vulnerability.

本·卡斯曼曼谈最新数据，揭示人们为何仍如此沮丧。

And Ben Casselman on what the latest numbers tell us about why people are still so frustrated.

今天是12月19日，星期五。

It's Friday, December 19.

欢迎回到节目，托尼。

Welcome back to the show, Tony.

很高兴你能来。

It's great to have you.

嘿。

Hey.

谢谢你的邀请。

Thanks for having me.

最近人们非常关注经济问题，尤其是在11月大选后，选民明确表示，负担能力是他们的一大关切，他们对此感到压力和焦虑。

There's been a lot of focus on the economy recently, especially since the November election when voters made it very clear that affordability was a major concern for them, that they were stressed and anxious about it.

在过去几周里，我们看到政府频繁就这些担忧发表言论，包括特朗普在周三发表的全国讲话。

And for the past few weeks, we've seen the administration go out and talk a lot about these concerns, including in an address to the nation by Trump on Wednesday.

所以，托尼，请详细说说特朗普及其盟友究竟在说什么。

So please, Tony, walk us through what exactly Trump and his allies are saying.

嗯。

Yeah.

这实际上是特朗普试图重新掌握关于负担能力的叙事话语权。

This is really an attempt by president Trump to try to reclaim the narrative on affordability.

这一切之所以现在发生，是因为选民越来越对特朗普处理经济的方式感到沮丧，也对物价持续居高不下感到不满。

And this is all happening right now because voters increasingly report that they're frustrated with president Trump's handling of the economy, and they're frustrated with the fact that prices continue to remain so stubbornly high.

在过去的几周里，我们看到特朗普总统开始外出推销他的经济议程。

And so within the last couple weeks, we've seen president Trump start to hit the road to sell his economic agenda.

我只是想向宾夕法尼亚问好，很高兴能回来。

I just wanna say hello, Pennsylvania, and I'm thrilled to be back.

这些活动中的第一场发生在12月9日，总统前往宾夕法尼亚州——一个重要的选举战场，试图向选民阐述他为降低物价和创造就业所做的一切。

The first of those appearances came on December 9 when the president traveled to Pennsylvania, an important electoral battleground, to try to talk to voters about the work that he has done to bring down prices and to boost jobs.

这场演讲持续了一个多小时，总统谈到了许多与经济无关的话题，包括风力发电机、跨性别者，甚至他与费城老鹰队跑卫萨昆·巴克利的关系。

The speech ended up lasting more than an hour, and it saw the president touch on many topics far outside the context of the economy, including windmills and transgender people and even his relationship with the Philadelphia Eagles running back, Saquon Barkley.

顺便说一句，如果我照着提词器念，你们现在都会睡着了。

By the way, if I read for it's on the teleprompter, you'd all be falling asleep right now.

总统很难紧扣主题。

The president had a really hard time saying on message.

你知道，因为我喜欢这种发型。

You know, because I love the weave.

这种发型。

The weave.

你知道什么是发套吗？

You know what the weave is?

你去这个地方。

You go here.

叮。

Bing.

叮。

Bing.

叮。

Bing.

你总是得回到正确的位置。

You always have to get back to the right location.

现在，特朗普总统在演讲中多次谈到了经济问题。

Now president Trump did turn to the economy several times during his speech.

关于可负担性问题

And on the issue of affordability

他们有了一个新词。

They have a new word.

你知道，他们总是搞骗局。

You know, they always have a hoax.

这个新词就是可负担性。

The new word is affordability.

他称这是一场骗局。

He called it a hoax.

所以他们看着镜头说，这个方向完全关乎可负担性。

So they look at the camera and they say, this direction is all about affordability.

这正是总统在过去几周一再强调的，试图转移人们对物价在他执政期间持续高企这一事实的注意力。

Which is something the president has said repeatedly in recent weeks as he tries to deflect attention on the fact that prices continue to remain high even under his leadership.

他甚至说，如果人们想避开高价，就应该少买玩偶和铅笔。

He even said that people should purchase fewer dolls and fewer pencils if they're looking to get away from higher prices.

听起来总统的演讲整体上相当缺乏条理，而且他试图通过坚持问题根本不存在来让这个问题消失。

It sounds like the speech was overall pretty undisciplined by the president, and it was also him kinda trying to make this problem go away by insisting it doesn't even exist.

