CEO们对特朗普关税的真实想法

大家好，我是《每日播报》的迈克尔·巴尔巴罗。今天我要介绍一种收听播客的新方式。你可能会想，我不需要这个。毕竟，你现在显然能听到我说话。

Hey. It's Michael Barbaro from The Daily. I'm here with a new way that you can listen to podcasts. And maybe you're thinking, I don't need that. After all, you are clearly hearing me right now.

但我要告诉你，某种程度上你确实需要这个。你会希望生活中有它。它实在太方便了。现在在纽约时报APP底部，你会看到一副耳机和'收听'字样。点击后就能找到我们的节目，还有埃兹拉·克莱因、《头条新闻》、《硬分叉》、《专访》等众多优质节目。

But I'm telling you, you kinda do need this. You want this in your life. It is so convenient. So right now on the New York Times app, down at the bottom, you'll see a set of headphones and the word listen. Once you tap on it, you can find our show and so many other great shows, Ezra Klein, Headlines, Hardfork, The Interview.

除了这些播客，你还能获取新闻故事的有声版——被朗读的文章。这样你就能在跑步、做饭或开车回家时收听《纽约时报杂志》那些精彩的长篇报道。这真的太棒了，让你随时随地轻松找到收听内容。如果你还没有纽约时报APP，别担心。但俗话说，赶紧（别慢走）去手机应用商店下载，然后点击屏幕底部的'收听'。

On top of all those podcasts, you can get narrated articles, audio versions of news stories. So you can turn on that big, incredible New York Times Magazine story while you run or cook or drive home. It is truly great, and it makes it so easy to find something to listen to anywhere and everywhere. If you don't have the New York Times app, no problem. But as they say, run do not walk to the App Store on your phone, get the New York Times app, and then tap listen at the bottom of the screen.

好了，现在回到今天的节目。

Okay. Now back to today's episode.

这里是《纽约时报》的娜塔莉·基特罗夫为您带来的《每日播报》。上周，特朗普总统对多个国家实施了新一轮惩罚性关税。迄今为止，经济在其贸易战中表现出了韧性，但这种情况能持续多久尚不明朗。今天，我与同事、《交易录》主编安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金探讨了企业CEO们私下向他透露的关于特朗普关税的看法，以及他们认为事态将如何发展。

From The New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitroef. This is The Daily. Last week, president Trump hit several countries with yet another round of punishing tariffs. So far, the economy's been resilient in the face of his trade war, but it's unclear how long that'll last. Today, I talked to my colleague, DealBook editor Andrew Ross Sorkin, about what CEOs are telling him privately about Trump's tariffs and where they think all of this is headed.

今天是8月11日，星期一。安德鲁，欢迎来到节目。

It's Monday, August 11. Andrew, welcome to the show.

谢谢邀请。

Thanks for having me.

我们邀请你是因为你是消息最灵通、人脉最广的商业记者之一。上周你刚在CNBC与总统直接对话过。

We are coming to you because you are one of the most deeply sourced and best connected business reporters out there. You literally talked to the president on CNBC last week.

是的，那次经历相当疯狂。

I did. It was kinda wild.

确实令人惊叹。你经常与那些数月来在关税起伏中周旋的企业高管交流。感觉这个问题我们在节目中已经反复问过，但请帮我理解当前局势：特朗普的关税政策现在处于什么状态？

Kind of amazing. And you're regularly talking to business executives who've been navigating these ups and downs of tariffs for months. I feel like by this point, we've asked this question on the show over and over again. But help me make sense of this moment. What is the status of Trump's tariffs as of right now?

重大转变在于，经过数月对关税的种种猜测——包括最终税率会是多少、会有多严厉、企业该如何应对——如今关税政策终于落地。四月份总统曾称之为‘解放日’，当时他宣布了这些高得惊人的关税，有些甚至超过100%。

So the big shift is that after many, many months of speculation about tariffs, about what the ultimate rates would look like, about how severe they would be, and how businesses would have to navigate them, that the tariffs are actually here. So we had what the president called Liberation Day back in April. Right. He announced these remarkably high tariffs. I mean, we're talking about numbers in excess of a 100%.

某些商品的税率高达145%。全球商界领袖和政界人士集体炸开了锅。但过去几个月里，这些关税措施被不断推迟执行。

In some cases, a 145%. And business leaders, politicians around the world had a collective freak out. Yep. But over the last several months, those tariff rates continually got delayed and postponed.

没错，华尔街还流传着那个‘塔可饼’梗图。

Right. We got that taco meme on Wall Street.

塔可饼梗图。

The taco meme.

特朗普总是临阵退缩。

Trump always chickens out.

