千万别这么做...人人都知道低买高卖，却偏偏反其道而行 | Adam Back

这里是iHeart播客。经营企业却从未考虑过播客？请三思。收听播客的美国人比通过Spotify和Pandora收听广告支持流媒体音乐的人数更多。作为头号播客平台，iHeart的规模是第二名和第三名总和的两倍。

This is an iHeart podcast. Run a business and not thinking about podcasting? Think again. More Americans listen to podcasts than ad supported streaming music from Spotify and Pandora. And as the number one podcaster, podcaster, iHeart's twice as large as the next two combined.

了解播客如何助力您的业务。请拨打844844

Learn how podcasting can help your business. Call 844844

大家好，我是艾德·赫尔姆斯，《Snafu》的主持人，这档节目讲述历史上最严重的失误。新一季节目中，每期都会带来一个全新的SNAFU故事。

Hey. It's Ed Helms, host of Snafu, my podcast about history's greatest screw ups. On our new season, we're bringing you a new SNAFU every single episode.

32枚遗失的核武器？你会惊呼：等等，停一下，什么情况？

32 lost nuclear weapons? You're like, wait. Stop. What?

没错。这一季将充满历史轶事、爆笑瞬间，还有精彩的保罗·谢尔、安吉拉和珍娜、尼克·克罗尔、乔丹·克莱珀。请在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或任何播客平台收听艾德·赫尔姆斯主持的《Snafu》第四季。

Yeah. It's gonna be a whole lot of history, a whole lot of funny, and a whole lot of fabulous Paul Scheer, Angela and Jenna, Nick Kroll, Jordan Klepper. Listen to season four of Snafu with Ed Helms on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

两位富有的美国年轻人移居哥斯达黎加丛林重新开始，但其中一人最终丧命，另一人三次因谋杀受审。故事始于一个梦想、一片自然保护区和一栋壮观的新家。但渐渐地

Two rich young Americans move to the Costa Rican jungle to start over, but one of them will end up dead and the other tried for murder three times. It starts with a dream, a nature reserve, and a spectacular new home. But little by little

他们失控了。他们真的失控了。

They lose it. They actually lose it.

他们有点疯了。

They sort of went nuts.

直到一天晚上，一切都失控了。在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或任何你获取播客的地方收听《天堂里的地狱》。

Until one night, everything spins out of control. Listen to hell in heaven on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

网上有你的照片吗？那你可能已经在不知不觉中被录入了一个庞大的警方数据库。

Are there any pictures of you online? Then you could already be in a massive police database without even knowing it.

Clearview从Facebook、LinkedIn、Venmo账户中抓取图像。我是德克斯特·托马斯，《杀戮开关》的主持人,

Clearview scrapes together images from Facebook, from LinkedIn, from Venmo accounts. I'm Dexter Thomas, host of Kill Switch,

一档关于生活在未来

a podcast about how living in the future

如何正在当下影响着我们的播客。警方正信赖这款软件，相信它拥有引导他们找到正确嫌疑人的神奇能力。

is affecting us right now. Police, are trusting this software with this magical ability to lead them to the right suspect.

在本期节目中，我们将深入探讨警察如何使用人工智能和面部识别技术，有时会出错并将无辜者送进监狱。

In this episode, we dive into how cops are using AI and facial recognition recognition and sometimes getting it wrong and putting innocent people behind bars.

所以如果你的指控者是这个算法，但你甚至没有被告知它被使用了，更不用说提供任何关于其运作方式的细节

So if your accuser is this algorithm, but you're not even being told that it was used, let alone given any of the details about how

工作原理。请在iHeartRadio应用程序、Apple Podcasts或您获取播客的任何地方收听《Kill Switch》。

it works. Listen to Kill Switch on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

今年早些时候有消息传出，费城新生儿KJ成功接受了世界上首个个性化基因编辑治疗，这对研究人员和患者来说都是一个里程碑。但这一成就及其创造者背后有一个扣人心弦的发现故事。我是Evan Ratliff，我与传记作家Walter Isaacson一起，深入探讨诺贝尔奖得主Jennifer Doudna的故事，这位帮助改变人类轨迹的女性。请在iHeartRadio应用程序、Apple Podcasts或您获取播客的任何地方收听《Aunt Crisper：Jennifer Doudna与Walter Isaacson的故事》。

When news broke earlier this year that baby KJ, a newborn in Philadelphia, had successfully received the world's first personalized gene editing treatment, it represented a milestone for both researchers and patients. But there's a gripping tale of discovery behind this accomplishment and its creators. I'm Evan Ratliff, and together with biographer Walter Isaacson, we're delving into the story of Nobel Prize winner Jennifer Doudna, the woman who's helped change the trajectory of humanity. Listen to Aunt Crisper, the story of Jennifer Doudna with Walter Isaacson on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

他们为什么选择在这个时候出售？在我看来，考虑到我们仍处于牛市的相对早期阶段，现在出售比特币似乎是一个非常奇怪的时机。令人惊讶的是，它似乎做的是把所有那些人都'剥橙子'了（意指清理出场）。

Why would they sell at this time? It seems like a really strange time to be selling Bitcoin given that we're, to my mind, still in the relatively early days of the bull market. Surprisingly, what it seems to have done is it seems to orange peeled all those people.

在美国，我们有黑色星期五促销，对吧，感恩节之后，人们早上6点就排队去省点钱买电子产品什么的。但当金融资产打折时，我们却不这么想。我们会说，哦，我现在不想买。它在打折呢。是啊。

When in The US, we have the Black Friday sales, right, after Thanksgiving, and people stand in line at 6AM to go save money on whatever electronics or whatever. But when financial assets go on sale, we don't think about it like that. We're like, oh, I don't wanna buy it now. It's on sale. Yeah.

我的意思是，这确实有点像骗局陷阱，因为人们会

I mean, it's really a bit of a trap with the con because people will

好了，Adam。我们在比特币大会上。你就像是元老级的比特币玩家。首先，我想深入探讨一下比特币国库公司带来的一些重大兴奋点。我知道你现在正专注于这个。

Alright, Adam. We're here at the Bitcoin conference. You're like the OG OG Bitcoiner. First of all, I wanna dig into, like, some of the big excitement that we have going on with the Bitcoin treasury companies. I know you're all about that right now.

你们在那个领域做了很多事情，但过去十五年我们到底取得了多大进展？

There's a lot of things that you're doing in that space, but how far have we come in the last fifteen years?

是的。我认为我们在指标方面经历了一次增长爆发——现货ETF是个重大事件，但那是法院推动的。SEC并非自愿批准。不过现在随着现任政府更加开放，我认为很多指标已经赶上了如果没有过去几年阻力时本该达到的水平。

Yeah. Well, I think we've got a kind of growth spurt in terms of metrics the last well, I guess the spot ETFs was a big one, but that was by the courts. So it wasn't like the SEC approved it willingly. But now with the current administration, they're more open for business. And so I think we kind of got a lot of metrics caught up with where they would have been without that friction over the last few years.

传统股票托管机构现在获准托管比特币，他们还需要做些工作但已经具备能力。更多金融机构正在推出加密货币相关产品，这些需要时间落地——他们会先宣布计划，然后花数月时间制定顾问指南和配置建议方案。按市场周期来看，可能未来六个月内会陆续实现。

So, you know, the regulatory environment for the traditional custodians of shares are now cleared to, you know, custody Bitcoin. They've got they've got some work to do, but they're able to do it. And more of a wave of financial institutions offering the coin related products. Those things take a while to land because they will say they're gonna do it, but then they're gonna spend months figuring out the guidelines for their advisers and what allocations they can advise and things like that. So probably in market terms, it's gonna land in the next six months or something in some of them.

令人困惑的是价格才11万美元。结合背景看感觉很便宜对吧？因为减半前我们达到过7.3万，现在涨幅并不大。而金融机构和财富基金发布的利好消息、ETF资金流入量都非常巨大——仅MicroStrategy的购买量就是减半后日挖矿量的两倍，BlackRock又贡献了另外两倍。

Confusingly, the price is only 110,000. It feels cheap with the context, right, because we got to, what, 73,000 before halving, 73 and a half. It's not that much higher. And the amount of positive news announcements from financial institutions or from wealth funds, the ETF inflows, all of these things are enormous. Between MicroStrategy alone, that's two times the mined Bitcoin per day since the halving, and BlackRock, I bit another two times.

Bitfinex上的交易员有时会根据市场状况吸收两倍以上的量，所以价格回落时会有买盘支撑。但问题是：谁在抛售？他们为什么选择这个时候卖出？在我看来，当前所有指标都显示牛市还处于相对早期阶段，此时抛售比特币显得非常奇怪。

There are traders on Bitfinex at times absorbing one or two times more depending on market conditions, so it's a bit of buying if it falls back. And somehow the price is you know, question is who is selling? Like, why would you what's going in their head? Why would they sell at this time? It seems like a really strange time to be selling Bitcoin given that we're, to my mind, still in the relatively early days of the bull market with all of the metrics, you know, running really hard.

链上指标试图通过UTXO的账龄移动来推测抛售来源，这个指标虽然存在噪音，但看起来有些持有一年半到两年的人可能在抛售。他们或许是在上一轮牛市6万美元附近买入，经历了跌至1.5万美元的过程后难以承受。

So, what are the on chain metrics where people try to guess based on, you know, which age UTXOs they see moving? It's an indicator, and it's noisy. But it looks like some people have been holding Bitcoin for a year and a half, two years. So maybe they bought in the previous bull market around the 60,000 mark. Perhaps they didn't enjoy watching it at 15 and a half.

于是他们选择在接近成本价时抛售。但不管抛售者是谁，买方力量十分强劲——这些卖家迟早会耗尽手中的比特币。

Yeah. And so they're like, okay. They're selling virtually. And so maybe that's going on, but, you know, whoever is selling, you know, there's a lot of buying. They have to run out of coins to sell sooner or later.

是的。所以我认为这时候它又变得有趣了。我的意思是，你知道，我们现在虽然不算很高，但上周我们刚刚几次创下了历史新高，对吧？所以它又开始动起来了。

Yeah. So I think that's when it gets interesting again. I mean, you know, we're we're it's not very high, but, I mean, we just had an all time high in the last week a few times, right, so so it's on the move again

没错。不过。是的。我想更深入地探讨一下这些指标以及你正在做的一些事情，还有这一切的发展方向。但如果我们稍微回溯一下，回到你提出的观点，我们在政治上经历了一个重大的转折点。

Yeah. Still. Yeah. I wanna dig more into those metrics and some of the things that you're working on and and where where this is all going. But if we go back a little bit, so to the point that you're making, right, we have this big pivotal shift in in politics.

我认为你所说的可能是整个行业，也许是整个比特币，在某种程度上几乎被我们之前的政治环境压制了。是的。现在它需要迎头赶上，因为政治风向已经改变了。对。没错。

And I think what you were saying is maybe the industry as a whole, maybe Bitcoin as a whole was sort of almost suppressed potentially by this political environment that we had. Yep. And now it's sort of got some catch up to do now because the political winds have changed. Right. Right.

所以这种情况正在发生，而且有大量的买入。但当然，正如我所想，你也说了，这意味着人们也在卖出。

So so that's happening, and there's enormous buying. But, of course, as I was thinking, you said it, that means people are selling as well.

有人卖掉了它。

Somebody sold it.

是的。所以，你知道，我看到很多人——你是最初的密码朋克。我看到很多人在网上说，比特币正在失去它的密码朋克根基，现在它变得企业化了，大家都在乞求政府购买它之类的。你对这种说法有什么回应？

Yeah. And and so, you know, I see there's a lot of people in you're the original, like, cypherpunk. And so I see a lot of people online saying, but Bitcoin's losing its cypherpunk roots, and now it's going corporate, and now everybody's begging for the government to buy it and these types of things. What would your response be to that?

嗯，我并不真的这么觉得，因为问题是当新人加入时，他们的心态是什么，他们从参与比特币中学到了什么？如果你回溯几年，人们并不确定。我的意思是，他们称之为‘西装革履的人来了’，但那些专业人士、资产管理人、顾问、财富管理公司等等，你知道，他们会吸收这种精神吗？还是政治家们会稀释它，基本上就是这样。对吧？

Well, I don't I don't really feel that because the, the question is when new people come in, what is their mindset, and what do they learn from participating in Bitcoin? So if you go back a few years, people were not sure. I mean, they call it the suits coming, but the professionals, the asset managers, the advisors, the wealth management companies So, you know, are they gonna absorb the ethos and politicians and so on? Dilute dilute it, basically. Right?

所以你可能获得了财务上的成功，但在使命和理念上却被稀释了，那种无需许可的全球货币的理念，这其实是相当激进的。令人惊讶的是，实际上它似乎已经让所有人都接受了这一点。你看，现在有些政客个人比特币配置比例很高，他们显然真正理解了它。现在似乎连总统也真正理解了，对吧？这部分是因为他遭遇了政治上的银行服务终止，这让他恍然大悟，对吗？

So you could have a financial success, get but diluted in terms of its mission, its ethos, kind of permissionless global money, right, which is a pretty radical thing. And surprisingly, actually, what it seems to have done is it seems to orange peeled all those people. So, you know, you have politicians who are clearly up to here in terms of personal Bitcoin allocation who actually get it. Now it seems like we have a president who actually gets it too, right? And part of that was situational that he got politically debanked, and it clicked, right?

我认为埃里克·特朗普特别说过，被银行终止服务让他们真正意识到了比特币的重要性。萨尔瓦多刚开始推行比特币时也有类似情况，起初人们不确定这到底是政客为了当选或吸引热门投资而跟风，但后来发现他实际上是萨尔瓦多的'零号病人'，是他在大力推动，而且民众也确实大规模接受了。看起来，硬货币的激励协调机制为各种情况带来了健康的激励，其扩展效果比我们最初担心的要好得多——从个人挖矿交易到私营公司，再到上市公司。这种理念正在以规模化方式良好发展，激励措施在网络安全、市场参与、挖矿以及比特币产品服务建设的经济利益平衡方面都保持得很好。

And one of the I think Eric Trump had specifically said that, you know, that getting debanked made it real for them, And you know, something similar with El Salvador when they first started the Bitcoin thing, initially, people weren't sure, you know, is that a politician sort of following a popular trend to get elected or to bring in band investment because it's a hot thing. But then it turned out that, you know, actually, he was patient zero in El Salvador. He was the guy that was pushing it, and the Achilles actually got it in a big way. So what it seems like is that the sort of incentive alignment of hard money brings wholesome incentives to all kinds of situations is scaling much better than we might have worried in terms of initially mining and trading by individuals and then private companies and then public companies. And the ethos is doing well just in a scaled way, and the incentives are holding together in terms of securing the network and the balance of economic incentives to participate in the market and in mining and in building products and services on Bitcoin.

令人惊讶的是，到目前为止它似乎一直在成功扩展，还有几个层级要走。虽然有一些主权机构涉足，比如瑞士国家银行通过微策略公司有一些风险敞口（我认为约占微策略美国股权的1%，这个比例预计会随时间变化），还有阿布扎比主权财富基金、不丹、萨尔瓦多等，但这些比例其实都很小。另一个显示机构兴趣水平的指标是，有人查看了贝莱德iBit的申报文件，发现在需要披露的投资者中，约33%是机构持有。

So surprisingly, so far it seems to scale all the way, and there's a couple more levels to go because while there are a few sovereign things like Swiss National Bank has some exposure by micro strategy, I think about 1% of The U. S. Equities in micro strategy, and that will change over time presumably. And Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, Bhutan, El Salvador, and some others, but those are actually quite small percentages. Another indication of institutional interest levels is somebody went through the BlackRock iBit filings, and they see of the people that are obliged to disclose, about 33% was institutional ownership.

