多邻国的兴衰

欢迎各位今天收看约瑟夫·卡尔森节目，今天聚焦多邻国。这只股票牵动众人心弦，单日跌幅高达29%，股价遭遇重创。究竟为何如此？

Welcome everyone today on the Joseph Carlson show, Duolingo. The stock that's on everyone's mind. It's down a staggering 29% on the day. The stock price is being obliterated. And why is that?

显然，股票正被重新评级，因为投资者担忧其未来增长放缓。当一只高估值股票（交易倍数较高）出现任何增长疑虑时，投资者就会抛售股票，大幅调低其评级。这正是我们眼前发生的情景，这明显是一次价值重估事件。对此我有些经验——之前奈飞就曾经历过类似情况。

Well, the stock is obviously being re rated because investors are now concerned about its future deceleration in growth. Now, anytime a highly rated stock, one that's trading at a higher multiple, has any concerns with its growth, investors sell out of the stock, they rate it much lower. And that's what we're seeing happen here. So this is clearly a rerating event. And this is something that I have a little bit of experience within the past with Netflix.

奈飞也曾一度引发投资者担忧，导致股票被迅速重估至更低倍数，股价从高点下跌75%。面对多邻国当前处境，我们该如何应对？是清仓离场？认亏止损？通过税务亏损收割后转向其他投资？

That was another stock that concerned investors for a time and investors quickly rerated the stock to a much lower multiple causing it to fall 75% from the highs. So given this situation with Duolingo, what do we do? Do we sell out of the position? Do we accept our losses? Do some tax loss harvesting and move on?

还是继续持仓？亦或加仓抄底？投资者在此类情境下有多种选择。在多邻国这类股票暴跌的特殊时刻，当下的决策往往会在很大程度上决定未来收益。接下来我们将深入分析多邻国，包括企业基本面和管理层的最新解读。

Do we hold the position? Do we buy more and double down? There's a number of options available to investors in these situations. And what investors do in these specific scenarios, in these exact situations where stock like Duolingo sells off dramatically, what we do now can in many cases determine your future returns to a huge extent. So we'll be talking about Duolingo and I'll be going over some of the fundamentals of the business as well as commentary from the management.

管理层昨日的财报电话会议堪称我最欣赏的一次，其展现的战略视野令人叹服。我想重点分享CEO在会议中提到的若干要点。我们将全面审视投资组合、仓位配置，以及多邻国造成的所有损失。

Management held an earnings call yesterday that I will admit was one of my favorite earnings calls ever. It was incredible to listen to, the vision of this management. And I wanna go ahead and highlight some of the things that the CEO said on this call. So we'll be looking at everything. We'll be looking at the portfolio, the position sizing, all of the damage being done by Duolingo.

我们会逐一剖析。当然还有其他消息：谷歌再次发力，成为今日惨淡市场中罕见的飘红个股。谷歌目前是我绝对的第一大持仓。

We'll go over all of it. Now, of course, have other news to get to. Google is on the move again. It's one of the rare stocks that at least right now is in the green on this red day. Google is by far my largest position.

能以谷歌作为最大持仓股我深感自豪，正如我多次强调的，从未见过哪只股票能同时汇聚如此多利好因素。如今谷歌又推出最强AI芯片，以定制硅片直指英伟达——这家公司正在全方位发力。

It's one that I'm very proud to have as my largest position, because like I've said many times, I've never seen so many good things going on with a single stock. It's incredible. And this is just one more thing to add to the list. Google's now rolling out its most powerful AI chip, taking aim at Nvidia with custom silicon. This company's doing it all.

我们即将全面展开。首先会关注谷歌的最新进展。最后，虽然本周已经有过一次'本周失败案例'，但我们还有第二个，所以这周有两个失败案例。这次的主角是Chipotle，这家连锁餐厅正面临困境。

It's just doing it all. We're gonna be looking at Google's advancements. And then finally, we've already had a fail of the week this week, but we have a second one, so that's two fails of the week. And in this case, it's going to be Chipotle. Chipotle is struggling.

门店客流量持续下滑，顾客怨声载道。主要原因之一就是餐品份量时大时小。有时能拿到巨型卷饼，有时却只有迷你版，完全像在玩概率游戏。去Chipotle用餐简直像在赌运气。

Unit volume is going down. Customers are frustrated. And one of the primary reasons is the inconsistent portion sizes. Sometimes you get a big burrito, sometimes you get a small burrito, you never know. It feels like a gamble going to Chipotle.

本期节目我将彻底解决Chipotle的问题。我手握解决方案，能让这家企业重回正轨。稍后我们会详细解析这个改革方案。本期内容非常充实，有很多要点需要探讨。

And in this episode, I will be fixing Chipotle. I have the solution, I have the answer. I can fix this company and get it back on track. We'll be going over that fix. So we have a ton to get to in this episode, a lot to go over.

马上进入正题前先插播一条消息：我已推出Qualtrum直营服务，现在无需通过Patreon即可注册Qualtrum并加入Joseph Carlson秀的Discord社区。每月仅需10美元，就能享受qualtrum.com全站权限和所有附加服务，同时包含Joseph Carlson秀的Discord会员资格，性价比极高。

We're gonna be jumping into all of it. Just a quick mention before we jump in. I have launched Qualtrum Direct, meaning that you no longer need to go to Patreon to sign up for Qualtrum and join the Joseph Carlson Show Discord community. Now, this is a great value because you get both qualtrum.com, full access to it, the entire website, all the benefits, all the bells and whistles for $10 a month. And you also get the Joseph Carlson show Discord included with that.

没有任何隐藏消费或交叉销售，所有服务打包提供。您可以直接在qualtrum.com注册，完全跳过Patreon。我们提供两种方案：10美元/月套餐包含7天免费试用；若成为年度会员，月均仅需8.25美元（按年付费）。

So there's no upsells, there's no cross selling, it's all just one thing. And you can sign up directly on qualtrum.com without ever using Patreon. There's two different plans. One of them is $10 a month, you get a free trial, a seven day free trial. The other one, if you really love the service, you can pay $8.25 a month on average billed once a year.

这就是年度优惠方案。无论选择哪种都物超所值。目前用户数已突破11,000人，仅上周就有800名新用户注册。感谢各位的试用，我们收到了潮水般的好评。

So this is the annual plan. Either way you pay, it's dirt cheap. We now have above 11,000 users. In the past week alone, we've had 800 people sign up. So I appreciate everyone for trying it out and the reviews have been overwhelming.

听到用户们分享'产品太棒了'、'这正是我一直在寻找的'这样的体验反馈，真的令人振奋。我们收到了大量此类评价。感谢所有人的支持，希望大家都能获得满意体验。

I mean, it's just, it's awesome to hear people's great experiences with the product saying, This is amazing. I've tried it out. It's exactly what I've been looking for. We're getting a lot of that. So I appreciate everybody and hope you have a good experience with it.

现在让我们开始吧。关于多邻国，我想首先提到的是我们可以看看我的持仓规模，因为这不仅仅是一只股票，而是我投资组合中的一部分。现在它被纳入了故事基金，就在这里。如果我们观察故事基金，可以说这是一个更具进取性的投资组合。总体而言，这些股票波动性更大，更具攻击性，增长也更快。

Now let's go ahead and jump in. The first thing I wanna mention with Duolingo is we can look at my position sizing because this isn't just some stock, this is one that's in my portfolio. Now it's in the story fund and here we have it. If we look at the story fund, this is a little bit more of an aggressive portfolio, so to speak. In general, these stocks are more volatile, they're more aggressive, they're faster growing.

你还会注意到一个共同点——它们几乎都是订阅制公司或数据公司。这些公司提供的产品会被用户长期使用，因此不属于交易型公司。你不像与汽车公司打交道那样，体验一次就结束了。

And you'll also notice a theme that they're almost always subscription based companies or they're data companies. They offer products that people use for a very long period of time. So they're not very transactional companies. These aren't ones that you have an experience with once and then you leave. So they're not like car companies.

这些公司的产品会融入你的生活。你时刻都在使用它们，成为你日常routine的一部分。想想亚马逊——它已成为我生活中不可或缺的产品，我对亚马逊具有极高的终身价值。

These are companies where you live with the product. You use it all the time. It becomes part of your daily routine. Think about the fact that Amazon is a product that is a part of my life. I have immense lifetime value with Amazon.

奈飞也是如此。我想我会终身保持会员资格。谷歌也一样——我每天都在使用他们的产品，无时无刻。微软也是如此。

Netflix as well. I think I'm gonna have a membership for the rest of my life. Same with Google. I use their products every single day, all day, all the time. Microsoft, the same thing.

