Kunal Shah：人类核心动机

所以我可以在相邻的市场中推出产品，人们会自然而然地信任它们，因为他们不知道该信任谁或信任什么？

So I can I can create products in adjacent marketplaces that people will just naturally trust on their own because they don't know who to trust or what to trust?

但如果像Facebook这样的公司去造车，人们会非常怀疑。

But if, like, Facebook were to make a car, people would be pretty skeptical.

平台的信任感并不一定会传递过去。

The trust of of the platform would not necessarily carry over.

是的。

Yeah.

这个概念在印度特别有趣，因为它真的行得通。

And and it's such a fascinating concept in India because it just works.

我的公司，我就亲眼见过。

My company, I've seen that.

我们从事金融科技业务。

And we are in a fintech business.

我们推出了一家电商平台，一个月内就迅速壮大，这让大多数人，包括我们的投资者——他们大多来自西方市场——都感到惊讶。

We launched an e commerce platform and it just becomes so big in a month's time, much to most people's surprise, including our investors who are mostly from the Western market.

他们只关注一点。

They're like focus.

在亚洲市场，专注几乎是一种诅咒。

Focus is almost a curse in Asian markets.

哦，深入说说这个。

Oh, go deeper on that.

市场不够深，无法只专注于一个市场并打造一家大公司。

The market is not deep enough to focus on one market and create a large company.

人均收入、整体经济等等都不够。

The per capita income, the total economy, and all of that.

所以你必须向同一群客户交叉销售更多产品。

So you have to cross sell more things to the same set of customers.

我给你一些关于印度的有趣数据，这些数据大多数印度以外的人可能都不知道。

I'll give you some interesting stats about India, which should be mostly not known by most people outside India.

不到6%的印度城市女性拥有自己的收入。

Less than 6% of urban Indian women have financial income of their own.

其中94%的女性目前在照顾孩子或操持家务，没有参与劳动力市场，但她们都受过教育。

94% of them are currently taking care of kids or taking care of the family and not contributing to the labor force, but they're all educated.

她们可能是本科、研究生甚至更高学历，却未参与劳动力市场。

They are probably undergrad or grads or or even higher, but not contributing to the labor force.

另一个有趣的现象是，印度95%的金融产品都是由男性购买的。

Another interesting thing is 95% of all financial products in India are bought by men.

信用卡、汽车贷款、住房贷款、所有投资都是如此。

Credit cards, car loans, home loans, all investments.

印度目前的人均年收入已接近2000美元。

India has now nearly $2,000 per capita income annually.

但如果你剔除前3000万个家庭或3000万个人，人均收入将降至约600美元。

But if you remove the top 30,000,000 families or 30,000,000 individuals, the per capita income would drop to maybe $600.

因此，许多西方市场喜欢来到印度，说印度是下一个中国。

And therefore, lot of Western markets love to come to India and say, oh, India is the next China.

但这并不成立，因为我们的 per capita 收入永远不会像中国那样增长，因为在富裕之前，中国96%的城市女性都在工作，这是由于独生子女政策迫使社会走向中性化，并让所有女性进入劳动力市场，而印度从未发生过这种情况。

It's not because our per capita income is never going to beat and grow like China because before China started becoming affluent, 96% of Chinese urban women were working because of the one child policy which forced it to become a general neutral society and got them all on the labor force, which never happened in India.

网络正在中断。

Internet is going down.

这是一个令人担忧的趋势。

That's a scary trend.

在整个地区，印度的女性劳动参与率最低。

Across the region, India has the lowest female participation of labor.

现在人均收入不会增长，因此许多外国公司热衷于进入印度，因为印度是全球的活跃用户农场。

Now the per capita income is not going to grow, and therefore, a lot of foreign companies love to come to India because India is the DAU farm of the world.

所有大型互联网巨头都会说，哦，我在印度有5亿用户。

All the big Internet giants will say, oh, I have 500,000,000 billion users in India.

如果查看每用户平均收入并仔细分析，它将低于一美元或两美元。

If look at the ARPU and peel the ARPU, it'll be less than a dollar or 2.

但这很棒。

But it's great.

比如，如果你在推特上有很多印度粉丝，你的推特账号粉丝数会疯狂增长。

Like, for example, if you got a lot of Indian followers on Twitter, your Twitter account follower count will go like crazy.

你的变现问题可能会下降。

Your monetization question might go down.

我认为像Snapchat、Twitter这样的许多公司都付出了巨大努力来扩大在印度的用户基础。

And I think many companies like Snapchat, Twitter have worked very hard to grow user base in India.

Facebook是一个典型的例子。

Facebook is a classic example.

YouTube，我猜测它在印度的年ARPU可能低于2美元，而印度的活跃用户数量可能超过5亿到6亿。

YouTube, my bet would be that it would be probably making less than $2 ARPU annually in India with probably more than 500, 600,000,000 active users in India alone.

但它们并不在意，因为全球ARPU弥补了ARPU结构的差异，但用户群体无法从其他地方获得。

But they don't mind that because the global ARPU compensates for the ARPU mix, but the user mix cannot come from anywhere else.

因此，市场会奖励那些像Netflix这样错误地进入印度并说‘我们要收费’的公司。

And therefore, the market will reward like Netflix made the mistake of coming to India and say, we'll charge you for it.

没人愿意付这个钱，因此预测未能实现，因为印度是一个你提供免费服务就能获得所需DAU的国家。

Nobody is gonna pay that, and therefore, the projections did not meet because India is a country where you give them freebies and you get all your DAUs you want.

你得不到你的ARPU。

You do not get your ARPU.

我认为这就是他们学到的教训。

And I think that's the lesson they learned.

我认为他们现在说，我们会通过广告来推出市场。

And I think they are saying now we'll launch market with advertising.

印度非常适合这一点，因为时间的价值对我们来说不是一个概念。

India is perfect for that because value of time is not a concept for us.

所以我们愿意观看。

So we'll watch.

在印度，当一部电视剧在电视上播放三十分钟时，大约有九分钟是广告。

In India when a series plays on TV of thirty minutes, approximately nine minutes is ads.

天啊。

Oh my gosh.

顺便说一句，以前更多。

By the way, it used to be more.

政府进行了监管，将其规定为九分钟。

The government regulated and made it nine minutes.

所以如果人们不是按小时计酬，那他们是如何获得报酬的呢？

So if people aren't paid hourly, how are they how are they compensated?

这又是怎么运作的呢？

How does that work?

我们有一个月薪的概念。

So we have a concept of monthly salary.

我们甚至不是每周发薪，而是每月发一次。

We're not even paid weekly, so we are paid every month.

每个人都以月为单位思考。

And everybody thinks in month.

对吧。

Right.

这是一个有缺陷的概念，因为他们从不解决或思考如何在生活中提高效率。

It's a flawed concept because they never solve or think about being efficient in life.

除非你知道自己的薪水和时薪，否则你永远不会真正理解时间的价值。

Unless you know your salary and hourly basis, you will never really know what the value of time is.

我在印度看到一个有趣的现象：在美国坐飞机时，很多人在读书或做其他事情。

One fascinating thing I've seen in India is that you fly in The US and many people are reading books or doing something else.

但在印度，几乎没人读书，我注意到一个非常奇特的行为：他们会上WhatsApp删除旧照片，以便腾出内存空间，而不是花1美元购买云存储服务。

In India, nobody is really reading books and many of them I have seen a very peculiar behavior in India is they are going to WhatsApp and deleting old pictures so that it can clear up the memory instead of buying a $1 pack that will give them a cloud access.

这就是时间的价值。

That's the value of time.

而这些行为发生在印度最富裕的人群身上，他们都是坐飞机的。

And these are by the the most affluent people in India fly.

他们明明不可能花两个小时去删除WhatsApp里的照片，但他们却这么做了，因为他们没有直观地理解时间的价值。

So there is no way they can spend two hours deleting pictures on WhatsApp but they do because the value of time is not understood intuitively.

