解析特朗普的50年房贷提案

我是海伦·库珀。

I'm Helene Cooper.

我为《纽约时报》报道美国军事新闻。

I cover the US military for The New York Times.

所以我正坐在五角大楼外停车场的车里。

So I'm sitting in my car in a parking lot outside the Pentagon.

多年来我在大楼里一直有个带办公桌的隔间，但特朗普政府收走了它。

I had a cubicle with a desk inside the building for years, but the Trump administration has has taken that away.

当权者总是给记者制造困难。

People in power have always made it difficult for journalists.

过去这从未阻止过我们。

It hasn't stopped us in the past.

现在也不会阻止我们。

It's not gonna stop us now.

我将继续努力为你们获取真相。

I will keep working to get you the facts.

如果没有《纽约时报》的订阅用户，这项工作就无法开展。

This work doesn't happen without subscribers to The New York Times.

这里是《纽约时报》，我是迈克尔·比尔巴罗。

From The New York Times, I'm Michael Bilbaro.

这里是《每日新闻》。

This is The Daily.

几天前，当特朗普总统提议推出50年期抵押贷款时，他挑战了美国住房市场和金融体系的基石。

A few days ago, when president Trump proposed the introduction of a fifty year mortgage, he challenged a bedrock of the American housing market and financial system.

但最重要的是，他揭示了自己有多么迫切地想要为消费者降低价格，以及他多么愿意采取激进措施来实现这一目标。

But above all, he revealed just how desperate he is to lower prices for consumers and how willing he is to embrace radical solutions to do so.

今天是11月17日，星期一。

It's Monday, November 17.

民主党在周二的全国选举中取得了全面胜利。

Democrats had a clean sweep around the country on Tuesday.

这是对生活成本持续上涨的强烈抗议，在非大选年显得尤为突出。

It was a resounding demand for relief from the rising cost of living in an off year election.

归根结底，两周前新泽西州、弗吉尼亚州和纽约州的选举传递出的信号异常清晰。

In the final analysis, the message from the elections two weeks ago in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York was exceptionally clear.

这个国家已经让人负担不起了。

The country is unaffordable.

人们的食品杂货账单仍然居高不下。

People's groceries bills are still high.

他们仍在应对通货膨胀。

They're still dealing with inflation.

他们正在承受痛苦。

They're suffering.

专注于国内政策，致力于改善民众生活。

Focus on domestic policy and on making people's lives better.

除了某些人之外，所有人都认同这一观点

Everyone embraced that message except

我们的能源成本已大幅下降。

Our energy costs are way down.

我们的食品杂货价格大幅下降。

Our groceries are way down.

所有东西的价格都大幅下降。

Everything is way down.

支持特朗普总统。

For president Trump.

所以我不想听什么负担能力的问题，因为现在

So I don't wanna hear about the affordability because right

他最初对此不屑一顾，这让他的共和党同僚们大为恼火。

Who initially dismissed it, much to the consternation of his fellow Republicans.

总统说几乎没有通货膨胀，食品价格正在下降。

The president says there's virtually no inflation and that grocery prices are going down.

你同意他的说法吗？

Do you agree with him on that?

不同意。

No.

我自己也去杂货店购物。

I go to the grocery store myself.

食品价格仍然很高。

Grocery prices remain high.

能源价格也很高。

Energy prices are high.

所以 affordability（可负担性）是个问题。

So affordability is a problem.

是谁表示认同美国民众的观点，认为总统在平抑物价方面做得不够。

Who said that they agreed with the American people that the president had not done enough to bring down prices.

因此在几天的否认后，特朗普突然改变了论调。

So after a few days of denial, Trump abruptly changed his tune.

突然间，他就成了平价先生。

Suddenly, he was mister affordability.

特朗普总统指控四大肉类加工企业推高了美国牛肉价格。

President Trump accusing four of the biggest meatpacking companies of driving up US beef prices.

他命令司法部调查肉类加工企业是否存在串通哄抬肉价的行为。

He ordered the Justice Department to investigate whether meat packing companies have conspired to inflate meat prices.

是的。

Yes.

可以说总统现在盯上了这个特定行业，他与这个行业有过节。

The president now looking into it, you could say he has beef with this particular industry here.

他取消了对咖啡、番茄、香蕉等家用产品的关税，并提议根据关税收入向每位美国民众发放2000美元支票。

He lifted his own tariffs on household products like coffee, tomatoes, and bananas, and floated the idea of giving every American a $2,000 check based on the revenues from his tariffs.

我希望

I want

这笔钱能直接发给你们，人民。

the money to go directly to you, the people.

