Bitwise首席投资官：比特币将追随黄金的脚步迈向瓦尔哈拉——对话Matt Hougan与Ryan Rasmussen

这告诉我，比特币将跟随黄金一起飞升瓦尔哈拉。

And what that tells me is that Bitcoin is gonna follow gold to Valhalla.

早安早安，早上好，欢迎来到Milk Road Show，我们这档每日加密货币节目试图通过直觉、图表和亿万富翁的动向预测未来。我是主持人Delji Doucette，与我搭档的是更高更帅版的自己Jay Hamilton。今天是10月23日星期四，但我们其实是昨天录制的节目——先说明一下。今天做客的嘉宾有领先加密基金Bitwise研究主管Ryan Rasmussen，以及Bitwise首席投资官Matt Hogan。

GM GM, good morning, and welcome to the Milk Road Show, the daily crypto show where we try to predict the future using vibes, charts, and billionaires. I'm your host, Delji Doucette, joined by my cohost and the taller and more handsomer version of me, Jay Hamilton. It is Thursday, October 23, but we did record this yesterday. Just a little caveat. Today, we are joined by Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, a leading crypto fund, and Matt Hogan, CIO at Bitwise.

我们将探讨：为何黄金近期表现远超比特币？前几日收阴线后这种趋势会持续吗？ETF和企业持续买入为何比特币仍横盘？这些都是他前几天发布的精彩备忘录中的两大议题。另外，比特币会迎来爆发时刻吗？即将到来的下个月会是转折点吗？

We are gonna chat about why is gold outperforming Bitcoin so much, and will that continue after its red candle the other day? Why is Bitcoin flat when there's so much buying from ETFs and other corporations? These are two things in his fantastic memo that came out just a few days ago. And, also, is Bitcoin gonna have this breakout moment? And is that going to be next month, which is coming very soon?

如果有时间，我们还会聊聊预测市场Poly Market，展望2026和2027年——在这种震荡行情中我们需要拉长时间维度。开场前提醒：Milk Road投资组合刚完成超酷更新，专业会员长期使用的这个组合现在操作更快捷、更智能、更易用，可以实时追踪我们团队的操作动向。

And if we have a little bit of time, well, we're gonna chat some poly market and look, you know, look ahead to 2026 and 2027 because we gotta zoom out in weeks of chop like this. Before we start, in case you guys missed it, we actually just put out a really cool update to the Milk Road portfolio. If you're a pro All Access member, you've been using this portfolio for a while. It's faster, smarter, way easier to navigate now. You can track the moves that our team has been making.

你可以交互式查看图表，掌握所有动态。这个更新太棒了——专业会员现在就去体验吧！若非会员，你会严重FOMO的，因为这里展示了团队持仓的完整组合，未来几个月这些很可能正是你想配置的资产。

You can interact with the charts. You can see basically everything that's going down. I I I think this update is awesome. So All Access members, go and check out that site right now. If you're not an All Access member, well, this you're gonna get a lot of FOMO because there's a full portfolio what the team is holding here, and that's something you I think you wanna be holding in the next couple of months.

本期节目由Figure Markets赞助：像银行一样增值现金，无锁定期，真实收益。以及Gemini信用卡：每次刷卡都能积累比特币。

Today's episode is brought to you by Figure Markets. Grow your cash like a bank. No lockups. Just real returns. And Gemini credit card, stack Bitcoin every time you swipe.

零费用，零套路，纯加密奖励。先生们，让我们有请嘉宾——这个工作周中段有什么新动态？

No fees. No fluff. Just crypto rewards. Gentlemen, let's get them in here. What is going on midweek?

我们在开场白中聊了太多，我都不知道从何说起，但既然想涵盖这么多内容，我就直接进入主题吧。马特，让我们直接谈谈你那份关于黄金与比特币的备忘录。给我们快速总结一下你报告中的主要内容。

We we talked about so much in the preamble that I don't even know where to start, but I'm just gonna go right into since I wanna cover so much. Matt, let's just get right into your memo about gold versus Bitcoin. Tell us give us a quick TLDR there on what's covered in your report.

是的。首先，很高兴来到这里。这总是很有趣。你知道，我每周都会为Bitwise撰写这份名为CIO备忘录的报告。我尽量让它简短，就是这样。

Yeah. First of all, it's great to be here. This is always fun. You know, I write this weekly memo called the CIO memo for Bitwise. I try to make it short and there it is.

我写作的方式是先思考该写什么。这周最明显的话题就是黄金，特别是为什么黄金价格飙升而比特币却表现平平。这是所有人都在讨论的。于是我开始研究。遗憾的是，我只用了大约十二秒就找到了答案——摩根士丹利、摩根大通等机构都指出，黄金暴涨的原因是央行购金。

The way I write it is I think about what I should write about. The obvious thing to write about this week was gold and specifically why gold was going to the moon while Bitcoin was flat. It was all everyone could talk about. And so I started to research it. And unfortunately, it took me like twelve seconds to figure out the answer, which is the reason gold is skyrocketing, everyone says, Morgan Stanley says, JP Morgan says, everyone else says, is central bank buying.

各国央行的购金量从2022年的约500吨激增至1000吨。在美国冻结俄罗斯资产后，央行持续的买入需求彻底改变了黄金市场并推高了价格。这让我有些失望，因为如果十二秒就能解答的问题，实在不值得写成备忘录。但随后我意识到，央行增购潮其实始于三年前。数据显示，2022年美国冻结俄资产后央行购金量直线上升，当时各国央行都在想'我们必须买点别的资产'。

Central banks went from buying about 500 tons to a thousand tons in 2022. And that persistent bid from central banks, after The US seized Russia's assets has just transformed the asset and sent it up. And that was disappointing because if it takes me twelve seconds to answer my question, that's not much of a memo. But then what hit me is this central bank uptick actually happened three years ago. So if you look at the data, the buying went skyrocketed in 2022 when The US seized Russia's assets and central banks were like, we have to buy something else.

从2022年到2023年再到2025年，购金量一直保持平稳。但那些声称央行推高金价的人都没指出这种现象已持续四年，而金价真正飙升只是最近四个月的事。这时我突然明白，真正应该指出的是：比特币正在经历同样的过程。因为人们还在担心另一个问题——ETF买入量已是比特币新增供应量的2-4倍，为什么价格还没起飞？

And then it stayed flat from 2022 to twenty twenty three to twenty twenty five. But no one talking about the fact that central banks are driving the price up says that it's been happening for four years, and we've only gone rocket ship in the last four months. And then it clicked for me that the thing I should actually point out is that's what's happening in Bitcoin. Because the other thing people are worried about is ETFs have been buying two, three, 4X the net new supply of Bitcoin. Why hasn't the price gone to the moon?

答案在于同样的规律：当出现这类大买家时，他们需要从所有短期卖家手中收购资产。黄金用了四年完成这个过程，而比特币ETF才进行到第二年。这告诉我比特币终将追随黄金的脚步直冲云霄，只是时间问题。

And the answer is it's just doing the same thing, which is when you have these big new buyers, they have to buy the asset from every short term seller. And for gold, that took four years. For Bitcoin with ETFs we're in year two. And what that tells me is that Bitcoin is gonna follow gold to Valhalla. It's just a matter of time.

只要ETF投资者持续增持，他们最终会耗尽卖盘。到时候就会出现'比特币为何暴涨至50万美元'的新闻标题。答案将是ETF的持续买入，但这实际上是个长达四年的累积过程，而非当下瞬间的推动。

As long as we have ETF investors continuing to allocate, they will wear down the sellers eventually. And then there'll be headlines like what's driving the price of Bitcoin to 500 ks? And the answer will be ETF purchases, but it will actually be a four year story, not what's happening right then.

Matt，你是否担心卖家是谁？因为我读到过，那些持有大量比特币供应的OG们。这种价格压制究竟能持续多久？

Matt, are you worried about who are the sellers? Because I've read that it's it's Bitcoin OGs who hold, like, an enormous amount of supply. Is that is like, how long can that price suppression actually last?

是的，我认为我们会看到的。我的意思是，这是很重要的一部分。就像黄金的卖家是谁？实际上拥有黄金首饰的是散户投资者。

Yeah. I think we'll see. I mean, I think that's a big part of it. Just like who are the sellers of gold? It's actually retail investors who own gold jewelry.

就像是谁一直在抛售这些黄金份额。他们可能家族持有这些黄金已有五十年或一百年，现在价格上涨，所以他们卖出。你会看到商店里排着队卖黄金的人。所以是现有持有者在抛售。但我认为从黄金中得到的教训就是，这种抛售终将耗尽。

That's like who's been selling gold into this share. They probably had it for fifty or one hundred years in the family and the price is up, so they're selling it. You see the lines of people selling it at stores. So it is existing holders. But I think the lesson from gold is just it'll exhaust.

它不是无限的。到某个时刻供应会收紧，价格就会上涨。比特币自ETF推出以来表现相当不错，上涨了约160%到170%。但我们还没有达到那种耗尽状态。那么什么时候会呢？

Like it's not infinite. At some point that supply constricts and the price goes up. Bitcoin's done pretty well since ETF launched, up about 160, 170%. But we haven't yet reached that exhaustion. So when will we?

我不知道。但我确实知道它即将到来，这让我想在每次下跌时买入并永远持有。

I don't know. But I do know it's coming and that makes me wanna buy every dip and hold forever.

