你大约有24个月的时间来学习这些技能

这个月感觉发生了一次巨大的转变，我知道每个人都说一切都在变化，过去三四年里，随着人工智能等各种技术的发展，确实一直在变。

It feels like there's been a big shift this month, and I know that everyone talks about how everything is changing, and they have been for the past three or four years with AI and everything.

而大多数人甚至开始对这些言论充耳不闻。

And most people even started to just tune that out.

对吧？

Right?

我们达到了一个阶段，对所有这些人工智能的东西，我们已经变得麻木，不再相信那些炒作。

We reached a point where all of this AI stuff, we kind of just became numb to it, and we didn't believe the hype anymore.

但最近真的感觉有什么东西发生了变化。

But it really feels like something changed very recently.

我不是那种喜欢夸大其词或说这种话的人。

And I'm not the type of person that likes to be sensationalist or say this stuff.

我是第一个指出这一点的人。

I'm the first person to call this out.

所以当我这样说的时候，你知道，这可能是真的，也可能只是我昏了头，但我们就来聊聊这个。

So when I'm saying stuff like this, you know, it's kind of real or maybe I'm just deluded, but we're here to talk about it.

之所以感觉如此，是因为这些工具变得越来越好，而人们却越来越愤怒。

The reason it feels this way, it's because the tools have been getting better and better and people have become angrier and angrier.

最后，那些一直在寻找AI有用应用场景的人。

And last, the people who have been trying to find useful applications for A.

I。

I.

终于开始在自己的生活中发现它们，并且开始领先于其他人。

Are finally starting to find it in their own lives, and they're starting to pull ahead of everyone else.

每一天我上Twitter，都会看到这位叫罗伯特的人发这样的帖子。

And there hasn't been a day where I go on Twitter and see a post like this from this guy's just Robert.

这是我找到的一条。

This is one that I found.

它说：AI的反弹来了。

It says the AI backlash is here.

这条帖子有数百万次浏览，有人表示他们的非主流观点是：他们实际上并不希望技术再进一步发展。

This post has millions of views of someone saying that their unpopular opinion is that they actually do not desire to see technology advance any further.

人们讨厌技术。

People hate technology.

他们讨厌创新。

They hate innovation.

他们看到技术正在威胁他们的工作，威胁他们的生活方式。

They see that it is coming for their jobs, coming for their way of life.

创新要求他们做更多的工作，牺牲夜晚和周末去学习人工智能，而最终却可能取代他们自己。

Innovation is asking them to do more work, to spend nights and weekends learning about AI, and then it goes on just to potentially replace themselves.

但这只是少数例子中的一个。

But that's just one of the few examples.

我的信息流里简直充斥着这类内容。

My feed is literally flooded with it.

我正在制作另一个视频，题为《为什么艺术家如此讨厌AI》，来深入探讨所有这些论点。

I'm actually creating another video on that called why artists hate AI so much to go through all of the arguments.

但每当我们的做事方式发生转变时，这种模式往往会浮现出来。

But whenever there is a shift in how we do things, this pattern tends to emerge in.

这种模式表现为三类不同的人。

The pattern is that there's three different types of people.

第一类是抵制者，他们将自己的身份认同与过去做事的方式绑定在一起。

The first are the resistors, and these are the people who attach their identity to the way that things used to be done.

他们将技能视为自我的一部分，比如他们的艺术、做事的方式，或当前生活中认为有意义的事物，却没意识到意义也可以从其他事物中产生。

They attach to the skill like their art or how they like to do things or the things that they find meaningful in their life right now when they don't realize that meaning can be generated from different things.

我们将在另一个视频中讨论这一点。

We're also going to talk about that in another video.

抵制者将任何新工具视为对他们自我认同的威胁，比如那些大喊使用AI的人都是坏人的艺术家，或者像我这样的作家声称好的写作无法被AI复制，当然还有那些一边愤怒发帖哀叹创造力的死亡，一边拒绝学习新工具如何运作的创意人士。

The resistors see any new tool as a threat to their sense of self, like the artists that are screaming that anyone who uses AI is a bad person or the writers, like myself, saying that good writing can't be replicated by AI, and of course, the creatives that are rage posting about the death of creativity while refusing to learn how the new tools work.

如果你能避开这些人，避免陷入他们的陷阱。

Now, if you can avoid these people and avoid getting caught in their trap.

如果你本身就是其中之一，请保持开放的心态。

And if you are one of them, just please keep an open mind.

第二类人是观望者。

Now, the second type of people are the waiters.

这些人看到变化正在发生，但只是等待它自行过去。

So these people see that the change is happening, but they just wait for it to blow over.

他们一生中大部分时间都低着头，因为他们依赖于工作、雇主、人生方向以及生存能力。

They keep their heads down for most of their life because they are dependent on the job, the employer, the life direction and their ability to survive.

他们不知道其他做事的方式，也没有能力看到潜在机会并凭自己的意志采取行动，因为他们一生中太依赖他人了。

They don't know any other way of doing things, and they don't have a mind that can see a potential opportunity and act on it by their own will because they've been dependent on other people for so much of their life.

当等待者的问题在于起步太晚的代价。

The problem with being a waiter is the penalty for starting late.

在以往的技术变革中，你只需等待几年，然后就能追赶上来，这也没关系。

In previous technological shifts, you could just wait for a few years and then you could play catch up and that's okay.

那时的差距是线性的，但如今有了人工智能，情况就不同了。

The gap then was linear, but now with AI it's different.