然后是标普全球。这家公司有些不同，因为它相对独立，但又深深植根于所有市场之中。但多邻国更符合我们讨论的特质。尽管股价波动剧烈，这家公司却拥有庞大的用户基础——每天有5000万人在使用，月活用户甚至更多。

Then we have S and P Global. This one is a bit different because it's more detached, but it is ingrained and embedded in all of the markets. But then we have more of this with Duolingo. This is another stock that despite the volatility, despite the fact that the stock price is all over the place, this is a company that people use all the time. 50,000,000 people are using this every single day, 50,000,000 a day and even more on a monthly basis.

在分析现状和我的计划之前，我想强调关于多邻国的一个重点：持仓规模。多邻国始终是小仓位配置。这是有意为之的——我刻意将其设为小仓位，因为我清楚该公司固有的风险和波动性。作为小公司，其股价波动更为剧烈。

Now, the thing that I wanna highlight with Duolingo before we even get into the analysis of what's going on and what I plan on doing is I wanna emphasize one point and that is position size. Duolingo has always been a small sized position. And the reasons for that were intentional. I intentionally put it as a smaller position because I recognize the inherent risk and volatility in the company. It is a small company, meaning that it has higher levels of volatility.

较少的资金就能导致股价大幅波动（无论涨跌），这会加剧波动性，从而在很多情况下增加风险。当股价上涨50%或下跌50%时，继续持有会变得困难得多。因此波动性是我保持小仓位的原因之一。另一个原因是该公司相比其他持仓企业成熟度较低——比如没人能合理主张多邻国比谷歌、奈飞或亚马逊拥有更稳固的护城河和商业模式。

Smaller levels of capital move the stock more, either up or down. That increases the amount of volatility, which in many cases increases the amount of risk because when stocks go up 50% or down 50%, it can become much more difficult to hang onto that company. So volatility was part of the reason that I kept it as a smaller position. Another reason why is because the company is less established than many other positions. For example, no one can reasonably argue that Duolingo has a much more proven moat and proven business model than Google, Netflix, or Amazon.

事实就是如此。谷歌、亚马逊和奈飞这些股票已被充分验证，它们处于更稳定的状态，也更加成熟。而十年前的奈飞，你或许可以说它们不相上下，但当时的奈飞确实更具不确定性。

You just can't. Google, Amazon, and Netflix are just way more proven stocks. They're more at a steady state, they're more mature. Now Netflix ten years ago, then you could argue that they're on par with each other. Netflix ten years ago was a bit more dicey.

可以说风险更高。但这就是多邻国现在的处境，它还处于发展初期。与其他公司相比，其概率和结果分布范围更广。不过我已综合考虑所有风险因素，评估后决定将其作为2%的小仓位配置。

It was a bit more risky, so to speak. But that's where Duolingo is now. It's earlier in its arc. The probabilities, the outcome distribution is wider than these other companies. Now, having said that, I've taken in all of these risk factors and I assessed that this stock needed to be a smaller position and I sized it as a 2% position.

我们直接来看看具体数据。在Qualtrum上，我可以分别查看被动收入组合和Story基金，也能合并查看。先看合并视图：顶部是谷歌，占比13%。

Let's go ahead and just take a look at how this looks. On Qualtrum, I can look at my passive income portfolio and the Story Fund or I can look at them combined. So let's go ahead and just take a look at them combined for a minute. We have here at the top Google. Google is a 13 position.

其中大部分是增值部分。谷歌股票已实现7.2万美元的收益（不含分红），其余是本金投入。我个人已累计购入超过10万美元的谷歌股票。

A lot of that is growth. Google stock has grown to $72,000 in gains, not counting dividends paid. And then the rest of it is deposits. I've deposited into Google. I've purchased myself over $100,000 of Google stock.

我在不同股价阶段持续重仓谷歌，因为极度看好这家公司。目前谷歌持仓总值约17.2万美元（含7.2万收益）。亚马逊占11%，标普全球9%-10%，奈飞10%——这些公司都创造了巨额收益。继续往下看列表。

So an enormous amount of money has been spent on Google at all varying stock prices because I'm so bullish on this company. But Google's also grown with 72,000. So it's roughly a $172,000 position. Now we also have Amazon 11%, S and P Global 9% or 10%, Netflix 10%, then all of these companies have made massive gains. Then we scroll down the list.

其他持仓比例分别为6%、8%、5%、4%，艾可菲占3%，连已减持一半的德州路屋仍占3.2%。目前多邻国持仓不足1%，部分原因是股价腰斩导致1.1万美元亏损。减持前原本是2%仓位，现在缩水至1%。

We have all these holdings, 6%, 8%, 5%, 4%, 3% for Equifax, even Texas Roadhouse, which I sold off half my position is a 3.2% position. Right now Duolingo is less than a 1% position. Now that's partly because it's sold off by half the position. It's down $11,000 Before this company sold off, it was a 2% position. So it went from 2%, it's down 50%, now it's at a 1% position.

这意味着多邻国的低迷使我的投资组合净值受到1%的冲击。必须承认，1%的损失令人不快——我期望每笔投资都能成功，也始终致力于做出明智决策，所以这个结果确实不理想。

Meaning the total impact on my portfolio, the NAV of my portfolio was dinged by 1% because of Duolingo's underperformance. Now I'll admit having a 1% hit to my portfolio is not fun. I want every single stock I make to be a successful one. I try hard to make good investments. So it's not good.

我并非因股票下跌50%且投资组合损失1%而庆祝。但提及此事的原因在于审视仓位规模的重要性。当我们观察他人投资时，往往只看到持仓列表，但了解每项持仓的具体金额至关重要。例如我个人投入多邻国的总金额是2万美元——这就是我的投入上限。因此我在该股票上最多可能损失约2万美元。而谷歌的投入金额是其五倍。

I'm not celebrating that the stock is down 50% and that it's a 1% hit to my portfolio. But the reason that I bring this up is because it's important to look at position sizing. A lot of times when we look at other people's investments, we just see a list of holdings, but looking at how much money they have in every holding is incredibly important. For example, the total amount that I've put into Duolingo myself is $20,000 That's what I've contributed. So the most that I can lose on the stock is around $20,000 Now with Google, I've contributed five times that amount.

这意味着我对谷歌的投入达10万美元，是其五倍于多邻国的仓位规模。这反映了我对两支股票的不同信心等级。这不应被解读为看空多邻国，只是我认为它值得配置更少的资金——我认为这才是审慎的投资方式。

So it's a $100,000 contribution to Google. So Google's over five times the size of my contribution to Duolingo. And that represents my levels of conviction in these stocks. Now that shouldn't be interpreted as me being bearish on Duolingo, but I just believe that it's deserving of a smaller amount of capital. I think that's prudent investing.

其实我早前就强调过这点，这也是我数月来反复重申的观点。三个月前我曾表示：较之成熟企业，多邻国市值更小、波动更高、投资逻辑更依赖持续高增长率、且仅具备部分经证实的护城河——这些因素共同决定了其较小的仓位占比。当人们持续追问为何该股在我组合中占比如此之小时，我在Discord上就是这样解释的。因此我对股价暴跌并不陌生。

And I've highlighted this before today. This is something that again, I've been saying for months. Three months ago, I said, it's fair to say that a much smaller market cap, higher volatility, a thesis more heavily dependent on continual high growth rates, and only a partially proven durable moat are all factors in the smaller size position for Duolingo compared to other more established companies. That's what I wrote on my Discord a couple months ago when I was continually asked about why the stock is such a small position in my portfolio. So I've had experience with stocks dropping.

事实上，我亲眼见证过类似的价值重估事件，比如多年前的奈飞案例。当时奈飞是我的第一大持仓，我对这支股票极度看好，甚至难以抑制对公司的兴奋之情，为此制作了大量相关视频内容。

In fact, I've seen rerating events like this happen before firsthand, one time with Netflix. Years ago, I had Netflix as my top position. Netflix was a stock that I was so bullish on. I couldn't even contain my excitement about the company. I made video after video about the stock.

你可以回溯这个频道2020至2022年间的记录，会发现大量关于奈飞的内容。后来奈飞遭遇预期增长困境，公司不仅宣布用户停止增长，实际上还出现了用户流失。

You can go back and look at this very channel, look at around 2020, 2021, 2022. That's where you'll see a lot of content about Netflix. Netflix ran into troubles with future expected growth. They said that they're not only not growing with subscribers, they're actually churning. They're gonna lose some subscribers.

