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特朗普总统因为我试图帮助哈里斯和林肯，而威胁要对我进行个人和政治报复。
President Trump was threatening personal and political retaliation because I tried to help Harris and Lincoln.
你觉得你会受到惩罚吗？
Do you think you'll be penalized?
会的。
Yes.
是直接针对你的吗？
And direct on you?
是直接针对我的。
And direct to me.
你不会打算离开美国吧，是吗？
You're not planning on leaving The US, are you?
里德·霍夫曼是领英的联合创始人，也是全球最成功的企业家之一，在贝宝、Airbnb、Facebook和OpenAI等有影响力公司的成功中发挥了关键作用。
Reid Hoffman is the cofounder of LinkedIn and one of the world's most successful entrepreneurs, playing pivotal roles in the success of influential companies, including PayPal, Airbnb, Facebook, and OpenAI.
现在，他成为人工智能领域的领军人物，帮助人们利用这项新技术来提升自身的生活和事业。
And now he is a leading voice in AI, helping people utilize this new technology to empower themselves in their life and careers.
你曾是所谓的‘PayPal黑手党’一员，他们后来创建了特斯拉、YouTube、Reddit、SpaceX、LinkedIn，并成为亿万富翁。
You were part of what they call the PayPal mafia, who went on to create Tesla, YouTube, Reddit, SpaceX, LinkedIn, and become multibillionaires.
所以我有太多问题了。
And so I've got so many questions.
我们开始吧。
Let's do it.
优秀企业家心态的关键因素是什么？
What are the key factors of a great entrepreneur's mindset?
首先，你必须明白，通往乐观的未来不是通过逃避失败实现的。
One is you have to understand that you don't get to an optimistic future by trying to avoid failure.
当我们创办LinkedIn时，每个人都说这不会成功。
When we started LinkedIn, everyone said this won't work.
但仅仅因为你没有100%成功的把握，并不意味着你不该去做。
But just because you don't have a 100% chance of succeeding doesn't mean that you shouldn't do it.
但还有一套罕见的技能，其实是可以教给企业家的，这会让你更有可能成功。
But there's also a set of skills that are rare that you can actually teach to entrepreneurs that makes you much more likely to be successful.
首先是
The first is
那么，你怎么知道什么时候该辞职呢？
And then how do you know when to quit the job?
你对工作与生活平衡怎么看？
What's your view on work life balance?
如果你要建议任何人在2025年积累财富，你会说什么？
And if you were advising anyone to build wealth in 2025, what would you say?
这里有一些简单的建议。
Here are some simple tips.
一是Reef，你对人工智能怎么看？
One is Reef, what is your take on AI?
它赋予了我们超能力。
It gives us superpowers.
但这也伴随着代价。
Now there will be cost to it.
但就像电力一样，它确实会电死人，但却是人类社会不可或缺的。
But, like, electricity, it does electrocute people, but it's essential for human society.
那么，有没有什么
And is there anything that
普通人应该做什么来抓住AI带来的机遇？
the average person should be doing to capitalize on the opportunity that AI presents?
百分之百。
A 100%.
这就是你要做的。
This is what you do.
所以
So
在我们继续回到这一集之前，快速问一个问题。
quick one before we get back to this episode.
请花三十秒时间告诉我。
Just give me thirty seconds of your time.
我想说两件事。
Two things I wanted to say.
首先，衷心感谢你们每周收听和支持这个节目。
The first thing is a huge thank you for listening and tuning into the show week after week.
这对我们的所有人来说意义非凡，这真的是我们从未想过、也无法想象能走到今天这一步的梦想。
It means the world to all of us and this really is a dream that we absolutely never had and couldn't have imagined getting to this place.
但其次，这个梦想让我们觉得，我们才刚刚开始。
But secondly, it's a dream where we feel like we're only just getting started.
如果你喜欢我们在这里所做的内容，请加入那24%定期收听这个播客的听众，并在本应用中关注我们。
And if you enjoy what we do here, please join the 24% of people that listen to this podcast regularly and follow us on this app.
我向你们许下一个承诺。
Here's a promise I'm gonna make to you.
我会尽我所能，让这个节目现在和未来都做到最好。
I'm gonna do everything in my power to make this show as good as I can now and into the future.
我们会带来你们希望我对话的嘉宾，并继续坚持你们喜爱的节目的所有内容。
We're We're gonna deliver the guests that you want me to speak to and we're gonna continue to keep doing all of the things you love about this show.
谢谢。
Thank you.
非常感谢。
Thank you so much.
回到本期节目。
Back to the episode.
里德，当我阅读你的人生时，令人惊叹的是，一个人竟然能参与如此多对社会产生巨大影响的公司，同时还能一再地似乎预见未来。
Reid, as I read through your life, it's remarkable in it's almost impossible that one individual could be involved in so many companies that have had such a big impact on society, but at the same time, someone be able to seemingly see the future over and over and over and over again.
因此，当我阅读你的人生时，我想这不可能是一个人做到的。
So because as I read through your life, thought this can't be one individual.
这不可能是一生就能完成的。
This can't be one lifetime.
这让我不禁思考，在你看来，是什么因果因素造就了你这样的人生？
It begs the question to me, what is in your view, the causal factors that set you up for such a life?
这很有趣。
That's interesting.
我以前从未被问过这个问题。
I've never been asked that question before.
这可能是因为我的热情在于：我们人类是谁？我们将去向何方？
Probably it's a combination of the fact that my passion is who are we as human beings and where are we going?
所以这从我很小的时候就开始了。
So that's from a very young age.
我想我是通过阅读科幻小说获得这种视角的。
And I think I got it by reading science fiction.
它让我思考：人类的范围有多大？
It was kind of like, what is the scope of humanity?
艾萨克·阿西莫夫的《基地》系列之类的著作。
Isaac Asimov's Foundation and this kind of stuff.
然后我渐渐长大了。
And then I ended up growing up.
我出生在桑福德医院。
I was born in the Sanford Hospital.
我最终在硅谷长大。
I ended up growing up in Silicon Valley.
因此我接触到科技能够改变世界。
And so I got the exposure to technology can change the world.
于是我就专注于思考人类与科技的交汇点。
And so focusing on thinking about kind of this intersection of humanity and technology.
当然，科幻作品在这方面也起到一定作用。
And of course, obviously, science fiction has some play to that too.
不过，科幻中的大多数科技都只是虚构的。
Although most of the technology in science fiction is just fiction.
比如我们有虫洞，能进行星际旅行。
It's just like we have wormholes and we do intergalactic travel.
但据我们所知，虫洞并不存在，也无法用于星际旅行。
And it's like, as far as we know, there is no such thing as wormholes for intergalactic travel.
对吧？
Right?
我的意思是，所有当代的物理理论都表明，这种东西并不存在。
I mean, all current contemporary theory of physics would suggest that there isn't.
也许虫洞是存在的，但它们并不是让你把《星际迷航》的宇宙飞船开进去然后去某个地方用的。
Mean, may be wormholes, but they're not for put your Star Trek spaceship in it and go somewhere.
然后，另一部分可能是，我小时候玩了很多桌游，这让我对策略有了深刻的理解。
And then probably the other part of it is I played a lot of board games when I was a kid, and so it gave me a very deep sense of strategy.
所以，面对生活，没错，就是这样。
And so approaching life, yeah, exact.
哇。
Wow.
就是这个。
This one here.
你可能还记得这个。
You probably remember this.
是的。
Yes.
我记得那个。
I do remember that.
对吧？
Right?
名字就在封面上。
And the name's on the cover.
无主之地。
Borderlands.
你开始玩《龙与地下城》时多大？
What age were you when you started playing Rune Quest?
你那时候很小。
You're very young.
我开始玩《龙与地下城》的时候，大概是十岁。
When I started playing Rune Quest, probably 10.
你小时候十岁玩的那些桌游和你后来的生活之间有什么联系？
And what is the link between the life you lived and the horde games you played as a 10 year old?
嗯，主要是因为角色扮演游戏本质上是一种策略游戏。
Well, mostly as a function again, the role playing games is like strategy.
所以，你如何思考一场冒险，它既是叙事体验，也是策略体验。
So it's how do you think about an adventure is both a narrative experience but is also a strategic experience.
比如，你如何拯救小镇免受强盗袭击，诸如此类的事情。
Like how do you save the town from the bandits, that kind of thing.
因此，它让我深刻理解了战略、战术、解决问题，以及如何作为一个团队来完成这些，对吧？
And so it gave me a deep sense of how to strategy and tactics and problem solving and how do you do it as a group, right?
因为在奇幻角色扮演游戏中，尤其是我小时候玩的时候，通常是一群男生围坐在桌旁。
Because in fantasy role playing games, it tends to be, especially when I was doing it as a kid, a set of blokes around the table.
我听说现在性别比例更平衡了，这很好，尤其是对那些男生来说。
I hear it's now a little bit more gender balanced, which is good, and especially for the blokes.
这就像是，哦，我们这里不是只有自己这些书呆子。
It's like, oh, we're not just geeks by ourselves here.
而我之所以开始做这件事，是因为我当时足够专注，你知道，我就是那种孩子——我听说混沌社的办公室就在我一个朋友家附近。
And the way that I got to doing this is I was enough because this is kind of the focused, you know, kind of kid I was is what I I'd heard that the Chaosium had their offices were were down the street from a friend of mine's.
于是我 literally走进门，开始在他们的办公室闲逛。
And so I literally walked in the door and started hanging out at their office.
他们是这款游戏的制作方。
And they're the maker of this game.
他们是这款游戏的制作方。
They're the maker of this game.
我觉得首席编辑想让我离开办公室。
The chief editor, I think, wanted to get me out of the office.
所以他给了我一份正在开发中的初稿，说：‘喏，你去看看这个。’
So he said he handed me the pre the the in development draft of this and said, here, go look at this.
于是我把它带回家了。
And so I took it home.
