如何更明智地分配时间和金钱（与诺贝尔奖得主理查德·塞勒对话）

这是一档iHeart播客节目。

This is an iHeart podcast.

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In today's super competitive business environment, the edge goes to those who push harder, move faster, and level up every tool in their arsenal. T Mobile knows all about that. They're now the best network according to the experts at Ookla Speedtest, and they're using that network to launch Supermobile, the first and only business plan to combine intelligent performance, built in security, and seamless satellite coverage. That's your business supercharged. Learn more at supermobile.com.

在美国大多数能看到天空的户外区域，兼容设备可享受无缝覆盖。最佳网络基于Ookla对Speedtest Intelligence Data 01/2025的分析。

Seamless coverage with compatible devices in most outdoor areas in The US where you can see the sky. Best network based on analysis by Ookla of Speedtest Intelligence Data 01/2025.

AutoTrader由AutoIntelligence驱动，这是一种超个性化的购车方式，其工具能精确同步您的预算和偏好，因此您只会看到您负担得起且真正想要的车辆。选择新车或二手车，按风格筛选，选择功能，甚至拖车挂钩。尽管挑剔吧。在价格方面，您会看到哪些列表是最划算的交易，让您感觉像是赢得了谈判而无需讨价还价。由Auto Intelligence驱动的AutoTrader让购车过程不再繁琐。

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访问autotrader.com，找到您的完美座驾。嘿，家长们。快速问一下，你们上次在零食时间胜出是什么时候？这个问题在我为我的新快乐育儿课程与父母们聊起他们的日常压力时，让我感到震惊。

Visit autotrader.com to find your perfect ride. Hey, parents. Quick question. When was the last time you won snack time? This was a problem that shocked me when I chatted with moms and dads about their daily stresses for my new happier parenting course.

从放学后厨房里的饥饿崩溃，到为孩子们找到不会让您感到内疚的午后零食，父母们在零食时间似乎总是手忙脚乱。这就是为什么Mott's无糖添加苹果酱袋装产品是随手备用的完美选择。它们由真正的苹果制成，装在超级方便的袋子里，非常适合放进午餐盒、放在车里或在匆忙出门时随手抓取。此外，它们还是维生素C的良好来源，孩子们也爱不释手。这真是一举两得。

From hungry breakdowns in the kitchen after school to finding a midday treat for the kiddos that won't make you feel guilty, parents seem to be struggling when it comes to snack time. That's why Mott's no sugar added applesauce pouches are perfect to keep on hand. They're made with real apples, packed in a super easy pouch, perfect for tossing in a lunchbox, keeping in the car, or grabbing as you're running out the door. Plus, they're a good source of vitamin C, and kids love them. It's a win win.

Mott's，真正的苹果做出真正美味的苹果酱。了解更多信息，请访问mott's.com。Pushkin。作为人类，我们做了很多不太合理的事情。我有时想象，宇宙某处有一个完全理性的外星物种，他们观察着我们地球人，对我们经常违背自身最佳利益的行为感到完全震惊。

Mott's, real apples make real good applesauce. Learn more at mott's.com. Pushkin. As humans, we do a lot of things that don't make all that much sense. I sometimes imagine a completely rational alien species somewhere out there in the universe that's observing us earthlings and is totally shocked by how often we act against our own best interests.

我们明知某些食物对身体无益却仍大快朵颐，我们逃避锻炼或使用牙线这类简单却能在长期带来健康回报的预防性措施。但人类也会做出令理性外星生物费解的美好行为——我们为陌生人献血甚至捐献器官，甘愿承担自身健康风险。我们对可能永不再见的陌生人施以善意。

We eat foods that we know aren't good for us. We avoid small simple actions like exercising or flossing, preventative care that we know will pay off in the long run. But we also do some truly beautiful things, behaviors that might puzzle those rational aliens. We donate blood or even an organ to someone in need and at real risk to our own health. We're kind to strangers who, in many cases, we'll never even see again.

我也好奇外星生命会如何解读人类的幸福体验。那些促进我们福祉的事物，在绝对理性的存在眼中想必既复杂又违背直觉。可惜我大概没机会与《星际迷航》中瓦肯人那样体现纯粹逻辑与自律的理性外星生命探讨人类行为异常性。不过本期节目让我有幸实现次优选择——对话诺贝尔经济学奖得主。

I also wonder what those aliens would make of the way humans experience happiness. How complex and counterintuitive, the things that promote our well-being must look to a totally rational being. Unfortunately, it's unlikely I'll ever get a chance to chat with a rational extraterrestrial, like one of the Vulcans from Star Trek, those creatures who embody pure logic and self discipline about the anomalies of human behavior. But in this episode, I get the chance to do the next best thing. I get to chat with a Nobel Prize winning economist.

虽然正如本期节目所示，这位得主完全打破了刻板印象。

Although, as you'll hear in this episode, he doesn't exactly fit the stereotype.

自我介绍一下，我是理查德·塞勒，芝加哥大学布斯商学院行为经济学教授。

Let's see. What's my name? I'm Richard Thaler. I'm a professor of behavioral economics at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business.

您作为诺贝尔奖得主，难道不该在结尾来个震撼退场吗？

You don't mic drop the, like, end Nobel laureate?

怎么说？你...

You know? Did you

带奖牌了吗？会随身揣着奖牌以备视频时展示吗？

bring it? Did you bring the medal? Like, do you bring it in your pocket in case you pull it up on video?

有点重。所以我我不。

It's a little heavy. So I I don't.

理查德·塞勒博士早在二十世纪八十年代就开始撰写他的开创性著作《赢家的诅咒：经济生活中的悖论与异常》。因此，你可能会惊讶于我将它列入这个关于2025年我最喜爱书籍的系列。但在创作这本改变我对人类行为思考方式的书籍几十年后，理查德正在与一位新合著者合作，重新出版这本书，加入了新的研究和关于日常生活中非理性行为的新思考。

Doctor Richard Thaler started writing his seminal book, The Winner's Curse, Paradoxes and Anomalies of Economic Life, all the way back in the nineteen eighties. So you might be surprised to hear that I'm featuring it in this series about my favorite books of 2025. But several decades after creating the book that transformed the way I think about human behavior, Richard is republishing it with new research and new reflections on the irrationalities of everyday life, all with the help of a new coauthor.

我是亚历克斯·西马斯。我也是布斯商学院行为经济学和行为科学的教授。我没有什么诺贝尔奖得主的事迹可提。所以

My name is Alex Simas. I'm also a professor of behavioral economics and behavioral science at the Booth School of Business. I don't have any Nobel laureate stuff to mention. So

几年后你再来这个播客，我相信情况会有所不同。所以我们将《赢家的诅咒》作为2025年我最喜爱的书籍之一进行介绍。但这感觉有点奇怪，因为我记得我读《赢家的诅咒》时，还在研究生院。所以把它列为2025年我最喜爱的书籍之一，以及真正教会我重要东西的书籍之一，有点奇怪。但也许我会让理查德你来讲述这本书的起源故事。

You'll come back in a couple years on the podcast, and I'm sure things will be different. So we're featuring The Winner's Curse as one of my favorite books about 2025. But that feels kind of odd because I remember reading The Winner's Curse when I was, like, in graduate school. So it's kind of an odd book to have as my favorite book of 2025 and one of the books that really taught me important things. But maybe I'll have Richard, you set the stage of, like, the origin story of this book.

好的。是的。起源故事是大约四十年前，我当时和亚历克斯差不多年纪，刚从我的导师丹尼·卡尼曼那里度过一年回来。

Okay. Yeah. The origin story is when I was about Alex's age about forty years ago, I had just come back from spending a year with Danny Kahneman, my mentor.

为了提供背景，已故的丹尼·卡尼曼也是一位诺贝尔奖得主，但他是一位心理学家，我所在领域的重量级人物，被认为是行为经济学领域的先驱。理查德当时是康奈尔大学的一位年轻教授，正在卡尼曼的见解基础上开辟自己的道路。

Just for context, the late Danny Kahneman is also a Nobel Prize winner, but he was a psychologist, a heavyweight in my field who is credited with pioneering the field of behavioral economics. Richard, then a young professor at Cornell, was building on Kahneman's insights as he forged his own path.

有人建议我在一本名为《经济展望期刊》的新期刊上写一系列专栏。这本期刊面向普通经济学家。所以文章应该是非专业人士也能理解的。想法是在每一期中，我会写一些关于异常现象的内容。什么是异常现象？

And somebody suggested that I write a series of columns in a new journal called the Journal of Economic Perspectives. The journal was aimed at like the general economist. So it would be articles that non specialists could understand. The idea was in each issue, I would write about something, an anomaly. And what is an anomaly?

异常指的是出乎意料的事物，对吧？比如现实中出现的粉色大象就是异常。对经济学家而言，异常是理论认为不会发生的现象。例如价格上涨时需求反而增加，这会让我们感到惊讶。我从事这方面研究大约四年。

An anomaly is something that is unexpected, Right? So a pink elephant in real life would be an anomaly. For an economist, an anomaly is something that the theory says won't happen. Like if price goes up and demand goes up, that would surprise us. So I did this for about four years.

当积累的案例足够编成一本书时，我就把它们装订起来，命名为《赢家的诅咒》——这个引人入胜的短语本身就是其中一个异常现象。

And when I had enough of these that it looked like a book, I kind of stapled them together and called it the winner's curse because it's an intriguing phrase, and it was one of the anomalies.

那时候亚历克斯正处于人生完全不同的阶段。

At the time, Alex was in a very different place in life.

我那时刚出生。当时我在摩尔多瓦——东欧国家，就出生在那里。基本上这本书首次出版时我还不存在。

I was being born. How was it? I was in Moldova, at the time. I was born in Moldova in Eastern Europe. Basically, I wasn't around when the book was first first came out.

他在偷懒。

He was shirking.

没错。但后来我在圣地亚哥读研时与理查德相识，办公室恰巧相邻。我对行为经济学极感兴趣，但又特别害羞，不敢打扰他。最终鼓起勇气请教：'您觉得这个观点如何？那个想法怎么样？'

Yeah. But then, Richard and I met when I was a graduate student at San Diego, and our offices ended up being adjacent. And I was super interested in behavioral economics, super shy, kinda didn't wanna bug them. But eventually, I kinda got the courage to be like, what do you think about this idea? What do you think about that idea?

我们开始频繁交流。我第一份教职在卡内基梅隆大学，后来某个时机加入了布斯商学院。

We started chatting. I got my first faculty job at Carnegie Mellon. And then at some point, I I joined Booth.

