最重播时刻：克里斯·威廉姆森解析为何寻找真爱比以往更难

我不是技术天才，但我知道如果想让我的业务大获成功，现在就需要一个网站。幸运的是，Bluehost让这一切变得简单。我用AI按照自己的想法定制、优化并变现了一切。几分钟内，我的网站就上线了。我简直不敢相信。

I'm no tech genius, but I knew if I wanted my business to crush it, I needed a website now. Thankfully, Bluehost made it easy. I customized, optimized, and monetized everything exactly how I wanted with AI. In minutes, my site was up. I couldn't believe it.

搜索引擎工具甚至帮助我获得了更多网站访问者。无论你的激情项目是什么，都可以用Bluehost来搭建。凭借他们30天退款保证，你有什么可失去的呢？前往bluehost.com，也就是blueh0st.com，立即开始吧。

The search engine tools even helped me get more site visitors. Whatever your passion project is, you can set it up with Bluehost. With their thirty day money back guarantee, what do you got to lose? Head to bluehost.com. That's blueh0st.com to start now.

事实上，最大的杠杆之一，也是你一生健康结果的最大单一预测因素，就是你拥有的亲密关系的数量。这比戒烟更重要。比去健身房更重要。比戒酒更重要。50%的男性表示他们不寻求恋爱关系。

One of the biggest levers in fact, the single biggest predictor of your health outcomes in life are the number of close connections that you have. It it's more than quitting smoking. It's more than going to the gym. It's more than stopping drinking. 50% of men say that they are not looking for a relationship.

当他们说不寻求恋爱关系时，是指我不寻找女性，还是我不寻求承诺？

When they say aren't looking for a relationship, do they mean I'm not looking for a woman or I'm not looking for commitment?

我没有积极追求任何与女性互动的机会。

I'm not actively pursuing any kind of interaction with women.

哦，我们哪里出了问题，又该如何纠正？

Oh, where did we go wrong, and how do we go right?

好的。所以历史上首次有50.1%的女性成为了母亲。30岁时没有孩子的女性比有孩子的女性更多。对吧？因为在几乎整个人类历史中，30岁以下有孩子的女性比30岁以上的多，而现在情况反过来了。

Okay. So 50.1% of women for the first time in history are mothers. There are more childless women at 30 than there are women with children. Right? So for almost all of human history, more women had kids under the age of 30 than over, and now it's switched.

摩根士丹利有一项研究显示，到2040年，45%的25至45岁女性将保持单身且无子女。如果在线约会本应为建立关系提供完美便利，我们怎么会最终得到所有这些结果？

There's a study from Morgan Stanley that says by 2040, forty five percent of twenty five to forty five year old women will be single and childless. If online dating was creating this perfect facilitation for relationships to start, how are we ending up with all of these outcomes?

问题是什么？这些结果有什么问题吗？

What's the question? What's wrong with the outcomes?

你什么意思？为什么人们应该关心单身状态？

What do you mean? Why should people care about being single?

你刚才说的所有统计数据——嗯。我可以看着它们说它们某种程度上是客观中立的。就像，对社会或世界没有不利影响。人们不生孩子没问题。人们没有性生活也没问题。

All the stats you just said Mhmm. I can look at them and say they're just sort of objectively neutral. Like, there's no adverse consequence to society or the world. It's fine that people aren't having kids. It's fine that people aren't aren't having sex.

我在这里扮演魔鬼代言人，但是，像，在你看来，你描述的所有这些结果有什么负面后果呢？

I'm playing devil's advocate here, but, like, what what is the what is the negative consequence of all of those outcomes that you've described in your view?

对有些人来说，没有伴侣的生活是正确的选择。这绝对是我准备接受的。但这不是大多数人的情况。这是最重要的影响因素之一。事实上，预测你一生健康结果的最强指标就是你拥有的亲密连接数量。

There are people for whom a life without a partner is the right choice. That's absolutely something that I'm prepared to accept. But it's not most people. It's one of the biggest levers. In fact, the single biggest predictor of your health outcomes in life are the number of close connections that you have.

是朋友的数量。这比戒烟更重要。比去健身房更重要。比戒酒更重要。是你拥有的亲密朋友的数量。

It's the number of friends. It's more than quitting smoking. It's more than going to the gym. It's more than stopping drinking. It's the number of close friends that you've got.