我经常在我身边的人身上看到这种情况。

And I've seen this all the time in people around me.

那些身家数百万的人，会拼命节省50美元。

People who are multimillionaires will work so hard to save $50.

这简直可笑。

It's not even funny.

就像我父母一样，他们会开车四十五分钟，只为每升汽油省两美分。

Just like my parents, they'll drive forty five minutes to save 2¢ a liter on gasoline.

是的，但他们从未在一种社会中工作过。

Yeah, but they never worked in a society.

他们成长的环境中，时间价值根本不是一个概念。

They did not grow up in a society where value of time was a concept.

对吧？

Right?

所以我认为，这种现象更多源于那些世界和西方社会，比如我们必须高效、工业化、重视每小时的价值。

So I think it's a more phenomena coming from those world and western society like, oh, we have to be efficient, industrialization, value per hour.

生产力，如果我问印度的十个人什么是生产力，我想我得不到一个像样的答案。

Productivity, if I ask 10 people in India what productivity means, I don't think I'll get a good answer.

但如果你试图推销一种能节省人们时间的产品，它不会引起共鸣，因为你不仅要让他们相信这值得做，你实际上是在试图改变当前文化中根深蒂固的东西，而我想象随着财富增加，这种状况正在缓慢改变。

But then if you try sell something based on sort of saving people time, it's not gonna resonate because you have to not only convince them that this is worth doing, you're really trying to change something that's inherent in the culture right now, which I would imagine is slowly changing as wealth becomes more.

不是这样的。

I it's not.

你说得有趣，但印度是美国之后，可能是SaaS提供商、SaaS商业软件提供商收入排名前三的市场，对吧？

It's funny you're saying that, but India is after The US, maybe in the top three markets of SaaS providers, SaaS business software providers, right, on revenue.

但它们都没有来自本地市场的任何收入，因为没有任何企业愿意为软件付费。

But none of them have any revenue from the local market because no business pays for software.

他们会觉得：哦，我直接多雇三个人，让他们干就行了，因为他们根本不理解软件能让他们高效得多。

They're like, oh, I'm just going to hire three more people and they'll just work because they don't understand the software could make them so much more efficient.

我找不到一家靠向印度企业销售软件而年收入超过一千万美元的公司。

And I wouldn't be able to find one company that makes more than $10,000,000 annual revenue by selling software to Indian businesses.

这太疯狂了。

That's crazy.

如果你仔细想想，这很可怕：我们的经济规模这么大，企业数量这么多，我们对互联网这么熟悉，我们在使用智能手机和数字支付方面可能更精通。

Which is scary if you think about it, how large our economy is and how many businesses we have and how internet savvy we are, we are probably more savvy in using smartphones and digital payments.

事实上，印度的数字支付已经超越中国，发展得非常迅猛，这经常被人提起。

In fact, one of the things that is talked about in India's digital payments have overtaken China and we have like taken off.

但大多数人不会告诉你，这一切是在政府让数字支付免费之后才起飞的。

Most people don't tell you that it took off after government made it free.

资金转账是即时的，但没人赚钱。

Money transfer is instant, but nobody makes any money.

那就是它开始腾飞的时候。

That's when it took off.

当我们收取1%到2%的交易手续费时，它从未兴起。

When we had charged 1%, 2% MDR to do that, it never took off.

因此，这种对时间价值、信用理解、以及将时间、精力、金钱纳入同一等式进行思考的方式，极其困难。

So the thing is that this value of time, understanding credit, value of time and this math of thinking of time, energy, money in one equation is extremely hard.

你现在正在运营你的第二个大型创业公司。

You're on your second big startup now.

我们是怎么走到这一步的？

How do we get here?

给我讲讲你的第一个创业经历，以及你目前在做什么，然后我们再接着刚才的话题继续。

Walk me through your first and what you're doing right now, and then then we'll pick up where we left off here.

我第一个创业公司是从2010年到2015年建立的，当时可能是印度最大的一笔退出交易，这家公司的业务如下。

So my first startup I built from 2010 to 2015 probably the largest exit at that point of time in India and that startup did the following.

允许用户为手机充值。

Allowed people to recharge their mobile phones.

在印度，99%的用户都是预付费用户，这意味着他们没有订阅任何套餐。

In India 99% of connections are prepaid which means they are not on any plan.

人们为这种服务充值，这再次体现了低信任社会的特征。

People refuel their this is again low trust society.

没有人愿意互相提供信用。

Nobody giving credit to each other.

所以人们只是不断充值、使用，然后再充值。

So people just top up money and use it and then top up again.

但这些充值行为都没有在线完成。

But none of that was top up was done online.

于是我搭建了这个平台，并允许用户通过我们的平台使用零售商提供的充值券。

So I built that platform but what I did is I allowed people to get some vouchers of retailers for recharging on our platform.

这个平台叫做FreeCharge。

It was called FreeCharge.

它迅速大规模兴起，因为时间价值，或者说我得到了一些激励。

And it took off in a very big way because, again, value of time or I'm getting some incentive.

人们实际上选择了我们的平台，而不是去其他地方。

People actually chose our platform versus going to somewhere else.

由于效率更高，人们纷纷转向了这个方向。

And because it was more efficient, people just shifted in that direction.

我意识到，我通过这种方式瞄准了大众市场，但根本无法盈利。

What I realized that I was going for the mass market through that but it was impossible to monetize.

他们根本没有钱。

They just did not have any money.

所以我离开第一家公司的之后，花了很多时间，为多家公司提供咨询，并加入多个董事会。

So after I exited the first company I spent a bunch of time I was advising multiple companies joining the advisory board of boards.

其中一家是一家媒体公司。

One of them was a media company.

其中一家是红杉资本。

One of them was Sequoia Capital.

我花了很多时间去了解投资。

I spent a bunch of time understanding investments.

我也到处进行天使投资。

And I was also angel investing in left, right, and center.

我现在可能已经是印度两百多家公司的天使投资人了。

I was probably I'm probably an angel investor in maybe 200 plus companies now in India.

我学到的是，每个人都在复制西方的商业模式。

What I learned was that everybody was building these businesses by copying Western models.

免费充电是为数不多的原创想法之一。

Free charge was one of the few original ideas.

我之所以创办一家原创公司，是因为我没有工程背景。

The reason I built an original company because I had no engineering background.

我没有朋友曾经创办过科技初创公司。

I had no friends who had built tech startups.

事实上，我甚至没觉得自己在创办一家科技初创公司。

In fact, I didn't even think I was building a tech startup.

我以为自己在创办一家营销公司，结果却成了印度最大的支付公司之一，因为我从未读过TechCrunch。

I thought I was building a marketing company, which turned out to be one of the largest payments company in India because I had never read TechCrunch in my life.

事实上，当红杉资本联系我时，我还想：这些人是谁？

In fact, when Sequoia reached out to me, I'm like, who are these guys?

你们干嘛浪费我的时间？

Why are you wasting my time?

我根本不知道他们是谁。

I had no clue who they were.

我几个月都没理他们的邮件，直到有人告诉我：嘿，他们可是大人物。

I ignored their emails for months till somebody told me, hey, they are really big deal.

你得去了解一下。

You need to check them out.

我说：好吧。

And I'm like, okay.

我就去了。

I went there.

我记得他们问库纳尔：你的客户获取成本是多少？

And and I remember they asking them, so Kunal, what's your CAC?

我当时根本不知道这个词是什么意思。

And I had no clue what that word meant.

我认为这是一种超能力。

And And I think it's a superpower.

我认为词汇量是我们所承受的独特诅咒，每一个我们认识的词都是如此。

I think vocabulary is a unique curse that we suffer every word we know.

如果你不懂这些词，可能就不会遭受这些困扰。

If you don't know these words, we'll probably not suffer them.

我认为从那次经历中学到的是，你需要专注于正确的市场，因为即使你是最伟大的创始人。

And I think what I learned from that experience was that you need to focus on the right market because you can be the greatest founder.

