习近平缺席：中国对委内瑞拉反应的启示

《经济学人》。

The Economist.

你好，欢迎收听《经济学人》的《智识》节目。

Hello, and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist.

我是杰森·帕尔默。

I'm Jason Palmer.

我是罗斯·布洛尔。

And I'm Rosie Bloor.

每个工作日，我们都会为您带来塑造您世界的事件的全新视角。

Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

送你一点经济学术语。

A little bit of economics lingo for you.

过度特权。

Exorbitant privilege.

当一个国家的货币成为其他国家储蓄和交易的货币时，该国所获得的益处。

It's the benefit that a country gets when its currency is what other countries save and deal in.

作为我们‘未来世界’系列的一部分，我们探讨了美国的特权在2020年可能面临的威胁。

As part of our world ahead series, we look at how America's privilege may be in danger in 2020

过去，精致的手袋是财富与时尚品味的终极象征，人们炫耀它们，以此展示自己的富裕与前卫，并为奢侈品牌做活广告。

And fancy handbags used to be the very definition of a desirable good, cradled for all to see how wealthy and fashion forward you were and a walking advert for the luxury brand.

如今，消费者开始质疑它们的价值。

Now shoppers are questioning their worth.

设计师们是否在手袋中忽略了工艺？

Have designers left the craft out of their bags?

但首先，人们投入了大量关注于美国精心策划的行动细节——试图逮捕委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗，并促成他意外前往美国的行程。

But first, So much attention has been spent on the fine detail of the American mission to snatch Venezuela's president Nicolas Maduro and his unplanned trip to The US.

但让我们稍微回溯一下时间，看看他在与美国特种部队会面前几小时所会见的最后一批外国访客：由中国国家主席习近平的拉丁美洲特别代表率领的一群高级中国外交官。

But let's go back in time just a tiny bit to the last foreign visitors he met with just hours before he met with American special forces, a delegation of senior Chinese diplomats led by president Xi Jinping's special envoy for Latin America.

会面后，马杜罗先生在Instagram上发文。

Afterwards, mister Maduro took to Instagram.

中国与委内瑞拉团结一致，他写道。

China and Venezuela united, he wrote.

几天后，这种联盟可能并不像委内瑞拉或中国在全球的其他盟友所想象的那样。

Fast forward a couple of days, and that union maybe doesn't look like Venezuela or China's other pals around the world thought it did.

中国是委内瑞拉在亚洲最重要的盟友。

China is Venezuela's most important ally in Asia.

它谴责了这次行动。

It is condemned the operation.

它要求释放马杜罗。

It is called for Maduro's release.

亚伦·康诺利是我们亚洲外交编辑。

Aaron Connolly is our Asia diplomatic editor.

它在委内瑞拉有一些重要的基础设施投资，但中国似乎并不愿意超越口头支持。

It has some important infrastructure investments in Venezuela, but China doesn't appear to be willing to go beyond rhetorical support.

那么，让我们谈谈最初将中国和委内瑞拉联系在一起的是什么。

Well, let's talk about what it is that links China and Venezuela in in the first place.

中国对委内瑞拉至关重要，如果没有中国的支持，它在过去几十年里根本无法抵抗美国的压力。

China is absolutely important to Venezuela, and it would not have been able to resist American pressure over the last couple of decades without Chinese support.

中国投资委内瑞拉，是为了扩大其在拉丁美洲的影响力。

China invested in Venezuela as part of its effort to expand its own influence in Latin America.

它是委内瑞拉最大的债权人。

It's Venezuela's largest creditor.

它是委内瑞拉石油的最大买家。

It's the largest buyer of Venezuelan oil.

但委内瑞拉对中国来说并不那么重要。

But Venezuela is not that important to China.

中国原本打算将委内瑞拉作为其在拉丁美洲影响力的桥头堡，因此在过去二十年里向该国投入了大量资金。

It was meant to be a beachhead of Chinese influence in Latin America, and that's why they invested so much money in the country over those two decades.

但中国的主要利益仍在亚洲。

But China's primary interests are still in Asia.