不过这个数字已经很不错了。我认为其他ETF持有者——ETF提供了一个更简单的接口——代表了可访问性的提升，对吧？是的。对于那类想要投资时会打电话给理财顾问或经纪人的人群来说，以前他们无法投资比特币，或者期货ETF并不是有吸引力的产品。所以我认为这代表了美国财富层级中前10%（除去前1%）的群体。不是超高净值人群，而是专业人士、医生、牙医、商人等拥有投资组合并感兴趣，可能由他人管理但有一定决策权的人。

But nevertheless, that's a nice number, and I would say the other ETF holders where an ETF was a simpler interface is sort of accessibility, right? Yeah. So for the crowd that when they wanna make an investment, they call their financial advisor, they call their broker, and they couldn't do it before, or the futures ETFs are not attractive products, right? So I would say that is the sort of top 10% of wealth in The US minus the top 1%. So not the super high net worth, but just professionals, doctors, dentists, business people, people with a portfolio that they're taking an interest in, maybe have somebody else manage but have some input into it.

而且这不是新资金，他们只是在重新配置投资组合。我认为他们是长期投资者这一事实很重要。我们原本不知道会怎样，但事实证明他们是相当长期的投资者，这是很好的投资者类型，因为他们不会在价格下跌5%时恐慌性抛售，反而可能会考虑买入更多。

And not new money. They're just reallocating something in a portfolio. So I think the fact that they're reallocating in a portfolio and they're longer term investors, it turns out. We didn't know what to expect, but they're also quite long term investors, so it's a good type of investor to have because they're not gonna panic sell when it drops 5%. They better think they might buy some more.

从一些指标中可以看到这一点，观察这种演变很有趣。这意味着资金乘数效应——需要多少资本流入比特币才能推动其达到某个层级——会变小。如果有这类投资者，你就能获得相对于投入资金更高的市值倍数。观察这一点很有趣

You saw that in some of the metrics, so that's interesting to see evolve. It means the money multiplier, like how much capital needs to come into Bitcoin to push it into an x layer as less. So, you know, you you get high multiple on the market cap versus the money in if you have these kind of investors. That's interesting to see the

所以如果有更强的持有者和更耐心的买家进入，那么问题就在于——我认为你之前说的是谁在卖出？卖出者可能是那些在6万美元左右买入的人。他们经历了2022年的熊市，他们不喜欢那种经历。

So if you have stronger hands coming in, more patient buyers so the point I think what you're making earlier was who's the sellers, and the sellers are people who probably bought around the $60,000 level. They went through the bear market through 2022. They didn't like that.

是的。所以他们基本上都感到疲惫了。

Yeah. So they got fatigue, basically.

他们感到疲惫了。他们卖光了。市场从急躁的买家转向耐心的买家。现在我们有了耐心的买家，那些考虑几代人之后的主权财富基金。所以很多比特币就进入了深不见底的冷存储。

They got fatigue. They sold out. The markets moved from inpatient to patient. Now we have the patient buyers, sovereign wealth funds who are thinking generations ahead. So then a lot of this Bitcoin goes into deep, dark cold storage.

没错。希望如此。我想你说的重点是，当短期买家转向长期买家时，这会减少市场上流通的比特币数量。对吧。这样一来，只需要更少的资金进入市场就能获得更高的倍数增长。

Yep. Hopefully. And I think that then I guess the point you're saying is that when we have that shift of short term buyers to long term buyers, it I guess it removes the amount of available circulating Bitcoin. Right. And when that happens, then it takes less money coming into the market to get a higher multiple off of that.

对。所以虽然大多数人认为比特币市值变大时波动性会降低，但你可能想说的是，我们仍然有上涨潜力，但下跌空间会被限制或抑制？

Right. And so then while most people would think that as the market cap of Bitcoin gets bigger, the volatility goes down, Maybe what you're saying, possibly, we still have the upside potential, but it limits or or dampens the downside?

是的。是的。实际上，Blockstream招募了这位对冲基金经理肖恩·比尔，他曾在养老基金工作过一段时间。所以过去几周我们去和一些养老基金、基金经理和基金管理员交流，看看怎样才能让他们从零配置开始。他们的思维还处于相当早期的阶段。

Yeah. Yeah. So, actually, Blockstream recruited this hedge funds manager, Sean Bill, and he had a period where he worked on pension funds. So we went to talk to some pension funds the last couple of weeks, the fund managers and the fund administrators, to see what it takes to get them off zero. They're still quite early in their thinking.

他们问的问题非常有挑战性。但肖恩整理的一个图表是波动率分布图，显示比特币具有右偏的厚尾特征，也就是说虽然波动率高，但偏向上涨。不对称的。是的。而你知道，美国股指更接近正态分布。

They're asking very challenging questions. But one of the graphs that Sean assembled is a kind of volatility distribution, which shows that Bitcoin has a fat tail to the right, which say has high volatility, but it's biased to the upside. Asymmetric. Yeah. Whereas, you know, the The US stock index is more normal more a normal distribution.

它们有涨有跌。我的意思是，也有下跌的时候，但基本上上涨幅度更大。所以这是个有趣的数据点。是的，我认为，他们称之为上一代人看到的再分配率。最终，比特币市场行为的故事就是：下跌的存在是为了将比特币从弱手转移到强手。

They go down and up. I mean, there are downsides too, but the the upsides are bigger, basically. So that's an interesting data point. So, yeah, I mean, I think that, you know, they call it redistribution rate that previous generation people saw. Ultimately, it's the story of Bitcoin's market behavior is, the dips exist to transfer Bitcoin from weak hands to stronger hands.

所以这有点像进化，就像生物进化一样。那些出于某种原因固执、坚持或价值投资的人最终成为持有比特币的赢家。那些投资新手或无法承受波动性的人会被震出局，因为即使对有股票投资经验的人来说，这也是一场狂野的体验，因为股市的波动性要低得多。但我认为从长期来看，比特币的波动性正在略微下降。我认为这些管理投资组合的投资者可以进行重新配置。

So it's kind of evolution, like biological evolution. The people who for some reason are stubborn or persistent or value investors end up the winners holding the Bitcoin. People that are, you know, new to investing or cast them up volatility, they get shaken out because it is a wild experience even for somebody with equity investment experience because the volatile is just much lower in the equity world. But I think you can see over the long term that the volatile is dropping a bit in Bitcoin. I think these kinds of investors who are managing a portfolio, they can reallocate.

我认为肖恩带给养老基金的信息是，他管理了美国第一个将比特币纳入资产负债表的养老基金。这是我的Clara VTA，他当时建议配置约2%到3%的比例，理由是即使比特币价格减半，他们也能通过正常的固定收益多元化策略在几个月内赚回来。在他的管理下，该养老基金表现相当不错。他们连续十年实现了10%，略高于10%的回报率，这很好。对养老基金来说，这是很好的前四分位数回报。如果比特币像过去那样表现，当他开始与他们交谈时，比特币是7000美元。等到他完成配置时，已经涨到了17000美元，所以我们已经从那上涨了不少。

I think the message that Sean brought to the pension funds, he was managing the first US pension fund that put Vicar on the balance sheet. This is my Clara VTA, and he was recommending around a two to 3% allocation with the argument that if Bitcoin halved, they could make it back in a couple months with their normal fixed income diversified strategies, and under his administration, that pension fund did quite well. They achieved a 10%, slightly over 10% return for ten years in a row, which is good. It's a good top quartile return for a pension fund, And if Bitcoin did what it did in the past, so when he started talking to them, Bitcoin was 7,000. By the time he got the allocation in, it was 17, so we're already quite a bit up from that.

但仅这一配置就能填补他们剩余的未备基金养老金负债。但通常，基金会每个季度进行再平衡。这种配置的关键在于你试图捕捉不对称的上行收益。所以你进行小规模配置以管理波动性，而养老基金不喜欢下跌，对吧，因为他们无法承受一段时间。但你不能对其进行再平衡。

But that allocation alone would fill in the remainder of their unfunded pension liabilities. But typically, funds are doing rebalancing every quarter. And a key thing with this allocation is you are trying to capture the asymmetric upside. So you make a small allocation to manage the volatility, whereas pension funds don't like drawdowns, right, because they won't take a period. But you've to not rebalance it.

你只是每个季度放弃上行收益，对吧？所以不要进行再平衡。不要对比特币进行再平衡。是的。让它运行，你知道

You just give away the upside quarterly, right? So Not rebalance. Not rebalance the Bitcoin. Yeah. Let that run for, you know

所以对股票进行再平衡，但让

So rebalance the equities, but let

比特币继续运行。我的意思是，他们确实会对股票进行再平衡，而且它们处于不同的行业。你知道吗？所以他们会投资一些林业或农田，或者在不同时期进行配置。是的。

the Bitcoin continue. I mean, they do rebalance the equities, and and they're in different sectors. You know? So they'll be in some forestry or some farmland or different different times up there. Yeah.

这有点多元化，他们会监控这些板块并进行再平衡。统计数据显示这有助于投资组合。但对于比特币的这种投资论点，你是为了追求不对称的上行收益，专门对其进行再平衡是个非常糟糕的主意。只需坚持到底。是的。

It's kinda diversified, and they will they will monitor those segments and rebalance. And they've statistically shown that that helps portfolio. But with this thesis with a Bitcoin, you're going for asymmetric upside, rebalancing for that specifically is a bad, bad idea. Just stay the course. Yeah.

至少保持五年。从历史经验来看，如果重演，我们会做得很好。

Keep it five years at least. And historically, if it repeats, we'll do well.

是的。是的。让你的赢家继续奔跑。就像，让让让那东西继续发展。你从一开始就在这里，所以你已经经历了一些相当极端的长期回撤。

Yeah. Yeah. Let your winners run. Like, let let let that thing go. You've been here since the beginning, so you've gone through some pretty extreme long drawdowns.

没错。所以你已经见识过了。

Yep. So you've seen that.

嘿。我是艾德·赫尔姆斯，欢迎回到SNAFU，我的关于历史上最大失误的播客。在我们的新一季中，每期节目都会为你带来一个新的SNAFU故事。

Hey. It's Ed Helms, and welcome back to SNAFU, my podcast about history's greatest screw ups. On our new season, we're bringing you a new SNAFU every single episode.

32枚丢失的核武器？等等。停下。什么？是的。

32 lost nuclear weapons? Wait. Stop. What? Yeah.

厄尼·沙克尔顿听起来像是个扎实的七十年代篮球运动员。

Ernie Shackleton sounds like a solid seventies basketball player.

还戴着护膝的那种。没错。这将充满历史、充满趣味，还有众多嘉宾。伟大的保罗·谢尔

Who still wore knee pads. Yes. It's gonna be a whole lot of history, a whole lot of funny, and a whole lot of guests. The great Paul Scheer

让我感觉很好。我心想，哦，哇。

made me feel good. I'm like, oh, wow.

安吉拉和珍娜，你们能来我太兴奋了。

Angela and Jenna, I am so psyched you're here.

对你们来说，这样温和地加入节目是什么感觉？

What was that like for you to soft launch into the show?

抱歉，珍娜。今天由我来提问。

Sorry, Jenna. I'll be asking the questions today.

我忘了我们是在录谁的播客了。

I forgot whose podcast we were doing.

尼克·克罗尔，希望这个故事足够精彩能让你

Nick Kroll, I hope this story is good enough to get you

放下那个三明治。所以让我们看看效果如何。

to toss that sandwich. So let's let's let's see how it goes.

在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或任何你获取播客的地方收听由艾德·赫尔姆斯主持的《SNAFU》第四季。

Listen to season four of snafu with Ed Helms on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

在新播客《天堂地狱》中，两名年轻的美国人搬到哥斯达黎加丛林重新开始。但一人最终死亡，另一人因谋杀受审。一次不算疯狂，两次令人震惊。

In the new podcast, hell in heaven, two young Americans move to the Costa Rican jungle to start over. But one will end up dead. The other tried for murder. Not once People went wild. Not twice Stunned.

但这是第三次。约翰和安·本德尔富有且迷人，彼此深爱。他们创建自然保护区，在山顶建造了壮观的圆形住宅。但渐渐地，他们的梦想开始破碎，这对夫妇开始逃避现实。

But three times. John and Ann Bender are rich and attractive, and they're devoted to each other. They create a nature reserve and build a spectacular circular home high on the top of a Hill. But little by little, their dream starts to crumble, and our couple retreat from reality.

他们彻底崩溃了，真的崩溃了。

They lose it. They actually lose it.

他们有点疯了。

They sort of went nuts.

直到某个夜晚，一切失控。在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或任何你获取播客的地方收听《天堂地狱》。

Until one night, everything spins out of control. Listen to hell in heaven on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

网上有你的照片吗？我不只是

Are there any pictures of you online? I'm not just

说到谷歌，其实我在说任何地方。Clearview从Facebook、LinkedIn、Venmo账户中抓取图像。

talking about Google. I'm talking anywhere. Clearview scrapes together images from Facebook, from LinkedIn, from Venmo accounts.

这个数据库现在正被全国各地的警察部门用来匹配犯罪嫌疑人照片，有时

That database is now being used by police departments all across the country to match criminal suspect photos, and sometimes

它会出错。比如在一个案例中，他们的搜索结果中有两个——我想是在前十名内——是迈克尔·乔丹。就是一张迈克尔·乔丹的照片。但警察仍在用它进行逮捕。警方信任这个软件能引导他们找到嫌疑人。

it makes mistakes. So in this one case, two of their search results that are I think we're in the top 10 of the search results were Michael Jordan. Just a picture of Michael Jordan. But cops are still using it to make arrests. Police, they are trusting this software to lead them to the suspect.

但你甚至没有被告知它被使用了，更不用说提供任何关于

But you're not even being told that it was used, let alone given any of the details about how

它如何工作的细节。这不是《少数派报告》。这是正在发生的事情。人们在被电脑识别后遭到逮捕，并在监狱里服刑。我是德克斯特·托马斯，《Kill Switch》的主持人，每周三我们会解释生活在未来的当下。

it works. This is not minority report. This is happening right now. People are getting arrested and doing actual time in jail after being picked out by a computer. I'm Dexter Thomas, host of Kill Switch, where every Wednesday, we explain the right now of living in the future.

你可以关掉电脑，但别让电脑关掉你。在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或任何你获取播客的地方收听《Kill Switch》。

You can turn off the computer, but do not let the computer turn you off. Listen to Kill Switch in the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

今年早些时候，当费城新生儿KJ成功接受世界上首个个性化基因编辑治疗的消息传出时，这对研究人员和患者来说都是一个里程碑。但这一成就及其创造者背后有一个扣人心弦的发现故事。我是埃文·拉特利夫，与传记作家沃尔特·艾萨克森一起，我们正在深入探讨诺贝尔奖得主詹妮弗·杜德纳的故事，这位帮助改变人类轨迹的女性。在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或任何你获取播客的地方收听《On Crisper：詹妮弗·杜德纳与沃尔特·艾萨克森的故事》。

When news broke earlier this year that baby KJ, a newborn in Philadelphia, had successfully received the world's first personalized gene editing treatment, it represented a milestone for both researchers and patients. But there's a gripping tale of discovery behind this accomplishment and its creators. I'm Evan Ratliff, and together with biographer Walter Isaacson, we're delving into the story of Nobel Prize winner Jennifer Doudna, the woman who's helped change the trajectory of humanity. Listen to On Crisper, the story of Jennifer Doudna with Walter Isaacson on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

《俄罗斯富豪坠窗播客》回归了。悲伤寡头第二季。自2023年第一季结束后，许多有政治动机的俄罗斯百万富翁继续在可疑情况下死亡。我们深入调查这些离奇死亡事件，包括蘑菇中毒、神秘心脏病发作、窗户意外以及斩首自杀等各种情况。自2022年开始调查以来，我们发现关于这些可疑死亡的信息变得越来越难获取。

The rich Russians falling out of windows podcast is back. Sad oligarch season two. Since we left you in 2023 after season one, many politically motivated Russian millionaires have continued to die in suspicious circumstances. We dig deeper into these odd deaths, which include everything from mushroom poisoning and mysterious heart attacks to window clumsiness and suicide by decapitation. One thing we have found since we started back in 2022 is that information on the suspicious deaths has become much harder to find.