他建议通过向消费者提供联邦直接补贴来降低医疗成本。

He suggested lowering health care costs by sending consumers a direct federal subsidy.

你们可以外出购买自己的医疗保险，协商不同方案，获得更好的保险，成为自己的创业者。

And you go out and you buy your own health insurance and you'll negotiate different plans and you'll get much better insurance and you will be an entrepreneur for yourself.

最终，他提出了一个可能改变游戏规则且极具争议的想法，旨在降低住房价格。

And finally, he offered a potentially game changing and extremely controversial idea for reducing the price of housing.

而且他以一种相当不寻常的方式宣布了这个想法，即便对特朗普来说也是如此。

And he announced this idea in a pretty unusual way, even for Trump.

于是周六早上，特朗普在Truth Social上发布了这张照片。

So Saturday morning, Trump posts this picture on Truth Social.

照片上只写着：伟大的美国总统们。

It's just a picture, it says, great American presidents.

康纳·多尔蒂是《纽约时报》的住房问题记者。

Conor Dougherty is a housing reporter for the Times.

左边是富兰克林·D·罗斯福，

And on the left, you have Franklin D.

他上方写着：三十年抵押贷款。

Roosevelt, and above him, it says, thirty year mortgage.

右边是唐纳德·特朗普总统，他上方写着：五十年抵押贷款。

And on the right, you have president Donald Trump, and above him, it says, fifty year mortgage.

康纳，当你看到这个时，你明白这意味着什么吗？

And when you saw that, Conor, did you know what that meant?

是的。

Yeah.

一眼就能看出，他试图提出一个能降低所有抵押贷款人还款额的想法。

Right off the bat, you see, he's trying to come up with an idea that will lower mortgage payments for everyone who has a mortgage.

没错。

Right.

通过降低住房成本来解决可负担性问题。

Address affordability by making housing more affordable.

是的。

Yes.

让支付更加可负担。

Making payments more affordable.

没错。

Right.

尤为重要的是，这张图片将他置于那些彻底重塑美国住房市场的伟大总统之列。

And quite importantly, this image puts him in the pantheon of great presidents who radically rearrange The US housing market.

或许我们可以以这张图片为路线图，先讨论左侧的罗斯福与30年期抵押贷款——这是特朗普的起点，也是我们讨论的起点。

And to use that image maybe as a road map here, let's talk about the left side image, FDR and the thirty year mortgage, which is the starting point for Trump and I suspect for this conversation.

所以我认为我们应该先回溯到罗斯福之前，看看当时的住房市场是什么样子。

So I suppose what we should probably do is go to a little bit before FDR and say what the housing market used to be like.

好的。

Okay.

当时拥有住房的美国人少得多，他们通过多种不同方式借款购房。

Many fewer Americans owned their homes, and they had a lot of different ways for borrowing the money to buy a home.

其中最流行的模式之一叫做建筑贷款协会。

Now one of the most popular models was something called building and loan associations.

年长的听众或影迷可能知道，在电影《生活多美好》中有个虚构的机构叫贝利兄弟建筑贷款协会。

Some of your older or film buff listeners might know that during the movie, it's a wonderful life, there's a fictional company called the Bailey Brothers Building and Loan.

确实如此。

So Right.

本质上来说，它们是合作社。

Basically, they're co ops.

一群人本质上投资于一个资金池，然后他们可以从这个资金池中借款，池中的股东们允许他们从中借钱。

A bunch of people buy into what is essentially a pool of money, and then they can borrow from that pool of money their shareholders in this pool, and then that allows them to borrow money from it.

这是一个非常复杂的模式。

It's a very complicated model.

它蕴含了很大的风险。

It had a lot of risk to it.

但关键在于这是一个非常混乱的市场，而且政府基本上没有参与其中。

But the point is is that it's a very haphazard market, and it's a market that the government has essentially no involvement in.

对吧？

Right?

所以在大萧条期间，显然会出现全面混乱。

So during the Great Depression, obviously, there's total chaos.

银行遭遇了大规模挤兑。

There's a huge run on banks.

信贷以各种方式全面收缩，这使得购房变得极其困难。

Credit is just completely pulled back in various ways, and it makes it really, really hard to buy a house.

富兰克林·罗斯福被视为将政府大规模引入住房市场的人物。

FDR is seen as the person who brought the government into the housing market in a big way.

大萧条之后，政府采取了一系列措施。

After the Great Depression, government does a bunch of different things.

其中之一是大力推广所谓的可摊销抵押贷款标准，即你只需一次性支付本金和利息。

One is they really try to make standard this idea of what's called an amortizable mortgage, which means you have one payment, and you do your principal and interest in one easy payment.