没什么可看的。

Like, nothing to see here.

是的。

Yeah.

这一直是白宫的策略。

That's been the strategy of the White House.

这实际上一直是转移注意力的策略，因此令人惊讶的是，就在几天后的周三晚上，特朗普总统站出来向全国发表讲话，试图更有力地论证为什么经济状况良好，以及为什么他的政策奏效。

It's really been to deflect, which is what made it so remarkable that just days later on Wednesday night, president Trump gets up in front of the nation and tries to make his more forceful case for why the economy is in good shape and why his policies are working.

十一个月前，我接手了一个烂摊子，现在我正在修复它。

Eleven months ago, I inherited a mess, and I'm fixing it.

因此，我们从总统那里得到的是一场大约十八分钟的演讲，他更加简洁明了，更直接地谈到了经济问题。

And so what we got from the president was a roughly eighteen minute speech in which he was more concise and spoke more to the issues of the economy.

他提到了很多数据，但其中一些数据被夸大或不准确，目的是让他的经济业绩看起来比实际情况更好。

He brought up a lot of data, but some of that data was exaggerated or incorrect to make his record look better than it actually was in the economy.

我上任时，通胀率达到了四十八年来最严重的水平，有些人甚至说是美国历史上最严重的，导致物价创下历史新高，使数百万美国人生活难以为继。

When I took office, inflation was the worst in forty eight years, and some would say in the history of our country, which caused prices to be higher than ever before, making life unaffordable for millions and millions of Americans.

总统出来表示，他已做了大量工作，试图扭转拜登政府时期出现的通胀，并称其政府的努力需要时间，但已带来工资上涨和数百万美国人的物价下降。

The president comes out and says that he has done extensive work to try to undo the inflation that we saw during the Biden administration and said that the work of his administration was going to take time, but had already resulted in rising wages and in lower prices for millions of Americans.

今晚，经过十一个月，我们的边境已安全，通胀已停止，工资上涨，物价下降，我们的国家强大，美国受人尊重，我们的国家比以往任何时候都更强大。

Tonight, after eleven months, our border is secure, inflation has stopped, wages are up, prices are down, our nation is strong, America is respected, and our country is back stronger than ever before.

我们正 poised 迎来一场世界前所未有的经济繁荣。

We're poised for an economic boom the likes of which the world has never seen.

他表示，很快将推出一项全新政策，旨在降低住房成本。

He said that he was going to have a whole new policy coming soon meant to help lower housing costs.

他谈到了如何努力同样降低医疗成本，并吹捧了近期在药品定价方面的一些工作。

He talked about how he was going to try to do the same thing with health care costs and had touted some recent work with respect to drug pricing.

或许最重要的是，总统放弃了将可负担性称为骗局的说法。

And perhaps most importantly, the president ditched the language where he was calling affordability a hoax.

他不再像几天前那样，完全否定生活成本问题。

He wasn't in the position that he was only days earlier where he was dismissing the whole issue of cost of living outright.

你觉得呢，托尼？他放弃使用‘骗局’这个词意味着什么？

And what do you make of that, Tony, that he drops the hoax language?

你认为这是他意识到这种说法行不通的迹象吗？

Do you think it's a sign that he's realizing that is not gonna work?

人们不会相信这是一场骗局，因为这是他们每天都在经历的现实吗？

People are not gonna buy that this is a hoax because it's something they're actually living every day?

你知道，这可能是白宫在经济宣传上略有转变的迹象，因为他们意识到人们真的很讨厌被告诉事情比实际情况更好。

You know, it might be a sign that the White House's messaging is shifting a little bit on the economy as it recognizes that people really don't like being told that things are better than they are.

但这里的基本原则是，总统相信他的政策正在发挥作用，像关税这样的措施并没有导致价格上涨。

But the underlying principle here is that the president believes his policies are working and that things like tariffs, for example, aren't causing prices to rise.

而这种理念并没有改变。

And that philosophy hasn't changed.

因此，尽管他们谈论这些问题的方式可能因公众意见而正在变化，但指导他们行动的政策在很大程度上保持了完全一致。

And so while the way they're talking about it might be shifting right now because of public opinion, the policies that inform what they're doing have stayed the exact same for the most part.