就在几年前，这本书的出版商对我说，嘿，你知道的，这本书和你一样渐渐老去，即将绝版。或许你想给它增添些新意之类的。我想他们原本只打算换个新封面。而我却傻乎乎地觉得，也许我们可以做些更有野心的尝试。

And then a few years ago, the publisher of this book said, hey. You know, this book is getting old like you, and it's gonna go out of print. Maybe you wanna freshen it up or something. And I think they had in mind a new cover. And stupidly, I thought, oh, well, maybe there's something more ambitious we could do.

对我来说倒是幸运，不过对你而言可能有点犯傻。

Fortunately for me, by the way. Maybe stupidly for you.

是啊。后来我灵机一动找亚历克斯来帮忙。当时我手头积攒了一堆异常案例——这本书出版后我又补充了六七个。问题在于，这已经是四十年后了。

Yeah. Well, I got the clever idea to get Alex to help. So I had this pile of anomalies. I wrote another half dozen of these after the book came out. And the question was, you know, it's forty years later.

这些内容还经得起考验吗？这就是我们的初衷。

How does this stuff hold up? So that was the concept.

我们通电话时，这事听起来简单直接，好像六个月就能搞定。结果完全不是那么回事，我们花了将近四年才真正完成。主要是因为全书有三分之二都是全新内容。

We got on the phone, and it sounded kind of straightforward and easy. Like, let's knock this thing out in six months. Ended up being anything but that. It took us about four years now to actually finish it up. That's largely because two thirds of the book is brand new.

新版《赢家的诅咒》不仅收录了理查德八十年代开始研究的原始异常现象，还包括检验这些旧观点是否适应当代的新研究。

The new version of the winner's curse includes the original anomalies Richard began exploring in the eighties, but also new research examining whether the old ideas hold up today.

真正关键的是这些结论在实证稳健性上的表现——结果是否被复现？它们是否在现实世界中显现？要知道原始结果大多来自大学生实验室实验，有些案例样本量较小（当然也有例外）。而如今，四十年过去了。

Really, how this has held up in terms of the empirical robustness of the results. Have these results been replicated? Do they show up in the real world? Like, the original results were largely, you know, with some exceptions in lab experiments with college students, relatively small samples in some cases. And, you know, we've had forty years.

已有数百次重复实验。我们现在处于什么阶段？书中部分内容（我们始终强调这一点）是我们亲自复制了所有研究。结果非常稳健，每一项都得到了复现。

There's been hundreds of replications. Where are we now? So part of the book, and we emphasize this throughout, is we went ahead and we replicated all of the studies ourselves. The findings are really robust. Everything replicates.

所有研究都已被复现。

Everything has been replicated.

书中探讨的反常现象，全都关乎人类行为与所谓标准经济模型——即瓦肯人和经济学家通常期待的理性行为模型——之间出人意料的差异。

The anomalies the book explores are all about the surprising ways humans act differently from what's known as the standard economic model, the model of rational behavior that both Vulcans and economists tend to expect from us.

标准经济模型实质上是认为人们（经济学家称之为'代理人'）通过最优化来解决问题。比如你今天选择哪条路线来办公室？你选了最佳路线。为什么做这个播客？因为这是你时间的最佳利用方式。

The standard economic model is really that people, or as economists call them, agents solve problems by optimizing. So what route did you take to get to your office today? You took the best route. Why are you doing this podcast? Because it's the best possible use of your time.

这点加上市场机制，正是经济学与心理学等学科的区别所在。

That plus markets. That is what distinguishes economics from psychology, say.

因此这种'以最优方式运作的代理人'在市场中互动的理念，形成了对人类决策行为的特定认知。这就是常被称为'经济人'的概念。给我讲讲'经济人101'吧——这个理论中的典型个体究竟会怎么做？

And so this idea of these agents that are optimized in the best way, interacting in these markets, produce a certain kind of view of what people tended to do when making these decisions. And that's what's often been called homoeconomicus. Give me the, like, homoeconomicus one zero one. Like, you know, what do we think this guy is out there doing?

经济人是完全理性的行为者，遵循理性原则。他们具有理性预期，没有记忆缺陷，不受现实世界任何偏见影响，是彻底理性的存在。

Homoeconomicus is a rational agent who, bays principles of rationality. So they have rational expectations. They don't have any memory issues. They don't have any sorts of biases of what's out there in the real world. They're fully rational.

他们将信念作为输入，然后进行优化。基于对世界的正确认知，他们做出最佳决策。

They take these beliefs as inputs, and then they optimize. They make the best decision given their correct beliefs about the world.

需要补充的是，这些主体都是自私的混蛋，所以除了可能（但也未必）关心家人外，他们根本不在乎其他人。而且他们也没有自制力问题。因此这个世界不需要任何减肥药，每个人的体重都恰到好处。

We should add that these agents are also selfish jerks, so they don't really care about anybody else, possibly members of their family, though possibly not. And they also have no self control problems. So no need for any weight loss drugs in this world. Everybody weighs just the right amount.

没有匿名戒酒会，没有酗酒者。除非真心想要，否则没人会染上毒瘾。

No AA, No alcoholics. Nobody gets addicted to drugs unless they really want to.

而且无需为退休储蓄担忧。人们自然会这么做，否则老了就得挨饿。

And, no need to worry about saving for retirement. People will do that because, otherwise, they're gonna starve when they're old.

当然，你说这些时带着明显的戏谑，因为现实中人们往往并非如此。我们身处一个存在戒酒会、减肥药和未储备退休金者的世界。这些正是你在书中指出的反常现象——那些你观察后感叹'嘿，人们本应遵循标准经济模型，却偏偏没有'的案例。这对人类心理意味着什么？

Of course, you're saying all this stuff quite facetiously because real people don't tend to do this. We are in a world with AA and weight loss drugs and people who haven't saved for retirement. And these are the kinds of anomalies that you pointed out in your book, these cases where you looked and you said, hey. People are supposed to be obeying the standard economic model, and they're just not. And so what does that mean for human psychology?

或许我们该如何避免这些反常，特别是在它们对我们造成伤害和困扰的情况下？这就是今天我想探讨的。我想重点讨论你在书中提到的我最喜欢的六个反常现象。但第一个令我着迷的反常，就是以书名命名的'赢家诅咒'。那么亚历克斯，请用著名的罐子案例来解释这个反常现象吧。

And maybe how can we avoid these anomalies, especially in cases where they're kind of hurting us and messing us up? And so that's what I wanna go through today. I wanna go through my favorite of your anomalies that you cover in the book, six of these. But anomaly number one that I love is the anomaly that the book is named for, the so called winner's curse. So, Alex, tell me what the winner's curse is with the famous jar example showing this anomaly.

好的。想象你带着装满硬币的罐子走进酒吧。罐子里有特定金额的钱。然后你对所有酒客说：听着，谁对这个罐子出价最高，谁就能得到罐子和里面所有的钱。

Yeah. So imagine you go into a bar with a jar of coins. The jar has a certain amount of money in it. And then you tell everybody at the bar, look. Whoever bids the most for this jar gets the jar and all the money that's in the jar.

什么是赢家的诅咒？很简单。赢得罐子的人最终会亏钱，因为他们的出价会高于罐子里实际的钱数。所以他们得到了罐子，带回家。

What's the winner's curse? Pretty simple. The person who wins the jar will end up losing money in the sense that their bid is gonna be higher than the amount of money that's in the jar. So they'll get the jar. They go home.

他们把所有的钱倒出来，然后说，哦，糟糕。我付了20美元，这里面只有15美元。这就是赢家的诅咒——通过赢得拍卖，你实际上在亏损。

They take all the money out. They're like, oh, crap. I paid $20. This has $15 in it. So that's the winner's curse that by winning the auction, you're actually losing.

罐子的例子很容易演示。你可以在课堂上做。理查德，我相信你以前在课堂上做过这个。

The jar example is really kind of easy to demonstrate. You could do it in a class. Richard, you've done this in a class before, I'm sure.

你在教室里做这个，但你在酒吧里做过吗？这是你的酒吧把戏吗？

You do it in classrooms, but do you ever do it in a bar? Is this, your bar trick?

最好是个友好的酒吧。

It better be a friendly bar.

我可不想挨揍。

I don't wanna get beaten up.

所以这是酒吧版本，你知道，经济学家谈论的那种玩具版本。但你谈到了很多我们在现实生活中看到的例子。直到我读了你的书才知道的一个有趣的例子是石油公司的情况。理查德，石油公司是如何陷入这种赢家的诅咒的？

So that's the bar version, you know, the kind of toy version that economists talk about. But you've talked about lots of examples where we see this in real life. A curious example I didn't know till I read your book was the case of oil companies. Richard, kind of how do oil companies fall prey to this winner's curse?

是的。实际上，冬季诅咒是由一家名为Arco公司的石油工程师发现的。当时石油公司正在竞标墨西哥湾某块土地的租赁权。我们仍沿用原名——墨西哥湾。他们发现每次中标后，实际石油储量总是低于工程师们的预测。

Yeah. In fact, the winter's curse was discovered by oil engineers at a company that was called Arco. Oil companies were bidding for leases for a certain plot of land in the Gulf Of Mexico. We're gonna still stick with the original name, the Gulf Of Mexico. And what they found was that every time they won one of these auctions, there was less oil there than their engineers had predicted.

他们不禁质疑：是工程师水平太差？还是我们运气不好？最终发现真相是：当竞标者众多时，中标者必定是对该地块储量预测最乐观的团队。

And they're saying, what's the story? Lousy engineers? Or are we just unlucky? And then they figured out, no. Actually, it's that if there are lots of people bidding, the winner is gonna be the one whose engineers on this plot had the most optimistic forecasts.

胜者克里斯·邓斯特的事实表明，我们忽略了关键点：如果所有人都在竞标，意味着罐子里的钱比我预想的少；或者如果其他石油工程师的出价都比我低，可能我对实际石油储量的判断有误。换位思考失败是我们播客常讨论的话题，因为它们往往以糟糕的方式影响我们的幸福感。比如我们意识不到他人想与我们建立联系，或不知道我们心存感激，也不明白他们完全可以向我们求助。

And the winner's Chris Dumpster in the fact that we're not tracking the fact that, well, hey. If everybody's bidding that there's less money in this jar than I think or if all the other oil engineers are bidding less than I am for this oil, maybe I'm wrong about how much oil or money is really out there. Perspective taking failures are ones that we talk about a lot on this podcast because many of them really impact our happiness in these bad ways. Right? We don't realize that other people wanna connect with us, or we don't realize that other people don't know we're super grateful or don't know that it'd be fine if they asked us for help.