另一件事是他们开始鼓励更长期限的抵押贷款。

The other thing is they start encouraging longer term mortgages.

现在更长期限的抵押贷款会更实惠，因为如果你能将还款期延长到三十年而非十年，月供会少得多。

Now longer term mortgages are gonna be more affordable because the monthly payment is gonna be much less if you can extend it over, say, thirty years instead of ten years.

问题是银行并不真正想做长期抵押贷款。

The problem is banks don't really want to do long mortgages.

他们不喜欢这样，因为如果利率上升，他们需要向银行存款者支付更多利息，但从房贷借款人那里收回的钱却保持不变。

They don't like it because if interest rates go up, they have to pay more money to the people who put money in their bank, but they're still getting the same amount of money from the people who've borrowed money for the home.

所以政府说，好吧。

So the government says, okay.

我们会通过在这些贷款出现问题时提供担保来帮你解决这个问题。

Well, we'll help you with that problem by covering you if these loans start to go belly up.

嗯。

Mhmm.

他们具体操作的方式就是我们现有的这套极其复杂的抵押贷款体系。

Now exactly how they do this is this very, very complicated mortgage system that we now have.

但这一切的核心目的是让更多人能更容易买房，让购房款能通过一种简便的还款方式解决。

But the whole point of all of this is to make it easier for more people to buy homes and for that home to be sort of wrapped around one easy payment.

于是从大萧条这场经济灾难中，诞生了政府推动的这项计划——通过确保美国人能以如今我们熟知的30年固定利率房贷这种长期可负担的方式购房，鼓励尽可能多的民众置业。

So out of the economic calamity that was the Great Depression comes this effort by the government to encourage as many Americans as possible to buy a home by ensuring that they can do so over a very long period that makes it more affordable with what we now think of as the fixed rate thirty year mortgage.

有趣的是，在某种意义上我们要感谢大萧条催生了这一制度。

Interestingly, we can thank the Great Depression in a sense for that.

是啊。

Yeah.

正是这套制度造就了我们极高的住房自有率。

That system is why we have a huge homeownership rate.

约三分之二的美国人拥有自己的住房。

About two thirds of Americans own their home.

如果没有三十年固定利率贷款，这个数字会低得多。

That number would be way lower without their thirty year fixed mortgage.

这简直是天大的好事，因为利率是固定的。

And it's just an incredible deal because the interest rate is fixed.

即使通货膨胀加剧，你的月供也不会增加。

Your monthly loan payment is frozen even if inflation picks up.

更重要的是，如果利率大幅下降，你还可以重新贷款。

On top of that, if rates go way down, you can refinance.

没错。

Right.

所以实际上你可以逐步降低利率，我前不久就这么操作过。

So you can actually lower your rate over time, which I did not too long ago.

这样你既能享受固定利率的所有好处，又无需承担其弊端。

So you get all the benefits of a fixed rate with none of the downsides.

这就是我们住房自有率如此之高的原因。

And that is why we have a really high homeownership rate.

现在我们来简单讨论一下。

Now let's talk for a second.

政府为何要降低民众贷款难度？

Why would the government wanna make it easier for people to borrow money?

嗯。

Mhmm.

原因在于，如果你借钱购买资产，比如房产这类能保值甚至升值的物品，这与某晚刷信用卡点外卖的消费性质截然不同。

Well, the reason is if you're borrowing money to buy an asset, a home, something that's gonna hold its value, hopefully increase in value, it's kind of different than running up a credit card bill to get takeout one night.

对吧？

Right?

因此政府建立了所有这些金融基础设施，目的就是鼓励人们购买稳定资产。

So the government has all this financial plumbing created because it wants people to buy a stable asset.

这对他们的家庭来说是稳定的保障。

It's stable for their family.

这是一种强制储蓄。

It has forced savings.

即使房产没有升值或升值不理想，你依然在积累这笔资金——如果租房就做不到这点。

Even if the home doesn't appreciate or appreciates not very well, you're still saving all that money, which you would not be doing if you were just renting.

所以你通过借贷来创造稳定性。

So you're borrowing all this money to kind of create stability.

你让人们在社区扎根。

You create people who are rooted in neighborhoods.

你创造了可供人们拥有并传承给子女的资产。

You create an asset that people can own and pass to their children.

你构建了一种养老储蓄形式。

You create a form of retirement savings.

既然按你说的30年固定利率房贷效果不错，我们为什么还要去改动它呢？

So why would we ever mess with the thirty year fixed rate mortgage if, from what you're saying, it kinda works and works pretty well?

是的。

Yeah.

房价已经变得昂贵得多。

Homes have become much more expensive.

