930：摩根·豪塞尔 | 准备的力量胜过预测

本期节目部分由Vital Proteins赞助播出。你可能听说过Vital Proteins。作为美国胶原蛋白肽第一品牌，它当之无愧。包括我在内，许多人几乎每天都服用它来维护头发、皮肤、指甲、骨骼、关节等健康机能。在这个星球上生活得越久，这些就越发重要。

This episode is sponsored in part by Vital Proteins. You probably heard of Vital Proteins. They're the number one brand of collagen peptides in The US, and for good reason. A lot of people, myself included, take it pretty much daily to support things like healthy hair, skin, nails, bones, joints, all the good stuff. That starts to matter more the longer you've been walking around on this planet.

现在Vital Proteins正带来革新——全新胶原蛋白奶昔。一看文案就知道是老爸写的。这可不是那种尝起来像粉笔般苦涩的普通蛋白粉，它口感轻盈、巧克力风味、丝滑细腻，还有独特配方：30克优质蛋白与胶原蛋白的结合。

But now Vital Proteins is shaking things up, literally. You can tell a dad wrote this copy with a brand new collagen and protein shake. And this isn't your average protein shake that tastes like chalk and sadness. This one's light, chocolaty, super smooth, and it's got something pretty unique going for it. High quality protein, 30 grams of it, plus collagen.

这性价比相当高。通常你只能二选一，但Vital Proteins让你同时拥有即饮奶昔（可随身携带或冷藏）、零添加糖、无人工甜味剂、不含卡拉胶。虽然我不知道卡拉胶是什么（甚至不确定发音是否正确），但据说应该避免摄入。如果你已在服用胶原蛋白，或想了解它对头发/皮肤/指甲/关节的益处，又不想摄入卡拉胶，这是个美味便捷的选择。登录vitalproteins.com并使用优惠码Jordan可享8折。

That's pretty good ROI. Usually, you're choosing one or the other, but Vital Proteins gives you both a ready to drink shake you can toss in your bag or fridge, zero added sugar, no artificial sweeteners, and no carrageenan. And I don't know what that is or if that's even how you say it, but you're supposed to avoid that. If you're already taking collagen or you're just curious about how it might support your hair, skin, nails, joints, and you don't want any carrageenan, this is a super easy, tasty way to try it. Get 20% off by going to vitalproteins.com and entering promo code Jordan at checkout.

欢迎收听节目，我是Jordan Harbinger。在《乔丹·哈宾格秀》中，我们解码世界顶尖人物——从间谍、CEO到运动员、作家、思想家，甚至俄罗斯间谍、悬案侦探、宇航员和调查记者——的故事、秘诀与技能，将他们的智慧转化为可实践的忠告。我们的使命是通过深度对谈，助你成为更具批判性思维的人。新听众们，欢迎加入！

Welcome to the show. I'm Jordan Harbinger. And on the Jordan Harbinger Show, we decode the stories, secrets, skills of the world's most fascinating people and turn their wisdom into practical advice that you can use to impact your own life and those around you. Our mission is to help you become a better informed, more critical thinker through long form conversations with a variety of incredible people from spies to CEOs, athletes, authors, thinkers, performers, even the occasional Russian spy, cold case homicide investigator, astronaut, or investigative journalist. And if you are new to the show, welcome!

若想向朋友推荐本节目，感谢你！我建议从「精选集」入手——这些是根据听众口碑整理的热门单集合辑。

Or if you want to tell your friends about the show, thank you. I suggest our episode starter packs. These are collections of some of our favorite episodes. Well, your favorites really. We went by popularity.

说服力、谈判术、心理学、地缘政治、虚假信息、网络战、犯罪、邪教等主题，能让新听众快速领略节目精髓。访问jordanharbinger.com/start或在Spotify搜索我们即可开始。今天，我终于与老友摩根·豪塞尔展开对谈——这场筹备多年的对话。

Persuasion, negotiation, psychology, geopolitics, disinformation, cyber warfare, crime, cults, and more. Will help new listeners get a taste of everything we do here on the show. Just visit jordanharbinger.com/start or search for us in your Spotify app to get started. Today, my friend Morgan Housel and I finally sit down. This one has been in the making for a few years now.

摩根以财经作家身份闻名，当然他在该领域确实出色。但今天我们将探讨一系列迥异的话题，可能显得有些跳跃。我认为这无妨——实际上很有趣，更轻松随意些。我们会讨论成功、古怪亿万富翁、创新者、金融及其他领域的风险、财富、名声与幸福。

Morgan is usually known as a financial writer and he really shines in that area of course. But today, we actually tackle a series of very different ideas and we maybe seem to jump around a little bit. I think that's okay. It's a lot of fun actually, a little bit lighter, a little bit less organized in a way that might make it seem a little bit less formal. We explore success, quirky billionaires, innovators, risk, financial and otherwise, wealth, fame, and happiness.

这个点击率不错，内容比较轻松。我知道你会喜欢的。现在有请摩根·豪塞尔。

This one clicked pretty good. It's a lighter fare. I know you'll enjoy it. Here we go with Morgan Housel.

虽然你通常写的是金钱和金融相关的内容，但这一期节目我想我们会做些不一样的。首先，人们可以从其他地方获得很多投资智慧，比如你的书。更重要的是，在我看来，金钱、投资以及围绕这两者的思考，对许多其他领域来说也是极好的心智模型或模型集合。首先，你同意这个观点吗？

Well, you usually write about money and finance, but in this episode, I think we'll be doing something different. First of all, I think people can get a lot of the investing wisdom elsewhere even from your books, for example. And more importantly, money investing and thinking around those two things is in my opinion a great mental model or set of mental models for a lot of other areas as well. First of all, would you agree with that?

完全同意。实际上我不仅同意，这几乎是我工作的核心理念——如果你想学习投资，不要把时间花在金融教科书上。让我们了解世界其他部分的运作方式，从中学习可以应用于投资的模型，反之亦然。我认为从投资中可以学到很多关于世界如何运作的知识。

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I would actually more than agree with that. It's kind of a core of my work is like, if you wanna learn about investing, don't spend your time in a finance textbook. Let's learn about how the rest of the world works and learn the models from that that you can apply to investing and vice versa. I think there's a lot that you can learn from investing that teach you about how the rest of the world works.

所有这些都可以归为人类行为研究的范畴。嗯。一切都是相互关联的。当我们试图将其割裂，认为投资就是投资，政治就是政治时，就会遇到问题。其实它们都是相互联系的。

All of it just falls under the umbrella of like how do people behave. Mhmm. It's all interconnected. And we come into problems when we try to silo it and think that investing is investing and politics is politics. Like they're all interrelated.

是啊，我倾向于同意。而且讨论这些元概念或框架概念也更有趣。我的意思是，清晰的思考，摆脱自我和情绪的影响，这些都是非常好的东西。而这正是投资所需要的。

Yeah. I tend to agree. And it's also just kinda nicer to talk about the meta concepts or the framework concepts. And I mean, clear thinking, divorced from ego, divorce from emotion, that's all really good stuff. And that's kinda what you need with investing.

每次我投资犯错，都是因为我说服自己这次情绪是对的，比如'我受够了在交易平台上看到它一片红色，必须卖掉'。然后我又想'不，这是长期投资'——运营这个项目的人明确说过'早期公司会低迷一段时间，之后才会上升'。但看到那么大的红色数字，我就忍不住想抛掉。

And every time I make a mistake investing, it's always because I've convinced myself that this is the one time that like my emotion is correct or like, oh, I really need to sell this because I'm sick of looking at it in the red on my online portal for what I'm using to trade stocks. And it's just like, I don't wanna and then I'm like, no, this was a long term investment. It was literally the person who's running the thing was like, this is gonna be down for a while and it's gonna go up later because it's all early stage companies. Yep. And I'm like, but it's so red and it's such a big number, like I just wanna get rid of it.

我记得蒂姆·费里斯讲过他在亚马逊股价还很低时就卖掉了，原因记不清了。但肯定和2008年他恐慌性抛售有关，想着'金融危机来了，我得把所有钱撤出来'。

I think Tim Ferriss talks about how he had sold Amazon early, like way too early, and I can't remember why. But it of course had something to do with him just being like, I'm freaking out because it's 2008 and I need to sell everything Yeah. And get my money out.

这很难。而且其中很多事只有在事后才能看清。亚马逊就是个有趣的例子，因为真正成就今日亚马逊的很大程度上是AWS（亚马逊云服务）。嗯。所以如果你是2005年2月分析亚马逊的分析师，那时AWS根本还不存在。

It's hard. And so many of those too like only makes sense in hindsight. Amazon is an interesting example because what made Amazon by and large what it is today is AWS. Mhmm. So if you were an analyst looking at Amazon in 02/2005, AWS didn't exist anymore.

所以如果你从2005年2月持有亚马逊股票至今，确实收益颇丰，但这并非因为你的分析正确。而是因为2005年时无法预知的事件塑造了今天的亚马逊。

So like if you've held Amazon since 02/2005, you've done very well, but it's not because your analysis was right. Like something happened that was unknowable in 2005 that made it what it is today.

是啊，我在特斯拉股票上真是走了大运。人们总问：你最好的投资是什么？我说特斯拉，他们就说：哦，你运气真好。当时你看中了什么？

Yeah. I got really lucky with Tesla stock. People are like, what's your best investment? I'm like Tesla, they're like, oh, you're so lucky. What did you see?

而实际情况是这样的：我当时在另一家公司工作，和一群斤斤计较的混蛋合伙人分道扬镳后。那天他们告诉我休假，我就决定趁当天把所有退休金之类的投资全部搞定——查看所有标的，买入所有基金等等。

And I'm like, the story is literally this. I was working at another company with a bunch of business partners that were kind of petty a holes that I'd separated from. And these guys told me that I had the day off and then I said, okay, I'm gonna do all my investing for all my retirement funds and all this stuff today. I'm gonna look at all the stuff. I'm gonna buy all the funds, everything.

结果最后一刻他们又说：哦，你得来主持这个现场研讨会。我抗议说今天明明休假，他们却改口说反悔了必须到场。我当时真是气炸了。

And then at the last minute they were like, oh, you have to teach this live workshop. And I was like, no, I have the day off. And they're like, well, we changed our mind. You have to come in. And I was like, damn it.

总不能放客户鸽子吧？行吧，我必须先完成这个。那天是投资截止日，我干脆把所有钱全押在特斯拉和苹果上——那时大概是2015年。

I can't leave the clients hanging. You know what? Okay. I have to finish this. It's the last day I can invest this stuff.

我当时想：实在没精力研究了，随便投个地方把钱配置完，赶紧去上课算了。

I'm just gonna put everything into Tesla and everything into Apple. And it was like 2015. Yeah. And I was like, I just can't even think about this anymore. Just put it somewhere, get it deployed, go teach the class.

然后我就完全忘了这事。结果几年后，除了Netflix，这两只股票成了过去十年左右全球表现最顶尖的标的。我当时就想，哇哦。我全押在了黑色上，因为我不得不离开操作房间。它们原本只是我准备研究的长长股票清单里最前面的两个选项。

And then I just forgot about it. And then of course, like years later, aside from Netflix, the two top performing stocks that like the world has seen in the past decade or so. And I was like, wow. I put it all on black because I had to go out of the room where I was doing this. Those were the two things at the top of a huge list of other stocks I was gonna look at.

我原本想着，时间会冲淡一切。但事实是，它们最终带来了约20倍的回报。

I was just like, over time, it'll all come out in the wash. No. It turned into like, you know, a 20 x return or whatever it was.

是啊，你这门课教得可真是值钱。

Yeah. That was a very profitable course that you taught.

没错。但所有看似天才的操作，如果抛开自我陶醉，其实都是侥幸——结果完全可能相反。变化总是新奇刺激的，但人类行为模式往往代际相传。

Yeah. But it's like all the things that look like genius, if I really just take the ego out of it, I'm like, that was just dumb luck and it could have gone the other way. Yeah. Always. Changes are exciting and novel, but most human behavior patterns are consistent over generations.

这是对你某句话的转述。这个观点低调却深刻：人们追求的不一定是投资机会，可能是创业方向或创意灵感时，总在寻找重大变革，比如AI就是当下的热门。

That's a paraphrase of something that you had either said or written. This is sort of low key really insightful because I think a lot of people when they look for it doesn't even have to be investment. It could just be looking for what company they're gonna found or what sort of ideas they're looking at. They always look for the big change, right? It's like AI, that's gonna be the thing.

比如把AI加入CBD软糖，仿佛这样就能打造独角兽企业。但真正该关注的是不变的事物——就像你提到的，当AI取代所有工作后，什么需求依然存在？

We're gonna put AI into our CBD gummies. That's gonna be the next level, turn us into a billion dollar unicorn. But that's not the important stuff to look for. The important stuff to look for is, I think you'd mentioned like what's not going to change. What's the thing that's still gonna exist even when AI does all of our work?

人类仍会把钱花在什么地方？

What are humans still gonna spend their money

我完全同意这一点。让我对这个话题产生兴趣的主要有两点原因。首先，作为一名金融领域的写作者，我对我们这个行业在预测下一次经济衰退、熊市，或是金融领域之外如预测下一任总统、下一次恐怖袭击等方面的糟糕表现感到不满和愤世嫉俗。我们在预测未来方面实在是非常差劲，而相关证据是如此压倒性地证明了这一点。

I totally agree with that. And so much of what got me interested in this topic was two things. A, I had become disgruntled and cynical as someone who wrote about finance, about how bad we were as an industry at predicting the next recession, the next bear market, or outside of finance, predicting the next president, the next terrorist attack, whatever it would be. We're just very bad at predicting the future. And the the evidence of that is so overwhelming.

因此对我来说，问题变成了：与其只是对我们糟糕的预测能力冷嘲热讽然后就此打住，不如思考我们确定未来会存在什么？那些真正永不改变的事物是什么？我们完全不知道变化会是什么样。我不知道股市会怎么走，也不知道谁会成为下一任总统。

So then for me, it was like, okay, rather than just being cynical about how bad we are at forecasting and leaving it there, what do we know is gonna be in our future? What are the things that truly never change? That we have no idea what the change is gonna be. I have no idea where the stock market's gonna go. I have no idea who's gonna win the presidency.

但哪些行为是始终存在且未来也必定会延续的？这个想法深深吸引了我。随后有两件事真正巩固了我的这个观点。第一是我读到一本我认为史上最伟大的经济学著作——《大萧条日记》。

But what are the behaviors that have just always been here that are always gonna be there in the future? That idea was appealing to me. And then two things really solidified this for me. One was I was reading a book that I think is the greatest economic book ever written. It's called The Great Depression, A Diary.

这本书由俄亥俄州律师本杰明·罗斯所著，他在1930年代大萧条期间坚持写了大量日记。他在书中记录了萧条时期的所见所闻。特别是1932年（大萧条谷底时期）的记载让我震惊——如果修改日期，这些文字完全可以原封不动地描述2008年2月的情景。他描述的股市动态、房地产市场状况以及政客作为，简直与2008年2月的情况如出一辙。

And it's written by this Ohio lawyer named Benjamin Roth, who during the Great Depression in the nineteen thirties, kept a very big diary. And he's just writing about what he saw during the depression. And he wrote in 1932, which is the bottom of the depression. When I read it, I was like, if you change the dates, this could have been exactly what happened in 02/2008. He's talking about what happened in the stock market, what happened in the real estate market, what politicians were doing.