当时奈飞流失了约百万用户，华尔街对此反应消极。股价估值原本建立在持续高速增长预期上，当公司向投资者表明增长将放缓、甚至可能缺乏可拓展的市场空间时，市场情绪迅速转为极度悲观。这类情况往往令人猝不及防。

They're gonna lose about a million subscribers. Wall Street didn't like that. The stock price valuation was rated and dependent on continued fast future growth. When Netflix indicated to investors that growth is gonna be upset, that growth is gonna be much slower than expected, that they may not even have a total addressable market to grow into, investors became incredibly bearish on the company incredibly fast. And in many cases, this can catch you off guard.

我就深受其害。作为当时的最大持仓，我完全没预料到奈飞会暴跌75%。该股连续两个季度下挫，最终从高点下跌四分之三，我的核心持仓就这样被彻底摧毁。

It did with me. I didn't know that Netflix is gonna sell off 75%. After all, I had it as my largest position. So Netflix began to sell off quarter after quarter, two consecutive quarters and it sold down 75% from the highs. My top position was completely obliterated.

那真是压力山大，发生这种事一点都不愉快。自那以后，我在投资那些依赖持续高增长率的公司时就格外谨慎，尤其是那些业务模式不够稳定、波动性较大的企业。以奈飞为例，它曾是我的最大持仓，那次事件对我的投资组合造成了相当惨重的损失。

Now that was really stressful. That was not a fun thing to have happen. And ever since then, I've been careful when I invest in companies that are dependent on continued high growth rates, ones that have a lesser established and more volatile story. In that case, Netflix was my biggest position. So that was a pretty tragic event for my portfolio.

这次多邻国只是我的最小仓位，算不上悲剧性事件。从长期来看，这不会对投资组合表现产生实质影响。目前仅造成投资组合1%的损失。不过无论如何，我都不喜欢自己持有的股票下跌。

In this case, Duolingo is my smallest position. It is not a tragic event. This isn't something that's really gonna impact the portfolio performance over the long term. It is so far a 1% ding to the portfolio. Now, in any case, I don't like it when my stocks go down.

我希望所有投资都能表现良好，包括多邻国这样的小仓位。我投入2万美元买这只股票就是为了赚钱。现在让我们仔细分析当前情况：该股正在被重新评级，已下跌30%。这类抛售现象通常有特定原因。

I want all my investments to do well, including Duolingo, including even my small positions. I put the $20,000 into this stock because I wanna make money with it. So let's go ahead and just take a look at the situation that we're in. The stock is being rerated, it's down 30%. And these type of sell offs happen for specific reasons.

这是因为投资者认定该公司不再配得上曾经的高估值倍数，因此将其评级下调。最常见的原因就是企业依赖高增长模式。投资者原本预期并认可其高增长潜力，即公司营收的高速增长。而迄今为止多邻国确实实现了营收增长。

They happen because investors have determined that this company no longer deserves the premium multiple that it once traded at. So they rerate it down to a lower rating. The most common reason why is because this company is dependent on high growth. Investors have outlined and underwritten high amounts of growth, revenue growth of the company. And so far Duolingo has delivered on that revenue growth.

你可以看到其营收增速高达41%，且未来持续增长。但多邻国在财报中给出了增长可能放缓的信号，这引起了投资者担忧。在财报展望2025年及之后的部分，他们提到了一个叫'预订额'的指标——第四季度预订额。

You can see the very fast revenue growth, it growing 41%, it continued growing in the future. But Duolingo gave investors a reason to be concerned that growth may be decelerating. And that was in their earnings report. In their earnings report, they go over everything, but I wanna skip to the 2025 outlook and beyond. When we look at the 2025 outlook, they have something here called bookings, the Q4 bookings.

下季度同比增长22%（按固定汇率计算中值增长19%）。这个数据之所以关键，是因为华尔街原本预期其预订额增速约为24%，而实际指引低于该预期。华尔街的反应是：他们不仅没达到预订额预期，甚至相差甚远，增速低于我们的预估。

So next quarter to grow 22% year over year or 19% on a constant currency basis at the midpoint. Now, why is this important? It's important because Wall Street believed that they were gonna grow their bookings at around 24%, which is more than what they said they're going to grow. So Wall Street's saying, Oh wow, not only did they not meet their booking estimates or exceed it, but they didn't even come close. They're below what we expected them to grow.

于是我们看到一家增长不及预期的公司。那么什么是预订额增长？它类似于年度摊销的订阅用户数和营收增量。简言之，多邻国本季度确认的营收来自去年的预订额，而今年获得的预订额将构成明年的营收。

And so we see a company that's growing slower than expected. Now, what is the booking growth? The booking growth is like the amount of subscribers and the amount of revenue they're gaining that's amortized over a year. So way to think of this is right now, the revenue that Duolingo's receiving this quarter is bookings they got last year. Meaning that the bookings they get this year is gonna be the revenue they receive next year.

因此，预订量是未来的预览，而这一预览显示收入正在放缓。当一家公司以溢价倍数定价，而收入放缓超出预期时，股价就会重新评级。这就是今天股价下跌的唯一原因——正是那个预订数字。不过，如果我们看看其他方面，这份报告其实有很多积极因素。

So bookings are a preview of the future and the preview of the future shows revenue slowing down. When a company's priced at a premium multiple and revenue slows down further than expected, you get stock prices rerated. So that is the single reason the stock is down today. It is that booking number. Now, if we look at other things, I think there's actually a lot of positives in this report.

我想在这里重点讨论其中几点。如果我们看公司的整体订阅收入，它正以惊人的速度增长。事实上，订阅收入增长了45%。订阅收入约占其总收入的90%，因为他们是一家基于订阅模式的公司。从最近这个季度来看，我看到了惊人的经济效益。

And I wanna go over a handful of them here. If we look at the overall subscription revenue of the company, it is growing incredibly fast. In fact, the subscription revenue grew by 45%. Subscription revenue makes up around 90% of their total revenue because they are a subscription based company. What I see here with this most recent quarter is incredible economics.

这家公司正在逐步扩大订阅用户基础。这些用户也爱上了他们的产品，每天都在使用。我们从其他数据中也能看到这一点。例如，月活跃用户数——这在一个季度前还是个令人担忧的大问题。

You have a company that is growing the subscription base over time. These users are also falling in love with the product using it every single day. And we see that in the other numbers. For example, we have the monthly active users. This was a big scary point just a quarter ago.

还记得多邻国在一个季度前的大问题吗？他们的月活跃用户数实际下降了。确实下降了。当时所有人都担心月活下降——还会再增长吗？是不是因为AI正在侵蚀多邻国的护城河？

Remember a big problem with Duolingo a quarter ago was that their monthly active users actually declined. It declined. Oh no, everybody was concerned about the monthly active users going down. Will it ever grow again? Was this because AI is eating away at Duolingo's moat?

是不是因为谷歌翻译在抢走客户？但这个季度证明这些担忧是错的。月活数甚至超过了第一季度的水平，同比增长20%，现在达到1.35亿月活跃用户。我个人非常高兴看到这一趋势的延续。

Was this because Google Translate is now stealing customers? Well, this quarter proved that wrong. It continued to grow even past where it was in Q1. The growth of the monthly active users is up 20% year over year, and now they have 135,000,000 monthly active users. So I'm personally very happy to see this continuation of this trend.

我原本预计会继续回升，但当时并不确定。存在月活数低于上季度、继续下滑的可能性。但我们没有看到这种情况。这对多邻国股东来说是个好消息。接下来我们看看日活跃用户数。

I thought that it would continue back upwards, but there was no guarantee. There was a chance that the monthly active users could come in below where it was last quarter, that it could continue on its decline. And we don't see that. So that's good news for the Duolingo shareholder. Then we have the daily active users.

这些用户每天都会登录完成课程。整个季度每个月的每一天，数据就在这里——现在已突破5000万日活用户。从4770万增长到5050万。这种参与度水平——拥有超过5000万的日活用户——已经超过了许多顶级社交媒体公司。

These are people that log on and do a lesson every single day. Every day of the month, the entire quarter, we have it right here. It's now past 50,000,000 daily active users. We look at this and it went from 47.7 to 50.5. Now this level of engagement, having 50 plus million daily active users surpasses many top social media companies.

其中许多平台的日活跃用户数并未超过5000万。因此我也很高兴看到这种增长。我们看到付费订阅用户数。付费订阅用户同比也增长了34%。现在他们拥有1150万付费用户。

A lot of them do not have 50 plus million daily active users. So I like seeing this growth as well. We see the paid subscribers. The paid subscribers also grew by 34% year over year. Now they have 11,500,000.

