最重播时刻：克里斯·威廉姆森解析为何寻找真爱比以往更难

作为创始人需要一些时间才能意识到这一点，但一旦明白，就无法忽视——企业建立正确的系统至关重要。在我所有投资中，NetSuite都给予了巨大帮助，它是排名第一的云端财务系统，也是今天对话的赞助商。通过其高效平台，您可以在一个地方管理会计、财务、运营、库存和人力资源。这项技术对我的所有公司都产生了革命性影响，尤其对我的FlightStory团队而言——过去一年我们从初创阶段进入扩张阶段，正是在这个关键阶段，我们发现NetSuite不可或缺。

It takes a little bit of time to realize this as a founder, but once you do, it's something you can't unsee. That having the right systems in place with your business is critical. One that's helped me across all of my investments is NetSuite, the number one cloud financial system and sponsor of today's conversation. Through their streamlined platform, you'll find all of your accounting, finance, management, inventory and HR in one place. And their technology has been a massive unlock for all of my companies, especially for my team at FlightStory, as over the last year, we've moved out of startup mode into scale up mode, and that's the stage where we found it mission critical to use NetSuite.

我们不再需要同时操作多个系统，将所有业务整合后，不仅减少了人工操作量，更显著降低了错误率。超过42,000家企业选择NetSuite来保障业务未来。如果您想了解它如何助力您的企业，请访问netsuite.com/bartlett免费下载《CFO人工智能与机器学习指南》。网址重复一遍：netsuite.com/bartlett。

We no longer have to juggle multiple systems, and having everything together has reduced the number of manual tasks and of course the number of errors. Over 42,000 businesses have chosen to future proof their business with NetSuite. So if you'd like to learn how it can help your business, head to netsuite.com/bartlett and free download the CFO's guide to AI and machine learning. That's netsuite.com/bartlett.

事实上，影响健康的最大杠杆——也是最重要的预测因素——是你拥有的亲密关系数量。这比戒烟更重要，比去健身房更重要，甚至比戒酒更重要。50%的男性表示他们不寻求恋爱关系。

One of the biggest levers, in fact, the single biggest predictor of your health outcomes in life are the number of close connections that you have. It it's more than quitting smoking. It's more than going to the gym. It's more than stopping drinking. Fifty percent of men say that they are not looking for a relationship.

当他们说'不寻求'时

When they say aren't looking for

是指'我不想要女人'还是'我不想要承诺'？

a relationship, do they mean I'm not looking for a woman or I'm not looking for commitment?

我并没有主动追求与女性建立任何形式的互动。

I'm not actively pursuing any kind of interaction with women.

哦，我们哪里走错了？又该如何纠正？

Oh, did we go wrong and how do we go right?

好的。历史上首次出现50.1%的女性成为母亲。30岁无子女的女性数量超过了有子女的女性，对吧？几乎整个人类历史中，30岁以下生育的女性都多于30岁以上的，如今这个比例反转了。

Okay. So 50.1% of women for the first time in history are mothers. There are more childless women at 30 than there are women with children. Right? So for almost all of human history, more women had kids under the age of 30 than over, and now it's switched.

摩根士丹利有项研究预测，到2040年，45%的25至45岁女性将保持单身且无子女。如果网络约会本应完美促成恋爱关系，我们为何会得到这些结果？这才是问题所在。

There's a study from Morgan Stanley that says by 2040, forty five percent of twenty five to forty five year old women will be single and childless. If online dating was creating this perfect facilitation for relationships to start, how are we ending up with all of these outcomes? That's the question.

这些结果有什么问题？

What's wrong with the outcomes?

什么意思？为什么人们要在意单身状态？

What do you mean? Why should people care about being single?

你刚才列举的所有数据——嗯，在我看来都是客观中立的。对社会或世界并没有不良影响。人们不生孩子没关系，不发生性关系也没问题。

All the stats you just said Mhmm. I could look at them and say they're just sort of objectively neutral. Like, there's no adverse consequence to society or the world. It's fine that people aren't having kids. It's fine that people aren't aren't having sex.

