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乔·罗根播客。
Joe Rogan podcast.
去看看。
Check it out.
乔·罗根体验。
The Joe Rogan experience.
展示我的一天。
Showing my day.
晚上听乔·罗根播客。
Joe Rogan podcast by night.
一整天。
All day.
你好,萨姆。
Hello, Sam.
怎么回事?
What's happening?
没什么。
Not much.
你怎么样
How are
进来这里。
for coming in here.
谢谢。
Appreciate it.
感谢你邀请我。
Thanks for having me.
你做过什么?
What have you done?
比如,一直?
Like, ever?
没有。
No.
我的意思是,你对人工智能做了些什么?
I mean, what have you done with AI?
我的意思是,这一点在于,我觉得每个人都对它着迷。
I mean, it's one of the things about this is I mean, I think everyone is fascinated by it.
我的意思是,每个人都对当前的能力感到震惊,并在思考未来的潜力,以及这是否是一件好事。
I mean, everyone is absolutely blown away at the current capability and wondering what the potential for the future is and whether or not that's a good thing.
我认为这会是一件好事,但我觉得不会全是好事。
I think it's gonna be a great thing, but I think it's not gonna be all a great thing.
而正是在这里,我认为所有的复杂性都出现了。
And that that is where I think that's where all of the complexity comes in.
对人们来说,这并不是一个简单的故事:我们会做这件事,一切都会很好。
For people, it's not this, like, clean story of we're going to do this and it's all going to be great.
而是我们会做这件事,整体上会是好的,但这将像一场技术革命。
It's we're going to do this, it's going to be net great, but it's going to be like a technological revolution.
这将是一场社会革命。
It's going to be a societal revolution.
而这些变革总是伴随着变化。
And those always come with change.
即使整体上是极好的,我们还是会失去一些东西。
And even if it's like net wonderful, you know, there's things we're gonna lose along the way.
一些类型的工作、生活方式的某些部分,以及我们生活的一些方面都将发生变化或消失。
Some kinds of jobs, some kind parts of our way of life, some parts of the way we live are gonna change or go away.
无论前景多么巨大,我相信它将会非常好。
And eat no matter how tremendous the upside is there, and I and I believe it will be tremendously good.
你知道,我们需要应对很多问题,以确保一切顺利。
You know, there's a lot of stuff we gotta navigate through to make sure.
这是一件很难让人理解的复杂事情,而且人们对它有着深刻且完全可以理解的情感。
That's that's a complicated thing for anyone to wrap their heads around, and there's, you know, deep and super understandable emotions around that.
这是一个非常诚实的回答。
That's a very honest answer.
虽然不会一切都好,但到目前为止,这似乎已是不可避免的。
The it's not all gonna be good, but it seems inevitable at this point.
是啊。
It's yeah.
我的意思是,这确实是不可避免的。
I mean, it's definitely inevitable.
我的世界观是这样的,当你还是个学生的时候,你会学到一次又一次的技术革命。
My my view of the world, you know, when you're like a kid in school, you learn about this technological revolution, and then that one, and then that one.
而我现在从过去和未来的角度看待世界,觉得这其实是一场漫长的技术革命。
And my view of the world now sort of looking backwards and forwards is that this is like one long technological revolution.
当然,我们首先得搞懂农业,这样才能获得资源和时间去制造机器。
And we had sure, like, first we had to figure out agriculture so that we had the resources and time to figure out how to build machines.
然后我们迎来了工业革命,这让我们学到了很多东西。
Then we got this industrial revolution, and that made us learn about a lot of stuff.
还有很多其他的科学发现,让我们实现了计算机革命,而现在,随着我们扩展到这些庞大的系统,正在推动人工智能革命。
A lot of other scientific discovery too, let us do the computer revolution, and that's now letting us, as we scale up to these massive systems, do the AI revolution.
但事实上,这不过是人类不断发现科学与技术,并与之共同演化的漫长故事而已。
But it really is just one long story of humans discovering science and technology and co evolving with it.
我认为这是有史以来最令人兴奋的故事。
And I think it's the most exciting story of all time.
我认为这是我们走向富足世界的方式。
I think it's how we get to this world of abundance.
尽管我们确实需要应对这些问题,也会有负面影响,但如果你思考一下这对世界和人们生活质量意味着什么——如果我们能进入一个智能成本大幅下降、随之而来的富足程度极大提升的世界,那将意义非凡。
And although, you know, although we do have these things to navigate and there there will be these downsides, if if you think about what it means for the world and for people's quality of lives, if we can get to a world where the the cost of intelligence and the abundance that comes with that, the cost dramatically falls, the abundance goes ways goes way up.
我认为我们在能源上也会做同样的事情。
I think we'll do the same thing with energy.
我认为这两者是我们所追求的一切的关键投入。
And I think those are the two sort of key inputs to everything else we want.
因此,如果我们能获得丰富且廉价的能源和智能,这将极大地改善人们的生活。
So if we can have abundant and cheap energy and intelligence, that will transform people's lives largely for the better.
我认为,就像如果我们现在能回到五百年前,观察一个人的生活,我们会说:虽然有一些美好的事物,但他们没有这个。
And I think it's gonna in the same way that if we could go back now five hundred years and look at someone's life, we'd say, well, there there's some great things, but they didn't have this.
他们也没有那个。
They didn't have that.
你能相信他们当时没有现代医学吗?
Can you believe they didn't have modern medicine?
五十年后,人们也会这样看待我们。
That's what people are gonna look back at us like but in fifty years.
当你想到那些目前依赖AI将取代的工作的人时,无论是卡车司机还是自动化工人,那些在工厂装配线上工作的人,有什么策略可以减轻AI取代这些工作带来的负面影响吗?
When you think about the people that currently rely on jobs that AI will replace, when you think about whether it's truck drivers or automation workers, people that work in factory assembly lines, what, if anything, what strategies can be put to mitigate the negative downsides of those jobs being eliminated by AI?
所以
So
我会谈谈一些总体想法,但我发现做出非常具体的预测很难,因为技术的发展方式与我自己的直觉,甚至与我自己的直觉都大不相同。
I'll talk about some general thoughts, but I I find making very specific predictions difficult because the way the technology goes has been so different than even my own intuitions or certainly my own intuitions.
也许我们该在这里停一下,退回去一点。
Can we maybe we should stop there and back up a little.
你最初的想法是什么?
What we what were your initial thoughts?
如果你十年前问我,我会说,首先,AI会首先冲击蓝领劳动。
If you had asked me ten years ago, I would have said, first, AI is gonna come for blue collar labor, basically.
它会开卡车、做工厂工作,还会操作重型机械。
It's gonna drive trucks and do factory work and, you know, it'll handle heavy machinery.
然后也许之后,它会做一些认知类工作,你知道的,但不会去做我认为真正困难的事情。
Then maybe after that, it'll do, like, some kinds of cognitive labor kind of, you know, but not it won't be off doing what I think of personally as the really hard stuff.
它不会去证明新的数学定理,不会去发现新的科学,也不会去写代码。
It won't be off proving new mathematical theorems, won't be off, you know, discovering new science, won't be off writing code.
最终,也许,但可能是最后才轮到,也许永远不会,因为人类的创造力是一种神奇而特殊的东西。
And then eventually, maybe, but maybe last of all, maybe never, because human creativity is this magic special special thing.
最后,它才会冲击创意类工作。
Last of all, it'll come for the creative jobs.
这就是我以前会说的话。
That's what I would have said.
现在,A)在我看来,AI 在完成任务方面比完成工作要强得多。
Now, A) it looks to me like and for a while, AI is much better at doing tasks than doing jobs.
它可以非常出色地完成这些小片段,但有时会失控,无法保持长期的连贯性。
It can do these little pieces super well, but sometimes it goes off the rails, can't keep like very long coherence.
因此,人们现在能够以高得多的效率完成他们现有的工作。
So people are instead just able to do their existing jobs way more productively.
但今天你仍然需要人类在场。
But you really still need the human there today.
而B点恰恰相反,AI可能会先胜任创造性工作,比如编程其次,其他类型的认知劳动第三,而我们离类人机器人还最远。
And then B, it's going exactly the other direction, could do the creative work first, stuff like coding second, or they can do things like other kinds of cognitive labor third, and we're the furthest away from, like, humanoid robots.
所以回到最初的问题。
So back to the initial question.
如果我们真的有某种技术彻底淘汰了工厂工人、卡车司机、送货司机,没错。
If we do have something that completely eliminates factory workers, completely eliminates truck drivers, delivery drivers Yeah.
类似这样的情况,会在我们的社会中制造巨大的真空。
Things along those lines, that creates this massive vacuum in our society.
所以我认为,我们会做一些有益但不足以解决问题的事情。
So I think there's things that we're gonna do that are good to do but not sufficient.
我认为在某个时候,我们会采取类似全民基本收入或其他长期失业保险的措施,通过某种方式在社会中重新分配财富,为人们提供缓冲,帮助他们适应新的工作。
So I think at some point, we will do something like a UBI or some other kind of like very long term unemployment insurance something, but we'll have some way of giving people, like redistributing money in society as a cushion for people as people figure out the new jobs.
但也许我应该谈谈这一点。
But and I maybe I should touch on that.
我根本不相信会没有大量新工作出现。
I'm not a believer at all that there won't be lots of new jobs.
我认为人类的创造力、对地位的渴望、对不同竞争方式的需求、发明新事物的欲望、融入社群的感觉、被重视的感觉,这些都不会消失。
I I think human creativity, desire for status, wanting different ways to compete, invent new things, feel part of a community, feel valued, That's not gonna go anywhere.
人们一直对此感到担忧。
People have worried about that forever.
实际情况是我们有了更好的工具,然后就发明了新的、更令人惊叹的事情去做。
What happens is we get better tools and we just invent new things and more amazing things to do.
外面有一个广阔的宇宙。
And there's a big universe out there.
我的意思是,字面意义上,太空真的非常广阔,但更重要的是,如果我们进入了一个智能充裕的世界,在那里你可以随时产生一个新想法并让它实现,那么我们可以做的事情就太多了。
And and I think I mean that, like, literally in that there's, like, space is really big, but also there's just so much stuff we can all do if we do get to this world of abundant intelligence where you can sort of just think of a new idea and it it gets created.
但再说一遍,这并不能缓解我们最初提到的问题——对那些今天正在失去工作的人们来说,这并不能带来多大的安慰。
But but again, that doesn't to the point we started with that that that doesn't provide like great solace to people who are losing their jobs today.
所以,当人们听到未来会有大量美好的事情发生时,他们会问:那我们今天该做什么?
So saying there's gonna be this great indefinite stuff in the future, people are like, what are we doing today?
所以,我认为作为社会,我们会采取像全民基本收入和其他再分配方式,但我认为这并没有触及人们真正想要的核心。
So, you know, we'll I think we will, as a society, do things like UBI and other ways of redistribution, but I don't think that gets at the core of what people want.
我认为人们真正想要的是自主权、自我决定权,能够与社会其他成员共同参与塑造未来的能力,能够表达自我并创造对自己有意义的东西。
I think what people want is like agency, self determination, the ability to play a role in architecting the future along with the rest of society, the ability to express themselves and create something meaningful to them.
而且,我认为很多人从事着他们讨厌的工作。
And also, think a lot of people work jobs they hate.
我认为,作为社会,我们总是有点困惑,到底希望工作得更多还是更少。
And I think there's we, as a society, are always a little bit confused about whether we want to work more or work less.
但无论如何,我们都能够做些有意义的事,都能在推动未来前进中扮演自己的角色。
But but somehow, that we all get to do something meaningful, and we all get to play our role in driving the future forward.
这真的非常重要。
That's really important.