所以你是说...所以你是说把家里所有的金子都搜刮出来，包括订婚戒指，换成比特币，然后以后再买回来？

So you're saying so you're saying scrounge up all the gold in the house, engagement rings included, swap it for Bitcoin, and then just buy back later?

我认为完全正确。我是说，我们应该问问我们的

I think that's exactly right. I mean Should we ask our

先跟妻子们谈谈这个？

wives about that first?

不，不，不。不是这样的。

No, no, no. That's not.

不，我的意思是，值得注意的是另一个显而易见的事实：黄金正在告诉你储值市场的规模更大。如果你继续认为比特币将获得更大的市场份额，那是看涨信号。我刚加入Bitwise时，如果比特币与黄金市值相当，价格会达到约70万美元。而现在，如果比特币与黄金相当，价格将达到约140万美元，对吧？这也是积极的信号。

No, mean, it's worth noting the other obvious thing is gold is telling you that the store value market is bigger. If you continue to think Bitcoin will get a larger share of that market, that's bullish. When I started at Bitwise, if Bitcoin matched gold, it was getting to like 700,000. Now, if Bitcoin matches gold, it's getting to like 1,400,000.0, right? That's positive as well.

所以我认为这轮黄金牛市带来的都是好消息。我们应该为此感到高兴，为婴儿潮一代欢呼，然后等待属于我们的时机。

So I see only good stories out of this gold bull run. I think we should all be happy about it and cheer the boomers and wait our turn.

如果你观察的话，我也觉得这很有趣。黄金与比特币的交易对我来说仍是个相对新颖的概念。即便作为加密货币的深度玩家，我觉得将它们相提并论很有意思，因为在我看来它们是截然不同的资产。但不可避免的是，无论你转向哪里，人们都在讨论这个话题。我们谈论比特币将如何大幅追赶黄金，而目前它似乎有些落后。

If you look, I find this interesting too. And this is something like the gold Bitcoin trade is still kind of like a relatively new concept to me. And even you know, I I I personally being like a crypto degen kind of person, I find it funny to compare them because to me, they're they're drastically different assets. But inevitably, everywhere you turn, that's what people are saying. And we're talking about how Bitcoin is gonna drastically catch up to gold, and it's kind of lagging behind.

我正为YouTube观众调出数据——这是过去几年两者的涨幅对比。实际上自熊市低谷以来，比特币的百分比涨幅远超黄金。但人们仍在比较，认为黄金资金将逐渐流入比特币。马特，我想问你的问题是：我们看到比特币正通过ETF等形式进入主流，银行会购买这些吗？中央银行有可能涉足比特币吗？它们已经入场了吗？

I'm just pulling up for those that are viewing on YouTube. I'm just pulling up the, I guess, side by side kind of percentage gain here from the last couple years where Bitcoin is actually up dramatically much more percentage wise since kind of the doldrums of the bear versus gold. But naturally, people still comparing saying that the gold money is gonna trickle down into Bitcoin. Matt, the question for you that I have is, you know, we're seeing we're seeing the DATs, the ETFs. Those you know, that's where Bitcoin is going.

银行在买入这些产品吗？这是中央银行最终会涉足的领域吗？它们已经参与其中了吗？

Are are the banks buying that? Is this something that central banks would ever get into for Bitcoin? And have they already?

嗯，我们知道他们正在研究这个，对吧？因为我们确实接到过央行的电话，虽然不是每天都有——我不想夸大其词——但今年确实接到过几次。我怀疑他们最终会买入。是的，这正在描绘我们的未来图景。

Well, I so we know a bit wise that they're studying it. Right? Because we field phone calls from central banks, not every day, I don't wanna overstate it, but we fielded a few this year. And I do suspect they will end up buying it. So yeah, that is painting a picture of our future.

你看，比特币正在逐步攻陷机构层级。如果五年前我们坐在这里，你可能会问我家族办公室会买比特币吗？现在他们全都在买，对吧？已经有一些捐赠基金入场，可能还有一两个主权财富基金，但传统央行还是零参与。过去十年我们一直在向上突破机构层级，我看不出有什么理由不能最终攻克最顶层的央行购买。

Look, Bitcoin is slowly marching up the institutional stack. If we were here five years ago, you'd be asking me like, will family offices buy Bitcoin? Now they're all buying Bitcoin, right? And there are a few endowments and maybe there's one or two sovereign wealth funds and then traditional central banks are zero, but we've been marching up this institutional stack for the last ten years. I see no reason why we won't get all the way to the top, which is central banks buying it.

我认为这终将发生，对我来说只是时间问题。

I think it'll happen. It's just a matter of time for me.

够快的。

Fast enough.

这对所有听众来说都是如此。因为你是对的，这只是时间问题。无论如何，在此期间——特别是像本周这样的时刻——所有人都会惊慌失措，开始自我怀疑，因为恐惧占据了上风，而恐惧的力量太强大了。

That's what it is for everybody listening. Because you're right, it is a matter of time. No matter what, in the in between, especially at moments like this week right now, everyone's gonna trip out and start to convince themselves otherwise because fear settles in and fear is so strong.

这太疯狂了。我是说，比特币过去一年的表现优于黄金，而我们却都在恐慌。我知道它今年至今表现不佳，但只要你把时间线拉长一点...不过我同意，人们总是恐慌，而这正是你的机会。

It's so crazy. I mean, Bitcoin has outperformed gold over the last year and we're all freaking out. I know it's underperformed year to date, but you just zoom out a little bit. But I agree, people freak out. That's your opportunity.

你们做了这么精彩的报道。我正好顺势提一下——瑞恩，欢迎随时加入讨论，因为我刚才一直在用尖锐的问题拷问马特。

You guys have put out this fantastic reporting. I'm just segue into this. Ryan, feel free to airdrop into this conversation here because I've just been grilling Matt with hard questions.

没关系。我很感激能观看这个，所以我很开心。

That's okay. I appreciate I appreciate watching that. So I'm happy.

我们来看看这个。你们发布了第三季度报告，我想是昨天或前天刚发布的。随便提一句，这份报告内容非常丰富，有76页精彩的图表和数据，全面展示了这些专家对未来走势和主要催化剂的看法。但第14页提到了季节性规律。

Let's just pull up this thing. So you guys put out your your q three report, I think, just came out yesterday or the day before. Taking a look through there's a massive report, by way, anybody listening. It's 76 pages of fantastic charts and data and a lot of kinda oversight over what these guys think is gonna happen and and the major catalyst to come and and the big themes. But page 14, we've got the seasonality thing.

对吧？我每个季度、每个月都能看到这种情况，尤其是秋季。总有人在X上说九月是最糟的月份，十月要来了。但根据你们这份追溯到2010年的研究...

Right? And I see this every quarter, every month, especially in the fall. You see this on x of people who were like, September is the worst month. October's coming. And now, but based on your research here, and we're looking this goes back to 2010, right?

自比特币诞生以来，11月是其表现最好的月份，涨幅达38.5%。其次是四月，然后是十月。今年还会这样吗？

Since the start of Bitcoin, November is the highest monthly performance for Bitcoin, 38.5%. The next closest is April and then October after that. Is that going to happen this year?

这是个很好的问题。我特别喜欢这张图表，因为它展示了加密货币市场与股票市场的相似之处——投资者对'五月卖出离场'这句股谚很熟悉。图表显示，如果投资者每年五月在比特币平均上涨23%后卖出，九月再抄底，长期收益会非常可观。目前这个规律似乎仍在应验。

It's a great it's a great question. I actually love this chart because this is one of those one of those instances where crypto markets aren't that different from equity markets, which investors are very familiar with. There's this saying in equity markets, sell in May and go away, and you can see here on the chart that if investors had done that, they had sold in May after the Bitcoin was up on average 23%, every year in the month of May and came back in September and bought the dip. It would have been extraordinarily well over that cycle. So far, it's seemingly working out that way as well.

自'3月以来价格走势一直向好，我认为第四季度会非常强劲。主要受两个因素驱动：宏观环境持续宽松，利率可能进一步下调而非上升，这将为比特币等风险资产创造有利条件。

Price action has been positive so far since the '3, and I do think that we're going to have a very strong q four. I mainly, this is gonna be led by two things. It's gonna be continued easing of macro conditions. I think more interest rate cuts are coming. We're more likely to see lower rates than higher rates, which will be a positive tailwind for assets like Bitcoin and other risk assets.

此外季节性影响正在消退。想想ETP的买家是谁——财务顾问、机构投资者、像Matt这样的CIO们，他们夏天都在缅因州度假、开游艇打高尔夫。季节性规律之所以成立，正是因为低流动性环境导致市场波动，而九月开始我们每天接触的理财顾问咨询量明显增加，这种趋势会持续加速到年底，我认为这将带来更多ETF资金流入。

But then also, you just have the seasonality impact no longer playing a role. Like, if you think about who's buying the ETPs, it's financial advisers, institutional investors, and CIOs, and folks like Matt who who go to Maine for the summer and are off on their boat and golfing and, like, not working. And and and that's why the seasonality is saying is true is that you just have a low liquidity environment that leads to choppiness and you don't have as much interest. And at Bitwise, interfacing with financial advisors, wealth managers every single day, the amount of inbound requests we get starting at the very September is so noticeable, and it really does accelerate through the end of the year. And I think that's going to lead to more ETF flows.

我认为宏观经济条件的缓和将成为有利因素。除此之外的任何积极因素都将进一步推动市场走高。因此我对今年十月、十一月、十二月乃至2026年的前景非常乐观。

I think easing macro conditions are going to help as a tailwind. And anything on top of that will just continue to push us higher. So I'm very optimistic on October, November and December of this year and into 2026.