作为一个痴迷的孩子，我用红笔逐条批注了它。
As an obsessive kid, I redlined it.
我一步步地把它研究完了。
I worked my way through it.
我把它带回来了。
And I brought it back.
他给了我，然后我周一就把它还了回去。
Like he gave me a and I brought it back on Monday.
所以他没能实现赶走这个孩子的目标。
So he failed on his get this kid out of the office mission.
但他当时的表情我至今还记得，那是一种淡淡的烦躁，因为我把这东西交给他时，他心想：‘哦，这孩子又给我拿来了这个。’
But he was then and I still remember this look of vague irritation when I handed him this because he's like, oh, this kid is handing me this thing.
哦，该死。
Oh, fuck.
我不想做个刻薄的人。
I don't want to be a mean guy.
然后他开始看，说：‘哦，这其实做得不错。’
And then he started looking at it and went, oh, this is actually good work.
他说：‘我想用这份工作。’
And he was like, I want to use this work.
我当时还是个孩子，所以我不明白。
And I was a kid, so I didn't understand.
他需要用我的作品就得付我钱。
He needed to pay me to use it.
我做这件事并不是为了钱，只是想证明我知道怎么做好这些事。
That wasn't why I was just doing it because I wanted to show that knew how to do this stuff.
于是他给我开了一张支票。
And so he then wrote me a check.
这是我人生中的第一张工资支票，因为要使用我的作品出版，这就是版权的意义——他因此拥有了我所有作品的版权。
So it was my very first paycheck to be able to use the work in the publication because this is how copyrights means he then owns all the work that I did so he could publish it.
那你的作品今天还在里面吗？
And is your work still in here today?
在。
Yes.
嗯。
Uh-huh.
所以你对这个游戏做的修改仍然在这里。
So edits that you made to this game are still in here.
是的。
Yes.
当时多大年纪？
At what age?
那时候我12岁。
That was 12.
哇。
Wow.
太不可思议了。
That's incredible.
他付了你多少钱？
And how much did he pay you?
哦，大概160美元左右吧。
Oh, it's like a $160 or something.
一个12岁的孩子能赚到这些，已经不错了。
That's not bad for a 12 year old.
我不是。
I'm No.
不是。
No.
不是。
No.
我爸爸最初是反对奇幻角色扮演游戏的。
My dad that's like My dad was originally opposed to fantasy role playing games.
所以我问：你在干什么？
So I was like, what what are you doing?
你知道的，去走一条真正的人生道路吧。
Like, you know, go, like, be on a path to a real life.
当我拿出工资单时，我
And then when I brought on the paycheck, I
嗯，也许这样可行。
like, well, maybe that works.
那你那时候的梦想是什么？
And what was your what were your dreams at that age?
当你十二三岁、十四五岁的时候，你觉得自己将来会成为什么样的人？
What did you think you were gonna be when you were older, sort of 12, 13, 14 years old?
说实话，除了下面这件有趣的事，我根本没想过别的——因为我的父母都是律师，所以当我在12岁时被问到长大后想做什么时，我的答案不是律师。
Frankly, I had no idea other than the following entertaining thing, which is since both my mother and father are lawyers, when I was asked when I was 12 what I wanted to be when I grew up, the answer was not a lawyer.
真的吗？
Really?
是的。
Yes.
因为律师嘛，显然在英联邦那边是出庭律师。
Well, because lawyers look, obviously a bunch of or barrister on the side of the pond.
律师本质上是现代角斗士，他们拿工资去为自己的雇主——无论是客户还是全职雇员——充当角斗士。
Lawyers are essentially modern gladiators who are paid to be the gladiator of whatever their paycheck is, whether it's a client or whether it's being a full time employee and so forth.
而且这是高质量的工作。
And it's quality work.
这对社会很重要。
It's important for society.
但我心想，不，不，我想创造东西。
But I was like, no, no, I want to create things.
我不想成为剑上的腰带，去为合同、诉讼或任何那些事情进行言语上的战斗。
I don't want to be a belt on my sword and go to verbal battle for whatever the contract or litigation or any of those things.
而且我心想，不，不，我其实想去建造东西。
And I was like, no, no, I actually want to go build things.
所以我不知道长大后想成为什么，也许我现在还是不知道。
And so I didn't know what I wanted to be when I grew up other than and maybe I still don't know.
但我逐渐形成的是，我通常会制定一个两到三年的迭代计划。
But what I evolve to is I normally have about a two to three year plan that's iterating.
而这正是我通常所做的事情。
And that tends to be what I do.
在斯坦福医院出生也很重要。
And being born at Stamford Hospital is pertinent as well.
不要以为英国和世界各地的人们都知道这有什么重要意义。
Don't think people in The UK and around the world necessarily know the significance of that.
但你能解释一下为什么这很重要吗？
But can you explain why that's important?
硅谷是一个生成性平台的网络。
Silicon Valley a network of a generative platform.
所以我学到的一点是，网络能放大生产力。
So one of the things that I have learned to think about is networks amplify productivity.
这不仅仅是我们要探讨的原因。
That's not just as we get to why it is.
我构思并创立了领英。
I conceptualized and founded LinkedIn.
但要从网络的角度来思考。
But it's think in terms of networks.
这就是为什么城市如此具有驱动力的原因之一。
It's one of the reasons why cities are such engines.
基本上，如果你仔细观察经济，就会发现是城市区域在起作用。
Basically, if you really look at economies, it's city regions.
这是因为城市区域形成了一个网络。
And it's because the city region creates a network.
这个网络可以是供应商等各种要素，但也包括人才、资本、知识、沟通以及对世界的战略视角。
It's a network of it could be suppliers and all the rest, but also talent and capital and knowledge and communication and strategic lenses onto the world.
所以硅谷的人会说：‘哦，我是个天才。’
And so Silicon Valley has been people go, oh, I'm a genius.
但实际上，不是这样的，我只是身处硅谷。
It's like, no, no, I'm in Silicon Valley.
这真的很有帮助。
And that really helps.
因此，出生在斯坦福给了我一套不同的视角。
And so being born in Stanford gave me set of different perspectives.
第一，技术是洞察未来的窗口。
One, technology is a lens into the future.
第二，作为个人，你可以创造一项技术或一家科技公司，作为改变世界的杠杆。
Another one is as an individual, you can go create a technology or a technology company that can be a lever that can move the world.
而且，任何地方的个人都能做到这一点。
And that an individual from anywhere can do that.
所有这些都构成了出生在斯坦福的幸运之处。
And all of those things were part of the luck of being born at Stanford.
幸运？
The luck?
是的。
Yes.
嗯，我无法选择你出生在哪里，但很多
Well, I don't choose where you're But a lot of
人出生在那里，却没有像你一样取得成就。
people were born there, and they didn't go on to do the things that you did.
人们喜欢讲述天命论的故事。
People like to tell stories of manifest destiny.
这是因为我很优秀。
It's because I am great.
无论我在哪里，我都会很出色。
I would have been great anywhere that I was.
这是一种自我欺骗。
And it's self delusional.
是的，我认为我很聪明。
Yes, I think I'm smart.
是的，我认为我很勤奋。
Yes, I think I'm hardworking.
是的，我认为我很有战略眼光。
Yes, I think I'm strategic.
是的，我认为我拥有罕见的人类技能。
Yes, I think I have skills that are rare human condition.
但任何伟大的成就也都离不开运气。
But any great achievement also has luck.
我可以在任何公司中指出来。
And I can point it in any companies.
我可以在任何个人身上指出来。
I can point it at any individuals.
比如，其中一种基本的运气是我接触并连接到了硅谷。
And for example, one of the basic luck is I had exposure and connection to Silicon Valley.
如果我没有这些，我所取得的技术成就或技术成果就不可能实现，也不可能以我做到的那样非凡的方式完成。
If I didn't have that, the technology destiny or the technology achievements I've done wouldn't have been able to do those or wouldn't have been able to do those the amazing way that I did them.
那么你会说什么呢？
So what would you say then?
因为有来自世界各地的人在收听这个节目。
Because there's people that listen to the show all around the world.
刚刚发布的Spotify年度总结显示，我们的听众群体遍布全球，规模相当庞大。
We just Spotify Wrap just came out, globally, we have quite an extensive audience.
是的。
Yes.
很有趣。
It's funny.
有趣的是，虽然受众遍布全球，但我认为这得益于你在YouTube上发布内容并且使用英语。
It's funny that it's so globally distributed, but I think a factor of being on YouTube and speaking English.
对于那些出生在开普敦、印度尼西亚、澳大利亚、新西兰的人，你会对他们说什么？
What would you say to people that are born in we've got an audience in Cape Town, in Indonesia, in Australia, New Zealand.
你会对那些地区的人说什么？
What would you say to people in those parts of the world?
你还能做到所谓的巨大成功吗？
Can you still be, quote unquote, massively successful?
是的。
Yes.
但你必须这样想，而且我看到你那里有几本我的书。
But you have to think so and I see you have a few of my books there.
我的第一本书《初创企业评论》源于我在佛蒙特州普特尼中学毕业典礼上的演讲。
My very first book, The Startup Review, which came from the commencement speech I gave at my high school, the Putney School in Vermont.
因为我在想，我该对一群十七岁的孩子说些什么呢？于是我想到，要做自己人生的创业者。
Because I was like, what do I say to a bunch of seventeen year And I was like, well, be the entrepreneur of your own life.
书中有一章提到，你通常听到的错误建议就是追随你的热情。
And what that means there's a chapter in there that says, the bad advice you're usually given is just follow your passion.
但问题是，你的热情可能非常强烈。
And the problem is your passion might be very passionate.
但你在那方面有战略优势吗？
But do you have a strategic advantage there?
那件事是你能做好的吗？
Is that something you can do?
因此，运用创业的规则，当然，你必须对你所做的事情充满热情。
And so applying the rules of entrepreneurship, yes, of course, you have to be passionate about what you're doing.
