如何像世界级营销大师一样思考 | 罗里·萨瑟兰

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

实际上这挺有意思的，因为机场某种程度上是精神分裂的——机场的客户群大致可以五五分成：一类是经常飞行、只想尽快通过安检的人；另一类是一年只飞一次、把去机场当成度假一部分的人，他们喜欢逛购物中心，看看Mez专卖店之类的。

Actually, it's kind of interesting because airports are schizophrenic in a way because the clientele of an airport is roughly speaking a fifty fifty mix between people who fly a hell of a lot and just wanna get through the damn thing as quickly as they can and people who only fly once a year who regard the trip to the airport as part of the holiday, and they love going through a shopping center and looking at the Mez outlets or whatever.

因此机场实际上是在服务两个完全不同的群体

And so airports are effectively catering for two totally disparate groups

的旅客。

of traveler.

你完全可以在安检队伍里区分出这两类人。

And you can separate these people in the security line effectively.

确实可以。

You can.

绝对没错。

Absolutely.

你可以把他们区分开

You can separate them.

这就是为什么，在某种程度上，你会注意到有时候安检优先通道的队伍比普通通道还长，但经常出差的商务旅客仍然会选择优先通道，因为他们认为前面的人更专业

And that's why, you know, in a weird kind of way, I think, you notice sometimes that the queue for the priority lane in security is longer than the queue for the amateur lane, but frequent business travelers will still join the priority lane on the assumption that the people in front of them are more competent.

我是说，就像《在云端》里乔治·克鲁尼演的那样

I mean, there's a George Clooney up in the air Yeah.

就是开这个玩笑

Gag about that.

对吧？

Right?

所以这很有趣，因为如果这是个非常可靠的机制，那它真的不理性吗？

And so it is very interesting because is it is it irrational if it's a very reliable mechanism?

好吧

So alright.

举个例子，我不认为现在这套机制还很好用，因为现在装腔作势的人太多了

One example would be I don't think it I don't think it works very well nowadays because there are enough posh spiffs around.

但在十九世纪，你知道，如果你是个体面且受人尊敬的房地产经纪人，你在当地社区有着极高的声誉资本，无论是商业上还是社交圈里，对吧？

But in the, you know, in the nineteenth century, if you were a posh and respected real estate agent, you had a lot of reputational skin in the game in the local community, both commercially in people you know?

所以你非常容易受到声誉损害的影响。嗯。

So you are highly vulnerable to reputational damage Mhmm.

无论是商业上还是社交上。

Both commercially and also socially.

嗯。

Mhmm.

因为，你知道，一个小镇在很大程度上会是一个声望经济体系。

Because, you know, a small town or a you know, would have been, to a large extent, a prestige economy.

因此，选择与当地体面的房产经纪人交易，而不是某个自称便宜的陌生人，这并非不理性。

And therefore, you know, dealing with the posh local estate agent rather than some guy who claims to be cheap is not irrational.

你知道，可能佣金会高些，诸如此类。

You know, then the you know, the commission may be higher, whatever it may be.

但就声誉资本作为防止遭受恶劣对待的保险而言。

But in terms of reputational skin in the game as insurance against being, you know, treated appallingly.

但是，你知道，我觉得这里面有种奇怪的现象，某种程度上房产中介的工作就是留在房屋售出的地方，承受任何离谱行为带来的声誉后果，因为房屋卖家如果搬到300英里外，其实就不太会受到声誉损害了。

But and, you know, I I think there's a kind of weird thing going on, which is that, you know, the the job of the real estate agent is to some extent to be the person who stays behind in the place where the house is sold to suffer the reputational consequences of, you know, of anything outrageous, because the vendor of the house isn't really reputationally vulnerable if they're moving 300 miles away.

所以，你知道，这些中介的部分角色就是非常复杂的。但我说这个的时候，我们似乎从根本上给某些体验赋予了极高权重，比如客服中心的体验对比网站设计，我绝不是暗示设计不重要。

And so, you know, some of the role of these intermediaries is just highly complicated, But when I say that, you know, we fundamentally seem to attach very, very high weighting to, for example, a call center experience versus website design, not suggesting for a second, design isn't really important.

这就像是有些体验是加减法，而有些则是乘法效应。

It's it's almost like there's some experiences that are sort of additive or subtractive, and then there's some that are multiplicative.

比如，你可以乘以零，也可以乘以十，全看那个特定因素的差异。

Like, you can multiply by zero or you can multiply by 10, like a difference in that one particular factor.

有一个非常有趣的组织。

There's a there's a really interesting organization.

我不记得他们在网上叫什么了。

I can't remember what they're called online.

他们称之为品牌地震。

They call this a brand quake.

品牌地震是指你做某件事时产生的连锁反应。

A brand quake is where you do something.

可能是把问题解决得非常好。

It could be resolving a problem really well.

这将是一个引发品牌地震的绝佳机会。

That will be a very good opportunity for a brand quake.

当一个人遇到问题时。

The person has a problem.

你投入大量精力和智慧高效地为他们解决问题，然后还会回电确认问题是否真的得到解决。

You put quite a lot of effort and intelligence into solving it very effectively for them, and then you ring them back to check that the problem has indeed been solved.

这就是一个典型案例。

Now that would be an example of something.

我给你举个...好吧。

I'll give you the per okay.

我给你讲个最完美的例子。

I'll give you the perfect story of this.

我父亲，你知道的，有一半苏格兰血统——当然不是要刻板印象——但他平时买东西确实非常精打细算。

My father, who is, you know, half Scottish and, without stereotyping anybody, you know, was quite parsimonious with what he bought generally.

我的意思是，我不确定——顺便说一句，我不是说这是遗传的。

I mean, I'm I'm not sure I'm not saying it's it's genetic, by the way.

我只是从文化角度来说。

I'm just culturally.

他祖上是苏格兰高地人，那些人能走到今天，靠的可不是挥霍无度。

He was descended from long lines of Highland Scots who didn't get where they were today by, you know, splashing out.

我记得他去世时，家里有三四台戴森设备，都是向你们购买的。

And he had, I think, three, when he died, he had three or four Dyson devices, which he'd bought from you in his home.

他每层楼都放了一台，省得搬上搬下。

He had one on each floor to save from carrying them upstairs.

客观来说，这些吸尘器都相当昂贵。

Now these are, by any objective measure, pretty expensive vacuum cleaners.

嗯。

Mhmm.

他如此狂热忠诚的原因之一在于——有意思的是我要说明一点——戴森是家私有企业。

One of the reasons he was so fanatically loyal was that Dyson now, interestingly, I'm gonna make a point here, which is a privately owned company.

嗯

Mhmm.

而且这一点的重要性绝不能被低估。

And that and do not do not underestimate the importance of this.

上市公司或在纳斯达克、证券交易所上市的公司，其行为模式往往被激励得像精神病患者，因为它们围绕短期交易价值而非长期关系建设进行优化。

PLCs or or or companies on the Nasdaq or the you you stock exchange are incentivized to behave like psychopaths because they're optimized around short term transactional value, not long term relationship building.

我想也许

I think maybe the

普遍规律是：如果是由创始人领导的私营公司，那么它们就不会由财务部门主导运营。

generalization is that if they're private companies led by a founder, then they're not run by the finance department.

这非常有趣，我经常思考这个问题——短期优化与长期有效性是两种完全不同的

It's so interesting, and I think about this a lot, where you have these short term optimization and long term effectiveness are two completely different

这是短期套现与长期价值积累的区别。

It is short term money off versus long term value on.

是的

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

所以你看，总有人比你赚得更多，但他们可能在走捷径，做些不可持续的事。就像你说的，短期总能省钱，但会损害品牌和声誉。

And so you can, there's always somebody making more money than you, but maybe they're cutting corners, maybe they're doing things that are unsustainable, and like you said, you can always save money in the short term, but do damage your brand and life.