房价上涨有很多复杂的原因，但人们直观感受到的就是月供压力。

There are a lot of complicated reasons for why they become more expensive, but the way that people see it is that mortgage payment.

房地产行业有句老话：你买的不是房子，而是月供。

There's an adage in the real estate industry that says, you don't actually buy a house, you buy a payment.

人们用这笔月供作为衡量标准，判断自己能否实现拥有房产的梦想。

People use that payment as their barometer for can they or can they not achieve the dream of becoming a homeowner?

嗯。

Mhmm.

由于种种原因，过去几年这笔月供变得昂贵许多。

So this payment has gotten a lot more expensive over the past couple years for a whole bunch of different reasons.

首先是房屋本身价格更高了。

One is homes just cost more.

房价上涨自然导致月供金额增加。

So if homes cost more, it's gonna be a higher payment.

其次是利率上升了，没错。

The other is interest rates have gone up Right.

相比疫情期间的历史低点已经涨了不少。

Quite a bit from their rock bottom level in the pandemic.

这让人非常沮丧，因为朋友们都享受2%的利率，而自己却要承受6%。

And that is making people feel really bad because all their friends got 2% interest rates, and now they're stuck with six.

所以房价更贵了，贷款成本也更高了。

So homes are more expensive, and money is more expensive.

因此月供金额相比之前上涨了不少。

And so that payment has gone up quite a bit from what it was.

没错。

Right.

三十年固定利率房贷已经让人感觉负担不起了。

The thirty year fixed rate mortgage no longer feels very affordable.

是的。

Yes.

但如果你是个政客，只盯着月供数字看，你会觉得所有人都对这个金额感到愤怒。

And so if you're a politician though, and you're just looking at that payment, you're going, everyone is mad about this payment.

我能在较短时间内采取什么措施来降低月供，让人们感觉好受些呢？

What can I do in a relatively short period of time that will make that payment go down, which would make people feel very good?

你可以效仿罗斯福总统的做法，想办法把还款期限拉得更长。

Well, you can do what FDR did, which is find ways to stretch the payment out over a much longer period of time.

于是就有了五十年期房贷的构想。

Thus, the idea of a fifty year mortgage.

对。

Yes.

比尔·普尔特是特朗普政府的高级官员，恰好也是威廉·普尔特的孙子——后者帮助建立了普尔特住宅建筑帝国。

So Bill Pulte, who is a senior Trump administration official, also happens to be the grandson of William Pulte, who has helped build the Pulte Homes home building empire.

哇。

Wow.

显然去找特朗普并给他看了这张海报。

Apparently goes to Trump and shows him this poster.

左边是罗斯福，三十年房贷。

FDR on the left, thirty year mortgage.

右边是特朗普，五十年房贷。

Trump on the right, fifty year mortgage.

特朗普似乎接受了这个想法，并在Truth Social上发文，看起来将其视为一项提案。

And Trump buys into the idea, I guess, and posted on Truth Social and seemingly embraces it as a proposal.

请解释一下五十年房贷如何实际降低人们的月住房成本。

And just explain how a fifty year mortgage would work to actually lower people's monthly housing costs.

我们这里是在猜测，因为特朗普政府没有就此发布详细的白皮书。

So we're taking some guesses here because the Trump administration did not put out a thorough white paper on this.

但基本要点是，房屋成本将分摊到五十年而非三十年内偿还。

But the basic gist is the cost of the home would be spread out over fifty years instead of thirty years.

例如，如果你购买一套50万美元的房子，你将在五十年而非三十年内支付这笔购房款。

So if you are buying a $500,000 home, for instance, you're paying that purchase price over fifty years instead of thirty years.

因此你每月还款中用于房屋的部分会减少。

And so the portion of your payment that is the home is gonna be lower in each monthly payment.

假设你以当前房贷利率购买一套50万美元的房子，首付20%。

So let's just say you're buying a $500,000 house at current mortgage rates, you put down 20%.

你的月供将从三十年期的约2500美元降至五十年期的约2200美元。

Your payment would go from about $2,500 for a thirty year, right, to about $2,200 for a fifty year.

每月。

Per month.

每月。

Per month.

所以你每月大约能省下300美元。

So you'd save about $300 per month.

简单算一下，每月300美元乘以一年12个月，差不多就是每年4000美元。

And just to say $300 a month times twelve months of the year is nearly $4,000 a year.

这可是实实在在的钱。

That's real money.

是啊。

Yeah.

绝对的。

Definitely.

这可是真金白银，宝贝。

That's real money, baby.

想象一下你涨薪4000美元的样子。

Imagine if you got a $4,000 raise.