几页之后，本杰明·罗斯指出：1932年发生的一切与1892年、1874年及此前所有经济萧条完全雷同。他总结道：'细节永远在变，但人性行为永恒不变。历史只是不断重复相同的故事。'每次经济衰退中，人们的反应模式在历史上总是惊人地相似。

It could have been verbatim, a post from 02/2008. And then a couple pages later, Benjamin Roth says, you know, what's happening in 1932 looks exactly like what happened in 1892 and 1874, all the previous depressions before that. He made some comment to the effect of, look, the details always change, but the behaviors never do. It's always the same story. So every recession is the same thing over and over and over again throughout history, in terms of how people respond to it.

这是第一个启示。第二个是几年前读到杰夫·贝索斯那句名言：'人们总问我亚马逊会有什么变化，但我要说不会改变的东西更重要。你无法想象未来某天亚马逊顾客会不想要丰富选择、快速配送和低价商品。这些需求永远存在。'

That was the first one. And then several years ago, read this now famous Jeff Bezos quote where he said, everybody always asks me, what's gonna change in Amazon? And then he said, I would actually propose to you that what is not going to change is more important. Because you can never imagine a future in which Amazon customers don't want big selection, fast shipping, and low prices. Impossible to imagine a future where people don't want those things.

正因为这些是确定的未来要素，亚马逊可以全力投入这三件事，确信三十年后它们仍如今日般重要——这是大多数技术领域无法做到的。这让我顿悟：无论是投资、商业、政治还是人际关系，成功的关键在于聚焦那些确定不变的未来要素，而非自欺欺人地妄想预测变化。

And because those are going to be part of their future, they can invest so much time and money into those three things, knowing that they will be as relevant thirty years from now as they are today, which you can't do for most technologies. So that to me was like, yeah, I think that's actually a huge key to success in almost every area of life, Whether it's investing, or business, or politics, or relationships, whatever it would be, is focusing on what you know is gonna be part of your future, what never changes. Rather than fooling yourself into thinking that you can predict what is gonna change.

是的。这看似简单，但其中蕴含的微妙天才之处确实意义重大。我还没有完全意识到这一点，但现在想想，我已经放弃预测下一个社交媒体趋势的能力了。比如看到TikTok时，我觉得这太蠢了，要是它能火起来我会很惊讶。结果现在它成了最受欢迎的东西，而我不使用它，也不会用，认为它对你有害，甚至暗自希望它不会成功。

Yeah. It's quite simple, but it's the level of nuanced genius in that is really something huge. And I haven't quite put that at a conscious level, but now that I think about it, I have given up on being able to predict the next like social media trend for example. You know, looked at TikTok and I was like, this is so dumb that I'll be surprised if it takes off. And now it's like the most popular thing ever and what know, because I don't use it and I won't use it and I think it's bad for you and I was kind of maybe hoping that it didn't take off.

我对Clubhouse的判断完全正确——它就是个彻底的失败品，迅速跌落谷底。我当时还自信满满，觉得自己擅长这种预测。然后轮到TikTok时，我断言这种短注意力内容没有前途。但后来我开始思考：我会不会在长形式内容上判断失误？那些能带给人们深层价值的真实对话，与我不擅长制作、不愿制作、肤浅且厌恶创作的30秒短视频相比。多年前我和赛斯·高汀讨论时问他：你觉得这种趋势会消失吗？

I was right about clubhouse being a complete wank and to completely just dropping off of a cliff and I was like, I'm good at this. And then I was like, TikTok, that thing, that's not going anywhere. Short attention span, nobody likes that. But I started to think, okay, am I gonna go wrong with long form content that has deep value for people that's a real conversation conversation versus versus these these thirty second clips that I'm not good at producing, that I don't wanna produce, that are really shallow, that I would hate creating. And I was talking to Seth Godin, this is years ago and I was like, do you think this is gonna go away?

他反问我：你认为人们真正喜爱并产生共鸣的优质作品会消失吗？这就是你的问题吗？

And he's like, do I think good quality work that people really enjoy and resonate with is gonna go away? Is that what

你在问我吗？我当时

you're asking me? And I was

觉得这已经回答了我的疑问。对吧？就像电视出现后书籍消失了吗？类似的例子。事实恰恰相反。

like, answered my question. Right? Because Right. Did books go away when television happened or something along those lines? And it's right.

当初有人说有了电视广播就没人读书了，现在人们的阅读量却空前高涨。有声书市场庞大。早期做播客时，人们总说我们节目太长，建议做20分钟一集。

We have television, we have radio, no one's gonna read anymore, people read more than ever. Audiobooks are huge. Podcast people were like, oh, your show's too long, because we were one of the first shows. You gotta do like twenty minute episodes. Okay.

看看现在最火的播客——乔·罗根三个半小时的节目。像乔·罗根、蒂姆·费里斯，甚至和我们节目一样受欢迎的莱克斯·弗里德曼，都是三小时的长谈。相比之下，我的一到九十分钟内容都算短的了。

Let's look at the most popular podcast. Joe Rogan, three and a half hours long. You know, like you look at Joe Rogan and Tim Ferriss and even stuff that's as popular as this show, Lex Friedman or or what it's like, these are three hour long conversations. I'm coming in on the short end with an hour, maybe ninety minutes of content.

再举一个例子，史上最受欢迎且影响力巨大的纪录片有哪些？肯·伯恩斯的纪录片，每部动辄长达十七小时。没错。人们却对它们爱不释手，怎么看都看不够。

One other example of that, what's some of the most powerful popular documentaries ever made? Ken Burns documentaries that are literally seventeen hours long. Yeah. And people love them, they can't get enough of them.

对。他们甚至会请假专门去

Right. They'll take time off work to go

把这部片子追完。那么这种形式会过时吗？即便整体热度下降，我意识到这并不意味着我的节目也会遇冷。我只需保持在顶尖的1%行列，无论市场如何变化，我和其他那1%的人依然能获得全部回报。就算市场萎缩99%也无所谓。

and finish this thing. And so is that going out of style? Even if it's decreasing in popularity, I realized it doesn't mean my show's gonna decrease in popularity. I just have to stay in the top 1% or whatever, and all the returns are gonna be there for me and everybody else in that top 1%. It doesn't really matter if the market shrinks by 99%.

因为只要保住原有的1%受众，就足以维持生计。我甚至可能因竞争对手提前退出转投更轻松或更赚钱的领域而获得增长。所以，当你转换思维方式后，事情就简单多了，对吧？

Because if I still have that 1% that I have already, it's enough to make a living. I might even grow because competitors drop out to do things that are easier or more profitable at an earlier stage. So Yeah. When you start to switch your thinking around it, it becomes a lot easier. Right?

看肯·伯恩斯的纪录片，你真得腾出整周时间，还得确保家里没有孩子打扰才能看完一部。

Ken Burns documentaries, you really need like the whole week and no kids in the house to watch one of those things.

换个角度想，人们总在寻找所谓的捷径或技巧。嗯。总想着有什么新窍门能让我借力使力、快速成功？但生活中大多数事情的答案都是：根本不存在捷径。嗯。

One way to frame this as well is that everybody is always looking for the hack, the shortcut. Mhmm. What is the new little shortcut that I can use to leverage whatever I'm doing and get ahead? And for most things in life, the answer is there is no hack. Mhmm.

你只能脚踏实地。多年前我在另一家公司时，他们雇了位社交媒体顾问，来传授各种社交平台技巧。比如推特话题标签的使用技巧、最佳发布时间之类。我记得当时就在想，他们完全没提到社交媒体唯一有效的'技巧'——创作优质内容。这才是真正管用的方法。

You just have to put in the work. Years ago, when I was working at a different company, they hired a social media consultant who came in and told us like all the hacks for social media. And it was things like hashtags on Twitter, and like what time of day you should post. And I remember sitting there thinking, they're not talking about the only quote unquote hack that works on social media, which is write good content. That's the only thing that works.

这是唯一能随时间积累大量粉丝的方法，但没人愿意听这个。大家都想要小技巧、小捷径。而我认为创作优质内容是永恒的法则。一百年前有效，一百年后依然有效。只不过因为它困难且需要付出努力罢了。

That's the only thing that's gonna build you a big following over time, but nobody wants to hear that. Everybody wants the little trick, the little hack. And I think write good content is timeless. It worked a hundred years ago as well as it'll work a hundred years from now. But since it's hard and takes some effort Yeah.

人们总想要能立竿见影的捷径，比如新奇的技巧。饮食、锻炼、投资领域都是如此。就像所有人都在寻找不存在的窍门。你只需要找到那些亘古不变的有效方法，然后全力以赴。

People want the shortcut of what's gonna change, like the new little trick. It's the same in diet and exercise and investing, course. It's like everyone's looking for the trick when none exists. You just have to figure out what has always worked and put all of your effort into that.

没错。听着，即便技巧确实存在，因为——

Yeah. Look, even if the tricks exist, right, because

如果听众反驳说'不不不，技巧确实有效'。那可能只占成功因素的10%甚至更少。比如每天发五条内容，把TikTok视频改头换面发到Quora、Instagram Reels和YouTube Shorts。但归根结底，如果内容本身不够好...虽然他们会说'天啊，优质内容太难制作了，团队要花大量时间，而且我们还没有固定配方'。

if the people listening are going, no no no, the tricks work. That's probably 10% or not even of what gets something to do well. Post five times a day. You gotta repurpose this content from TikTok to Quora to Instagram reels to YouTube shorts and it's like, okay. But at the end of the day, if it's not good, but they're like, gosh, good content, that's really hard to produce, it's gonna take my team a bunch of time to do it and we have no formula for that.

但我们能做的，无非就是告诉你要加话题标签。

But what we can do is right, tell you to put the hashtags on.

内容创作没有捷径，唯有做好内容。这是唯一有效的方法。我认为这条法则没有例外。举例来说，无论是畅销书作家、像你这样的大播客主，还是热门电视节目，成功秘诀都只是优质内容。仅此而已。

There are no hacks in content other than make good content. It's the only thing that works. And I think there are no exceptions to that. Like name someone who sold a lot of books, who has a big podcast like you, who has a good TV show, it's just good content. That's it.

其他都不重要。

Else matters.

我看着那些昙花一现的家伙，其中有些人就是骗子，对吧？比如那些卖在线赚钱课程之类的人。他们可能火个一两年，最多三四年，因为他们每天在YouTube广告上砸一万美金——就像那个‘看看我车库’的哥们，还记得吗？对，就是那种昙花一现的人。但你再看看马克·曼森、詹姆斯·克利尔，还有我的其他朋友瑞安·霍利迪，你就会明白关键所在：他们先写了一本真正的好书，然后又写了一本真正的好书，接着又写了一本真正的好书。这些作品不会过时，因为它们不依赖推特热搜或自助鸡汤圈里那些速朽的东西。

I look at guys who are flash in the pan, some of them are scammy, right? So you look at these guys who sell like courses on making money online or something like that. They're popular for a year, maybe two, three years because they're spending $10,000 a day on YouTube ads, like here in my garage, you remember that guy? Oh yeah. So you see these flash in the pan guys like him, but then you look at Mark Manson and James Clear and other Ryan Holiday, other friends of mine, And you're just like, ah, the key is you wrote a really good book and then you wrote a really good book again and then you wrote a really good book again and oh, the stuff didn't expire because it wasn't about hashtags on Twitter or whatever the self help equivalent is of that.

而且他们持续输出。詹姆斯·克利尔至今虽然只出了一本书，但内容扎实、思想深刻，绝不是那种东拼西凑、只为混几个演讲邀约的垃圾——好让他能当个数字游民什么的。他是真正打下了根基。没错。

And they keep doing it. James Clear only has one book so far but like the stuff was good and he thinks well and it's not just like hacked together crap that was designed to get him a couple of speaking gigs so that he could, I don't know, be a digital nomad or something. Right? He like built the foundation for this. Yeah.

这些优质内容五年后依然有价值。五年后你再看，这群人肯定会有更多建树。

It's good and it's gonna remain good for five years. Those guys in five years, you're gonna see more from all of them.

我觉得你提到的另一点很重要：这类人写的东西具有永恒性。嗯。而有些人总想走捷径，比如这周新闻热点是什么？我就写这个。嗯。

And I think one thing that you mentioned too that's really important is that the stuff that those kind of guys are writing is timeless. Mhmm. And one other hack that people try to do is like, what's popular in the news this week? I'll write about that in my blog. Mhmm.

今年流行什么趋势？我就出本相关的书。我一直认为，如果你要花两年时间写本书并出版，至少该写些五年、十年、二十年后仍有阅读价值的内容。我以前在主流媒体工作，每篇文章编辑都会批注：写得不错，但这和本周新闻周期有什么关系？

What's the big trend this year? I'm gonna write a book about that. I've always been of the thought that if you wanna write a book that takes a lot of effort, it's gonna take you two years of your time to write this and get it out there, at least write something that has a fighting chance of being relevant and readable five, ten, twenty years from now. Yeah. I used to work at a major news publication, and every article that I wrote, the editors would write something along the lines of, hey, good piece, but how is this relevant to this week's news cycle?

而我总是回答：第一，没关系。

And I would be like, a, it's not.

谁在乎啊？就是。

Who cares? Yeah.

而b，这才是重点。我一直以来的观点是，如果一篇文章只在本周有相关性，那它实际上毫无价值。嗯。我认为这在阅读新闻或任何书籍时也是个很好的筛选标准——问问自己：一年后、五年后、十年后，我还会关心这个话题吗？如果答案是否定的，这就能很好地帮你判断该投入多少时间。

And b, that's the point. And I was always always of the thought that if the article is only relevant this week, it's not relevant at all. Mhmm. And I think this is actually a good filter when you're reading the news too, or reading any book, is to ask yourself, will I still care about this topic a year from now, and five years from now, and ten years from now? And if the answer is no, it's a pretty good filter for like how much of your time you actually want to invest into it.

我完全同意。这个观点非常精辟。就像你说的，很多作家的创作公式是：花两年时间策划写作，然后——虽然我对图书巡回宣传一无所知——再花三到六个月甚至一年拼命推广，之后作品就彻底沉寂了，因为它本就是为一个已不复存在的世界而写的。对吧？就像...

I agree with that. That's a really good point. The equation for a lot of writers is, like you said, spend two years planning and writing the book and then you spend, I know nothing about book tours, three, six months, one year hammering it as hard as you can and then it just falls off a cliff because it was written for a world that doesn't exist anymore in any way shape or form. Right? It's like Right.

把俱乐部演讲做到业内顶尖之类的。而真正优秀的创作者完成作品后会想：现在读这些内容的人还没当父母时会喜欢它，等他们成为祖父母时，它会显得尤为贴切。我读《每日爸爸》时就想，这实在太棒了。

Making your clubhouse talks the best in the business or whatever it was. Whereas really good creators create something and they go, alright. When the people who are reading this now haven't had kids, they're gonna like it. But when they're grandparents, it's gonna be especially relevant. I read the Daily Dad and I'm like, this is really good.

我在有孩子前就开始读它，现在也经常阅读。我非常喜欢，还会转发内容给我已是祖父的父亲，说'看看这个'。他会回应'哦，挺有意思'。我也转发很多给我妻子。这些内容对所有年龄段、已有或可能有孩子的人都很实用。

And I read it slightly before I had kids and I'm reading it all the time. And I love this and I'm thinking like, I forward stuff to my dad who is of course a grandfather and I'm like, check this out. And he's like, oh, that was interesting. And I sent a bunch of it to my wife. This stuff is relevant to any person at any age who has kids or might have kids.