我这是故意唱反调，但按照你的观点，你描述的所有这些结果究竟会带来什么负面后果呢？

I'm playing devil's advocate here, but, like, what what is the what is the negative consequence of all of those outcomes that you've described in your view?

对某些人而言，没有伴侣的生活是正确的选择——这点我完全认同。但这不适用于大多数人。亲密关系是最重要的影响因素之一，事实上，人生健康结局的最大预测指标就是你拥有的亲密关系数量。

There are people for whom a life without a partner is the right choice. That's absolutely something that I'm prepared to accept. But it's not most people. It's one of the biggest levers. In fact, the single biggest predictor of your health outcomes in life are the number of close connections that you have.

关键在于朋友的数量。这比戒烟更重要，比去健身房更重要，比戒酒更重要。关键在于你拥有的亲密朋友数量。

It's the number of friends. It's more than quitting smoking. It's more than going to the gym. It's more than stopping drinking. It's the number of close friends that you've got.

而恋爱关系就是一个重要的亲密朋友。罗宾·邓巴说过，要进入一段恋爱关系，你必须牺牲两段友谊，因为一个人大约只能维持五段非常亲密的关系。如果你想谈恋爱，就需要舍弃其中两段，因为这需要最低限度的时间投入。所以处于恋爱关系中的人健康状况更好，老年痴呆症发作得更晚。

And a relationship is a big close friend. Robin Dunbar says in order to get into a relationship, you have to sacrifice two friendships because can have around about five very close friends. If you want to get into a relationship, you need to get rid of two of them because there is a minimum time investment. So people that are in relationships have better health outcomes. They have onset of dementia later.

他们在晚年出现健康问题的时间更晚，孤独感更少。这似乎没什么争议。然而，无论是男性还是女性，都在从恋爱关系中退缩，并试图为此找到合理化的解释。比如'霸道女总裁'文化和那种'向前一步'的女性心态，或是男性选择独自前行、'非自愿独身'文化和男性群体的'黑色药丸'理论，都是两性各自应对婚恋市场挑战的方式。

They have alkalemic problems later on in life. They are less lonely. That seems pretty uncontroversial. And yet, both sides of the aisle, both men and women, are retreating from relationships and finding ways that they can justify this. You know, boss bitch culture and sort of the lean in women's mentality or men going their own way and incel culture and the black pill for guys are both ways that each sex is trying to deal with the challenges that are coming out of the mating market.

两性都在说：'我不想再参与这个游戏了。'他们觉得在这个世界里生存如此痛苦艰难，以至于要彻底抛弃这一切，然后事后找出一大堆理由来证明自己本来就不需要恋爱关系。对某些人来说确实如此，但对大多数人来说并非这样。

Both sexes are saying, I don't wanna be a part of this anymore. I'm finding it so painful and difficult to be in this world that I'm just gonna cast off any of it altogether and then retroactively come up with a lot of explanations that can justify why they didn't need to be in a relationship in any case. And for some people, that's true. But for most people, that's not.

显然，约会软件并不是——就像你之前用自己的话说的——唯一的诱因。所以我的问题是：我们到底哪里走错了？又该如何纠正？

Dating apps are clearly not, you know, and as you said in your own words and previously, aren't the only causal factor. So my question to you is, where did we go wrong, and how do we go right?

好的。我认为婚恋市场的挑战来自多方面。对听众来说最相关的一个主要因素是女性在教育就业方面成就的提升。大约五十年前《教育法第九修正案》出台时，大学里的男女比例出现了13个百分点的逆转，当时男性数量明显多于女性。

Okay. So I think challenges in the mating market are coming from many directions. One of the main ones that will be pertinent to the people that are listening is the increase in female achievement in education and employment. Now, about fifty years ago when Title IX came in, there was a 13 percentage point swing in favor of men to women in universities. There were significantly more men than women.

什么是《教育法第九修正案》？

What's Title IX?

