全球顶级投资专家：重大转变即将来临，这项投资五年内或翻15倍！——凯茜·伍德

我认为我们行业中的许多人将会失业，因为这个行业已经变得毫无意义了——我不该这么说，这根本不对。

Many people in our business I think are going to be out of jobs because the business has become really nothing I shouldn't be this disrespectful and it's not quite right at all.

但太多人只是盲目追随基准，无论是标普500、摩根士丹利国际世界指数还是纳斯达克，这些机器都能做到。

But so many are just hugging benchmarks whether it's S and P five hundred or MSCI World or the NASDAQ that a machine can do that.

机器可以轻松完成这些工作。

A machine can do that easily.

而被动投资正是这样——由机器来操作。

And that is what passive investing is, is machines doing it.

我认为，要在新世界中赢得一席之地，你必须创造远超机器的价值。

I think in order to earn a place in the new world, you've got to add a lot of value, More value than a machine can.

因此，我们的做法是：我们的股票并不在那些基准指数之中。

So in our case we're saying, Okay, well our stocks are not in those benchmarks.

所以我们进行原创研究，试图找出那些将改变世界的公司，了解它们是谁、在哪里。

And therefore, we are doing original research trying to figure out who they are and where they are, these companies that are going to transform the world.

为什么AI不能取代你正在做的这些工作呢？

Why can't AI replace what you're doing in terms of?

我们一直在思考这个问题。

And we think about that all the time.

所以AI可以使用模式识别。

So AI can use pattern recognition.

这完全基于历史，对吧？

It's all based on history, right?

它可能通过模式识别来完成我们正在做的事情。

It can use pattern recognition maybe to do what we're doing.

对我们而言，定义一个创新平台的三个特征是什么？

What are the three characteristics that define an innovation platform for us?

最重要的是，它们遵循所谓的赖特定律，该定律衡量学习曲线，即新技术成本下降的速度。

The most important one is they follow something called Wright's Law, which measures the learning curve, how fast the costs are going to decline with this new technology.

技术具有通缩性。

Technology is deflationary.

成本会随着时间下降，并以更低的价格或更好的性能体现出来，至少其一。

Costs fall over time and they're passed through into lower prices or better performance, one or the other.

这是最重要的。

That is the most important.

机器一定能弄清楚这一点，我肯定。

A machine can figure that out, I'm sure.

但提出问题将会很重要。

But asking the questions are going to be important.

在2014年我们启动ARC之前，几乎没有关于自动驾驶出行或电动垂直起降飞行器，甚至人工智能的讨论。

Like there wasn't before 2014 when we started ARC much on autonomous mobility or eVTOLs or, for that matter, AI.

人工智能曾被视为科幻。

AI had become science fiction.

近年来没有任何突破性进展。

There weren't any breakthroughs in recent years.

但后来我们取得了一些突破。

But then we got some breakthroughs.

Wright定律是第一个。

Wright's law is the first.

找出成本曲线的下降趋势，看看这项技术如何迅速在各个行业普及。

Figure out that cost curve decline and see how quickly the technology can proliferate across sectors.

这是另一个标准。

That's the other criterion here.

我们所关注的技术将跨越经济领域，适用于多个群体。

The technologies that we are following are going to cut across economic sectors and apply to more than one group of people.

第三点是，这些技术可以作为新技术的跳板。

And then the third is that these technologies serve as launching pads for new technologies.

以DNA测序为例，作为基础技术，我们在CRISPR基因编辑技术出现之前就需要它。

So in the case of DNA sequencing, which was the base technology, we needed that before CRISPR gene editing could be created.

我们需要能够理解基因组中哪些部分发生了突变，哪些是编程错误，这样基因编辑才能介入并修正这些编程错误。

We needed to be able to understand what was mutating in the genome, where the programming errors were, so that gene editing could come in and edit out those programming errors.

你认为五年或十年后，失业率会更高还是更低？

And do you think in five, ten years from now that unemployment is going to be higher or lower?

在五年或十年后，假设我们没有政策失误和经济衰退，仅考虑平稳状态，我认为失业率会保持不变或更低。

In five or ten years, let's assume we don't have a policy mistake and a recession, so just steady state, I think it will be the same or lower.

而这大部分是因为婴儿潮一代正在退休。

And most of this is because those baby boomers are retiring.

所以他们退出了就业市场。

So they come out of the employment.

他们退出了劳动力队伍。

They come out of the labor force.

而他们之后的世代规模更小。

And the generations following them are smaller.

甚至现在，我们正经历婴儿潮后代的阶段，也就是婴儿潮一代的孩子们。

Even now what's happening is we're passing through the baby boom echo, meaning the children of the baby boom.

这一代人我认为并没有比婴儿潮一代的人数更多。

That cohort wasI don't think it was any bigger than the baby boom population.

你认为由于人工智能的速度和加速发展，职业生涯的长度已经大幅缩短了吗？

Do you think there's because of the speed and the acceleration of AI, the length of careers has radically reduced?

因为你去上学，然后上大学，成为会计师，这个过程大约需要十年到十五年。

Because you go to school, then you go to university, you qualify as an accountant, And that's like a ten, fifteen year process.

你当上会计师后，就开始逐步晋升。

You get a job as an accountant, you start working your way up.

但现在随着人工智能的兴起，这些工作正被迅速彻底地消灭。

But now with AI coming in, these some of these jobs are being completely annihilated extremely quickly.

与此同时，即兴编程正蓬勃发展。

At the same time, vibe coding

是的。

Yeah.

正在蓬勃发展。

Is booming.

所以，我认为接下来会发生的事——这将极大地提升生产率——我们会看到更多实验，人们更愿意为自己冒险。

So, I think what's going to happenand this will be very healthy for productivitywe're going to have a lot more experimentation and people taking risks on themselves.

也许我们所熟知的公司形态将发生根本性变化。

And maybe this idea of a corporation as we know it is going to change radically.

你知道，加密货币正在推动分布式自治组织的发展。

You know, crypto is enabling distributed autonomous organizations.

就像比特币一样，没有人来管理它，对吧？

Just like Bitcoin, there's no one governing it, right?

它是一个分布式网络。

It's a distributed network.