他们一直告诉人们再耐心等待一下，他们的全部议程将开始产生影响，尤其是在明年初。

They have told people to just hang tight and that the full weight of their agenda will start to take effect, especially into early next year.

到那时，人们将开始看到缓解的迹象，比如更多就业机会和更高的薪酬等等。

And that's when people will start to see relief in the form of more jobs and bigger paychecks and so forth.

而他们要求更多时间，究竟是想用这段时间做什么呢？

And the give us more time request, like, what are they actually asking for the time to do?

明年会发生什么，可能让人们对此有不同的看法？

What's supposed to be happening next year that may help people feel differently in their estimation?

这一切很大程度上取决于总统今年夏天国会通过的庞大减税计划的实施。

So much of this rests on the implementation of the president's sprawling set of tax cuts that congress adopted this summer.

那时人们可能会开始看到总统最近几周所吹嘘的一些好处，这些好处通常会以两种形式出现。

That's when people may start to see some of the benefits that the president has touted in recent weeks, and that'll happen generally in two forms.

第一，人们会看到更大的退税，因为减税方案中包含了许多优惠，这些优惠将扩大某些美国人（如老年人）在报税时能获得的金额。

The first is that people are are going to see bigger tax refunds because there are a number of perks in that tax cut package that will expand how much certain Americans like seniors will receive when they file their taxes.

因此，这将是一笔可观的现金收入。

And so that's gonna be a chunk of cash that people get.

这确实是事实。

So that's actually true.

这种情况会发生。

That will happen.

这确实会发生。

That will happen.

但具体发生多少，将因申报人的类型而异，但人们会看到更大的退税。

Now the amount that that happens will vary depending on the kind of person that files, but people will see larger tax refunds.

你知道，特朗普政府也没有更新用于确定全年从工资中扣除多少联邦税的表格。

You know, the Trump administration also did not update the tables that determine how much is taken out of your paycheck throughout the year for federal taxes.

因此，由于过去夏天国会通过的法案未在工资中相应调整，2026年的退税将会更大。

So refunds will be larger in 2026 because of that, because people's paychecks were not adjusted in a way to reflect the work that congress did wrapping up this past summer.

明白了。

Got

嗯。

it.

除此之外，我认为政府认为，这项税法的实施以及他们在贸易等领域的持续努力，将推动企业在美国加大投资，从而带来更多的招聘和国内生产。

And then beyond that, I think the administration believes that the implementation of that tax law and the work that they're continuing to do in areas like trade will boost the work of companies to invest here in The United States, meaning more hiring and more domestic production.

这意味着建筑和制造业等领域将出现更多机会。

And And that means more opportunities in areas like construction and manufacturing.

因此，政府表示，由于向经济注入了大量资金以刺激增长，特别是通过其税法，美国预计明年将实现显著增长。

And that's why the administration says that it believes that The United States is on track to see some significant growth next year because of all of the money it's pumping into the economy to stimulate that growth, particularly in the form of its tax law.

这听起来对个人和企业都可能意义重大：个人会收到这种以更大退税形式出现的刺激金，而企业如果能将这些节省的资金用于招聘或扩张，也会受益。

And it sounds like that could actually be quite meaningful, both for individuals who get, you know, this version of a stimulus check-in the form of a bigger tax refund, and for businesses if they are able to channel some of those savings into hiring or growth.

政府在2026年还寄希望于哪些其他措施？

What else is the administration banking on in 2026?

是的。

Yeah.

总统已经连续几周表示，计划向美国人发放高达2000美元的退税支票，资金来源于美国在总统贸易战争中征收的关税收入。

The president has talked for weeks about sending perhaps $2,000 rebate checks to Americans funded through the tariffs that The United States has collected as part of the president's trade war.

等一下。

Hold on.

这具体是怎么运作的？

How exactly would that work?

是的。

Yeah.

嗯，我想这也是我们在问的问题。

Well, I think that's the question we're asking too.

你知道，政府表示这笔款项大约是2000美元，将发放给年收入低于10万美元的美国人，但这就是我们从白宫得到的全部信息。

You know, the the administration has said that it will be about a $2,000 check and that it would go to Americans who make under a $100,000, but that's all we have gotten from the White House.

总统从大约今年七月就开始谈论这个想法，但他们还没有真正制定出具体的政策。

The president has talked about this since about July or so, but they haven't really put pen to paper on a policy.

