彼得·纳瓦罗正加倍推行关税政策

目前，我们正经历着我国历史上最动荡不安的政治时期之一。

Right now, we are living through some of the most tumultuous political times our country has ever known.

我是戴维·雷姆尼克，每周在《纽约客》广播节目中，我将与科里·布克、南希·佩洛西、莉兹·切尼、蒂姆·沃尔兹、凯坦吉·布朗·杰克逊、纽特·金里奇、小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪、查理曼大神等众多思想家一起，试图理清当前发生的一切。

I'm David Remnick, each week on the New Yorker Radio Hour, I'll try to make sense of what's happening alongside and thinkers like Cory Booker, Nancy Pelosi, Liz Cheney, Tim Waltz, Ketanji Brown Jackson, Newt Gingrich, Robert f Kennedy junior, Charlemagne the god, and so many more.

所有这些内容都在《纽约客》广播节目中，无论你在何处收听播客都能找到。

That's all in the New Yorker Radio Hour wherever you listen to podcasts.

彭博音频工作室。

Bloomberg Audio Studios.

播客。

Podcasts.

广播。

Radio.

新闻。

News.

我始终信任总统。

I always trust in the president.

他下的是三维象棋。

He's playing three-dimensional chess.

你可以有自己的观点。

You can have points of view.

你有时会赢。

You win some.

你有时会输。

You lose some.

但我始终相信他的判断。

But I always trust his judgment.

彼得·纳瓦罗，经济学家，白宫贸易顾问，也是为特朗普总统入狱的人。

Peter Navarro, economist, White House trade adviser, and the man who went to jail for president Trump.

确实如此。

Yes, indeed.

今天早上，我刚从联邦监狱走出来。

This morning, I did walk out of a federal prison.

你会信任谁来继续这一议程？

Who would you trust to continue this agenda?

你选J。

You got J.

D。

D.

万斯担任副总统，还有马可·卢比奥。

Vance as the vice president and Marco Rubio.

那将是一张很棒的票。

That would be a great ticket.

来自《彭博周末》，这里是米歇尔·胡森秀。

From Bloomberg weekend, this is the Michelle Hussein Show.

我是米歇尔·胡森。

I'm Michelle Hussein.

特朗普政府的新年开局可谓跌宕起伏。

It's been a dramatic start to the new year for the Trump administration.

首先，美国扣押了委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗，并宣称美国至少在现阶段将接管该国。

First, the seizure of Venezuela's leader Nicolas Maduro and saying The US will be running that country at least for now.

接着，关于收购格陵兰的讨论再次兴起，而格陵兰是丹麦的一部分，也是北约盟友。

And then renewed talk of acquiring Greenland, which is part of Denmark, a NATO ally.

考虑到格陵兰的矿产资源和委内瑞拉的石油，这一切都再次表明，美国的贸易政策与外交政策如今已高度一致。

Given Greenland's minerals and Venezuela's oil, all of this is another demonstration of just how acutely aligned US trade policy and foreign policy now are.

但美国国内也正酝酿着贸易议题中一个非常重要的方面。

But there's also a really important aspect to the trade story that is bubbling at home in The US.

这涉及与彼得·纳瓦罗的对话，他是可能对唐纳德·特朗普关税政策影响最大的人，多年来一直伴随在他身边。

And it's part of this conversation with Peter Navarro, the man who has probably influenced Donald Trump on tariffs more than anyone else a man who's been at his side for years.

目前，政府正等待最高法院就去年关税的法律依据作出裁决。

Right now, the administration is waiting for the Supreme Court to have its say on the legal basis for last year's tariffs.

如果白宫败诉，其影响将十分重大。

And if the White House loses, the implications are considerable.

因此，请在聆听时牢记这一点。

So keep that in mind as you listen.

在委内瑞拉事件发生前，我曾在华盛顿与纳瓦罗交谈，但他看待世界的方式，对于理解特朗普圈子的思维逻辑至关重要。

Navarro and I spoke in Washington before the Venezuela developments, but the way he sees the world is a crucial insight into how the Trump circle thinks and why.

纳瓦罗博士，欢迎您。

Doctor Navarro, welcome.

感谢您参与我们的对话。

Thanks for being with us.

很高兴能与您交流。

Great to be with you.

我想从我们与总统的渊源开始聊起。

I wondered if we could start with the origins of your bond with the president.

您是什么时候第一次见到他的？

When did you meet him for the first time?

这要追溯到2006年，当时我写了后来被称为‘中国三部曲’的第一本书。

It goes back to 2006, when I wrote the first book in what would be my China trilogy.

这本书名为《即将爆发的中国战争》。

This was a book called The Coming China Wars.

