委内瑞拉，后马杜罗时代

嗨。

Hi.

我是索拉纳·派恩。

I'm Solana Pine.

我是《纽约时报》视频部门的总监。

I'm the director of video at The New York Times.

多年来，我的团队制作了诸多视频，带您更贴近重大新闻时刻，这些视频由《纽约时报》记者制作，具备专业洞察力，帮助您理解正在发生的事。

For years, my team has made videos that bring you closer to big news moments, videos by Times journalists that have the expertise to help you understand what's going on.

现在，我们将这些视频带到《纽约时报》应用的“观看”标签页中。

Now we're bringing those videos to you in the watch tab in the New York Times app.

这是一个专属的视频频道，您可以完全信赖其中的内容。

It's a dedicated video feed where you know you can trust what you're seeing.

那里所有的视频都免费向所有人开放。

All the videos there are free for anyone to watch.

您无需成为订阅用户。

You don't have to be a subscriber.

下载《纽约时报》应用程序开始观看。

Download the New York Times app to start watching.

我的国家是委内瑞拉，我叫约翰·罗德里格斯。

My country is Venezuela, and my name is John Rodriguez.

我叫胡安，我在首都加拉加斯。

My name is Juan, and I'm in Caracas in the capital.

我叫卡罗琳娜·希尔。

My name is Carolina Hill.

我住在委内瑞拉最重要的军事设施附近。

I live near the most important military complex here in Venezuela.

1月3日凌晨大约1点57分，我和妹妹正在看电影，突然整个地方一片漆黑。

Early January 3, it was, like, 01:57AM, and I was watching a movie with my sister, and everything went completely dark.

五秒钟后，我们听到了第一声爆炸。

And five seconds later, we heard the first explosion.

我跑到窗边想看看发生了什么。

I ran to the window to take a look at what was going on.

我的手在发抖。

My hands were shaking.

我只能看到月光。

I could only see the light of the moon.

我们能听到飞机和直升机的声音，但却看不到它们。

And we could hear the airplanes and we could hear the helicopters, but we couldn't see them.

我所在大楼的墙壁和窗户都在震动。

And the walls of my building and the windows were shaking.

我以为美国佬来了。

I thought now the gringus are here.

他们正在袭击加拉加斯。

They are attacking Caracas.

城里每个人都听到了这些噪音。

Everybody in the city heard the noises.

我觉得我们很紧张，但同时也很兴奋，因为我们以为他们正在推翻政府。

I think we were nervous, but at the same time excited because we thought they were overthrowing the government.

他们正在把我们从独裁统治中解放出来。

They were freeing us from the dictatorship.

我和我女朋友当时哭着喊着。

Like, my girlfriend and I were crying and screaming.

我给我妈妈打了电话。

I called my mom.

我给我兄弟们打了电话。

I called my brothers.

我给所有家人都打了电话。

Like, I called all my family.

我们等这一天已经等了好几年。

We were waiting for that for years.

当唐纳德·特朗普发布马杜罗被俘的照片时，那一刻我高兴极了。

When Donald Trump put up the picture with Maduro captured, I am so happy in that moment.

天哪，老兄。

Oh my god, man.

说实话，看到那张照片我哭了。

Honestly, I cry for that picture.

这一切终于结束了。

It's finished that.

这场噩梦。

This hell.

这感觉像是一场真正的胜利。

This felt like a real victory.

像这样对我的国家造成如此巨大伤害的政府官员，终于要面临真正的正义了。

Like, someone in this government that has done so much damage to my country is going to finally face real justice.

这次袭击之后，我们心想，好吧。

After this attack, we were like, okay.

他们做到了。

They did it.

但这意味着什么？

But what's the meaning of that?

那接下来会对我们做什么？

What will come for us?

我的意思是，下一步是什么？

I mean, what what's the next step?

因为，好吧，他们把马杜罗搞下去了，但我们还有贝尔西。

Because, okay, they took Maduro out, but we have Belci.

我们还有帕德雷诺·洛佩斯。

We have Padreno Lopez.

我们还有豪尔赫·罗德里格斯。

We have Jorge Rodriguez.

我的意思是，他们还在那里。

I mean, they are still here.

其他人，政府是自由的。

Other people, government is free.

我感到困惑。

I am confused.

委内瑞拉的未来真的、真的充满不确定性，人民不知道会发生什么。

The future in Venezuela really, really is uncertain, and the people don't know what will happen.

人民非常害怕。

The people is so scared.

他们非常害怕。

They're so scared.

来自《纽约时报》，我是娜塔莉·基托罗夫。

From The New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitroef.

这是《每日新闻》。

This is The Daily.

周一，尼古拉斯·马杜罗及其妻子赛莉亚在曼哈顿法庭上否认指控，而委内瑞拉近三千万人民正努力接受后马杜罗时代的现实。

On Monday, as Nicolas Maduro and his wife Celia pleaded not guilty in a Manhattan courtroom, the nearly 30,000,000 people of Venezuela struggled to absorb the reality of a post Maduro era.

一个美国似乎已成为主导力量、重塑这个曾经坚定反美的政府的时代。

An era in which The United States appears to be the dominant force reshaping their once firmly anti American government.

今天，我的同事阿纳托利·克尔曼内夫解释了特朗普总统为何选择支持一位马杜罗忠诚者来管理国家。

Today, my colleague Anatoly Kermanaev explains why president Trump chose to back a Maduro loyalist to run the country

而且什么

and what

委内瑞拉人对此怎么看。

Venezuelans think of it all.