而且，即便如此，国会中仍有一些共和党人对这一想法感到担忧，并不十分支持。

And even on top of all that, there are some Republicans in congress who are a little bit worried about that idea and aren't super supportive of it.

但总统一直将此视为2026年可能让美国人手中多些钱的举措之一，尽管这可能会加剧他们试图解决的通胀问题。

But the president has talked about it as one of the things that might put money in the hands of Americans in 2026, even though that could potentially worsen the problem of inflation that they're trying to resolve.

这一想法是，理论上，这笔款项可以抵消人们因关税而支付的更高成本。

The idea is that this check, in theory, would potentially offset the higher costs that people are paying because of his tariffs.

这几乎像是在重新包装关税，告诉人们：看，你们从这里面得到了好处。

It almost sounds like a way of kind of rebranding tariffs by saying to people, look, you get something out of this.

是的。

Yeah.

你用这个说法很有趣，因为总统自己的助手们有时也这样描述过。

It's interesting you use that phrasing because the president's own aides have sometimes framed it that way themselves.

他们表示，这可能是让美国人明白关税对美国政府如此有利的一种方式。

They have said that this is the sort of thing that might help show Americans why tariffs are so rewarding for the US government.

但你说得对。

But you're right.

共和党人对这一举措并没有表现出太多支持，而且目前尚不清楚美国政府是否能够实施，因为总统的关税目前还存在法律问题。

Republicans haven't expressed a great deal of support for this, and it also remains unclear if the United States government can do this just given the legal issues that surround the president's tariffs right now.

托尼，我注意到你所描述的白宫的沟通方式，本质上是在告诉人们再坚持一下。

I'm struck, Tony, that the messaging that you're describing from the White House, it is essentially telling people to hold tight.

比如，好日子就在前方。

Like, good times are around the corner.

等等。

Wait.

再等等。

Hang on.

这要求那些已经面临医疗费用即将飙升的人们付出极大的耐心。

That demands a lot of patience from people who are saying, at this point, I am already looking at health care costs that are about to skyrocket.

我现在根本买不起节日礼物。

I can't afford holiday gifts right now.

这个月我的账单太高了，而你却让我等着。

My bills are too high this month, and you're asking me to wait.

你说得对。

You're right.

这也不是政府第一次要求人们如此耐心了。

And it's not the first time that the administration has asked for that kind of patience.

你或许还记得，总统任期早期，当他刚开始实施关税时，白宫的口径是可能会有短期阵痛。

You might remember earlier in the president's term when he first started introducing his tariffs, the message from the White House was there might be some short term pain.

但他们说，这是为了实现更好的经济。

But they said that was in the service of a better economy.

而我们现在正目睹这种阵痛是什么样子。

And so we're now seeing what that pain looks like.

人们正在亲身经历这一切。

People are experiencing it.

从最近的一些民调可以看出，选民们对这种痛苦感到沮丧。

And the message that we're getting from voters as evidenced by some of the recent polling is they're frustrated with the pain.

他们正在感受这种痛苦。

They're feeling it.

他们不喜欢这样，希望白宫和本届政府采取更多措施来应对。

They don't like it, and they want to see the White House and this administration do more about it.

但白宫的回应是，他们将坚持既定路线，因为他们相信自己拥有降低物价、提振美国经济的方案。

But the message from the White House has been that they're going to stay the course because they believe that they have the recipe to lower prices and to boost The US economy.

因此，这里存在一种脱节，对本届政府而言存在着真正的风险。

And so there's a disconnect, and there's a real risk for the administration.

目前尚不清楚美国家庭能否像特朗普政府希望的那样，坚持如此之久，以实现其更好的经济愿景。

And it remains unclear if American families can hold on for as long as the Trump administration would like them to hold on as they pursue this vision of a better economy.

稍后，本·卡斯曼将介绍最新数据实际显示的当前经济状况，以及特朗普对经济的正确与错误判断。

When we come back, Ben Casselman on what the latest data actually shows about the current state of the economy and what Trump gets right and wrong about it.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

嘿。

Hey.

我是乔尔。

I'm Joel.

我是来自《纽约时报》游戏的朱丽叶。

And I'm Juliette from New York Times Games.

我们在这里和人们聊聊游戏。

And we're out here talking to people about games.

