莫尼什·帕布拉伊（亿万富翁投资人）：正在迅速消失的100美元投资秘诀！通往财务自由的最快途径！

为什么他们称你为丹杜投资者？

Why do they call you the Dandoo investor?

这是一种无需承担风险就能做生意和赚钱的方式。比如，盖茨先生、沃尔顿先生、布兰森先生，这些人都遵循着这些简单的思维模式。如果他们赢了，就会大获全胜；如果输了，也毫无损失。

It's a way of doing business and making money without taking risk. Like, for example, mister Gates, mister Walton, mister Branson, all of these people follow these simple mental models. So if they won, they would win big. And if they lost, they'd lose nothing.

所以我想了解一切。

So I wanna know everything.

好的，让我们从这个开始。

Okay. Let's start with this.

马尼什·帕布赖是白手起家的百万富翁，他创立了全球最受尊敬的投资公司之一，管理着超过十亿美元的资产。现在，他正为我们提供简单的工具和框架，以创造改变人生的财富。

Manish Pabrai is the self made millionaire who built one of the most respected investment firms in the world, managing over a billion dollars. And now he's giving us the simple tools and frameworks to create life changing wealth.

如果人们明白，以风险近乎为零的方式开展业务，就会有更多人愿意尝试。这正是这种思维模式的作用。例如，克隆。我们被教导创业需要创新，但实际上，如果你擅长克隆，就已经领先于90%的人。

If humans understood that if I embark on a business in a format where the risk is close to zero, more people would do it. And that's what this mental model do. For example, cloning. We are taught if you wanna start a business, you need to come up with something new. But, actually, if you are a great cloner, you will be 90% ahead of the rest of humanity.

事实上，微软所有成功的举措都源于借鉴外部创意。还有时间管理。创业时不要辞职，因为还有别人在支付你的房租。但你需要挤出时间经营事业。我会展示完美的时间分配方法，不仅如此。

And in fact, everything that Microsoft has done well has come from copying someone on the outside. And then there's time. When you're starting a business, don't quit the day job because some other yo yo is paying your rent. But it does mean that you need to find time to work on your business. But I will show you the perfect way to allocate your time, and that's not all.

有些模型比如低垂的果实、利益共享、给予者与索取者，以及能力圈。我会一一解释这些概念。

There's models like low hanging fruit, skin in the game, givers versus takers, and the circle of competence. And I'll I'll explain all of them.

那投资方面呢？因为你以卓越的投资能力闻名遐迩。

What about investing? Because you're very well known for being an excellent investor.

投资有三项关键要素，还有个72法则。真希望中学能多教这个——它告诉我们资金翻倍所需的时间。这非常令人振奋。

There are three things that matter with investing, and there's also something known as the rule of 72. But I wish they would teach it more in high school, and it tells us how long it takes money to double. Now this is exciting.

请给我三十秒时间。我想说两件事：首先衷心感谢你们每周收听这个节目，这对我们所有人意义重大。这个梦想我们过去从未敢想，更没料到能走到今天。其次，我们感觉这才刚刚开始。

Just give me thirty seconds of your time. Two things I wanted to say. The first thing is a huge thank you for listening and tuning into the show week after week. It means the world to all of us, and this really is a dream that we absolutely never had and couldn't have imagined getting to this place. But secondly, it's a dream where we feel like we're only just getting started.

如果喜欢我们的节目，请加入24%的定期听众行列，在这个应用上关注我们。我承诺：将竭尽所能让节目现在和未来都保持高质量。我们会邀请你想听的嘉宾，继续呈现你喜爱的节目内容。谢谢。

And if you enjoy what we do here, please join the 24% of people that listen to this podcast regularly and follow us on this app. Here's a promise I'm gonna make to you. I'm gonna do everything in my power to make this show as good as I can now and into the future. We're gonna deliver the guests that you want me to speak to, and we're gonna continue to keep doing all of the things you love about this show. Thank you.

莫尼什·帕伯莱，鉴于你近期职业生涯中从事的工作和公众教育工作，如果要总结的话，你想传递的核心信息是什么？具体想传达给哪些人群？

Mohanish Pabrai, with the work that you do and the sort of public educating that you've done more recently in your career, what is the message you're trying to convey, if you had to summarize that message? And exactly who are you trying to convey it to?

这取决于具体信息。过去几十年我总结出几种思维模型。当清晰理解这些模型，特别是能叠加运用时，就会产生一加一等于十一的效果。这些模型并非同类型或同方向的。

It really depends on what message. There are a few different mental models that I've figured out over the last few decades. When you have kind of clarity on these mental models, and especially when you can start overlaying them, that's when you get one plus one becomes 11. And so these mental models are not all in the same direction or in the same genre.

所以先暂停一下。‘心智模型’这个词，对，基本上是指一种思考框架。是的。其中一个思考框架就是克隆这个概念。对。

So just to pause there for a second. So the the the word mental models Yeah. Means it's basically a framework for thinking. Yes. So one framework for thinking is this idea of cloning Yes.

作为其中一个例子。

As one such example.

没错。我们以克隆的心智模型为例。克隆。克隆，对吧？我们被教导的是，如果你想创业，你需要想出一些新的、前所未有的事物。

Yes. Let's take the mental model of cloning. Cloning. Cloning, right? So what we are taught is that if you want to start a business, you need to come up with something new, something that hasn't been done before.

但现实是，世界会非常轻易地接受三个或五个相同的事物。通常，观察已经存在的事物并思考‘是否可以再有一个这样的存在’是一种优势。或者，我能否对现有事物稍作调整？人类心理中或许有一种根植于历史和祖先演化的特质，让我们轻视克隆。但如果你仔细看，比如，我认为人类历史上两位最伟大的克隆者是比尔·盖茨和山姆·沃尔顿。

But the reality is that the world will very easily accept three of the same thing or five of the same thing. And usually, it is an advantage to look at something that already exists and say, can another one of those exist, for example? Or can I take what's there and tweak it a little bit? So there's something peculiar in the human psyche, maybe going back into our history and our ancestral evolution, where humans look down upon cloning. But if you look at it, so for example, two of the greatest cloners, I think, in human history were Bill Gates and Sam Walton.

如今，我们认为比尔·盖茨是创新者，山姆·沃尔顿创造了沃尔玛，那也是新事物。但实际上，他们都是‘我也是’模式。如果没有出色的克隆能力，微软就不会存在。比如微软Word源自WordPerfect。

Now, we think of Bill Gates as an innovator. And we think Sam Walton created Walmart, which was also new. But actually, they're both Me Too models. And Microsoft would not have existed without being a great cloner. So when we look at Microsoft Word, it came from WordPerfect.

那是一家公司

Which was a company

一个被他击败的竞争对手。Excel源自Lotus，Bing源自谷歌。你知道Bing，但它不是谷歌。微软所有成功的产品都是从外部复制而来的。

Which a competitor that he took out. We look at Excel, it came from Lotus. We look at Bing, came from Google. And you know what Bing is, but it's not Google. Everything that Microsoft has done well at has come from copying someone on the outside.

当我们审视山姆·沃尔顿时——也就是沃尔顿家族的创始人，如果把整个家族财富汇总，他们是全球最富有的家族。其财富甚至超过了埃隆·马斯克等所有人。而山姆·沃尔顿本人曾坦言，他没有任何原创想法。实际上，沃尔玛最初就是模仿西尔斯和凯马特起家的。

And when we look at Sam Walton, who was the Walton family, if you pull them all together, it's the richest family in the world. It's richer than Elon and everyone. And Sam Walton, by his own admission, would tell you that he has no original ideas. So originally, Walmart cloned Sears and Kmart.

为国际听众解释一下，这是两家大型连锁超市。

For my international listeners, these are two big supermarket chains.

没错。但这两家都已消亡。事实上，沃尔玛彻底击败了它们。山姆·沃尔顿堪称史上最狂热的商业模式模仿者。比如全家度假途中经过零售店时，他会让家人留在车里。

Yeah. And they're both gone. They've they've and in fact, Walmart buried them. And Sam Walton was one of the most intense cloners ever. So if he was driving on vacation with his family and he's passing some retail store, he would tell his family to stay in the car.

自己进店考察。他曾说，古今未来没有人比他考察过更多零售店。有次他带着经理巡店——零售业是最透明的行业，进竞争对手店铺十分钟就能摸清整个商业模式。

And he would go in the store just to check it out. And he said that there is there is no human who has lived in history or will live in the future who has visited more retail stores than he has. One time, there was a manager of his and he would go in with his managers to these stores. Retail is one of the most transparent businesses. You can go into your competitor store and you'll figure out the entire business model in ten minutes.

根本无需交谈。这很美妙。那次他们进店后，经理抱怨说运营太糟，整个店铺乱七八糟。

You don't need to talk to them. Okay? It's beautiful. So he went into this retail store and the manager says to him, oh, what a terrible operation. The whole store was topsy-turvy.

确实很糟糕。但山姆反问：你注意到蜡烛陈列区了吗？那个区域简直惊艳。山姆认为任何人都值得学习，无论对方是糟糕的经营者、优秀的经营者，或是介于两者之间。

It was really bad. And Sam says to him, yeah, but did you see the candle display? The candle display was fantastic. So Sam felt that he could learn from anyone. It didn't matter if you were a useless operator or a great operator or whatever, anyone in the middle.

沃尔玛就是各地创意的集大成者。再看星巴克这类公司，我们觉得它很创新。但实际上霍华德·舒尔茨只是把意大利的模式搬来美国，他认为这个理念在美国也能成功。对吧？

Walmart is just an amalgamation of ideas from other places. If we look at a company like Starbucks, we think of Starbucks as innovative. But actually what Howard Schultz did is he saw a concept in Italy. And his idea was that I think this is work in The US. Right?

于是他克隆了意大利的这个创意，将咖啡馆体验带到了美国。如果你擅长克隆，你就已经超越了90%甚至95%的人类。现在来看另一个思维模型：人们普遍认为创业充满风险，但实际上创业者并不冒险。

And so he cloned he cloned that idea from Italy and brought that coffee shop experience to The US. If you are a great cloner, you will be 90 ahead or 95% of the rest of humanity. Now, another mental model. Humans have this perspective that starting a business is risky. In reality, entrepreneurs do not take risk.

他们竭尽全力降低风险。很多时候，当他们开始创业时，风险几乎为零。真正高风险的是朝九晚五的工作，因为我们只有一次人生，对吧？而它会悄然流逝。

They do everything in their power to minimize risk. And in many cases, when they embark on a business, the risk approach is zero. What is extremely risky is a nine to five job because we have one life. Right? And it goes away.

你可能永远无法实现心中的理想，可能无法让世人听到你的音乐。对吧？所以释放内心的音乐至关重要。那种'创业者就是在冒险'的固有观念，对大多数人造成了严重的误导。

And you may not get to do what's in your heart. You may not get your music out. Right? And so getting our music out is really important. So so this notion which is drilled into us that if you're an entrepreneur, you're taking risk, really kind of does a big disservice to most humans.

如果人们能明白：创业可以采取零风险或接近零风险的模式，还可以复制现有商业模式。对吧？现在你已经结合了两个思维模型，我们可以继续往里面添加更多内容。

And if if humans understood that if I embark on a business, I can do it in a format where the risk is zero or close to zero. And I can clone an existing business. Right? Now you've combined two mental models. And we can start adding more to them.

但两个模型叠加产生了11种可能，1加1已经变成了11，这是非线性的增长。为什么我说创业者不冒险？以我自己为例——我能举出上百个类似案例——

But two has become 11. One plus one has already become 11. It's nonlinear. And why is it that why is why am I saying that entrepreneurs do not take risk? So if I take my own case as an example, and I can give you a 100 cases like that.

就拿我来说，当时我在公司朝九晚五上班时萌生创业想法。雇主每周要求工作40小时，对吧？而一周有168小时，我觉得至少还能挤出三四十小时来经营自己的初创企业。

But if I take my own case as an example, I was working nine to five at a company and I had a business idea. My employer expected me to work forty hours a week. Right? There's one hundred and sixty eight hours in the week. So I felt like there must be at least another thirty, forty hours that I could work on my startup.

能否结合具体情境说明这一点？

Could you show me this in context of Right.

举个例子，如果我们观察整个一周，就像这些排列精美的乐高积木。如果我从中取出一块，每一块代表两小时。也就是说，每天八小时——我们每天要睡八小时，对吧？

So if we look at our whole week, for example, these beautifully arranged Legos. If I take one of these blocks of Legos, so each one of those blocks in there is two hours. So eight hours a day. We are sleeping eight hours a day. Right?