因为如果你没有热情，就不可能成为世界级的专家，除非你对你所做的事情充满热情。
Because if you're not passionate, you can never be world class unless you're passionate about what you're doing.
但那并不是唯一的事情。
But that's not the only thing.
所以你要看看，好吧，市场现实是什么？
And so you look at, Okay, what are the market realities?
市场是什么？
What's the market?
竞争是什么样子的？
What does competition look like?
在这些条件下，你的目标可以是什么？
And within those, what can your aspirations be?
那本书里有一整章讲这个，因为顺便说一下，这和你创办公司时的规划方式很相似。
And there's a whole chapter on that in that book because that's, by the way, similar to how you plot out if you're founding a company.
如果你要创办一家公司，你也必须以同样的方式思考这个问题。
If you're founding a company, you have to think the same way about this.
但要把这当作个人来思考。
But think about it as an individual.
所以如果你在开普敦，你可以做很多很棒的事情。
So if you're in Cape Town, there are many great things you could do.
现在，你说你要创建一家与谷歌竞争的搜索公司，别这么做。
Now, you say, what I'm going to do is create a search company to compete with Google, don't do that.
我的意思是，除非你真的有一些真正独特的东西。
I mean, unless you really have some real unique thing.
因为你要记住，你不仅要与这家公司竞争，还要与整个硅谷生态系统竞争，它吸引了来自世界各地的顶尖人才、资本和知识。
Because remember, you're competing with this intensely powerful not just the company, but the network of Silicon Valley, which attracts amazing talent from around the world, capital, knowledge.
而且他们以极快的速度彼此分享这些资源。
And they're all sharing it with each other at a very fast clock speed.
所以无论你在哪里，这种做法都行不通。
And so wherever you are, that doesn't work.
现在，你要思考的是：我到底能做些什么。
Now, you do think about it as, Okay, what can the thing I do.
比如，我非常喜欢播客。
So for example, I love podcasts.
如你所知，我精通Scale、Possible等公司。
As you know, I master scale, Possible, etcetera.
因此，我很荣幸采访了托比·卢特卡或丹尼尔·埃克。
And so I had the delight of doing interviews with Toby Lutka or Daniel Ek.
你需要思考的是，他们的成功之处——比如Shopify、Spotify——是如何从这里制定战略的？
And what you do is you look at part of their success Shopify, Spotify is how do I run my strategy from here?
我如何才能在硅谷无法涉足的全球市场中保持竞争力并取得胜利？
How is it that I'm competitive and can win a global field marketplace that Silicon Valley doesn't do?
因此，例如在Spotify的案例中，他们的方式是：我可以先从斯堪的纳维亚地区入手，让唱片公司给我一个机会开始业务。
And so for example, one of the things that they're different in the cases because like for example in Spotify that was, hey, I can get the record labels to give me a chance to start doing the business by doing just Scandinavia.
先证明可行性，然后再扩展。
Prove it and then expand it.
而在美国，唱片公司根本不会提供这样的资本支持。
Whereas those record labels, the capital to do it in The US would never happen.
因此，才有了Spotify。
And hence, you have Spotify.
在Shopify，硅谷往往认为电子商务已经终结了。
And in Shopify, it's, hey, the Silicon Valley tends to go, oh, e commerce is over.
它被亚马逊掌控了。
It's owned by Amazon.
我们不会以平台的形式做这些事。
We're not going to do any of that as a platform.
也许会做某件事或那件事，但我们不会以平台的形式去做。
Maybe this thing or that thing, but we're not going to do it as a platform.
但他们错了。
Well, but they're wrong.
我可以打造一个庞大的生态。
And I can do a long place.
一旦我建立起大量中小型企业各自搭建网站和电子商务的网络效应，我就成为了他们的平台。
And then once I get to this network effect of a whole bunch of small and medium businesses doing their own kind of websites and e commerce, then I am the platform for that.
因此，这是一种低调的长期战略，你并不直接与硅谷公司竞争。
So it's kind of a long under the radar strategy where you're not directly competing with Silicon Valley companies.
等到硅谷公司意识到这是一个重大机遇时，你已经掌握了它。
And by the time the Silicon Valley companies go, oh, there's a major opportunity, you've got it.
所以，如果你聪明且有战略眼光，这些都是你可以采取的策略。
So those are plays that you can do if you're smart and strategic.
但你必须知道，托比·卢特卡对硅谷的动态了如指掌。
But you have to know Toby Lutka is deeply informed about what's going on in Silicon Valley.
当他制定战略时，他对此是有清醒认识的。
When he's charting a strategy, he's aware of that.
他有人脉。
He's got connections.
他经常去那里访问。
He visits.
我是他的朋友。
I I'm a friend of his.
如果你在做全球软件业务，你就必须意识到你的竞争对手是全球性的，这也是其中的一部分。
And that's part of if you're doing a global software play, you have to be aware that your competition is global.
这里需要一定的自我认知。
There's an element of self awareness required here.
是的。
Yeah.
有趣的是，当我年轻的时候，我肯定没有这种自我认知。
And it's funny because when I was younger, I certainly didn't have that self awareness.
我以为自己可以在卧室里创办一个社交网络，即使之前从未做过。
I thought that I could start a social network from my bedroom without ever doing it before.
我当时并没有特别考虑地理环境或硅谷的情况。
And I wasn't necessarily thinking about the geographical situation or Silicon Valley.
作为创业者，自我认知有多重要？
How important is self awareness as an entrepreneur?
一个人该如何培养自我认知，以了解哪些挑战真正适合自己能力？
How does one cultivate it to know what challenge is actually befitting of their skills?
我认为自我认知对所有人来说通常都是非常好的事情。
So I think self awareness is generally a very good thing for all human beings.
你仍然必须具有非理性的雄心，我认为这非常重要。
And you still have to be irrationally ambitious, which is I think very important.
因此，有时自我意识和巨大的雄心并不总是能共存。
And so sometimes self awareness and just immense ambition sometimes don't go together.
当它们能共存时更好，但即使不能也没关系。
It's better when they do, but that's fine.
你必须非常清楚你的竞争环境是什么样子。
What you do have to do is be very aware of what your competitive space looks like.
几乎每一个取得重大成功的人，都擅长竞争。
So just about everybody who succeeds in a substantial way is good at being competitive.
如果你对竞争对手视而不见，那你基本上就完了。
And if you're blind to your competition, you're kind of hosed.
如果你成功了，那只是因为你运气好。
If you're successful, it's just because you're lucky.
这正是我之前提到的关于运气的部分。
And that's part of what I was referring to earlier on luck.
如果你创办一家企业，恰好运气好，竞争对手还没发现这个领域，而你获得了很长的领先优势，这就是运气的一个例子。
If you start a business where you have the luck where competitors haven't identified it, haven't and you get a long head start on it, that's an instance of luck.
并非所有成功的企业都是这样，但这种情况确实非常有利且很有用。
Not all the successful companies are that way, but that can be very good and very useful on that.
但你必须清楚地了解竞争格局是什么样子。
But you have to be very aware of what the competitive landscape looks like.
对于个人而言也是如此，因为‘我跟谁竞争’是一个相关的问题。
Now, that's also true of individuals because it's like, well, who am I competing against is a relevant question.
但作为个人，你即使对竞争视而不见，仍可能非常成功，这取决于具体情况。
But you can be kind of competitively blind as an individual and still be very successful because of the way it works.
但如果你作为企业或初创公司的领导者对竞争视而不见，几乎总是会陷入困境，对吧？
But if you're competitively blind leading a business, leading a startup, almost always that's host, right?
这就是为什么硅谷的所有投资者都会问你关于竞争对手的问题的原因之一。
That's one of the reasons why all investors in Silicon Valley always ask about your competition.
如果你说‘我没有竞争对手’，他们就会想：如果他们不同意你的看法，就不会投资，因为他们会觉得你对竞争毫无意识。
And if you say, I don't have any competition, you're like, well, if they disagree with you, they're not going to invest because they go, you're competitively blind.
有没有所谓的企业家，你知道的，人们总是问我。
Is there any such thing as an entrepreneur in the sense of you know, people always ask me.
他们说，任何人都能成为企业家和创始人吗？
They say, can anyone be an entrepreneur and a founder?
如今可以创办的公司类型多种多样，这个问题很难回答。
And there's so many different types of companies one can start these days that it's a quite tricky question to answer.
但你觉得呢？因为现在会有人听这段内容，他们可能是公司里的管理者，是的。
But do you think any because there's gonna be people listening to this now that are in they're managers in companies that Yeah.
你知道，他们在律师事务所之类的地方工作，或许他们有了一个想法。
You know, that they're working in a law firm or whatever, and maybe they've got an idea.
我的意思是，每个人都有想法，但他们不知道自己是否适合去追求它。
I mean, everyone's got an idea, and they don't know if they're the type of person that should pursue it or not.
有没有一个框架可以用来帮助判断这一点？
Is there a framework one can one free run through to decide that?
有。
Yeah.
我来介绍一下一个框架，好的。
I'll run through a framework Okay.
帮助大家。
To help folks.
简短的回答是：不行。
The the short answer is no.
不是每个人都应该成为企业家，就像不是每个人都应该尝试成为职业音乐家一样。
Not everyone should be an entrepreneur, just like not everyone should try to be a professional musician.
嗯。
Mhmm.
不是每个人都应该尝试成为运动员。
Not everyone should try to be an athlete.
不是每个人都应该成为——你得看看自己的竞争优势是什么。
Not everyone should be You have to look at what your competitive advantages are.
你的性格、技能和经历是否让你在成为企业家这件事上拥有竞争优势？
And does your dispositions, skill sets, path give you a competitive edge, in this case of being an entrepreneur?
因为任何竞争性游戏都是如此，而创业是一项高度竞争的活动。
Because any game that's competitive and entrepreneurship is a highly competitive game.
它就像试图成为全球知名的演员一样具有竞争性。
It's as competitive as trying to become a globally renowned actor.