幸福科学中有大量案例显示，换位思考失败会破坏我们从人际交往中可能获得的幸福感。但讽刺的是，这里它似乎正在削弱我们从胜利中获得的价值。那么如何克服赢家诅咒？如何更多考虑他人的出价和视角来打破这个魔咒？

So there's all these cases in the happiness science where perspective taking failures kind of mess up how much happiness we could be getting from other people. But this is one where it seems to be messing up a lot of the value that we get from winning, like, quite ironically. Yeah. And so how do we overcome the winner's curse? How do we take into account what other people are bidding and other people's perspectives a little bit more to break this?

有个简单法则：实际竞标中，竞标者越多，你的出价就该越低。这建议非常反直觉——假设亚历克斯在酒吧拍卖硬币罐，原本有10个朋友参与竞标，突然又进来20人。这时亚历克斯的所有朋友都应降低出价，虽然这很难理解。

Well, a simple lesson is in the actual bidding circumstances, the more bidders there are, the less you should bid. Now that is really counterintuitive advice. If Alex is auctioning off this jar of coins, and there are 10 of his friends at the bar, and then 20 more people come in, and we let them bid. All of Alex's friends should lower their bids. And that's just hard to get your head around.

没错，我的直觉反应完全相反。

Yeah. I feel like my intuition is exactly the opposite.

正是。因为你的直觉是'想赢'。但真正目标应该是：如果中标，确保出价低于实际价值。这种反直觉正是人们犯错的原因。

Right. It's because you have the intuition, oh, wanna win. No. The goal should be to submit a bid that if it wins, it will be lower than the amount of money. It's very counterintuitive, which is why people get it wrong.

这是个典型的反常现象。

It's a classic anomaly.

好的。那么这是我的第一个观点。第二个经典的非理性行为，让我对人类感到欣慰的是，人们并不像经济学家认为的那样是自私自利的混蛋。你在描述经济人时提到过，经济人只为自己谋利。但请解释为什么标准经济理论在某种程度上预测了这一点。

Okay. So that was my number one. Number two classic irrationality, which is one that just makes me feel good about the human race, is that people aren't the self interested jerks that economists think they are. You mentioned this in your description of homoeconomicus, that homoeconomicus is just out for themselves. But explain why standard economic theory sort of predicts that in a sense.

经济学家曾讨论过一个人人对他人都漠不关心的世界。二十世纪伟大的经济学家之一保罗·萨缪尔森，写过一篇关于他所谓的公共物品问题的论文。公共物品是指一旦提供给一个人，就相当于提供给所有人的东西，比如烟花表演。他说这类物品会供应不足，因为没人愿意贡献，毕竟可以免费观看。当然，现实中人们确实会向慈善机构、公共广播电台等各种公益事业捐款。

Economists have talked about a world in which people don't care at all about anybody else. Paul Samuelson, one of the great economists of the twentieth century, wrote a paper about what he called the public goods problem. A public good is something that if you provide to one person, you provide to everybody like a fireworks display. And he said it will be under provided because no one will contribute because they can watch it for free. Now, of course people do contribute to charities and to public radio and all kinds of other good causes.

如果你睁开眼睛看看窗外，就会发现人们并非总是自私的混蛋。

If you open your eyes and look out the window, you'll notice that people aren't always selfish jerks.

这也是实验者在研究赢家诅咒时开始注意到的现象。亚历克斯，告诉我早期文献中讨论过哪些关于自私行为的经典违背案例。

And this is the kind of thing that experimenters were starting to notice around the time of the winner's curse too. Alex, tell me about some of the classic violations of selfishness that folks talked about early in the literature.

真正的反常现象出现在维尔纳·古特和他的同事们进行所谓的最后通牒游戏时。这个游戏极其简单。比如我和理查德在玩最后通牒游戏。我有10美元，决定如何与理查德分配。我向他发出最后通牒。

The real anomaly came when Werner Guth and his colleagues ran something called the ultimatum game. It's super simple. So Richard and I are playing the ultimatum game. I have $10, and I decide how to split that with Richard. I give him ultimatum.

我是提议者，理查德是接受者。理查德看到我给他的报价。假设我说：听着，我喜欢钱。

I'm the proposer. Richard is the receiver. Richard sees my offer to him. Let's say I say, look. I like money.

我要留9美元。给理查德1美元。然后理查德说，我想要这一美元。一切顺利。我最终得到9美元。

I'm gonna keep $9. I'm gonna give a buck to Richard. And then Richard says, I want the dollar. Everything's fine. I end up with 9.

理查德最终得到1美元。但如果理查德拒绝，我们俩都一无所获。

Richard ends up with one. But if Richard says no, both of us end up with zero.

嗯。所以如果‘经济人’是提议者，他应该给，比如说1便士，对吧，自己留下9.99美元。如果理查德是‘经济人’，他会想，哇，1便士总比没有强。我应该接受。

Mhmm. And so if Homo economicus is the proposer, he should give, you know, 1p, right, and keep $9.99 for himself. And if Richard is a homoeconomicus, Richard would be like, wow. 1p is better than nothing. I should go for that.

但如果你和真实人类玩这个游戏，如果你从10美元里只给1便士，大多数人会骂着拒绝。你个混蛋。我宁愿吃亏也不让你得逞，懂吗？那么古斯在最初的最后通牒游戏实验中发现什么了？

But if you're playing with real humans, if you offer 1p of your $10, most real humans are like, expletive you. You jerk. Like, you know, I'll, like, take a hit. Right? And so what did Guth find in the original ultimatum game effects?

人们是‘经济人’，还是会爆几句粗口？

Are people homoeconomicus, or do they throw some expletives in there?

他的发现正是人们并非‘经济人’。基本上，低于总额20%的报价会被拒绝。如果我给不到2美元，理查德就会拒绝。我们俩都空手而归。这真是个谜。

That's exactly what he found is basically people are not homoeconomicus. Essentially, under 20% of the pie, those offers are rejected. So if I offer something less than $2, Richard's gonna reject my offer. Both of us end up with nothing. And so this is a real puzzle.

所以提议者给多少钱的决定可能受多种因素影响。但真正的谜团是接收者宁愿什么都不要，也不接受2美元。

So the proposer's decision of how much to give, that could be driven by a lot of different things. But the real puzzle is the receiver saying, I would prefer nothing to $2.

所以在这种情况下，就像那些标准经济学游戏，我们实际上是在设置这些有点人为的情景。

So this is in the case of these, like, standard economics games where we're really setting up these kinda arbitrary situations.

你知道，

You know,

我给你10美元。这些是非常具体的规则。但人们也发现，当你给他们更多现实世界的背景时，他们会比你预期的更友善。理查德，告诉我那些著名的钱包研究，以及它们如何显示人们比我们想象的更友善。

I'm giving you $10. It's these really specific rules. But folks were also finding that people are nicer than you expect when you give them more real world context. Richard, tell me about these famous wallet studies and how it showed that people were nicer than we think.

是的。有一个叫阿兰·科恩的人，他在这里做了一段时间的博士后。他进行了一个难以置信的雄心勃勃的项目，他们会拿一个小钱包，里面有一些身份证明，假设是亚历克斯的钱包，上面有他的电子邮件地址之类的信息，有时有钱，有时有钥匙。然后他们会把它交到某个地方，比如酒店大堂或火车站。他们在世界各地这样做了数千次。

Yeah. So there's a guy called Alain Cohn who was a postdoc here for a while. And he undertook this unbelievably ambitious project where they would take a little wallet that would have some kind of ID, suppose it's Alex's wallet, and it has something like his email address on it and sometimes money and sometimes a key. And they would turn it in at some place like a hotel lobby or a train station. And they did this thousands of wallets all around the world.

问题是，人们会怎么做？如果钱包里有钱，他们更有可能还是更不可能尝试找到钱包的主人？如果人们是自私的混蛋，钱包里的钱越多，他们就越不可能上交。

And the question is, what do people do? Are they more or less likely to try and find the owner of the wallet if it has money in it? And if people are selfish jerks, the more money that's there, the less likely they are to turn it in.

或者至少不会带着钱上交。至少不会带着

Or at least to turn it in with the money. At least to turn

钱上交。是的。是的。没错。是的。

it in with money. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Yeah.

相反的情况也会发生。钱越多，就越有可能连同钱一起归还给虚构的主人。

And the opposite happens. The more money that's there, the more likely that it gets returned with the money to the fictional owner.

所以这些是标准经济模型中的异常现象，但从人性角度来看却相当美好——我们天生就不是自私的混蛋。但根据所有这些证据，我想问你的问题是：我们该如何让人们变得更加合作？有没有办法进一步减少这种自私行为？

And so these are anomalies when it comes to the standard economic model, but they're kinda great when it comes to human nature that we're kind of naturally not selfish jerks. But a question I had for you given all the evidence is what can we do to get people to become even more cooperative? Are there ways that we can bump this lack of selfishness up even more?

是的。研究表明，关键在于人际间的联系程度。在任何潜在交换或决策发生前进行沟通，都能促进更多合作、减少自私行为。人们通过相互了解建立联系，这种亲近感会显著降低自私倾向。

Yeah. So one of the things that's been shown to matter a lot is how much people can connect interpersonally. So any sort of communication between people before some sort of potential exchange takes place or any sort of decision takes place facilitates more cooperative, less selfish behavior. People kinda get to know each other. That connection brings them closer together, and then they're a lot less selfish.

这是直观提升合作的第一种方式。其次，社会规范也起重要作用——包括对不合作者的惩罚机制。当把这些规范引入抽象博弈实验时，合作率会大幅提升。行为经济学中最显著的发现之一就是：在标准公共物品博弈中，若允许参与者自费惩罚搭便车者（这本身也是个反常现象）...

So that's one thing that really very intuitively boosts cooperation. The other thing is that in society, we have a bunch of norms. Some of those norms involve punishment of people who don't cooperate. And when you introduce these sorts of norms into these kind of very abstract games, turns out that boosts cooperation tremendously. It's one of the largest effects in the behavioral economics literature is that when you take a standard sort of abstract game where people can contribute to the public good or something like that, If you introduce the opportunity for other people to punish noncooperators at a cost to themselves, by the way, which is itself an anomaly.

按标准经济模型，自费惩罚他人是 irrational 的。但事实上人们确实会惩罚。正是这种惩罚威胁促使所有人选择合作。这就像微型社会模型：当群体互动中加入现实世界的规范与惩罚机制时，世界就变得不那么自私了。

The standard economic model, if it cost me something to punish somebody else, I would never do it. But turns out, people do. And because there's this threat of punishment, everybody ends up cooperating. So this is kind of like a little model of society where you take a group of people interacting. You introduce the types of things that we see in the real world, like norms and the ability to punish, and all of a sudden, the world looks a lot less selfish.