今天是1月6日，星期二。

It's Tuesday, January 6.

你好，阿纳托利。

Hi, Anatoli.

欢迎。

Welcome.

很高兴你来这里。

It's good to have you here.

谢谢你邀请我，娜塔莉。

Thanks for having me, Natalie.

所以在过去几天里，我们这个节目讨论了抓捕尼古拉斯·马杜罗的行动是如何进行的。

So in the last couple of days, we at the show have talked about how this operation to capture Nicolas Maduro went down.

我们已经讨论过它的合法性。

We've talked about the legality of it.

我们较少讨论的是，目前谁在管理委内瑞拉，以及这一切将如何发展？

What we haven't talked about as much is who is running Venezuela right now, and how is all of that gonna play out?

因为此刻这种情况显得非常不确定。

Because that feels very uncertain in this moment.

在整个事件发生过程中，你一直身处该国，参与了这次行动。

You've been in the country, as this all has been going on, through the mission itself.

你现在就在加拉加斯。

You're in Caracas right now.

那么，首先，那里感觉怎么样？

So just to start, how does it feel there?

在刚刚过完圣诞节的这座城市里，感觉很不真实。

It feels surreal being in the city still coming out of Christmas holidays.

这是一个拥有四百多万人口的大都市，到处都是灯光和装饰。

It's a metropolis of more than 4,000,000 people, and it's full of lights and decorations.

昨晚我开车穿过这座城市，整座城市空无一人。

And I was driving through the city last night, and the city was completely deserted.

街上连一个人影都没有，也没有任何声音。

You know, there was not a single soul on the streets, no sounds to be made.

感觉就像我在看一部僵尸电影。

It felt like I was in a zombie movie.

我想这恰恰体现了那种期待、恐惧和担忧的氛围。

And I think it just sums up this atmosphere of expectation, of fear, of concern.

气氛非常紧张。

It's just tense.

我们没有看到尼古拉斯·马杜罗倒台后民众大规模的欢庆景象。

We have not seen mass signs of jubilation at the fall of Nicolas Maduro.

同时，我们也未看到任何真正大规模的、为他和他的妻子哀悼的场面。

At the same time, we have not seen any genuine mass outpourings of grieving for him and his wife.

在这种安静而紧张的氛围中，镇压的迹象却在增多：有人被拘捕，记者受到骚扰，这让我意识到，尽管这个政府换上了新面孔，但多年来维持其统治的残酷镇压机器依然存在，并且正在再次施压。

And this atmosphere of quiet tension is taking place amid growing signs of repression, of people being detained, of journalists being harassed, which shows to me that even though this government has a new face, the brutal repressive apparatus that has kept it in power for decades remains in place and is cracking down again.

听起来，委内瑞拉的每个人都在屏息以待接下来会发生什么。

It sounds like everyone in Venezuela is just kind of waiting with bated breath for what's to come.

那么我们来深入探讨一下。

So let's get into that.

我的第一个问题是：我们所看到的真的是政权更迭吗？

And my first question is, is what we're seeing actually regime change?

因为现在尘埃落定了一些，看起来政权实际上仍在委内瑞拉掌握之中。

Because now that the dust has settled a little bit, it seems as though the regime is actually still in power in Venezuela.

没错，娜塔莉。

That's right, Natalie.

政权依然存在。

The regime is in place.

不在这里的是马杜罗和他的妻子。

The people who are no longer here is Maduro and his wife.

大约有80人在这场事件中丧生，包括他的古巴保镖以及委内瑞拉平民和安全部队成员。

And around 80 people have died between his Cuban bodyguards and Venezuelan civilians, Venezuelan security service members.

但除此之外，我们看到的还是同一群人。

But beyond that, we are seeing the same cast of characters.

他的核心圈子大多保持不变。

Most of his inner circle is intact.

政权仍然掌握在德尔西·罗德里格斯手中，她普遍被称为德尔西，曾是马杜罗的副总统，在任何情况下都是第一顺位接班人。

It is in power and is led by Delsy Rodriguez, known universally as Delsy, who was Maduro's vice president, who was the first in line to replace him under any circumstances.

因此，还是同一群人统治着这个国家。

So the same characters are ruling the country.

好的。

Okay.

所以，现任掌权的副总统德尔西·罗德里格斯，是特朗普支持的人。

So Delsy Rodriguez, the vice president now in power, is someone that Trump has endorsed.

美国政府表示，他们将直接与她合作。

The administration says they're gonna be working directly with her.

我想谈谈为什么。

And I wanna talk about why.

为什么是她？

Why her?

因为，老实说，当你我讨论这个问题时，如果马杜罗不再掌权，最显而易见的合作人选本该是另一个人。

Because, honestly, when you and I have talked about this, the most obvious choice for who was gonna work with the Trump administration in the event that Maduro was no longer in power was someone else.

那就是著名的反对派领导人玛丽亚·卡里娜·马查多。

It was Maria Carina Machado, this famous opposition leader.

所以，阿纳托利，给我解释一下，为什么不是马查多，而是德尔斯伊？

So explain for me, Anatoly, why it's not Machado and why it's Delsy instead.

简短的回答是：连续性。

The short answer is continuity.

特朗普希望阻止委内瑞拉的毒品泛滥。

Trump wanted to stop flee flood of drugs from Venezuela.

他希望阻止移民。

He wanted to stop migrants.

但最重要的是，他明确表示想要委内瑞拉的石油。

But above all, he made it very clear he wanted Venezuelan oil.