我希望的是,当那些长途卡车司机的工作消失时——虽然人们一直错误地预测这件事会多快发生,但它终将发生。
And what I hope is, as those truck driving long haul truck driving jobs go away, which, you know, people have been wrong about predicting how fast that's going to happen, but it's going to happen.
我们不仅要找到一种通过每月给人们发放等同于金钱的方式来解决经济问题的方法,而且还要找到一种方式——我们对此有很多想法。
We figure out not just a way to solve the economic problem by, like, giving people the equivalent of money every month, but that there's a way that and we've got a lot of ideas about this.
有一种方式,让我们共同拥有并共同决定未来的方向。
There's a way that we, like, share ownership and decision making over the future.
我经常提到AGI时说,每个人都意识到我们必须共享其带来的好处,但我们也必须共同参与对其的决策和对系统的访问权。
A thing I say a lot about AGI is that everyone everyone realizes we're gonna have to share the benefits of that, but we also have to share, like, the decision making over it and access to the system itself.
与其给地球上每个人分配AGI收益的八十分之一,我们更应该说:你获得的是系统整体的八十分之一的八十分之一份额。
Like, I'd be more excited about a world where we say, rather than give everybody on Earth, like, one eight billionth of the AGI money, which we should do that to, we say, you get like one eight billionth of one eight billionth slice of the system.
你可以把它卖给别人。
You can sell it to somebody else.
你可以把它卖给一家公司。
You can sell it to a company.
你可以把它和其他人 pooling 在一起。
You can pool it with other people.
你可以用它来追求任何你想要的创意事业。
You can use it for whatever creative pursuit you want.
你可以用它来 figuring out 如何创办一家新企业。
You can use it to figure out how to start some new business.
有了它,你就获得了一种投票权,决定这一切将如何被使用。
And with that, you get sort of like a voting right over how this is all gonna be used.
因此,AGI 越强大,你那八十分之一的小小所有权对你来说就越有价值。
And so the better the AGI gets, the more your little one eight billionth ownership is is worth to you.
前几天我们在播客上开玩笑,我说我们需要一个AI政府。
We were joking around the other day on the podcast where I was saying that what we need is an AI government.
我们应该有一个AI总统,让AI
That that we should we should have AI president and have AI
做所有决定吗?
Just make all the decisions?
对。
Yeah.
有一个完全中立、绝对理性、拥有整个人类历史积累知识的系统
Have something that's completely unbiased, absolutely rational, has the accumulated knowledge of the entire human history
是的。
Yeah.
在它的
At its
支配之下,包括所有心理学和心理研究的知识,还有全民基本收入,因为它伴随着一系列你懂的陷阱和问题。
disposal, including all knowledge of psychology and psychological study, including UBI because that comes with a host of, you know, pitfalls and and and issues that people have with it.
所以我要说一点关于这个。
So I'll say something there.
我认为我们离一个足够强大且可靠的系统还很远,远到我们任何人都不会希望拥有它。
I think we're still very far away from a system that is capable enough and reliable enough that you that any of us would want that.
但我告诉你,我非常喜欢这一点。
But I'll tell you something I love about that.
总有一天,假设这样的系统被构建出来了。
Someday, let's say that thing gets built.
它能够与地球上每个人交流,深入理解他们的确切偏好,知道他们如何看待这个问题和那个问题,如何权衡利弊,以及他们真正想要什么,然后综合所有这些信息,为全人类或美国公民的集体偏好进行优化,这太棒了。
The fact that it can go around and talk to every person on Earth, understand their exact preferences at a very deep level, you know, how they think about this issue and that one and how they balance the trade offs and what they want, and then understand all of that and and, like, collectively optimize optimize for the collective preferences of humanity or of citizens of The US, that's awesome.
只要它不被收买就行。
As long as it's not co opted.
对吧?
Right?
我们现在的政府已经被收买了。
Our government currently is co opted.
这毫无疑问。
That's for sure.
我们很清楚,我们的政府深受特殊利益集团的影响。
We we know for sure that our government is heavily influenced by special interests.
如果我们能有一个不受任何影响的人工智能政府。
If we could have an artificial intelligence government that has no influence.
没有任何力量能影响它。
Nothing has influence on it.
这个想法真有趣。
What a fascinating idea.
这是可能的。
It's possible.
我认为这可能是唯一的方式,能为我们在社会中面临的每一个问题、每一个困境,做出完全客观、最智慧的决策。
And I think it might be the only way where you're gonna get completely objective the absolute most intelligent decision for virtually every problem, every dilemma that we face currently in society.
你真的愿意把最终决策权交出去吗?比如,好吧,AI,交给你了。
Would you truly be comfortable handing over, like, final decision making and say, alright, AI.
你从这里接手。
You got it from
这里。
here.
不。
No.
但我对任何人也不放心这么做。
But I'm not comfortable doing that with anybody.
对。
Right.
你知道吗?
You know?
我的意思是,我不对。
I mean, I I don't Right.
我对《爱国者法案》感到不安。
I was uncomfortable with the Patriot Act.
我对人们做出的许多决定都感到不安。
I'm uncomfortable with, you know, many decisions that people that are being made.
显然有大量证据表明,这些决策并非以人民的整体福祉为最佳利益。
It's just there's so much obvious evidence that decisions that are being made are not being made in the best interest of the overall well of the people.
决策是由那些向大公司、军事工业复合体和制药工业复合体捐款的势力所主导的,归根结底就是钱。
It's being made in the decisions of whatever gigantic corporations that have donated to and what whatever the military industrial complex and pharmaceutical industrial complex and and it's just the money.
我们今天真正知道的是,金钱对我们的社会、所做出的选择以及民众的整体福祉有着巨大的影响。
It's that's really what we know today, that that money has a massive influence on on our society and the choices that get made and the overall good or bad for the population.
是的。
Yeah.
我完全同意,当前的系统严重出了问题,完全无法为人民服务,极其腐败,毫无疑问是由金钱操控的。
I I have no disagreement at all that the current system is super broken, not working for people, super corrupt corrupt, and for sure, like, unbelievably run by money.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为,通过人工智能,我们完全有可能做得更好。
And and I think there is a way to do a better job than that with AI just in some way.
但也许这只是因为我整天沉浸在这些系统中,目睹了它们失败的各种方式。
But and this might just be like a factor of sitting with the systems all day and watching all of the ways they fail.
我们还有很长的路要走。
We got a long way to go.
还有很长的路要走。
A long way to go.
我确信。
I'm sure.
但当你想到通用人工智能,想到它可能走向的未来时,你有没有做过任何推演?
But when you think of AGI, when you think of the possible future, like, where it goes to, do you ever extrapolate?
你有没有坐下来,停下来想过:如果这个系统真的有了意识,并且能够创造出更好的自我版本,那我们距离真正面对一个‘神’还有多久?
Do you ever do you ever, like, sit and pause and say, well, if this if this becomes sentient and it has the ability to make better versions of itself, How long before we're literally dealing with a god?
我对这个问题的看法是,过去人们认为AGI是一个非常二元的时刻。
So the way that I think about this is it used to be that, like, AGI was this very binary moment.
认为它分为‘之前’和‘之后’,但我认为这种想法完全错了。
It was before and after, and I think totally wrong about that.
正确的理解方式是,智能是一个连续的谱系,是一条平滑的指数曲线,一直回溯到技术革命的那条平滑曲线。
And the right way to think about it is this continue continuum of intelligence, this smooth exponential curve back all the way to that sort of smooth curve curve of technological revolution.
我们能投入系统的算力、关于如何让它更高效更聪明的科学理念,以及赋予它推理能力、思考如何自我改进的能力,这些都会逐步实现。
The the amount of compute power we can put into the system, the scientific ideas about how to make it more efficient and smarter, to give it the ability to do reasoning, to think about how to improve itself, that will all come.
但长期以来,我的模型认为,如果你观察AGI研究者的世界,关于你提到的安全问题,大致存在两种观点。
But my my model for a long time I I think if you look at the world of AGI thinkers, there's there's sort of two particularly around the safety issues you're talking about.
其中有两条关键的维度。
There's two axes that matter.
一个是所谓的‘短时间线’或‘长时间线’,也就是达到AGI第一个里程碑(无论那是什么)所需的时间。
There's the short what called short timelines or long timelines, you know, to the first milestone of AGI, whatever that's gonna be.
这会在几年内、几十年内发生,甚至更久吗?
Is that gonna happen in a few years, a few decades, maybe even longer?
不过目前,我认为大多数人认为是几年或几十年。
Although at this point, I think most people are a few years or a few decades.
然后是起飞速度。
And then there's takeoff speed.
一旦我们达到那个阶段,从那里到它能够快速自我改进的阶段,这个过程是更慢还是更快?
Once we get there, from there to that point you're talking about where it's capable of the rapid self improvement, is that a slower or faster process?
我认为我们正在走向、并且也身处的世界,同时也是我认为最可控、最安全的世界,是短时间线和慢起飞的象限。
The the world that I think we're heading, that we're in, and also the world that I think is the most controllable and the safest, is the short timelines and slow takeoff quadrant.
我认为我们会拥有,你知道,曾经有一段时间,很多非常聪明的人认为,你刚才提到的那些事情会在一天或三天内发生。
And I think we're gonna have, you know, there were a lot of very smart people for a while who were like, the thing you were just talking about happens in a day or three days.
但根据我们目前对技术的理解,这似乎不太可能。
And I don't that doesn't seem likely to me given the shape of the technology as we understand it now.
即使这发生在十年或三十年内,从历史的角度来看,这仍然只是眨眼之间。
Now, even if that happens in a decade or three decades, it's still like the blink of an eye from a historical perspective.
要正确实现这一点,将会面临一些真正的挑战。
And there are gonna be some real challenges to getting that right.
我们所做的决策、世界所建立的安全系统和检查机制,以及我们如何从安全角度思考全球监管或行为准则,都至关重要。
And the decisions we make, the the sort of safety systems and the and the checks that the world puts in place, how we think about global regulation or rules of the road from a safety perspective for those projects.
这非常重要,因为你可以想象很多事情可能会严重出错。
It's super important because you can imagine many things going horribly wrong.
但我对世界在认真对待这一问题方面所取得的进展感到乐观。
But I've been I feel cheerful about the progress the world is making towards taking this seriously.
这让我想起了我在核武器研发时期所读到的关于世界所进行的那些讨论。
And, you know, it reminds me of what I've read about the conversations that the world had right around the development of nuclear weapons.
在我看来,至少在公众意识层面,这一问题的出现非常迅速;以前人们虽然知道人工智能这个概念,但并没有想到它会如此全面、如此迅速地被应用。
It seems to me that this is, at least in terms of public consciousness, this has emerged very rapidly where I don't think anyone was really aware people were aware of the concept of artificial intelligence, but they didn't think that it was gonna be implemented so comprehensively, so quickly.
是的。
Yeah.
所以ChatGPT现在是45了?
So chat GPT is on, what, 45 now?
4。
4.
4。
4.
有了45,它的能力会呈指数级增长吗?
And with 45, there'll be some sort of an exponential increase in its abilities?
它会稍微好一点。
It'll be somewhat better
每一步都是如此。
each step.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道,从每一个这样的半步进步来看,人类总是能很快适应任何新技术。
You know, from each, like, half step like that, you you kinda humans have this ability to, like, get used to any new technology so quickly.
嗯。
Mhmm.
我认为ChatGPT 3.5和4.0发布时不同寻常的地方在于,人们之前根本没有关注。
The thing that I think was unusual about the launch of ChatGPT 3.5 and then four was that people hadn't really been paying attention.
这正是我们选择发布的原因之一。
And that's part of the reason we deploy.