这能让海量人群从内容中获益。但说到让YouTube短视频爆红这种事，你其实就指望能在数字领域的活动上做三场主题演讲，然后继续埋头苦干。我认为这就是为什么这些人会选择在亚马逊自出版——因为他们需要在三天内搞定。没错，他们得用AI生成内容，昨天就得发布。

That's a massive amount of people that can get value out of this content. But when something is about like making your YouTube shorts go viral, you're really hoping you get like three keynotes at whatever events are about digital stuff and then you're back to the grind. And that's a I think a lot of reasons why these guys will like self publish their thing on Amazon because they need to get it up in like three days. Yes. They need to like have AI write it and get it up there yesterday.

你刚提到的另一点非常关键：无论写什么题材，要想覆盖最广的受众并吸引大批读者...嗯...内容必须与多样化人群相关。因此你的著作应该涵盖多个主题。比如写金融书籍，里面就该包含适用于生活其他领域的观点——健康、人际关系、政治等方方面面。

There's another point that you just brought up that I think is so critical, is no matter what you're writing about, if you wanna cast the widest net and grab a big audience Mhmm. You need it to be relevant to a very wide variety of people. And therefore, whatever you're writing about should teach you about more than one topic. If you're writing a book about finance, there should be some ideas and lessons in there that could be applicable to other parts of your life. Health, relationships, politics, whatever it would be.

嗯。如果写金融书籍，就该写风险与回报、贪婪与恐惧这些能迁移到生活其他领域的主题。读詹姆斯·克利尔的《原子习惯》，你能学到适用于投资、人际关系、运动、健康等各方面的习惯养成法。所以无论读者是你、孩子、祖父母，他们都会发现能应用于生活的干货。但内容越专精，受众面就越狭窄。

Mhmm. If you're writing a book about finance, write a book about risk and reward and greed and fear that you can apply to other parts of your life. If you read James Clear and you read Atomic Habits, you can learn about habits that will be relevant to investing, relationships, exercise, health, whatever it would be. So no matter who is gonna read it, whether it is you or your child or your grandfather or your mother or your grandmother, there's gonna be something in there that they're gonna say, I can apply this to my own life. But the more hyper specific you make it, the narrower the audience that you is that you're gonna get

到。

to.

是的。每家出版社都会问你类似的问题：你的目标读者是谁？这是个出于好意的问题，也是个好问题，并非坏问题。

Yeah. Every book publisher will ask you something along the lines of, who is your target audience? And it's a very well meaning question. And it's a good question. It's not a bad question.

但我认为每本书最正确的答案恰恰是他们不想听到的——理想情况下是所有人。嗯。

But I think the right answer for every book is the answer that they don't wanna hear, which is ideally everybody. Mhmm.

没错，他们最讨厌这种回答。

Yeah. They hate that.

他们讨厌这个答案是因为听起来像在敷衍。但事实上我认为做到这点并不难。如果你是在讲故事而非堆砌术语、图表和信息，而这些故事又能映射生活中各种广泛经历，把网撒得那么宽其实没那么困难。

They hate that answer because it feels like a cop out. But I actually don't think it's that hard to do. If you're telling stories rather than using jargon and charts and information, and those stories could be applicable to a wide variety of experiences in life, I actually don't think it's that hard to cast your net that wide.

虽然出版业正在变化——你现在肯定也注意到了——可悲的是，我总遇到节目粉丝问：怎么联系出版社？我写了本书，已经完成，质量不错，很多人读过，真的觉得是部好作品。但我的出版界朋友会问：你现在粉丝基数多大？而我只能回答：零。但重点是文学性啊，最艰难的部分已经完成了！他们却说：没兴趣，我们不考虑。反倒是像我这种有粉丝基础却毫无成书想法的人...

Although publishing is changing and I'm sure you've noticed this now, it's like, unfortunately, I get all these show fans being like, how do I get in touch with it? I got a book, it's done, it's pretty good, a lot of people have read it, it's it's you know, I I really think it's something good. And my publisher connections will be like, how big is this current platform? And like, I don't know, none, but it's the literary part, The heavy lifting stuff is done and they're like, I don't know, I don't really interested in that, we're gonna pass on that. And then you get people like me who have a platform and have no book and no idea what they would wanna write.

我跟瑞安·霍利迪说过：我不想写书，因为还没找到非说不可的话。他说：这很好，更多人就该这么想。如果无话可说，就别写什么该死的书。我当时想：噢，说得对。

And I was telling Ryan Holiday, was like, I don't wanna write a book because I don't have anything to say that I wanna say yet. And he's like, that's great. More people should think that way. If you don't have something you wanna say, don't write a damn book. And I was like, oh, okay, good.

你是唯一这么说的人，因为出版商的态度是：老兄，我们会雇人来写。你只需讲几个故事，我们填补空白，然后你向你的受众推销，就能赚个一两百万，大部分归你。我在想，如果别人这么做，我会不会觉得这是骗局？如果我知道有人这么干，我会不会很生气？答案是肯定的。

You're the only person who said that because the publishers are like, dude, we will hire somebody to write it. Just tell them a couple of stories, we'll fill in the blanks, and then you just sell this to your audience and it's gonna make like a million or $2 and and most of that is yours. And I'm thinking like, wouldn't I turn to somebody else and go, that's a grift if they did that? Wouldn't I be pissed off if I knew that somebody did that? And the answer is yeah.

如果有人跟我说：'我只需露个脸，产品质量无所谓就能赚钱？' 我会很恼火。这就是他们现在的诉求——'你能推销这个吗？' 这才是关键问题。至于内容是什么？

I would be annoyed if somebody was like, so all I have to do is show up and the quality of the product doesn't matter and I'm gonna make money? That's what they want now. They're like, can you sell this? That's the only question that matters. What the content is?

无所谓，我们可以回收利用。找摩根·豪塞尔，偷他的故事，改个地点人名，说是你的经历。没问题。代笔的锅让枪手背。

Whatever, we'll recycle. We'll grab Morgan Housel, we'll steal this story, we'll change the place, change the name, say it happened to you. It's fine. Ghost writer. Blame the ghost writer.

不了，谢谢。

No, thank you.

彭博社的乔·威森塔尔多年前发过一条推文：每本书都该是杂志文章，每篇杂志文章都该是博客，每篇博客都该是推文，而大多数推文根本不该存在。

Joe Wiesenthal from Bloomberg, he has this tweet many many years ago where he said, every book should have been a magazine article. Yeah. Every magazine article should have been a blog. Every blog should have been a tweet, and most tweets never should have been written.

太真实了。

That's so true.

我觉得这话很有道理。当人们开始大规模阅读Kindle时，亚马逊通过研究电子书标注数据发现：大多数读者在哪个章节停止标注？他们以此作为判断依据。

I think there's a lot of truth to that. Once people started reading Kindle en masse, there was a lot of data. Amazon ran a study where they could look at Kindle highlights. Like, when did most people stop highlighting in the book? And they used that as a proxy.

大概在第13页左右。

It's like page 13.

他们用这个数据作为读者停止阅读的参考指标。而平均畅销书——别提普通书了，就说畅销书——大多数人大概读到第50页就放弃了。

They used that as a proxy for when people stopped reading. And the average best seller, forget the average book, the average best seller, most people made it to like page 50.

说实话，能读到那么远已经让我很惊讶了。

I'm surprised it was even that far, honestly.

这还是畅销书的情况。没错。我认为造成这种现象的主要原因是：对于一本250页的书，作者和出版商心知肚明，普通读者只会看完前言和第一章就结束了。正如乔所说，这意味着你完全可以——只要有个模糊的想法，就能像拼凑卫生纸一样凑成一本书，然后标价30美元出售。

And those are the best sellers. Yeah. So I think a lot of the reason this happens is that in a two fifty page book, the author and the publisher knows that the average reader is gonna read the intro and maybe chapter one, and then they're done. And to Joe's point, that means that you can just If you have a vague idea, you can just slap some toilet paper together and turn it into a book and sell it for $30. Yeah.

所以我写的两本书都篇幅短小、章节精简，我想要优化的变量（至少在某种程度上）不是购买人数，而是完读率。偶尔你会看到一本110页左右的书，非常短小精悍，读者反而特别喜欢这类书。

And so for both my books, which are short and they're short chapters, the variable that I wanted to maximize for, at least to some extent was not how many people buy it necessarily, but how many people finish it. Once in a while, you'll see a book that's like a 110 pages. Yeah. Really short thin book, and readers love them. They love those books.

是啊，但出版商不喜欢，因为只能卖7.99美元而不是27.99美元。

Yeah. The publisher doesn't because it's $7.99 instead of $27.99.

出版商恨死这种书了。

Publisher hates them.

是啊。

Yeah.

我喜欢短篇书籍，即便是长篇作品，我也偏爱短段落或短章节。是的。直击要点然后收笔，别浪费读者的时间。

I'm a fan of of short books or even if it's a long book, a short paragraph or a short chapter. Yeah. Make your point and get out of the way and don't waste the reader's time.

我每周要读很多书，大概两本，有时甚至三本。经常遇到这种情况：整本书其实写成13页的文章就够了。完全可以是一篇长博客，或者杂志长文，但内容已经完整了。结果他们硬塞进各种图表。

I read a lot of books, probably two, sometimes even three a week. And there are a lot where I'm like, this whole damn thing could have been a 13 page article. Would have been a long blog post, okay? Or a long magazine article, but it would have been complete. They're like throwing charts in here.

明显能感觉到出版社说'我们真的需要再加三章'，作者就敷衍地塞进毫不相干的内容，东拼西凑。读者一看就知道这三章该删掉。你甚至疑惑编辑为何没删？后来问作者，对方说'是出版社在完稿后逼我加的'。

You can tell the publisher was like, we really need three more chapters. And they're like, alright, I'm gonna do one that's completely unrelated and it's gonna go here and over here and over here. And you're like, these three chapters should definitely have been cut. And you think, how did they not cut those? And then you talk to the author and they're like, no, they made me add those after the whole thing was done.

你这才恍然大悟：难怪这么违和。这本书就像用大锤把方榫头硬塞进圆孔里。作者还抱怨'他们想要注水内容，那些本该放在下本书的素材，现在没法用了'。简直一团糟。

And you go, ah, that's why it didn't fit at all. You got the square peg through the round hole with a sledgehammer on this book. And they're like, yeah, they wanted filler and that's why I was gonna put that in my next book, and now I can't because I put it in this one. I'm like, what a mess.

没错，确实糟糕。《独立宣言》才4000词就彻底改变了一个国家乃至世界。而有些人觉得需要75000词来解释自己的思维模式...拜托。

Right. It is a mess. You know, the declaration of independence is like 4,000 words and completely transformed the country, the world, etcetera, etcetera. The idea that you need 75,000 words to explain your mental model Mhmm. Is like, come on.

本不该如此。我尝试用两个方法解决这个问题——不敢说已掌握，但第一招就是写超短章节。

This shouldn't be the case. Yeah. I've tried to get around this problem. I'm not gonna say I've mastered it, but I've tried to get around it with two things. Number one, very short chapters.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我两本书的平均章节长度都相当于一篇博客文章。其次，每个章节虽然围绕相关主题展开，但都可以独立成篇。如果你想从第13章开始读我的书，完全没问题。因为每章自成一体，你都能理解内容，而不是用20章篇幅反复阐述同一个观点。

The average chapter in both my books is about the length of a blog post. And number two, each one of those chapters kinda hangs on a connected theme, but they could be standalone. If you wanna start my book on chapter 13, it's fine. It's all gonna make sense to you because they live on their own. Rather than rambling on one point for 20 chapters Yeah.

我们应该在相关主题下，提出20个能独立成立的论点。

Let's make 20 separate points that could stand on their own within a connected theme.

您正在收听乔丹·哈宾格秀，本期嘉宾是摩根·豪塞尔。广告后马上回来。若您好奇我如何每周邀请到这些优秀作家、思想家和创作者，这都归功于我的人脉网络。我正在jordanharbinger.com/course免费教您构建人脉。我知道'社交'这个词听起来很功利——某种程度上确实如此。但这个课程实质是提升关系建设能力，激励他人主动与您建立联系。

You're listening to the Jordan Harbinger show with our guest, Morgan Housel. We'll be right back. If you're wondering how I manage to book all these great authors, thinkers, and creators every week, it's because of my network and I'm teaching you how to build your network for free over at jordanharbinger.com/course. I know networking is a gross word, kind of deservedly so. This course is actually about improving your relationship, building skills, and inspiring other people to want to develop a relationship with you.

这绝不是让您显得像个可悲投机者的尴尬课程。没有令人不适的策略或俗套话术，只有让您成为更优秀的连接者、同事、朋友和伙伴的实用练习，每天仅需几分钟。节目许多嘉宾都订阅并贡献课程内容。

This is not a gross cringey thing that's gonna make you look like a wanker. There's no awkward strategies or cheesy tactics. It's just practical exercises that are gonna make you a better connector, a better colleague, better friend, a better peer, and it only takes a few minutes a day. That's really all it takes. And many of the guests on the show subscribe and contribute to the course.

立即加入我们，与您应属的智者同行。课程地址：jordanharbinger.com/course。现在回到摩根·豪塞尔的访谈。

So come join us. You'll be in smart company where you belong. You can find the course at jordanharbinger.com/course. Now back to Morgan Housel.

我注意到你的书有个特别之处：很多书会引用其他著作的例子，比如用13页篇幅复述西蒙·斯涅克的观点，而你没有这样做，保持内容简洁。我认为这很聪明。我很好奇为什么其他作者热衷这种写法。

One thing I noticed that you didn't do in your book, which is in like a a lot of book, is they'll take an example from another book. They'll be like, Simon Sinek said, and it'll be like 13 pages of just rehashing something from his work. And I noticed you didn't do that and you you were able to keep things short. And I think that's clever. I'm torn as to why authors do this.

我认为其中有些内容是充数的，有些则是为了——如果我把自己与另一个非常可信的人物联系起来，就会显得我也很可信。但这很烦人，因为你最终会读到同样的轶事故事，后来作者会说，嘿，那是我为这本书编造的，甚至不是真实发生的事情。而在接下来的五年里，这个故事会出现在40本不同的书中。我注意到你没有这样做。我猜你确保每个人都读完你的书的诀窍是写一本350页的书，但最后300页都是空白纸，因为他们会在读到第50页时就停下来。

I think some of it is filler and some of it is like, if I associate myself with this other very credible person, it will seem like I'm also very credible. But it's annoying because you end up reading the same anecdotal stories that later that author's like, yo, that was something I made up for the book and wasn't even a real thing that happened. And it's in 40 different books over the next five years. I noticed that you did not do that. I guess the hack for you to make sure that everyone finishes your book is write a 350 page book, but the last 300 pages are just blank paper, because they're gonna stop reading at

第50页。

page 50.

就是这样。

That's it.

就是这样。不客气。

There you go. You're welcome.

我来告诉你为什么作者会这样做。这只是为了达到字数限制。5万字，这是非小说类书籍的平均长度，非常长且令人生畏。对于新作者来说尤其常见，他们会想，我有一个自己擅长的想法，我要写一本关于它的书。这是个好主意。

I'll tell you like why authors do that. It's just trying to get to the word count limit. 50,000 words, which is the average non fiction book, is very long and intimidating. And it's very common, particularly for new authors to be like, I have an idea that I'm an expert on and I'm gonna write a book about it. And it's a great idea.