而德尔萨·罗德里格斯成功塑造了自己作为委内瑞拉石油产业可靠守护者的形象，她被认为能够管理委内瑞拉的资源并保护外国利益，尤其是美国投资者的利益。

And Delsa Rodriguez has been able to sell herself as a reliable guardian of Venezuela's oil industry, as a person who can manage Venezuela resources and protect foreign interests, which in this case would be American investor interests.

那么马查多没能把自己塑造成这样的人物吗？

And Machado was not able to sell herself as that figure?

她没能。

She was not.

这或许是这一主题中最令人惊讶的地方。

And this is perhaps the biggest surprise of this theme.

马查多无疑是该国最受欢迎的政治人物。

Machado is by far the most popular politician in the country.

她在2024年领导了一场选举运动，使超过70%的委内瑞拉人投票支持反对派。

She has led an election campaign in 2024 that has led more than 70% of Venezuelans to vote for the opposition.

她还因这些努力获得了诺贝尔和平奖。

And she has won the Nobel Peace Prize for her efforts.

她享有全球性的认可与尊重。

She has global recognitions and global respect.

而且她拥有无可挑剔的保守派背景。

And she comes with impeccable conservative credentials.

她是位富有工业家的女儿。

She's the daughter of a wealthy industrialist.

她一贯支持自由市场、个人自由和基督教信仰，这些价值观正是传统共和党纲领的核心。

She has an impeccable record of supporting free markets, of supporting personal freedom, supporting Christian faith, all values at the heart of traditional Republican agenda.

但她成长于美国政治的另一个时期。

But she's a product of a different period of American politics.

马查多最严重的错误在于未能适应特朗普为美国右翼带来的变革。

And Machado's gravest mistake was not being able to adapt to the transformation that Trump has brought to the American rights.

你具体是什么意思？

What do you mean by that exactly?

嗯，最能定义马查多的形容词就是一致性。

Well, the adjective that defines Machado more than anything else is consistency.

她对自己的信念一直极为一致。

She has been extremely consistent in her belief.

她在政治纲领上一直极为一致。

She has been extremely consistent in her political agenda.

正是这种一致性，导致她在委内瑞拉最近的选举中失去了掌权的机会。

And this consistency is what brought her to the cost of gaining power in Venezuela during the last elections.

这就是她能够凝聚委内瑞拉民众的原因，因为人们相信她。

This is the reasons why she has galvanized Venezuelan populations because people believed in her.

他们相信她的价值观。

They believed in her values.

他们相信她所坚持的立场，相信她会保护他们，不会与马杜罗妥协，不会出卖他们。

They believed in what she stood for and that she would defend them, that she would not negotiate with Maduro, that she would not sell them out.

这种一致性是她的核心。

This consistency was at its core.

但在当今交易至上的华盛顿，这却成了她的劣势。

But in the current transactional Washington of today, this has become a liability.

她无法适应华盛顿如今这种高度交易化的政治方式——一种意识形态上无立场的做法，在这种做法中，信念和政策每天都会被抛弃、牺牲和调整，以迎合掌权者的好恶。

She has not been able to adjust to a very transactional approach to politics that we see in Washington, a ideologically agnostic approach to Washington where beliefs and policies are ditched and sacrificed and adjusted on daily basis to suit the the whims of people taking power.

这逐渐导致她在特朗普政府中失去盟友，并树敌越来越多，最终在委内瑞拉历史的关键时刻使她被边缘化。

And this has gradually led her to lose allies and make a growing number of enemies in the Trump administration, which eventually has contributed to her being sidelined at this crucial moment in Venezuelan history.

好的。

Okay.

你能再深入一点吗？

Can you go a little deeper there?

比如，给我举些例子，说明她为何无法适应。

Like, give me examples of how she wasn't able to adjust.

例如，当特朗普重返权力时，他对委内瑞拉的首要关注是让被关押在美国人获释并返回美国。

So, for example, when Trump returns to power, his initial focus on Venezuela is getting Americans detained there, out of jail, and back into The United States.

他派遣了特使。

And he sends his envoy.

他派了一位名叫理查德·格伦内尔的商人兼前驻德国大使前往加拉加斯，以谈判这项协议。

He sends a man called Richard Grunnell, a businessman and former ambassador to Germany, to Caracas, to negotiate the deal.

随后，格伦内尔抵达加拉加斯。

And then Grunel arrives in Caracas.

他联系了马查多，因为她是委内瑞拉反对派的代表。

He reaches out to Machado because she's the representative of Venezuela opposition.

当时她被视为美国利益的代表，于是他开始了对话。

She's seen at the time as representative of American interest, and he starts a dialogue.

他建立的关系很快便陷入僵局。

He starts a relationship that very quickly goes off rails.

因为营救美国人意味着要与马杜罗政府接触，意味着要进行谈判。

Because getting Americans out means talking to Maduro's government, means negotiating.

谈判对玛丽亚·卡琳娜·马查多来说是不可接受的。

Negotiating is an anathema for Maria Carina Machado.

几十年来，她一直主张自由不可谈判，民主不可谈判，绝不能妥协。

She has argued for decades that freedom is not negotiable, that democracy is not negotiable, that there can be no compromises.

这为理查德·格伦内尔与玛丽亚·卡琳娜·马查多之间的冲突埋下了伏笔，这种冲突在整个特朗普政府时期反复上演，因为她逐渐失去了天然盟友，并制造了新的敌人。

And that set the stage for a train wreck between Richard Grunnell and Maria Carina Machado, a clash that has repeated itself over and over throughout the Trump administration as she lost natural allies and created new enemies.