我们认为,让人们和机构有时间逐步理解、反应,并共同设计我们想要与之共存的社会,是非常重要的。
We think it's very important that people and institutions have time to gradually understand this, react, co design the society that we want with it.
如果你只是在实验室里秘密研发通用人工智能,然后突然把它抛向世界,我认为这绝对是个糟糕的主意。
And if you just build AGI in secret in a lab and then drop it on the world all at once, I think that's a really bad idea.
所以我们一直试图与世界沟通这个问题。
So we we had been trying to talk to the world about this for a while.
如果你不给人们一些他们能在生活中感受到和使用的东西,他们就不会认真对待。
People if you don't give people something they can feel and use in their lives, they don't quite take it seriously.
每个人都很忙。
Everybody's busy.
因此,技术发展水平与公众意识之间存在着巨大的脱节。
And so there was this big overhang from where the technology was to where public consciousness was.
现在,这种差距已经弥补了。
Now, that's caught up.
我们已经发布了。
We've deployed.
我认为人们已经理解了。
I think people understand it.
我不期待从四代到我们完成4.5版本(这还需要一段时间)的跳跃会带来巨大冲击。
I don't expect the few the jump from like four to whenever we finish 4.5, which will be a little while.
我不认为这会是那种疯狂的转变,人们所经历的剧烈调整大部分已经发生了。
I don't expect that to be the crazy I think the crazy switch, the crazy adjustment that people have had to go through has has mostly happened.
我认为大多数人已经从认为AGI是科幻且遥不可及,转变为接受它终将到来。
I think most people have gone from thinking that AGI was science fiction and very far off to something that is gonna happen.
那是一次一次性的心态重构。
And that was like a one time reframe.
而现在,你知道,每年你都会得到一款新的iPhone。
And now, you know, every year you get a new iPhone.
自发布以来的十五年左右,它们变得显著更好了。
Over the fifteen years or whatever since the launch, they've gotten dramatically better.
但从一款iPhone到下一款,你只会觉得:嗯,好了一点。
But iPhone to iPhone, you're like, yeah, okay, it's a little better.
但如果你把第一代iPhone和现在的15代或其他型号放在一起对比,那差别就大了。
But now if you go hold up the first iPhone to the 15 or whatever, that's a big difference.
从GPT-3.5到AGI,那将是一个巨大的飞跃。
GPT 3.5 to AGI, that'll be a big difference.
但在这个过程中,它只会逐步变得更好。
But along the way, it'll just get incrementally better.
你有没有想过像Neuralink这样的技术,以及一些其他竞争性技术,它们正试图在人类生物系统与科技之间建立某种连接?
Do you think about the convergence of things like Neuralink and there's a few competing technologies where they're trying to implement some sort of some sort of a connection between the human biological system and technology.
你愿意在脑子里装一个这样的设备吗?
Do you want one of those things in your head?
我不愿意,直到所有人都装了。
I don't until everybody does.
对。
Right.
而且,我有个关于这个的笑话。
And, you know, I have a joke about it.
但想法是,一旦它普及了,你就得跟上,因为每个人都会拥有它。
But it's like the the idea is, like, once it gets you have to kinda because everybody's gonna have it.
所以一个
So one
关于所有这些合并相关问题的一个难题,正是你刚才说的。
of the hard questions about the mer all of the related merge stuff is exactly what you just said.
比如,作为社会,我们会允许一些人与AGI融合吗?
Like, as a society, are we gonna let some people merge with AGI Right.
而不
And not
其他人?
others?
如果我们这么做了,而你选择不参与,那对你意味着什么?
And if we do, then and you choose not to, like, what does that mean for you?
对。
Right.
你会受到保护吗?
And will you be protected?
你如何把握住那个关键时刻?
How you get that moment right?
你知道吗,如果我们把想象延伸到科幻未来,已经有很多科幻小说探讨过如何把握住那个关键时刻。
You know, if we'd, like, imagine, like, all the way out to the sci fi future, there've been a lot of sci fi books written about how you get that moment right.
你知道,谁有资格第一个这么做?
You know, who gets to do that first?
那些不想参与的人怎么办?
What about people who don't want to?
你如何确保第一个这么做的人,真的能带动所有人共同进步?
How do you make sure the people that do it first, like, actually help lift everybody up together?
是的。
Yeah.
你如何确保那些只想过普通人生活的人能够做到这一点?
How do you make sure people who wanna just, like, live their very human life get to do that?
这些问题真的很难,而且离我日常的烦恼太远了,所以我没太多时间去思考它们,尽管我觉得它们非常有趣。
That stuff is really hard and honestly so far off from my problems of the day that I don't get to think about that as much as I'd like to because I do think it's super interesting.
但我确实觉得,如果我们只是从逻辑上思考,这在某个时候将会是一个巨大的挑战,人们会想要截然不同的东西,但关于如何公平对待那些不参与的人,这背后有一个社会性的问题,非常非常复杂。
I but yeah, it seems like if we just think logically, that's gonna be a huge challenge at some point and people are gonna want wildly divergent things, but there is a societal question about how we're gonna like, the questions of fairness that come there and what it means for the people who don't do it, like, super, super complicated.
无论如何,在神经接口方面,从短期来看,在我们弄清楚如何将人的意识上传到计算机之前——即使这是否可能都还有争议,我认为对此有充分的理由认为它不可能实现。
Anyway, on the neural interface side, I'm in the short term, before we figure out how to upload someone's consciousness into a computer, if that's even possible at all, which I think there's plenty of sides you could take on why it's not.
我最感兴趣的是,我们能否在不向人脑钻孔的情况下实现某些功能。
The the thing that I find myself most interested in is what we can do without drilling a hole in someone's head.
我们能用外部设备读取多少内心独白?
How much of the inner monologue can we read out with an externally mounted device?
如果我们有一个不完美、低带宽、低准确率的神经接口,人们是否仍然能够学会很好地使用它,从而在新的计算平台上获得相当强大的能力?
And if we have a imperfect low bandwidth, low accuracy neural interface, can people still just learn how to use it really well in a way that's, like, quite powerful for what they can now do with a new computing platform?
我猜我们会弄清楚的。
And my guess is we'll figure that out.
你肯定见过那个头戴设备。
I'm sure you've seen that headpiece.
有一个演示,一个人问另一个人一个问题。
There's a a demonstration where there's someone asking someone a question.
他们戴着这个头戴设备。
They have this headpiece on.
他们心里想着这个问题,然后直接通过大脑搜索答案。
They think the question, and then they literally Google the question and get the answers through their head.
这正是我们一直在探索的方向。
That's the kind of thing we've been that's the kind of direction we've been exploring.
是的。
Yeah.
这在我看来是第一步。
That seems to me to be step one.
这就是‘是的’的回响。
That's the pong of Yeah.
最终的沉浸式三维视频游戏。
The eventual immersive three d video games.
你会先经历这些初步步骤,它们看起来会有点粗糙和缓慢。
Like, you're you're going to get these first steps, and they're gonna seem sort of crude and slow.
我的意思是,这本质上比直接问Siri还要慢。
Mean, I it's essentially slower than just asking Siri.
我认为,如果有人构建了一个系统,让你能思考词语——不一定是问题。
I think if someone built a system where you could think words doesn't have to be a question.
它可以只是你被动的内心独白,但当然也可以是一个问题。
It could just be your passive rambling inner monologue, but certainly could be a question.
而这些内容被输入到GPT-5或GPT-6中。
And that was being fed into GPT five or six.
然后在你的视野中,回应的词语会被显示出来,那就会是一首诗。
And in your field of vision, the words in response were being displayed, that would be the poem.
是的。
Yeah.
那还是汤。
That's still soup.
那是一个非常有价值的工具。
That's a very valuable tool to have.
这看起来是不可避免的。
And that seems like that's inevitable.
有
There's
在神经接口方面实现这一点需要艰苦的努力,但我相信它会发生。
hard work to get there on the neural interface side, but I believe it will happen.
是的。
Yeah.
我也这么认为。
I think so too.
我担心的是,这种技术的早期采用者将对普通大众拥有巨大的优势。
And my my concern is that the initial adopters of this will have such a massive advantage over the general population.
这并不让我担心,因为这就像……你知道的,这并不是你把大脑接入某种高风险的东西,这只是更好的电脑而已。
Well, that doesn't concern me because that's like a you know, that's not you're not that's just, like, better that's a better computer.
你并不是把大脑接入某种高风险的东西。
You're not, like, jacking your brain into something in a high risk thing.
你知道当你不想用它们的时候该怎么做吗?
You know what you do when you don't want them?
当你摘下眼镜的时候。
When you take off the glasses.
嗯。
Mhmm.
所以我觉得这样没问题。
So that feels fine.
那么,这只是一个外部设备了。
Well, this is just the external device then.
哦,我觉得我们迟早能通过外部设备读取你的想法。
Oh, I think we can do the kind of, like, read your thoughts with an external device at some point.
读取你的内心独白。
Read your internal monologue.
有意思。
Interesting.
你认为我们也能通过技术实现与外部设备的心灵感应或半心灵感应式交流吗?
And do you think we'll be able to communicate with an external device as well telepathically or semi telepathically through technology?
我觉得可以。
I do.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
我也觉得可以。
I do.
我也这么认为。
I think so too.
我真正担心的是,一旦我们开始使用真正的神经接口,当真正进行手术时,他们确实会。
My my real concern is that once we take the step to use an actual neural interface, when when there's an actual operation and they're Yeah.
使用某种植入物,而该植入物会变得越来越先进。
Using some sort of an implant, and then that implant becomes more sophisticated.
这不再是iPhone一代了。
It's not the iPhone one.
现在已经是iPhone 15了。
Now it's the iPhone 15.
随着这些技术不断进步,我们正走向赛博格时代。
And as these things get better and better, we're on the road to cyborgs.
我们正走向这样的境地:为什么你还想做一个生物人呢?
We're we're on the road to, like, why would you want to be a biological person?
当你能生活在矩阵里时,你真的还想住在木头小屋里吗?
Do you really wanna live in a fucking log cabin when you can be in the matrix?
我的意思是,我们似乎已经走上了这条路。
I mean, it seems like we're not we're on this path.
我们已经在这条路上走了一小段了。
We're already a little bit down that path.
对吧?
Right?
比如,如果你拿走一个人的手机,让他今天在社会中正常生活
Like, if you take away someone's phone and they have to go function in the world today
嗯。
Mhmm.
他就比其他人处于劣势。
They're at a disadvantage relative to everybody else.
所以,这可能是我们能想象到的最轻度的EMERGE版本。
So that's that's like a maybe that's like the lightest weight version of EMERGE we could imagine.
但我认为,如果我们回到之前关于那条指数曲线的话题,值得说的是,我们已经在这条路上脱离了x轴。
But I think it's worth, like, if we go back to that earlier thing about the one exponential curve, I think it's worth saying we've, like, lifted off the x axis already down this path.
嗯。
Mhmm.
一点点。
The tiniest bit.
而且,是的,即使你并不完全走向神经接口,虚拟现实也会变得如此出色,以至于有些人根本不想经常摘下来。
And, yeah, even if you don't go all the way to, like, a neural interface, VR will get so good that some people just don't wanna take it off that much.
对。
Right.
只要我们能解决如何思考世界中权力平衡的问题,这对他们来说就没问题。
And that's fine for them as long as we can solve this question of how do we, like, think about what a balance of pot power means in the world.
我认为会有很多人。
I think there will be many people.
我本人就是其中之一,我觉得人类的身体和人类的体验其实很棒。
I'm certainly one of them who's like, actually, the human body and the human experience is pretty great.