差距是指数级的。

The gap is exponential.

今天正在尝试的人正在远远甩开其他人。

The people who are experimenting today are pulling that much further ahead of everyone else.

所以那些还在等待的人将不得不付出更多努力来追赶，而那些早早开始的人和根本没开始的人之间将出现巨大的鸿沟。

So the people who are waiting are going to have to play that much more catch up and there's going to be such this huge gap between those who started early and those who didn't start at all.

现在，再次强调，我不喜欢听起来像在夸大其词或做出这种断言，但我 personally 亲身体验过。

Now, again, I hate sounding sensationalist or making these claims, but I've personally experienced it.

对吧？

Right?

所以我有底气这么说，因为我亲眼目睹了这一切。

So I feel confident in saying that because I'm seeing it firsthand.

你真的不希望等到2027年才意识到，入门级岗位已经消失了。

You really do not want to wake up in 2027 just to realize that the entry level has been eradicated.

然后你打算怎么办？

And then what are you gonna do?

你将几乎没有余地去学习这些技能，而那时你又会落脚在哪里呢？

You're not going to have much leeway to actually learn these skills, and who knows where you're gonna end up then?

你可以寄希望于全民基本收入成为现实，或者不断收到政府补贴或其他类似的东西。

And you can hope that UBI becomes a thing or that you constantly get stimulus checks or other things like that.

但我并不认为这是一种生活方式。

But I don't see that as a way to live.

如果你是我的观众，我觉得你有一种自主性和抱负。

And if you're a part of my audience, I feel like you have a sense of agency and ambition.

所以你更可能是第三类人，也就是充满好奇心的人。

So you're more likely to be the third person, which is the curious.

这些人才是始终保持好奇心的人。

And these are the people that stay curious.

他们进行实验、构建东西，并以自己的方式学会适应新方法，既不美化过去，也不畏惧未来。

Experiment, they build, and they figure out how to adopt the new way in their own way without romanticizing the past or fearing the future.

他们明白，新事物在变得有用之前需要一段时间的滞后。

They understand that new things have a time lag before they become useful.

对吧？

Right?

你用了ChatGPT 3，然后觉得：嗯，这根本没什么用。

You use ChatGPT three and you're like, Yeah, this isn't really useful at all.

它什么都做不了。

It can't do anything.

但现在你用了Claude Opus 4.5，你会说：天啊，这真的太惊人了。

But now you use Claude Opus 4.5 and you're like, Oh my gosh, this is actually crazy.

但另一点是，这就像任何其他技能一样。

But the other thing is that it's just like any other skill.

不仅工具本身需要时间才能变得有用，你本人也需要时间才能熟练使用这个工具。

Not only does it have a time lag before the tool itself becomes useful, but it also has a time lag before you become useful with the tool.

所以你得给它一些时间。

So you have to just give it time.

你不能只试一次就断言它没用。

You can't just try it once and then say it doesn't work.

现在，这一直都很重要。

Now, it's always been important.

成为第三类人一直极其重要，因为第一类和第二类人实际上在人生中没什么进展。

It's been extremely important to become that third person because the first and second people, they don't really go anywhere in life.

但成为第三个人很重要，因为意义的主要来源是挣扎、地位和好奇心。

But it's important to be that third person because the main drivers of meaning are struggle, status and curiosity.

你的意义就来自于这些。

That's where you get your meaning from.

即使是第一类人，那些现在不断在网上愤怒发帖的艺术家，他们的意义也来自挣扎和地位。

Even the first people, the artists who are just constantly rage posting online right now are getting their meaning from struggle and status.

他们通过在社交媒体上的小艺术家圈子里获得大量点赞和互动来获得地位，同时经历着自己创造的人为挣扎，这给了他们一种意义感。

They get status within their little artist tribe on social media by getting a lot of likes, getting a lot of engagement, and they're going through this artificial struggle that they've created for themselves that gives them a sense of meaning.

所以当这种意义感开始被剥夺时，他们会更加执着于此。

So when that's starting to be ripped away from them, they double down on it.

因此，在这段视频中，我想分享四个引人深思的观点——我认为这些观点非常有说服力，可能会改变你对人工智能的看法、你应该学习哪些技能、哪些技能可能变得无关紧要，以及当下唯一重要的决定，让你能掌控自己的人生。

So in this video, I want to share four compelling ideas, what I think are very compelling ideas that may change your mind on AI, what skills you should learn and what skills may become irrelevant, and the single decision that matters right now so that you can take control of your life.

第一个观点是：为什么这次看似相同却截然不同。

So the first idea is why this time is same same but different.

因为人们总以为技术颠覆是新鲜事。

Because people act like technological disruption is new.

并不是。

It's not.

印刷机使抄写员变得过时。

The printing press rendered scribes obsolete.

在古腾堡之前，书籍制作者雇佣了数十名训练有素的工匠手工抄写手稿。

Before Gutenberg, bookmakers employed dozens of trained artisans to hand copy manuscripts.

这是一种需要多年才能掌握的技能，但还没等他们反应过来，这项技能就变得一文不值。

This was a skill that took years to master and before they knew it, that skillset was worthless.

一台印刷机每天能生产3600页，因此拒绝适应的抄写员消失了，而学会操作新机器的人则蓬勃发展。

A single printing press could produce 3,600 pages per workday, So the scribes who refused to adapt disappeared, and the ones who learned to operate the new machines thrived.

抄写员被学会使用机器的人取代了。

The scribes were replaced by people who learned to use machines.