顺便说一句，我的理论是这些私营企业成功的主要原因在于此。次要原因是他们更重视消费者，因为他们实际上不知不觉地践行着客户价值理念，而非股东价值理念。

By the way, my theory is the primary reason for the success of these private companies, The secondary reason is they look after their consumers better because they're effectively, unwittingly, they're practitioners in the customer value movement, not the shareholder value movement.

巴菲特有句名言，他在收购公司后给所有CEO的信中写道：'我对你们的唯一期望就是像经营家族百年企业那样经营公司，假设你和家人把全部身家都投在里面且无法撤资。'

Well, Buffett had this saying where his directive, his letter, I guess, to all of his CEOs after he acquired the company was, the only expectation I have for you is to treat this company as if you and your family have 100% of your money in it for a hundred years, and you can't take it out.

正是如此。

Exactly that.

对。

Yeah.

而且我认为这种理念，即使在上市公司中，也能促使人们着眼长远，做出最优决策。

And and I think that that approach enables, even in a public company, that enables people to take long term, do the thing that's optimal.

实际上他们确实会关照客户。不过有个有趣的例外可能是好市多，还有企业租车公司其实是家族企业对吧？

Actually, they do something they do something they look after their customers, and there is an interesting exception to this probably, which is, for example, Costco, which an actually, Enterprise Rent A Car is family owned, isn't it?

Enterprise是家族企业。

Enterprise is family owned.

是的。

Yeah.

而且我已经告诉过大家这一点。

In The and I've told everybody this.

在英国IPA广告效果奖评选中，我的观点是：除了宝洁、帝亚吉欧、联合利华这些以营销为主导的企业外，我不认为上市公司（你们怎么称呼来着，就是公开交易的企业？）

In the IPA Advertising Effectiveness Awards in The UK, My argument is that with the exception of P and G, Diageo, Unilever, marketing led companies, I don't think that PLCs what what do you call them in, you know, publicly traded companies?

企业。

Corporate.

我认为它们实际上很难做好营销，因为短期自我证明和数字的要求，实质上压倒了营销的真正目的——对长期客户价值的投资。

I don't think they can actually do marketing very well because the requirement for short term self justification and numbers effectively overrides the real purpose of marketing, which is investment in long term customer value.

我认为这就是为什么——稍微概括一下——创始人即使领导上市公司也能表现更出色。

I think this is why generalizing a little bit, but this is why founders outperform, even when they lead public corporations.

他们面临同样的压力、同样的分析师、同样的

They have the same pressures, the same analysts, same

但他们也在考虑后代，不是吗？

But they also are considering posterity, aren't they?

我的遗产是什么？

What is my legacy?

我的意思是，这其实很有趣。

I mean, it's interesting, actually.

德国汽车行业，尽管他们的上市公司某种程度上是家族经营的，比如著名的阿尔迪（拥有Trader Joe's），实际上主要由两个德国家族掌控。

The German car industry, although their public companies are sort of family run, Aldi famously, which owns Trader Joe's, is basically owned by actually two German families.

他们曾有过巨大纷争，但那里正在发生一些变化。

They had a huge feud, but something's going on there.

他们做的一件事是更好地照顾员工，我认为当你更好地照顾员工时，顾客会注意到。

One of the things they do is they look after their staff better, and I think when you look after your staff better, the customer notices.

嗯，这是好市多模式的一部分，我是说好市多。

Well, is part of the Costco thing, I mean Costco.

正是如此。

Exactly.

但这源于索尔·普莱斯的经营理念，他创办FedMart时就概述了企业的责任——我们与顾客之间存在信托关系。

But that comes from the Sol Price line of thinking, which when he started FedMart, he sort of outlined the obligation of our business is we have a fiduciary relationship with a customer.

顾客，没错。

Customer, yeah.

而创立好市多的吉姆·辛格尔曾是索尔·普莱斯的学生，后来他们还在意大利合并了公司。

And Jim Senegal, who founded Costco, was a student of Sol Price, and later on they would merge the companies in Italy.

他们当然这么做了，不是吗？

Of course they did, didn't they?

是的，你说得完全正确。

Yes, you're absolutely right.

我觉得这很有意思，当你更好地对待员工时...

And I think that's interesting, right, where you treat your employees better.

戴森有个不错的故事，这是家家族企业。

A nice story from Dyson, which is family owned.

事实上，我认为家族经营的企业——包括像庄臣这样的公司——应该佩戴某种标识。

In fact, I think family run companies, and this would include people like, SC Johnson, I think they should wear a badge.

你明白我的意思吗？

Do you see what I mean?

就像你有个风筝标志一样，对，对，对。

Just as you have a kite mark Yeah, on yeah, yeah.

Loblaws是家族企业，对吧？

Loblaws is family owned, isn't it?

比如在加拿大。

For example, in Canada.

家族掌控。

Family controls.

家族控制。

Family control.

McCain，家族控制。

McCain, family control.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我刚才说的广告效果奖，每两年才评选一次，五名金奖得主中有四个，这个奖项评审非常非常严格。

So what I was saying about the advertising effectiveness awards, four out of the five gold winners, it's only every two years, this award, and it's very, very rigorously judged.

五名获奖者中有四个，分别是麦凯恩，嗯。

Four out of the five winners, namely McCain, your Yeah.

加拿大的英雄。

Canadian, heroes.

麦凯恩、约克郡茶、Specsavers眼镜和Lathwaite's葡萄酒公司。

McCain, Yorkshire Tea, Specsavers, and Lathwaite's, a wine company.

五名获奖者中有四个。

Four out of the five winners.

第五个是健力士，某种程度上算是家族企业，虽然它现在归帝亚吉欧所有。

The fifth one was Guinness, which is sort of a family company in sense, although it's owned by Diageo.

所以我的观点是，我们其实应该设立一个认证标志，让消费者更愿意购买那些没有在某个股票交易所上市的公司产品，因为它们不受财务部门控制，因而更值得信赖。

And so my point is that, you know, we should actually have a kite mark that allows consumers to prefer to buy from companies which aren't listed on some stock exchange somewhere, and hence aren't controlled by the finance function because they're more trustworthy.

这很有趣，我不知道是否同意这个观点，但确实很有意思

That's an interesting I don't know if I agree with that, but it's interesting to

想想。

think.

罗杰斯公司还是家族控股吗？

Well, Rogers still family controlled?

我是说，加拿大遍地都是...好吧，他们没累。

Mean, Canada's absolutely packed full of Well, they didn't tire.

那这个呢？

What about that?

越来越多企业是家族控股，但不受经济控制。

Increasingly, you get family controlled, but not economically controlled.

所以就像双重股权结构。

So you have like a dual class.

因此韦斯顿家族在某种程度上仍能控制Loblaws超市，尽管他们不是大股东。

So the Western family would control Loblaws to some extent, even though they're not majority shareholder.

好吧，想想

Well, think

如果你拥有一家市值数千亿的公司并控制其10%或15%的股份，你实际上就掌控了这家公司。

if you have a corporation that's hundreds of billions and you control 10 or 15% of it, you effectively have control over the company.

当然，没错。

Of course, yeah.

福特汽车公司就符合这个定义。

Ford Motor Company falls into that definition.

我认为家族或某些特定类别的股票存在这种情况。

I think the family or some there's a particular class of shares.

很多双重股权结构正在出现，但等等。

A lot of dual class coming but hold on.

我想回到

I wanna go back

戴森的话题一会儿。

to Dyson for a sec.

是什么让戴森的广告如此有效？

What makes Dyson so effective at advertising?

实际上，这不是广告。

Actually, it's it's not advertising.

这是营销，是客户体验。

It's marketing, and it's customer experience.

营销和广告有什么区别？

What's the difference between marketing and advertising?

广告是营销的一个从属部分。

Advertising is a subordinate part of marketing.

