Eventbrite首席执行官Julia Hartz谈现场活动、物流与医疗领域的人工智能及AI热潮 | 2025年9月11日

欢迎大家收看The Information的TITV节目。我是Akash Vasricha。今天是星期四，在今天的节目中，我们为大家准备了丰富的嘉宾阵容。Eventbrite的首席执行官Julia Hartz将来到节目现场，她将与我们的总编辑Jessica Lesson进行对话。

Welcome everyone to the Information's TITV. My name is Akash Vasricha. It is Thursday, and today on the show, we have got a busy lineup for you. Julia Hartz, the CEO of Eventbrite, is coming on the show. She is going to be speaking with our editor in chief, Jessica Lesson.

我们还将邀请Hinge Health的首席执行官。当然，这家健康科技公司今年早些时候已经上市，目前正大举进军可穿戴设备领域，我对这场对话充满期待。随后我们将请来Augment的首席执行官，他也是之前以25亿美元将自己的企业出售给Shopify的企业家。我们还将以与高级财经编辑的讨论开场，他昨晚撰写了一篇专栏文章，阐述为何他认为我们可能正处于AI狂热的高峰期，尤其是在股市中。

We've also got the CEO of Hinge Health. That is, of course, the health tech company that went public earlier this year. It is making a big play into the wearable space, and I am excited for that conversation. We're then bringing on the CEO of Augment. He is also the entrepreneur that previously sold his business to Shopify for $2,500,000,000, and we are also going to start things off with a discussion with our senior finance editor who wrote a column last night about how he thinks we could be at the peak of AI euphoria, especially in the stock market.

我对这场对话非常期待。但在开始之前，我想向大家重点介绍Vinod Khosla昨天在The Information发表的一篇评论文章。标题是一个问题：AI估值是否疯狂？这确实是一篇精彩的文章，因为它详细讲述了我们如何走到估值如此之高、如此丰厚的现状，同时Vinod指出估值较低的公司未必就是好的投资标的。他还从所有有限合伙人和风险基金的角度阐述了他们应该关注哪些指标，以及他如何看待未来十年风险投资行业的整体演变。

I'm excited for that conversation. But before we get there, I want to highlight for you an op ed that Vinod Khosla published in The Information yesterday. The headline is a question, Are AI Valuations Bonkers? It really is a great piece because it gives us a detailed history of how exactly we got to this point where valuations have gotten so high and so rich, and yet Vinod makes the point that the lower valuations will not necessarily be the ones that will be good investments. He also explains the story from the point of view of all the limited partners and all these venture funds, what metrics they should be looking they are looking at, and how he sees venture capital as a whole changing over the next ten years.

这是一篇引人入胜的文章。我会在节目备注中附上链接。说到这里，我想请出我们的第一位嘉宾。最近市场可以说有点疯狂，甲骨文股价昨日飙升就是最新的例证。

It is a fascinating piece. I will link it in the show notes. And with that, I want to get to our first guest. Well, the markets have been a bit crazy lately, to say the least. Oracle shares jumping yesterday were just the latest data point to that effect.

近期IPO市场也出现大幅波动。昨晚，The Information的高级财经编辑Ken Brown发表专栏文章表示，他认为我们可能正处于AI狂热的高峰期。我想请Ken来进一步阐述他的观点。Ken，欢迎来到TI TV，很高兴你能来。

IPOs have also been making big swings lately. And last night, the information senior finance editor, Ken Brown, put out a column that said that he thinks we could be at peak AI euphoria, and I want to bring on Ken to talk a bit more about what he meant. Ken, welcome to TI TV. It's great to have you here.

你好，Akash。

Hi, Akash.

好的。那么请为我们详细说明。你是在判断市场见顶，还是想表达什么其他观点？

Okay. So lay it out for us. Are you calling the top, or what was the point you were trying to get across?

哦，不，这件事会在未来几年里一直困扰我，对吧？不，你看，甲骨文公司股价上涨了36%，创造了数千亿美元的价值，仅仅因为他们说几年后会有大量收入。这不在他们的财报中，也不在任何官方文件中，而是几年后的事情。

Oh, know, this one's gonna come back to haunt me for years to come, right? No, look, it was just watching Oracle, the shares go up 36%, creating hundreds of billions of dollars in value, because they said that they're gonna have a whole bunch of revenue years down the road. This is not in their earnings. This is not in any official document. This is years down the road.

然后你仔细想想，这些收入从哪里来？会来自那些正在巨额亏损、需要大量融资的企业。所以从一开始就很疯狂，而且你越深入研究，就越觉得疯狂。看到它这样上涨，我就忍不住做出了反应，这就是我写的内容。

And then when you think about it, where's that revenue gonna come from? It's gonna come from businesses that are losing tons of money that need to raise tons of money. So it's crazy from the start, and then the deeper you look into it, it gets crazier. And so to see this thing go up the way it did, it just made me react, and that's what I wrote.

不过，不仅仅是甲骨文。你的意思是，你当时也指出能源行业对此也非常兴奋。

Now, it wasn't just Oracle though. Mean, you were also pointing out that the energy sector was also getting all excited about this.

是的，没错。所以昨天一大批围绕数据中心的股票都上涨了。像星座能源、Vistra和GE Vernova这样的公司——他们除了其他业务外还制造燃气发电机——昨天都是市场上表现最好的股票之一。再次说明，看到像GE Vernova这样的公司表现如此出色，实在令人难以置信，因为他们制造这些可以为数据中心供电的燃气轮机，但他们的订单积压已经到了2028年、2029年。

Yeah, yeah. So the whole bunch of stocks around data centers were up yesterday. Companies like Constellation Energy and Vistra and GE Vernova, which is they makes gas power generators among other things. They were all the top some of the top performers in the market yesterday. Again, it strains credibility to see that a company like mean, GE Vernover's have done great because they make these gas turbines that can power data centers, but they have a backlog up until 2028, 2029.

所以这不太合理，因为甲骨文说他们将在2030年2月创造所有这些收入。但可能没有足够的电力来让这些数据中心启动运行。

So it doesn't quite make sense, because Oracle says they're going to be making all this revenue in 02/1930. May not be enough power around to get these data centers off the ground.

好的。所以我想更深入地探讨一下电力这一块，但你知道，我一直在想的一个更广泛的问题是：如果我们正处于人工智能狂热的高峰，那么是什么催化剂会开始戳破这个泡沫？这个问题人们已经研究了几十年了。对吧。是什么导致泡沫破裂？

Okay. So I want to dive a little bit more into the power piece of this, but you know, I guess one thing broadly speaking of what I've been thinking about is, okay, if we are at peak AI euphoria, what is the catalyst that starts to sort of pop the bubble? And this is Look, I mean, people have been studying this question for decades now. Right. What causes bubbles to pop?

我的意思是，能源问题有点有趣，因为你和我之前讨论过，如果他们无法获得建设这些数据中心所需的能源，那么OpenAI投资的所有这些项目，可能真的就白费了。

I mean, the energy question is kind of interesting because one thing you and I were talking about was if they can't get the energy to build these data centers, I mean, all these projects that OpenAI is investing in, I mean, could be for naught really.

嗯，部分问题在于速度差异，对吧？AI行业在以百万英里每小时的速度发展，而能源行业却只有五英里每小时。这本身就是一个问题。他们会逐步建设电力设施，但速度跟不上科技界的步伐。所以，是的，这可能是个问题。

Well, some of it just gets at the speed, right? So the AI is moving at a million miles an hour, and the energy industry is moving at five miles an hour. And so that's just a problem. And they'll build the power over time, but not as fast as the tech world moves. And so, yeah, that could be an issue.

我的意思是，什么能让事物爆发？总是多种因素的累积让事物爆发。有大量顺风因素会持续推动它前进。但我刚才指出的只是这些交易和反应根本说不通。而事情可能长期都说不通。

I mean, what makes things pop? It's always an accumulated bunch of factors that make things pop. And there's a huge amount of tailwinds that are gonna keep pushing it forward. But all I was pointing out was there were these transactions and these reactions that just don't make any sense. And things can not make sense for a long time.

这种情况我们已经见了好几年了。所以这将是多种因素的累积。也许能源问题，也许一些公司无法筹集到他们声称的资金。我是说，OpenAI正在烧掉1000亿美元，也许他们不能再这样做了，然后就会让发展速度慢下来。

We've seen that for years. And so it's gonna be an accumulated group of factors. Right. Maybe energy, maybe some companies not being able to raise the money they say. I mean, OpenAI is burn $100,000,000,000 And maybe they can't do that anymore, and then that slows things down.

这将会是一系列的事情，人们会开始变得稍微谨慎一些。

And it's gonna be just a bunch of things, people are gonna start to snobber up a little bit.

那么，我们经常听说的所有这些可再生能源呢？我们甚至听说过更长期的赌注，比如我们节目中就请过核能公司。你是否觉得这些新兴技术有可能满足AI的需求？

Well, what about all these renewable energy sources that we hear about? We hear of even longer off bets, like we've had nuclear companies on the show, for example. Do you get any sense that these newer emerging technologies could at all satisfy the AI demand?