这是一项平权行动政策，旨在帮助更多女性接受高等教育。五十年后的2023年，大学中男女比例出现了15个百分点的逆转。到2030年左右，美国四年制本科学位获得者中女性数量将是男性的两倍。21至29岁女性平均收入比同龄男性高出1,111英镑。女性表示重视伴侣经济前景的可能性大约是男性的两倍。

It was, an affirmative action, policy that helped to get more, women into higher education. Fifty years later, 2023, it's a 15 percentage point swing between men and women in university in the other direction. There are two women for every one man at a four year US college degree roundabout by 2030. Women on average between the ages of 21 and 29 earn £1,111 more than their male counterparts. Women are roughly twice as likely as men to say that they will value financial prospects in a partner.

约78%的女性认为伴侣拥有稳定工作很重要，而仅有约45%的男性持相同观点。男性若要在10分制评分中提升2分，其收入需增长约十倍。女性要实现同样的2分提升，收入则需要增长一万倍。我的观点是：女性对伴侣社会经济地位的重视程度远高于男性。现在你就能理解，当女性高等教育普及率高涨、就业成就突出（至少在21-29岁这个主要择偶年龄段），而女性又将伴侣社会经济地位作为重要吸引力指标时，这种失衡就会引发问题。

Around about 78% of women say that a stable job is something that is important for a partner to have, whereas around about only sort of 45% of men say the same thing. For a man to increase his, rating on a 10 scale by two points, he requires around about a tenfold, increase in his salary. For a woman to achieve the same two point improvement on a 10 scale, her salary would need to increase by 10,000 times. My point being that women are concerned about a partner's socioeconomic status significantly more than men are. Now you can start to see that if you have a world in which women are attending university at high rates, they are achieving, more success in employment, at least in that sort of 21 to 29 range, which is when most people are perhaps looking for potential partners, and yet the socioeconomic status of a partner to a woman is a big determinant of their level of attraction, you can start to see how this imbalance could cause a problem.

教育领域同样如此。Tinder上拥有硕士学位的男性比本科学历者多获得90%的右滑。所以考虑读研的男士们，即便觉得学位无用，至少承认这个事实——余生能多90%匹配机会，或者直接谎报学历。所有这些现象共同构成了所谓的'上迁婚'现象，即女性倾向于选择同等或更高阶层的伴侣。

Similarly, when we talk about education. A man with a master's degree on Tinder gets 90% more rights swipes than a man with a bachelor's degree. So for all of the guys that are considering going and getting a master's degree, even if you think it's gonna be useless, at least accept the fact that you get 90% more rights swipes for the rest of your life, or just lie about your masters. I don't know. All of this rolled together describes something called hypergamy, which is the female tendency to date up and across.

通常女性希望伴侣教育程度和职业地位不低于自己。在这个女性终于实现教育就业平等、获得独立地位、不再经济依附的时代，这固然是进步。但也给婚恋市场带来挑战，这就是我所说的'高个女孩困境'。想象一个穿平底鞋就一米八的女性朋友，若想穿高跟鞋，择偶范围就只剩职业运动员了——因为女性普遍希望伴侣至少与自己同高或略高。

On average, women want to date a man who is as educated or as employed as they are. Now in a world in which, quite rightly, women have finally been able to achieve parity in education and employment and status and have independence and not be financially reliant on their partner, all the rest of it, that's great for them. But it it does cause some challenges for their dating, and this is what I've called the tall girl problem. So everybody knows what it's like to have a girl friend who is six foot without heels. You go, if you wanna wear heels, you're looking at professional athletes because on average, women want to date a man who is at least as tall or a little bit taller than they are.

随着女性在教育职场中凭借实力攀升，符合'同等或更高学历职业'条件的适婚男性池就进一步缩小。这是赤裸裸的供需失衡。其结果是：处于底层的庞大男性群体对女性而言几乎隐形。

So as women rise up through their own competence hierarchy in education and employment, they further shorten down the potential pool of eligible men that are as educated or more educated and as employed or more employed than they are. This is a challenge. This is just a straight up imbalance. Right? What this causes is a very large group of men toward the bottom of this distribution to be essentially invisible to women.