而且，在很多情况下，尽管我在广告行业工作了三十六年，我可能并不成功，但我仍渴望成为一名营销人员而非广告人，因为广告只是营销人员可用的有效工具之一。

And, in many cases, even I've worked in advertising for thirty six years, I want to think of myself probably unsuccessfully, but I still aspire to be a marketer, not an advertising person, because advertising is a useful toolkit available to the marketer, and by the way, is pretty effective.

但正如彼得·德鲁克所说，企业的目的是盈利地找到并留住客户。

But Peter Drucker, the purpose of business is to find and keep a customer profitably.

这就是营销的目的。

That's the purpose of marketing.

它旨在，你知道的，要么创造要么寻找客户，随着时间的推移，你可以与他们建立互惠互利的关系，实现共同盈利。

It's to, you know, to, you know, to either create or find, customers with whom over time you can engage in mutually advantageous relationships to mutual profit.

就是这样。

That's it.

那么戴森在营销方面如此出色的原因是什么？

So what makes Dyson so good at marketing?

嗯，我从一位在戴森工作了十二年的人那里听到的故事是，他当时正参加一场由詹姆斯·戴森主持的汇报会，会上展示了客服中心的工作效率统计数据。

Well, the story I heard from someone who worked at Dyson for twelve years is that he was sitting in a presentation, James Dyson presiding, and they were presenting the call center sort of efficiency statistics.

顺便说一句，我对客服中心非常狂热，因为我担心在人工智能时代，人们会试图用自动化完全取代它们。

By the way, I'm absolutely fanatical about call centers because I'm terrified that in an AI age, people will try and effectively automate them.

我认为更好的做法是适当缩减规模但大幅提升质量。

I think what you should do instead is make them slightly smaller but a lot better.

嗯。

Mhmm.

因为我认为在处理异常问题、特殊情况或需要同理心时，人类是无法被替代的。

Because I don't think you can substitute for the human in cases of unusual problems, special circumstances, empathy, generally.

别误会我的意思。

Don't get me wrong.

我认为AI也能具备同理心

I think you can get AI empathy.

我并不是说AI会完全缺乏同理心，但在某些情况下，这就像'我要找你们经理'的情况

I'm not suggesting that AI is going to be completely unempathic, but at some point, it's rather like the equivalent of I want to speak to the manager.

总会有这样的情形：你需要和一个能理解你具体情况、有权打破常规来解决问题的人沟通，因为这样做才合乎常理——即使按照服务协议通常不允许我们寄送替换零件

There will be situations where you want to speak to a person who can understand your specific situation and has the power to intervene to override the normal rules and regulations to solve your problem because it is commonsensical to do so, even if, you know, service level agreement doesn't normally allow us to send out a replacement part.

既然你的零件有问题——就需要一个有权

In this case, since your part is faulty- Somebody who has the power

做正确决定的人

to do the right thing.

正是如此

Got it exactly.

而且我认为，最终你还是需要人类作为最后的求助对象

And I think, you know, I I think that will ultimately you'll have to have the human as the last port of call on that.

此外，客服中心是你唯一能发现那些人们无法通过其他渠道解决问题的途径

Also, your call center is the only way you can find out the problems that people can't solve anywhere else.

你明白我的意思吗？

Do you see what I mean?

我在微软遇到一位非常聪明的人，他们接手了一个相当小众的微软产品，把客服中心设在了开发团队中间。

So there was a very smart person I met at Microsoft who, they took over some fairly niche Microsoft product, they put the call center in the middle of the development team.

我认为英国航空的客服中心应该和董事会同在一层楼，因为那里能发现现有客户——最重要的人群——对你们不满的地方。

I mean, I would argue that the call center of British Airways should be on the same floor as the boardroom because it's where you find out where you're going wrong with your existing customers who are the most important people.

人们常谈论产品市场匹配、销售策略或定价策略，但事实上销售成功往往取决于更简单的因素——销售背后的系统。

You know people talk a lot about product market fit, sales tactics, or pricing strategy, but the truth is success in selling often comes down to something much simpler, the system behind the sale.

这就是我使用并喜爱Shop Pay的原因，因为没有人比Shopify更懂销售。

That's why I use and love Shop Pay because nobody does selling better than Shopify.

他们打造了全球第一的结账系统。

They built the number one checkout on the planet.

使用Shop Pay的企业转化率最高可提升50%。

And with Shop Pay businesses see up to 50% higher conversions.

这可不是四舍五入的误差。

That's not a rounding error.

这彻底改变了游戏规则。

That's a game changer.

注意力是稀缺资源。

Attention is scarce.

Shopify助您捕捉并转化它。

Shopify helps you capture it and convert it.

如果您在经营正经生意，您的商务平台需要触达客户所在之处——无论是网站、实体店、信息流还是收件箱。

If you're building a serious business, your commerce platform needs to meet your customers wherever they are on your site, in store, in their feed, or right inside their inbox.

他们思考得越少，购买得越多。

The less they think, the more they buy.

销量更高的企业都在Shopify上销售。

Businesses that sell more sell on Shopify.

如果您认真对待销售，后台技术的重要性不亚于产品本身。

If you're serious about selling, the tech behind the scenes matters as much as the product.

升级您的业务，使用和我同款的结账系统。

Upgrade your business and get the same checkout that I use.

立即注册享受每月1美元的试用期，请访问shopify.com/knowledgeproject（全部小写）。

Sign up for your $1 per month trial period at shopify.com/knowledgeproject, all lowercase.

前往shopify.com/knowledgeproject，立即升级您的销售体验。

Go to shopify.com/knowledgeproject to upgrade your selling today.

shopify.com/knowledgeproject。

Shopify.com/knowledgeproject.

你是否正在为工作中使用多种不同工具进行沟通、任务管理和日程安排而苦恼？

Are you struggling to manage your projects at work using lots of different tools for communication, task management, and scheduling?

事情本不必如此复杂。

It doesn't have to be this hard.

Basecamp是一款清新直观、值得信赖的项目管理平台。

Basecamp is the refreshingly straightforward, reliable project management platform.

它专为小型及成长型企业设计。

It's designed for small and growing businesses.

因此完全没有企业级软件那种复杂性。

So there's none of the complexity you get with software designed for enterprises.

复杂性会扼杀动力。

Complexity kills momentum.

Basecamp为您扫清障碍，让团队真正行动起来。

Basecamp clears the path so your team can actually move.

告别零散的邮件、无休止的会议和错过的截止日期。

Do away with scattered emails, endless meetings, and missed deadlines.

Basecamp将所有内容集中在一处：待办清单、留言板、聊天对话、日程安排和文档。

With Basecamp, everything lives in one place, to do lists, message boards, chat conversations, scheduling, and documents.

当信息分散时，注意力也随之分散。

When information is scattered, attention is too.

Basecamp将两者重新凝聚在一起。

Basecamp brings both back together.

Basecamp直观的设计确保每个人都清楚当前进展、责任归属和下一步计划。

Basecamp's intuitive design ensures that everyone knows what's happening, who's responsible, and what's coming next.

我们的运营主管对这个平台赞不绝口，总是第一个向他人推荐。

My head of operations swears by this platform and is the first person to suggest it to anyone.

如果你需要另一位资深推荐人，你应该联系她。

If you need another decorated referral, you should call her.

无论你是小团队还是成长型企业，Basecamp都能随你一同扩展。

Whether you're a small team or a growing business, Basecamp scales with you.

停止挣扎，开始取得进展，用Basecamp实现目标。

Stop struggling, start making progress, get somewhere with Basecamp.

免费注册请访问basecamp.com。

Sign up for free at basecamp.com.

这是地图与领土的问题。企业往往被地图（即电子表格、销量数据、等待时间等各种指标）所主导，但真正的领土是客户来电反映的实际问题。这就是科尔比申斯基的观点，

It's the map territory problem, So often the businesses are run by the map, which is like the spreadsheets, the volumes, the wait times, the whatever, but the territory is the customer calling in, and the problem That's Kolbyszynski,

对吧？

isn't it?

