量子计算：游戏开始

来自麦肯锡的我们，祝您节日快乐。

Happy holidays to you from us here at McKinsey.

今天，我们带来的是2025年最受欢迎的访谈之一。

Today, we've got one of our most popular interviews from 2025.

我们将在1月8日带着新节目回归。

We'll be back January 8 with new episodes.

这是麦肯锡播客，帮助您理解当今世界最严峻的商业挑战。

This is the McKinsey podcast, where we help you make sense out of our world's toughest business challenges.

欢迎收听本节目。

Welcome to the show.

我是露西娅·拉希利。

I'm Lucia Rahily.

我是罗贝塔·法萨罗。

And I'm Roberta Fasaro.

大家好。

Hey, everyone.

今天，我们有一个非常精彩的环节，将与麦肯锡合伙人迈克尔·博戈博维奇探讨量子计算。

Today, we've got a really cool segment coming up on quantum computing with McKinsey partner Michael Bogobovich.

但在进入这个话题之前，我们先聊聊麦肯锡官网上的最新动态，关于关税的更多内容。

But before we go there, let's talk about what's new on mckinsey.com, more on tariffs.

我们刚刚发布了一篇文章，阐述了建立一个神经中枢的重要性，它能帮助企业全面且实时地应对挑战。

We just published an article about the importance of establishing a nerve center that can help companies respond comprehensively and in real time.

是的。

Yeah.

从地缘政治角度来看，我们推出了一款名为‘全球贸易探索者’的互动工具。

And geo politically speaking, we have an interactive called the Global Trade Explorer.

它追踪了每个世界经济体的主要贸易伙伴，并清晰展示了1995年至2023年间贸易伙伴的变化。

It tracks the top trading partners for each world economy, and it shows very clearly how trading partners have changed between 1995 and 2023.

非常发人深省。

Very eye opening.

您可以在我们的网站和节目笔记中找到这两项研究成果。

You can find both of these pieces of research on our site and in our show notes.

好的。

Alright.

让我们听听麦肯锡合伙人迈克尔·博戈维奇（Michael Bogobovich）的分享，他大家都叫他BOGO。

Let's hear from McKinsey partner, Michael Bogobovich, who goes by BOGO.

请继续关注，因为在第二部分，我们将听到麦肯锡资深合伙人迈克尔·布西（Michael Busi）关于首席执行官如何最好地引领公司完成转型的见解。

And stick around because in our second segment, we hear from McKinsey senior partner Michael Busi about how CEOs can best lead their companies through transformations.

博戈，很高兴你能来聊聊量子计算。

Bogo, really glad to have you on to talk about quantum.

谢谢你问到这个话题。

Thank you for asking about it.

老实说，这是一个非常有趣的话题，我已经研究了几年了。

Honestly, it's a super interesting topic, and I've been working on it for a few years now.

几十年来，人们一直说量子计算距离实现还有五到十年。

It's been something that's been five to ten years away for, you know, many, many decades.

但现在看来，它实际上已经近在三到五年之内了。

But now it feels like it's really much more like three to five years away.

所以现在讨论这个问题正当时，因为已经出现了大量公告，许多行业巨头纷纷加入，因为我们正处在这个行业的关键转折点。

So it's a really good time to be having this discussion, and there are so many announcements that have come out, so many big players that have thrown their hat in the ring just because we're at this real inflection point in the industry.

是的。

Yeah.

那我们来谈谈这个转折点吧。

So let's talk about that inflection point.

也谢谢你参与。

And also, thanks for joining.

非常感谢。

Thank you so much.

谢谢你邀请我。

Thank you for having me.

量子计算长期以来一直是计算领域的一个术语，但有时也让人觉得难以理解。

Quantum is an area of computing that has long been part of the lexicon of computing, but it can also feel a little bit difficult to grok.

帮我们稍微揭开一下量子的神秘面纱。

Help us demystify quantum a little bit.

什么是量子计算，它与经典计算有何不同？

What is quantum computing, and how is it different from classical computing?

当然。

Absolutely.

顺便说一下，我很喜欢你用‘grok’这个词。

By the way, I love that use of the word grok.

量子计算机与传统数字计算机的不同之处在于，传统数字计算机一直局限于一和零的范围。

The way that quantum computers are different from kind of traditional digital computers, traditional digital computers have really operated in the realm of ones and zeros.

而量子计算则极大地拓展了计算能力，使我们能够以过去不可能的方式进行计算。

And what quantum computing does is it really opens that up to a much wider ability to calculate in very different ways than we've had possible.

我们用单个原子取代了计算机芯片，并利用每个原子的量子特性来充当整个处理器。

We're replacing computer chips with individual atoms, and we're using the quantum properties of each of those individual atoms to act as an entire processor.

它的工作方式也不同，因为我们实际上可以并行计算，而不是串行处理。

It also works differently because we can actually compute rather than doing things serially.

我们可以同时计算数十亿种情景，并得出答案。

We can calculate hundreds of thousands of millions of scenarios all at the same time and come to an answer.