就这些利益而言，委内瑞拉的丧失对北京的决策影响不大。

And as far as those interests go, the loss of Venezuela won't affect thinking of Beijing that much.

那么更广泛地说，整个地区呢？

And what about the region more broadly?

其他亚洲国家对委内瑞拉发生的事情有何反应？

What have other Asian countries' responses been to what's happened in Venezuela?

嗯，朝鲜和中国一样，谴责了美国的行动。

Well, North Korea, like China, has condemned The United States' actions.

其他国家则更加谨慎，大致可以分为两类。

Other countries have been a lot more cautious, and they basically fall into two buckets.

一些美国的盟友甚至根本没有提及这一局势。

American allies, in some cases, haven't even really addressed the situation at all.

日本发布了一份声明，几乎完全集中在向被困在委内瑞拉的日本公民提供领事援助上。

Japan released a statement that was almost entirely focused on the consular assistance that it was offering to provide Japanese citizens who were stuck in Venezuela.

其他美国盟友的回应也十分平淡。

And other American allies responded with pretty tepid statements.

他们非常担心与美国的关系。

They're very worried about their relationship with The United States.

尽管这些国家中的一些确实关心《联合国宪章》第二条及其对领土完整性的保护，防止入侵等行为，但目前他们更关注与美国的关系。

And while some of these states really do care about article two of the UN Charter and its protections for territorial integrity, preventing things like invasions, They're more concerned about the relationship with The United States right now.

因此，这推动了它们的反应。

And so that's driving their response.

然后，那些不是美国盟友的国家，你可能会认为它们更愿意对这一行动发声。

And then other countries that are not American allies, you might think that they'd be more willing to speak out against this action.

马来西亚在这方面比较接近，它有这样做的传统。

And Malaysia comes close, and it has a tradition of doing this.

但其他有传统反对美国对全球南方国家采取行动的国家，比如印度尼西亚，却实际上收敛了立场。

But other countries that have a tradition of speaking out against American actions, against governments in the global South, like Indonesia, have really kind of pulled in their horns.

它们似乎不愿意在当前所有国家都担心美国关税及其对经济影响的时候谴责美国。

They don't seem to be willing to condemn America at a time when they're all worried about American tariffs and what kind of effect that would have on their economies.

但美国在委内瑞拉的所作所为，在多大程度上为中国思考收复台湾问题树立了先例？

But what about the degree to which what America did in Venezuela sets a precedent for China in its thinking about retaking Taiwan?

我不这么认为。

I I don't think it does.

中国认为台湾问题是内部事务。

China thinks about Taiwan as an internal matter.

所以，国际法从来不是阻止中国对台湾采取行动的因素。

So international law was never one of the things that was holding back China from attempting an operation against Taiwan.

另一点是，这与中国的台湾行动计划截然不同。

The other thing is this is a very different operation from what China intends to do to Taiwan.

中国想要的是整个岛屿，而不仅仅是一个领导人。

It wants the whole island, not just a single leader.

而阻止中国实施此类行动的主要因素，是中国担心美国会介入阻止它。

And the main thing protecting Taiwan from that kind of operation is China's fear that America would intervene to prevent it.

因此，真正阻止中国攻击台湾的，是美国的军事力量。

And so it's really American military power that is preventing China from executing an attack on Taiwan.

但关于中国在这里获得一种宣传上的胜利呢？

But what about the notion of a a kind of propaganda win for China here?

如果美国严重扭曲了国际秩序，不再是它所宣称的自由灯塔，等等？

If America is gravely bending the international order not being the leading light of freedom that it claims to be and so on?

至少，这在目前对中国的来说无疑是一次巨大的胜利。

Surely that, at least, is a big win for China at this point.

当然，中国会说，这证明了他们一直以来对美国的指控——美国并非国际秩序的维护者，也没有它声称的那么道德。

Of course, China will say that this proves what they've been saying all along about America, that it's not an upholder of international order, and that it's not as moral as it says.

但我认为，对中国而言，这里更重要的机会是：如果你是美国，要控制委内瑞拉将非常困难。

But I think the more important opportunity here for China, it's gonna be very difficult to control Venezuela if you're The United States.