如今，同样的模式在工业革命中再次上演。

Now the same pattern repeated in the industrial revolution.

手工织工抗议并砸毁机器，与此同时，机械化棉纺的单人产量提高了500倍。

Hand weavers protested and some smashed machines Meanwhile mechanized cotton spinning increased output per worker by 500x.

新的工作出现了，比如印刷工、排版工、机械操作员和工程师。

New jobs emerged like printers, typesetters, machine operators, and engineers.

因此，工作的性质发生了变化，但工作并没有消失。

So the nature of work changed but work didn't disappear.

这里不断重复的模式，现在正以稍微不同的方式再次发生，那就是技能向更高层次抽象。

So the pattern here that continues to repeat and is repeating right now in a slightly different way is that skills abstract upward.

这将是视频余下部分的主题，所以请记住：技能向更高层次抽象。

This is going be a theme for the rest of the video, so just keep that in mind skills abstract upward.

于是，抄写员变成了编辑，手工织工变成了机械操作员，排版工变成了设计师。

So the scribe became the editor, the handweaver became the machine operator, the typesetter became the designer.

每一波技术浪潮都将人类推向上更高的层次。

Each wave of technology pushed humans to operate at a higher level.

这就引出了大卫·多伊奇提出的‘通用解释者’这一概念。

So this brings up the concept of being a universal explainer by David Deutsch.

他认为，所有人类都是通用解释者，有能力理解可能性范围内的任何事物。

So he believes that all humans are universal explainers who are capable of understanding anything within the realm of possibility.

我们通过猜想与批判来创造知识。

We create knowledge through conjecture and criticism.

换句话说，就是试错。

In other words, trial and error.

猜测与修正。

Guessing and correcting.

这就是我们适应的方式。

This is how we adapt.

因此，担心人工智能的人认为它会让人类变得无关紧要。

So the people worried about AI think that it will just render human beings irrelevant.

但只要有正确的知识，人类的创造潜力就没有极限。

But there is no limit to what humans can create given the right knowledge.

我们在两集之前关于能动性的视频中讨论过这一点，那集标题是《未来十年最重要的技能》。

And we talked about this two videos ago in the video about agency that was titled the most important skill to learn in the next ten years.

换句话说，工具会变，但驾驭工具的能力不会改变。

So in other words, the tools change, but the capacity to wield the tools does not change.

人类是工具的创造者。

Humans are tool builders.

这就是我们的所作所为。

That's what we do.

这就是我们能在每个领域中繁荣的原因。

That's how we thrive in every niche.

如果你看过我的任何视频，你应该听过这话。

You've heard this before if you've watched any of my videos.

那么问题来了，为什么这次不同了？

So the question is, why is this time different?

为什么模式在重复，但方式却不同了？

Why is the pattern repeating but in a different way?

因为发生的时间尺度被压缩了。

Because the time scale at which it's happening is compressed.

仅印刷术就花了数十年才在欧洲传播开来。

The printing press alone took decades to spread across Europe.

工业革命花了整整一个世纪才完成。

The industrial revolution happened over a century.

AI显然比以往任何一次变革都要快得多。

AI is clearly moving faster than all of them.

许多人仍然认为这仅仅是猜测，因为AI对他们来说并不实用，或者不够令人印象深刻。

A lot of people still think that this is just speculation because AI isn't useful for them or that AI isn't that impressive.

但这是因为大多数人尽管否认，内心仍抱有暴富、廉价、沉迷于多巴胺的心态。

But that's because most people still have, even though they deny it, they have this get rich quick, cheap, dopamine addicted mindset.

他们只是希望AI能解决他们所有的难题，因为宣传中就是这样说的，对吧？

They just want AI to solve every single one of their problems because that's what was in the hype, right?

这就是当初许下的承诺。

That's what was promised.

AI将解决你所有的问题。

AI is just going to solve all your problems.

它将能够为你做一切事情。

It's going to be able to do everything for you.

所以人们对此抱有期望。

So people expect that.

然后他们去使用它，输入一句话，却得到一个平庸的结果，因为他们不知道如何使用它。

And then they go to use it and they type a sentence into it and get a mediocre result because they don't know how to use it.

于是他们说：哦，这也没那么好。

And then they're like, oh, this isn't that good.

这并没有达到预期的承诺。

This doesn't live up to the promise.

但这并不意味着它无用，也不意味着你不该去学习它，因为显然这里有些东西值得探索。

But that doesn't mean it's useless or that doesn't mean that you shouldn't learn it because there's obviously something here.

有大量资金投入其中，这背后一定有原因，有些人却说：那些投资这一切的亿万富翁只是愚蠢，他们没意识到回报。

There's a reason why a lot of money is being poured into it, people are like, oh, well, the billionaires that are investing in all this are just stupid and they don't realize the payoff.

这种说法来自一个没什么成就的普通人。

And that's coming from an average person who hasn't done much with their life.

我认为，亿万富翁们至少是相当聪明的。

Billionaires, at least I think, are quite smart.

我认为他们比普通人聪明得多，他们非常关注自己所做的决定和投资。

I would say they are much smarter than the average person and they pay very close attention to the decisions they make and the investments they make.

他们可能知道一些你不知道的东西。

They probably know something that you don't.

我知道你倾向于把他们看作是一些生来就有钱的傻瓜，但事实并非如此。

I know you like to view them as these big dumb people who were just born into money when it doesn't work that way.