特朗普总是临阵退缩。如今到了八月份，我们总算大致看清了关税税率的框架。

Trump always chickens out. And so here we are in the month of August, and we now have, in large part, a framework for what the tariff rates are gonna be.

特朗普总统对90多个国家实施的全面全球关税已正式生效。

President Trump's sweeping global tariffs for more than 90 countries have come into effect.

包括日本、英国和欧盟。

Including Japan, The UK, and the European Union.

至少从某种程度上说，总统这次没有完全退缩。

And the president, to some degree, at least isn't totally chickening out.

这可能是贸易领域乃至更广泛范围内有史以来达成的最重大协议。

This is probably the biggest deal ever reached in any capacity, trade or beyond trade.

现在，如果你是一家将商品进口到美国的美国公司，你就是在给山姆大叔（美国政府）开支票。

And now if you are a US company that is importing goods into The United States, you are writing a check to Uncle Sam.

如今有数千亿美元涌入我国。我们多年前就该这么做了。

We have hundreds of billions of dollars pouring into our country now. We should have done this many years ago.

那么我们现在实际看到的税率具体是多少呢？

So what are some of the rates that we're now looking at actually amount to?

如果商品来自欧盟，你要支付15%的关税；来自日本也是15%；而此刻来自中国的商品，实际只需支付30%，但未来可能升至125%——因为这部分政策尚未最终确定。

So if goods are coming in from the EU, you're paying 15%. If goods are coming in from Japan, you're paying 15%. If goods are coming in from China right this moment, you're paying actually only 30% with the prospect that you could be paying a 125% because that piece of the puzzle has not been fit into the puzzle.

仍未敲定。

Still unsettled.

仍未敲定。顺便说，印度也是未定状态——50%关税。

Still unsettled. By the way, India unsettled. 50%.

没错。安德鲁，刚才宣布的印度50%惊人税率是怎么回事？这真的让我很意外，我想很多人都感到震惊。

Right. What was that, Andrew? That shocking rate on India that was just announced of 50% really took me by surprise. I think it took a lot of people by surprise.

这对美国政府和我们与印度的关系是个巨大转变。过去几年，我们一直在推动企业撤离中国等地，将制造业转移到印度。但印度一直是俄罗斯石油的最大进口国之一，实际上支撑着俄罗斯经济。特朗普现在表示要用关税这个'棋子'来改变这种局面。

Well, it's a huge about face for the US government and our country's relationship with India. For the last several years, we have been trying to actually push a lot of companies to actually get out of places like China and move their manufacturing to places like India. But India has been one of the biggest importer of oil from Russia, and so they have been effectively propping up the Russian economy. And Trump is now saying that he's going to use the tariff chess piece, if you will, to change that dynamic.

好的。那么我们对印度征收高额关税，全球各地税率不一，感觉这些政策已切实生效。你接触的CEO们、高管们、投资者和政策制定者反应如何？

Okay. So we have these huge tariffs on India. We have different rates all over the world, a sense that these things are really in effect. How are all of the CEOs, all the executives, the investors, the policymakers that you talk to reacting?

说实话，令人惊讶的是他们现在比想象中平静得多。他们可能不喜欢，但似乎正在接受这是新常态。更意外的是市场和投资阶层对此的淡定态度——要知道四月份时，不仅CEO们恐慌，股市也暴跌，直到总统推迟了这些关税。

Honestly, the surprising thing is at this point, they're actually a lot calmer about it all than you might imagine. They may not like it, but I think they're recognizing and deciding that this is their new normal. And the other thing that's so surprising is just how sanguine the markets and the investor class has been around this. Because, you know, back in April, there really was a freak out, not just among the CEOs, but the stock market fell precipitously until the president delayed and postponed these tariffs.

是的，我记得那件事。

Yep. I remember that.

你知道，最近几天市场要么持平，要么实际上涨，这表明市场正在企稳。某种程度上，他们表示这是可以接受的。

You know, now in recent days, you've had the market either flat or actually go up, which suggests that the market is settling in. And to some degree, they're saying this is okay.

好的，给我解释一下这个情况。

Okay. Just explain that to me.

现在这些关税已成为一种常态。无论如何，至少在未来几年，甚至几十年（我说的是复数形式的几十年），人们意识到我们将不得不面对某种形式的关税。顺便说一句，这些关税可能会变化，有涨有跌，但现在有一种感觉，它就在这里。我们看到了实际可能的样子，最低端可能在10%，最高端可能在30%左右。因此，他们开始意识到，我们必须计划与之共存。

There's a state of permanence now about these tariffs. One way or the other, for at least the next several years, if not the next decades, and I say decades plural, I think there's a recognition that we are going to be living with some form of tariff. And by the way, maybe those tariffs will change and go up and down, but there's now a sense that it's here. There's a window into what that actually looks like, somewhere between 10% on the lowest end and maybe 30% on the highest end. And so, they're starting to realize we're just going to have to plan to live with this.