不仅如此，俄罗斯的国家控制媒体似乎被用来故意混淆和矛盾发布的报道。正如你可能想象的那样，第二季变得非常诡异。请在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或任何你获取播客的地方收听《悲伤寡头》。

Not just that, it seems as if state controlled media in Russia is being utilized to purposely confuse and contradict the reporting that gets put out. As you can probably imagine, season two gets very weird. Listen to sad oligarch on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

你知道，我我是从2015年左右开始买入的。所以我经历了2018、2019年的下跌，我记得当时在想，天啊。他们为什么不卖出？还会涨回来吗？然后

You know, I I got I started buying around 2015. So I went through the, you know, 2018, 2019 drawdown, and I remember thinking, oh, man. Why didn't they why didn't they sell? Is it ever gonna come back? And Right.

对。确实涨回来了。然后我记得2020年随着新冠疫情崩盘暴跌时，我当时想，天啊。这次完了。市场完蛋了。

Right. It did. And then I remember in 2020 when it plunged with the COVID crash, and I'm like, oh, man. This is it. The markets are done.

你知道吗？然后是的。我从未卖出任何。我没有在下跌时像应该那样积极买入，但我但我成功坚持下来了。而且我对涨到110有点麻木了，因为我不想在崩盘时也感到沮丧。

You know? And then Yeah. I never sold any. I didn't buy as aggressively as I should have on the dips, but I but I managed to hold through. And I sort of become numb to the rise at a 110 because I don't wanna get depressed on the on the crash either.

对。你是如何在这些这些狂热和然后然后崩盘中思考应对的？

Right. How have you managed to kinda think through that on these these the the euphoria and then the then the crash?

是的。我的意思是，当然，这取决于人们的背景。对吧？但普通人并不是软性管理他们的投资组合。所以当他们进入比特币时，这是他们的第一次交易或，你知道，第一次软性管理投资。

Yeah. I mean, actually, of course, it depends on people's background. Right? But the average person is not soft managing their portfolios. So then, you know, when they get into Bitcoin, it's their first trading or, you know, first soft managed investment.

是的。而且这是对投资的疯狂入门。所以我很幸运，在90年代初，大约90年代早中期，我管理着自己的储蓄，通过E*TRADE在英国股市进行交易，参与IPO，涉足不同行业，做股票交易，基本上算是个日内交易者。我当时算是新手，比较业余。但你会慢慢学会应对市场波动的过山车，而且你买的是个股，所以即使指数波动不大，个股也可能剧烈波动。

Yeah. And it's a wild introduction to investment. So I was lucky to have, you know, in the early 90s, sort of early to mid 90s, I was managing my own savings and trading with E*TRADE in The UK equities market and IPO and you know, different sectors, stock trading, bit of a day trader, basically. So I was kinda new to it, amateurish. And but you get to learn, you know, to handle the roller coaster of of the market volatility, and you're buying individual stocks so they can move dramatically even if the indexer doesn't so much.

但即使作为交易者，你也在买卖，所以实际上你并没有真正承受波动。

But even then as a trader, you are buying and selling, so you're not really sitting through the vols.

是的，是的。基本上，我是通过艰难的方式学会的，当时我在做交易，市场也在上涨。所以，你知道，基本上不会错得太离谱。是的。我做了日内交易，但后来市场进入了熊市周期，我就觉得，哦，不喜欢这样。

Yeah, yeah. So basically, I learned the hard way, so I was doing that and the market was rising. So, you know, you couldn't go that far wrong, basically. Yeah. And so I did the day trader thing, but then, you know, the market got through it, got into a bear cycle, so I was like, oh, don't like this.

但我很固执。我不想实现亏损。是的。所以相反，我变得更科学一些，开始思考，为什么在熊市中要持有这只个股？人们需要医疗保健，需要银行业务，我只是不再关注基本面，不再看公司具体情况，转而改变我的观点，更像一个价值投资者。

But I was stubborn. I didn't want to realize a loss. Yeah. So instead, I got more sort of scientific and started looking at, you know, why would you want to hold this individual stock in a bear market? The reason that people need health care, they need banking, and just stopped paying attention to the fundamentals, looking at the company specifics, and changed my outlook to be more of a value investor.

好吧。最终市场回来了，一切都好了。对吧？所以我在那里得到了交易方面的入门。是的，所以当比特币出现时，我觉得，哇，这看起来很有趣。

Okay. And, you know, eventually the market came back, and it was fine. Right? So I got my introduction to like the trading thing there. And, yeah, so when Bitcoin came along, was like, Wow, this looks fun.

我们来交易这个，对吧？但你学得很快。一开始，我想着交易它，然后我意识到，嗯，等等。它在指数级上涨，但波动性很大。那是2013年。

Let's trade this, right? But you learn like really fast. At at the beginning, I was, like, thinking about trading it, and then I realized, like, well, wait a minute. It's going up exponentially, and it's but it's highly volatile. So it's, 2013.

对吧？所以我觉得，逻辑上，如果你卖出，你的意思是希望它下跌，以便以更低的价格买回。但如果它在高波动性下指数级上涨， odds对你不利，就像在一个糟糕的赌场里被操纵一样。所以这可能是个愚蠢的想法。

Right? So I was like, well, logically, if you, you know, if you were selling you know, if you don't if you don't you're if selling, what you're saying is you you're hoping it's gonna fall so you can fight back lower. Right. But if it's going up exponentially with high volatility, the odds are stacked against you like a really bad casino rig. So probably that's a dumb idea.

所以我可以这么说，好吧。我们就去买更多吧。如果可以的话，尽量不要卖出。如果你想交易的话，也许选择一个配置比例，在价格下跌时买入之类的。对吧？

So so then I can say, okay. Let's just go buy more Yeah. And not not sell if you can. And if you wanna, like, trade, maybe pick an allocation and try to buy when it falls or something like that. Right?

是的，我觉得在这个过程中，我的基准不知不觉发生了变化。最初我持有的是英镑、美元、欧元等多种货币的组合。因为我在国际范围内工作，后来我就不再担心外汇波动了。我想，好吧，我持有一篮子货币。

And yeah, and I think along the way, somewhere in there, my benchmark shifted. So originally, I was in, you know, some mixture of pounds and dollars and euros and things. So I was working internationally, and I gave up worrying about the Forex. I was like, okay. I've got a basket of currencies.

谁在乎英镑对欧元、对美元会怎么变化？然后我基本上意识到，实际上我开始更关心我持有的比特币数量是否增加，而不是它的美元价值。所以我在心里将投资组合的价值重新计价为比特币，这样就简单多了。你只需要熬过熊市。就像，好吧，我又成功买到了更多比特币。

Who cares what happens to the British pound and versus the euro versus the dollar? And then basically realized that, well, actually, I was starting to care more about the number of Bitcoin I have going up, not the dollar value of it. So I kind of redenominate in my mind the portfolio value to Bitcoin, and then it's a lot easier. You just sit through a bear market. It's like, well, I've managed to buy a little bit more Bitcoin.

价格更低。这是好事。

Price was lower. This is good.

是的。

Yeah.

对吧？就像'一个比特币就是一个比特币'实际上成了一种理念。我真的不在乎，因为我确信这只是波动性，下一个周期会回来的。但说到你提到的COVID期间的暴跌，是的，确实相当剧烈。

Right? And like, One Bitcoin is one Bitcoin became kind of a thing actually. Really didn't care because I was convinced, you know, it's just volatility. It will come back in the next cycle. But to your point about, you know, the COVID drawdown, yeah, mean, was pretty dramatic.

就像之前的周期一样，我知道它们的历史更久远。我直到2013年才开始活跃参与，但我第一次亲身经历的是涨到1300美元然后逐渐跌到300、200美元，甚至跌破200美元，我记得200美元是之前达到过的一个心理价位。人们很不喜欢这样。他们会说，哦不，它跌破了200美元。

And as the previous one, I know they go back further. I I I didn't get active until 2013, but the one I got to experience first was the run up to 1,300, and I gradually fell to like three hundred and two hundred, and it dipped below 200, which I think was a kind of previous psychological number that it achieved. And people did not like that. They were like, Oh, no. It's fallen off the 200.

那就是它们的那种缺陷，对吧？然后它就崩盘了，彻底完了。要归零了。但只持续了一天。所以那时候我就想，嗯，这感觉挺吓人的，但我想这应该是再多买点的时候了。

That was their kind of flaw, right? And it fell off, and it's all over. It's going to zero. But it only lasted for a day. And so at that point, I was like, Well, you know, this feels pretty scary, but I guess this is the moment to buy some more.

所以我真的设法做到了。这就是为什么我觉得挺好的，我还打电话给一个一直犹豫不决的人，哦，也许我该买点比特币。我就说，如果你要买，现在就买。是的。然后他们真的买了。

So I actually managed to do it. That's why I was it's good, and I called somebody who'd been sitting on the fence about, oh, maybe I should buy some Bitcoin. Was like, do it now if you're gonna do it. Yeah. And they did.

是啊。这很疯狂，你知道，在美国我们有黑色星期五促销，就在感恩节之后，人们早上6点就排队去省点钱买电子产品什么的。但当金融资产打折时，我们却不这么想。我们会说，哦，我现在不想买。它正在打折，这其实有点

Yeah. It's crazy, you know, in in The US, we have the Black Friday sales, right, after Thanksgiving, and people stand in line at 6AM to go save money on a whatever electronics or whatever. But when financial assets go on sale, we don't think about it like that. We're like, oh, I don't wanna buy it now. It's on sale, which is, was sort of a

是的。我的意思是，这确实有点像一种陷阱，因为人们会在，你知道，他们会看到一个110的价格目标。不久前它几乎跌到了75。等它到75的时候我就买。对吧。

Yeah. I mean, it's really a bit of a trap with the kind because people will oscillate between, you know, they'll see a price target that's 110. It got to almost 75 not very long ago. I'll buy it when it gets to 75. Right.

而这可能永远不会发生，或者如果真的发生了，他们又会害怕。哦，也许它会跌到60。我现在试着不那么害怕。75是有支撑的。所以他们就被困在这种心理陷阱里。

And it probably will never happen, or if it does happen, they'll get scared again. Oh, maybe I'll fall to 60. I'm trying to hurt scared now. It's 75 defensible. So they get stuck in this kind of psychological trap.

所以，你可以从不同角度看，但定投算是一种折中的方式，对吧？一次性买一些，再定投，你就不会感觉太糟。而且我觉得新来的人对市场周期 timing 真的没什么概念，因为我知道样本不多，而且上一个周期在周期末尾还多了一个历史新高，这很不寻常。但是

So, you you can look at different ways, but dollar cost averaging is kind of a way to do something in the middle, right? Buy some lump sum, dollar cost averaging, you won't feel bad. And I think also newcomers don't really have a view of the market cycle timing because I know there are not that many samples, and the last cycle had an extra all time high rate at the end of the cycle, which is unusual. But

你之前说，考虑到发生的所有新闻，你觉得11万美元很便宜。11万很便宜。我听到的大多数人，不是这个活动上的，但大多数人，他们会说，嗯，比特币太贵了。所以他们是在看过去，嗯，它不是10美元或一千美元或一万美元了。现在它太贵了。

Now you said earlier that, given all the news that's happened, you feel that $1.10 is cheap. A 110,000 is cheap. Most people that I listen to, not here at this event, but most people, they say, well, Bitcoin is too expensive. So they're looking at in the past, well, it's it's not $10 or a thousand dollars or 10,000. Now it's too expensive.

你在想这太便宜了

You're thinking it's too cheap

是的。

Yeah.

因为你在看挡风玻璃，而不是后视镜。对吧？看着我们要去的地方。

Because you're looking in the windshield, not the rearview mirror. Right? Looking at where we're going.

是的。是的。我的意思是，我觉得，你知道，一种方式是，你知道，我刚才在看，你知道，上一个牛市周期的相对价格是69000，或者第二个顶部损失周期是73500。而从基本面来看，比如新闻流和当时的基本面，现在的一切从基本面来看都好得多得多。而且持续的买入，新挖出的币越来越少，交易所上的币在减少。

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think, you know, one way to you know, I was just looking at, you know, the relative price of 69,000 previous bull market or 73 and a half in the second top loss cycle. And the fundamentals, like the news flow and the fundamentals at that point, everything is just much, much better now from the fundamentals. And the consistent buying, there are less new coins being mined, Coins on exchange are shrinking.

所以说，是的，我觉得价格应该高得多。我猜它迟早会达到那里，因为卖家会干脆耗尽（被浇灭），或者他们会重拾信心，然后决定，等等，它又要涨了。让我们在更高的价格买回来。人们就是这么做的，对吧？

Say, Yeah, I think the price should be much higher. And I'm guessing it will get there sooner or later because the sellers will just simply run out quenched or they'll get their mojo back and decide that, Wait a minute. It's taking another run. Let's buy it back at a higher price. That's what people do, right?

所以，我们卖给他们，然后他们就像，哦不，它涨了。他们可能

So, we sell them and they're like, Oh, no. It's going up. They probably

每个人都知道应该低买高卖，但他们全都反着做，对吧？

Everyone knows they're supposed to buy low and sell high, but they all do the opposite, right?

对，对。我认为另一个值得关注、有助于应对波动性的指标是200周移动平均线，这基本上是四年的平均价格，这个数字非常棒，因为它从不下跌。它总是在上涨，你知道，根据市场状况或快或慢，而且它通常是一个底价。多年来，比特币即使在熊市中也没有一个月收盘价低于那个价格。疫情期间，它短暂跌破了一点，但你知道，牛市时离它很远，而这个数字正在缓慢上升。

Right, right. The other thing I think is a nice thing to look at for people to deal with volatility and to think about it is there's a metric, the two hundred week moving average, which is the four year average price basically, and that is a really nice number because it never falls. It's always going up, you know, slowly or fast depending on the station of the market, and it's generally a floor price. Bitcoin, for many years, never closed a month below that price even in a bear market. During COVID, it closed a little bit, but, you know, the bull market is nowhere near it, and that number is creeping up.

我认为目前这个数字大约是47,000美元，所以我们处在47,000到48,000美元之间。所以，如果你把它看作一个潜在的底部，比特币不太可能跌破这个价位，作为你可信赖的价值基准，那么高于这个价格的部分你就可以更平静地看待。如果你以此作为你的锚点，那么，你知道，当它下跌30%时，你就不会觉得那么戏剧性了。我认为另一件好事是放眼全局，因为是的，人们在之前的牛市中经历过五、六次20%到30%的下跌，对吧？在牛市周期中，价格最终可能上涨了100倍或类似的程度。

And I think at the moment, it's like 47,000, so we're somewhere between 47,000 and 48,000. So, if you think about that as a potential floor where Bitcoin is unlikely to fall beneath that as your kind of bankable value and then everything above that is at a then you can be calmer about. And if you keep that as your anchor, then, you know, you won't say, it won't feel so dramatic when it drops 30%. I think the other thing that you know, zoom out is a good thing because yeah, people have nice chance of previous bull runs where there's been, like, five or six twenty to 30% drops Right. On their way to a bull market that's gone up, like, a 100 times in a cycle or something.

