关税。消费者情绪。CAPE比率。选出年度最佳指标！

NPR。

NPR.

这是《星球金钱》的指标。

This is the indicator from Planet Money.

我是达里安·伍兹。

I'm Darian Woods.

年底到了。

It's the end of the year.

我们已经表达了感谢，袜子已经装满，我们正与亲人共度有意义的时光。

We've given thanks, stockings have been stuffed, and we're spending meaningful time with loved ones.

事实上，今天我和《星球金钱》的同事们坐在一起，像家庭在节日期间最擅长的那样，以一种极其公开的方式展开激烈而伤人的争吵。

In fact, today, I sit down with my Planet Money family and do what families do best around the holiday season, engage in brutal soul breaking arguments in a fashion most public.

没错。

That's right.

该进行另一场家庭纷争了。

It's time for another family feud.

今天，我将与我的Planet Money同事肯尼·马隆展开正面较量。

Today, I'm competing head to head with my Planet Money colleagues, Kenny Malone.

来吧，你这个笨蛋。

Bring it, you egg.

这是新西兰人这么说的吗？

Is that what they say in New Zealand?

差不多是这样吗？

Something like that?

没错。

That's right.

还有格雷格·格罗泽尔斯基。

And Greg Grozelski.

我们不能和平相处吗？

Can't we all just get along?

不行。

No.

接下来的九分钟内不会。

Not for the next nine minutes.

如果你还不了解情况，以下是规则。

And in case you aren't up to speed, here are the rules.

我们每个人都要为自己的年度指标做一段陈述。

Each of us has a spiel for our indicator of the year.

我们每人最多有六十秒来陈述理由，否则。

We will each have sixty seconds or less to make our case or else.

最后，亲爱的听众，你们将投票选出2025年的年度指标。

And in the end, you, dear listener, will vote on who had the indicator of 2025.

接下来在节目中，我们有

Coming up on the show, we have

肯尼·马隆，正确地解释了为什么消费者情绪连续第三年显然是年度指标。

Kenny Malone, rightfully explaining why consumer sentiment for the third straight year is obviously the indicator of the year.

我是格雷格·格罗佐尔斯基。

And I'm Greg Grozolski.

我支持的观点是，关税才是2025年的关键事件。

I'm championing the idea that tariffs were the story of 2025.

接下来是我，达里·伍兹，将揭示股市中令人恐惧的迹象。

And we'll have me, Darri Woods, seeing terrifying signs in the stock market.

广告结束后继续。

That's after the break.

好了。

Alright.

家庭问答游戏。

Family Feud.

肯尼·马隆，你第一个上。

Kenny Malone, you are up first.

好的。

Alright.

我这儿有我的发言稿。

Got my script here.

好的。

Okay.

蒂伯现在开始。

Tiber starts now.

是经济，笨蛋。

It's the economy stupid.

这是解释人们为何如此投票的著名说法。

That's the famous formula for why people vote the way they do.

我在这里要说不。

I am here to say no.

这是人们对经济的感受。

It's what people feel about the economy.

等等。

Wait.

你知道吗？

You know what?

我无意中在读两年前的脚本，那时候我也做过消费者情绪调查，那年是个关键指标，因为你们可能还记得，当时我们都吓坏了，因为我们正处在

I'm accidentally reading off of my script from two years ago when I also did consumer sentiment, and it won indicator of the year because you may remember back then, we're all freaking out because we're

瘫了，肯尼。

laid out, Kenny.

我们真的、真的害怕。

Were so, so scared.

好吧。

Okay.

总之，这才是正确的

Anyway, this is the right

这是同一份脚本吗？

Is this the same script?

就在这里。

Right here.

在疫情前，密歇根大学的消费者情绪指数徘徊在100左右，意味着人们对经济感觉还不错。

Now in prepandemic times, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was hovering around a 100, meaning people felt okay about the economy.

但过去一年，它一直徘徊在70左右，不对。

But for the past year, it's been down around the 70 nope.

你知道吗？

You know what?