而且每周七天都是如此。所以基本上，我们每周七天、每天八小时都在睡觉。蓝色积木代表我们每周四十小时的工作时间——每天八小时，每周五天。

And and we're doing that seven days a week. Right? So basically, we've got seven days a week, eight hours a day we are sleeping. The blue Legos are showing our forty hours a week. Eight hours a day, five days a week, we're working.

明白吗？然后是其他事务，比如准备晚餐、洗澡、刮胡子、整理仪容等等。工作日每天约四小时（包括通勤时间），周末每天约八小时。剩下的才是自由时间，比如刷社交媒体、看网飞、和朋友聚会、外出吃饭。这部分时间其实相当充裕。

Right? Then we get to other, you know, preparing dinner and showering, shaving, getting ready, whatever else. So that's about four hours a day on the weekdays, which is including commute time, and about eight hours a day on the weekend. Then we get to free time, you know, social media and watching Netflix and hanging out with friends, going for dinner. And we've got quite a bit.

工作日每天约有四小时自由时间，周末每天八小时。这就是大多数人典型的一周安排。嗯哼。但当你创业时，关键是要保持现金流不断。

We've got about four hours a day of doing that and about eight hours a day on the weekends. So this is kind of typical what a typical week for most people would look like. Right? Mhmm. Now when you're starting a business, the important thing is don't shut off the cash flow.

总得有人替你付房租，有人替你买 groceries（ groceries 保留英文更符合中文口语习惯）。所以我们不想打乱现状，但要对蓝色积木做一项调整。

Some other yo yo is paying your rent, and some other yo yo is paying your groceries. So we don't wanna rock the boat. But we're going to make one change to blue.

也就是调整我的工作时长。目前朝九晚...

Which is the amount of hours I'm working for Now, my nine to

在创业之前，我曾是获得最高评价的员工。你知道，我过去全身心投入为雇主做好工作。但决定创业那天起，我就告诉自己：只要保持在不会被开除的水平线之上就行。

before I started my startup, I used to get top reviews as an employee. You know, I was very focused on doing a great job for my employer. All in. Right? The day I decided I'm gonna do my startup, I decided I need to be just above firing level.

我的表现只需刚好达标不被开除就行，绝不多费力气。因为我要把所有精力都投入到我的创业项目上。所以唯一调整的就是保留基础工作，但不再像以前那样额外加班。明白吗？

My performance needs to be just good enough so they don't can me, but nothing beyond that. Because I need all my energy to go into my startup. So that's the only tweak I'm making is the blue stays, but we are not doing extra blues like we were doing before. Right?

蓝色——考虑到听众可能看不到画面——代表工作内容。

And blue, for anybody that doesn't can't see because you're listening on audio, is work.

没错。蓝色就是工作。听着，当我们开始创业时，绝不能以赚钱为目的。

Exactly. Yeah. Blue is work. Exactly. Now when we embark on a startup, we should never do a startup to make money.

这是创业最糟糕的理由。商业的本质不是赚钱，而是为人类提供卓越的产品或服务。做到这点，金钱自然随之而来。

It's the worst reason to start a company. The purpose of business is not to make money. The purpose of business is to deliver an incredible product or service to humanity. If you do that, the money is a side effect. It'll happen.

我们无需刻意追求。关键是要思考：我们构想的产品或服务能否真正让这个世界变得更好？

We don't need to focus on it. So what we are looking for is do we have a product or a service that we are thinking about that we could bring into this world that is going to improve the world in some way?

怎么判断这个点子好不好？

How do I know if it's a good idea?

你现在想到的任何点子都不会成功。懂吗？因为这些只是你闭门造车的空想。象牙塔里从来诞生不了伟大的创意。

Whatever idea you have come up with is not going to work. Okay? Because you came up with it in an ivory tower between your years. Okay? And that's not really a great place to find great ideas.

接下来我们要做的是我称之为快速原型设计的过程，即把这个想法展示给人们看。当你向人们展示时，就会获得反馈。或许我用更实际的方式来说明。当初我创办第一家企业时，那是一家IT服务公司。

What's gonna happen is we are going to be doing what I call rapid prototyping, which is we take this idea and show humans what it is. And when you show it to humans, you will get feedback. So I'll I'll I'll maybe I'll just give it in more practical terms. When I was starting my first business, it was going to be an IT services business. Okay.

信息技术服务。我计划向那些年收入或现金流达十亿美元以上的大型企业提供这些服务。当时我在芝加哥一家大型银行与一位资深IT主管开会。我正带着他们浏览我的PPT演示文稿，翻到第十页幻灯片时，我照本宣科地讲解完，然后切换到第十一页。

Information technology services. And I was gonna be providing these services to very large businesses, companies that are billion dollars or more in earnings or cash flows. I was in a meeting with a senior IT guy at a very large bank in Chicago. And I was going through my PowerPoint deck with them. I came to the tenth slide, said my spiel, went to slide 11.

这时在座的老板说：'翻回第十页。'于是我退回第十页，再次复述了那页的讲解内容，然后准备继续。他说：'回到第十页，别再翻页。我对其他内容毫无兴趣。明白吗？'

So the boss who was sitting in the meeting said, go back to slide 10. So I went back to slide 10, again gave my speech that I had for slide 10 and took it to 11. He said, go back to slide 10 and do not change the slide. I don't have an interest in any other slide. Okay?

于是我回到第十页。结果他只想讨论第十页的内容。我的演示文稿原本列举了七项服务，第十页只是其中一项——但这正是让他极度头疼的问题。

So I took it back to slide 10. And all he wanted to talk about was what was on slide 10. My deck was talking about seven things we could do. Slide 10 was one of those seven. It was an extreme pain point for him.

他只需要解决这一个痛点，对我提到的其他杂七杂八的服务毫无需求。所以创业时你必须保持敏锐的倾听，客户或潜在客户会明确告诉你该做什么。你设想的方案可能只有80%、70%甚至40%的正确性。

He needed help on that one thing. He didn't need help on all the other riffraff stuff I was talking about. So when you're doing a startup, you have to be listening very carefully. Your customers or potential customers will tell you exactly what you need to do. Whatever you came up with, maybe 80% right or 70% right or 40% right.

但客户会指出100%正确的方向。明白吗？因为那是真正的痛点。会后我反思时意识到——从他当场就给我采购订单就能看出这个痛点有多严重——这将是许多人共同面临的难题。

But your customer will tell you what is 100% right. Okay? Because that's a real pain point. So I went back and thought about it. And I realized that his pain pointand and I could see it was a severe pain point because he gave me a purchase order at the end of that meeting, was going to be a pain point for a lot of people.

于是我重新设计，把第十页内容扩展成二十页幻灯片，这就是最终方案。其他内容全部舍弃。说实话，没有那位客户的点拨，我根本做不到这一点。

So I went back. I took slide 10, blew it up into 20 slides, and that became the deck. Okay? Everything else got thrown out. Right now, I couldn't have done that without him.

我的脑容量太小，想不明白这点。所以无论你做什么类型的创业，只要有原型或早期产品在推进，用户都会直接告诉你他们想要什么调整。

My brain is too small to have figured that out. So anytime you're doing a startup of any kind and you have a prototype or a early product or something going on, your users are going to tell you exactly what tweak they want.

你刚让我想起今早的一次对话

You've just reminded me of a conversation I had this morning

好的。

Okay.

当时我在面试一个人。虽然你说的很多都指向初创企业，但这其实是每个人日常生活的写照。今早我面试了公司一个关键岗位的候选人，这人在全球顶尖企业工作了二十年。面试时她不断讲述这二十年的各种经历，而我始终在试图聚焦一个问题。

Where I interviewed someone. Because much of what you're saying is orientated towards startups, but it's actually every single day of everyone's life. Because I interviewed someone this morning for a really critical role in the company, And this person has spent twenty years at one of the biggest companies in the world. And when I was doing the interview, she was telling me about lots of things she's done in those twenty years. And I was just trying to get to this one thing.

你能操办大型活动吗？她却一直在讲其他各种事情。实际上我来面试只想确认她能否筹办大型活动。一小时的谈话里，五十五分钟都在聊我不感兴趣的内容。听着你说话时我突然想到——你知道她本可以在对话开始时怎么做吗？

Can you put on events? And she was telling me about this and that and the other thing and this and this and the other thing. And I was just act I'd only come to this interview to figure out if she could do put on big scale events. So we spent of an hour conversation, we spent fifty five minutes talking about a bunch of things I wasn't interested in. And actually, as you were speaking, I was going, do know what she could have done at the start of that conversation?

她完全可以说：'史蒂文，我能先问个问题吗？您对这个岗位的核心需求是什么？'那我就会回答只需要活动策划能力。剩下五十五分钟她本可以用来证明自己这方面的能力。

She could have gone, Steven, can I ask you one question? What is the what are you looking for from Right. From this person? And if and then I would have gone, I just want some of that component events. And then the next fifty five minutes could have been persuading me that she can do that.

没错。这正好印证了你刚才的观点。假设你是当天会议中的销售人员，以你现在所知，如何在不展示全部幻灯片的情况下做得更好？

Sure. And it just applies to what you just said there. How could you, of this as the salesperson that day in that meeting, with what you know now, how could you have done a better job without going through all of those slides?

嗯，如果我现在要做类似的事情，我会把倾听的敏感度提升十倍。要知道，我们说话时学不到东西，倾听时才能。所以我会尽量少说多听，甚至不会过分依赖幻灯片。

Well, I think what what I would do now if I were doing something like that is that my my radar on listening would be 10x. You know, we don't learn when we speak. We learn when we listen. So I would really be trying to talk less and extract more. And I wouldn't even rely so much on slides.

我想真正引导他们说出想表达的内容。基本上，如果你研究企业——无论是风投支持还是非风投支持的——这非常普遍。几乎没有企业最终采用最初设想的商业模式，那简直太反常了。真正塑造产品的，是创始团队与早期客户间的互动，就像把湿黏土塑造成人们想要的样子。

I'd like to really try to bring them in into what they are trying to say. And and and so, basically, in if if you study if you study businesses, you know, venture backed, non venture backed, whatever, this is a very common thing. There are almost no businesses who end up with the business model that was originally conceived. I mean, that just would be such an anomaly. It's really the interplay between the founding team and the early customers which really leads to taking this wet clay and making it into something that people want.

比如谷歌眼镜，他们当初以为全世界都会戴那副眼镜。结果失败了。为什么？因为那涉及极度私人的领域——

And so, you know, if you think of something like Google Glass, you know, when they came up with those glasses that they thought the whole world was gonna wear. Yeah. So it didn't work. Well, why didn't it work? Well, the reason it didn't work is you're talking about something extremely personal.

明白吗？就像箭牌口香糖。我的口腔是很私密的空间，我可不会随便放杂牌口香糖进去。

Okay? Like, for example, Rigley's chewing gum. Okay? My mouth is a very personal space. I'm not gonna put glott's chewing gum in there.

什么是杂牌口香糖？这就对了。

What's glott's chewing gum? Exactly.

明白。

Okay.

没错。你才不会往嘴里放价格只有箭牌一半的杂牌货，因为根本不感兴趣。

Okay. Yeah. You're not gonna put some brand that's half the price of Wrigley's Yeah. In there because you don't want to go there. That's not of interest to you.

所以当我们佩戴眼镜、太阳镜或任何穿戴物品时，这是非常个人化的。因此人体工程学和人为因素至关重要。如果稍有偏差——现在Meta正尝试做同样的事。但他们选择了与雷朋合作，对吧？

So when we wear glasses or sunglasses or anything we wear, that's very personal. So the ergonomics and the human factors are very important. If it's slightly off now, Meta is trying to do the same thing. But they went to Ray Ban. Right?

他们与雷朋成立了合资公司。那些眼镜看起来和普通眼镜一样。我认为成功几率更高。

They did a JV with Ray Ban. Those glasses look like normal glasses. I think there's a higher chance.

嗯，我有一副。但还没用过。是的。

Well, I've got some. I haven't used them. Yeah.

你没有Google Glass吧。

You don't have any Google Glass.

不，不，不，

No, no, no,

不。我

no. I

我想他们终止了这个项目，不是吗？

I think they cut the project, didn't they?