你玩《纽约时报》游戏。

You play New York Times Games.

是的。

Yes.

每天都玩。

Every day.

你有最喜欢的吗？

Do you have a favorite?

Connections。

Connections.

它能让你动脑筋。

It just makes you think.

我觉得它给了我灵活性。

I feel like it gives me elasticity.

把四个四人组分出来。

Create four groups of four.

这其实是个挺棒的游戏。

This is actually a pretty cool game.

你最喜欢的游戏是什么？

What's your favorite game?

填字游戏。

The crossword.

填字游戏。

The crossword.

我和我兄弟一起玩。

I do it with my brother.

我们有时会做周四的，但我认为我自己做不了周四的。

We get Thursday sometimes, but I don't think I can do Thursday on my own.

我觉得我在学习。

I feel like I'm learning.

我觉得我在完成一些事情。

I feel like I'm accomplishing something.

我喜欢完成的时候。

I like the when you finish it.

我的家人玩Wordle，我们有一个很大的群聊。

My family does Wordle, and we have a huge group chat.

比如，我奶奶玩Wordle。

Like, my grandma does Wordle.

你奶奶也玩Wordle。

Your grandma does Wordle.

哦，每天都玩。

Oh, every day.

是啊。

Yeah.

你对Wordle有什么特别的看法吗？

Do you have a Wordle hot take?

你应该从一个策略上很糟糕的词开始，这样会更有趣。

You should start with the word that's strategically bad to make it more fun.

所有这些游戏都很有趣，因为它们就像五分钟到十分钟的小休息。

All of these games are so fun because it's like, a little five to ten minute, like, break.

我爱这些游戏。

I love these games.

是啊。

Yeah.

《纽约时报》游戏订阅用户可全面访问我们所有的游戏和功能。

New York Times game subscribers get full access to all our games and features.

立即访问 nytimes.com/games 订阅，享受特别优惠。

Subscribe now at nytimes.com/games for a special offer.

本，我们听说特朗普目前正呼吁人们坚持并等待更好的时光，但这一说法因当前经济中许多人正遭受困境而变得复杂。

Ben, we've heard that Trump is asking people at this moment to hold on and wait for better times, and that that is complicated by the fact that in this economy, many people are hurting.

这一点在民调中有所体现。

That's something that's reflected in polling.

这确实是现实，我认为我们所有人都能在人们的日常经历中看到这一点。

It's something that is just a reality that I think we all see in people's experiences these days.

你一直在研究这些数据。

You have been looking at the data.

那么，基于这些数据，你认为为什么人们此刻对经济感觉如此糟糕？

And so based on that, why do you think people are feeling so bad about the economy at this moment?

我认为这个问题有两个答案。

I think there are two answers to that question.

首先，根据大多数指标，如今的情况实际上比一年前更糟。

The first is that by most measures, things are actually worse today than they were a year ago.

失业率更高了。

Unemployment is higher.

工资增长更缓慢了。

Wage growth is slower.

消费者支出的增长也更慢了。

Consumer spending is growing more slowly.

通货膨胀仍然居高不下。

Inflation is still stubbornly high.

因此，按照我们常用的衡量标准，经济并未陷入灾难。

And so the economy, by the sort of standard measures that we use, is not a disaster.

它并没有急剧下滑，但确实已经恶化。

It's not falling off a cliff, but it has deteriorated.

而渐进式的恶化仍然是恶化。

And a gradual deterioration is still a deterioration.

对。

Right.

人们对于这种恶化感觉不好，这并不令人惊讶。

It's not surprising that people wouldn't feel terrific about a deterioration.

当然。

Absolutely.

但第二个原因是，当我与美国人交谈，了解让他们困扰的事情时，我听到最多的说法是：住房变得昂贵，托儿、养老和医疗都负担不起，他们的收入无法支撑他们原本期望和期待的中产阶级生活。

But then the second reason is that all of the things that I hear the most when I talk to Americans about what bothers them, this sense that housing has gotten expensive, that childcare and eldercare and health care are all unaffordable, that their incomes are not delivering for them the kind of middle class life that they had hoped for and expected.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这些情况都没有好转，有些甚至更糟了。

None of that has gotten better, and some of it has gotten worse.