没错。

Yeah.

你肯定会非常高兴。

You'd be pretty pleased.

那么理论上，如果推出50年期抵押贷款，并且按照我们讨论的金额降低月供，会对美国市场产生什么影响？

And so in theory, what would a fifty year mortgage do to The US market if it came into existence and if it lowered home monthly payments by the amount we're talking about?

很难准确预测对市场的影响，但这肯定会火上浇油。

It's hard to say exactly how it would impact the market, but it would turn up the heat.

这会促使更多人想要购买。

It would make more people want to buy.

这会让更多人觉得他们能够购买。

It would make more people feel like they could buy.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

这反过来可能会让更多人想要挂牌出售，因为他们会觉得，'哦，我终于能得到真正想要的报价了'。

That in turn might get more people wanna list because they feel like, oh, well, I'm gonna finally get the offer I really wanted.

这反过来可能会促使建筑商加快新屋建设速度，因为需求再次增长。

That in turn could get homebuilders to increase the pace of new construction because the lines are growing again.

因此这肯定会在多方面刺激房地产市场，因为现在更多人能买得起房子了。

So it would definitely stimulate the housing market in a great many ways because more people can buy homes now.

没错。

Right.

所以你能明白为什么这对美国总统来说是个诱人的选择——当所有人都在告诉他这个国家存在严重的住房负担问题时。

So you can see why this would be an attractive option for the president of The United States at a moment when everyone's telling him there's a real affordability problem in this country, and it's typified by the unaffordability of the housing markets.

你就能理解为什么发布那张图片、把30年房贷突然变成50年房贷会如此诱人。

You can see why it would be tempting to post that image and just make a thirty year mortgage suddenly a fifty year mortgage.

噢，完全同意。

Oh, totally.

我的意思是，如果总统想解决住房负担问题，提出能直接改变人们月供的方案确实很有吸引力——因为它能明显降低还款额，让人们直观感受到预算变化。

I mean, if you're a president who wants to do anything for affordability, coming up with a thing that will change someone's monthly bill is really appealing because it would lower payments and it would lower them in an obvious way that people could see in their budget.

那么特朗普发布这个想法后，外界反应如何？

And so what is the response to this idea once Trump posts it?

他与罗斯福总统的合影以及五十年抵押贷款的概念。

That image of himself and FDR and the concept of fifty year mortgage.

人们彻底否定了这个想法。

People just annihilate this idea.

我是说，他们认为这可能会让情况变得更糟而非更好。

I mean, they say this could make things worse, not better.

来自政治光谱各端的人们一致认为，这是个极其糟糕的主意。

People from all across the political spectrum converge and say, this is just an incredibly bad idea.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

我是艾米丽·巴杰。

I'm Emily Badger.

我是《纽约时报》的记者。

I'm a reporter with The New York Times.

自疫情以来，空置的办公楼在许多城市变得更为常见。

Since the pandemic, empty office buildings have become much more common in many cities.

为什么我们不能把它们改造成住房呢？

Why can't we just turn them into housing?

这实际上是个非常复杂的问题。

It's actually a really complicated question.

要回答这个问题，你得找到一位试图将办公楼改造成公寓的开发商。

To answer this question, you have to find a developer trying to turn an office building into apartments.

乘坐摇摇晃晃的电梯上到建筑工地的30层，查看大楼的内部结构，找到一位白炽灯泡专家，他能向你解释这些灯泡如何从根本上改变了办公楼。

Ride a rickety elevator to the 30th Floor of a construction site to see the interior guts of a building, finds an expert in incandescent light bulbs who can explain to you how they fundamentally change office buildings.

而这仅仅是你需要做的事情的开始。

And that's just the beginning of what you have to do.

当你订阅《纽约时报》时，你就是在派遣像我这样的记者走向世界各地，向数十位不同领域的专家提问，探访大多数人无法到达的地方，努力带回答案，并将所有这些转化为任何人都能理解的内容。

When you subscribe to The New York Times, you are sending reporters like me out into the world to ask questions of dozens of different experts, to go and visit places most people don't get to go, to try to come back with answers, and then turn all of that into something that anyone can understand.

如果您想成为订阅用户，请访问nytimes.com/subscribe。

If you'd like to become a subscriber, head to nytimes.com/subscribe.

你需要看看这篇文章中的动态平面图。

You need to see the animated floor plans in this piece.

那么，康纳，为什么大家都对这个想法持否定态度？

So, Connor, why is everyone panning this idea?

五十年期抵押贷款到底有什么问题？

What is so wrong with the fifty year mortgage?

好的。

Okay.

问题在于它看起来像是在帮你省钱。

So the problem is it looks like it saves you money.