是的。我想说的是我们必须极度关注客户。史蒂夫·乔布斯说得对，客户并不知道自己想要什么。明白吗？

Yeah. So what I'm trying to say is that we have to pay very close attention to the customer. Mean, Steve Jobs was right. The customer doesn't know what he wants. Okay?

但如果你把产品摆在他们面前，他们就能调整并明确告诉你需求。对吧？这就是另一个思维模型——第三个模型：任何创始团队都不够聪明，无法凭空揣测人们的需求。句号。

But if you put it in front of them, then they can now tweak and tell you exactly what they want. Right? That And that's another mental model, which is now we get to the third model, which is that you're not smart enough. Whatever founding team you have is not smart enough to figure out what people want. Period.

所以你必须具备出色的倾听能力，保持灵活性。倾听时要区分信号与噪音，接收真实需求，过滤无效信息。这样你才能走上更有意义的道路。

So you have to have very good listening skills and you have to have the flexibility to and again, when you're listening, separate the signal from the noise. Right? Take in what is real signal and leave out what is the noise. And then you're starting to get down a path which is going to make more sense.

这里可能还隐含了另一个模型，就是对细节的关注。当你说沃尔玛创始人躺在货架间测量厘米级间距时...

The other thing that's kind of a model maybe woven into there was this idea of just attention to detail. I'm not even sure if that's a model, but when you told me about the Walmart founders laying between the aisles to measure the exact centimeter of length

没错。

Yeah.

这个模型对我来说就是极致精确与细节把控。

The model there for me was just like precision and detail.

这是场寸土必争的游戏。山姆·沃尔顿当年为公司命名时选择'沃尔玛'，就因为这是七个字母的名字——他计算过店铺招牌的制作成本，字母越少越省钱。懂了吗？

It's a game of inches. I mean, what I'm saying is that when when Sam Walton was trying to figure out the name of the company, one of the reasons he went with Walmart was it was seven letters. And he was looking at the cost of putting up signage in his stores. And he was trying to come up with a name with the fewest letters because it costs less. Okay?

所以，我是说，成本敏感度在沃尔玛无处不在。这直接关系到他们的核心业务，对吧？他们真的能从石头里榨出血来。基本上，我认为这正是他们如此成功的原因。在商业中，你总能控制的就是成本。

And so, I mean, cost sensitivity is all over the place in Walmart. I mean, that's just front and center of what they do, right? They just really squeeze blood out of a rock. So basically, I mean, I think that was, and that's the reason why they became so successful. One of the things you can always control in business is your costs.

你可能无法控制利润率、售价等许多其他因素，但你总能控制成本。因此，这是另一种需要纪律的商业模式。在成本方面必须保持极强的纪律性。看看像LVMH这样的公司，经营它的人身处奢侈品行业，定位高端。

You you may not be able to control your margins and selling prices and a lot of other things, but you can always control costs. So that's another model where you have to have discipline. You have to have very strong discipline on the cost side. If you look at something like LVMH, you know, the guy who runs it, I mean, he's in luxury goods. He's in high end.

LVMH，生产路易威登，还有

LVMH, make Louis Vuitton, and

对，对，对。我是说，涵盖一切。明白吗？

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, everything. You know?

他们收购了蒂芙尼等众多品牌。但观察公司的运营方式，你会发现它非常严谨。他会为最佳地段投入重金，因为这很重要。但他在这些地产交易中谈成的条件令人震惊。所以在一个本不需要如此严苛的品类里，他建立了极其精细的运营体系。

You know, they've taken over Tiffany's, everyone. But when you look at how the company is run, it's very tight. He spends money on the best real estate because that's important. But the deals he negotiates on those real estate is mind blowing. So it's a very tightly run operation on a product category that doesn't necessarily need it.

但这就是他成为欧洲首富的原因。

But that's why he's become the wealthiest guy in Europe.

因为这种思维会贯彻到每个决策中。完全正确。如果将其应用于一百件事上，效果就会显现。

Because that mentality will then apply to every decision. Absolutely. And if you apply it to a 100 things, it does matter.

哦，这很重要。非常非常重要。是的。

Oh, it does matter. Big time. Yes.

我这里有一些黄色的方块

So I have these yellow blocks here

是的。

Yes.

它们代表你为自己事业工作的时间。

Which represent working hours working on your own business.

是的。

Yes.

那么告诉我你会如何拿走其中一些方块

So show me how you would take some of these blocks away

是的。

Yes.

并介绍你花在自己事业上的工作时间。

And introduce hours working on your own business.

是的。基本上，这其实很简单。我们不会打乱睡眠周期，这部分保持不变。

Yeah. So, basically, it's it's really quite simple. We're not really not gonna mess with our sleep cycles. We're gonna leave that alone.

睡眠保持不变。

Sleep staying the same.

我们需要保留蓝色部分——即每周40小时的工作时间。但要做的一个调整是搬到工作地点附近住，尽可能减少通勤时间。

And we we need our blue, which is our works workspace forty hours. We need that to continue. One of the changes we're gonna make is we're gonna live close to work. We're gonna cut down commute time as much as we can.

好的。

Okay.

因为每小时都很重要。我们要聚焦的是空闲时间。之所以能压缩空闲时间，是因为正如刚才讨论的，我们追求的不是赚钱，而是让音乐作品面世。

Because every hour matters. Okay. So the area that we're gonna focus on is the free time. Okay. And the reason why taking out the free time is not a problem is because what we are embarking on, like we just discussed, is not about making money, it's getting our music out.

让音乐作品面世？你具体指什么？

Getting our music out. What do you mean by that?

这意味着我们内心深知世界需要某些东西，而我们渴望将其带给这个世界。我们想把它带给世界。正因如此，这并非工作。

Which means that we have something in us that we know the world needs, and we want to bring it to that world. We want to bring it to the world. And because we wanna bring it to the world, it's not work.

我想观众可能在心中自我质疑：但我热爱我的工作啊。我属于少数幸运儿，每天能与小狗共事，我对此充满热爱。

I think the audience might be challenging themselves in their head and saying, but I love my the thing I do for work. I'm I'm one of maybe the rarer group of people that I get to work with puppies every day, and I love that.

是的。我认为这并不适用于所有人。你需要扪心自问：如果你对朝九晚五的工作及投入主要精力的领域真正感到兴奋，那太棒了。这非常好。

Yeah. So I think that I think this is not for everyone. So I think you have to ask yourself who you are. If you are truly excited about your nine to five job and what you're spending your main working main waking hours on, awesome. That's great.

并非人人都要成为企业家或创办初创公司。有些人可能通过他人平台以不同方式传播音乐，这完全没问题。但如果你上班时缺乏热情，早晨不愿起床，工作时毫无雀跃之感，那就存在问题。你必须自问：是否有其他真正热爱的事情想做？

I mean, everyone's not gonna be an entrepreneur. Everyone's not gonna have a startup. Everyone they're they may be getting their music out in a different way on someone else's platform, which is perfectly fine. And but but if if that is not you, where when you go to work, you're not super excited to get up in the in the morning and you're not tap dancing to work every day, if that's not happening, then there's something wrong. And you have to ask yourself, well, is there something else that is that you're passionate about, that you wanna do?

这不应是件费力的事。以比尔·盖茨和保罗·艾伦为例。盖茨在哈佛看到杂志上刊登早期个人电脑时，立即意识到范式转变的到来。

And this is not something that should take a lot of effort. So if we go back and look at, for example, Bill Gates and Paul Allen. Right? I mean, Gates is at Harvard and he sees a magazine which shows a very early personal computer. And he realizes that there's a paradigm shift.

他明白自己必须参与其中。而寄来那本杂志的正是保罗·艾伦，他对比尔说'我们必须立即行动，现在就是我们的时代'。对盖茨而言，这是个极其轻松的决定。

And he realizes that he needs to be part of it. And Paul Allen is the one who sent him that magazine. And he told Bill, we gotta go do this now. This is our time now. And for Bill, it was a very easy decision.

非常轻松的决定。但对他父母却难以接受——他们震惊于儿子要放弃学位。盖茨安慰父母道：'别担心，我会回来完成学业的。'

Very easy decision. Very difficult for his parents. His parents were in shock that he's gonna abandon his degree. And, you know, he he told his parents, don't worry about it. I'm gonna come back and I'll finish the degree.

几十年后，哈佛大学授予了他荣誉学位。他的父母当时就在观众席上，他对他们说，我告诉过你们我会回来的。圆满收场，对吧？

And several decades later, Harvard gave him an honorary degree. And his parents were in the audience, and he told them, I told you I'd come back. Finish it off. Right?

根据目前统计数据显示，正在收听的人中有12%明确表示对工作不满意，这意味着他们讨厌自己的工作。全球85%的员工处于消极工作状态，即他们并未全心投入或对工作感到快乐。这是一个庞大的数字。超过半数的美国员工至少对工作有些许满意，但工作投入度仍低得令人担忧。所以当我们看到那个85%的数据时，意味着全球85%的员工没有完全投入或享受工作。

So as I put some numbers to this, 12% of people, according to the stats that are listening right now, are explicitly unsatisfied with their job, which means they hate it. 85% of workers globally are disengaged, meaning they're not fully invested or happy at work. So it's a huge number of people. More than half of The US workers are at least somewhat satisfied, but engagement remains worryingly low. So if we look at that 85% number, 85% of workers globally are disengaged, meaning not fully invested or happy at work.

所以问题真正出在这群人身上。而且

So it's really those people. And

关键在于，仅仅对工作感到不快乐是不够的。那只是问题的一部分。这种不快乐可能是种征兆。而原因之一可能是你的人生另有使命，而你并未追随它。比如像比尔·盖茨和保罗·艾伦这样的人，他们找到了自己的使命。

the thing is it's not just enough to be unhappy at work. That's one piece of it. The unhappiness can be a symptom. And one of the causes can be that you have a different calling in life and you are not following your calling. Now, sometimes, for someone like Bill Gates, for example, and Paul Allen, they figure out their calling.

然后他们就义无反顾地前进了，对吧？但对大多数人来说，可能没那么简单。所以我们需要做的是尝试不同事物。就像试穿不同的鞋子看看哪双合脚。你可以进行一些思想实验。

And they just went, right? For many of us, it may not be that easy. So what we have to do is we have to try a few things. You know, you try on different shoes to see what fits. And so, you know, have some thought experiments.

和朋友聊聊。比如说，好吧，我是个UPS快递司机，这是我的工作。但我真正喜欢的是弹吉他。或者我喜欢在家做这些艺术小雕像之类的东西。

Talk to your friends. You know, say, okay, you know, I'm a UPS driver. This is what I do. And I really like playing the guitar. Or I like to make these art figurines or something at home, whatever else.

对吧？所以你必须弄清楚自己的使命是什么。而我可能不是告诉你如何找到使命的最佳人选。也许你们中的其他人能在这方面帮助他们。

Right? So you have to figure out what your calling is. And I'm probably not the best person to tell you how to figure out what the calling is. Maybe another of yours can help them with that.

你认为每个人都有天职吗？

Do you think everyone has a calling?

是的。我是说，我认为我们都是上帝独特的孩子。而且我觉得我们都有想要表达的音乐。了解那是什么并将其表达出来可能不是最容易的事，但尝试到达那里是一段值得的旅程。对吧？

Yeah. I mean, I think we are all unique children of God. And I think we all have some music we wanna get out. And knowing what that is and getting it out may not be the easiest thing, but it's a worthwhile journey to try to get there. Right?

所以我们不能仅仅因为不满就做这件事。也不能仅仅因为想赚钱致富就做。我们必须有一些我们认为世界会感兴趣的东西。就我而言，我曾与几位工业心理学家进行过这样的会谈。他们告诉我，莫尼什，你喜欢玩游戏。

So we can't do this just because we're dissatisfied. And we can't do this just because we want to make money and get rich. We've got to have something that we think the world would be interested in. And in my case, I'd gone through this session with a couple of industrial psychologists. And they told me, Monish, you like to play games.

你是个游戏玩家。实际上，他们说得再准确不过了。所以当我创业时，我是个数字和数学方面的人，所以我确实喜欢那样。所以我过去常做的是，因为我没有钱，我每周会向200家不同公司的高级IT人员发送200封信。但我所做的这些，所有我发送信件的人，他们都有一个看门人，比如秘书等，他们的工作就是不让任何东西通过。

You're a game player. And actually, they couldn't be more accurate. So when I was doing my startup, I'm a numbers guy and a math guy, so I actually like that. So what I used to do is, because I had no money, I used to send 200 letters a week to the senior IT people at 200 different companies. But what I did is so all these people I was sending this letter to, they had a gatekeeper, some secretary, etcetera, whose job was to not let anything through.