在未来几个月到几年内，要实现委内瑞拉的稳定将极其困难。

It's gonna be very difficult to achieve an outcome in which Venezuela is stable in the next several months to years.

而中国现在真正关心的是确保委内瑞拉不会稳定下来。

And China has a real interest in making sure now that Venezuela isn't stable.

这可能会给美国在其自己的半球带来严重问题。

It could really cause a problem for America in its own hemisphere.

我们一直都在讨论中国可能从中获得什么，或者它对此的感受。

We've been talking this whole time about what China may or may not get out of this, how it feels about this.

那委内瑞拉呢？它可能原本期待中国前来救援？

What about Venezuela, which might have expected China to to come to its rescue?

是的。

Yeah.

嗯，在这方面，这确实展现了中国在全球范围内实力和影响力的局限。

Well, you know, in that respect, this really does show the limits of China's muscle and power around the world.

委内瑞拉很可能期待中国提供远不止口头支持和声明的更多援助。

It may very well have expected a lot more support from China than just rhetorical support and statements.

但中国要么没有能力，要么不愿意提供这样的支持。

And China wasn't able or was unwilling to provide that.

因此，如果你是世界上其他中国的盟友或朋友，你可能会思考，你与中国的关系究竟能为你提供多少实际支持。

And so if you're another Chinese ally or friend around the world, you might be thinking about just how much support your friendship with China will actually provide you.

但这种结果——即揭示出中国在国际事务中的无力——是否实际上正是美国政府在委内瑞拉行动中的意图之一呢？

But what are the chances that outcome, that revealing of weakness in terms of China's international entanglement was actually part of the administration's intent in what it did in Venezuela?

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

Absolutely.

我知道，马可·卢比奥上周末就说过类似的话。

And, know, I think Marco Rubio said as much over the weekend.

这还要追溯到美国在十二月初发布的国家安全战略，其中明确表示决心运用美国力量控制西半球的资源。

And and this goes back to the national security strategy that The United States released in early December, in which it said that it was determined to assert American power to control resources in the Western Hemisphere.

因此，他们很可能想拿委内瑞拉做个例子。

And so they probably do want to make an example of Venezuela.

他们能否成功，还有待观察。

Whether they can do that or not still remains to be seen.

但如果你是拉丁美洲国家，正在考虑接受中国对本国能源基础设施的投资，你可能会根据1月3日发生的事情，重新评估这种关系的潜在风险。

But if you are a Latin American country that is thinking about accepting Chinese investment in your energy infrastructure, you may think about potential downsides of that relationship based on what happened on January 3.

非常感谢你的参与。

Thanks very much for joining

欢迎你，亚伦。

us, Aaron.

谢谢，杰森。

Thanks, Jason.

很高兴和你交谈。

Nice to talk to you.

2025年，美元兑其他富裕国家货币贬值了10%。

In the 2025, the value of the dollar fell by 10% against other rich world currencies.

美元指数已跌至三年来的最低点。

The US dollar index has dropped to a three year low.

这是自1973年以来最糟糕的年初表现，而今天它又进一步走弱。

Its worst start to the year since 1973 and today it's weaker again.

通常情况下，美元疲软对发展中国家是好消息。

Normally, a weak dollar is good news for developing countries.

因为它们比富裕国家借入更多美元，美元贬值意味着它们的债务大幅减少。

Because they borrow more in dollars than wealthier places do, a cheap dollar means their debts are slashed.

但这一次，美元的下跌可能意味着不同的情况。

This time though, the dollar's decline could mean something different.

作为我们《世界展望》系列的一部分，我们的国际经济记者克里和里士满·琼斯探讨了世界储备货币是否面临威胁。

As part of our World Ahead series, our international economics correspondent Kerry and Richmond Jones asks whether the world's reserve currency is under threat.

去年，美元大幅走弱。

The dollar became much weaker last year.

美元实际上相对于世界其他货币变得更便宜了，你可能会认为这对全球各地的小型发展中国家来说是好事。

It effectively got cheaper in relation to the rest of the world's currencies, and you'd think that this would be a good thing for small developing countries all around the world.