它就像试图成为一家大型银行的首席执行官或其他任何职位一样具有竞争性。
It's as competitive as trying to become the CEO of a major bank or anything else.
所以这是一场竞争激烈的游戏。
So it's a competitive game.
因此，对于创业者来说，你必须认识到，其中一个经典的条件是能够承担重大风险。
So for an entrepreneur, what you have to do is you have to say, Okay, well, I have to be able one of the classic ones to take substantial risks.
但这并不意味着盲目冒险。
Now, it's not being risk blind.
实际上，创业者并不是盲目冒险的人。
Entrepreneurs are actually not risk blind.
偶尔他们可能会盲目冒险，偶尔他们运气好，事情就成功了。
Or occasionally they are, and occasionally they're lucky and it works.
但几乎所有成功的创业者都意识到，当你创办一家公司时，默认情况下它是死亡的。
But almost all the successful ones realize that when you start a company, you're default dead.
默认情况下，这家公司已经倒闭了。
By default, the company is out of business.
因此，你努力的目标是让公司从默认死亡转变为默认存活。
And so you're trying to get to a point where it's default alive versus default dead.
然后，还有许多其他因素会影响这场游戏。
Then there's a whole bunch of different things that go into that game.
其中之一是：你能获得资金吗？
So one is, well, can you go get the capital?
你所处的市场是否允许你获得资金？
Are you in a market that will allow you to get the capital?
你能否转移到一个允许你获得资金的市场？
Can you move to a market that allows you to get the capital?
你该如何向投资人展示你的项目以获得资金？
How do you pitch the capital?
融资路演是怎么进行的？
How does pitching capital go?
然后你会形成一个资本、人才、业务实现、资本、人才之间的良性循环。
And then you get this kind of flywheel going between capital, talent, business realization, capital, talent.
而你正在做这件事。
And you're doing that.
业务实现显然包括客户、市场推广、产品和服务的开发等等。
And the business realization obviously includes customers, includes go to market, includes building products and services, etcetera.
顺便说一下，这是一个动态的过程。
And by the way, it's dynamic.
所以你说，我去一家大公司工作了。
So you say, well, I went and worked at a large company.
我学到了很多东西。
And I learned a bunch of things.
没错，但你并没有学到你一开始就是默认失败的这个道理。
Well, yeah, but you didn't learn how you're default dead.
你没学会如何推出新产品。
You didn't learn how to launch a new product.
你没学会如何从一个小产品开始，逐步发展成一个更大的产品。
You didn't learn how do you start with a small product and grow to a larger product.
你没学会如何从零组建一个团队。
You didn't learn how do you set up a team from scratch.
顺便说一句，从零组建团队时，绝大多数人更希望自己的每周安排有更多确定性。
And by the way, a team from scratch when the vast majority of human beings like more certainty in what their week looks like.
比如，我会去一家公司工作，因为我可以继续在那里工作。
Like I'm going come work at a place because I can continue to work at a place.
只要我能够胜任我的工作，我就能保住我的职位。
And as long as I'm capable of what I'm doing, I keep my job in terms of what I'm doing.
所以我对一切都了然于心。
And so I understand with certainty.
因此，创业者必须做所有这些事情。
So entrepreneurs have to do all that sort of thing.
因此，除了敢于冒险，你还必须擅长从不同领域汇聚资源，并与你共同推进愿景。
So in addition to risk taking, you have to be good at bringing many resources from different vectors into your vision and working with you.
这些资源包括投资者、员工、客户、顾问和合作伙伴。
So there's investors, there's employees, there's customers, there's advisors, there's partners.
你必须在这一迭代旅程中，带领正确的一群人与你同行。
You have to bring the right set of those people along with you in this iterative, this iterative journey.
你必须能够不断成长和学习，因为游戏规则在不断变化。
You have to be able to grow yourself and learn because the game changes.
比如，我用来培训和帮助年轻创业者理解和构想的一个隐喻，就是军事战略中有许多相似之处。
Like one of the metaphors I use to train and conceptualize young entrepreneurs And there's a whole bunch of different parallels between military strategy.
这与棋盘游戏和商业战略也有相通之处。
It's part of like the board games thing and business strategy.
但就像海军陆战队夺取海滩一样。
But it's like Marines take the beach.
而陆军则占领整个国家。
Army takes the country.
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警察治理国家。
Police governs the country.
关于如何做到这一点，有三个非常粗略的广泛概括。
Three very crude, broad generalizations about how you do it.
所以你要问，你的海军陆战队战略是什么？
So you go, what's your marine strategy?
因为作为种子轮或A轮创业者，你必须制定一个良好的策略，来登陆海滩，实现初步的产品市场契合，并朝着规模化的产品市场契合迈进。
Because you must, as a seed series A, you must have a good strategy how you get on the beach, how you get initial product market fit, how you're heading towards scale product market fit.
好吧，你已经到了那里。
Okay, you're there.
你如何赢得国家？
How do you win the country?
市场。
The market.
你如何实现规模化的产品市场契合？
How do you get to scale product market fit?
这将如何运作？
How is that going to work?
你打算如何在这两种情况下应对竞争？
How are you going to play against competition different in these two?
你如何实现规模化？
How do you get up to scale?
你必须明白，这个游戏和那个游戏是不同的。
You have to learn this game is different than this game.
在做这件事的过程中，你一直在学习新东西。
And you're learning new things as you're doing it.
所以你必须具备我所说的‘无限学习者’这种特质。
So you have to have this kind of what I refer to as being an infinite learner.
就像你在学习这个游戏的新规则一样。
Like you're learning what the new game is.
顺便说一句，没有创业者在第一天就宣称：‘我知道怎么做市场营销。’
Because by the way, no entrepreneur shows up at day one going, well, I know how to do marketing.
我知道怎么做销售。
I know how to do sales.
我知道怎么做产品开发。
I know how to do product development.
我知道怎么做工程。
I know how to do engineering.
我知道怎么做工程运营。
I know how to do engineering operations.
我知道，不，不，不。
I know how to like, no, no, no.
你得把所有这些都整合进来。
You have to bring all that in.
你会通过这个过程学习你需要学的东西。
You'd be learning what you need to learn in order to do that through that.
而这正是你成长为这样的人的一部分。
And that's part of how you grow into that.
另外，一旦你建立了生意，因为另一件会引来大量竞争的事情是，人们会说，哦，那是个很有价值的生意。
And then, by the way, once you've established a business because another thing that brings in a lot of competition is people say, oh, that's a valuable business.
我可能也想试试做这个。
I'd like to possibly do that.
然后新的一代强劲竞争者就会涌入。
And then a new generation of heavy competitors come in.
所以你能否保持并扩大你在市场中的地位？
So can you kind of keep your position and grow your position in a market?
这就像警察的部分，
Which is the police part,
对吧？
right?
警察的部分。
The police part.
是的，没错。
Yes, exactly.
所以你必须观察。
And so you have to look.
而这三种是不同的游戏。
And each of these three is different games.
而且还有更多的游戏。
And there's more games than that.
但这是一种简单理解它的方式。
But it's a way of simply understanding it.
所以要始终保持学习，像婴儿一样学习，并改变你的思维模式。
So always being learning, being an infant learner, and changing your mindset.
因此，经常地，比如当我第一次与创业者交谈时，我会挑战他们的愿景，看看他们是否是学习者。
And so frequently, like for example, when I'm talking to an entrepreneur, especially the first few times, is I will push them on their vision to see if they're learners.
首先，他们应该有毅力和韧性，因为我会说：不，我已经认真思考过这个问题。
Now, one, they should have persistence and grit because like, no, I've thought about this.
我有一个不错的计划。
I've got a good plan.
这就是我进入市场的方式。
This how I'm going to go to market.
我了解竞争对手的情况。
I understand what the competition looks like.
因为如果他们说，‘你说得对。’
Because if they go, oh, you're right.
我应该彻底改变。
I should totally change it.
你会说，好吧。
You're like, Okay.
你必须具备一些毅力和韧性。
You have to have some grit and persistence.
但另一方面，如果他们不这么说，‘是的。’
But on the other hand, if they're not going, oh, yeah.
不，如果我们遇到这种情况，确实需要做些调整。
No, if we encounter that, yeah, we'd have to do something about that.
比如，如果我们竞争对手开始这么做，也许我们也会这样做。
Like if our competitors started doing that, and maybe we'd do this.
所以他们也在学习。
So they also are learning.
他们很有弹性。
They have flexibility.
所以你需要这种组合。
So you want that combination.
初创公司的一个特点是，你必须具备一种看似矛盾的双重视角。
One of the things about startups is you have to bring this dual lens focus of things that seemingly are a little contradictory.
比如坚持和灵活。
So like persistence, flexibility.
另一个是现在和长期。
Another one is right now, long term.
你现在就必须行动。
Now you have to do right now.
但如果你没有长远的规划，不知道如何构建一个极其雄心勃勃的东西，你永远也达不到目标。
But if you don't have a long term of how you're building something that's insanely ambitious, you're never gonna get there.
如果你只瞄准山坡，你永远也到不了月球。
If if you shoot for the hillside, you're never gonna get to the moon.
你必须瞄准月球。
You have to shoot for the moon.
所以你要瞄准月球，但眼下只有我和我的两个朋友在一个车库里。
So you're shooting for the moon, but it's me and my two friends in a garage right now.
这很有趣，因为中间部分确实如此。
It's interesting because the middle bit Yes.
这重要吗？
Does that matter?
这很重要，但你要记住，比如海军陆战队、陆军、警察。
It does, but it's it's a remember, like, the marines, army, police.
是的。
Yeah.
军队，当你在做海军陆战队时，中间部分就是如此。
Army, when you're doing the marines, is the middle bit.
对。
Right.
好的。
Okay.
对。
Right.
对。
Right.
是的。
Yeah.
所以确实如此，但顺便说一句，其中一个错误，这也是为什么《观点开始》中有另一章关于ABC规划的原因。
So so it does, but it's not by the way and one of them, again, mistakes, and that's part of the reason why there's another chapter in Start of Views, ABC planning.