我的全部目的就是需要这封信通过。它需要通过看门人。所以我使用邮件合并，大量生产这些信件，但有一个定制的地方，邮件中的措辞，如果某个人的名字是大卫·史密斯，它会说，亲爱的戴夫。明白吗？然后在整封信中，它都在谈论戴夫。

And my whole purpose was I need this letter to get through. It needs to get through the gatekeeper. So I was using mail merge, was mass producing these letters, but there was a customization, the mail word, where if some person's name was David Smith, it said, dear Dave. Okay? And then throughout the letter, it talked Dave.

戴夫的名字出现了大约三、四次。当助手收到这封信时，她无法判断我是否认识戴夫。

Dave's name came up like three, four times. When the assistant got the letter, she couldn't tell whether I know Dave or not.

因为你用了他的昵称。

Because you used his shortened name.

名字要简短些。而且她不想扔掉一封来自他认识的人的信。所以这封信会经过足够多次传递。对吧？接下来我在信件送达一周后还做了件事——打电话。

Shorter name. And she doesn't want to throw a letter that somebody that he knows. So the letter would go through enough times. Right? Now what I also did is one week after those letters were delivered, I called.

我打了200通电话。我给所有200个人都打了电话。基本上，如果转到语音信箱就留言，诸如此类。对吧？现在他们已进入销售漏斗。

I made 200 calls. I called all 200 people. And basically, if I got voicemail, left a message, whatever else. Right? Now they have entered the sales funnel.

明白吗？所以戴夫·史密斯现在在销售漏斗里。如果一周后没收到戴夫的回复，我会再打一次。之后通话间隔会成倍延长：两周、四周、八周、十六周。

Okay? So Dave Smith is in the sales funnel. If I get no response from Dave Smith, after one week, there's one more call. Then the calls start getting spaced out double time. Two weeks out, then four weeks out, then eight weeks out, then sixteen weeks out.

但戴夫永远不会离开这个漏斗。除非他明确说别再打扰我/我完全没兴趣，否则他们会一直待在漏斗里。第二周我又寄出200封信，再打200通电话。对吧？

But Dave never leaves that funnel. Okay? Until he tells me, do not bother me anymore and I have no interest, they're gonna stay in that funnel. So the second week, I send out another 200 letters, make another 200 calls. Right?

现在我有第一周和第二周的名单。随着时间推移，你可以看到我在持续不断地打电话。因为我在追踪数据——毕竟我是搞数学的。我追踪的是：这200封信发出去后，

And now I've got the first week, second week. So you can see as time goes on, I'm calling nonstop. Right? Because this thing is but what I was tracking because I'm a math guy. What I was tracking is, okay, these 200 letters went out.

得到了多少积极回应？毕竟不是所有人都让我滚开。以及我安排了多少次会议？

How many people did I get any kind of positive response from? Right? Because not everyone's telling me to get lost. Okay? And how many meetings am I having?

通话与会议的转化率是多少？会议与成交的比率又是多少？我销售的商品单价很高，达数十万美元。坚持九个月后——现在让我们回到这里。我们要利用空闲时间。

And what is the ratio of calls to meetings, meetings to close, etcetera? And my ticket size of the item I was selling was very large, hundreds of thousands of dollars. Right? Nine months after doing this, where now let's go back here. So we're gonna take our free time.

所以我想描述的是，我正在做的事情实际上比橙色更令人兴奋。黄色比橙色更令人兴奋。那么黄色到底是什么？黄色就是我们的创业项目。

So what I've tried to describe is that what I'm doing is actually more exciting than the orange. The yellow is more exciting than the orange. So basically What is the yellow? The yellow is our startup.

所以你是在忙你的创业项目。

So that's working on your startup.

所以在周末，我每天会投入十小时，因为我不工作。对吧？而在工作日，我每天会投入四小时，因为我有其他事情要做，比如我有工作和其他事务。所以工作日五天里我每天投入四小时，周末则投入十小时。而那些空闲时间，可没有持续纠缠戴夫来得刺激。

So on on the weekends, I'm gonna do ten hours a day because I'm not working. Right? And on the weekdays, I'm gonna do four hours a day because I've got other things to do, because I have a job and whatever else is going on. So there's my weekdays, five days there where I'm putting in four hours a day, and then I'm putting in ten hours on the weekend. And the free time, this is not as exciting as pounding Dave.

持续纠缠戴夫直到他说要么别烦我要么给你采购订单，这非常刺激。比刷社交媒体或看网飞之类的事刺激多了。

Pounding Dave continuously till he says either get off my back or here's your purchase order is very exciting. It's way more exciting than playing some social media or watching Netflix or whatever else.

这正是人们现在打发空闲时间的方式。

Which is what people currently do with their free Right.

所以判断你是否应该创业的一个试金石就是：黄色必须比橙色更令人兴奋。

So one of your one of the litmus tests of whether you need to you should be doing a startup or not is yellow needs to be more exciting than orange.

你的创业项目必须更令人兴奋

Your startup needs to be more exciting

就像你的免费Netflix应该让你觉得无聊透顶。刷Facebook或Instagram之类的也该让你感到极度乏味。

Like than your free Netflix should be so painfully boring for you. And going on Facebook or Instagram or whatever should be very boring for you.

相比之下这个才叫刺激。相比起经营你的事业。没错。

Compared to This is exciting. Compared to building your company. Yes.

所以你知道平克·弗洛伊德那首歌《我们不需要教育》。对。我们不需要思想控制。对。这些我们统统不需要。

So, you know, the Pink Floyd song, We don't need no education. Yep. We don't need no thought control. Yep. We don't need none of this.

这太没用了。你明白这有多无用吗？黄色才是关键。不是那些橙色的东西。我们不需要这个。

This is so useless. You understand how useless this is? Yellow is where it's at. It's not it's not the orange stuff. We don't need this.

谢谢你，史蒂文。

Thank you, Steven.

所以我们不需要任何空闲时间？

So we don't need any free time?

这比空闲时间更有价值。

This is better than free time.

打造你的事业。

Building your business.

你每小时都在经历高潮。那么还有什么比这更好的呢？

You're having an orgasm every hour. So what can you what what can be better than this?

我在这里进行这些对话时，大部分时间都在尝试设身处地为那些朝九晚五工作的人着想。他们心中有个想法，但这个想法尚未真正落地。他们生活中感受到的压力，现在很可能来自财务方面——渴望财务自由，希望生活有更多选择权，能去度假、做更多决定、拥有更多自由。如果你是这类人，我们尚未讨论的哪些思维模式能帮你从零到一？

Much of what I do here when I'm having these conversations is I'm trying to put myself in the shoes of the person who is currently sat in a in a nine to five job, and they've they've got an idea, and their idea is isn't really hasn't really gone anywhere yet necessarily. And the the pressure they're feeling in their lives is is probably now a financial one. Like, want financial freedom. They want more optionality in their lives to be able to go on holiday, make more choices, and have more freedom. If you're that person, what are the mental models that we haven't discussed yet you need to be thinking about to get from zero to one?

需要记住的是，当今世界大多数创业行为都不需要大量资金。这意味着什么？启动成本很低。事实上，随着时间推移，初创企业需要的资金越来越少，而需要越来越多的脑力投入。对吧？

So one of the things to keep in mind is that we live in a world now where most things that you would want to do in terms of starting a business are not capital intensive. What does that mean? Doesn't take much money. In fact, what's been happening over time is startups need less and less and less money because they need more and more and more brainpower. Right?

好消息是资金并非决定性门槛。我创业时申请了所有能办的信用卡——拥有7万美元未使用信用额度和十几张Visa/Master卡。还动用了退休账户里的3万美元401K养老金，想着25岁时透支未来总能补上。

So the good news is that a gating factor is not that you need money. When when I started my business, I took on I signed up for every credit card that would come to me. So I had 70,000 in unused credit lines and probably a dozen Visa and Mastercards. Right? I had about $30,000 in my retirement account, my 40 1 K, which I also took out and said, 25, I can make that up later.

就这样我凑了10万美元启动资金。业务运转后这些钱都用作运营资本等开销。但九个月后公司就开始正向现金流，我很快还清了这些债务。

Right? So basically, I had $100,000 of capital. And that $100,000 got used because once I got going, I needed working capital and so on. And but then the business was the business was actually cash flow positive. Nine months after I was doing this, I was able to get rid of this.

所以九个月后，当业务产生足够现金流时，我就去辞职了。我直接告诉直属上司和他上级：我创业了，业务与公司无竞争，现提交两周离职通知。

So after nine months, my business was producing enough cash flow that I went and resigned. Okay? And, yeah, we can we can put that in here as well. So what happened is that I went to my boss and his boss and basically told them that I started a business. It's not competitive with the company and I'm going to be leaving in two weeks and this is my two weeks notice.

基本上，事情就是这样。对吧？他们让我坐下，说，莫尼什，过去九个月我们非常困惑，因为我们多次见面，看到你的表现大幅下滑，但从未低到要解雇你的程度。我说，没错。这正是我想要达到的效果。

And basically, that was that. Right? And, you know, they they sat me down and said, you know, Monish, we were so confused for the last nine months because we met several times because we saw big drop off in your performance, but it was never so low that we wanted to fire you. I said, exactly. That was exactly what I was trying to do.

我试图保持在刚好不会被解雇的水平。他说，你掌握得恰到好处。因为我们多次讨论，却无法解雇你。最后他们告诉我：听着，当你的创业失败时——不是如果，是当你的创业失败时——请回来。

I was trying to say just about firing level. He said, well, you mastered it. Because we we met several times, but we couldn't get rid of you. So they what they told me is they said, look. When your business fails, not if your business fails, when your business fails, please come back.

我们会给你更多资金。你将获得晋升，我们很乐意让你回来。我可以立即复职。所以我得到了一次免费尝试的机会：离职创业，若失败，几乎能原封不动地回到原点。

We'll give you more money. You're going to get a promotion, and we'd love to have you back. I could immediately come back. So I said I got one free shot where I leave my job, I go, I do this thing, and if it doesn't work, I'm back to almost exactly where I was. Almost no change.

对吧？亚马逊的类型一、类型二决策模式。

Right? Amazon's type one, type two decision making Yeah.

这并非我的特例。比尔·盖茨承担了什么风险？作为哈佛大一新生，他在就业市场上的价值是多少？零。

And so and this is not just me. What risk does Bill Gates take? Okay. Bill Gates, what is his value as a Harvard freshman in the job market? Zero.

没人会付他高薪。而他随时可以回去完成学位。假设他去新墨西哥州创业失败——

Okay. He nobody would pay him anything. And he could come back anytime and finish that degree. So let's say he went to New Mexico. Things didn't work out.

他在西雅图有富裕的父母。大不了晚一年毕业继续人生。这算什么风险？根本不存在风险。

He's got wealthy parents in Seattle. Okay? He just comes back, graduates a year later, and he goes on. So what was the risk? There was no risk.

如果你研究一个又一个企业家，你会发现，以理查德·布兰森爵士为例，他想创办一家航空公司。要知道，创办航空公司需要一架价值约1.5亿美元的波音747大型客机。

And if you study entrepreneur after entrepreneur after entrepreneur, what you're gonna find so if we look at Sir Richard Branson, he wants to start an airline. Okay? Now to start the airline, you need a jumbo seven four seven that costs like a 150,000,000.

那架飞机。

The plane.

没错，就是那架飞机。这可是笔巨额资金。而理查德·布兰森却以零资金、零风险让维珍航空成功起飞。以下是他的做法。

The plane. Right? That's some serious money. Richard Branson got Virgin Atlantic off the ground with zero and with zero risks. So here's what he did.

他用创造性思维替代了资本。于是他拨打了(206) 555-1212——这是华盛顿州西雅图的查号台，询问波音公司的电话号码。接着他打给了波音总机。

You replace capital with creative thinking. So he calls (206) 555-1212, which is directory assistance in Seattle, Washington. And he asked for the phone number for Boeing. Okay. So he calls the main Boeing switchboard.

波音是卖飞机的对吧？

Boeing sells the planes, right?

是的，波音制造747客机。他打给这家巨型企业的总机说想租赁一架大型客机，结果对方直接挂断了电话。

Yeah. Boeing makes the seven forty seven. So he calls the main switchboard of Boeing, giant huge company, and says, I'd like to lease a jumbo. And they hang up on him. Okay?