你的意思是，马查多如此纯粹，以至于完全反对任何与马杜罗谈判的想法。

You're saying, basically, Machado is such a purist that she's totally opposed to any notion of negotiating with Maduro.

这使得特朗普在委内瑞拉的主要谈判代表感到被疏远，而他本应去争取达成协议。

And this alienated Trump's lead negotiator in Venezuela, who's there to try to get a deal.

他去那里是为了达成协议，而且是为了达成经济协议。

He was there to try to get a deal, and he's there to get economic deals.

他开始与马杜罗政府官员谈判，协议内容是马杜罗交出委内瑞拉资源，以换取他暂时留任。

He started negotiating a deal with Maduro's officials that would see Maduro hand over Venezuelan resources in return for him staying in power, at least for the time being.

这完全违背了马查多一直以来所坚持的一切。

Again, this goes completely against everything that Machado has stood for.

随着时间推移，在选举后的数月里，随着委内瑞拉政府加强镇压，马查多的运动在委内瑞拉政治生活中日益边缘化。

And over time, in the months since the election, as Venezuelan government stepped up to repression, Machado's movement became increasingly marginalized in Venezuelan political life.

他们不得不越来越多地流亡海外。

They increasingly had to flee in exile.

马查多本人也不得不躲藏起来。

Machado herself had to go into hiding.

他们逐渐失去了与委内瑞拉街头真实情况的联系，而他们毫不妥协的立场意味着他们在委内瑞拉政府内部几乎没有联络渠道。

They have gradually lost touch with what is happening on the streets in Venezuela, and their uncompromising position meant they had very few contacts inside Venezuelan government.

因此，特朗普政府逐渐意识到，马查多及其助手提供给华盛顿的策略已经过时，且不准确。

So then the Trump administration, they have gradually come to realize that the strategies that Machado and her aides were providing to Washington were outdated, were were not accurate.

而且，反对派所依赖的情报或假设一再被证明是错误的。

And the intelligence or, you know, the assumptions being made by the opposition have proved wrong time and again.

这激怒了特朗普政府中那些试图制定切实可行计划以推翻马杜罗的官员。

And this has angered officials in the Trump administration that were trying to work out a credible plan of getting Maduro out of power.

所以听起来，他们开始对她的态度变差，部分原因是他们不相信她提供的信息有价值。

So it sounds like they start to sour on her in part because they don't believe she's giving valuable intel.

尽管我们知道，在最近几个月里，马查多一直在竭尽全力讨好特朗普政府，因为当时特朗普政府正在加大对马杜罗的压力。

And that's despite the fact that, as we know, in recent months, Machado was really doing everything she could to kind of ingratiate herself with the Trump administration as they began to dial up the pressure on Maduro.

她甚至将诺贝尔和平奖献给了特朗普。

She even dedicated her Nobel Peace Prize to Trump.

我想，所有这些都不够。

I guess all that wasn't enough.

所有这些都不够。

All that wasn't enough.

对我来说，这件事有一种悲剧色彩，因为她是一位道德操守无可挑剔的政治家。

And to me, there's a certain tragic element to this because this is a politician with impeccable moral credentials.

我的竞选纲领一直聚焦于委内瑞拉移民、 reunite 委内瑞拉家庭，以及让数百万逃离马杜罗政权的委内瑞拉人重返家园。

My chartal has built her presidential campaign on the focus on Venezuelan migrants, of reuniting Venezuelan families, of returning the millions of Venezuelans that have fled the country from Maduro, bringing them back home.

自从特朗普上台后，她便不再谈论委内瑞拉移民，因为这些人正是特朗普逮捕、驱逐、关押在海外监狱并遭受酷刑的对象，而我却保持沉默。

And since Trump took power, she has stopped talking about Venezuelan migrants because these are were the people that Trump was arresting, Trump was deporting, Trump was jailing in in foreign jails where we were tortured, and my shadow stayed silent.

在美国施压下，飞往委内瑞拉的航班逐渐取消，她却保持沉默。

As flights into the country were gradually canceled under American pressure, she stayed silent.

随着美国制裁收紧导致通货膨胀加剧，人民日常生活愈发艰难，她依然保持沉默。

As inflation rose under tightening American sanctions, complicating people's daily life, she has stayed silent.

这在委内瑞拉国内造成了政治资本的流失。

And this has caused a political capital inside the country.

她为了取悦这个人，牺牲了在委内瑞拉国内积累的大量政治好感。

She has sacrificed a lot of political goodwill that she has built inside Venezuela to please this one man.

她不惜刻意去赞美他。

She has gone out of her way to praise him.

她曾发表社论，称特朗普是西半球最伟大的自由捍卫者。

She has published opads saying that Trump is the greatest defender of freedom in the Western Hemisphere.

对于所有关注委内瑞拉局势的人来说，马查多的言论显然只针对一个人，她的整个策略就是争取特朗普站在她这一边。

It was very clear to everyone observing Venezuela that Machado is speaking to the audience of one, and her entire strategy has been on bringing Trump to her side.

到目前为止，她已经失败了。

And so far, she has failed.

你知道吗，特朗普在上周末的大型记者会上说，马查多在委内瑞拉根本没有支持。

You know, Trump said in this big press conference he gave over the weekend that Machado just didn't have the support in Venezuela.

根据你刚才说的，这真的属实吗？

So was that actually true based on what you just said?

委内瑞拉的可信民调非常有限，但我们现有的证据表明，她的民意支持率正从一个很高的水平逐渐、缓慢地流失。

Credible polling in Venezuela is very limited, but the evidence we have shows that her popular support has been gradually, very slowly, sipping away from a very high point.