再举一个例子来强调这一点：2020年，谷歌旗下的DeepMind开发的AlphaFold解决了困扰生物学家五十年的蛋白质折叠问题。

Now one more example to just hammer this home is that in 2020, DeepMinds, from Google, their AlphaFold solved the protein folding problem that stumped biologists for fifty years.

蛋白质是生命分子机器。

Proteins are the molecular machines of life.

它们的形状决定其功能，因此了解蛋白质如何折叠意味着理解疾病的工作原理以及药物如何靶向它们。

Their shape determines their function, so knowing how a protein folds means understanding how diseases work and how drugs can target them.

过去需要博士生数月的实验室工作，现在只需几分钟。

So what used to take a PhD student months of lab work now takes minutes.

这太不可思议了。

That's insane.

所以对于那些争论说它没有实际用途的人，这种情况五年前就已经发生了。

So for those arguing that there isn't a real use case for it, that happened five years ago.

因此，那些率先采用的人和那些等待的人之间的差距每个月都在扩大。

So the gap between those who adopt and those who wait is compounding every month.

今天开始尝试的人，一到两年后就会变得让人认不出来，但对大多数人来说，这太久了。

The person who starts experimenting today will be unrecognizable in like one to two years, but that's too long for most people.

必须在两周内看到成效，否则他们就会放弃。

It has to happen in two weeks or else they quit.

两年其实仍然是一个非常短的时间。

Two years is still an extremely short amount of time.

这甚至还没到读完四年大学的时间。

That's not even going through four years of college.

人们只是对真正取得成就所需的时间有着极其扭曲的看法。

People just have this, like, insanely distorted view of how long it takes to actually achieve something.

因此，这就引出了第二个观点：技能的层级已经提升了。

So that leads to idea number two, which is that the skill has moved up a level.

现在，为了说明这一点，我之前说过我从不使用AI来写作。

Now, to illustrate this, I said before that I'd never use AI to write.

但我补充说，我会用它来做研究，有时把它当作思维伙伴，以及其他类似用途，但我绝不会让它替我写作。

And then I caveated that with like I use it to research, I use it to sometimes use as a thought partner and other things of that nature, but I never would let it write for me.

因为我把写作视为我的技艺。

And I meant that writing is my craft.

这是我热爱的事情。

That's what I love to do.

这是我思考的方式。

It's how I think.

因此，把写作外包给AI，感觉就像是把我的思考也外包了出去。

And so outsourcing my writing to it felt like that I was outsourcing my thinking.

这种情况至今仍然大致如此。

And that's still largely the case.

但随着我越来越多地使用AI，并逐渐掌握了这项技能，一些事情已经发生了变化。

But something has changed as I've started using it more and I've started acquiring the skill.

因为你对某件事越熟练，就能用它做得越多，也越能看到它的潜力。

Because the the more skill you have with something, the more you can do with it and the more you can see the potential of it.

对吧？

Right?

就像你刚开始打篮球时，显然能做的事情很少。

Like if you're just starting to play basketball, obviously, you can't do much.

在你练习之前，你几乎什么都做不了。

You can't really do anything until you practice.

但当你看到一名NBA球员时，他们能做的事情太多了。

But then you look at a NBA player and they can do so much.

他们技艺超群，甚至都不用刻意去想。

They're just super skilled and they don't even have to think about it.

当然，如果让AI完全自动生成一篇完整的文字内容，比如社交媒体帖子、通讯稿或视频脚本，而完全不包含我的想法或指导，这依然让我毛骨悚然。

Now, of course, having the AI just generate an entire piece of writing like a social post or a newsletter or a video script without any of my ideas or my direction that still gives me the chills.

对吧？

Right?

我认为这根本不是你应该用AI的方式。

I don't think that is what you should do with AI at all.

但我已经开始找到一种方法，可以把写作中一些繁琐的工作外包出去，从而让我更专注于写作中真正重要的部分——思考。

But I've started to find a process that allows me to outsource some of the labor of writing so that I can focus more on what matters about the writing, which is the thinking.

我个人认为，这将是写作乃至其他技能的未来。

And personally, I think that's the future of writing as a whole or future of other skills.

它能让创作者、艺术家或任何相关的人，专注于真正重要的事情，而不是实现目标的工具。

It allows the creative or the artist or whoever it may be, focus on the thing that actually matters rather than the tool to achieve the thing.

现在，要解释清楚这一点，我得花一整段视频，所以请订阅吧，等我真正把这套流程打磨好后，我会详细讲。

Now it'll take me an entire video to explain this, so subscribe for that because I'll talk about it at some point once I really have the process down.

但现在我写东西时享受多了，因为不再那么纠结于把文字打在屏幕上的体力活，而更多地聚焦于想法本身。

But I'm enjoying writing so much more now because it's less about like, it's less about the labor of putting words on a screen and more about focusing on the ideas.

我可以从更高的层面思考，我希望我的文字产生怎样的影响。

I get to think from a higher level about what I want the impact of the writing to be.

作为对这个流程的简要说明（虽然远不能充分展现其精髓），我会先列出我想写的要点和想法，这个过程可能会非常详尽。

Now as a brief explanation that doesn't do this process much justice, I start with an outline of the points and ideas I want to write about, and this can get pretty extensive.

我几乎在写作时不担心语法问题。

I practically write the piece without worrying about grammar.

我把我的书籍内容输入到上下文中，让AI理解我的思维方式以及我的核心世界观和哲学。

I feed my books and pass content into context so that the AI understands how I think and has my core worldview and philosophy.

因为当我写作时，我到底在做什么？

Because when I'm writing, what am I doing?