他连续拨打了约30次，每次都被挂断。最后接线员不胜其烦，说会转接给租赁部门负责人让他死心。于是他被转接给了真正负责大型客机租赁的人员。

He calls about 30 times, and they keep hanging up. And finally, they get tired of his calls. And the lady says, let me put you in touch with somebody who's in charge of leasing and they can tell you to get lost. Okay? So she transferred him to a person who's actually leasing jumbos.

这个人对理查德说，听着，布兰森先生，在每个国家，我们只有一个客户。在英国，那就是英国航空公司。所以我们没什么可谈的。于是他说，好吧，就当是陪我聊一会儿。他说，如果英国航空打电话给你，说他们想租一架旧的二手大型客机，你们手头有闲置的吗？

This person tells Richard, says, look, mister Branson, in every country, we have one customer. And in The UK, that is the British that is British Airways. So we have nothing to talk about. So he said, well, just humor me for a second. He said, if British Airways called you and said that they wanted to lease old used jumbo, Do you have one lying around?

那人回答，事实上我们确实有一架，但这只是理论上的可能。他追问，那么你们会以什么价格租给英国航空呢？就当是闲聊。最终波音公司把那架大型客机租给了他。他们之所以愿意出租，是因为正好有架飞机闲置着。

So the guy said, as a matter of fact, we do, but that's academic. He said, well, what would you lease it to British Airways for? Just since we're having a conversation. What ended up happening is Boeing leased him that jumbo. And the reason they leased him the jumbo is they had one just sitting around.

所以他们实际上没有承担任何风险，因为约定只要对方停止付款，就会立即收回飞机。明白吗？当你经营航空公司时，所有座位都是提前四个月售出的。资金早已到位。燃油费在飞机降落三十天后支付，租赁费也是在飞机降落后结算——根本不需要任何启动资金。

So they didn't really have any risk because they said the moment the guy doesn't make any payments, we're gonna pull the plane. Right? So now when you have an airline, you sell all the seats four months in advance. The cash has already come in. You pay for the fuel thirty days after the plane lands, and you pay for the lease after the plane lands, you don't need any capital.

维珍大西洋航空就是这样零资金起步的。懂吗？如果你能零资金启动需要大型客机的航空公司，那么任何生意都可以零资金起步。当你观察一个又一个企业案例时，会发现它们都是从小规模开始，处于萌芽状态时尽量降低风险，获得首批客户后，就依靠客户群体逐步发展壮大。

Virgin Atlantic got off the ground with zero capital. Okay? Now if you can start an airline that needs a jumbo with zero capital, you can start any business with zero capital. Okay? So so basically, when you look at business after business after business, all of them, what they do is they start small, they're embryonic, they minimize risk, they get a few customers, and then after that, they just roll with the customers.

对吧？这就是它们的成长路径。所以关键在于，当我们把蓝色部分剔除后，当蓝色不复存在时——

Right? And then that's how they get going. So the important thing is that when we take the blue out, when blue is no longer here

指的是工作部分。

Which is work.

当工作部分消失后，黄色部分几乎会翻倍或增至三倍，因为这里才是所有令人兴奋的活动发生的地方。

Which work is gone, yellow is gonna almost double or triple because this is where all the orgasmic activity is.

于是我们调整了工作时间。我们辞去了朝九晚五的工作，把那些时间转移到为

So we moved the work. We quit the nine to five job, and we moved that time over to work for the

创业公司工作。我当时在忙我的创业项目，早上七点到九点，然后晚上六点回来工作到十点或十二点。

start up. I I was working on my start up, like, from seven to nine in the morning. And then I would come back 6PM and work till ten or twelve in the evening.

你当时还有份工作。

You had a job.

那时我还有工作。周末我也会工作。我迫切希望能全职投入创业，因为我坚信只要让我全职做，我就能大展拳脚。结果正是如此。第一年我们就实现了40万美元的收入。

When I had my job. And then I'd work on the weekends. And I was so desperate to just go full time into it because I just said, if you just let me go full time, I can tear it up. And that's exactly what happened. I mean, we in about five first year, we did 400,000 revenue.

第二年140万，第三年300万。到了第六七年，我们的收入达到了约15.17亿美元。因为那时我彻底摆脱了束缚，明白吗？

Second year, 1,400,000.0. Third year, 3,000,000. And by the sixth or seventh year, were at about $1,517,000,000. It just grew because basically then I had no shackles on me. You know?

我可以全力以赴。我清楚这些数据的意义——多少电话、多少信件意味着什么。这套模式很有效。如果行不通，你还可以回到朝九晚五的工作，再试一次。

I could just go full out. Right? And the engine, I knew all the statistics of these letters, so many calls, so many this, so much this means this and all of that. And it works. And if it doesn't work, you can go back to your nine to five and give it another shot.

所以实际上你可以多次尝试这种模式。

So you actually could do this a few times.

我认为这是一个被严重低估的框架，或者像你说的思维模式，因为你提到你寄出了200封信。对吧？很多次孩子们在街上拦住我说，看啊，我一直在找工作，发了六封邮件。

I think that's a really unappreciated framework, as you call it, or mental model, which is because you said you sent 200 letters. Right? So many times kids come up to me in the street and they say, look, I've been looking for a job. I've sent six emails. Yeah.

然后他们会说，没人回复我。你能看出这打击了他们的信心，现在他们得出的结论是找工作变得更难甚至不可能，因为他们只尝试了六次。而当我面试像你这样的人时，他们给出的数字都大得多。

And they go, no one's got back to me. Yeah. And you can see that it's hit hit their confidence, and now they've actually arrived at the conclusion that getting a job is, like, harder and possible because they sense six. Yeah. Now when I interview people like you, they all give me much bigger numbers.

他们会说200、300甚至500次。这其中有种平均法则在起作用——多挥棒才能击中球，就像板球运动一样。

They say 200, 300, five you know? And there's something in this sort of law of averages, which is just like, just take more swings. You know, you see it in, like, cricket.

我女儿从伯克利毕业时来找我，她的话让我很惊讶。她说想去对冲基金工作。要知道她的专业并非商科，甚至不是会被考虑的自然候选人。

My my daughter, when she was graduating from Berkeley, came to me and I was really surprised. She said, I wanna work at a hedge fund. And so I I said, okay. And her degree was not in business. So she was not a natural candidate to be even considered.

我说：你能列出纽约和洛杉矶所有对冲基金的清单吗？用Excel记录管理合伙人姓名和地址。虽然不知道邮箱，但邮寄地址是公开信息。

I said, can you make a list of every hedge fund in New York and LA? And put it in Excel, managing partner's name, address. Now, we don't know people's email addresses, but we know everyone's mailing address. Okay? The mailing address is a public piece of data.

地址很容易获取。最后她整理出约1200家基金的名单。我告诉她要在求职信后附两页股票分析，推荐一家能赚钱的公司。我们寄出了1200封实体信件。

The address. The address is easy, And I said that so she got a list of about 1,200 funds in LA and New York. And I said, what you're going to do is you're gonna ask for the job, but you're gonna have two pages behind that giving them a stock tip. You're gonna give them a pitch that you have written up of a company that if they invest in, they're likely to make money. We sent the 1,200 letters, physical letters.

全部都是实体信，没有电邮。结果纽约有位85岁的老先生收到了其中一封。

Okay? All physical letters. No email. Right? And there's a 85 year old guy in New York who gets the letter.

他已经退休了。那个基金不存在。它本不该出现在名单上，无所谓了。但他在洛杉矶有个朋友。对方说，嘿杰米，你不是在找分析师吗？

He's retired. The fund doesn't exist. It shouldn't have been on the list, whatever. But he has a friend in LA. He says, hey, Jamie, aren't aren't you looking for an analyst?

而这个女孩，她的背景看起来堪称完美。最终她拿到的薪水比所有伯克利商学院毕业、GPA比她高得多的人都高。

And this girl, she seems to have the perfect kind of background. And she ends up with a higher salary than anyone who went to Berkeley Business School with a much higher GPA than hers.

我一直在思考你说的话。前几天我做了个视频，觉得有些关联性。当时我试图向人们解释如何发送能产生影响力的信息。我总结出的框架——稍后会在屏幕上做动画演示——本质上这条轴代表你所用渠道的信号与噪音比。嗯。高信号渠道是指能绕过助理直达本人的方式。

I was thinking about what you're saying. And I made a video the other day, which I think is somewhat relevant, where I was trying to describe to people how to send a message to someone in a way that creates impact. And the framework that I came up with, which I'll I'll we'll animate on the screen, but it's basically so this axis here is the signal versus noise of the channel you're using. Mhmm. So a high signal channel is one where it gets past the PA.

嗯。这种渠道信息干扰少，更直接。而高噪音渠道正相反，比如发邮件到公司press@yourcompany.com这种通用邮箱。确实。

Mhmm. It's less saturated, less busy. A high noise channel, which is the opposite, would be sending an email Yeah. To the, like, press@yourcompany.com's email. Sure.

所以这种路径信息根本到不了本人手里。另一条轴则代表信息的情感冲击力。对。高情感冲击就像你说的，附上股票内幕消息，绝对让人印象深刻。

So, like, everyone goes through that path and doesn't get doesn't get to the person. And then the other axis is basically the emotional impact of the message. Yeah. So high emotional impact is doing what you said, put a stock tip in there. You're gonna stand out.

虽然对方可能觉得你有点古怪。或者像你说的缩写名字，能增强情感共鸣。低情感冲击就是...对...那些AI生成的...对...复制粘贴的套话。

They're gonna think you're a little bit strange. Or what you said about, like, shortening the name, that creates more emotional resonance. And then low would just be Yeah. AI slop Yeah. Copy and paste jargon.

真正成功的信息都在这个象限。绝对。高信号渠道加上高情感共鸣。绝对。但现实是人们总在低效区域狂发信息，然后因没回应而沮丧消沉，自然没人回复我。

And really, like, the most successful messages are up here. Absolutely. High like, high signal channel, high emotionally resonant. Absolutely. But what ends up happening is people send loads of messages down here, and then they get depressed and demotivated, so no one's going back to me.

是的。迈克尔·乔丹曾说过，你错过的每一个投篮都是因为你不投。对。对。对。

Yeah. Michael Jordan used to say, you miss every shot you don't take. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

所以，基本上，我认为创业者需要具备韧性。对我来说，我关注的数据是，如果我寄出5000封信，耗时25周也就是半年，最终能促成多少次会议？如果能换来10或20次会议，那我就有了基准数字。对吧？第二部分则是会议到成交的转化率。

So, basically, it is I mean, I think one of the things about entrepreneurs is that you need to have resilience. Like, for me, what the data I was looking for is that if I send 5,000 letters, okay, which takes twenty five weeks, six months, how many meetings does that end up in? If that ends up with 10 meetings or 20 meetings, well, now I have my number. Right? And then the second part is the meeting to close ratio.

对吧？作为一个数学爱好者，我只关心这个数字是否非零。只要确认不是零就行。是的。

Right? And so to me as a math guy, I I was just interested to know that it's nonzero. Okay. I just wanna make sure. Yeah.

没错。很快就能看出效果非零。实际上，头两三个月内就能明显看出成效。

Yeah. Yeah. Could see very quickly it was nonzero. Literally, within the first two, three months, I could see it's nonzero.

每家企业都需要竞争优势。如果你擅长招聘，那么这个优势很可能就是你的团队——不仅是全职员工，还包括自由职业支持。如果你觉得现有人才不够出色，不妨看看我们的赞助商Fiverr Pro。这是Fiverr的高端服务，每位自由职业者都经过严格筛选，确保每次合作都是顶级质量。

Every business needs a competitive edge. And if you're great at hiring, that edge should probably be your people. The a players you bring in, and I don't just mean your full time team, but your freelance support too. If you feel like your talent isn't quite cutting it, then I want you to take another look at our sponsor, Fiverr Pro. Fiverr Pro is Fiverr's premium offering, where every freelancer is hand vetted, so you're guaranteed top quality every single time.

Fiverr Pro的卓越之处在于，你能从市场营销、网站开发、APP开发、人工智能等750多个领域挑选经验丰富的精英。这些人才可以接手你的团队暂时无法处理的复杂项目。由于是定制化服务，Fiverr Pro的招聘专家会为你物色所需人才，并全程管理外包项目。如果对工作成果不满意，还可获得全额退款。

What's brilliant about Fiverr Pro is that you're picking from a very experienced talent in marketing, web, app development, AI, and 750 other categories. And these are people that can swoop in and lead the more complex projects that your team might not be capable of handling yet. And because it's a personalized service, a Fiverr pro hiring expert will find the help your business needs for you. They'll hire them and manage your outsourced projects end to end too. And if you're not happy with your freelancers work, then you get your money back.