对。不过，我不想夸大所有人都对此感到满意的感觉。对吧？在美国企业的董事会和高管办公室里，他们很担心。他们只是在说，好吧，我们必须想办法应对这种担忧。

Right. Now, I don't want to overstate the sense that everybody's cool with this. Right? Inside the boardrooms and the corner offices of corporate America, they're worried. They're just saying, okay, we're gonna have to figure out how to deal with our worry.

这与过去几个月的情况不同，那时他们在说，我们很担心，我们很恐慌，认为如果能见到总统，就能让他放弃所有这些。现在他们意识到情况并非如此，于是他们说，好吧，我们真的必须想办法应对了。

And that's different than the last couple of months of, okay, we're worried, we're freaked out, and we think that somehow if we can just get to the president, we're gonna somehow get him to back off all of this. And now that they've realized that that's not the case, they're like, okay. We have to actually just figure out what to do about it.

我们能具体谈谈这个吗？到目前为止，CEO们是如何应对这些关税的？我的意思是，我能想象这条路非常艰难。

Can we get into that actually? Up until now, how have CEOs navigated these tariffs? I mean, I can imagine it's been a really rough road.

我认为有两件事一直在发生。一是他们一直在前往华盛顿朝圣，去见立法者，试图见到总统，试图见到他身边的所有副手和助手，拼命试图说服他们放弃这些关税，但显然没有成功。

I think there's two things that have been going on. One is they've been making pilgrimages to Washington to see lawmakers, to try to see the president, to try to see all of his deputies and lieutenants around him, and desperately try to persuade them away from this, clearly unsuccessfully.

显然。

Clearly.

他们一直在做的另一件事是花费大量时间重新思考他们的供应链。他们能否将货物从一个地方转移到另一个地方？在某些情况下，他们试图尽早将尽可能多的供应品运入美国，以赶在关税之前。例如，福特公司就曾派卡车在墨西哥和美国边境来回穿梭，尽可能多地将供应品运到美国，因为他们知道这些关税会打击他们。

The other thing they've been doing is spending an extraordinary amount of time trying to rethink their supply chain. Can they move goods from one place to the other? In certain cases, they were trying to get as much of their supplies into The United States early to try to get ahead of the tariffs. So, you had Ford, for example, literally sending trucks back and forth between the border of Mexico and The US, bringing as many supplies to The US as they could because they knew they're gonna slap us with these tariffs.

好吧。所以他们拼命想让特朗普团队退让。这行不通。他们一直在试图囤货以避免关税冲击。

Okay. So they're desperately trying to get the Trump team to back off. That doesn't work. They've been trying to stockpile to avoid the hit of tariffs.

没错。

Right.

与此同时，他们一直没有涨价。这真是个谜。到底怎么回事？为什么他们没有把这些关税成本转嫁给消费者？

In the meantime, they haven't been raising prices. That's been a big mystery. What's going on there? Why haven't they passed on the cost of these tariffs to consumers?

首先我要自我检讨，和很多人一样，我四月份时以为我们会很快看到物价上涨。

So first of all, just mea culpa myself, which is I think I, like a lot of people, thought in April that we were gonna see higher prices and higher prices super quickly.

我喜欢你承认这一点。

I love that you're admitting this.

你看，当看到总统突然宣布某些商品要征收145%的关税时，任何人都会说如果真实施，价格肯定要涨。我第一个误判是这些措施会被推迟。另外和美国各大零售企业CEO及制造商交流时，他们说目前都在尽量自行消化关税成本。

Well, look, when you saw the president out with, in some cases, tariffs that were supposed to be implemented overnight at a 145%, you would invariably say, if in fact that's true, prices should go up. So the first piece that I was just wrong about was actually that these things would get delayed and postponed. The other thing though, when you talk to CEOs of some of the big retail companies and just any major manufacturer here in The US is they say that they've been trying to eat as much of the tariff costs so far as they can.

为什么呢？

And why is that?

有趣的是回顾疫情期间，企业采取了快速涨价策略。当时他们非常担心通胀，甚至会在自身成本上涨前就提价。所以我以为这次企业也会在关税实施前抢先涨价。

It's interesting because if you go back to the pandemic, companies did something called taking up price very quickly. They were very worried about inflation, and they would almost raise prices even before they got hit with the costs themselves. Right. And so I thought and I think a lot of people thought, okay. Even before the tariffs are here, companies are just gonna raise the prices because they wanna get ahead of them.