这些问题都是长期存在的，我不认为任何人会以为唐纳德·特朗普上台后，能在十二个月内解决所有这些长期积弊。

Now those are long run problems, and I don't think anybody thought that Donald Trump was gonna come in and in twelve months fix all of these long standing problems.

对。

Right.

但既然这些问题实际上根本没有改善，而他甚至几乎没有怎么谈论过它们，我认为人们因此感到现状不佳也就不足为奇了。

But to the extent that they really haven't improved, that he hasn't even really talked very much about them, I don't think it's that surprising that people emerge from that and say, I don't feel good about where things are.

没错。

Right.

这些就像他们所说的、尚未得到治疗的开放性伤口。

These are like open wounds that they're saying have not been treated.

不仅没有得到治疗，而且政府对此还相当轻视。

Have not been treated and that the administration is being really quite dismissive of.

我们刚刚获得了关于这些你提到的、长期以来困扰人们的问题的最新数据。

So we just got new numbers on several of these issues that, as you mentioned, have been long standing pain points for people.

你能为我们梳理一下，这些数据揭示了我们在这些问题上的现状吗？

So can you just walk us through what they tell us about where we stand on these issues?

是的。

Yeah.

这周的经济数据非常重磅。

It it's been a huge week for economic data.

对吧？

Right?

由于政府停摆，我们经历了一段长时间没有数据的时期。

We we went for an extended period with no numbers because of the government shutdown.

所以现在所有数据终于一股脑儿地回来了。

And so we're sort of finally getting it all flooding back in.

对。

Right.

我们正试图理解这一切意味着什么。

And we're trying to make sense of of what it all means.

先说说周二发布的就业报告。

Start with the jobs report that we got on Tuesday.

报告显示，11月的就业增长实际上还不错。

It showed that job growth was actually okay in November.

嗯。

Mhmm.

但失业率上升到了4.6%。

But the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%.

这是自我们从疫情中复苏以来的最高水平。

That's the highest since we were emerging from the pandemic.

你如何解读这一点？

How do you parse that?

我认为这告诉我们，劳动力市场陷入停滞，而且已经停滞一段时间了。

So I think what it tells us is that the labor market is stuck, and it's been stuck for kind of a while.

我们听到了裁员的消息。

We hear about layoffs.

对吧？

Right?

我们听说大公司正在裁员。

We hear about big companies that are cutting jobs.

但如果你查看数据，裁员实际上并没有很高。

But if you look at the data, layoffs have really not been very high.

事实上，裁员率一直很低。

In fact, they've been quite low.

所以如果你有工作，似乎并不太可能失去它。

So if you've got a job, you don't seem to be at that much risk of losing it

对。

Right.

目前就是这样。

Right now.

但目前的招聘活动非常少。

But there's very little hiring going on.

经济学家将这种情况称为‘低招聘、低裁员’的环境。

Economists talk about this as a low hire, low fire environment.

所以，如果你正在找工作，无论是刚从大学或高中毕业，还是在休养一段时间后（比如抚养孩子）想重返职场，或者曾经失业现在想重新就业，现在都是一个非常艰难的时期。

So if you're looking for a job, if you're just graduating from college or from high school, if you're trying to reenter the workforce after a time out, you know, raising children, if you have been unemployed and now you're trying to get back into the workforce, it's a really hard time to do that.

而如果你已经有了一份工作，那还好。

And if you do have a job, okay.

你勉强保住了工作，但目前很可能拿不到多少加薪。

You're holding on to it, but you're probably not getting much of a raise right now.

那么，如何才能获得加薪呢？

And what's the best way to get a raise?

最好的办法是去找另一份工作，换工作，或者直接告诉老板：嘿。

It's to go and find another job, change jobs, or or tell your boss, like, hey.

我已经有其他公司的offer了。

I've got another offer.

如果市场上根本没有多少offer，你就拿不到加薪，而且很可能感到非常不安。

If there aren't a lot of offers out there, you're not getting that raise, and you're probably feeling pretty nervous.

对吧？

Right?

你会想：如果我丢了工作，我不确定自己能不能找到新工作。

You're like, I if I do lose my job, I don't know that I'm gonna be able to find a new one.

因此，尽管从绝对意义上说劳动力市场并不算太糟，但人们确实有理由对它感到焦虑。

And so there's a real reason for people to have a level of anxiety over the labor market even though it's sort of not that bad in an absolute sense.