让我们看看这些技术如何发展，以及振动编程和人工智能如何融入数字资产领域——我不再称它为加密货币了，因为这实际上应该被称为数字资产世界，这样更合法化。

And let's see how these do and how vibe coding and AI integrate into the crypto and I'm going to stop calling it crypto because this really should be called digital assets world, which legitimizes it more.

加密货币听起来很可疑。

Crypto sounds nefarious.

数字资产是年轻人投入时间的地方，我会说，年轻人将超过一半的可支配时间花在了线上。

Digital assets is where young people and I'll say young people are spending more than half of their discretionary, their free time online.

因此，线上财产所有权变得越来越重要。

And so property ownership online is becoming more important.

人们花时间的方式正在使它合法化。

It's being legitimized by the way people are spending their time.

关于机器人和人工智能这一点，我认为你最大的持仓是特斯拉，对吧，在你的基金里？

On this point of robotics and AI, your your biggest position, I believe, is Tesla, isn't it, in your fund?

是的。

Yes.

但显然，埃隆决定要从政。

But obviously, Elon decided that he wanted to go into politics.

他想

And he wanted to do

哦，埃隆。

Oh, Elon.

名为DOGE的政府效率部。

The Department of Government Efficiency called DOGE.

因此与特朗普合作，试图消除政府浪费。

So teaming up with Trump to try and eliminate government waste.

作为投资者，你肯定不喜欢这一点。

Now as an investor, you must not love that.

嗯，我有两个有

Well, I have two have

因为它确实产生了影响

because it did impact

观点。

points of view.

表现

Performance

了公司。

of the company.

你知道吗，我去美国时开的是特斯拉。

Do you know, I have I drive a Tesla when I go to America.

而且在去年一月去美国的那次旅行中，是第一次。

And it was the first time ever on the last trip to America in January.

我现在住在洛杉矶。

I live in LA now.

哦。

Oh.

我开车的是我的，你知道的，Cybertruck。

Where I'm driving my, you know, my Cybertruck.

它是全自动驾驶的。

It's full self driving.

太不可思议了。

It's incredible.

但那是我第一次想，我是不是可能会被袭击，所以也许我不该买Cybertruck。

But it was the first time ever I thought, should I like, I could be attacked, so I probably shouldn't get a Cybertruck.

我应该买点别的，因为我听说了太多关于人们被袭击的报道。

I should probably get something else because I had all these reports of people being attacked.

嗯。

Mhmm.

所以在听了今年第一季度的财报后，我觉得挺有意思的，我听了那次财报电话会，发现收入、盈利能力、车辆销量增长等都在下滑，我认为就连埃隆在那次电话会上也指出，这是他涉足政治的后果。

And so it was quite interesting to hear in the earnings report, which I listened to, that there's been this decline in revenue, in profitability, in vehicle sales growth, etcetera, in Q1 of this year, which I think even Elon in that earnings call highlights is a consequence of him becoming political.

是的。

Yes.

我觉得这让他感到惊讶。

I think that surprised him.

对此我有很多想法。

So I have many thoughts about this.

我们的政府变得过于臃肿了。

Our government has become so bloated.

这很可怕。

It is scary.

我们的债务正在增长。

And our indebtedness is growing.

如果我们想继续保持世界储备货币的地位，我们就面临失去它的风险。

And if we want to remain the reserve currency of the world, we're at risk of losing it.

而在我们身后，整个数字资产领域正紧追不舍，对吧？

And on our tail is the whole digital asset world, right?

所以政府支出就是征税。

So government spending is taxation.

这要么是立即发生的税收，要么是未来发生的税收，要么是通过通货膨胀实现的税收，而通货膨胀是最具累退性的税种。

It's either taxation that's going to happen immediately or will happen in the future or will happen through inflation, which is the most regressive tax at all.

所以我认为，当初进入并了解技术能为政府做些什么的这种情绪是正确的，而这正是正在发生的事情。

So I think the sentiment was right in terms of getting in there and seeing what technology can do for the government, which is really what's happening.

我正在关注FDA，看他们如何开始使用人工智能。

I'm watching it in the FDA, how they're starting to use AI.

正在发生的事情真是太惊人了。

It's phenomenal what's happening.

所以我通常被问到的问题是。

So the question I usually get.

因此，我很高兴的是，解决方案的一半在于理解问题，有人正以这种专注和决心投入其中。

So I'm very happy that half of the solution is understanding the problem, that someone is in there with that focus and determination.

当然，他已经表示这个月将退出，实际上是为了花更多时间陪伴他的公司。

He, of course, has said he's stepping away this month, as a matter of fact, to spend more time with his companies.

你一定为此感到高兴。

Which you must be happy about.

当然，我对此感到高兴。

Well, of course, I'm happy about it.

但除了这种政治动态外，我认为埃隆没有每天亲自参与并不是第一季度问题的根源。

But I have with the exception of this political dynamic, I don't think that Elon not being there on a day to day basis is what has caused the problem in the first quarter.

这更多是宏观因素造成的。

It was much more macro.

第一季度实际GDP增长为负。

We had a negative quarter in real GDP growth in the first quarter.

所以是宏观因素影响了所有人，再加上这种政治动态的影响。

So macro, which is hitting everyone, and the overlay of this political dynamic.

幸运的是，新闻周期变化很快。

The news cycle, thank goodness, moves fast.

我认为我们很快就会度过这一阶段。

And so we'll be through that, I think.

顺便说一下，这个周末甚至有新闻报道称，那些曾对他在狗狗币和政党问题上的立场感到担忧的人，现在态度有所转变，因为税收将下调，政府支出变得更加克制。

And by the way, there are news reports even this weekend saying those who were feeling about him as it relates to Doge and one party are having a change of heart because tax rates are going to come down because we're being more disciplined on the government spending side.

埃隆管理他的公司的方式是吸引最优秀、最聪明的人才，不仅包括科学家和工程师，还包括商业人士。

Elon's way of managing his companies is to attract the best and the brightest, not only scientists, engineers, but also business people.

这些人渴望解决世界上最具挑战性的问题。

These are people who want to solve the hardest problems in the world.

他会设定一个对他而言合理的里程碑时间表。

He sets a timeline that seems reasonable to him for milestones to occur.