如果你进入了一个糟糕的市场，你就会失败。

If you meet the bad market, you will die.

但如果你找到了一个拥有巨大顺风的市场，即使是一个平庸的创始人也会做得非常非常好。

But if you find a market that has huge tailwinds to it, even a mediocre founder will do really, really well.

对吧？

Right?

所以我认为市场就像物理定律。

So I think market is like laws of physics.

我在印度看到一个非常有趣的现象：许多聪明人正在创建伟大的公司，但这些公司却毫无进展。

And I saw a very interesting pattern in India was that a lot of smart people were building great companies that wouldn't go nowhere.

我也看到一些不太聪明的人却持续取得巨大成功，他们是连续创业者。

And I saw some people who were not so smart who do really really well consistently and serial entrepreneurs.

我发现这是一个有趣的模式，我将其比作许多水坝建造者根本不知道河流在哪里。

And I found that as an interesting pattern that I refer to the analogy that I see a lot of dam builders with no idea where rivers exist.

我看到他们建造水坝，希望河流会自己出现，但河流从未出现。

So I see them building dams in hope that river will show up but river never shows up.

河流是存在的。

River exists.

每次他们发现‘河流不会流向我的水坝’时，他们不是把水坝移到河流旁，而是把水坝建得更奇怪、更酷，还加上人工智能之类的东西，但水依然不来。

Every time they discover that, hey, river is not coming to my dam, instead of moving the dam to river, they make the dams even more funkier and cooler and with AI and all of that stuff, but the water never comes.

我注意到有些人天生就能找到动机之河的流向。

And I saw that some people were natural at finding where the rivers of motivation were flowing.

即使那些普通的水坝在那里也能盈利，而这些花哨的水坝却从来没人使用。

And even the mediocre dams were making profits over there versus these fancy dams which nobody ever used.

这很像一种西方观念。

That's a very sort of like Western idea.

对吧？

Right?

你建好了，他们自然会来。

Build it and they will come.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为这永远不会发生。

It never happens, I think.

在西方市场建设是个好主意，因为那里河流众多，经济规模庞大，即使偶然有条河流从你身边流过，也能让你赚很多钱。

And and it's a great idea to build in Western markets where there are so many rivers and there is such a big economy that even some accidental river flowing through you will make a lot of money.

在印度，没有偶然的机遇。

In India, there are no accidental.

这就像是你在建造一片沙漠。

It's like you're building a desert.

对吧？

Right?

所以你必须确保自己是一片沙漠。

So you have to make sure you're a desert.

你必须精心建造河流、正确的水坝，放在正确的位置，因为这里没有源源不断的河流。

Like you have to really build the rivers the right dam to the right place because there is no unlimited rivers flowing.

没有人关注人类的动机，因为印度的整个教育体系都不教授人文学科。

Nobody was thinking about human motivation because all of our education system in India was not teaching humanities.

我偶然接触了人文学科，是因为哲学，但印度每一个科技创业者都拥有上百个独角兽企业。

I accidentally learned humanities because of philosophy, but every single tech founder in India has 100 unicorns.

我会进一步说，在这上百个独角兽企业中，我是唯一一个有人文背景的创始人。

I would go on to say that I'm the only founder in the 100 unicorns which has a humanities background.

其他所有人都是STEM背景。

Everybody else is STEM.

印度的另一点是，我们从未有过约会文化，因此也从未通过约会这种游戏了解过人类动机。

And and another thing in India is that we never had dating culture, so we never learned human motivation through the game of dating as well.

所以我们是非凡的建设者，但不知道为了什么而建设。

So we are extraordinary builders, but we don't know what to build for.

那么，现在有多少印度产品在西方被使用呢？

And therefore, how many Indian products are used in the West right now?

非常少。

Very few.

但有多少在印度开发、由美国产品经理打造的产品正在美国被使用呢？

But how many products are built in India which are used in The US, made by US product managers?

可能有成千上万之多。

Maybe hundreds and hundreds of thousands of them.

美国众多独角兽公司的联合创始人中有多少是印度人？

How many cofounders of many unicorns in The US are Indians?

可能有很多人。

Probably a lot of them.

这就是我发现印度人擅长的地方：他们非常擅长应对已存在的考试，而不是创造一个前所未有的考试。

And this is where I found this to be a thing that Indians were very good at cracking an exam that existed versus creating an exam that does not exist.

大家都知道印度人在婚礼上花很多钱。

Like everybody knows Indian spends a lot on weddings.

这是一件众所周知的事。

Like it's a known thing.

人们喜欢参加印度婚礼，而且他们不断听到这一点。

People love to go to the Indian weddings and they they keep hearing this.

我给你一个有趣的数据显示。

I'll give you an interesting data point.

我在我的办公室做了一些调查。

Like I I checked in my office.

大多数人花在婚礼上的钱接近他们年收入的六倍。

Most people spent close to six times their annual salary for their wedding.

哇。

Wow.

但竟然没有一家独角兽初创公司解决婚礼问题。

But zero unicorn startups solving wedding problems.

但这就是市场的可怕之处。

But that's the scary thing about the market.

我认识一位创办行李公司的创始人，他们生产行李箱。

I met a founder who runs a luggage company, a suitcases they build.

他们是上市公司之一，想让我加入他们的董事会。

They were one of the public listed companies and they wanted me to join their board.

我说，好吧。

And I'm like, okay.

我很乐意见面，但我不会加入传统企业的董事会，不过我很乐意聊聊。

I'm happy to meet, but I'm not joining a traditional business board, but I'm happy to have a conversation.

我只是建议他们应该在机场做一些品牌推广。

And and I was just giving them some suggestion they should do something branding on the airport.

他们说：‘库纳尔，你在说什么？’

And they're like, Kunal, what are you talking about?

我说：‘对啊，你们是卖行李箱的公司。’

I'm like, yeah, you are a suitcase company.

你们应该在机场出现。

You should be at the airports.

我哪里说得不对吗？

Like, what am I not saying correct over here?

他说：‘库纳尔，在印度，80%到83%的行李箱都是为婚礼买的。’

He's like, Kunal, 80 to 83% of all suitcases in India are bought for weddings.

新娘会带着新的行李箱嫁到新家庭。

The bride takes new suitcases and goes to the new family.

每年有440万场婚礼，平均每位新娘会带三到四个行李箱去新家。

There are 4,400,000 weddings that happen every year and on an average close to three to four suitcases move with her to the new house.

我对这些事情一无所知。

I have no clue about these things.

我认识另一位创始人，他正在打造一个有趣的生物黑客初创公司，有一种非治疗手段可以促进你体内线粒体的生长速度。

I met another founder who's building an interesting biohacking kind of a startup, and there's a non treatment which improves the mitochondria growth rate in your thing.

这是一种昂贵的治疗方式，通常用于癌症患者或糖尿病患者等人群。

It's expensive treatment, which is done usually for cancer patients or somebody with diabetic situation or whatever.

这个人去那里说，我想试试这个方法来做生物黑客实验。

And this guy goes there that I want to try this for bio biohacking.

对方说：‘你是来治癌症的？’

And the guy's like, oh, you're here for cancer?

他说：‘不是。’

He says, no.

你是来治糖尿病的吗？

Are you here for diabetes?

我说：‘不是。’

I was like, no.

第三个问题是：‘你是来因为要结婚的吗？’

The third question was, are you here for because it's your wedding.

他问：为什么婚礼在这里这么重要？

And he's like, why is wedding important over here?

因为这种治疗能让皮肤在六个月内变白。

Because that treatment makes your skin lighter for six months.

所以很多人为了婚礼的肤色改善，不惜花费昂贵的费用接受这种通常只用于癌症患者或严重糖尿病患者的治疗。

So a lot of people are doing that treatment, which is so expensive, usually done by cancer patient or severe diabetic patients, to improve the skin tone for their wedding.