去年和今年美国90%的新发电量来自太阳能和风能。尤其是太阳能，它是最便宜的能源形式，部署速度也最快。当与电池配对时，它可以有效运行数据中心。但问题是特朗普政府一直在抵制可再生能源并对设备征收关税。所以这很困难。

Well, 90% of the new US power generation last year and this year was solar and wind. Has been Solar especially is the cheapest form of energy and the quickest to deploy. And when you pair it up with batteries, it can be effective for running data centers. So that but the problem is the Trump administration has been pushing back against renewables and putting tariffs on the gear. And so it's hard.

然后，天然气发电...天然气资源丰富，但发电机、涡轮机都需要建造。所以可再生能源会是更快捷的方式，人们正在使用它，但它面临着去年没有的阻力。而且

And then, the gas generation is just There's plenty of gas, but the generators, the turbines, they gotta be built. So the renewable energy would be the quick way to do it, and people are using it, But it has headwinds that it didn't have last And

这个故事是否也存在某种债务成分？因为我们昨天节目中有一位分析师评论，谈到甲骨文如何为其云业务融资建设这种能力，他指出，看吧，公司现在正在烧钱，所以他们可能会寻求举债。我们应该如何看待这个故事的债务方面？我们应该关注什么？

is there also sort of a debt component to this story? Because one of the comments that we had an analyst yesterday on the show, was talking about how Oracle finances building this capacity for its cloud business, and he pointed out, he said, Look, the company's burning cash right now, so they might look to raise debt. How should we be thinking about the debt side of the story? What should we be watching for?

是的，是的。你听过我对这个问题的长篇大论吧？科技界通常不太使用债务，对吧？他们使用股权、风投资金等等，而人工智能是一个资本密集型业务。所以这里有很多债务。

Yeah, yeah. You've heard me rant about this, right? The tech world usually doesn't use a lot of debt, right? It uses equity and VC money and all that, and this is a capital intensive business AI. And so there's a lot of debt.

债务的问题在于你必须偿还。所以有严格的期限，如果你没有产生现金流，你可以继续借款，但如果你不偿还，没有人会继续借钱给你，如果没有任何迹象表明你会偿还。所以，这可能会切断你的资金来源。因此，甲骨文将不得不面对这个问题。其他一些数据中心运营商，比如CoreWeave，就深陷债务之中。

The problem with debt is you gotta pay it back. And so there's strict deadlines and if you're not generating cash, you can keep borrowing, but no one's gonna keep lending you money if you're not paying it back, and if there's no sign, you're gonna pay it back. And so, that can cut you off. And so, Oracle's gonna have to do that. A bunch of these other data center operators, CoreWeave is buried in debt.

这一切可能都会顺利解决，对吧？他们可能增长得足够快，可能产生现金流，可能能够偿还债务，但这确实是一个风险，因为这涉及到时间问题，对吧？你没有无限的时间，因为你必须偿还债务。

It may all work out, right? They may grow fast enough, they may generate cash, and they may be able to pay it back, but that's a real risk because that gets at the timing of this, right? You don't have forever because you have to pay back the debt.

对，对。好的，一旦时间因素加入考虑。目前其实没有真正的期限。就像，你知道，你可以轻松地做出五年预测，但你说得对，一旦涉及债务，就会有人来找你说，嘿，钱在哪里？还款在哪里？

Right, right. Okay, well, once time comes into the picture. Right now, there are no deadlines really. It's just, you know, you could put out five year projections like it's nothing, but you are right that once debt comes into the picture, then somebody is coming to you and saying, Hey, Where is it? Where's the money?

所以我们都有过汽车贷款、信用卡贷款等等，对大公司来说也是一样的。

So We've all had car loans and credit card loans and all that, and it's the same for big companies.

对，对。好吧，大汽车。好的。那么，肯，非常感谢你来节目讨论这个话题。

Right. Right. Well, big cars. Alright. Well, Ken, thank you so much for coming on the show and talking about it.

这位是肯·布朗，我们The Information的高级财经编辑。好的，让我们请出下一位嘉宾。Hinge Health作为一家新上市公司正在探索发展之路。该公司今年早些时候在股市首次公开募股，目前进展相当顺利。股价上涨了约40%。

That is Ken Brown, our senior finance editor at The Information. Okay, let's get to our next guest. Well, Hinge Health is newly navigating life as a public company. The company debuted its shares on the stock market earlier this year, and it is going pretty well. Shares are up about 40%.

该公司拥有一个帮助肌肉骨骼疾病患者的数字平台，同时也在进军可穿戴设备领域。公司目前估值超过40亿美元，我想请CEO丹·佩雷斯来谈谈他正在打造的事业。丹，欢迎来到TI TV。很高兴你能来。

The company has a digital platform that helps people with musculoskeletal disorders, and it is also moving into the wearable space. The company is now worth more than $4,000,000,000 and I want to bring on CEO Dan Perez to talk about what he is building. Dan, welcome to TI TV. It's great to have you here.

谢谢邀请，阿卡什。

Thanks for having me, Akash.

对于那些不熟悉的观众，请向我们介绍一下Hinge Health致力于解决的疾病问题，以及你们构建的解决方案。

So for people who aren't familiar, just talk to us about what the disorder is that Hinge Health is trying to solve, and what you've built as a solution.

很好的问题。总的来说，我们的目标是利用技术来规模化、自动化地提供医疗服务。如果你纵观整个医疗行业，尽管投入了所有技术和资金——在美国这是一个数万亿美元的产业——但它仍然非常依赖人工操作，本质上仍是一个服务行业。当人们抱怨医疗成本，谈论其持续上涨时，正是因为这一领域尚未实现自动化。

Well, great question. So look, overall our aim is to use technology to scale and automate the delivery of care. And if you think about healthcare overall, despite all the technology, all the money that goes into healthcare, it's a multi trillion dollar industry in The US, it is remarkably manual. Is very much a services industry. You know, when people complain about healthcare costs, when people talk about how it's a relentless drive up, it's because it really hasn't been automated.

我们主要专注于骨科领域，即背部、关节和肌肉疼痛的治疗。对大多数雇主和健康计划来说，这是第一或第二大成本驱动因素。想想膝关节置换术、背部手术、膝关节镜手术、核磁共振检查、膝关节扭伤等。这些费用累加起来，我们的客户约有六分之一的医疗支出用于骨科护理。

We're tackling orthopedics, essentially, back, joint, and muscle pain in healthcare. And for most employers and health plans, it's the number one or number two largest cost driver. Think about knee replacements, back surgeries, knee arthroscopies, MRIs, twisted knees. These things add up, and it's about one in six healthcare dollars for our customers are spent orthopedic care.

没错。

Right.

我们最初是利用技术专注于物理治疗。但我们已经自动化了约95%与物理治疗相关的人类临床医生工作时间，我们希望继续在医疗保健领域推进，持续利用技术自动化更多医疗保健环节。

And then we're using technology to focus on physical therapy initially. But we've automated away about 95% of human clinician hours associated with PT, and we want to keep marching in healthcare, continuing to use technology to automate more aspects of healthcare.

那么你们的平台，是预先录制的内容打包成个性化计划，还是人们实际上通过远程医疗与物理治疗师进行数字交流？

And so your platform, is it pre recorded content that you sort of package together on personalized plans, or are people actually talking to a physical therapist digitally through telemedicine?

很好的问题。我们提供多种选择。每个加入我们项目的人都有自己的护理团队，我们坚信需要由人力驱动的护理团队。

Great question. So we have multiple options. So every single person who we onboard onto our program has their own care team, So we firmly believe in having, you know, human powered care teams as well.

好的。所以

Okay. So

他们有自己的物理治疗师。我们还有健康教练。我们可以联系医生和护士。而我们的技术能够在会员完成项目过程中自动化大部分互动，这让会员方便很多。

they have their own physical therapists. We also have health coaches. We have access to doctors. We have access to nurses. And our technology, however, is able to automate most of the interactions as they go through their program, and that makes it a lot more convenient for the member.

这使得成本大幅降低。让

That makes it much lower cost. Makes it

自动化互动具体是指什么？

little Automating interaction, what does that mean?

当您加入这个项目后，我们能够为您制定个性化的护理计划，您可以随时进行运动治疗，无论是凌晨2点还是下午2点。您无需担心共付额，也无需预约安排。任何时候如果想与物理治疗师沟通，您都可以直接联系。不过我们大多数会员只需通过我们的软件指导，就能在家完成运动治疗或物理治疗。

Well, when you come onto the program, we're able to create a custom care plan for you, and you're able to do your exercise therapy, whether it's at 2AM in the morning or, you know, 2PM in the day. You don't have to worry about co pays. Don't have to worry about setting up an appointment. If at any time you wanna speak to a physical therapist, you could speak to it, a physical therapist. But most of our members could just go right through using just our software as they guide it, guide them through their exercise therapy or the physical therapy right from home.

我们采用计算机视觉技术，利用手机前置摄像头追踪您身体的100个独特关键点。

And we use computer vision. So we use the front facing camera on your phone to track a 100 unique landmarks on your body.

好的。也就是说他们设置好摄像头，然后摄像头会分析您的动作方式，接着指导您说'手臂要这样抬或那样抬'。

Okay. So they set up the camera, and then the camera kind of studies how you're doing the movement, and then it coaches you saying, Well, lift your arm up that way or this way.