让我们回到之前的例子。

Let's return to our example.

你有一套50万美元的房子，当前抵押贷款利率为6.2%。

You have the $500,000 house with the current 6.2% mortgage rate.

月供从2500美元降到了2200美元。

You go from $2,500 to $2,200.

你每月省下了300美元。

You've saved yourself $300.

对。

Right.

好的。

Okay.

在第一个例子中，三十年后你将支付大约50万美元的利息。

Now in the first example, thirty years, you're gonna end up paying about $500,000 in interest.

你支付的利息基本上相当于房子本身的价格。

You pay basically the house in interest.

一套50万的房子，你要支付约50万的利息。

By a 500,000 house, you pay about $500,000 interest.

利息真多。

A lot of interest.

是的。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

现在我们来看第二个例子。

Now let's go to the second example.

你买下那套房子并分五十年付款。

You take that house and you buy it over fifty years.

那么现在你最终要支付约90万美元的利息。

Well, now you're gonna end up spending about $900,000 in interest.

哇。

Wow.

多出相当大一笔金额。

A significant amount more.

所以你的50万美元房子要支付近百万美元的利息。

So almost a million dollars in interest for your $500,000 house.

哇。

Wow.

你支付的利息比房子本身还要多得多。

You're paying way more in interest than you are for your house.

你基本上是在买两套房子，只不过另一套的钱是付给银行的。

You're basically buying your house twice, but you're paying the bank for a whole other version of your house.

正是如此。

Exactly.

我的意思是，原因在于这要多支付二十年的利息。

I mean and the reason is it's twenty more years of paying interest.

所以五十年期贷款的一个重大缺点是还要额外多付二十年利息给银行。

So a major, major downside of a fifty year mortgage is twenty extra years of forking over interest payments to the bank.

不仅如此，还有个问题是你是否真的能省钱。

And not only that, there's some questions about whether or not it would even really save you money.

比如说，如果银行提供五十年期贷款，其利率几乎肯定会比三十年期的更高。

So for instance, if banks are gonna be doing fifty year mortgages, the interest rate on the fifty year mortgage is almost certainly gonna be higher than on a thirty year mortgage.

原因是五十年期贷款风险大得多。

And the reason is a fifty year mortgage is much riskier.

如果你把钱借给别人五十年而不是三十年，这期间出问题的概率要高得多。

If you're lending someone money over fifty years instead of thirty years, there's a much higher chance that something will go wrong in those fifty years.

嗯。

Mhmm.

除此之外，如果你在50年后才购买那套房子，你需要更长的时间才能真正拥有房屋的产权。

On top of that, if you are buying that home after fifty years, it takes you a lot longer to start owning real equity in that home.

众所周知，查看抵押贷款账单就会发现，在最初的几年里，你主要只是在支付利息。

As anybody knows, looking at their mortgage statement, in the first few years, you're you're mainly only paying interest.

而在最后几年里，你主要只是在偿还本金。

And in the last years, you're mainly only paying principal.

所以你需要20年时间才能真正拥有房屋的大部分产权。

So it would take you twenty years to start really having significant equity in the house.

没错。

Right.

我想我们或许应该提到一个现实：如果许多美国人开始申请50年期抵押贷款，而我们假设很多人直到三十七八岁或四十出头才开始申请——这正是如今许多美国人开始购房的年龄段——那么很多人将无法还清这些贷款。

And I guess we should probably mention the reality that if a lot of Americans started to take out fifty year mortgages, and we assume many people don't start taking them out until they're in their late thirties and early forties, which is when a lot of Americans now embark on homeownership, a lot of people are not gonna make it to the end of these mortgages.

我的意思是，他们会去世。

I mean, they're gonna die.

对吧？

Right?

毫无疑问。

Unquestionably.

现在关于这个提议最引人注目的批评是，其中大部分都来自特朗普所在的政党内部和他的一些最亲密盟友。

Now what's really striking about the critiques of this idea is just how much of it is coming from within Trump's party and some of Trump's closest allies.

保守派活动家劳拉·卢默就说过'终身抵押贷款'这样的话。

You have Laura Loomer, the conservative activist, saying lifetime mortgages.

玛乔丽·泰勒·格林是最坚定支持'美国优先'政策的人物之一。

You have Marjorie Taylor Greene, who is one of the most strongly associated with America first.

她说，你会因此负债终身。

Well, she says, you'll be in debt for life.

另一位保守派活动家克里斯托弗·鲁福表示：'15或30年期的房贷能让你真正拥有房产，而50年期的房贷意味着你永远无法真正拥有房子。'

You have Christopher Rufo, another conservative activist, saying, if you have a fifteen or thirty year mortgage, you'll actually own your home, whereas a fifty year mortgage, you're you're never gonna own your home.