这就是印度的有趣之处：大量经济活动都围绕着它展开，因为在印度，我们总是省吃俭用，但在婚礼、医疗和子女教育上却愿意大手笔花钱。

And that is the fascinating thing about India that so much of the economy is running through that because in India, we are saving every penny all the time, but we will splurge on weddings, we will splurge on medical events, we will splurge on education of our kids.

如今每个刚有新生儿的印度家庭，都会在子女教育上花费比他们父母当年多出100到200倍的钱，因为我们就是愿意在这些事情上花钱。

Every Indian family right now who have just got new kids are going to spend probably 100 to 200 times more than what their parents spent for their education because that's what we spend money on.

其他方面的消费却根本不存在。

The consumption is just not there.

所以当我研究这些模式时，我意识到印度的创业者们并不理解这些模式。

So I think when you study these patterns, what I realized is that these patterns were not understood by Indian founders.

他们只是在复制西方的产品。

They were just building Western copies.

因此，有一段时间，我注意到有十家初创公司获得了融资，它们都是做洗衣业务的，这些公司在纽约很流行。

And therefore, at one point of time, I saw there were 10 startups that were funded for doing laundry startups, which were popular in New York.

但在印度，我们家里有女佣。

But in India, we had maids coming at home.

我们为什么需要一家洗衣初创公司？

Why do we need a laundry start up?

但还是有十家公司获得了融资。

But there were 10 companies that got funded.

所以有那么多投资者毫不知情，也有那么多生活在印度的创始人完全不懂。

So there were so many investors who were clueless, so many founders who were living in India who are clueless.

因此，在那段时间，我开始构建一个框架。

So during that period, I started working on a framework.

我称之为‘Delta Four框架’，用于预测初创公司的成功，因为我的好奇心在于：为什么我能在没有这些家伙过去所展现的学术智慧十分之一的情况下，却能更频繁地取得成功？

I call it the Delta four framework on predicting startup success because my curiosity was that how am I able to be successful more often when I'm not even one tenth the academic smarts that some of these guys have demonstrated in the past, but why am I able to do it more successfully?

于是我构建了一个框架，而且由于我正处于两家初创公司之间，我有时间去阅读物理学、生物学、进化生物学和信任相关的知识。

So I built a framework and because I was between two startups, I had a time to read up on physics and biology and evolutionary biology and trust.

所以我到处奔波。

So I was going all over the place.

显然，我浏览了你的博客，并在脑海中整理了这些点。

Obviously, I was your blog and I'm all these dots in my head.

我发现初创企业的发展与生物进化非常相似，但没有人这样思考。

And I found that the evolution of startups was very similar to biological evolution and nobody was thinking like that.

所以我先给你提前看一下这个框架。

So I'll give you a sneak preview of that framework.

它更容易理解，但我来告诉你。

It's easier to understand, but I'll tell you.

例如，如果我问你，二十年前哪种产品或服务比现在更高效？

For example, if I asked you, frame that which product or service was more efficient twenty years ago than it is today?

如果我问你这个问题——二十年前哪种产品或服务比现在更高效——实际上根本找不到答案。

If you if I've asked you this question, which product or service was more efficient twenty years ago than it is today, it's really impossible to find an answer.

所有的效率都存在于未来。

All the efficiency exists in the future.

人类总是朝着效率更高的方向不断前进，就像时间之箭一样。

So humans are constantly moving from inefficiency to efficiency in one direction and like almost like arrow of time.

因此，任何将你从低效的状态a转变为高效的状态b的产品或服务，都会释放出一种被称为财富的东西。

And and therefore, any product or service that changes you from state a, which is inefficient, to state b should unlock something that is called as wealth.

所以我建立了一个简单的框架，听起来很简单，但大多数人仍然没有使用它。

So I I built a simple framework, which is sounds simple, but most people still don't use it.

假设我问你，你觉得使用Uber叫车的效率评分是多少，比如7分或8分，相比过去那种叫车方式（无论那是什么方式）呢？

Is let's say I asked you that what do you think is the efficiency score of booking a cab through Uber on 10 or versus the old method that existed of booking cabs, whatever that method was.

大多数人会说，Uber可能是7分、8分，而旧方式可能只有2分、1分或3分。

Most people would say maybe this is seven, eight on 10, that is maybe two on ten, one on ten, three on 10.

因此，这个框架非常简单：每当效率评分的差距大于或等于4时，就会发生三件事。

So the framework was very simple that every time the delta of efficiency score is greater than equal to four, three things happen.

这是一种不可逆的行为。

It's an irreversible behavior.

一旦你体验过某种产品或服务带来的效率差距，就再也回不去了。

Once you experience a delta for product or service, you cannot go back.

显然，人们的容忍度非常高。

There is obviously very, very high tolerance.

第二点是，你可能会讨厌Uber，但你不会想：‘该死，我要删掉这个应用，转而采用效率更低的方式。’

That's the second thing that you will hate Uber, but you're not going to like, damn it, I'm going to delete this app and I'm to move to a more inefficient behavior.

第三点是我所说的UBP，即独特且值得炫耀的主张。

The third thing is what I call the UBP, unique brag worthy proposition.

当人类发现效率差值达到四时，他们会忍不住到处炫耀。

Humans, when they discover something Delta four, they can't stop bragging about it everywhere.

这几乎像人类之间的一种秘密密码：每次你发现效率差值达到四，就会忍不住向所有人炫耀。

Almost like a secret code that all humans have with each other that every time you discover delta four, brag about it and tell everybody about it.

推动整个人类从状态A转向状态B，即更高效的状态，从而降低局部熵，推动人类走向更高效的媒介，以更少的能量、时间、金钱或财富实现进步。

And move the entire humanity from state A to state B which is more efficient which reduces their local entropy and moves them forward to a more efficient medium which burns less energy than any form time, money or wealth to move forward to more efficient methods.

我意识到，大多数初创公司都没有关注这一点。

And I realized that most startups were not looking at this.

我来给你一个简单的框架，帮你思考哪些情况不适用。

I'll give you a simple framework to think where it doesn't work.

我们来谈谈在线购买衬衫和线下购买的区别。

Let's talk about buying shirts online versus offline.

如果你面临的是特殊尺码等挑战，那这并不是delta four。

It's not delta four if you have, let's say, odd sizes and you have the challenge.

因此，衬衫并没有完全转向线上，因为仅仅添加技术并不足以成为delta four。

And therefore shirts have not moved completely online because just by adding tech, it doesn't become delta four.

对吧？

Right?

它必须提升目标行为的效率评分。

It has to improve the efficiency score of the desired behavior.

我认为这个框架，我在印度讲过。

And I think that framework, I talked about it in India.

有趣的是，美国的红杉资本告诉我，他们实际上已经把这个框架引入了红杉美国团队的分析师入职培训中，这很有趣，因为在印度，即使我讲过这个框架，初创公司仍然不应用它。

Funny enough, was told by Sequoia in The US, they've actually introduced this framework in the onboarding of analysts in the Sequoia US team, which was interesting because in India, even if I have spoken about this framework, still startups don't apply that.

我看到其中90%的公司一直在失败。

And I see 90% of them fail all the time.

回到在没有河流的地方建大坝的比喻。

Back to the analogy of building a dam where rivers don't exist.

而河流不过是动机而已，对吧？

And rivers are nothing but motivations, right?

从根本上说，我们人类都有相同的核心动机。

Like at the core of it, we all humans have the same core motivations.

然后这些动机像溪流一样不断衍生出更多的河流，对吧？

And then it goes into streams and creates more rivers from that stream constantly, right?

但归根结底，它们都是同一件事。

But at the core of it, it's the same thing.

你希望提升自己的社会地位。

You want to increase your social status.

你希望提高自己的择偶成功率。

You want to improve your mating success.

你希望为后代取得成功，如此等等。

You want to have success for your progeny and so on and so forth.