他们对人才就是如此自信。立即访问fiverr.com/diary，首单使用优惠码diary可享9折。我认为16到19岁从事电话推销的经历——就像我当年晚上9点打陌生电话推销门窗那样——是最能塑造孩子性格的体验之一。这段经历让我深刻领悟到你所说的道理：没错，80%的人会直接让你滚开。

They are that confident in their talent. So to give it a shot, head to fiverr dot com slash diary, and for 10% off your first order, use code diary. I think one of the the most formative experiences you can give your children, which I got at 16, through through 16 to 19 years old, which is what I did, was working in cold telesales. So my job at 16 years old was to call people at 9PM, cold, and try and get them to buy windows and doors. And it taught me the exact lesson you're describing, which is, yes, 80% of people tell fuck off.

98%的人都这么说，但这不重要。

98% say that, but doesn't matter.

我常说，大约8080%的人叫我滚开。15%的人用比较委婉的方式表达，还有5%至少愿意听我说的话。对，可能1%的人最终会被说服。但当你明白这一点，你就会透过这个视角看待生活。

I always say, like, 8080% told me to fuck off. 15% said it in a nice way, and then 5% were at least receptive to what I had to say. Yeah. Maybe 1% close. But when you understand that, you think of life through that lens.

实际上，史蒂文，我也有几乎相同的经历。我父亲是个企业家，他非常擅长发现我所谓的‘供给缺口’——那些世界上本应存在却尚未出现的事物。他能在没有资金的情况下让这些企业起步，我多次目睹他做到这一点。

And actually, Steven, I had the almost same experience. So my father was an entrepreneur. He was really smart at identifying what I call offering gaps, like things that should exist in the world but didn't. And he would get these businesses off the ground with no money. I saw him do it repeatedly.

他的失败之处在于过分激进地扩张业务，导致企业缺乏持久力。几乎没有股权积累，总是高杠杆运营。所以他破产了八九次，反复如此。在我大约11、12岁时，我哥哥和我就像他的董事会成员。

His downfall was he was very aggressive in growing the businesses. And so they didn't have staying power. There was almost no equity, always very levered. So he went bankrupt eight or nine times, right, repeatedly. When when I I was was about 11 or 12 years old, my brother and I, we were like his board of directors.

明白吗？因为他别无依靠。我们三人每晚都要坐下来想办法让生意再多撑一天。所有事情都在崩塌边缘。

Okay? Because he had nobody else. The three of us would sit down at night to figure out how to make the business last for one more day. Okay. Everything's caving in.

债主们步步紧逼，企业摇摇欲坠。我们如何让它再运转一天？然后第二天晚上，我们又聚在一起，思考如何让它再多撑一天？

The creditors are craving in. The business is collapsing. How do we make it work for one more day? And then the next night, we'd get together. And how do we get it work for one more day again?

对吧？16岁那年——至今不明白父亲为何这么做，但我非常感激——那时他在迪拜有家黄金珠宝加工厂。他亲自去珠宝店推销自家产品，经常带着我一起出差。

Right? At 16, and I don't know why my dad did this, but I'm so grateful that he did. He was at that time, he had a gold jewelry factory in Dubai. And he was going cold calling in person to jewelry shops to buy his jewelry that he was manufacturing. So he took me with him on many of these trips.

那时我也才16岁，和你一样。对吧？我们经常从迪拜打车去阿布扎比。现在那里到处都是金店，但他一家都不认识。

And I was 16, just like you. Right? So we would take the taxi from Dubai to Abu Dhabi. And now there's all these gold shops. He doesn't know any of them.

对吧？他就一家接一家地拜访。让我震惊的是，到第五家店时他居然成交了。虽然金额很小，因为他还没建立信任什么的，但毕竟开单了。

Right? And he's going one after the other after the other after the other. And I would be stunned that fifth shop, he makes a sale. Yeah. And it's a very small sale because he has no trust and all that, but he's made the sale.

三个月后我注意到，当我们再回访那家成交过小单的店铺时，店主端出了茶。他们之间产生了化学反应，订单变大了。后来我看到订单量持续增长。明白吗？

Then I noticed that after three months, we go back to that same shop we made the little sale to. The guy brings out tea. He there's a there's a lot of chemistry, bigger order. And then I saw the orders increase. Right?

他继续用这种方式拓展业务。我曾跟他去过卡塔尔的多哈，同样的故事重演。我亲眼目睹那些门是如何被敲开的，也看到当门关上时他毫不在意的样子。

And then he's continuing to do that. I I went with him to Doha, Qatar Qatar. And, again, the same thing. It was like, you know, I saw how those doors opened. And I saw how it didn't matter to him when they closed.

对他来说那根本无所谓。

That was irrelevant to him. You

知道吗？这种思考角度真的很新颖，因为你其实是在说，当你得到一个肯定答复时，那就像播下了一颗可能成长的种子。

know? Really interesting new way to think about it because what you're saying there is actually when you get that one yes, it's actually a seed that's being planted that can grow into something.

我们只关注比例和数量。听着，关键是要付出多少努力？就像我说的，如果我寄5000封信能换来20次会面，那就太棒了。这个比例很惊人，因为一单生意就能带来20万或30万收入。

We just care about the ratio and the number. Okay. So what effort did it take? Like I was saying, if I send 5,000 letters and I get 20 meetings, that's awesome. I mean, that's a fantastic ratio because one sale is going to get me about 200,000 or 300,000.

这是个不小的数目，对吧？我是说，这样我就不需要大数字了。而且

It's a significant amount, right? I mean, so that I don't need large numbers. And

但那的终身价值

But the lifetime value of that

可能非常巨大。是的，是的。我是说，这些我建立的关系，它们至今仍伴随着我。嗯。

could It's huge. Yeah. Yeah. I mean I mean, these these relationships I got then, they're still with me. Mhmm.

你明白吗？所以它是，它是，就像是永恒的。

You know? So it's it's it's like forever.

这里有个哲学角度供大家思考：你可能记得生活中一些当时觉得完全无关紧要的对话，但八年后，那颗种子却发展成了商业关系。我常举的例子是，14岁时我申请了《学徒》节目。BBC当时做了个青少年版《学徒》。长话短说，

Here's a philosophical way to think about that for just everybody, which is you can remember probably conversations you had in your life that you thought were totally inconsequential. But then eight years later, that seed became a business relationship. Example I always give is when I was 14, I applied for The Apprentice. They did this, like, junior apprentice on the BBC. And it's a long story.

全伦敦乃至英国有35,000名孩子申请。排队试镜时我遇到一个孩子，他对我说：‘哦，我爸经营着一家5亿美元的公司。’我当时心想，随便吧，没当回事。我参加了试镜，

35,000 kids in London and across The UK applying. I met a kid in the line while I was queuing up for my audition, And he said to me, oh, my dad runs this $500,000,000 company. And I was like, yeah, whatever. Like, not interested. I went through the auditions.

最终因种种原因没能入选节目。但因为在排队那天的等待，我对那孩子特别友好，还加了他脸书。五年后，我收到他的消息：‘嘿。’

I didn't and didn't didn't end getting on in the show for whatever reason. But then I ended up because we were waiting in the queue that day. I was really nice to this kid, and I added him on Facebook. Five years later, I get a message on Facebook. Hey.

五年后，虽然我没能登上那个节目——如果获胜本可以为我的公司赢得约25,000美元投资——但五年后，我正在创业。当年排队认识的那个孩子突然联系我说：'嘿，我爸刚以十亿美元卖掉了他的公司，过去五年我一直在Facebook关注你，我爸很想见见你。'那是印度阿瓦瓦利家族。

Five years later, although I didn't get on the show, which would have got me about $25,000 investment in my company if I'd won, Five years later, I'm working on a start up. That kid from the line says, hey. My dad has sold his business for a billion dollars, and I've been watching you on Facebook for the last five years. My dad would love to meet you. It was an Indian family, the Alawwalis.

他们出售了名为'欧洲汽车零件'的企业。在我穷到要靠偷窃超市食品充饥时，他们带我去了伦敦。他父亲给我的商业投资金额，是当年节目奖金的两倍。这段经历始终提醒着我：每次对话都像播下种子，在我人生的任何阶段...

They had sold a business called Euro Car Parts. They took me to London when I was literally so broke. Was, like, shoplifting food to feed myself. And his dad invested double what I would have won on the show into my business. And I and that always reminded me that, like, every conversation that I have is like planting a seed, that at any point in my life Sure.

都可能生根发芽。就像那个

Could turn into something. Like the

我经常提到亚当·格兰特的《给予与索取》这本书。不知道你是否读过？地球上所有人都属于三种类型之一：给予者、索取者或匹配者。明白吗？

I mean, you know, I always bring up Adam Grant's book Givers and Takers. I don't know if you've seen that. All humans on the planet fall into one of three categories. They are either a giver or a taker or a matcher. Okay?

人类只有这三种分类。匹配者比较容易理解，他们的思维框架是：如果史蒂文帮了我，我会尝试回报类似的帮助，就像一对一交换。

These are there are no other categories of humans. There's just these are the three categories. Now, the matchers are relatively simple to understand. Their mental framework is, if Steven does me a favor, I'm going to try to do something similar for him. You know, one to one.

他们能在大脑里精确计算得失。而那些你永远不该接触的索取者，总想欺诈利用他人，只拿不给。这种人最终一事无成，懂吗？

They can do matching in the math in their heads. The takers who you don't have anything to ever do with are trying to scam and screw everyone and always take and never give. Okay? The takers basically go nowhere. Okay?

如果生活中有索取者，立刻远离他们。而给予者的行为逻辑是：他们不追求回报，只想帮助你，想为人类做贡献。

And if you have any takers in your life, get rid of them. Okay? Now the givers, what the givers do is the givers are not focused on what comes back to them. They just want to help you. They want to help humanity.

最终发生的是，宇宙会合力帮助他们。因此，给予者往往成为最成功的人。尽管他们并未索取，但每个人都试图给予他们。这基本上就是亚当·格兰特在《给予与索取》一书中阐述的观点，这是一个极佳的心智模型——成为给予者。别玩数学游戏。

And what ends up happening is the universe conspires to help them. So the givers become the most successful. Everyone is trying to give to them even though they're not asking for it. So basically, when we and that's the book that Adam Grant wrote, Givers and Takers, is one of the mental models, which this is a great mental model to have, is to be a giver. Don't play math games.

始终确保对方在交易中获得更多好处。一生都坚持这样做，这种善意会不断累积，最终自然会有回报。

Always try to make sure the other guy gets the better end of the deal. And just keep going through your life that way. And that goodwill will compound, and it will take care of itself.

还有时间跨度的问题。你不需要担心时间跨度。

And the time horizon. You don't worry about the time horizon.

你不是为了得到回报才这样做。这才是关键。你不做任何数学计算。比如，你不会算计着'我这样做是为了让XYZ发生'。

You're not doing it for getting something back. That's the key. You're not doing any mathematics. Like, I'm gonna do you're not calculating. I'm gonna do this so x y z happens.

你只是去做。故事结束。

You're just doing it. End of story.

昨晚我和女朋友聊天。她经营一家呼吸疗法工作室，本质上是个体经营者。现在她正处在想要扩大规模的阶段。实际上，我遇到很多——我记得之前做过调查——绝大多数企业主都属于中小型企业类别，那种小型微型企业范畴。

I was sat with my girlfriend last night. She runs a breathwork business, so she's essentially a solo printer. And she's at that point where she's trying to scale. In fact, I just meet so many I think I actually ran a survey before. And the vast majority of business owners are in that SME category, that small small sort of business category.

这些初创企业是我们经济的支柱。但他们向我提出的问题都一样：也许最初是个人创业，现在需求很高，我却成了瓶颈。我不知道如何摆脱自由职业者的状态。自由职业者如何转型为机构？

It's the back start ups the backbone of our economy. But they they come to me with the same problem, which is maybe I started as an individual. I've got high demand, and now I'm a bottleneck. And I don't know how to get out of being like a freelancer. How does the freelancer become an agency?