看来这些反常现象还带来有趣的幸福启示：第一，我们可以比想象中更信任他人；第二，通过更多社交连接和建立惩罚违规者的规范，能进一步提升合作——这些本来就有益于幸福感。

And so it seems like there's some fun happiness implications from this anomaly. It seems like happiness implication number one is like, we can just trust people more than we might think. The other is that there's ways you can boost cooperation even more, talk to people more, get more social connection, which honestly is great for happiness anyway, and if possible, give people the opportunity to set up norms where you can call out bad actors, which is good.

没错。研究发现信任能催生可信行为。我在旧书里提过康奈尔大学所在的伊萨卡农场摊——农民用诚信系统卖玉米，顾客自觉投币付款。今年夏天Alex和行为经济学朋友们在瑞士阿尔卑斯山徒步时，还发现了个自助售卖葡萄酒奶酪的摊点。

Yeah. The one finding is that if you are trusting, you produce more trustworthy behavior. You know, in the old book, I talked about farm stands in Ithaca, where I used to teach at Cornell, where a farmer would put out fresh corn on the honor system. And people would put money in the box. And Alex and some of our behavioral economics friends were out hiking in the Swiss Alps this summer and came across a place that had wine and cheese.

他们在卖什么，亚历克斯？

What what were they selling, Alex?

那里有，比如，你知道，这些像是藏在阿尔卑斯山中的小木屋。周围没有人。你走进去。里面有葡萄酒和奶酪的摆设。你想拿多少就拿多少，然后把钱放进小盒子里就可以离开了。

There was, like, know, these, like, little cabins in secluded in the Alps. There's nobody there. You come in. There's a wine and cheese setup. You take however much you want, then you put your money in the little box and you leave.

比起康奈尔，这没那么别致，我想，就像是新鲜玉米对比非常棒的法国葡萄酒。不过确实如此。

It's less quaint than Cornell, I guess, than, like, fresh corn versus really nice French wine. But yeah.

但你必须徒步上去才能

But you have to hike up there to

拿到它。广告之后，我们将深入探讨更多我最喜欢的非理性行为，比如为什么我一直付钱给一个我只去过一次的健身房，以及为什么我积攒的飞行里程这么难兑换。《幸福实验室》马上回来。AutoTrader由Auto Intelligence驱动，这是一种超级个性化的购车方式。AutoTrader的工具会根据您的确切预算和偏好同步，完全为您量身定制购车体验。

get it. Coming up after the break, we'll dive into more of my favorite irrationalities, like why I keep paying for a gym that I've only ever used once, and why it's so hard to actually redeem the frequent flyer miles I've been hoarding. The Happiness Lab will be right back. AutoTrader is powered by Auto Intelligence, the hyper personalized way to buy a car. AutoTrader's tools sync with your exact budget and preferences to tailor the car shopping experience totally to you.

预算功能让您输入信息以查看符合您价格范围的列表。搜索和库存功能帮助您锁定梦想之车。您可以选择新车或二手车，车型，以及发动机大小、颜色等特性，甚至包括是否需要拖车挂钩。尽管挑剔些。不用担心无休止地滚动浏览。

Budgeting lets you input your info to see listings in your price range. Search and inventory helps zero in on your dream car. You can choose from new or pre owned, the style of the car, and the features like engine size, color, all the way down to whether you want a trailer hitch. Go ahead and get picky. Don't worry about scrolling endlessly.

由Auto Intelligence驱动的Auto Trader只根据您能负担得起和您想要的车辆来展示给您。价格功能显示哪些列表是最划算的交易，这样您无需谈判就能感觉自己赢得了谈判。您甚至可以选择如何完成交易，在线、在经销商处，或两者结合。由Auto Intelligence驱动的AutoTrader让购车过程不再繁琐。今天就试试吧。访问autotrader.com找到您的完美座驾。

Auto Trader powered by auto intelligence only shows you vehicles based on what you can afford and what you want, And pricing shows you which listings are the best deal, so you can feel like you're winning the negotiation without negotiating. You can even choose how to close the deal, online, at the dealership, or a little of both. Autotrader powered by auto intelligence makes the process of buying a car less of a process. Try it today. Visit autotrader.com to find your perfect ride.

在当今竞争异常激烈的商业环境中，优势属于那些更努力、行动更迅速、并不断升级所有工具的人。T-Mobile深谙此道。根据Ookla网速测试专家的评估，他们现在拥有最佳网络，并正利用这一网络推出Super Mobile——首个也是唯一一个集智能性能、内置安全性和无缝卫星覆盖于一体的商业计划。借助Supermobile，您的性能、安全性和覆盖范围都将得到超级提升。实时自适应网络确保您的业务即使在需求高峰期也能保持巅峰运行状态。

In today's super competitive business environment, the edge goes to those who push harder, move faster, and level up every tool in their arsenal. T Mobile knows all about that. They're now the best network according to the experts at an Ookla speed test, and they're using that network to launch Super Mobile, the first and only business plan to combine intelligent performance, built in security, and seamless satellite coverage. With Supermobile, your performance, security, and coverage are supercharged. With a network that adapts in real time, your business stays operating at peak capacity even in times of high demand.

通过全美首个5G Advanced网络的内置安全功能，您可以为团队和客户守护隐私数据。借助全球最大卫星移动通信星座的无缝覆盖，您的整个团队即使在没有地面信号时也能保持通讯畅通。这就是您的业务超级升级版。了解更多请访问supermobile.com。美国大多数户外可见天空区域均可通过兼容设备实现无缝覆盖。

With built in security on the first nationwide five gs advanced network, you keep private data private for you, your team, your clients. And with seamless coverage from the world's largest satellite to mobile, Constellation, your whole team can text and stay updated even when they're off the grid. That's your business, supercharged. Learn more at supermobile.com. Seamless coverage with compatible devices in most outdoor areas in The US where you can see the sky.

最佳网络基于Ookla对Speedtest智能数据2025年1月的分析结果。

Best network based on analysis by Ookla of Speedtest Intelligence Data one h twenty twenty five.

《幸福实验室》由Amica保险荣誉赞助。正如Amica所言：共情是我们最好的保单。从倾听您的保险需求到理赔后续服务，Amica始终以关怀之心提供保障。作为互助保险公司，Amica专为客户而建，以您为先。这不正是保险应有的样子吗？

The Happiness Lab is proudly sponsored by Amica Insurance. As Amica says, empathy is our best policy. From listening to your insurance needs to following up after a claim, Amica provides coverage with care and compassion. Because as a mutual insurer, Amica is built for its customers and prioritizes you. Isn't that the way insurance should be?

Amica重视您的安心保障。立即访问amica.com获取报价。好的，现在我们来探讨第三个非理性现象——这也是我个人深有体会的——人类似乎比标准经济模型预测的更容易受惯性影响。理查德，请为我们讲解那个揭示人们惯性问题的经典马克杯实验。

At Amica, your peace of mind matters. Visit amica.com and get a quote today. Alright. So now we're moving on to irrationality number three, something that I struggle with a lot personally, which is that as humans, we seem to have more of a problem with inertia than the standard economic model might predict. Richard, tell me about the classic mug study that showed us the problems that people face with inertia.

没错。这个现象我最初称之为'禀赋效应'，因为禀赋即指你拥有的东西。实证研究表明，我们对已拥有物品的估值往往高于我们愿意支付获取它的价格。

Yeah. So this is something that I originally called the endowment effect because your endowment is something you own. And the empirical result is that we value stuff we have more than we would be willing to pay to get it.

那么不妨让我和亚历克斯做个实验。如果要设计一个关于我的禀赋效应研究，你会如何操作呢？

So maybe have me and Alex play. If you were putting me in an endowment effect study, how would you do it?

你和亚历克斯同在一个班级，彼此相邻而坐。我四处走动，给你们其中一半人发了一个耶鲁大学的咖啡杯，杯子上印着‘Bula Bula’之类的字样。

You and Alex are in a class sitting next to each other. And I go around and I give half of you a Yale University coffee mug that says Bula Bula or something on on the mug.

Bula Bula，当然，对于不了解的人来说，这是耶鲁的战斗口号。书店里确实有这种杯子。没错，是的，对。

Bula Bula, which, of course, for those that don't know, is the Yale fight chant. There are literally those mugs in the bookstore. So yeah. So yep. Yep.

然后我们说，好吧。接下来我们要为这些杯子建立一个市场。劳瑞，你有一个杯子，我们会问你，在以下每个价格点上，你愿意出售它吗？比如10美元、9美元、50美元，依此类推。而亚历克斯则会被问及，在这些价格点上，你愿意购买一个吗？

And then we say, alright. What we're gonna do is we're gonna have a market for these mugs. Laurie, you have a mug and you're asked for each of the following prices, are you willing to sell it or not? So $10.09 50, so forth down. And Alex is asked, at each of these prices, you willing to buy one?

经济学理性的一个原则是，如果你不愿意花6美元去获得它，那么你应该愿意以6美元的价格出售它。假设我们分发5美元的钞票，人们会愿意用它们交换6美元，但他们不会花6美元去获得一张，对吧？所以杯子应该像5美元的钞票一样。但当我们进行这些实验时，得到杯子的人要求放弃杯子的价格是那些随机没有得到杯子的人愿意支付的两倍。注意，我们不是在问你最喜欢的帽子。对吧？

Now a principle of economic rationality is if you wouldn't pay $6 to get it, then you should be willing to sell it for $6 Suppose we hand out $5 bills, well, people will be willing to trade those for $6 and they won't pay $6 to get one, right? So mugs should be like $5 bills. But when we run those experiments, the people who get mugs demand twice as much to give them up as the people who randomly didn't get a mug are willing to pay to get it. And notice, it's not like we're asking about your favorite hat. Right?

这个杯子在你手中大约只有两分钟，你并没有爱上它，但你的行为却像是爱上了它。

This mug has been in your possession for about two minutes, and you haven't grown to love it, but you act like you do.

所以，亚历克斯，解释一下为什么禀赋效应是我们表现出惰性的一个例子。因为我认为这是你在书中讨论的更广泛的一系列偏见的一部分，我觉得这些偏见非常引人入胜。

And so, Alex, explain why the endowment effect is an example of us showing inertia. Because I think that it's part of a broader set of biases that you talk about in the book that I find really fascinating.

是的。基本上，有一系列不同的偏见，本质上是在特定情境下观察到的效应，它们都是由同一种潜在心理驱动的，你可以将其描述为由损失厌恶驱动的惰性。特别是，看，我已经在这里了。我有这个东西或这个活动，或者你想怎么称呼它。

Yeah. So, basically, there's a bunch of different biases that are essentially an effect that's observed in a particular context that are kinda driven by the same sort of underlying psychology, which you can describe as inertia that is driven by something that we discuss as loss aversion. Particularly, look. I'm already here. I have this thing or this activity that I'm doing or whatever you wanna call it.