地图不等于领土。

The map is not the territory.

是的，他们正在经历这种情况。

Yeah, They're experiencing.

所以如果你不接触现实，就可能被地图扭曲认知。

And so if you're not touching reality, you can get distorted by the map.

但我

But I

想回到你刚才说的。

want to go back to you.

你其实是在说和丹·戴维斯完全相同的观点，即以客户价值为核心而非股东价值的公司有一个巨大优势，就是客户生活在现实世界中，因此你实际上扎根于现实。

You're saying, by way, exactly the same thing Dan Davis did, which is one huge advantage of being a customer value company, not a shareholder value company, is that customers live in the real world, and therefore you are actually rooted in reality.

而股东们（顺便说不是股份所有者）主要关注的是向投资者证明自身价值，因此他们实际上是在用高度人为的标准定义客户价值。

Whereas shareholders by the way, not share owners, but the shareholders are principally interested in justifying their own existence to their investors, and therefore they're dealing with a highly artificial construct in terms of defining the value of a customer.

但我认为对股东最有利的就是对客户最有利的。

But I think what's best for the shareholders is what's best for the customer.

只是人们存在时间认知上的错配。

It's just the timeline mismatch that people have.

所以如果你的时间线...其实这根本说不通。

So if your timeline for Well, it's incoherent, by the way.

股东价值运动完全缺乏连贯性——因为要基于什么时间框架？针对哪类股东？你们到底在优化什么？

The shareholder value movement's totally incoherent because over what timeframe, which shareholder, what are you optimizing for?

这完全是一派胡言，但对股市分析师非常友好，他们需要源源不断的季度数据来编造借口蒙混过关。

It's a completely incoherent nonsense, which is very, very friendly to stock market analysts who want a ready supply of quarterly data so they can bullshit their way out of things.

这对养老金持有者的价值完全是另一回事，因为它实际上阻碍了企业进行有效创新，

How valuable it is to people with pensions is a completely separate matter because one of the things it does is it prevents companies from innovating effectively,

而且

and

还阻碍了企业对客户关系进行合理投资。

it prevents them from investing properly in customer relationships.

好吧。

Okay.

回到戴森的话题。

Come back to Dyson.

你刚才正给我讲这个故事。

You were telling me this story.

有人在那里工作了十二年。

Somebody had worked there for twelve years.

他们一直在说些废话，什么平均通话时长啦，平均等待时间啦，就是那种典型的呼叫中心指标，核心就是如何尽快把客户打发掉。

They were going blah blah blah average call time, blah, blah, blah, average wait time, and it was the standard kind of call center metrics about effectively how quickly can we get these people off the phone.

当然，实际情况可能稍微复杂一点。

I mean, it's a bit more sophisticated than that.

你明白吗？

You know?

我确信会有一些满意度指标，但这本质上是从运营效率角度评估呼叫中心的表现。

I'm sure there's some measure of satisfaction, but it was kind of evaluating the call center on an operational efficiency standpoint.

而戴森直接说：立刻停下。

And Dyson basically said, stop right now.

你们完全搞错了方向。

You've got this all wrong.

我们应该这样看待问题：如果有客户选择联系我们，这是我们的荣幸，因此我们必须给予相应的重视。

The way we should look at this is we should treat it as an honor if one of our customers chooses to get in touch with us, and we should therefore respond to them accordingly.

就像我们因客户的联系而感到荣幸，而不是觉得被打扰或类似的意思。

As if we're flattered by the contact, not as if we're bothered by the interruption or words to that effect.

我可能是在替他说话，但大致上这就是会议上那人描述的情况。

I'm I'm putting words in his mouth, but this is roughly speaking what the person said happened in the meeting.

这非常有道理。

That makes a lot of sense.

顺便说一句，这就是为什么我父亲买了四台Dyson吸尘器。

I mean And by the way, that's why my father had four Diceans.

尽管他是个吝啬的人——希望你不介意我这么说他已故的父亲——但每次他打电话求助（可能一年才一次），他们都会做出令人惊叹的服务，真的非常非常帮忙，解决问题后零件第二天就到货。

Stingy man, though he was, I hope you won't mind if you're saying he was my late father, but every time he rang them up, which might have been only once every year, they did something astonishing, and they were really, really helpful, and they solved the problem, and the part arrived the next day.

有时他们甚至不收取更换零件的费用，因此他完全信任那些人，也愿意支付比其他吸尘器高得多的溢价——尽管那些吸尘器理论效果可能相同——正是因为这份信任。

Sometimes they didn't even charge for the replacement part, and therefore, he completely trusted those people and therefore was willing to pay an enormous premium, really, over other vacuum cleaners, which might have had the same notional effectiveness precisely because of that trust.

这里面有太多机会了，对吧？

There's so much opportunity here, right?

试想在一个我们正转向AI驱动呼叫中心的世界里竞争，如果我采取完全相反的方式

If you think of you competing in a world where we're moving to AI driven call centers, if I took the exact opposite approach,

顺便说一下，应该两者兼顾。

which is by the way, should do both.

一个真正出色的服务机构，既要为明确需求的客户提供高效精简的服务，也要为犹豫不决或身处特殊情况的客户提供极具同理心的服务。

A really, really good service organization allows for very streamlined, efficient service for people who know exactly what they want and extremely empathetic service for people who are undecided, uncertain, or find themselves in an unusual situation.

所以你需要两者兼顾。

And so you need to do both.

这就是我认为科技精英们完全搞错的地方——他们把技术机遇视为单向追求更高效率、更精简流程的捷径。

And that's that's where I think the the tech bros have got it all wrong because they see the opportunity of tech as being a one way street towards ever greater efficiency, streamlining.

我们得面对现实。

And let's face it.

科技兄弟对事物的追求并不符合常规思维。

Tech bros are not neurotypical in terms of what they want from things.

当你让科技兄弟及其管理咨询领域的跟班在决策中拥有过多权力时，你优化的方向可能与真实客户真正关心的东西相去甚远。

When you allow tech bros too much power over decision making, along with their running dog lackeys in kind of management consultancy, you're optimizing for something which may be very, very distant from what your real world customers really care about.

你把科技兄弟当成了某种否定力量。

You're using tech bros as like No.

不。

No.

说这个领域的工作人员不能代表全人类，这是完全合理的。

It's perfectly reasonable to say that the people who work in this field are not representative of the whole human population.

这是个合理的断言。

That's a reasonable assertion.

当你代表的是什么呢？

What is it you're representing when

不过你说的科技专家是指什么？

you say tech pro, though?

就像广告行业的任何人一样，科技行业的任何人——包括我自己在内——都过分相信广告能解决所有问题，我确实承认自己确实有这样的问题。

Anybody in a tech industry, just as anybody in advertising, myself included, is overweighted towards a belief in the ability of advertising to solve all problems, and I will truly admit that I am guilty as charged.

不过广告人没有太多机会让别人相信他们观点的正确性。

However, ad people don't get that much opportunity to convince other people of the rightness of their argument.

实际情况是，比如在营销领域，科技公司和销售技术栈的咨询公司——这很大程度上要归功于一位叫Adel Borky的人，他是一位非常有趣的自学成才的利比亚营销作家，前拳击手。

What has happened is that in marketing, for example, the tech companies, the consulting firms that sell stacks, And I owe a lot of this to a guy called Adel Borky, very interesting self taught Libyan marketing writer, former boxer.

阿德尔·博基，我类比弓形虫病创造了'技术虫染'这个词，指的是技术人员和顾问们已经接管了财务部门。嗯。

Adel Borky, and I coined the phrase technoplasmosis by analogy with toxoplasmosis, which is tech people and consultants have taken over the finance department Mhmm.