同时越来越多女性不得不竞逐顶端不断缩水的精英男性群体。这些超高价值男性选择过剩，因而抗拒承诺——既然选择众多，何必安定？这导致他们频繁更换伴侣，进而引发多数女性对男性的普遍怨恨。而被遗忘在底层的男性则会抗议：我连被看见的机会都没有，凭什么要为别人的行为买单？

It causes a very large number of women, an increasing cohort to compete for an increasingly small group of turbocharged super performers at the top. These guys, the super high value guys, have a wealth of options, so they are commitment averse. Why would they decide to sit down with one girl for the rest of time when they have this wealth of options, which can cause them to use and discard many of these women, which then causes most of these women to resent men overall. And then the guys that were forgotten at the bottom that say, well, hang on a second. I didn't use and discard you.

你们甚至从未注意到我的存在。不，不，所有男人都被贴上了某种标签，对吧？

I haven't even been seen by you. No. No. All men are whatever it might be. Right?

确实如此，那些我们不需要的用户和滥用者，他们消耗了所有优秀男性的资源，诸如此类。这是一大群自认为是好男人却感到被忽视的男性。同时，有相当一部分女性终于实现了教育、职业和经济的独立，却在追逐更少数量的男性群体。这些男性对承诺避之不及。我认为这对他们自身也未必是好事。

That they are, users and abusers that we don't need them to wear all of the good men at, etcetera, etcetera. It's a big group of men that feel like they are good men that are invisible. There's a big portion of women who have finally managed to achieve educational and employment and independence that are chasing after a smaller group of guys. These guys are commitment to verse. I don't think it's necessarily good for them either.

就像拿着冰淇淋的小孩。对吧？当桌面上有很多选择时，要让男性保持克制对他们来说也很困难。这是主要驱动因素之一。我认为这个'高挑女孩问题'正在引发约会动态的巨大变革。

It's the child with the ice cream. Right? Like, guys being able to keep it in their pants when there's a lot of options on the table is going to be difficult for them too. This is one of the main drivers. This tall girl problem is a massive change, I think, in the dating dynamics.

这显然引出一个问题，克里斯，如果你所说的一切都客观正确、切中要害且有数据支持，那么假设我任命克里斯·威廉姆森担任世界首相或总统，你的首要任务就是解决这个挑战——嗯。

It obviously begs a question, Chris, which is if everything you've said is objectively correct and spot on and supported by the data, then how does if I make Chris Williamson the prime minister or president of the world and I say your first job is to fix this challenge Mhmm.

你会怎么做？首先绝不能做的是撤销女性的教育和就业权利。这正是讨论中的症结所在。对吧？我刚刚陈述的现象都有皮尤研究和摩根士丹利的数据支撑。

What do you do? The first thing that you don't do is roll back women's education and employment. And this is one of the problems with this discussion. Right? The things that I've just said there are born out in Pew Research data, Morgan Stanley results.

这些都是无可辩驳的事实。对吧？数据就摆在那里。任何年收入超过5万英镑、拥有硕士及以上学历、年近三十或三十多岁的女性听众都深有体会。你们清楚自己正苦于找不到符合标准的男性伴侣。

Like, these are incontrovertible facts. Right? They are there. And any girl that is listening who earns more than £50,000 a year and has got a master's or above level education and is toward their late thirties or in the, toward their late twenties or in their thirties knows this problem. You know the fact that you are struggling to find a man that you feel is eligible for you.

对吧？这个事实必须被正视。相关讨论的问题在于它将男女置于敌对竞争的关系中。对吧？视彼此为仇敌。

Right? That needs to be out there. The problem that happens around this discourse is that it posits men and women as adversaries and competitors of each other. Right? As enemies.