他们要重复疫情期间的套路。

They're gonna repeat their pandemic playbook.

正是。但这次有两个不同因素：一是当前经济不如疫情期间强劲，企业担心市场无法承受在其销售体量下的涨价，谁先涨价谁就可能丢失市场份额。

Exactly. Two things have come into play that are different. One is that the economy is not as strong as it was during the pandemic. And so there was a real concern that actually the market can't really accept a much higher price at the kind of volume that some of these companies are selling their products at. That if you were the first mover to raise prices, you would actually lose market share.

基本上，如果你是第一个涨价的，比如沃尔玛，顾客可能会转向塔吉特。确实如此。

Basically, if you're the first one to raise your prices, if you're a Walmart, your customers might turn to a Target. Exactly.

另外一点，这更多是坊间传闻，就是商界领袖们普遍认为，鉴于总统倾向于直接批评他们（甚至更甚），仅仅是涨价这一表象就可能招致总统公开点名。今年早些时候就发生过这种情况，当时有新闻报道称亚马逊考虑在网站上直接标注关税成本。结果报道一出（顺便说这报道有误），总统一两个小时后就在公开场合批评亚马逊，杰夫·贝索斯随即与总统通了电话。

And the other thing, and this is more anecdotal, is a sense among business leaders that given the president's propensity to critique them directly, if not more than that, that just the optics of raising prices could cause the president to come out publicly and single them out. You saw this happen earlier this year already when there was a news report that Amazon was considering putting literally on the website the cost of the tariffs. Right. The day that happened, the president was out there an hour or two later after that report, which was erroneous, by the way. But he was out there criticizing Amazon, and Jeff Bezos was on the phone with the president.

明白了。虽然这看似显而易见，但请再详细解释一下——CEO们到底在害怕什么？他们究竟认为总统发怒后会引发什么后果？

Okay. And this may seem obvious, but just slow down here for me a little bit. Explain what the CEOs are so afraid of. I mean, what is it that they actually think will happen once the president gets so angry with them?

听着。这位总统习惯针对特定行业和他不喜欢的公司，原因五花八门。我们见过他对待美国大学的方式，打压过大型律所，还阻挠过派拉蒙与CBS新闻的合并，直到达成和解才放行。

Look. I think this president has taken to targeting certain industries, certain companies that he doesn't like for whatever reason. We saw his approach to universities in America. We saw him go after some of the big law firms in America. We saw him go after Paramount and CBS News, for example, and not allow a merger to take place until a settlement was reached.

所以商界有足够多的前车之鉴让他们意识到：总统不仅会在Truth Social上发文，如果他动用监管机器来对付我们，他完全有能力也真的会这么做。我认为这在某种程度上对整个商界形成了威慑，让他们不敢做任何可能触怒总统的事。

So I think that there's enough examples that the business community looks at and goes, it's not just that he's going to write something on Truth Social. If he wants to send his regulatory apparatus after us in one way or another, he can and he will. And that's, I think, some degree, just a deterrent for the entire business world when it comes to doing anything that they think would cause his wrath.

根据你这些私下交流，能否分享些见解——这种恐惧如何影响公司内部运作？如何改变决策过程？

So based on those private conversations that you're having, if you can share some of the learnings that you've had, how does that fear operate within a company? How does it change your decision making?

举个具体例子：某公司考虑聘用一位拜登政府前雇员（并非知名人物）。在决定是否录用时，他们居然特意通过非正式渠道联系总统身边人士，试探此人是否'符合总统心意'。

I'll give you a very tangible example. I talked to an executive at a company that was thinking of hiring somebody that had worked in the Biden administration, not a particularly famous person in the Biden administration, but somebody who had worked in that Biden administration. As part of thinking about whether to hire that person or not, they decided to make phone calls to backchannel with people in and around the president to try to understand whether this person would be, quote, unquote, acceptable to the president. Wow.

连具体人事任命都要看他们脸色。

Running individual hiring decisions by them.

这正是他给部分商界带来的恐惧。这个小例子背后，想象下某公司要公开涨价——只要能拖延，他们就会尽量推迟涨价。

I think that is the fear that he has imposed on parts of the business community. And so you can look at that example. That's a small example. Think about a company that's gonna very publicly raise their prices. Well, if they can try to avoid raising their prices for as long as they can, they will.

有趣的是，我常与这些企业领袖交谈，其中不少是亿万富翁。按常理说，坐拥巨额财富的他们不该畏惧总统或任何人，但现实恰恰相反。

You know, it's interesting because I spent a lot of time talking to these leaders of companies, many of whom happen to be billionaires, and you'd think, okay. They have this extraordinary amount of money. They shouldn't be worried about the president or anybody else. I mean, I think that's sort of the conventional wisdom.