这比上一季度的1090万有所上升。我们看到持续增长，所有图表曲线都向右上方延伸。这就是我们在多邻国看到的趋势。所有这些图表都在朝着正确的方向发展。唯一没有达到投资者预期的指标是付费订阅渗透率，但这有其特定原因。

That's a bump up from 10,900,000 the quarter before. We see continued growth, all the charts going up into the right. So that's what we see with Duolingo. All of these charts are moving in the right direction. One thing that didn't move as much as investors may have expected is the paid subscription penetration, but that is for specific reasons.

管理层指出他们目前并不专注于这方面。这也是本季度的一个关注点。管理层基本上表示他们的主要焦点已经转移。从紧抓货币化和增加收入，转向把握一个重大机遇。CEO反复强调他们正在追求的这个机会。

The management noted that they're not focusing on that right now. And this is part of the concern of this quarter. Management basically said that their main focus has shifted. It's shifted away from turning the screws of monetization and making more revenue to now going for a big opportunity. And the CEO highlighted over and over again, the opportunity that they're going for.

我想播放几段最近一次财报电话会议中，公司CEO路易斯谈论他在教育领域看到的前景的录音片段。

I wanna play some clips of the audio just from this most previous earnings call of Louis, the CEO of the company, talking about the opportunity he sees ahead with education.

是的，正如你所说，也正如我在股东信中提到的，现在存在一个巨大的机会。我们看到在未来几年，教育和人们学习方式将发生根本性变革。这源于人工智能的发展，也正因为AI，我们现在有望开发出一款教学效果极佳的应用——比人类历史上任何教学工具都出色，能达到人类导师的水平，同时更具吸引力。如果我们能做到这点，要知道我们目前月活跃用户数刚达到1.35亿。

Yeah, I mean, we're, like you said, and like I said in the shareholder letter, there's, there's a huge opportunity right now. We see a huge opportunity. Over the next few years, education and the way people learn, are, they're going to change fundamentally. And, and it's because of AI and also because of AI, we see, we have line of sight now to create an app that can teach really, really well, much better than anything that humanity has seen before, as good as a as a human tutor, but that is also more engaging. And if we're able to do that, you know, right now we have, I don't know, we just posted a 135,000,000, monthly active users.

如果我们能开发出教学效果如此卓越的应用，远胜现有水平，我们将有望拥有数十亿用户，这正是我们的目标。因此我们正在为长期发展投入。具体表现为我们正将更多资源投入到提升教学质量等方面。提升教学效果会促进用户增长，但存在滞后性。课程质量提升后用户确实会增加，但这需要时间。而用户增长转化为盈利同样存在延迟，因为人们需要时间才会订阅。

If we're able to do an app that teaches just that well, way much much better than we have now, we would be talking about billions of users that we have, and that's what we want to shoot for here. So this is why we are we are, investing in the long term. And and what that look like looks like is that we are putting relative more relative investment in things like teaching better, which, you know, teaching better if we teach better, what that does is that that helps user growth, but there's a lag. You know, just whenever you improve your courses, users do grow, but it takes a while for that to happen. And then user growth, there's a lag to get to monetization because people take some time to subscribe.

所以这是个长期过程，但我们对此非常乐观，这正是我们采取这一策略的原因。

So this is kind of a long term thing, but we're very bullish on this and this is why we're doing that.

他谈到他们目前用户量刚过1亿，而他的目标是达到数十亿用户。他在通话中多次提及这一机遇。我想再强调一次他谈到这部分的内容。

He talks about how they're in the low 100,000,000 users and his ambitions are to get to billions of users. And he mentions this opportunity again throughout the call multiple times. I wanna highlight one more time where he talks about this.

关于为何是现在，这个问题问得好。现实情况是，过去几年间形势逐渐明朗——我们正处在一个独特的时间节点，特别是在教育领域，全球教育方式正在变革，同时我们在多邻国的教学能力也在提升。从我们自己的数据指标就能看出，比如通过视频通话等功能快速发布内容的效率，以及每月可见的持续进步。这种趋势其实已经酝酿相当一段时间了。

As to why now, this, I mean, it's a great question. The reality is that over the last couple of years, it has just become progressively clearer and clearer that we are in a unique point in time, particularly with education in terms of how education is going to happen in the world and also how well we can teach at Duolingo. We just see it, in our own metrics in, you know, how fast we can put out content with things like video call. Do we just see how, how much it is improving every, every month? And so that just kind of has been coming for, for, for a while.

最近一两个月，我真正动员了整个公司向这个转型方向推进。

And what has happened is that over the last month or two, I've really rallied the company towards this shift.

CEO得出结论：我们正处在教育格局发生剧变的独特时刻。他拥有将多邻国打造成全球最大教育平台的重大机遇。公司正全力向这个方向调整——聚焦用户增长与参与度提升，扩充教学内容并优化教学质量。他在本次通话中多次强调教学优化，同时略微降低了将免费用户转化为付费账户的优先级，以便能适当提高定价。

The CEO has come to the conclusion that we're at a very unique moment in time where the landscape of education is shifting dramatically. He has this big opportunity to grow into this category of making Duolingo the go to biggest platform in the world for education. And they're trying to direct the company more in that direction, focus on getting more users, making them more engaged, focus on expanding the content slate and better teaching. He highlights teaching better multiple times throughout this call. They're putting a little bit less emphasis on converting users from the free account to the paid account, making it so that they can price things a little bit higher.

这并不意味着他们会完全放弃这方面，只是公司投入的资源、意图和关注度有所降低。这就是战略转向，也是公司看到的机遇。对此可以有两种解读：华尔街很多人会说，这意味着未来一年预订量和订阅数会减少，进而导致收入下降，毕竟这些预订是他们的主要收入来源。

That's not gonna be something that they never do, but it's just less of their company's resources and intent and focus. So that is the gear change. That's the opportunity that this company sees. And when you look at this, you can take it two ways. Many people on Wall Street will say, well, that just means that we're gonna get less bookings, less subscriptions over the next year, which means revenue won't be as high over the next year because they make money through those bookings.

但他要表达的不止于此。他强调这是主动选择的结果——如果多邻国愿意，他们完全可以让预订量暴涨，下个季度实现50%增长。但他们选择不这么做，因为这会损害公司的长期利益。

But that's not the only thing he's saying. He's saying part of this is a deliberate choice. If Duolingo wanted to, they could make bookings go through the roof. They could make it grow by 50% next quarter. They really could if they wanted to, but that would be at the long term detriment of the company.

他详细解释了公司拥有完整的机制体系，通过A/B测试来决定将多少免费层级用户转化为付费用户。他还列举了非常具体的操作案例来说明这一点。

And he explains how they literally have these mechanisms to determine how much they convert or how much they don't convert users from the free tears to the paid tears. They determine that they can do it through all their AB testing. He highlights very specific examples.

有些实验能提升所有指标。太好了，这很容易决定。直接上线就行，因为它能全面提升指标。这种情况确实存在。

Some experiments improve all metrics. Great. That's an easy call. Just launch it because it improves all metrics. And that happens.

但有时实验会提升一个指标却损害另一个。举个虚构的例子：假设现在免费用户每天初始获得25能量单位，每次练习消耗1单位。如果我们做个实验将这个数值从25降到24，相当于每天少1单位能量。我们知道这会增加收入。

But there are times when experiments improve one metric, but hurt another. I'll give you a fictitious example. If right now, a free user, free users get 25 energy units at the beginning of the day, and every exercise that they do spends one unit. If we were to do an experiment that decreases that from 25 to say 24, That's one fewer unit of of of energy per day. We know that would make us more money.

因为更多人会耗尽能量，最终会有更多用户想要付费订阅。

That it just does because more people run out of energy. So more people end up, you know, wanting to pay to subscribe.

所以他手头就有个确定能提升收入的机制。他随时可以启动，只需把每日能量单位从25改成24。这样更多人会因为能量耗尽而转用付费服务。那多邻国为什么不这么做？为什么不增加收入，给华尔街最想要的预订量呢？

So he has a mechanism right there that he knows would up the revenue. He could just turn it on at any point, just make it so that the energy units are 24 per day instead of 25. And they'd convert far more people to the paid tariff because they'd be frustrated with running out of energy. So why doesn't Duolingo just do that? Why don't they bump up revenue and give Wall Street exactly what it wants, More bookings.

在接下来的部分，他详细解释了不这么做的原因。

Well, he explains exactly why they're not doing that in this next part.

但我们同样清楚这会降低日活跃用户数，因为会惹恼部分用户。这类决策总是需要权衡取舍。我们的意思是，在这种判断中，我们会优先考虑用户增长而非变现。所以刚才那个虚构实验——把能量从25降到24——我们不会实施，即便能带来可观的预订量增长，只要它会对日活用户造成实质影响。

However, we also know that would decrease daily active users because it would frustrate some of the users. We've always had to make decisions about, you know, different judgment calls about this. What we mean is that what we know, the change that we are doing is that we are going to be prioritizing user growth over monetization in this type of of judgment calls. So in the fictitious experiment that I just gave you, we would not launch that experiment going from 25 to 24 energy units, even if it meant, you know, quite a bit of bookings gains if it has a real hit on daily active users.

