每日快讯：迈克·约翰逊遭新叛乱震动，MAGA-共和党怒火沸腾：“胡说八道！”

这里是《新共和》的每日快讯，由DSR网络制作播出。

This is the Daily Blast from The New Republic produced and presented by the DSR Network.

我是主持人格雷格·萨金特。

I'm your host, Greg Sargent.

对众议院议长迈克·约翰逊的重大打击：四名共和党议员与民主党联手，强制明年就《平价医疗法案》补贴延期进行投票。

In a big blow to house speaker Mike Johnson, four house republicans just joined with democrats to force a vote next year on an extension of affordable care act subsidies.

这些在中期选举中处境脆弱的共和党人，希望此举能帮助保住他们明年的席位。

Those republicans who are vulnerable in the midterms are hoping this helps save their seats next year.

但真能如愿吗？

But will it?

共和党面临的困境在于，当前事态几乎注定无法挽救补贴政策——这将在他们最经不起打击的时刻，使其在医保议题上陷入被动。

The problem for Republicans is that what's happening now is almost certain not to save the subsidies, which will leave them on the wrong side of the health care issue when they can least afford it.

最新民调揭示了该党在医保和经济议题上的深重危机。

New polls today underscore the depth of the party's hole on health care and the economy.

而迈克·约翰逊对此的回应，也在无意中暴露了更多问题。

And Mike Johnson's reaction to all this was unintentionally revealing as well.

我们正在与格蕾丝·西格斯讨论所有这些话题，她作为《新共和》杂志的专职撰稿人，对国会和政策有着非常出色的报道。

We're talking about all of it with Grace Seegers, who writes really well about Congress and policy as a staff writer for the New Republic.

格蕾丝，很高兴你能来参加节目。

Grace, good to have you on.

非常感谢邀请我。

Thanks so much for having me.

那么让我们从这里开始。

So let's start here.

四位共和党人刚刚联署了这份撤换请愿书，要求在2026年就延长《平价医疗法案》补贴进行投票，这些补贴在拜登任内扩大后即将到期，延长期限为三年。

Four Republicans just joined this discharge petition to force a vote in 2026 on a three year extension of the affordable care act subsidies that were expanded under Joe Biden and are expiring.

格蕾丝，这些补贴到期将影响数百万人，但即使这项众议院法案通过，也很可能无法成为法律。

Grace, this expiration is gonna hit millions of people, and yet it's highly likely that even if this house bill passes, it won't get into law.

你能解释一下这其中的原因吗？

Can you explain all this?

今天我们看到四位众议院共和党人签署了撤换请愿书，这本质上是他们绕过众议院程序、强制对延长这些补贴的立法进行投票的一种方式。

So today we saw four house republicans sign onto a discharge petition, which is basically a way for them to get around the house process and force a vote on legislation that would allow the extension of these subsidies.

正如你所说，这对数百万依赖《平价医疗法案》市场来参保的美国人来说至关重要。

Like you said, this is a really big deal for millions of Americans who rely on the Affordable Care Act marketplace to enroll in healthcare.

但问题在于，即便该法案明年能在众议院通过，首先补贴届时已经到期，这意味着数百万人将受到影响。

But the issue here is that even if and when it does pass in the House next year, first of all, the subsidies will have already expired, so that means that millions of people are going to be affected.

其次，共和党仍控制着参议院，而且阻挠议事规则依然存在，所以法案很可能也无法在参议院通过。

And then second of all, Republicans still control the senate, and there's still the filibuster in place, so it probably wouldn't pass in the Senate either.

因此从某种意义上说，这更像是众议院共和党人用来显示他们在这个问题上有所作为的手段，但很难说这会产生实际的政策影响。

So in a sense, this is more of a way for those House Republicans to make it look as if they are doing something on the issue, but it's hard to see whether this would have an actual policy impact.

那么，我们来谈谈这四位共和党人。

Well, so let's talk about these four Republicans.