对特朗普而言，关键在于，当他声称她缺乏支持时，他指的是那些能使她得以执政的人所给予的尊重。

Crucially for Trump, when he says that she doesn't have a respect, he is talking about respect to the people that would make it possible for her to govern.

马查多的僵化态度以及对施压而非谈判的专注，导致她失去了传统上支持其立场的委内瑞拉经济精英的支持，同时她也未能赢得自己一再强调对推翻马杜罗至关重要的武装部队的支持。

And Machado's inflexibility and focus on pressure rather than negotiation has meant that she has lost the support of Venezuela's economic elites that have traditionally supported their position, and she has not been able to gain the support of the armed forces that she herself has constantly said are crucial to removing Maduro.

为了取悦特朗普，她再次刻意模仿他的说法，称委内瑞拉政府是一个贩毒集团。

She has again, to please Trump, she has gone out of the way to mimic his talking point that Venezuelan government is a narco cartel.

她模仿了特朗普的语言，声称马杜罗正在向美国大量输送毒品和罪犯。

She has mimicked his language that Maduro is flooding United States with drugs and criminals.

这导致那些观看她演讲的军官、政府官员，以及真正掌控国家机器、手握武器的人，都被她描绘成贩毒集团的成员，成为需要从委内瑞拉公共生活中清除的问题的一部分。

And this has meant that for the officers watching her speeches, for the members of the governments, for the people that actually make the state sick and hold the guns that she was painting them as members of an Arco cartel, as part of a problem, as people that need to be eliminated from Venezuela's public life.

她一方面呼吁武装部队和政府雇员起来推翻马杜罗，另一方面却将他们污名化为贩毒集团成员，这种矛盾最终导致她在委内瑞拉政治体系内政治生涯的垮台。

And the dissonance between her calls for the armed forces and government employees to rise up against Maduro and the way she has branded them as members of an Arco cartel ended up spelling her political downfall inside the Venezuelan political system.

因此，讽刺的是，为了与特朗普保持一致，马查多说了这些实际上疏远了委内瑞拉内部所有她本需争取的精英阶层的话，而这些精英本是她让特朗普政府相信她有能力执政的关键。

So ironically, in order to align herself with Trump, Machado starts saying these things that actually alienate all these elites within Venezuela that she actually needs to have on board in order to persuade the Trump administration that she's a viable candidate to run the country.

对吗？

Is that right?

没错。

That's right.

事情正是这样发生的。

That's exactly what happened.

这些人掌权已久，而特朗普政府相信，要让国家迅速运转、保持稳定、防止崩溃并避免数十万移民涌向其边境，确保石油持续流向美国并增加石油产量，就必须与现有掌权者合作。

These are people that have been in charge for a very long time, and the Trump administration became convinced that to get the country running quickly, to keep it stable, to keep it from collapsing and sending hundreds of thousands of migrants to its borders, to keep the oil flowing to The United States, to boost that flow of oil, they needed to work for people who were already in charge.

因此，我们选择了德尔西，而不是玛丽亚·卡里娜·马查多。

And that's why we picked Delsy over Maria Carina Machado.

这正是当前政治剧变的巨大讽刺：尽管德尔西有着马克思主义背景，尽管她是被美国称为毒枭恐怖分子的人亲自挑选的门生，尽管她在镇压机器中扮演了关键角色，但白宫仍认为，她是所有可选人物中最有希望将委内瑞拉纳入美国势力范围的人选。

That's the great irony of the current political drama that Delsy, despite of her Marxist roots, despite being the handpicked protege of a person labeled as a narcoterrorist by The United States, despite playing a crucial part in a repressive machine, the White House has decided that she is the most likely candidate among the available options to bring Venezuela into the American sphere of influence.

我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

你好。

Hi.

我是伊万·彭。

I'm Ivan Penn.

我是《纽约时报》的能源记者。

I'm an energy reporter for The New York Times.

我认为很多人把电力视为理所当然，但它却是当前一些最重要新闻事件的关键组成部分。

I think a lot of people take electricity for granted, but it's an essential piece of some of the biggest stories right now.

人工智能的兴起、气候变化的威胁，以及普通民众面临的电费不断上涨的实际困难。

The rise of artificial intelligence, the threat of climate change, and the real challenges that everyday people are facing with increasing electric bills.

我每天与专家交谈，有时前往偏远地区，调查能源在这些重大问题中所起的作用。

I spend my days talking to experts, sometimes traveling to really remote places, and investigating the role that energy plays in these huge issues.

我只是《纽约时报》成百上千名记者中的一员，每位记者都是自己报道领域的专家，都怀有同样的敬业精神。

I'm just one of hundreds and hundreds of journalists at the Times, experts in what they cover, who carry the same level of commitment to their reporting.

这就是《纽约时报》的美妙之处。

And that's the beauty of The New York Times.

我们所有人共同努力，帮助您更好地理解并认清当今的世界。

We're all working together to help you better understand and make sense of the world today.

所以，如果这引起了你的共鸣，而你还没有订阅，可以前往 nytimes.com/subscribe。

So if that sounds like something that connects with you and you're not a subscriber yet, you can go to nytimes.com/subscribe.

好的。

Okay.

让我们谈谈委内瑞拉的新领导人，正如你所说，大家都叫她德尔西。

Let's talk about Venezuela's new leader who, as you said, everyone calls Delsi.

从很多方面来看，她似乎并不是特朗普政府会支持的合适人选。

She sounds like an unlikely choice for the Trump administration in many ways to support.