我不知道其他作家是否和我一样，但我有大约20到30个非常重要的想法，它们塑造了我的世界观和写作风格，并影响了我对写作的思考方式。

I don't know if other writers are the same as me, but I have like maybe 20 to 30 really big ideas that shape my worldview and how I write and they influence how I think about writing.

我把所有这些想法都写进我的书中，让它们在时间中延续，并且固定下来。

I put all of those ideas in my books so that they kind of live on in time and so that they're set in stone.

对吧？

Right?

这样我就可以随时回溯，它们就像我自己的个人研究工具。

So that I can go back and they're like my own personal research mechanisms.

当我需要以独特的方式阐述某个观点时，我会参考这些内容。

I look to those when I need the ideas to illustrate a point that I'm trying to make in a unique way.

然后，我在AI与我一同研究的过程中充实这些想法。

And then I flesh out the ideas while the AI researches along side me.

所以它会提取信息并呈现我已知和理解的模式。

So it pulls information and surfaces patterns I know and understand.

它不是随机生成内容，而是发现那些需要我花费数小时才能找到的东西，因为我无法仅凭记忆就记住教科书般的信息。

It's not generating things just randomly, but finding those things would take me hours because I can't just remember textbooks of information.

这就是你最初写作的原因——为了在写作中有可以引用的东西。

This is why you write in the first place to have something that you can reference in your writing.

再次强调，这是一个迭代过程，而这实际上正在成为我们正在开发的AI软件Eden内部搜索或研究功能的基础，你可以在其中进行创意工作。

Again, it's an iterative process, and this is actually becoming the foundation of our search or research feature inside of Eden, which is the AI software that we're building that you do creative work in.

所以你向它捕捉想法。

So you capture ideas to it.

你在其中存储文件。

You store files in it.

它就像一个智能驱动器，能转录每一个链接，比如YouTube视频，以及你输入的所有内容。

It's like an intelligent drive that transcribes every single link like a YouTube video, all of that stuff that you put into it.

你可以通过视频帧进行搜索，然后将这些内容放入项目或画布中，以便以更亲密的方式与AI协作。

You can search by video frame and then you can put those things inside of a project or on a canvas so that you can work in a more intimate way with AI.

如果你一直使用Eden，你应该能理解这一点。

If you've been using Eden so far, you kind of understand this.

我们仍然处于等待名单中，还有很多工作要做。

We're still waitlisted and we still have a lot to build.

所以如果你想加入，点击描述中的等待名单链接。

So if you want to get in on that, join the waitlist link in the description.

但在那之后，我会仔细审阅草稿。

But after that, I comb through the drafts.

我会进行删减。

I make cuts.

当某些部分显得死板时，我会调整方向；当某些部分充满活力时，我会更加深入；对于感觉欠缺的地方，我会给出评论，这有助于我更深入地思考主题。

I redirect redirect when something feels dead, I push harder when something feels alive, and I give my commentary on places that feel like they're lacking, which helps me think deeper about the subject.

我现在的写作和阅读量比以往任何时候都多。

I'm writing more and reading more than I ever have before.

页面上的文字仍然是我的，但我的工作性质改变了。

The words on the page are still mine, but my job changed.

我所从事的体力劳动量已经发生了变化。

The amount of labor, physical labor that I do has changed.

我所投入的脑力劳动量增加了。

The amount of mental labor that I do has increased.

这让我想起了纳瓦尔关于‘用头脑赚钱，而不是用时间赚钱’的名言，因为那是更具杠杆效应的事情。

That reminds me of the Naval quote about earn with your mind, not your time, because that's a higher leverage thing you can do.

我再顺便提一下这一点。

And I'll throw this in here as well.

对于还不了解的人，我制作了一个关于如何用AI系统化生活的迷你课程，但其中不包含这个过程。

For those unaware, I've created a mini course on how I systemize my life with AI that doesn't contain this process.

但如果你还没看过这个课程，我相信它会让你对AI的可能性大开眼界，尤其是如果你还没怎么深入接触过AI的话。

But if you haven't gone through that already, I think it'll kind of blow your mind as to what's possible with AI, especially if you haven't really dove into AI much yet.

所以这个课程的链接也在描述中。

So link to that is in the description as well.

但回到重点，这种模式在每一次技术变革中都会重复发生。

But back to the point, this is the same pattern that happens during every technological shift.

抄写员抄写文字，然后印刷术的出现让抄写变得无关紧要，编辑这一角色应运而生，他们的工作是决定哪些内容值得印刷。

The scribe copied letters, then the printing press made copying irrelevant, and the job of the editor emerged who was someone whose job was deciding what's worth printing in the first place.

技能向上抽象了一层，但技艺本身依然保留。

The skill abstracted up a layer, but the craft remained.

写作、编程、艺术，也许现在正经历着同样的转变。

Writing, programming, art, maybe is going through this same shift right now.

任何人都能在三十秒内生成两千字的内容。

Anyone can generate 2,000 words in thirty seconds.

合格但平庸的写作，现在只需每月20美元的ChatGPT订阅就能随手获取。

Competent, forgettable writing is now available on tap as a $20 a month ChatGPT subscription.

因此，基础水平、入门门槛被严重稀释了。

So the baseline, the entry level, got flooded.

博客写手已经失业了。

Blog writers are already out of a job.

我说的是那些为公司撰写毫无意义博客的SEO博客写手，他们不是表达自己内心的想法。

I'm talking like SEO blog writers, those who are hired for companies to write kind of meaningless blogs, not put out the ideas in their own mind.