然后他们坐下来开始写，好吧。他们写了2000字。是的。然后他们会说，我已经说了大部分我想说的内容。而你心想，太好了。我还需要再写25倍这么多。

And they sit down and they're like, okay. They write 2,000 words Yeah. And they're like, I've already said most of what I have to say. And you're like, great. I need 25 times this much.

然后他们有点慌了，开始往页面上堆砌一堆无用的内容来凑字数。

And then they kinda panic and they start throwing a bunch of toilet paper on the page to make

它合适。当处理得不好时，你一眼就能看出来，对吧？因为就像，为什么要跟我讲你的高中经历和科学老师？明明可以用一句话说明的观点，却硬是写了一整章关于你爸爸带足球训练的事。

it fit. When it's poorly done, you can really tell. Right? Because it's like, why are you telling me about your high school experience and your science teacher? Like, you could have illustrated that point with one sentence, but instead I've got a whole chapter on like your dad taking a soccer practice.

其实我们不需要这些，老兄。回到成功和在十年后依然有效的话题上。你提到Naval Ravikant，他谈论过平行宇宙中的成功。我特别喜欢这个概念，对吧？你不想依赖运气。

Well, we didn't need this, man. Back to the idea of success and what'll work in ten years. You mentioned that Naval Ravikant, he talks about success in parallel universes. And I love this concept, right? You don't wanna rely on luck.

我记得他说过类似的话，在一千个平行宇宙中，哪些事在每个宇宙中都成立？这是个绝佳的思考方式——究竟什么能跨越所有宇宙成立。人们总会喜欢来自可信主持人或作家的长内容，这几乎在任何时间地点都成立，就算在失重环境下也不例外。你总会想看到那些言出可信、没有隐藏议程且制作精良的内容。

And I think he said something along the lines of, in a thousand parallel universes, what would be true in every single one? And that's a great way to think about what would be true in every single one. People will like long form content from a host they can trust, or a writer they can trust. And that's gonna be true anywhere at pretty much any time even if there's no, you know, even in zero gravity. You're gonna wanna see somebody who you can believe what they say and there's not gonna be a hidden agenda and it's not gonna be produced like crap.

这其实很基础，虽然如今实现起来似乎很费力，但本质就是如此。这是衡量你创作或行动的绝佳经验法则。

That's pretty basic and seems to be a heavy lift these days, but it's pretty basic. That's a really good rule of thumb or heuristic to think about what you're creating or what you're doing.

举个史蒂夫·乔布斯的例子。如果乔布斯活了一千次，什么会始终成立？你可能会说发明iPhone。但如果他出生在1850年，发明iPhone就无从谈起。

Here's one example from Steve Jobs. What would be true if Steve Jobs lived in a thousand different lifetimes? Well, you could look at him and say, well, invented the iPhone. Okay. But if Steve Jobs was born in 1850, inventing the iPhone would not be a thing.

所以在一千个平行宇宙里，这不是该向他学习的重点。但看看他另一项成就：艺术与技术的交汇。这对乔布斯至关重要，这种理念无论放在千年前还是千年后都适用。

So in a thousand parallel universes, that's not a good lesson to take away from him. But let's look at something else he did. The intersection of art and technology Mhmm. Was a big thing for Steve Jobs. That is something that would be relevant a thousand years ago and a thousand years from now.

所以当你审视这些榜样时——无论是沃伦·巴菲特、乔布斯还是科比·布莱恩特——要确保你汲取的教训在他们可能投胎的任何时代都适用，这样你才有机会真正掌握。很多投资人在研究巴菲特时陷入误区，他们钻研1950-60年代的投资组合和公式，却没意识到那些方法如今大多失效了。因为时代变迁，市场进化了。你要寻找的是：从巴菲特身上能学到哪些对我未来人生普适的经验？而不是依赖1950年代股市偶然环境的幸运因素。

So a lot of times when you're looking at these role models, whoever it is, Warren Buffett, Steve Jobs, Kobe Bryant, whoever it is, you wanna make sure that the lessons that you're learning would be applicable in any different lifetime that they would be born into, so that you have a fighting chance of learning that yourself. A lot of people in investing, when they look at Warren Buffett, fall from this. And they study how he invested in the nineteen fifties and the nineteen sixties, and the stocks that he bought, and the formulas that he used without realizing that those formulas that worked in the nineteen sixties, a lot of them don't work anymore Mhmm. Because their time has come to pass, the market's adapted and evolved. So you wanna look at, what can we learn from Warren Buffett that is applicable to me and is applicable to my life going forward, and doesn't rely on the luck of what the stock market happened to be at in the 1950s?

所以有些事情是这样的，我能复制他在50年代挑选的股票吗？不能。但我可以尝试效仿他的耐力、长寿和耐心，并将其作为可以应用于我生活的永恒原则吗？可以。这才是重点。

So there are things like, can I replicate the stocks he picked in the 50s? No. Can I try to replicate his endurance and longevity and patience, and use that as like this timeless principle that I can apply to my life? Yes. That is something.

因此，这其中很多内容只是确保你从敬仰的人身上学到正确的经验。

So a lot of this is just trying to make sure that you're learning the right lessons from the people that you look up to.

是的。这很有趣。你说得对。史蒂夫·乔布斯在几百年前会做什么？他会制作小提琴，而且它们会非常出色。

Yeah. That's fascinating. You're right. What what would Steve Jobs have done even a few hundred years ago? He would have made violins and they would have been incredible.

对吧？它们看起来会很棒。

Right? They would have looked great.

这个例子举得太好了。没错。它们会美丽得多。是的。他可能会造出一辆蒸汽机车

That's such a good example. Yes. They would have been so much more beautiful. Yeah. He would have built a steam engine train

嗯。

Mhmm.

那会比其他的漂亮得多。所以这才是永恒的原则，而不是他预见了移动革命。不，那不是我们能学到的。那对那个时代来说太具体了。

That was just so much more beautiful than the others. So that that's the timeless principle, rather than, oh, he saw the mobile revolution coming. Like, no, that's not something we can learn from. It's it's too specific for that era.

没错，你说得对。就像一台经过打磨的蒸汽机车，煤炭不再由某个可怜的家伙手动铲入，而是自动填充。这种看待人和想法的方式确实能改变游戏规则。你之前提到风险，我听到了——我总以为我听过你说，但其实是读你的书时看到的，不过那是本有声书。所以我现在想，他是在书里说的还是在播客里说的？

Yeah, you're right. It'd be like a polished steam engine train where the coal doesn't get shoveled in by some poor schlep but automatically That kind of way of looking at people and ideas is really a game changer. You mentioned risk earlier, and I heard you I keep thinking I heard you, but I read your book but it was an audio book. So now I'm like, where did he say this? Was it in the book or was it on a podcast?

用加州人看待地震的方式去思考风险。跟我聊聊这个。因为这就是我住在加州的原因，而且我希望你在这点上是正确的。

Thinking of risk in the way California thinks of earthquakes. Tell me about that. Because this is why I live in California and I hope you're right about this.

嗯，如果你住在加州，你肯定知道地震将成为你未来生活的一部分。没人怀疑这一点。有些地震会非常强烈且具有破坏性，这是众所周知的，大家都接受这个事实。

Well, if you live in California, you know with certainty that earthquakes are gonna be part of your future. Mhmm. Nobody doubts that. It's there's and some of them are gonna be massive and destructive. Everybody knows that, everybody accepts it.

嗯。但即便是最顶尖的地震专家，也没人知道地震何时发生、会在哪里发生或规模有多大。他们甚至不会假装知道。没有像地震预测的CNBC频道那样24小时播报新闻，比如‘下周五晚上7点会有地震’——没人知道具体时间，你也接受这种不确定性。

Mhmm. But nobody, including the foremost earthquake experts, know when it's gonna occur, where it's gonna hit, or how big it's gonna be. And they don't even pretend to know. There's no earthquake CNBC of like predicting of like, you know, twenty four hour news, oh, this guy says it's gonna come next Friday at 7PM. Nobody knows, and you accept that.

所以与其假设自己能预测下一次地震，不如随时做好准备，无论它何时来临。消防员和急救人员总是在训练，时刻保持警惕。无论地震何时发生，他们至少能有所准备。而对比我们看待股市的方式——那里有CNBC，嘉宾们会说‘下一位嘉宾乔·史密斯预测市场将在下周五崩盘’——这完全是另一种思考风险的方式。

So rather than assuming that you can predict the next earthquake, you're just always prepared for one no matter when it comes. The firefighters and the EMS crews, they're always training, they're always on alert. No matter when it happens, they'll be at least somewhat prepared for it. And if you contrast that with how we think about the stock market, where there is a CNBC, where they're like, our next guest, Joe Smith, says the market's gonna crash next Friday. Like, it's a completely different way of thinking about risk.

这就是预期与预测的区别。没人预测地震，因为你知道做不到，但你会预期未来会有地震。我认为，如果用同样的方式思考生活中的许多风险，会更有益。顺便说一句，没人知道下一次经济衰退何时发生，真的没人知道。

So it's the difference between expectations and forecasts. Nobody forecasts earthquakes because you know you can't, but you expect them in the future. And I think if we think about a lot of risks in our life the same way, that's a good way. And by the way, nobody else knows when the next recession is gonna happen. Nobody knows.

但如果你回顾历史并说，平均每十年有两次衰退，其中一次通常相当严重，我预期未来也会如此。这不是预测，只是基于过去事件的预期。我认为这是一种比自欺欺人地以为能预见风险更现实的思考方式。纳西姆·塔勒布有句名言完美总结了这一点。

But if you look at history and you say, on average, there are two recessions per decade, one of which is usually pretty bad, and I expect it to be the case going forward. That is not a forecast. It's just an expectation based off of what's happened in the past. I just think it's a way more realistic way to think about risk than fooling yourself into thinking that you can see it coming. Nassim Talad has a great quote that summarizes this.

他说，投资于防范准备，而非预测。

He says, invest in preparedness, not in prediction.

这种看待问题的方式很棒，因为我认为风险尤其危险，如果你认为必须预测或预报它才能做好准备的话。因为如果你看看过去那些人们未能预见的事件，比如珍珠港事件、9·11事件、新冠疫情等等。确实有人曾发出过潜在大流行病的警告，包括我们节目的嘉宾。我的嘉宾们原以为会是流感，没人料到会有封锁措施。他们只以为会是一场大规模流行病。

That is a great way to look at this stuff because I suppose risk is especially dangerous if you think you have to predict it or forecast it in order to prepare for it. Because if you look at past events that people didn't predict, I don't know, Pearl Harbor, September 11, COVID, whatever. We did have people sounding the alarm on potential pandemics including guests on the show. My guests thought it would be the flu and nobody thought we'd have a lockdown. They just thought it'd be a big pandemic.

顺带一提，第320和222期节目。记得在节目备注里加上链接。是的，没人预测到9·11事件，没人预测到新冠封锁措施，也没人预测到新型冠状病毒。这些都没被预料到。

Episode three twenty and two twenty two by the way. Link it in the show notes. Yeah, nobody predicted September 11. Nobody predicted the COVID sort of shut down, the novel coronavirus. Nobody predicted this.

因此，风险尤其危险，如果你认为除非有人能明确指出具体威胁，否则我们就不做准备。嗯，我们已经看到了后果——我们对所有这些事件都毫无准备。

And so the risk is especially dangerous if you're like, well, unless somebody who can point to a specific thing, we're not gonna prepare for it. Well, we sort of see what happened there. We were unprepared for all those events.

新冠疫情很有意思，因为正如你所说，你们节目曾有嘉宾提前讨论过这种风险。嗯。我记得2015年比尔·盖茨在TED演讲中就说过，我们面临的最大风险是病毒性大流行病。嗯。甚至假设在九十年代，如果有人提出美国可能遭遇劫机恐怖袭击的风险...

And COVID is interesting because like you said, you've had guests that talked about the risk before it. Mhmm. There's I think a 2015 TED Talk where Bill Gates gives a TED Talk and he says, the biggest risk we face is a viral pandemic. Mhmm. And even if in the nineteen nineties, somebody hypothetically said America is at risk of a terrorist attack from hijacked airplanes.

我认为确实可能有人提出过这种警告。但这与预测截然不同。比尔·盖茨没有预测疫情会在2020年爆发，九十年代的人们也没说要注意2001年9月11日。嗯。

And I think there actually may have been people who did say that. That is very different from a forecast. Bill Gates didn't forecast it's gonna come in 2020. The people in the nineties didn't say, watch out for 09/11/2009 02/2001. Mhmm.

所以即使你知道存在风险并有所预期，也别假装你能完全做好准备，或能精准预测它何时来临。对我来说，最大的启示在于我们该如何准备，尤其是财务方面。我一直认为，投资组合中的现金储备应该多到让你略感心疼。因为如果你只为能预见到的风险做准备，那么根据定义，你十次里有十次会措手不及。

So even if you know that you are at risk and you have an expectation, don't pretend that you can prepare for it, or that you can predict exactly when it's gonna come. And to me, the big takeaway from that is just like how we prepare, particularly financially. I've always thought that the level of cash that you should have in your portfolio should feel like it's a little bit too much. It should make you wince a little bit. Because if you are only preparing for the risks that you can envision, then by definition, you're gonna miss a surprise 10 times out of 10.

因此，只有当你为那些甚至无法想象的事件做准备时，你才算真正为这些事件做好了准备。这时你才知道，至少你有机会应对那些你甚至想不到、毫无准备的意外。

And so you're only really prepared for these events if you are preparing for events that you cannot even fathom. That's when you know that you at least have a fighting chance of dealing with the surprise that you can't even think about, that you're not prepared for.

我想这让我感觉好点了。我妻子是

I suppose that makes me feel better. My wife is

一个非常保守的投资者，可以这么说。如果由我妻子做主，我们地下室可能会有一个巨大的保险库，里面堆满金币之类的。当然我们没那么夸张，钱还是存银行的。但她总说，'我只想有足够现金，能支付整个团队、所有员工、所有账单和个人开支一整年'。

a very conservative, I guess you could say investor. Like if it was up to my wife, we'd have a giant vault in our basement or something like that with stacks of gold coins in it. I mean, we don't quite get that ridiculous. We do keep our money in the bank. But man, she's like, I just want enough cash where we can pay the entire team and all the employees and all of our bills and all of our personal expenses for like a year.

我就觉得这太多了。她说不必削减任何开支，'这样我才安心'。后来我就不争辩了，但这确实让我更有安全感。或许她是对的，万一出事我们就有充足储备了。

And I'm like, that's a lot. Without cutting back on anything, she's like, I just feel better that way And I've learned to just not argue with that, but it does make me feel better. I mean, maybe she's right. We'll have a lot of dry powder if anything does go wrong.

你提到支付全员一年薪水的例子很有趣，因为比尔·盖茨在1970年代创立微软时有个著名故事。当时他押下重注，赌计算机会成为主流。但他说从第一天起，微软银行就必须有足够现金，确保零收入情况下也能支付一年工资。

It's so interesting that you bring up that example of paying everybody for a year because there's this amazing anecdote from Bill Gates of when he started Microsoft in nineteen seventies. He was taking this like colossal bet and this giant risk that computers were gonna go mainstream. Yeah. At the same time, he said from day one, he wanted Microsoft to have enough cash in the bank that they could make payroll for one year with no revenue.

这可是个巨头企业啊。

This is a massive company.