他们分别是宾夕法尼亚州的布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克、小罗伯·布雷斯纳汉和瑞安·麦肯齐。

They are Brian Fitzpatrick, Rob Bresnahan Junior, Ryan McKenzie.

这三位都来自宾夕法尼亚州。

Those three are from Pennsylvania.

还有纽约州的迈克·劳勒。

And then there's Mike Lawler of New York.

他们在2026年将面临选举压力。

They're vulnerable in 2026.

他们一直在推动众议院就补贴延期进行投票，因为正如你所说，他们必须在这个问题上站对立场。

They've been trying to get the house to vote on an extension of the subsidies because as you say, they really need to be on the right side of this issue.

迈克·约翰逊一直拒绝这么做。

Mike Johnson's been refusing.

现在听听迈克·劳勒对此的反应。

Now listen to how Mike Lawler reacted to this.

我为美国人民感到愤怒。

Am pissed for the American people.

这完全是胡扯，我们435名议员组成的机构竟出现这种情况，简直荒谬。

This is absolute bullshit, and it's absurd that we are in a body with 435 members.

每个人都有责任服务自己的选区，服务自己的选民。

Everybody has a responsibility to serve their district, to serve their constituents.

再听听共和党众议员凯文·基利的这番话，他正在谈论约翰逊拒绝允许该投票的事。

And listen to this from representative Kevin Kiley, also a Republican, who's speaking here about Johnson's refusal to allow that vote.

这是领导力的缺失。

That's a failure of leadership.

我的意思是，我们两党都有成员认为这是个紧迫问题，而且对我们所有成员来说都是如此，因为他们的选民在新年伊始就要面对这个问题。

I mean, we have, you know, members on both sides who, believe this is an urgent issue, and and it is for for all of our members in terms of what their constituents are gonna have to deal with at the start of the new year.

那么进行投票有什么问题呢？

So what's wrong with having a vote?

显然，一些共和党人认为，如果民众的保费大幅上涨，这将使他们免受选民反弹的影响。

So clearly, some of these Republicans think this will insulate them from constituent blowback if and when people's premium spike big time.

但我真的很怀疑这是否属实。

But I really wonder if that's true.

如你所说，他们无论如何都会暴跳如雷。

As you say, they're gonna spike anyway.

但我认为整个共和党很可能要为正在发生的事承担大部分责任。

But I think also the entire Republican party is likely to get most of the blame for what's happening.

而这只会加剧人们想要赶走共和党人的欲望。

And that just is gonna fuel a desire to throw out Republicans.

再加上典型的中期选举模式，这些都对掌控白宫的政党不利，我认为即使投票支持延期也不足以保护那些脆弱的议员。

You add on to that the typical midterm patterns, which just work against the party that is in control of the White House, and I don't know that even voting for the extension is enough to protect the vulnerable ones.

你怎么看？

What do you think?

当然，这很难说。

It's, of course, tricky to say.

我想我们应该注意到，除了布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克外，那四位议员都在夏天投票支持了《一揽子美好法案》，该法案削减了医疗补助并对社会政策做了许多改动。

I think that we should note that all of those four, with the exception of Brian Fitzpatrick did vote for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act over the summer, the law that cut Medicaid and made a lot of changes to social policy.

而且我们知道共和党人通常会保持一致立场，就像他们夏天对待那项立法时那样。

And we know that Republicans generally fall in line as they did over the summer with that legislation.

我们知道医疗保健通常是共和党人被认为表现较差的领域。

We know that this is generally something, healthcare is generally something that Republicans are considered to do more poorly on.

但我也要指出，尽管根据中期选举趋势来看，民主党重新掌控众议院的可能性或许比共和党保住它更大。

But I will also note that even though conditionally with the way midterm trends are going, it's more likely that Democrats recapture the House perhaps than House Republicans hold onto it.

不过我刚刚看了今天公布的昆尼皮亚克民调，显示国会中的民主党人目前的支持率是自2009年以来最低的，只有18%的美国登记选民认可他们当前的表现。

But I was just looking at a Quinnipiac poll out today that showed that Democrats in Congress do have the lowest approval rating that they've had since 2009 right now, with only 18% of Americans registered voters supporting how they're doing right now.