除非他们开始错过这些里程碑或时间点，否则他不会干预。

And he doesn't interfere unless they start missing those milestones or the timing of those milestones.

那时他才会介入。

Then he gets involved.

于是你就会听到他进入公司后大规模裁员，让项目重新走上正轨。

And that's where you hear he'll go in and he'll fire people wholesale and get the program going again.

他确实在特斯拉这样做过。

And he's done that certainly at Tesla.

他在他所有的公司都这样做过。

He's done that at all of his companies.

所以他实际上是首席问题解决者。

And so he's really troubleshooter in chief.

一旦他理解并制定了战略，他就成为首席问题解决者。

Once he understands and has set a strategy, he then becomes troubleshooter in chief.

你见过他吗？

Have you met him?

哦，是的，我们确实见过。

Oh yes, we did actually.

我们第一次和他做播客是在2019年。

Our first podcast with him was in 2019.

那时正处于生产地狱中。

During production hell.

我们当时非常高兴。

And we were so happy.

正如你所知，我们有一个社交媒体策略。

So, as you know, we have a social strategy.

因此，我们会通过社交媒体发布我们的研究，无论是免费分享还是不断改进时。

So we push our research out through social media as we give it away or as we're evolving it.

他喜欢塔莎·基尼当时发布的一份关于自动驾驶的研究。

And he liked a piece of research that Tasha Keeney had put out on autonomous back then.

我当时正在打电话。

And I was on a phone call.

我脱不开身。

I couldn't get off.

但我听到办公室里传来欢呼和尖叫。

But I heard this whooping and screaming through the office.

我觉得这听起来不错。

And I thought it sounded good.

这并不是紧急情况。

It wasn't an emergency.

所以我没必要挂掉那个电话。

So I didn't have to leave that call.

但我出去后问：发生什么事了？

But I got out and I said, What happened?

埃隆！

Elon!

于是我让他问问我们能不能做个播客。

And I said, Okay, ask him if we can do a podcast.

我们下周就去了。

And we were there the next week.

哦，太不可思议了。

Oh, incredible.

是啊。

Yeah.

你觉得他作为一个企业家怎么样？

What do you think of him as an entrepreneur?

我认为他在创新智慧方面是我们这个时代的托马斯·爱迪生。

I think he's the Thomas Edison of our age in terms of his innovative ingenuity.

而且我见过他好几次，我认为他是个非常好的人。

And I also think, having met him a number of times, I think he's a very good person.

他想做正确的事。

He wants to do the right thing.

如果非让我选一句话，他想做正确的事，以改变绝大多数人类的命运。

If I had to say one thing, he wants to do the right thing to transform the lot of most of humanity.

他从特斯拉、SpaceX和特斯拉开始。

And he started with Tesla, SpaceX and Tesla.

特斯拉是一项环保举措，我认为许多攻击他汽车的人，虽然可能非常支持环保运动，但他们已经忘记了。

Tesla was an environmental move which I think a lot of people attacking his cars who are probably very supportive of the environmental movement, they've forgotten.

将火箭送往火星，搭载类人机器人，最终运送人类，他认为这也将改变地球上的生活。

Sending a rocket to Mars with humanoid robots and ultimately people, he thinks will transform life on Earth as well.

因为正如我们从航天历史中学到的，我们在解决这些极其困难的问题时所学到的材料科学和技术，也将帮助我们地球上的生活。

Because as we've learned from space history, what we learn about material science and technologies that help us break through into these very difficult problems to solve is going to help us here on Earth as well.

所以我认为他是个非常好的人，想做正确的事。

So I think he's a very good person and wants to do the right thing.

如果要我形容他，这就是我的说法，除了他是我们这个时代的大师。

If I had to describe him, that's what I say, other than genius of our time.

我常常在想，因为他通过自己创立的公司对世界产生了深远的影响。

I often wonder, because he's had such profound impact on the world in many, many ways through the companies he started.

我认为最大的风险其实是他自己的健康。

I think the biggest risk really is just his own health.

他似乎睡得很少。

He doesn't seem to sleep much.

你知道，他说他确实睡觉。

You know, says that he does sleep.

我认为他建议——如果我没记错的话——每晚睡七个小时。

I think he recommends, I think, if I'm right on this, getting seven hours sleep a night.

是的，但当他专注时，你就能看出来。

And yes, but when he is focused you know it.

我的意思是，人们甚至都会注意到。

I mean people even look.

有很多他的照片，无论是他与其他政策制定者站在一起的画面。

There were many pictures of him, whether it was standing with other policymakers.

然后他会专注于某件事。

And then he zones into something.

你知道，一旦他进入状态，就只想着那一件事和他想要解决的问题。

And you know he's zoned in and thinking about only that and a problem that he wants to solve.

你投资了特斯拉，大约20亿美元？

You've invested, what, just over $2,000,000,000 in Tesla?

让我想想。

Let's see.

所以，大致上说是的。

So it would be roughly yes.

在那个范围内？

In that region?

比特币。

Bitcoin.

你很早就投资了比特币。

You invested in Bitcoin very, very early.

你最初买比特币的价格是多少？

What was the first price that you bought Bitcoin for?

我想是2015年吧？

And I think it was 2015?

是的。

Yes.

那是在2015年。

It was in the 2015.

我们大约在250美元时入场，现在大概是104,000美元。

We got in at roughly $250 Today it's $104,000 I think roughly.

所以我们确实入场得很早。

So we did get in very early.

当人们嘲笑我们，说‘这只是一个营销手段’时，我们就知道我们抓住了真正重要的东西。

And we knew we were on to something really when people were making fun of us saying, Okay, that's a marketing trick.

你刚进入我们的行业，对新的基金世界还不熟悉，正在努力吸引关注。

You're new to our business new to the new fund world and you're trying to attract attention.

我们当时想，天啊，他们根本不知道我们为此做了多少研究。

And we were thinking, Wow, they have no idea how much research we've done on this.

我的南加州大学教授阿特·拉弗，我们让他阅读了我们关于比特币的第一份白皮书。

And Art Laffer, my professor again from USC, we had him read our first white paper on Bitcoin.

比特币能否胜任货币的三种职能？

Bitcoin, could it serve the three roles of money?