而恋爱关系就像一位重要的密友。罗宾·邓巴指出，要开始一段恋爱关系，你必须牺牲两段友谊，因为一个人大约只能维持五段非常亲密的朋友关系。如果你想要谈恋爱，就需要放弃其中两个朋友，因为这需要最低限度的时间投入。所以处于恋爱关系中的人健康状况更好，他们痴呆症的发病时间也更晚。

And a relationship is a big close friend. Robin Dunbar says that in order to get into a relationship, you have to sacrifice two friendships because you can have around about five very close friends. If want you to get into a relationship, you need to get rid of two of them because there is a minimum time investment. So people that are in relationships have better health outcomes. They have onset of dementia later.

他们在晚年出现健康问题的时间更晚。他们更少感到孤独。这似乎没什么争议。然而，无论是男性还是女性，双方都在从恋爱关系中退缩，并寻找理由来为此辩护。比如'霸道女总裁'文化以及某种'向前一步'的女性心态，或者男性选择独自前行、incel文化和男性的黑色药丸理论，这些都是两性各自试图应对婚恋市场带来的挑战的方式。

They have alkalemic, problems later on in life. They are less lonely. That seems pretty uncontroversial. And yet, both sides of the aisle, both men and women are retreating from relationships and finding ways that they can justify this. Know, boss bitch culture and sort of the lean in women's mentality or men going their own way and incel culture and the black pill for guys are both ways that each sex is trying to deal with the challenges that are coming out of the mating market.

两性都在说：我不想再参与这个游戏了。我发现在这个世界里如此痛苦和艰难，以至于我要完全抛弃这一切，然后事后找一大堆解释来证明自己本来就不需要恋爱关系。对某些人来说，这确实如此。但对大多数人来说，并非如此。

Both sexes are saying, I don't wanna be a part of this anymore. I'm finding it so painful and difficult to be in this world that I'm just gonna cast off any of it altogether and then retroactively come up with a lot of explanations that can justify why they didn't need to be in a relationship in any case. And for some people, that's true. But for most people, that's not.

显然，正如你之前用自己的话所说，约会应用并不是唯一的因果因素。所以我的问题是：我们哪里出了问题，又该如何纠正？

Dating apps are clearly not, you know, as you said in your own words and previously, aren't the only causal factor. So my question to you is, where did we go wrong, and how do we go right?

好的。我认为婚恋市场的挑战来自多个方面。其中与听众最相关的一个主要因素是女性在教育和就业方面的成就提升。大约五十年前《教育法修正案第九条》实施时，大学里的男女比例出现了13个百分点的转变，偏向女性。当时男性数量明显多于女性。

Okay. So I think challenges in the mating market are coming from many directions. One of the main ones that will be pertinent to the people that are listening is the increase in female achievement in education and employment. Now, about fifty years ago when Title Nine came in, there was a 13 percentage point swing in favor of men to women in universities. There were significantly more men than women.

什么是《教育法修正案第九条》？

What's Title IX?

这是一项平权行动政策，旨在帮助更多女性接受高等教育。五十年后的2023年，大学里的男女比例出现了15个百分点的反向转变。到2030年左右，美国四年制大学学位中女性数量将是男性的两倍。21至29岁女性平均收入比同龄男性多1,111英镑。女性表示重视伴侣经济前景的可能性大约是男性的两倍。

It was, an affirmative action, policy that helped to get more, women into higher education. Fifty years later, 2023, it's a 15 percentage point swing between men and women in university in the other direction. There are two women for every one man at a four year US college degree roundabout by 2030. Women on average between the ages of twenty one and twenty nine earn £1,111 more than their male counterparts. Women are roughly twice as likely as men to say that they will value financial prospects in a partner.

大约78%的女性认为伴侣拥有稳定工作很重要，而只有约45%的男性持相同观点。男性要想在10分制评分中提升2分，其收入需要增长约10倍。而女性要实现同样的2分提升，其收入需要增长10,000倍。我的观点是：女性对伴侣社会经济地位的重视程度远高于男性。现在你可以开始理解，当女性高等教育入学率很高，在就业方面取得更大成功（至少在21至29岁这个大多数人寻找潜在伴侣的年龄段），而伴侣的社会经济地位又是女性吸引力的重要决定因素时，这种不平衡会如何引发问题。

Around about 78% of women say that a stable job is something that is important for a partner to have, whereas around about only sort of 45% of men say the same thing. For a man to increase his, rating on a 10 scale by two points, he requires around about a tenfold, increase in his salary. For a woman to achieve the same two point improvement on a 10 scale, her salary would need to increase by 10,000 times. My point being that women are concerned about a partner's socioeconomic status significantly more than men are. Now, you can start to see that if you have a world in which women are attending university at high rates, they are achieving, more success in employment, at least in that sort of 21 to 29 range, which is when most people are perhaps looking for potential partners, and yet the socioeconomic status of a partner to a woman is a big determinant of their level of attraction, you can start to see how this imbalance could cause a problem.