多邻国同时运行着数百个实验，不断测试产品对学习效果、行为模式、参与度、用户留存与流失等各方面的影响。他们表示在所有测试中，现在主要聚焦用户增长和留存，而非转化率或收入。结合公司整体战略来看，这是非常刻意的选择——专注于有机增长和未来的重大机遇。等真正赢得市场后，再启动变现机制也不迟。

So Duolingo has these hundreds of experiments they're running all the time, testing their product on learning outcomes and behaviors and engagement, their user retention and churn, all these different things that they're constantly tuning and turning. And what they're saying is with all of these tests, they're now focusing primarily on user growth and user retention. They're not focusing quite as much on conversion or revenue. When you put this in the greater context of the direction of the company, this is a very intentional choice, a focus on organic growth and big opportunities ahead or later on down the road. Once you've gotten the opportunity, once you've really won, then you can turn the screws of monetization.

这正是优步的做法。最初，优步专注于增长，虽然当时是高度亏损的企业，但它不断扩张规模。他们抓住了眼前的机遇，如今在实现规模后已变得非常盈利。网飞也是如此。网飞长期处于自由现金流为负的状态，以至于许多分析师坚信它永远赚不到一分钱。

That's exactly what Uber did. At first, Uber was focused on growth and they're a highly unprofitable business, but Uber grew and grew and grew to scale. They seized the opportunity ahead of them and now they're highly profitable now that they've met scale. It was the same thing with Netflix. Netflix ran free cash flow negative so long, that analysts, many of them were convinced they could never churn a dime of profit.

就连聪明的分析师，比如阿斯沃斯·达莫达兰这样的顶尖人物，也曾说网飞的商业模式根本行不通。这就是当企业优先考虑规模和机遇而非即时盈利时会发生的情况。这在很多情况下会误导投资者和分析师。我认为当前多邻国就处于这种状态——从数据来看，它已是全球主导型企业。

Even smart analysts, great ones like Aswath Damodoren said Netflix is just a broken business model. That's what it does when a company focuses on scale and opportunity over immediate monetization. It can in many cases trick investors and analysts. And I believe that's what's going on right now. Duolingo by the metrics is a globally dominant company.

你查看任何指标都会发现它在疯狂增长。他们拥有1150万订阅用户，这些用户热爱这个产品，每天都在使用。尽管很多人预言增长会停滞，但他们每个季度都在持续扩张。

You look at any of the metrics and it is growing like crazy. They have 11,500,000 subscribers. These people are loving this product. They're using it every single day. They're growing quarter after quarter, despite all the people saying that they would not continue growing.

人们曾预言其日活跃用户会下降，月活跃用户会因人工智能、ChatGPT、谷歌翻译以及苹果实时翻译耳机而衰减。他们预言公司会倒闭，使用量会下滑，用户流失率会上升。但事实上，所有用户参与指标、数据和用量都在持续攀升。

That their daily active users would go down, their monthly active users would decline because of artificial intelligence, because of ChatGPT, because of Google Translate, because of the Apple AirPods with live translation. People said the company would die. They said that the usage would go down. They said the churn rate would go up. All user engagement metrics and numbers and usage are all going up.

关于公司的护城河，许多人再次对AI学习和AI翻译表示担忧。这从一开始就是我听到关于多邻国最主要的顾虑之一。在这次电话会议中，CEO直面回应了这个担忧。以下是他的原话：

And in terms of the moat of the company, many people are again concerned about AI learning and AI translation. This has been one of the top concerns that I've heard about Duolingo since the very beginning. And in this call, the CEO addresses this concern head on. Here's what he says.

关于AI竞争格局，人们主要提出两点：第一，既然能用ChatGPT学语言，为什么还要用多邻国？对此我们并不特别担心。我们最擅长的不仅是教学效果，更重要的是保持用户长期参与度。要真正掌握一门语言，需要持续投入数年时间。

The two things that people say about the competitive landscape with AI are number one, why would anybody want to learn a language with Duolingo when you can just learn it with ChatGPT? Okay. I, you know, we're not particularly worried about that. You know, the, we've said it before, the main thing that, that we do really well, not only do we teach well, but the main thing that we do really well is keep people engaged. And in order to learn a language, you need to be engaged for years, really.

语言学习需要经年累月的每日坚持，我们必须让你保持实际的学习状态。不仅如此，我们还需要提供持续多年的课程体系。虽然你可以用ChatGPT零散地学些单词，但它无法提供真正系统化的多年课程规划。因此我们对这方面并不特别担忧。

It takes years to learn a language coming every day, and we need to keep you engaged actually doing it. And not only that, we also need to have curriculum for years for you to do that. So, you know, with ChatGPT, can go there and you can ask it to teach you a few words here and there. But, you know, it's not like you can have really curriculum for years that, that, that teach that. So we're not particularly worried about that aspect.

人们还表示担心的另一点是，没人会愿意学习语言了，因为我们将实现实时语言翻译。对此我也不担心。过去十年里，谷歌I/O大会每年都展示实时翻译技术，效果确实不错。

And then the other thing that people, you know, have said that they're worried about is, oh, well, nobody's going to want to learn a language because, you know, the, we're going to have simultaneous language translation and, okay. Also not worried about that. You know, I believe in 100% of the Google IO conferences over the last ten years, they have showcased simultaneous language translation. They do it every single year and it's good. It works.

但这种现象已持续十年，我们丝毫未见人们学习语言的热情减退。事实上热情反而高涨。我认为最主要的原因是用户可分为两大类：一类是出于爱好学习语言的人，计算机能否翻译对他们而言无关紧要。

But this has been happening for the last ten years and we have not seen the desire to learn a language go down at all. In fact, it has come up. And I think the biggest reason for that is because if you look at our users, they fall into two big categories. One big bucket is people who are learning a language as a hobby. It kind of doesn't matter whether a computer can do that.

就像国际象棋一样——顺便说句，电脑下棋比人类强得多——但仍有数百万人想学象棋。所以对兴趣爱好而言这无所谓。另一大类用户是真正想学英语的人，对他们来说举着手机翻译并非所求。

It's because that's same with chess, by the way. Computers are way better than humans at chess, but still, you know, we have millions of people wanting to learn chess. That's so it doesn't matter if it's a hobby. The other big group of people that are learning a language with us are people who are learning English and they actually want to learn English. Like that is, you know, for them, you know, being able to have like a phone that they have to hold out, it just kind of, that's not what they, what they want to do.

因此我们并不特别担忧这个问题。只是人们喜欢在推特上讨论这个，但我们并不担心。

So we just, we're not particularly worried about the, that. It just so happens that, people like to tweet about that, but we're not worried about it.

他强调了多邻国与ChatGPT的区别。虽然在ChatGPT上可以练习语言，但多邻国的专长在于让人保持多年如一日的学习动力。其他公司远未进行过能维持这种参与度的用户行为测试。实时翻译确实不是人们学习语言的动机，特别是那些为工作机会、文化或爱好而学语言的人。

He highlights the distinction between Duolingo and a ChatGPT. Although you can practice the language on ChatGPT, continuing to be motivated for years on end every single day is what Duolingo specializes in. And these other companies have not done nearly the user behavior testing to have that level of engagement. The next thing is a live translation, which accurately says is not a motivation for people to learn languages. People don't learn languages because of a lack of live translation, especially many people that are learning languages for job opportunities or for cultural reasons or for hobbies.

就像学下棋——尽管电脑棋艺更高超——对许多人而言学语言本身就是种爱好。我认同这个评价，这是对多邻国与普通AI学习应用差异的中肯分析。路易斯在通话中继续阐述了未来规划：改进教学、新增课程、提升趣味性、为现有课程扩充内容以实现更高级别的语言教学等等。例如在国际象棋课程中，他们正在开发玩家对战功能。

Just like learning chess where there's computers better than you at chess, learning a language in many cases is a hobby for people. And I agree with this assessment. I think it's an honest assessment of the differences between Duolingo and just some AI learning app. Now Lewis goes on in this call outlining all the different things that they're doing for the future, improving their teaching, adding more courses, making it more engaging, making it so that they're adding more content to existing courses so they can teach languages to a higher level and so on and so forth. In the chess course, for example, they're making it so that you can now have player versus player.