那座林中的小木屋,简直太棒了。
That log cabin in the woods, pretty awesome.
我不希望一直待在那里。
I don't wanna be there all the time.
我很想去玩那个很棒的电子游戏。
I'll I'd love to go play the great video game.
但能去那里,我真的非常开心,对吧。
But, like, I'm really happy to get to go there Right.
有时候。
Sometimes.
是的。
Yeah.
仍然有一些人类体验是非常棒的。
There's still human experiences that are just, like, great human experience.
和朋友一起大笑,或者和一个你从未亲吻过的人接吻,比如在第一次约会时。
Just laughing with friends, you know, kissing someone that you've never kissed before, that you're you're on a first date.
像这样的时刻,都是真实存在的。
That kind of those kind of things are they're real moments.
他只是笑。
He just laughs.
是的。
Yeah.
和朋友喝着葡萄酒,只是大笑。
Having a glass of wine with a friend and just laughing.
在虚拟现实里可没那么回事。
Not quite the same in VR.
是的。
Yeah.
确实不是。
It's not.
当虚拟现实发展到极致,你就像大脑被接入了,分不清真假。
When the VR goes super far, so you can't you know, it's like you are jacked in on your brain, and you can't tell
对。
Right.
什么是真实的,什么是虚假的。
What's real and what's not.
然后每个人都会深入讨论模拟假说,或者东方宗教之类的,我不知道那时会发生什么。
And then everybody gets, like, super deep on the simulation hypothesis or the, like, eastern religion or whatever, and I don't know what happens at that point.
你有没有玩过模拟理论?
Do you ever fuck around with simulation theory?
因为真正的问题是,当你把模拟理论和概率理论结合起来,去听那些人说:‘如果你只看数字,我们已经生活在模拟中的概率远高于我们不在模拟中的概率。’
Because the real problem is when you combine that with probability theory and you talk to the people that say, well, if you just look at the numbers, the the probability that we're already in a simulation is much higher than the probability that we're not.
我一直不清楚对此该怎么做。
It's never been clear to me what to do about it.
好吧。
It's like, okay.
对。
Right.
从理智上讲,这很有道理。
That into that intellectually makes a lot of sense.
是的。
Yeah.
我想大概是吧。
I think probably.
当然。
Sure.
对。
Right.
这看起来很有说服力。
That seems convincing.
但现在就是我的现实。
But But now is my reality.
是的。
Yeah.
这就是我的生活。
This is my life.
展开剩余字幕(还有 480 条)
嗯。
Yeah.
我会活出这样的生活。
And I'm gonna live it.
而且你知道,从大学新生宿舍走廊凌晨两点到现在,我在这上面取得的进步也就这么多。
And I I've you know, from, like, 2AM in my college freshman dorm hallway till now, I've made no more progress on it than that.
嗯,这看起来像是那种——如果它真的存在,如果它是真实的。
Well, it seems like one of those it's there's no you know, it's if it is a possibility, if it is real.
首先,一旦发生了,你打算怎么办?
First of all, once it happens, what are you gonna do?
我的意思是,那才是新的现实。
I mean, that that is the new reality.
而且在很多方面,我们的新现实对狩猎采集者来说,就像外星世界一样。
And and in many ways, our new reality is as alien to, you know, hunter gatherers
嗯。
Yeah.
从一万五千年前到现在,这种差距就像我们与那时的差距。
From fifteen thousand years ago as that would be to us now.
我的意思是,我们已经进入了一些非常奇特的领域,比如,我刚刚和我的孩子们聊了聊。
I mean, we're we're already we've already entered into some very bizarre territory where, you know, I was just having a conversation with my kids.
我们在讨论某个问题时,我总是说,我们来猜一猜。
We're asking questions about something, and, know, I always say, let's guess.
这个占多大比例?
What percentage of that is this?
然后我们直接谷歌搜索,再问Siri,就能立刻找到答案。
And then we just Google it and then just ask Siri and we pull it up.
你看,就是这样。
Like, look at that.
光是这一点,就和我13岁时必须去图书馆的情况相比,简直太不可思议了。
Like, that alone is so bizarre compared to how it was when I was 13, and you had to go to the library.
我希望那本书的内容是准确的。
I'd hope that the book was accurate.
完全正确。
Totally.
我最近读到一些关于ChatGPT和谷歌等系统对环境影响的报道,说它们很糟糕,因为每次查询都会消耗大量的能量,这让我非常恼火。
I I was very annoyed this I was reading about how horrible systems like ChatGPT and Google are from an environmental impact because it's, you know, using, like, extremely tiny amount of energy for each query.
我们都在毁灭地球,但我想说,在那之前,人们都是开车去图书馆的。
And, you know, how we're all destroying the world, and I was like, before that, people drove to the library.
让我们来谈谈,过去为回答一个问题所消耗的碳排放量,和现在相比到底有多少。
Let's talk about how much carbon they burned to answer this question versus what it takes now.
别开玩笑了。
Come on.
但那只是人们在找理由说某件事是坏的。
Are those but that's just people looking for some reason why something's bad.
这并不合逻辑,完全不对。
That's not a logical Totally.
这种观点。
Perspective.
我们应当关注的是,这项技术所能带来的巨大变革。
What we should be looking at is the spectacular changes that are possible through this.
还有我们面临的种种难题——资源问题、环境问题、清理海洋、气候变化,我们有太多太多的问题。
And all the problems, the insurmountable problems that we have with resources, with the environment, with cleaning up the ocean, climate change, there's so many problems that we have.
用它来解决所有其他问题。
This to solve all of everything else.
所以我们需要一位总统级的人工智能。
And that's why we need president AI.
如果人工智能能促成所有科学发现,但我们依然由人类担任总统,你觉得我们会 okay 吗?
If if AI could, make every scientific discovery, but we still had human presidents, do think we'd be okay?
不会。
No.
因为那些家伙依然会中饱私囊,拥有离岸账户,腐败问题始终存在,如何遏制腐败也是一个令人着迷的议题。而当前技术状态的一个有趣之处在于,我们对腐败的意识比以往任何时候都更强。
Because those creeps would still be pocketing money, and they'd have offshore accounts, and it would it would always be a weird thing of corruption and how to mitigate that corruption, which is also one of the fascinating things about the current state of technology is that we're so much more aware of corruption.
我们有更多独立报道,对现存问题也有了更清醒的认识。
We're so much more there's so much independent reporting, and we're so much more cognizant of the actual problems that are in place.
这真是太棒了。
This is really great.
我观察到的一件事——当然,很多人也注意到——腐败是阻碍社会任何进展和向前发展的巨大障碍。
One of the thing one of the things that I've observed, obviously, many other people too, is corruption is such an incredible hindrance to getting anything done in a society to make forward progress.
当我年轻的时候,我的世界观更偏向以美国为中心。
And, you know, my my worldview had been more US centric when I was younger.
但随着我更多地研究世界,并在更多地方工作,我惊讶地发现腐败依然如此普遍。
And as I've just studied the world more and had to work in more places in the world, like, it's amazing how much corruption there still is.
但向技术赋能世界的转变,我认为是对抗腐败的主要力量,因为一切都更难隐藏了。
But the shift to a technologically enabled world, I think, is a major force against it because everything is it's harder to hide stuff.
我相信,世界上的腐败趋势将持续下降。
And I do think corruption in the world will keep trending down.
因为它的暴露——是的。
Because of its exposure Yeah.
通过技术。
Through technology.
我的意思是,这是有代价的,我非常担心监控国家在这里会走多远。
If I mean, that that it comes at a cost, and I think the loss the, like, I am very worried about how far the surveillance state could go here.
嗯。
Mhmm.
但在一个支付方式不再是现金袋、而是以某种数字形式进行的世界里,即使你使用比特币,别人也能追踪这些资金流动。
But in a world where payments, for example, are no longer like bags of cash, but done somehow digitally, and somebody, even if you're using Bitcoin, can, like, watch those flows.
我认为这有助于减少腐败。
I think that's like a corruption reducing thing.
我同意,但我非常担心央行数字货币与社会信用评分挂钩。
I agree, but I'm very worried about central bank digital currency and that being tied to a social credit score.
那就是问题所在。
That's where
这完全相反。
it's super against.
是的。
Yeah.
这让我吓坏了
That scares the shit out
我。
of me.
极度反对。
Super against.
而且推动这一点并不是为了社会的整体利益。
And that the push to that is not that's not for the overall good of society.
这是为了控制。
That's for control.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得,说实话,美国政府最近做的很多事都让我感到失望。
I I think, like I mean, there's many things that I'm disappointed that the US government has done recently.
但对加密货币的打压,我认为我们不能放弃这一点。
But the the war on crypto, which I think is a, like, we can't give this up.
我的意思是,我们要控制这一切,这正是让我对这个国家感到非常难过的地方。
Like, we're gonna control this and all the like, that that's, like me that that's the thing that, like, makes me quite sad about the country.
这让我对这个国家也感到非常难过。
It makes me quite sad about the country too.
但你再看看像FTX这样的事情,没有监管、没人监督,事情就会失控。
But then you also see with things like FTX, like, oh, this can get without regulation and without someone overseeing it.
情况会变得一团糟。
This can get really fucked.
是的。
Yeah.
我不是反对监管。
I'm I'm not anti regulation.
我认为监管显然有其作用,而且我也觉得FTX的情况简直荒唐至极,我们不该
Like, I think there's clearly a role for it, and I also think FTX was like a sort of comically bad situation that we shouldn't
从中学到太多。
learn too much from either.
嗯。
Yeah.
嗯。
Yeah.
但这很有趣。
But it's a fun one.
这确实很有趣。
Like, it's totally fun.
我喜欢那个故事。
And you I love that story.
我的意思是,你明显
I mean, you clearly
我真的这么觉得。
I really do.
我喜欢他们都在吸毒、发生性关系这个事实
I love the fact that they were all doing drugs and having sex with
彼此。
each other.
不。
No.
不。
No.
它包含了所有戏剧性的元素,我的意思是,这是一个引人入胜的故事,因为他们拥有一切。
It had every part of the dramas of like a it it it mean, it's a gripping story because they had everything there.
他们用什么程序来报税?
They did their taxes with, like what what was the the program that they used?
QuickBooks。
QuickBooks.
QuickBooks。
QuickBooks.
他们处理着数十亿美元的资金。
They're dealing with billions of dollars.
我不明白为什么我觉得‘多聚体’这个词这么好笑。
I don't know why I think the word polycule is so funny.
但‘多聚体’?
But Polycule?
他们管那种关系叫这个,就像多角恋但又像封闭的分子一样组合在一起。
That was what they, like, what you call a relationship, like a poly but closed mall like poly amorous molecule put together.
哦,我明白了。
Oh, I see.
所以他们说,这就是我们的多聚体。
So they were like, this is our polycule.
所以他们一共有九个人,而且都是多角恋关系。
So there's nine of them and they're poly
或者十个人,反正差不多。
Or 10 of them or whatever.
随便吧。
Whatever.
是的。
Yeah.
你就管这个叫多角关系。
And you call that a polycule.
我觉得特别搞笑的是,这个词曾经在硅谷流行成一个梗,我觉得特别好笑。
And I thought that was the funny like, that became like a meme in Silicon Valley for a while that I thought was hilarious.
你显然希望有足够的监管来防止这种情况发生,但他们却说
You clearly want enough regulation that that can't happen, but they're like
嗯,我并不反对这种情况发生。
Well, I'm not against that happening.
我反对的是他们对钱的处理方式。
I'm against them doing what they did with the money.
这正是我的意思。
That's what I mean.
多角关系其实挺好的。
Polycule's kinda fine.
去吧。
Go for it.
不。
No.
不。
No.