哇。

Wow.

那么，你认为是否存在这样一个世界，量子计算机真的会取代我们普通的笔记本电脑？

So do you think there's a world where quantum computers will actually replace, you know, our typical laptop?

所以，量子计算机在某些类型的问题上非常擅长。

So So quantum computers are really good at certain types of problems.

它们可能不会取代市面上每一种计算机。

They're probably not gonna replace every single type of computer out there.

它们不会取代你的个人电脑，也不会取代所有现有的服务器。

They're not gonna replace your PC, and they're not gonna replace all the servers out there.

它的作用将是作为附加设备，就像你的显卡一样，用于解决某些特定、非常复杂且通常非常重要的问题。

What it will do is it'll act as an add on in the same way as your graphics card does to solve very specific, very challenging, and often very important problems.

那么是哪些类型的问题呢？

So what kind of problems?

比如，我该去哪里？

So things like, where do I need to go?

我该怎么找到最佳路线？

How do I find the best route?

我该怎么装载一架货运飞机呢？

How do I, you know, pack up a cargo plane?

或者我该如何优化我的投资组合？

Or how do I go and optimize my financial portfolio?

它在处理这些非常具有挑战性的问题时，比其他任何技术都要快得多。

It's really good at doing those types of really challenging problems much faster than anything else.

它还能处理其他类型的问题，比如模拟。

It also can do other problems like simulation.

材料科学是一个非常重要的领域，我们正在研究药物如何与不同的病毒和细胞相互作用，以及它的影响和效果。

So material science is a really big deal where we're looking at things like how does a drug impact and work with different viruses and different cells and what are the impacts and effects of it.

预测这些结果对制药公司以及受益于药物加速上市的患者都具有巨大价值。

Predicting that is hugely valuable not only to the pharmaceutical companies but to the people that will be benefiting from these drugs being accelerated through the pipeline.

我们还可以研究电池材料科学，这是另一个至关重要的领域，因为电池效率的每一丝提升，都能为所有使用电池的组织带来巨大价值，而基本上世界上每一个人都在使用电池。

We can also look at things like material sciences for batteries as another huge area where every single slight gain in efficiency of a battery can drive huge amounts of value for every single organization that uses batteries, which basically is every single human being on this world.

所以，能否给我们一个具体的例子，说明量子计算的潜在威力？

So give us kind of a concrete example, if you would, of the potential power of quantum.

与传统计算相比，量子计算有多强大？

So relative to conventional computing, how powerful is quantum?

另一个目前备受关注的问题是信息安全。

Also, one problem that's been very top of mind right now is just around information security.

人们一直在大力讨论这个问题，我相信你读过很多相关的文章。

People have been discussing this heavily, and I'm sure you've read a lot of articles about this.

但即将到来的‘Q日’将彻底破解加密技术。

But there's this entire concept of Q Day coming up, which will, you know, break encryption.

目前最普遍的标准之一是2048位加密。

One of the most common standards out there are, say, twenty forty eight.

破解这种加密大约需要三百万亿年，这比宇宙的寿命还要长。

To crack that will take about three hundred trillion years, which is, you know, longer than the lifetime of the universe.

所以这是一件非常重要的事情。

So it's a pretty big deal.

量子计算机预计在几年内，最多五年内，就能在几小时内破解它。

Quantum computers, the expectation is within, you know, a few years, maybe as far out as five years, they'll be able to crack it within a few hours.

这是因为它的运作方式 fundamentally 不同。

And that's because it operates in such a fundamentally different way.

一旦我们到达2040年，就会出现‘现在窃取，日后解密’的真正威胁，如果只是窃取你昨天的邮件，这倒不是什么大问题。

Once we get to twenty forty there's a real danger of things like a steal now, decrypt later attacks, which is not that big of a deal if we're stealing, like, your emails from yesterday.

三年后，可能也没什么特别重大的影响。

Probably nothing too major three years out.

但如果我们考虑的是你的健康信息或核潜艇的设计，那就变得非常严重了，这也是为什么量子技术如今如此重要。

But if we're looking at things like your health information or the designs for a nuclear submarine, that becomes a really big deal, and that's one of the reasons why quantum is really impactful right now.

我们已经谈论量子很久了。

So we have been talking about quantum for eons.

这让我想起爱因斯坦那句著名的话，当年在大学里我觉得这句话非常浪漫，他说量子纠缠是‘鬼魅般的超距作用’。

It feels like Einstein had that famous line, which I thought was very sort of romantic in college, where he described quantum entanglement as spooky action at a distance.

我肯定把这简化得太过分了，但你有一个离子。

I'm sure I'm oversimplifying this to an incredible degree, but you have this ion.

对吧？

Right?

根据描述，如果你在地球上抛一枚硬币，那枚与之纠缠的硬币，即使在数十亿英里之外，也会同时翻转。

The way it was described, if you flip a coin on Earth, the coin will also flip that is entangled with that coin, you know, a bazillion miles away.

