马杜罗被捕与石油有关吗？

周六清晨，美国特种部队在一次突袭军事行动中俘虏了委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗及其妻子。

Early Saturday morning, US special forces captured Venezuela's president Nicolas Maduro along with his wife in a surprise military operation.

今天凌晨2点01分，在加拉加斯经过数月的铺垫后，美国三角洲部队潜入了独裁者尼古拉斯·马杜罗的家中。

After months of buildup at 02:01AM local time today in Caracas, Venezuela, US Delta forces slipped into the home of dictator Nicolas Maduro.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在Truth Social上发帖称，马杜罗及其妻子已被捕并被遣送出境。

US president Donald Trump posted on truth social that Maduro had been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the country.

这发生在美方向尼古拉斯·马杜罗政府施加压力数周之后，包括扣押两艘油轮并对涉嫌毒品走私的快艇实施致命军事打击。

This comes after weeks of The US ramping up pressure on the government of president Nicolas Maduro, including seizing two oil tankers and conducting deadly military strikes on alleged drug boat smugglers.

特朗普政府为针对马杜罗的行动提供了若干理由。

The Trump administration has given several justifications for its actions against Maduro.

如今，马杜罗正面临毒品和枪支犯罪的指控。

Now, Maduro was facing charges for drug and gun offenses.

在委内瑞拉总统任期届满多年后，马杜罗仍把持政权，持续对美利坚合众国发动暴力、恐怖和颠覆活动。

For many years after his term as president of Venezuela expired, Maduro remained in power and waged a ceaseless campaign of violence, terror, and subversion against The United States Of America.

今天，在纽约法院通过翻译，马杜罗宣誓自己无罪，并称自己仍是委内瑞拉总统。

Through a translator in a New York court today, Maduro declared his innocence and said he is still the president of Venezuela.

他的妻子也声称无罪。

His wife also pleaded not guilty.

但特朗普表示，这一切还有另一个动机：石油。

But Trump said there was also another motivation for all this: oil.

这是他昨天在空军一号上的情况。

Here he is yesterday on Air Force One.

全面掌控。

Total access.

我们需要全面掌控。

We need total access.

我们需要获取石油和其他资源。

We need access to the oil and to other things.

最终，他说了一件没有实现的事情。

Ultimately, he said something that wasn't done.

任何一家石油公司的期望清单上都有一项，那就是美国的石油和天然气公司将在委内瑞拉投入数十亿美元的投资。

Any of the oil companies' bingo card, which was that The US oil and gas companies were going to start plowing billions of dollars in investments in Venezuela.

欢迎收听《华尔街日报》播客，我们的节目聚焦金钱、商业与权力。

Welcome to The Journal, our show about money, business, and power.

我是瑞安·克努特森。

I'm Ryan Knutson.

今天是1月5日，星期一。

It's Monday, January 5.

在本期节目中，我们将探讨委内瑞拉石油发生了什么。

Coming up on the show, what is going on with Venezuela's oil?

委内瑞拉拥有世界上最大的石油储备之一。

Venezuela has one of the largest oil reserves in the world.

以下是我们的同事科林·伊顿，他负责报道石油行业。

Here's our colleague Colin Eaton, who covers the oil industry.

委内瑞拉政府估计，该国的石油储量约为3000亿桶。

The government of Venezuela has estimated that reserves of oil in Venezuela are around 300,000,000,000 barrels.

其他估算值可能较低，但各方似乎都同意，这一数字极为庞大。

There have been other estimates that peg that number lower, but they seem to all agree that it's quite massive.

一些人估计，委内瑞拉的石油储量实际上比沙特阿拉伯还多。

Venezuela is actually estimated by some to have more oil than Saudi Arabia.

但尽管该国拥有庞大且极具价值的资源，其石油工业却一直举步维艰，尤其是在21世纪初时任总统乌戈·查韦斯将石油产业收归国有之后。

But despite the country's vast and very valuable resources, the oil industry in Venezuela has struggled, especially since it was taken over by the government in the early two thousands under then president Hugo Chavez.