没错。他担任CEO直到2000年代初，始终遵守这个承诺——零收入也能支付一年工资。被问及时他说：'科技行业没有必然的明天，变革太快了必须未雨绸缪'。特别是90年代与IBM交战时期更是如此。

Yeah. And the entire time he ran Microsoft, he was CEO through, I think the early two thousands, he kept that promise that he could make payroll for one year with zero revenue. And when asked about it, he was like, look, in technology, tomorrow is never guaranteed. Things change so fast and you need to be prepared for And particularly when he was talking about in the nineties when he was at war with IBM. Yeah.

他当时的意思是，事后看来，微软确实成功了，但这一切都不是必然的，他需要确保自己有能力继续战斗。因此，尽管一方面他极度乐观且敢于冒险，另一方面在面对日常风险时，他的管理方式却异常保守。

He was like, look, in hindsight, Microsoft was successful, but none of that was guaranteed, and he needed to be able to fight another day. And so even though he was on one hand, like wildly optimistic and risk taking, on the other hand, he was super conservative in terms of how he managed the day to day risks of what he was facing.

听起来很荒谬。我猜为这类事情做计划本身就显得荒谬，因为大多数灾难预测听起来都很离谱。界限在哪里？我想起那些末日准备者的朋友，觉得他们有点不正常——想自己种粮食，住在离最近公路一百英里远的地方，防止《疯狂的麦克斯》里那种人来抢东西什么的，太奇怪了。

It sounds absurd. I guess planning for anything like this sounds absurd because most predictions of disasters actually sound absurd as well. Where's the line? Because I'm thinking of my buddies who are like doomsday preppers and I'm thinking, yeah, but you're kind of dysfunctional because you wanna grow your own food and live a 100 miles away from the nearest highway so that nobody with the Mad Max can't come and get you or whatever. It's just weird.

对吧？所以这个界限确实存在。但如果真出事，他们就不会显得可笑了，反而会说：看吧？现在想来我的地下农场避难了吧？你得开辆装三箱汽油的卡车，再带点干净饮用水来。

Right? So there's a there's a line somewhere, but like, they won't look ridiculous if there is anything that happened. They'll be like, see? Now you wanna come and live in my underground bunker farm? You need three tanks of gas in a in a back of a truck and bring some fresh drinking water.

听起来很可笑是吧？当时可能有人对比尔说：你应该把这些资金投入公司运营。但他就是不愿意那么做。

It sounds ridiculous, right? People were probably like, Bill, you should be taking this capital and deploying it in your company, and he just didn't wanna do that.

确实，某种程度上来说，尤其是很多黄金投资者——

Yeah, I mean there there is some extent, particularly with a lot of gold investors

嗯。

Mhmm.

他们会说：我投资黄金是因为当整个银行体系崩溃时，我想保住财富。而我的反驳总是：如果整个银行体系崩溃，美元归零，你的黄金也没用。那时你需要的是弹药和青霉素。对，那才是末日场景下的硬通货。

Who they will say, the reason I invest in gold is because when the entire banking system collapses, I wanna hold on to my wealth. And my counter is always, look, if the entire banking system collapses and the dollar goes to zero, your gold's not gonna be good either. What you want is not gold. You're gonna want ammunition and penicillin Yeah. Is what you're gonna want in that scenario.

这就好比，有些绝对的灾难性风险，让人不禁想问：何必费这个劲？查理·芒格在很多事情上非常直率，他也提到过这一点。他说，如果你生活在1930年代的维也纳，目睹纳粹主义的崛起，然后说‘我要把所有钱换成黄金’，那对你毫无帮助。嗯。或者如果你生活在二十世纪中叶的欧洲，想保护你的财富免受第二次世界大战的摧残，持有黄金也无关紧要。

So it's like, there are some absolute catastrophic risks that's like, why even bother? Charlie Munger, was very blunt a lot of things, brought this up too. He was like, if you were living in Vienna in the nineteen thirties, and you saw the rise of Nazism, and you said, I wanna have all my money in gold, that didn't do anything for you. Mhmm. Or if you were living in Europe in the mid twentieth century, and you wanted to protect your wealth from the ravages of World War II, having gold didn't matter.

城市被炸成废墟，黄金根本无济于事。所以我认为，那些试图防范灾难性掩体风险的做法在我看来意义不大，因为如果情况真的恶化到那种地步，它们很可能也保护不了你。我经常回顾经济历史，思考：在一场类似大萧条的大规模经济崩溃中，我能否不仅生存下来，还能蓬勃发展，努力把握机会，维持运营，照顾家人，持续一年、两年、三年。当然，这条线划在哪里总是很主观的。

The cities were bombed into rubble. It didn't matter. So I think like the catastrophic bunker risks, in my view, don't make that much sense to try to protect from, because they're probably not gonna protect you if things actually get that bad. I've often just looked at economic history and been like, okay, in a massive economic collapse, similar to like the Great Depression, could I survive, not only survive, but thrive and try to take care of, operate, and take advantage of opportunities for a year, two years, three years. And of course, it's always gonna be arbitrary like where you draw that line.

确实。

Sure.

而且，无论你准备得多么充分，总会有事情让你措手不及。即使不是财务上的打击，也会在心理上让你崩溃。如果明天爆发核战争，即使你在银行有十年的现金储备，你也会感到恐惧。是的，你会非常担忧。

And even like no matter how prepared you are, there's always gonna be things that will still throw you for a loop. Even if it's not financially, it'll throw you for a psychological loop. If there was a nuclear war tomorrow, even if you have ten years of cash in the bank, you're gonna be scared. Yeah. You're gonna be really worried.

你会担心孩子的安全。我认为你需要摒弃那种可以征服风险的想法，因为你做不到。我觉得，如果你能尽力承受并度过风险，这就是任何人能做到的最好结果，而不是想着可以避免它。这就像一些建造掩体的人试图做的，他们以为有了掩体就能消除风险。

You're gonna worry about the safety of your children. The idea that you can conquer risk is I think the idea you need to get out of your head, because you can't. I think if you can try to like endure it and survive it to the best you can, that's the best anybody can do, rather than thinking that you can avoid it. Which is I think what some of the bunker people try to do. It's like, if I have a bunker, I can eliminate risk.

但事实并非如此。我认为没有人能做到。你只能尽力而为，承受风险。

It's like, no. I don't think nobody can. You can just try to endure it to the best of your ability.

是啊。我想，如果你是彼得·蒂尔，拥有数十亿美元可以支配，你可以在新西兰建造地下掩体，配备私人机场，驾驶你的喷气式飞机，带着飞行员和你的……

Yeah. I mean, I suppose if you're Peter Thiel and you have billions of dollars to deploy, you can build your New Zealand underground bunker with a private airport and fly your jet with your pilot and your you can

试着把那些都做到

try to do that all

你想怎么做都行。但没错，你会花3亿美元试图规避所有那些风险。然后呢？除了花在新西兰地堡上的钱，你还是会赔光所有。对吧？

you want. But yeah, you're gonna spend $300,000,000 trying to avoid all that risk. And then what? You lose all of your money except for the money you spent on your New Zealand bunker anyway. Right?

所以他只会失去更多。是的，你说得对。你的观点依然成立。随着财富和社会地位的提升，可以说，你对金钱的看法和使用方式发生了哪些变化？我知道这个问题很宽泛，但你在另一个节目中提到过。

So he just has more to lose that he will. So, yeah, you're right. Your point still stands. As you've increased your wealth and social standing, to speak, how has your thinking changed with respect to money and how you use it? And I know that's a broad question, but you mentioned it on another show.

我想那是很久以前的事了。你说我们买的东西通常是社交信号，并不能真正让我们快乐。这个视角转换很棒，因为我有很多朋友非常成功，也有很多朋友过得并不好。说实话，我不完全确定那些成功的人就快乐多少。

I think it was a long time ago now. You said stuff we buy is usually a social signal. It's not something that really makes us happy. And that reframe is really good because I have a lot of friends who've done really well, but I also have a lot of friends who did not do well at all. And I will tell you that I'm not totally convinced that the ones who have done well are that much happier.

他们对某些事的压力确实小了，但我不认为他们就更快乐。而那些做出糟糕决定的人很明显，对吧？他们收藏从不驾驶的豪车，拥有三处房产，却四年没去过其中一处。

They have less stress about certain things, but I'm not convinced that they are that much happier. And you can really see the ones that are making bad decisions, right? They have a car collection that they don't drive. They've got three homes. They haven't been to one in four years.

就算在机场降落，他们可能都说不清怎么去那里。他们买这些东西以为能带来快乐，其实主要只是为了谈论——因为这是身份象征。仅此而已。越早理解这个概念，就越能避免重蹈覆辙。

Probably couldn't even tell you how to get there if they landed at the airport. But they bought that stuff thinking it would make them happy, but really they mostly just talk about it because it's a status thing. That's it. And the quicker you can kind of absorb this concept into your head, you can avoid doing that to yourself.

告诉你，我儿子出生时——他今天刚满八岁，这是他的生日——我给他和后来出生的女儿各写了一封信，想着他们成年后能从中获得些人生建议。里面有不少关于财务的内容，毕竟这是我的专长。嗯。其中写给儿子的一条是：你可能会以为自己想要豪车。嗯。

I'll tell you, when my son was born, he's eight actually today is his birthday, it's her date. I wrote him and his sister when she was born later, a little letter that I thought when they're adults find useful about some life advice. There's a lot there's quite a bit in there that was about finance because that's my thing. Mhmm. And one of things I wrote to my son was, you might think that you want a fancy car Mhmm.

豪宅名表应有尽有，但我要告诉你，你真正渴望的是他人的尊重与仰慕。你以为法拉利能带来这些，可它几乎从未实现——尤其是来自你希望钦佩你的人。当然这并非绝对，我认为也有真正优秀出色的人拥有法拉利。

And a big house and a flashy watch, but I'm telling you, you don't. What you want is respect and admiration from other people. And you think that the Ferrari is gonna bring it to you, but it almost never does, especially from the people who you want to admire you. And so, like, this is not universal. I think there are really good, awesome people who also own Ferraris.

这不是非黑即白的事情。

This is not like a black and white thing.

确实如此。

For sure.

但我确实认为，许多拥有豪宅、法拉利和珠宝的人，他们是在寻求尊重与仰慕。对我而言最重要的是，如果你能通过美德、思想、幽默或智慧赢得尊重，你就不需要靠汽车来获取。想想你最喜欢的喜剧演员或运动员——你根本不会在意他们住多大的房子开什么车，你敬佩的是他们的才华。

But I do think that a lot of people who have the mansions and the Ferraris and the jewelry and whatnot, they're trying to seek respect and admiration. And to me what's really important is that if you can gain respect and admiration through your virtues, through your ideas, through your humor, through your wisdom, you don't need to gain it from your car. I mean, think about your favorite comedian or your favorite athlete. By and large, you wouldn't care how big their house is or what kind of car they drive. You respect them and admire them for the skills that they have.

我会想到路易·C·K这样的人。

I would think about someone like Louis CK.

我刚好也在想他。是的。

I was just thinking about him. Yeah.

没错。通过他自己的话...这么说应该没问题，因为他本人也承认过——他就是个邋遢的胖子。

Exactly. Through like his own words. I feel I feel fine saying this because I think he has said this. He's like He's like a fat slob. Yeah.

他穿得像是没人会在乎，因为他本身就够滑稽了。人们欣赏的不是他的衣橱。所以我认为，当有人试图通过衣着、豪车或豪宅面积来赢得尊重时，某种程度上是在弥补他们无法通过其他途径获得尊重与钦佩的事实。从这个角度看，我认为对物质财富的渴望，几乎可以视为你在智慧、幽默、才智和爱等其他方面能为世界提供价值的反向指标。

He dresses like nobody cares because he's hilarious. They don't admire him for his wardrobe. So I think when you have people who are trying to gain respect through their wardrobe, or their horsepower, or their square footage of their house, it can sometimes be trying to make up for the fact that they can't gain respect and admiration through other avenues. To that point, I think sometimes my aspiration for material goods, you can almost think of it like an inverse proxy for how much value you have to offer the world in other things like wisdom and humor and intelligence and love.

这个视角真的很独到。而且你说得对，实际上甚至有点像是...

That's a really good way to look at things. And and you're right, actually even sort

反向或相反的情况，我被两件事搞糊涂了。

of the inverse or the converse, I was confused with two things.

如果你看到路易·CK开着辆——我对车一窍不通——但比如什么豪华的布加迪威龙之类的，你可能会觉得，呃，有点可悲对吧？有点尴尬。就像，快看他。

If you saw Louis CK and he was riding around in like a I don't even know cars at all, but like some sort of fancy Bugatti Veyron or whatever, you'd be like, oh, it's a little sad. Right? It's a little cringe. Yeah. Like, oh, look at him.

那家伙拥有的还不够多吗？得了吧。但如果发现他是个车迷，从16岁起就痴迷汽车，就是真心喜欢，你又会觉得，哦，那挺好的对吧？

Doesn't that guy already have enough? Come on, man. But then if you found out he was a car enthusiast and he's always been a car enthusiast since he was 16 years old, he just really loves that. You'd like, oh, well, good for you. Right?

可一旦发现他们买东西只是为了显得酷，效果就完全相反了。更像是，哦，中年危机来得挺猛啊？

But as soon as soon as you find out that they bought something because they thought it would make them look cool, it has the exact opposite effect. It's more like, oh, that midlife crisis is really hitting, isn't it?

没错。回到你最初的问题，随着净资产略有增长，我始终提醒自己：我真正想要的是大概五个人的尊重和钦佩。我希望父母爱我，孩子爱我。

Right. Yeah. So back to your first question, I think as my net worth has increased a little bit, I try to keep that in mind of like, what I actually want is respect and admiration from like five people. I want my parents to love me. I want my kids to love me.

我希望妻子能爱我。这真的非常重要，如果我得到了她的尊重和仰慕，这就是我人生追求的核心。而我开的车能增进这份感情吗？显然不能。我穿的衣服能吗？也不能。

I want my wife to love me. And that's really so like, if I have their respect and admiration, that's the core of what I'm trying to get in life. And is the car that I drive gonna improve that? Like, no. Is the clothes that I wear gonna improve No.

所以我经常思考这个问题。我认为自己做得还不错的是，用金钱换取对时间的掌控权、独立性和自主权。我只想每天醒来时可以说：今天我想干嘛就干嘛。多数日子里我确实想醒来工作，但这是出于我的意愿，由我决定。用积累的财富来掌控时间、获得独立，我认为这意义重大。

So I try to think about that a lot. What I want my money to do for me, that I think I've done okay doing this, is giving myself control of my time, independence and autonomy. I just wanna wake up every day and say, I can do whatever the heck I want today. And most days, I wanna wake up and work, but it's on my terms, it's up to me. And so using your wealth that you've saved up to gain control of your time and become independent, I think is massive.

这与许多CEO形成鲜明对比，他们或许年收入三千万美元以上，却无法支配自己的时间。每一秒都被他人需求所支配。在我看来这像是一种独特的贫困。我追求与之相反的状态——宁愿少赚些钱但能自主安排时间，也不愿高收入却整天受制于人。

And you can contrast that to a lot of CEOs in particular, who might make $30,000,000 a year or more, but they have no control over their time. Every second of their day is dictated by the demands of somebody else. And that to me is like a unique form of poverty. I'm interested in the opposite of that. I would much rather make a lower amount, but have control over my schedule, than to make a higher amount and be just at the whim of other people's desires all day long.

嗯。要记住用未来可能积累的财富来实现这一点。

Mhmm. Try to keep that in mind with the money that I might build up over time.