尽管相隔如此遥远，它们仍保持着某种纠缠状态，这真是一个浪漫的想法。

They retain some kind of entanglement despite this incredible distance, And it's such a romantic idea.

对吧？

Right?

某样东西即使与你分离，仍以某种奇特的方式与你相连。

That something could be separated from you and still be connected in some bizarre way.

我不清楚这在实际应用和用例中会如何体现。

I don't know how that plays out in terms of the actual use cases and application.

它在加密领域确实有应用。

It does play out in the encryption space.

对吧？

Right?

所以问题是，这种现象发生的原因是你实际上无法以超过光速的速度传递关于它的信息，但理论上，这种现象是瞬间发生的，比光速还快。

So the question is, like, is this thing that's happening because you can't actually send information about it faster than the speed of light, but theoretically, this happens instantly, like, faster than the speed of light.

所以，这是否真的违反了某种规则？

So it's like, is that breaking actually?

这怎么可能？

How is it possible?

就像，怎么可能

Like, how is

这怎么可能？

it possible?

这太疯狂了。

It's crazy.

所以人们会问，这会破坏规则吗？

So so people are like, well, does that break it?

而事实上，因为你无法经典地回传信息，所以它并没有违反光速限制，因为你必须等到另一边确认，才能确定你得到的结果100%正确。

And, well, it's like, because you can't actually send information classically back, it doesn't break the speed of light rules because you can't confirm that what you got was a 100% the right answer until you go the other way.

所以它在加密方面非常有用，虽然在传输信息方面不是那么理想，但我们确实通过贝尔定理和其他一些理论，非常确定这不是某种偶然的第三方因素导致的，它们确实是真正纠缠的。

So it's very useful in encryption, not as good in transmitting information, but we have actually, you know, figured out using, like, Bell's theorem and a few other things that we are very, very certain that it's not some third factor that's just coincidental that you're getting this thing, that they are actually truly entangled.

一旦你测量其中一个，另一个就会坍缩。

And as soon as you measure one, the other one collapses.

这太疯狂了。

And it's just crazy.

这令人难以置信。

It's mind blowing.

这太酷了。

That is so cool.

为什么量子的实际应用如此难以实现？

Why have practical applications of quantum been so difficult to implement?

我认为这主要是由其基本性质决定的。

Well, I think it's really just the fundamental nature of this.

我们仍在学习中。

We're still learning.

计算机花了数十年才开始普及。

It took computers many, many decades before they started becoming mainstream.

在量子领域，由于我们处理的是微小粒子，直接与它们互动非常困难，但其他事物与它们互动却非常容易。

What we're seeing in the quantum space, because we're dealing with tiny particles, it's very hard to interact with them directly, but it is actually very easy for other things to interact with them.

我们现在实际上是将数百个原子组合在一起。

What we're actually doing is now we're teaming up hundreds of these atoms together.

我们不再使用物理量子位，而是转向逻辑量子位，准确率已提升了100倍、1000倍甚至10000倍。

Instead of a physical qubit, we're now going to logical qubits, and we've seen 100 x, thousand x, 10,000 x fold increases in accuracy.

因此，我们现在正处于看到功能性计算机的阶段，但这就是我们一直以来所应对的状况。

And so we're now at a point where we are seeing functional computers, but that's really what we've been dealing with.

只是计算机本身的规模太小，错误率又太高。

It's just the scale of the computers themselves have been too small, and the error rates have been too high.

在过去的几个月里，我们看到了三家所谓的超大规模企业——微软、亚马逊和谷歌——都宣布了在开发其专有量子芯片方面取得重大进展，对吧？

So in the past several months, we've seen three of what we call the hyperscalers, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, all announce big steps forward, right, in the development of their proprietary quantum chips.

这些进展对量子技术的发展状态意味着什么？

What do these advances mean for the state of quantum development?

在我看来，这些公告表明我们正在迅速迈向大规模量子计算，这是一个巨大的信心信号。

Well, so the way I see it is these announcements are a big confidence indicator in how quickly we're coming to quantum computing at scale.

谷歌、亚马逊和微软多年来一直在持续研究这个问题。

Google, Amazon, Microsoft have all been working on this for years and years and years.

因此，随着这场量子竞赛加剧，领导者们是否应该为加速的时间表做好准备？

And should leaders be preparing for an accelerated timeline as a result of this quantum race intensifying?

绝对如此。

Absolutely.

我认为是的。

I think so.

我认为我们仍然非常依赖一些基础研究，但过去三四年涌入的资金量确实巨大。

I think we're still very dependent on some fundamental research, but just the amount of funding pouring in over the last three or four years.

大约四年前，资金投入增长了百倍。

About four years ago, the number skyrocketed by a 100 x.

我们从最初数千万美元的投资，增长到数亿美元，如今每年的投资已达到数十亿甚至上百亿美元。

We went from, you know, tens of millions of dollars being invested, hundreds of millions of dollars being invested to now billions and billions of dollars every single year.