错误在于你有一个计划，然后你还有一个B计划。
The mistakes is you have a plan and then you have a plan B.
不是这样的，你有一个计划。
It's like, no, no, You have a plan.
然后你有很多小的B计划，对吧？
And then you have a lot of micro plan Bs, right?
所以你会想，如果这个不行，那就试试这个。
So you're of like, well, if that doesn't work, then let's try this.
如果这个也不行，那就试试那个，你不断迭代这些方案。
If that doesn't work, then let's try And you're iterating through them.
当你知道需要进行重大转型时，顺便说一句，许多成功的企业都会进行重大转型，PayPal最初是做手机加密的。
And when you know to do a major pivot because, by the way, many successful businesses also do major pivots PayPal started as encryption on cell phones.
它就是从这里开始的。
That's where it started.
所以你会进行重大转型。
So you do major pivots.
当你意识到，你从最初计划迭代而来的当前计划，反而比最初的计划更差时。
It's when you go, oh, my current plan, which I've iterated from my first plan, is worse than my first plan.
比如市场环境、成功的可能性，现在都变得更糟了。
Like the market circumstances, its chance of succeeding, those are now worse.
这时候你就该考虑了：好吧，我们来个重大转型。
That's when you think about, okay, let's do a major pivot.
所以用你躲避海滩的类比来说，你怎么知道该攻打哪个海滩呢？
So with your analogy of evading the beach, how do you know what beach to invade?
你怎么知道自己的想法是不是好主意？
Like, how do you know if you've got a good idea?
你怎么判断什么是好主意？
And how do you know what a good idea is?
因为正如我所说，大多数人听这个的时候，都有一个商业点子。
Because most people, as I said, listen to this, they've got a business idea.
嗯。
Yeah.
他们怎么知道这个点子好不好？
And they how do they know if it's good?
他们经常遇到的问题是，他们听到了一些传闻，或者看到别人已经在做了。
And the part of the issue they often have is they've heard anecdotally or they've seen that someone else is already doing it.
所以他们会想，天啊，这个已经被做过了。
So they go, oh gosh, it's already been done.
是的。
Yeah.
我们可以把想法分为两类。
There's, call it, two kinds of ideas.
顺便说一句，你想想世界上有超过80亿人。
And frankly, by the way, you think there's over 8,000,000,000 people in the world.
你认为自己是唯一想到这个点子的人，可能你的数学不太好。
The fact that you think you're the one person who's thought of this idea, you may not be doing math well.
对吧？
Right?
所以，认为自己是唯一想到这个点子的人，这是一种错误。
So thinking you're the one person who's thought of the idea, that's a mistake.
对吧？
Right?
问题是，你是否是那个能够凝聚力量、推动进程的人？顺便说一句，这可能最终只涉及100个人。
The question is, are you the person who can pull it together in the momentum and pull together and instill by the way, that may be, well, Okay, that gets down to 100 people.
好吧，我现在是不是那个正在行动的人？
Okay, well, am I the one who's in motion right now?
我是不是那个愿意冒险、辞掉工作去做的那个人？
Am I the person who's willing to take the risk, quit my job, and do it?
你永远不可能真正缩小到只有一个人，对吧？
And you never really get down to one, right?
所以创业是高风险的事业。
So startups are risky businesses.
举个例子，回到创业者身上——我觉得，即使在我创办LinkedIn之前，我已经创办过SocialNet，也作为联合创始人参与过PayPal，即便如此，当我开始创办LinkedIn时，我也会告诉人们：听着，我们成功的概率最多只有20%到25%。
Like one of the things let's get back to the entrepreneurs like I think the greatest chance and even when I was starting LinkedIn after having started SocialNet, after having co founded PayPal as a board member, even when I was starting LinkedIn, what I would tell the people is like, look, we have about a maximum of 20%, 25% chance of being successful.
说清楚一点。
Just to be clear.
我们打算努力将这个比例提升到100%。
We're going to try to grow that to 100%.
但现在我们只是 garage 里的一小群人。
But we're a couple of people in a garage right now.
有很多事情都可能出错。
Like, there's all kinds of things that can go wrong.
任何告诉你现在就有100%把握的人，要么是在自欺欺人，要么就是在骗你。
Anyone who's telling you it's 100% now, they're lying to themselves or they're lying to you.
我的策略既现实又富有雄心。
And I'm very realist and ambitious in my strategy.
所以你绝不能认为自己一开始就能有100%的把握。
And so you should never think you're starting something 100%.
在这些想法中，大致可以分为两种类型。
Now, within the ideas, go there's, roughly speaking, two kinds of ideas.
一种想法是，人们普遍认为这是个好主意。
One kind of idea is, people generally think that's a good idea.
他们觉得这是个好主意，因为你去问客户，客户会说：是的，我想要这个。
They think it's a good idea because you go to customers and customers say, yeah, I'd like that.
他们说：哦，好吧，人工智能将催生大量新的SaaS企业。
They go, oh, well, hey, AI is going to create a whole bunch of new SaaS businesses.
哦，没错，这听起来有道理。
Oh, yeah, that makes sense.
新技术的变革。
New technology transformation.
或者电商领域的人们，他们想要购买这类产品。
Or people in e commerce, they're going to want to buy this kind of stuff.
好吧。
Okay.
有道理。
Makes sense.
因此，有一系列想法，它们作为概念是相当可衡量的。
So there's a stack of things where they're pretty measurable as ideas.
你可以通过客户来衡量它们。
You can measure them with customers.
你可以进行反馈、调查和其他各种方式。
You can do feedback and polling and other kinds of things.
现在，这一类事情有好消息和坏消息。
Now, there's good news, bad news on this category.
好消息是，你可以降低风险，看看你的想法是否主要拥有市场？
The good news is you can de risk, is there a market for your idea mostly?
不是完全如此，但主要是这样。
Not entirely, but mostly.
坏消息是，很多其他人也能做到。
The bad news is so can a lot of other people.
是的。
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
因此，在这一类别中，竞争总是存在的。
And so in this category, there always tends to be competition.
一般来说，你的竞争策略需要回答：为什么在这个类别中，你应该预期到竞争的存在？
And your competitive strategy, generally speaking, needs to be why against like in this category, you should be expecting competition.
我凭什么能在全球竞争中足够胜出？
Why am I going to win out sufficiently against this competition in the global arena?
我投资了这些企业。
I have invested in those businesses.
Greylock 投资了大量这类企业。
Greylock invests in a bunch of those businesses.
我们是全球企业领域最顶尖的风险投资公司之一，等等等等。
We're one of the best VCs in enterprise on the planet, blah, blah, blah.
另一种我认为的类型，也是我通常开始并最倾向于投资的类型，是人们在你创业初期会觉得你疯了。
Then the other kind of I think, which is the one I tend to start and the one I tend to most invest in, is people think that you're crazy when you're starting your business.
顺便说一句，这确实可能成立，而且你常常就是疯了。
And by the way, that can be a by the way, and frequently you are.
但人们觉得你疯了，这意味着大多数人觉得你疯了，这意味着你的竞争对手少得多。
But people think you're crazy, which means most people think you're crazy, which means your competitive field is a lot less.
比如，我以领英和Airbnb为例。
So for example, I'll give LinkedIn as an example, and I'll give Airbnb as an example.
领英，我去说，嘿，个人会加入这个网络，建立公开的身份和资料，引入他们的社交圈并使用它，尽管注册领英的十亿人中绝大多数都在公司工作。
So LinkedIn, I go and I say, hey, individuals will join this network and establish a public identity and profile and bring in their network and use that, even as the vast majority of the billion people registered for LinkedIn are basically work at companies.
他们并没有创办公司。
They're not starting companies.
这是一个对创业者来说绝佳的平台。
It's a great platform for entrepreneurs.
创业者们立刻就明白了。
Entrepreneurs get it right away.
但我想，嗯，我在一家公司工作。
But I'm like, well, I'm working in a company.
如果我在上面建立个人资料，会不会显得对我的公司不忠？
Am I going to seem disloyal to my company if I establish a profile here?
有意思。
Interesting.
因为当我们刚开始做时，没人会用这个。
Because back when we started it, no one's going to use that.
为什么？
Why?
因为人们担心公司会因此解雇他们，或者不给他们奖金，或者其他事情，因为他们有LinkedIn个人资料，这会被认为是不忠。
Well, because they're worried about will their company fire them or not give them a bonus or something else because they have a LinkedIn profile because they're saying they're disloyal.
所以看起来他们是在找工作。
So it looks like they're shopping.
因为我的意思是，是的。
Because I mean Yes.
对于现在大多数使用LinkedIn的人来说，你不会觉得他们是在寻找其他职位。
For most people that use LinkedIn now, you don't see it as I'm looking for another role.
没错。
Exactly.
但那时候，人们确实会这么做。
But back then, people did.
2003年， literally，每个人都对我说，这行不通，因为你专注于个人。
2003, literally, everyone said to me, this won't work because you're individual focused.
你应该卖产品给公司。
You need to be selling products to companies.
好吧。
Okay.
对吧？
Right?
对。
Right.
所以我当时想，不，不行。
And so I was like, no, no.
我认为我对世界应该如何运作的看法是正确的。
I think I'm right about the way the world can and should be.
对吧？
Right?
所以我要承担这个风险。
And so I'm going to take that risk.
这就是逆向风险。
And that's the contrarian risk.
我要承担这个风险，并且把它继续推进下去。
I'm going to take that risk, and I'm going to play it forward.
如果我是对的，我将创造出一种能改变整个行业的东西，对个人和公司都会带来巨大的好处，等等。
And if I'm right, I will create something that will transform the industry, that will be amazing for individuals, amazing for companies, etcetera.
当然，如果你想深入了解LinkedIn的历程，我们也可以讲一讲。
And we can go, obviously, length you want to go through the LinkedIn journey, we can do that.
