中国和印度现在是好朋友了吗？

美国国家公共电台。

NPR.

2020年6月。

June 2020.

数十名身穿冬装的印度士兵手持枪支、长杆和防暴盾牌，涉过一条浑浊的河流。

Dozens of Indian soldiers in winter jackets wade through a murky river holding guns, poles, and riot shields.

他们位于喜马拉雅山脉的古尔万山谷，处于印度和中国有争议的边界地区。

They're in the depths of the Gulwan Valley in the Himalayas on a disputed border between India and China.

一旦士兵们抵达河对岸，便与中国军队发生了推搡和冲突。

Once the soldiers reach the other side of the river, there's some pushing and shoving with members of the Chinese army.

没有

Not

开一枪。

a single shot is fired.

双方长期达成协议，禁止在边境开火，但至少有20名印度士兵丧生。

There's a long standing agreement not to shoot along the border, but at least 20 Indian soldiers are killed.

一名印度高级军事官员告诉BBC，中国士兵使用钉满钉子的铁棍殴打印度士兵。

A senior Indian military official told the BBC that Chinese soldiers used iron rods studded with nails to beat Indian soldiers.

而北京方面称，当天有四名中国士兵死亡。

And Beijing said that four from its side were killed that day.

大约在这个时候，印中边境的其他冲突再次爆发。

Around this time, other skirmishes at the India China border flare up.

作为回应，印度政府封禁了包括抖音在内的多个中国应用程序。

In response, the Indian government banned several Chinese apps, including TikTok.

中国封锁了印度的新闻网站。

China blocked Indian news websites.

中国对印度的进口商品进行了严格审查。

Chinese imports into India were heavily scrutinized.

两国之间的航班

Flights between the

持续停飞了数年。

two countries stayed suspended for years.

尽管如此，今年夏天，印度总理莫迪在中国参加活动时，被拍到正笑着与中国国家主席习近平交谈。

And despite all this, this summer, India's prime minister Narendra Modi was snapped grinning at an event in China chatting with Chinese president Xi Jinping.

就在特朗普政府与这两个国家进行强硬的贸易谈判之际，发生了这一幕。

This is right as the Trump administration plays hardball in trade talks with both countries.

因此，这引发了一个重大问题：美国的高额关税是否正在将印度和中国推到一起？

So this raises one big question, which is, are The US's steep tariffs pushing India and China together?

这是《星球金钱》的报道。

This is the indicator from Planet Money.

我是阿德里安·马。

I'm Adrian Ma.

我是达里安·伍兹。

And I'm Darian Woods.

今天在节目中，我们探讨印度和中国能否成为朋友？

Today on the show, can India and China be friends?

我们将分析，如果世界上两个最大的国家开始更多合作，可能会发生什么。

We look at what could happen if two of the world's largest countries started collaborating more.

中国是世界第二大经济体。

China is the world's second largest economy.

它是世界工厂，几乎生产了全球所有精炼的稀土矿物。

It's the factory of the world, and it makes not all, but basically all of the world's refined rare earth minerals.

最近，北京通过限制这些矿物的出口，让全世界充分意识到这一点。

Beijing made the world very aware of that recently when it put restrictions on their export.

印度拥有世界最多的人口，并在过去几十年中经济快速增长。

And India has the world's biggest population and a rapidly growing economy over the last few decades.

它是一个民主国家，如果效仿中国的工业化道路，将拥有巨大的经济潜力。

It's a democracy that has a lot of economic potential if it were to follow in China's industrialization footsteps.

目前，美国正试图让这两个国家屈从于其意志。

And right now, The US is trying to bend both of these countries to its will.

因此，如果我们从《幸存者》中学到了什么，那就是联盟至关重要，而中国与印度的关系对美国来说至关重要。

And so if we have learned anything from Survivor, it's that alliances matter, and the relationship between China and India is of intense interest to The US.

于是，我们采访了一位中国专家和一位印度专家。

So we caught up a China expert and an India expert.

他们现在都有很多事情要处理。

Both have a lot on right now.

非常抱歉。

I'm so sorry.

真的很抱歉。

So sorry.

我有点耽搁了。

I got I got a little delayed.

抱歉，达里安。

Sorry about that, Darian.

我刚结束一个电话。

I was just finishing a call.

嗯。

Yeah.