你刚才开头提到过这一点，但我们再回来谈谈。

You talked a little bit about this at the top, but let's return to it.

让我们聊聊量子计算的实际应用场景。

Let's talk about use cases, practical applications of quantum.

我们最近发布了一些研究，指出金融和电信是目前对量子技术参与度最高的两个行业。

We recently published some research highlighting finance and telecommunications as the sectors most engaged with quantum thus far.

这些行业能从中获得什么？

What do those sectors stand to gain?

我先从金融说起，因为这个领域相对更直接一些。

I'll start off with finance because I think that one is a lot more straightforward.

你看。

Look.

量子计算非常擅长处理嘈杂的信息，并帮助进行优化和预测。

Quantum is really good at dealing with noisy information and helping to optimize and forecast well.

因此，在金融领域，投资组合优化是一个巨大的应用方向，它需要充分理解你的风险和约束条件，从而为特定的投资策略构建最优投资组合。

So portfolio optimization in the finance space is a huge area, you know, making sure that it understands your risks and your constraints and is able to then build a portfolio for whatever particular investment strategy exists.

我认为电信是另一个领域，但它处于一个完全不同的世界。

I think telecommunications is an another one, but it is in a very different world.

与量子计算密切相关的是量子传感和量子网络，它们利用相同的基础科学来构建新技术和新能力。

So adjacent to quantum computing are things like quantum sensing and quantum networks, which are using the same fundamental science in order to build out new technologies and new capabilities.

对于电信业来说，量子加密尤其有趣，因为它能提供真正安全的通信方式。

For telecom, quantum encryption is particularly interesting because it can provide a truly secure way of communications.

量子的工作原理是将两个原子纠缠在一起。

The way that quantum works is you entangle two atoms.

它们能够相互交流，简单来说就是这样。

They're able to talk to each other, you know, just very simply put.

这意味着，如果有人试图窃听，连接就会被破坏，而且这种破坏无法被复制。

And what that means is if you have somebody that tries to listen in and eavesdrop, it actually breaks the connection in a way that they can't replicate.

因此，你实际上可以利用基础物理的特性来保障通信安全。

So you're actually able to use the properties of fundamental physics to secure your communications.

即使最近取得了进展，但正如我理解的那样，量子的广泛应用仍需数年时间。

Even with recent advances, widespread quantum usage remains, if I'm understanding you correctly, years away.

公司现在应该做些什么或考虑些什么，以应对量子技术可能带来的影响？

Anything companies should be doing now or thinking about now to get ready for the potential impact of quantum?

当然。

Absolutely.

我认为首先是安全问题。

I think the first one is just around security.

如果你还没有使用量子安全算法——虽然已经有一些公开的算法了——那么这应该是你首先开始的地方。

You know, this is a place where if you're not using quantum safe algorithms and there are some that are published, this is the first place to start.

如果你的数据现在就被截获，几年后又被解密，那将是一个真正的重大潜在风险。

If your data is getting captured now and then decrypted in a few years, that's a real major potential risk.

许多大型企业已经在其通信系统中内置了量子安全算法。

And a lot of the big players have already built in quantum safe algorithms into their chats.

基本上，在数据传输的关键领域，量子安全算法已经得到了应用。

Basically, major place where data is in transit, there are already quantum safe algorithms in that space.

而数据处于静态存储状态的场景，可能是接下来人们重点关注的领域。

Places where data is at rest, that's probably the next big area where people are focusing on.

第二点是关于人才和战略。

The second big piece is just around talent and strategy.

能够开发量子算法、运行量子计算机、维护相关环境的人才非常稀缺。

The talent needed to create quantum algorithms, run quantum computers, to maintain the environment is tiny.

你知道吗？

You know?

目前全球只有数千人具备这种能力，而培养一名能从事这类工作的博士需要多年时间，这仍然是一个全新的领域。

It's thousands of people in the world right now, and it takes years and years to train up a PhD to do this type of work, and it's really new.

所以，如果你真的想在三年内参与其中，现在就必须考虑如何入场，并着手引进一两位人才，以便三年后能在这一领域立足。

So if you really wanna be involved in this in three years, you need to think about the right to play now, and think about the one or two people that you're getting in so that you can play in the sector in three years.

否则，我们将看到类似开发者和数据科学家所经历的情况，但情况会恶化十倍——这些人才的成本和稀缺性将使大多数组织完全无法承受。

Otherwise, we're gonna see what happened with developers, with data scientists, except tenfold worse, where the cost of these people and the availability is just massively unaffordable for most organizations.

我们所讨论的价值规模是，跨所有行业，到2035年将达到一到两万亿美元的价值。

And the amount of value that we're talking is, like, you know, across all industries, somewhere between one to two trillion dollars of value by 2035.

因此，这是一个巨大且极具价值的领域，对某些公司而言，这将成为一项绝对的强制性任务。

So it's massive and valuable, and for some companies, will be an absolute mandate.