解释一下她是谁，以及特朗普政府看中了她什么。

Explain who she is and what the Trump administration sees in her.

首先，他们认为德尔西是一位有能力的经济管理者，而她赢得的这一声誉源于一段非常出人意料的经历。

First and foremost, they see Delsy as a capable economic manager, and that reputation that she has earned has come at the end of a very unexpected journey.

她是马克思主义游击队员的女儿，这位父亲曾在冷战期间，因支持亲美政府而遭到安全部队的酷刑。

She is the daughter of a Marxist guerrilla who was tortured by the security forces over previous pro American governments during the Cold War.

因此，她出身于无可挑剔的社会主义背景，但同时也家境富裕。

So she comes from a background of impeccable socialist credentials, but they also come from money.

她享受着相当优越的童年成长环境。

And she enjoyed quite a privileged upbringing.

她曾在法国上大学，后来在哥哥的提携下进入政府，逐步在查韦斯主义政权中晋升。

She went to university in France, and she joins the government, the current regime under the wings of her older brother, going up in the ranks of the Chavismo government.

而她的晋升在2019年左右急剧加速，当时委内瑞拉正面临美国对其石油产业实施制裁带来的巨大经济压力。

And that rise really accelerated around 2019 when Venezuela is facing tremendous economic pressure from United States that had just sanctions its oil industry.

收入已经崩溃。

The revenues have collapsed.

马杜罗政府连维持国家基本运转都困难重重。

The Maduro government has struggled to just keep the lights on in the country.

马杜罗转向德尔西，基本上让她来解决这个问题。

And Maduro turns to Delsi and basically tells her to fix it.

那她做了什么？

And what does she do?

她解决了吗？

Does she fix it?

她彻底重构了委内瑞拉经济。

She completely reengineers Venezuelan economy.

她和一群与她结盟的技术官僚展开了一项进程，在极短时间内抛弃了政府多年来赖以合法性的社会主义教条——价格管制、货币管制、关注委内瑞拉穷人需求，并将其转变为一个完全自由的市场经济，金钱至上的时代，投资成为唯一标准。

She and a group of technocrats allied to her began a process that, in a very short period, discarded the socialist tropes that the government had based its legitimacy on for many years, price controls, currency controls, focus on the needs of the Venezuelan poor, and turned it into a free for all market economy where money ruled and investment was the only merit.

令人惊讶的是，一位马克思主义者的女儿竟成了接近资本主义改革的可信赖执行者。

It's so interesting that the daughter of a Marxist became this trusted steward of something approaching capitalist reform.

嗯，从很多方面来说，委内瑞拉是一个极度腐败的国家，今天的腐败程度和当年名义上奉行社会主义原则时一样严重。

Well, in many ways, you know, Venezuela is an extremely corrupt country, and that is as corrupt today as it was under the nominally socialist principles.

但在实际政策上，德尔西已将委内瑞拉转变为一个彻底的资本主义社会——几乎没有任何监管，几乎没有规则，金钱成为支配社会以及国家与公民之间互动的唯一因素。

But in terms of actual policies, Delsea has turned Venezuela into a radically capitalist society that there's practically no regulation, that there are practically no rules, that money is the only variable that that governs society and and governs the interaction between the states and its citizens.

但这有效吗？

But did it work, though?

也就是说，它稳定了经济吗？这正是马杜罗最初要求的。

Like, did it stabilize the economy, which is what Maduro was originally asking for?

它确实奏效了，并带来了一段温和的增长期。

It did work and led to a period of moderate growth.

从2021年开始，通货膨胀得到了缓解。

Starting 2021, the inflation subsided.

人们开始创业。

People started to open up businesses.

人们开始更多地旅行。

People started to travel more.

石油产量开始逐步回升。

The oil production began to gradually edge up.

记住，娜塔莉，这一切都是从一个非常低的起点开始的。

And remember, Natalie, that this has all started from a very low base.

我们谈论的不是拉丁美洲的迪拜。

We're not talking about Dubai of Latin America.

我们谈论的是一个经历了严重经济崩溃的国家，数百万人逃离，人们遭受营养不良，而这些改革给了他们一丝经济稳定。

But we're talking about a country that had suffered a tremendous economic collapse where millions have fled, where people have suffered from malnutrition, and it gave them a modicum of economic stability.

好的。

Okay.

所以听起来，德塞拉推动的改革虽然没有让财富大规模回归委内瑞拉人民，但确实稳住了经济局势。

So it sounds like the reforms that Delsea helped engineer, they didn't, you know, bring wealth back en masse to Venezuelans, but they did right the economic ship.

它们帮助止住了血流。

They helped stanch the bleeding.

这对政权在委内瑞拉民众中的声望有任何帮助吗？

Did that do anything to help the regime's standing with Venezuelans?

我的意思是，显然他们在上一次选举中还是投了反对派，所以我想答案是否定的。

I mean, obviously, they still voted for the opposition in the last election, so I would imagine the answer is no.

对吧？

Right?

答案是否定的。

The answer is no.

而2024年的选举证明，政府确实竭尽全力向委内瑞拉人民推销自己。

And the elections of twenty twenty four have proven that the government had gone out of its way to sell itself to Venezuela.

我们代表稳定，而反对派代表混乱。

And as we as stability, the opposition is chaos.

选择我们吧。

Stick with us.

你可以和我们共存。

You can live with us.

你可以和我们一同呼吸。

You can breathe with us.