当时，这被广泛视为夸张之词。

And at the time, it was widely viewed as hyperbole.

如今看来，它读起来就像一份政府报告。

Right now, it reads like a government report.

基于我的研究，我分析了21世纪初中国所采用的经济模式。

And basically, based on my research, I had parsed the Chinese economic model, the prevailing view in the early 2000s.

当中国加入世界贸易组织后，开始向全球倾销廉价制成品，当时普遍认为这仅仅是依靠廉价劳动力。

As China had joined the World Trade Organization, it was beginning to inundate the world with their dump manufactured products was that it was simply cheap labor.

而我的分析表明，情况远不止如此，我后来称之为‘七种致命的贸易霸权手段’，即中国通过政府高额补贴、知识产权盗窃等方式，系统性地拆解全球经济。

And what my analysis showed that was a lot more than that, things I would eventually call the seven deadly mercantile ascend, which is to say that China set about taking the world apart using things like high government subsidies, intellectual property theft,

本质上就是不公平的贸易行为。

Unfair trading practices essentially.

这些

The

包括整个国有企业体系在内的方方面面。

whole state owned enterprise, the whole gamut.

因此，我花了几年时间研究这个问题，并出版了《成为中美战争》。

So I had spent several years doing research on that, published Becoming China Wars.

然后在2011年，特朗普总统接受了一次采访。

And then in 2011, President Trump was doing an interview.

他们问他最喜欢哪些关于中国的书。

And they asked him what his favorite books on China were.

我的书名列前十。

And mine was on the top 10 list.

于是，我给他发了一封感谢信。

So, I sent him a note of thanks.

我们之间进行了书信往来。

And we exchanged correspondences.

虽然是打印的信件，但每封都会附上手写的便条。

There'll be typed letters, but it'll always put a handwritten note in it.

这就是这一切的开始。

And that how that how that began.

当他和梅拉尼娅乘自动扶梯下来并宣布时，我给他发了封信，说：嘿，你需要什么吗？

And when he went down the escalator with Melania, and declared, I sent him a note, say, Hey, you need anything?

他们在2016年联系了我。

And they called me in 2016.

我原本只是打算去纽约待几天。

I was supposed to go out to New York just for a couple of days.

我在那里见到了他。

And I meet him there.

那事儿挺搞笑的。

It was it was pretty funny.

我坐进一辆黑色SUV的后座，对吧？

I get into this black SUV in the back seat, right?

我们正准备去机场，登上他的飞机，前往他那些著名的集会现场。

And we're getting ready to go to the airport and get in his plane to go to a rally case whose famous rallies.

他坐到前排，说：嘿，鲁珀特，最近怎么样？

And he gets in the front seat and he's going, hey, Rupert, what's going on?

就好像他在跟默多克说话一样。

It's like he's he's talking to Murdoch.

然后他挂断电话，回头问：‘那是谁？’

And then he hangs up and he looks at back and goes, who's that?

因为他以前从未见过我。

Because he'd never seen me before.

于是我自我介绍了一下，事情就这样发生了。

And I introduced myself and that's kind of how it happened.

所以你们建立了联系。

So you bonded

非常友善。

very kind.

你们本质上是因为对中国的态度而建立联系的，后来中国成了他在首次竞选总统时的重要口号。

You bonded over China, essentially, your views on China, and then China became a big rallying point for him in his first in his first run for the White House.

我想了解一下你的观点是如何演变的，因为你以前是民主党人，对吧？

I want to understand something about how your views evolved because you used to be a Democrat, right?

你以前常说，保护主义不仅对美国，而且对全球经济都会造成严重危害。

You used to talk about how bad protectionism would be not only for The US but the global economy.

嗯，你这里把几件事混为一谈了，因为历史上，民主党人才是保护主义者，他们主张保护美国工人阶级免受不公平贸易的侵害。

Well, you're conflating a few things here, because historically, Democrats were the ones who were protectionists, who were in favor of basically defending the American working class against unfair trade.

在我们共和国的历史上，一直有着长期保护本国制造业的传统。

And we have in our history of this republic, a very long history of defending our manufacturing base.

如果你回溯到第一任财政部长亚历山大·汉密尔顿，他写过一本关于制造业及其保护必要性的惊人著作。

If you go back to Alexander Hamilton, first Treasury Secretary, He wrote a a a very stunning book about manufacturing and the need to protect it.

林肯是个主张关税的人。

Lincoln was a tariff man.

麦金利是个主张关税的人。

McKinley was a tariff man.

亨利·克莱是个主张关税的人。

Henry Clay was a tariff man.

我的意思是，所有这些著名人物都是如此。

I mean, all of these famous figures.