所以，如果你的写作、编程或其他技能本来就只是平均水平，那你现在是在与无限多的平均水平竞争。

So if your writing or programming or whatever skill was already average, you're now competing with infinite average.

但顶尖水平并没有改变。

But the ceiling hasn't moved.

入门门槛已经被淹没了。

The baseline has gotten flooded.

但顶尖水平并没有改变。

The ceiling hasn't moved though.

什么让写作变得出色，这一点并没有改变。

What makes writing great hasn't changed.

我希望你能思考一下，如果你不是写作者，你所从事的技能是否也是如此。

And I want you to think of this through the skill that you do if you aren't a writer.

对于写作来说，那就是思想的原创性、独一无二的个人风格，以及让别人看到他们从未见过的事物的能力。

So for writing, that's originality of thought, a voice that's unmistakably yours, and the ability to make someone see something they hadn't before.

这些都不是与把文字写在纸上的劳动相关的。

None of that is tied to the labor of putting words on a page.

因此，平庸与卓越之间的区别在于品味。

So the difference between average and great, therefore, is taste.

未来属于那些能够从噪音中过滤出信号的人。

The future belongs to those who can filter signal from noise.

当任何人都能生产任何东西时，选择什么值得存在就成为了一种技能。

When anyone can produce anything, choosing what deserves to exist becomes the skill.

这里的问题是，当阻力消失时，品味更难培养，因此手写速度很慢，而这种缓慢迫使你思考。

The thing here is that taste is harder to develop when the friction disappears, so writing by hand was slow and the slowness of it forced you to think.

是的，AI会阻碍你思考的说法非常正确，但通常是因为人们使用AI只是为了更快地写出垃圾内容。

So yes, the argument that AI can stunt your thinking is very true, but that's usually because people go to AI so that they can write just shit faster.

他们并不是为了写作的意义而这么做，这也没关系。

They aren't doing it for the meaning of writing and that's fine.

如果你是为了写作的意义而做，因为不是每个人都要成为有深度的写作者，有些人只是想传达信息，那你就要用不同的方式来使用它。

If you are doing it for meaning of writing, because not everyone has to be a meaningful writer, some people are just trying to get information across, you you have to go about using it in a different way then.

因此，当AI消除了障碍时，你必须有意识地提供以往由障碍所赋予的判断力和辨别力。

So when AI removes the friction, you have to consciously supply the judgment and discernment that the friction used to provide.

而这正是差距出现的地方。

And that's exactly where the gap opens.

我现在告诉你这些，是因为如我之前所说，大多数人尝试AI后，得到一个平庸的输出，就断定它没用。

Now I'm telling you this because as I stated before, most people try AI, get a mediocre output, and just decide it doesn't work.

但这就像学骑自行车，摔了一跤，然后就认定自行车毫无用处。

But that's the same thing as like trying to ride a bike, falling off, and then just deciding that bikes are useless.

AI有一个技能曲线。

AI has a skill curve.

对吧？

Right?

如果你坚信一切皆是技能问题，那么就在这里将这一信念应用到你自己身上。

If you hold the belief that everything is a skill issue, then apply that to yourself right here.

入门门槛看似很低，因为任何人都能输入提示词，任何人都能免费使用ChatGPT，但要充分发挥AI的潜力，需要不断实验。

The barrier of entry looks low because anyone can type in a prompt and anyone can try chat GPT for free, but using AI at peak capacity takes experimentation.

这件事到处都是一样的。

It's the same freaking thing across the board.

有些人就是不喜欢AI，不知为何。

People just don't like AI for some reason.

有些人。

Some people.

另一些人则非常支持AI。

Other people are very pro AI.

实际上，正在形成一种政治立场，而AI已经变成了一种宗教。

There's actually like a political formation happening and AI has become a religion.

但再说篮球的比喻，任何人都可以花五到十美元买个篮球，开始拍球玩。

But again, with the basketball analogy, anyone can go and buy a basketball for 5 to $10 and start dribbling it and playing around.

但这并不意味着你篮球打得好。

That doesn't mean that you're any good at playing basketball.

这也不意味着你能进NBA。

That doesn't mean you're gonna get into the NBA.

所以需要不断尝试。

So it takes experimentation.

需要失败、调整、再试一次。

It takes failing, adjusting, trying again.

需要反复迭代。

It takes iteration.

需要智慧，就像我们两集视频前在关于能动性的视频中谈到的那样。

It takes intelligence, like we talked about two videos ago in the video on agency.

需要不断实验，直到找到、创造或发现一个符合你思维方式、工作流程以及你想向世界输出内容的流程。

It takes experimenting until you find or create, or discover a workflow that fits how you think and fits your workflow and what you want to put out into the world.

如果你根本没想过这个问题，那么你的输出肯定会是一团糟。

If you haven't thought about in the slightest, then yeah, your output is going to be slop.

所以第三个想法：2026年真正该学什么。

So idea number three, what to actually learn in 2026.

我允许你完全忽略所谓的2026年最佳技能清单，因为没有任何一项技能能救你，但快速学习任何技能的能力可以。

And you have my permission here to just ignore, completely ignore, the best skills to learn list for 2026 because no skill is going to save you, but the ability to learn any skill fast will.

再次谈到专家与通才的话题，专家会认同自己的技能，一旦这项技能受到威胁，他们就会感到威胁，因而不愿改变，因为他们对技能本身充满热情，而不是关注技能背后的本质以及他们真正所做的事情。

Again, on the topic of specialists versus generalists, a specialist identifies with the skill and once that skill is threatened, they're threatened and they don't want to change because they're all passionate about the skill itself rather than the essence of what's under the skill and what they're doing.