完全正确。我们会指导您进行背部疼痛、肘部疼痛、膝盖疼痛的康复训练，精确掌握您的活动范围。我们能追踪每次重复动作、每项训练，并提供实时反馈。就数据收集能力而言，我们比实体物理治疗诊所的数据精度更高，能帮助您长期追踪康复进展。

Exactly. We'll take you through your rehab for your back pain, your elbow pain, for your knee pain, and we know exactly what your range of motion was. We could track every rep, every exercise, and give you live feedback. We have higher fidelity than what you will see in an in person physical therapy clinic in terms of the data we're able to collect. We're able to help you track your progress over time.

用户在Hinge Health平台上每年完成的运动治疗课程超过30次，而普通人在实体诊所很难完成35次以上的物理治疗。因此我们的用户依从性要高得多。

And so the number of exercise therapy sessions that people do on Hinge Health in a year is well over 30, and I think it'd be very hard pressed for the average person who starts in person physical therapy to do 35 plus in person physical therapy sessions. So our adherence is much higher.

请允许我插句话，因为贵公司最吸引人的一点是你们向健康计划和雇主销售服务。我想问的是，当前人工智能热潮下，许多医疗公司都在尝试利用这项技术。您与健康计划方沟通时，他们如何看待AI？这改变了您与他们的对话性质或推销方式吗？还是他们说'我们对此不太了解'？

I'm going to jump in here, because one of the most fascinating parts of your business is that you are selling to health plans and to employers. And one of the questions I wanted to ask you is, we've seen this AI boom, and a lot of healthcare companies are trying to take advantage of that. As you're talking to health plans, how are they thinking about AI, and has that changed the nature of your conversation or your pitch to them, or are they saying, We don't really know about this?

这个问题很好。事实上，大多数人都期望健康保险能覆盖医疗费用。即使是150-200美元的物理治疗预约，我们也可能只需支付25美元共付额，期待保险能承担其余部分。因此作为医疗领域的科技公司，我们必须向企业客户、雇主和健康保险公司销售服务。而他们对人工智能持谨慎态度。

Well, it's a great point. Look, most of us expect our health insurance to kick in for healthcare. Even with a $150 $20 PT appointment, we expect maybe we'll pay a $25 copay, we expect health insurance to kick in. And so, as a technology company playing in healthcare, we have to sell to enterprise customers, employers, and health insurance companies. And they are cautious around AI.

技术的发展速度远超法规的更新步伐，而健康计划、健康保险公司和雇主往往更为谨慎，这是理所当然的。

Technology is moving a lot faster than the regulations are moving, and health plans, health insurance companies, and employers tend to be more cautious, and rightfully so.

他们并不买账。当你介绍说'嘿，我们有人工智能驱动的解决方案'时，他们并不会立即接受。不，他们不会。

They're not buying it. When you say, Hey, we've got this AI powered solution, they're not immediately. No, are.

他们其实是在接受的。他们想要了解更多。这不像你在设计领域开发AI工具，或者开发AI编程软件工具时，可以推出一堆功能——有些可能受欢迎，有些可能不行。在医疗保健领域，风险要高一些。

They are buying it. They want to learn more. It's not like if you're building an AI tool in design, or you're building a coding software tool in AI, you could launch a bunch of features. Some might stick, some might not. In healthcare, the stakes are a little bit higher.

因此他们想要了解：你们对AI的方法是什么？你们的AI是如何工作的？而且会有更多问题。如果你在医疗保健领域创建AI公司，并试图向企业客户销售，你需要跨越更高的性能门槛来证明产品的安全性。我们很幸运能够做到这一点。

And so they want to understand, well, what is your approach to AI? How does your AI work? And there's going to be more questions. If you're building an AI company in healthcare, and you're trying to sell to enterprise customers, there's going to be a higher performance barrier for you to demonstrate the safety of your product. We've been very lucky to do that.

我们的计算机视觉技术实际上是AI的一个子领域，甚至在ChatGPT推出之前，我们就已经开始在这方面深耕。所以我们知道AI将会进入医疗保健领域，而且它必须进入，因为如果不将医疗保健自动化，我们就无法降低医疗成本。

Our computer vision, the computer vision is actually a subfield of AI, and we've been working on this well before even ChatGPT was launched. So we knew that AI was coming to healthcare, and it needs to come to healthcare, because if you do not automate healthcare, we will not lower cost in healthcare.

他们是否要求提供更多数据？如果门槛更高，他们是否要求更多证据？绝对是的。AI是

Are they asking for more data out that? If the bar is higher, are they asking for more evidence Absolutely. AI is

无论AI是一种技术还是其他形式，只要你的技术涉及提供护理，他们都希望更好地理解。如果人类不在循环中，或者AI或技术代表患者护理做出决策，你们采取了哪些保障措施？你们在做什么？有哪些监督机制？你们的过往记录如何？

Whether AI is one type of technology, but yeah, any way that your technology is delivering care, they want to better understand. If a human is not in a loop, or if the AI is or the technology is making decisions on behalf of a patient's care, what have you done to safeguard this? What are you doing? What sort of oversight is there? What is your track record?

现在非常幸运的是，通过我们的项目已经治疗了超过150万人，因此我们拥有非常非常良好的记录。但没错，如果你正在创建一家医疗保健领域的AI公司，并且要实际治疗患者，而不仅仅是开发一些自动化运营的后台软件，你最好理解可能会出现什么问题，对吧？你甚至如何确定人们会

Now we're very lucky that we have over now a million and a half people who've been treated by our program, so we have a very, very good track record. But yeah, if you are building a company, an AI company in healthcare that's going to actually treat patients, not just some back office software that's just automating operations, you should better understand how might this go wrong, right? How are you even sure that people are going to

是安全的，因为风险实在太高了。所以你们还有这款可穿戴设备，这让我非常着迷。我有点想问问你们决定涉足可穿戴设备的原因，因为你看，你们是一家上市公司，利润率很高，现在就像软件公司的利润率一样。可穿戴设备是一个相当艰难的行业。那么你们为什么还需要做可穿戴设备呢？

be safe because the stakes are simply higher So in you've also got this wearables device, is so fascinating to me. I kind of want to ask you about the decision to do something in wearables, because look, you're a public company, your margins are great. They're like software company margins right now. Wearables is a really hard business. And so why do you need to do wearables at all?

嗯，你看，我们致力于自动化医疗保健服务本身，对吧？医疗保健领域通常有很多技术处于边缘位置。大多数医疗保健服务仍然是患者与提供者一对一进行的。我坚信软件很快将自动化医疗保健的所有非接触方面。想想看——

Well, look, we are committed to automating healthcare delivery itself, right? There's a lot of technology in healthcare usually on the periphery. Most healthcare delivery is still one on one with the provider. I firmly believe that software will soon automate all non touch aspects of healthcare. Think about like-

所以AI正在取代非接触医生。你是这个意思吗？

So AI is replacing non touch doctors. That's what you're saying?

医疗保健的认知方面。任何涉及思考的医疗保健方面，比如，这是你的症状，我正在解读你的症状。那是模式识别。大型语言模型可以做得非常好。我正在评估你的实验室结果，试图解读它们，以及这意味着什么，你的实验室结果可能带来什么影响。

Cognitive aspects of healthcare. Any aspect of healthcare that involves just thinking about it, look, here's your symptoms, and I'm interpreting your symptoms. That's pattern recognition. That is an LLM could do that very well. I'm evaluating your labs and trying to interpret your labs and what this means and what might be the implications of your labs.

那是认知性的。这绝对可以由AI来完成。但医疗保健还有很多接触方面，仍然需要移动物品或连接硬件。如果你致力于自动化医疗保健，你还必须考虑连接硬件，以便自动化接触方面。所以这实际上是我们的连接硬件。

That's cognitive. That could absolutely be done by AI. But there's a lot of touch aspects of healthcare that still require moving things about or connected hardware. If you're committed to automating healthcare, you're going to have to think about connected hardware as well, so you could automate the touch aspects. So this is actually our connected hardware.

它大约有半美元硬币大小。是一款疼痛管理设备。

It's about the size of a half dollar. It's a pain management device.

是的，你看。你可以把它贴在脖子或肩膀上，随便哪里都行，然后

Yeah, see. You can you stick it on your neck or your shoulder, whatever, and then

没错。它通过身体直接传递电神经刺激，为我们的患者提供了一种非手术、非侵入性、非成瘾性的疼痛缓解方式。我们拥有大约15项专利。我们还将申请大约五项左右的专利——

it Exactly. Delivers electrical nerve stimulation directly through the body, gives our patients a nonsurgical, non invasive, non addictive way for their pain relief. Have about 15 patents. We're going to be filing five or so more-

它也已经获得了FDA的批准。

It's FDA approved as well.

而且它也获得了FDA的批准。没错，FDA已经批准了，我们对此非常兴奋，我们在这个设备上投入了相当多的资金，并且我们正在投资更多的硬件。我认为如果你是一家医疗保健公司，特别是如果你能够获得企业报销，只要你的治疗效果非常好，你仍然可以有可观的利润空间，因为医疗保健领域的定价实际上比其他行业要高得多。

And it's FDA approved as well. Right. FDA cleared, which we're really excited about, and we've invested quite a bit into this device, and we're investing in more hardware. And I think if you're a healthcare company, particularly if you're unlocking enterprise reimbursements, you could still have robust margins so long as your outcomes are really good, because the price points in healthcare are actually a lot higher than price points in other areas of industry.