直到1913年，美国政府的财政收入完全依赖关税收入。

And up until 1913, The United States actually funded its government entirely through tariff revenues.

我不知道你是否知道这一点。

I don't know if you knew that.

然后我们通过了所得税法，逐渐转向了其他方式。

And then we had passed the income tax and kinda shifted away from that.

我和老板之间常开的一个玩笑是：谁最先看出了中国的问题？

And one of the running jokes that boss and I have is like, who figured the China thing out first?

当然，是他看出来的。

And of course, he did.

因为如果你回溯过去，上世纪80年代他曾接受过奥普拉·温弗瑞的一次著名采访。

Because if you go back, there's a famous interview with him and Oprah Winfrey back in the 80s.

当时他谈的不是中国，而是日本，说它们如何通过不公平贸易将我们拆解。

And he wasn't talking about China, but he was talking about Japan and how they were taking us apart with unfair trade.

他当时说的每一句话，如今都完全适用于中国模式。

And everything he said back then would then fit the China model.

关于我思想的演变，我第一次接触到中国经济发展模式是在泰国当和平队志愿者的时候。

Now with respect to my evolution of thought, my first exposure to kind of the Chinese economic model was when I was in the Peace Corps in Thailand.

让我感到惊讶的是，在亚洲的几乎每个地方，商业都是由中国人经营的。

And what was fascinating to me is that virtually everywhere you went in Asia, the commerce was run by Chinese.

那时候就已经这样了吗？

Even then?

那是在中国加入世贸组织之前。

It's before China, before China joined the WTO.

哦，那是因毛泽东的饥荒政策而离开中国的海外华人。

Oh, Well, this was the Chinese diaspora who had left because of Mao's starvation and famine policies.

所以，时间快进到我在加州大学尔湾分校教商业学生的时候，他们都是全职工作的，对吧？

So you fast forward to I'm teaching at the University of California, Irvine business students who are fully employed, right?

他们晚上和周末来上课，我注意到他们正在失去工作。

They come at night and on the weekends, and I'm noticing they're losing their jobs.

我在想，这里到底发生了什么？

I'm thinking what's going on here?

这大约是2003年。

And this was circa 2003.

有趣的是，这发生在中國加入世界貿易組織兩年後。

And curiously, two years after China joined the World Trade Organization.

于是我深入调查，发现所有线索都指向北京。

So I looked into this and it's like all roads led to Beijing.

我开展了这项研究项目。

I do the research project.

我意识到，嘿，这是作弊。

And I realize, hey, this this is cheating.

这正在摧毁我们的制造业基础，于是我继续了这项研究。

It's devastating our manufacturing base, and I would continue that research.

那么请带我们回到现在，因为你曾在特朗普总统第一任期时在他身边。

So bring us up to the present day then because you were at president Trump's side in the first term.

你曾为他入狱。

You went to jail for him.

所以明确地说，我入狱是为了捍卫宪法和宪法规定的权力分立。

So to be clear, I went to prison in defense of the constitution, the constitutional separation of powers.

基本上，国会在1月国会山事件后所采取的行动，是一场旨在罢免总统并确保他再也不能参选的政治派系斗争。

Basically, what Congress did in the wake of the January on Capitol Hill was engaging a partisan effort to unseat the president and make sure he never ran for office again.

我想知道这在多大程度上改变了你，因为读到你对监狱生活的描述时，我注意到你详细记录了周围那些微不足道的琐事、真正的刻薄行为——比如扣押药品、缺乏新鲜水果和蔬菜。

I wonder how much it changed you because I'm struck reading your account of your prison days, how much you notice and document all the small pettiness, really, the meanness that you see around you, the withholding of medicines, the lack of fresh fruit and vegetables.

你是否看到了一个不同的美国，而这影响了你的政治观点？

Did you see a different America which has informed your politics?

没有。

No.

没有。

No.

我从小家境贫寒。

I I grew up poor.

我就是在那样的环境中长大的。

I grew up in that milieu.

我只是说，监狱根本没有改变我。

I just then it prison didn't change me at all.

是我改变了监狱。

I changed prison.

是我改变了那个地方。

I changed that place.

是我改变了那个制度。

I changed the system.

我进去是为了坚持原则，捍卫宪法。

I went in there to defend the constitution on principle.

我没有借酒消愁，而是把自己变成了一个调查记者，揭露了一起50亿美元的丑闻。

And instead of crying in my beer, I turned myself into an investigative reporter and covered a $5,000,000,000 scandal.

自从我出狱以来，我已经解决了这起丑闻，这算是一个相当了不起的成就。

And since I've been out, I've solved that scandal, and that's that's a pretty good achievement.

所以，是囚犯改变了我。

So prisoner changed me.

我改变了它。

I changed it.