即交易媒介——我们每天用来买东西的工具，价值储存——像黄金一样，以及计价单位。

So means of exchange, what we use every day to buy things, store of value like gold, and unit of account.

价格会以比特币来标价吗？

Would prices be quoted in terms of Bitcoin?

克里斯·布鲁迪斯基是我们第一位比特币分析师，他撰写了这篇论文，阿特阅读后，极大地丰富了其中的经济理论，这对我们来说非常有帮助。

Chris Brudisky was our first analyst on Bitcoin, wrote the paper, Art read it, and added to it enormously in terms of economic theory, which was great for us.

然后他对我说，这正是我自1971年美国关闭黄金窗口以来一直在等待的：一种像布雷顿森林体系下的金汇兑本位制那样的规则导向的全球货币体系。

And then he said to us, he said, This is what I've been waiting for since The US closed the gold window in 1971, a rules based global monetary system like Bretton Woods under the gold exchange standard.

我说，阿特，这是个非常宏大的想法。

And I said, Art, that's a very big idea.

有多大呢？

How big is it?

他说，那美国的货币基础有多大？

And he said, Well, how big is the monetary base of The US?

当时，美国的货币基础是4.5万亿美元，而比特币的市值或网络价值是60亿美元，我说，好吧，这确实是个非常宏大的想法。

Back then, it was $4,500,000,000,000 And Bitcoin's market cap or network value was $6,000,000,000 And I said, Okay, that's a very big idea.

我们当时正试图将其纳入我们的投资组合。

And we were trying to get it into our portfolios.

监管机构对此持谨慎态度。

Regulators were hesitant.

但我当时就为自己买入了，并且一直持有至今。

But I bought it right then for myself and haven't sold it.

我对它非常满意。

And I'm very happy with it.

你是为自己个人买的吗？

You bought it for yourself personally?

我个人买的。

Personally.

因为我们当时买不到。

Because we couldn't buy it.

美元2.50。

Dollars $2.50.

所以我们当时买不到。

So we couldn't buy it back then.

但最终我们通过了监管流程。

But we finally got through the regulatory process.

纽约证券交易所表示：好吧，你们可以在投资组合中持有1%的仓位。

And we were able to put the New York Stock Exchange said, Okay, you can put a 1% position in the portfolio.

这是一个名为GBTC的委托信托。

And it was of a grantor trust called GBTC.

所以我们这么做了。

So we did.

而且我们一直没卖。

And we just never sold it.

他们没告诉我们必须保持在1%。

They didn't tell us we had to keep it at 1%.

哦，它已经涨得更多了。

Oh, it's risen to be more.

是的，它大幅增长了。

Yes, it ballooned.

那么，你认为比特币为什么对普通人来说一直是一个好的投资机会？

And what is it about Bitcoin that you believe was and is still a good investment opportunity for the average person?

是的。

Yes.

所以按价格计算，它的市值约为2万亿美元。

So at price, it's about a $2,000,000,000,000 market cap.

而达到最初4.5万亿美元的一半时，我们的价格目标实际上已经扩大了，因为它不仅仅是一个全球货币体系。

And so halfway to that original $4,500,000,000,000 But our price target actually has expanded since then because it's not just a global monetary system.

它是一个全新的资产类别。

It is a new asset class.

这也是一个非常宏大的理念。

And that's a very big idea as well.

什么才能构成一个全新的资产类别？

What makes a new asset class?

自17世纪股票出现以来，我们再也没有真正诞生过一个新的资产类别。

And we haven't had one truly since equities in the 1600s.

当你说到一个全新的资产类别时，你的意思是完全新的类别

When you say a new asset class, you mean a completely new category

用于为公司融资。

Of funding companies.

对吗？

Right?

所以一个

So an

资产类别就像是科技是一种资产类别，对吧？

asset class would be something like technology is an asset class, right?

不，资产类别指的是股票、债券、商品、房地产。

No, it would be like stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate.

这是一个新的资产类别。

This is a new asset class.

大多数人会同意这一点。

And most people will agree with that.

我们对此做了一项研究。

We did a study on it.

如果这种资产的表现不同于其他资产，也就是说，它能为基金提供分散风险的作用。

If this asset does not perform like other assets, in other words, it provides diversification for funds.

由于它的行为方式不同，机构必须考虑它，因为它们彼此之间在竞争。

And because it is behaving differently, institutions have to consider it because they're competing against each other.

如果有人将其纳入，所有人都知道他们彼此之间在竞争。

And if one puts it in, they all know they're competing against each other.

所以其他人也必须考虑它。

So others have to consider it.

我们相信这部分机会尚未被发掘。

And we believe that part of the opportunity has not been tapped.

为了给这个问题一些数字依据，目前流通中的比特币数量已接近2000万枚。

And just to put some numbers on this, right now, we're approaching 20,000,000 Bitcoin outstanding.

这意味着什么？

Which means?

这是指由比特币矿工随着时间推移所挖出的比特币总数。

The number of Bitcoin that have been minted over time by Bitcoin miners.

所以总共有2100万枚，对吧？

So there's 21,000,000 in total, right?

在挖矿过程结束时，比特币总量将达到2100万枚。

There will be at the end of the minting process, 21,000,000.

所以我们还差一百万美元。

So we have only $1,000,000 to go.

一百万美元是多少？

Dollars 1,000,000 would be what is that?

这价值大约一千亿美元，现在还多一点。

That would be $100,000,000,000 worth, a little more than that right now.

所以对于那些对比特币不太了解的人来说。

So just for someone that might not know much about Bitcoin.

比特币是通过计算机挖矿产生的。

Bitcoin is mined using computers.

到目前为止，他们已经挖出了两千万个。

And so far, they've mined 20,000,000 of them.

还剩一百万个待挖。

And there's 1,000,000 of them left to mine.

因此，机构真正开始考虑比特币，是因为证券交易委员会在今年一月批准了现货比特币ETF，给了比特币绿灯。

So institutions really just started considering Bitcoin because the SEC gave the green light to Bitcoin with the approval of the Spot Bitcoin ETF in January.

机构需要很长时间来做研究并做出承诺。

And it takes a while for institutions to do their research and commit.

所以他们现在才开始承诺。

And so they're just now committing.