所以，你知道，我们有一次35%的下跌，从，比如我们涨到了多少？大约109，然后跌到了75、74左右。所以大约是35%。

So, you know, we had a 35% drop there from, like what do we get to? Like, a 109 and then down to, like, 75, 74. So it's, like, 35% -ish.

大约30%。

About 30%.

是的。但我的意思是，这很正常。对吧？我是说

Yeah. But, I mean, that's normal. Right? I mean

回到2022年的下跌，自那以后，我认为在那段时期我们已经经历了九次25%或更多的回调。

Going back to the 2022 dip, since then, I think we've had nine pullbacks of 25% or more in that period.

好的。明白了。

Alright. Okay.

所以，是的，这很正常。我想重新探讨一些比特币储备相关的话题，以及我知道你正在研究的一些事情，并重新梳理这些内容。不过首先我想快速回应一下，你提到了西装客的到来。这实际上是我第一次在比特币会议上穿西装。我可是那个标志性的黑T恤先生。

So, yeah, so it's just normal. I wanna get back into some of these Bitcoin treasury stuff and things that I know that you're working on and sort of just taking that back. First thing I just wanna address though quickly, you mentioned, like, the suits coming. This is the first time I've actually ever worn a suit at the Bitcoin conference. I'm using mister black t shirt guy.

但企业确实已经进场了，对吧？穿西装的我猜现在也是其中一员了。但人们担心的是，不幸的是，比特币的分布正从去中心化的零售用户——那些最初参与的人——逐渐转移到企业机构手中。你提到人们认为他们可能会改变比特币，但实际上是比特币改变了他们。

But the corporations are here. Right? The suit I guess I'm one of them now. But, you know, one thing that people think about is, unfortunately, the distribution from the decentralized sort of retail, you know, people that came to it originally and now sort of transferring to the to the corporations, if you will, the institutions. You mentioned that it's people think that maybe they could change Bitcoin, but Bitcoin changes them.

看起来确实如此。

Seems like it.

看起来确实如此，我也同意这个观点。但你是否看到随着所有企业、机构和主权实体进入，比特币变得过于中心化的危险？

Seems like it, and and I would agree with that. But do you see danger in it becoming too centralized with all the corporations and institutions and the sovereigns coming in?

是的。我认为你可以看看2015到2017年的扩容之争——也就是区块大小战争。作为一个例子，我会说那是由市场解决的。当时人们对于将会发生什么并不确定。

Yeah. I mean, I think, you know, you can look at the Falk drama, like, 2015 to 2017 as It's the block size wars. Yeah. As an example where the I I would say that was resolved by the market. People were into people who were uncertain about what was gonna happen.

你知道，有些人认为矿工是决策者，或者交易所或开发者，但最终，市场先生做出了决定，每个人都...

You know, some people thought the miners were decision makers or the exchanges or developers, but eventually, Mr. Market made the decision and everybody But it

选择了跟随的交易所。

was an exchange to go with.

是的。既然我们已经看到了这一点，好吧，现在看起来合理了，对吧？你有激进的自由市场货币。市场会解决任何存在的争议。没有先例是好事，因为它给了你可预测性。

Yeah. Now that we've seen that, okay, that seems reasonable now, right? You've radical free market money. The market will resolve whatever debates there are. And so without precedent, that's good because it gives you the predictability.

要知道，下次就不会那么戏剧性了，因为你会说，哦，没关系。如果你不同意，就直接做空期货。是的。对于生态系统的人来说，我认为观察这一点很有趣，因为激进投资者，那些不太确定该怎么做或认为这对零售支付领域的公司可能略有好处的人，他们被阻止了。他们会觉得这样挺好，但不愿意在金融战中拼死一搏。

Know, next time it won't be as dramatic because you go, oh, never mind. You just short the futures if you disagree with it. Yeah. If ecosystem guys so I think, you know, it was interesting to watch that because the activist investors, you know, the people that were like, I'm not really sure what to do or thought it might be mildly good for companies in the retail payment space that they'll be blocked. They're like, it would be nice, but they weren't willing to, like, die in a financial battle.

对吧？对。

Right? Right.

而那些早期投资者，那些真正将其视为使命的人，在市场上表现得相当凶猛并且全力以赴，所以他们当然赢了。市场就是这样，对吧？所以骑墙派的声音在市场上实际上不会被听到。我认为这是一个因素。然后，还有托管效应，因为有了ETF和国库公司，现在那些为投资者担任受托人的公司或在ETF中的单位持有人，基本上只是在管理其安全性，对吧？

And the guys that were, you know, the early investors, the people it was really a mission for, were kind of ferocious in the market and all in, and so, of course, they won. That's what happens in a market, right? So people sit on the fence, their voice isn't actually heard in the market. So, I think that's one factor. And then, you know, custodian effect, because with the ETFs and the treasury companies, now companies that are fiduciaries for their investors or in an ETF, the unit holders who just managing the security of it, basically, right?

那里没有太多的管理自由裁量权。所以，我认为你可能不希望有太多资产掌握在专业资产管理人手中，因为你希望那些关注网络、并在发现问题时进行交易或调整的激进投资者参与。但我认为最终，如果某个ETF或某个国库公司试图在未来政策辩论中选边站，会有一个反馈循环，即人们会在双边市场上出售他们的单位。对吧？所以如果他们管理的资产减少到零，他们就破产了。

There's no kind of management discretion on there. So, I think that you probably don't want too much in the hands of professional asset managers because you want the activist investors who are looking at the network and picking up or trading if they see something coming off the rails. But I think ultimately, if, you know, if one ETF or one treasury company try to pick a side in a future policy kind of debate, there is a feedback loop, which is people will sell their units at a bilateral. Right? So if they lose their assets under management, if that drops to zero, they're out of business.

对吧？对。我认为这会让他们注意到，也许那不是人们想要的。所以那是一个反馈循环，但我确实认为你不希望ETF中有太多资产。不过，比特币的分布情况对此有帮助。

Right? Right. I think that'll make them pay attention that maybe that's not what people want. So then that's a feedback loop, but I do think you don't want too much in ETFs. But, you know, Bitcoin's distribution helps.

就像我说的，如果人们关心去中心化，就买一些比特币，冷存储，或者从ETF中取出。现在你可以自己解决了。你看，在比特币里，你不能真的向某人抱怨。你可以自己动手，对吧？所以如果你在意某件事，就买入并冷存储。

Like I say, if people care about decentralization, buy some Bitcoins, cold store it, or take it out of the ETF. Now you can fix it. You know, see, in Bitcoin, you can't really sort of complain to somebody. You could do it yourself, right? So if you care about something, buy in cold store.

当然，正如你所说，几年前卖出比特币的那批人现在正在做相反的事情，对吧？他们正在将比特币卖给主权财富基金、国库公司、ETF以及贝莱德。此外，贝莱德的ETF还做了另一件有趣的事情——他们最近发布了一份立场文件，建议多元化基金配置2%的比特币，这为像肖恩这样在2019年提出类似建议的人提供了一个有用的参考点。现在他们可以说，看，贝莱德也在说类似的话。对吧？这样在金融界，人们会觉得贝莱德这么说某种程度上为他们提供了保障，你知道，就像如果出了问题也没关系。

And of course, as you said, the cohort that are selling Bitcoin from a couple years ago, they're doing the opposite, right, which is they're selling the coins to the sovereign wealth funds and to the treasury companies and the ETFs and BlackRock. As well as the ETF, BlackRock did something else interesting, which is they recently made, like, a position paper suggesting a 2% allocation for diversified funds, which is a helpful reference point for people like Sean who are making a similar recommendation in 2019. Now they can say, well, BlackRock also is saying something similar. Right? So people will, in the finance world, will feel that BlackRock's saying it kind of covers them, you know, as if that goes wrong Right.

所有人都会感到安慰，因为有多个机构在推荐它。

All people will feel comfort that there's multiple people recommending it.

那么，只要人们继续行使他们用资金投票的能力，你就不认为ETF或公司的集中化是一个大问题，我猜。

So then you don't see the centralization from the ETFs or the corporations as a big problem as long as people continue to exercise their ability to vote with their money, I guess.

是的，是的。只要不是太极端，我认为这是可以的。而且它为市场提供了价值，让比特币更容易被广泛的人群接触。关于西装革履的那件事，我认为这里有点误解，因为我们有一种简化的世界观，但实际上，几乎所有由专业资产管理人管理的资金都是个人的钱。

Yeah. Yeah. Long as it's not too extreme, I think it's it's okay. And it and it's it's providing a value to the market, which is making Bitcoin more accessible to a wide range of people. And about the suits thing, now, I think there's a bit of a misnomer there because we have a kind of simplified view of the world, but actually almost all of the money being managed by professional asset managers is money of individuals.

那是他们的养老基金或类似保险单的资金，像共同基金或某些管理基金一样被管理，对吧？所以这对个人是有好处的。因此，那些持有比特币的养老基金，你知道，那实际上是交通管理局的，对吧？

It's their pension funds or like insurance policy. It's managed like a mutual fund or some managed fund, right? And so that is good for the individual. So, with the pension funds that got Bitcoin in there, you know, that was actually the transport authority. Right?

所以是警察、消防员、火车司机这些人，对吧？所有这些家伙，你知道，他们过着他们的生活，不会专注于手动投资。所以如果里面有比特币，并且改善了养老金，那是好事。

So it's the policeman, firefighters, train drivers. Right. All these guys who, you know, they're going about their lives. They're not focusing on, you know, manually investing. So if there's a Bitcoin in there and it improves the improves the pension, it's good.

对吧？

Right?

是的。而且我认为那里也存在一致的利益。如果你想想，无论是ETF还是其他基金，我的意思是，他们都希望比特币保持价值。否则他们就会失去业务。如果你破坏了去中心化，那么比特币就会失去价值，他们某种程度上是在搬起石头砸自己的脚。

Yeah. And I think there's also a aligned interest there as well. If you think about, you you know, whatever ETF or whichever fund, I mean, they want Bitcoin to remain valuable. Otherwise, they lose their business. And if you break the decentralization, then Bitcoin loses its value, and then they're sort of shooting their selves in the foot a little bit.

没错。所以从这个角度来看，我们至少在保持去中心化和安全的经济利益上是一致的。是的。那么关于另一个话题——我们最近几乎又展开了一场类似区块大小之争的辩论，但实际上是关于区块大小的讨论。是OpNet吗？

Right. So from that standpoint, it seems like we're at least aligned economically to keep it decentralized and secure. Yep. What about so we have been having almost another sort of not really a block size war debate, but there's been a debate going on recently about the block size. Was it the OpNet?

哦，是的。是OpReturn。那个东西。

Oh, yeah. The OpReturn. That that thing.

对。而且，你知道，扩展那个功能后，显然就会有人提出，那我们为什么不采用不同的协议呢？你对这种事情怎么看？我的意思是，你认为应该采取一些措施，还是你也持类似观点，让市场来决定最终结果？

Yeah. And, you know, expanding that, obviously, then there's like, well, how about we have a different the knots, you know, protocol taken off? How do you look at something like that? I mean, do you think that there should be something done, or you're also sort of the same thing where, like, let the market sort of decide how that plays out?

是的。我的意思是，这某种程度上是抗审查、无需许可网络的副作用——你无法阻止人们。他们可以做任何想做的事。只要支付费用，他们甚至可以用猫咪图片填满区块，如果他们真的想这么做的话。

Yeah. I mean, it's kind it's of side effects of a censorship resistant, permissionless network is you can't stop people. They can do whatever they want. You pay the fees. They can fill out with cat pictures if they really want to.

对吧？这其实有点令人失望，因为你知道，世界上财富分配不均，而通过硬件钱包等直接持有链上UTXO能提供最好、最强大、最可靠的资产保护保障。在比特币领域之外，你的选择可能是离岸银行、佛罗里达的房地产、人寿保险包装等。人们为了资产保护目的会做更多事情，而比特币降低了这方面的入门门槛。

Right? Now that's kind of disappointing because there are you know, there's uneven wealth distribution in the world, and the best sort of the hardest and strongest sort of asset protection assurances from holding direct on chain UTXOs in a hardware world or something. Right? So, you know, outside of the Bitcoin space, your options are like offshore banking, maybe real estate in Florida, you know, life insurance wrappers. There are there are more things that people do for asset protection purposes, and Bitcoin lowers the barrier to entry to that.

在世界某些地区，能够保护自己的资产是件大事。所以最终，在全球范围内，那些玩NFT之类东西的富人用最新的FRAD事物堵塞了链，实际上把一些新兴市场的人们排除在拥有UTXO之外，所以他们将不得不以不太安全的方式操作。对吧？他们将不得不使用托管服务或其他方式。

And being able protect your assets is a big deal in some parts of the world. So ultimately, in global terms, wealthy people who are having fun with NFTs and things are clogging up the chain with, you know, the latest FRAD thing. Effectively pricing out some emerging market people from owning a UTXO, so they're gonna get to be, you know, they'll have to do it in a less secure way. Right? They'll have to use a custodian or something else.

所以这有点不幸。当然，造成这种情况的原因是区块链在技术限制下难以扩展，虽然人们正在努力改进，但目前现状如此。所以，我觉得你确实对此无能为力。网络中有一些松散机制，需要更多工作才能绕过那些保持网络健康的常识性反垃圾邮件限制。但这些机制作用有限，因为他们可以使用矿工、矿池或矿工加速器API来绕过。

So that's kind of unfortunate. And, of course, the the thing that's creating that is it's hard to scale blockchain by the technological limits, which people are trying to improve, but at the moment, it is what it is. So, yeah, I mean, I think you you can't really do that much about it. There are some kind of loose things in the network that make it more work to bypass the sort of anti spam, like, common sense limits in the network to keep the network healthy. But, you know, it doesn't do that much because they can use a minor, like a pool or a minor accelerator API.

他们可以绕过所有政策限制。关于OP_RETURN的另一件有趣的事是，人们实际上并不使用它。他们使用像Taproot脚本等其他方案，因为这样可以获得75%的费用折扣。所以实际上，OP_RETURN已经不再用于存储图像了。

They can bypass all the policy limits. And the other funny thing about the Opera turn is that's not what people are using. They're using some other scripts like Taproot scripts because they get a 75% discount on the fees. Do that. So, actually, op return has not been used for the images anymore.

所以这场辩论在某种程度上被误导了，没有准确反映争议的核心。实际上，它是关于某种二层锚定交易达到了限制——我记得是80字节，而他们的交易大约是128字节，所以刚好超出了限制。他们不想使用加速器，因为他们注重去中心化——如果他们的锚定交易无法上链，可能会在二层网络上损失资金。

So the debate was kind of a little bit missold in terms of what it was about. Right. It's actually about, some kind of layer two anchor transaction that was hitting the limit, which was, I think, 80 bytes, and they were, like, 128. So it didn't quite fit. And they didn't wanna use an accelerator because they care about decentralization because if their anchor transaction doesn't make it in, they could lose money on the layer two.

他们非常希望这能成为网络标准，所以采用了另一种技巧，但这会占用内存，并不理想。总之，我认为这个问题仍在进展中，但可能最终会通过一些简单修改来适应。我觉得有些模糊的传言，但要记住的关键是：你对此确实无能为力，对吧？

They really wanted it to be standard in the network, so they did some other trick, which is, uses up memory. So it's not ideal. Anyway, so I think still a little bit in progress, but probably they'll just do some kind of simple change to accommodate that. I think there's like a little bit of a blurred rumor. I think the things to bear in mind is you can't do anything about it, right?

所以这是无需许可带来的副作用，对吧？

So it's a side effect of permissionlessness, right?