因此，在2007年2月，乌戈·查韦斯政府将委内瑞拉的石油资产国有化，基本上驱逐了包括埃克森美孚和康菲石油在内的几家主要企业。

So in 02/2007, Hugo Chavez's government nationalized the oil assets in Venezuela and essentially kicked out some major players, including ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips.

这标志着委内瑞拉石油生产质量开始下滑。

That was the start of a decline in the quality of Venezuela's oil production.

如今，美国唯一在委内瑞拉拥有重要业务的能源公司是雪佛龙。

Today, the only US energy company with a significant presence in Venezuela is Chevron.

该国大部分石油由国营的委内瑞拉石油公司（PDVSA）生产，该公司在数十年的腐败和管理不善下，严重削弱了委内瑞拉的石油工业。

Most of the country's oil is produced by the state run Petroleos de Venezuela or PedeVesa, which after decades of corruption and mismanagement diminished the Venezuelan oil industry.

如今，该国估计的3000亿桶石油中，只有很小一部分实际被开采出来。

Now, only a fraction of the country's estimated 300,000,000,000 barrels are actually coming out of the ground.

这些庞大的储量数字具有欺骗性，因为目前PDVSA、雪佛龙及其他公司并未大量开采石油。

So those massive reserve numbers are illusory in the sense that at the moment, PedeVesa and Chevron and other companies haven't been extracting huge amounts of oil.

目前，委内瑞拉每天的石油产量约为90万桶。

So currently, Venezuela is producing about 900,000 barrels a day.

这约占全球每日石油产量的1%。

That's about 1% of global oil production on a daily basis.

几十年来，美国一直与委内瑞拉关系紧张，包括特朗普政府在其第一任期内。

For decades, The US has been at odds with Venezuela, including the Trump administration, starting in his first term.

以下是前财政部长史蒂文·姆努钦宣布制裁的场景。

Here's former treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin announcing sanctions.

通过制裁马杜罗，美国明确表示反对其政权的政策，并支持委内瑞拉人民。

By sanctioning Maduro, The United States makes clear our opposition to the policies of his regime and the support for the people of Venezuela.

2019年，美国对委内瑞拉及佩德韦萨实施了近乎全面的经济封锁，禁止其合法向美国出售原油。

In 2019, The US imposed a near total economic embargo on the country and on PedeVesa, preventing it from selling crude oil legally to The US.

这对石油市场来说是一个重大时刻，因为此前许多炼油厂都依赖委内瑞拉的重质原油。

It was a big moment for oil markets, had gotten a lot of heavier crude from Venezuela.

墨西哥湾沿岸的炼油厂正紧急寻找其他原油来源。

The refineries in the Gulf Coast were scrambling to find other sources of crude.

因此，特朗普政府实施这些制裁，作为其所谓‘最大压力’运动的一部分，旨在迫使马杜罗下台。

So the Trump administration put those sanctions in place as part of its sort of maximum pressure campaign in an effort to pressure Maduro to leave power.

拜登政府放宽了这些制裁。

The Biden administration loosened those sanctions.

但在他的第二任期内，特朗普再次将注意力集中在委内瑞拉，因为政府的多项优先事项在此交汇。

But during his second term, Trump focused on Venezuela again as several of the administration's priorities converged there.

马杜罗在多个方面都是美国的眼中钉。

Maduro was the thorn in the side of The US on multiple fronts.

他拒绝接收载有委内瑞拉移民的飞机。

He resisted taking back plane loads of Venezuelan migrants.

他被指控直接参与毒品贩子的活动，并且尽管在2024年选举中失利，仍牢牢掌握权力。

He was alleged to be directly involved with drug cartels, And he held onto power despite losing an election in 2024.

特朗普核心圈内的一些人，包括美国国务卿马可·卢比奥，也一直在推动政权更迭。

Some in Trump's inner circle, including US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have also been pushing for regime change.