这现在差不多是我的现状。这就是我所在的位置。失去那个东西，那种失去真的让人痛苦。事实上，失去带来的痛苦大约是同等获得带来的快乐的两倍，有时甚至更多。这就是我们所说的损失厌恶。

This is now kind of my status quo. This is where I'm at. Lose that thing, and that loss really hurts. In fact, a loss hurts about twice, maybe sometimes more, than an equivalent gain feels good. This is what we call loss aversion.

这与理查德刚才提到的马克杯实验结果相符，因为人们要求卖出这个马克杯的价格是买家愿意支付的两倍。就好像失去这个马克杯在财务上对他们造成的打击是两倍。

And this fits with the mug results that Richard was just talking about because people are demanding twice as much to sell this mug as buyers are willing to buy. It's like losing the mug kind of hits them twice as hard financially.

没错。现在这个马克杯是我的。这差不多就是我的现状。放弃它会很痛苦，所以我需要更多的钱来补偿这种痛苦。

Exactly. Now this mug is mine. This is kinda now my status quo. Giving it up will hurt a lot, so I need more money to be compensated for that pain.

所以这是在那种玩具例子——卖马克杯的背景下。但这种现状惯性偏见是很多公司一直在利用的东西。我自己现在就有个例子。我花钱加入了一个健身房，作为这个夏季项目的一部分。我家附近有个很酷的攀岩馆，他们说我们有瑜伽课。

And so that's in the context of, again, this sort of toy example where you're selling mugs. But this kind of status quo inertia bias is something that lots of companies are using against us all the time. I have my own example right now. I have paid to join a gym as part of this summer program. This really cool bouldering gym near my house was like, we have yoga classes.

我当时想，哦，太好了。我要加入这个攀岩馆。结果这个夏天到目前为止，我上了一节非常昂贵的瑜伽课，价格是整个夏季的报名费。这就像是一节300美元的瑜伽课，真的很尴尬。但这就是我的现状偏见在起作用。

And I was like, oh, great. I'm gonna join the bouldering gym. And it turns out that so far this summer, I've had a very expensive single yoga class for the price of the entire summer enrollment. It's like a $300 yoga class, which is really embarrassing. But this is my status quo bias at work.

理查德，解释一下这是为什么。

Richard, explain why this is.

是的。我们的朋友，Stefano Della Vigna和Ulrike Malmende这对夫妇，在他们还是研究生的时候写了一篇关于这个的论文，题目叫《付钱不去健身房》，这正是劳瑞这个夏天所做的。你知道，这是一个所谓的现状偏见的例子。无论现状是什么，你倾向于坚持。我们都知道这种情况会发生。

Yeah. Our friends, the married couple of Stefano Della Vigna and Ulrike Malmende, wrote a paper about this when they were grad students that was called paying not to go to the gym, which is what Laurie did this summer. You know, this is an example of what's called status quo bias. Whatever the status quo is, you tend to stick with. We all know this happens.

假设你正在看某个节目。比如你在流媒体上看剧，一集结束后下一集自动开始。如果你什么都不做——人们特别擅长这个——你就会接着看下一集。不知不觉间，你已经连看了四集这个其实并不怎么有趣的情景喜剧，但你发现自己就这么看下去了。要知道，这个机制可以用在好事上，也能用在坏事上。

Suppose you're watching some show. Say you're streaming and an episode ends, and then the next one starts. So if you do nothing, which people are really good at, then you start watching the next one. And the next thing you know, you've watched four of this stupid sitcom that really wasn't all that much fun, but you just found yourself doing it. You know, you can use this for good or for bad.

企业已经摸透了这个门道。所以健身房会——提醒你劳瑞——他们会自动续订你的会员资格。

And firms have figured this out. So that gym, warning, Laurie, they are going to automatically renew your subscription.

确实如此。

It is true.

没错。而且你知道吗？今年秋天你只会去一次，因为你会更忙。所以我要帮你省笔钱，建议你现在就退订。

Yeah. Right. And you know what? You're only gonna go once this fall because you'll be even busier. So I'm gonna save you a lot of money here and suggest you quit now.

但我们曾把这个策略用在好事上。当新型退休计划，比如401k类计划刚出现时，有个问题是人们即使雇主提供等额匹配——这简直蠢透了——也不愿注册。于是我们想了个妙招：为什么不直接修改默认选项？比如告诉劳瑞：我们有个新退休计划，除非你填表声明不要，否则自动加入。

But we've used exactly that trick for good when the new kind of retirement plans, four zero one k type plans, first came on the scene. One of the problems was that people just didn't sign up even if their employer was matching their contributions dollar for dollar, which is really, really stupid. And so we got the clever idea. Why don't we just change the default and say, hey, Laurie. We have a new retirement plan.

砰！参保率立刻飙升到90%。注意，经济学家原以为这不会有任何效果，因为哪种白痴会拒绝6%薪资的等额匹配？不，没有白痴会说'就因为我得填一张表格'。但你看，仅靠这个改动，参保率就从50%涨到了90%。这就是把惯性用在好事上。而健身房自动续费是为了盈利，这两种情况我们都观察到了。

We're gonna put you in unless you fill out some form and say you don't want it. And boom. That gets enrollment up to 90%. And notice that's something economists would say will have no effect because what kind of idiot would turn down a dollar for dollar match of 6% of their salary? No.

政策制定中有许多这样的决策。自动续订健身会员是牟利行为，而自动加入退休计划则是善用惯性。我们见证了这两种应用。

No idiot would say, oh, because I have to fill out a one page form. But, you know, enrollments went from 50% to 90% just by doing that. So that was using inertia for good. Automatically renewing your gym membership is for profit, and we observed both. And there are lots of policy decisions.

有个悬而未决的规定，拜登政府最后几周通过了一项规则，要求你必须能以订阅时的相同方式取消订阅。如果订阅是一键完成，那么取消也应一键完成。疫情期间，有些健身房要求人们亲自去已关闭的实体店办理退会手续，这实在太恶劣了，对吧？

One that is a little up in the air, the last weeks of the Biden administration, they passed a rule saying that you have to be able to unsubscribe the same way you subscribed. So if it was with one click, it should be one click. Some gyms during during COVID were requiring people to come to the gym, which was closed in person to quit. That's really evil. Right?

这项规定目前尚不明确。我不知道它是否会强制执行，但我坚信这是个有益的规则。

So this rule is up in the air. I don't know whether it's going to be enforced or not, but I strongly believe that's a rule for good.

从惯性问题中获得的幸福启示似乎是：如果你被困在某种现状中，确保这是你喜欢的现状，或者建立对自己有益的现状。但要警惕自己是否仅仅因为习惯而固守某些事物。好，以上就是第三个非理性行为及其对幸福的有趣影响。现在我们来探讨第四个非理性行为，这对我们的幸福感影响极为重大。

So it seems like the happiness lesson from this problem we have with inertia is like, if you're stuck in some status quo, make sure it's a status quo that you like or build your own status quos that might be helpful. But try to notice when you're getting stuck in something just because it was the thing that you're used Yeah. Okay. So that was irrationality number three that I think has interesting implications for happiness. Now we get to irrationality number four, which is I think a very, very big one when it comes to our happiness.

这个概念就是经济学家阿瑟·庇古所说的'缺陷望远镜'。庇古所说的缺陷望远镜是什么意思？

And this is this idea that we have a defective telescope as economist Arthur Pigu put it. What does Pigu mean by a defective telescope?

其核心观点是：今天和明天的差异，看起来比一年中相隔两天的差异更大——这种认知是非理性的。比如劳丽会说，今天她忙着录播客没空退健身房会员，明天再办。

The idea is that the difference between today and tomorrow seems bigger than the difference between two days apart in a year, irrationally so. So Laurie is gonna say, well, today she's busy. She's taping this podcast. She doesn't have time to quit that gym. She's gonna do it tomorrow.

而到了明天又会有其他事情。我们都会拖延，这或许就是我们花了四年才完成这本简单修订版的原因。亚历克斯生了几个孩子，他情有可原。这种缺陷望远镜效应会影响诸如退休储蓄等事项，因为退休看起来还很遥远。

And tomorrow, there's gonna be something else. So we all procrastinate. That may be one reason it took us four years to do this simple revision of this book. Alex had a couple kids, so he has an excuse. So that defective telescope affects things like saving for retirement because retirement seems like it's a long way off.

嗯哼。然后某天你突然醒来，就变成我这样的老头了。

Mhmm. And then suddenly you wake up and you're old like me.

我是说，我要给听众们举一个更贴近生活的例子，毕竟他们可能不像你理查德这么年长，这个例子就是——

I mean, I'll give you an even closer to home example for listeners who might not be as old as you are, Richard, which

想象一下。

is Imagine that.

这正是你未来几周或几个月日历上会发生的事。知道吗？劳里，如果你今天问我：嘿，你愿意为一本听起来不怎么有趣的书写个章节吗？我会说，门儿都没有。

Which is just what's happening in your calendar weeks or months from now. You know? Today, Laurie, if you ask me, hey. Would you wanna write a chapter for a book that doesn't even sound that interesting? I'm like, no way.

但如果你问，十二月的劳里会愿意花时间写个听起来还行的章节吗？我就会想，天啊，十二月的劳里肯定乐意。她会很享受花时间做这件事。所以我感觉我的个人日历上全是过去劳里这种短视行为的案例。

But if you ask me, does December Laurie wanna put some time into writing a chapter that sounds kinda understand. I'm like, oh my god. December Laurie would love that. She would love to spend her time doing that thing. And so I feel like my personal calendar is filled with these instances of past Laurie's myopia.

就好像她莫名觉得，今天既要录播客访谈，又能应付一堆学生会议，还不用吃午饭，总能见缝插针塞进其他事。

Like, somehow she thought that, you know, doing this podcast interview today, it'd be totally fine to do that with a bunch of student meetings. And she doesn't need lunch that day. She'll just squeeze other things in.

说到解决这类问题的原则，我最喜欢的一条是：如果对方要你今天做这件事，你会答应吗？如果答案是否定的，那就别答应一年后的请求。因为除非发生重大变故，一年后的某天终将变成今天，到时候你就会傻眼，懂吗？

And I think that, you know, in terms of, like, rules in order to kinda solve these sorts of issues, my favorite one is what if the person asked you to do that today? Would you do it? If the answer is no, don't do it a year from now. Because a year from now, unless something real bad happens, will at some point become today, and you will be like, holy You know?

没错。这个观点太有力了。这种有缺陷的远见带来的最大幸福隐患，就是我们总在坑未来的自己。

Yeah. No. I think I think this is so powerful. Right? Because I think one of the big happiness implications of this defective telescope is that we're just constantly screwing over our future selves.