因此财务部门信任并要求营销部门提供的营销指标，并非那些最有利于长期建立品牌和客户价值的指标。

So that the marketing metrics the finance department has faith in and demands from marketing are not those metrics which are most conducive to building brand and customer value over time.

它们是那些最有利于向公司推销技术解决方案的指标。

They're the metrics which are most conducive to selling tech solutions to the companies.

哪些指标是最能

What are the metrics that are most

嗯，这完全是关于短期交易、漏斗底端的点击率，你知道的，就是如何以稍微高效一点的方式把钱塞给Meta。

Well, it's all about short term transactional, bottom of the funnel, click through, you know, how can you shovel money to Meta in a slightly more efficient way.

这完全与长期价值创造无关。

It's not about long term value creation at all.

对吧？

Right?

别误会我的意思。

Now now don't get me wrong.

所有这些漏斗底部的短期交易性工作都必须正确执行。

All that bottom of the funnel short term transactional stuff is very important to get right.

我并不是在贬低它，但这只是整个游戏的三分之一。

I'm not I'm not disparaging it, but it's only a third of the game.

对吧。

Right.

他们对另外三分之二的游戏不感兴趣，因为如果有人在呼叫中心上花钱，或者升级呼叫中心人员，或允许呼叫中心人员外呼，他们是赚不到钱的。

And they're not interested in the other two thirds of the game because they don't make money if someone spends money on their call center or, you know, upgrades their call center staff or allows the call center staff to call out.

嗯，不是这样的。

Well, no.

实际上是财务招聘。

Finance recruitment, actually.

她为国家医疗服务体系财务部门招聘人员。

She recruited people for n for National Health Service Finance.

所以她对性的态度，我认为只是她为国家医疗服务体系招聘财务人员所学到的经验的延伸。

So her approach to sex is merely an extrapolation of what she learned, I think, recruiting finance people for the National Health Service.

全是关于数量，而非价值创造和关系。

All about the quantity, not about the value creation, the relationship.

我喜欢这种量化偏见的思考方式。

I like this quantification bias thinking.

我是说，巴菲特——好吧，他理所当然是你心目中的英雄——他痴迷于投资公司的管理质量，不是吗？

I mean, Buffett, okay, you're quite rightly your hero, is that he was obsessed with the quality of the management of companies with whom he invested, wasn't he?

我的意思是，他确实痴迷于个人因素。

I mean, I'm not He obsessed with personal factors.

我读过

I've read

很多资料，我想我要给出一个微妙的答案，我其实不知道答案，所以先声明这一点。

a lot in, I think, I'm going to give a nuanced answer here, I don't know the answer, so I'll preface that with that.

我确实读过很多关于他在60年代做的事，他那时会雇佣私家侦探。

I did read a lot about what he used to do in the 60s, and he used to hire private investigators.

他想确认的，我认为不是关于这个人本身，而是他们言行是否一致？

And what he was trying to determine, I don't think it was anything about the person other than, does what they say line up with who they are?

如果答案是肯定的，我可以接受，因为我知道该期待什么。

And if the answer's yes, I can deal with that, because I know what to expect.

但如果答案是否定的，如果他们上班时声称自己很吝啬，却开着法拉利或豪车到处跑，这就对不上号了。

And if the answer's no, if they can't go to work and claim to be a penny pincher, If they go to work and say they're going to cut costs, but they're driving around with a Ferrari or whatever, like this is a thing, it doesn't line up.

所以我感觉他一直在试图评估人的可预测性，不知道这样说是否合理。

And so I feel like he was always just trying to assess the predictability of people, if that makes sense.

换句话说，就是看他们的一致性。

In other words, by looking at their consistency.

一致性。

Consistency.

是否

Did the

管理团队做到了他们承诺要做的事？

management team do what they said they were going to do?

资产负债表会变化，要知道，他对某些事情的重视程度与人们通常认为的不同。

The balance sheet changes over, you know, he had a different emphasis on things than people I think realize.

我个人认为，他的许多投资都是在寻求可预测性。

And I think with a lot of his investments, my personal take is he was looking for predictability.

这并非关乎巨大的颠覆，也从不涉及事物的彻底转变。

And it wasn't about massive disruption, it was never about things being turned around.

他在60年代末就退出了这种模式，多元化再投资是他们最后真正陷入的转型局面。

He got out of that in the late 60s with diversified refilling was the last real turnaround situation they sort of got themselves into.

他们很快就退出了。

They exited quickly.

他们吃了亏。

They got burned.

嗯，其实也不算真的吃亏，但有一天晚餐时我和芒格聊起这个，他说，我们只是意识到自己犯了个错误。

Well, didn't really get burned, but I was talking to Munger about this over dinner one day, and he's like, we just realized that we made a mistake.

我们在这行永远赚不到大钱，竞争异常激烈，而且我们毫无优势，所以他们尽快抽身了。

We were never going to make a lot of money in this business, and it was highly competitive, and we had no edge, and so they got out as quickly as they could.

我认为他买入的可预测性——至少是长期持有的标的——如果你观察这点，会发现非常有趣，因为就像你能隐约看到的铁路股那样。

And I think that the predictability of what he buys, at least his long term holdings, like if you look at that, I think it's really interesting, because it's like, you can kind of see it, the railroad.

五十年后人们不会再使用铁路运输了。

People aren't going be using the railroad in fifty years.

这是个很好的例子。

That's a great example.

所以它

So it

要建造一条与之竞争的铁路线将会极其困难。

would be unbelievably difficult to build a competing one.

但你

But you

如果业务可预测性强，你还可以加杠杆。杠杆是个有趣的东西，他说他们不常用杠杆，从整个公司层面看确实如此。但在铁路业务上，他们会适当增加债务，因为他们清楚收益情况，这非常可预测。

can also, you can lever it if it's predictable, and leverage is this interesting thing where he says they don't do a lot, and they don't when you look at the whole company, but on the railroad for instance, they'll put a decent amount of debt in the railroad, because they know what the earnings, it's very predictable.

而且他们对此很放心。

And they're comfortable.

能源业务也一样，他们投入大量资本的同时也承担了大量债务。

The same as the energy, where they're putting a lot of capital, they put a lot of debt in.

我和新斯科舍省的约翰·布拉格聊过，他基本上做了同样的事。

And I talked to this guy in Nova Scotia, John Bragg, and he sort of did the same thing.

于是他创建了牛津冷冻食品公司，这是个了不起的故事——他来自一个只有1100人的小镇，却成了亿万富翁。

And so he created Oxford Frozen Foods, he's this incredible story, he's this billionaire from this small town of 1,100 people.

我去过新斯科舍，那个地方叫什么来着？

I've been to Nova Scotia, what's it called?

牛津。

Oxford.

这个地方叫牛津，新斯科舍省。

It's called Oxford, Nova Scotia.

他不仅创办了一家，也不是两家，而是三家价值数十亿美元的公司，都来自这个只有1100人的小镇。

And he started not one, not two, but three multi billion dollar companies from this small town of 1,100 people.

他现在还住在那里吗？

Is he still there?

他仍然住在那里。

He's still there.

是啊，他们就是那样的。

Yeah, they're like that.

他也是个很棒的人，和他交谈很令人着迷，因为他基本上就是说，你看，他拥有北美最大的私营电信公司，而他说，我一点也不害怕负债。

Such a great guy too, and it was fascinating to talk to him because he basically was like, look, you know, he owns North America's largest private telecommunications company, and he said, I wasn't afraid of debt at all.

我们大规模加杠杆，多次全押，收购更多资产。

And we levered up massively, we went all in multiple times, acquiring more assets.

但如果有什么更波动的东西，他就会对债务感到非常紧张。

But if there's something more volatile, he gets very nervous about the debt.

所以如果有波动他就不会这么做，但他还有这种与华尔街常理相悖的观点，比如我不介意多付钱，我不介意付最多的钱。

So he wouldn't do it if there was volatility, but he also had this thing where it was so counterintuitive to what you hear on Wall Street, which is like, I don't mind paying more, I don't mind paying the most.