确实。没时间花钱或享受真的很可悲。看看鲍勃·艾格这样的例子，他最近重返迪士尼时有篇文章说公司状况糟糕，他感到不堪重负。从每张照片都能看出他迅速衰老。就像总统们，离任时总会多出许多白发。

Yeah. Not having time to spend it or enjoy it is really something. If you look at guys like Bob Iger who came back and I think recently there was some article where he's like, Disney is in bad shape, I'm overwhelmed. And you can just see him getting older in like every picture that they take. And I mean like presidents for example, they always leave the office with gray hair if they didn't have it going.

没错。就是这样。

Yes. And it's like Yeah.

完全同意。好吧。他们老了八岁。实际是四...

Totally. Okay. They're eight years older. They're four

年纪大了。不，他们每晚睡眠不足三小时，连续八年或四年每周四早上都要处理核危机之类的紧急状况。这可不好受。换来的好处就是余生都有特勤人员站在浴室门外把守，以及报酬过高的演讲邀约——老实说我不确定这交易是否划算，真的不确定。

years older. No. They didn't sleep more than three hours a night and they had nuclear or whatever crises every Thursday morning for eight years, four years, whatever it was. That's not great, man. The bonus you get from that is what secret service guys standing outside the bathroom door for the rest of your life and speaking gigs that are overpaid like I don't know if I would make that trade man, I really don't.

我不知道，我觉得这不适合我。

I don't know I don't think it's for me.

听着，我很感激世界上有这样的人存在——那些必须24小时连轴转的人。史蒂夫·乔布斯、迈克尔·艾斯纳、沃伦·巴菲特，还有伟大的企业家埃隆·马斯克。他们的存在让世界变得更美好。但仰望他们并渴望成为他们是另一回事，因为我认为99.9%的人不仅做不到他们那样，就算有能力也不会愿意过他们那种生活。

And look, I'm grateful that there are people like that in the world who who have to work twenty four hours a day. Steve Jobs, Michael Eisner, Warren Buffett, like the great entrepreneurs, Elon Musk. I'm grateful that they exist and they make the world a much better place. But it's another thing to look at them and aspire to it, because I think 99.9% of people, not only could not do what they do, but would not want to do what they do and live the life that they live if they had that.

嗯。

Mhmm.

所以我不是A型人格。我的稳态就像穿着运动裤窝在沙发上看书。如果能用财富让我更接近这种状态，这才是我想要的，而不是用它来不断逼迫自己前进再前进。

And so, I'm not a type a person. Like my steady state, my homeostasis is like sweatpants on the couch reading a book. And so if I can use my wealth to get me myself closer to that, that is what I wanna do rather than using it to try to keep going and pushing further and further and further. This

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是啊。查理·芒格有句可能不算玩笑的话，说幸福生活的秘诀就是降低期望。我是说，这话挺有趣的。没错，它并非全无道理。

Yeah. There's a maybe not a joke from Charlie Munger that said the key to a happy life is low expectations. I I mean, it's funny. Yes. It's not totally wrong.

对吧？如果你这样想——我常思考这个。人们会说，哇，你曾想过自己会过上这样的生活吗？而我的回答总是：没有。

Right? If you're just like, I think about this. People go, wow. Did you ever think your life would end up like this? And I'm like, no.

他们接着问：那现在感觉如何？生活方式有什么改变？我就说，呃...我不确定。空闲时间确实多了不少。他们就会附和：是啊。

And they're like, well, great. How are you how have you changed living? And I'm like, I I don't know. I mean, I have a lot more free time. They're like, yeah.

但他们会说你可以买更大的...比如海滨别墅什么的。你知道的，你可以这样那样。而我始终觉得：我从来不在乎变得富有。真的不在乎。没错，我认识的大多数发小都默认自己会发财。

But you could buy like a bigger how you get a beach house. You know, you could do this and and I'm like, didn't never cared about being rich. Never cared about it. Yes. I know most kids who I grew up with assumed they would be rich.

但我真没这么想过——母亲是公立学校教师，父亲是汽车工人。我当时觉得：成年后能赚到相当于六位数的收入（不管具体意味着什么）就足够了。我所需不多。是否拥有所有想要的东西？没有，但生活本就如此，我觉得挺好。

I didn't really because my mom was a public school teacher, my dad was an auto worker and I was like, if I can make the equivalent of 6 figures, whatever that means, when I'm an adult, that's fine. I got everything I need. Do I have everything I want? No, but like that's life, you know, I don't I'm fine. Yeah.

所以现在即便负担得起那些物质，我也没真正渴望拥有。这部分确实源于低期望：不，我真正渴望的是稳定和自由时间。

So now that I can afford all that stuff, I don't really feel the need to have it. And some of that really is low expectations. It's like, no, I just really want stability. I want free time. Yeah.

我不想像我父亲那样凌晨五点起床开车去底特律。没有这种通勤压力正是我想要的。也不愿像我母亲那样遭遇公立学校里的糟糕上司，更不想被家长指着鼻子骂。

I don't wanna get up at 05:00 in the morning and drive to Detroit like my dad. I could live without that. That was a commute that I never wanted. I don't want a bad boss like my mom had as a public school teacher. I don't want parents yelling at me.

好吧。但那是职业选择的问题。对吧？并不是说，我需要每年赚300万美元才能实现这个。不是的。

Okay. But that's a career choice thing. Right? That's not like, okay, I need to make $3,000,000 a year to make this happen. No.

完全正确。你甚至不需要六位数的收入就能实现。你需要找到如何在家赚钱的方法，就像我们许多听节目的人一样，尤其是在疫情之后，这种居家办公的方式。你不再需要六位数收入来让生活有价值，因为你不用再去小隔间里被那些资历老的人吼叫了。你根本不必再那样做了。

Totally. You don't even need 6 figures to make that happen. You need to figure out how to make money from home like many of us have who listen to the show, especially post pandemic, this sort of work from home thing. You don't need 6 figures to make your life worth it anymore because you don't have to go to your cubicle and get yelled at by some a hole with seniority. You just don't have to do that anymore.

不过，生活方式膨胀是很危险的。看起来我们中有些人能避免，但其他人不行。我在想你对这种情况是怎么发生的有没有什么看法。

Lifestyle creep though man is dangerous. And it seems like some of us avoid this, but other people don't. And I'm wondering if you have any thoughts on how that actually happens.

我认为大多数人在陷入某种生活方式膨胀的路径时，他们错误地假设如果他们的车更快、房子更大或衣服更漂亮，就能获得更多他人的尊重和羡慕。是的。而当他们看不到这种联系时，总是会想，如果车再快一点，房子再大一点，再多一点点就好了。如果你描述一个类似的过程，比如你吸食某种东西，觉得不够，所以需要再多一点，还是不够，又需要再多一点，那就是毒瘾。没错。

I think most people when they are going down some sort of path of lifestyle creep, they are making a false assumption that if their car was faster or their house was bigger or their clothes were nicer, they would gain more respect and admiration from other people. Yeah. And when they don't see that connection, it's always just, well, if the car was a little faster, if the house was a little bigger, if it was a little bit more. If you were to describe a similar process of you take a hit of something and it's not enough, so you need a little more, and that's not enough, so you need a little more, it's a drug addiction. Yeah.

这个过程就是一种上瘾，我认为从非常真实的意义上来说就是如此。金钱也是如此。对我来说，打破这个链条的故事，我在第一本书中讲过，我曾经在洛杉矶一家五星级酒店当泊车员。那时我还年轻，大概19到22岁。但有一天我突然意识到，如果我看到有人开着劳斯莱斯或兰博基尼之类的车进入酒店，我从未盯着司机说，哇，那家伙真酷。

The process is an addiction, And I think it is in a very real sense. It happens with money as well. To me, breaking the chain of that I told a story in my first book about I used to be a valet at a five star hotel in Los Angeles. And I was young, I was, you know, 19 to 22 at the time. But it dawned on me one day that if I saw somebody drive into the hotel in a Rolls Royce or a Lamborghini, whatever it was, never once did I stare at the driver and say, woah, that guy's cool.

我所做的是想象自己是那个司机。当然。然后我想，如果我是司机，人们会看着我，觉得我很酷。这不就是讽刺吗？我不在乎那个司机，但我想成为司机，因为我觉得人们会在乎我。

What I did is I imagined myself as the driver. Sure. And I thought, if I was the driver, people would look at me and think I'm cool. And it was like, don't you see the irony? I don't care about the driver, but I wanna be the driver because I think people will care about me.

一旦我意识到这个愚蠢的游戏，每个人都以为他们在看你，但其实没有。他们在想象自己是你的样子，想象其他人在看着他们。所以，对我来说，核心的领悟是：没有人在乎你像你自己那么多。没有人像你那样想着你。没有人在乎你的财产像你自己那么多。

Once I realize that dumb game, that everybody thinks they're looking at you, but they're not. They're imagining themselves being you, and imagining everyone else looking at them. And so, the core takeaway for that for me was nobody cares about you as much as you do. Nobody's thinking about you as much as you are. Nobody cares about your possessions as much as you do.

一旦你掌控了这一点，我认为你对更优质生活方式的渴望就会减弱。我认为现存最强大的金融资产是不需要去取悦他人。如果你不需要取悦他人，实际上就很容易专注于那些真正让你生活幸福的事物。最近我听到另一种表述方式，觉得非常精辟：高端丰田车比入门级宝马更优秀。因为高端丰田车配备了所有让你驾驶愉悦的配置——舒适的座椅、优质的音响系统等等。

And once you gain control of that, then I think your aspirations for nicer lifestyle stuff diminishes. And I think the most powerful financial asset that exists is not needing to impress other people. If you don't need to impress other people, it's actually so easy to focus on the things that actually make you happy in life. One other way that I heard this phrase recently, thought was so brilliant, was a high end Toyota is a nicer car than an entry level BMW. Because the high end Toyota is filled with things that make driving pleasant for you, comfortable seats, a good stereo system, whatever it is.

而入门级宝马纯粹是为了炫耀。这就是你从中得到的全部。除此之外，它其实是辆相当糟糕的车。

Whereas the entry level BMW is just bragging rights. It's all you get from it. Otherwise, it's a pretty shitty car.

他们居然想收你10美元使用费才能开启座椅加热功能。什么意思？要我刷信用卡吗？刷哪里？是啊。

Let's try to charge you $10 to use this heated seats. What what do you mean? I swipe my credit card. What do I swipe? Yeah.

请继续。

Go ahead.

所以我认为在很多事情上，你应该让自己的生活向高端丰田看齐（可以这么说），而不是低端车型。当你这么做时，生活水平的攀比就会消失。

So I think for many things, you wanna align your life towards the high end Toyota Yeah. So to speak, versus the low end. And once you do that, think lifestyle creep goes away.

但除非你卖掉丰田车，否则攀比心不会真正消失。那时你就会开始比较自己的高端丰田和那辆低端宝马了。如果你对自己诚实，就能看清孰优孰劣。这很有趣。我住在硅谷，经常看到这种情况——比如有辆鲜红或亮黄的兰博基尼开过来，车主在停车场里艰难地保持低速，因为这该死的超跑总是顿挫。

Well, you can't really creep unless you get rid of the Toyota and then you're comparing your high end Toyota with that low end BMW, man. And if you're not lying to yourself, you see who comes out on top. That's so interesting. I live in Silicon Valley, so I see a lot of this where I'm like, you know, you see like this bright red or yellow Lamborghini drive and pull up and the guy's having trouble going slow enough in the parking lot because it's a freaking super car. So it's like jerking.

车终于停稳了是吧？你期待会像《炮弹飞车》里那样走下来个美女。紧身皮衣、飞行员墨镜，摘下帽子甩出一头浓密秀发那种。

They finally stop. Right? And you expect the girl from Cannonball Run to get out. Right? Leather bodysuit, aviators, takes off the hat and like this luscious locks of hair fall out.

不。这是个衬衫只塞了一半、屁股沟外露的家伙，因为他在领英或类似的技术支持部门工作，牛仔裤都穿不进去。你看着他就想：嗯，没错。没人会对这家伙垂涎三尺。

No. It's a dude with half his shirt tucked in, his ass crack hanging out and he like can't fit into his jeans because he works at like LinkedIn or something in tech support. And you're like Yep. Yeah. Nobody's looking at that guy and looking their chops.

就像，这家伙连车都停不好。就这样。

Like, this is a guy who just can't park the car. That's it.

是啊。我觉得如果把人生分成两种，你愿意每年赚100美元但配偶爱你、孩子崇拜你、时间自由支配、身体健康呢？嗯。还是每年赚一百万美元却离了四次婚、与子女疏远、肥胖超重、健康崩溃？显然该选哪个一目了然。

Yeah. And I think if you were to break it into two lives, like would you rather make a $100 a year, but your spouse loves you, your kids admire you, you have control over your time, you're in good health Mhmm. Or you can make a million dollars a year and you're on your fourth divorce, you're estranged from your children, you're obese and overweight and your health is falling apart. Like, it's so obvious which one of those you should want. Yeah.

但讽刺的是，人们实际追逐的是什么？他们会追求真正让自己快乐的东西吗？比如人际关系、健康这些？还是只会追逐工资这种具体易衡量的事物，哪怕生活其他方面都一团糟？

But the irony is like, what do people actually chase? Are they gonna chase things that actually make them happy? Relationships and health and whatnot? Or are you gonna chase just something that is so tangible and easy to measure like salary, even if everything else in your life is going to hell?

老兄，我朋友谢普·戈登，你听说过吗？他以前负责管理很多大明星，现在还在带一些艺人，是个老前辈了。网飞给他拍了纪录片《超级经纪人》。他真是个了不起的家伙，传奇的摇滚经纪人。

Man, my friend Shep Gordon, have you heard of this guy? He's like, he used to manage all these big stars. He still manages a bunch of people, he's he's an older dude now. They did a Netflix on him called Super Mench. And he's just an amazing amazing guy, a rock and roll manager.

他告诉我：'我职业生涯中从没见过谁被名声毁掉生活前过得不好。'这家伙的工作就是让艺人出名好卖票，而且做得极其出色。我说：'哇，你总让人成名啊'，他却说：'是啊，我几乎后悔这么做。'

And he told me, I've never met anyone in my career where fame didn't completely ruin their life. This is a guy whose job it was to make artists famous so that they could sell tickets. And he did a great job with it. I mean, it's the stuff of legends. And I remember saying like, wow, you know you make people famous all the time and he's like, yeah and I'm almost sorry I did it.

虽然这是他们想要的，但结局总是不好。我问：'你说谁呢？'他基本发明了明星主厨这个概念，像埃默里尔·拉加西这些人都是他捧红的。他给我讲了一个又一个故事：'你以为那个举世闻名五十年的完美家伙，其实悲惨破产，除了我和少数几人外没有真正的人际关系。'你会觉得，这就像他们得了一种表面光鲜的疾病。

It's what they wanted but really it never ends up well. And I was like, are you talking about? He basically invented the celebrity chef, know, Emeril Lagasse and all these guys that this is all his doing. And he just would tell me story after story of, well this person who you think is probably like the most amazing guy in the world and has been famous for fifty years, is miserable and broke and has no real relationships outside of me and a handful of other people. And you're just thinking like, oh, this is almost like a disease they got that looks really good.

这就像一种让你变高变帅的病，对吧？然后你想，哦，给我找条河。但其实不，他们仍在死去。他们仍在缓慢痛苦地死去。真的很糟糕。

It's like a disease that makes you taller and good better looking, right? And you think, oh, find me a river. It's like, no no no, they're still dying. They're still dying a slow painful death. It really sucks.