而在这段时期，你一直担任他的贸易顾问。

And now you've been his trade counselor and adviser through through this period.

目前中美之间的贸易关系如何？

How's the relationship between The US and China on trade going now?

帮我们理解一下。

Help us understand it.

听好了，中美关系仍在进展中。

Look, it's a work in progress, the relationship with China.

我经历过第一任期。

I am a veteran of the first term.

我花了数月之久，与当时的美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱特希泽共事，他是这个国家最伟大的爱国者和思想家之一。

I spent months and months and months with then United States trade representative Robert Lighthizer, one of the great American patriots and thinkers in this country.

我们与中国谈判达成了一项非常全面的贸易协议。

And we negotiated with the Chinese a very, very comprehensive trade deal.

这是一件非常了不起的事，对中美双方都会非常有利，因为它将彻底改革中国的模式。

It was an amazing thing that would have been really good for China as well as The United States because it would have completely reformed Chinese model.

他们当时同意了。

And they agreed to it.

但在最后一刻，习近平说不。

And then at the last minute, Xi Jinping said no.

好吧，这一点非常重要：我们花了整整一年多时间谈判，本可以达成一个完美的协议。

Okay, so that was that's like really important to understand that we went for a long over a year negotiating what would have been a perfect deal.

但最后，他们却背弃了这个协议。

And then at the end, they backed out on that.

随后，我们签署了一个被称为‘简版协议’的协议。

And then we signed what was called the skinny deal.

那是2020年1月，特朗普政府时期签署的，但他们并没有遵守这个协议。

And that was in January 2020, the last year, the Trump administration, and they didn't abide by that.

因此，我们面对中国时始终存在的问题是：你总是会怀疑，他们是否只是在拖延时间，即使签了协议，他们会不会再次反悔。

So the problem that we always face with China is that you always kind of wonder whether they're just stretching you out, whether even if you sign a deal, they're going to re trade it.

你是美国政府的一员，所以我才想了解目前的行动是什么。

You're part of the US administration, which is why I want to understand what the actions currently are.

例如，特朗普总统会见了习近平，最终达成了一项降低部分关税并暂停加征关税的协议。

For example, President Trump meets Xi Jinping, and essentially, you end up with a deal which lowers some tariffs and which suspends heightened tariffs.

因此，实际上形成了一年期的贸易停火协议。

So there's effectively a year long trade truce.

这符合你们避免被中国拖垮的使命吗？

Is that keeping with your mission to avoid death by China?

所以你现在主导这个话题。

So you're bearing the lead here.

目前的关税税率是多少？

What's the current tariff rate now?

我所指的是降低了一些关税，

Well, the ones I'm referring to are the lowering of some of

但在降低之后，当前的税率是多少？

But what's the current rate after they've been lowered?

嗯，有些商品是10%，对吧？

Well, it's 10% on some things, right?

总共是多少？

Total to know?

对中国商品的关税接近50%。

Tariff on China is almost 50%.

好吧，让我再说一遍。

Okay, let me say that one more time.

接近50%。

It's almost 50%.

所以当你说到我们降低了税率时，其实只是从更高水平降到45%。

So when you say that we lowered the rates, we only lowered them down to 45%.

我们取消了为遏制芬太尼流入而征收的部分进口关税。

We took But on kind of imports imposed to curb fentanyl flows.

并且曾有一项暂停措施

And and there was a suspension

你必须理解。

You have to understand.

互惠关税。

Reciprocal tariffs.

你必须理解。

You have to understand.

由于第一任期的301条款行动，原本就存在一个基础关税，这是乔·拜登保留下来的为数不多的政策之一，我们在此基础上增加了互惠关税，该政策至今仍然有效，此外还有20%的芬太尼关税，我们仅将其降低了10%。

There was a baseline tariff because of the section three zero one actions in the first term, one of the few things Joe Biden kept that we added the reciprocal tariff to, which is still in place, and a 20% fentanyl tariff, which we only lowered by 10%.

因此，这些是对中国强有力的关税。

So those are robust tariffs on China.

事实上，我们正在大力鼓励欧洲采用与我们相同的关税水平，原因很简单：当总统设置关税以保护美国免受中国不公平行为的影响时，中国在这里的销量下降了，那它会把产品卖到哪里去呢？

And in fact, we are strongly encouraging Europe to adopt exactly the same level of tariffs that we adopt for the simple reason that when the president puts up tariffs to defend America from Chinese cheating, China can't sell as much here, where does it sell it?

倾销到欧洲，倾销到墨西哥。

Dumps it in Europe, dumps it in Mexico.