我当时就说，真的吗？这让我很惊讶。

And I was like, really, that surprises me.

他就说，嗯，很多这样的机会只有一次，我没有第二次机会。

And he's like, well, a lot of these things only come up once, I don't get another shot at it.

而如果我是私营公司，我没有上市公司股东，这笔交易我花五年而不是三年收回资金，我为什么要在乎呢？

And if I'm a private company, I don't have public company shareholders, and it takes me five years versus three years to get my money back out of the deal, why do I care?

我永远不会再得到这样的机会了，他们也不会再建一个这样的项目。

I'm never going to be offered this again, and they're not going to build another one.

所以说到地下的光纤，现在越来越难铺设了。

So when it comes to fiber optic in the ground, it's like it's getting harder and harder to do.

这是家什么公司，加拿大的电信公司吗？

What is this company, a Canadian company in telecoms?

是Eastlink Cable Communications。

It's Eastlink Cable Communications.

明白了。

Got it.

我听说过，是的。

I've heard, yeah.

对。

Yeah.

而且他们不仅为加拿大大部分地区提供有线电视服务，还拥有许多人们不知道的基础设施。

And so, but they, not only do they deliver cable to a large portion of Canada, but they own a lot of infrastructure that people aren't aware of.

他就说，嗯，这有什么区别呢？

And he's like, well, what difference does it make?

从那以后我就一直在琢磨这句话。

And I've been chewing on that nugget ever since.

你也可以从营销的角度来应用这个道理，对吧？

And you can apply this from a marketing perspective as well, right?

你有个客户，或者回到房地产话题上，你有个客户在找湖景房、小木屋、度假别墅之类的，不管在英国还是美国怎么称呼，你看到一处房产，客户预算比如50万美元，然后你找到一处70万的房产，值不值得多花那20万呢？

You have a client, or go back to real estate for a sec, you have a client who's looking at a lake house, or a cabin, or a cottage, or whatever you call them in The UK, or in The United States, and you get a property and you say my budget is, I don't know, say $500,000 and you find a property that's 7,000 Is it worth splurging on the $700,000 property or whatever it is?

问题的关键在于，这是否是一生仅有一次的机遇，我以后再也不会有这样的机会了？

And the answer is, is this like a once in a generation property that I'm never going to have the shot at again?

如果你能换个角度思考

And if you can frame things

通常来说，越是稀有的事物就越可能稀缺。

It's also much more likely to be scarce, the rarer you get generally.

然后过度支付，你让过度支付看起来是合理的，从某种意义上说它确实是合理的，因为这种情况只会出现一次。

And then overpaying, you make overpaying seem rational, and in a way it kind of is rational, where it's like, well, this is only going to come up once.

我正好有个朋友现在就在经历这种情况。

So I have a friend actually going through this now.

他们正在考虑购买一栋家族度假屋。

They're looking at buying a family cottage.

我就问他，你是怎么考虑这些事情的？

And I'm like, how do you think about these things?

他说，哦，我看中了一栋。

He's like, oh, I saw this one.

那里简直完美，就是价格有点超出预算。

It was perfect, but it was a little more money than

然后我提出了这个观点。

and I brought this up.

在湖边拥有一栋独门独户的度假屋，可以说是加拿大房产的黄金标准。

Having a cottage on a lake on which yours is the only cottage is the kind of gold standard for Canadian property.

那确实是梦想中的配置。

That would be the dream.

有很多湖泊。

Have a lot of lakes.

是的。

Yes.

但我一直听说那是

But I'd always heard that as

一种...但更像是，如果你想要第二套房产，你想要什么？

a kind of But it's sort of like, what do you want if you want a second property?

你想要离得近方便到达吗？

You want proximity so it's easy to get to?

你想要私密性所以周围没什么东西吗？

You want privacy so there's not a lot of things around it?

而这些条件很少同时出现。

And these things just don't come up very often.

尽管我们有很多湖泊，但顶级房产可能每个湖每五六年才出现一次。

In many lakes as we have, I mean, the prime properties come up maybe once every five or six years per lake.

正如基恩所说，长远来看我们都会死去。

And as Kean said, in the long term, we're all dead.

我们都会死去。

And we're all dead.

说真的。

Seriously.

总之，有个有趣的题外话——我们坐下时正在讨论高信任度与低信任度社会以及引入摩擦的问题。

Anyway, an interesting aside here, when we sat down, we were talking about high trust versus low trust societies and introducing friction.

是啊。

Yeah.

我在想，不妨花点时间聊聊这个。

I'm wondering, spend a beat on that for a second.

对了，我遇到一位你必须采访的人，叫菲利普·K·

Well, I met someone you must interview, by the way, called Philip K.

霍华德，他写过《没有律师的生活》等几本书。

Howard, who's written various books called Life Without Lawyers.

他刚写了一本书，现在即将出版，书名应该是《Can Do》，旨在重振美国'我能行'的精神。

He's just written a book which is coming out right now called, I think it's Can Do, which is restoring the spirit of American can do.

他认为经济衰退和社会萎靡很大程度上源于法律和监管过度干预本应留给人类主观判断的实践领域，我们创造了一种文化，让人们如此害怕做出主观决策，以至于他们往往依赖完全不合适的规章制度。

And he argues that a large part of economic decline and social malaise has come from the over intrusion of law and regulation into practices which should properly be left to subjective human judgment, that we've created a culture where people are so afraid of making a subjective decision that they fall back on often totally inappropriate rules and regulations.

还有一大批人——不总是政府雇员，私营部门同样如此——他们更关心的是遵守既定程序，而非结果质量。

And there are a whole bunch of people who are employed, not always by the government, just as much by the private sector, who are much more interested in adherence to approved procedure than they are in quality of outcome.

因为按规矩办事就不会被开除

Cause you can't get fired

规矩办事就不会

for following You the can't get

让我惹上麻烦。

me in trouble.

是你们让我按这个流程走的。

You told me to follow this procedure.

而常识是在某些情况下应该适时跳出流程，运用自己的头脑和判断力。

And common sense would be to opt out at some point in certain situations and use your brain and judgment.

但如果我不这么做，我就

But if I don't do that, I have

几乎没有好处可言，而且做出稍微反常不同的事情会带来相当大的声誉风险和职业风险。

little head eyed par apet, there's no upside, and there's considerable, reputational risk and and career risk from doing something slightly perverse and different.

但有一大堆论点。

But there are a whole bunch of arguments.

首先，大量高质量的人类决策本质上必须是默契和本能的，而非规范性的。

First of all, an awful lot of quality human decision making of necessity has to be tacit and instinctive, not regulatory.

有些人，我想可能是迈克尔·波兰尼说过，生活大多像万花筒。

There are various people, I think it might be Michael Polanyi, who says, most of life is like a kaleidoscope.

我们永远不会完全遇到相同的情况两次。

We never completely encounter the same situation twice.

嗯。

Mhmm.

因此，为普遍情况制定规范时——实际上人脑的伟大进化天赋就是适应环境——律师们当然喜欢这点，因为他们能从中获利。

And therefore, regulating for the universal when, in fact, the great evolutionary gift of the human brain is adapting to context is inherently lawyers love it, of course, because they make money out of this.

可以说，美国的法律体系已经渗透到各种领域，这些领域曾经只需要两个人友好协商就能找到创造性的解决方案来权衡利弊。

You know, arguably, the legal system, particularly in The United States, has strayed into all kinds of areas which were once settled by two humans amicably discussing something and possibly finding a creative resolution to to the trade off.

现在取而代之的是诉诸法律裁决，这种情况尤其因为美国缺乏侵权法改革而蔓延。部分原因是我昨天被告知，庭审律师是民主党最大的捐助者之一，因为他们抵制任何形式的侵权法改革。

That's replaced by effectively, we will take this to a legal decision, and that starts to infect, particularly because there's no tort law reform in The US, and that's partly because I was told yesterday, trial lawyers are among largest donors to the Democratic Party because they resist any kind of tort law reform.