所以我想回到刚才的话题。软件将自动化医疗保健中所有非接触的方面。

So I just want to go back to So software will automate all non touch aspects of healthcare.

你知道确实如此。

You know it is.

绝对正确。所以这算是开发可穿戴设备的理由。但我想我的问题是，如果软件正在完成你所说的医生现在做的一些认知工作，那么你认为医生未来的角色会是什么？

Absolutely. Right. So that's sort of the rationale for building a wearables device. But I guess my question is, so what do you see the role of the doctor then going forward if software is doing some of that cognitive work that you say they do right now?

这是个很好的问题。如果我是一个正在读本科的医学预科生，考虑从医职业，我会觉得从老一辈或二十年资历的医生那里得到的建议在很多方面已经有些过时了，世界正在非常、非常快速地变化。而我们——

It's a great question. If I was a pre med student in undergrad right now considering a career in medicine, I would think the advice I'm getting from the old guard or from twenty year veterans would be somewhat stale advice in many ways, the world is changing very, very fast. And we're-

那么你的建议是什么？你会给他们什么建议？

So what's your advice then? What do you advise them?

嗯，要保持清醒的认识，世界正在走向自动化。人工智能、Hinge Health等数字健康公司，我们不是偶然涉足医疗保健。未来正在改变医疗保健，而且速度比以往任何时候都要快得多。过去医疗保健在一定程度上被技术的自动化所忽视。技术已经自动化、改进和精简了许多其他行业，但尚未真正触及医疗保健，而现在医疗保健正在被医疗保健自身改变，人工智能正在改变医疗保健。

Well, to be eyes wide open, the world is moving towards automation. The AI, Hinge Health and digital health companies, we are not happening to healthcare. The future is happening to healthcare, and it's happening a lot faster than it's ever happened before. Healthcare in the past has been somewhat ignored from technology's automation. Technology's automated and improved and streamlined a lot of other industries, and has not really touched healthcare, and now healthcare is coming for healthcare, and AI is coming for healthcare.

我认为患者很快会要求更多人工智能的应用，因为人工智能显示在解读症状方面往往比人类医生更准确一些。所以我认为医生的角色将会改变，他们最能增加价值的地方我将

And I think patients will soon be demanding more AI, because AI is showing that it could often be a little bit more accurate than human doctors in terms of interpreting symptoms. And so I think doctors, their roles will change, and where they're adding most value I will

得打断你一下，但请跟我简单探讨一下。让我们想想。那么医患体验会是什么样子？它会改变，但怎么改变？未来看医生的场景会是怎样的

got to let you go, but riff with me here for a second. Let's think. So what is the doctor patient experience? It'll change, but how? What is the future of doctor visit

我们将会在医疗保健中看到越来越多的自动化。

We're like going to see progressively more automation in healthcare.

好的，所以我甚至都不用去医生办公室了。

Okay, so I don't even go to the doctor's office.

嗯，我认为你仍然需要去诊所。医疗保健中许多物理层面的、非结构化的实际操作任务很难实现自动化，真的非常困难。想象一下像嵌甲这样低风险的情况，我们还没有能处理这个的机器人。你的家庭医生、内科医生、儿科医生仍然需要执行这类操作。

Well, I think you'll still go to the doctor's office. It's going to be really, really hard to automate a lot of physical aspects of healthcare, these unstructured physical tasks. Imagine something as low risk as an ingrown toenail. We do not have a robot that could do that. Your family medicine doctor, an internal medicine doctor, a pediatrician's still going to have to do that, that sort of procedure.

而且我们目前还没有能够抽血的机器人，或者根本还没有这样的机器人。所以诊所里还是需要技术人员来完成这项工作。医疗保健中有很多需要人工接触的环节，要实现自动化还需要很多很多年。但是你看，LASIK手术现在95%都是由机器人完成的。

And so there are plenty of we don't have a robot that could drop blood anymore or at all yet. So you have a technician in your clinic who's going to have to do that. So there's many touch aspects of healthcare, it's going to take us many, many years to automate. But look, LASIK is a surgery, I think that's 95% delivered by a robot today. Be

我猜这就是我听到的意思，当外科医生。每个人每个人都会

I a guess that's what I'm hearing, be a surgeon. Everyone everyone would have been

机器人手术，机器人手术正在到来。

Robotic surgeries robotic surgeries are coming.

是的。嗯，正在到来，专门处理嵌甲的第二专业。也许这就是，你知道吗？也许这就是，不知道。

Yeah. Well Coming coming for a second specialize in getting the ingrown toenails out. Maybe that's You know? Maybe that's don't know.

这些并不是医疗保健中最光鲜的部分，但是我我

Those aren't the most glamorous parts of health care, but I I

它们不会被自动化。所以

would They're not being automated. So

我没有水晶球，但我确实知道它正在改变。我仍然坚信，在很长一段时间内，人类医疗工作者将与技术协同工作，在医疗保健领域发挥作用。我认为那些不理解人工智能、不拥抱技术的医生，未来将会很艰难。而那些拥抱技术、学会将技术融入日常实践的医生，将会得到增强，成为最优秀的临床医生之一。我认为这对设计师来说也是如此。

I I don't have a crystal ball, but I I know it's it's changing. I still firmly believe there is a role for human providers in healthcare for a long time working with technology. I think doctors who don't understand AI and are not embracing technology, I think will struggle in the future. Doctors who do embrace technology, who do learn how to embed technology into their day to day practice, will be augmented and will become some of the best clinicians. And I think that's true of designers.

如果你是一名设计师，一名真正优秀的设计师，你使用AI，你将成为一名伟大的设计师。如果你是一名设计师，或者不那么优秀的设计师，却不拥抱AI，你将会被淘汰。是的。所以这不仅仅是针对医生，对于设计、工程、产品管理、销售角色都是如此。你知道，它将改变我们所有的工作。

If you're a designer, a really good designer, you use AI, you will become a great designer. If you're a designer, or not so good of a designer, don't embrace AI, you will be rendered obsolete. Yeah. So that's going to be the case, not just for doctors, but for design, for eng, for product management, for sales roles. You know, it's going to change all of our jobs.

没错。这很令人兴奋。

Right. It's exciting.

好的，丹，非常感谢你来到这个精彩的节目，我确实想下次你来的时候更多地和你聊聊可穿戴设备业务，因为我认为关于这个业务的发展方向以及它可能占你业务的百分比，有很多可谈的。但这留到另一次讨论。这位是Hinge Health的首席执行官丹·佩雷斯，这是他第一次上我们的节目。我们的下一位嘉宾将他的电子商务物流公司以25亿美元的价格卖给了Shopify。这是一次大的退出，但那已经是三年前了。现在，哈里什·阿博特又回到了创始人的位置，正在建立一家名为Augment的AI物流公司。

Well, Dan, thank It's you so much for coming on the a fascinating business, and I do want to talk to you more about the wearables business next time you come on, because I think there's a lot to talk about where that business could go and what percent of your business it could become. But that is for another discussion. That is Dan Perez, the CEO of Hinge Health, his first Okay. Time on Our next guest sold his e commerce fulfillment company to Shopify for $2,500,000,000 It was a big exit, but that was three years ago. Now, Harish Abbott is back in the founder seat building an AI logistics company called Augment.

该公司在五个月内从Redpoint Ventures和8BC等知名风险投资公司那里筹集了1.1亿美元。我想请哈里什来谈谈他想要把这家公司带向何方。哈里什，欢迎来到节目。很高兴你能来。

The company has raised $110,000,000 in five months from big name venture capitalists like Redpoint Ventures and 8BC. I want to bring on Harish to talk about where he wants to take this company. Harish, welcome to the show. It's great to have you.

谢谢邀请。很高兴来到这里。你知道，我听了你们之前的片段，我觉得我需要一个那样的设备。我今天早上干活时刚伤了背。

Thank you for having me. It's great to be here. You know, I was listening to your previous segment, and I think I need one of those devices. I just hurt my back this morning working

天啊。好吧，你在做什么锻炼？给我们透露一下秘诀。

on it. Oh my gosh. Well, what exercises are you doing? Give us the secrets.

我想当时我正在做卧推，我觉得我只是没有调整好姿势。所以，呃

I think it was I was doing some bench presses, and I think I just I did not position myself well. So Oh,

老兄。你知道，你必须把脚稳稳地踩在地板上。明白吗？那那那是关键。是什么来着？

man. It's it was you know, you gotta keep the feet planted on the floor. You know? That that that's that's the key. What is it?

背部要拱起？保持背部拱起？我不确定。我得我得问我兄弟。他他才是我们家练举重的。好吧。

Arch keep the back arch? I don't know. I'm I gotta I gotta ask my brother. He's he's the lifter in the family. Okay.

但让我们谈谈另一个重要的'举重'，那就是物流业务。这是个这是个很有深度的话题。在深入之前，我确实想问你。你把公司以25亿美元卖给了Shopify。对吧？

But let's talk about another big lift, which is the business of logistics. It's a it's it's a meaty topic. Before we get into that, I do wanna ask you. You sold your company for $2,500,000,000 to Shopify. Okay?