这一切最终都归结为同样的动机，然后你可以将它们转化为无数条流淌的河流。

It all boils down to the same motivation things and then you can put them into so many different rivers that flow.

当我开始创办我的第二家公司时，我意识到如何让事情更成功，同时也关注更高层次的动机类别等等。

So when I started building my second company, I realized how to make things more successful, also look at more high motivation categories, and so on and so forth.

我有幸能更全面地看待这个问题，告诉我的投资者，我正在打造一家只专注于印度前2500万客户的初创公司，因为只有他们才懂得时间的价值，愿意消费；与其试图获取数亿无法盈利的客户——他们连吃饭的钱都勉强凑得出来——不如集中精力服务这少数群体。

I had the luxury to take the continent better and say that I told my investors that I'm building a startup that will only focus on the top 25,000,000 customers of India because only they can value time or will buy and rather focus on them versus acquiring hundreds of millions of customers which cannot be monetized because they can barely have money to even eat.

如今，我们仍是一个贫穷的国家。

Right now, we are a poor nation.

这是一个有争议的观点，因为印度总是被描绘成拥有数亿客户的梦想市场，就像中国那样。

And it's a controversial idea because India is always this country which sold this dream of hundreds of millions of customers like China.

但印度和中国之间除了人口数量之外，几乎没有共同点。

But nothing between India and China is common except our population.

这种相似性到此为止。

That's where the similarity ends.

但全球公司热衷于赢得印度市场，因为他们在China输了。

But global companies love to win India because they lost on China.

所以，如果他们再次失去印度，公开市场会抨击他们。

So public markets will bash them if they lose India again.

因此，许多公司来到印度是为了赢得这场圣战，但市场还不够大。

So a lot of them are in India to win the holy war, but the market is not big enough.

我认为亚马逊在印度的总GMV，可能只需要一个欧洲小国在这里经营七八年就能轻松实现，因为真正有能力消费的人根本不存在。

I would say the total GMV that Amazon would make in India would easily be done by a small European nation after being here for, like, maybe seven, eight years that they have spent over here because the people who can spend just do not exist.

我认为这正是我们专注于为顶尖人群打造创业项目的原因。

And I think that was the genesis of focusing on startup to build for the top more thing.

我们说的是，我们将专注于这些客户，因为没有人真正为他们做产品，所有人都在为一个根本不存在的最低共同标准努力。

What we said is that we'll focus on those customers because nobody is really building for them because everybody is building for this lowest common denominator that does not exist.

我会专注于这些客户。

And I will focus on these customers.

我们还表示，将专注于更值得信赖的个人，以提升系统的信任度。

And we said that we will focus on more trustworthy individuals to increase the trust of the system.

我们说，对于这群人，我举个小例子。

We said that for these group of people I'll give you a small example.

即使你在印度属于最富裕的前0.01%，你的护照在全球的排名也可能只有第150位左右。

India, even if you are in the top 0.01% of affluence, your passport is ranked maybe one fifty in the world.

因此，你很难获得任何国家的签证，因为你无法证明自己的独特性。

And therefore, every country is extremely hard for you to get a visa to because there's no way for you to differentiate yourself.

这与印度数字领域中许多服务所采取的做法非常相似。

This is very similar to a lot of stuff that is done digitally in India for any service you encounter.

我们表示，将通过为他们提供一种身份，让他们的生活至少变得更顺畅一些，从而改善他们的处境。

And we said we will make their life better by allowing them to have an identity that at least makes their life slightly more frictionless.

这听起来像是一个有争议的想法——你试图消灭一种更注重摩擦的社会。

Now this sounds like a controversial idea that, hey, you're trying to kill a society which is like more friction.

但事实是，这正是资本主义的本质。

But the thing is that that's what capitalism is.

我举个小例子。

I'll give you a small example.

印度有一个独特的概念，叫做‘最高零售价’。

India has this unique concept called MRP.

我不知道你是否知道，但这边这瓶水上写着，它的最高零售价是10卢比。

I don't know if you know about this, but this bottle over here, it says that maximum retail price of this bottle is 10 rupees.

即使是在极其富裕的社区还是最贫穷的社区，价格都是10卢比，因为政府认为这是有史以来最棒的主意——让每个人的价格都一样。

And even if it's sold in extremely affluent neighborhood or the most poor neighborhood, the price is 10 rupees because the government thought this is the greatest idea ever that we'll have the same price for everybody.

但我本可以轻松为这瓶水支付30卢比，而其他人可能只愿付5卢比，这样反而能整体扩大市场。

But I could easily pay 30 rupees for that, and somebody else could pay 5 rupees for that and increase the market overall.

但我们强制执行了这种人为的最高零售价概念，阻碍了自由市场和资本主义的核心原则发展。

But we enforce an artificial concept of MRP, which is stopping the the core tenets of free market and capitalism to grow.

在印度，这种现象非常独特，你总会遇到这样的情况：哦，我要买这个东西。

And it's a very unique thing about India where you come with these things that, oh, I'm going to have this.

7-11会卖30卢比，这家卖5卢比，开市客则卖另一个价格。

The seven Eleven will charge 30 rupees and this one will charge 5 rupees and the Costco will charge this.

猜猜怎么样？

Guess what?

它们都必须卖同样的价格。

All of them have to charge the same price.

我认为我意识到，唯一能够实现差异化的途径是通过服务，而这一切就是为他们建立一个独立的层级。

And I think I realized that the only way you can differentiate is by service and all of that is just create a separate layer to build for them.

而这正是第二家初创公司的起源。

And and and that was the genesis of the second startup.

我之所以创办初创公司，也是因为我意识到，尽管我作为投资者表现不错，而且作为兼职投资也依然做得不错，但我实在太热爱建设了。

The reason I also did a startup is also because I realized that I while I was doing well as an investor and I'm still doing decently well in my investments as a part time gig, I love building way too much.

我想我从十四、十五岁就开始工作了。

And I think I have been working since I was fourteen, fifteen.

我不知道该如何过一种不紧张的生活。

I do not know how to live a non intense life.

虽然我能预测模式、洞察事物，从技术上讲，通过投资可以更好地提升我时间的投资回报率。

While I can predict patterns and see things and I could technically generate better ROI of my time through investing.

但通过亲手创建公司所获得的快乐，远远超过了仅仅预测未来趋势并频繁准确所带来的回报，后者虽然能带来最高时间回报率。

But the joy I unlock by building is coming much higher by building my own companies versus just predicting and being right a lot in predicting future trends which can generate the highest ROI of time.

但它无法带来任何快乐。

It doesn't generate any joy.

所以我从投资中找不到任何乐趣。

So I found no joy in investing.

就是那种：‘我早就告诉过你了。’

It's just like, oh, I told you so.

我没错，我还是没错。

I was right and I was right.

猜怎么着？

And guess what?

因为你总是对的，这变得很无聊。

It gets boring because you're right.

在这个市场里，当你能预测Delta四框架并运用你学到的所有人类洞察时，你比别人更正确根本算不上什么了不起的事。

In the market like this, when you can predict Delta four frameworks and you can apply all the human insights you've learned, it's not a big deal that you've for you to be more right.

问题是，我感到非常空虚。

The problem is I felt really empty.

我想回到那些关于Delta四的人类框架上。

I wanna go back to some of those human frameworks in Delta four.

当你做出投资决策时，你主要从哪些角度来思考这个问题？

When you're making an investment decision, what are the top lenses that you're thinking that through?

其中一个就是我们之前讨论过的Delta四框架。

So one was sort of the Delta four framework, which we talked about.

你在思考时还会考虑哪些人类行为框架？

What are the human frameworks that you're you're thinking about that?

哪些视角能为你的筛选系统带来最大的价值？

What are the lenses that add the most value to your sort of filtering system?

嗯。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这更多是一种激励性的视角，但将人类动机作为核心循环来应用。

I mean, it was more of a motivational lens, but applying human motivation as a core loop.