半数iOS用户已拥有该功能。他们表示国际象棋课程用户已达数百万，留存率甚至高于语言课程。因此他们正在培育活跃度更高的新业务线。但最重要的是，我在多邻国这家公司发现了一个特别现象。

Half of iOS users have that. They say that chess is in the millions of users already. It has retention rates better than their language learning. So they are growing a new pass with higher levels of activity. But overall, the big thing that I wanna highlight with Duolingo, and I think the most important thing is I noticed something with this company in particular.

我认为投资者在这种情况下的行为模式是个错误——他们让股价波动左右自己对股票的看法。这意味着他们不看基本面，不看过去增长和未来收入预期等指标，也不看估值。

And that is that investors do what investors end up doing for every situation like this, which I think is a mistake. They let the stock price movement inform them of their opinion on the stock. Meaning they don't look at the fundamentals. They don't look at the the growth past and the future revenue expectations or anything like that. They don't look at the valuations.

他们只看股价涨跌就下结论：如果股价下跌，那肯定有原因。华尔街调低了估值，说明公司表现不佳。我在推特、YouTube评论区乃至整个X平台上都常看到这种观点。

They simply look at a stock price going up or going down and they say, that is what my opinion is. If the stock went down, there must have been a reason why. Wall Street is pricing it lower. That means that the stock is doing poorly. That's what I see a lot on Twitter, on YouTube comments, all across X.

举个例子，在平行世界里，假设业绩不变但股价莫名上涨10%——预订量、增长率等指标都未改变——我相信多数投资者会说：这个季度很棒，股价理应小幅上涨。

I see people letting the stock price inform them of their opinion on the stock. For example, I believe in an alternate world. If you had this result and the stock price for whatever reason went up 10%, but nothing changed, Not the bookings, not the growth rate, none of these metrics. I believe that most investors would look at this company and say, this was a great quarter. The stock should probably be up a little bit.

看啊，华尔街在推高股价，说明这个季度肯定很好——这就是股价给你造成的心理暗示。我认为这种投资方式很危险。如果让股价主导你对公司的判断，你当初绝不会在Netflix暴跌75%时买入，反而会因恐慌抛售。

And look, Wall Street is pricing it up, so it must have been a great quarter. That's the influence, the impression that the stock price leaves on you. And I think that this is a dangerous way to invest. After all, if you let the stock price dictate your impressions of a company, if you let the movements and the volatility tell you how to feel about a company, then you would not have bought Netflix when it fell 75%. You would have sold out because the panic.

从股价看确实很糟，但当时我们可以看看Netflix实际遭受的损失。让我们看看股价暴跌75%时真实情况有多糟糕：这是Netflix的用户总数数据，股价就在这个节点跌了75%。

It really looked bad according to the stock price. Even though at the time we can look at the real damage that happened to Netflix. Let's go ahead and take a look at how bad things really were when the stock price dropped 75%. We have Netflix here, we have total subscribers. The stock price dropped 75% right there.

就这样。仅仅因为这个季度数据比上个季度略差，股价就暴跌75%，几乎归零——全因这两个季度的表现。

That was it. Because this quarter right there was slightly less than that one. 75% decrease in stock price. Total obliteration. All because of those two quarters.

当时华尔街认为Netflix基本一文不值，因为股价永远不会再增长。他们不听管理层的解释，无视密码共享整治的规划，也不理会公司的长期战略——华尔街当初看好这家公司仅仅是因为其快速增长。

Now Wall Street said that Netflix was basically worth nothing because the stock was never gonna grow again. They didn't listen to the management. They didn't listen to the password crackdown narrative. They didn't listen to any of the long term thesis or thought process behind what the company's actually doing. What Wall Street thought was that this company was highly rated because of fast growth.

公司现在增长放缓，所以股价需要回调。这就是市场的运作机制。但如果你让市场左右你对一家公司的看法，你就会错过Netflix这样的机会。类似的例子比比皆是。2022年，亚马逊股价还在每股80美元，转眼就涨到86美元。

The company is now not growing as fast, so the stock needs to come down. That's the mechanics of the market. But if you let the market inform you on how to feel about a company, you'd miss out on Netflix. And there's plenty more examples where this came from. In 2022, Amazon was trading at $80 per share, right there, 86 per share.

如今亚马逊股价已达每股240美元。从80美元到2.40美元（注：此处应为240美元），2022年发生了什么？当然是因为他们为零售增长投入了大量资本支出，导致自由现金流大幅下降。华尔街投资者看到后惊呼：'这下明年赚不到那么多钱了，得赶紧抛售股票'。

Now Amazon trades at $240 per share. So $80 to $2.40, what happened in 2022? Well, of course it was because they're investing in CapEx for their retail growth and that was expensive and it caused the free cash flow to go down a lot. Investors in Wall Street looked at that and they said, Oh no, we're not gonna make as much money over the next year. We need to abandon the stock.

而那些将此视为企业投资长期未来机遇的投资者，那些更看重客户终身价值和业务扩张而非短期利润的投资者，却在这只股票上获得了巨大收益。我在接近80美元时买入亚马逊，并多次在100美元以下加仓。它之所以成为投资组合中的大赢家，正是因为我没让市场左右我对公司的判断。这样的案例不胜枚举。

Investors that looked at this as an opportunity of a company investing in its long term future, that's prioritizing lifetime value of customers and expansion over short term profits made immense gains in that stock. I bought Amazon very close to $80 per share. I bought it under a $100 per share over and over again. And that's the reason why that's such a big winner in the portfolio is because I didn't let the market dictate my thoughts on the company. And again, these examples can go on and on.

太多股票会因短期因素下跌，如果让股价左右你对公司的判断，你不仅会被误导，还可能错失巨额收益。说到这点，我想分享杰夫·贝索斯的一个故事。当时亚马逊股价暴跌了约90%。

There's so many stocks that drop down for short term reasons that if you let the stock price dictate how you feel about the company, you're going to be misled and you could potentially miss out on huge gains. And on this point, I wanna highlight a story from Jeff Bezos. This was when Amazon stock price crashed by around 90%.

亚马逊股价在极短时间内从每股113美元跌至6美元。这非常令人担忧，股东们很愤怒，员工们也惴惴不安。所有员工的父母都在打电话问：'你还好吗？'整个公司弥漫着极度紧张的氛围。

Amazon stock in a very short period of time went from a $113 a share to $6 a share. It was very concerning, and shareholders were upset. Employees were nervous. All of our employee base, their parents were all calling our employees and saying, are you okay? You know, this was the environment of great nervousness.

但我查看业务数据发现：当股价从113美元跌到6美元时，每月客户数量都在增长，毛利润逐月提升。虽然仍在亏损，但亏损占销售额的比例每月都在下降。所有业务指标——新客户、回头客、我们监控的每个数据——都在持续改善。这就是我对泡沫现象的一个观察。

But I looked at the numbers in the business, and every month, as the stock price went from 113 to 6, a number of customers went up every month. Our gross profits went up every month. Our operating expense, we were still in a loss position, but our our losses as a percentage of sales went down every month. Every single business metric, new customers, customer repeat purchases, everything that we were monitoring through that entire period kept getting better. And so this that's one observation about bubbles in general.

股价与企业的基本面脱节了。当然，作为企业家，你们关注的是业务基本面。股价只是一个输出结果，一个你们几乎无法控制的最终结果。著名投资家本杰明·格雷厄姆有句名言：'短期来看，股市是投票机；长期来看，股市是称重机。'

Disconnected, the fundamentals of the business. And, of course, as entrepreneurs, you're focused on the fundamentals of the business. The stock price is an output, an ultimate output that you actually have very little control over. Benjamin Graham, the great investor, is famous for saying, in the short term, the stock market is a voting machine. In the long term, it's a weighing machine.

作为创始人、企业家和商界人士，我们的职责是打造一家有分量的公司。我们要建立的企业，在称重时会是家极具分量的公司。

And so as founders and entrepreneurs and business people, our job is to build a heavy company. We wanna build a company that when it is weighed, it is a very heavy company.

像多邻国CEO兼创始人刘易斯这样的企业家，其目标就是忘掉股价。你无法控制股价，那是你所能掌控之事（即企业基本面——打造一家有分量的公司）的长期结果。我并非暗示多邻国会成为下一个亚马逊，我不这么认为也无意暗示，但我确实认为多邻国仍有机会成长为相当有分量的企业。

The goal for entrepreneurs like Lewis, the CEO and founder of Duolingo is to forget about the stock price. You don't have any control over that. And that's the long term output of what you do have control over, which is the fundamentals, making a heavy company. Now I'm not suggesting that Duolingo is the next Amazon. I don't believe that, I'm not suggesting it, but I do believe there's an opportunity here where Duolingo could still turn out to be a pretty heavy company.