你为什么还要做这个？我心想，你根本不需要再做这些了。为什么你现在还要做？嗯，我

Why are you doing I'm like, You don't need to do this. Why are you doing this now? Well, I

认为，你知道，我热爱创造，你总是会做自己最享受的事情，而这就是我最享受的——也就是创造。我认为第二点是，人工智能可能是我见过的

think, you know, I love building, and you kind of do things that that you enjoy most, and this is what I enjoy most, which is building. I think two is AI is probably the most transformative technology I've

最具变革性的技术

seen in

我的生活。我当时想，这是我们难得的机会，可以与一个一直对技术如此抗拒的行业结合。

my lives. And I was like, this is like one time we can marry with an industry that has been so resistant to technology.

可能甚至超过25亿。可能是35亿，谁知道呢？我的意思是，我

Could be even more than 2,500,000,000.0. Could be 3,500,000,000.0 Who knows? I mean, I

认为这不仅仅是钱的问题，它不会改变生活方式。更重要的是，我们能否在这里产生有意义的影响？

think it's less about money is not going to change the lifestyle. It is more about, can we have a meaningful impact here?

没错。

Right.

这个领域迫切需要它，它如此重要。这就是创造的乐趣，你懂吗？

That badly needs it, it's so vital. It's just the joy of building, you know?

所以，好吧。你谈到AI是一个机会，我同意。但很多时候，当我们与风投交谈时，他们会说，嘿，重要的不是产品，而是问题。所以我想知道的是，是什么问题让你如此充满活力地回来成为创始人？这并不容易。

So, okay. So you talked about AI being an opportunity, and I'm with you. But a lot of times, when we talk to VCs, they say, Hey, it's not about the product, it's about the problem. And so what I want to know from you is, what is the problem that got you so energized to come back and be a founder? It's not easy.

无论有多少钱，你现在痴迷于解决什么问题？

With any amount of money, what is the problem that you're addicted to right now?

是的。阿米特，你看，物流行业规模非常庞大，同时也极其分散，对吧？仅在美国就有100万家卡车运输公司。可能有数万家经纪公司和货运公司。还有数十万家托运人。

Yeah. Amit, see, logistics is very large, and it's also extremely fragmented, right? Like in The US alone, there is 1,000,000 truck driving companies. There are maybe tens of thousands of brokers and freight. There are hundreds of thousands of shippers.

所以这是一个极其分散的行业。

So it's an extremely fragmented industry.

没错。

Right.

需要经过多个人、多个公司的处理，才能让你桌上的那个咖啡杯到达现在的位置。可能涉及15到20家公司。

Multiple people have to touch something, multiple companies, for that coffee mug that you have on your table to get where it is at. Maybe 15 to 20 companies.

对。

Right.

所以当

So when

一个行业如此分散，但为了运输货物，他们必须交换信息。

an industry is so fragmented, but in order to move goods, they have to trade information.

是的。

Yeah.

但这个行业太分散了，唯一在这些人群中通用的方式就是电子邮件、电话和短信。

But the industry is so fragmented that the only way that is common among all these people is emails and phone calls and texts.

好的。

Okay.

所有这些方法都是异步的，但它们都需要带宽。

All of those methods are both asynchronous, but they're all bandwidth.

然后就像这样，嘿，这批货物现在到哪儿了？这批货物现在在哪儿？

And this like, hey, what's the update on where this freight Freight is. Where this cargo is, Now

我可以规划我的劳动力。我可以安排我的预约。然后我可以安排下一批需要从这个仓库发出的货物。每个人都需要知道最新情况。每个人都需要知道卡车在哪里，库存在哪里，有多少库存即将到达。

I can plan my labor. I can schedule my appointments. Then I can schedule my next thing that needs to go out of this warehouse. Everybody needs to know the updates. Everybody needs to know where a truck is at, where the inventory is at, how much inventory is coming.

集装箱在港口晚点了吗？

Is a container late on a port?

好的。

Okay.

如果你计划下一件事，想象一下有20家公司需要协调才能把你桌上的那个小水瓶生产出来。

If you plan the next thing, and imagine there's a chain of 20 companies that have to coordinate for that little water flask that you have on your table.

是的。

Yeah.

如果其中一家公司延误了，就会产生连锁反应。这会造成大量的低效和浪费，因为我虽然制定了人力计划，但却无法确定集装箱是否能准时到达。这是一个庞大的行业。当你把所有参与者都考虑进来时，这个行业的规模非常巨大。

And one of them is late, and there's a whipsaw effect. And so what that does, it creates lots of inefficiency, lots of waste, because I have my labor plan, but I don't know if that container is going to come on time. Right. And this is massive industry. So when you multiply that across all the participants, this industry is very large.

这就是让我感到兴奋的地方。我们能否减少这种浪费？能否让这个行业比现状更高效？

That's what got me excited. You know, like, could we bring this waste down? Could we make this industry more efficient than the status quo?

好的。所以这就是问题所在。现在，谈谈你的业务和产品，我想第一款产品叫Augie，是Augment的缩写。那么它与Flexport这样的公司有什么不同？

Okay. So that's the problem. Now, you know, your business and the product, I think the first product is called Augie, the name of the product, short for Augment. So how is that different from a company like Flexport?

是的。Augie就像是第一个产品，它就像一名员工。是一个AI队友。它的外观和感觉与远程员工没有什么不同，就像一个助手。

Yeah. So Augie is like, the first product is like an employee. It's an AI teammate. It looks and feels no different than a remote employee. Like an assistant.

是的，您的助手。它驻留在您的Teams中，拥有电子邮件功能，甚至能收发短信。但在幕后，它能完成数千人24/7不间断的工作，并消除所有目前让物流行业操作员不堪重负的繁琐、重复和单调的工作。

Yes, your assistant. Sits on your Teams. It has an email. It even has a text message. But behind the scenes, it can do work of thousands of people 20 fourseven and take off all the tedious, repetitive, mundane work that today is drowning the operators in this business.

如果我消除了这些负担，就能解放操作员，让他们从事更具创造性的工作、更多关系维护类的工作。这就是我们的第一个产品。就像是：嘿，Augie，成为物流领域每个人的助手，成为每位操作员的助手，让他们的工作效率翻倍。这样他们就能专注于更重要的问题，而不是疲于追逐邮件、文档、短信、电话等等。

And if I take those away, I'm freeing up the operators to do more creative work, more relationship work. And so that's the first product. Like, Hey, Augie, be this assistant to every person in logistics, every operator in logistics, make them twice as more productive. So now they can focus on more important problems versus chasing emails and documents and texts and calls and whatnot.

您看，我们在The Information报道过的一个话题就是物流行业的周期性。说实话，我关注这个领域的时间并不长。但至少自疫情以来，我们已经看到了周期性波动。这个行业一直都具有周期性吗？还是说这只是过去五年供应链危机带来的特殊现象？

You see something like One of the things that we've covered at the information is the cyclicality of the logistics sector. And look, I haven't been following the space for very long. We have seen cyclicality, at least since the pandemic. Has it always been a cyclical business? Is this just a sort of a last five years thing with the supply chain crunch?

您认为您的产品能在某种程度上帮助应对这种情况吗？或者这更像是一个更广泛的系统性问题？

Do you see your product being able to help with something like that at all, or is that sort of a broader systemic issue?

是的。由于高度分散和几乎没有准入壁垒，这个行业一直具有周期性。当需求高涨时，大量参与者会涌入这个行业。比如需求高时，卡车司机会说我想开始跑运输。很快就会出现很多很多卡车司机，这会导致运输价格下降。

Yeah. So this industry's always been cyclical because of this high degree of fragmentation and no barriers to entry. When there's high demand, multiple participants come in this industry. So if there's high demand, a truck driver says, I want to start driving the truck. And soon enough, there's many, many truck drivers that brings the prices of the truck go down.

然后部分司机就会逐渐退出这个行业。这个循环持续不断。显然，新冠疫情带来的周期性波动超出了正常周期阶段。需求在某个阶段急剧上升，价格随之上涨，涌入物流行业的人数也非常非常多。过去四年对这个行业来说非常艰难，因为自那以后价格持续低迷，供应正在缓慢退出市场，但还没有完全出清。

And then some drivers sort of move out of the business. And this cycle continues. Now, COVID clearly was a cyclicality that was beyond a normal cyclical stage. So it went up, demand went up at a stage, and so the prices went up and the amount of people that came into logistics was very, very high. And it's now, the last four years have been really tough on this industry, because since then, the prices have been depressed, slowly and slowly, the supply is going out of the market, but it's not entirely there yet.

像我们这样的公司能帮助的是：当你身处这样一个有起有落的周期性行业，需要在这些周期中招聘然后又可能裁员时，有了AI队友，你可能就不需要全部依赖人力了，对吧？如果你的需求增长50%，可能只需要招聘10%到20%的人力，然后让AI完成大部分其他工作。

Companies like ours can help is that, as you go into a cyclical industry where you have ups and downs, and you are like hiring and then maybe potentially attriting people through these cycles, with AI teammates, you may not have to do all of that, right? If your demand goes up by 50%, you may only need to hire 10 to 20%, and then let AI do most of the other work.

我明白了。你认为这有可能帮助这些公司平滑盈利能力，因为他们不必如此剧烈地扩大或缩小业务规模。

I see. You see it potentially helping smoothen out profitability for these companies, because they won't have to upsize or downsize their businesses as drastically.