有很多人想知道这两个国家正在发生什么。

There's no lack of people wanting to know what is happening with these two countries.

尹善是智囊团斯廷森中心中国项目的主任，米兰·韦什涅夫是卡内基国际和平基金会南亚项目的主任。

Yoon Soon is director of the China program at a think tank called the Stimpson Center, and Milan Vaishnev is director of the South Asia program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

我们问米兰，如果中国和印度成为盟友，会发生什么？

We asked Milan, what would happen if China and India were to become allies?

你得从人口开始说起。

You have to start out with with population.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，我们谈论的是约占全球三分之一的人口，如果他们能够放下过往、携手合作，这将是一个极其强大的经济集团。

I mean, this is essentially one third of humanity that we're talking about, that if they were able to let bygones be bygones and work together, I mean, this is just an extremely powerful economic bloc.

这可能意味着在制定国际规则方面拥有更大的话语权，或者意味着在军事上结盟。

That could mean having more of a say in how international rules are set, or it could mean joining forces militarily.

我们的中国问题专家孙云表示，更多的合作可能对两国经济都有帮助。

And our China expert, Yun Sun, says that more collaboration could help both countries economically.

中国正在老龄化，孙云表示，随着中国逐步摆脱劳动密集型制造业，中国企业可以投资在印度建立新工厂，分享技术知识，帮助印度建立起繁荣的制造业。

China is aging, and Yun says as China moves away from labor intensive manufacturing, Chinese businesses could invest in new factories in India, share know how and build up a thriving manufacturing sector there.

中国可以将印度作为转移部分不再具有竞争力的产业或供应链环节的目的地。

China could treat India as the destination for China to shift out some of its previous industries or components of the supply chain that is no longer competitive.

最近几个月，似乎确实出现了一些关系缓和的迹象。

And in recent months, there does seem to be some signs of warmer relations.

不仅仅是习近平和莫迪面带微笑的合影，还有实质性的变化，比如两国之间的航班在五年后首次恢复。

Not just the cheery photos of Xi Jinping and Narayanja Modi, but real changes, like flights have resumed between the two countries for the first time in five years.

我们的印度专家米兰·沃什涅夫表示，这背后有三个主要原因。

Our India expert, Milan Vaishnev, says there's three main reasons for this.

首先是美国贸易政策的压力。

First up, American trade policy pressure.

印度已被征收50%的关税。

India has been slapped with a 50% tariff.

即对出口产品征收25%的关税，另外再加征25%的关税，理由是印度仍是俄罗斯石油的主要进口国。

So a 25% tariff on exports and an additional 25% ostensibly because India remains a prime importer of Russian oil.

因此，在50%的关税下，印度相对于许多其他竞争对手处于巨大的战略劣势。

And so at 50%, they are at a huge strategic disadvantage relative to many of their other competitors.

对吧？

Right?

所以我认为，中国当然也正与美国陷入一场严重的贸易对抗。

So I think China, of course, is also in a in a pretty serious trade stand up with The United States.

因此，这两个国家现在都在寻找对冲的方法。

So both of these countries now are looking for ways of hedging.

第二，印度经济最近有所降温。

Second, India's economy has cooled recently.

所以米兰认为，莫迪政府的考量是，中国是印度最大的贸易伙伴。

So Milan thinks that the Modi government's rationale here is that, look, China is India's biggest trading partner.

所以让我们开展业务，努力走出低迷。

So let's do business and try to get out of the slump.

第三个因素，中印关系的缓和，与节目开头提到的冲突有关。

And the third factor, easing China and Indians relations, relates to that conflict at the start of the show.

这也是米兰认为最重要的原因。

And it's the reason Milan thinks is actually the most important.

最近几个月，这条被称为实际控制线的争议边境局势明显缓和，因为双方都在多个摩擦点悄悄撤回了部队，并努力缓解紧张局势。

There has been a noticeable easing of tensions in recent months on this disputed border, what we call the line of actual control, because both sides have quietly pulled troops back from the brink at several friction points, and there's been a kind of renewed effort to try and diffuse tension.

所以我认为，这确实是政策制定者一直在等待的绿灯，让他们可以说：好吧。

So I think that really was the green light that policymakers were looking for to say, okay.

让我们开始讨论其他事情吧。

Let's start to talk about other things.

专家表示，这场边境争端一直是中印之间的症结所在。

Expert, says this border dispute has always been the sticking point between China and India.