将只创造1000亿美元的新市值，而他们管理的资金高达数万亿美元。

And there's only $100,000,000,000 of new market cap that is going to be created, whereas they have trillions of dollars under management.

因此，我们认为将会有大量的增量需求。

And so, we think there will be a lot of incremental demand.

为了满足这些需求，有人必须卖出。

And to satisfy a lot of that demand, someone's going to have to sell.

这意味着价格会上涨。

Which means the price goes up.

而如果人们不想卖出，因为比特币的表现一直非常好。

Which, yeah, if people don't want to sell because Bitcoin's been awfully good.

我们目前的预测是，比特币价格在10万到10.5万美元之间。

And our forecast right now, the Bitcoin's around 100,000, 105,000.

我们对2030年的预测是150万美元，这一预测的三大基石分别是机构层面（才刚刚开始）、价值储存或数字黄金。

Our forecast for 2030 is $1,500,000 And we do that the building blocks for that, the three biggest building blocks are institutional, which has barely started store of value or digital gold.

年轻人对数字黄金的接受度远高于传统黄金。

Young people are much more comfortable with digital gold than gold.

所以在机构层面，这意味着投资机构将开始投资比特币。

So on the institutional side, that means institutions, investment institutions start investing in it.

年轻人也将把比特币作为储蓄和存储财富的方式。

Young people start investing in it as a way to save and store their money.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

还有一个非常重要但很多人忽视的使用场景，那就是比特币和由美元支持的稳定币的重要性。

And then the very important use case that many people do not discuss is how important Bitcoin and stablecoins, which are backed by U.

美。

S.

美国国债将变得对新兴市场至关重要。

Treasuries, are going to become to the emerging markets.

在新兴市场中，许多国家的政策制定者缺乏财政和货币政策的纪律性。

In emerging markets, many of them are at the whim of policymakers who show no discipline in fiscal or monetary policy.

因此，他们习惯了经历繁荣与衰退，然后由国际货币基金组织出手救助。

And so they're used to going through booms and busts and booms and bailed out by the IMF.

他们需要一份保险。

And they need an insurance policy.

所以如果你在委内瑞拉，你需要一种能够保持稳定的货币。

So if you're in Venezuela, you need a currency that's going to be Exactly.

比特币和稳定币相对于美元是稳定的。

Well, this Bitcoin isso stablecoins are stable vis a vis the dollar.

比特币更像是一种投资，因为它会随着时间增值。

Bitcoin is more of an investment because it does appreciate over time.

当然，它的价格波动很大，这一点毫无疑问。

Now, go through, it's volatile, no question.

这是人们必须了解的第一件事。

And that's the first thing people have to know about it.

但随着越来越多的投资者持有比特币，它的波动性正在降低。

But it is becoming less volatile as more and more investors hold it.

所以你认为比特币在未来五年内可能增值15倍吗？

So you think Bitcoin will potentially multiply in value by 15 times in the next five years?

哇，那可太疯狂了。

Wow, that'd be pretty crazy.

这是一个非常宏大的理念，因为它是一个全新的资产类别。

It's a very big idea because it is a new asset class.

它代表了一种与其他任何数字资产都不同的全球货币体系。

It does represent a global monetary system unlike any other digital asset out there.

它由世界上最大的计算机网络支持。

It is backed by the largest computer network in the world.

作为基础层的一层，从未被黑客攻击过。

The layer one, which is the base layer, has not been hacked.

想想这一点。

Think about that.

自2009年发布以来，从未被黑过。

Since 2009 when it was released, not been hacked.

有多少系统能做到这一点？

How many systems can say that?

这是一项技术。

And it is a technology.

它是原生于互联网的。

It is native to the internet.

而且，数字资产，无论是比特币、以太坊、索拉纳，它们之所以存在，都是因为它们试图成为互联网的原生货币，支持智能合约，并真正变革金融服务行业。

And again, digital assets or any Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, all of them exist because they're vying to be the native currencies to the internet and to enable smart contracts and really transform the financial services industry.

你为什么投资了Coinbase？

Why did you invest in Coinbase?

Coinbase是一个数字资产交易平台，越来越多地涉及衍生品。

Coinbase is an exchange for digital assets increasingly derivatives.

它已经走向全球。

It has gone global.

它刚刚收购了Deribit，这是全球最大的期权交易所。

It just bought Derabit, which is the largest options exchange out there.

它还拥有期货业务。

And it owns the futures.

因此，它正在大力进军衍生品市场，那里有巨大的活动量，这非常好，因为它正在为数字资产正名。

So it's really going after the derivatives market where there's a huge amount of activity, which is fantastic because it's all legitimizing digital assets.

它是全球最符合监管要求的交易所。

And it is the most regulatory compliant exchange in the world.

币安是另一家主要交易所，但与全球各地的监管机构多次发生冲突，实际上并未被允许进入美国。

Binance is another major exchange but has had more run ins with regulators around the world and really hasn't been allowed into The United States.

它还希望成为新的支付基础设施的一部分，因此也在朝这个方向调整战略。

It also wants to become part of the new payments infrastructure and so is evolving strategies that way as well.

我们对管理层非常了解。

We've gotten to know management very well.

他们以一种非凡的方式与监管机构进行了斗争。

They fought the fight against regulators in a magnificent way.

他们还教育了政策制定者，重要的是，这些政策制定者意识到，我们几乎因为自身的监管立场而失去了这项创新。

And they have educated policymakers, importantly, who understand that this innovation we almost lost this innovation to the rest of the world because of our regulatory stance.

他们帮助政策制定者理解，这项基础设施正是开发者在20世纪90年代初没有构建到互联网中的东西，因为他们当时并不知道金融和商业会在此发生。

They've helped policymakers understand that, hey, this infrastructure is what developers did not build into the internet in the early '90s because they didn't know finance or commerce would take place.

这一切就是如此。

That's all this is.

就这么简单，对吧？

It's that simple, right?

所以，如果我想投资，简单总结一下，如果我想投资人工智能，你主要关注的公司是特斯拉。

So if I'm trying to invest in just to summarize it, if I'm trying to invest in AI, your key positions there and your key thoughts are companies like Tesla.

我听说你投资了Twilio。

I heard you invest in Twilio.