马可·卢比奥、迈克·沃尔斯以及其他来自佛罗里达州的美国议员，坚决认为马杜罗不仅对委内瑞拉人民，而且对周边国家都构成威胁。

Marco Rubio, Mike Walls, other US lawmakers, particularly from Florida, have been adamant that, you know, Maduro is a threat not only to the Venezuelan people but to, surrounding countries.

因此，去年特朗普政府再次加大压力，敦促马杜罗下台并流亡海外。

So last year, the Trump administration started dialing up the pressure once again and pushing Maduro to step down and go into exile.

行动始于对加勒比海地区多艘委内瑞拉船只的打击。

It started with multiple strikes on Venezuelan boats in The Caribbean.

今天，美军发动了一次防御官员称为对委内瑞拉船只的精确打击。

Today, US forces launched what a defense official calls a precision strike against a vessel from Venezuela.

这是同类袭击的第四次。

It's the fourth attack of its kind.

美国军方已对一艘被指控运输毒品的船只实施了第二十次打击。

The US military has carried out a twentieth strike on a boat accused of transporting drugs.

官员表示，自九月初以来，这最新一次袭击使35次船只打击行动造成的总死亡人数至少达到115人。

Officials say this latest attack brings the total since early September to at least one hundred and fifteen deaths across 35 boat strikes.

上个月，特朗普政府将压力行动扩大至油轮。

Then last month, the Trump administration expanded its pressure campaign to include oil tankers.

根据司法部长帕姆·邦迪的说法，一支精锐海岸警卫队队员从直升机滑降至委内瑞拉海岸外一艘油轮的甲板上，执行了扣押令。

An elite coast guard team rappelling out of helicopters onto the deck of an oil tanker off the Venezuelan coast, executing a seizure warrant according to attorney general Pam Bondi.

上个月，它扣押了一艘名为‘斯凯珀’号的油轮。

It seized a tanker last month called the Skipper.

这迅速表明，该政府正在竭尽全力切断支持尼古拉斯·马杜罗及其掌权的收入来源。

That quickly sort of showed that the administration was doing everything it could to cut off revenue streams that were supporting Nicolas Maduro and his stay in power.

私下里，美国还在幕后策划一项更大胆的行动：逮捕并引渡委内瑞拉总统。

Secretly, in the background, The US was also planning something more brazen, the capture and extradition of the Venezuelan president.

美国石油公司如何反应，接下来我们会讲到。

How American oil companies are reacting is next.

好的。

Okay.

所以，这次突袭发生了，马杜罗已被拘押在纽约。

So, what now so this incursion happens, Maduro is in custody in New York.

据我们所知，特朗普现在对委内瑞拉及其石油工业有何计划？

What is Trump's plan now as far as we know when it comes to Venezuela and the oil industry there?

所以，特朗普总统大致勾勒了一个愿景。

So president Trump sort of laid out a vision.

我们将让美国最大的石油公司——全球最大的石油公司——进入委内瑞拉，投入数十亿美元，修复严重破损的石油基础设施，并开始为该国创造利润。

We're going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country.

然而，细节一直非常匮乏。

However, details have been scarce.

目前尚不清楚这一切将如何实现。

It's unclear how any of this would work.

但在周六之前，我们报道时了解到，美国石油和天然气公司并未与特朗普政府就此次行动进行过任何会谈。

But prior to Saturday, our understanding is when we reported this that there weren't any talks between US oil and gas companies and the Trump administration about the strikes.

雪佛龙公司在周六的一份声明中表示，其重点是确保员工安全以及公司在该国资产的完整性。

Chevron said in a statement Saturday that it's focused on the safety of its employees and the integrity of its assets in the country.

康菲石油公司的一名发言人表示，该公司正在密切关注委内瑞拉的局势发展，目前推测任何未来的商业活动或投资都为时过早。

A spokesman for ConocoPhillips said the company is monitoring developments in Venezuela and that it would be premature to speculate on any future business activities or investments.

石油行业的消息人士表示，企业对进入委内瑞拉会有所犹豫，部分原因是该国领导层的不确定性太大。

Collins sources in the oil industry say there'll be some reluctance to jump into Venezuela, in part because there's so much uncertainty about the country's leadership.