你知道吗，我们之前讨论过的所有金融机构、银行，都已经下了入场券，开始在这个领域开展工作。

You know, all the financial organizations, banks that we've talked about, they've already put their right to play card down and started to work on this space.

我想说的最后一点是，参与你当地的创新中心。

The last piece that I would say is get involved with your local innovation hubs.

大多数地区附近都出现了这些新兴的创新中心，它们是大学、私营公司和公共资金的结合体。

Most areas somewhere nearby have these new hubs that are coming up, which are a combination of universities, private companies, and public funding.

它们非常需要私营企业加入，帮助它们理解应用场景，测试技术，并共同学习。

And they really need private companies to come in and help them understand use cases and test the technology and work and learn.

但这是作为入门途径进入这一领域的最具成本效益和效率的方式。

But that's probably the most cost effective and efficient way to get into this space as an entry point.

你真幸运。

You're so lucky.

这是一个如此有趣且具有革命性的话题。

This is such an interesting and sort of revolutionary.

你知道，这是一个令人难以置信的领域，值得投身其中。

You know, it's just like an incredible space to be working in.

八九年前，有人向我推荐了这位叫卡洛·罗韦利的人。

Someone turned me on to this guy called Carlo Rovelli, like, eight or nine years ago.

他是一位意大利科学家。

He's an Italian scientist.

他写了一些面向大众、非科学读者的量子物理书籍。

He writes books about quantum for more public consumption, like the non scientific audience.

你最初是怎么接触到量子物理的？

How did you hear about quantum in the first place?

我是通过一位朋友了解到量子物理的，他向我推荐了卡洛·罗韦利，罗韦利曾在麻省理工学院同时攻读物理学和计算机科学的博士学位。

I knew about quantum through this, like, friend of mine who turned me on to Carlo Rovelli, who did his doctorate at MIT jointly in physics and computer science.

他常跟我讲，谷歌有那些巨大的冰箱——我是这么理解的，或者说是这些冷藏区域。

And he would talk about how at Google, they had these massive refrigerators is how I would think of them, or these like refrigerated areas.

你知道，所有东西都必须被完美地控制和管理，而他说，这最终可能什么都不是，但却是物理学中最酷的领域。

You know, everything had to be like perfectly controlled and managed and what and he was like, it will never amount to anything, but it's the coolest field there is in physics.

IBM 等公司发布的量子计算机图片，首先看起来简直美极了。

Some of the pictures of, like, the quantum computers that, like, IBM and others have released are just, first off, absolutely gorgeous.

但那些房间里温度接近绝对零度。

But it is also, like, near absolute zero in those rooms.

比如，零下273摄氏度。

Like, negative 273 degrees Celsius.

太疯狂了。

It's crazy.

你会为了客户的工作进入那些地方吗？

Do you go in there for your client work?

你会进去看看它们吗？

Do you go in there and look at them or no?

不是为了客户的工作，但我们参观过好几个不同的站点。

Not for client work, but, like, we visited a bunch of the different sites.

这种工程投入的规模简直令人难以置信。

Like, the amount of engineering that goes into this is just absolutely incredible.

他们实际上是在让单个原子保持静止，然后对其进行通电和纠缠。

They are literally holding individual atoms in stasis and then, like, electrifying and entangling them.

要把单个原子分离出来并使其与其他所有物质完全隔离，这真的非常困难。

That's really difficult to do to, like, just pull out a single atom and then keep it isolated from everything else.

博戈，非常感谢你今天加入我们。

Bogo, thanks so much for joining us today.

非常感谢你们邀请我。

Thank you so much for having me.

这真是一次绝对愉快的体验。

This was an absolute pleasure.

现在让我们听听首席执行官们如何成功引领公司完成转型。

Now let's hear about how CEOs can lead their company successfully through a transformation.

麦肯锡高级合伙人迈克尔·布西与我们的执行编辑兼制作人劳雷尔·莫格伦对话。

McKinsey senior partner, Michael Busey, speaks with our managing editor and producer, Laurel Moglen.

迈克尔，欢迎来到麦肯锡播客。

Michael, welcome to the McKinsey podcast.

非常感谢。

Thank you so much.

转型这个词对不同的人意味着不同的东西。

Transformation is a word that means many things to different people.

就组织而言，我们今天对话中如何定义它？

When it comes to organizations, how are we defining it for our conversation today?

对我们来说，我们称之为大写的T转型，这是一种全组织范围的努力，旨在改变公司的运营方式，以实现卓越的绩效。

For us, what we call it is a capital t transformation, and it's an organization wide effort to change how the company operates to drive outsized performance.

这里的绩效包括财务绩效、运营绩效和组织绩效。

And performance being financial performance, operating performance, organizational performance.

这些全组织范围的努力之所以如此重要，是因为我们都明白，变革很难，但如今由于我们周围世界变化的速度，变革已迫在眉睫。

And the reason why these organization wide efforts are so important is, as we all know, change is tough, but change is now forced upon organizations because of the pace which the world around us is changing.