没错。这正是我提出这个问题的原因。

Yeah. That that's exactly why I asked the question.

但事实是，我认为几乎无可争议的是，这世界上只有一个人比他们拥有更大的权力。不过公平地说，CEO们向来都在努力讨好每一位总统。我刚接触过一位科技公司CEO，他实际上就指出了这一点。他是特朗普的支持者。他说，在拜登政府时期，我们在公司推行了各种DEI（多元化、公平与包容）和ESG（环境、社会与治理）相关项目，希望能换取总统的一些好感。

But the truth is that I think almost singularly, this is the one person in the world who has more power than they do. But in fairness, CEOs have always been trying to stay in the good graces of, frankly, every president. And I was just with a tech CEO who actually made this point. He's a Trump supporter. Who said, look, during the Biden administration, we were implementing all sorts of DEI and ESG related programs in our companies to hopefully buy some goodwill with the president.

我们投资了电动汽车。有时拜登政府在疫情期间要求某些社交媒体公司删除特定帖子，放大其他内容，而一些大型科技公司这么做，部分原因是为了讨好这个最终以各种方式监管他们的政府。我并不是说这些事情都是对等的。

We were investing in EVs. Sometimes the Biden administration during COVID was requesting certain social media companies to take down certain posts, to amplify other things, and that some of the big tech companies were doing that in part to stay in the good graces of the administration that was ultimately regulating them in all sorts of other ways. Now I'm not saying that those are all equivalent things.

当然。

Sure.

但我认为值得提出来讨论。

But I think it's just worth putting on the table.

我理解公司为适应关税政策所做的调整是为了避免与总统发生冲突。但就这件事而言，这些公司毕竟有股东，他们需要发布财报。承担这些关税成本看起来不像是一个可持续的长期解决方案。

I get that what companies have been doing to adapt to tariffs is a way of kind of avoiding a conflict with the president. But in this case, these companies I mean, they have shareholders. They have to put out earnings reports. You know? And eating the cost of these tariffs just doesn't seem like a sustainable long term solution.

确实不是。而且我越和这些高管交谈，尤其是过去几周，就越能感觉到他们普遍认为情况即将发生变化。

It isn't. And I think the more that I talk to some of these executives, especially in the last couple of weeks, there's a greater sense that things are about to change.

我们稍后继续。好的，安德鲁。你说这种策略必须改变。你听到CEO们打算怎么做？

We'll be right back. Okay, Andrew. You said this strategy is gonna have to change. What are you hearing about what CEOs are gonna do?

我刚从科罗拉多州的阿斯彭回来。阿斯彭研究所每年都会举办阿斯彭经济战略小组会议，许多美国前财政部长都会参加，比如汉克·保尔森、拉里·萨默斯、珍妮特·耶伦，还有众多CEO，如管理贝莱德的拉里·芬克和管理美国银行的布莱恩·莫伊尼汉。从这次会议中得出的一个明确结论是，当前局面不可持续，价格问题迟早会爆发。因此我认为价格将开始上涨，而且已经有非常公开的迹象表明了这一点。

You know, I just got back from Aspen, Colorado. The Aspen Institute has something called the Aspen Economic Strategy Group meeting every year with many of the former treasury secretaries in The United States, Hank Paulson, Larry Summers, and Janet Yellen, and so many CEOs, Larry Fink, who runs BlackRock, and Brian Moynihan, who runs Bank of America. And one of the things just coming out of that meeting that you realize is that this is unsustainable, that at some point, the dam does have to break when it comes to prices. And so I think you're going to start to see prices rise. And there have been very public indicators of that already.

亚马逊已表示他们将不得不提高价格，原因有二：一是他们的供应商向他们收取的费用增加了，二是他们平台上的所有卖家也将提高价格，因为他们同样无法承受成本压力。

Amazon's said that they're gonna have to raise prices, and they're gonna have to raise prices for two reasons. One is that their own suppliers are charging them more, and also all of the sellers in their marketplace are gonna be raising their prices because they too can't afford it.

这是个有趣的例子，因为亚马逊曾是被特朗普公开羞辱的公司，你知道的，它没有这样做，退缩了，而现在他们表示，看吧，我们不得不提高这些价格了。

This is an interesting example because Amazon was this company that was shamed by Trump, you know, didn't do this, backed away, and now they're saying, look. We're gonna have to raise these prices.