现在，Airbnb是一个投资案例。
Now Airbnb is an investor example.
所以Airbnb是我加入Greylock后的第一个投资。
So Airbnb was my first investment at Greylock.
我当时加入Greylock，是因为David Z——这位Greylock的合伙人，也是我在LinkedIn时最有价值的董事会成员——说服我应该去Greylock从事风投工作。
And I was at Greylock because David Z, who was the Greylock partner, who was my most valuable board member at LinkedIn, convinced me that I should do venture at Greylock.
我和David关系非常亲密。
And I'm very close to David.
于是我将Airbnb作为一项投资引入。
And so I bring in Airbnb as an investment.
David从桌子对面看着我说：听好了，每个风投机构都必须有一个会失败的投资项目。
And David looks across the table from me and says, look, every VC has to have a deal they're going to fail on.
Airbnb就归你了。
Airbnb can be yours.
真的吗？
Really?
是的。
Yes.
因为当时Airbnb的交易量非常少，创始人如果专心每周打电话，花五分钟给每个用户打个电话，就能联系到当周所有使用过Airbnb的人。
Because Airbnb at the time had so little volume in its transactions that the founders could have called everyone who used Airbnb that week if what they did is dedicated making phone calls, like five minutes of phone call through the week.
那时它规模小到这种地步。
That was how small it was.
大卫在灰洛克圆桌会议上提出的论点是：看，这非常奇怪。
And David's argument at the Greylock Roundtable was, look, this is very strange.
住在别人家里，你知道的，担心出什么差错。
Staying in other people's houses, know, like the danger of something going wrong.
城市会讨厌它。
Cities are going to hate it.
酒店大堂会试图在城市里禁止它。
Hotel lobbies are going to try to outlaw it within cities.
诸如此类。
You know, da da da.
这简直会在各处都变成一场灾难。
Like, this is just going to be a train wreck all over the place.
但我却说：不，我想赌一把。
And I was like, no, but I want to take the bet.
他說，太好了。
He's like, great.
我們聘請你當合夥人。
Like, we hired you as a partner.
我們覺得你很聰明。
We think you're smart.
去吧。
Go ahead.
對吧？
Right?
但要說到大衛的貢獻，六個月後，Airbnb的交易量呈現出經典的曲棍球棒形態。
Now, to David's credit, six months later, the transaction volume in Airbnb is like this classic hockey stick.
之前很多年都一直很小。
It was years of very small.
然後突然變得非常大。
And then it grew to being very big.
所以，那个增长曲线还没开始。
So the hockey stick hadn't started yet.
大卫来找我，说：好吧，因为‘持续学习’在风险投资中也很有用。
And David came to me and said, Okay because the always be learning is also useful in venture capital.
他来找我说：好吧，你对Airbnb的看法完全正确。
He came to and said, Okay, you were totally right about Airbnb.
而我完全错了。
And I was totally wrong.
你看到了什么是我没看到的？
What did you see that I didn't see?
当我坐在那里对你夸夸其谈，说这肯定会彻底失败时，你怎么知道的？
How did you know when I was sitting there blowing smoke at you saying, this is going to be a total failure?
你说：不，我想做这件事。
You said, no, want to do this.
我说：你看，你对Airbnb可能遇到的所有风险都看得非常准。
I said, well, look, you were right about all of the risks that could happen with Airbnb.
你完全正确。
You were absolutely right.
这些情况中的任何一种都可能让这家公司一文不值。
Any of those things could have made the business worth zero.
但这就是为什么作为投资者，我们要做投资组合。
But this is the reason, as investors, we do a portfolio.
因为是的，Airbnb 可能会归零。
Because yes, Airbnb could be zero.
但如果它成功了，就会变得非常庞大，对吧？
But if it worked, it was going to be huge, right?
它将彻底改变一个行业。
It was going to transform an industry.
这种投资正是我作为创业者或投资者喜欢做的。
This is the kind of investment I like doing as an entrepreneur or as an investor.
我说，看，我们为每一个风险都制定了应对计划。
And I said, look, we had a plan for each of those risks.
我们有一个A计划。
We had a plan A.
我们还有B计划。
We had plans B.
我们将努力应对。
We're going to try to navigate.
并不是说我们能保证消除这些风险。
It isn't that we could guarantee the risk.
但正因为其他人都看到了这些风险，所以我们有了数年的无竞争期，能够建立网络和市场。
But the fact that everyone else saw those risks meant that we had years of no competition, that we could establish the network, we could establish the marketplace.
一旦我们站稳脚跟，我们就成为了这一模式的市场平台。
And then once we're there, we are the marketplace for how that works.
这就是我喜欢做的投资类型。
And that's the kind of investment I like doing.
创办领英时，情况也是如此。
That's the same thing with LinkedIn as I founded it.
对Airbnb这个投资来说也是一样。
Same thing with Airbnb as an investment.
所以这类投资，你无法通过客户来验证。
And so that category of investment, you cannot validate with the customers.
我本来想说，如果大家都觉得这是个好主意，那它可能不是一个伟大的主意。
I was going say, so if everybody thinks it's a good idea, it's probably not a big idea.
是的。
Yes.
这要困难得多，因为
It's much more challenging to
成为一个伟大的主意。
be a big idea.
很有趣。
Interesting.
真的很有趣。
Really interesting.
因为这很有趣，当人们向你推销时，他们会说：我问了所有人，大家都觉得这很棒。
Because it's funny because when people pitch to you, they say, I've asked everybody and everybody thinks it's great.
是的。
Yes.
所以这很可能是一个信号，说明它可能不够大，或者他们在瞎扯。
So that's probably an indicator that it's probably not big or they're bullshitting.
是的。
Yes.
我在寻找的，无论是自己创造点子还是投资点子，都不是那些觉得这主意很糟的普通人。
And I'm looking for, both in my creation of ideas and in my funding of ideas, It's not dumb people who think it's a bad idea.
而是那些觉得这主意很糟的聪明人。
It's smart people who think it's a bad idea.
你希望聪明人能思考。
You want smart people to think.
是的。
Yes.
因为那样你就有了一个反直觉的想法。
Because then you have something that's contrarian.
因为这就是反直觉的含义。
Because that's what contrarian is.
反直觉就是我完全不懂这项技术。
Contrarian is an I don't understand technology at all.
我觉得这是个糟糕的主意。
I think it's a terrible idea.
就像是，谁在乎呢？
It's like, well, who cares?
你什么都不懂。
You don't understand anything.
是聪明人认为这是个坏主意。
It's smart people who think it's a bad idea.
然后你就有了一个关于这个游戏的理论，这个理论不错，虽然不完美，但可能非常有风险，解释了他们为什么错了。
And then you have a theory of the game that's a good one, not perfect, can be very risky, about why they're wrong.
所以我来给你举个领英的例子。
So I'll give you the LinkedIn example.
约翰·利利，我在灰度资本的合伙人，后来是我把他招募进灰度资本的。
Literally, John Lilly, partner of mine at Greylock I recruited him into Greylock later.
他曾是我在董事会任职的Mozilla的首席执行官。
He was the CEO of Mozilla that I was on the board of.
他是个非常聪明的人，也是我的朋友。
Super smart guy, friend of mine.
我坐下来和他聊了聊领英，因为每当我开始创业时，我都会去找我最聪明的朋友，告诉他们：‘我正在做这个。’
I sat down with him about LinkedIn because this is how I go when I'm starting a company, I go to all my smartest friends, and I go, here's what I'm doing.
你觉得它有什么问题？
What's wrong with it?
我不想听他们说：‘这太棒了。’
I don't want to have the conversation with them going, oh, it's great.
毫无用处。
Useless.
这对我没有帮助。
Doesn't help me.
对。
Right.
它哪里有问题？
What's wrong with it?
为什么这个会失败？
Why will this go why will this fail?
于是我坐下来和约翰谈了。
And so I sat down with John.
我们在硅谷的一家早餐店吃了早餐。
We had breakfast at breakfast place in Silicon Valley.
我说，哒哒哒。
I said, da da da.
他说，好吧。
And he said, Okay.
听着，我是你的朋友。
Look, I'm your friend.
这永远不会成功的。
It's never going to work.
我说：好吧，那你为什么觉得它永远不会成功？
And I said, Okay, well, why do you think it's never going to work?
他说：你看，你永远无法扩大这个网络。
He said, well, look, you'll never grow the network.
第一个进来的人，网络里别人都没有，对我而言毫无价值。
The first person who comes in, no one else in the network, not valuable for me.
我为什么要邀请别人进来？
Why should I invite someone in?
直到你拥有，我不知道，五十万、一百万人，这个网络才会有价值。
Until you have, I don't know, 500,000 people, a million people, there's no value in the network.
所以根本没有任何价值。
So there's zero value.
所以它永远不会增长。
So it's never going to grow.
你永远无法取得任何进展。
You're never going to get anywhere.
而一个非常聪明、洞察深刻的想法，可能是创立LinkedIn的关键：如何让网络中达到数百万用户，因为只有到那时，价值主张才会真正发挥作用。
And it was a very smart, perspicacious thought that was probably the key thing for starting LinkedIn was how do you get to millions of people in the network because that's the only place where the value proposition kicks in.
我知道，如果有一千人加入，其中九百人会和约翰一模一样。
I knew that if you had 1,000 people come in, 900 of those people would be exactly like John.
他们会说：我在这里的网络里看不到其他人，等等。
They'd go, I don't see anyone else here in this network, etcetera.
但我明白，其中一些人——大约十到一百人之间——会意识到：哦，我明白了这个平台的潜力，我想试试看。
But I knew that some of them, somewhere between ten and one hundred of them, would go, oh, I see what this could be, and I kind of want to play with it.
所以我邀请史蒂文。
So I'll invite Steven.
我会邀请一些人加入。
I'll invite some people in.
然后当它缓慢开始发展时，突然间就有了足够多的人。
And then as it very slowly starts going, then all of a sudden there's enough people in.