但还有一些其他因素能帮助我们更容易地识别初创企业的成功潜力。

But there are other things that make it easy to detect start up success.

例如，很多向我路演的创始人通常都准备充分，会做演示并主动来找我。

For example, a lot of founders who pitch to me are usually well prepared and make a presentation and come to me.

所以我告诉他们，嘿。

And so I tell them that, hey.

我对英语不太懂。

I don't understand English very well.

你能用印地语给我解释一下吗？

Can you explain this to me in Hindi?

这是做什么的？

What does it do?

真正理解自己在做什么的创始人可以毫无障碍地切换语言，因为他们真的懂。

Founders who really get what they're doing can switch language without a problem because they really get it.

语言对他们来说不会改变任何东西。

And language doesn't change anything for them.

很多只是准备了演示文稿但并没有真正清楚理解的人，在语言切换时会感到困难，他们的演讲也会乱套。

Many people who have just prepared their presentation and not really understand this very clearly, they struggle with the language change and their their pitch goes for a toss.

等等。

So so hold on.

一种方法是，我想就此补充一点反馈，因为你可以不切换语言，而是调整对话的层次。

One way to I I just wanna add feedback on this because, like, one way that you can do this without switching languages is switch level of the conversation.

人们通常在某个层次上准备内容，然后你可以问：你能更深入一点吗？或者你能讲得更高层次一点吗？同时保持上下文一致？

So often people prepare at one level and it's like, oh, can you go deeper or can you go higher level and keep that in context?

这其实和同一个想法类似。

Which is sort of like the same idea.

我见过一些非常擅长的人，你换语言、换媒介，告诉他们‘我不想看你的演示文稿’，他们依然能应对自如。

I've seen that people who are really good, you change language, change medium, you tell them I don't want to read your presentation, they'll still be okay.

有些人告诉他们‘我不会看你的PPT’，他们却会问：那我该怎么向你解释呢？

Some people tell them I can't I'm not going look at your PPT and they'll be like how do I explain this to you?

另一个对我有效的框架是，我会告诉他们：我完全听不懂你在说什么。

The other framework that has worked for me is I tell them, I don't understand anything what you're saying.

想象一下，我是这个产品的用户，我会在晚餐时向朋友推荐这个产品。

Imagine I'm a user of this product and I would tell a friend over dinner to try this.

我会怎么说？

What do I say?

唯一的规则是，我不能使用任何行话，因为我跟朋友聊天从不用行话。

Only rule, I cannot use any jargon because I don't speak to my friends in jargon.

所以告诉我，我会怎么说。

So tell me what do I say.

我会让他们休息十分钟后再告诉我答案。

And I tell them to take ten minutes break before telling me the answer.

我认为90%的创始人都会在这里失败，因为他们无法将这个信息提炼成朋友之间简单易懂的传递内容。

I would say 90 of founders fail at this because they can't really distill it to that simple transmissible message from a friend to friend.

如果你无法将你的想法简化为一顿晚餐时朋友间能轻松交流的内容，它就不会传播开来；而那些不传播的东西，获客成本会极高，因为根本没人明白你到底在做什么。

If you cannot distill your idea to a transmissible conversation at dinner, it's not going to spread And things that don't spread will have a huge CAC because nobody really understands what the hell are you doing.

这是一个对我有效的框架。

That's one framework that has worked.

另一个方法是问他们：人们使用它的真正动机是什么？

The other one is asking them what is the real motivation people will use it.

很多时候，人们真正的动机和他们声称的动机并不一致。

A lot of times the real motivation is different than what people say is the real motivation.

比如购买昂贵的耳机。

For example buying expensive headphones.

它们并不是真的为了让你听得更好。

They are not really to make you hear better.

你想要向世界传递一个信号：你富有，有地位，有品位。

You want to signal to the world that you are affluent and you have good status and good taste.

大多数创始人无法提炼出人们购买它的真正原因。

Most founders cannot distill that that is the real reason people will buy it.

他们只会关注产品的功能用途，而忽视了情感价值。

They'll keep going to the functional utility and not the emotional benefit of the product.

这是我见过的优秀创始人始终清楚的一点：他们知道自己的产品或服务的功能价值和情感价值。

And that's another framework I've seen that good founders always know functional and the emotional benefit of their product or service.

市场规模。

Market sizing.

大多数创始人无法想象，如何从这里起步，逐步发展成一个庞大的事业。

Most founders cannot imagine how will this start from here and go on to build a very large thing from here.

他们卡在了‘这就是我做的’这个想法上，却无法想象这如何能发展成一家大公司。

They they get stuck in this is what I do but they can't imagine how will this become a large company ever.

他们根本不去思考，甚至都不去思考，直接否定了自己的想法。

They just don't think, they don't even think, even they cancel their own idea.

而我见过相反类型，我称之为‘瑞士军刀问题’。

And I have seen the opposite type which is I call the Swiss knife problem.

他们认为必须打造一把瑞士军刀，而消费者实际上只需要一把刀，因为他们热爱构建。

They believe that they have to build a Swiss knife when the consumer only is looking for a knife because they love building.

所以很多这类人通常有工程背景。

So a lot of them are usually with engineering background.

他们热爱构建，写了大量软件，导致消费者在和他们交流时感到困惑，因为他们没有采取‘先切入一个简单入口’的策略，比如先卖一把刀，再慢慢变成他们生活中的瑞士军刀。

Love to build they write so much software that consumers are confused when they talk to them because don't have a foot in the door strategy that, okay, let me sell a knife and then eventually become a Swiss knife in their life.

他们一开始就想着做瑞士军刀，你会想：等等。

They start with the idea of Swiss knife and you're like, hold on.

我根本搞不懂你们在做什么。

I can't even process what you guys are doing.

瑞士军刀变得很酷。

And Swiss knife becomes cool.

但没人用它。

Nobody uses it.

每个人似乎都有把瑞士军刀，却从不使用。

Everybody seems to have a Swiss knife but never being used.

所以我认为这是我见过的另一种模式。

So I think that's another pattern I've seen.

我从未从人类需求的角度思考过这个问题，但另一点是：为什么有人会为这个付费？令人惊讶的是，大多数人并不明白，根本没人愿意为此买单。

I've never really thought about this from a human framework problem but another thing is that why would somebody pay for this and it's surprising how most people do not understand that nobody is going to pay for that.

你爸爸会为这个付费吗？

Like will your dad pay for this?

你妈妈会为这个付费吗？

Will your mom pay for this?

你的首席财务官会为这个付费吗？

Will your CFO pay for this?

你的孩子会为此付费吗？

Will your kid pay for this?

他们根本就对此不感兴趣。

Like they are just off on that.

最后一点是，他们是否拥有某种不明显但当你听到他们谈论时会觉得‘嗯，有道理’的洞察？

The last one is do they have an insight that is not obvious but when you see them talk about you're like, uh-huh that makes sense.

你能再深入讲讲吗？

Can you go deeper on that?

最小微妙且可操作的洞察。

The smallest unit of insight that's actionable.

最小微妙且可操作的真相。

Smallest unit of truth that is actionable.

真相。

Truth.

可操作的真相。

Truth that's actionable.

嗯。

Yeah.

再深入讲讲这一点。

Go deeper on that for a second.

如果你研究古印度神话和梵文经典，你会发现梵语是一种非常精炼的语言。

If you go to ancient Hindu mythology and and you study the Sanskrit scripts and Sanskrit is a very condensed language.

对吧？

Right?

因为梵语是在纸张发明之前就创造出来的。

Because it was invented before paper was invented.

所以知识是通过记忆在人与人之间传递的。

So knowledge was transmitted from human to human through memory.

因此，他们必须将智慧浓缩成尽可能小的单位，以便记忆和在人与人之间传递。

So they had to distill the wisdom in the smallest unit possible that could be memorized and transmitted from human to human.

最早的经文也非常精炼。

And the earliest scriptures were also tight.