我们曾经投资过Twilio。

We had invested in Twilio.

他们经历了管理层更替，所以我们退出了。

They had management turnover, so we moved away from that.

但Palantir。

But Palantir.

Palantir。

Palantir.

是的。

Yes.

Palantir是一家平台即服务公司，我们认为它不仅将帮助政府步入数字时代，比如我们的国防部，现在正扩展到其他部门。

Palantir is a platform as a service company, which we think is not only going to help governments move into the digital age, like our Defense Department and now it's moving into other departments.

同时也适用于这些庞大的企业，因为它并不强迫它们彻底替换现有系统。

But also these huge, huge enterprises because it's not forcing them to rip and replace anything.

它们可以在现有技术基础设施之上进行构建，随着时间推移逐步取代传统技术的角色。

They'll build on top of whatever technology infrastructure is there and over time just usurp the role of the legacy technologies.

因此，我们认为这是一家在数字时代非常重要的公司。

So very important company, we think, in the digital age.

它的涨幅非常大。

It's had a very big run.

我们已经获利了结。

We have taken profits.

在它大幅上涨的同时，英伟达却在下跌。

And while it was having a big run, Nvidia was selling off.

它的股价下跌了超过50%。

It was down more than 50%.

因此，我们将部分帕兰蒂尔的收益重新投入了英伟达。

So we put some of our Palantir proceeds back into Nvidia.

在考虑人工智能领域的股票时，还有其他值得关注的吗？

Is there anything else in the AI bucket when you're thinking about stocks?

当你考虑芯片公司时，台积电是芯片制造的平台。

Well, when you're thinking about chip companies in particular, TSM is the platform for chip manufacturing.

无论谁获胜都没关系。

It doesn't matter who wins.

我们认为将会有更多竞争对手挑战英伟达。

We do think there are going to be many more competitors to NVIDIA.

英伟达仍然是第一名。

NVIDIA is still number one.

你听说过Grok吗？

Have you heard about Grok?

哦，听说过。

Oh, yes.

Grok，我们通过我们的私募基金进行了投资。

Grok, we are invested our private fund.

哦，好的。

Oh, Okay.

所以为了让大家可能感到困惑的地方澄清一下。

So just for people that might be confused.

你是说带Q的Grok吗？

Do you mean Grok with a Q.

哦，是的。

Oh, yes.

这属于我们的私募基金。

That's in our private fund.

我们确实拥有Grok。

We do own Grok.

这是一家在推理端非常重要的公司。

And that's a very important company on the inference side of the equation.

我也投资了Grok。

I've invested in Grok as well.

是的。

Yeah.

你最好做个免责声明。

You should probably disclaim that.

嗯，我觉得你会做得很好。

Well, I think you're going to do very well.

不过，台积电是所有芯片制造商进行生产的首选。

So TSM, though, is where all the chip manufacturers go for production.

它是全球最先进的芯片制造商。

It is the most sophisticated manufacturer of chips in the world.

那里存在地缘政治风险。

There is geopolitical risk there.

它的大部分业务都在台湾。

Most of its business is in Taiwan.

它正在积极向美国扩展，我认为甚至也在向欧洲扩展。

It is diversifying into certainly into The US and I think even into Europe.

所以我认为它也将继续是一家非常重要的公司。

So I think that will continue to be a very important company as well.

那么，如果你必须告诉我你的前十大公开股票，供任何人投资，你的前十大是哪些？

So what are your what's your top 10 in terms of public stocks that anybody could invest in if you had to give me your top 10?

所以我得告诉你，它们列在我们的网站上。

So I'd have to give you and they're listed on our website.

我不会按顺序说，我相信。

And I won't go in order, I'm sure.

但当然，特斯拉、Coinbase、Robinhood。

But of course, Tesla, Coinbase, Robinhood.

Roku 是一种用于联网电视的操作系统。

Roku is an operating system for connected TVs.

这是一只被严重误解的股票。

Highly misunderstood stock.

CRISPR Therapeutics，专注于基因编辑。

CRISPR Therapeutics, which is the Gene editing.

用于治疗镰状细胞病和β地中海贫血的基因编辑。

Gene editing for sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia.

Palantir，我认为我之前在AI软件领域提到过。

Palantir, I think I've mentioned in the AI software space.

Archer 刚刚进入前十名。

Archer just moved into the top 10.

这是一家eVTOL公司，而且它与安德里尔签署了一项双方独家协议，这相当令人印象深刻；安德里尔是最高端的国防科技公司，增长势头迅猛。

It's the eVTOL company, whichand it also signed a deal, an exclusive deal on both sides, which was quite impressivewith Anderil, which is the most sophisticated defense tech play and is growing like gangbusters.

这太棒了。

So that's terrific.

Shopify是一个购物平台的后端系统，正在大量使用人工智能。

Shopify, which is a shopping platform back end and really using AI.

Roblox？

Roblox?

哦，我们漏掉了这个。

Oh, that's the one we're missing.

Roblox。

Roblox.

Roblox。

Roblox.

这是一个游戏，对吧？

Which is a game, right?

是的。

Yes.

这是一家用户生成内容的游戏公司。

It's a user generated gaming company.

很有趣。

Fascinating.

它也是一个社交平台。

And it's also a social platform.

它最初是为13岁以下儿童开发的。

It started for children younger than 13 years old.

有趣的是，他们一直保留着这个群体，因为现在其用户中有60%以上超过了13岁，这非常有意思。

And what's interesting about it is they've stayed with it because 60 of its user base now is above 13, which is very interesting.

它是目前最大的用户生成内容提供商。

It's the largest user generated content provider out there.

令人着迷的是，我知道我一个朋友的女儿在Roblox上开了自己的服装店。

And what is fascinating about it is I know one of my friend's daughter has started her own dress shop on Roblox.

她不明白的是，她不仅在学习商业，还在学习编程，尤其是在这个全新的编码世界中。

And what she doesn't understand is that she's learning about business, but she's also learning how to code, especially in this new vibe coding world.

所以我认为这家公司未来将变得非常重要。

So I think it's going to be a very important company going forward.

关于游戏和技术的转型，有趣的是，它是唯一一个在技术转型中没有崩溃的娱乐媒介。

The interesting thing about gaming and technology transitions is that it is the only entertainment medium that has not fallen apart with technology transitions.