因此我认为我们需要更细致地分析，而不仅仅是简单认为美国人会对共和党感到愤怒。

So I think it'd be we need a little bit more nuance here other than just, you know, Americans are going to be mad at Republicans.

因为虽然这确实属实，但情况并不像‘他们因此就会转向民主党’这么简单明确。

Because I think that's true, but I think it's not quite as clear cut as in, you know, maybe that then they will turn to Democrats instead.

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

民主党在说服选民他们会做得更好这方面，还有很多工作要做。

The Democrats have a lot of work to do in in in convincing voters that they're gonna be better.

我只是认为中期选举本质上是对执政党的公投。

I just think that, you know, the way midterms function generally is it's a referendum on the party in power.

所以我们且看民主党惨淡的支持率是否会改变这一结构性事实。

So I guess we'll see if the the the miserable numbers for democrats undoes that structural fact.

让我们听听迈克·约翰逊对此如何回应。

Let's listen to how Mike Johnson responded to this.

当时有记者问他，请愿书已获得足够签名是否意味着他失去了对众议院的控制。

He was asked by a reporter if the fact that the discharge petition now has enough signatures means he's lost control of the house.

听听这个。

Listen to this.

你失去对众议院的控制了吗？

Have you lost control of the house?

我并没有失去对众议院的控制。

I have not lost control of the house.

因为这是第三次了。

Because they're the third time.

他们就是她的样子。

They're her look.

我们拥有美国历史上最微弱的多数优势。

We have the smallest majority in US history.

明白吗？

Okay?

这不是寻常时期。

These are not normal times.

所以，格雷斯，约翰逊在这里说，我并没有失去控制权，但看起来他将无法阻止关于延长ACA补贴的投票。

So, Grace, here Johnson says, I have not lost control, and yet it appears that he's gonna be unable to prevent a vote on extending the ACA subsidies.

你能详细解释一下他最初为何想要阻止这次投票吗？

Can you walk us through why he wanted to block this vote in the first place?

当时有相当大一部分众议院共和党人坚决反对延长补贴，对吧？

There was a pretty large block of House Republicans that absolutely didn't want to extend the subsidies, right?

我认为我们不应忽视这里的意识形态因素。

I do think that we shouldn't overlook the ideological element here.

迈克·约翰逊本质上是个非常保守的共和党人。

So Mike Johnson is fundamentally a very conservative Republican.

而且众议院中许多更保守的共和党人首先在原则上就非常反对整个ACA法案，更不用说反对任何与ACA相关的内容以及为其投入任何资金。

And a lot of the more conservative Republicans in the House were very against, first of all, just the ACA as a whole on principle, but certainly against extending anything to do with the ACA and spending any kind of money on the ACA.

因此我认为这很可能就是他试图阻止该法案进入投票阶段的最大动机——因为他从根本上反对ACA，并认为不应再为其投入更多联邦资金。

So I actually do think that is probably his biggest motivation in preventing or attempting to prevent this from coming to a vote is simply because he fundamentally disagrees with the ACA and doesn't believe that any more federal money should be spent on it.

话虽如此，我们已经看到他的多数优势极其微弱，各种不同意识形态阵营都在争夺影响力。

That said, we have seen how he has an incredibly thin majority and lots of different ideological blocs sort of vying for power.

这几乎适用于我们所见过的现代每一位议长。

That's been true for pretty much every speaker that we've seen in the modern era.

但我确实认为，正如他经常抱怨的那样，他微弱的多数优势意味着事情对他来说更加困难。

But I do think that his narrow majority, as he often complains about, means that it makes things more difficult for him.

这一点在秋季政府停摆期间尤为明显，当时众议院休会数周，因为让众议院休会比让他们开会却无法控制其行动更为容易。

And you kind of saw that in the fall during the government shutdown when the House was out for several weeks because, you know, it is, easier to keep the House out of session than to have them in session and not be in control of what they do.