完全正确。我认为这将为他们的利润底线、损益表带来更多可预测性，因为现在当需求增加时，他们可以依赖像Augie或Augment这样几乎拥有无限能力的人来承担工作。

Exactly. And I think, so it will bring more predictability to their bottom lines, their P and Ls, because now they can rely on, you know, almost somebody with an infinite capacity like Augie or Augment to take on the work when the demand goes up.

好的。那么我的最后一个问题是，我要读一下你的简历，因为你在出售企业方面有着惊人的记录。你创办了一家名为eugenie.com的企业，后来卖给了lulu.com。

Right. Okay. So my last question for you is, I'm going read through a bit of your resume here, because you've got a stunning track record of people buying your businesses. Okay, you started a business called eugenie.com. Was sold to lulu.com.

这是第一个。然后你创立了Symphony Commerce，被Quantum Retail收购。接着你创立了Deliverr，卖给了Shopify。现在你是第四次创业了。我的问题是，谁会收购Augment？

That was number one. Then you founded Symphony Commerce that was acquired by Quantum Retail. Then you founded Deliverr, it was sold to Shopify. And so, you're at it for the fourth time. My question is, who is going to buy Augment?

听着，作为建设者，你希望你的企业比你更长久，对吧？所以我正在建设Augment，让它比我更持久，比建设它的人更持久。这是一个可能上市的多代企业。

Well, listen, as a builder, you hope your businesses outlast you, you know? And so I'm building Augment so that it outlasts me, it outlasts people who are building it. You know, it's a generational company that potentially goes public.

没错。但我意思是，简单来说，如果我们考虑这个问题，潜在的收购方可能是？你知道，我

Right. But I mean, real quick, mean, could potential acquirers be if we think about that? You know, I

说实话我还没考虑过这个问题。我确实没想过要建立一个独立的企业，但大型软件公司确实存在。你知道，有像SAP这样的公司，还有新一代公司如Salesforce等。我认为它们都需要相当深入的智能代理策略，而且都会尝试以自己的方式实现。然后像我们这样的产品也会尝试走自己的路。

mean, I really haven't thought about that. I honestly didn't think about building an independent business, but very large software companies. You know, you've got companies like SAP, you've got companies like you know, then you have new generation companies like, Salesforce and others. I think they all need fairly deep, agentic strategies, and they're all going to attempt to get at their own way. Then products like ours who are going to attempt at getting their own way.

时间会证明谁会赢。你知道，我们只是痴迷于让客户满意并取悦他们，我认为只要你做到这一点，一切都会水到渠成。

Time will tell who will win and who's. You know, we are just obsessed about making our customers happy and delighting them, and I think everything takes care once you do that.

没错。太好了。Harish，非常感谢你参加节目，我希望你的背能感觉好一些。也许Hinge Health能给你一些建议。我们可以帮你联系Dan Perez。

Right. Well, great. Harish, thank you so much for coming on the show, and I hope that your back feels a little bit better. Maybe Hinge Health might have some advice for you. We could put you in touch with Dan Perez.

也许他能帮忙解决这个问题。这位是Augment的首席执行官Harish Abbott。

Maybe he can help out with that. That is Harish Abbott, the CEO of Augment.

谢谢。

Thank you.

好的。关于旧金山以及它能否在疫情后重振雄风的讨论很多。本周早些时候，我们的主编Jessica Lessen与她的朋友、Eventbrite的首席执行官Julia Hartz进行了一次对话，讨论了旧金山的活动场景，为什么Eventbrite大力押注创作者，以及即将到来的StubHub IPO对市场意味着什么。以下是Julia Hartz和Jessica Lessen的对话。

Okay. Well, there's been a lot of chatter about San Francisco and whether or not it can regain its buzz post pandemic. Earlier this week, Jessica Lessen, our editor in chief, sat down for a conversation with her friend, Julia Hartz, the CEO of Eventbrite, to discuss the San Francisco event scene and why Eventbrite is betting big on creators, and also what the upcoming StubHub IPO signals about the market. Here is that conversation with Julia Hartz and Jessica Lessen.

谢谢，Akash。我非常兴奋能在这里与Eventbrite的首席执行官兼联合创始人Julia Hartz在一起。Julia，你好吗？

Thank you, Akash. And I'm so excited to be here with Julia Hartz, the CEO and co founder of Eventbrite. Julia, how are you?

我很好，Jess。你呢？

I'm doing great, Jess. How are you?

我很好。现在是初秋时节，感觉我收到了很多活动的邀请，这意味着活动季到了。虽然可能实际上没收到那么多邀请，但特别是在我们的家乡旧金山，市场似乎大家都回归线下活动了。所以现在是了解你看到的所有动态的好时机。

I am great. It's, the start of fall, and I feel like, I'm getting invited to a bunch of stuff, which means it's event season. So wanted to not not I'm probably not getting invited to that much stuff. But it feels like, especially in our home city of San Francisco, the market is we're we're all back to live events. So good time to check-in on all the things that you're seeing.

再次感谢你参加TI TV节目。

So thank you again for being on TI TV.

谢谢邀请

Thank you for having

我。那么让我们开始吧，先来点硬新闻。接下来一周左右，StubHub即将进行IPO。嗯。这是什么？

me. So let's start let's actually start a little hard news. So we have, coming up in the next week or so, the StubHub IPO. Mhmm. What is it?

你已经成为公开市场上几家现场活动业务公司中的一员有段时间了。现在有新的人进场，盯着这个机会。这对公开市场的现场活动来说是一个有趣的时刻、有趣的考验吗？你从这方面看到了什么？

You've you've been the lot one of several live events businesses on the public markets for more time now. You you we there are new people, coming, eyeing the opportunity. Is this an interesting moment, an interesting test of live events in the public markets, or what are you seeing from that front?

你知道，我认为这标志着对现场活动行业的兴趣和韧性，这对我们所有人来说都是一个很好的长期顺风。我认为规模化的现场活动上市公司很少，我们于2018年2月在纽约证券交易所上市。特别是对StubHub和粉丝来说，这将是一个提高透明度的好时机，尤其是在消费者费用方面，我认为这对整个行业都是好事。而且，我认为这再次为现场活动经济发出了一个积极的信号。正如你所说，这个市场充满活力。

You know, I think that it's it's signaling interest and resilience in the live events industry, which is a great secular tailwind for all of us. I think there's few public scaled live events companies, and we listed on the New York Stock Exchange in 02/2018. I think for particularly for StubHub and for fans, this will be a great time for them to up their transparency, particularly around fees consumers, which I think will be a great thing for the industry overall. And, you know, I think again, I think it's a great signal for the live events economy. And to your point, it's, you know, it's vibrant.

正在蓬勃发展。这真正是由消费者推动的文化转变，他们希望走出屏幕背后，通过在现实生活中线下连接他们在网上培养的爱好，寻求更多屏幕与生活的平衡。

It's booming. It's really driven by consumers making this cultural shift of wanting to get out from behind their screens and seek more of a screen life balance by connecting, you know, with their passions that they're cultivating online, but offline in the real world.

是的。而且你是否觉得，疫情后叙事出现了巨大的繁荣，因为我们记起可以再次见到人们了。是的。然后，我认为自那以后的趋势是怎样的？显然，Eventbrite，你们一直专注于运营方面并取得了良好进展，但需求在“哦，等等，我们可以再次见面了”之后是如何净增长的？

Yep. And do you I feel like the narrative was this huge boom post pandemic because we remembered we could see people again. Yeah. And, you know And then I think it's been like, what has the trend been since then? Obviously, Eventbrite, you've taught you've been focused and made good strides on the operational side, but how is demand kind of netting out post that, oh, wait, we can see people again?

嗯，我认为是的，确实有一个巨大的繁荣，一个巨大的爆发，哦，哇，我们直到失去才知道自己错过了什么。然后是一股狂热的浪潮，人们涌向所有能想象的现场活动。而现在我们看到转变正在发生，实际上更接近在线世界的模式，在这个碎片化的数字时代，你非常了解这一点，我认为人们真正希望将他们的利基身份转化为线下活动。所以他们正在寻求与真正独特、不一定主流的社区建立线下联系。我指的是精心策划的生活方式仪式、粉丝驱动的文化、向往的逃离体验。

Well, I think that it's yes, there was this big boom, this big pop of, oh, wow, we didn't know what, you know, what we missed until it was taken away. And this big fervor around going out to every live event you could possibly imagine. And now we see the shift happening in much more much more in line actually with the online world where, you know, in this fragmented digital age, which you know very much about, I think that people are really looking to turn their niche identities into what they do offline. So they're seeking these offline connections with communities that are truly unique and not, not necessarily mainstream. So I'm talking, you know, curated lifestyle rituals, fandom driven culture, aspirational escapes.

什么是精心策划的生活方式？我知道粉丝文化。是的。精心策划的生活方式。是的。

What's curated lifestyle? I know fandom. Yeah. Curated lifestyle. Yeah.

这像是团体冥想吗？

Is this like group meditation?

哦，这个话题可以聊一整天。特别是Z世代，我们整天都在关注他们，他们正在寻找方法来创造对抗数字疲劳的解药。我举几个例子。“奶奶风”正在兴起。奶奶风活动如麻将、编织俱乐部、静默读书俱乐部，人们聚在一起实际上是安静地读书，而不是讨论他们没读过的书。

Oh, well, could talk about this all day long. So, you know, particularly Gen Z, who we obsess about all day long, they are seeking out ways to create the antidote to their digital exhaustion. So I'll give you a couple of of examples. Granny core is on the rise. Granny core activities like mahjong, knitting clubs, silent book clubs where people are getting together to actually read the book in silence rather than discuss the book they didn't read.