实际上，它一直在增长，因为那些二十五年前就热爱游戏的人至今仍在玩。

It has actually grown because those who love their games from twenty five years ago still play them.

它随着每一次技术革命而不断壮大。

It's grown with each technology revolution.

游戏中的用户生成内容是下一个重大趋势。

And user generated content in gaming is the next big thing.

一个企业的优劣取决于其内部的人才。

A business is only as good as the people inside it.

那么，你如何确保自己雇佣到最优秀的人才呢？

So how do you make sure you're hiring the best?

我们的赞助商LinkedIn可以帮助您快速找到这些求职者。

Our sponsor, LinkedIn, can help you find these applicants quickly.

我相信花时间慢慢招聘。

I believe in taking time to hire slowly.

但我也明白，一旦决定招聘，您就想尽快推进，让最佳候选人出现在您面前开始面试。

But I also understand that once you've decided to hire, you want to get the ball rolling and get the best candidates in front of you to start interviewing.

而这时，在LinkedIn上付费推广您的职位就显得尤为重要，因为您收到的求职申请速度将是免费发布职位的七倍。

And that's where paying to promote your role on LinkedIn makes all the difference, because you'll get applicants seven times faster than if you post your job for free.

尽管缓慢而审慎的招聘很重要，但您绝不希望招聘平台成为阻碍您的因素。

And even though slower, more considered hiring is important, you never want your hiring platforms to be what's holding you back.

LinkedIn能跟上节奏。

LinkedIn keeps pace.

它承担了繁重的工作，向您推送那些您在其他地方找不到的高技能候选人。

It takes care of the heavy lifting, sending you highly skilled candidates that you wouldn't find anywhere else.

所以，当您准备进行下一次招聘时，让这次招聘更有价值，在LinkedIn上推广您的职位吧。

So when the time comes to make your next hire, make it count and promote your job on LinkedIn.

前往 linkedin.com/doac。

Head to linkedin.com/doac.

这是 linkedin.com/doac，条款和条件适用。

That's linkedin.com/doac, and terms and conditions apply.

请确保你对我接下来要说的话保密。

Make sure you keep what I'm about to say to yourself.

我邀请你们中的10,000人更深入地了解一位首席执行官的日记。

I'm inviting 10,000 of you to come even deeper into the diary of a CEO.

欢迎加入我的内部圈子。

Welcome to my inner circle.

这是一个我即将向世界推出的全新私人社区。

This is a brand new private community that I'm launching to the world.

我们有许多精彩绝伦的时刻，而你从未见过。

We have so many incredible things that happen that you are never shown.

我们有我在录制对话时iPad上显示的简报。

We have the briefs that are on my iPad when I'm recording the conversation.

我们有一些从未发布过的片段。

We have clips we've never released.

我们还有与嘉宾的幕后对话，以及那些从未发布过的剧集，还有更多内容。

We have behind the scenes conversations with the guests and also the episodes that we've never ever released and so much more.

在圈子里，你可以直接联系我。

In The Circle, you'll have direct access to me.

你可以告诉我们你希望这个节目变成什么样，想让我们采访谁，以及你希望我们进行哪些类型的对话。

You can tell us what you want this show to be, who you want us to interview, and the types of conversations you would love us to have.

但请记住，目前我们只邀请前10,000位在关闭前加入的人。

But remember, for now, we're only inviting the first 10,000 people that join before it closes.

所以，如果你想加入我们的私人封闭社群，请点击下方描述中的链接，或访问doaccircle.com。

So if you wanna join our private close community, head to the link in the description below or go to doaccircle.com.

那时再见。

I will speak to you then.

如果你有一千美元可以投资

If you had a thousand dollars to invest

嗯。

Mhmm.

而且你必须把这笔钱投资出去，你会投到哪里呢？

And you had to invest it somewhere, where would you be investing it?

嗯

Well

如果你手头有一千美元，你对于财富创造的整体理念会是什么？你会怎么思考为自己创造财富？

And how would you be like the general philosophy towards wealth creation at such a stage, if you had $1,000 how would you be thinking about creating wealth for yourself?

有几点。

A couple of things.

定期投资于某个ETF

Averaging into either an ETF

ETF是什么？

What's an ETF?

ETF，就是交易所交易基金。

ETF, exchange traded fund.

所以它把一组股票当作一只股票来处理。

So it treats a group of stocks like one stock.

所以，ARKK 包含 36 只股票。

So, ARKK is 36 stocks.

但你可以通过购买 ARKK 来买入它们。

But you can buy them by purchasing ARKK.

你可以通过下载手机应用来操作吗？

And you can do that on your mobile phone by downloading?

你可以在手机上操作。

You can do it on your mobile phone.

有很多不同的应用，让你只需购买这一只 ETF，从而间接拥有 35 只股票。

A bunch of different apps that allow you to just buy that one ETF, which means you earn 35 stocks.

是的。

Yes.

你的团队基本上是在选择这 35 只股票。

And And your team are basically choosing what those 35 stocks are

是的。

Yes.

基于你的研究。

Based on your research.

对。

Right.

ARKK 是我们最具信心的股票。

And ARKK are our highest conviction stocks.

它们让我们接触到所有我们之前讨论过的创新领域。

And they offer an exposure to all of the innovation platforms that we've talked about.

而欧洲的ARKI主要专注于人工智能和机器人技术。

Whereas ARKI here in Europe is focused primarily on artificial intelligence and robotics.

因为我们认为这种融合将会非常迅猛。

Because we think that convergence is going to be pretty explosive.

你在那里得不到，但在ARKK中有的，我们还在另一个非常专注的基金ARKG中提供，它主要聚焦于人工智能在医疗健康领域的应用，以及其他我们认为将在新世界中产生变革性影响的医疗健康公司——随着监管机构真正认识到人工智能在药物发现、研究、临床试验、开发、诊断测试和治愈疾病中的重要性。

What you don't get there and you do get in ARKK, we also have in another very focused fund, ARKG, which is really healthcare applications of AI and other healthcare names that we think are going to be pretty transformative in the new world as regulators really understand how important AI is going to become to discovery, research, trials, development, to diagnostic tests, and to curing disease.