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我想接着你刚才说的，迈克·约翰逊在意识形态上反对延长补贴。

Well, I wanna pick up on what you just said there, which is that Mike Johnson is ideologically opposed to the subsidies getting extended.

显然，他计算过如果进行投票，法案会通过。

Clearly, he calculated that if it did get a vote, it would pass.

对吧？

Right?

我是说，问题就在这里。

I mean, this is the thing.

这次事件暴露出共和党的立场非常不得人心，不得人心到最终一批温和派不得不与迈克·约翰逊及共和党会议决裂，转而与民主党合作。

What's been revealed here is that the Republican position is very unpopular, so unpopular that finally a block of moderates had to break with Mike Johnson and the Republican conference to join the Democrats.

对吧？

Right?

我确实认为共和党人意识到这个问题有多关键。

I do think that Republicans realize how much of a critical issue this is.

我们已看到特朗普的民调专家，比如我想到的托尼·法布里齐奥，他们都认为这将成为共和党面临的一个重大议题。

We have seen Trump pollsters, like Tony Fabrizio I'm thinking of, but we have had Trump pollsters look at this issue and say this is going to be a big issue for Republicans.

因为这不仅像医疗补助那样影响极低收入的美国人。

Because it's not just, as with Medicaid, very low income Americans who are going to be affected.

而是所有参与ACA医保市场的人都将受影响。

It is everyone who participates in the ACA marketplace.

包括中低收入美国人在内，特别是民众将看到保费出现大幅上涨。

That includes lower middle and middle income Americans, and in particular, Americans are going to be affected and see their premiums hike by a dramatic amount as well.

因此我认为共和党人和民主党人都意识到，这个问题不会消失。

And so I think that Republicans recognize, as Democrats recognize, that this is an issue that is not going to go away.

尤其是当我们明年看到保费上涨时，政策对美国民众的影响将非常现实。

And particularly when we see those premiums go up next year, the policy consequences for Americans will be very real.

那么我们来谈谈一些新的民调数据，因为它很好地佐证了你的观点。

Well, let's talk about some of the new polling because it underscores your point really well.

美国国家公共电台与马里斯特的最新民调显示，特朗普在经济方面的支持率跌至36%的新低。

A new NPR Marist poll has Trump's approval at a new low of 36% on the economy.

54%的美国民众表示担心明年将无力支付医疗费用，其中55%是无党派人士。

54% of Americans say they're concerned that they won't be able to pay for health care in the next year, and that includes 55% of independents.

整个局势中令我震惊的是，医疗问题如今比以往任何时候都更是一个经济议题。

One thing that's striking to me about this whole situation is that health care is now even more of an economic issue than it sometimes is.

我认为有时评论家们和公共讨论中错误地将医疗与经济割裂开来，这种划分颇为奇怪。

It's sometimes, I think, wrongly put in a separate bucket from the economy in in a funny way in the minds of pundits and in our discourse.

但当前的核心问题正是所谓的'可负担性'，医疗成本正以重大方式渗透到经济问题中。

But with quote, unquote affordability being the big issue right now, health care costs bleeds into economic issues in a major way.

绝大多数美国民众表示将无力承担医疗费用，而无党派人士中这一比例更高，这相当严峻，不是吗？

And a majority, solid majority of Americans saying that they're not gonna be able to pay for health care and an even more solid majority of independents, that's pretty rough, isn't it?

考虑到明年将有大量人群无力承担医疗费用，这可能导致严重后果——他们可能被迫选择保费更低但自付额更高的方案，反而增加实际支出。

Well, when you think about all of the folks who aren't going to be able to afford their health care next year, that could have really significant consequences where they may choose to look for a different plan that has a lower premium, but that has higher deductibles or co pays, and that could also increase costs.

或者他们可能完全放弃医疗保险。

Or they could go without health insurance altogether.

他们可能选择彻底终止保险 coverage。

They could choose to drop their coverage altogether.