这导致本该通过人类进化出的冲突解决能力来处理的问题，却被完全不恰当地套用法律框架来解决。在许多情况下，这些情境本就不完全适用法律规范，或者做出的法律裁决在特定情境下看似合理，却会引发荒谬的连锁后果。

This has led to things that should be solved through our evolved human talent for conflict resolution being solved through a totally inappropriate application of of legal structures to a situation which is, in many cases, not really adequately captured by law or where a legal decision is made which makes perfect sense within one setting, but which sets a precedent which leads to ludicrous second order consequences.

举个例子，如果你认可某个判例——我记得菲利普·K·霍华德经手的一个案子：

So, for example, if you accept the fact that a I think it's happened in one of Philip K.

有人要求砍掉他们街道上的树，因为他们某个孙子对树上掉落的坚果过敏。

Howard's cases, Someone demanded that trees were dropped down in their streets because one of their grandchildren was allergic to the nut that came off the tree.

问题是，如果接受这种看似仁慈慷慨的诉求，最终可能导致大范围毁林——因为只要有人声称对某种树过敏，就没人敢在任何地方种树了。

The argument would be that if you accept that, which may seem kindhearted and, generous within that particular frame of reference, ultimately you've opened up the path to widespread deforestation because nobody can grow a tree anywhere to which anybody could claim to be allergic.

英国有个有趣的案例：有人醉酒后闯入某主题公园，跳进一个很浅的池塘受伤，然后反手起诉公园。

There was an interesting case, in England where someone broke into a theme park or some park of some kind, and then while drunk, dove into a pond which wasn't very deep and hurt themselves, and then sued

结束

End of

酒。

wine.

最初在低级法院，他们认为应该设置浅水区警示标志，因为这个问题是可以合理预见的。

Origin in the lower courts, they said there should have been a notice warning of the shallow water because you could reasonably anticipate this problem.

后来案件上诉到高等法院——当时称为诺尔勋爵法院——他们裁定，如果按照这个判决的逻辑推演下去，所有的湖泊都将不复存在。

And then it went up to the high whatever it was, the Norlords at the time, and they said, if you took this ruling to its natural consequences, you would have no lakes.

你知道，那样就不会有游泳活动，不会有秋千，不会有游乐场，因为所有环境设施都必须围满警示标识，标明可能发生的各种负面后果。

You know, you would have no swimming, you would have no swings, you'd have no playgrounds, because everything would have to be girt around with warnings about every possible anticipated negative consequence that could arise from this part of the environment.

于是这就形成了一种观念——我认为——法律手段本应是最后选择，现在却成了默认解决方案。

And so what happens is that you've created a kind of idea, I suppose, where the legal solution has become the default when it should in fact be the last resort.

常识都去哪儿了？

What happened to common sense?

那么，这个论点是否就像你那位同胞——他叫什么来着？

Well, is this is the argument being that that your fellow countryman, what's his name?

罗尔斯顿·索尔说的那样。

Ralston Saul.

约翰·罗尔斯顿·索尔

John Ralston Saul.

你听说过他吗？

Have you come across him?

没有

No.

你们加拿大人太低估自己了

You Canadians totally underrate yourselves.

知道吗？

Know?

你们培养了很多优秀人才，却总想着从英国引进像我这样的人，或者从美国引进人才

You produce wonderful people, and you're always trying to import people like me from The UK or people from The US.

约翰·罗尔斯顿·索尔写过一本书，我记得叫《伏尔泰的私生子》

John Ralston Saul wrote this book, which I think is called Voltaire's Bastards.

嗯

Mhmm.

他提出人类大脑进化出了多种心智能力，而理性只是其中之一。

And he argues that human brains have evolved with a variety of mental capabilities, only one of which is the capacity for reason.

还有想象力、创造力、常识等等能力。

There's also the capacity for imagination, creativity, common sense, you know, etcetera.

我们拥有由几百万年社会性物种进化赋予的各种不同心理机制，却将理性奉为黄金标准。

We have a whole variety of different mental mechanisms at our disposal gifted to us by, you know, a few million years of evolution as a social species, and yet we've made rationality the gold standard.

顺便说，这就是广告行业工作的奇怪之处——我想理论物理学和创业领域也类似——这些领域的特别之处在于理性只是青铜标准。

This is what's weird about working in advertising, by the way, and I think it's probably similar to theoretical physics, and it's probably similar to entrepreneurialism, okay, which is what's unusual about those fields is that rationality is the bronze standard.

在广告业，如果有人指出问题，而你提出完全理性的解决方案，人们不会直接说'对'。

In advertising, if someone says, you know, this is the problem, and you come up with a completely rational solution, people don't go, right.

'太完美了'。

That's perfect.

'我们就这样做吧'——就像他们在金融或合规部门会做的那样。

Let's go and do it, as they would do in a finance setting or a compliance setting.

懂吗？

K?

在大多数机构决策中，理性，即

In most of decision making in in institutions, rationality, I.

论证质量是黄金标准。

E, quality of argumentation is the gold standard.

在广告行业，如果你提出一个理性的广告，人们会说，嗯

In advertising, if you came up with a rational ad, people go, yeah.

还行吧。

It's alright.

但你能做得更好一点吗？

But can you do a bit better?

你知道，有没有一则广告传达相同信息但更具情感吸引力？

You know, is there an ad that says the same thing but in a more emotionally engaging way?

有没有一则广告能用幽默的方式表达同样的内容？

Is there an ad that says the same thing in a way that's funny?

有没有一则广告能让人记住或促使人们采取行动的方式来表达这个？

Is there an ad that says this in a way people will remember or will act on?

那么广告创意工作有趣在哪里呢，要知道，我花了二十年时间要么在这些部门工作要么管理这些部门，就是，你知道，理性解决方案只是你的起点。

So what is funny about being an advertising creative, and, you know, I spent twenty years of my life either in or managing those departments, is, you know, the rational solution is where you start.

你

You

把它作为跳板去追求更好的东西。

use it as a springboard to something better.

有句名言，说来有趣，我想是尼尔斯·玻尔说的，他说，你这不是在思考。

There's a famous quote, you know, fascinatingly from, I think, Niels Bohr, who said, you're not thinking.

你只是在做逻辑推理。

You are merely being logical.

对吧？

Isn't it?

我想你们都明白这一点。

I think you all know that.

他是个有趣的人，不是吗？

He was an interesting guy, wasn't he?

就他而言，因为正是这个人说过在枯燥的物理学中，好想法的对立面是错误的，但在高能物理学中，好想法的对立面可能是另一个好想法。

In terms of his, because he also was the person who said the opposite of a good idea, in boring physics, the opposite of a good idea is wrong, but in high level physics, the opposite of a good idea might be another good idea.

是啊。

Yeah.

我们能从疯狂广告人时代的营销中学到什么至今仍适用的经验？

What can we learn from marketing from the madman era that's still true today?

我认为当时有一种共识，而且代理机构的报酬体系也体现了这点——因为你是按佣金获取报酬的。

I think there was an understanding then, and the remuneration of agencies respected this because you were paid on commission.

所以如果你有个绝妙创意并策划了一场活动，客户投入数百万推广，你就能从这个创意中持续获利多年。

So if you had a big idea and you came up with a campaign and the client spent millions running the campaign, you made money from that campaign for years after you'd conceived it.

这就像书籍版税一样。

So it was rather like having royalties on a book.

哦，明白了。

Oh, okay.

我们当时没意识到这一点。

We didn't realize that at the time.

后来媒体独立出现了，于是我们不得不像律师和管理顾问那样按小时收费，这种收费方式简直是灾难性的，我们至今未能恢复。

Then media independence came along, and so we had to be paid by the hour, like lawyers and management consultants, and we've never recovered because it's a catastrophic way to be paid.