就在最近的新闻中，墨西哥确实采取了我所建议的行动，在我国贸易团队的敦促下，墨西哥参议院通过了对华50%的关税。

Now, as we are talking just in the recent news, Mexico did exactly what I'm suggesting did so at the urging of our trade team, which is to say the senate in Mexico passed 50% tariffs on China.

他们这么做是因为中国原本要销往美国的商品被倾销了。

And they did it because China was dumping goods which would otherwise go in America.

欧洲应该效仿美国和墨西哥的做法，而且他们正在这样做。

And Europe should follow The US and Mexican lead, and they are doing that.

他们正在这样做。

They're doing that

在钢铁领域。

in steel.

我注意到了。

I see that.

这是

That's the

其他国家的利益。

interest on other countries.

但我相信，当你审视美中关系时，你一定能看出对比：当特朗普总统刚上任时，我们最终举行了一次会议，会后他谈到两国之间建立了极大的尊重，以及他多么荣幸地看到习近平主席批准了购买大豆和其他商品。

But I'm sure that you can see why looking at The US China relationship, one can see the contrast between when President Trump first arrived and we end up with a meeting, after which he talks about having enormous respect between the two countries and how honored he is that president Xi has has authorized the purchase of soybeans and other goods.

所以情况有所缓和。

So there is a softening.

不。

No.

没有任何缓和。

There's no softening.

是吗？

Is that?

那怎么会呢？

How is that?

缓和体现在哪里？

How is the softening?

特朗普的外交奏效了。

Trump diplomacy works.

人们，尤其是左派所不理解的是，特朗普与习近平、普京、土耳其的埃尔多安等全世界视为暴君的人保持开放沟通，这实际上是有作用的——他们确实是暴君，但他们是国际舞台上必须进行谈判的一部分。

And the great thing that that people, particularly on the left don't understand, is that it's functional for president Trump to have open lines with Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Erdogan in Turkey, all of the people that the world regards as vicious dictators, which they are, but they are part of the world stage, where you have to negotiate.

所以你认为我们对中国怀有极大的尊重。

So you come to we have a enormous respect for China.

他指的就是这个。

That's what he's talking about.

你对中国怀有极大的尊重吗？

You have enormous respect for China?

我对中国人民怀有极大的尊重。

I have enormous respect for the Chinese people.

明白吗？

Okay?

中国人民正处在中共的压迫之下。

The Chinese people are under the boot of Chinese Communist Party.

如果中国想要摆脱其损害全世界（包括欧洲）、导致金融体系巨大不稳并引发对华强烈不满的重商主义经济模式，它只需要做一件简单的事。

If China's gonna escape its own mercantilist economic model, which is screwing the world, including Europe, and causing tremendous instability in the financial system and great anger towards China, it needs to do one simple thing.

它需要通过为人民提供社会保障网来降低中国的储蓄率。

It needs to lower the savings rate in China by providing a social safety net for its people.

一个共产主义社会主义国家竟然没有为人民提供养老金或医疗保障，这真是非同寻常。

It's extraordinary that a communist socialist country has no protections with respect to pensions or health care for its people.

这真是非同寻常。

That's extraordinary.

而中国人的方式是，让共产党成员变得富有。

And instead what the Chinese do, because that's the way they roll is they let the communist party members become rich.

他们让一小部分企业家阶层变得富有。

They let a smaller slice of the entrepreneurial class become rich.

我知道。

And I know

然后其他所有人，我知道怎么

And then everybody else I know how

你对这个问题的感受如何。

you feel about this.

你已经在《耶》中写过这件事了。

You've written about it in Yeah.

连续出版的书籍。

Successive books.

我想知道，是否还有其他人优先考虑与中国做生意，并且以某种方式影响总统，让你感到不安。

I wonder if there are other people who would prioritize doing business with China who have influence over the president in a way that makes you less than comfortable.

黄仁勋成功推动了NVIDIA H200芯片对华销售。

Jensen Huang has managed to get NVIDIA H200 chips being sold to China.

你对此感到安心吗？

Are you comfortable with that?

这还在进行中。

That's a that's a work in progress.

这是一场持续的对话。

That's an ongoing dialogue.

我认为人们必须明白，世界各国之间始终存在持续的谈判。

I I think people have to understand that there's a constant negotiation going on with countries around the world.

我的意思是，中美关系非常复杂。

I mean, and and the China relationship is a very difficult one.

我认为你漏掉了中国如何将稀土和关键矿物武器化这一部分，而这些矿物是全球几乎所有高科技产品的重要组成部分。

I think you left out the part about how China has weaponized rare earth's critical minerals, which are a critical part of virtually every high technology product that's made around the world.

中国现在正在欧洲、印度和美国展示实力，基本上在说：我们要做我们想做的事。

And China has been flexing its muscles now, in Europe, in India, in The United States, saying basically, we're going to do what we want.