是的。嘿，我是艾德·赫尔姆斯，欢迎回到SNAFU，我的播客节目，讲述历史上最严重的失误。在新一季中，我们每期都会带来一个新的SNAFU故事。

Yeah. Hey. It's Ed Helms, and welcome back to SNAFU, my podcast about history's greatest screw ups. On our new season, we're bringing you a new SNAFU every single episode.

32枚丢失的核武器？等等，停下。什么？是的。

32 lost nuclear weapons? Wait. Stop. What? Yeah.

厄尼·沙克尔顿听起来像是个靠谱的七十年代篮球运动员。

Ernie Shackleton sounds like a solid seventies basketball player.

还戴着护膝的那种。没错。这将充满历史、趣味和众多嘉宾。伟大的保罗·希尔

Who still wore knee pads. Yes. It's gonna be a whole lot of history, a whole lot of funny, and a whole lot of guests. The great Paul Scheer

让我感觉很好。我心想，哦，哇。

made me feel good. I'm like, oh, wow.

安吉拉和珍娜，你们能来我太兴奋了。

Angela and Jenna, I am so psyched you're here.

对你们来说，这样温和地加入节目是什么感觉？

What was that like for you to soft launch into the show?

抱歉，珍娜。今天由我来提问。

Sorry, Jenna. I'll be asking the questions today.

我忘了我们是在录谁的播客了。

I forgot whose podcast we were doing.

尼克·克罗尔，我希望这个故事足够精彩，能让你

Nick Kroll, I hope this story is good enough to get

扔掉那个三明治。所以咱们咱们

you to toss that sandwich. So let's let's

来看看吧

let's see

效果如何。请在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或任何你获取播客的平台收听第四季《Snafu》，由艾德·赫尔姆斯主持。

how it goes. Listen to season four of snafu with Ed Helms on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

在新播客《天堂地狱》中，两位年轻的美国人移居哥斯达黎加丛林重新开始。但一人最终丧命，另一人因谋杀受审。不是一次让人疯狂，不是两次令人震惊，而是三次。

In the new podcast, Hell in Heaven, two young Americans move to the Costa Rican jungle to start over. But one will end up dead. The other tried for murder. Not once People went wild. Not twice stunned, but three times.

约翰和安妮·本德尔富有迷人，且彼此深爱。他们创建自然保护区，并在山顶建造了壮观的圆形住宅。但渐渐地，他们的梦想开始破碎，这对夫妇开始逃避现实。

John and Anne Bender are rich attractive, and they're devoted to each other. They create a nature reserve and build a spectacular circular home high on the top of a hill. But little by little, their dream starts to crumble, and our couple retreat from reality.

他们崩溃了。他们真的崩溃了。

They lose it. They actually lose it.

他们有点发疯了。

They sort of went nuts.

直到有一天晚上，一切都失控了。请在iHeartRadio应用程序、Apple Podcasts或您获取播客的任何地方收听《天堂里的地狱》。

Until one night, everything spins out of control. Listen to hell in heaven on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

网上有你的照片吗？我不仅仅是指谷歌。我是说任何地方。

Are there any pictures of you online? I'm not just talking about Google. I'm talking anywhere.

Clearview从Facebook、LinkedIn、Venmo账户中搜集图片。

Clearview scrapes together images from Facebook, from LinkedIn, from Venmo accounts.

那个数据库现在正被全国各地的警察部门用来匹配犯罪嫌疑人照片，但有时会出错。

That database is now being used by police departments all across the country to match criminal suspect photos, and sometimes it makes mistakes.

所以在这个案例中，他们的搜索结果中有两个——我认为是搜索结果的前十名——是迈克尔·乔丹。一张迈克尔·乔丹的照片。

So in this one case, two of their search results that I think were in the top 10 of the search results were Michael Jordan. A picture of Michael Jordan.

但警察仍在用它来

But cops are still using it to

实施逮捕。警方信任这款软件能引导他们找到正确的嫌疑人。但你甚至没有被告知它被使用了，更不用说了解其工作原理的任何细节。

make arrests. Police, they are trusting this software to lead them to the right suspect. But you're not even being told that it was used, let alone given any of the details about how it works.

这并非《少数派报告》，而是正在真实发生的事。人们被电脑识别出来后遭到逮捕，并在监狱里服刑。我是德克斯特·托马斯，《杀戮开关》的主持人，每周三我们会解读生活在未来的当下现实。你可以关闭电脑，但别让电脑‘关闭’你。

This is not minority report. This is happening right now. People are getting arrested and doing actual time in jail after being picked out by a computer. I'm Dexter Thomas, host of Kill Switch, where every Wednesday, we explain the right now of living in the future. You can turn off the computer, but do not let the computer turn you off.

请在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或你获取播客的任何平台收听《杀戮开关》。

Listen to Kill Switch in the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

今年早些时候，费城新生儿KJ成功接受全球首例个性化基因编辑治疗的消息传出，这标志着研究者和患者的共同里程碑。但这一成就及其创造者背后有一段扣人心弦的发现之旅。我是埃文·拉特利夫，与传记作家沃尔特·艾萨克森一起，深入探讨诺贝尔奖得主詹妮弗·杜德纳的故事——这位改变了人类轨迹的女性。请在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或你获取播客的任何平台收听《论CRISPR：詹妮弗·杜德纳与沃尔特·艾萨克森的故事》。

When news broke earlier this year that baby KJ, a newborn in Philadelphia, had successfully received the world's first personalized gene editing treatment, it represented a milestone for both researchers and patients. But there's a gripping tale of discovery behind this accomplishment and its creators. I'm Evan Ratliff, and together with biographer Walter Isaacson, we're delving into the story of Nobel Prize winner Jennifer Doudna, the woman who's helped change the trajectory of humanity. Listen to On Crisper, the story of Jennifer Doudna with Walter Isaacson on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

《坠窗的俄罗斯富豪》播客回归了。《悲伤寡头》第二季。自2023年第一季结束后，许多有政治动机的俄罗斯百万富翁继续以可疑方式死亡。我们深入调查这些离奇死亡事件，包括蘑菇中毒、神秘心脏病发作、窗户失足以及斩首自杀等。自2022年开播以来，我们发现关于这些可疑死亡的信息越来越难获取。

The rich Russians falling out of windows podcast is back. Sad oligarch season two. Since we left you in 2023 after season one, many politically motivated Russian millionaires have continued to die in suspicious circumstances. We dig deeper into these odd deaths, which include everything from mushroom poisoning and mysterious heart attacks to window clumsiness and suicide by decapitation. One thing we have found since we started back in 2022 is that information on the suspicious deaths has become much harder to find.

不仅如此，俄罗斯的国家控制媒体似乎被用来故意混淆和反驳已发布的报道。正如你可能想象的那样，第二季变得非常诡异。请在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或你获取播客的任何平台收听《悲伤寡头》。

Not just that, it seems as if state controlled media in Russia is being utilized to purpose confuse and contradict the reporting that gets put out. As you can probably imagine, season two gets very weird. Listen to sad oligarch on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

嗯，他们正在做出改变以允许更多此类内容。对吧。或者说诺茨当时正在做出改变以便能够审查它。

Well, they're making a change to allow more of it. Right. Or Notts was then making a change to be able to censor it.

对。是的。我的意思是，我认为争论的原因在于，即使你知道，网络中有两种规则。一种是节点策略或矿工策略，节点可以说，我会中继这个或我不会挖这个。但还有实际的共识规则，这才是决定交易或区块是否有效的关键规则。

Right. Yeah. I mean, I think the debate is because even you know, there's there's two types of rule in the network. One is a sort of node policy or miner policy, and the node can say, well, I relay that or I won't mind that. But there's a the actual consensus rule, which is the rule that matters for whether a transaction or a block is valid.

那个规则，你可以绕过，你知道，你可以通过直接联系矿工或矿池来绕过它。所以即使有节点，你知道，人们仍然可以绕过它，而他们正是这么做的。对吧？是的。所以问题不在于人们，像是，对垃圾信息感到恼火，而是他们想要反击。

That one, you can bypass by get you know, you can get to that one by going directly to a miner or to a pool. And so even with nots, you know, people can still bypass it, and that's what they're doing. Right? Yeah. So it's it's not that you know, think the problem is people, like, are annoyed about the spam as they wanna fight back.

是的。所以，就像，我们为什么不这样做？即使效果不大，他们也想反击。对吧？然后另一个反驳论点是，嗯，它并不，你知道，人们已经在绕过了。

Yeah. And so, like, why don't we do this? Even if it's not very effective, they wanna push back. Right? And then the other counter argument is, well, it doesn't you know, people are already bypassing it.

它不会真的有多大效果。所以你得到了这种，你知道，核战略会赢。是的。一种军备竞赛类型的事情。对吧？所以这是一种糟糕的权衡。

It won't really have much effect. So you get this kind of, you know, nuclear strategy is gonna win Yeah. An arms race type of thing. Right? So it's kind of bad trade off.

我没有技术细节或技术能力来真正理解它，但我会以同样的方式看待它，就像是自由市场可以胜出。而且，就像现在，区块空间相当空。

I don't I don't have the technical detail technical capabilities to really sort of understand it, but I'd sort of look at it in the same way, which is sort of like the free market can sort of win. And, like, right now, the block space is pretty empty.

是的。是的。而且如果

Yeah. Yeah. And if

经济交易的价值不比垃圾信息高，那这就是一个问题。

economic transactions aren't more valuable than spam, then that's a problem.

是的。

Yeah.

如果有人愿意为此付费，那还算垃圾信息吗？因为那样你就是在试图否定他人价值观的价值。

And if someone's willing to pay for it, is it spam? Because then you're trying to say someone else someone else's value is not valuable.

对，对。嗯，我是说，是的，我认为自由市场确实在某种程度上解决了这个问题，因为有时候比特币交易费用非常高，然后它们就不想被挤出去，对吧？应用场景会被挤出去。所以我认为网络会在低费用和高费用之间振荡。可能，你知道，当比特币价格大幅上涨时，交易者往往会推高费用，因为他们并不真正在乎费用是多少，因为他们可能只需支付10个基点的交易所佣金，而费用是名义上的。

Right. Right. Well, I mean, yeah, I I think the free market does, you know, does resolve it in a way because there are times when the Bitcoin transaction fees are very high, and then they don't want to, you know, get pushed out, right? The use cases get pushed out. So I think the network kind of oscillates between low and high fees, So probably, you know, when when there's a big run up in Bitcoin price, the traders tend to push the fees up because they don't they don't really care what the fees are because they're paying maybe 10 basis points to an exchange commission, and the fee is is nominal.

这几乎是无关紧要的。而且他们想进入下一个区块，因为他们正在尝试交易。所以他们会问，费用是多少？然后就直接付双倍。对吧。

It's, like, irrelevant. And they wanna get in the next block because they're trying to trade. So they'll just say, what's the fee? And they'll just pay twice as much. Right.

然后他们就会这样推高费用。对吧。所以这确实是驱动因素，但它会经历周期。所以，嗯，我不知道。这只是正常的戏剧性事件。

And then they'll just, like, push the fees up. Right. So that's really the driver, but it goes through cycles. So, I mean, I don't know. This was just normal drama.

是的，正常的戏剧性事件。我是说，国库公司角度也是一个有趣的趋势。几天前这里有个活动，我参加了一个会议，有许多国库公司在发言，比如小组讨论，还有一些其他公司在谈论他们的公司经验。显然，目前全球有80家这样的公司，规模各异。如果你让他们说出名字，他们可能只能说出五到十个，但显然在世界不同地区还有更多。

Yeah, normal drama. I mean, the treasury company angle is an interesting trend as well. There was an event a couple days ago here, I was staying at a conference where I had a number of the treasury companies, speaking, like Panels, some of the other, talking about their company experiences. And apparently, there are, at this point, 80 such companies globally of various sizes. Now if you ask them to name them, they're probably only be able to name like five or 10, but there are apparently many more in different parts of the world.

所以这是一个不断增长的现象。然后作为一种效应，它一直是人们努力应对的事情。所以来自比特币生态系统的人，比如比特币持有者，其中一些人持怀疑态度，比如，为什么一家公司可以收取高于比特币价格的溢价？你知道，他们会说，你为什么愿意为这家公司的比特币支付20万美元？而传统金融人士习惯于基于现金流来评估公司价值，其中一些人也很困惑，会说，为什么资产负债表上的比特币价值，即净资产价值，不像倍数那样呢？对吧。

So it's a growing phenomenon. And then as an effect, it's been something people are grappling with. So people from a Bitcoin ecosystem, like Bitcoin holders, some of them are skeptical like, well, why can a company charge a premium above the Bitcoin price? You know, they'll say, well, why are you paying $200,000 for a Bitcoin beside this company? And the traditional finance people who are used to valuing companies based on cash flow, some of those are also confused to say, well, why isn't the value of the Bitcoin on the balance sheet, you know, the net asset value, like, multiple Right.

再加上企业价值。所以这些东西很多人还在努力理解，而我呢，已经参与交易它们好几年了。我早期就对支持微策略公司感兴趣，因为最初他们只是用投资来抵御通胀，保护公司5亿美元的现金储备不被侵蚀，在疫情期间他们担心资金每年缩水10%却无能为力。当时国债利率很低，他们想到了使用比特币。但之后他们转变策略，不断买入更多比特币，对吧？

Plus the enterprise value. And so these things so many people are still getting to grips with, and I've been, you know, involved in trading them for a few years. I got interested in sort of supporting micro strategy early on because, you know, initially, they just took their investment to protect against inflation, eroding their half a billion cash reserves from the company, and during COVID, they were worried that it was just shrinking at 10% a year, there's nothing they could do. The treasury rates were really low, they hit on the idea of using Bitcoin. But after that, they turned around and kept buying more and more, right?

这就开启了这种探索现象。我投资部分是因为想支持塞勒的做法，他当时试图在企业界推广比特币的应用，就像让公司世界接受比特币作为储备资产，一种企业储备资产。然后当你交易这些时，你会试图从经济角度理解发生了什么。通过支付溢价购买，如果你是个价值投资者（这是我的投资观），你会希望这个溢价是站得住脚的。

So it started this sort of exploration phenomenon. So invested in it partly because I wanted to support what Saylor was doing, which was he was sort of trying to orange peel the corporate world, like the company world Yeah. To using Bitcoin as a reserve asset, a company reserve asset. And, you know, then when you are trading those things, you try to figure out economically what's going on. By buying it premium, you've got a form of if you're a value investor, which is my outlook, you want to feel that that premium is defensible.

比如，为什么存在这个溢价？它会长期保持还是崩溃？它像泡沫一样会破灭吗？所以我能够说服自己以两倍溢价投资是安全的方式是，你可以从历史数据看，它在熊市和牛市之间波动，可能介于1.5到3.5倍之间，最近六个月大概在1.5到3倍左右。你可以看这个范围然后说，嗯，它低于范围中值，所以可以买入。但这只是更便宜而已。

Like, why is it there? Is it gonna hold on to that premium long term, or is it gonna collapse? Is it like a bubble when it's gonna And so the way I was able to persuade myself that it's safe to invest in a two times premium is, you you can look at it historically like it bounces between, I don't know, maybe one and a half and three and a half in a bear market, that's a bull market, and maybe between, you know, 1.53, you know, in the last six months probably. So, you can look at the range and say, Well, it's lower than the middle of the range, so you could buy something. But that's just cheaper.