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Why do people invest in real estate? Because it spits off cash flow. But I'm not here to manage rental properties. That's why I'm looking at Figure Markets. Their new democratized prime product backs your money with real cash flowing assets and returns up to 9% APY.

这是首个面向大众而非仅限机构的现实世界资产借贷池。想像银行一样放贷并获得超过Aave提供的5%收益吗？立即下载Figure Markets应用，让闲置资金获得9%收益。访问milpro.com/figuremarkets。您知道无需购买比特币也能赚取比特币吗？

It's the first real world asset for a lend pool built for everyone, not just institutions. Ready to lend like a bank and get more than the 5% Aave is offering you? Download the Figure Markets app today and get 9% on your idle funds. Go to milpro.com/figuremarkets. Did you know you can earn Bitcoin without ever buying it?

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That's where the Gemini credit card comes in. Here's how it works. Earn up to 4% back in Bitcoin on gas, transit, and rideshare, 3% on dining, 2% on groceries, and 1% on everything else. Use it just like any other credit card, and you're building a crypto portfolio at the same time. The best part, the Gemini credit card has no annual fee and works anywhere Mastercard is accepted.

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When you're approved and spend 3,000 in the first ninety days, you'll get a $200 Bitcoin bonus. Spend as usual, earn Bitcoin instead at milkroad.com/gemini.

既然你们也与这些机构交流，我想请教关于账本平衡的说法是否属实？因为我注意到每当月底前几天出现加密货币抛售时，推特上总有人说'你懂的，那些交易员要平衡账本了'。但我完全不明白这是什么意思——为什么他们要抛售资产只是为了让损益表看起来更好看？是为了削减当月亏损吗？

Is there any truth since you guys speak to these institutions too, this balancing of order books narrative I've seen a few times? Because I I always see if ever there's a dump of of of crypto in the last couple days in the month, I go on x and people are like, well, you know what it is. So all those traders, they gotta balance their books. And I'm like, I don't even I don't even know what you mean by that. Like, why would they just offload stuff to just but make the p and l look better, cut cut the losses from the month.

能详细解释下这个现象吗？这种说法属实吗？十月份我们会看到机构平衡账本还是价格拉升？这对机构而言究竟意味着什么？

Can you guys speak to that a bit? Is that is that true? Are we gonna see a balancing of books at the October or a pump? What what happens there for institutions?

请讲，Ryan。

Go ahead, Ryan.

我认为，市场上存在大量围绕价格波动的阴谋论，而这些波动其实都有合理解释。比特币市场吸引了大量关注和参与者，这会导致价格行为异常。另外，传统市场无法实现24/7、365天不间断交易，也无法用传统资产或对冲基金等替代品做到这点，但比特币和加密货币可以。这就催生了一些容易引发阴谋论的情景，但归根结底，我认为是市场自然力量而非人为操控在推动行情。

I think I I think there's a lot of, like, conspiracy theorizing that happens around market movements that can just be explained away around. There's a lot of interest and participants in the Bitcoin market, and that can lead to funkiness in price action. Know, an additional element to that is that people who want to trade assets 20 fourseven, three sixty five can't do that in traditional markets, can't do that with traditional assets, can't do that with things like hedge funds and other alts, but you can do that with Bitcoin and with crypto. And that just leads to some of these scenarios that I think people create conspiracy theories around, but ultimately, I think that natural forces are driving the market rather than coordinated forces.

完全同意。人们总想相信有个幕后黑手在操控市场，但这些解释都是事后诸葛亮。很少有人能提前预测，因为这套说辞基本是胡扯。当然，有些交易员需要对冲期权策略，这会影响账面。

Yeah, I couldn't agree more. Everyone wants to believe in this great, like hidden Oz controlling all sorts of markets, but all the explanations of it happened post fact. Very few will predict it pre event. And that's because it's mostly nonsense. Obviously there are traders who need to match their option strategies against the physical, and that may impact books.

有些交易员不愿持仓过周末。于是你会看到价格回调或序列相关性，他们季度报告看起来就很聪明。这些都只是边际影响，绝非本末倒置，对吧？这些都是对神秘操控者的幻想。

There are traders who don't wanna go into weekends long or short an asset. So you can see reversions or you can see serial correlation if they wanna position. So they look like they were smart because they have their end of quarter reports. All that happens on the margin, but it's not the tail wagging the dog, right? These are the imaginations of this magical Oz.

交易员确实有影响，但并非市场走势的

They're traders. Have an impact, but they're not dictating what's going on in

主宰者。投机者们需要故事啊，老兄。比特币每波动1000点都得有个理由，总得有人背锅说是他在

the market. The degens need a story, man. We need a story to tell ourselves. At every one k that Bitcoin moves, there's gotta be a reason. There's gotta be somebody It's pulling the

完全正确。我妻子问我行情时，我就说涨涨跌跌——我觉得这已经是很详细的描述了。

totally right. Yeah. I mean, my wife comes in and asks me how it's going. I say it goes up and down, which I think is detailed description of what happens.

唯二可以确定的是，价格会上涨也会下跌。仔细研究一下。但我不确定是否从你们那里得到了关于十一月论点的明确答案，对吧？这份报告中的所有内容，所有来自像你们这样聪明人的观点。比如瑞安，你说第四季度仍然非常乐观。

The only two guarantees, the price will go up and the price will go down. Scout it down. But I don't know if I got a clear answer from you guys on the November thesis, right? You know, everything in this report, everything from, you know, really intelligent people from like you guys points. Like, Ryan, you're saying q four, still super bullish.

我们专业团队的所有人，所有分析师，大家都有同感。然而市场情绪却并非如此。你们...好吧，我不想讨论情绪，因为我觉得我们刚谈过。人们只是在为缓慢的价格变动或不同的价格走势编造理由。但这对你们来说是个非常明确的问题。

All our guys on the pro team, all our analysts, everybody feels the same way. And yet the sentiment doesn't feel that way. You guys well, I don't wanna talk about the sentiment because I think we just did that. People just kinda making up stories for slow price action or or different price action. But is like a very clear question for you guys.

比特币会在十一月创下历史新高吗？

Will Bitcoin reach an all time high in November?

我来回答吧，瑞安。你就在等我接话。我...我认为会的。我觉得有可能还会跌得更低。

I'll I'll go, Ryan. You're just waiting for me to jump in. I I look. I think it will. I think there's a chance it goes lower.

我认为有可能下探到10万美元以下。这不是不可能的。一天前渣打银行发布报告称跌破10万不可避免。但我认为长期论点依然成立。加密货币现在并非市场主导力量。

I think there's a chance it wicks below a 100 k. I don't think that's impossible. You see Standard Chartered put out a note a day ago saying below 100 ks is inevitable. But I think the long term thesis is still intact. I think crypto is not driving the bus.

我认为这就是为什么加密原住民如此沮丧——他们郁闷于没有真正的山寨币季节，这个周期令人失望。他们习惯了四年周期现在就该反转。但他们没意识到传统金融才是当前的市场主导。

And I think that's why sort of crypto natives are so depressed because they're depressed. There's been no real alt season. It's been sort of a disappointing cycle. They're used to the four year turning over right about now. But I think what they miss is that TradFi is driving the bus here.

传统金融机构是大市值加密资产的主要边际买家。我认为他们会为了年底报表好看而配置资产——展示他们持有黄金和比特币的头寸。所以我们确实可能回调，但我怀疑年底前我们会创下新的历史高点。

TradFi is the marginal buyer of the large cap crypto assets. And I think they're going to paint their portfolios into the end of the year to show that they have allocations to gold, to show that they have allocations to Bitcoin. And so we could well dip, but I do suspect we set a new all time high before the end of the year.

是的，我完全赞同这一点。我认为我们将在年底前创下历史新高。11月似乎是最有可能的时机。我记得上次我们录制节目是在10月10日闪崩的那个周五早晨，当时我们录制时只有最初的声明，但在随后几小时的混乱发生前就完成了录制。

Yeah, I would just second that. I think that we will set a new all time high before the end of the year. November seems like a prime candidate for that. I think last time that we recorded, it was Friday of the flash crash, October 10, and we recorded in the morning. So we had had the initial statements, but we recorded hours before the chaos that ensued.

我认为如果那次闪崩没有发生，我们现在应该已经创下新高了。当然那是个小挫折，但它清除了系统中的大量杠杆。大多数机构投资者甚至不知道那个周五发生了什么，因为他们更关注当时发布的声明、市场走势、周末期货开盘情况以及周一的后续发展。最终我认为那次事件只是让市场重置，随着更多资金流入，将推动我们继续走高。而且我认为特朗普推文带来的那些不确定性冲击，最终往往没有造成预期中的重大影响。

And I think had that not happened, we would already be at new all time highs. I think that was, of course, a minor setback, but that flushed a lot of leverage out of the system. Most institutional investors have no idea what even happened that Friday because they were more concerned with the statements that were being made and how markets were gonna move and how futures opened over the weekend and what happened on Monday. So I think that ultimately, that just reset the market and will will allow us to push higher as more flows come in. And I also think that you have these uncertainty shocks from things that are tweeted out by Trump, and then they end up not being as big of a factor.