真刀真枪的时刻到了。说到这个，福特就是个很好的例子。我和福特CEO吉姆·法利聊过多次，他现在说公司今年将亏损20亿美元。哇哦。

The rubber meets the road. And while we're talking about the rubber meeting the road, another good example of this is Ford. And I've spent time talking to Jim Farley, who's the CEO of Ford. This is a company that he now says is gonna lose $2,000,000,000 this year. Woah.

所以我不断从CEO们那里听到的是，今年秋天他们将被迫涨价，尽管他们非常希望能维持原价。

And so what I keep hearing over and over again from CEOs is that come this fall, they are gonna be forced to raise their prices despite how much they like to keep them where they are if they could.

他们跟你说了什么招聘计划？因为我们刚收到这份相当疲软的就业报告。你和这些高管的对话反映出劳动力市场有任何疲软迹象吗？

And what are they telling you about their hiring plans? Because we just got this pretty weak jobs report. Are your conversations with these executives reflecting any softening in the labor market?

过去几周多位CEO告诉我，当他们有职位空缺时，很多情况下他们并不填补。部分原因可能反映了就业数据暗示的不确定性。关税的不确定性让他们无法预知未来，不知道关税生效后产品最终定价如何，业务前景与过去六个月相比会怎样。但我们得到的很多数据仍无定论。

You know, one of the things that a number of CEOs have told me just in the past couple of weeks is this idea that when they've had job openings, that in many cases they're not filling them. And one of the reasons they're not filling them, and maybe that's reflective of what those job numbers suggest, is this uncertainty. The uncertainty of the tariffs have created an environment where they don't know what the future portends. They don't know once these tariffs are in effect and what prices they're going to ultimately have to sell their products at, what the business looks like in the same way that it did over the last six months. But a lot of the data that we're getting still is inconclusive.

比如美国银行的消费报告，他们实际追踪每位客户的信用卡使用情况。他们会说消费在上升。上周我和优步CEO聊过，他会告诉你叫车人数比以往更多，没有放缓迹象。所以这是个混杂的局面，我认为目前还没有明确结论。

If you look at, for example, Bank of America and their spending reports, they actually track every customer and how they use credit cards. They would say spending is up. You talk to the CEO of Uber, who I spoke to last week. He would tell you there are more people that are ordering cars than before, that they're seeing no slowdown. And so there is this sort of mixed picture, and I don't think we have real clarity just yet.

好的。我们讨论了公司应对关税的各种方式，这些新潜在策略。一是涨价，另一个可能影响是招聘。如果他们按特朗普政府希望的那样，把制造或采购转移到美国呢？

Okay. So we've talked about various ways that the companies might adapt to tariffs, these new potential strategies. One, raising prices. Another potential effect would be their hiring. What if they just did what the Trump administration wants them to do and moved manufacturing or sourcing to The United States?

我是说，这也是应对关税的一种方式。

I mean, that is a way of adapting to the tariffs.

很多企业正在考虑。毫无疑问在某些情况下他们正在尝试。但重组供应链、新建制造设施需要很长时间。在这期间，你仍需要进口商品。苹果处理这事的方式就是个例子。

And many are looking at that. There is no question that they're trying, in some cases, to do that. But it takes a very long time to be able to move supply chains around, to be able to build a new manufacturing facility. And so, during that period of time, you still are gonna have to import goods. You know, an example of that is the way Apple is approaching all of this.

他们刚宣布将在美国追加1000亿美元制造业投资，重大声明。但蒂姆·库克在白宫被问及iPhone整机何时能在美国生产时，他说还需要很久。因为即便他想，光是协调所有环节的物理条件就需要数年时间。

We just saw them announce that they are going to be investing an additional $100,000,000,000 in manufacturing here in America. Huge announcement. But Tim Cook was asked in the White House when would the actual iPhone, the full phone, be produced in The United States? And he said not for a very long time. And that's because even if he wanted to, just the physical nature of getting everything coordinated would take years.

所以，基本上，即使关税达到了预期效果，在其发挥作用的过程中，你可能仍会看到经济受到影响。

So, basically, even if the tariffs have the desired outcome, you could still see an economic impact in the meantime while that is playing out.

经济引力法则表明，在某个时间点，你不得不将成本转嫁给消费者。问题是这将对整体经济产生多大的影响。

The laws of economic gravity would suggest that at some point, you have to pass the costs on to customers. The question is how big an impact that's gonna have on the overall economy.

鉴于你为我们描绘的这幅美国经济出现裂痕的画面，为什么股市表现如此强劲？我们现在正处于历史高点。你怎么解释这一点？

Given this picture that you've laid out for us with these cracks emerging in The US economy, why has the stock market been doing so well? We're in all time high territory right now. How do you explain that?