如果你试图阻止我们，我们就切断你们的关键矿物供应，因为他们认为自己垄断了这些资源。

And if you try to stop us, we're going to take away your critical minerals, because they have what they think they have a monopoly on it.

但这只是时间问题。

But that's just a matter of time.

美国的创新将迅速消除这种武器化行为。

American innovation is going to quickly wipe away that weaponization.

那么在此期间你们该怎么做呢？那就是搞外交。

So what do you do in the meantime, you do diplomacy.

如果有人想把这称为软弱，那他们就不懂这盘棋局。

And if people want to call that soft, then they don't understand the chessboard.

所以，你是否能接受中国购买专门用于下一代人工智能的芯片？

So are you comfortable with China being able to buy no videos that specifically the next generation AI.

芯片不是我的领域。

Chip's not my lane.

我明白了。

I see.

但它却为美国公司带来了大量竞争。

Except it enables a lot of competition then with US companies.

让我告诉你的观众这一点。

Let me let your viewers know this.

我是唯一三位从特朗普第一届政府初期到末期一直担任高级顾问的人之一。

I'm one of only three people who served as a senior adviser in the first Trump administration from the beginning to the end.

这发生是因为我坚守自己的领域，而船舶不是我的领域。

That happened because I stay in my lane, and ships are not my lane.

彭博投资峰会将于三月重返纽约，届时银行业、资产管理与私募资本领域的顶尖声音将探讨重塑金融的力量。

Bloomberg Invest returns to New York on March, where the sharpest voices across banking, asset management, and private capital will discuss the forces reshaping finance.

在彭博全球新闻室和彭博终端数据的支持下，这一旗舰峰会将涵盖从人工智能驱动的颠覆和央行政策转变，到私募信贷中新兴的风险与机遇等方方面面。

Powered by Bloomberg's global newsroom and data from the Bloomberg terminal, this flagship summit will cover everything from AI driven disruption and central bank policy shifts to the emerging risks and opportunities in private credit.

立即加入讨论并注册访问 bloomberglive.com/invest。

Join the conversation and register today at bloomberglive.com/invest.

从您的著作《夺回特朗普的美国》中，我知道您非常了解在一个不同人拥有影响力的政治环境中工作的感受，以及您如何担心会偏离核心议程。

I know from one of your books, Taking Back Trump's America, that you know exactly what it's like to be part of an administration where different people have influence and how you worry about losing sight of a core agenda.

您在书中基本上强调，人们需要记住为美国工人阶级提供服务。

You write essentially that people need to remember about delivering for working class Americans.

那么，在中期选举临近之际，美国民众是否有可能不理解您现在试图推行的议程？

So are there risks to the American people not understanding the agenda that you're trying to deliver now that we're in the run up to the midterms?

当然有，我的一部分工作就是解释我们继承的是怎样一团糟的局面，我们正在如何应对，以及需要多长时间才能看到特朗普政策的成果。

Of course, and part of my job is to explain exactly what we've inherited, which is a mess, how we're addressing it, and how long it's going to take to see the fruits of the Trump policies.

这里的模式是

The model here

您认为需要多长时间？

How long do you think it's gonna take?

嗯，这里的模式是从20世纪70年代吉米·卡特时代的滞胀，过渡到罗纳德·里根总统的执政时期。

Well, the model here is the transition from Jimmy Carter in the 70s era of stagflation to the presidency of Ronald Reagan.

卡特就像拜登-哈里斯一样，由于其政策造成了严重的通胀和衰退问题。

Carter, much like Biden Harris, created a tremendous problem with both inflation and recession because of their policies.

如果你想想拜登为我们设定的局面，那是一个滞胀情景。

If you think about what Biden set us up for, it was a stagflationary scenario.

所以卡特为里根制造了同样的问题。

So Carter did the same for Reagan.

于是里根上台后，推行了放松管制、积极的供给冲击、减税，这些积极的供给冲击让经济做出调整，停止了卡特那种愚蠢的做法。

So Reagan comes in, does their deregulation, positive supply shock, does the tax cuts, positive supply shock makes makes adjustments stops doing stupid stuff like Carter did.

但这需要时间。

But it takes time.

而对于里根来说，时间耗尽了，因为在他上任两年后中期选举到来时，局面一片惨淡，民主党赢得了众议院，基本上使政府陷入瘫痪。

And for Reagan, the time ran out, because by the time the midterms rolled around two years after he assumed office, it was a bloodbath, and the Democrats won the House and basically paralyzed government.

但接下来的六年却非常美好，因为里根的政策终于见效，我们迎来了最繁荣的时期之一。

But the next six years were a beautiful thing because Reagan's policies took hold and we had one of the most prosperous times.