这些活动在平台上大幅增长。类似地，我们创造了“软俱乐部”这个词，最近确实获得了一些关注。因为在夜生活中，我们看到更少的Z世代出去喝酒，但他们仍然想出去俱乐部。所以他们找到了聚在一起的方式，而不一定是那种硬核俱乐部的氛围。所以我们看到咖啡俱乐部活动增加，早晨狂欢派对增加。

Those are are up massively on the platform. Similarly, we've coined the term soft clubbing, which is has really gained some traction as of late. Because in nightlife, we're seeing less Gen Z going out to drink, but they still wanna go out and club. So they're finding ways to get together without necessarily, like, the hard clubbing vibe. So we're seeing coffee clubbing events up, morning raves up.

罗格斯在这里。

Rutgers are here.

从没去过。但在这里，它们就是新的热门

Never been to one. But here, they're they're the new hotness

或者也许吧。是的，他们确实错过了

or maybe Yeah. They're really missing

我永远不会加入老套的俱乐部。好吧。所以你现在看到的是，这一切某种程度上都是疫情后是否发生了变化。你和你们正在倾向现场体验。你们实际上新成立了一个现场业务子公司

I'll never join a rut club. Okay. So you're seeing me so all of this is is sort of whether that post pandemic changed. What are you and you're leaning into live experiences. You've actually got a new live subsidiary.

能谈谈这个吗？是的

Can you talk about that? Yes.

所以我们最近宣布成立了一家名为Brighthouse的全资子公司。这是我们通过与深受喜爱的IP合作创造沉浸式体验，从而改变娱乐行业的重要一步。这种做法的独特优势在于，它既是Eventbrite内部的一家初创企业，又具备我们在现场体验领域所积累的规模优势。我们公司已成立近二十年，一直致力于让现场活动更加普及化。

So we recently announced the formation of a wholly owned subsidiary called Brighthouse. And this is our step into transforming entertainment by partnering with beloved IP to create immersive experiences. You know, the unique benefit of this is that it's a startup within Eventbrite but has the scale of what we know around live experiences. Our company has been around for almost two decades. We've been in the business of democratizing live events.

凭借历史上超过400万创作者和20亿张门票的销售经验，我们深知如何举办出色的活动，也了解消费者的需求所在。因此，我们希望将Brighthouse创始人兼CEO Zoe Tan在沉浸式体验行业十五年的专业经验，与Eventbrite的平台优势以及对创作者和消费者的连接能力相结合，共同为城市带来更优质的活动策划，并真正以创新思维思考如何将线上或媒体相关的热情转化为能够激发情感与连接的线下体验。

And with over 4,000,000 creators and 2,000,000,000 tickets sold in our history, We know what it takes to put on a great event, and we know what consumers are looking for. So we're hoping to pair the expertise of Zoe Tan, who is the founder and CEO of Brighthouse and has been in the immersive experiences industry for fifteen years with the experience of Eventbrite and our connection to creators and consumers and work together to bring better event programming to cities and, you know, really think creatively about how we can transition those online or media related passions into offline experiences that stoke passion and connection.

最终，Netflix通过《布里奇顿》所实现的模式。我是不是有点像那种

And ultimately, What Netflix is doing with Bridgerton. Am I like That's

你在你在你在附近。

a you're in you're in the you're in the neighborhood.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。是的。我认为Eventbrite的独特之处在于我们对中端市场也有深入了解。所以我真的认为这种利基兴趣以及我之前谈到的消费者真正想要连接的东西，正好符合我们的专长领域，而且我们能够规模化且盈利地做到这一点。更多内容敬请期待。

Yes. Yes. And I think Eventbrite, what's unique about us is that we have a line on on what happens in the mid market too. So I really think that type of niche interest and what I was talking about consumers really wanting to connect with is right in line with our wheelhouse, and we're able to do this at scale and profitably. So more to come.

再次强调，这虽然是一家初创公司，但我对通过技术连接内容、改善人们生活并创造难忘记忆的方式感到非常兴奋，我认为这正是人类所追求的。

Again, it's a startup, but I'm really excited about bridging content to technology in ways that make people's lives better and also give us an opportunity to create indelible memories, which I think that's what, you know, humans are seeking.

你们的商业模式大致是怎样的？

What is the business model broadly for you around it?

是的。所以，我们将Brighthouse视为Eventbrite平台上的强大创作者。我们不仅从票务和消费者趋势数据中受益，了解人们想去哪里，我们还在创作内容。我们有不同的方式来实现这些内容，目前还太早确定我们会选择哪个方向。

Yeah. So, I mean, we think about Brighthouse as a power creator on the Eventbrite platform. So not only do we benefit from the data that we have in terms of ticketing and consumer trends of where people wanna go, but we also are creating the content. We have different ways of thinking about how we'll bring that content to life. And it's a little bit too early to tell which which direction we'll take.

但再次强调，我们正在关注IP相关的内容，也就是那些有天然粉丝基础的东西，以及我们自己的原创创作。我们最近在布鲁克林举办了一场'奶酪狂欢派对'，非常受欢迎。通过数据挖掘和我们所谓的'文化点滴'，我们发现了两种人们热衷的事物，并将它们融合在一起实现，这给了我们一个明确的信号：人们渴望参加这类活动。

But again, we're looking at IP related content, you know, things that have natural built in fandoms as well as our own proprietary creation. We recently hosted a Cheese Rave in Brooklyn, which was massively popular. And it brought together two passions that we saw through our data mining and our, what we call, culture drops, which are the ways in which we can see what people wanna do and bringing that to life. And we mashed them up together and brought it to life, which gave us a really clear signal that people want to be at these types of events.

所以让我们暂时想象一下信息体验、粉丝体验的场景。对吧？不知道为什么你就像在交易迷因币一样。你知道吗？是的。

So if let's let's for a second imagine an information experience fan experience. Right? Don't know why you're you're like, you're trading meme coins. You know? Yeah.

我的意思是，当你交易时，你的一举一动都被Sam Lesson记录在案。你知道，就像有个拍照亭那样。这是可能发生的。

I mean, when you're trading you're you're you're being documented by Sam Lesson in your every move. You know, there's like a photo booth. That can happen.

拍照亭应该不错。

Photo booth should be good.

还有个悄悄话亭，你可以在那里低声透露你听说的行业内幕。

There's like a whisper booth where you're whispering what you've heard about the industry.

一个匿名举报亭。配上超棒的周边礼品。我觉得这个想法很棒。然后在我们周末版块，根据读者调查——当然这个数据会受回应者偏差影响——超过50%，我相信有54%回应我们调查的信息读者正在使用Ozempic。这不是很惊人吗？

An anonymous tips booth. In great swag. I think that I think this is great. And then as we our weekend section, we given that of the our reader survey, which again is skewed by the people who respond, had more than 50%, I believe 54% of information readers who responded to our survey are on Ozempic. So isn't that stunning?

我的意思是，我得想想这方面的体验设计，但那确实很惊人。我可能会等到口服药版本上市后再把它融入你的沉浸式体验。这样可能会更方便一些。

I mean, I'd have to think about the experiential element there, but that that is stunning. I'd maybe wait until the pill form is available until you bring it into your immersive experience. Might might make it a little bit easier.

是的。当然。我们必须...我们展示的是付费人群、医生，你知道的。总之，虽然我说得有点玩笑，但我觉得你的观点是，品牌和数字品牌需要思考这些沉浸式体验，对吧？

Yeah. Of course. Have to get We're showing paying people, doctors, you know, or anyway. Well, that but I think I mean, it's a silly thing I'm saying, but I think your point, right, is that brands and digital brands are and need to be thinking about those immersive experiences?

天哪。我们刚刚进行了一项调查，结果显示95%。所以可以说，就Z世代而言，他们都希望在现实生活中与自己喜爱的事物建立联系。他们渴望这种联系。品牌正寻求通过这些体验与消费者建立联系并塑造自己的身份。

Oh my gosh. We we just ran a a survey that said 95%. So let's just say all for for purposes of of Gen Z want to connect with the things that they love in real life. They're begging for it. Brands are looking to create their connection with consumers and build their identity through these experiences.

我必须说，杰斯，你知道，你在秋季女性活动上所做的一切非常具有沉浸感。

And I have to say, Jess, you know, what you do with the fall women's event is incredibly immersive.

所以你

So you're

已经差不多成功一半了。

already like halfway there.

是的。而且我们应该说，茱莉亚一直是这个活动的老朋友和过去的主持人，我们对今年十月的活动感到非常兴奋。所以

Yes. And we should say Julia has been a great friend of the event and moderator in the past, and we're excited for October this year. So

那是个

That's a

很棒的活动。好的。在我让你离开之前，让我们简单谈谈旧金山。你热爱旧金山。你在这里住了很长时间，你知道，沉浸在这种文化中。

great event. Okay. Well, before I let you go, let's talk about San Francisco for a second. You love San Francisco. You lived here a long time, you know, immersed in the culture.