本质上，你只是在向银行长期租房。

Essentially, you're just renting it from the bank now.

有意思。

Interesting.

来自各政治派别的许多人都认为这是非常冒险的交易。

Many people from all across the political spectrum sort of recognize this as a very risky deal.

那么是否可以说，这不太可能成为美国房贷的新黄金标准？

So is it fair to say that this is probably not about to become the new gold standard of American mortgages?

我认为可以说他们正在重新考虑这个方案。

I think it's fair to say they're going back to the drawing board on this one.

既然这个想法目前没有进展，本届政府还提出了哪些措施来解决当前住房负担能力问题？

So if this idea isn't really going anywhere at the moment, what else is coming out of this administration that would potentially confront the unaffordability of housing right now?

特朗普政府官员比尔·普尔特表示这只是众多方案之一。

So Bill Pulte, the Trump administration official said this was just one of several ideas.

另一个方案是可转移房贷，允许将原有房贷利率带到新购置房产。

Another would be portable mortgages where you could take your mortgage rate with you to another house.

这有望释放房源——因为许多美国人目前享有较低房贷利率，虽想换房却因不愿承受更高利率而却步。

That would hopefully open up inventory because a lot of Americans right now have lower mortgage rates and wanna move, but aren't going to because they don't wanna have to buy a new house at a higher mortgage rate.

这可能会鼓励更多人搬家。

So that might encourage more people to move.

对。

Right.

所以这可能会让房地产市场松动。

So it would un stick the housing market potentially.

另一个方案是可继承的抵押贷款。

Another one would be assumable mortgages.

所以这是从不同角度出发的相同理念。

So that's kind of the same idea from a different direction.

如果你买房时，原房主有超低利率，你或许能继承他们的抵押贷款和利率。

If you buy a home and the person who owns the home has a killer low interest rate, you might be able to assume their mortgage and their mortgage rate, you know, when you buy the house.

这样就能鼓励人们搬迁。

So that would encourage someone to move.

这会鼓励人们买房，诸如此类。

That would encourage someone to buy, etcetera.

这些方案中有可行的吗？

Are any of these practical?

它们能实现吗？

Are they achievable?

很可能不行。

Probably not.

但你看到的核心思路是一致的：我们如何调整债务结构？

What you're seeing though is all the same type of idea, which is how do we fiddle with the debt?

我们该如何调整抵押贷款利率，才能有效降低还款压力？比如延长到第五年，或者实质性地回溯时间，让人们获得相当于十年前的利率水平。

How do we fiddle with mortgage rates in such a way that we can attack the payment, either by extending it with the fifth year or essentially winding back in time to give people access to mortgage rates that reflect mortgage rates of ten years ago.

但我们忽略了一个关键问题：房价如此高昂的根本原因在于国内严重的住房短缺。

But there's one big thing we're missing here, which is that the reason housing is so expensive is that we have a really bad housing shortage in the country.

实际上自大萧条后我们就基本停止了住房建设，至今未能弥补这一缺口。

We stopped building housing essentially stopped building housing after the great recession and have never caught up.

所以若想真正解决住房可负担性问题，最终必须直面这个核心矛盾。

So if you wanna have any real impact on affordability, you have to eventually attack that problem.

而调整抵押贷款利率的做法，本质上只是让更多人能竞购数量基本不变的房产。

And attacking the mortgage rate stuff, all it really does is make it easier for more people to buy what is basically the same number of homes.

确实。

Right.

这本质上是在解决表象问题。

It attacks a symptom by definition.

没错。

Exactly.

住房短缺问题的棘手之处在于见效周期长，且总统的调控权限非常有限。

And the problem with the housing shortage is that it takes a long time to have any impact on, and it's not a thing that the president has a lot of control over.

各州对住房建设都有具体法规约束。

There are state regulations for how you build housing.

地方政府对住房建造也设有管理条例。

There are local regulations for how you build a housing.

这些令人头疼的复杂条款，白宫既难以控制也缺乏影响力。

All this stuff that just breaks your brain, the White House doesn't have much control or even influence over.

对。

Right.

那是州长的职责范围。

That's the province of governors.

这是市长的职责范围。

It's the province of mayors.

是啊。

Yeah.

所以，在全国范围内，你会看到各州确实在努力解决这个供应问题。

So, around the country, you are seeing states really go after this supply problem.

你已经看到了佛罗里达州、蒙大拿州、德克萨斯州、加利福尼亚州、俄勒冈州、亚利桑那州、马萨诸塞州的情况。

You've seen Florida, Montana, Texas, California, Oregon, Arizona, Massachusetts.