有趣的是，我们最近在一档播客中讨论了另一种‘亏待未来自己’的方式，我很想知道行为经济学家如何看待这种现象。他们总在讨论短视行为案例，但幸福学研究者常将其视为所谓的‘远视症’——即你把美好事物不断囤积给未来，却从未真正享受过。比如我积攒的航空里程，手头有10万积分总想着‘总有一天要用’，却从未真正规划过假期；又或是好友送的那瓶生日好酒。

Interestingly, we talked recently on a podcast about a different way we screw over our future selves that I'd be curious to think how behavioral economists think about this. Behavioral economists are constantly talking about cases of myopia, but happiness scientists often consider these cases of what's called hyperopia, right, where you kind of wind up saving these good things for the future that you never end up enjoying. I'm So thinking of cases of, like, my frequent flyer miles. I'm sitting on a 100,000 frequent flyer miles that I'm like, someday I wanna enjoy these, but I never actually planned the vacation to use them. Or, you know, a really nice bottle of wine that a good friend gave me for a birthday.

我总想着‘要等到特别的日子再开’，结果永远没开封。多年后可能发现酒已变质，而我也早忘了这回事。行为经济学家会研究这类‘远视症’案例吗？

And I'm like, oh, I wanna wait for the special day to use that. And then I never use it. And years later, I'll probably open it, and it's corked, and I've forgotten about it. Are there hyperopic cases that behavioral economists think about?

是的。我的学生Suzanne Chu提出个例子：假设厨房台面上放着两个番茄，一个是完美的‘上帝番茄’，另一个已过期两天。

Yeah. So I have a student named Suzanne Chu, and she talks about the example that you have two tomatoes sitting on your kitchen counter. And one is perfect. It's like God's tomato. And one is two days past.

今晚你吃哪个？在我家，我们把完美番茄称为‘苏珊娜的番茄’。我妻子比我节俭，她无法忍受浪费那个勉强还能吃的番茄，而我总想选完美的那个。

Which one do you eat tonight? And in my family, we refer to the perfect one as Suzanne's tomato. My wife is more frugal than me, and she can't bear the thought of throwing away that almost still good tomato, whereas I always wanna go for the perfect one.

这很关键——如果你等到明天，‘苏珊娜的番茄’也会变得不新鲜了。

And that's important because if you wait till tomorrow, Suzanne's tomato is gonna be not so good too.

问题在于你永远吃不到‘苏珊娜的番茄’。所以当它还在时，你就该立刻享用它。

You never eat Suzanne's tomato. That's the problem. So you gotta go for Suzanne's tomato when it's there.

我们的朋友George Lowenstein在书中提出了‘预期效用’理论。就像你们讨论的名贵红酒或飞行里程，你总在为某个幻想中的完美时刻囤积——比如未来某个惊艳的晚宴，你打开酒瓶，一切尽善尽美。

Our friend George Lowenstein has and we talk about this in the book, This idea of anticipatory utility. You know, you were talking about a nice bottle of wine or all of these travel miles or something like that. You're kinda saving it for something. You have this dream in your head that there's gonna be this perfect event where you open up the bottle, you have this incredible dinner party, everything is amazing. It's gonna happen at some point in the future.

这让你能够持续想象那件事即将发生，从而在一段时间内为你提供某种幸福感。而这种预期效用会导致人们过度将美好的事物安排到未来。

And what this allows you to do is kind of just like go on imagining that that's gonna happen, which provides you some sort of happiness over time. And this sort of anticipatory utility leads to what looks like putting nice things into the future too much.

因此我们似乎应该拥抱这种品味过程，拥抱预期效用，但或许只需在日历上标注：比如10月21日我要喝那瓶好酒。或者在一月份写下：这个月要用掉飞行里程积分。

And so it seems like we wanna embrace the savoring. We wanna embrace the anticipatory utility, but maybe just put in the calendar that, like, you know, October 21, I'm gonna drink the good wine. Or, you know, maybe, like, in January, write in your calendar, use the frequent flyer miles this month.

下次在纽黑文见到泰勒时，就是开那瓶酒的时候。

The next time Thales in New Haven, that's when you open that bottle.

到时候看看苏珊娜的番茄还有没有剩。

We'll see if we have some of Suzanne's tomatoes then.

我不

I don't

确定会不会有。好吧。

know if we will. Okay.

休息回来后，我们将探讨我最喜欢的最后两个反常现象：为什么达斯汀·霍夫曼会追着让·哈克曼讨要午餐钱，以及为什么人们在雪地气候里购买敞篷车。《幸福实验室》稍后继续。AutoTrader由汽车智能驱动，提供超个性化的购车方式。其工具会根据您的精确预算和偏好，为您量身定制购车体验。

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在当今超级竞争的商业环境中，优势属于那些更努力、行动更快并全面提升工具效能的人。T-Mobile深谙此道。根据Ookla网速测试专家评估，他们现拥有最佳网络，并借此推出Supermobile——首个也是唯一融合智能性能、内置安全与无缝卫星覆盖的商业套餐。Supermobile让您的业务性能、安全与覆盖全面升级。实时自适应网络确保企业在高需求时期仍保持巅峰运营状态。

In today's super competitive business environment, the edge goes to those who push harder, move faster, and level up every tool in their arsenal. T Mobile knows all about that. They're now the best network according to the experts at Ookla speed test, and they're using that network to launch Supermobile, the first and only business plan to combine intelligent performance, built in security, and seamless satellite coverage. With Supermobile, your performance, security, and coverage are supercharged. With a network that adapts in real time, your business stays operating at peak capacity even in times of high demand.

通过全美首个5G Advanced网络的内置安全功能，您与团队、客户的隐私数据将得到保护。借助全球最大卫星移动网络Constellation的无缝覆盖，即使离线状态团队成员也能保持通讯更新。这就是全面升级的商业体验。了解更多请访问supermobile.com。兼容设备在美国多数户外可见天空区域均可实现无缝覆盖。

With built in security on the first nationwide five g advanced network, you keep private data private for you, your team, your clients. And with seamless coverage from the world's largest satellite to mobile, Constellation, your whole team can text and stay updated even when they're off the grid. That's your business, supercharged. Learn more at supermobile.com. Seamless coverage with compatible devices in most outdoor areas in The US where you can see the sky.

最佳网络基于Ookla对Speedtest Intelligence数据2025年1月的分析结果。

Best network based on analysis by Ookla of Speedtest Intelligence Data one h twenty twenty five.

《幸福实验室》由Amica保险荣誉赞助。正如Amica所言：共情是我们的最佳准则。因此他们竭诚为您量身定制最契合需求的保险方案。无论您驾车出行、居家生活或人生旅途，其友善专业的代表都将确保您获得精准保障。Amica为您提供心安保障。

The Happiness Lab is proudly sponsored by Amica Insurance. As Amica says, empathy is our best policy. That's why they'll go above and beyond to tailor your insurance coverage to best fit your needs. Whether you're on the road, at home, or traveling along life's journey, their friendly and knowledgeable representatives will work with you to ensure you have the right coverage in place. Amica will provide you with peace of mind.

立即访问amica.com获取今日报价。非理性行为第五点将我们带入货币领域——金钱本可替代，但我们却区别对待。亚历克斯，这个'可替代性'概念是什么？

Go to amica.com and get a quote today. Irrationality number five gets us into monetary territory, and it's the idea that money is actually fungible, but we don't treat it like that. Alex, what's this idea of fungibility?

可替代性的概念是我们最初拥有货币而非以物易物的根本原因。简单来说，就是一美元就是一美元。无论我如何获得这一美元，它能买到的东西都一样。因此，不论获取途径如何，你都应该以同样的方式花掉它。

The idea of fungibility underlies the whole reason we have money in the first place, and we're not bartering anymore. It just basically means a dollar is a doll. It doesn't matter how I got the dollar. It'll buy you the same thing. So you should spend it the same way regardless of how you got it.

假设你工作获得了丰厚奖金。回家后你琢磨着怎么花这500美元。或者你在地上捡到一个装有500美元的信封。你同样会考虑如何花这笔钱。

So let's say you got a nice bonus at work. Come home. You think about how you wanna spend that $500. Or you found $500 envelope on the ground. You think about how you wanna spend it.

本质上你应该以相同方式消费。钱的来源并不重要——它的价值对你而言是等同的，你本应采取完全相同的消费方式。这种可替代性理念正是经济学最基础原理的根基。

You should basically spend it the same way. It doesn't really matter how you got it. The money is worth the same to you. You should spend it exactly the same way. And this idea of fungibility underlies the very, very basic principles of economics.

问题在于我们往往不这么做。事实上，我们几乎在每种行为中都违背了这个可替代性原则。理查德，你在书中用加油场景下的例子说明了我们如何违背这一原则——我之前没听说过这个案例，请分享下这个加油的例子。

Except the problem is that we tend not to do that. In fact, we violate this fungibility principle in pretty much every behavior we engage in. Richard, in the book, you use an example of the way we violate it when we're purchasing gas under certain situations. I hadn't heard about this. Well, share the gas example.

没错。本书方法论的核心主题之一，正如亚历克斯先前提到的，就是许多通过思想实验或实验室验证的理论，如今已用真实数据复现。这个案例就很典型：我们的朋友杰西·夏皮罗和贾斯汀·黑斯廷斯研究了金融危机期间汽油价格暴跌50%时的现象。当时失业率飙升，人们削减各项开支，但汽油却变得异常便宜。

Yeah. So one of the big themes in the book in terms of methodology, Alex referred to this earlier, is a lot of stuff that was demonstrated with thought experiments or lab experiments has now been replicated with actual data. And this is a good example of that. Our friends, Jesse Shapiro and Justine Hastings looked at what happened when the price of gasoline fell by 50% during the financial crisis, right? So this was really bad times, lots of unemployment, people are cutting back on everything, but gas has gotten cheap.

他们原本每周汽油支出80美元，现在只需40美元——预算中多出了40美元。人们怎么处理这笔意外之财？结果相当愚蠢：部分钱被用来升级汽油标号。

So they were spending $80 a week on gas and now it's $40 So there's $40 extra in their budget. And what do they do with that windfall? Well, spend some of it very stupidly on better grade gas.

就像我本来加87号廉价油，选择价格牌上最便宜的选项。但当油价下跌时，人们不会想着'这笔钱可以省下来多买杯咖啡'，反而会说'今天我要加92号高级油'。

So it'd be like I would buy the 87%, you know, the cheapo gas, the cheapest one on the board. But then when the price of gas falls, instead of saying like, oh, I can save that money and go get a extra coffee or something like that, I say, today, I'm gonna get the 92%. I'm gonna get the premium.