比如，你在阅读梵文的瑜伽经时，一行字就能浓缩大量的智慧。

Like, you'll you'll read in Sanskrit yoga line and like, in one line, they'll condense, like, really a lot of wisdom in it.

所以我认为，把事物提炼到其核心单元，不能再分割，这种单元就成为强大的基础单位，也就是我们所说的第一性原理，可以帮助构建企业。

So I think the concept of boiling something to the core units of it, then you cannot divide it further, becomes a powerful unit that is also the building blocks or what we call as first principles that can help build businesses.

对吧？

Right?

而且我认为，很多时候，这个过程是痛苦的。

And I think a lot of times, it's a painful process.

追求真理是痛苦的。

Seeking truth is painful.

谢恩，你已经这样做了很久了。

Shane, you've been doing this for a while.

还要写多少篇博客才能接近真理？

Like, how many more blogs will it take to get close to the truth?

你可能永远找不到真理，但为了追求真理本身而追求的快乐并不自然，因此很多人并不足够欣赏这一点。

You will probably not find it but the joy of seeking truth for the sake of it is not natural and therefore a lot of people do not appreciate it enough.

但这些洞察力成为了构建卓越企业、实现巨大成功的良好基石，因为这种洞察并不常见。

But insights become this nice building block through which you can create great businesses, unlock great success because that is something that is not commonly available.

每个人似乎都看到了某种模式，但你却看到了不同的东西。

Everybody seems to be seeing some pattern but you see something else.

例如，我一直认为印度人比西方社会更在意地位。

For example, I had this view that oh India cares about status so much more than the western society.

让我做一个思想实验。

Let me do one thought experiment.

我联系了一位曾经在印度一家顶级零售连锁店担任采购员的朋友。

I reached out to my friend who used to be a buyer of a top retail chain in India.

我请她核实一下，客厅销售的所有产品的毛利率是否远高于卧室销售的所有产品的毛利率。

I asked her to check, can you check if the gross margin on all products sold for living room is lot more than the gross margin on all products sold for the bedroom.

从来没有人像这样在零售业分析过数据。

And nobody had ever analyzed data like that in retail ever.

因为这涉及到厨房、沙发、家具等等所有东西。

Because it's like kitchen and sofa and furniture and all of that.

没有人把客厅和卧室视为两个独立的概念。

Nobody thought living room and bedroom as two separate concepts.

但我问：你能请人分析一下吗？

But I said, can you please make somebody crunch it?

结果发现，毛利率高出三倍。

And turns out the gross margin was 3x more.

原因是，在我们的社会中，我们更在意向他人展示。

The reason is, in our society, we care more about showing to others.

因此，所有体现身份地位的产品都被摆放在客厅。

So all the products which are showing demonstrating status were put in the living room.

在印度，我们的卧室都很糟糕，因为根本没人去那里。

Our bedrooms are terrible in India because nobody comes to them.

因此，床单在印度卖得不贵，浴室用品也卖得不多，这并不令人意外。

And and therefore, it was not surprising that bed sheets were not bought expensive in India and bathroom products did not sell a lot.

印度的浴缸很少，因为这并不是关于‘我’的。

We don't have a lot of bathtubs in India because it's not about me.

这关乎向来我客厅的人展示社会地位，因此你现在可以应用这一洞察，我将这个洞察告诉了一家家装公司。

It's about showing social status to others who come to my living room and therefore you apply that insight now and I told this insight to home renovation company.

我告诉他们，别再总说家装了。

I told them don't keep saying home renovation.

推出一个名为‘客厅翻新’的产品线。

Launch a product line which is living room renovation.

如今，他们80%的收入都来自客厅翻新，因为这就是洞察，也是你能触动人们的动机按钮。

And today, 80% of that revenue for them is living room renovation because that's the insight and that's the motivation button that you can press in people.

嗯，在西方世界，这关乎善待自己。

Well well, I think in the in the Western world, it's about treating yourself.

这关乎你值得拥有更好的东西。

It's about you're worth it.

我们仍然有地位的考量。

It's about we still have the status thing.

个人主义与集体主义，这正是亚洲社会的特点。

Individualism versus collectivism, which is how Asian societies are.

因此，你并不配拥有特别的东西，但你必须展示出来。

And therefore, you don't deserve things to be special, but you have to show it.

因此，婚礼规模庞大，利润率极高。

And therefore weddings are really big and very high gross margin.

这是为了给别人看的。

It's for others.

让我们回到之前稍微提到过的话题，我想更详细地探讨一下，你提到一些超越文化的深层人类动机。

So let's go back to the we talked about this a little bit earlier, but I want to go into more detail on, you mentioned some of the core human motivations that transcend culture.

人类的核心目标是不断改善自己的社会地位，以提升自己的择偶成功率或后代的成功几率。

The core human game is to constantly improve our social status so that we improve our mating success or our success of our progeny.

回答这个问题最简单的方式是：如果我们真的能制造出定制婴儿，人们是否会把大部分收入花在这上面？

The easiest way to answer this question is that if we could really create designer babies would people spend most of their income on that or not.

我们暂且不讨论定制婴儿是好是坏的伦理争议。

And let's not go into ethical debate of is designer babies a good thing or not.

如果真的可以调整他们的智商、外貌、健康状况，降低患绝症的概率，所有这些都可能实现——或者换种说法，假设我真的能发明一种药丸，让你变得更年轻、更健康。

If it was possible that you can tweak their IQ, their looks, their health, their chances of terminal diseases to be lower and all of that or let me put it this way let's say I could really invent a pill that can make you younger or healthier.

你不会愿意把一半的净资产给我吗？

Wouldn't you give me 50% of your net worth?

我认为这就是核心动机所在。

And I think that's where the core motivations are.

你会愿意用一半的净资产换取什么？

Like what would you give half of your net worth for?

这些才是人类的核心动机。

Those are the core human motivations.

它们在不同社会中不会改变。

And they don't change from society to society.

它们始终保持不变。

They remain the same.

它们只是表现形式不同。

They manifest differently.

例如，亚洲社会认识到教育至高无上，因此会不成比例地为此投入资源。

For example, the Asian societies unlock that, oh, education is everything, so they they disproportionately optimize for that.

但他们却省下每一分钱。

But they don't they save pennies.

就像你所说的，你的父母为了省几美分会走很远的路。

Like you said, like your parents talked about traveling miles for saving cents.

也许他们也是那些愿意在你的教育上多花钱的父母。

Maybe they were also the parents who would be okay to spend more on your education.

如果你告诉他们，这会贵两倍，他们可能会咬牙承受，把钱给你。

And if you told them I'm gonna cost it's gonna cost two x more, they would probably suffer and give you that money.

但他们自己却不会多买一件衬衫。

But they would not buy an extra shirt for themselves.

这些才是有趣的动机。

Those are the interesting motivations.

所以在亚洲社会，我们把孩子当作资产。

So in Asian societies, we treat our kids like assets.

所以我们对他们进行投资，因为很多时候我们期望孩子将来能照顾我们的家庭。

So we are making investments on them because a lot of times we expect the kids to take care of our families.

所以我不知道你是否知道，印度是向印度汇款最多的国家。

So I don't know if you know about it but India is the largest market which sends money back to India.

在所有进行汇款的国家中，印度人汇回给家里的钱比墨西哥等国家都要多。

Amongst all markets that does remittance, Indians remit the highest amount of money back to their family than when it comes to Mexico and others.

这表明孩子们是被当作资产来养育的。

And that's the sign that the kids were raised as assets.

你投资于他们，是希望当他们功成名就时，能把钱回报给家庭，并在我们年老时照顾我们。

You invested in them in hopes that when you make it back big, you will give it back to the family and take care of us in our later life.

因此，在这些社会中，孩子被视为资产，而不是‘你现在要自己独立了’。

So kids in these societies are treated like assets versus, oh, you're on your own now.