对吧？

Right?

我有幸在各个不同行业开展这项工作：电信、软件、金融科技、制造业、保险业。

I've had the privilege of doing this across all different types of industries: telecom, software, fintech, manufacturing, insurance.

而最重要的因素是首席执行官的作用。

And the single most important factor is the role of CEO.

对吧？

Right?

这决定了这些举措是否成功。

That is the determination of whether these things are successful.

那么我们来谈谈CEO的这一角色。

So let's talk about that role of the CEO.

在转型期间，CEO uniquely负责做什么？

What is the CEO uniquely responsible for doing during times of transformation?

CEO设定变革的基调、节奏和范围。

The CEO sets the tone, the pace, the scope of the change.

CEO必须解决我们所说的集体行动问题。

CEOs must solve what we consider collective action problems.

对吧？

Right?

集体行动问题是指个人或群体受到某种激励，但由于系统中设定的激励机制，他们永远不会为整体利益最大化。

Collective action problems are where an individual or group is incentivized in one way, and they're never going to optimize for the whole because of the incentives that are set up in the system.

最容易理解的是我所说的预算问题。

The easiest one to conceptualize is what I call the budget problem.

对吧？

Right?

每个组织都会面临这个问题。

Every single organization faces this.

CEO要求：我要10%的改进。

The CEO demands, I want 10% improvements.

业务领导者有充分的动力追求相对于去年的渐进式改进，而不是实现全部潜力。

The business leader has every incentive to go for incremental improvement on last year, but not the full potential.

只有CEO能站出来说：不行。

Only the CEO can solve to say, okay, no.

我们要追求的是全部潜力。

We're gonna go after our full potential.

我再给你举另一个类型的集体行动问题，那就是部落与国家之间的优化冲突。

Let me give you another kind of collective action problem, which is the optimization of the tribe versus the nation.

在组织内部，人们通常与自己每天共事的小团体聚集在一起，自然而然地优先考虑该团体的需求，哪怕这可能会损害整体利益。

Within organizations, folks come together within their small groups and who they operate with every single day, and it becomes natural to prioritize what that group needs potentially at the expense of the whole.

同样，只有CEO才有独特的位置来确保每个人都明白：不，不，不。

Again, the CEO is uniquely positioned to ensure that everybody says, no, no, no.

真正重要的是整个国家，而不是各个小团体的个人诉求。

The nation is what really is important rather than what individual tribes want.

我需要这个组织打破职能壁垒，相互交流、协作、激励和挑战，从而真正实现我们的全部潜力。

And I need this organization to come together cross functionally to engage with each other, collaborate to with each other, to push each other, to challenge each other so that we actually realize our full potential.

这引出了我的下一个问题：这是CEO在凝聚员工的心态。

That leads me to my next question is, this is CEO rallying the employee mindset.

CEO是否有特定的方法来实现这一点？

Are there specific ways a CEO can approach that?

首先，CEO是首席故事讲述者。

First of all is the CEO is really the chief storyteller.

他们是为组织设定愿景的人，帮助组织构建变革的理由。

They are the person who is setting the vision for the organization that is helping the organization to craft a case for change.

我们为什么需要转型？为什么必须改变？为什么需要摆脱当前舒适的状态和运作方式？这些事实依据是什么？

What is the fact based reason why we need to transform, and why do we need to change, and why do we need to adapt from what is comfortable and how we're operating today?

对吧？

Right?

基于这种变革理由，CEO需要鼓励组织中的每个人——每位高管、每位经理、每位一线员工——去思考他们个人的执着所在。

And then from that case for change, the CEO needs to encourage each person in the organization, each executive, each manager, each frontline, to figure out their personal hold on.

我为什么对这件事感到兴奋？

Why am I excited about this?

我为什么被这种变革所激励？

Why am I motivated by this change?

我的个人变革故事是什么？

What's my personal change story?

对吧？

Right?

这种讲故事的方式对于构建叙事至关重要，同时也具有强大的激励作用。

And this type of storytelling is so important for both the narrative, but also to motivate.

我们可以利用员工来传播这个故事。

We can use employees to help radiate the story.

你能谈谈一线员工吗？

So can you talk a little bit about frontline workers?

最重要的是，每个一线员工都需要理解自己在变革中的角色，以及他们在公司中的职责——他们每天做什么，为公司的成功需要贡献什么。

The most important is that each frontline worker needs to understand their role in the change, their role within the company in terms of what do they do every single day, what do they need to bring for the company to be successful.

有一个故事让我深有共鸣。

There's a story that resonates with me.

在西澳大利亚，他们从地下开采铁矿石。

In Western Australia, they're digging up iron ore from the ground.

在采矿作业中，有一样东西特别让人印象深刻，那就是黏性泥土。

And one of the things that actually sticks within the mining operations is there's a sticky dirt.