这意味着如果主要是健康人群放弃医疗保险，那么对仍需保险的人群而言，风险池会扩大，这将进一步推高保费。

And then what that means is if you have primarily healthy people dropping their health insurance, then the risk pool gets greater for the existing people who need health insurance, and that makes premiums go up even more.

因此我们不仅会看到短期内成本上升，随着更多人选择放弃医保，问题只会愈发严重。

So not only are we seeing a cost increase in the immediate term, it's probably only going to compound as more people choose to drop healthcare.

当然，当人们选择放弃医保时，往往意味着他们的健康状况更糟糕了。

And of course, when people choose to drop health insurance, that means people are sicker.

没错，我们很可能会看到未参保率急剧上升。

Right, we're going to see probably a spike in the uninsured rate.

正如你指出的，这将影响数百万人，远超依赖补贴的群体，对吧？

And as you point out, this is going to affect a lot of people beyond the millions who are counting on the subsidies, correct?

ACA医保市场参保者将是首当其冲受影响的人群。

So the ACA marketplace enrollees are the ones who are going to be the most immediately affected.

但美国医疗体系的某个环节一旦被削弱或面临风险，整个体系都会受到牵连。

But when one aspect of the American healthcare system is undermined or put at risk, then the rest of the healthcare system is as well.

所以明年所有人的医疗成本都会上涨。

So everyone is seeing healthcare costs go up next year.

不仅仅是ACA参保者，所有人都将面临成本上涨。

It's not just people who are ACA enrollees, everyone is going to be seeing increased costs.

保险公司会根据通过ACA市场参保的人员情况做出决策，同时考虑到我们已看到的医疗补助削减——虽然这些措施几年后才会生效，但保险公司、医院以及各类医疗中心的行为模式仍会深受ACA和医疗补助未来走向的影响。

And as insurers make decisions based on who is enrolling through the ACA marketplace, and then also based on cuts to Medicaid that we have seen that aren't going into effect for a couple of years, but still very much in mind of how insurers behave, how hospitals behave, how any kind of health center behaves depends very much on what's going to be happening next with the ACA and with Medicaid.

因此尽管直接影响主要针对参保者，但整个美国医疗体系产生的连锁反应将波及所有人。

So even though directly it's primarily going to affect enrollees, there are ripple effects throughout the rest of the American health care system that will impact everybody.

是的，而且我想

Yeah, and I want

提一下这份昆尼皮亚克民调。

to bring up this Quinnipiac poll.

你之前提到过它。

You mentioned it earlier.

数据显示特朗普在医疗政策上的支持率为34%，反对率达59%。

It has Trump's approval on health care at 34% to 59% disapproving.

民调还显示在哪个政党能更好处理医疗问题方面，民主党以51%对37%占据优势。

It also has democrats with a 51 to 37 advantage on which party can do a better job handling the health care issue.

所以，虽然承认你关于民主党支持率低迷的观点，但他们在医保议题上仍以两位数优势比共和党更受信任。

So, you know, acknowledging your point about the dismal numbers for Democrats, it still doesn't prevent them from being trusted on this issue by double digits over Republicans.

我想如果我理解正确的话，听起来我们甚至无法预测未来一年内损害会有多严重。

And I think if I'm hearing you correctly, it sounds to me like we really can't even predict how bad the damage is gonna be, over time throughout the next year.

而且在这些损害显现之前，共和党就已经面临如此糟糕的数据了。

And we've got these terrible numbers for Republicans even before that damage has set in.

对吧？

Right?

情况会恶化到什么程度？

How much worse does this get?

嗯，从民调来看，一般来说民主党确实在医保等议题上表现更好。

Well, when you look at polling, generally speaking, Democrats do tend to do better on issues such as health care.

我们都知道这点。

We know that.

而共和党则通常在移民等议题上更占优势。

And then Republicans tend to do better on issues such as immigration.

最近的民调显示，共和党在这些议题上的差距似乎正在缩小。

And it seems in recent polling as if those gaps for Republicans are narrowing.