所有这些州都采取了某种措施，实质上是降低住房法规限制，以便更容易建造住房，希望以此激励建筑商掀起建设热潮。

All of these states have had some kind of effort to essentially lower their housing regulations to make it easier to build housing in hopes that they will inspire homebuilders to go through a building boom.

但这些解决方案都需要很长时间，而且也可能引发争议。

But these solutions all take a really long time, and they can also be controversial.

没错。

Right.

你知道，例如在加利福尼亚州，他们刚刚通过了一项改变分区规划的法律。

You know, in California, for instance, they just passed a law that changes zoning.

这使得在现有社区建造更高密度的住房变得容易得多。

It makes it much easier to build higher density housing in existing neighborhoods.

实际上，通过该法案的立法机构已经为此努力了十年，而且是在人们激烈反对后才通过的，因为他们不希望独户住宅区出现更高的建筑。

Well, the legislature who passed that bill has been working on a version of this for ten years, and it only passed after people fought like crazy against it because they don't want taller buildings in their single family neighborhoods.

即便经历了所有这些艰难的政治博弈后，开发商要获得项目批准、开始施工、建成足够数量的住房以影响供应量，最终让人们在房价上真正感受到变化，仍需数年时间。

Even if all these things happen after going through all that difficult politics, it'll still be years before developers get projects approved, before they start building them, before there's enough units to impact the supply that people would really notice in prices.

所以这项工作就是枯燥繁重又吃力不讨好的苦差事。

So this work is just grinding hard work that's also kind of thankless.

感觉各州似乎已经无计可施，只能硬着头皮做这些艰难的工作。

And it feels like the states have kind of run out of options, and so they are doing the hard work.

假设所有这些州——加州也好，德州也罢——真的对供应量产生巨大影响，确实为民众降低了房价。

So let's say all these states, California, whatever, Texas, actually have a huge impact on the supply, and actually they lower prices for people.

嗯。

Mhmm.

对吧？

Right?

假设他们取得了巨大成功。

Let's say they it's a resounding success.

这种巨大成功在任何人政治生涯的有限时间内都不太可能实现。

That resounding success is unlikely to happen in anyone's political lifetime.

嗯。

Mhmm.

肯定赶不上2026年中期选举前见效。

It's certainly not gonna happen before the twenty twenty six midterms.

到2028年之前也不太可能对房价产生非常显著的重大影响。

And it's very unlikely to have a huge, huge noticeable impact on prices by 2028.

明白了。

Got it.

根据你所说的，解决当前美国住房可负担性危机的真正方案并不花哨。

From everything you're saying, the real solutions to the American housing crisis of unaffordability right now isn't flashy.

它不会立竿见影。

It isn't quick.

也不是那种有两位总统出镜的社交媒体热帖。

It's not a true social post with two presidents on it.

更不是五十年期的抵押贷款。

It's not a fifty year mortgage.

而是通过调整分区法规和刺激地方住房市场这种极其枯燥、艰难、缓慢且烧脑的工作——而且这项改革很可能不会由白宫主导。

It's this very unsexy, difficult, slow, brain breaking work of changing the way zoning works and stimulating local housing markets, and it's probably not going to be coming from the White House.

完全正确。

Absolutely right.

我认为联邦政府可以在这方面发挥巨大作用。

I think the federal government can be a huge part of this story.

虽然联邦政府能采取诸多措施支持各州和地方政府的改革努力，但他们不会成为这些改革的主导者。

I think there are lots of things the federal government can do to help these efforts that are happening in state and local governments, but they're not gonna be the author of them.

奥康纳，非常感谢你。

O'Connor, thank you very much.

我很感激。

I appreciate it.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我们稍后回来。

We'll be right back.

你好。

Hi.

我是索拉娜·派恩。

I'm Solana Pine.

我是《纽约时报》的视频总监。

I'm the director of video at The New York Times.

多年来，我的团队制作的视频让你能更贴近重大新闻时刻。

For years, my team has made videos that bring you closer to big news moments.

时报记者制作的视频拥有专业知识，能帮助你理解正在发生的事情。

Videos by Times journalists that have the expertise to help you understand what's going on.

现在我们将这些视频带到《纽约时报》应用的观看标签页中。

Now we're bringing those videos to you in the watch tab in the New York Times app.

这是一个专门的视频流，你可以确信所看到的内容真实可靠。

It's a dedicated video feed where you know you can trust what you're seeing.

那里的所有视频对任何人都可以免费观看。

All the videos there are free for anyone to watch.