同样地，在教育方面。Tinder上拥有硕士学位的男性比本科学历男性获得右滑喜欢的概率高出90%。所以对于那些考虑攻读硕士学位的男性来说，即使你认为它毫无用处，至少接受这个事实：你余生将获得90%更多的右滑喜欢，或者干脆谎称自己有硕士学位。我不知道。所有这些现象共同描述了所谓的'上迁婚'（hypergamy），即女性倾向于与同等或更高社会阶层的男性交往。

Similarly, when we talk about education. A man with a master's degree on Tinder gets 90% more rights swipes than a man with a bachelor's degree. So for all of the guys that are considering going and getting a master's degree, even if you think it's gonna be useless, at least accept the fact that you get 90% more rights swipes for the rest of your life or just lie about your masters. I don't know. All of this rolled together describes something called hypergamy, which is the female tendency to date up and across.

平均而言，女性希望与教育程度和职业地位相当或更高的男性约会。在这个女性终于能够正当获得教育、就业、地位方面的平等，拥有独立性而不必经济依赖伴侣的世界里，这一切对她们都很棒。但这确实给她们的约会带来了一些挑战。这就是我所说的'高个女孩问题'。大家都知道有一个不穿高跟鞋就六英尺（约183cm）高的女性朋友是什么体验。

On average, women want to date a man who is as educated or as employed as they are. Now in a world in which, quite rightly, women have finally been able to achieve parity in education and employment and status and have independence and not be financially reliant on their partner, all the rest of it, that's great for them. But it it does cause some challenges for their dating. And this is what I've called the tall girl problem. So everybody knows what it's like to have a girl friend who is six foot without heels.

如果你还想穿高跟鞋，你就得盯着职业运动员了——因为平均而言，女性希望约会至少与自己一样高或稍高的男性。随着女性通过自身能力在教育就业阶层中上升，她们进一步缩小了潜在合格男性的池子——那些教育程度相当或更高、职业地位相当或更好的男性。这是一个挑战，这就是直接的不平衡，对吧？

You go, if you wanna wear heels, you're looking at professional athletes because on average, women want to date a man who is at least as tall or a little bit taller than they are. So as women rise up through their own competence hierarchy in education and employment, they further shorten down the potential pool of eligible men that are as educated or more educated and as employed or more employed than they are. This is a challenge. This is just a straight up imbalance. Right?

这导致处于分布底层的庞大男性群体对女性来说基本不可见。同时导致大量女性——一个不断增长的群体——去竞争顶端日益缩小的超级精英男性群体。这些超高价值的男性拥有丰富选择，因此他们回避承诺。当他们有这么多选择时，为什么要决定与一个女孩共度余生？这可能导致他们利用并抛弃许多女性，进而使大多数女性对男性整体产生怨恨。而那些被遗忘在底层的男性则会说：等等。

What this causes is a very large group of men toward the bottom of this distribution to be essentially invisible to women. It causes a very large number of women, an increasing cohort to compete for an increasingly small group of turbocharged super performers at the top. These guys, the super high value guys, have a wealth of options, so they are commitment averse. Why would they decide to sit down with one girl for the rest of time when they have this wealth of options, which can cause them to, use and discard many of these women, which then causes most of these women to resent men overall? And then the guys that were forgotten at the bottom that say, well, hang on a second.

我没有利用和抛弃你。我甚至从未被你看见过。不，不。所有男人都是...不管什么标签。

I didn't use and discard you. I haven't even been seen by you. No. No. All men are, whatever it might be.

对吧？他们认为男性都是利用者和虐待者，我们不需要他们，好男人都去哪儿了，等等等等。有一大群觉得自己是好男人的男性感到被忽视。也有大量终于获得教育、就业和独立性的女性在追逐一个更小的男性群体，而这些男性却是回避承诺的。

Right? That they are, users and abusers that we don't need them to where all of the good men at, etcetera, etcetera. It's a big group of men that feel like they are good men that are invisible. There's a big portion of women who have finally managed to achieve educational and employment and independence that are chasing after a smaller group of guys. These guys are commitment to verse.

我认为这对他们来说也未必是好事。就像那个拿着冰淇淋的孩子，对吧？当桌上有太多选择时，男人们要管住自己的裤子也会很困难。这是主要驱动因素之一。

I don't think it's necessarily good for them either. It's the child with the ice cream. Right? Like, guys being able to keep it in their pants when there's a lot of options on the table is going to be difficult for them too. This is one of the main drivers.