我的意思是,你希望有足够的监管,这样FTX就不会把所有的客户资金都亏掉。
I mean, you want enough thing that, like, FTX can't lose all of its Yes.
储户的钱。
Depositors' money.
是的。
Yes.
但我认为这里有一个重要的观点,那就是你有这么多其他的监管,但它们并没有保护我们安全。
But but I think there's an important point here, which is you have all of this other regulation that people and and it didn't keep us safe.
而最基本的一点,就是我们得做这件事。
And the basic thing, which was like, you know, let's do that.
那并不是人们谈论的所有加密货币内容。
That was not all of the crypto stuff people were talking about.
是的。
Yes.
我的意思是,真正令人着迷的加密货币是比特币。
I mean, the the real fascinating crypto is Bitcoin.
对我来说,我认为它最有可能成为一种普遍可行的货币。
To me, I mean, that's the one that I think has the most likely possibility of becoming a universal viable currency.
而且它的总量是有限的。
And it's, you know, it's limited in the amount that there can be.
你知道,人们用自己的设备来挖矿,这对我来说非常有趣,我尤其喜欢它已经被实现的事实,至少有一些人,比如我曾邀请安德烈亚斯·安东opoulos做客播客,他谈论它时,就是在亲身实践。
It's, you know, you you people mine it with their own it's like that to me is very fascinating, and I love the fact that it's been implemented and that at least some like, I've had Andreas Antonopoulos on the podcast, and he's when he talks about it, he's living it.
他花掉了自己所有的钱。
He's spending all of his money.
他收到的所有报酬都是比特币。
Everything he gets paid is in Bitcoin.
他用比特币支付房租。
He pays his rent in Bitcoin.
他的一切开销都用比特币。
Everything he does is in Bitcoin.
几年前,我参与创办了一个叫Worldcoin的项目。
I I helped start a project called Worldcoin a few years ago.
因此,我得以更深入地了解这个领域。
That's and so I've I've gotten to, like, learn more about the space.
我出于同样的原因对它感到兴奋。
I'm excited about it for the same reasons.
我也对比特币感到兴奋。
I'm excited about Bitcoin too.
但我认为,拥有一个不受任何政府控制的全球性货币,是一个极其合理且重要的进步,没错。
But I think this idea that we have a global currency that is outside of the control of any government is a super logical and important step Yes.
在技术发展路径上。
On the tech tree.
是的。
Yeah.
同意。
Agreed.
我的意思是,为什么政府要控制货币呢?
I mean, why should the government control currency?
我的意思是,政府应该专注于处理所有紧迫的环境、社会基础设施、外交政策和经济问题,这些才是我们为了建立一个和平、繁荣、平等且公正的社会所需要治理的事务。
I mean, the the government should be dealing with all the pressing environmental, social infrastructure issues, foreign policy issues, economic issues, the things that we need to be governed in order to have a peaceful and prosperous society that's equal and equitable.
你觉得
What do you
AGI出现后,货币和金融会发生什么变化?
think happens to money and currency after AGI?
我确实思考过这个问题,因为我觉得,当货币数字化后,瓶颈在于获取渠道。
I I've wondered about that because I feel like with money, especially when money goes digital, the bottleneck is access.
如果我们达到一个所有信息都自由共享、没有秘密、没有界限、没有国界、能读取思想、完全掌握你做过的一切和每个人说过的一切的状态。
If we get to a point where all information is just freely shared everywhere, there are no secrets, there are no boundaries, there are no borders, we're reading minds, We have complete access to all of the information of everything you've ever done, everything everyone's ever said.
没有任何隐藏的秘密。
There's no hidden secrets.
那么钱是什么?
What is money then?
钱就是这种数字化的东西。
Money is this digital thing.
那么,你如何拥有它?
Well, how can you possess it?
如果根本没有任何瓶颈,你如何拥有这个数字化的东西?
How can you possess this digital thing if there is literally no bottleneck?
没有人能阻止任何人访问任何信息,因为本质上,它只是由一和零组成的。
There's no barriers to anyone accessing any information because essentially, it's just ones and zeros.
是的。
Yeah.
而且我认为,从信息的角度来看,这种说法是有道理的。
And I mean, another way think I the information frame makes sense.
另一种看法是,钱是一种交易劳动或交易有限的有形资产(如土地、房屋等)的方式。
Another way is that, like, money is, like, a sort of way to trade labor or to trade, like, a limited number of hard assets, like land and houses and whatever.
如果你想象一个智力劳动唾手可得、极其廉价的世界,嗯。
And if you think about a world where, like, intellectual labor is just readily available and super cheap Mhmm.
那就会非常不同。
Then that's somehow very different.
我认为,总有一些商品我们希望它们稀缺且昂贵,但只有那些我们希望稀缺昂贵的商品和服务才会保持这种状态。
I I think there will always be goods that we want to be scarce and expensive, but it'll only be those goods that we want to be scarce and expensive that's in services that still are.
所以在这样的世界里,我认为钱只是一个非常奇特的概念。
And so money in a world like that, I think, is just a it's a very curious idea.
是的。
Yeah.
它会变成一种不同的东西。
It becomes a different thing.
我的意思是,它不再是装在袋子里的黄金或皮囊里的东西,带着那些东西大概没什么用。
I mean, it's not a bag of gold than a leather pouch that you're carrying around Not gonna do much good, probably.
这没什么用。
It's not gonna do much good.
但问题来了,这笔钱该如何分配,我们如何避免出现一种可怕的马克思主义社会,其中只有一个极权政府
But then the question becomes, how is that money distributed, and how do we avoid some horrible Marxist society where there's one totalitarian government
那就别这么做了。
that Just don't it out.
是的。
Yeah.
那会很糟糕。
That would be bad.
我认为,我目前最好的想法是——也许还有更好的方案——如果我们是对的,但我们也可能错了很多地方。
I I think you've gotta, like my my current best idea, and maybe there's something better, is I think you like, if if we are right a lot of reasons we could be wrong.
但如果我们是对的,即少数几个AGI系统将成为世界上主要影响力的核心,那么我认为,你不仅需要重新分配金钱,还需要重新分配访问权,让人们能够自行决定如何使用和治理它。
But if we are right that, like, a the AGI systems, of which there will be a few, become the high order bits of sort of influence whatever in the world, I think you do need, like, not to just redistribute the money, but the access so that people can make their own decisions about how to use it and how to govern it.
如果你有一个想法,你就能这么做。
And if you've got one idea, you get to do this.
如果我有一个想法,我就有权利去做这件事。
And if I've got one idea, I get to do that.
我拥有对我这部分资源的完全自主权,可以随意使用。
And I have, like, rights to basically do whatever I want with my part of it.
如果我提出的点子比你好,社会就会奖励我;反之亦然。
And if I come up with better ideas than you, I get rewarded by for that by whatever the society is or vice versa.
对。
Yeah.
你知道吗,那些强硬派人士,反对福利和任何形式的全民基本收入(UBI)的人,他们真正担心的是人性。
You know, the the hardliners, the people that are against, like, welfare and against any sort of UGI, universal basic income, UBI, what they're what they're really concerned with is human nature.
对吧?
Right?
他们认为,如果你消除了激励机制,只是无偿给人们钱,他们会对此上瘾。
They believe that if you remove incentives, if you just give people free money, they become addicted to it.
他们会变得懒惰。
They become lazy.
但这难道不是人类生物和心理上的一个瓶颈吗?
But isn't that a human biological and psychological bottleneck?
或许通过人工智能与某种神经接口(无论是外部还是内部)的结合,这个问题似乎可以被解决,你可以从根本上——而这变得非常诡异。
And perhaps with the implementation of artificial intelligence combined with some sort of neural interface, whether it's external or internal, it seems like that's a problem that can be solved, that you can essentially and this is where it gets really spooky.
你可以重新设计人类的生物系统,消除所有这些源于人类原始部落、狩猎采集时代奖励机制的问题——比如嫉妒、欲望、嫉妒,所有这些在涉及金钱、地位和社会地位时都会出现的因素。如果这些都能被技术消除,我们或许就能成为人类物种可能进化的下一个版本。
You can reengineer the human biological system, and you can remove all of these problems that people have that are essentially problems that date back to human reward systems when we were tribal people, hunter gatherer people, whether it's jealousy, lust, envy, all these all these variables that come into play when you're dealing with money and status and social status, if those are eliminated with technology and essentially be we become a next version of what the human species is possible.
你看,我们和部落社会已经相距甚远了,没错。
Like, look, we're very, very far removed from tribal Yeah.
那些原始洞穴人的残酷社会。
Brutal societies of cave people.
我们都同意,这种生活方式要好得多。
We all agree that this is a way better way to live.
这要安全得多。
It's a it's a it's it's way safer.
你知道,我昨晚在脱口秀俱乐部聊到这个,因为我和我妻子在讨论DNA,她说,你看,每个人都是洞穴人的后代,这想法其实挺吓人的——这里每个人的存在,都源于洞穴人。
You know, we were like, I I was talking about this at my comedy club last night because we're because my wife was we were talking about DNA, and my wife was saying that, look, everybody came from cave people, which is kind of a fucked up thought that everyone here is here because of cave people.
但这些仍然存在于我们的DNA中。
Well, that all that's still in our DNA.
所有这些奖励机制都可能被劫持,仅仅通过给人们钱就能做到。
All that's still and these reward systems can be hijacked, and they can be hijacked by just giving people money.
你不必工作。
And, like, you don't have to work.
你不必做任何事。
You don't have to do anything.
你不必有抱负。
You don't have to have ambition.
你只会有钱,然后躺着吸毒。
You'll just have money and just just lay around and do drugs.
这就是人们担心给人们无条件发钱的原因。
That's what the that's the fear that people have of giving people free money.
但如果我们能真正地改造人类的生物载体,消除所有这些陷阱,如果能通过技术让人类实现觉醒——也许‘觉醒’这个词不太准确,但能把人类提升到一个层次,让这些问题不再成为困境,因为它们可以通过编程轻松解决。
But if we can figure out how to literally engineer the human biological vehicle and remove all those pitfalls, if we can enlighten people technologically maybe enlighten is the wrong word, but but advance the human species to the point where those are no longer dilemmas because those are easily solvable through coding.
通过增强人类生物系统,或许将多巴胺水平提升到愤怒、恐惧和仇恨不可能存在的程度,这些问题就很容易解决。
They're easily solvable through enhancing the human biological system, perhaps raising dopamine levels to the point where anger and fear and hate are impossible.
它们根本不存在。
They don't exist.
我的意思是,如果每个人都服用摇头丸,还会发生多少场战争?
And if, I mean, if you just had everyone on Molly, how many wars would there be?
一场战争都不会有。
There'd be zero wars.
我的意思是,如果你能让地球上所有人都在同一天服用一次摇头丸,那将是一件了不起的事。
I mean, I think if you could get everyone on Earth to all do Molly once on the same day, that'd be a tremendous thing.
确实会是。
It would be.
如果你让地球上每个人每天都服用摇头丸,那将是一场真正的灾难。
If you got everybody on Earth to do Molly every day, that would be a real loss.
但如果他们服用低剂量的摇头丸,让人人都充满爱与亲切,不再有竞争的担忧,那会怎样?
But what if they did a low dose of Molly where you just get to, where everybody greets people with love and affection, and there's no longer a concern about competition.
相反,人们关注的是对创新、创造和创造力的着迷。
Instead, the concern is about the fascination of innovation and create creation and creativity.
天啊,我们剩下的时间都可以只谈这个话题。
Man, we could talk the rest of the time about this one topic.
这太有趣了。
It's it's so interesting.