是的。我的意思是，那只是看市场，但这应该有个根本原因。为什么它甚至会有溢价？我认为有个原因，就是它在产生收益，虽然不是常规利息意义上的收益，但他们正在增加每股比特币持有量，按年化率计算。2024年，微策略实现了每股比特币增长73.5%，2025年至今又增加了一些，所以从2024年1月以来已经翻了两倍多。

Yeah. Mean, that's just like looking at the market, but this should be like a fundamental reason. Why does it even have a premium? And so I think there's a reason, which is that it's generating yield, so not in a normal interest sense, but they are increasing the Bitcoin per share and annualized rate. And in 2024, MicroStrategy achieved 73 and a half percent increase in Bitcoin per share, and in 2025, year to date, it did some more, so it's over two times from January 2024.

所以我的论点是，如果你在2024年1月买了微策略，现在风险已经得到了回报。现在这就是所谓的覆盖天数指标。是的。所以，这就是那个想法的起源，我尝试做了一个计算。嗯，你真正说的是需要多少个月、多少天直到收益赶上当前的净资产价值。

And so my argument is, well, if you had bought MicroStrategy in January 2024, it's now paid for that risk. Now it's You know, that's the days to cover metric. Yeah. So, thinking was the genesis of that, and I tried to put, like, a calculation on it. Well, you know, what are you really saying was just how many months, how many days does it take until the yield catches up with the current NF.

所以你可以从历史数据看，在微策略的案例中，大约是18个月。所以它变动得相当快，对吧？所以如果你买入，并且认为还有18个月的时间可以运行。因为另一个思考部分是，当比特币被完全采用时，它可能达到芬尼设想的2009年比特币可寻址市场，200万亿美元。我认为我们开始看到这越来越接近现实。

So you can look at that historically and say, well, MicroStrategy's case, it was about eighteen months. So it's moving around quite quickly, right? So if you buy it and you think in eighteen months, there's more time to run. Because the other part of the thinking is that when Bitcoin is fully adopted, it reaches this Finney's 2,009 Bitcoin could be an addressable market, 200,000,000,000,000. I think we're starting to see that becoming much closer to reality.

在购买这个的过程中，我认为一旦比特币真的达到那个阶段，国库策略就不会那么有效了。其效果主要是在比特币通过 adoption 在四年内快速增长的事实上进行套利。但一旦完全被采用，美元价值不会增长那么快。会更像是一种通胀对冲工具，对吧？所以，我的想法是保守估计，也许它会表现更好，但保守起见，我们假设一旦发生，M&A比率会下降到1。

And in buying this and I think once Bitcoin does get there, the treasury strategy doesn't work nearly as well. The effect is mostly an arbitrage on the fact that Bitcoin is increasing via adoption very rapidly in a four year period. But once it's fully adopted, the dollar value won't increase that fast. Will be more like an inflation hedge, right? So, my thinking is just conservatively, maybe it will do better, but conservatively, let's assume that the M and A drops to one once that's happened.

也许那是在几十年后，你知道这需要多长时间。所以，保守派会说，假设需要十年，它会降到一。所以，如果你以二的价格买入，如果它没有任何收益，到期时按比特币计价你会损失一半的钱。但在大多数比特币持有者看来，这种采用不会停止，对吧？所以他们说，如果它继续被采用并达到这个水平，从现在到那时比特币价格会有大约100倍的升值，并经历几个市场周期。

Maybe that's in a couple of decades, you know how long it takes. So, the conservatives are like, Let's say it takes a decade, it will drop to one. So, if you're buying at two, if it doesn't achieve any yield, you're going lose half your money by maturity rate in Bitcoin terms. But that adoption is not going stop now in most Bitcoiners' opinion, right? So they say, Well, if it continues its adoption and it reaches this level, there's like a 100 times Bitcoin price appreciation between here and there and a few market cycles.

所以很可能，你知道，它会在未来一两年内覆盖两倍的MNAF（注：可能指某种指标）。嗯。然后你就回本了，剩下的都是额外收益。你会得到

So probably, you know, you will get you know, it it will cover the two times pre MNAF, you know, in the next year or two. Mhmm. And then and you're covered, and the rest of it is upside. You get

市场是贴现机制。对吧？所以我们试图以比未来更便宜的价格今天买入。所以你的意思是，尽管我们今天以MNAV（注：可能指某种净值）买入比特币支付了更多，但随着它们持续升值或收购更多比特币，最终会覆盖成本，未来我们就会处于盈利状态。所以我们今天是在基于它未来的价值折价买入。

the markets are discounting mechanisms. Right? So we're trying to buy something cheaper today than it will be in the future. And so what you're saying is even though the MNAV were buying were paying more for the Bitcoin today at the rate of their continued appreciate or acquisition of more Bitcoin, then it'll cover, and then we'll be in the positive in the future. So we are buying at a discount today based off where it'll be.

是的。但然后我们看到覆盖天数变化很大。那么这是为什么？

Yeah. But then we see that days to cover number vary quite a bit. So then why that?

嗯，这是——我的意思是，市场价格在变化，所以，你知道，这会直接影响它。有点像波动性，它会，你知道，它会下降——我的意思是，目前有一个做空者试图实施做空市场策略，比如吉姆·查诺斯。他是个做空者。我的意思是，他不是直接做空。那会很危险。我的意思是，他是个美元投资者，但他做多比特币并做空市场策略。

Well, it's the I mean, the market price is changing, so, you know, that that would directly do it. It's like a little bit of volatility, and it will, you know, it will fall mean, at the moment, there's a short seller trying to short market strategy, Jim Chanos, like And a short seller. And mean, he's not straight out shorting. It's going be dangerous. I mean, he's a dollar investor, but he's long Bitcoin short market strategy.

所以，他试图压缩MNEV（注：可能指某种企业价值）。我认为时机不好，因为它已经很低了。当然，你知道，我的策略不是静止不动的，对吧，如果我持有更多比特币。它曾是50万，我会说5.80美元。对吧。

So, he's trying to compress the MNEV. I think that's bad timing because it was already low. And of course, you know, my strategy is not standing still, right, if I am more Bitcoin. It was 500,000, and I'd say $5.80. Right.

很快它就会达到60万，你知道的。是的。而这只是增加了对查诺斯做空的压力。对吧？所以我认为他迟早得退出。

It'll be 600, you know, soon enough. Yeah. And that is just adding pressure against Genas' short. Right? So I think you'll have to get out of the way sooner or later.

是的。

Yeah.

所以那算是短期策略。有几家做空基金尝试过。我想其中一家可能倒闭了，大概是海森堡资本，然后是雪铁龙研究和我们的渠道。是的。所以我认为至少有一家因为这样做而爆仓了。

And then so that's, you know, that's kind of short term. There were a couple of other short funds that tried it. I think one of them went under probably was Heisenberg Capital and then Citroen Research and our channels. Yeah. So I think I think, like, at least one of them blew out by doing it.

做空比特币非常危险，非常危险。做空MNAV也相当危险，因为它就像你刚才说的那样具有弹性。你知道吗？它可能是三倍，也可能是两倍。

It's it's a very dangerous doing anything short shorting Bitcoin, very dangerous. Shorting MNAV, also quite dangerous because it it's elastic as you just said. You know? It it can be three. It can be two.

对于做空来说，这是个很大的保证金范围。所以你在做空某种比特币衍生品，而且波动性都很大。

That's a big margin for a short rate. So you're shorting some kind of Bitcoin derivative effects, and it's all very volatile.

这和传统股票没有太大区别，比如市盈率可能从47倍涨到52倍之类的。

Which is not a lot different than traditional stocks with, like, a PE ratio that could go from 47 to 52 or something like that.

是的。在某种程度上，这和市盈率相当类似。是的。另一个现象是，你会发现不同策略的公司有不同的运作模式。比如MetaPlanet和日本的那家酒店公司，他们的比特币增值速度非常快。

Yeah. It's it's quite analogous to PE ratio in a way. Yeah. And then the other phenomena is that you see that different strategy companies have a different regime. So you can see that MetaPlanet and, or Japanese hotel company one, they have a very rapid rate of Bitcoin appreciation.

还有区块链集团，巴黎的一家较新的软件公司，股票代码是AltBG。MetaPlanet和AltBG都在更快地增加每股比特币持有量。所以，我看到MetaPlanet的MNAV一直在5到10之间，这个数值要高得多。对吧？

And the blockchain group, a newer one in Paris, software company. AltBG is the ticker. And both MetaPlanet and AltBG are increasing the Bitcoin per share much more rapidly. And so, you know, I was seeing their MNAV on MetaPlanet has been between five and ten, which is much higher. Right?

你知道吗？MicroStrategy的市盈率大概是2到3倍。对。所以，在5倍市盈率买入MetaPlanet——这处于估值区间的低端——你会有点感觉。就像，什么？

You know? The micro strategy is maybe like two to three. Right. And so, you know, in in buying MetaPlanet at five, which is lower end of the range, you you kinda feel it. Like, what?

那可是很高的倍数啊。

That's a big multiple.

是吗

Is it

这安全吗？还是会跌到，你知道的，像MicroStrategy那样的2到3倍，现在已经超涨了。对吧？所以我当时很纠结，就像，我该买这个吗？还是已经泡沫化了？对吧？然后我开始研究'覆盖月数'指标，意识到这个指标能说明问题。

is it safe, or is it gonna, fall to, you know, two or three like my strategy, and it's overshot now. Right? And so that was my kind of wrestling with, like, should I be buying this, or is it already overblown? Right? And so then I got onto the months to cover, and I realized that it's months to pay for that.

即便是那么高的溢价——当时溢价大约是3.3倍——但他们在一个季度内使资产负债表上的比特币数量翻倍了。所以现在年化计算是16倍。我的意思是，好吧，也许这是短期效应，之后会平均低一些，但这确实非常激进。而他们的覆盖月数只有大概5到6个月。所以，当你这样看的时候，只要他们能保持接近这个节奏，即使在5倍或3.3倍时买入，实际上风险相对较低。

Even that big premium, premium was it was about 3.3 times at the time, but they had doubled the amount of Bitcoin on the balance sheet in one quarter. So now it's a 16 times annualized. So I mean, okay, maybe that's, you know, short term effect, and it's gonna average a bit lower, but it's really aggressive. And so their months to cover was only like five or six months. So, when you look at it like that, you know, as long as they keep something close to that track, buying it even five times or 3.3 at a time is actually, you know, relatively low risk.

所以这是一个有用的指标，可以这么说，你需要把它与你对风险的认知叠加起来：他们会继续这样做吗？他们的做法可复制吗？他们注重执行力吗？对吧？其中一些公司，比如Sailor，执行力非常惊人。

And so that that is a useful, you know, metric to say, you've to overlay it with your risk perception of, you know, will they continue? Is it repeatable what they're doing? And are they execution focused? Right? And some of these guys are like, Sailor is amazing at execution.

是啊。就在你以为他已经做完的时候，他又从别处搞到十亿美元。对吧？

Yeah. Just when you think he's done, he finds another billion from something else. Right?

或者170亿。

Or 17,000,000,000.

是的。是的。所以基本上永远不要赌Sailor不会买更多比特币，因为他们反复向市场证明了这一点。人们会说，好吧，确实。

Yeah. Yeah. So never bet against Sailor buying more Bitcoin basically as the NSH that they have delivered repeatedly to the market. People are like, okay. Yeah.

但查诺斯已经尝试过了，所以祝那家伙好运。

But Chanos has given it a go, so good luck to the guy.

那所有的BG呢？我们现在也看到的是，如果Sailor创造了这个策略和公司名称，现在他正在把这个策略交给其他人，他们也在跟随。然后我们开始看到它的不同版本和变体。所以AltBG更像是在做一种Bitbond式的操作？

And what about all BG? So what we're seeing all also now is if Sailor sort of created this strategy, the name of the company, and now he's giving the strategy to other people, and they're following it. And then we're starting to see different versions of it, variations of it. So AltBG is doing it more on a, like, a Bitbond?

是的。实际上，他们的做法相当创新。我的意思是，我认为有时候人们这样做是因为不同司法管辖区的可用市场融资机制不同。以MetaPlanet为例，他们使用价内认股权证，因为他们没有ATM（按市价发行）机制，但这有类似的效果。显然，他们没有很多债务，所以这基本上就是按市价发行。

Yeah. Actually, it's quite innovative what they've done. So, I mean, I think sometimes what people are doing is because the market the available market raising mechanisms are different in different jurisdictions. So in the case of MetaPlanet, they're using move in strike warrants because they don't have an ATM, and it has a similar effect. Apparently, they don't have a lot of debt, so it's basically at the market.

在法国的那个案例中，他们做了一些有趣的事情，技术上是一种可转换票据，但它是基于比特币的。所以有趣的是，他们并没有真正的债务比率，因为他们会接受实物比特币，或者你可以发送欧元，他们会购买比特币。与其他可转换债券一样，有一个转换溢价。如果上涨30%，你就有权转换。如果到期时没有达到转换溢价，他们实际上没有信用风险，因为他们只是把比特币还回去，并且他们把比特币放在一个独立的特殊公司里，隔离起来，由独立的托管人保管。

And in the French one, they did something interesting, which is it's a convertible note technically, but it's a Bitcoin basis one. So the interesting thing there is they don't really have a debt ratio because what they'll do is they will accept Bitcoin in kind or you could send in euros and they'll buy Bitcoin. Have a like And with other convertibles, there's a conversion premium. If it goes up 30%, then you have the option to convert. And if reaches maturity and it doesn't reach the conversion premium, they don't really have a credit risk because they just give the Bitcoin back, and then they put the Bitcoin in a separate special company, ring fenced, and in custody of an independent custodian.

因此他们实际上可以出售更多的可转换票据。所以，你知道，对于基于欧元或美元的可转换票据，公司会控制他们承担多少债务比率。而且，你知道，MicroStrategy说过他们希望将杠杆率保持在不超过20%到30%，也就是1.2到1.3倍。当然，他们可以调整这个比率，对吧？

And so they can actually sell a lot more convertible notes. So, you know, with the euro or the dollar basis convertible note, the company is sort of moderating how much debt ratio they take on. And, you know, MicroStrategy has said they wanna keep it no more than 20% to 30% leverage, so 1.2 to 1.3. And, of course, they can moderate it. Right?

他们可以将杠杆比率提升至1.3，然后在市场上出售部分股份，这会降低他们的债务比率，之后他们可以再次操作。所以他们有点像在振荡。是的。但在AltBG（另类资产负债表增长）的情况下尤其如此，因为他们刚起步且规模较小。如果那是债务，他们的债务比率会非常高。但因为这不是债务，所以没问题。

They can build the leverage ratio up to 1.3, and then they can sell some shares at the market, which reduces their debt ratio, and then they can do it again. So they kinda oscillate. Yeah. But in a in a AltBG particularly, because they they're recent and they start small, they If that was debt, their debt ratio would be enormous. But because it's not debt, it's fine.

所以这基本上让他们能够更快地行动，因为他们拥有...是的。基本上，他们拥有一种债务工具，但通过转换实际上不会产生债务负债，对吧？这很有趣。当然，如果这种情况发生，比特币和MNAV（调整后净资产价值）会缩水，因为他们要归还人们认为属于计算公式一部分的比特币。但无论如何，你知道，国库公司需要偿还债务的情况是五年后比特币价格更低。

So it enables them basically to move faster because they have Yeah. Basically, they have a debt instrument that doesn't create a debt liability effectively, right, with a conversion. So that's pretty interesting. Now, course, the Bitcoin and the MNAV, if that eventuality happens, would shrink, right, because they'd be giving back Bitcoin that people had thought was part of the formula. But nevertheless, you know, the situation, the scenario in which a treasury company would have to repay a debt is that Bitcoin is lower in five years.