我认为如果没有那些推文，我们现在应该已经创下新高了。随着我们对这类事件一次又一次地脱敏，市场恢复速度越来越快，在Matt提到的那些力量推动下——专业投资者和机构最终将推动市场走高——我们将继续上涨，并最终消化掉所有卖方疲态。

And I think without those tweets, we'd be at all time highs. I think as we get desensitized to these types of events over and over again and the recovery becomes quicker and quicker that we're going to continue to push higher in those forces that Matt mentioned, which is professional investors and institutions are going to ultimately push us higher, and we're going to churn through all of that seller exhaustion that we ultimately will see.

我想说的是，我同意你们的观点，我也看好今年会创历史新高。但你知道，特朗普的推文是整个市场中最不可预测的部分。你永远无法预料，真的永远猜不透，对吧？

I mean, I I'll just point out that that I I agree with you guys, and I'm I'm I'm down with the all time high this year. But, you know, the Trump the Trump tweets are are are un the most unpredictable part an unpredictable part of the whole market. So you never know. You just never know. Right?

从现在起任何事情都可能发生。但我想问你们，在你们的第三季度报告中列出了许多重大催化剂，其中一个是《清晰法案》。目前政府还在停摆中——虽然我还没查Polymarket的预测赔率，但我觉得通过概率不大，可能要到十月底才能解决，不过这只是Polymarket的预测。Ryan或Matt，《清晰法案》通过会对加密货币产生多大影响？

There's anything that could happen from here. But I do wanna ask you, in your in your q three report, you've got, you've got a lot of big catalysts coming up, one of which is the Clarity Act. Government's still shut down right now. I think I haven't checked the polymarket odds, but they're not they're they're not I don't think they're great for I think they're maybe October looking like, that might end, but that's still just polymarket. Ryan or Matt, how how big of an impact would the Clarity Act passing have on crypto?

假设政府在月底重新开门，这类法案通过需要多久？

And let's say the government opens reopens at the end of the month, how soon would something like that happen?

我认为《清晰法案》的长期影响是巨大的，而且被投资者严重低估。我们已经启动了一个监管飞轮，人们很容易忘记自去年大选以来取得的所有监管进展——曾经有段时间每周都有新的监管或立法成果登上头条，大家总是欢呼'太棒了'、'太好了'。

I think the long term impact of the Clarity Act is tremendous and greatly mispriced by investors. I think that we have this regulatory flywheel that's already in motion, and it's easy to forget all of the regulatory advancements that we've made since the election last year because there was a period where every single week, some new regulatory or legislative win was up on the leaderboard, and you're like, oh, awesome. Great. Oh, awesome. Great.

久而久之你会习惯这种状态。但回想我们取得的十大胜利，它们都意义重大，《清晰法案》绝对位列其中。长远来看，我认为这将显著推高加密货币价值。短期可能会有价格波动，但我视该法案通过为持续多年的行业利好，会不断推动监管飞轮，这无疑有助于市场上涨。

And you kind of got used to it. But if you think back at, like, the 10 biggest wins that we've had, they are massive, and the Clarity Act would be right up there with those wins. And so I think over the long term, this pushes crypto significantly higher. And I think short term, you'll have some price action. But I view the Clarity Act passing as more of a multiyear tailwind to crypto that continues to fuel this regulatory flywheel, which is certainly helping push markets higher.

它正帮助机构投资者进入市场并配置加密资产，促使企业和机构入场构建加密服务，从而带动领域投资，最终推高价格。我认为其影响将十分深远，但人们低估了这个长期效应，市场定价存在偏差。

It's helping institutional investors come into the market and allocate to crypto. It's helping institutions and corporations come into the market and build crypto services, which drives investment in the space, which ultimately drives prices higher. So I think that it will have a major impact, but it'll be a longer term one that people are thinking and people are mispricing it.

确实如此。值得一提的是，Poly Market并不乐观。根据我看到的数据，他们认为至少要到11月中旬才会解禁。我查看的这个平台显示11月12日后解禁概率超过50%——这时间跨度太疯狂了，充分反映了当前局势。

Yeah, I think that's right. For what it's worth, poly market is not optimistic. It thinks we're gonna be shut down until at least like mid November, if I'm looking at the right poly market. They're probably multiple, but the one I'm looking at puts a 50% plus odds on after November 12, which is a while, which is crazy. It's such a commentary on what's going on now.

我认为市场已对《清晰法案》流产进行了定价。原因在于政府停摆及民主党对共和党版本的强烈抵制，双方存在重大分歧。虽然存在流产可能，但若通过将成为重大利好催化剂。关键是要评估市场现状与概率——若真失败，可能会有小幅下跌。

My view of the Clarity Act is that the market has priced in it not happening. And the reason for that is that you have the government shutdown and you have the Democrats pushing against the Republican version and a big conflict there. And I suspect there's a chance it won't happen, but I think if it does happen, it's a major positive catalyst. So I think it's important to think about where the market is versus the probability. If it truly fails, there's probably a little bit of downside.

但若法案通过，我认为这将是个巨大催化剂，尤其对ETH、Solana等币种的提振会超过比特币。总体而言，这可能是推动我们创历史新高的因素之一。

But if it does happen, I think it's a huge catalyst, particularly for ETH Solana on down more so than Bitcoin. But generally speaking, it's one of the things that could drive us to new all time highs.

我感觉人们过度聚焦立法层面——比如现在有两项法案：《天才法案》已通过，《清晰法案》即将到来。你会觉得可能有50%涨幅，但这预期其实很糟糕对吧？

It feels to me like people are also you can get very focused on the legislation side and say, okay, we have two legislations. We have Genius Act passed. We have Clarity Act coming. And you think, okay, well, we might shoot 50%, which feels like crap. Right?

确实不理想。这是个容易得出的结论，但人们忽视了监管层面的进展。《天才法案》带来了诸多胜利（正如你们提到的，报告中有详细记载），几乎每周每月都有新突破，却没人认真研读这些文件或真正关注。

Okay. That's bad. Right? That's, you know, that is a very easy story to tell, but people aren't focusing enough on what's happened on the regulatory side. As a result of the Genius Act, we've had so many wins that you guys mentioned and the report goes into detail on that that is there's wins every week, every month there that like nobody reads those documents or really pays attention.

确实很难真正感受到这种影响，因为这种影响从来都不是立竿见影的。但在我看来，你不能忽视SEC的加密货币框架以及所有已发生的事件。Matt，由于SEC和上市标准的一系列变化，你一直在呼吁举办ETP狂欢节。所以即使我们没有《清晰法案》，这种监管红利依然存在。

And it's difficult to really feel the impact of that because that's also the impact is never felt immediately. But to me, you can't look past, you know, the SEC crypto framework, all the things that have happened. You know, Matt, you've calling for ETPalooza for a while as a result of everything that's happened with the SEC and the listing standards. And so it feels to me, even if we don't get Clarity Act, like that regulatory tailwind is still there.

是的，完全同意。

Yeah, absolutely. I agree

对此我完全赞同。哦，Ryan你继续说。

with that. It's absolutely. Oh, go ahead, Ryan.

我刚想说这份报告第72页专门梳理了仅第三季度美国境内的监管动态。短短三个月时间，美国就...没错，你刚才正好提到了这点。

I was just gonna say there's a there's a page in this report. It's page 72, which highlights just the regulatory developments in The US only over q three. Right? So three month period in The US. And, yeah, think you you brought it up right there.

感谢补充。SEC推出的'加密计划'本质上是高层制定的路线图，指明了市场在代币化和加密资产融入传统金融领域的发展方向，这是重塑美国金融与投资方式的时代机遇。而特朗普签署的《天才法案》将带来通用上市标准，进而催生Matt提到的ETP狂潮。CFTC批准了加密质押和现货交易，我们还获得了公平银行令。

Thank you. You have Project Crypto launched by the SEC, which is basically a road map by the highest ranks of the SEC on where markets are headed with tokenization and the integration of crypto into traditional financial markets and a generational opportunity to improve the way that finance is conducted and investing is conducted in The United States. Yet Trump signed the Genius Act, get generic listing standards, which is going to lead to the ET Palooza that Matt mentioned. We had green lights on crypto staking, on spot trading from the CFTC. We had a fair banking order.

劳工部和特朗普推翻了加密401k禁令。这些单独拎出来都是重大突破——若放在两年前，其中任意一项都足以让人欢呼雀跃。但如今这七项突破全集中在过去三个月，这还不包括前两个季度接连发生的变革。我认为人们严重低估了这个飞轮效应的威力。

We had a reverse on crypto four zero one ks by the Department of Labor and by Trump. Those are all individually huge developments and things that two years ago everyone would have been doing backflips and shooting confetti and cartwheels over if one of those happened over a given twelve month period. Yet all seven of these happened in the last three months. And this ignores the things that happened in three months preceding that and the three months preceding that. I think that's part of this flywheel that people are just getting wrong.

回到最初的话题，《清晰法案》将产生巨大影响，其威力不亚于甚至可能超过'加密计划'和《天才法案》等推动市场上涨的因素。它给予传统投资者信心，证明这个市场具有持久性，既降低了他们的配置风险，也减少了市场参与者的各类运营风险。

And I think that the, you know, Clarity Act, going back to where we started on this, is going to be massive. It's going to be as massive, if not more than Project Crypto and the Genius Act and other elements that we've seen fuel markets higher and it gives comfortability to traditional investors. So this is a market that's here to stay. It reduces risk of them allocating. It reduces, you know, all kinds of other market risks for participants in the market.

我认为这是一个巨大的催化剂。

And I think that is a huge catalyst.