另一个问题是关于以太坊和其他加密货币的。

Another question popped up, which is about Ethereum and these other cryptocurrencies.

你们会投资其他这些加密货币吗？

Do you invest in any of these others?

是的，我们在公开基金中持有它们，不过我认为在英国目前还不能持有。

Yes, we have well, in our public funds, we've put them I don't think we can own them here in The UK yet.

但在美国，我们的某些基金中确实持有它们，两者都有。

But in US, we have them in some of our funds, both of them.

它们是金融服务革命的关键。

They're key to the financial services revolution.

为了让人们理解和接受这一点，我们并不称之为加密货币革命。

So to get people to understand and feel comfortable with that, we don't call it the crypto revolution.

我们称之为数字资产革命。

It's the digital assets revolution.

这其实就是金融互联网，即Finternet。

And it's simply the Finternet, the financial internet.

好的。

Okay.

所以我们确实投资了。

So we do.

我们确实投资了。

We do.

您是否认为比特币的价格潜力比以太坊更大？

And do you believe are you more bullish on the price potential of Bitcoin than Ethereum?

是的。

Yes.

我们认为比特币是最伟大的构想。

We think Bitcoin is the biggest idea.

它推动了三大革命。

It serves the three revolutions.

全球货币体系，它们做不到。

Global monetary system, they do not.

这是一种新的资产类别，它们属于一个新资产类别，但比特币将成为最大的。

New asset class, they are part of a new asset class, but Bitcoin is going to be the biggest.

而且是一种新技术。

And new technology.

它是目前最安全的区块链技术。

It's the most secure blockchain technology out there.

那其他所有币种呢，比如Solana和其他这些？

What about all these others, Solana and all these other

以太坊和Solana。

So Ether and Solana.

所以三大就是这三个。

So the big three are those are the big three.

我们认为它们都会成功，这三个都会。

And we think they'll all be successful, all three of them.

其中比特币最成功。

Bitcoin the most.

我们对稳定币非常感兴趣，但那就像现金一样。

We're very interested in stablecoins, but that's just like cash.

现在有数百万种加密资产。

And there are millions of crypto assets out there.

我们认为其中大多数都会失败。

We think most of them die.

有没有办法投资稳定币？

Is there any way to invest in stablecoins?

比如你怎么投资

Like how do you invest in

所以目前是通过Coinbase间接投资。

So indirectly, right now, it is through Coinbase.

他们与Circle达成了合作。

They have a deal with Circle.

Circle产生的任何收入，其稳定币都是USDC。

Any revenue that Circle generates, its stablecoin is USDC.

任何收入，在美国都是五五分。

Any revenue, they split fifty-fifty in The US.

Circle公司本身已宣布将上市。

Circle itself has announced that it is going public.

因此我们对此充满期待。

And so we're looking forward to that.

那么，要成为一个优秀的投资者，需要具备什么样的心理或心态呢？

And what's the sort of psychology or mentality one has to adopt to be a good investor?

这取决于你买了什么。

Depends what you've bought.

如果你购买的是我们这样的策略，也就是激进增长型策略，就像我前面提到的比特币一样，随着时间推移定期投入，逐步平均成本。

If you buy a strategy like ours, which would be in the aggressive growth strategy, put it in, you know, averaging in over time, just like with Bitcoin, as I mentioned earlier, averaging in over time.

什么是定期平均成本？

What does averaging in mean?

定期平均成本的意思是，每个月都买一点，也许每次发工资时都买一点。

Averaging in means, you know, buy a little every month, maybe every payday.

我觉得我其中一个女儿每周都在买比特币，但不是买整个比特币。

I think one of my daughters was buying Bitcoin every week, but not a Bitcoin.

她做不到那样。

She couldn't do that.

买一个聪（Satoshi）。

A Satoshi.

你知道的，就是这样。

You know, so.

然后闭上眼睛。

And close your eyes.

这是一个长期投资。

This is a long term investment.

如果我们分析得没错的话。

If we're right, according to our analysis.

这是我们的研究，我们的分析。

Now this is our research, our analysis.

不做任何承诺。

No promises.

我们做不到。

We can't do that.

但根据我们的研究，我们围绕其开展研究并集中投资的技术，我们认为在未来五到十年内将上涨十倍以上。

But according to our research, the technologies around which we have centered our research and which have focused our investments, they, we believe, will go up more than tenfold in the next five to ten years.

随着这些技术融合并为投资者创造惊人的机会，我们面前将有如此巨大的增长潜力。

And that's how much explosive growth we have ahead of us as these technologies converge and create incredible opportunities for investors.

我听到很多刚进入投资领域的人，当然，他们都有自己的本职工作。

And I'm hearing a lot people as they get into investing, of course, they have their day jobs.

但一旦积累了一定的资本，他们就会选择减少本职工作的时间，投入更多时间进行投资。

But once they have accrued enough, they're making choices about dialing down their day jobs and spending more time investing.

你问未来的一些工作会是什么？

You asked what are some of the jobs of the future going to be?

我认为，如果投资者能够站在变革的正确一侧，他们将能够为自己提供保障。

I think individual investors are going to be providing for themselves if they are investing on the right side of change.

所以，如果你是对的，这意味着通过投资你们的基金，我大约能获得1000%的回报？

So if you're right, that means that by investing your fund, I'd make 1000% return, roughly?

是的。

Yes.

没有保证。

No promises.

但这一切都是基于研究的。

But this is all based on research.

你可以在我们的《重大展望》中找到这些内容。

And you can find it in our Big Ideas.

《2025年重大展望》可以在我们的网站arcinvest.com上找到。

Big Ideas 2025 is on our website, arcinvest.com.

你还可以在arcfunds.com上找到更多关于我们基金的信息。

And you can find a lot more information about our funds on arcfunds.com.

我应该说明一下，这并不是投资建议。

And I should probably say this is not investing advice.

确实不是。

It is not.

我希望

I want

你一定要确保

to You do make your sure

自己做研究。

own research.

你可以

You can

亏掉你所有的钱。

lose all of your money.

是的。

Yes.

如果你决定这么做，可能会亏掉全部资金。

You can lose all of it if you decide to do Yes.