他们通常试图以五年期债券为目标，这是一个相当不错的时间框架。是的。所以大多数比特币持有者会说，哦，我愿意接受这些赔率。那不太可能发生，对吧？

They're generally trying to target five year bonds, is a pretty good time frame. Yeah. So most Bitcoiners are like, oh, I'll take those odds. That's unlikely. Right?

但如果真的发生，公司再融资可能会很痛苦。对吧？如果他们出售比特币，肯定需要以非常稀释的方式出售股份，而且价格更低。所以这会很痛苦，这就给贷款人带来了问题：你知道，这是压力情况下的信用风险。它能偿还我们吗？

But if it did happen, it might be painful for the company to refinance. Right? They might have to sell shares very dilutively if they sold Bitcoin, definitely, but a lower price. And so it would be painful, and so then it brings into the question for the lender, well, you know, that's the stress case credit risk. Can it pay us back?

而MicroStrategy正在做的是试图双重超额抵押以提供保证。首先，他们拥有平均成本较低的比特币且数量很大。但其次，他们通常出售10亿美元的可转换票据和10亿美元的ATM（按市价发行）。所以他们买了20亿美元的比特币，并获得了10亿美元的可转换债务。所以存在某种超额抵押。

And what MicroStrategy is doing is they're trying to double over collateralize to provide assurance. So firstly, they've got average lower cost Bitcoin and a lot of it. But secondly, they're generally selling a billion of convertible notes and a billion of the ATM. So they bought 2,000,000,000 of Bitcoin, and they got 1,000,000,000 of convertible debt. So there's kind of overcollateralization.

是的。然后他们不会做得太多，以免产生债务比率。但你知道，购买MicroStrategy可转换债券的大多数人都是delta中性的套利者。你知道，比如专门从事此事的对冲基金会购买1.5亿美元的可转换债券。

Yeah. And then they're not doing it too much so that they don't create a debt ratio. But, you know, most of the people that buy in the converts in MicroStrategy are delta neutral, arbitrage. You know, they'll buy 150,000,000, say hedge funds specializing in this. They'll buy 150,000,000 off a convert.

他们会做空1亿美元的股票，剩下的是5000万美元的长期看涨期权，他们会对此进行一种期权收益策略。MicroStrategy的波动性比比特币大得多，所以他们可以玩得很开心。当达到转换溢价时，他们会通过下一批出售。是的。所以，你知道，随着他们转换，债务比率再次被重置。

They'll short 100,000,000 of the stock, and what they're left with is a 50,000,000 long dated call option, and they will do a kind of option yield strategy on that. And MicroStrategy is fantastically volatile more than Bitcoin, so they can have a lot of fun doing it. When it reaches the conversion premium, they'll sell it by the next tranche. Yeah. And so, you know, as as they convert, the debt ratio is getting reset again.

所以这在一定程度上建立了一个很好的顺序，在微观层面上，你可以引入更多资金。这些人正在引入新型资金，这些资金甚至不关心比特币的方向，也不一定相信它。对吧？但他们可以帮助引入资本。这很有趣。

So it kinda sets a nice, kind of sequence wherein in micro stretch, you can bring more money in. These guys are bringing new types of money in that doesn't even care about direction of Bitcoin or even believe in it necessarily. Right? But they can they can help bring the capital in. That's it's it's interesting.

大家好，我是艾德·赫尔姆斯，欢迎回到SNAFU，我的关于历史上最重大失误的播客。在新一季中，我们每期都会带来一个新的SNAFU故事。

Hey. It's Ed Helms, and welcome back to SNAFU, my podcast about history's greatest screw ups. On our new season, we're bringing you a new SNAFU every single episode.

32枚丢失的核武器？等等。停一下。什么？是的。

32 lost nuclear weapons? Wait. Stop. What? Yeah.

厄尼·沙克尔顿听起来像是个扎实的七十年代篮球运动员。

Ernie Shackleton sounds like a solid seventies basketball player.

还戴着护膝的那种。没错。这将包含大量历史、大量笑料和大量嘉宾。伟大的保罗·希尔

Who still wore knee pads. Yes. It's gonna be a whole lot of history, a whole lot of funny, and a whole lot of guests. The great Paul Scheer

让我感觉很好。我心想，哦，哇。

made me feel good. I'm like, oh, wow.

安吉拉和珍娜，你们能来我太兴奋了。

Angela and Jenna, I am so psyched you're here.

对你来说，以软启动的方式进入节目是什么感觉？

What was that like for you to soft launch into the show?

抱歉，珍娜。今天将由我来提问。

Sorry, Jenna. I'll be asking the questions today.

我忘了我们是在做谁的播客。

I forgot whose podcast we were doing.

尼克·克罗尔。希望这个故事足够精彩，能让你

Nick Kroll. I hope this story is good enough to get

扔掉那个三明治。所以让我们让我们让我们

you to toss that sandwich. So let's let's let's

看看效果如何。请在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或你获取播客的任何地方收听第四季《SNAFU》，由艾德·赫尔姆斯主持。

see how it goes. Listen to season four of snafu with Ed Helms on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

在新播客《地狱与天堂》中，两名年轻的美国人搬到哥斯达黎加丛林重新开始。但一人最终死亡，另一人因谋杀受审。不是一次人们为之疯狂。不是两次被石头砸死。而是三次。

In the new podcast, hell in heaven, two young Americans move to the Costa Rican jungle to start over. But one will end up dead, the other tried for murder. Not once People went wild. Not twice Stoned. But three times.

约翰和安·本德富有且迷人，他们彼此深爱。他们创建了一个自然保护区，并在山顶高处建造了一座壮观的圆形住宅。但渐渐地，他们的梦想开始破碎，这对夫妇开始逃避现实。

John and Ann Bender are rich and attractive, and they're devoted to each other. They create a nature reserve and build a spectacular circular home high on the top of a hill. But little by little, their dream starts to crumble, and our couple retreat from reality.

他们崩溃了。他们真的崩溃了。

They lose it. They actually lose it.

他们有点疯了。

They sort of went nuts.

直到某个夜晚，一切都失控了。请在iHeartRadio应用程序、Apple播客或任何你获取播客的地方收听《天堂里的地狱》。

Until one night, everything spins out of control. Listen to hell in heaven on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

网上有你的照片吗？我不仅仅指谷歌。我是说任何地方。Clearview从Facebook、LinkedIn、Venmo账户中搜集整合图像。

Are there any pictures of you online? I'm not just talking about Google. I'm talking anywhere. Clearview scrapes together images from Facebook, from LinkedIn, from Venmo accounts.

那个数据库现在正被全国各地的警察部门用来匹配犯罪嫌疑人照片，但有时它会出错。

That database is now being used by police departments all across the country to match criminal suspect photos, and sometimes it makes mistakes.

所以在一个案例中，他们的搜索结果中有两个他们认为排在前十的是迈克尔·乔丹。只是迈克尔·乔丹的照片。但警察仍然用它来实施逮捕。警方，他们信任这个软件来引导他们找到嫌疑人。但你甚至没有被告知它被使用了，更不用说获得任何关于如何使用的细节

So in this one case, two of their search results that are think we're in the top 10 of the search results were Michael Jordan. Just a picture of Michael Jordan. But cops are still using it to make arrests. Police, they are trusting this software to lead them to the suspect. But you're not even being told that it was used, let alone given any of the details about how

它确实有效。这不是《少数派报告》。这是正在发生的事情。人们被电脑识别出来后，正在被逮捕并实际服刑。我是德克斯特·托马斯，《致命开关》的主持人，每周三我们会解读生活在未来的当下现实。

it works. This is not minority report. This is happening right now. People are getting arrested and doing actual time in jail after being picked out by a computer. I'm Dexter Thomas, host of Kill Switch, where every Wednesday, we explain the right now of living in the future.

你可以关掉电脑，但别让电脑把你关掉。请在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或任何你获取播客的地方收听《致命开关》。

You can turn off the computer, but do not let the computer turn you off. Listen to Kill Switch in the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

今年早些时候，当费城新生儿KJ成功接受世界上首个个性化基因编辑治疗的消息传出时，这对研究人员和患者来说都是一个里程碑。但这一成就背后有一个扣人心弦的发现故事。我是埃文·拉特利夫，与传记作家沃尔特·艾萨克森一起，我们正在深入探讨诺贝尔奖得主詹妮弗·杜德娜的故事，这位帮助改变人类轨迹的女性。请在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或任何你获取播客的地方收听《论CRISPR：詹妮弗·杜德娜与沃尔特·艾萨克森的故事》。

When news broke earlier this year that baby KJ, a newborn in Philadelphia, had successfully received the world's first personalized gene editing treatment, it represented a milestone for both researchers and patients. But there's a gripping tale of discovery behind this accomplishment creators. I'm Evan Ratliffe, and together with biographer Walter Isaacson, we're delving into the story of Nobel Prize winner Jennifer Doudna, the woman who's helped change the trajectory of humanity. Listen to On Crisper, the story of Jennifer Doudna with Walter Isaacson on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

《俄罗斯富豪坠窗播客》回归了。《悲伤寡头》第二季。自从我们在2023年第一季结束后离开你们以来，许多有政治动机的俄罗斯百万富翁继续在可疑情况下死亡。我们深入调查这些离奇死亡事件，包括从蘑菇中毒、神秘心脏病发作到窗户意外和斩首自杀等各种情况。自2022年开始以来，我们发现的一件事是，关于这些可疑死亡的信息变得难以获取得多。

The rich Russians falling out of windows podcast is back. Sad oligarch season two. Since we left you in 2023 after season one, many politically motivated Russian millionaires have continued to die in suspicious circumstances. We dig deeper into these odd deaths, which include everything from mushroom poisoning and mysterious heart attacks to window clumsiness and suicide by decapitation. One thing we have found since we started back in 2022 is that information on the suspicious deaths has become much harder to find.

不仅如此，俄罗斯的国家控制媒体似乎被用来故意混淆和反驳发布的报道。正如你可能想象的那样，第二季变得非常诡异。请在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或任何你获取播客的地方收听《悲伤寡头》。

Not just that, it seems as if state controlled media in Russia is being utilized to purposely confuse and contradict the reporting that gets put out. As you can probably imagine, season two gets very weird. Listen to sad oligarch on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

你认为市场能容纳多少这类公司？

How many of these types of companies do you think the market could bear?

是的。这是个非常有趣的问题。我认识的一位在私人银行业、类似财富管理银行业工作的人问我这个问题，我当时就觉得，有趣的问题。比如，它的可扩展性如何？你知道，如果伯克希尔哈撒韦、苹果和微软大举投入，会不会压缩这个机会？

Yeah. It's a very interesting question. So somebody I know in a private banking, sort of wealth management banking, asked me this question, and I was like, interesting question. Like, how scalable is it? You know, if if Berkshire Hathaway and Apple and Microsoft plow in, will they compress the opportunity?

而我最终想到的其实是，不，这规模巨大。本质上这是一种套利，在比特币未来之间。有200,000,000,000,000美元规模的比特币化金融市场，我认为它并非取代法币，而是吸走货币溢价和一切。股票市场也存在货币溢价。

And what I came to think about is actually, no. It's enormous. It's effectively it's an arbitrage between, you know, the Bitcoin future. There's 200,000,000,000,000, you know, Bitcoinized financial markets, which I think of as not displacing the fiat currencies, but sort of sucking out the monetary premium and everything. There's monetary premium in the stock market.

如果剔除MT货币扩张因素，股票指数涨幅并不那么大。是的。房地产、艺术品、债券等各种资产都存在货币溢价，人们都在试图保值资产以维持购买力。所以如果你把这200万亿视为套利规模，那确实是巨额资金。因此你可以将国债公司视为套利这一未来的工具之一，因为在比特币上涨时，它们可以通过企业资本机制折价收购比特币，同时它们的行动也在对比特币施加压力，可能加速这一进程。

If you take out the MT monetary expansion, the stock indexes haven't gone up that much. Yep. And monetary premium in real estate, in art and other bonds, all kinds of things where people are trying to preserve their assets, so preserve their spending power. So if you take the 200,000,000,000,000, that is the size of the arbitrage, and then that's an enormous amount of money. So you can look at the treasury companies as one of the vehicles to arbitrage that future because they've got you know, while Bitcoin's going up, they can bring forward corporate capital mechanisms and buy that at a discount, and their actions are also applying pressure to Bitcoin, probably bring that period forward.

所以这某种程度上加速了比特币化进程。从这个角度看，我认为它具有很强的可扩展性。你可以看到Sailor对此非常从容——他每年举办会议，试图鼓励人们并提供操作指南，解释他使用的会计准则。现在随着ETF的出现，企业使用这些工具甚至变得更简单了。但很明显，他并不觉得存在竞争压力，因为对于进行套利的人，有时他们会保持低调，因为他们知道这不太具有可扩展性，否则其他人涌入后机会就会消失。

So it kind of accelerate, you know, Bitcoinization basically. So from that point of view, I think it's very scalable. And you can see that Sailor, you know, was very relaxed about getting he has an annual conference where he tries to encourage people and provide the playbook and explain the accounting rules he used. It's got a bit simpler now with us for ETFs for companies to use those even. But, you know, clearly, he's not feeling it's competitive in terms of you know, for people who are doing an arbitrage, sometimes they try and keep it quiet because they know that it's not very scalable, and then other people pile in and it'll disappear.

但在这里，这是一个巨大的错位。基本上就像是本世纪的套利机会。

But here, it's an enormous dislocation. So it's like the arbitrage of the century, basically.

嗯，他拥有58万个比特币，如果大家都涌入推高比特币价格，他确实会受益。是的。

Well, he's got 580,000 Bitcoin, and if everybody jumps in and pushes the price of Bitcoin up, he's Yeah.

但他当时就在关注这个。很好，对吧？我的意思是，我认为存在一个效应，即这个策略某种程度上与你可以持有的MNAV（净资产价值倍数）挂钩。所以如果你有更高的MNAV，比如MNAV是3而不是2，当你出售股票或可转换票据时，每股能获得的比特币增值效果更好。

But he was looking at it. Good. Right? Well, I mean, I think there is an effect, which is that strategy is a bit indexed to the MNAV you can hold. So if you have a higher MNAV, you know, if the MNAV is three rather than two, when you sell shares or sell convertible notes, it makes it more accretive Bitcoin per share Right.

每投入一美元的效果。这部分正是MetaPlanet和OPG的优势所在，它们拥有高MNAV。所以当它们采取企业行动时，无论哪种形式，都更有效。这有点奇怪，因为这某种程度上是自我强化的。你知道，它拥有高MNAV。

Per dollar in. And that's partly where MetaPlanet and OPG have an advantage, which they have on high MNAV. And so when they do a corporate action, whichever version, it's more effective. So it's a little weird because it's kind of sort of self reinforcing. You know, it has a high MNAV.

高MNAV因其行动号召力而有助于保持高MNAV。所以这个因素让人产生怀疑，但他们确实需要基本面来达到高MNAV并赚取它，就像证明其合理性并保持它，你知道，因为它们会下跌然后又会回升。所以，那里确实有基本面的东西。但无论如何，我认为这是巨大的。所以，这就是可扩展性问题。

The high MNAV helps it keep a high MNAV because of the call for action. So that factor is one thing that makes people skeptical, but they do need a fundamental to get it to the high MNAV and earn it, like justify it and keep it, know, because they'll drop and then they'll come back. So, there is something fundamental there. But anyway, think it's enormous. So, that's the scalability question.

另一个是可持续性。你知道，这些公司能否维持它们的收益率？它们能持续做到吗，还是说只会下滑？一个认为它可能下降的理论是，随着它们规模变大，你知道，如果你从非常小的东西开始，它们可以创造50%的回报。从1个比特币开始，你可以买半个比特币，然后它们一下子就获得了50%的回报。

And the other one is sustainable. You know, can these companies maintain their yield? Can they keep doing it, or is that just going to droop? And one theory for why it might fall is as they get bigger, you know, if you if you take something very small, they can create a 50% return. Start with 1 Bitcoin, you can buy half a Bitcoin, and now they have 50% return in one shot.