我说这种收费方式之所以是灾难性的，是因为市场营销实际上属于肥尾分布。

And the reason it's a catastrophic way to be paid, my argument is that marketing is actually fat tailed.

创新、研发、药物研究和科学领域也是如此。

So is innovation, r and d, pharmaceutical research, science.

明白吗？

Okay?

换句话说，你工作中5%到10%的部分可能创造了110%的价值。

In other words, five to 10% of what you do delivers perhaps a 110% of the value.

因此按小时支付报酬，并要求每一份努力都必须与价值创造保持某种精确的比例关系。

And therefore paying people by the hour and demanding that every quantum of effort has to be matched to a quantum of value creation in some neat proportion.

这就是市场的运作方式，别在意广告那部分。

This is so the way market never mind advertising that.

好的。

Okay.

对。

Right.

让我们把市场营销作为一个整体学科来看待，在组织中广告并不一定是其重要组成部分。

Let's look at the whole of marketing as a discipline within an organization of which advertising is not a not necessarily very important part.

要知道，对许多组织来说，他们在购买传播上的实际投入可能相对微不足道。

You know, for a lot of organizations, it may be, you know, relatively trivial what they actually spend on bought communication.

另一方面，比如你如何设计接待处之类的细节。

On the other hand, you know, how you design your reception or, you know, whatever.

要知道，这仍然属于心理学在价值创造中的应用范畴。

Know, that that's still affected to the application of psychology to value creation.

假设你有个绝妙创意，而这个创意的价值可以持续十年之久。

Let's say you have a brilliant idea, and the value of that idea lasts goes on for ten years.

我经常看到这种情况发生。

I've seen this happen all the time.

比方说这个创意是某家广告公司提出的。

The agency let's say an agency had the idea.

很可能这个想法是客户自己提出的。

It may well have been the client who had that idea.

他们要对每一分钱的成本负责，嗯。

They are held responsible for every single unit of cost they incur Mhmm.

年复一年，年复一年。

Year by year by year by year.

你不能用2023年那个伟大创意创造的价值来抵消这些成本。

You cannot offset any of those costs against the value you created in 2023 by having a huge idea.

让我举个例子。

Let me give you an example.

有个绝妙的创意是为一家规模庞大的美国快消品公司设计的。

There's a an enormous idea for a very large, enormous American, let's say, fast moving consumer goods company.

这个创意出自奥美澳大利亚分公司。

It was an idea conceived by Ogilvy Australia.

过去十年间，这个创意为该公司创造了超过十亿美元的收益。

It has made that company in excess of a billion dollars in the last ten years.

它仍在运行。

It's still running.

它在大约100个市场中运行。

It runs in something like a 100 markets.

至今仍然有用。

Still useful today.

对于那个创意，澳大利亚的代理商获得了35万澳元的报酬，或者说那是他们从中赚取的金额。

For that idea, the agency in Australia got paid 350,000 Australian dollars, or rather that's what they made from it.

换句话说，你有一个价值十亿的点子。

So in other words, you have a billion dollar idea.

你只能在悉尼的破地方买个小公寓。

You get to buy a small flat in a crap part of Sydney.

我现在要说的是，这并不是我在抱怨广告行业。

Now what I'm saying is that, this is not me bleating about the advertising industry.

这就像研发或营销一样，属于肥尾现象——用杰夫·贝佐斯的商业比喻来说，就像棒球比赛你最多只能得四分。

It's saying that anything like r and d or marketing, which is fat tails, in other words, a small percentage of what you do it's Jeff Bezos' point about in business, in baseball, you can only score four.

在商业中，你可以获得一千分。

In business, you can score a thousand.

在营销领域，当你获得一千分时——而且营销的目的一半目的不在于运营性的、渐进式的改进。

In marketing, when you score a thousand, which and the purpose half the purpose of marketing is not operational, gradual, incremental improvement.

关键在于找到另一种方法击出全垒打，拿下100分。

It's finding another way to hit the ball out of the park and score a 100.

如果你不能为此邀功——除非它在你产生想法的季度或财年内就实现了价值——那么你的营销投入就是不足的。

If you cannot claim the credit for that except to the extent that it delivers value in the quarter in which you had the idea or the financial year in which you had the idea, you are underfunding your marketing effort.

这就好比对J说：想象你去告诉JK·罗琳，'好吧

So it's like saying to j imagine that you went to JK Rowling and said, yep.

你可以获得《哈利波特》的版税，但仅限于第一版'。

You can have the royalties on the Harry Potter books, but only on the first edition.

因此，长期营销创意——当你按小时计费或像营销人员那样按季度考核时——

And consequently, long term marketing ideas, when you're paid by the hour or when you're evaluated by the quarter as marketers would be.

你总不会走进一家制药研究公司说'这周必须研发出重磅药物'吧

Now you wouldn't go into a pharmaceutical research company and said, you invent a blockbuster drug this week.

不。

No.

否则你们全都会被解雇。

Or you're all fired.

你必须接受这个事实：你实际上花了一大笔钱。

You accept the fact that you spend a load of money effectively.

好吧。

Okay.

这就是残酷的真相根源。

This is the root brutal truth.

好的。

Okay.

你不会在棋牌俱乐部里找到企业家。

You don't you don't find entrepreneurs in chess clubs.

你会在赌场里找到企业家。

You find entrepreneurs in casinos.

他们在玩扑克。

They're playing poker.

他们在玩双陆棋。

They're playing backgammon.

你知道，他们在玩带有偶然性高回报的赌博游戏。

You know, they're playing games of chance with an occasional very high payoff.

生活中很多事都是这样，但你无法提前知道巨额回报会从哪里来。

And a lot of life is exactly like that, but you don't know where the huge payoff's gonna come in advance.

那些为了财务可预测性而运营这些组织的人，正试图把它变成国际象棋。

The people who are running these organizations for the benefit of financial predictability are trying to make it chess.

他们试图将其简化为一种最多只能得1分的游戏。

They're trying to turn it into a reductionist game where the most you can score is one for a win.

他们试图设置上限。

They're trying to put a ceiling on.

他们实际上是在假装这是一个低方差、可预测的机械化过程。

They're trying effectively to pretend it's a high variance mechanistic, low variance mechanistic, predictable process.

没错。

Right.

在你确保自己不会饿死、死亡等基本生存需求后，生活中50%的精力都应该用来尝试获得幸运。

50% of your effort in life, once you ensure the fact that you're not gonna starve to death, die, etcetera, you know, you've looked after your children, should be attempts to get lucky.

用纳西姆的话说——我很喜欢这个说法——就是'扩大你对正面上升机会的接触表面积'。

In other words, what Nassim would say, I love this phrase, increasing your surface area exposure to positive upside optionality.

你知道的，就是寻找机会。

You know, finding opportunity.

但稍等一下。

But hold on for one sec.

我想回到这个话题。

I wanna go back to this.

我想大声梳理一下这个观点，可能我想得不对。

I wanna think about this out loud here, and maybe I'm wrong.

对于书籍来说，这很棒。

With a book, it's great.

我写一本书，只要内容过硬，接下来一百年都能持续销售。

I write a book once, I can sell it for the next hundred years, assuming I've earned it on my roof.

是啊。

Yeah.

你有个绝妙的营销创意，能在未来十五年持续创造价值

You have a great marketing idea which continues to add value for the next fifteen years

区别在于

The difference is some

这部分收益应该用来抵扣你当前的营销成本。

of that credit should be offset against your current marketing costs.

对吧？

Fair?

不同之处在于营销也可能适得其反。

The difference is marketing also can go the other way.

就像捷豹汽车或Cracker Barrel餐厅那样（不知道你是否关注过相关案例），营销也可能产生负面价值。

And like Jaguar, perhaps, or Cracker Barrel, I don't know if you followed the so you can create negative value.