印度于1947年独立。

Indian become independent in 1947.

中国于1949年独立。

China became independent in 1949.

从一开始，这两个国家就有一大片领土存在争议。

These two countries from day one has had a significant portion of their territory in dispute between them.

争议最激烈的两个地区位于西部，也就是加勒万河谷冲突发生的地方。

The two major sections where there's the most controversy is in the West, where the clash in the Galwan Valley happened.

而在东部，位于印度一个邦的顶端，有一个名为达旺的地区，目前由印度控制。

And also in the East at the top of an Indian state where there's a region called Tawang, which is controlled by India.

关于达旺的一个关键事实是，十七世纪第六世达赖喇嘛就出生在这里，云孙表示，这是北京一直未承认印度对达旺拥有合法主张的重要原因。

And a key fact about Taewang is that it's where the sixth Dalai Lama was born in the seventeenth century, which Yun Sun says is one big reason why Beijing hasn't said that India has a legitimate claim to Taewang.

所以我认为，对中国来说，如果放弃达旺，就会引发一个问题：如果达赖喇嘛历史上出生在实际上属于印度的领土上，那么中国对西藏的主权主张是否还合法？

So I think for China, if they give up Tawang, it will become a question as for whether China's claim of Tibet is legitimate if Dalai Lama historically was born in what is actually Indian territory.

对吧？

Right?

这些争端曾激烈到使中国和印度在1962年爆发了一场持续一个月的战争，造成数千人伤亡。

And these disputes became so hot that China and India even went to war for a month in 1962 with thousands of casualties.

自那以后，我认为中印关系从未真正处于合作或友好的状态。

Basically, since then, I would say the China India relationship had never really been on a on a collaborative or a friendly footing.

不过，自二十世纪七十年代中期以来，两国之间一直未发生过战斗死亡，直到2020年6月那个混乱的日子。

That said, after the mid nineteen seventies, there had not been any combat deaths between the two countries until that chaotic day in June 2020.

米兰·韦什纳瓦表示，这一事件使印度对中国的看法降至半个多世纪以来的最低点。

Milan Vaishnav says this incident put Indian opinions of China to its lowest point in more than a half century.

我们有一种强烈的感觉，即我们有一个比我们更大、更强的邻居，它本质上像一个霸凌者，试图迫使我们屈服。

There was just this real sense that we have a neighbor that is bigger and stronger than us and essentially acting like a bully to try to get us to submit.

这个时候，我们不能再说了，好吧。

And this is the time when we can't say, okay.

我们有战略分歧，但让我们一起做生意吧。

We have a strategic dispute, but let's do business together.

不行。

No.

事实上，我们必须把经济和战略问题视为同一枚硬币的两面。

In fact, we have to treat both the economic and strategic as two sides of the same coin.

因此，出现了旅行暂停以及中国对印度投资的降温。

Hence, the travel suspension and the chill of Chinese investment into India.

那么总体来看，中国和印度能成为朋友吗？

So overall assessment, can China and India be friends?

我不这么认为。

I I don't think so.

我认为我们现在看到的是一种临时的利益结合。

I think what we're seeing right now is a kind of temporary marriage of convenience.

我认为双方都在应对全球压力的变化以及彼此双边关系的转变。

I think both are responding to shifting global pressures, a change in their own bilateral relations.

但我认为他们还远未达到首次发现某种相互友好的地步。

But I don't think they're on the precipice of somehow discovering for the first time some kind of mutual bonhomie.

尹顺同意这一观点。

Yoon Soon agrees.

毕竟，两国之间曾多次出现过类似的关系缓和时期。

There have been other similar times of warming relations between the two states after all.

我会说，我们以前也经历过这种情况，但上一轮并未持续太久。

I would say that that we've been here before, but during the last round, it did not last very long.

换句话说，冰层正在融化，但冬天可能会再次来临。

In other words, the ice is thawing, but winter might come again.

本集由库珀·卡茨曼·金制作，音效由高泽久和切尔纳万负责。

This episode was produced by Cooper Katzman Kim with engineering by Kou Takasugi Chernavan.

本节目由西耶拉·华雷斯进行事实核查。

It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez.

卡肯·卡农负责节目编辑以及 NPR 的制作指标。

Kaken Kannon edits the show and the indicators of production of NPR.