但我认为观察医疗保健是否在未来一年仍是选民最关心的问题会很有趣。

But I do think it'll be interesting to see whether health care remains top of mind for voters over the next year.

因为如果确实如此，而且众所周知民主党在医疗保健方面表现更佳，那对民主党可能有利。

Because if it does, and as we generally know, Democrats are seen as doing better on health care, then that could be good for Democrats.

与此同时，我认为普遍存在对国会、政治和政客的广泛疲惫感。

At the same time, I do think that there's a lot of fatigue all around in general with, Congress, with politics, with politicians.

就结构性趋势而言，我认为民主党在明年确实占据优势。

And, you know, in terms of structural trends, I do think that Democrats are have the advantage when it comes to next year.

但当前经济形势也很糟糕。

But it is also just things are bad with the economy.

民众正遭受痛苦。

People are hurting.

有时你根本无法预知他们在投票时会如何解读这些情况，尤其是在一年之前。

And sometimes you just don't know how they are going to interpret that when they go to the ballot box, particularly not a year in advance.

你认为医疗体系会恶化到什么程度？

So how bad do you think the health care system is going to get?

我们会看到未参保率激增吗？

Are we going to see a spike in the uninsured rate?

我们会看到大量民众陷入困境吗？

Are we gonna see a lot of suffering?

我们会看到许多乡村医院举步维艰吗？

Are we gonna see a lot of rural hospitals really struggling?

在我看来，我们正面临多重不利因素叠加的完美风暴。

It seems to me that we're looking at a bit of a perfect storm of of of factors here that are really bad.

要知道，我们原本通过《平价医疗法案》正朝着好的方向发展——至少过去几年某些时期是这样。

And and, you know, we were kind of on a track to something good with the Affordable Care Act, at least, you know, at certain times over the last few years.

最显著的成就是它降低了未参保率，这确实是进步派的重大成果。

The the big story was kind of that it was, you know, it was lowering the uninsured rate, which was a real progressive achievement.

但如果我没理解错的话，现在整个体系将面临严重问题，这会导致大量民众受苦。

But now, if if it I'm hearing you correctly, we're headed for real trouble throughout the system in ways that are going to cause a lot of suffering.

是这样吗？

Is that right?

是的，这些都不是孤立存在的。

Yeah, none of this exists within a vacuum.

具体说到《平价医疗法案》，自2021年推出增强版补贴以来，ACA医保市场的参与率急剧上升。

So with regard to the ACA specifically, since these enhanced subsidies were introduced in 2021, participation in the ACA marketplace has spiked dramatically.

正如我刚才所说，人们可能会选择完全放弃医保。

And as I was saying, people may choose to drop coverage overall.

我们预计会看到——

And we are expecting to see.

国会预算办公室预计，十年内这项变化可能导致两百万人失去保险。

The Congressional Budget Office has expected that over the ten years, this change could result in two million people losing their insurance.

其他机构预估的数字甚至比这更大。

Other people or other organizations have estimated even greater numbers than that.

再加上医疗补助计划的削减，这将对参保率产生巨大影响，尤其当人们可能无法满足新的工作要求时。

And then when you look on top of that with the cuts to Medicaid, that also is going to have a dramatic effect on the insured rate, particularly as people may not be able to meet new work requirements.

因此我认为，未来几年在医疗保健领域将面临一场完美风暴，不仅因为这些额外补贴的取消，还因为我们看到的医疗补助计划的变化。

So I do think that this is somewhat of a perfect storm in terms of a healthcare crisis over the next couple of years, because it's not just losing these enhanced subsidies, it's also the changes that we're seeing to Medicaid.

是啊，在我看来情况会变得非常、非常糟糕。

Yeah, it looks to me like it's going to be really, really terrible.

格蕾丝·西格斯，非常感谢你接受我们的采访。

Grace Siegers, thanks so much for coming on with us.

不过这些消息确实相当残酷。

That's some pretty brutal stuff, though.

谢谢邀请。

Thanks for having me.