但通才则不同，他们有想要实现的目标。

But a generalist, on the other hand, they have something they want to achieve.

他们有使命，有愿景，然后据此学习和调整，为了达成目标而学习多种技能。

They have this mission, they have this vision, and then they learn and adapt accordingly and learn many things in order to achieve that.

他们不会被束缚。

They aren't held back.

他们的学习不会受限，因为他们没有把自己的思维局限在某一项技能上，而忽视了其他领域。

Their learning isn't stunted because they decided to focus their mind on one skill and not see outside of that.

这才是思维的运作方式。

That's how the mind works.

这非常危险。

That's very dangerous.

在工业革命时期，这或许很有效，但我假设你们大多数人并不想过和父母一样的生活。

That was great during the industrial revolution, but I'm assuming most of you don't want the same lives as your parents.

这也引出了德文·埃里克森提到的‘解放性艺术’这一概念，与已经变得意识形态化了的‘自由艺术’不同，解放性艺术是人们一直以来为自身行动、自我治理或获得自主权所必需的技能。

This also brings up the topic from Devin Erickson where he talks about the liberating arts as opposed to the liberal arts, which have just become ideologically tainted, but the liberating arts are the skills that free people have always needed to act on their own behalf or to self govern or to have agency.

这些技能包括逻辑、统计学、修辞、研究、心理学、投资——即管理和增值资产与自主权，决定追求什么，并在未经许可的情况下采取行动。

And those were logic statistics rhetoric research psychology investment, which is managing and growing assets and agency, deciding what to pursue and acting without permission.

这些未必是具体的技能，而是一种能力，你必须通过实践那些需要这些能力的事情来培养它们。

Now these aren't necessarily skills, but they are capacities, and you have to develop them by doing things that demand them.

你不能只是学习和思考，就以为自己掌握了这些东西。

You don't just study and think that you learn these things.

这正是平庸与卓越之间的巨大分水岭。

That is the huge separator between average and great.

现在，有三件事可以同时要求你运用这些能力，从而帮助你发展它们。

Now there are three things you can do that demand these all at once so that you can develop them.

我认为，在我们步入失业频发的时代时，做这三件事至关重要。

And I believe that doing these three things are critical when we're going into the age of job loss.

第一件事是打造属于你自己的东西，并将其展示给人们。

So the first is to build your own thing and put it in front of people.

一个带有你名字的产品、项目或作品。

A product, a project, a piece of work with your name on it.

这迫使你运用修辞，因为你必须说服别人关心。

This forces rhetoric because you have to persuade people to care.

这迫使你运用实用心理学，因为你必须理解别人真正想要什么，而不是你以为他们应该想要什么。

It forces practical psychology because you have to understand what others actually want, not what you think they should want.

这迫使你发挥能动性，因为你必须在未经许可的情况下采取行动。

And it forces agency because you have to act without permission.

你通过从现实中获得反馈来学习这些，而不是从书本中。

You learn these by getting feedback from reality, not from books.

我个人认为，我们正见证着工匠精神的回归，但却是从一个完全新的视角。

I personally believe we are witnessing the return of the artisan, but from a completely new point of view.

第二件事是持续公开地写作，即使你使用AI辅助，因为写作是浓缩的思考。

Now the second thing you can do is to write publicly, consistently even if you do it with AI because writing is compressed thinking.

这迫使你运用逻辑，因为薄弱的论点会在纸上崩溃。

It forces logic because weak arguments collapse on the page.

它迫使你进行研究，因为你无法伪造深度。

It forces research because you can't fake depth.

它暴露了你想法的薄弱之处，并构建了像受众、声誉、作品证明这样的资产，这些资产会不断积累。

It exposes where your ideas are thin and it builds an asset like an audience, reputation, proof of work that compounds.

所以，如果你不想在一个工作沦为商品的时代，成为被工作束缚以求生存的专家，那么你可以说，你必须打造自己的东西。

So if you don't want to be a specialist that is tied to a job for survival in an age where jobs are commodities, I guess you could say, then you have to build your own thing.

你必须建立自己的受众。

You have to build an audience.

你必须去注意力所在的地方，而目前注意力集中在社交媒体上。

You have to go where the attention is, which right now is on social media.

你必须构建数字资产。

You have to build digital assets.

你其实不必非得如此。

You don't have to, so to say.

你可以选择另一条路，但许多其他传统资产路径需要大量资本或人脉才能进入。

You can take another route, but a lot of the other routes with traditional assets take a lot of capital or connections to get into.

我假设你没有太多的现金流，也没有多少资本，因此你需要打造一个你有机会去构建的东西。

I'm assuming you don't have a lot of cash flow, you don't have a lot of capital, so you need to build something that you have the opportunity to build.

我们将在另一个视频中讨论2026年最适合一个人启动的生意。

We're going to talk about the best one person business to start in 2026 in another video.

在未来一周左右，我会发布大量视频。

I'm putting a lot of videos out over the next week or so.

关于这一点，我目前还不太确定自己的感受，因为几个月前，我还很坚定地认为大多数人会用AI写作。

Now on this point, I'm really not sure how I feel about this just yet because a few months ago, I felt pretty strong that most people are going to be writing with AI.

但我当时并没有真正使用AI。

And I didn't really AI.

但这里的关键是，仍然会存在有技能和无技能的写作者。

But the thing here is that there will still be skilled and unskilled writers.