一家拥有海量用户、在极具相关性的行业中广受喜爱的公司。我们见过这类相似企业的发展轨迹——这些坐拥数亿用户的平台型公司最终成长为大型成熟企业，最终成为极具分量的巨头。Spotify就是例证，当初多少人曾为音乐版权问题忧心忡忡。

One that has a massive amount of users, a really well liked company in a very relevant industry. We've seen these type of similar companies play out. These large platform companies with hundreds of millions of users that end up growing to large established companies that in the end become very hefty companies. We've seen it with Spotify. That was a company that many people were worried about the music labels.

看看这项投资结果多么出色。Netflix如此，DoorDash如此，Uber亦如此。这些公司都曾长期亏损。

And look how wonderful of an investment that's turned out. We've seen it with Netflix. We've seen it with DoorDash. We've seen it with Uber. All of these companies were money losing.

它们都经历过剧烈波动，都有投资者对它们极度看好或极度看空的时期。但长期来看，关键在于企业的分量。多邻国能否成为有分量的公司？它是否会发展为庞大、成熟且盈利的企业？

All of them have very volatile histories. All of them have time periods where investors are super bullish or super bearish on the company. And over time what matters is the weight of the company. Is Duolingo gonna become a heavy company? Will it become a big, large, established, profitable company or not?

若你不相信它能，就别买其股票。若你认为有可能，或存在较大机会，或许值得一试，值得纳入考量。无论如何，我从不建议将其作为全部投资组合——我自己也绝不会这么做。

If you don't believe it will, then don't buy the stock. If you believe it might, or there's a good chance of it, then it might be worth biting it. It might be worth one to consider. And in any case, I'd never recommend making it your entire portfolio. I'm not doing that here.

即便多邻国未能成功，虽令人遗憾，但不会对我的投资组合表现造成重大影响。但我仍相信存在可观的上涨潜力，因为正如杰夫·贝索斯所言：我关注的是基本面。我看到多邻国的各项指标持续向好，只要这种趋势持续，我就不会卖出股票。事实上，我可能会采用定投策略再增持一些。

If Duolingo doesn't work out, it'll be a bummer, but it's not gonna impact my portfolio's performance to a massive degree. But I still believe there's a good chance for upside because like Jeff Bezos says, I'm looking at the fundamentals. I'm seeing the metrics go up into the right for Duolingo. As long as I see that happen, I'm not gonna sell the stock. And in fact, I may dollar cost average and buy a bit more.

现在让我们继续关注一些新闻。在这次大规模抛售中，仍有少数公司表现坚挺。谷歌就是其中之一。尽管市场整体遭遇重挫，它仍勉强保持上涨态势。而QQQ指数中的大盘股跌幅更为惨重。

Now let's go ahead and move on to some news. Now amongst this big sell off, there are a few companies that are at least holding up. Right now Google's one of them. It's sticking in the green, just barely teetering in the green despite the fact that the rest of the market is selling off heavily. And the QQQ, the mega caps are selling off even more.

为何谷歌表现如此出色？因为它又传来更多好消息。公司周二宣布，第七代张量处理单元TPU（代号Ironwood）将在未来几周面向公众上市。这款四月首次发布用于测试部署的自主研发芯片，专为处理从大模型训练到实时聊天机器人及AI代理的全场景需求设计。谷歌表示，通过单机柜内9,216颗芯片的互联，新型Ironwood TPU能消除'数据瓶颈'，让客户得以运行和扩展现存最大规模、数据最密集的模型。

Why is Google doing so well? Because Google has even more good news. The company said on Tuesday that the seventh generation of its tensor processing unit, the TPUs called Ironwood, will hit the market for public use in the coming weeks after it was initially introduced in April for testing and deployment. The chip built in house is designed to handle everything from training of large models to powering real time chatbots and AI agents. In connecting up to 9,216 chips in a single pod, Google says the new Ironwood TPU eliminates quote, Data bottlenecks for the most demanding models and gives customers the ability to run and scale the largest, most data intensive models in existence.

要是我蒙上眼睛只听这段描述，肯定会以为是英伟达的产品。退一步说也可能是AMD的技术。虽然这两家公司可能放出类似豪言，但这次既非英伟达也非AMD——是谷歌。谷歌同样实力强劲，他们可不只会运营YouTube。

Now, if I was blindfolded and I just heard this line, I would think this has to come from Nvidia. At the very least it might come from AMD. They might say something like that, but that's not coming from Nvidia or AMD, now it's Google. Google is also good. They're not just good at YouTube.

他们不擅长Robotaxi业务，也不仅精通云托管服务。如今他们在芯片制造领域也表现出色，用他们自己的话说，能打造出运行现存最数据密集型模型的超强芯片。谷歌是如何实现这种技术突破的？

They're not good at Robotaxi. They're not just good at cloud hosting. Now they're good at making chips. Really powerful ones that in their words can run the most data intensive models in existence. How did Google get this chip so good?

他们如何使芯片性能与能效比肩顶级产品？和谷歌众多项目一样，他们已深耕数十年。作为这些项目的长期投资者，TPU研发已持续十载。据谷歌透露，Ironwood比前代产品快四倍以上。

How did they get it so it matches performance and efficiency of top tier chips? Well, like many things that Google does, they've been working on it for a long time. They've just been investors in all these projects for decades. The TPUs have been in works for a decade. Ironwood, according to Google is more than four times faster than its predecessor.

AI初创公司Anthropic计划采用多达100万颗新型TPU运行其Clawed模型。若非今日市场恐慌性抛售导致2%跌幅，这则消息本应推动谷歌股价上涨2-3%。现在让我们进入本周糗事环节，这已经是本周第二个搞砸案例了。

The AI startup Anthropic plans to use up to 1,000,000 of the new TPUs to run its clawed model. If the market wasn't having a big panic attack today and selling off 2%, Google would be up two to 3% on this news. There's no doubt about it. Now moving on, we get to our fail of the week. This is the second fail of the week.

看来我们可能要搞个每日糗事专栏了——虽然这个命名逻辑有点混乱，但现状就是如此。这次的主角是Chipotle。其股价暴跌本身倒算不上本周最糗事件。

So we're gonna have a Maybe we're gonna have a fail of the week on a daily basis, a daily fail of the week. Don't ask me how that makes sense, but that's what this has turned into. In this case, it's Chipotle. Now Chipotle stock is down a lot. That in and of itself is not the fail of the week.

许多股票下跌的原因各不相同。但Chipotle今年股价已下跌约50%。不仅是股价，公司本身也在挣扎。例如，尽管Chipotle在开设更多门店并因此获得一些增长，但单店平均收入却在持续下降，且已连续多个季度下滑。Chipotle存在的一个主要问题非常明显。

Many stocks go down for all different reasons. But Chipotle is down around 50% on the year. And it's not just the stock price, the company's also struggling. For example, even though Chipotle is opening up more locations and they're seeing some growth that way, the average revenue per location is declining and it's been declining quarter after quarter. One of the major problems with Chipotle is very clear.

经常光顾的顾客都知道这个问题。某种程度上说，去Chipotle有点像是在赌博。你永远不知道会得到什么——品质极其不稳定。这不仅是我的个人经历，也是数百万消费者的共同体验。

Anyone that has gone there frequently knows about this issue. It is a fact that going to Chipotle to some degree is a bit of a gamble. You don't really know what you're gonna get. It's very inconsistent. And this is an anecdote from my experience, but it's also one that's shared amongst millions of people.

看看这类病毒式推文。来自'Chipotle推文'的Mike分享说，他其实对Chipotle做了个小调查：'今天在同一家店间隔15分钟点了两份卷饼。左边是堂食点的，体积是右边外卖的两倍大。'

We look at viral tweets like this. This is from Mike from Chipotle tweets. He's tweeted that he actually did kind of like a little bit of a sting operation on Chipotle. He said that I ordered these burritos fifteen minutes apart from the same store today. The one on the left I ordered in person and it's twice the size as the one on the right, which was ordered online.

我的外卖每次分量都明显更少。别再坑我们了。左边卷饼明显比右边大近一倍——右边是正常尺寸，左边却像巨无霸。

My order online is always significantly smaller every time. Stop ripping us off. Off to the left, can clearly see the burrito is almost twice as big as the one on the right. The one on the right is like a normal sized burrito. The one on the left is gigantic.

这绝非Mike的个例。这条推文获得1000万浏览、14.4万点赞和7000转发，成为全网最火推文之一。无数人留言说：'我也有同样经历，外卖总是缺斤少两'。

And again, this is not just Mike. When he tweeted this, everybody said the same thing. This has 10,000,000 views, 144,000 hearts, 7,000 retweets. This is one of the most viral tweets across Twitter is people saying, I know this experience. I've also gone and ordered online and I get ripped off.