这在我们的文化中并不存在，因为他们会告诉你：我为你投入了这么多钱，是希望你将来能照顾我。

That is not in our culture because they will tell you that I invested so much money in hopes that you will take care of me later on.

因此，亚洲社会中存在着一种完整的社会结构或社会契约，即照顾父母，甚至在你没有义务这么做时，人们也会一直照顾他们，直到去世。

So there's a whole societal structure or or social contract that exists in Asian societies of taking care of parents and taking care of them even after you don't have any obligation to do that, but people do it till they die and really take care of them.

亚洲人有时甚至毫不犹豫地拿出50%甚至100%的积蓄来照顾父母，这对许多西方人来说是难以想象的。

Asians will not even flinch one bit to sometimes even wipe out 50% or 100% of the network to take care of their parents, which is hard to imagine concept for many people in the West.

是的，我认为确实是这样。

Yeah, I think that is.

你提到马斯洛需求层次理论是不同的。

You mentioned Maslow's hierarchy of needs was different.

你能稍微详细解释一下美国和印度之间的区别吗？

Can you elaborate on that a little bit between The US and India?

是的，我实际上去搜索了一下，发现确实存在一个所谓的亚洲版马斯洛模型。

Yeah, so I actually Googled, I found there there be a separate Asian Maslow.

但事实上，这个概念是存在的。

But in fact, there is a concept.

有人提出了亚洲版马斯洛模型，并画出了一张非常不同的图表。

Somebody's proposing Asian Maslow and they have drawn a very different chart.

但这张图表的一个有趣之处在于，它关注的是地位、归属感和在社群中的尊重。

But one of the interesting things about the chart was it's all about status, belonging, respect, and in the community.

而不是自我实现以及那种个人通往觉悟的道路。

It's not about self actualization and having that kind of individual path to enlightenment.

这全都关乎归属感、尊重、地位等等。

It's all about affiliation, respect, status and that.

因此在印度，你经常看到人们不断渴望地位，并且非常重视这些。

And therefore you see that a lot in India that people are constantly craving status and appreciate that a lot more.

这些社会有那么多奖项和类似的东西，面子非常重要，回馈社会、在社区中获得认可等等。

These societies have so many awards and so many of these things and face matters a lot and giving back and being valued in the community and so on and so forth.

你不会看到这种行为；比如我有一辆两轮摩托车代步，而那些有一定财富的人如果这样做，通常会被认为是怪异或古怪的。

Will not see and therefore a funny story like I have a two wheeler scooter that I move around with and people with some affluence doing this kind of behavior are mostly considered to be weird or eccentric.

我看不到拥有奢侈品有什么乐趣。

I don't see any joy in having fancy things.

我只不过为自己买了一辆车用于长途出行，但我仍然一直使用我的摩托车。

I I I just managed to get a car for myself for long distances, but I still use my scooter all the time.

对大多数人来说，这很荒谬，因为你不遵循亚洲版的马斯洛需求——你必须拥有一辆豪华车，可以买好多辆车，为什么你不给自己买一栋豪宅，为什么你还住在出租公寓里？这简直荒谬到他们甚至怀疑我是不是真的富有。

And for most people, this is absurd because I'm not following the Asian Maslow that you have to get a luxury car and you can get so many more cars and why aren't you having this fancy house for yourself and why are you staying in a rented apartment like it's just absurd to the point that they want to believe that maybe I'm not really affluent.

这些选择对他们来说完全无法理解。

These choices just don't make sense to them.

对吧？

Right?

我不是说西方的做法就不同，但对人们来说，西方的这种现象要多得多。

So and I'm not saying that the West does these differently but it is lot more for the people.

即使是富裕家庭，客厅也远比卧室重要。

It's a lot more living room than bedroom even in the affluent households.

对吧？

Right?

因此，我认为你会看到人们在婚礼上投入了惊人的精力和金钱。

And I think, therefore, you see extraordinary effort and money spent on weddings.

花掉你年收入的五倍甚至十倍来举办一场两天的活动，而且只是请那些你几乎都不认识的人，这实在说不通。

It doesn't make sense that you, I don't know, spend 5 x or 10 x of your annual salary on two days event and just splurge it on people who you mostly don't even know.

所以，当你参加婚礼时，这种现象也就不足为奇了。

And therefore, like, it's not surprising when you go to weddings.

会有成千上万的人来参加一场婚礼。

There are thousands of people who come for a wedding.

你怎么可能认识他们呢？

How can you know them?

但这都是为了向他们展示我已经在人生中成功了。

But it's all about demonstrating to them that I've made it in life.

这就是亚洲的大众潮流。

And that's the Asian mass flow.

因此，初创公司的河流与现有的河流不同，所以很少有SaaS公司能实现数百万美元的收入，但我知道一些婚礼摄影师，他们的收入超过了1000万美元。

Therefore the startups, the rivers are different versus the rivers that exist and therefore very few SaaS companies making millions of dollars of revenue but there are enough wedding photographers I know who make more than $10,000,000 of revenue.

哦，天哪。

Oh, wow.

我想稍微换个话题，聊聊你多年来说过的一些话，想更深入地了解一下。

I wanna switch gears a little bit to some of the stuff that you've said over the years, wanna and get more of an elongated take on it.

这些都是浓缩的洞见。

They're they're concentrated doses of insight.

我不知道你能不能就这些观点随意发挥一下？

And I'm wondering maybe if you can just riff on them a little bit.

你最近说过的一件事是，你的朋友圈会影响你复利的速度。

So one of the things that you've said recently is that your group friends impacts how fast you compound.

洞见通常来自于随机的点被连接起来。

So insights are usually connected from random dots getting connected.

对吧？

Right?

但要让连接点的过程更高效，收集点的过程就必须高效。

But the process of collecting dots has to be efficient for the process of connecting dots to be more efficient.

如果你的朋友也在收集点以连接点，那么收集点就会更容易。

Collecting dots is easier if your friends are also collecting dots to connect dots.

所以，当你身边有很多来自生活不同领域、不断收集点的人时，复利自然会更有效。

So what happens is that compounding naturally works better when you have a lot of people from different domains of life who are constantly collecting dots.

例如，我会花很多时间与来自不同领域的人交流，看看这些观点是如何连接的。

For example, I spend a lot of time with a lot of different people from different fields to see how these words connect.

例如，我有时会与网红、单口喜剧演员、音乐导演，或完全不同的领域的创业者交谈，因为当你提炼洞见时，事物就会相互连接。

For example, I will sometimes speak to an influencer, to a stand up comedian, to a music director, or to an entrepreneur in a completely different space because when you distill insight, things connect.

在表面看来，它们看起来是截然不同的生意。

On the surface level, they look like very, very different businesses.

对吧？

Right?

例如，我无法告诉你教育和赌博行业在本质上有多么相似，为什么人们会那样做，为什么毛利率看起来很高，为什么奢侈品业务和教育业务相似，因为本质上，这些原则是相同的。

For example, I can't tell you how similar education and gambling businesses are at the crux of it and why people do what they do and why the gross margins seem to be high and why luxury goods businesses is similar to education businesses because the crux of it, the principles are remaining the same.

只有当你深入探究这些事情并提出问题时，它们才会连接起来。

And only when you ask and go deeper into some of these things, they connect.

我观察到一种模式，即这些行业的人们彼此之间不交流。

I've seen a pattern where people from these industries don't talk to each other.

通常，奢侈品行业的人只会和其他奢侈品行业的人交流。

Usually, luxury guys are talking to other luxury guys and other luxury guys.

我的意思是，我之所以羡慕你，是因为你打造了最高效的信息连接机器。

Like, look at I mean, the reason I'm envious of you because you have, like, made the most efficient machine of connecting dots.

你和来自如此多元背景的人交流，你头脑中从不同事物中连接起来的信息量，真是让我非常羡慕。

Like, you are talking to people from such diverse backgrounds, and the amount of things that are connecting in your head from different things is, like something I really envy.