这很有趣。
It's interesting.
这很奇特。
It's curious.
你可以变得有价值。
And you could grow to being valuable.
因此，我知道通过坚持与那些最初的探索者、好奇者、愿意尝试的人以及理解其愿景的人打交道，所有这些都能帮助我达到最初的临界规模。
So I knew that by persistence through those initial exploratory people, people who are curious, people who want to experiment with it, people who got the vision of it, etcetera, etcetera, that all of that, I could grow to your initial critical mass.
然后它就会启动。
And then it would kick in.
LinkedIn的模式，显然，我今天对LinkedIn的了解比当年——大概是90年代初——要多得多。
The model of LinkedIn, obviously, I know LinkedIn more today than I did back then in what, '90 no.
所以是2002年？
So 2002?
2003年。
2003.
2000年，2003年。
2000, 2003.
然后真正到了大约2003年
And then really, got to Maybe 2003
那时我们把它转向了
is when we turned it
了。
on.
真的吗？
Really?
哇。
Wow.
那时候，它是一个像现在这样的社交网络，有动态消息和人们互相交流，还是更像一个公开的简历？
And back then, was it a social network as it is now where there's a news feed and people are talking to each other, or was it more of a a public CV?
它是一个
It was a
带有搜索功能和与人沟通能力的公开简历。
public CV with a search capability and ability to communicate with people.
好的。
Okay.
有趣。
Interesting.
因此，当时的网络效应没有今天这么重要，因为如今人们使用它不是为了找工作或什么，而是为了谈论自己或分享生活等。
So the network effects were slightly less important than the model is today because a of people today are using it not to search for a job or a but to talk about themselves or to share their life, etcetera.
我们知道网络效应会逐渐增长。
And we knew that we would get to growing network effects.
比如，同样地，海军陆战队、陆军、警察的一部分，你的网络效应可能会发生很大变化。
Like, for example, again, part of the Marines, Army, Police, is your network effects may very much evolve.
你可能一开始没有任何网络效应。
You may start with no network effects.
没关系。
That's fine.
嗯。
Yeah.
但你有计划。
But you have a plan.
是的。
Yes.
嗯。
Yeah.
嗯。
Yeah.
所以我的理解对吗？
So am I right in thinking?
因为那时候，出现了许多专注于人们相互交流的社交网络。
Because around then, there were social networks emerging that were very focused on people conversating with each other.
而领英的设计初衷是，别人是否跟你聊他们那天吃了什么根本无关紧要。
Whereas LinkedIn, by design, it didn't really, really matter if anybody was chatting to you about what they ate for dinner that day.
因此，一个新网络可以进入市场，而无需过度依赖社交互动这一部分。
So a new network could penetrate the market that was less dependent on the, like, social networking component.
因为如果我上去创建一个个人资料并上传我的简历，即使四天不回来也没关系。
Because if I go on there and make a profile and put my CV up, it doesn't really matter if I don't come back for four days.
是的。
Yes.
没错。
Exactly.
因为我会收到一封邮件，提醒我这里有工作机会，从而让我回来。
Because I can get an email that will bring me back in saying, oh, there's a job here.
但一旦我的个人资料上传并准备就绪，我仅仅存在于此就能为整个网络提供价值。
But once my profile is up and ready, I'm now giving value to the rest of the network just by being there.
是的。
Yes.
这是一种优势，而不是缺陷，因为它是我们解决临界规模问题的一部分。
And that's a virtue, not a bug, because it was part of how we solved the critical mass problem.
是的。
Yeah.
我以前一直不明白LinkedIn是怎么做到的，但现在我明白了。
I could never understand how LinkedIn did that, but now it makes sense to me.
因为我总是想，天啊，建立一个社交网络简直是给自己找麻烦。
Because I always think, god, building a social network is asking for hell in your life.
是的。
Yeah.
嗯，我算是这方面的专家。
Well, I'm kind of a specialist.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Right.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道吗，你是Facebook和Friendster最早的投资者之一。
You know, for one of the first investors in Facebook, one of the first investors in Friendster.
哦，对啊。
Oh, right.
我没想到你曾经投资过Friendster
I didn't realize you were gonna invest in Friendster as
嗯。
well.
是的。
Yes.
你是所谓的PayPal黑帮成员之一。
You were part of what they call the PayPal mafia.
我知道你用的是不同的说法。
I know you used a different term.
网络。
Network.
它没那么酷，但我们真不是个犯罪团伙。
It's it's it's less it has less pizzazz, but we weren't really a criminal group.
但黑手党这个词也很酷。
But mafia is cool as well.
是的。
Yes.
人们很喜欢‘黑手党’这个词。
People people love the term mafia.
在那段时间里，你曾与埃隆这样的人共事。
And through that time, you worked with the likes of Elon.
你大学时代就认识彼得·蒂尔。
You knew Peter Thiel from your days at university.
人们总是问这个问题：关于PayPal，为什么它如此成功？为什么这么多PayPal的前员工后来都成了亿万富翁？
I mean, everybody asked this question about PayPal and why it was so successful, but also why so many of the alumni of PayPal went on to become multibillionaires.
我认为，当时参与早期PayPal团队的七个人后来创建了特斯拉、YouTube、Reddit、SpaceX和LinkedIn。
I think seven people that that were part in that sort of part of that sort of early PayPal faming team went on to create Tesla, YouTube, Reddit, SpaceX, LinkedIn.
是人才密度吗？
Was it talent density?
是这一点造就了PayPal黑手党吗？
Was it was that what made the PayPal mafia?
嗯，这肯定是其中一个因素。
Well, it certainly was a component.
所以这涉及好几方面。
And so it's it's it's it's a couple of things.
首先，是那些愿意承担高风险、喜欢做反主流之事、并坚信自己反主流观点的人才高度集中。
So one, that high density talent of folks who are willing to take intensive risks, want to do contrarian things, believe in what their contrarian thing is against common sense wisdom.
这是其中一个方面。
That's one part.
另一个方面是，PayPal上市时正值科技寒冬。
Another part is when PayPal went public, it a technology winter.
那是当年仅有的两家上市科技公司之一。
It was one of two technology companies that went public that year.
哇。
Wow.
对吧？
Right?
然后突然之间，它被eBay收购了。
So all of a sudden and then got bought by eBay.
于是，突然间，这群人才拥有了大量资金，内部网络紧密，并且坚信消费互联网的前景。
So all of a sudden, you had this talent group of people that had a bunch of money in their pockets and the network within and that believed in the consumer internet.
当时，硅谷的圈子认为消费互联网已经没戏了。
So the network of Silicon Valley at that point had thought the consumer internet was played.
他们都在转向清洁能源技术和企业服务领域。
They were going into cleantech and to enterprise.
所以如果你去找风险投资人，说你有个新的消费互联网项目，他们连面都不愿见你。
So if you try to ping a venture capitalist about I have a new consumer in it, they wouldn't even take a meeting with you.
如果是清洁能源领域，他们会愿意开会。
They would take a meeting if it was cleantech.
如果是企业软件，他们也会愿意开会。
They'd take a meeting if it was enterprise software.
现在，所有来自PayPal的人都出来了，说：嘿，我可以自己资助我的初始想法。
Now, then you get all the PayPal people coming out going, hey, I can fund my own initial idea.
我有个很棒的点子，比如YouTube、LinkedIn。
I've got this great idea, YouTube, LinkedIn.
我可以自己出资，把它启动起来。
And I can fund it and I can get it going.
而这正是Web 2.0运动的一部分。
And this then is part of the Web two point zero movement.
我创造了‘Internet 2.0’这个术语，后来蒂姆·奥莱利提出了更好的说法——Web 2.0，但这些人说：不，不，不。
I coined the term Internet two point zero, then Tim O'Reilly made the much better term Web two point And so these folks going, no, no, no.
消费者互联网只是冲上沙滩的第一波浪潮。
The consumer internet is that was just the first wave on the beach.
海啸仍在袭来。
The tsunami is still coming.
所以我们都在积极投资。
And so we were all out investing.
我们彼此交流，因为老实说，我们都觉得这些风投根本不懂。
And we were talking to each other because, frankly, we're like, well, these VCs don't get it.
这股浪潮即将来临。
This is coming.
然后，你开始看到YouTube。
And then, of course, you started seeing YouTube.
你开始看到LinkedIn。
And you started seeing LinkedIn.
你开始看到这些，于是心想：好吧，这些都是我们值得关注并投资的重要事物，这也是为什么——顺便说一句，记得不良竞争。
And you started seeing and it was like, Okay, will these are important things that we're going to invest And that's part of the reason why the because by the way, remember bad competition.
这就是为什么PayPal网络或PayPal黑帮能取得如此巨大成功的原因之一：不仅因为人才和资本，还因为竞争导向。
That's one of the reasons why not just talent, not just capital, but also competitive steering as part of the reason why the PayPal network or the PayPal mafia had such a massive suite of success.
我常常猜测初创企业创始人所面临的商业根本游戏是什么。
I often hazard a guess at what the fundamental game of business is for a startup founder.
我之前曾猜测，那就是招募你所能找到的最优秀的人才，用一种能激发出他们最佳状态的文化将他们凝聚在一起，并为他们设定一个值得追求的愿景。
And I've hazarded a guess before that it's recruiting the best group of people you possibly can, binding them with a culture that gets the best out of them, and setting them a vision that's worthwhile.
但通过阅读你的作品，我发现有几件事。
But from reading your work, there's a couple of things.
而且仅从今天听你讲话来看，销售是如此……呃，不管怎样
And just from hearing you today, sales is so Well, whatever
你的市场进入方式可以是销售、B2B企业等。
your go to market is and it can be sales, B2B enterprise, etcetera.
但比如，在社交网络中，通常是病毒式营销或病毒式增长策略。
But like, for example, in social networks, it's usually a viral marketing or viral growth plan.
所以当我提到销售时，我实际上指的是向
So when I say sales, I actually mean like selling to
哦，没错。
Oh, yes.