如果你是卡车司机，你会尽量多装货。

If you're a truck operator, you're trying to get as much as you can.

但当你遇到这种黏性物质时，它会堵塞整个系统。

But when you hit this sticky substance, it actually is going to gum up the rest of the system.

因此，诺姆，这家公司的操作员，他的每一个激励机制都以某种方式促使他继续前进。

And so Norm, who is an operator at this particular company, every single one of his incentives was in a particular way to actually keep going.

但他意识到自己撞上了黏土，于是说：不行。

And he realized he had hit the sticky dirt, and he said, nope.

我要放慢速度。

I'm gonna slow down.

他不仅放慢了速度，还告诉夜班的一名员工：嘿。

And not only did he slow down, but then he told a person on the night shift, hey.

你也需要放慢速度。

You need to slow down as well.

对吧？

Right?

正是这一举动保护了我们试图建立的链条，尽管他放慢了速度、减少了个人产量，但整体 throughput 却提高了。

And so that one act actually preserved the chain that we were trying to create and actually increased the throughput even though he actually had slowed down and reduced his throughput.

回到CEO层面，他们需要能够将这种理念层层传达下去，让每个人都理解自己的角色，清晰地阐述我们作为组织想要实现的愿景。

And, back to the CEO needs to be able to cascade that down so that everybody starts to understand their particular role and, like, articulating the vision of what are we trying to accomplish as an organization.

这看起来相当明显。

That seems quite obvious.

但其实并不是，对吧？

But it's not, is it?

每个人都有自己的角色，这是一件显而易见的事。

Everybody having their role, it's an obvious thing.

但在实践中却非常困难。

It's really hard to do in practice.

对吧？

Right?

因为这需要深入的对话和权衡。

Because it requires really intense conversations and trade offs.

对吧？

Right?

而且需要真正地作为一个组织来运作。

And it requires actually working as an organization.

所以，如果我思考CEO在这一转型过程中需要具备的特质。

So if I think of the traits that a CEO needs to have as in part of this transformation.

对吧？

Right?

我们谈到了愿景。

We talked about the aspiration.

对我来说，有四个。

For me, there's four.

第一个是愿景。

One was aspiration.

我们已经谈过了。

We talked about that.

我们为组织设立了方向。

We set the organization up.

第二个是积极参与。

The second is being engaged.

对吧？

Right?

CEO必须时刻把握我们推动变革的方向，并在恰当的时间和关键时刻积极参与。

The CEO has to be on top of what we're trying to drive as this change and regularly engage in this at the right times and at the right moments.

第三，CEO必须获得授权。

Third is that the CEO has to be empowered.

CEO们通常知道自己想做什么，但由于董事会或其他利益相关者的原因，他们缺乏推动这些目标的能力。

CEOs often know what they wanna do, but because of the board or because of, you know, other stakeholders, they don't have the ability to drive what they're trying to drive.

最后一个特质是有效性。

And then the last trait is around being effective.

对吧？

Right?

CEO需要挺身而出。

CEOs need to step up.

他们必须在只有他们才能做决定的时候做出决策。

They need to make the decisions when only they can make the decisions.

在转型期间，新招聘的人才加入一个既有团队时会发生什么？如何帮助他们融入而非制造摩擦？这值得探讨吗？

Is it worthwhile to get into what happens when newly hired talent comes into an established workforce during a transformation and how to help join forces opposed to creating friction?

新来的人才，往往在加入一个正在运行的列车时，我们却没能很好地让他们了解组织其他成员一路走来的共同历程。

Talent that comes in, you know, too often when they're coming into a moving train, we do a really poor job of actually getting them up to speed on the collective journey that the rest of the organization has been on.

同样，当有人带着全新的视角加入时，他们实际上能成为推动组织更快变革的催化力量。

Equally, when someone comes on with fresh eyes and with a fresh perspective, they can actually help to provide the galvanizing force to get the organization to change even faster.

因此，这其实是一个机遇，但因为我们没有做好背景铺垫，没有创造机会让他们顺利登上这列正在行驶的列车，他们反而开始将方向带向与大家原本目标完全不同的路径。

So it's actually an opportunity, but too often, because we don't do the proper context setting, create the moments for them being able to get them onto the moving train, they start to steer it in a very different direction than everybody else is actually going on.

因此，结果往往没有达到本应实现的成功程度。

And so therefore, it's not as successful as it really could be.

非常好。

Excellent.

所以背景信息至关重要。

So context is so important.

你经常与首席执行官和领导者会面。

You meet with CEOs and leaders all the time.

您认为在这些转型过程中，跨行业 CEOs 最常忽视的单一最大挑战是什么？

What would you say maybe single biggest challenge that you see across industries that CEOs don't anticipate during these transformations?

我们看到的一个挑战是，转型与日常业务之间缺乏衔接，这会导致两种结果。

One of the challenges that we see is, like, that bridges aren't built between the transformation and the day to day business, and two results happen.

一是转型内部的运作节奏与日常业务不同。

One is within the transformation, we're operating at a different pace.