好的。所以你们是说我不该押注Polymarket上19%的概率认为《清晰法案》会在2025年签署成法？它有没有可能

Okay. So you guys are saying that I shouldn't take this 19% chance on polymarket of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2025? Could it

不 不可能。

not No.

但政府停摆结束后这个概率难道不会直接翻倍吗？甚至不需要涨到100%，只要回升到40%或50%就行。对吧？这就是预测市场的魅力所在。

Could the would the could this not just double when the government shutdown ends though? Even even like, it doesn't have to be it doesn't have to resolve to a 100%, but it could just go back up to 40 or 50%. Right? That's all you need. That's that's what that's beauty of these prediction markets.

你只需要趋势稍有转变。七月份时这个法案2025年通过的概率还高达87%，现在只剩19%了。

You just need the trend to change a little bit. It was in July, it was at 87% on July 17 that this would pass in 2025. Now it's at '19.

没错。我要补充的是，在特朗普执政时期有两件事一直很灵验：第一是反向操作他的推文，因为实际情况往往没有他推文表现的那么糟。

Yeah. Yeah. I would add there's been two things to do with the Trump administration that consistently have worked. And the first is to fade his tweets, right? Because it doesn't end up being as bad as the initial tweet happens.

几周前的周五就发生过这种情况。第二是相信他们在加密货币核心承诺上的兑现，他们确实一直履行得不错。所以我猜PolyMarket上19%的押注值得跟进，这是我的判断。

That's what happened a few Fridays ago. And the second is to count on them delivering on their core promises on crypto. They've actually done that pretty consistently. And so I suspect that 19% bid on poly market is a good bid to hit. Like, that's my guess.

我猜测到年底价格会上涨。我可能错了，但根据我个人对概率的解读，这个可能性高于五分之一。

My guess is that will go up by the end of the year. I could be wrong, but I think there's my personal read of the probability there is that it's higher than one out of five.

马特给出了罕见的短期建议——开个玩笑，这不是财务建议，也不是投资期限极短的罕见建议。让我重新回到我的狂热思维模式。

Matt, with the Matt, with the rare short term advice. Just kidding. It's not financial advice. Not investment investment term with the very rare short frame. Getting back into my degen head.

我觉得这太完美了，正是我需要的。先生们，趁我们还在讨论大趋势时，我想请教：散户在这整个周期中扮演了什么角色？这个问题在其他节目可能讨论过，但在你们的报告中似乎提及不多。

I'm like, that's perfect. That's what I need. Gentlemen, I wanted to ask you while we're still just talking larger trends. What's been the role of retail in this entire cycle? I feel like something that maybe we've covered on other shows and I haven't seen too much of in in your reports.

散户现在进场了吗？还是即将进场？他们在等待立法通过吗？在这个周期中他们到底在做什么？

Is retail here? Is it coming? Is it waiting for these this legislation to go through? What's it doing in the cycle?

这是个很好的问题。我认为部分散户已经进场，如今更多体现在ETF资金流而非Coinbase交易量或平台宕机这类现象上。但我确实认为散户某种程度上已经参与其中。同时我也完全相信，散户狂热尚未到来，甚至还未接近——这基于我日常与人接触的感受。自从比特币突破7.5万向8万迈进以来，我都没收到过那些我们都会收到的短信。

That's a great question. You know, I think that some retail participants are here and perhaps these days show up in things like ETF flows rather than Coinbase trading volume or Coinbase platform outages or something like that. But I do think that the retail participants are somewhat here. I fully also believe that retail frenzy has not arrived and it's not even closed, and that would just be based on, you know, my interactions day to day with people. I haven't really been receiving those text messages that I'm sure we all get since Bitcoin was, you know, clearing 75 ks and going towards 80 ks.

上次大规模收到这类短信还是一月份，当时人们都在问'跌破7万我就买入'，或是'该买XRP还是卡尔达诺？'。考虑到当前市场走势，这种沉寂让我非常惊讶。这可能预示着当前散户参与者比本轮周期后期要少，而他们的入场必将助推涨势。

Like, that was the last time that I really saw a bunch of people being like, what? Once it drops below 70, I'm buying. And, you know, what is what should I buy XRP or should I buy Cardano? Like, I haven't gotten those text messages since maybe January, which is really surprising to me given where markets have gone. And I think perhaps that's a sign that there's just fewer retail participants right now than there will be later in this cycle, and that will certainly help fuel the the the the rally if if they do come.

我同意马特的观点：这是机构主导的市场。正因如此，未来暴涨暴跌的周期会减少——如今机构参与者规模远超以往，而且他们大多是长期持有者。

But I agree with what Matt's been saying, which is that this is an institution driven market. And I think that's why we'll have less of those boom bust cycles going forward is because institutions are much larger participants today than they were before. And they're ultimately long term holders for the most part.

我是说这张图表，继续说吧。继续，马特。

This chart I mean, gotta Go ahead. Go ahead, Matt.

我刚想补充零售方面的情况。我觉得他们遭受了双重打击——先是FTX事件，然后是迷因币崩盘。可能他们在梅拉尼娅之后就干脆退出了。

I was just gonna add on the retail stuff. I I think they got they got double crushed. They got crushed by FTX and they got crushed by the MemeCoin collapse. And maybe they just folded it in after Melania.

还有NFT。别忘了NFT。NFT可是重头戏。

Did. And NFTs. Don't forget NFTs. NFTs is a big one.

以及NFT。我是说，这简直是三连击。被打击太多次后只能卷铺盖走人。现在留下的零售投资者都是传统金融玩家对吧？他们主要投资ETF。

And NFTs. I mean, like, no, that's three strikes. You can only get wrecked so many times before you fold up your head tent. I think the retail that's been here is TradFi retail, right? The retail that's been here has been in ETFs.

剩下的零售资金都在MicroStrategy和其他DATs里。这是完全不同的散户群体。虽然零售需求依然强劲且持续，但正如你所说，原生加密散户接连遭遇FTX、迷因币和NFT三重暴击，这轮周期可能没那么活跃了。但这不意味着零售资金离场，只是换了一批人。

The retail that's been here has been in MicroStrategy and other DATs. I think it's been a different retail. I do think that retail demand is robust and continuing, but I think crypto native retail just got, as you said, or as we just covered, triple wrecked by FTX, meme coins, and NFTs, and maybe just isn't that robust in this cycle. But that doesn't mean retail's not here. It's just a different retail.

我同意这点。零售的定义已经彻底改变。现在没人不知道比特币。上一轮周期大家还在说'好吧，我终于要入场了'，当时也有很多疫情导致的闲散资金。

I would agree there. I think the definition of retail has just changed dramatically. It's not like people don't know what Bitcoin is. I think last cycle, people were like, okay. Finally, I'm finally getting into this and people a lot of boredom then too is pandemic.

这个故事我们讲过无数遍，但这次不同——不再有人纠结'是不是该买比特币了'。过去几年他们早就做出决定或反复挣扎过。不过今天我倒看到零售回归的催化剂——股市里Beyond Meat的轧空行情。你们关注的话就知道，他们称之为GME2.0，包括马丁·斯克雷利在内的空头正被挤出Beyond Meat的空头仓位。

And we've told that story a thousand times, but I think this time it's not you don't have people being like, well, maybe it is finally time for me to buy Bitcoin. I think they've made that decision or wrestled with it a few times in the last couple years since that last cycle. And I but I would say that today, I did see a catalyst for retail returning, and it is the Beyond Meat short squeeze in the stock market that's happening. If you guys have followed that, is they're calling it GME two point o as a lot of short sellers, including Martin Scraeli is getting squeezed out of his Beyond Meat short. It's just hey.

杰伊在笑，但这就是，你知道的，当我看到某个东西在Reddit上刷屏时，我就知道零售投资者会对它产生兴趣。我就是这样判断的——过几天肯定会收到相关短信。所以我要先指出这一点。

Who Jay is laughing, but this is this is the you know, I I'll say when I see something all over Reddit, that's when I know that there's gonna be retail interest in something. I've just that's how I know I'm gonna get texts about it a couple days later. So I'm just gonna point that out.

确实如此。马特和我，说起来，我们一小时前还在讨论这个人造肉公司Beyond Meat的事。

Anyway That is so true. Matt and I, for what it's worth, we're just talking about this Beyond Meat thing, like, an hour ago. So

Beyond Meat没有多元市场。我们可以稍后查证。但我想先结束关于比特币零售投资的讨论。你们报告第18页有张图表显示，比特币持有者类型中个人仍占66%，基金占7.8%，ETP和企业分别占6.6%和7.6%，预计损失7.6%。

Doesn't have a poly market for Beyond Meat. We'll we could we could check that in a minute. But but I wanna I wanna wrap up this just this retail conversation, Bitcoin. We have this other chart in your report, page 18. Bitcoin ownership by type still shows 66% as individuals, followed by 7.8% of funds, ETPs, and businesses at 6.6% 7.6% estimated loss.

所以那些就是埋在垃圾填埋场里的账本吧？每个账本上有2000个比特币再也找不回来了，我猜。那么这66%的个人持有者，到底是些什么人？是散户混搭早期玩家（OG）吗？

So that's those are the ledgers in the landfills that have, like, 2,000 BTC on each one that'll never be found again, I'm assuming. So to you guys, is this 66% of individuals? What is that? Is that is that is that a mix of retail? Are those OGs?

这些人是谁？

Who are those people?