石油行业表示，他们不知道委内瑞拉政府明天会是什么样子。

The oil industry is saying that they don't know what Venezuela's government is going to look like tomorrow.

他们需要一个长期稳定的环境来进行投资。

They need sort of a long, stable environment to invest in.

因此，尽管特朗普总统已表示这些石油公司将在委内瑞拉投入大量资金，但具体细节仍不明确，我们可能在本周听到一些答案，因为政府正继续与石油公司就此进行磋商。

So while president Trump has sort of come out and and said that these oil companies are going to invest a lot of money in Venezuela, the details are unclear, and they may we we may hear some answers this week, as the administration continues talk about this with oil companies.

特朗普在顾问告诉他德爾西·羅德里格斯可能更愿意与美国公司合作后，目前谨慎地接受了委内瑞拉副总统德爾西·羅德里格斯。

Trump has for now cautiously embraced Maduro's vice president, Delsy Rodriguez, after advisers told him she might be more open to working with US companies.

她已被宣誓就任临时领导人。

She's been sworn in as interim leader.

情况更加复杂的是，委内瑞拉的石油属于重质原油，开采成本更高。

Making matters more complicated is the fact that the type of oil that's in Venezuela is heavier and more expensive to pump.

当油价较低时，比如目前的情况，投资的经济动力就更小。

And when oil prices are lower, like they are now, there's less of an economic incentive to invest.

如果石油公司进入委内瑞拉，他们可能获得多少收益？

How much do oil companies stand to gain potentially if they do get into Venezuela?

所以，我认为他们能获得的是在拥有巨大储量的地区占据一席之地，但在做出这些投资之前，他们也有许多重大考量。

So I guess what they would gain is a foothold in a place with massive reserves, but they also have big considerations before they can make those investments.

首先，如此规模的投资将在五到十年后才开始获得回报。

First of all, an investment on that scale would start seeing returns in five to ten years from now.

这对雪佛龙意味着什么？

What does this mean for Chevron?

它是唯一一家仍在当地运营的美国公司。

The only US company that has continued to operate there.

即使对于雪佛龙来说，目前也很难证明在委内瑞拉进行新的投资是合理的。

Even for Chevron, it's going to be tough to justify new investments in Venezuela at this juncture.

该国仍在从最近的动荡中恢复。

The country is still reeling from recent instability.

美国和委内瑞拉政府可能需要很长时间才能达成一种方法，促使这些公司重新投资委内瑞拉。

It might be a long time before The US and the Venezuelan government sort of mete out a method of getting these companies to reinvest in Venezuela.

你从这一切中得出的结论是什么？

What's your takeaway from all this?

也就是说，我们该如何理解这件事？

Like, what should we make of this?

我的结论是，特朗普政府基本上已经不再与马杜罗打交道，而总统希望石油行业能够重返委内瑞拉。

My takeaway was the Trump administration was essentially done dealing with Maduro, and the president wants the oil industry to go back.

他希望这项政策能带来经济收益。

He wants to see an economic benefit from this policy.

不过，要让这一目标实现面临诸多挑战，而解决这些问题将是未来石油行业的工作重点。

There are a lot of challenges though to making it work, and figuring that out will be in the realm of the oil industry going forward.

周日晚上，特朗普再次表示，美国在委内瑞拉掌握着主导权。

On Sunday night, Trump again said The US was calling the shots in Venezuela.

他说：‘我们说了算。’

He said, quote, we're in charge.

今天的内容就到这里，1月5日，星期一。

That's all for today, Monday, January 5.

《华尔街日报》是Spotify与《华尔街日报》的联合制作节目。

The Journal is a co production of Spotify and The Wall Street Journal.

额外报道由凯达尔·迪亚兹、大卫·休伯蒂和詹姆斯·芬内利提供。

Additional reporting by Kedral Diaz, David Huberti, and James Finnelli.

谢谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

明天见。

See you tomorrow.