如果你以美元购买原材料，或以美元借款，那么美元贬值显然是好消息。

If you buy materials in dollars, if you borrow in dollars, then surely the dollar getting cheaper is good news.

但你会告诉我，这其实是坏消息。

And yet you're gonna tell me it's bad news.

绝对是坏消息。

Absolutely bad news.

这是坏消息，因为美元贬值是因为唐纳德·特朗普的贸易战。

And it's bad news because the dollar fell because of Donald Trump's trade war.

当时的想法是，如果美国实施了这么多关税，那么使用美元进行贸易的人就会减少，因此美元变得便宜了。

The thinking was if America has all these tariffs going on, then fewer people are going to trade in dollars, so the dollar got cheaper.

但贸易战的另一个后果是，发展中国家的风险溢价——即这些国家因比发达国家风险更高而需支付的额外借贷成本——也急剧上升。

But another consequence of the trade war is that the risk premia on developing countries, so that's the extra cost that developing countries pay to borrow because they're more risky than rich countries, that also shot up.

因为突然之间，这些贫穷国家赚取收入的方式——即对美国的出口——突然变得不确定了。

Because all of a sudden, the way in which these poor countries made money, so exports to The US, suddenly looked uncertain.

因此，去年实际上发生的情况是，尽管美元走弱，发展中国家借款美元的成本却上升了。

And so, actually, what happened last year was even though the dollar got weaker, the cost of borrowing in dollars for developing countries rose.

因此，美元价值因特朗普的关税而下降。

So the value of the dollar fell because of Trump's tariffs.

这显然是一个巨大的初始冲击。

That was obviously a big initial shock.

由于关税的影响，美元汇率是否一直保持低位？

Has it stayed low because of the effect of the tariffs?

特朗普在这一年中的关税实际上远没有他承诺的那么严重。

Donald Trump's tariffs throughout the course of the year have actually been nowhere near as bad as he promised.

特朗普曾承诺征收约30%的关税，即进口和出口需额外支付的费用。

Trump promised about a 30% tariff rate, which is how much extra you'd pay to import and export.

而实际上，我们最终的税率大约在18%左右，期间他反复改变主意，政策也多次调整。

And actually, we've landed somewhere around 18% with a lot of chopping and changing as he changes his mind.

但非常有趣的是，美元在这一消息公布后下跌，而当实际情况比预期更好时，美元却并未回升。

But really interestingly, the dollar fell when this was announced and then hasn't recovered when the situation has been better than expected.

所以它仍然低于2025年的水平。

So it's still below its value at the 2025.

这是因为特朗普似乎对市场对美元的信心造成了长期损害。

And that's because Trump seems to have done some longer term damage to erode the market's confidence in the dollar.

那么这意味着各国现在在使用其他货币吗？

So does that mean that countries are now using other currencies?

这意味着各国确实在使用其他货币。

It does mean that countries are using other currencies.

而这很大程度上是因为它们越来越不向美国出口了。

And a lot of that is actually to do with the fact that increasingly, they're not really exporting to America.

因此，在2025年的前六个月，中国对非洲的出口增长了四分之一，对东南亚的出口增长了五分之一。

So in the first six months of 2025, China's exports to Africa rose a quarter, and its exports to Southeast Asia rose by a fifth.

中国非常不愿意以美元进行贸易。

China's very keen not to trade in dollars.

它尽可能尝试以人民币进行交易，欧洲也是如此，也希望以欧元进行贸易。

It tries to trade when it can in yuan, and it's the same with Europe, wants to trade in euros.

因此，我们看到，随着贸易萎缩，发展中国家对美元的热情也在下降。

And so what we've seen is as trade has contracted, so too have developing countries' enthusiasm for the dollar.

如果人们不再使用美元，这有什么关系呢？

Why does it matter if people aren't using the dollar?

半个世纪以来，世界主要用美元进行贸易，这也意味着各国以美元借贷，因此大量外国实体购买美国国债作为安全资产，以便在紧急情况下出售以换取美元。

For half a century, mostly, the world has traded in dollars, and that has also meant that it's borrowed in dollars, which means that lots and lots of foreign entities buy US Treasury bonds as their safe asset that they can sell in an emergency to get dollars.