这是阿德里安·马去年的脚本，当时他也因消费者情绪获奖了。

This is Adrian Ma's script from last year when he also won for consumer sentiment.

已经降到五十了。

It's fifties.

今年一直都在五十左右。

It's been in the fifties this year.

历史低位。

Historic lows.

就在这里，就是它。

Here here it is.

这才是正确的脚本。

Here's the right script.

2025年是我们开始全面陷入对经济的负面情绪的一年。

2025 was the year we began to full on drown in bad feelings about the economy.

我们对物价、通货膨胀、就业和住房的未来感到恶心透顶。

We're sick to our economic stomachs about the future of prices and inflation and jobs and housing.

消费者情绪是煤矿中的金丝雀，过去三年里，它的预警声越来越响。

Consumer sentiment is the canary in the coal mine, and it's been chirping louder and louder over the last three years.

或者说，金丝雀在煤矿里的反应其实是叫声越来越小。

Or I guess chirping less and less is how canaries work in the coal mine.

总之，以下是消费者情绪的数据供你参考。

Anyway, consumer sentiment for your consideration.

你刚才那番嗡嗡作响的论述或许有道理，但你花了不少时间才说到重点。

You might have made a good argument behind all that buzzing, but, it took you a while to get there.

是的。

Yeah.

我知道。

I know.

刮起了一阵大风

There was a big wind

起来。

up.

好吧，我老是被同事打断，所以我想不如干脆直接讲完。

Well, I kept getting interrupted by my colleagues, so I figured I went I I figured I might just go through.

在看到那一连串陈词滥调之后，我觉得我自己的消费情绪相当冷淡。

Feel like my individual consumer sentiment was tepid after after that display of played out material.

有些不错的误导性说法。

Some good head fakes.

接连不断。

In a row.

我只是说，考虑一下消费情绪吧。

I'm just saying, consider consumer sentiment.

我超爱这些误导性说法。

I love the head fakes.

现在我们来听格雷格的。

Now let's go to Greg.

这位创造者是

What is the creator of

今年？

the year?

所以，我今年的经济故事围绕着英语中最美的一个词展开，至少根据总统唐纳德·特朗普的说法，那就是关税。

So my economic story of the year, it centers on the most beautiful word in the English language that is at least according to president Donald Trump, tariffs.

你们准备好了吗？

You guys ready?

等等。

Wait.

这是你论点的一部分吗？

Is this part of your argument?

这不公平。

This isn't fair.

你有额外的时间。

You got extra time.

不。

No.

不。

No.

这不是额外的时间。

This is not extra time.

这是准备阶段。

I'm this is the wind up.

这就像你

This is like you

知道吗？

know?

好吧。

Okay.

这是把球放在球座上。

This is putting the ball on the tee.

我不符合条件。

I don't qualify.

现在是时间吗？

Is that the time?

我不知道。

I don't know.

好吧。

Alright.

去吧。

Go.

好的。

Okay.

所以今年的关税故事非常重大。

So the tariff story was huge this year.

还记得解放日吗？特朗普对全球各国征收了极高的关税，甚至包括一个主要居民是企鹅的地区？

Remember Liberation Day and Trump imposing, like, super high tariffs on countries around the world, including, like, a territory whose population was largely penguins?

你们还记得这件事吗？

You guys remember that?

然后，股市彻底崩盘，接着特朗普暂停了关税，随后就是一波又一波的谈判、来回拉扯、起伏不定和各种戏剧性场面。

Then, like, the stock market freaked out, and then, like, president Trump paused tariffs, and there were, like, negotiations and the back and forth and the up and down and the drama.

好市多刚刚就此事对特朗普政府提起了诉讼。

Costco just filed a freaking lawsuit against the Trump administration over them.

这个经济故事简直源源不断。

This is the economic story that keeps on giving.

而这个故事，具有历史意义。

And this story, it's historic.

我们谈的可是经济模式的根本性转变。

We're talking like a paradigm shift for the economy.

2024年，美国消费者面临的平均实际关税率为2.5%。

In 2024, the average effective tariff rate that US consumers faced was 2.5%.