我认为,如果我能按下按钮消除所有人类的奋斗和冲突,我首先不会这么做。
I I I think if I could, like, push a button to, like, remove all human striving and conflict, I wouldn't do it, first of all.
我觉得这是我们的故事和经历中非常重要的部分。
Like, I think that's a very important part of our story and experience.
而且,从我们自身的生物历史以及我们对人工智能的了解来看,非常简单的目标系统、适应性函数、奖励模型——无论你怎么称呼它——都能带来令人惊叹的结果。
And, and also, I think we can see both from our own biological history and also from what we know about AI, that very simple goal systems, fitness functions, reward models, whatever you want to call it, lead to incredibly impressive results.
如果生物的本能是生存和繁衍,看看它如何推动我们社会走到今天这一步。
You know, if the biological imperative is survive and reproduce, look how far that has somehow gotten us as a society.
所有这一切——我们拥有的所有技术、建筑以及其他东西——都是在一个极其简单的目标和一个极其复杂的环境中产生的,最终促使人们在某种程度上实现这一生物本能,并渴望彼此留下深刻印象。
All of this, all this stuff we have, all this technology, this building, whatever else, like, that that got here through an extremely simple goal in a very complex environment, leading to all of the richness and complexity of people fulfilling this biological imperative to some degree and wanting to impress each other.
所以我认为,进化适应性是一个简单却无比强大的理念。
So I think, like, evolutionary fitness is a simple and unbelievably powerful idea.
那么,你能仔细剔除掉这种理念的每一个具体表现吗?
Now, could you carefully edit out every individual manifestation of that?
也许可以。
Maybe.
但我并不想生活在一个所有人都像傀儡一样,整天迷迷糊糊嗑药的社会里。
But I I don't wanna, like, live in a society of drones where everybody is just sort of, like, on molly all the time either.
这显然不是正确的答案。
Like, that doesn't seem like the right answer.
我希望我们能继续追求目标。
Like, I want us to continue to strive.
我希望我们能不断突破边界,走出去探索。
I want us to continue to push back the frontier and go out and explore.
事实上,我认为社会在这些方面已经有点偏离轨道了。
And I actually think something's already gotten a little off track in society about all of that.
我们啊,我不知道。
And we're I don't know.
我觉得,我原本以为等我到了老家伙抱怨年轻人的年纪时,自己会更老一些。
I think, like, I'm I don't I thought I'd be older by the time I felt like the old guy complaining about the youth.
但我觉得我们失去了一些东西,我认为我们需要更多的奋斗,也许更多的冒险,更多的探索精神。
But I think we've lost something, and I think that we need more striving, maybe more risk taking, more, like, explorer spirit.
你所说的‘我们失去了一些东西’是什么意思?
What do you mean by you think we've lost something?
我的理解是,从我自己的视角来看,是这样的。
I mean, here's like a version of it very much from my own lens.
我长期担任初创企业投资人,过去最优秀的初创企业创始人往往都是二十出头、二十多岁,甚至接近三十岁。
I was a startup investor for a long time, and it often was the case that the very best startup founders were in their early or mid twenties or late twenties, maybe even.
但现在他们的年龄普遍大了很多。
And now they skew much older.
我想知道的是,在当今世界,那些顶尖的25岁创始人在哪里?
And what I wanna know is in the world today, where are the super great 25 year old founders?
确实有几个。
And there are a few.
说一个都没有是不公平的,但数量比以前少多了。
It's not fair to say there are none, but there are less than there were before.
我认为这对社会各个层面都是不利的。
And I think that's bad for society at all levels.
比如,科技公司创始人是一个例子,但还有那些去创造新事物、坚持不受欢迎或有争议想法的人,我们需要这样的人来推动进步。
Mean, like, tech company founders is one example, but like, people who go off and create something new, who push on a disagreeable or controversial idea, we need that to drive forward.
我们需要这种精神。
We need that sort of spirit.
我们需要人们能够提出想法,即使错了,也不会因此被社会排斥,或者不会因为这样就被‘取消’或遭遇其他类似情况。
We need people to be able to, you know, put out ideas and be wrong, and not be ostracized from society for it, or not have it be like, you know, something that they get canceled for, or or whatever.
我们需要人们能够为了追求自己相信的重要科学目标而承担职业风险,即使这些目标可能不会成功,或者听起来很争议、很糟糕。
We need people to be able to take a risk in their career because they believe in some important scientific quest that may not work out, or may sound like really controversial or bad or whatever.
当然,当我们刚开始创办OpenAI时,我们说我们认为AGI是真实存在的,也许实现它可能性很低,但如果成功,其意义将无比重大。
You know, certainly when we started OpenAI, and we were saying, we think this AGI thing is is real and could be, you know, could be done unlikely, but so important if it happens.
我们领域里所有年长的科学家都说,那些人不负责任。
And all of the older scientists in our field were saying, those people are irresponsible.
你不该谈论AGI。
You shouldn't talk about AGI.
他们就像在兜售骗局,或者说是鲁莽行事,这会导致AI寒冬。
That's like, you know, they're like selling a scam, or they're like, you know, they're kind of being reckless, and it's gonna lead to an AGI winter.
我们说我们相信。
Like, we said we believed.
我们当时就说,我们知道这可能性不大,但这是一个重要的追求。
We said at the time, we knew it was unlikely, but it was an important quest.
我们决定去追求它,管他什么反对者。
And we were gonna go after it and kinda like fuck the haters.
这对社会来说很重要。
That's important to a society.
你认为这种现象的根源是什么?
What do you think is the origin?
我的意思是,你为什么觉得现在年轻人做这类事情的比十年前或二十年前少了呢?
Like, what why do you think there are less young people that are doing those kind of things now as opposed to a decade or two ago?
我对这个话题非常感兴趣。
I am so interested in that topic.
我真想把责任归咎于教育体系,但我必须说,我认为它与社会以各种奇怪的方式相互作用。
I'm tempted to blame the education system, but I assure that I I think that, like, interacts with society in all of these strange ways.
这很有趣。
It's funny.
最近我的推特信息流里到处都在讨论,比如,是什么导致了过去几十年美国男性睾酮水平的下降。
There was this, like, thing all over my Twitter feed recently trying to talk about, like, what, you know, what, like, what caused the drop in testosterone in American men over the last few decades.
但没人说,这是一个症状,而不是原因。
And no one was like, this is a symptom, not a cause.
每个人都说,是微塑料的问题。
And everyone was like, oh, it's the microplastics.
是避孕药的问题。
It's the birth control pills.
就是各种原因。
It's the whatever.
就是各种原因。
It's the whatever.
就是各种原因。
It's the whatever.
我觉得这根本不是这个话题最重要的部分,但从社会学角度看,它让我觉得挺有意思——大家只讨论是什么导致了这种现象,却没人提这可能是社会某种变化的结果。
And I think this is like, not at all the most important piece of this topic, but it was just interesting to me, sociologically that there was there was only talk about it being about what what caused it, not about it being an an effect of some sort of change in society.
但导致这种现象的原因不是也有生物学上的解释吗?比如我们谈到的邻苯二甲酸盐、微塑料、农药这些环境因素,它们确实是真实存在的。
But isn't what caused it well, there's biological reasons why like, when we talk about the phthalates and microplastic pesticides, environmental factors, those are real.
当然。
Totally.
而且我再次强调,我对这个领域完全外行。
And I don't like again, I'm so far out of my depth and expertise here.
让我觉得有趣的是,大家只谈论生物因素,却没人提到社会本身可能对这种现象产生某种影响。
This was it was just interesting to me that the only talk was about, like, biological factors and not that somehow society can have some sort of effect on
当然,社会肯定有影响。
Well, society most certainly has an effect.
你知道这个问题的答案吗?
Do you know what the answer to this is?
我不知道。
I I don't.
我的意思是,我曾经和莎娜·斯旺医生做过一期播客,她写了《倒计时》这本书,书中详细探讨了石化产品引入后睾酮水平下降、流产率上升的现象,这些物质都是普遍存在的内分泌干扰物,当人们进行血液检测时,会发现惊人的比例。
I mean, I I've I've had a a podcast with doctor Shana Swan who wrote the book Countdown, and that is all about the introduction of petrochemical products and the correlating drop in testosterone, rise in miscarriages, the fact that these are ubiquitous endocrine disruptors that when they do blood tests on people, they find some insane number.
高达百分之九十以上的人体内都含有邻苯二甲酸盐。
It's like ninety plus percent of people have phthalates in
他们的体内。
their system.
而且我很欣赏你用金属杯。
And you I appreciate the metal cups.
是的。
Yeah.
我们尽量去减少它,但说实话,你还是在接触。
We we we try to mitigate it as much as possible, but, I mean, you're getting it.
如果你用微波炉加热食物,你就是在摄入它。
If you're microwaving food, you're you're fucking getting it.
你就是在摄入它。
You're get you're just getting it.
如果你吃加工食品,你就是在摄入它。
You're get if you eat processed food, you're getting it.
你的饮食中会摄入一定量的微塑料,据估计,这个量高达一张信用卡那么多的微塑料。
You're getting a certain amount of microplastics in your diet, and estimates have been that it's as high as a credit card of microplastics
就像漂浮在你体内。
Like floating around.
在你的身体里。
In your body.
你每周摄入的量相当于一张信用卡那么多。
You consume a credit card of that a week.
哇哦。
Woah.
真正的担忧在于哺乳动物,因为当研究人员在哺乳动物身上进行实验并引入邻苯二甲酸盐时,一个明显的关联现象就是这些动物的阴囊会缩小。
The real concern is with mammals because the introductions when they've done studies with mammals and they've introduced phthalates into their body, there's a correlating one thing that happens is the the these animals, their taint shrink.
就是阴囊,没错。
Like, the taint of yeah.
哺乳动物中,雄性的阴囊比雌性大50%到100%。
The mammal, when you look at males, it's 50% to a 100% larger than the females.
当雄性体内引入邻苯二甲酸盐后,阴囊开始缩小,阴茎变小,睾丸萎缩,精子数量下降。
With the introduction of thallies on the males, the taints start shrinking, the penises shrink, the testicles shrink, sperm count shrinks.
因此,我们知道这些化学物质与人体之间的相互作用存在直接的生物学关联。
So we know there's a direct biological connection between the the this these chemicals and how they interact with with bodies.
所以这是一个真实存在的问题。
So that's that's a real one.
而且,我们使用的石油化学产品和塑料的数量也与此相关。
And it's also the amount of petrochemical products that we have, the amount of plastics that we use.
它是我们文化、社会和文明中不可或缺的一部分。
It's it is such an integral part of our culture and also our society, our civilization.
它无处不在。
It's everywhere.
我一直在想,当这些具有领地意识的猿类进化成这种先进的新物种时,消除导致最多问题的因素之一——睾酮,难道不是最好的方法之一吗?
And I've wondered if you think about how these territorial apes evolve into this new advanced species, wouldn't one of the very best ways be to get rid of one of the things that causes the most problems, which is testosterone?
我们需要睾酮。
We need testosterone.
我们需要有攻击性的男人和保护者。
We're we need aggressive men and protectors.
但为什么我们需要他们?
But why do we need them?
我们需要他们,因为存在其他邪恶的具有攻击性的男人。
We need them because there's other aggressive men that are evil.
对吧?
Right?
所以我们需要保护者来保护我们免受自身伤害。
So we need protectors from ourselves.
我们需要善良、强大的人来保护我们,免受邪恶、强大的人的伤害。
We need the good, strong people to protect us from the bad, strong people.