昨晚我和女友聊到的是，她尚未采取的关键步骤就是聘用一位杰出人才。很多初创公司的创始人来找我时，他们总是说：'客户喜欢我亲自服务，我做得更好，我不信任别人'。我在想你是否有一套心理模型

And the the thing I was chatting to my girlfriend about last night was, the steps she hasn't taken yet is to hire someone exceptional. And so many founders come to me, these early stage founders, they're like, like, I my customers like me. I do it better. I don't trust anybody. I I wondered if you had, like, a mental model

关键在于，看看埃隆·马斯克和史蒂夫·乔布斯这样的人，他们认为自己的首要任务就是招聘。SpaceX前3000名员工都是埃隆亲自面试的。想想看，3000个录用决定背后是多少场面试

thinking The about thing is, so if you look at people like Elon Musk and Steve Jobs, they believe their number one job is recruiting. The first 3,000 people who joined SpaceX, all personally interviewed by Elon. Just think about that. Those are 3,000 hires. Think about the number of interviews to get the 3,000 hires.

明白吗？他坚信这是唯一正确的方式。史蒂夫·乔布斯常说：A级人才只想与A级人才共事。一旦开始引入B级人才，他们就会雇佣B级和C级人才，永远不可能招到A级人才

Okay? He did not believe there was any other way. And what Steve Jobs used to say is that a players want to work with a players. The moment you start introducing b players, b players will hire b and c players. They will never hire an a player.

所以当你雇佣第一个B级人才时，企业下坡路就已经开始了。作为创业者，我们时间都很紧张，但招聘必须放在首位，你必须愿意在招聘上投入不成比例的大量时间

So your downhill journey's already started the moment you get a b player. And so as an entrepreneur, we have a lot of demands on our time. Right? But recruiting has to be at the top. And you've got to be willing to spend inordinate amounts of time on recruiting.

当然，现在有些工具可以使用。我们采用Caliper公司的人才测评系统。关键在于，一个人的基因和五岁前的成长经历已经决定了他们的核心特质，这些从五岁到九十五岁都不会改变

Okay? And there's you know, there are tools that you can use. We use there's a company called Caliper we use for preemployment testing. And the thing is that between the genetics of a human and the first five years of their life experience, who they are, their traits are hard coded. That is not gonna change from five to 95.

明白吗？你不可能改变一个人的本质。这些入职前测评能提供面试中无法获取的关键数据

Okay? So it's not like you're gonna change a human. Human is the way they are. Okay? Now these preemployment testing tests can get you data that you're not gonna get in an interview.

我正在筹建的一家公司叫culturetest.com，做的就是这件事

One of my companies I'm building at the moment is called culturetest.com. It's exactly this.

好的。

Okay.

我是说，你这是在对着已经皈依的信众布道。

I mean, you're just like preaching to the choir here.

但我想说的是

But what I'm saying is that

这是最迫切的需求

It was the most need

要真正精通招聘之道。

to get really good at recruiting.

没错。这绝对、绝对是我的执念。有趣的是，我在做这些文化测试时发现——目前我已经对普通大众进行了数万人的文化测试——最令人震惊的部分，简单来说，它能为我们表现最优异的员工建立决策基准。

Yeah. It's it's my absolute, absolute obsession. And what I found out is that, funnily enough, I'm doing these culture tests. So I've kind of culture tested tens of thousands of people in the general population now. And the shocking part was just to give you some context on what it does, it benchmarks our best performing people and how they make their decisions.

这里的前提是：文化不是你在团建时凭空想出来的东西。文化是圣诞夜收到客户短信时你的反应。那一刻的应对就是你的企业文化。这个测试通过模拟团队理想文化的情境提问，将你置于场景中询问‘你会怎么做？’。现在或许该向各位介绍culturetest.com——我们即将推出的网站，面向所有需要招聘的人（可能包括每位听众）。

The assumption here is that culture isn't the thing you come up with at the off-site. Culture is how you'd behave on Christmas Eve when you get a text message from a client. Like, what you do there is your company culture. So it basically creates these questions which simulate optimal culture in that team, and it puts you in that scenario and says, what do you do? This is probably a good point to talk to you guys about culturetest.com, which is the website we're about to launch for anyone who has the responsibility of hiring someone, which is probably everybody listening.

一次糟糕的招聘可能毁掉你的整个公司，所以我们创建了culturetest.com，让你们在家就能识别那些危险信号，避免那些可能终结你企业的招聘。文化测试将为你定制专属的文化测试，让你可以筛查每一个想加入团队的人、现有团队成员以及离职人员，看他们是否契合。只需访问culturetest.com并输入你的邮箱地址。一旦我们上线，我会立即发邮件让你抢先体验。

One bad hire can destroy your entire company, so we made culturetest.com so that you guys at home can spot those red flags and avoid those hires that might be the end of your business. Culture Test will make you your own personalized culture test so that you can screen every single person that wants to be in your team and your current team members and people that have left to see how they align. Just go to culturetest.com and put your email address in. And the minute we launch, I'm gonna send you an email so you can try it before anybody else.

招聘确实至关重要。我认为另一点是我们愿意聘用那些可能在某些方面不如我们的人。但实际上，我也发现团队中有很多人比我更优秀。要知道，他们在许多方面更出色，因为这些工作本就不是我的专长。嗯。

So recruiting is really important. And I think the other thing is we're willing to hire people who may not do things as well as we do. But actually, also, what I've also found is I have so many people on my team who are better than me. You know, they're better at many of these things because it's not my natural bent to do those jobs. Mhmm.

所以真正获得巨大回报的时刻，就是当你拥有远超自己水平的团队成员时。

So that's really when you get a huge bang for the buck is you end up with team players that are way better than you.

你如何看待解雇员工的问题？因为这是另一个——

How do you think about firing people? Because this is the other

我从慢招原则中领悟到：快刀斩乱麻。

Hire thing I hear from slow. Fire fast.

创始人们往往在'快速解雇'这点上举步维艰。

Founders really struggle with the fire fast thing.

快速解雇极其重要。我认为它比慢招更重要。这其实是在帮助那个人，因为他们可能在另一个岗位、另一个地方会非常出色。所以你是在帮他们寻找更适合的位置，同时也在帮助团队其他成员。

And it is very important to fire fast. I think fire fast is more important than hire slow. And you're doing the person a service because they may be exceptional in another role, at another place. So you are helping them try to find that. And you're helping your other team members.

如果我想为贵公司工作，什么是不可妥协的一点？我会表现出什么特质让你们立刻不考虑录用我？

If I was trying to work for your companies, what is the one non negotiable? What is the trait that I would demonstrate where you would immediately not even consider me?

最重要的是诚信。我们看重三个特质：智慧、诚信和勤奋。这三者都不可妥协。

The most important is integrity. I mean, we want three traits. We want intelligence, we want integrity, and we want willingness to work hard. Right? And none of these three are really negotiable.

在你们定义中，诚信具体指什么？

And what does integrity mean in your definition?

绝对的诚实很简单，是非分明。以最高道德标准要求自己，无论对待客户、内部还是外部事务，道德标准都必须极高。

Well, absolute honesty is pretty simple. You know, it's black and white. And you Conduct yourself with the highest levels of ethical standards. So on all fronts, when you're dealing with a customer or internally or externally, it's the moral standards need to be very high.

关于你的财富，有多少来自创业所得，多少来自将创业所得资本进行卓越投资？

When you think about your wealth, how much of it has come from building businesses versus being a great investor of the capital that you manage to make from those businesses?

目前大部分收益来自投资。

I think currently most has come from the investing side.

你以数十年来卓越的投资能力闻名。我会在屏幕上放一张图表，显示你的投资策略回报率与道琼斯指数的对比。你之前见过这张图吗？

You're very well known for being a really excellent investor over many, many, many, many, many years. I'll put a graph on the screen that I found, which I think shows the returns of your investment strategy versus the the Dow Jones, this graph? Have you seen that one before?

我从未这样想过，但人们确实会提出各种观点。是的。

I haven't seen it this way, but people put up all kinds of things. Yeah.

我的意思是，这一切只说明你非常擅长投资。所以我想知道，如果我刚开始投资生涯，目前在做一份朝九晚五的工作，银行账户里有几千美元。我应该如何考虑投资？我应该投资吗？

I mean, all this says is that you're extremely good at investing. So I wanna know, if I if I'm in starting my investing career I'm working in a nine to five job at the moment. I've got a couple of thousand dollars in my my bank account. How should I be thinking about investing? Should I be investing?

所以

So

要想在投资上取得好结果，有三件事至关重要。初始资本——你起步时有多少钱；投资期限——你打算投资多长时间；以及回报率。明白吗？

there are are three things that matter in terms of getting a great outcome with investing. Starting capital. How much the amount you start with? Length of the runway, how long are you going to invest the money, and the rate of return. Okay.

在回答你的问题之前，我想讲个故事。这是个真实的故事。1623年，在纽约，拥有曼哈顿岛的美国原住民印第安人，荷兰殖民者想买下这座岛。于是他们找到印第安人说，我们想买下曼哈顿岛。那里有天然良港。

So before I answer your question, I want to tell you a story. So and this is a true story. In 1623 in New York, the native American Indians in New York who owned the Island Of Manhattan, The Dutch settlers wanted to buy the island. And so they went to the Indians and said, we'd like to buy the Island Of Manhattan. Great natural harbors.

对我们来说是个好地方。印第安人和荷兰人达成协议，以23美元的价格出售曼哈顿岛。人们听到这个会说，哦，印第安人被骗了。我不知道，用23美元买曼哈顿太荒谬了。但假设印第安人有个信托经理，他们说，把这23美元投资起来为部落谋利，尽量做得像样点。对吧？

It can be a great place for us. And the Indians and the Dutch reached an agreement to sell the Island Of Manhattan for $23 And when people hear that, they think, oh, the Indians got taken. Know, I don't know, Manhattan for $23 is ridiculous. But let's say the Indians had a trust officer who they said, invest this $23 for the benefit of the tribe and try to do a decent job. Right?

现在有个叫72法则的东西。72法则非常重要，我希望中学能比小学更早教这个，它告诉我们资金翻倍需要多久。这是一种数学技巧。比如，如果我能获得7%的回报，用72除以7，大约是10。以7%的回报率，资金需要十年才能翻倍。

Now, there's something known as the rule of 72. And the rule of 72 is a a very important rule, and I wish they would teach it more in high school than elementary school, it tells us how long it takes money to double. And it's a kind of a mathematical hack. So for example, if I'm going to get a 7% return and I do 72 divided by seven, that's approximately 10. And at the 7% return, it's gonna take ten years for the money to double.

7%的复利需要十年翻倍。如果获得10%的回报率，则需要七年——72除以10约等于七。若回报率为15%，则需五年——72除以15约等于五。

7% compounded will take ten years. If I have a 10% return, it will take seven years. 72 divided by 10 is seven. If I have a 15% return, it will take five years. 72 divided by 15 is five, approximately.

若回报率达到20%，仅需三年半即可翻倍。这个72法则非常实用。了解资金翻倍所需时间至关重要，这样我们就能快速心算。比如这些印度人初始资金23美元，若获得77%回报率，十年后将变成46美元，二十年后达到92美元。

And if I have a 20% return, it'll take three and a half years. So this rule of 72 is a nice hack. And it's very important to know how long money takes to double because then we can start doing a lot of math in our heads. So when we look at these Indians with the 23, if they were getting a 77% return, it would become $46 in ten years. And then it would become $92 in twenty years.

三十年后将增长至184美元，以此类推。若以百年计，即十个十年周期。十个周期就是2的十次方，计算结果为1024倍。

And $184 in thirty years. So on. Now if you go a hundred years, right, it's 10 periods of 10. And 10 periods of 10 is two to the power of 10. And two to the power of 10 is ten twenty four.

为简化计算我们忽略尾数24。因此以7%复利计算，百年后初始资金将增值千倍。这正是复利非线性增长的威力，但人们往往难以直观理解。

So we throw away the 24 because we don't wanna complicate the math. So at 7% for a hundred years, you would have a thousand times what we started with. And this is why because compounding becomes nonlinear. People have a hard time getting their hands around it.

非线性具体指什么？

So Nonlinear meaning?

增长不是直线上升，而是呈现...

It's not going up in a straight curve. It's going up in a

曲棍球杆式增长。

Hockey stick.

曲棍球棒俱乐部。没错。所以在1723年，印第安人会有23,000。这会增加一千。然后如果他们继续以7%的速度增长，到1823年，他们将拥有23,000,000。

Hockey stick club. Yeah. So in 1723, the Indians would have 23,000. It would have gone up a thousand. And then if they continue at the 7%, in 1823, they would have 23,000,000.