这对美国来说真的、真的、真的非常好。

That's really, really, really good for America.

这被称为‘过度特权’，因为它意味着美国可以比任何其他国家以更低的成本发行债务。

It's called the exorbitant privilege because it means that it can sell its debt much cheaper than any other country.

因此，美国实际上可以借更多的钱。

So effectively, America can borrow more.

如果美元失去其霸主地位，理论上，另一个国家可能获得这种好处。

If the dollar gets knocked off its crown, theoretically, another country could get that benefit.

那么，谁将从中受益呢？

So who stands to gain from this?

也许是欧洲，也许是中國，甚至可能是日本。

Perhaps Europe or perhaps China or perhaps even Japan.

中國可能是最大的受益者。

China could be the biggest beneficiary.

中國的中央銀行正在努力建立一個繞過美元的大規模數字支付系統，同時還有沙特阿拉伯、南非和印度等其他許多大型新興市場，這意味著可能會形成一個由多個國家組成的網絡，這些國家有意繞過美元，使用人民幣、盧布或其他貨幣。

Its central bank is trying to build a big digital payment system circumventing the dollar, along with lots of other big emerging markets like Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and India, which means that you could get a network of countries all plugged into this system that purposefully circumvents the dollar and uses yuan or rubles or another currency.

俄羅斯也有許多理由繞過美元。

Russia as well has a lot of reasons to circumvent the dollar.

因此，它的Mir數字支付系統避開了歐洲和美國信用卡公司使用的所有美元化系統。

So its Mer digital payment system avoids all of the dollarized systems that credit and debit card companies use in Europe and in America.

這確實很有幫助，因為它意味著俄羅斯企業可以與世界其他地區進行更多貿易，而無需面臨美國的制裁。

And that really helps because it means that Russian businesses can trade far more with the world without running into American sanctions.

加密貨幣是否也可能在遠離美元的轉變中發揮作用？

Might crypto also play a part in the shift away from the dollar?

當然。

Absolutely.

人们经常谈论加密货币及其使用范围的扩大。

People talk a lot about cryptocurrency and its use expanding.

如果你是加密货币的怀疑者——《经济学人》周围就有许多这样的人——你的回应会是：但相对于全球金融市场上每天以货币进行的巨额交易，加密货币的规模简直微不足道。

And then if you're a crypto naysayer, of which there are many around The Economist, your reply will be, oh, but the amounts are absolutely tiny relative to the sheer volume that is transacted every day on global financial markets with currencies.

但你真的需要思考：加密货币是试图取代全球金融体系，还是实际上，即使它只吸纳了极小部分交易，也能产生巨大影响。

But really, you've got to think about whether crypto is trying to replace the global financial system or whether, actually, crypto can be incredibly impactful when it just absorbs a tiny amount of those transactions.

而正是在犯罪和制裁这类问题上，加密货币显得特别有用。

And that's where things like crime and sanctions really come in useful.

受到国际刑事法律或美国制裁影响的交易量，相对于全球经济总量来说微乎其微。

The amount of transactions that would be touched by international criminal legislation or by American sanctions are tiny relative to the global economy.

因此，其中大部分交易本就可以被加密货币吸收。

So most of them could already be absorbed by crypto.

那么，凯里翁，美元的时代结束了吗？

So, Kerrion, has the dollar had its day?

到2025年，企业与国家脱离美元的速度比以往任何一年都快，而且这种趋势很可能持续下去。

In 2025, firms and countries left the dollar behind faster than they have in previous years, and likely that is going to continue.

但在此背景下，我们必须牢记美元实际上有多么主导。

But against that backdrop, we have to keep in mind just how dominant it really is.

因此，全球各国央行的外汇储备中有60%是美元，90%的外汇交易都是以美元进行的。

So 60% of foreign reserves in central banks across the world are dollarized, 90% of foreign exchange transactions are in dollars.

这种情况下，无论是上海还是纽约的银行，几乎没有动力去放弃美元，因为你只是在不同货币之间转换，而你希望选择最简单、最快捷的方式。

And that's the kind of thing that there's really very little incentive for any bank, whether it's in Shanghai or in New York, to move away from because you're just changing between currencies and you want the easiest, fastest thing to do that.