那里有一种停滞感。

There's a kind of stagnancy there.

你用了‘卡住’这个词，这有助于解释为什么人们感到消极。

You used the word stuck that helps explain why people are feeling negatively.

那通货膨胀呢？

What about inflation?

我们刚发布了那份报告。

We just got that report.

表面上看，这些数字其实相当不错。

On the surface, the numbers were really pretty good.

通胀放缓了。

Inflation slowed.

价格同比上涨了2.7%。

Prices were up 2.7% from a year ago.

这仍然高于我们希望看到的水平，但相比很长一段时间以来已经好很多了。

That's still above where we'd like to see it, but but significantly better than it's been in quite a while.

这对政府来说是个好消息。

So good news for the administration.

对政府来说是个好消息。

Good news for the administration.

正如你所料，白宫立即出来宣传，称总统已经解决了通胀问题。

And as you might imagine, the White House was out there right away talking about how the president has solved inflation.

但如果你咨询大多数经济学家，他们会说，要谨慎解读这些数据。

But if you talk to most economists, they will say, read these numbers with a lot of caution.

而关于通胀的更大图景是，它已经降温了。

And that the bigger picture on inflation is that it has cooled.

情况没有一些人担心的那么糟糕。

It's not looking as bad as some people feared that it would.

但我们刚刚经历了一段通胀非常高的时期。

But we're coming off of this period where inflation was really high.

对吧？

Right?

过去五年里，杂货价格上涨了25%。

Grocery prices are up 25% over the past five years.

哇。

Wow.

所以，尽管过去一年仅上涨了2%，人们仍感觉不到好转。

So the fact that they're only up 2% over the last year doesn't make people feel great.

而且仍然存在一些类别，其价格涨幅显著。

And there's still these sort of isolated categories where you see big price increases.

过去一年里，牛肉价格飙升了约15%。

Beef prices are are up something like 15% over the past year.

你看。

And look.

从某个层面来说，经济学家会说，你总可以挑出某个价格大幅上涨的例子。

On one level, an economist is gonna say, well, you can always cherry pick one price or another that's up a bunch.

但如果你是一位消费者，经历了过去几年的价格上涨，现在去超市看到一包牛肉的价格比几个月前贵了很多，你一定会说：真不敢相信这种情况还在继续。

But if you're a a shopper who has experienced this increase in prices over the last few years, and now you go and look at a pack of ground beef and it's so much more expensive than it was a few months ago, you're gonna say, I can't believe this is still happening.

我认为这正是我们目前从选民那里听到的声音。

And I think that's what we're hearing from voters right now.

没错。

Right.

今年情况略有好转，但当你看到某些商品在最近几年里价格大幅上涨时，这种改善感觉并不明显。

Things getting a little better this year doesn't feel like all that much of an improvement when you're looking at something just becoming so much more expensive over the course of very recent history.

是的。

Yeah.

而且别忘了，价格仍在上涨。

And and remember, prices are still rising.

只是上涨的速度比以前慢了。

They're just rising more slowly than they were.

所以当你去超市购物时，你不会说：终于，情况好转了。

And so if you're out there grocery shopping, you're not saying like, finally, things are getting better.

你只会说：哦，好吧，价格还在涨，只是没以前那么快了。

You're just saying, oh, well, they're getting worse a little bit more slowly than they were before.

是的。

Yeah.

感觉还是不好。

Still doesn't feel good.

我认为这让我们转向

And I think that brings us to

本周公布的另一个重要数据是零售销售数据。

the other big data point that came out this week, which was retail sales data.

消费者支出一直非常强劲。

Consumer spending has been quite strong.

根据所有报告，假日季节的消费表现非常强劲。

By all reports, the holiday season looks like it's been a very strong season for spending.

但如果你仔细分析这些数据，会发现这实际上主要由少数高收入消费者推动。

But if you sort of drill down on those numbers, it's really being driven by a relative handful of high income spenders.

对吧？

Right?

如果你在股市里有钱，或者拥有房产，那你感觉还不错。

If you've got money in the stock market, if you own a home, right, you're feeling pretty good.

你花钱很随意。

You're spending freely.

其他人都在承受着物价上涨、工资增长乏力以及对经济状况的担忧带来的压力。

Everyone else is sort of feeling that pinch, right, of higher prices, of weaker wage growth, of nervousness about the state of the economy.