确实很糟糕。马特·达蒙有句名言说得很好：从你成名那天起，你的社交能力就停止成长了，因为所有人对待你的方式都变了。女孩或男孩们对你的态度不同，你的约会对象圈子也不同，人们会巴结你，永远不会指出你的错误。这样可能很舒适，但你的社交能力就此停滞。这就是为什么我认为童星——迈克尔·杰克逊、奥尔森姐妹，无论谁——某种程度上他们从未真正成熟，因为他们在孩童时期就停止了社交成长。

It actually sucks. This is a great quote from Matt Damon where he says, the day that you become famous, you stop maturing socially, because everybody is treating you different. The girls or the guys are treating you different, like your dating pool is different, people are gonna kiss up to you, they're never gonna tell you you're wrong, And that might be comfortable, but you stop maturing socially. And this is why I think childhood celebrities, Michael Jackson, the Olsen twins, whoever it might be, I think to some extent, they never matured at all because they stopped maturing socially when they were children.

是啊。

Yeah.

这种方式根本行不通。所以你看那些做得不错的人，对我来说最突出的是基努·里维斯——当然他肯定不完美，但在一线明星中他处理得最好。如果你了解他，会发现他过着非常谦逊的生活，像个真正的善人，从不四处博关注。我确信他做得并非完美，但看到有人努力保持正常，就像是在对抗这种其他明星甚至意识不到自己已患上的'病'，这很值得称赞。

And it's just impossible to do it that way. So then you see like the some of the people who have done well, to me who sticks out, and I'm sure he's not perfect, but the A list celebrity who's done the best at this is Keanu Reeves, Who if you look into him, seems like a very humble life, seems like a genuinely do gooder, is not seeking attention left and right. And I'm sure I'm sure he hasn't done it perfectly, but when you see people who have gone out of their way to try to be somewhat normal, it's like good for you to fight back against this disease that the other celebrities don't even know that they've been afflicted with.

是啊。基努·里维斯是我朋友的表亲，我问'他这人怎么样？'朋友说'他就拥有一个篮球、一件连帽衫，好像住在汽车旅馆或酒店里'。

Yeah. Keanu Reeves is a friend of mine's cousin, and I was like, oh man, what's he like? You know? And he's like, well, he owns a basketball, a hoodie and I think he lives in a motel or a hotel.

太棒了。我超爱这一点，觉得这很了不起。

Totally. I I love that. I I think that's amazing.

没错。他会去公园打球——具体地点当然不能说——但就是会根据住处就近打篮球，懂吧？

Yeah. He goes and plays at a park. I won't say where obviously, but like he goes and plays basketball. It depends where he's staying. Right?

他会直接去公园或体育馆打篮球，参加临时组队的比赛，身边总围着一群搞艺术的朋友之类的人。有时候他会突然提议：‘我们干嘛不去罗马？听说那边有个超酷的活动。不如大家一起坐飞机去罗马吧？’然后其他人就附和说‘好啊，酷’，接着他们就真的去了，住酒店、闲逛、玩得不亦乐乎。

And he'll just go and play basketball at a park or a gym and he plays pickup games and he's got like his circle of artsy friends or something and sometimes he'll be like, why don't we go to Rome? I heard there's this like cool thing going on. Why don't we just all get get on a jet and go to Rome? And they're like, yeah, cool. And they go there and they stay in a hotel and they hang out and they have fun.

而且这帮人一直都是原班人马，显然已经维持很久了。他其实只有几套固定行头——当然可能到处都有衣服，毕竟这帮人经常能收到造型师和设计师送的免费东西。但我朋友说，他真正珍视的财产大概就是那件破旧的连帽衫和一颗篮球。

And it's the same crew of guys and it's been the same crew of guys for a long time apparently. And that's like he literally owns a few outfits. I mean, he's probably got clothes everywhere because those guys get free stuff given to them by stylists and designers all the time. But according to my friend, he really just like his prized possessions are like this ratty ass hoodie in a basketball.

我认为没有哪个明星——哪怕是十八线小明星——能逃过这种定律：几乎所有新认识的朋友，嗯，都想从你身上得到点什么。对，即使初衷单纯，他们也渴望与你关联带来的关注度，想要你拥有的资源人脉。

I think there's no celebrity forget a list, like even if you're talking about like a d list celebrity that virtually every new friend that you come across Mhmm. Wants something out of you. Yeah. Even if it's innocent, they want the attention of being associated with you. They want the connections that you're gonna have.

所以成名后结交的每种朋友都可能成为潜在负担。确实。像乔治·克鲁尼这样的人就很典型，他几乎只和成名前就认识的老朋友来往。

And therefore, every kind of friend that you meet after you become famous is a potential liability. Yeah. And I think there are a lot of these people. George Clooney, know is like this, who pretty much only hangs out with friends that he knew before he was famous.

哇哦。

Oh, wow.

这做法太明智了。听起来基努·里维斯也是这样，始终是同一批伙伴。他珍视这些友谊，我打赌这些朋友对待基努和乔治·克鲁尼就像对待普通人。

That's a brilliant thing to do. And it sounds like that's what Keanu Reeves is doing too. It's like it's always been the same crew. He values their friendship. And I bet those friends treat Keanu and George Clooney like they're just a normal dude.

没错。他们不会试图从他身上捞好处，他就只是个普通人。我喜欢他，但他真的就是个寻常哥们。

Yeah. They're not trying to get something out of him. It's just like he's just a guy. He's just a guy. I like him, but he's just a dude.

这可是件大事。我想这也解释了为什么会有这么多名人离婚。

And that's a big thing. I think it also explains why there's so many celebrity divorces.

哦，确实。

Oh, yeah.

如果你在成名时遇到某人，几乎不可能看透那层名气去接受真实的他们。

If you meet somebody when you're famous, it's almost impossible to see through that fame and accept the person for who they are.

而且很多这类关系都是人为制造的，伙计。你看这些情侣——是啊，我认识几个类似圈子的人，他们会说‘我现在和这人约会了’。我就问‘怎么认识的？’‘哦，在某节目的后台休息室’。

And a lot of that stuff is manufactured, man. You see these relationships Yeah. I have a few sort of adjacent circles of people like this and they'll say something like, yeah, I'm dating this person now. And I'm like, oh, how did you meet? Oh, we met in the green room of this show.

我就想‘你们俩不都忙得不可开交吗？她在音乐巡演，你也有其他行程，你在英国而她现在在美国’。他们却说‘是啊，我们每两三个月才见一两天’。我心想，这算什么真实关系？谁来点醒他们？根本是假的。

And I'm like, oh, well, aren't you guys both like really busy? She is a music tour, you've got your other tour and yours is in The UK and hers is in The US right now and they're like, yeah, we only see each other once every two or three months for like a night or two and I'm thinking, this is not a real relationship. Who's gonna tell them? Yeah. It's fake.

我知道你们享受被《人物》杂志关注的感觉——当你们难得同框出门时被拍下八十亿张照片。但除此之外，这段关系还剩什么？

I know you're enjoying the attention from People Magazine when you get spotted together the one day that you guys go out and you have 8,000,000,000 photos taken, but like what is actually happening outside of that?

我对此也有些同情。想象一下，如果你是近期恋情频频见报的泰勒·斯威夫特——以2023年的她为例。

I have some sympathy for that too. Yeah. Because imagine to take someone whose dating life has been in the press a lot lately. Imagine you're Taylor Swift in 2023.

我知道。

I know.

在这个世界上，你究竟如何找到真爱？我希望她能找到。也许她已经找到了。

How in the world do you find true love? I hope she does. Maybe she has already found it.

是啊，我也是。可怜的家伙。

Yeah. Me too. Poor thing.

但你怎么能想象泰勒·斯威夫特随便遇到一个男人就说，嘿，你想出去吃个饭互相了解一下吗？你在开玩笑吗？那可是泰勒·斯威夫特。

But how do you how does Taylor Swift meet a random guy and be like, hey, do you wanna go out to dinner and get to know each other? Are you kidding me? It's Taylor Swift.

是啊，这不可能发生。

Yeah. It doesn't happen.

你看看这个，然后当然，就像是在用小提琴演奏‘哭成一条河’，但这真糟糕。

And you look at that, and then, of course, it's like a tiny violin cry me a river, but that sucks.

太糟糕了

It sucks

当你变得如此出名以至于找不到真爱时，这真的很糟糕，而真爱可能是生活中唯一能让你真正快乐的东西。

for It sucks when you become so famous that you cannot find true love, which is maybe the one thing that's gonna make you actually happy in life.

是啊。我确实没怎么想过这个问题，尤其是这些人还这么年轻，这几乎是不可能的。

Yeah. I hadn't really thought about it, especially when these folks are so young, it's virtually impossible.

这让我想起了

It reminds me of is

杰夫·贝索斯的前妻，她后来好像和一个科学老师之类的人结婚了？对。然后因为她的财产分配，那个男人立刻成了世界上最富有的人之一，但他好像——我觉得他现在还是个科学老师。

it Jeff Bezos' ex wife who met like a science teacher or something like that and got married? Yeah. And he instantly became one of the wealthiest men in the world because of the amount of money that she but he's like not I think he's still a science teacher.

但你知道那个故事的结局吗？不知道吧？他们一年后就离婚了？

But you know the ending to that story? No. They got divorced a year later?

哦，我不知道这个。那太糟糕了。

Oh, I didn't know that. That sucks.

谁知道呢，我完全不了解细节。我甚至不想猜测。但也许当你遇到一个身价500亿的人时，即使你试图忽略这一点，也很难做到。

And who knows, I have no clue what the details were. I won't even try to guess. But maybe it's that when you meet somebody who's worth $50,000,000,000, it's hard to look past, even if you try to look past it.

是啊，天哪，我之前不知道这个。好吧，这个例子算是彻底被推翻了。补救得好。不过管理预期以及与他人比较。

Yeah. Oh man, I didn't know that. Well, goes that example blasted out of the water. Good save. Managing expectations though and comparing yourself to others.

这比看起来要难。对吧？因为我知道我们在说，就是别这么做。但现在似乎比以前更糟，因为有互联网。我不知道，二三十年前，如果我把自己和别人比较，那可能是办公室里的其他同事，或者和我一起长大的孩子，或者我社区里的其他人。

This is tougher than it seems. Right? Because I know we're talking like, just don't do it. But it seems like it's worse now than before because you have the Internet. I don't know, twenty thirty years ago, if I was comparing myself to people, it would be like other guys in the office or like the kids I grew up with or other people in my community.

现在却是和整个星球上的每个人比。阿桑·明哈吉有个笑话，说他得到了——我甚至不记得了——Instagram上的一百万粉丝，或者可能是一千万。然后他说，我爸就说，你听说过另一个来自巴基斯坦或印度的家伙吗？他有2400万粉丝。

Now it's just everyone in the whole planet. And Asan Minhaj has a joke that was like, he got, I don't even remember, a million followers on Instagram or maybe it was 10,000,000. And he's like, and my dad was like, have you heard of this other guy who's from Pakistan or India? He's like, he has 24,000,000 followers.

没错。

That's right.

哦，是啊。而且从来没人

Oh, yeah. And no one's ever

在西方听说过那个家伙，除非你是这种特定文化的人。而哈桑·明哈吉，怎么说呢，至少在美国是个非常知名的面孔。而他爸就是那种，我才不在乎呢，你远远比不上那个我们客厅里非法拷贝的宝莱坞电影里的家伙有名。

heard of that guy anywhere in the West unless you're of this particular culture. And Hassan Minaj is like, by all accounts, a very famous face in The United States at the very least. And his dad was just like, I don't care. You're nowhere near as famous as this guy who's on the Bollywood movies that we have illegally copied in the living room.

对。而且那个有2400万粉丝的宝莱坞明星又在和某个只有50粉丝的人比。对吧。这永远没完没了。是啊。

Right. And that Bollywood guy who has 24,000,000 followers is comparing himself to somebody who has 50. Right. It never ever ends. Yeah.

即便你已登峰造极，即便你是世界首富埃隆·马斯克，你仍会开始将自己与那些生活可能比你稍好的人比较。即便你比他们更有钱。是啊，埃隆·马斯克可能会想，唉，杰夫·贝索斯睡得比我多。他每晚能睡足八小时，而我却因为太忙做不到。所以这种攀比游戏永远不会结束。

And even when you're at the top, even when you're Elon Musk, richest man in the world, you start comparing yourself to people whose lives might be a little bit better than you. Even if you have more money to them Yeah. Elon Musk might be like, ugh, Jeff Bezos sleeps more than I do. Gets, you know, gets like, gets eight hours of sleep at night, and and I can't because I'm too busy. So like, that comparison game's never gonna end.

你说得对，就在过去五到十年间，由于社交媒体的影响，这种现象相比以往已经爆发式增长。我上周刚了解到，现在有些Instagram账号是假网红。它们是AI生成的网红。哦，我见过——那完全就是一张在某个海滩上、解剖学角度完美无缺的女性照片，但看起来百分之百真实。

You're right that just in the last five or ten years, it's gone supernova compared to what it's always been because of social media. I just learned this in the last week, that there are now these Instagram accounts that are of fake influence. They're AI influence. Oh, I've And seen it's literally like a picture of a woman who was absolutely anatomically perfect on the beach somewhere, but it looks a 100% real.

天啊。

Oh, man.

但这完全是假的，纯粹由AI生成。过去你只是在和全球其他俊男美女比较，这已经够糟了，因为那是精心剪辑的高光片段。现在直接是AI算法在扰乱你的大脑、扭曲你的期望。所以我认为，就在最近几个月，我们真的正在进入一个全新的世界。

But it's totally fake. It's just AI generated. And so now, it used to be that you were comparing yourself to other beautiful people around the world, and that was bad enough because it was a curated highlight reel. Now it's literally just an AI algorithm that's gonna be screwing with your brain and screwing with your expectations. And so I think even just in the last couple of months, literally, we're entering in this new world.

Instagram上还有那些展示豪宅内部的页面，很多人喜欢看这些来比较，比如‘如果我拥有这样的豪宅会怎样？’其实它们都是AI生成的。过去的情况是，你可能会在Zillow上找到一处漂亮房子的挂牌信息，那会激发你的兴趣，让你梦想拥有它。但现在连房子都不是真实存在的，全是AI生成的。是啊，这简直是在玩弄人们的心理。

There are these other Instagram pages of the inside of mansions that a lot of people like looking at to compare like, oh, what if I had this mansion? Same thing, they're AI generated. So it used to be like, oh, you would find a Zillow listing of a nice house, and that would like peak your interest, and you could dream about that. Now it's not even a real house, it's all AI generated. Yeah, now it's That's gonna be screwing with you.

所以我认为我们关注的是期望膨胀会带来完全不同的维度影响。我从我八岁的儿子身上就能看出来，他对‘美好生活’的定义与我八岁时完全不同。没错，我八岁时觉得美好生活就是拥有一辆新自行车，或者新旱冰鞋之类的。

So I think we're interested in a totally different dimension of what expectations inflation is gonna do. I can see it with my own son, who again is eight, about his definition of a good life, compared to what my definition was when I was eight is totally different. Yeah. But when I was eight, a good life was like a new bike Yeah. And new roller blades or something.

哦，是啊。因为他看Mr. Beast的视频，他的定义变成了拥有劳斯莱斯，或是给朋友一百万美元奖励他们完成某个恶作剧。对吧？完全是另一套期望标准。

Oh, yeah. His is like because he watches Mr. Beast, his definition is like a Rolls Royce and giving a million dollars to your friends for like competing some prank. Right. Oh, Totally different set of expectations.