两者都有。当然，早期大持有者在这个数字中的占比肯定会越来越大。但主要还是散户投资者。实际上我们这些数据来自River公司，他们通过详尽分析不同地址、所有权和集群来整合数据。

Yeah. Both. I I think, you know, of course, large OG holders are gonna start making up a larger percentage of this number, certainly. But it's it's retail investors for the most part. We we actually get this data from River, who does a really great job of exhaustively examining different addresses and ownerships and clusters to pull this data together.

绝对是以散户为主。这张图表让我特别注意的是，我回溯了一年前的数据，发现增幅最大的是基金和ETP，从5.2%增长到7.8%，涨幅约50%。我认为这反映了当前市场由机构主导的特性，过去一年的市场驱动力，以及未来几年的趋势。很棒的数据。

And it's definitely retail investors for the most part. One thing that sticks out to me about this graphic here is that I went back and looked at what this breakdown was a year ago, and the biggest jump that I can see here is in funds and ETPs, which was 5.2% and is now 7.8%. So it's something like a 50% increase from where it was a year ago. And I think that speaks to the retail or I'm sorry, the institutional driven market nature of where we are at today, what's driven the market for the past year and where we're headed over the next couple of years. Awesome.

谢谢你的解释。好的，请继续，杰伊。

Thank you for explaining that. All right. Go ahead, Jay.

你得快速切换到下一张幻灯片，因为这里讲的是比特币供需关系的故事，实际上我们还应该看看以太坊的幻灯片，它的位置稍低些，这又回到你备忘录里马特提出的问题——为什么价格没上涨，尽管有这个供需故事。不过还是先带我们过一遍比特币的供需情况吧。我们先谈比特币，再讨论以太坊。

You got to go to the next slide quickly because there's just this the story of supply versus demand with Bitcoin and even actually we should look at the Ethereum slide too which is a few lower like and this is why it goes back to your memo Matt of what the heck why is the price not going up if this story, but just walk us through the supply versus demand on Bitcoin. Let's talk Bitcoin first and then Ethereum.

好的。我们这里看到的是影响比特币价格的最基本因素：每年区块链新发行的供应量是16.4万枚比特币。从ETF推出到我们完成这份报告的时间段里，你可以看到右侧的数据。同时你还能看到上市公司和现货ETF购买的比特币数量，它们一直是比特币的边际买家。

Yeah, sure. I mean, so what we look at here is the most basic drivers of Bitcoin's price, which is you have the new supply issued every year from the blockchain. It's 164,000 Bitcoin per year. And you can see it from the time ETF launched to the time we wrapped this report on the right. And then you have the number of Bitcoin being purchased by public companies and spot ETFs who've been the marginal buyers of Bitcoin.

这就是为什么我说当前不是加密原生驱动的市场，而是有其他实体参与。作为首席投资官，我可以告诉你复杂计算显示左侧数字大于右侧，这就是比特币价格上涨的原因。我在备忘录里强调过，这种趋势将持续。ETF的购买量会随时间增长。

This is why I said that this is not a crypto native driven market right now, that other entities are involved. And as CIO, I can tell you the complex math says that the numbers on the left are bigger than the numbers on the right. And that's why the price of Bitcoin went up. And the point I was making in the memo is this will persist. ETF purchases are going to scale over time.

历史上每个ETF的规模都会随时间扩大。所以比特币将持续面临供需失衡，这意味着现有持有者必须通过抛售来平衡这两栏数据。而他们只会在价格上涨时这么做。最终这些卖家会不愿抛售，我认为价格将因此飙升。

Every ETF in history scales over time. So we are gonna have this persistent supply demand imbalance in Bitcoin. That means that existing holders have to sell to make those two columns the same. And they'll only do that if the price goes up. And eventually those sellers will be unwilling to, and I think the price will skyrocket.

换个角度理解即将发生的事：回顾最后那张图表，在其他所有资产类别里，右侧数据都大于左侧。比如股票是60:40或75:25，债券是90:10。最终右侧必须接管左侧的功能，我认为在这个过程中价格会大幅上涨。

Another way to conceptualize what's going to happen. If you go back to that last chart, in every other asset, the columns on the right are bigger than the ones on the left. So in stocks, that's like sixty, forty, 75, 25 In bonds, it's like ninety, ten. So eventually those things on the right have to take over from the things on the left. And I think the price will go up substantially as they do that.

而在以太坊的幻灯片上，这个趋势实际上更加明显。要知道ETH的发行机制略有不同，但看这里：800万枚新ETH，现货ETF和上市公司购买了800万枚？这些可能是你理解比特币和以太坊长期前景唯一需要看的幻灯片。没错，换个角度说，目前已经...

And then on the ETH slide, the story is actually even more pronounced on ETH. Know the issuance of ETH is a little bit different, but if you look here, million new ETH, what, 8,000,000 purchases by spot ETFs and public companies. Again, these may be the only slides you need to look at to understand the long term outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Yeah. Just put that into perspective, there's been

自以太坊ETF推出以来，企业和ETP购买的新增以太坊供应量约为七倍，而比特币这一数字接近四倍。因此，以太坊在第三季度表现优于比特币并不令人意外——特别是考虑到以太坊ETF资金流和企业购买主要发生在今年第二和第三季度。当你仅从这两种资产的供需角度思考时，这一结果显而易见。当然还有其他市场因素，但核心原因很简单：正是这种基础经济学原理推动了价格上涨，并解释了为何以太坊在第三季度跑赢比特币。

something like seven times the new supply of Ethereum being bought by corporations and ETPs since the Ethereum ETFs launched, and for Bitcoin, that number is closer to 4x. And so there's no surprise, particularly because the ETF flows for Ethereum and corporate purchases happened in Q2 and Q3 of this year. There's no surprise that Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin in Q3 when you just think about it from a demand versus supply perspective for both of these assets. Of course, there's other market forces, but you just think about those things. It really comes down to simple economics of what drove the prices higher and why Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin in Q3.

有时候答案如此明显。马特，这些复杂计算的结果简直一目了然。感谢你作为首席投资官加入我们

Sometimes it's so obvious. The complex math is so obvious, Matt. Thank you for being the CIO and joining us

今天

today

为我们拆解这些复杂的数据。

to break this complex math down for us.

这正是我们的观点。

That's our point.

各位听我说——虽然我不想扫兴，打断这场高瞻远瞩的智慧盛宴，但我们得找点乐子。之前承诺过要讨论Polymarket。我想知道你们一年前是不是打过什么赌，或者关于这个平台有过什么争论。

Yeah. Guys, guys, listen. I hate I hate to to to rain on this, like, smart big brain zoom out party, but we need to have a little bit of fun and we promised we would talk about Polymarket. Okay. So and I wanna hear about you guys had some kind of bet or like some kind of battle about poly market a year ago.

快告诉我当时的具体情况，最后到底是谁赢了这场辩论？

Wanna know I wanna know what that was and who won the argument in the end.

是的。这次我要公开认错了，因为我曾非常确信大选后Polymarket的交易量和未平仓合约会断崖式下跌，并持续低迷直到下个选举周期。我这么认为是因为去年第三、四季度体育赛事虽占一定比重，但主导市场的其实是政治类合约，尤其在第一、二、三季度，当然第四季度也有些。当时我和Matt争论这件事，甚至在制定2025年预测时，我本想公开预言Polymarket不会完蛋。

Yeah. I will walk into the public circle of shame with this one because I felt very strongly that post the election, polymarket volumes and open interest were going to fall off a cliff and just continue to be there until the next election cycle. The reason I thought that was because sports were somewhat of a big piece of the volume and the open interest back in Q3 three and q four of last year, but it was predominantly politics, particularly in q one, q two, q three, and then, of course, some some in q four. And I just felt very strongly that was the case. And Matt and I were debating this, and I actually as we crafted our twenty twenty five predictions, I wanted to make that prediction publicly that Polymarket was not doomed.

我认为Polymarket是个了不起的产品，未来几十年都会存在且用户持续增长。但我当时坚信大选周期后使用量会大幅下滑。Matt持相反观点认为我错了，而事实证明确实是我判断失误。我们看到了很多...

I think Polymarket's an amazing product. Won't be here for many, many decades to come and will continue to grow in usage. But that we were gonna see a big drop in usage post, post election cycle. And Matt took the other side of that argument and thought I was wrong, and I, of course, was incorrect. We've seen a lot.

大家帮我大声告诉没听清的人——我举手认错！是我错了，Matt是对的。交易量保持住了。

Y'all say it louder for those who didn't hear me. Throw my hands up. I was wrong. Matt was right. Volume has maintained.

虽然确实有小幅回落，但2025年实际上在逐季增长。各市场的未平仓合约都保持在不错水平。体育类合约在Polymarket交易量和OI中的占比持续提升，这现象非常有意思。考虑到体育博彩的规模倒也不意外，但第三季度还有美联储利率决议（9月和7月）和比特币目标价这类类似看涨期权的预测市场也很活跃，这种玩法我觉得很有创意。

It's continually you know, it fell, of course, a little bit, but it's continued to grow actually in 2025 quarter over quarter. Open interest remains at decent levels across all of the markets. Sports is becoming an increasingly piece, an increasing piece of Polymarket's volume in OI, which I think is very, very fascinating. Of course, not super surprising when you think about how big sports betting's become. But you also have other big markets in poly market in q three, in terms of volume were around, fed interest rate changes in September and July, and then a few around Bitcoin price targets, which are kind of like call options, but pay price using prediction markets for I think is interesting.

Matt，关于这个话题，你除了刚才说的还想再炫耀点什么吗？

I don't know, Matt, is there any gloating that you wanna do on this topic beyond that?