这个数字现在是16.8%。

That number is now 16.8%.

这是自1935年以来最高的关税水平。

That's the highest tariffs have been since 1935.

这个故事还没结束。

And this story, it's not over.

关于这些关税将对经济产生什么影响，以及特朗普在未经国会批准的情况下征收关税是否合宪，仍存在重大疑问，最高法院预计很快就会对此作出裁决。

There are still big questions over what these tariffs are going to do to the economy and whether Trump imposing tariffs without congressional approval was even constitutional, the Supreme Court is expected to rule in this issue soon.

这简直是个年末悬疑大结局。

Talk about a year end cliffhanger.

你说得对。

You're right.

我们来说吧。

Let's say it.

白人选民。

Than white voters.

这真是个精彩的结尾。

That's a good kicker.

现在我一直在想Costco的诉讼案，你觉得他们会把这份诉状装进一个以前装超大瓶橄榄油的盒子，然后就这样寄出去吗？

Now one thing I have been thinking about the Costco lawsuit is do you think that they take the lawsuit and package it into, like, a box that was, like, previously used for oversized olive oil containers, and that's how they deliver it?

我不关心他们怎么寄，只要热狗还是1.5美元就行。

I don't care how they deliver it as long as hot dogs are still a dollar 50.

好的。

Okay.

达里昂，我们今年指标的最后一位竞争者。

Darion, our final contender for indicator of the year.

达里昂在穿外套？

Darion's putting on a coat?

一件斗篷。

A cape.

什么？

What?

什么是斗篷？

What is A cape?

达里昂打扮成德古拉伯爵？

Darion's dressed as Dracula?

这是什么？

What is this?

你是个伯爵吗？

Are you a count?

是的。

Yes.

我是德古拉伯爵。

I am count Dracula.

我穿着斗篷。

I've got my cape on.

它让我的肩膀暖和。

It's keeping my shoulders warm.

这和我的指示器有关。

And this relates to my indicator.

好的。

Okay.

再次提醒，大家都有点提前进入倒计时了，所以我希望在明信片时间上能多给我点宽容。

Again, everyone's getting a little pre clock time, so I want a little generosity on my postcard time.

说了什么。

Said anything.

嗯，没有白忙活。

Well, did no wind ups.

我在说我的服装。

I'm talking about my outfit.

好吧。

Alright.

我们开始吧。

Here we go.

好吧。

Alright.

我们开始吧。

Here we go.

三、二、一。

In three, two, one.

我今年的指标是市盈率（CAPE比率）。

My indicator of the year is the cape ratio.

这是周期性调整后的市盈率。

This is the cyclically this is the cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio.

它衡量股价相对于企业实际盈利水平的高低。

It measures how expensive share prices are relative to how much money they actually earn.

CAPE比率越高，股票就越昂贵。

The higher the cape ratio, the more expensive stocks are.

这个指标目前达到了历史最高水平，仅次于互联网泡沫破裂前。

And this indicator is the highest it's ever been, apart from just before the .com crash.

这比任何恐怖故事都令人恐惧。

And that is as frightening as any horror story.

因为当股票如此昂贵时，它们往往会在长期内表现不佳。

Because when stocks are this expensive, they tend to underperform over time.

这个指标与2025年的许多经济故事息息相关。

And this indicator touches so many economic stories of 2025.

人工智能热潮、对泡沫的担忧，以及数据中心建设对制造业等行业的投资造成的吸血效应。

The AI boom, the fears of a bubble, its data center construction sucking the blood out of investment in industries like manufacturing.

还有K型经济，富人往往持有大量股票，正变得越来越富有，而穷人则举步维艰。

Also, the k shaped economy where the rich, who tend to own a lot of stocks, are getting richer and the poor are struggling.

作为捕捉一个令人毛骨悚然年份的指标，CAPE比率无人能及。

For an indicator that captures a blood curdling year, the CAPE ratio has no peer.