嗯，我们的经济中还有另一个我们尚未讨论的现象，那就是人工智能以及全国各地正在建设的数据中心，它们正以几年前还不存在的方式支撑着我们的整个经济。比如微软这样的公司，今年将投入1200亿美元建设数据中心。这些资金流入经济，用于建设数据中心。当它们建设数据中心时，会对半导体采购产生影响。所以突然间，它们开始从英伟达购买这些GPU。

Well, there's this other phenomenon in our economy that we haven't talked about, which is artificial intelligence and just all of the data centers which are being built around the country, are helping support our entire economy in ways that didn't exist only a couple of years ago. And so you have companies like Microsoft, which will spend $120,000,000,000 this year. That's into the economy to be building data centers. And when they're building data centers, it has an impact on buying semiconductors. So all of a sudden they're buying these GPUs from Nvidia.

它们正在土地上建设，因此有助于支撑房地产价格。所有这些数据中心都需要电工、建筑工作和电力，因此能源综合体也受到了影响。所以，有一股巨大的力量正在提振我们经济的许多部分。因此，即使某些领域的价格上涨，我们的经济可能比没有AI的情况下更能吸收这些影响。

They are building on land, so they're helping support real estate prices. All of these data centers need electricians and construction work and electricity, so the energy complex is getting impacted. So there is this enormous force that is lifting a lot of parts of our economy. So, even if prices go up in certain areas, it is possible that perhaps our economy can absorb more of it than we might if we didn't have this thing called AI happening around us.

你是说这些公司现在正往经济中注入大量现金，这也是经济看起来如此有韧性的部分原因。

You're saying these companies are just injecting a huge amount of cash into the economy right now, and and that's part of what's making it look so resilient.

这非常不寻常。我的意思是，有些人会称之为淘金热，另一些人会称之为糖兴奋。我认为我们还不知道它最终会是什么。很难相信这种规模的投资会永远持续下去。

It's extraordinary. I mean, some people would call it a gold rush. Other people would call it a sugar rush. And I don't think we know yet which it ultimately will be. It's hard to believe that these kinds of investments at this scale are going to be here forever.

五年后再来找我，如果建设一个数据中心需要几百人，而数据中心只需要五到十五名员工，那么这种情况不可能永远持续下去。但有些人认为，AI将以其他各种方式从根本上改变我们的经济。

Call me in five years from now, it's possible that if it took several 100 people to build the data center, the data center only needs five, ten, 15 employees. So invariably, you know, this can't go on at that level forever. But there are some people who believe that AI will fundamentally change our economy in all sorts of other ways.

所以，从宏观角度来看，我想放大视野，广泛思考我们当前所处的时刻。当我们说关税将长期存在，当CEO们、投资者们告诉你这一点时，安德鲁，这在经济历史的进程中意味着什么？

So big picture, I wanna zoom out and just think broadly about the moment that we're in. When we say that tariffs are here to stay, when the CEOs, when the investors tell you that, How significant is that, Andrew, in the course of economic history?

近一百年来，我们从未见过类似的情况。上一次出现这种重新排序是在30年代和40年代，部分原因是《斯姆特-霍利关税法》，这是美国对其他国家的关税措施。然后我们经历了一场战争，重塑了我们的许多世界。我认为这些关税将长期重塑美国与许多国家的关系。因为我交谈过的许多政策领袖都说，这些关税很可能会在特朗普总统离开白宫后长期存在。

We have not seen anything like this in nearly a hundred years. The last time that we had this kind of reordering was in the 30s and 40s, part of that was Smoot Hawley, which was an effort by The United States to tariff other countries. And then we had a war, which reshapes a lot of our universe. I think these tariffs are going to reshape the relationship that The United States has with so many countries and for a very long time. Because one of the things that many of the policy leaders that I talk to say is these tariffs are going to be here likely long after President Trump is in the White House.

原因在于，如果从预算角度看他们实际上每年能带来约30.41万亿美元的收入，国会很难表态说‘我们不再需要这笔钱了’。

And the reason for that is if, in fact, they're bringing in something like $304,100,000,000,000 dollars a year in revenue from a budget perspective, it's gonna be very hard for congress to say, well, we're not gonna have that money anymore.

没错。国会肯定想花掉那笔钱。

Right. Congress is gonna wanna spend that money.

国会必然要动用那笔资金。那些彻底重组了供应链的企业，在完成所有新投资后不可能立即掉头改变策略。此外，那些贸易伙伴国也已据此调整了国内激励机制。因此要扭转局面将极其困难。

Congress is gonna wanna spend that money. You're gonna have companies that have completely reoriented the way they have organized their own supply chains. They're not gonna turn around on a dime and change that after making all of these new investments. And then you're gonna have all of these trading partners, which have reorganized the incentives even inside their own countries as a function of this. And so it's gonna be very, very hard to undo.