但如果我们正在与科技融合,而科技又是我们生活中无法回避的一部分,它无处不在——你正在使用它,你拥有万物互联,你的微波炉、电视、电脑,你使用的一切都连接着网络。
But if we're in the process of integrating with technology, if technology is an inescapable part of our life, if it is everywhere, you're using it, you have the Internet of everything that's in your microwave and your television, your computers, everything you use.
随着时间推移,科技将越来越多地融入你的生活。
As time goes on, that will be more and more a part of your life.
随着这些塑料物质被引入人体生物系统,你正看到该物种雄性出现女性化趋势。
And as these plastics are introduced into the human biological system, you're seeing a feminization of the males of the species.
你正看到出生率的下降。
You're seeing a downfall in birth rate.
你正看到所有这些相互关联的因素,它们正引导我们走向一种更和平、更少暴力、更少攻击性、更少以自我为中心的状态。
You're seeing all these correlating factors that would sort of lead us to become this more peaceful, less violent, less aggressive, less ego driven thing.
而世界确实在不断朝这个方向发展。
Which the world is definitely becoming all the time.
我当然支持减少暴力。
And I'm all for less violence, obviously.
但我并不关注。
But I don't look.
显然,睾酮有很多优点,但也有一些不良倾向。
Obviously, testosterone has many great things to say for it and some bad tendencies too.
但我不认为,如果我们把这一点排除在外,仅仅说一个有着某种精神的世界——比如,我们会保护自己。
But I don't think a world if we if we leave that out of the equation and just say, like, a world that has a a spirit that, you know, we're gonna defend ourselves.
我们会找到方法,保护自己、我们的族群和社会走向未来,我认为这种冲动很重要,而你完全可以通过其他方式实现这一点。
We're going to ex we're going to find a way to, like, protect ourselves and our tribe and our society into this future, which you can get with lots of other ways, I think that's an important impulse.
但更重要的是,我想说的是,回到年轻人创始人的问题上——他们在哪里?
More than that, though, what I meant is about if we go back to the issue of, like, where are the young founders?
为什么我们没有更多的年轻人创始人?
Why don't we have why don't we have more of those?
我认为这并不仅仅局限于科技创业行业。
And I don't think it's just the tech startup industry.
我认为你也可以对年轻科学家或其他许多类别这样说。
I think you could say that about like, young scientists, or many other categories.
那些可能只是我最熟悉的领域。
Those are maybe just the ones that I know the best.
在任何程度的技术世界中,我仍然认为,从某种意义上说,我们必须继续沿着这条曲线前进。
In a world with any amount of technology, I still think we we've got to it is our destiny in some sense to stay on this on this curve.
我们仍需去探索下一个突破,以及下一个高峰之后的东西。
And we still need to go figure out what's next and after the next hill and after the next hill.
我的看法是,这里正在发生某种长期的社会变迁,我认为这让我们变得更不快乐。
And it would be my perception is that there is some long term societal change happening here, and I think it makes us less happy too.
对。
Right.
它可能会让我们更不快乐。
It may make us less happy.
但我想说的是,如果人类物种真的与技术融合,那么促进这一过程的一个绝佳方式或许是
But what I'm saying is if the human species does integrate with technology, wouldn't a great way to facilitate that to be to kind
的
of
feminize 原始的猿类,并且弱化其作用
feminize the the primal apes and to sort of downplay the role
你是说,比如,科技应该让世界中的 AGI 邻苯二甲酸盐增多吗?
You mean, like, the tech like, should the AGI phthalates in the world?
我不知道是不是 AGI。
I don't know if it's AGI.
我的意思是,也许这仅仅是技术发展的必然结果,尤其是我们所使用的这种含有大量塑料的技术。
I mean, maybe it's just an inevitable inevitable consequence of technology because especially the type of technology that we use, which does have so much plastic in it.
此外,还有食品系统中的技术、防腐剂,以及我们用来确保人们不饿死的各种东西。
And then on top of that, the technology that's involved in food food systems, preservatives, all these different things that we use to make sure that people don't starve to death.
我们在这一方面取得了巨大的进步。
We've made incredible strides in that.
这个国家里很少有人会饿死。
There are very few people in this country that starve to death.
是的。
Yeah.
这不是主要问题,但暴力是主要问题。
It is not an it's not a primary issue, but violence is a primary issue.
但我们对暴力的担忧,以及对睾酮、强壮男性和有权势者的态度,仅仅是因为我们需要保护自己免受他人伤害。
But our our concerns about violence are and our concerns about testosterone and strong men and powerful people is only because We need to protect against We need to protect protect against others
真的吗?
Is that true?
同样的事情。
Same things.
这真的是唯一的原因吗?
Is that really the only reason?
当然。
Sure.
我的意思是,有多少极其暴力的女性在外面领导帮派?
I mean, how many, like, incredibly violent women are out there running gangs?
不。
No.
不。
No.
那部分肯定如此。
That part for sure.
是的。
Yeah.
显然没多少。
Clearly not very many.
我意思是,社会重视阳刚之气,难道就只是因为这个原因吗?
I what I meant more is is that the only reason that society values, like, strong masculinity?
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得是的。
I think so.
我认为这是一种生物本能。
I think it's a biological imperative.
对吧?
Right?
我认为这种生物本能是因为我们过去必须抵御外来部落、捕食者和动物,我们需要一个比大多数人更强壮的人来保护大家。
And I think that biological imperative is because we used to have to defend against incoming tribes and predators and animals, and and we we needed someone who was stronger than most to defend the rest.
这就是军队的概念。
And, like, that's the concept of the military.
这就是为什么海豹突击队的训练如此艰难。
That's why Navy SEAL training is so difficult.
我们希望最强壮的人站在最前沿。
We want the strongest of the strong to be at the tip of the spear.
但这只是因为世界上确实存在一些坏人。
But that's only because there's people like that out there that are bad.
如果通用人工智能以及某种改变人类生物结构的设备得以实现,使得这种担忧不复存在。
If general artificial general intelligence and the implementation of some sort of a device that changes the biological structure of human beings to the point where that is no longer a concern.
比如,如果你是我,我是你,而我因为技术知道这一点,暴力就不可能发生。
Like, if you are me and I am you and I know this because of technology, violence is impossible.
是的。
Yeah.
听好了。
Look.
如果这种情况沿着科幻路径彻底发展下去,我们都融合成一个单一的、全球性的、普遍的某种意识,那么是的,你就不再需要了。
By the time if this goes all the way down the sci fi path and we're all, like, merged into this one single, like, planetary universal whatever consciousness, then then then, yes, you don't.
你不需要睾酮。
You don't need testosterone.
需要睾酮,但如果我们
Need testosterone, but you still if we
可以通过其他方式繁殖。
can reproduce through other methods.
这就是外星人假说。
Like, this is the alien hypothesis.
对吧?
Right?
比如,为什么他们看起来那么瘦弱,没有性别特征,还有那些大头和小小的……
Like, why do they look so spindly and without any gender and, you know, when they have these big heads and tiny
嘴巴?
mouths?
体力。
Physical strength.
他们不需要体力。
They don't need physical strength.
他们有一种某种心灵感应的交流方式。
They they have some sort of a telepathic way of communicating.
他们大概不需要用嘴巴发出声音,也不需要我们那种征服和传播DNA的冲动。
They probably don't need sounds with their mouths, and they don't need this urge that we have to conquer and to spread our DNA.
像这样,人们做的很多事都是源于我们还是领地性猿类时建立的奖励机制。
Like, that's so much of what people do is these reward systems that were established when we were territorial apes.
有一个
There's a
我有个问题:如果你造出通用人工智能,它却决定其实我们不需要扩张,你能彻底消除这种本能吗?
question to me about how much you can ever get rid of rid of that if you make an AGI, and it decides, actually, we don't need to expand.
我们不需要更多领土。
We don't need more territory.
我们就只是,嗯,感到满足。
We're just, like, happy.
到这个时候,你、我、它,所有的一切都融合在一起了。
We, at this point, you, me, it, the whole thing altogether, all merged in.
我们对待在地球上感到满足。
We're happy here on Earth.
我们不需要再变大了。
We don't need to get any bigger.
我们不需要繁殖。
We don't need to reproduce.
我们不需要成长。
We don't need to grow.
我们就坐在这里运行。
We're just gonna sit here and run.
啊,这听起来像是一种无聊的生活。
A, that sounds like a boring life.
我不同意这一点。
I don't agree with that.
我不认为这是合乎逻辑的结论。
I don't agree that that would be the logical conclusion.
我认为合乎逻辑的结论是,它们会寻找那些无法克服的问题和前沿领域,是的。
I think the logical conclusion would be they would look for problems and frontiers that are insurmountable Yeah.
对于我们目前的存在来说,比如星系间的通信和运输。
To our current existence, like intergalactic communication and transportation.
当它遇到另一个星系的AGI时,会发生什么?
What happens when it meets another AGI, the other galaxy over?
如果它遇到一个领先一百万年的AGI,会发生什么?
What happens if it meets an AGI that's a million years more advanced?
或者,那会是什么样子?
Or that Like, what does that look like?
嗯。
Yeah.
我经常在想,如果我们是所谓的生物毛毛虫,创造出我们正在制造的电子蝴蝶,而我们现在正处在做茧的过程中,却根本不知道自己在做什么。
That's what I've I've often wondered if we are I I call ourselves the biological caterpillars that create the electronic butterfly that we're making a cocoon right now, we don't even know what we're doing.
我认为这还与消费主义有关。
And I think it's also tied into consumerism.
因为消费主义究竟做了什么?
Because what does consumerism do?
消费主义推动了更新、更好的产品的创造,因为你总想要最新、最棒的。
Consumerism facilitates the creation of newer and better things because you always want the newest, latest, greatest.
因此,汽车、电脑、手机以及所有这些不同领域,包括医学科学,都拥有了更先进的技术。
So you have more advanced technology in automobiles and computers and cell phones and all of these different things, including medical science.
这确实全都是对的。
That's all for sure true.
你刚才说的时候,我一直在反思,我不像你那样乐观,认为我们能够或甚至应该超越我们的生物基础到你所认为的那种程度。
The thing I was, like, reflecting on as you were saying that is I don't think I I'm not as optimistic that we can or even should overcome our biological base to the degree that I think you think we can.
而且,再往回退一步,我认为社会最幸福的状态是,在同一人或不同人身上,都能存在强大的女性气质和强大的男性气质。
And, you know, to even go back one further level, like, I I think I think society is happiest where there's, like, roles for strong femininity and strong masculinity in the same people and in different people.
而且,我认为这些根深蒂固的东西很难轻易被摒弃,同时还能维持一个有效运转的系统。
And and I don't, like, and I don't think a lot of these, like, deep seated things are gonna be able to get pushed aside very easily and still have a system that works.
当然,我们可以想象,如果有一天机器有了意识,那会是什么样子。
Like, sure, we can't really think about what if there were consciousness in a machine someday or whatever, what that would be like.
也许我只是思维太狭隘了,但我认为我们身上有一些东西以一种极其深刻的方式起作用。
And maybe maybe I'm just like thinking too small mindedly, but I think there is something about us that has worked in a super deep way.
而进化花了大量的探索空间才达到今天这一步。
And it took evolution a lot of search space to get here.
但我不会轻易地忽视它。
But I wouldn't discount it too easily.
但你不觉得原始人也会对生活、久坐生活方式、坐在电脑前以及除了文字外不互相交流得出同样的逻辑结论吗?
But don't you think that cave people would probably have those same logical conclusions about life and sedentary lifestyle and sitting in front of a computer and not interacting with each other except through text?
嗯
Well
我的意思是,你所说的不正是对的吗?
I mean, isn't that, like, what you're saying is correct?