这意味着缺失了必要的同理心——无论对女性还是男性都该有的理解。如果你是历经寒窗苦读获得学位的女性，你知道母亲辈未能实现这样的成就，你可能是家族首个大学生、硕士或博士，然后在职场打拼多年如今年薪15万美元，31岁时渴望安定下来却困惑：男人们都去哪儿了？稍等片刻——你会意识到不仅要与日益壮大的高学历高收入女性群体竞争，还要和与父母同住的21岁咖啡师争夺那小撮男性资源。这需要社会对女性的体谅。这种处境对女性并不友好。与此同时，30%的男性过去一年没有性生活，50%表示不寻求恋爱关系——这个庞大的'无性男性群体'同样值得关注。

This means that worthwhile compassion, which is needed to both women and men if you're a woman who has gone through your education, you've dedicated yourself to achieving a degree, you know, your mother's generation wasn't able to achieve this and you're the first person that's maybe gone to uni or got a bachelor's or got a master's or got a PhD and then you spend some time in a career grinding away and you now earn a $150 a year and you think right I'm 31 I'd love to settle down this would be amazing for me where are all of the men at? Hang on a second And what you realize is that not only now are you competing with all of the other increasing cohort of women that are high achievers with status employment and education but you're also competing with a 21 year old barista who still lives at home with her parents for this small cohort of guys. That requires sympathy for women. That is not a good position for women to be in. At the same time, this huge cohort of sexless men, 30% of men haven't had sex in the last year, 50% of men say that they are not looking for a relationship.

你是个男人。你已经度过了二十多岁的年纪。你知道18到30岁之间男性性冲动的力量。你能想象自己陷入这样一种境地，说我对追求女性毫无兴趣吗？对男性来说，做出这样的声明简直难以置信地极端，而皮尤研究数据显示他们正在自我认同这种状态。

You are a man. You have been through your twenties. You know the power of the male sex drive between the ages of 18 and 30. Can you imagine getting yourself into a situation where you say, I'm not bothered about pursuing women? That is an unbelievably extreme statement for men to make, and they're self identifying as this in Pew Research data.

这可不是在宅男论坛上。这是皮尤研究的数据。50%的男性不寻求恋爱关系。

This isn't on incel forums. This is Pew Research. 50% of men aren't looking for a relationship.

当他们说'不寻求'时

When they say aren't looking for

'一段关系'，他们是指我不找女人还是我不想要承诺？

a relationship, do they mean I'm not looking for a woman or I'm not looking for commitment?

我没有积极寻求与女性有任何形式的互动。

I'm not actively pursuing any kind of interaction with women.

哦，该死。

Oh, shit.

随便约也算？什么？50%。

Casual include. What? 50%.

作为创始人需要一些时间才能意识到这一点，但一旦明白，你就无法视而不见。为你的企业建立正确的系统至关重要。在我所有投资中一直给予帮助的是NetSuite，它是排名第一的云端财务系统，也是今天对话的赞助商。通过其高效平台，你可以将会计、财务、管理、库存和人力资源集中在一处管理。这项技术对我的所有公司都产生了巨大推动作用，尤其对我的FlightStory团队而言——过去一年我们正从初创阶段迈向规模化阶段。

It takes a little bit of time to realize this as a founder, but once you do, it's something you can't unsee. Having the right systems in place with your business is critical. One that's helped me across all of my investments is NetSuite, the number one cloud financial system and sponsor of today's conversation. Through their streamlined platform, you'll find all of your accounting, finance, management, inventory and HR in one place. And their technology has been a massive unlock for all of my companies, especially for my team at FlightStory, as over the last year we've moved out of startup mode into scale up mode.

正是在这个阶段，我们发现使用NetSuite具有战略意义。我们不再需要同时应付多个系统，将所有业务整合后，不仅减少了手动操作次数，也显著降低了错误率。超过42,000家企业选择NetSuite来保障业务未来，若想了解它如何助力你的企业，请访问netsuite.com/bartlett免费下载《CFO人工智能与机器学习指南》。网址是netsuite.com/bartlett

And that's the stage where we found it mission critical to use NetSuite. We no longer have to juggle multiple systems, and having everything together has reduced the number of manual tasks and of course the number of errors. Over 42,000 businesses have chosen to future proof their business with NetSuite, so if you'd like to learn how it can help your business, head to netsuite.com/bartlett and free download the CFO's guide to AI and machine learning. That's netsuite.com/bartlett