特朗普身边人士，甚至他本人有时会宣称，我们正见证重塑全球经济的努力。听完你的分析后，我的疑问是：这种重构是否已成既定事实？

So people in Trump's orbit, maybe even the president himself at times, have cast what we're looking at is an effort to really reorder the global economy. I guess my question is, after hearing you, has that already happened?

这是个深刻的问题。变革可能已经发生而我们尚未察觉。事态每天都在变化，难以预判股市债市动向，也无法确定未来几年政治阶层的反应。但种种迹象表明，世界确实已经改变，某些方面或许是永久性的。

It's a great question. It may have already happened, and we didn't even realize it. You know, this story feels like it keeps changing every day, and it's hard to know what really is gonna come next, what the stock market's gonna do, what the bond market's gonna do, what the political class will do over the next several years. But in so many ways, it does feel already that the world has changed, and in some way, perhaps permanently.

安德鲁，非常感谢你的分享。

Andrew, thanks so much for your time.

谢谢邀请。

Thanks for having me.

稍后继续。以下是今日其他要闻。

We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today.

普京曾声称绝不与乌克兰领导人泽连斯基会谈，如今总统已促成转变

Vladimir Putin said that he would never sit down with Zelensky, the head of Ukraine, and the president has now got that to change

周日，副总统J·D·万斯表示美国正推动俄罗斯总统普京与乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基举行会谈，商讨结束战争事宜。

On Sunday, vice president J. D. Vance said that The US is working to arrange a meeting between Russian president Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelensky to discuss an end to the war.

总统今天私下对我说，听着，这事或许能成，或许不能，但值得一试。我们值得努力，而且我们会坚持下去

The president said this to me today, privately said, look. Maybe this works out, maybe it doesn't, but it's worth the effort. It's worth trying, and we're gonna keep

万斯在福克斯新闻的采访中发表了这些言论。他表示，在特朗普总统本周晚些时候与普京会晤之前，俄乌领导人会面并非明智之举。该会晤定于周五在阿拉斯加举行，这将是自2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，普京与美国总统的首次面对面峰会。此举被视为普京的胜利，数月来他一直被西方领导人孤立。

Vance made the comments during an interview on Fox News. He said he didn't think it would be a good idea for the Russian and Ukrainian leaders to meet before president Trump meets with Putin later this week. That meeting is supposed to take place on Friday in Alaska. It would be the first in person summit between Putin and an American president since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. And it's seen as a victory for Putin, who's been isolated from Western leaders for months.

在一项极不寻常的安排中，两家美国AI芯片制造商同意将在中国市场所得利润的一部分交给美国政府。知情人士向《纽约时报》透露，英伟达和超威半导体预计将把在华销售AI芯片收入的15%上缴美国。据《纽约时报》报道，英伟达CEO上周三曾在白宫与特朗普会面商讨此事并达成协议。两天后美国商务部开始发放AI芯片销售许可，这实质上使联邦政府成为这些公司在中国业务的合作伙伴。

And in a highly unusual arrangement, two American AI chipmakers have agreed to give the US government a cut of the money they make in China. People familiar with the deal told the Times that the companies, NVIDIA and Advanced Micro Devices, are expected to pay The US 15% of the money they take in from selling AI chips to China. The Times is reporting that NVIDIA CEO met with Trump at the White House to discuss the deal last Wednesday and agreed to the arrangement. The Commerce Department began granting licenses for AI chip sales two days later. That essentially made the federal government a partner in the company's business in China.

本期节目由里基·内维茨基、亚历克斯·斯特恩和凯特琳·奥基菲制作，MJ·戴维斯·林恩和马克·乔治在丽莎·周的协助下完成编辑。原创音乐由艾丽西亚·贝托普、丹·鲍威尔和玛丽昂·洛萨诺创作，音频工程由艾丽莎·莫克斯利负责。主题音乐来自Wonderly的吉姆·布伦德伯格和本·兰兹伯格。《每日新闻》到此结束。

Today's episode was produced by Ricky Nevetsky, Alex Stern, and Caitlin O'Keefe. It was edited by MJ Davis Lynn and Mark George with help from Lisa Chow. Contains original music by Alicia Beitoupe, Dan Powell, and Marion Lozano, and was engineered by Alyssa Moxley. Our theme music is by Jim Brundberg and Ben Landsberg of Wonderly. That's it for The Daily.

我是娜塔莉·凯特洛维夫，明天见。

I'm Natalie Ketrowev. See you tomorrow.