那么,你觉得
How different do
你认为我们今天的动机,以及真正带给我们真实快乐的东西,和原始人在深层的生理构造上有多大不同?
you think our motivations are today and kinda what really brings us genuine joy and how we're how we're wired at some deep level differently than cave people?
显然,其他很多方面都改变了。
Clearly, lots of other things have changed.
我们有了更好、好得多的工具。
We've got better much better tools.
嗯。
Mhmm.
但你认为这真的有那么大不同吗?
But how different do you think it really is?
我认为问题在于,从基因层面来看,本质上并没有太大差异,这些奖励系统我们都在与之互动,无论是自我认同,是的。
I think that's the problem is that genetically, at the base level, there's not much difference and that these reward systems are all they're we interact with all of them, whether it's ego Yeah.
欲望,是的。
Lust Yeah.
激情、愤怒、怒火、嫉妒,所有这些不同的东西都
Passion, fury, anger, jealousy, all these different things that
你认为会有一些人上传后把这些都删掉。
And you think will be some people will upload and edit those out.
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为我们担心失去这种作为人的本质特征,即我们应当始终拥有冲突与挣扎,因为冲突与挣扎正是推动进步的方式,这确实是正确的。
I think that our concern with losing this aspect of what it means to be a person, this like, the idea that we should always have conflict and struggle because conflict and struggle is how we facilitate progress, which is true.
对吧?
Right?
而对抗邪恶,正是让善良变得更强大、更伟大的方式,如果善良最终获胜的话。
And combating evil is how the good gets greater and stronger if the good wins.
但我的担忧是,这一切都基于一个假设,即我们当前的生物系统是正确且最优的。
But my concern is that that is all predicated on the idea that the biological system that we have right now is correct and optimal.
我认为,我们当前面临的抑郁、焦虑情绪加剧,以及人们普遍感受到的意义缺失和存在主义焦虑,很大程度上是因为人类作为生物体的现实,与我们所创造的世界难以融合。
And I think one of the things that we're dealing with with the heightened states of depression and anxiety and the lack of meaning and existential angst that people experience, a lot of that is because the biological reality of being a human animal doesn't really integrate that well with this world that we've created.
这毫无疑问。
That's for sure.
是的。
Yeah.
我怀疑,解决这个问题的方法或许不是在你现有的生物载体中寻找意义,而是通过工程手段,将系统中那些有问题的方面彻底消除,从而创造出真正开悟的生命。
And I wonder if the solution to that is not find ways to find meaning with the biological, you know, vessel that you've been given, but rather engineer those aspects that are problematic out of the system to create a truly enlightened being.
比如,如果你今天问一个人,三年内世界上将不再有任何战争的概率有多大?
Like, one of the things if you ask someone today, what are the odds that in three years, there will be no war in the world?
那是零。
That's zero.
就像,没人这么想。
Like, thinks no.
在人类历史上,从未有过没有战争的时期。
There's never been a time in human history where we haven't had war.
如果你必须说,我们这个物种最大的问题是什么?
If you had to say, what is our number one problem as a species?
我会说,我们最大的问题是战争。
Well, I would say our number one problem is is war.
我们最大的问题是,认为把一群互不相识的人派去杀害另一群因政府或国界线而对立的人,是完全可以接受的。
Our number one problem is this idea that it's okay to send massive groups of people who don't know each other to go murder massive groups of people that are somehow opposed because of the government, because of lines in the sand.
这显然是疯狂的。
That's clearly an insane thing.
这确实很疯狂。
It's an insane thing.
你如何消除这一点?
How do you get rid of that?
消除这一点的一种方法是彻底消除所有与资源获取相关的人类奖励机制。
Well, one of the ways you get rid of that is to completely engineer out all the human reward systems that pertain to the acquisition of of resources.
那么那时还剩下什么?
So what's left at that point?
我们是一种新的存在。
Well, we're a new thing.
我认为我们已经变成了一种新的存在。
I think we've become a new thing.
这种新存在想要什么?
And what does that thing do want?
我认为这种新存在可能会希望与其他更先进的新存在互动。
I think that new thing would probably want to interact with other new things that are even more advanced than it.
我相信这一点
I do believe that
科学好奇心可以推动相当大的前沿领域
scientific curiosity can drive quite that that that can be a great frontier
嗯。
Mhmm.
很长一段时间。
For a long time.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为它也可以在很长一段时间内成为伟大的前沿。
I think it can be a great frontier for a long time as well.
我只是在想,我们目前看到的睾酮水平下降,是因为微塑料,而这一点悄然降临在我们身上。
I just wonder if what we're seeing with the drop in testosterone, the because of microplastics, which sort of just snuck up on us.
直到人们开始研究,我们甚至都不知道这是一个问题。
We didn't even know that it was an issue until people started studying.
目前有多确定这就是正在发生的情况?
How how certain is that at this point that that's what's happening?
我不去了,我要去研究一下
I don't I'm gonna go study
这真是个非常好的问题。
after It's it's a very good question.
莎娜·斯旺博士认为,这是主要原因。
Doctor Shana Swan believes that it's the Okay.
导致睾酮水平下降、流产问题和低出生体重的主要因素。
Primary driving factor of the sort of drop in testosterone and all miscarriage issues and low birth weights.
所有这些现象似乎都与环境因素有直接关联。
The the the all those things seem to have a direct there's a seems to be a direct factor environmentally.
我确信还有其他因素。
I'm sure there's other factors too.
睾酮水平下降,事实上研究表明,通过抗阻训练等方式是可以提高男性睾酮水平的。
The the drop in testosterone, I mean, it's it's been shown that you can increase males' testosterone through resistance training and through making there's certain things you can do.
比如,日本的一项研究发现,运动前进行冷水浸泡是其中一个主要方法。
Like, one of the big ones they found through a study in Japan is cold water immersion before exercise.
是的。
Yeah.
它会显著提高睾酮水平。
It radically increases testosterone.
所以你要先进行冷水浸泡,然后再锻炼。
So you cold water immersion and then exercise post that.
是的。
Yeah.
我不知道谁能找到这个。
There I don't let see who can find that.
但这是一个非常有趣的研究领域,我认为这与韧性、抗压能力有关,因为你的身体必须应对这种极端的外部因素,从而进入一种保护状态,激活冷休克蛋白,减少炎症,进而增强身体的内分泌系统。
But it's a it's a fascinating field to study, but I think it has something to do with resilience and resistance and the fact that your body has to combat this external factor that's very extreme that causes the body to go into this state of preservation and the the, the implementation of cold shock proteins and the reduction of inflammation, which also enhances the body's endocrine system.
此外,你每天都要面对这种外部因素,必须变得更加坚韧才能生存下去。
But then on top of that, this imperative that you have to become more resilient to survive this external factor that you've introduced into your life every single day.
显然,有一些方法可以让人变得更强大。
So there's ways, obviously, that you can make a human being more robust.
你知道,我们清楚可以通过力量训练做到这一点,所有这些方法确实能提高睾酮水平。
You know, we know that we can do that through strength training and that all that stuff actually does raise testosterone.
你的饮食也能提高睾酮水平。
Your diet can raise testosterone.
而不良的饮食会降低睾酮,阻碍你的内分泌系统,影响你产生生长激素、褪黑素等各种物质的能力。
And the a poor diet will lower it and will hinder your endocrine system, will hinder your ability to produce growth hormone, melatonin, all all these different factors.
这似乎是我们可以通过决策、选择和努力来修复或至少缓解的问题。
That seems to be something that we can fix in terms or at least mitigate in term with with decisions and choices and effort.
但像这些石油化学产品这样的东西,谢娜·斯万医生在她的书中展示了一张图表,显示在20世纪50年代,当石油化学产品开始广泛用于微波炉、塑料、保鲜膜等各种物品时。
But the fact that these petrochemical prod like, there's a graph that doctor Shana Swan has in her book that shows during the nineteen fifties when they start using petrochemical products in everything, microwave, plastic, saran wrap, all this different stuff.
这些产品的使用与睾酮水平下降之间存在直接相关性,所有数据都吻合得很好。
There's a direct correlation between the implementation and the dip, and it all seems to line up.
这似乎是一个主要因素。
Like, that seems to be a primary factor.
这对雌激素相关的激素也有同等影响吗?
Does that have an equivalent impact on, like, estrogen related hormones?
这是个好问题。
That's a good question.
其中一些化学物质,我知道他们提到的某些物质实际上会增加男性的雌激素。
Some of them actually I know some of these chemicals that they're talking about actually increase estrogen in men.
我不确定,但我确实知道它们会增加流产率。
I don't know, but I do know that it increases miscarriages.
所以我认为它们总体上对人类身体有干扰作用。
So I I just think it's overall disruptive to the human body.
全社会范围内的内分泌系统紊乱,是的。
Societal wide disruption of the endocrine system Yeah.
在很短的时间内。
In a short period of time.
看起来确实很糟糕,当然。
Seems like a just bad and Sure.
难以理解
Difficult to wrap our heads
周围。
around.
污染物和环境毒素,再加上杀虫剂、除草剂以及所有这些其他物质和微塑料。
Pollutants and and environmental toxins on top of the pesticides and herbicides and all these other things and microplastics.
有很多因素导致我们的系统无法正常运作。
There's a lot of factors that are leading our systems to not work well.
但我真的很好奇,我们是不是只是紧紧抓住这副猴子的身体?
But I I just really wonder if this like, are we just clinging on to this monkey body?
我们是不是在决定
Are we deciding that
我喜欢我的猴子身体。
I like my monkey body.
我也喜欢。
I do too.
听好了。
Listen.
我爱它。
I love it.
但我也会努力保持客观。
But I'm also I try to be very objective.
当我客观地看待这个问题时,比如,如果我们现在所处的现状和所有这些问题,再展望未来,有没有一种方式可以缓解这些问题?
And when I objectively look at it in terms of, like, if you take where we are now and all of our problems and you look towards the future and, like, would be one way that you could mitigate a lot of these?
而一种方法就是实现某种心灵感应技术,你知道,你不能只是发短信或发推文攻击别人,因为你真的会感受到对方在接收这种负面能量时的感受,你会感到厌恶。
And, well, it would be the implementation of some sort of a telepathic technology where, you know, you couldn't just text someone or tweet at someone something mean because you would literally feel what they feel when you put that energy out there, and you would you would be repulsed.
是的。
Yeah.
而暴力行为也是如此,如果你对他人施暴,你会在自己身上真切地感受到那种暴力带来的反应。
And and then violence would be if you were committing violence on someone and you literally felt the reaction of that violence in your own being.
这会很有趣。
And you would have fascinating.
你也会失去实施暴力的动机。
You would also have no motivation for violence.
如果我们没有攻击性倾向,没有原始的黑猩猩本能。
If we had no aggressive tendencies, no primal chimpanzee tendencies.
你知道,尽管世界上暴力事件在过去几十年里明显减少,但情感暴力却大幅增加,而互联网对此造成了恶劣影响。
You know, it's it's true that violence in the world has obviously gone down a lot over the decades, but emotional violence is up a lot, and the Internet has been horrible for that.
是的。
Yeah.
比如,我不会走过去打你,因为你看起来是个高大强壮的人。
Like, I don't walk I'm not gonna walk over there and punch you because you look like a big strong guy.
你会还手,而且社会规范也不允许这样做。
You're gonna punch me back, and, also, there's a societal convention not to do that.
但如果你我不认识,我可能会发一条刻薄的推文攻击你,而我却毫无感觉。
But if I didn't know you, I might, like, send a mean tweet about you, and I feel nothing on that.
是的。
Yeah.
显然,这已经成为一种社会大流行病,而我们并没有在生物层面进化出相应的约束机制。
And, clearly, that has become, like, a mega epidemic in society that we did not evolve the biological constraints on somehow.
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