我特别喜欢这一点，当你听到‘cape’时，脑海里立刻浮现出德古拉。

I just love that, like, your mind goes to Dracula when you go to cape.

为什么不是超人、蝙蝠侠呢？

Why not, like, Superman, Batman?

是的，确实如此。

Like It's true.

这个‘cape’是在吸干经济的某种东西吗？

Is the cape draining the economy of something?

这是它的含义吗？

Is that is that the implication?

乐观者会看到超人，这些人工智能科技公司正在拯救世界。

The optimist would see Superman, these AI tech companies saving the world.

悲观者可能会看到德古拉在吸走其余部分的血。

The pessimist might see Dracula sucking the blood out of the rest

经济的血。

of the economy.

我会说，我明白市盈率如何体现富人越来越富，但你也提到它显示低收入人群处境艰难。

I I will say I will say I do understand how cape ratio shows the rich getting richer, but you also you also mentioned that it shows low low income people doing poorly.

这是怎么运作的？

How does that work?

我承认这有点牵强。

This is a bit of a stretch, I admit.

但归根结底，普通民众才是那些必须购买商品，让公司获得收益的人。

But, ultimately, everyday people are the ones who have to buy things so that companies can get earnings.

而目前，收益增长速度还不够快，无法让股价看起来便宜。

And at the moment, earnings are not growing fast enough to keep stocks looking cheap.

所以我们并没有大量购买ChatGPT订阅服务之类的东西，是吗？

So we're not, like, buying enough chat GBT subscriptions or something.

没错。

Exactly.

别让萨姆·阿尔特曼哭了。

Don't make Sam Altman cry.

我需要买多少个？

How many do I need to buy?

是的。

Yes.

你打算通过多次订阅来支撑人工智能经济。

You're gonna prop up the AI economy with multiple, subscriptions.

达里昂，你披上那件斗篷，总得给我们来点德古拉吧。

Darion, I you can't put on that cape and not give us a little not give us a little Dracula.

你能给我们来点吗？

Can you give us a little Yeah.

那印象在哪？

Do what's where's the impression?

一点印象？

A little impression?

你可以演《尸骨无存》里的那个新西兰德古拉电影。

You can do What We Do in the Shadows, the Kiwi the Kiwi Dracula movie.

嗯。

Yeah.

不行。

No.

那是一部很棒的电影。

That's that's a that's a great that's a great movie.

好吧。

Alright.

你一定能搞定这个。

You're gonna nail this.

来吧。

Come on.

我判断今年的标准是披风比例。

My indicator of the year is the cape ratio.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

我正在为今年的标准做推介。

I'm making my pitch for the indicator of the year.

挺不错的。

It's pretty good.

《披风秀》。

The Capre Show.

好的。

Okay.

你知道吗？

You know what?

说实话，你可能已经赢得我的投票了。

You may have just won my vote, honestly.

这真是太棒了。

That's really fantastic.

好吧。

Alright.

所以听好了。

So listen.

听众们，这是你们的三个选择。

Those are your three options, listeners.

我们有消费者情绪。

We have consumer sentiment.

我们有关税，还有，再重复一遍，达里安。

We have tariffs, and we have say it again, Darian.

蛋糕是新鲜的，伙计。

The cake fresh, yo.

嗯。

Yeah.

太棒了。

So good.

你们可以将投票发送至 indicator@npr.org，或在我们的《Planet Money》Instagram 留言。

You could email your votes to indicator@npr.org or leave us a comment on our planet money Instagram.

我的意思是，达里安，我觉得你应该拿这份功劳。

I mean, Darian, you just I feel like you should take the credits.

嗯？

Yeah?

本集由安吉尔·费德里斯制作，音频工程由李浩西负责。

This episode was produced by Angel Federis with engineering by Khoisi Lee.

内容核实由首席执行官费德里斯完成，编辑由朱利奥·里奇负责。

It was fact checked by CEO Federis with editing by Giulio Ricci.

凯坎·坎农是节目的编辑，本节目由NPR制作。

Kecan Cannon is a show's editor, and the indicator is a production of NPR.