现在，我们理解这段历史，并努力确保自己不会陷入同样的困境。

Now, we understand that history, and we're trying to make sure we don't get caught in that same vice.

所以我们必须向美国人民清晰地解释。

So what we have to do is explain very clearly to the American people.

让我举两个例子。

Let me give you two examples.

等等。

Wait.

我想问你一个问题。

I I do wanna ask you this.

关于时间框架的这一点。

This point about the time frame.

所以这是一项正在进行的工作，你需要说服美国人并为此努力。

So work in progress, you need to convince Americans and work hard on that.

在2028年的选举中，你会信任谁来继续这项议程？

2028 in that election, who would you trust to continue this agenda?

这不该由我来说。

It's not for me to say.

这也不是我的职责。

And it's not my that's not my job.

我的意思是，你有J.D.万斯担任副总统，还有马可·卢比奥。

I mean, you got JD Vance as the vice president and Marco Rubio.

例如，这将是一个绝佳的组合。

That would be, for example, a great ticket.

谁在选票的顶端？

With who at the top of the ticket?

J.D.会在那里。

JD would be there.

但马可已经说过，如果J.D.参选，他不会挑战他。

But Marco's already said that if JD runs, he he wouldn't wouldn't challenge him.

我非常喜欢这些人。

I love these guys.

我一直很钦佩马可，从2016年就开始了。

These are I always admired Marco back in 2016.

我一直觉得，那些在台上的人，那16位共和党人中，他就是那样的。

I always thought he was like, oh, the people on that stage, the 16 Republicans.

我一直觉得，除了唐纳德·特朗普之外，他是最出色的一个。

I always thought he was the sharpest tool in the shed besides Donald Trump.

对吧？

Right?

但在各方面，他根本没法跟特朗普相提并论。

He he couldn't hold a candle to Trump with respect to everything.

但他确实是个非常能干的人。

But but he's a he's he's really a very capable person.

但我觉得你在信息传递上说到点子上了，因为大西洋彼岸你这边的人会密切关注这场国会选举，因为2018年我们输掉了众议院。

But I think you're on to some here with the messaging because people on your side of the The Atlantic are gonna be watching that election for congress very carefully because what happened in 2018 because we lost the house.

我在我的书里写过这件事。

I write about that in my book.

当时犯了一些错误，我希望我们不会再犯同样的错误。

There were some mistakes made that I hope we don't make again.

它变成了一场闹剧。

It became, let's say a crap show.

这样说更容易理解，因为民主党开始不断发出传票和启动弹劾程序。

That's a little easier way of saying it because the Democrats just started issuing subpoenas and impeachments and all that.

我们不想再重蹈覆辙。

We don't wanna repeat that.

但这就是我们面临的局面。

But here's what we're up against.

我们一进来，鸡蛋价格就飙升到天价。

It's like we come in, and we got egg prices off the charts.

牛肉价格也涨到了天价。

And we got beef prices off the charts.

好吧，这太糟糕了。

Okay, it's like, that's terrible.

这简直就像美式早餐的煎蛋配汉堡，再典型不过了，对吧？

It's like, it's as American as you can scrambled eggs in hamburgers, right?

对于鸡蛋，我们已经能够迅速大幅降低鸡蛋的价格。

So with eggs, we've been able to dramatically reduce the price of eggs almost immediately.

我们是怎么做到的？

How did we get there?

这里政治运作的方式真的很有趣。

This is really interesting how politics works here.

民主党上台后，针对鸡群，宰杀了八千万只鸡。

It's like the Democrats come in and with chickens, they kill 80,000,000 chickens.

literally，乔·拜登因为对禽流感反应过度，屠杀了八千万只鸡。

Literally, Joe Biden slaughters 80,000,000 chickens because he overreacts to an avian flu thing.

同时，在牛肉方面，他减少了放牧地，因为他们想吃大豆汉堡。

At the same time, with beef, he reduces grazing land because they they're like they wanna eat soy burgers.

但拉索尔医生

But doctor Rasol

那么关于你的政策，难道没有问题吗？

And questions then about your policy, aren't they?

您提到了牛肉，我意识到特朗普总统正是由于普通美国家庭预算压力，才降低了牛肉、番茄、咖啡和香蕉的关税。

You mentioned beef, and I'm conscious of the fact that president Trump reduced tariffs on beef, tomatoes, coffee and bananas exactly because of the pressures on the household budgets of ordinary Americans.

所以这难道不是承认，贵政府采取的一些措施——包括您所设计的关税政策——确实对普通美国人造成了伤害吗？

So that's an acknowledgment, isn't it, that some of the actions the administration has taken, including on tariffs, of which you are the architect, they have played a role in hurting ordinary Americans.