对吧？很容易。所以，这是真的。但一旦它开始运作，并且达到1亿，而在Sailor的情况下要超过1000亿，我认为它们的融资能力在某种程度上与它们的规模成正比，对吧？有点像债务比率，对吧？

Right? Easy. So So, that's true. But once it gets going and it's 100,000,000 versus getting over 100,000,000,000 in Sailor's case, have I think their ability to raise is somewhat scalable with their size, right? Sort of the debt ratio, right?

如果它们都目标设定1.3的债务比率，1亿规模的公司可以融资3000万，而1000亿规模的公司可以融资300亿。而Sailor正在这样做。你知道，他正在以更大的金额和更大的块引入资金。而且，你知道，我想另一个问题是，它们是否会开始耗尽债券市场上的套利玩家，也就是竞争？对吧？

If they're both targeting a 1.3 debt ratio, 100,000,000 guys, they can raise 30,000,000, and 100,000,000,000 can raise 30,000,000,000. And Sailor is doing it. You know, he is bringing in larger amounts of money in bigger chunks. And, you know, I guess the other question is, like, do they start to exhaust the arbitrage players on the bond market, the competition? Right?

但那些市场非常大。是的。而且可转换债券对那些交易者来说极具吸引力。它们是市场上对于他们的策略来说最好的上涨潜力和最好的波动性产品。所以我认为最终，你知道，如果它开始在那个市场中变得重要，你知道，人们正在寻找收益。

But those markets are very big. Yeah. And the convertibles are extremely attractive for those traders. They're the best upside, the best volatility product on the market for their strategy. So I think ultimately, you know, if if it starts to become significant in that market, you know, people are looking for yield.

他们会从其他不太感兴趣的东西，比如国债或固定收益或其他什么，重新分配资金。对吧？是的。所以我认为这使其更具可扩展性，但它可能，你知道，可能使其变得更大更难一些。但做大也有一些优势，那就是它们可以进入股票指数。嗯。

They'll reallocate from something else that's not very interested in the treasuries or fixed income or something. Right? Yeah. So I think that makes it more scalable, but it could, you know, it could cause it to be a bit harder to go big. But there are some advantage being big, which is they get into stock indexes Mhmm.

那受益于被动资金流，人们定期储蓄的钱被投入，比如，指数基金。对。所以我认为SAILAR，你知道，和MicroStrategy一样，它们已经在其中一个指数里了，但还有另一个目标即将到来，现在它们需要达到一定数量的盈利季度和规模，而它们正在接近。所以它们可能很快就会进入。

That benefit from passive flows of people making regular savings that get dropped into, like, an index fund. Right. So I think SAILAR is you know, with MicroStrategy, they're in one of those index, but there's another target coming up, which now they need a certain number of quarters of profitability and size, and they're getting there. So they may get into it soon.

嗯，我的意思是，就像我说的，这是当下最令人着迷的事情。我热爱学习新事物和新术语。让我们来总结一下，谈谈潜在风险，因为这种商业模式本质上依赖杠杆来增长。嗯。当然，杠杆是一把双刃剑，尤其是在比特币世界里，它的波动性极大，无论上涨还是下跌。

Well, let's I mean, like I said, this is the most fascinating thing going right now. I love this learning new things and new terminologies. Let's let's let's wrap this up and talk about the potential for risk because inherently, this business model relies on leverage to to grow. Mhmm. And, of course, leverage is that double edged sword, especially in a Bitcoin world where it's extremely volatile both to the upside and the downside.

所以为了在这种策略中取得好成绩，我必须使用杠杆，这是第一点。其次，有些人天生就会做得过火。再加上这是一种波动性资产，那么你是如何看待其中的风险面的？

So in order to do good in this strategy, I have to use leverage, and so that's number one. And then some people are naturally always gonna take it too far, number two. And then on top of a volatile asset, so how are you looking at that, the risk side of it?

是的。我的意思是，这实际上取决于他们采用哪种方法。你可以看看MicroStrategy。他们相当透明，表示自己还在学习。明白吗？

Yeah. I mean, it's effectively, it depends which approach they're using. So you can see MicroStrategy. They're quite transparent that they're learning. You know?

所以他们从一种策略开始。当他们起步时，他们动用了自己的资金。首先，他们进行了股票回购，这样不相信公司的人可以离开，他们以溢价回购了股票。大多数人留了下来。他们用现金购买了第一批比特币，然后现金就用得差不多了，对吧？

So they start with one strategy. So when they started, they used their treasury. I mean, firstly, they did a share buyback offer so that people didn't believe in it could leave, so they bought them back at premium. Most people stayed. They bought their first slug of Bitcoin with cash and then they ran out of cash, plus or minus, right?

接下来他们做的是发行公司债券。这是一家历史悠久、收入稳定的公司，所以他们有信用评级来发行大额公司债券。他们设定了债务比率，因此在第一次熊市中表现得相当激进。价格下跌了，他们又继续加码，一次又一次。

And so the next thing they did is took a corporate bond. It's a long running company with steady revenue, so they had a credit rating to bring in a big corporate bond. They put up a debt ratio, and so they were quite aggressive into their first bear market. And the price fell. They did more, more, more, more.

对吧？结果他们做过头了。所以我回去研究了一下。虽然我在那个熊市期间也买了一些，但我回顾了他们当时的债务与持有比特币的净资产之比，连续五个月债务都超过了比特币的价值。如果这是在交易所的杠杆头寸，他们早就被清算了。

Right? And they ended they overcooked it. So, you know, I went back and looked at it. Now I bought some of it in that bear market period, but I went back and looked at it in terms of how much debt they'd had versus the net asset holding the Bitcoin, and the debt got larger than the Bitcoin for five months in a row. So if that was a leveraged position on exchange, they would be liquidated.

没错。但当时这并不是直接可追加保证金的。他们有股权缓冲，有充足的收入支付利息。所以他们就这么挺过来了。他们在战术上做了一件有趣的事，就是在最后阶段从Solargate获得了一笔2亿美元的比特币抵押贷款。

Right. So now they it wasn't, you know, directly margin callable. They had the equity cushion, had plenty of revenues paid the the the I mean, the interest on it. So they just, you know, plowed through it. They did something tactically interesting, which is they had at the tail end of it, like, a 200,000,000 collateralized Bitcoin loan from Solargate.

好的。Silvergate在市场上开始遭受损失，他们急需流动性。所以他们实际上以30%的折扣回购了自己的债务。是的，所以这招效果不错。

Okay. And Silvergate started to suffer in the market, and they needed liquidity fast. So they actually bought back their own debt, like a 30% discount of Silvergate. Yeah. So that worked out well.

是的。但总的来说，你可以看到他们从中吸取了教训，对吧？因为他们现在正瞄准一个保守的杠杆比率。他们还清理了可赎回性。你知道吗？

Yeah. But generally speaking, you can see that they've learned from it, right? Because now they are targeting a conservative leverage ratio. And they also cleaned up the callability. You know?

所以这并不直接对比特币构成压力。没错。他们重组了事务，并且拥有谈判能力来做到这一点。所以现在处于更安全的位置。而且

So there's no direct lean on the Bitcoin. Right. It's restructured things, and they had, you know, the negotiating power to to do that. So it's in a safer position. And

但他们能做到这一点是因为他们的身份。但是那些新进入者呢？

But they're able to do that because of who they are. But what about all the new entrants that

嗯，这是个很好的问题。你知道，存在潜在风险，一些新进入者可能会为了追赶或过于狂热而过度推进，堆积大量直接债务，然后在熊市中难以偿还，导致杠杆率过高。有趣的是，其中一些，比如两家净资产价值很高的公司，几乎没有债务。Metaplanet几乎没有债务，而OPG有债务，但那是基于比特币的债务。所以如果比特币价格下跌，债务也会缩减。

are Well, that's a very good question. So, you know, there is a potential risk that some new entrants push it too far in, like, an attempt to catch up or, you know, getting a bit too exuberant and pile on straight debt, but then they have difficulty servicing in a bear market where it gets too high leverage. Now some of them, like two of the ones that have a very high net NAV actually have almost no debt, interestingly. So Metaplanet has almost no debt, and OPG has debt, but it's Bitcoin basis debt. So the debt should if Bitcoin price falls, debt shrinks.

因此永远不会陷入偿还能力的偿付问题。但是，是的，在熊市中你可能会看到一些人建立了某种过于狂热的直接债务结构，可能会出现问题。所以，我认为风险点之一是人们看着大公司说，如果MicroStrategy在市场上卖出50万比特币，就会产生债务。我不认为这会发生，因为债务比率很低，他们有很多手段可以操作，而且很多债务是可转换的。所以当达到溢价时，他们就会转换。

And so never get into a kind of solvency issue with the ability to repay. But, yeah, you might see that in a bear market that some people have made some kind of overexuberant straight debt structures that could, you know? So, I think one of the risk points is people looking at the big ones and saying, Well, if MicroStrategy sold like 500,000 bickering in the market, it's, well, create a debt. I don't think that's happening because, you know, the debt ratio is low, and they've got a lot of levers to play with, and a lot of the debt they have is convertible. And so, they're converting it as it reaches premium.

所以，当市场转向时，剩余的债务最终应该是可管理的。我认为另一点是，比特币的平均入场价是6.5万，逐渐攀升至7万。所以从11万的水平来看，他们还有一些空间。而底价，即200周移动平均线，也在47缓慢上升，很快将达到50。

So, the debt that's left over when the market turns, presumably will eventually, is manageable. And I think the other thing is, you know, the average entry price in Bitcoin is 65, so gradually creeping up to 70. So they some headroom from the 110 level. And the floor price, this two hundred week moving average, is also creeping up at 47. Soon enough, will be 50.

如果这是一个迹象，嗯，市场可能不会跌破那种区域，这其中有安全保障。但历史未必能预测未来，对吧？如果这种现象变得严重，你知道，它可能会以负面方式影响市场动态，我猜。是的。是的。

If that's an indication of, well, the market probably won't fall below that kind of region, there's a safety in that. But history doesn't necessarily predict the future also, right? And if the phenomenon gets big, you know, it could contribute to the market dynamics in a negative way, I guess. Yeah. Yeah.

所以，你知道，你只是希望那些承担风险失败的人在他们规模较小时这样做，这样就不会对市场产生影响。或者我想到的另一件事是，你知道，一家更大的战略公司可能会收购他们，如果这有意义的话。

So, you know, you just hope that the people that take the risk that goes wrong do it when they're small so they don't have an impact on the market. Or the other thing that occurs to me is that, you know, a bigger strategy company could buy them, you know, if it makes sense.

是的。好的。最后一个问题。你认为五年后，也就是2030年，比特币和这种比特币国库策略会处于什么位置？

Yeah. Alright. Last question. Where do you see Bitcoin and this Bitcoin treasury strategy sort of being in five years from now in in 2030?

嗯，我认为，你知道，因为我之前谈到这种方法可扩展性，我认为最终它会吸引一些大市值公司，因为，你知道，确实存在保护股东利益的受托责任，其中一些公司坐拥十亿美元或可能更多的现金，对吧？100亿或什么的。妈的。数十亿。是的。

Well, I think, you know, because what I was saying about the scalability of the approach, I think eventually it will pull in some of the larger cap companies because, you know, there is literally a fiduciary obligation to protect the shareholders' interests, and some of these companies are sitting on like a billion dollars' bus of cash or probably more, right? 10,000,000,000 or something. Asshole. Billions. Yeah.

对吧？所以，你知道，现实地说，考虑到主要经济体的货币扩张和债务比率，我们可能正面临着一二十年甚至更长时间的金融压制，这意味着通胀率会高于利率。所以，如果他们持有100亿或更多的美国国债，实际上就是在亏钱。对吧？这不是...我的意思是，沃伦·巴菲特会说现金为王，他正在等待市场机会。

Right? And so, you know, realistically, with the MT monetary expansion and the debt ratio in the major economies, we're probably facing, you know, a decade or two of financial repression, which means that the inflation rate is higher than the interest rate. And so if, you know, they have 10,000,000,000 or more sitting in US treasuries, they're just straight up losing it. Right? And so that's not, you know I mean, Warren Buffett would say cash is king, and he's waiting for an opportunity in the market.

他很擅长等待市场崩盘然后去买入资产。是的。但与此同时，他为什么要在现金上亏钱呢？等等。显然有更好的替代选择。

And he's good at, like, waiting for the bomb on the market to go buy stuff. Yeah. But in the meantime, like, why is he losing money on cash? Wait. There's obvious alternatives.

所以我认为，一些更专注于技术、管理层更年轻的公司可能会开始意识到这一点。你已经看到微软和苹果有几起股东要求董事会投票的案例。虽然没有通过，但问题已经提出来了。而且那些提出要求的都是比特币支持者。你懂吧？

So I think, you know, some of the sort of more technology focused companies with younger management will probably start to get there. You've seen a couple of shareholder requested votes for boards with Microsoft and Apple. It didn't get passed, but the question is coming in. And they're all Bitcoiners in there. You know?

我认识一些微软的高层人士，比如顶级管理层或董事会成员，他们本身就是比特币支持者，对吧？所以周围有人了解比特币，已经接触比特币一段时间了，会尝试向他们解释。

I know somebody who's I know some extra Microsoft people, people on the top management or on a board who are Bitcoiners, right? And so there are people around them that understand Bitcoin, have been in Bitcoin for a while who would, you know, try to explain it to them.

是的，当然。

Yeah. For sure.

而且他们不需要把所有现金都投入进去。

And they don't have to, like, put all their cash in it.

他们看到Strategy的做法后就会想：嘿，我们或许也该做类似的事情。

They see what strategy is doing, so they're like, Hey, we should probably do something similar.

没错。所以我认为他们错过了机会，而且说实话，参与企业国库策略的公司如此之少实在令人惊讶——你能看到Sailor试图领舞，对吧？就像舞池现象中的帕金森舞蹈定律。

Yeah. Yeah. So I think they they're missing a trick, and, you know, it's it's actually kinda surprising how few companies participated in the treasury company play in that you could see that Sailor was, you know, trying to lead the dance, right? You know, this kind of dance floor phenomenon. Well, Parkinson's dancing.

最终所有人都会加入。他现在正站在桥头，就像首航飞行中证明安全性的人一样。是的。

Eventually, everybody joins in. And, you know, he's leaving it. He's out on a bridge. He's on the maiden voyage of the flight to show it's safe. Yep.

这种全然的信念具有传染性。所以我觉得这太棒了，期待看到更多企业加入。是的。

Full conviction. It's contagious. So I'm like, this is great. Let's, you know, let's see some more. Yeah.

而且他在举办这些会议，但没有人效仿。

And he's running the conferences, and nobody's copying it.

我是说，他们正在来的路上。

I mean, they're coming.

他们现在来了，但都是从较小的、创新的一端开始。不过，是的，我想有一些，有几家上市公司在做这件事。我是说，就在会议期间，有一家特朗普的媒体公司对吧？带着一个转换者。你知道吗？

They're coming now, but they're starting from the smaller end, like the innovative end. But, yeah, I mean, I guess there are some, a few public companies doing it. I mean, just during the conference, there was one of the Trump media companies Right. With a convert. You know?

是的。

Yeah.

是的。我是说，用舞池来比喻，就是一个人独自跳了相当长一段时间，然后两个人

Yeah. I mean, to to the dance floor analogy, I mean, the one person dances alone for quite a while and then two