这一点是很多人根本没有意识到或考虑过的。

That's a point that many people just don't realize or think about.

而AI本身，如果你只是让它为你生成通讯或社交媒体帖子，它会有一种非常独特的风格，现在越来越多的人已经注意到了这一点。

And AI itself, if you just ask it to generate a newsletter or social post for you, has a very distinct flavor and a lot of people are catching on to that.

我个人认为，熟练写作与非熟练写作的区别在于思想的密度、论证的质量、概念的整合以及视角的新颖性，而不是简单地把文字写在纸上。

Personally, I believe the distinction between skilled and unskilled writing lies in the density of ideas, the quality of argument, the synthesis of concepts, and the novelty of perspective rather than the labor of putting words on paper.

现在你可以做的第三件事是，用AI去做你以前做不到的事情，而不仅仅是你不想做的事情。

Now the third thing you can do right now is to use AI to do things you couldn't do before, not just things you didn't want to do.

因为大多数人使用AI是为了逃避工作、减少工作量，而这通常是因为他们并没有在做有意义的事情。

Because most people are using AI to avoid work, to work less, and that's usually because they aren't working on something meaningful.

他们的大部分工作都集中在基于实用性的任务上，而不是基于意义的任务上。

Most of their work is occupied with utility based tasks, not meaning based tasks.

因此，优势在于那些利用AI尝试完成以前一个人无法做到的工作的人，比如原本需要数周时间的研究、跨数十个来源的综合分析。

So the edge goes to people using AI to attempt work that was previously impossible for one person, research that would have taken weeks, synthesis across dozens of sources.

问题不在于我如何少做工作，而在于我现在能做以前做不到的什么？

The question isn't how do I do less, it's what can I do now that I couldn't do before?

所以对于基于实用性的任务，你可以尽情使用AI。

So for the utility based tasks, use AI all you want.

这很有道理。

That makes sense.

你希望花更多时间做你想做的事。

You want to spend more time doing what you want to do.

但对于有意义的任务，即你真正想做的、想投入时间去做的事，要非常小心，不要用人工智能来逃避困难或技能提升，因为这会迅速削弱你从这些事中获得的意义感。

But for meaning based tasks, the thing that you want to do, the thing that you want to spend your time doing, be very careful that you aren't using AI to avoid struggle or skill development because that will quickly diminish the amount of meaning that you can derive from that thing.

现在是第四个观点：唯一重要的问题。

Now idea number four, which is the only questions that matter.

所以看完这段内容后，我希望你质疑三件事。

So after watching this, I want you to question three things.

我要你质疑你拥有的每一项技能、你无意识重复的每一个习惯，以及你日常花费时间的每一种默认方式。

I want you to question every skill you have, every habit you repeat without thought, and every default way you spend your time.

如果你像现在这样，日复一日地做这些事，直到生命终结——这是人之常情——这会导向你想要的未来吗？

Now if you were to do those same things every day for the rest of your life like you are set to do right now it's human nature, is that going to lead to a future you want?

我希望你真正认真地思考这个问题，结合这个世界变化的速度。

I want you to really actually think about that in relation to how fast the world is changing.

你是在前沿，还是在安于为普通人保留的平庸生活？

Are you on the cutting edge or are you settling for the average life reserved for average people?

因为有一些事情是你能做的，而这些事情不会被完全取代。

Because there is something you can do that won't be entirely replaced.

有一些事情。

There is something.

有一些机会。

There is some opportunity.

有一些东西是你能够发现和找到的，但你不可能只靠想一天或试一天就找到它。

There is something you can discover and find, and you're not gonna find it just by thinking about it for one day or trying things for one day.

成为一个自由或自主个体的方式，就是调整自己，将这种态度融入生活方式。

The way of being a free or sovereign individual is to adjust, adopt this as a lifestyle.

这就像是一个探险家在丛林中穿行，却不知道宝藏在哪里。

It's like you're an explorer navigating through the jungle and you don't know where the treasure is.

你不知道任何东西的具体位置。

You don't know where anything is.

你只能一路劈开荆棘，自己摸索出来。

You just have to slash your way and figure it out.

你必须彻底摆脱你一直以来做事的方式，那很可能是工业时代生活方式的残余。

You have to completely detach from the way you've been doing things, which is probably the residue of industrial living.

所以你能做的，是你品味、判断力和看待问题方式的结合。

So the thing that you can do is a combination of your taste and your judgment and your way of seeing problems.

你的任务是找到这件事，而你无法通过逃避或抗拒来找到它。

Your job is to find that thing and you're not going to find it by or resisting.

你必须在你所知的边界之外进行探索。

You must experiment at the edge of what you know.

你必须发现自己的真正边界，那些在未来十二到三十六个月内弄清楚这一点的人，将被视为像不同物种一样。

You must discover what your edge actually is, and the people who figure this out over the next twelve to thirty six months will be seen as like a different species.

指数级进步的成果，只属于那些敢于拥抱风险并在过程中不断摸索的人。

The fruits of exponential progress are reserved for those who lean into the risk and figure it out along the way.

本视频中提到的资源，请参见描述中的链接。

Resources that I mentioned for this video are available via the links in the description.

别忘了点赞和订阅。

Make sure you like, subscribe while you're here.

我说过的那些视频，它们将会发布。

Videos the videos I said that are going out, they're gonna go out.

感谢观看。

Thank you for watching.

感谢你的到来。

I appreciate you being here.

再见。

Bye.