对于我们自己不生产的商品，我完全支持取消关税。

I'm totally supportive of no tariffs on products we don't make here.

我们自己不生产咖啡。

We don't make coffee here.

那么为什么

So why did

会发生这种情况？

that happen?

毫无意义。

No sense.

但事情确实发生了。

It happened.

我们现在会做出调整。

And now we make adjustments.

这就是我们所做的。

That's what we do.

我们会做出调整。

We make adjustments.

但如果你看看供需的弹性经济学，就像我们并不生产咖啡，对吧？

But if you look at the economics that are elasticities of supply and demand, it's like, we don't make coffee, right?

所以我们也不生产巧克力。

So we don't make chocolate.

因此在短期内，我们会降低这类商品的价格，我们可以进口一些牛肉，但不久前油价刚刚跌破每桶60美元，这正是我们第一任期结束时特朗普离任时的油价。

So we lower the price on that in the short run, can, we can import a little beef, but we just had oil drop below $60 a barrel, which is where it was when we left office the first term for Trump.

好吧，拜登把油价推高到了大约每桶75美元，这不仅增加了你取暖和开车的成本，还提高了农作物肥料的价格。

Okay, Biden jacked that price up to about $75 And so what that does, it not only increases cost of heating your home and driving your car, it increases the cost of fertilizer for crops.

因此食品价格上涨，运输成本也随之增加

So food prices go up and increases the cost of transportation

为了将食品运送到市场。

for food actually to market.

制造业岗位已连续七个月下降。

Manufacturing jobs have declined for seven straight months.

好吧，我们来谈谈这个。

Well, let's shift to that.

让我们想想这个问题。

Let's think about that.

好吗？

Okay?

这是我的工作。

That's my job.

我是负责贸易和制造的高级顾问。

I'm the senior counselor for trade manufacture.

我不知道你觉得这会持续多久

I don't know how long do you think it's gonna how long

你觉得需要多长时间？我可以确切地告诉你。

do you think gonna take to I can tell you that with exactitude.

好的。

Okay.

明白吗？

Okay?

让我告诉你它是如何运作的。

Here's how it works.

不，你需要多长时间才能

No, how long is it going to take for you to be

能够？好吧，让我为你快速算一笔账：要在本国建立一家新工厂，准备好生产产品，从而创造新的制造业岗位，大约需要两到三年。

able Well, let me let change me just work you through the quick math for you to have a new factory in this country, ready to produce things and therefore have new manufacturing jobs, that's about two to three years.

在此期间，你所看到的是，无论是海外还是国内，都有数万亿美元的投资正在涌入，这些投资目前正在设计工厂并为建设做准备。

Now, what you see in the interim is this, we're having literally trillions of dollars in investment come in from abroad as well as domestically, which is as we speak, beginning to design those factories and get ready to build them.

那么，接下来会发生什么？

Now, what happens then?

建筑业岗位将大幅增加。

You have a boom in construction jobs.

这是第一阶段，但你不会立即看到制造业的改善。

That's the first phase of that, but you won't see any improvement in manufacturing right then.

但一旦工厂建好，制造业岗位就会出现。

But then once you build the factories, that's when you see the manufacturing jobs.

罗马不是一天建成的，中国花了二十五年时间逐步拆解了我们。

So Rome wasn't built in a day China took us took it's going on twenty five years now where they've taken us apart.

他们带走的不只是工厂，还有我们的供应链。

It's not just the factories they took, they took our supply chains.

我们不能像挥动魔杖一样瞬间解决，事情不是这样的。

And we can't like wave a magic wand, it doesn't work like that.

但如果你只是看看发展趋势，这将是一件美好的事情。

But if you simply look at the trajectory, it's gonna be a beautiful thing.

你认为在中期选举前，向美国人传达‘这仍是一个进行中的过程，民主党给我们留下了一个糟糕的遗产’这样的信息，足够有说服力吗？

Do you think it's going to be enough of a message to be saying to Americans in the run up to the midterm, it's a work in progress, the Democrats left us a really bad inheritance?

你不觉得你可能需要做更多吗？

Don't you think you might have to do more

我们已经在做更多了。

We are doing more.

我可以向你保证。

I can assure you.

让我给你一个具体的例子。

Let me give you one concrete thing.

提高最富有群体的税收，比如40%的税率，你觉得怎么样？

What about increasing taxes on the wealthiest, like a 40% tax rate?

这是史蒂夫·班农支持的举措，而你很了解他。

That's something Steve Bannon, who you know well, is in favor of.

你会支持这个吗？

Would you support it?

我在第一任期内就支持过这个方案。

I supported that back in the first term.