然而，超过70%的委内瑞拉人，包括大量公共部门员工和穷人，仍然投票支持他们的立场，支持玛丽亚·卡琳娜·马查多的候选人，这充分展现了民众对马杜罗总统的极度疲惫与反感。

And still, more than 70% of Venezuelans, including massive proportions of public sector workers and the poor, voted for their position, voted for the candidate of Maria Carina Machado, showing just the scale of exhaustion and repulsion that this population has against president Maduro.

那么我们之前谈到的精英阶层呢？

And what about the elites that we talked about earlier?

他们如何看待德尔斯伊在这场局势中的角色？

How do they see Delsy in all of this?

德尔斯伊的改革为他们创造了发展空间，让他们能够进行投资。

Delsea's reforms gave them space to to grow, gave them space to invest.

再次强调，我们并不是在谈论大规模的投资。

Again, not talking about massive investments.

我们也不是在谈论巨大的增长。

We're not talking about tremendous growth.

我们说的是一个有钱人能够开始赚更多钱的环境。

We're talking about a climate where people that have money can start making more money.

而马查多的主张是彻底改革这一制度，废除整个体系，从头开始。

And Machado's message is overhauling this completely, scrapping this whole system, is is starting from scratch.

而商界渴望稳定，与马查多激进变革的主张背道而驰。

And business wants stability and be torn against Machado's message of radical change.

这真的很有趣。

It's really interesting.

对吧？

Right?

因为马查多在很多方面也是他们更自然的盟友。

Because Machado, in many ways, is a more natural ally of theirs too.

对吧？

Right?

她来自一个他们可能熟悉的工业家家庭。

She comes from this family they probably know, this industrialist.

她拥有作为自由市场资本主义者的 impeccable 资历，但在这里，她却是那个获得广泛民众支持却失去了这些精英支持的人。

She has these impeccable credentials as a free market capitalist, and yet here, she's the one with the broad based popular support who's lost the support of these elites.

而德尔西虽然似乎没有这种民众支持，但她却赢得了这群仍然在该国极具影响力的企业巨头的支持。

While Delsy doesn't have that popular support, it sounds like, but she has won over this group of business titans that is still incredibly influential in this country.

这是一个根本性的悖论，娜塔莉。

This is a fundamental paradox, Natalie.

我再也无法更好地总结这一点了。

I have could not have summarized it better.

我认为这一切都表明，经济自由并不总是与政治自由相关联。

And I think all it just goes to show that economic freedoms do not always correlate with political freedoms.

事实上，对特朗普来说，重要的是精英们的交易和投资。

And the reality is that for Trump, what matters to him is the deals and the investments of the elites.

这使他逐渐与自称技术专家的德尔西维结盟，后者能为他带来委内瑞拉的财富，而不是玛丽亚·库雷和马查多——后者承诺政治解放，但带来的是动荡不稳的经济环境。

And that has led him to gradually ally with Del Civi, the self styled technocrat who could bring him Venezuelan riches over Marie Curie and Machado, who was promising political liberation, but a very volatile and unstable economic environment.

好吧。

Okay.

所以现在我认为我明白为什么特朗普认为德尔西比马查多更可取。

So now I think I get why Delsy is preferable to Machado in the eyes of Trump.

但我仍然不明白的是，为什么德尔西比马杜罗更可取。

What I still don't understand though is why Delsi is preferable to Maduro.

因为您之前告诉我们，阿纳托利，每次您来讨论这个问题时，都说马杜罗实际上很乐意让美国进入委内瑞拉的油田，作为与特朗普达成协议的一部分，放弃这些自然资源。

Because you've told us, Anatoli, the few times that you've come on to talk about this, that Maduro was actually happy to let The US into Venezuela's oil fields, to give up those natural resources as part of a potential deal with Trump.

那为什么特朗普拒绝了这个提议，反而去选择一个听起来与德爾西的协议非常相似的方案呢？

Why did Trump reject that only to go for what sounds like a very similar deal with Delsi?

目前我们对这个问题还没有完全清晰的认识，娜塔莉。

I don't think we have perfect clarity to that question at the moment, Natalie.

我猜测，针对马杜罗的运动——将他塑造成一名毒品恐怖分子和与美国交战的贩毒集团头目——已经走得太过火了，特朗普无法容忍他，也无法与他达成协议。

My hunch is that the campaign against Maduro, the campaign to Brandon, a narcoterrorist, and the cartel chief who's at war with The United States has gone simply too far for Trump to tolerate him and make a deal with him.

请记住，虽然石油是特朗普对委内瑞拉政策的核心驱动力，但并非唯一因素。

Remember that while oil is the driving force of Trump's policy towards Venezuela, it's not the only one.

没错。

Right.

而且他的政府内部还有顾问。

And there are advisers within his administration.

他的政府里有些人正推动着与斯蒂芬·米勒一致的目标，重点关注移民和非法毒品问题。

There are people in in his administration that are pushing towards our goals with Stephen Miller with his focus on migration and illegal drugs.

国务卿马尔科·卢比奥一直自诩为反共斗士。

There's secretary of state Marco Rubio, who has been a declared anti communist warrior.

这些人一直是马杜罗的死敌。

These people have been sworn enemies of Maduro.

当马杜罗一再拒绝特朗普政府为他提供体面退路和金色降落伞的尝试时，特朗普的立场愈发强硬。

And as Maduro repeatedly rebuffs Trump administration's attempts to provide him a soft landing, to provide him a golden parachute, Trump's position hardens.

到了十二月，他的耐心终于耗尽。

And by December, his patience finally snaps.