不用了。你说得对。我90%收入来自Bitwise，10%来自和Ryan打赌赢的钱——这就是我的家庭经济学。Polymarket显然会长期存在。

No. That sounds right. I mean, I make about 90% of my income from Bitwise and 10% from winning bets with Ryan. So that's the home economics here. Look, I mean, I think Polymarket is obviously here to stay.

它将成为巨无霸。我认为它的重要性仍被大多数人低估。能看到它的发展真是太好了。

It's gonna be giant. I still think it's probably a bigger deal than most people give it credit for. And yeah, it's been wonderful to see.

让我问大家一个问题。你们如何投资预测市场？因为我想我们都同意这个观点，对吧？预测市场会持续存在并且规模会很大。但具体要怎么投资呢？

Let me ask you guys a question. How do you invest in prediction markets? Because I think we all agree in this statement, right? Prediction markets are here to stay and they're gonna be big. How do you invest in them though?

这是个很好的问题。Robinhood就有预测市场功能，虽然他们可能不称之为事件市场。Robinhood作为上市公司，这部分业务虽小，但显然他们正试图进入这个领域。

It's a great question. I mean, Robinhood has prediction markets. I don't think that's exactly what they I didn't call them event markets perhaps. But, you know, Robinhood is publisher of the company. They have this small part of what they do, but they're obviously trying to get into the game.

预测市场还有基础设施层。如果考虑哪些加密用例会创造价值，预测市场作为最成功的加密用例之一，价值自然会积累在两个地方：一是作为结算基础的底层区块链（比如Polygon和以太坊），二是信息提供商——Chainlink和UMA就是Polymarket的两家数据供应商。毕竟要确定世界大赛冠军这类信息，需要技术手段将结果反馈给Polymarket。

You also have the infrastructure layer for prediction markets. So if you think about where value will for some of these crypto use cases, and if you think about prediction markets being one of the most successful crypto use cases, naturally, the the two places value could accrue are the underlying blockchain for which these bets prediction markets settle, which, of course, is Polygon and then by way, Ethereum. And then you also have perhaps the information providers and Chainlink and UMA are two of the information providers to Polymarket. Right? Because if you want to know who's going to win the World Series or who wins the World Series, you need some piece of technology to relay that information back to Polymarket.

当然，这就是预言机网络或信息提供商的作用。我认为参与Polymarket增长有多种方式，说不定还会有关于Polymarket自身的预测市场呢。

And, of course, that is the Oracle network that's doing that or the information providers. I think there's different ways to get exposure to the growth of Polymarket. There may even be a Polymarket about Polymarket. I mean, I'm not sure.

说得对。我很喜欢Chainlink这个例子。人们看待Polymarket时常犯的错误是认为它可能增长五倍，但实际上可能有千倍的增长空间。

I think that's right. I really like the Chainlink example. I think the mistake people make when they look at something like Polymarket is thinking it could be five times as big. I think it probably could be a thousand times as big. Right?

这才是我们讨论的规模级别。零售投资者可能将投入传统股票债券的资金规模转向预测市场，它甚至可能蚕食期权和期货市场的巨大份额。虽然不确定能否实现，但确实存在这种可能性。像Chainlink这样的基础设施，若需求增长千倍，局面就非常有趣了。

I think that's the scale you're talking about. I think you could find retail investors allocating as much to poly market as they do to traditional stocks and bonds. I think you could see it tackle huge chunks of the options infrastructure and the futures infrastructure. There's no guarantee it will do that, but I think it could do those things. And so infrastructure plays like Chainlink, if they have a 1000X increase in demand, I think that's where it gets interesting.

我也认同Robinhood这个切入点，Rob，这确实是个好思路。

I liked the Robinhood. That was another good idea, Rob.

补充一点，这些平台还发行过自己的原生代币。最近有传言称Polymarket和Kalshi正凭借巨额融资竞相推进代币生成活动（TGE），这是我个人特别关注的点，也是促使我参与预测市场的重要原因。我和Ryan马上就要开启空投狂欢了，准备大干一场。

Just add that there's also the native tokens of these platforms that they've ever launched them as well. That's the big rumor that Polymarket and Kalshi are racing towards the TGE with their massive raises lately. So that's all I'll just add that that's something I personally have my eye on and also a big driver of me wanting to participate in prediction markets. And we're going we're going to airdrop stuff. We're going to degen stuff, Ryan and I, right now.

你知道的，我们在外面聊得更多。

You know, we're talking more outside.

美国用户被限制使用Polymarket这么久真是太遗憾了，对吧？嗯，确实糟糕。

What a shame for US users who are restricted from using Polymarket for so long. Right? Mhmm. Yeah. Terrible.

我刚试了下能否使用，结果收到提示说'检测到您位于美国地区，服务不可用'。唉，就这样吧。

I just checked to see if I can use it, and I get a message that says, you appear to be located in The US, and I'm not available to use it. So, you know, just Well,

咱们再深入看看这些内容。这样，你可以通过我们这边渠道参与，我们会展示部分市场行情。节目结束前，我想知道大家对几个精选市场的预测选择。准备好了吗？开始吧。

let's let's let's look at some them more. Well well, you know, you'll you can come through our our our side, and we'll show you some of the markets. And to wrap up the episode, I wanna know what you guys are picking in a few markets that I have chosen. Alright? So here we go.

2028年总统大选胜率：JD·万斯29%领跑，加文·纽瑟姆23%，AOC·科尔特斯9%，巨石强森4%，伊万卡·特朗普2%，卡玛拉·哈里斯2%，塔克·卡尔森2%。那些2%和1%的选项太搞笑了。

Presidential election winner 2028. Leading candidate is JD Vance at 29%, Gavin Newsom, 23%, AOC at 9%, Dwayne The Rock Johnson, 4%, Ivanka Trump, 2%. Kamala Harris, 2%. Tucker Carlson, 2%. The two and one percents are hilarious.

名单里还有埃隆·马斯克。勒布朗·詹姆斯居然只有1%的支持率，伙计。但勒布朗这1%的押注金额竟高达1500万美元，太不可思议了。

These are the Elon is in there. LeBron James. LeBron, 1%, man. $15,000,000 of volume on the LeBron 1%. Incredible.

哇，金·卡戴珊，他们用了她那张‘让网络瘫痪’的照片作为那个的图标。

Wow. Kim Kardashian, and they used her break the Internet picture as the icon for that one.

难以置信。等等，等等，在你们说之前——

Incredible. Wait. Wait. Before before you guys say,

不过LG，你得解释一下你的观点——你不需要赌注达到100%。你不需要，而人们现在做的就是这个，对吧？他们不是在赌勒布朗·詹姆斯真的能当总统，而是在赌公众可能会因为他的某条推文或社交媒体上的某些事，认为这个可能性比现在更高——这种情绪转变我们见得越来越频繁了。

though, LG, you got to explain your take on that you don't need to the bet to go to 100%. You do not that's and that's what people are doing here. Right? They're not betting on LeBron James actually winning president. They're betting on the fact that the public could think that it's more likely than it is right now because some tweet that he does or something happens in social media that leads sentiment to change very quickly, which we keep seeing this occurring more and more often.

没错。所以这就是我的保守观点——这些市场的秘密在于，这些结果像股票一样交易。对吧？几乎存在对等的‘是’与‘否’两方。因此，你要在‘巨石强森当选’这个结果上盈利，根本不需要他真的在2028年胜选。

That's right. So that's that's my conservative and more the the kind of secret of of these markets to me is that these outcomes trade like stock. Right? So there's equal sides almost to a yes and a no equation. And as a result, all you all you would need for, to make profit on, like, The Rock in this outcome is, like, you don't need him to win in 2028.

你不需要等三四年才见分晓。你只需要那个概率从你买入时的4%上涨——现在买入‘是’的成本是4美分。如果涨到8%，你就翻倍了。

You don't need to wait three or four years for that to happen. All you need is for that percentage to go from 4%, which you can buy it at. So it's cost 4¢ to buy the yes. You just need that. If it goes to 8, you've doubled your money.

你的‘是’份额价值就翻倍了。所以只需要巨石强森发推说‘我想当总统’，这个概率就会因为人们FOMO式跟涨到20%，然后你就能卖出——你可以设置限价单，比如8%、12%或16%时自动卖出，根本不需要等到结果揭晓。

You've doubled the value of your share of yes. So all you need is the rock to tweet, I'd like to be president one day. And that's and that that'll go to 20% just on the FOMO of people buying that, and then you can just sell you can set limit you limit orders on this. So you can just set that limit at eight or 12 or 16%. You don't need it to resolve.

所以在我看来，这才是真正赚钱的方式，不同于体育博彩——虽然有些博彩网站会在结果概率上升时让你提前兑现（当然他们会抽成）。但在这里，你不需要这样。对吧？这不是非全即无的结果。

So that's that to me is how you actually can make money on these as opposed to sports betting. Although some sporting some sports bet sites will give you allow you to cash out your bet as that outcome gets more likely at, like, a a discount for them. But this in this case, you you don't need that. Right? It's not an all or nothing outcome.

这就是我要指出的全部内容，我就是喜欢这么玩。总之，各位，2028年总统选举赢家。这些选项中哪个才是正确的选择或划算的买卖？而且你可以多选。

So that's that's all I was gonna point out is that's how I like to play them. Anyways Yeah. Gentlemen, presidential election winner 2028. Which of these are which of these is the right buy or the good buy? And you can buy multiple.