我们开始更快地做决策，等等。

We're starting to make decisions faster, etcetera.

但这些特质并未带入日常业务中，因此一切仍显得照常进行，我们并没有真正以紧迫感行动，从而导致效率低下。

Those same attributes aren't brought into the day to day business, so everything feels business as usual, and we're not actually acting with the urgency, and so therefore, we're suboptimizing.

第二，转型中的变革并未与日常业务同步进行。

The second part is the change in the transformation are not in lock step.

因此，人们会频繁产生争议，比如：‘我在这里看不到财务成果。’

And so, therefore, you get into lots of disputes about, oh, I can't see the financial results here.

我不清楚到底是什么在真正驱动我的绩效，因为从底线来看，我无法拆解究竟是什么在推动这些变化。

I don't understand actually what is really driving my performance because I at the bottom line, I can't disaggregate what actually is driving this.

我们非常注重贴近业务的运营指标。

And we are very big actually on getting closer on the operating metrics of the business.

这些是能告诉我们未来走向的领先指标，确保我们能在日常运营中与这些指标的变化保持紧密关联。

These are the leading indicators that show us where we're actually heading and making sure we can have a tight linkage within the day to day in the change on those operating metrics.

那么，在此过程中，我们来谈谈文化和沟通。

Let's talk about culture and communication then while this is going on.

这是一个庞大的话题。

It's a big giant topic.

但当你思考这个问题时，你觉得CEO在文化和沟通方面最独特的是什么？

But when you think about that, what comes to mind about culture and communication that the CEO is uniquely suited to instill?

首先，CEO必须说：嘿。

So first is that the CEO has to say, hey.

我们今天所做的事情，并不是我三个月、六个月、十二个月后想要达到的状态。

What we're doing today is not where I wanna be in three months time, six months time, twelve months time.

仅仅通过明确组织希望如何运作的愿景，这一行为本身就能带来强大的变革，将组织引向不同的方向。

And just the sheer act of actually setting a vision for how do we want the organization to operate is a powerful change that sets the organization onto a different course.

第二点是，好吧。

The second piece is, okay.

很好。

Great.

我们将以不同的方式运营，但谁会是这场变革的推动者呢？

We're gonna operate differently, but who is going to be the catalyst of this change?

归根结底，是企业内部的领导者。

At the end of the day, it's the leaders within the business.

一般来说。

In general.

比如，就是我们的高潜人才。

Like, it's our high potentials.

你向我们展示。

You show us.

你每天都能看到企业中存在的问题。

You see the problems that are in the business every day.

你能看到我们可能如何以不同的方式运营。

You see what potentially how we could operate differently.

我们需要改变哪些方面？

What are the things that we need to go change?

释放他们，让他们能够以截然不同的方式运作，我认为这是另一个强大的举措，能让组织运行得更快，并朝着正确的方向前进。

And unleashing them to be able to operate much differently, I think, is another powerful act that allows the organization to run much faster and to move in the right direction.

当所有团队都在执行这一转型时，首席执行官需要多深入地参与以维持预期的影响？

When all the teams are executing on this transformation, how hands on is the CEO to sustain the wanted impact?

我有个好消息和一个坏消息要告诉那些在位的首席执行官们。

So I got good news, and I got bad news for the CEOs that are out there.

好消息是，你不需要每天24小时、每周7天都亲自参与转型。

The good news is it is not you need to be involved with a transformation twenty four hours a day, seven days a week.

但坏消息是，你确实需要积极参与。

But the bad news is you do have to be engaged.

你确实需要投入其中。

You do have to be involved.

我们倾向于采用的节奏是每周一次。

And the cadence that we like to think of is weekly.

每周一次足以推动工作完成，推动组织前进，厘清需要解决的问题，并为正确的决策做好准备。

Weekly is enough to actually get work done, to be able to move an organization forward, to be able to get to the fact base of what needs to be solved, and to tee up the right decisions.

但时间间隔也不能太长，否则我们会浪费数周甚至数月的绩效。

But it's not so long that we're actually losing weeks and months and of a year of performance.

感谢您今天与我们同行。

Thank you for being with us today.

谢谢。

Thank you.

非常感谢您收听麦肯锡播客。

Thanks so much for listening to the McKinsey podcast.

我是露西娅·拉吉利。

I'm Lucia Raghily.

而且

And

我是罗贝塔·法萨罗。

I'm Roberta Fasaro.

请访问 mckinsey.com 找到我们。

Find us on mckinsey.com.

我们很快会发布本集的文本稿。

We'll have a transcript of this episode up shortly.

并下载麦肯锡洞察应用，在那里你可以找到本播客以及其他每日更新的有用内容。

And download the Mackenzie Insights app where you can find this podcast and other helpful content updated daily.

如果你喜欢这个节目，我们非常希望你能留下评分和评论。

If you enjoy the show, we'd love for you to leave a rating and a review.

两周后见。

We'll see you in two weeks.