没错，正是如此。但这完全无济于事。车子不会因此感激你。去买瓶更好的橄榄油吧。

Right. Exactly. And that will do exactly no good. The car won't appreciate it. Go buy a better bottle of olive oil.

这就是我所说的心理账户的典型案例。

That's a good example of what I call mental accounting.

是啊，那么什么是心理账户？因为我觉得一旦你解释清楚，这个概念其实很直观。

Yeah, and so what's mental accounting? Because I think it's so intuitive once you explain it.

心理账户是我们追踪事物的一种方式。网上有个很棒的视频，达斯汀·霍夫曼和吉恩·哈克曼主演。他们正在讨论当年还是穷困演员时的往事。哈克曼讲了个故事，他称呼霍夫曼为达斯蒂，说去帕萨迪纳的达斯蒂公寓时，霍夫曼表示需要借钱。

Mental accounting is sort of the way we keep track of stuff. There's a great video you can find online, Dustin Hoffman and Gene Hackman. And they're having this discussion, it's about back when they were starving actors. And Hackman tells this story about going to, he calls him Dusty, going to Dusty's apartment in Pasadena. And Hoffman says he needs some money.

能否借他点钱？然后哈克曼走进厨房说：嘿，你根本不需要借钱。你厨房里这些罐子都装着钱啊，为什么要借钱？霍夫曼回答：是啊，但食品罐里可没钱。

Can he loan him some money? And then Hackman goes into the kitchen and he says, Hey, you don't need any money. There's these jars in your kitchen and they've got money in them. Why do you need money? And Hoffman says, Yeah, but there's no money in the food jar.

明白吗？这就是心理账户。需要说明的是，预算本身并不愚蠢。确保每月有足够钱付房租是明智的。实际上，建立类似这些罐子的机制可能很有帮助——但把省下的油费又花在加油上，这就很蠢了。

Right? So that is mental accounting. Now I should say budgeting per se is not stupid. And making sure that you have enough money to pay the rent each month, that's smart. And in fact, creating the equivalent of those jars can be helpful, but spending the gas windfall on gas, that's stupid.

但我们也可以利用这些认知偏差做有益的事。你之前提到过用工具促使人们多存钱的例子。这是另一个你巧妙运用人们心理账户的案例，比如利用涨薪机会让他们多存些钱。能详细说说那个项目吗？

But we can harness these biases also for good. You mentioned before the example of the tool you were using to get people to save more. And this is another spot where you were able to use people's mental accounts to do better a little bit too, using people's raises, for example, to get them to save a little bit more. Explain what you did in that program.

是的。我之前提到，我们首先要解决的难题是让人们注册。第二个问题是让他们存入更多资金。为此，我的另一位前学生什洛莫·贝纳茨和我设计了一个名为‘明日储蓄更多’的计划。这又回到了我们之前讨论的话题，因为‘明日’——

Yeah. So I mentioned before that the first problem we had to solve was getting people to sign up. Then the second problem was getting them to put more money in. And the trick there was another one of my former students, Shlomo Benartzi and I created a program we called Save More Tomorrow. And this goes back to what we were talking about before because tomorrow

明日遥不可及。不过我很高兴地说，劳瑞将来会是个很棒的储蓄者。

Tomorrow's far away. I'm happy to say, Laurie's gonna be a great saver tomorrow.

没错。我们会向人们提议：下次加薪时，你愿意增加储蓄比例吗？这结合了两个要点：首先是‘明日性’——比如‘等到一月份加薪时再存钱’，人们自然容易答应。

Right. So we would go to people and say, how about if you increase your saving contribution when you get your next raise? All right, so that's combining two of the things. So first of all, it's tomorrow, right? It's in January when I get the raise, so sure.

而且加薪后钱会变多，他们愿意将新增收入部分存起来。在我们首次实施该计划的公司，储蓄率提升了三倍。

And I'm gonna have more money. So I'll take some of that new money and I'll save that. And that program in the first company we tried it, we tripled saving rates.

哇。

Wow.

这个计划已在全球范围内创造了数百亿美元的储蓄。

That has created billions and billions of dollars in savings around the world.

这正符合我们讨论过的许多其他反常现象——心理账户在某些情境下显得愚蠢，比如仅仅因为有钱就把汽油预算花在更贵的汽油上。但你也可以利用心理账户做让自己更幸福的事，比如想着‘未来加薪的钱还没分配用途，可以存起来’。

And this kind of fits with the ideas we've been talking about for so many of these other anomalies, right, which is that mental accounting in some context looks sort of silly when you're just kind of spending your gas budget on higher priced gas just because you can. But you can also use mental accounting to do things that make you happier. Right? You can think of the account of, oh, I'm gonna get this future raise. That's not allocated for yet, so I can put that into savings.

我觉得每当所谓的‘支付痛苦’较高时，我总会这样做。比如，我想做某件事，但感觉有点奢侈。如果我得到一笔意外之财，比如收到一场未预期的演讲额外酬金，我就会把这笔钱用于那些平时让我觉得有点不好意思购买的东西，这样我就不会感到太糟糕。这是我经常用于心理账户的一种幸福小技巧。

I feel like I do this all the time when the the so called pain of paying is kinda high. Like, I wanna do something, but it feels sort of luxurious. If I take some random windfall I get, say I get an extra honorarium from a talk I wasn't expecting, I put that towards the stuff that normally I'd feel a little bit embarrassed about getting, and then that makes me feel not so bad. That's like a happiness hack that I use for mental accounting all the time.

我给你讲个关于我女儿的有趣故事。我女儿玛吉是由一位行为经济学家抚养长大的。她住在罗德岛，她的一个邻居后来成了为大都会队效力的美国职棒大联盟投手。我注意到大都会队有一场比赛将由这个孩子担任投手。

I'll tell you a funny story about my daughter. My daughter, Maggie, who has been raised by a behavioral economist. Right? She lives in Rhode Island and one of her neighbors grew into be a Major League Baseball pitcher playing for the Mets. And I noticed the Mets were gonna have a game in which this kid was gonna be pitching.

于是我打电话给玛吉说，嘿，你想去看那场比赛吗？我请你两张票。她说，好啊，太棒了。但比赛大约在一天半后就要开始，所以我们得赶快行动。

And so I called Maggie and said, hey, would you wanna go to that game? I'll treat you to two tickets. And she said, okay, great. So this game was like in another day and a half. So we had to act fast.

我在网上查找后发给她一个链接说，玛吉，你可以买到看起来相当不错的票，每张300美元。选你想要的，我会转给你一千美元，去玩得开心点。她回复我说，哈哈，这就像你书里写的场景。如果你给我一千美元，我不会用来去看棒球比赛的。

So I look online, I send her a link and say, look, Mag, you can get what looked like pretty nice tickets for $300 each. Buy the ones you want, I'll send you a thousand dollars and go have fun. And she texts me back and says, LOL, this is just like in your book. If you send me a thousand dollars, I'm not gonna use it on going to a baseball game.

好的。现在我们接着讨论最后一个我认为影响幸福的不理性行为，即我们并不总是知道自己未来会喜欢什么。亚历克斯，你在书中用了所谓的‘饥饿购物者’例子来说明。那是什么？

Alright. So now we get followed by a final irrationality that I think matters for happiness, which is the problem that we don't always know what we're going to like in the future. Alex, in the book, you use this so called the hungry shopper example. What's that?

我想大家可能都对这个现象有所体会。你不该在空腹时购物，因为那时所有东西看起来都特别诱人。你会往购物车里塞满各种看起来美味的食物。回家吃完晚餐后，你却纳闷：我为什么要买17种不同的薯片？这反映了你无法准确预想未来的状态和需求。

Well, I think everybody is kinda probably familiar with this one. You're you shouldn't shop on an empty stomach because everything feels like it's gonna be really good. And you fill your grocery cart with all of these delicious looking things. You go home, you eat dinner, and then you're like, why did I buy 17 different types of potato chips? And it's the idea that you can't really accurately imagine what you're gonna be like and what you're gonna want in the future.

所以如果我饿了，你会下意识认为我将一直保持饥饿状态，永远渴望这些食物。于是你往购物车里装满这些东西，突然吃饱后，家里却堆满了你其实并不想要的东西——尤其是那些你真正不该多吃的，比如薯片和其他不健康食品。这正是我们最初讨论的观点采择概念，只不过这里的对象不是他人而是未来的自己。

So if I'm hungry, you kinda think I'm always gonna be hungry. I'm always gonna want these things. You're gonna fill your grocery cart with those things, and then all of sudden you eat, and your house is filled with stuff you don't want, especially, you know, stuff you really don't want, like chips and other sorts of unhealthy things. It's this idea that we started with, perspective taking. Only it's not perspective taking with respect to other people.

这是关于你未来会变成什么样的视角转换。所以人们在这两方面都会遇到困难。

It's perspective taking with respect to what you're gonna be like in the future. So people struggle with both.

在某种程度上，当涉及到饥饿等问题时，我们在两方面都遇到困难是有道理的，对吧？很难想象你处于另一种状态。但我们看到这些影响的范围比杂货店里发生的事情更广泛。亚历克斯，告诉我一个人当天的天气对他们购车决策影响的例子。

In some ways, it makes sense that we struggle with both when it comes to, like, hunger. Right? It's hard to kinda imagine a different state that you're in. But we see these kinds of effects more broadly than, like, what's happening in the grocery store. Alex, tell me the example of the effect of a person's weather in the present day on their car purchases.

是的。这是我们的同事德文·波普和他的合著者研究的。他们基本上查看了数据。这再次进入了行为经济学的这种革命。我们最初是用大学生做实验，现在我们看到的大多数结果都是基于数据，数百万的汽车购买记录。

Yeah. So this is by our colleague, Devin Pope, and his coauthors. They basically looked at data. This is, again, going into this kind of revolution in behavioral economics. We started out with these experiments with college students, and now most of the results that we're seeing are with data, millions of car purchases.

他们利用这个数据库研究人们在何时购买什么样的汽车，发现当天气晴朗时，人们更有可能购买敞篷车。有趣的是，如果你在明尼苏达州，那就是6月7日那个唯一晴朗的日子。

They take this database of what sort of cars people are buying and when, and they find that when it's sunny, people are a lot more likely to buy a convertible. And the funny thing is is that, you know, if you're in Minnesota, you're on that one sunny day, June 7.

是的。你们都住在芝加哥。我们知道芝加哥那个唯一晴朗的日子。是的。

Yeah. You all lived in Chicago. We know the one sunny day in Chicago. Yeah.