尽管我们之前讨论了这么多，尽管有唐纳德·特朗普，尽管出现了百年来最高的关税，但超过一半的贸易仍然以美元计价。

And more than half of trade as well, despite everything we've been talking about, despite Donald Trump, despite the highest tariffs in a hundred years, is still denominated in dollars.

其中大部分交易发生在距离美国极其遥远的国家之间。

And most of that will be transactions between countries far, far, far away from America.

美元将极难被取代，但它不再像过去那样看似不可撼动。

The dollar is gonna be incredibly hard to dislodge, but it's no longer as impossible as it once seemed.

凯里昂，非常感谢你。

Kerian, thank you very much.

非常感谢你邀请我。

Thank you so much for having me.

如果你花时间观看在线时尚或奢侈品相关的视频，很快就会遇到一种奇特的子类型视频：毁坏奢侈品包。

If you spend any time watching videos about fashion or luxury goods online, one kind of weird subgenre of videos that will come up almost immediately is destroying luxury bags.

我花费了超过一百万美元的时间和金钱，切割奢侈品包，以揭露这个行业最大的秘密。

I spent over $1,000,000 in time and money cutting up luxury bags to expose industry's biggest secret.

希拉·阿维翁娜为《经济学人》撰稿。

Shira Avionna writes for The Economist.

这个领域最受欢迎的账号之一是一个叫坦纳·莱瑟斯坦的人，这不是他的真名。

One of the most popular accounts in this genre is this guy called Tanner Leatherstein, not his real name.

皮革质量一般。

The leather was mediocre.

做工是工厂制造的。

Construction was factory made.

然而，价格却是其他优质品牌的五倍。

Yet, the prices were five times higher than the other quality brands.

他的每个视频都以他用刀轻轻抚摸奢侈品包开始，然后逐步拆解，检查皮革质量、做工、搭扣等等。

And each of his videos starts with him kind of caressing a luxury bag with a knife and then proceeding to dismantle it whole, look at the quality of the leather, the finishings, the clasp, and so on and so forth.

另一个在这一类别中非常火爆的视频，观看次数超过300万次，展示了一位女性背着一款Goyard品牌的蓝色托特包，结果蓝色颜料蹭到了她的白衬衫上。

Another super viral video in this vein, which has been seen over 3,000,000 times, shows a woman carrying around this blue tote bag from the brand Goyard and the blue paint rubbing off on her white shirt.

你可以在评论中看到有人表示：如果你花了数千美元买这个包，你应该去维修它。

And you can read in the comments people saying, if you paid thousands of dollars for this bag, you should get it repaired.

还有其他人回应说：如果你花了数千美元买这个包，就不应该需要去维修它。

And other people responding, well, if you paid thousands of dollars for this bag, you shouldn't have to get it repaired.

这些视频的目的是测试奢侈品包是否真的物有所值，以及它们是否配得上其作为工艺巅峰典范的形象。

And the point of these videos is to kind of test whether or not luxury bags are really worth their price and whether or not they measure up to the image that they're the ultimate example of craftsmanship.

我认为，这些投诉是否合理，这个问题很难回答。

I think the question of whether or not the complaints are valid is difficult to answer.

这取决于具体情况。

It depends.

有些包，比如最著名的奢侈品包之一——爱马仕的Birkin包。

So some bags, like, probably one of the most famous luxury bags is Hermes's Birkin.

这款包确实是由一位工匠从头到尾手工制作的。

And that is indeed manufactured start to finish by a single craftsman.

因此，我们脑海中那种一个人在桌边制作皮包的画面——像Birkin包这样的产品，确实可能看起来有点像那样。

And so the vision that we all have in our heads of one person working on the leather bag at a table, something like the Birkin probably does look a little bit like that.

另一方面，奢侈品行业的确在规模上急剧扩张。

On the other hand, it is true that the luxury industry has exploded in size.

随着这种扩张，对更大产量的需求也随之增加。

And with that expansion comes the need to produce more and more.