是啊，这太残酷了。当孩子们想着，哦，我年轻时也该拥有三辆不同的跑车之类的。确实，这种想法非常不健康。

Yeah. That's brutal. When kids are thinking like, oh, I should also have three different sports cars when I'm younger or whatever. Yeah. That's really unhealthy.

关于人工智能这点你说得对，我之前没想到。过去我们只和那些用类固醇或做过一堆手术的人比较，现在却变成——何必受限于肉体通过药物和手术能达到的极限呢？

The AI thing, you're right. I hadn't thought about that. We used to just compare ourselves to people who are on steroids and or had a bunch of surgery. Now it's like, well, why be limited by what the

身体在药物和手术作用下能达到的极限？

body will do with the drugs and the surgery?

没错，现在完全是虚假的了。

Right, now it's just completely fake.

顺便说，这些账号会不断测试。比如把光线调暗10%会不会获得更多点赞？这将成为持续优化的过程，目标就是让你产生最强烈的自我厌恶——这些内容本质上就是在做这个：如何让你将自己的生活与虚构生活对比，最终只会感叹'要是我能那样该多好'。

And by those way, those accounts are gonna test constantly. Yeah. Oh, if we if we tweak the lighting by 10%, will it get more like it's gonna be a constant optimization towards what is gonna make you feel the worst about yourself, which is really what those are doing. About like how can you compare your life to this fake life in a way that's gonna make you just be like, oh, if only I had that.

是啊。我想唯一实现的方法就是活在虚拟现实环境里。这很快就变得像反乌托邦科幻小说了——现实中你住在16层地下的肮脏公寓，泡在维持生命的营养液里；而大脑却生活在另一个星球，那里有无限食物、金钱，你的胸部甚至不受重力和物理法则约束。

Yeah. Well, I guess the the way that you get that is what live in a virtual reality environment only. I mean, it it really just starts to become dystopian and weird really fast. Right? It's like a sci fi novel where your real life, you're in some dirty apartment that's 16 stories underground in a box floating in some goop that feeds you and gets rid of your excrement.

但你的大脑却生活在另一个星球上，那里有取之不尽的食粮和财富，你的双乳甚至不受重力与物理法则的束缚。

But your brain is living on another planet where you have unlimited food, unlimited money, and your boobs are not subject to the constraints of gravity and physics.

而且我觉得我们完全不知道这会对社会产生什么影响，因为你看，Instagram的算法可能已经优化了八年左右。而就在最近几个月，突然出现了这些AI账号，它们的行为模式完全不同。目前唯一能明确追踪并与此现象相关联的，就是青少年自杀率、抑郁率等指标的飙升——这些恰恰与社交媒体的兴起时间吻合。

And I feel like we have no idea what that's gonna do to society because like No. The Instagram algorithm has probably been optimized for like eight years. And now, just in the last couple months, we have these like AI accounts Yeah. That are doing something totally different. So the only thing that we know that has that is like very clear to track and has been associated with this cause is the rise in teenage suicide, depression, etcetera etcetera, is exploded at the same time social media came about.

所以在某些方面，我们根本预测不到后果，但可以确定的是绝对不乐观。这必将严重扭曲人们对生活的期待值。

So in some ways, have no idea what this is gonna do, but we know for quite certain it's not good. It's distinctly bad about what this is gonna do to people's expectations.

你刚才提到埃隆·马斯克，我很想聊聊那些非凡人物——他们的优点总是伴随着缺陷。我记得你讨论过或写过这个观点，我特别认同...

You mentioned Elon Musk a little while ago. I would love to talk about amazing personalities and how the bad has to come with the good. I've heard you talk about this or maybe you wrote about this. And I love the idea and

这个概念我是从瑞安·霍利迪那里学到的：如果

I think I got this from Ryan Holiday that if

你想拥有别人的人生，就必须用你的整个人生来交换。最近我常思考这个，因为每当...这就像解药，能治愈你与他人的比较心理。比如你会想：'真希望我的节目能像那个一样火'，但转头又羡慕别人的身材。这时候就要提醒自己：等等，打住——

you want someone else's life, you have to trade for their entire life. And I've been thinking about this a lot lately because whenever you this is like the antidote to comparing yourself to a lot of people because you go, oh man, you know, I wish that my show was as big as this one, but then I also want my physique to be like this person. It's like, woah, woah, wait.

你必须全盘接受。

You gotta take it all.

你不可能只继承那个人的身材，除非你愿意付出代价——他们怎么练出来的？每天健身八小时？服用增强表现的药物？还是天生基因好？又比如你羡慕某档节目的规模，但要知道那位主持人根本不睡觉。

You can't have the physique of this person unless you trade how did they get that physique? Oh yeah, they work out eight hours a day and they take performance enhancing drugs and also they have really good genetics. But I want my show to be this big. Okay. Well, you know that guy doesn't sleep.

对吧？而且他在开始这个节目之前，作为另一个知名人物已经享受了无数年的免费广告宣传。为了达到这一点，他不得不在好莱坞做了多年默默无闻的脱口秀演员，过着相当糟糕的生活。他没上过大学，事实上连高中都没读完。

Right? And he's also had a gajillion dollars in free advertising for being this other famous personality for years and years and years before he even started the show. And in order to do that, he had to live a pretty crappy life as like a open mic comedian for years and years and years in Hollywood. And he didn't go to college. In fact, he dropped out of high school.

然后你就会想，哦，我不确定是否还想要这样的生活。是啊。当你看着那些科学家之类的人，还有那些想成为埃隆·马斯克的人时，就会觉得——好吧，但他不是有六个名字像符号一样的孩子吗？可能都没时间经常见到他们。他的感情生活真的健康吗？我知道他至少离过一两次婚，你真的想成为那样的人吗？就连埃隆自己在乔·罗根节目上也说过：你们未必愿意成为我。

And you're just like, oh, I don't know if I want this anymore. Yeah. And you start looking at these scientists and stuff like that and all these people that wanna be Elon Musk and it's like, okay, but doesn't he have like six kids with names that are symbols and he probably doesn't see them all the time and you know, does he have functional relationships? I know he's got at least one or two divorces like, do you really wanna be that guy? Even Elon said, think on Joe Rogan, you wouldn't necessarily wanna be me.

他说这话是认真的。

He meant that shit.

没错。我经常想到一个数据：全球前十的富豪加起来共有14次离婚，远高于全国平均水平。当然样本量很小，但确实，那些取得非凡成功和巨额财富的人，往往都付出了相应的代价。

Right. I mean, the stat I think about a lot is that among the top 10 richest men in the world, there are a cumulative 14 divorces among those top 10. Like, way more than the national average. Of course, it's a small sample size and whatnot. But, yeah, most of those people who have outsized success and outsized wealth, there's a cost that came with it.

你可以精确计算他们的净资产，却很难衡量他们为此付出的代价。比尔和梅琳达·盖茨就是例子。我来自西雅图，他们就像西雅图的国王与王后。虽然很多人对他有不同看法，但单就成就而言——他创建了同时代最成功的公司，成为世界首富，然后用财富来抗击疟疾等等。

And you can measure their net worth very accurately, but it's very hard to measure the cost that they put into it. We saw this with Bill and Melinda Gates too. I'm from Seattle. So Bill and Melinda Gates were like the king and queen of Seattle. And a lot of people a lot of people have their views about him, but if you just view it as built the most successful company of his generation, became the richest man in the world, and then used that wealth to try to like cure malaria and whatnot.

这简直是传奇人生。

It's like, what an amazing life.

嗯。

Mhmm.

但过去两年里你看到的实际情况是，他的私生活一团糟。是的，糟糕透顶。大卫·布鲁克斯有篇报道，大概十到十五年前，我记得是2005年2月左右，里面说茱莉亚·罗伯茨这周遇到两件事：第一，她赢得了奥斯卡奖。

But then you saw in the last two years that actually his private life was terrible. Yeah. It was awful. There was this article from David Brooks, this was ten or fifteen years ago, I think it was like 02/2005, where he said, okay, two things happened to Julia Roberts this week. Number one, she won an Oscar.

第二，她发现丈夫出轨了。那么问题来了：茱莉亚·罗伯茨这周过得好吗？大多数人只会盯着奥斯卡奖说，她这周棒极了。但你会觉得，不，这可能是她人生中最糟糕的一周。

Number two, she found out that her husband was cheating on her. So the question is, did Julia Roberts have a good week? And most people would just focus on the Oscar and be like, yeah, she had a great week. You're like, no, she had probably the worst week of her life.

是啊。

Yeah.

就像你说的，你不能挑挑拣拣只选想要的部分，必须全盘接受。之所以要全盘接受，是因为你看到的美好事物往往伴随着糟糕的部分——那些美好恰恰是由糟糕的代价换来的。比如这个人之所以如此富有，是因为每周工作100小时；而正因如此，他离了五次婚。这些事总是相伴相生的。

To your point of you can't pick and choose which parts you want, you have to take it all as a whole. The reason you have to take it all as a whole is because the good things that you were looking at came with the bad things. Like, they happened because of the bad things, the costs that came with it. So the reason this person is so rich is because they worked a hundred hours a week, and because they worked a hundred hours a week, they're on their fifth divorce, whatever it might be. Those things go hand in hand with each other.

我觉得埃隆·马斯克身上还有另一个层面：人们想要一个跳出框架思考的疯狂天才，发明新技术，创建伟大企业，但同时希望这个人保持社交礼仪，说话得体，政治正确等等。但事实是——用这个糟糕的比喻来说——马斯克之所以能'跳出框架'思考，嗯哼，正是因为他是个疯子。没错。而正因他是个疯子，他也会做出其他让你反感的疯狂举动。

I think there's another element of this with Elon Musk, where it's like, people want a crazy genius who thinks outside of the box, and comes up with these new technologies, builds amazing companies, but they want that person to also have like social decorum, and to say the right things, and to be PC and whatnot. Like, The reason Elon Musk thinks outside of the box, to use that very bad phrase, like Uh-huh. Is because he's a maniac. Yeah. And because he's a maniac, he's gonna do all these other maniacal things that you won't like.

所以如果你喜欢某人是因为他以你意想不到的方式思考世界，那么这个人同样会以你不喜欢的方式思考世界。你必须同时接受这两面。

So if you like somebody because they think about the world in ways that are different from you, that person is also gonna think about the world in ways that you don't like. You have to take them both at the same time.

顺便说句题外话，我要打个补丁。这并非说不能向这些人学习，也不是为平庸找借口。但如果你想像那些顶尖人物一样工作，就真的需要每周投入100小时在事业上，并牺牲家庭目标。当然可能有例外，比如你能优化时间之类的。但你会发现人们总拿自己和这些人比较，却忽略了对方有三个不愿和他说话的孩子。

By the way, I wanna caveat this. Right? It's not that you can't learn from these people or that this is an excuse for mediocrity or whatever, but you really do need to dedicate hundred hours a week to your business and abandon your family goals if you wanna do the same level of work as the other people who are doing exactly that. Maybe there's exceptions to this of course, if you can optimize or whatever. But you find people comparing themselves to these other people and it's like, okay, but that person has three kids that don't talk to him.

是的，正是如此。

Yes, exactly.

还有两次离婚。你真的想要那样吗？看看他对这家公司做了什么。很棒。但再次强调，疏远的妻子，疏远的孩子，可能甚至不知道自己有没有孙辈，圣诞节连个回电都等不到。

And two divorces. Do you really want that? Well, look at what he's done with this company. Great. But again, estranged wife, estranged children, probably doesn't even know if he has grandkids, can't get a callback on Christmas.

比如，你想成为那种人吗？我觉得你不会。

Like, do you wanna be that guy? I don't think so.

我认为对那些人中的许多——也许不是全部，但很多人来说，当他们晚上躺在床上时，他们在想什么？是在想他们的银行账户，还是在想他们的孩子不跟他们说话的事实？

And I think for a lot of those guys, maybe not all of them, but a lot of them, when they go to bed at night, what are they thinking about? Are they thinking about their bank account or are they thinking about the fact that their kids don't talk to them?

是啊。

Yeah.

很可能是后者。他们灵魂深处真正想要的是什么？很可能就是他们放弃的东西。所以我经常思考这个问题。我读了很多商业传记。

And it's probably the latter. Like what's actually in their soul that they want? It's probably the thing that they gave up. And so I think about that quite a bit. I read a lot of business biographies.

嗯。它们太引人入胜了。但几乎没有例外，我读完一本关于企业家的传记后，会对自己说，我想要那个人的生活。通常情况恰恰相反。是的。

Mhmm. They're so fascinating. And with very few exceptions, have I finished a biography about an entrepreneur and thought to myself, I want that person's life. It's usually the opposite. Yeah.

通常那个人会让人着迷，我学到了很多，但天哪，听起来那简直是糟糕透顶的生活。

It's usually that person's fascinating, I learned a lot, but holy shit, that sounds like a terrible life.

确实。就像史蒂夫·乔布斯那样，对吧？他是个极其固执的思想家，后来得了癌症却想用水果治疗，结果不幸去世，本来或许不必如此。哎呀。

Sure. Even something like Steve Jobs, right? He was this very stubborn thinker and then he got cancer and wanted to treat it with fruit and ended up dying and probably didn't have to. Oops.

也许这样说不准确。我只是瞎猜，但那种拒绝手术、坚持吃苹果治愈癌症的性格，可能正是让史蒂夫·乔布斯能断言‘你们搞技术的方式都糟透了，我要按自己的来’的同一性格。

Maybe this isn't right. I'm just making this up but maybe that personality that said, no surgery, I'm gonna eat apples and it's gonna cure my cancer, is the same personality that Steve Jobs had to say, all the other ways that you're building technology sucks, I'm gonna do it my own

我认为正是如此。

I think it is that.

对。就是那种固执，比如‘去他的传统，我就要走自己的路’。

Yes. Like that stubborn, like screw the establishment, I'm gonna do it my way.

没错。

Right.

正是这种特质让他成功，虽然这么说可能显得很武断，但或许也正是这要了他的命。

It's what made him successful and maybe this is like so judgmental, but maybe it also killed him.

我同意你的看法。仅基于艾萨克森的传记——这也是我对这个人的全部了解——我认为事情确实如此。但我也不确定。

I agree with you. I I definitely think just based on Isaacson's biography, which is all I know of the man. Right? That that's what happened. And I don't know.

如果能问问沃尔特·艾萨克森的想法会很有趣。不过他大概会说'去看书吧，我的观点都在书里了'。这就是我从书中得到的结论。但确实，正是这些性格特质让一个人在某个领域成功，却可能在别处格格不入。

It'd be interesting to ask Walter Isaacson what he thinks. Yeah. Although I he'd just say read the book because my opinion is basically in there. So and then that's what I got from the book. But yeah, you need these personality trade offs that make someone successful in one realm, but maybe a total outcast elsewhere.

你根本无法挑挑拣拣。虽然这么想很美好，但现实就是不行。天啊，我连一半笔记都没讲完，不过我们明年应该再请你来一次。让我们再续前缘。

You just cannot pick and choose. It's nice to think you can, but you just can't. Man, I didn't even get through like half my notes, but we should have you back sometime maybe next year. Let's have it again.

这次对话很有趣。

This has been fun.

是啊。摩根·豪塞尔，后会有期，老兄。非常感谢你参加节目。太有意思了！再说一次，我连一半笔记都没用完。

Yeah. Morgan Housel, until we meet again, man. Thank you so much for coming on the show. So interesting, man. And again, only got through like half my notes.