人们买了这些敞篷车，开心地开走了。然后，你知道，一年中的其他时间开始了，他们就会想，哦，糟糕。这个想法是，当天气晴朗时，你会想象自己头发随风飘扬，在高速公路上行驶。而你很难想象，等等，明天可能会下雪。

And, you know, people are buying these convertibles, and they're, they're going out. They're happily driving off the lot. And then, you know, the rest of the year starts, and they're like, oh, crap. And the idea is that when it's sunny, you kind of imagine yourself wind flowing through your hair, driving down the highway, And it's really hard for you to imagine, wait. It's gonna snow tomorrow probably.

而且我得把车顶关上，它就会变成一辆风大又冷的车。同样地，你知道，在寒冷的日子里，人们不太可能购买敞篷车，因为他们无法想象一个阳光明媚的日子，他们真的会享受它。

And I'm gonna have to close it up, and it's just gonna be kind of a windy, cold car. And then similarly, you know, when it's a cold day, people are really not likely to buy convertibles because they can't imagine a sunny day where they're actually gonna enjoy it.

我的导师丹尼·卡尼曼提出了‘聚焦错觉’这个概念。它意味着，你此刻关注的事物会显得比实际更重要。

Danny Kahneman, my mentor, coined the phrase the focusing illusion. Like, is as important as the thing you're thinking about right now.

所以这是个严重问题，对吧？因为我们需要依靠预测来决定未来参与哪些能让我们快乐的事。而聚焦错觉似乎严重干扰了这个过程。

And so this is a big problem. Right? Because we need our predictions to make decisions about the kinds of things that we're gonna engage with in the future that are gonna make us happy. And it seems like this focusing illusion really messes us up. Right?

我们的注意力聚焦在哪里，就会开始过度关注那件事，而忽略其他所有因素。那么如何改进呢？亚历克斯，对于如何更准确地预判未来喜好，以及拓宽我们狭窄的注意力，你有什么建议吗？

Whatever our attention is focused on, we start thinking about that, and we ignore all the other stuff. So how can we do better? Alex, any advice for how we can kind of notice what we're gonna like in the future a little bit better and maybe open up our narrow attention?

是的。我自己在这方面做过研究。最简单的建议就是延长思考时间。通过设置我们所谓的‘等待期’，人们的判断会变得更准确。这种等待期并非我们的发明。

Yeah. So I have some work on this myself. I mean, the kind of easy advice is just to think about it for longer. People become a lot better calibrated just by giving them what we call a waiting period. And these waiting periods are actually not something we invented.

如你所知，等待期应用广泛。美国许多州将其纳入枪支法规——当人处于情绪激动状态时，无法想象冷静时的感受。愤怒时买枪就可能做出后悔的蠢事。

As you probably know, waiting periods are all over the place. Many states have them as part of kind of gun laws. The idea is that if I'm in a hot state, I can't imagine what it's gonna feel like when I'm in a cold state. If I'm in a hot state, I'm angry at somebody. I go out there and buy a gun and do something really stupid that I'm gonna regret.

因此政府用等待期来模拟这种情境：让我多考虑几天，可能就不需要它了。婚姻同样适用——有人在酒吧一见钟情就说‘你是我的真爱，我们结婚吧’。

So states impose a waiting period to kinda simulate, let me think about it for a little longer, and then maybe I won't need it. It's there for marriages too. Right? Somebody meets somebody at a bar and is like, you're the love of my life. Let's go.

这时候就需要喊停：等等，多考虑几天。我们通过严谨实验发现，这种简单的干预措施能让你更准确地模拟未来的感受。

And it's like, wait a second. Wait. Think about it for a little bit. And this same sort of very simple intervention, we found this in careful experimental tests, allows you to kinda simulate what you're gonna feel like in the future a lot more accurately.

看来在做重大人生决策时，有两条建议。对吧？一是让你的注意力稍作停留，去关注那些当前被忽略的事情。另一条建议则是，当你犹豫不决时，不妨给它一点时间。因为随着时间的推移，更多事情会逐渐显现。

So it seems like there are two pieces of advice there when you're making a big life decision. Right? One is give your attention a moment to catch up with all the stuff it's not currently paying attention to. And the other piece of advice is just like, when in doubt, give it a little time. Because over time, more stuff will reveal.

无论你此刻处于何种状态——饥饿、沐浴阳光、渴望敞篷车——你都可能回归到另一种状态，那或许更接近你未来感受的基准线。

And whatever state you're in now, if that's hungry, sitting out in the sunshine, thinking you want a convertible, you might revert to a different state, which might be more of a baseline for how you're gonna feel in the future.

你知道，这还有另一个延伸。当我与学生讨论职业选择时，发现人们常犯的错误是根据自己在学校喜欢学习的科目来决定职业。而我总是说，不，要考虑你能否想象余生每天都做这件事。这两者可能并不相同。去跟随某人实习两周吧。

You know, and there's one other extension of that. When I'm talking to students about career choices, the mistake I find people make all the time is they decide a career based on what they like to study in school. And I always say, no, think about what you can imagine doing every day for the rest of your life. And that may not be the same thing. Go shadow somebody for two weeks.

看看那是否令人兴奋。我认为有很多职业听起来不错，直到你思考每天都要从事它。

See if that seems like that's exciting. I think there are lots of careers that sound good until you think about doing it every day.

理查德，我很高兴你决定余生每天从事的是成为一名行为经济学家，因为多年来从你这里了解这些反常现象真是太有趣了。九十年代末读这本书很有趣，而2025年读到包含亚历克斯新见解的版本则更加有趣。所以大家都应该去看看《赢家的诅咒》。里面有许多我们没机会探讨的精彩反常现象。但理查德和亚历克斯，非常感谢你们参加节目。

Well, Richard, I'm so glad that what you decided to do every day for the rest of your life was to be a behavioral economist because it's been so fun to learn about these anomalies from you through the years. It was fun to read this book back in the late nineties, and it was even more fun to read it new in 2025 when we have all of Alex's new insights there. So everyone should go out and check out The Winner's Curse. There's so many cool anomalies that we didn't get any chance to go into. But Richard and Alex, thanks so much for being on the show.

谢谢。谢谢你，劳里。很高兴见到你。

Thank you. Thanks, Laurie. Great to see you.

看来人类并非瓦肯人，我们并不总是理性行事。但这六个反常现象表明，理解我们物种的非理性怪癖，可以帮助我们以纯粹逻辑可能无法预测的方式，过上更丰富、更幸福的生活。新版《赢家的诅咒》将于十月上市，现已开放预订。下期《幸福实验室》，我们将探讨2025年我最爱的另一本书，同样出自受过经济学训练的学者之手，像理查德·塞勒一样，他也想打破规则。

So it seems humans are not Vulcans. We don't always act rationally. But as these six anomalies show, understanding the irrational quirks of our species can help us live richer, happier lives in ways that I think pure logic may not have predicted. The new and improved version of the winner's curse is out in October, and it's available for preorder now. Next time on happiness lab, we'll hear about another of my favorite books of 2025, one that's also from a scholar trained in economics and who, like Richard Thaler, also wants to break the rules.

但她打破常规的方式，是教导我们为何都应减少些工作量。这些内容将在下期《幸福实验室》节目中，由我劳里·桑托斯博士为您呈现。期待某事本身就能提升情绪。而有什么比期待一场罗德岛之旅更美好的呢？在这个海洋之州，您将找到适合各种口味的美食、惊艳的购物体验、令人叹为观止的自然风光，以及经济实惠的住宿选择。

But her rule breaking involves teaching us why we should all be working a bit less. All that next time on The Happiness Lab with me, doctor Laurie Santos. Having something to look forward to is a proven mood booster. And what better thing to look forward to than a vacation to Rhode Island? In the Ocean State, you'll find a cuisine for every taste, amazing shopping, breathtaking natural scenery, and accommodations that won't break the bank.

犒赏自己一点幸福感，从今天开始期待一场难忘的旅行吧。罗德岛，应有尽有。立即登录visitrhodeisland.com规划您的旅程。网址是visitrhodeisland.com。

Treat yourself to a little bit of happiness and start looking forward to an unforgettable trip today. Rhode Island, all that. Plan your getaway at visitrhodeisland.com. That's visitrhodeisland.com.

生活难免杂乱。我们谈论的是泼洒、污渍、宠物和孩子。但有了Anabay，您再也不用为 messy 烦恼。在washablesofas.com上探索Anabay沙发——唯一内外均可机洗的沙发，起价仅699美元。采用防液体防污渍面料制成。

Life's messy. We're talking spills, stains, pets, and kids. But with Anabay, you never have to stress about messes again. At washablesofas.com, discover Anabay sofas, the only fully machine washable sofas inside and out, starting at just $699. Made with liquid and stain resistant fabrics.

这意味着更少污渍，更多安心。为真实生活而设计，我们的沙发配备可更换布套，让您随时焕新风格。需要灵活性？模块化设计让您轻松重组沙发，无论是温馨公寓还是宽敞住宅都完美适配。此外，它们环保耐用。

That means fewer stains and more peace of mind. Designed for real life, our sofas feature changeable fabric covers, allowing you to refresh your style anytime. Need flexibility? Our modular design lets you rearrange your sofa effortlessly, perfect for cozy apartments or spacious homes. Plus, they're earth friendly and built to last.

这就是为什么已有超过20万满意顾客选择我们。立即升级您的家居空间。访问washablesofas.com，带回家一款为生活而造的沙发。网址是washablesofas.com。优惠可能随时变更，部分限制条款适用。

That's why over 200,000 happy customers have made the switch. Upgrade your space today. Visit washablesofas.com now and bring home a sofa made for life. That's washablesofas.com. Offers are subject to change, and certain restrictions may apply.

嘿，最近怎么样？我是马里奥·洛佩兹。返校季令人兴奋，但也可能让人不知所措，孩子们可能会感到孤立——这种脆弱性可能被人口贩子利用。人口贩卖并不总是以你想象的方式呈现。

Hey. What's up? It's Mario Lopez. Back to school is an exciting time, but it can also be overwhelming, and kids may feel isolated, a vulnerability that human traffickers can exploit. Human trafficking doesn't always look like what you expect.

日常瞬间可能成为别有用心者的可乘之机。无论您是家长、教师、教练还是邻居，请保持关注、提出问题、维系联系。蓝色行动是一项全国性宣传活动，提供识别疑似人口贩卖案例的各类资源。

Everyday moments can become opportunities for someone with bad intentions. Whether you're a parent, teacher, coach, or neighbor, check-in. Ask questions. Stay connected. Blue Campaign is a national awareness initiative that provides resources to help recognize suspected instances of human trafficking.

了解相关迹象及举报方式，请访问dhs.gov/bluecampaign。

Learn the signs and how to report at dhs.gov/bluecampaign.

这是一档iHeart播客节目。

This is an iHeart podcast.