当城市外的人们看到时，他们会问，发生了什么？你知道，旧金山回来了吗？从你的视角和那些自下而上的活动数据来看，旧金山正在发生什么

When when people outside of the city, they're like, what's going on? You know, is San Francisco back From your vantage point and from having that bottoms up event data, what's going I on in San

我的意思是，在2024年，旧金山举办了四倍半的活动。仅Eventbrite上我们就看到超过400万旧金山居民参加了活动。我认为这表明人们正在走出去，正在聚集。我对此非常乐观，并且很高兴能在这方面担任领导角色，坚持这一乐观观点。

Mean, in 2024, San Francisco gathered four and a half times. So we saw over 4,000,000 San Francisco residents attend events on Eventbrite alone. I think that's showing that people are getting out. They're gathering. I'm gonna be incredibly bullish on this and happy to to take the helm here on this on this bullish view.

如果投票反对旧金山的复兴，那将是极其短视甚至可能是愚蠢的，就你认为实际会发生的事情而言。

It would be incredibly shortsighted and potentially idiotic to vote against San Francisco coming back in terms of what you think is actually gonna happen.

我们正在回归。我的意思是，我感觉我们已经回来了。

What we're coming back. I mean, like, I feel like we're back.

我认为，嗯，我持更保守的观点，我们的回归将会比以往任何时候都更好。我同意。结合硅谷，简单来说，就是世界的创新之都。这不是排他性的说法，只是说这里的人才和创新密度是无与伦比的，再加上经历了艰难时期但没有离开、没有弃船、留在这里的居民的强烈参与。

I think I well, I'm I'm taking more of a conservative view that our back is going to be better than ever. I agree. The combination of, you know, Silicon Valley just simply put being the innovation capital of the world. And that's that's not an exclusive statement. That's just saying that density of talent and innovation here is unparalleled, coupled with strong engagement from residents who have lived through the tough time, didn't leave, didn't abandon ship, stayed here.

保持参与。并且正在一块一块地重建这个街区，这座城市。这是一个强大的组合。然后你得到了围绕这一切的包装，这已经酝酿多年，但有一些相当重大的全球体育和娱乐活动即将到来。这绝对是押注旧金山的时候。

Stayed engaged. And are rebuilding this block this city block by block. Like that is a potent combination. And then you get the wrapper around that, which, you know, has been in the works for years, but some pretty major global events coming through in sports and entertainment. Like, this is this is absolutely a time to bet on on San Francisco.

是的。我知道。我的意思是，我又要暴露我的网球粉丝身份了，但我对一周后即将开始的拉沃尔杯非常兴奋。很棒的网球锦标赛。我们将在Chase中心迎来卡洛斯·阿尔卡拉斯。

Yeah. I know. I mean, I'll be belying once again my tennis fandom, but I'm very excited for the Labor Cup just to be starting in a week. Amazing tennis tournament. We'll have Carlos Alcaraz in the Chase Center.

太兴奋了。说到被称为超级碗的比赛也要来了。还有世界杯。还有世界杯。说实话，我对世界杯有点搞不清楚，因为它无处不在。

So excited. To mention about being called the Super Bowl coming as well. So And the World Cup. And the World Cup. I get confused about the World Cup, to be honest, because it's everywhere.

对吧？我不

Right? I don't

嗯，不过是的。但我们是关键城市之一，这很重要。明白了。

Well, but yeah. But we're one of the key cities, which is huge. Got it.

好的。是的。在我们结束之前，让我们简单聊聊超级碗，因为你也在发布关于Z世代文化的内容，还有泰勒·斯威夫特。我是活动专家。你认为泰勒·斯威夫特会在2026年2月的湾区超级碗上表演吗？

Okay. Yeah. Before we wrap, let's talk about the Super Bowl for a second because, you are also you have your posts on Gen Z culture, everything, and Taylor Swift. I am an event expert. Do you think Taylor Swift will be playing in the Bay Area Super Bowl February 2026?

嗯，我住在一个满是Swifties（泰勒粉丝）的房子里。我有四个女儿。

Well, I live in a house full of Swifties. I have four daughters.

你也是，而且你的两个女儿还太小，不算是Swifties。

You are also and two of your daughters are too young to be Swifties.

但是，嗯，不。她们是自动成为粉丝的。但我确实认为，你知道，如果拉斯维加斯对此开赌盘，斯威夫特在超级碗60上表演基本上赔率是差不多的。我觉得我会押她会表演。但我告诉你，如果你是个爱赌的人，我不确定你会把所有赌注都押在“会”上。

But Well, no. They're they're automatic. But I do think that, you know, if Vegas had a line on it, they Swift at the Super Bowl sixty is basically it's basically even money. I think that I I would I would push it over. And I'm gonna tell you, if you if you're a betting person, I don't know that you're putting it all on yes.

好的。但我确实要给你三个非常内部的线索，说明为什么我相信这件事绝对会发生。你已经听到我对旧金山有多看好了，我们就以此作为基准。但我相信你听完了整个播客，New Heights播客，整整两小时。

Okay. But I do think I'm gonna give you three very insider clues as to why I believe it's absolutely happening. Now you already heard how bullish I am in San So let's use that as the baseline. But I'm sure you listened to the entire podcast, the New Heights podcast, all two hours of it.

不，不。我听了。我...听了三天才听完，但我确实听完了。

No. No. I did. I oh, went for three days, but I did.

好的，好的。是的。所以有三个信号。第一个，酸面包。

Okay. Okay. Yeah. So there were three signals. The first, sourdough.

酸面包基本上是泰勒的新秘密武器。她说她60%的时间都在想面包。你觉得那只是个随机数据吗？不。因为这是超级碗第六十届。

Sourdough is basically Taylor's new secret And love she said she thinks about bread 60% of the time. Do you think that was just a random stat? No. Because this is Super Bowl sixty.

好吧。

Okay.

而旧金山的吉祥物是酸面包鲑鱼。

And San Francisco's mascot is sourdough salmon.

是的。

Yeah.

好的。所以有这个。这是第一点。

Okay. So there's that. That's one.

很清楚。

That's clear.

第二点。这一点非常清楚。第二点，记得泰勒感谢特拉维斯，哦不对。抱歉，是感谢杰森尖叫了47秒。

Two. That's very clear. Two, remember Taylor thanking Travis for oh, no. Sorry. Jason for screaming for forty seven seconds.

哦。不，我不记得这个，因为我听到人们...我当时只是在看。但确实是的。

Oh. No, I don't remember that because I heard people I was just watching it. But yes.

好吧。嗯，Swifties知道47也不是一个错误或巧合，因为她的第47场Eras巡演是在李维斯体育场。

Okay. Well, the Swifties know that forty seven is not also a mistake or an accident because her forty seventh Eris tour show was at Levi's Stadium.

天啊。好吧。我要给你

Oh my god. Okay. I'm gonna give you

最后一点，其实你甚至不需要了，因为我们基本上...我们基本上已经为粉丝们铺就了一条通往超级碗的面包屑线索。最后一点是，这很可能是特拉维斯的最后一个赛季，第十三个赛季。现在，无法确定他是否会参加比赛。但我认为NFL的Swiftie时代加上这个时刻的商业价值，实在太好了，不容错过。所以我要押注她会来，绝对会来旧金山。

a final one just you don't even need it because we're basically we're basically we've basically created a fan breadcrumb trail to the to sour to the Super Bowl. The final one is that this is likely Travis's last season, thirteenth season. Now, there's no telling whether or not he'll be playing at it. But I think the combination of the NFL era of swiftiness plus the commercial value of this moment is too good to pass up. And so I'm gonna take the over on this and say, absolutely, she's coming to San Francisco.

就是这样。所以说到旧金山的活动场景，天啊，我差点忘了明年10月1日本森·布恩的演唱会。我只是不太常出门。但所有这些事情之间，有这么多活动在发生，我认为这很能说明当下活动的活跃程度。

There you go. So if the San Francisco scene, oh my gosh, I forgot the Benson Boone concert next October 1. I'm just doesn't get out much. The fact that between all of these things, there's so much happening. I think is a I think is a telling sign about events in this moment.

那么，朱莉娅，感谢你一如既往地带领我们了解流行文化和公开市场的动态。我们会继续关注，特别是你们新业务的进展。再次感谢你参加我们的节目。

So well, Julia, thank you for for being our guide through the pop culture and the public markets as always. We will be watching and and, seeing what you guys do, especially with the new business. So thank you again for joining us.

很高兴见到你。

Great to see you.

刚才与我们对话的是Eventbrite首席执行官朱莉娅·哈茨和我们的主编杰西卡·莱森。好的，今天的节目就到这里。提醒大家，我们每周一到周五太平洋时间上午10点，东部时间下午1点在此直播。我要感谢亚马逊云服务作为本次节目的主要赞助商，也感谢各位的收看。

That was Eventbrite CEO, Julia Hartz, with our editor in chief Jessica Lesson. Okay. Well, that does it for today's show. A reminder that we are live on this stream Monday through Friday at 10AM Pacific, 1PM Eastern. I wanna thank Amazon Web Services who is our presenting sponsor for this production, and I wanna thank you for tuning in.

我们非常珍视大家的观看。我已经开始期待明天的节目了。那么至此，暂时告别，下次再见。

We really do appreciate your viewership. I'm already excited for our next show tomorrow. And so until then, bye bye for now.