员工。
Employees.
100%。
100%.
是的。
Yes.
你必须。
You must.
你提到过合作伙伴、投资者。
You said like partners, investors.
是的。
Yes.
因为你必须认同我的愿景。
Because you have to come on board my vision.
投资我的愿景。
Invest in my vision.
因为顺便说一下，对于初创公司来说，合作伙伴也是在投资你的愿景。
Because by the way, a partner, when you're a startup, is also investing in your vision.
员工也是在投资你的愿景。
An employee is investing in your vision.
你如何才能在这方面做得好？
How do you be good at that?
实际上，你可以教给创业者的能力是有限的，而创业者更多的是通过实践来学习。
There's a limited set of skills that you can actually teach to entrepreneurs versus the entrepreneurs just learning by doing.
其中之一是路演。
One of them is pitching.
其中之一是学会如何传达你的愿景，让别人觉得‘这真的令人兴奋’。
One of them is understanding the how do I communicate my vision in a way that other people can go, that's really exciting.
我想和你一起加入你的愿景。
I want to join your vision with you.
如果我是一个年轻创业者，告诉你：我想提升自己讲述愿景的能力，以便吸引世界级的人才、投资者和合作伙伴加入，你有什么建议告诉我，哪些该做、哪些不该做？
And if I was a young entrepreneur telling you, right, I want to be better at pitching my vision so I can get world class people to join me, world class investors, partners, is there any advice you could give me on things I should and shouldn't do?
哦，是的。
Oh, yeah.
当然。
Absolutely.
顺便说一下，我们整个播客都可以只做这件事。
And by the way, we could spend the entire podcast only doing this.
我的意思是，这里面有很深的内涵。
Mean, there's a very deep well.
但这里有一些简单的建议。
But here's some simple tips.
其中一个常见的错误认知是，人们试图进行现实扭曲。
One is the mistaken lesson that most people learn is to try to do reality distortions.
不，不，不，不。
No, no, no, no.
不，不。
No, no.
用硅芯片来做奶昔。
Silicon chips to make ice cream shakes.
就是这个东西。
It's the thing.
没人想到过。
No one's thought of it.
这事儿可大了。
It's really big.
对吧？
Right?
人们会说：好吧，你让我相信的是你疯了。
And people are like, Okay, what you're convincing me is you're crazy.
对吧？
Right?
你简直就是在说：请现在就走吧。
Like, you're literally like, please leave now.
是的。
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
所以你必须意识到，所有的提案都是对话。
So you have to realize that all pitches are dialogues.
你需要倾听聪明人的意见。
And you want to be listening to smart people.
一般来说，你想要招募的每个人，都是想招募聪明的人。
And you generally speaking, everyone you want to be recruiting, you want to be recruiting smart people.
你希望最顶尖的人才与你共事。
You want the absolute best talent working with you.
你希望最顶尖的人才在你的公司工作。
You want the absolute best talent working in your company.
你希望最顶尖的人才，所以你需要那些有思想、会提出好问题的人。
You want the absolute best so you want people who are thoughtful and asking good questions.
比如，我推销的都是极具雄心的企业。
Like, for example, I pitch insanely aspirational businesses.
但我并不会说，领英一定会成功。
But I don't pitch them saying, oh, LinkedIn is guaranteed to succeed.
在任何可能的宇宙中，领英都将成为职业工作和职业生涯的变革者。
There's no universe in which LinkedIn won't be the transformer of professional work and careers.
我所做的，是说：我们有可能达到这个目标。
What I do is say, it can get here.
我们真的有机会实现这一点。
Like, we have a real chance at this.
现在，我们必须应对这些风险。
Now, we have to navigate these risks.
但如果我们能克服这些风险，我们就能到达那里。
But if we navigate these risks, we're going to be here.
然后人们会说：啊，你很有可信度。
And then people say, ah, you're credible.
你有一个宏大的愿景。
You have a huge vision.
你很有说服力。
You're compelling.
我认为你能做到。
I think you can do this.
然后他们就会加入你。
And then they come on board with you.
所以其中一点是，既要描绘宏大的愿景，又要表明你清楚实现目标的困难。
So one of it is to pitch the huge vision but show that you're aware of the difficulties of getting there.
当然，你不需要逐一详述所有困难。
Now, you don't have to go through all of them.
你只需要提及足够多，或一个足够重大的困难，让对方觉得：好吧，很好。
You just have to go through enough of them or a big enough one that the person goes, Okay, great.
我明白了。
I get it.
你正在看清它。
You're seeing it.
另一部分是说，竞争之所以重要，是因为我明白自己在玩什么游戏。
Another part of it is to say this is part of the reason why competition is important is I understand what game I'm playing.
这是我的理论。
Here is my theory.
这就是竞争所起的作用。
This is what competition plays in.
这就是我认为市场会青睐我的原因。
This is why I think the market will favor me.
这就是我认为技术趋势会青睐我的原因。
This is why I think technology trends will favor me.
这就是我认为我拥有独特优势的原因。
This is why I think I have a very unique edge.
在《闪电式扩张》中，我认为这也是你提到的另一本书，大多数消费互联网项目都是我们所说的‘Glengarry Glen Ross’式市场，即头奖是一辆凯迪拉克，二奖是一套餐刀，三奖是你被开除了。
And in Blitzscaling, which I think is another book on your thing, most consumer internet plays are what we call Glengarry Glen Ross markets, which is first prize is a Cadillac, second prize is steak knives, and third prize is you're fired.
所以你必须说服别人，为什么你可能是第一个。
So you have to be pitching why you're possibly first.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Right.
因为最终只会有一两个赢家。
Because there's only going be a couple of winners.
没错。
Yes.
这就是为什么我们能赢。
And so this is why we can win.
现在， pitching 中还有一些技巧，就是如何讲述这个故事。
And so now, there's also mechanics in pitching, which is how do you tell a story of it.
我告诉创业者的一点是，即使对方没有问风险，也要主动说明潜在风险以及你如何应对，因为这能建立信任。
Part of the thing I tell entrepreneurs is to, even if the person doesn't ask you the risk, tell them what the risks are and how you're navigating them because it'll establish trust.
例如，在寻求投资时，我之前并不知道这种 pitching 的技巧——创业者通常认为，只有当我准备好幻灯片、敲开大门说‘给我点钱’的时候，才该开始谈钱。
So for example, in pitching investment now this I didn't know until I started learning it in terms of a mechanic pitching is and entrepreneurs tend to go, oh, when I need money is when I write up my PowerPoint and I knock on the door and say, hey, give me some money.
这种时候才开始对话，是非常愚蠢的。
That's a foolish time to start the conversation.
更好的做法是在你并不需要钱的时候，就开启对话。
Much better to start the conversation when you're not saying, give me money.
因此，在所有这些事情上，尽可能在你接近任何潜在合同——无论是合作、投资，甚至雇佣合同——之前，就早早开始对话。
So as much as you can in all of these things, start the conversation well before you're getting to a potential contract of any sort, a partnership or an investment or even an employment contract.
比如，永远都在招聘。
Like, for example, always be recruiting.
这并不意味着‘我现在就想雇你’。
Doesn't mean, oh, I want to hire you right now.
而是说，找到优秀的人才。
It's like, Okay, find great talent.
这是我从 SocialNet 学到并带到 PayPal 的经验之一。
This is one of the things I learned from SocialNet and brought into PayPal.
找到优秀人才，即使现在没有合适的职位可以雇佣他们，也要开始与他们交流。
Great talent and start talking to them even if today you don't have the right position to hire them.
当然，市场上有很多优秀的人才。
Now, obviously, there's a whole bunch of great talent.
但你可能会浪费大量时间。
You could waste a whole bunch of time.
你应该与那些你非常希望他们能在不远的将来加入你的人交流，或者他们认识其他类似的人。
You want to be talking to people that you either really would love them to join at some point not too distant future, or they know other people who would be like that.
因为，顺便说一句，当你遇到优秀人才时，你会意识到这一点，因为你一直在不断吸纳新的优秀人才。
Because, by the way, part of when you meet great talent, you realize how to because you're always adding new great talent.
你会想，天啊，我们需要这样的人。
You're like, oh my god, we need people like this.
我们该怎么把他们请进来？
How do we bring them in?
比如，我从SocialNet学到并带到PayPal的一点是，在SocialNet时，我试图招聘那些拥有十年以上相关工作经验的人。
So for example, one of the things I learned that was from SocialNet that I brought to PayPal was at SocialNet, I was trying to hire people who had ten plus years experience doing the thing that we were hiring them to do before.
因为商学院传授的经典智慧是确保他们的简历上有相关经验。
Because the classic kind of wisdom that you get from business schools is make sure they have experience on their CV.
看，他们必须能够胜任这份工作，对吧？
Look, they have to be able to do the job, right?
毫无疑问。
No question.
但如果你看重的是两年经验加上极快的学习曲线，那会更好。
But if you said two years of experience and an insane learning curve, that's much better.
极快的学习曲线。
An insane learning curve.
你的意思是，那些快速学习的人，对吧？
By that, you mean someone that's rapidly learning Yes.
自学能力。
Self teaching.
对。
Yes.
好的。
Okay.
在工作中学习，去探索并弄清楚。
And learning on the job and going and figuring it out.
当我加入PayPal时，公司刚成立，我是董事会成员。
And so when I went to PayPal, and when the company was founded, I was on the board of directors.
我当时想，你要找的正是这种人，而不是那种人。
I was like, this is what you're looking for, not this.
所以回到你关于PayPal黑手党的问题，那是因为我们招聘了这样的人。
And so back to your PayPal mafia question, that's because we hired those kind of people.
有意思。
Interesting.
公司里只有极少数人拥有超过两年的支付或银行业工作经验，因为我们需要的是学习曲线。
There was a very limited set of people in the company who had had more than a couple of years experience working within payments, within banking, within because it was the learning curve.
当你
When you
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