我们只能推测为何数字订单分量总比堂食少。但据我观察，堂食时员工因顾客在场监督更有压力，至少存在人际互动；而外卖订单在后厨准备时，员工根本看不到顾客——连得来速窗口都看不见人脸。

Now we can only speculate why the digital ordering and online ordering has such smaller portion sizes than in person. But if I had to guess, I believe it's because when you go in person, the employee feels more pressured to kind of deliver a good burrito. They see you right there looking at what they're doing. So they at least see some human connection. When it's just digitally, they go into back kitchen, they prepare something, they don't even have to see you, they never see you through the drive through really.

这种人际联结的缺失正是症结所在。Chipotle前CEO曾建议：'如果觉得分量不足，就给员工使个眼色——用眼神示意他们给你应得的分量。'

So there's not that human connection. Now the previous CEO of Chipotle noticed that this is a problem. He even suggested going in person. And then if you get a smaller portion size than what you believe you should have, if it's a kind of a smaller portion size than what you want, you give the employee the nod. You give them a nod to get the portion size you deserve.

他正在谈论这件事。

Here he is talking about that.

我认为Chipotle最棒的一点是，当你走进餐厅想要多加些米饭或莎莎酱时，只需示意一下，我们的员工通常都会多给你一勺。

One of the things I think that's great about Chipotle is if you come into the restaurant and you want a little more rice or you want a little more pico, all you gotta do is kinda like And usually our guys and women, give them a little more scoop.

现在，我不知道你怎么想，你可能觉得我疯了，但我认为顾客不应该负责确保他们买的卷饼配料比例合理。我觉得如果你点了一份鸡肉卷饼，它就应该含有足量的鸡肉，而不需要你额外暗示'嘿，我付了钱就该得到足量'。这种情况本不该存在，而且似乎不止我一个人这么认为。

Now, I don't know about you and you may think I'm crazy here, but I don't believe that the customer should be the one responsible for making sure their burrito is made with the proportions that they're paying for. I think if you just ask for something, if you say, I want a burrito with chicken, then it should come with the right amount of chicken. You shouldn't have to give them a nod to say, Hey, I really want the full amount that I'm paying for. I don't think that should be the case. And it seems like I'm, again, not the only one that feels this way.

关于这个话题有海量帖子，成千上万人、数百条评论都在说同一件事：这家公司的分量标准不统一。Chipotle甚至因此被起诉过。分量差异问题严重到让富国银行一位分析师亲自展开深度调查——他在不同时段从不同门店订购了100份完全相同的卷饼。

There are massive amounts of posts on this subject with tens of thousands of people, hundreds of comments all saying the same thing, that this company has a problem with inconsistent portions. Chipotle has even been sued for inconsistent portion sizes. The inconsistent portion sizes of Chipotle's food is such a big deal that one Wells Fargo analyst took it upon himself to do an in-depth study on the subject. He ordered a 100 burritos from all different locations at all different times. He had the exact same order every single time.

碗装食物的重量差异极大。最轻的份量比中位数低了三个标准差，这说明不是个别现象，而是数学上确凿的问题。Chipotle给顾客的食物分量存在巨大波动，管理层似乎不知如何解决。

The bowl weight varied widely. The lightest bowl was three standard deviations below the median, meaning that this is not just an anecdotal experience. This is a mathematical certainty. Chipotle has wildly varying portion sizes with the food that they give to their customers. Management of Chipotle don't seem to know how to solve this problem.

他们尝试过告诫员工'做得更好些'，也加强过培训，但至今没有解决方案。最近财报中Chipotle甚至归咎于经济环境，称'由于持续的宏观经济压力，第三季度业绩未达预期'。这固然是影响因素，但还有一个重要因素是你们可以掌控的。

They've tried to tell their employees, Hey, do better. They tried to train them better, but so far they don't have an answer. And Chipotle has taken to blaming the economy in their most recent earnings saying, Our third quarter performance fell short of our expectations due to persistent macroeconomic pressures. And that certainly is a factor. I'll admit that it plays into any restaurant, but there's also a big factor that you do have control over.

虽然CEO无法控制经济，但完全可以掌控餐厅运营。他们本可以消除众多顾客的这种不满。幸运的是，我已经为Chipotle管理层准备好了解决方案——这其实是个非常容易解决的问题。

Even though the CEO does not have control over the economy, they do have control over how they run their restaurant. And they could get rid of this frustration that many customers deal with. And luckily for the Chipotle management, I have the answer. I have the solution. This is a really easy problem to solve.

今天我要公布这个解决方案。这将让Chipotle变得更好。当我们看到这个方案实施后，你们将获得更优质的产品，因为每次的产品都能保持完全一致。我们可以以一家叫Mobeta's的餐厅为例，这是一家夏威夷风格的餐厅。

And I'm gonna lay out the answer today. This will change Chipotle for the better. When we see this implemented, you're going to have a better product because your product will be completely consistent every single time. We can take the example of a restaurant called Mobeta's. It's a Hawaiian style restaurant.

这家店真的很棒。我其实超爱这个地方。所以如果你附近有Mobetas，一定要去试试。如果还没去过，我想你会喜欢的。但我们这里有个人正在做美食测评。

It's a really good one. I actually love this place. So if you've been around a Mobetas, go try it out. If you haven't, I think you'll like it. But we have a guy here, he's doing a food review.

和Chipotle一样，这家餐厅也展示了所有食物的图片，有各种不同的点餐选项，你需要排队自选搭配食物。我们来到他们的备餐区。同样需要排队，备餐方式和Chipotle完全一样。但有一个显著区别。这个不同之处使得每次光顾这家餐厅时，你都能获得份量精准一致的蛋白质食材。

Like Chipotle, this is a restaurant where you have all the pictures of the food, you have all these different orders, and you go up and you assemble your food in the line. So we get to where they prepare the food. Again, you go down the line, they prepare it exactly like Chipotle's. But there is one notable difference. One thing that is just different than what Chipotle does that makes it so at this restaurant you get perfectly consistent portions of the protein every single time you go in.

让我们看看第一个示范。就在这里。我会用红笔标出来。这里就是第一个示范。这是一个秤。

Let's look at exhibit one. We have it right here. I'll outline it in red. Right there we have exhibit one. That is a scale.

这是个食物秤。Mobedas的做法是：在放入任何蛋白质食材前，他们会先把你的餐盘放在秤上。按下归零按钮清零。然后按你支付的重量精确添加食物。作为顾客，你能看到他们舀起食物，放进秤上的餐盘，而且他们留了个合理的小误差范围，对吧？

That's a food scale. What Mobedas does is they take your plate of food before they put any protein in it, they put it on the scale. They hit a button that zeros out the scale. Then they put food on to where you have the amount of food in weight that is the amount you're paying for. So as a customer, you see them pick up the food, put it in the plate on the scale, and then they have a nice little margin, right?

份量必须非常接近，但你支付的食物量会有个合理的小误差范围。这几乎不会额外耗费时间。实际上可能只需多花两三秒。但这两三秒能确保你获得准确的食物份量。Chipotle只需要增加秤具。

It has to be very close, but they have a nice little margin of the amount of food you paid for. It doesn't take hardly any additional time. In fact, it takes probably about two to three seconds longer. But that two to three seconds longer ensures that you get the correct proportion of food. All Chipotle needs to do is add the scales.

就这么简单。他们只要增加秤具就能解决这个重大经营问题。食物秤很便宜，容易实施，也便于培训。

That's it. They add the scales and they figure out one massive problem for the business. Food scales are cheap. They're easy to implement. They're easy to train.

这解决了公司的一个重大痛点。公司无需投入太多资本支出，且他们的吞吐量或顾客通过队列的速度几乎不会受到明显影响——可能仅需多花三四秒就能确保获得更好的体验。因此尽管这是本周的失败案例，但最终仍以积极基调收尾。很高兴我们能共同改善Chipotle的状况。

It fixes a massive complaint for the company. It doesn't cost the company much in CapEx and their throughput or the rate that they can get people through the line really isn't slowed down that much. Maybe three to four seconds to ensure you get a better experience. So even though this is the fail of the week, it's also ending on a positive note. I'm glad together we could fix Chipotle.

我们可以让公司变得更好，整体上也能推动单店营业额重新增长。因为当顾客清楚能得到什么时，他们就会更频繁地光顾。以上就是本期全部内容，希望您喜欢，我们下期再见。

We could make it a better company and overall we can make that unit volume grow again. Because if you know what you're getting, you're gonna go there more often. That's gonna be it for this episode. Hope you enjoyed. See you in the next one.