因此，我们看到了经济中这种两极分化的大量证据，嗯。

And so we're seeing sort of a lot of evidence of this bifurcation in the economy Mhmm.

其中一个富裕群体正在随意消费。

Where one well off group is spending freely.

而其他人都感到更加紧张。

Everybody else is feeling a bit more nervous.

所以，即使整体来看消费者支出表现不错，但如果你深入分析，实际情况其实并不那么乐观。

So even if consumer spending looks pretty good on the whole, baked in there, if you look under the hood, it's actually not that rosy of a picture.

有很多人现在的支出比以前少了。

There's many people that aren't spending as much as they were.

没错。

That's right.

而且我认为

And I and I think

这真正反映了当前经济中正在发生的一些事情。

that really speaks to something that's happening in this economy broadly right now.

失业率相对较低，但最近黑人工人和年轻人的失业率大幅上升。

The unemployment rate is relatively low, but it's risen a lot recently for black workers, for young people.

对吧？

Right?

总体而言，消费支出强劲，但这主要是由顶层人群推动的。

Spending is strong in the aggregate, but that's being driven by people at the top.

收入在增长，但其中很大一部分是股市收益，而非工资增长。

Incomes are rising, but a lot of that is stock market gains, not wage gains.

经济中有一些领域正显示出明显的压力迹象。

There are these pockets of the economy where we're seeing real evidence of strain.

那么，如果经济正如你所描述的那样高度分化，我们是否有可能获得一个全面的经济图景？

Is it possible then to actually get a wholesale picture of the economy if things are so segmented as you're describing?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，你看。

I mean, look.

经济始终由各种不同的群体、行业和人群组成，他们经历着不同的状况。

The the economy is always made up of all these different groups and different industries and different people experiencing different things.

对吧？

Right?

因此，在某种程度上，我的工作，也就是经济学家的工作，就是退后一步，试图将其置于一个更大的背景中。

And so on some level, my job, economist's job, right, is to step back and try to put it into some sort of larger context.

而当我们现在这样做的时候，我认为值得认识到，这里实际上存在很多韧性，可能超出了我们的预期。

And when we do that right now, I think it's worth recognizing that there's actually a lot of resilience here that maybe we didn't fully expect.

如果你回想一下春天，当时很多人担心我们会陷入衰退，失业率会飙升，招聘会停止，但实际情况并非如此。

If you think back to the spring, there was a lot of fear that we were going to plunge into a recession, that unemployment was gonna skyrocket, that hiring was gonna stop, and that is not really what we've seen.

我们看起来并不像处于衰退之中。

It doesn't look like we're in a recession.

失业率有所上升，但并没有高得离谱。

Unemployment has risen, but it's not super high.

总体而言，支出保持得相对不错。

Spending has held up relatively okay in the aggregate.

这并不是整个经济直线下坠的景象。

So this isn't a picture of the whole economy pitching off a cliff.

这更像是情况逐渐变糟而非好转，对某些群体来说看起来相当严峻。

It's a picture of things getting kind of gradually worse instead of better and looking pretty grim for some groups.

在这种背景下，人们没有兴高采烈地庆祝经济状况，这是可以理解的。

And I think in that context, it's understandable that people aren't jumping up and down and cheering about the state of the economy.

没错。

Right.

而且，回到特朗普此刻的困境，要转身对人们说：看吧，这并不容易说服人。

And and just to turn back to Trump's predicament in this moment, it's not a very easy sell to kinda turn around to people and say, look.

情况没有预想的那么糟。

It's not as bad as was predicted.

你知道的。

You know?

要向选民推销这样的经济政策，很难说得通。

It's hard to go to a voter and sell them on your economic agenda with a message like that.

我们刚刚经历了四年的拜登执政，那恰恰教会了我们这个教训。

We we just came through four years of a Biden presidency that taught us that exact lesson.

对吧？

Right?

很难告诉人们，想象一下情况本可能有多糟，或者说，只要你静下心来想一想，其实情况还不错。

It's hard to tell people, imagine how much worse it could have been or to say, actually, things are pretty good once you stop and think about it.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这对拜登总统不起作用，现在对特朗普总统似乎也完全不起作用。

That didn't work for president Biden, and it certainly doesn't seem like it's working right now for president Trump.