我认为这个高学历女性问题正在极大地改变约会动态。

This tall girl problem is a massive change, I think, in the dating dynamics.

这显然引出一个问题，Chris，如果你所说的一切在客观上都是正确的、准确的且有数据支持，那么如果我让你成为世界总理或总统，你的首要任务就是解决这个挑战——嗯。你会怎么做？

It obviously begs a question, Chris, which is if everything you've said is objectively correct and spot on and supported by the data, then how does if I make Chris Williamson the prime minister or president of the world and I say your first job is to fix this challenge Mhmm. What do you do?

首先不能做的是撤回女性的教育和就业机会。这就是讨论中的一个问题所在，对吧？我刚才说的这些都有皮尤研究中心的数据和摩根士丹利的研究结果支持。这些都是无可辩驳的事实。

The first thing that you don't do is roll back women's education and employment. And this is one of the problems with this discussion. Right? The things that I've just said there are born out in Pew Research data, Morgan Stanley results. Like, these are incontrovertible facts.

对吧？这些事实就摆在那里。任何年收入超过5万英镑、拥有硕士及以上学历、接近三十岁末或三十多岁的女性都知道这个问题。你知道自己很难找到一个你觉得配得上你的男人，对吧？

Right? They are there. And any girl that is listening who earns more than £50,000 a year and has got a master's or above level education and is toward their late thirties or in the, toward their late twenties or in their thirties knows this problem. You know the fact that you are struggling to find a man that you feel is eligible for you. Right?

这个问题需要被公开讨论。相关讨论中出现的问题是它将男女置于对立和竞争的关系中，对吧？就像敌人一样。这意味着需要给予双方应有的同情——如果你是一个通过教育奋斗获得学位的女性，你知道你母亲那一代无法实现这些，你可能是家里第一个上大学、获得学士、硕士或博士学位的人，然后在职业生涯中辛苦打拼，现在年收入15万美元，31岁的你想安定下来，这对你来说会很美好，但男人都去哪儿了？等等——你会意识到，你不仅要与越来越多同样拥有高学历和高地位职业的女性竞争，还要与一个21岁仍和父母住在一起的咖啡师竞争那一小部分男人。

That needs to be out there. The problem that happens around this discourse is that it posits men and women as adversaries and competitors of each other. Right? As enemies. This means that worthwhile compassion, which is needed to both women and men if you're a woman who has gone through your education, you've dedicated yourself to achieving a degree, you know, your mother's generation wasn't able to achieve this and you're the first person that's maybe gone to uni or got a bachelor's or got a master's or got a PhD and then you spend some time in a career grinding away and you now earn $150 a year and you think right I'm 31 I'd love to settle down this would be amazing for me where are all of the men Hang on a second And what you realise is that not only now are you competing with all of the other increasing cohort of women that are high achievers with status employment and education but you're also competing with a 21 year old barista who still lives at home with her parents for this small cohort of guys.

这需要同情女性。女性的处境并不好。与此同时，这一大群没有性生活的男性——30%的男性在过去一年中没有性生活，50%的男性表示他们不想谈恋爱。你是一个男人，你已经度过了二十几岁。

That requires sympathy for women. That is not a good position for women to be in. At the same time, this huge cohort of sexless men, 30% of men haven't had sex in the last year, 50% of men say that they are not looking for a relationship. You are a man. You have been through your twenties.

你知道18到30岁男性性欲的力量有多强。你能想象自己会处于这样一种状态，说'我不在乎追求女性'吗？对男性来说，这是一个难以置信的极端声明，而皮尤研究数据中他们自我认同的就是这种状态。这不是在非自愿独身者论坛上，这是皮尤研究。

You know the power of the male sex drive between the ages of 18 and 30. Can you imagine getting yourself into a situation where you say, I'm not bothered about pursuing women? That is an unbelievably extreme statement for men to make, and they're self identifying as this in Pew Research data. This isn't on incel forums. This is Pew Research.

50%的男性不寻求恋爱关系。

50% of men aren't looking for a relationship.

当他们说不寻求恋爱关系时，是指'我不找女人'还是'我不想要承诺'？

When they say aren't looking for a relationship, do they mean I'm not looking for a woman or I'm not looking for commitment?

我没有主动寻求与女性的任何形式的互动。

I'm not actively pursuing any kind of interaction with women.

哦，天哪。

Oh shit.

包括随意的关系。什么？50%。

Casual included. What? 50%.