因此，对成本倍数的压力也相应上升了。

And so the pressure to make cost multiples has also gone up.

于是，你看到奢侈品公司对工厂提出了更高的要求：过去我们可能以制造成本的八倍价格出售商品，而现在我们试图以十二到十五倍的价格出售。

So you have seen greater demands from luxury companies to their factories saying, whereas we might once have sold goods for eight times the price that it cost to manufacture them, now we're trying to sell them for 12 to 15 times.

手袋对奢侈品集团而言并非次要业务。

Handbags aren't a side concern for luxury conglomerates.

在过去的几年里，它们一直是这些集团成功的核心。

They've been central to their success over the past several years.

贝恩公司的分析师发现，2019年至2023年间，这类皮革制品占奢侈品市场增长的25%至30%。

Analysts at Bain found that such leather goods accounted for between 2530% of the expansion of the luxury market between 2019 and 2023.

但在过去几年里，手袋的销售并没有那么强劲。

But in the past several years, handbag sales haven't been as swinging.

曾经推动奢侈品销售的手袋，如今在奢侈品集团的其他产品线上遭遇了更强的竞争。

Where handbags used to drive luxury sales, other parts of luxury conglomerates portfolio have been out competing them.

例如，珠宝——消费者认为其性价比更高——甚至酒店和旅行等体验类产品。

For example, jewelry, which consumers perceive to be better value for money, or even experiences like hotels and travel.

贝恩公司还估计，自2023年以来，皮革制品销量下滑占奢侈品整体消费减少的五分之三。

Bain also reckoned that declining sales of leather goods accounted for about three fifths of the reduction in overall spending on luxury since 2023.

真正的奢侈品曾经意味着稀有材料、精湛工艺和真正的稀缺性。

Real luxury used to mean rare materials, masterful craftsmanship, genuine scarcity.

但大规模生产彻底改变了这一切。

But misproduction changed everything.

现在，这些视频只是人们更加关注奢侈品手袋质量的一种方式。

Now we So these kind of videos are just one way in which there's been greater scrutiny of the quality of luxury handbags.

另一个非常重要的方面是，这些包声称是意大利或法国制造的。

Another really important one has to do with the idea that these bags are made in Italy or made in France.

因此，在过去几年里，意大利政府对多家奢侈品集团及其供应商展开了一系列调查和起诉，指控他们在意大利使用类似血汗工厂的劳动方式生产奢侈品手袋。

So over the past several years, the Italian government has opened a series of investigations and prosecutions of luxury conglomerates and their suppliers over allegations that they are using sweatshop style labor in Italy to produce luxury handbags.

像香奈儿和普拉达这样的公司正在努力解决因行业大规模扩张而引发的质量问题，方法包括完全或部分收购其供应商的股份，并表示将进行审查，以确保我们完全了解供应链的运作方式。

And some companies like Chanel and Prada have been working to fix quality issues that have been caused in part by the large expansion of the industry by either acquiring in whole or in part stakes in their suppliers and saying, we're going to engage in reviews to make sure that we know exactly how our supply chain works.

他们这样做的原因是，他们深知质量对销售至关重要。

And the reason why they're doing that is because they know that quality is essential to their sales.

手袋之所以在奢侈品公司的成功中占据核心地位，是因为它们是一种非常显眼的身份象征。

One reason why handbags have been so central to luxury company success is that they're a really visible status symbol.

每个人都能看到它挂在你的手臂上或搭配在你的服装侧面，但这不仅仅是别人看到的东西。

Everyone sees it on your arm or on the side of your outfit, but it's not just something that other people see.

它也是人们每天都会触摸和感受的东西。

It's also something that people touch and feel every day.

因此，是的，他们在意手袋的外观，但消费者仍然非常在意手袋的制作工艺。

And so, yes, they care about how a bag looks, but consumers still do really care about how bags are crafted.

如果他们觉得这种承诺没有实现，他们还有其他选择。

And if they don't feel that that promise is fulfilled, they have other places to go.

本期《The Intelligence》就到这里。

That's all for this episode of The Intelligence.

我们明天再见。

We'll see you back here tomorrow.