到了1923年，他们将拥有23,000,000,000。而到了2023年，他们将拥有23,000,000,000,000。明白吗？现在美国每个男人、女人和孩子的总财富是150,000,000,000,000美元。其中的六分之一并不是曼哈顿未开发的土地。

And in 1923, they would have 23,000,000,000. And in 2023, they'd have 23,000,000,000,000. Okay? Now the entire wealth of every man, woman, and child in The United States is $150,000,000,000,000. One sixth of that is not undeveloped land in Manhattan.

所以如果印第安人在过去四百年里每年以7%的利率投资，他们会比拥有这块土地更有钱。所以他们并没有被欺骗。他们得到了一个公平的交易。但他们只是没有一个好的信托管理人，能够真正为他们实现这一点。所以复利的魔力在于，我们从23美元开始，最终得到了23,000,000,000,000，而不需要很高的回报率。

So if the Indians had invested at 7% a year for the last four hundred years, they would have more money than owning the land. So they were not taken. They were given a fair deal. But they just didn't have a good trust officer who could actually make it happen for them. So the magic of compounding is that we started with $23 and we end up with 23,000,000,000,000 without having a great rate of return.

仅仅7%的回报率只是还行。不算很好。也不算差，但还行。现在如果你回到一百年前，我们从1623年开始。再往前一百年到1523年。

It's just an okay 7% is just okay. It's not great. It's not bad, but it's okay. Now if you go back a hundred years so we started at 1623. Go back a hundred years to 1523.

我们在1623年有2300美分。2300美分？23美元就是2300美分。

We had 2300¢ in 1623. 2300¢? $23 is 2300¢.

哦，好吧。如果他们得到了它

Oh, okay. If if they'd got it

只需将其转换为美分而不是美元。对吧？现在如果你把它变成千分之一

Just convert it to cents instead of dollars. Right? Now if you make it one thousandth of that

为了确认我的理解正确，你是说如果从那个时间点回溯一百年，你只需给他们23美分

So just so I'm clear here, so if you're saying if you went back a hundred years from that point and you gave them just 23¢

如果你给他们2美分。

If you gave them 2¢.

如果你给他们2美分。

If you gave them 2¢.

准确说是2.3美分。两点几美分。给他们2美分。一百年后就会变成20美元。如果给2.3美分，百年后将变成23美元，而现在这个数字会是23,000,000,000,000美元。

2.3¢ to be exact. 2 point cents. Gave them 2¢ Yeah. A hundred years later, there will be $20. If you gave them 2.3¢, a hundred years later, they'd be $23 and now it would be the 23,000,000,000,000.

对吧？我想说的是，只要时间跨度足够长，初始资本根本不重要。甚至回报率也不重要，只要周期够长。人们在考虑投资时，必须记住几点：首先是量入为出。

Right? So what I'm trying to say is that if the runway is long enough, the starting capital doesn't matter. Even the rate of return doesn't matter if the runway is long enough. Now so when people are thinking about investing, they have to keep a few things in mind. The first thing is spend less than you earn.

所以永远优先储蓄第一块钱，而不是最后一块钱。如果你年收入5万美元，先存下5千美元，再安排其他开支。这个例子告诉我们，年轻时就要开始——22或23岁刚工作时就必须储蓄，因为22岁存下的钱可以复利五十年。这才是关键。

So always try to save the first dollar rather than the last dollar. So if you are making $50,000 a year, put $5,000 to savings to start with and then do the rest of your expenses after that. Now it's very important when we saw with this example, you start young. So when people start working at 22 or 23, whenever they start working, they have to be saving then because that early money at 22 can compound for fifty years. And that's what we want.

我们不需要费尽心思寻找下一个英伟达之类的奇迹。只需投入指数基金，重要的是量入为出，每年持续存入那5千、7千或1万美元。别拿这笔钱去夏威夷度假，让它持续复利增长。

So we don't need to do heroic things with finding the next Nvidia or whatever else. We can just put it into an index. And the important thing is spend less than you earn and keep putting that $5.07, 10,000 every year into the savings. Don't go have a vacation in Hawaii with it. Let it keep compounding.

直接把它放进一个宽基指数里就行，我们其实并不在意具体是哪些。

And just put it into a broad index, and we don't really care.

那么对于从未投资过的人来说——是的，可能观众里大部分都是新手——我们怎么进一步简化'直接放进指数'这个概念？这具体是什么意思？

So for someone who has never invested before Yeah. Which would probably be the majority of the audience, how do we simplify even further in terms of just put it in an index? What does that mean?

简单来说，你可以在富达、盈透证券或Robinhood等平台开户，用很少的钱就能开通一个证券账户。

So basically, you could open an account at Fidelity or Interactive Brokers or Robinhood, any of these places. You could open a brokerage account for very little money.

而且每个国家都有很多这样的平台。

And there's lots of them in every country.

没错。然后你只需让他们帮你买入标普500指数，他们就会帮你完成投资配置。

Yeah. And then you could just ask them to give to buy you the S and P 500 index, for example, and they will get you invested in that.

标普500基本上就是前500强公司对吧？

And the S and P 500 is basically the top 500 companies?

是的。就是美国500家龙头企业，比如英伟达、微软、苹果这些都在里面。

It's the yeah. The 500 dominant businesses in The US. Like Nvidia is in there and Microsoft and Apple and so on.

如果过去一个世纪的趋势持续下去，你每年将获得10%的收益。

And you're gonna get your 10% a year if the trend holds over the last century.

标普500指数曾多次经历停滞期，目前估值有些偏高。但如果你有足够长的投资周期并采用定投策略，这完全没问题。另一个选择是购买伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股票，代码BRKB。

The S and P has plenty of periods where it does nothing. It's somewhat overheated right now. But I think if you have a long enough time horizon, your dollar cost averaging in, it's perfectly okay. What you could also do as an alternative is buy Berkshire Hathaway. So that's a stock, BRKB.

你可以建议这些人直接投资伯克希尔哈撒韦，它就像指数基金一样。同样是设定后就不用管了，无需操心投资事宜，专心做你的黄色事业就好。

So you could again tell these people that just put it into Berkshire Hathaway. It's like an index. And and again, it's like set it and forget it. You don't need to think about the investing side. You focus on yellow.

明白吗？持续进行小额储蓄，复利效应会显现。比如18岁时存5000美元，到68岁就是50年后。假设这笔钱每年获得10%的回报...

Okay? And keep putting this little money away on the side and it's gonna compound. And so at 18, if you put away $5,000 and you fast forward to when you're 68, fifty years later, right? Now, if if you got a 10% return on that money.

每年都如此。

Every year.

假设每七年翻一番。72法则计算：72除以10等于7。50年就是7个翻倍周期。

Let's say. Every seven years, it would double. Okay? 72 divided by 10 is seven. Fifty years is seven doubles.

7乘以7是49。2的7次方是128。我们暂且忽略28这个零头，简化计算。

Seven times seven is 49. And two to the power of seven is one twenty eight. Okay? So we can throw away the 28. Keep it simple.

你将获得初始金额的100倍回报。所以18岁时的5000元会变成50万元。19岁时再存一笔，又是50万。20岁可能能存1万元进去。

You're gonna have a 100 times what you started with. So the 5,000 at 18 is gonna be 500,000. Okay. At 19, if you put money away, that's another 500,000. 20, you might have 10,000 you can put in.

这样你就能明白，一生积累下来，你会拥有花不完的钱。

So you can start seeing that over a lifetime, you're going to be having too much money.

你可能已经发现，我对高绩效团队背后的心理学极其着迷。这源于我作为曼联球迷对弗格森爵士的崇拜。所以当听说网飞新剧集讲述达拉斯牛仔队的崛起时，立刻引起了我的兴趣。这并非因为我是美式足球狂热粉——其实我根本不看。

As you might have been able to tell, I'm absolutely fascinated by the psychology behind high performing teams. I think it started with my love for Sir Alex Ferguson as a Manchester United fan. So when I was told about a new Netflix series that covers the rise of the Dallas Cowboys, it immediately piqued my interest. And this isn't because I'm mad about American football. I'm not.

但我确实知道达拉斯牛仔队。对许多德州人而言，他们远不止是支球队。这部纪录片精彩绝伦，聚焦石油商人杰里·琼斯——这位毫无足球背景的富豪在八十年代末买下牛仔队，将其打造成全球最具价值的体育品牌。

I don't even watch it. But I do know about the Dallas Cowboys. And for a lot of Texans, they're much more than a sports team. I watched this series, and it is absolutely brilliant. It centers on Jerry Jones, an oil businessman with no football background, who bought the Cowboys in the late eighties and transformed them into the most valuable sports franchise in the world.

故事讲述他如何在九十年代组建由传奇球员教练组成的梦之队，通过果敢决策带领球队三夺超级碗冠军。我真心推荐《美国战队：赌徒与他的牛仔们》，现已在网飞独家播出——他们也是本播客的赞助商。

It's all about how one guy assembled a powerhouse team in the nineteen nineties made up of legendary players and coaches, and through fearless decision making, led his team to three Super Bowl victories. And I really enjoyed it. And I think you might too. Check out America's team, the gambler and his cowboys, which is streaming right now only on Netflix. And they now sponsor this podcast.

我刚斥资数百万成为Ketone IQ公司的联合所有人。故事很有趣：我在播客谈论生酮状态（我坚持极低碳水低糖饮食，身体产酮使我思维敏锐、耐力提升、情绪稳定）。几周后，伦敦总部就收到了这些小瓶补剂——天啊！

I've just invested millions into this and become a co owner of the company. It's a company called Ketone IQ, and the story is quite interesting. I started talking about ketosis on this podcast and the fact that I'm very low carb, very, very low sugar, and my body produces ketones, which have made me incredibly focused, have improved my endurance, have improved my mood, and have made me more capable at doing what I do here. And because I was talking about it on the podcast, a couple of weeks later, these showed up on my desk in my HQ in London, these little shots. And oh my god.

它对表达能力、专注力、训练状态、情绪管理和防止日间疲劳的效果惊人，促使我联系创始人成为联合股东。强烈建议你了解产品科学原理。想尝试可访问ketone.com/steven，订阅享7折且次单赠礼。再强调：ketone.com/steven。

The impact this had on my ability to articulate myself, on my focus, on my workouts, on my mood, on stopping me crashing throughout the day was so profound that I reached out to the founders of the company, and now I'm a co owner of this business. I highly, highly recommend you look into this. I highly recommend you look at the science behind the product. If you wanna try it for yourself, visit ketone.com/steven for 30% off your subscription order, and you'll also get a free gift with your second shipment. That's ketone.com/steven.

我深感荣幸，我拥有的公司能再次赞助我的播客。你被称为丹多投资者，我这里有一本你写的书，名为《丹多投资者》。这个词‘丹多’是什么意思？为什么人们称你为丹多投资者？

And I'm so honored that once again, a company I own can sponsor my podcast. You've been referred to as the the Dando investor, and I've I've got a book here which you wrote called The Dando Investor. What what does this word dando mean? And why do they call you the dando investor?

丹多实际上源自印度西海岸的古吉拉特邦，甘地的故乡。那里的人是非常精明的商人。如果直译古吉拉特语，‘丹多’意为生意，但它真正的含义不止于此。它指的是一种无下行风险的商业模式。

Dando is actually a word from Gujarat, which is on the on the Western Coast Of India where Gandhi came from. They're extremely astute business people. And dhando, if you translate it directly in Gujarati, it means business. But it doesn't really mean business. What it means is it's a way of doing business where the downside is nonexistent.

我们已讨论过布兰森先生是丹多投资者——他毫无下行风险。盖茨先生也是，同样没有下行风险。沃尔顿先生亦是丹多投资者。

We already discussed how mister Branson is a dhando investor. He had no downside. Mister Gates was a dhando investor. He had no downside. Mister Walton was a dhando investor.

他们都没有下行风险。这些人投身商业，积累巨额财富却未承担风险。《丹多投资者》就是从如何最小化风险同时保持收益的角度撰写的。

They had no downside. So all of these people embarked on businesses, built huge fortunes without taking risk. And so the Dhando investor was written from the perspective of how can we minimize risk while keeping the returns intact?

你举了帕特尔家族的例子。能讲讲那个故事吗？

You used this example of the Patel's. What is what is that story?