面对美国日益明确的最后通牒，马杜罗的回应是表现得像个无忧无虑的派对爱好者。

Maduro's response to increasingly explicit ultimatums for America was to present himself as a carefree partier.

他经常在电视上跳舞。

He constantly dances on television.

他唱着‘别打战争’。

He sings no crazy war.

你知道，他舞跳得不错。

You know, he's he's a good dancer.

你知道，他经常做出这些举动，而且是定期的。

You know, he he puts up for moves and, you know, he does on regular basis.

疯狂的战争。

Crazy war.

而且

And

在某个时刻，特朗普爆发了。

at some point, Trump snaps.

等等。

Wait.

你是说，阿纳托利，马杜罗在国家电视台跳舞，真的是导致这一切发生的关键因素吗？

Are you saying, Anatoli, that Maduro dancing on national television is an actual factor here in everything that ends up happening?

我的理解是，这是压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草。

My understanding, it was the straw that broke the camel's back.

具体是什么意思？

Meaning what exactly?

特朗普看到马杜罗跳舞，心想：这人根本没把我当回事，是吗？

That Trump saw Maduro dancing and said, this guy's not taking me seriously or what?

意思是，特朗普将马杜罗持续的跳舞视为一种羞辱，是马杜罗在挑战特朗普的底线，告诉特朗普：我在这里，我想待多久就待多久。

Meaning that Trump saw the ongoing dancing as a humiliation, as Maduro calling Trump's bluff, as Maduro telling Trump, I'm here and I'm here for as long as I want to be.

而特朗普无法容忍他所认为的个人侮辱。

And Trump could not tolerate what he saw as a personal affront.

哇。

Wow.

我们真的生活在一个疯狂的时代。

We are truly living in wild times.

记住，娜塔莉，历史往往是由一些看似微不足道、平凡的 circumstance 所促成的。

Remember, mean, Natalie, history is often made by seemingly sort of small banal circumstances.

对吧？

Right?

历史是由石油迁移、毒品等重大因素和力量累积而成的，但你知道吗，也可能只是舞台上一段小小的电子舞曲，就足以让天平倾斜，促成一项改变西半球历史进程的重大政策决定。

It's accumulation of major factors, major forces like oil migration, drugs, but, you know, it can be something as sort of small as a little techno dance on a public stage that can tilt the scales towards a momentous policy decision that will change the history of Western Hemisphere perhaps forever.

好的。

Okay.

我们将来有充足的时间来讨论这个未来。

We'll have plenty of time to talk about that future.

但目前，特朗普政府寄希望于德塞拉。

But for now, the Trump administration is counting on Delsea.

值得指出的是，就在前几天，她还强烈反对他们。

And this is someone who, in the last few days, has come out very strongly against them, it's worth saying.

她说马杜罗是委内瑞拉唯一的总统。

She said Maduro is the only president of Venezuela.

她自称是副总统。

She refers to herself as the vice president.

我不禁想知道我们该如何理解这一点。

And I'm wondering what we should make of that.

我知道，仍然有许多政权内部的人掌握着国家实权，我不禁怀疑，她这是在向他们、向国内观众示好吗？

I know that there are a lot of people from the regime that are still in power in the country, and I wonder if this is her playing to them, to that domestic audience.

她必须安抚他们。

She has to appease them.

对吧？

Right?

没错。

That's right.

请记住，这次袭击对构成马杜罗政权核心的武装部队和安全部门来说是一次重大羞辱。

Remember that the attack was a major humiliation to the armed forces and security officials that formed the core of Maduro's regime.

这是一次造成80人死亡、在首都加拉加斯引发严重破坏的行动。

It was an operation that cost the life of 80 people, causing major destructions in capital Caracas.

德尔西不可能只是挥挥手打发我们，然后张开双臂欢迎美国人。

Delsy could not just sort of wave us off and open her arms to Americans.

你知道，她必须满足国内观众的需求。

You know, she has to satisfy the domestic audience.

她必须向执政党的忠实支持者表明，她不是美国的傀儡；这些人虽然人数不多，但却掌握着大量武器，她必须展现自己会捍卫国家主权和国家地位。

She has to show to the ruling party's faithful, who are not numerous in numbers, but who hold a lot of guns, that she's not American pawn, that she's someone who will defend the country's sovereignty, who will defend the country's standing.

与此同时，她还得满足美国的要求。

While at the same time, she has to satisfy American demands.

你知道，特朗普政府及其官员一再表示，德西必须听从他们的指令，否则她将面临与马杜罗同样的下场。

You know, the Trump administration and his officials have repeatedly stated that Delsy must do their bidding or else she will face the same fate as Maduro.

所以她试图兼顾双方观众。

So she's trying to play for both audiences.

正如你所说，她一开始对美国发表了非常强硬的言论。

And as you said, she started off making very sort of aggressive remarks towards America.

但仅仅几天、甚至几小时内，她的立场就软化了。

But just in a matter of days, in a matter of hours, her position has softened.

她发表了一份声明，呼吁与美国企业合作，追求和平共处、携手合作、开展联合商业项目。

She has issued a statement calling for corporations with The United States, for peaceful coexistence, for working together, for joint business ventures.

让你好好消化一下，娜塔莉。

And just let it sink for you, Natalie.

这是对刚刚炸毁你们首都、造成80名平民死亡的政府所发出的声明，而你却基本上张开双臂欢迎他们的投资和双边关系。

This is a statement towards the government that has just blown up your capital and killed 80 people living in the capital, and you are basically opening your arms to their investments and to bilateral relations.