对吧？再说一次，你可以每个都买，然后等上几年。

Right? Again, you can buy each one and just wait a couple years.

说来听听，瑞恩。我有我的选择，但你先说。如果你说金，如果你说金，我可能会...我可能会受不了。

Let's hear it, Ryan. I got my picks, but you go first. If you say Kim if you say Kim, that may be I I may lose it.

听着，我是个真人秀粉丝，我一直关注着。我也喜欢《勇敢者游戏》和巨石强森，所以我很纠结。但我想我们三四年后还会回到这里讨论。

Look. I am a I am a reality TV fan. I do keep up. I also love Jumanji and The Rock, so I'm torn. But I I guess we'll be back here in four years or three years.

我认为会是JD·万斯。我知道这符合这个市场的预期，但我真的认为是JD·万斯，我的备选是皮特。

And I it'll be JD Vance. I know that aligns with this market here, but I actually think it'll be JD Vance and my backup call would be Pete.

哇，我会站在这些交易的对立面。这样我们两边都有流动性市场了，瑞恩。我们可以大展拳脚。我认为这些冷门选项里存在价值。

Wow. I would take the other side of those trades. So we have a liquid market on both of those, Ryan. We can go to town. I think there's value in the outliers here.

所以我会选择2%的乔什·夏皮罗，还会选择任何姓特朗普的人——2%或3%的伊万卡和小唐纳德。这些似乎被低估了。然后在民主党这边，我认为是夏皮罗，或者可能是像杨金这样的人。我会看跌这个市场的领跑者。

So I would take Josh Shapiro at 2%. I would take anyone with the last name Trump at 2% or three percent, both Ivanka and Donald Junior. Those seem undervalued. And then, yeah, on the Democratic side, I think Shapiro and then maybe like a youngkin or something. I would fade the leaders in this market.

我觉得这两个都不太可能是正确答案。

I don't think either of those are gonna be it.

好吧，我喜欢这个。这些也都是不错的选择。

Okay. I like that. Those are good things too.

4美分押在摇滚上。为什么不呢？对吧。

4¢ on on the rock. Why not? Right.

是啊，来吧。

Yeah. Come on.

来吧。哦，太棒了。好的。我们会用步枪筛选其他选项，这样就可以锁定2025年最高票房电影了——主要因为我们讨论过这个。目前领先的是《善良的坏女巫》，支持率41%。

Come on. Oh, that's great. Okay. We'll we'll get a rifle through the other ones so we could wrap Highest grossing movie 2025, mainly because we talked about this. The current leader is wicked for good at 41%.

有孩子的人都会明白为什么《疯狂动物城》和《我的世界》电影能上榜。而尚未上映的《阿凡达3》以7%的支持率成为另一个有力竞争者。各位，你们觉得哪部会成为票房冠军？

Anybody who has children, will know why Zootopia and Minecraft movie are up there, And Avatar three, which has not been released, is the only other serious one at 7%. Guys, what's it gonna be? Highest grossing film?

我觉得《善良的坏女巫》还有59美分的上涨空间。这对我来说是个容易的选择。

I think there's 59 free cents on Wicked for Good. That seems like an easy one for me.

我同意。我同意。你们为一部续集或第二部电影争取到了感恩节首映周末档期，这很可能是去年票房最高的电影。这似乎是理所当然的。

I agree. I agree. You got a a Thanksgiving opening weekend for a sequel or part two of what was likely, I imagine, the highest gross movie last year. It seems given.

是啊。这可能是目前金融领域最划算的交易了。

Yeah. That might be the best trade in finance right now.

到年底就是2.5倍的收益，对吧？这就是你需要的全部。对吧？你现在以41%的价格买入，最终以100%的价格套现。

That's a two and a half x by the end of year. Right? That's all you need. Right? It's at 41% that you're cashing out at a 100.

对吧？所以你赚了2.5倍的钱。这做不到。你大概

Right? So you're making 2 and a half 2 and a half times your money. Can't do that. You probably

在比特币上做不到。2.5美元。

can't do that at Bitcoin. $2.50.

是的。就是这样。没错。这就是你需要的。对。

It's Yeah. That's it. Yeah. That's what you would need. Yeah.

是啊。我需要一个多元市场来实现这个。嗯。那么——谁会——哪件事会先发生？《魔法坏女巫》成为票房冠军，还是比特币年底涨到2.5美元？

Yeah. The I need a poly market for that. Yeah. What's what who what's gonna what's gonna happen first? Wicked I grossing film or Bitcoin $2.50 by end of year?

我等不及要剪辑Matt说的那段话了，那可能是当前金融界最棒的交易。而且人们得听完这整期节目才能发现他说的...是啊。

I can't wait to to clip Matt saying that might be the best trade in finance right now. And and for people to have to listen to this entire episode to find out that he Yeah.

他们得等二十五分钟。太狠了。没错。

They gotta wait twenty five minutes. Wicked. That's right.

没错。

That's right.

好的。最后还有几个问题。

Okay. A couple a couple last ones.

我们会把它发给

We'll send it to

我们的合规团队，就为了捉弄他们。对。好的。

our compliance team just to mess with them. Yes. Okay.

2025年推出的ETF。我注意到三季度报告里，你们把莱特币和卡尔达诺列入了Bitwise的投资组合，占比百分之十或三十。但2025年推出Pepe币ETF的概率只有7%。这个概率有可能提高吗？

ETFs launching in 2025. I noticed in in the q three report, guys have Litecoin and Cardano in there as as Bitwise, like, investment tens or or thirties as as part of portfolio. But the Pepe ETF in 2025, 7% chance. Any chance that goes higher for the Pepe coin.

是的，是的。特伦特，说到合规性，不能谈论任何正在进行的备案

Yeah. Yeah. Trent, speaking of compliance, can't speak to any active filing that

那个哦。

that Oh.

但我们

But We

没有

do not

没有正在进行的佩佩备案。

have an active Pepe filing.

但我们确实没有正在进行的佩佩备案，而且我认为这个会归零。我会很震惊看到。首先，任何ATP要启动，政府必须重新开放。所以你可以把这个和政府开放市场结合起来看，然后你就能开始真正地，你知道，获得一些对你有利的好机会。

But But we do not have an active Pepe filing, and I think that I think that this one's going to zero. I would be shocked to see. First of all, for any ATP to launch, the government has to reopen. So you kinda have you could parlay this with the government opening market and see kinda you know, then you start to really, you know, have some nice odds in your favor.

太棒了。很难比佩佩组合押注做得更好。我不会试图超越瑞安

Awesome. It's hard to do better than a a Pepe parlay. I'm not gonna try to come in over Ryan

关于那个。

on that.

佩佩、伊万卡，邪恶的赌注。你们是100比1的赔率。他们得等四年才能...是的，你今年年底能拿到前两个，但之后要等三年，只能指望巨石强森或伊万卡能坚持到底。

Pepe, Ivanka, wicked parlay. You A 100 to one ratio. They got to wait four years for Yeah. You get the first two at the end of the year, but then you're wait three years, gotta hope the rock or Ivanka just just locks in there.

乔，这也很棒。OG，我太爱这个了——我们关停了DJM播客，不知道你们知不知道，OG之前每周做两期DJM播客，我们把他拉来这个节目，所以他更投入这边。现在突然之间，这节目快变成DJN秀了。什么？我就是爱死这转变了。

Joe, this is good also. OG, I love that we we we we we shut down the DJM podcast, which I don't know if you guys know, but OG was running a DJM podcast twice a week, we brought him over to this show, and that's why he's more involved with this show. And now all of a sudden, this show is turning into the DJN show. What? I just love it.

这太

It's so

我们聊了那么多高智商的金句。我们讨论过法案在国会通过的事，杰。你怎么能说这是DJ风格？听着。你听好。

We talk so much smart gold stuff. I we talked about bills passing a congress, Jay. How could how could you accuse this of being DJ? Listen. The listen.

一千倍可能就是预测市场的规模。对吧马特？你说过这个领域会爆发式增长。谁知道呢——搞不好两年后，所有财经播客都会讲预测市场。这是完全有可能的。

A thousand x could be a poly market. Right? Matt, you said that that this could grow so much. So who know who know for all we know, in in two years, every every finance podcast will be about prediction markets. That's for all we know.

事情就会这样发展。对吧？

That's what's gonna happen. Right?

当然。确实有可能一路下跌。好吧，

Sure. Could be all the way down for sure. Alright,

伙计们。你们是第一批听到这个消息的人。等等，刚才说什么来着？什么是最好的？

guys. You heard you heard it here first. Wait. What was it? What was the what was the best?

哦，对了。目前最划算的交易绝对是Wicked Wicked for good。先生们，非常感谢你们再次来到节目。我们很快会再聊，非常期待下一期节目。到时候看看市场情况如何。

Oh, yeah. Wicked Wicked for good is the best best trade possible right now. Gentlemen, thank you so much for coming back on the show. We'll talk again very soon and excited for for that next episode. We'll see where we're at with the market.

各位以及还在收听的听众们，专业会员快去查看那个新投资组合。非专业会员也去看看，感受一下错失恐惧症。它真的价值连城。先生们，我们很快会再聊。

You guys and anybody who's still listening, pro members, go check out that new portfolio. Non pro members, go try and look at it and have some FOMO. It's really worth a lot. And, gentlemen, we'll talk to you again very soon.

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永远不要投入超出承受能力的资金。

Never invest more than you can afford to lose.